Pow!

G’day, students. Ensure your emergency rolls of TPaper are safely padlocked in your lockers, then proceed to the parking lot to be hosed down by the bleach trucks. They’re waiting. After installing your N95s, safety glasses and nitrile gloves, we can begin. Full agenda today, so enjoy! Nothing to worry about here.

The Biden bulls:
That Trump dude is some smart. As you know, he started to whack away at Joe Biden months ago, using his son Hunter and the Ukrainian caper to destroy the only Dem with the creds to unseat him. Didn’t work. Led to impeachment proceedings, actually. And now Biden has risen from the ashes, phoenix-like, and Mr. Market is smiling.

As the votes were counted after Super Tuesday’s 14-state slugfest, showing Biden trouncing Bernie and his Sandernistas, Dow futures soared by hundreds of points. The primary voters did what the Fed couldn’t, which was to restore investor confidence. Maybe the virus is still here, but the commies have been dealt a big blow. Sanders was the most virulent anti-corporation, pro-tax and socialistic person ever to get that close to a presidential nomination.

Now the Democratic machine has kicked into gear. Today Bloomberg was the final Biden conquest, so you know what November will bring. The MAGA army vs the Centre. America may not have lost its mind, after all.

Bankers cut big, T2 frets:
Right on cue the Bank of Canada offed its key interest rate Wednesday. No surprise there. But the bite was big – half a point, to match the Fed. Another cut expected in April, too. Ours is the latest central bank to reduce the cost of money, shooting stimulus in a global effort to counter the economy-shrinking impact of Covid-19. Expectations are US rates will drop a full 1% this year, and we should follow in time. Savers will be crushed. Investors ultimately rewarded. The real estate news will be sad (more below).

Here’s what they told us:

COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.

It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected. The drop in Canada’s terms of trade, if sustained, will weigh on income growth. Meanwhile, business investment does not appear to be recovering as was expected following positive trade policy developments. In addition, rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter.

In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target. While markets continue to function well, the Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.

So much for restraint.

The big loser is Mr. Socks. The federal Libs are in a pickle. Oil prices have collapsed into the $40 range, which just fuels the Wexiteers and underscores our energy sector failure. The FN goofs are still at it, and Dog-only-knows what Ottawa conceded to during those four days of talks in Smithers. It came out yesterday they didn’t even discuss the blockades. The virus has yet to land in Canada in any meaningful way, and the Cons are about to pick a snappy leader with political capital – who’s called for an October election. So the CB’s dramatic action is an admission the Canadian economy is pre-recessionary, while we sink into a voracious new deficit (which Millennials don’t care about). Did I miss anything?

What do Biden and McKay tell us about society? Suck it up, snowflakes. The Boomers are still in charge.

By the way, the yield on 5-year Canada debt is now eight-tenths of one per cent. Pow.

When Demand meets Supply:
This week we got a buck-ninety-nine three-year mortgage. This blog forecast that a fiver would be available during rutting season also at 1.99%. And it’s surely coming after the big BoC chop (plus another one in a few weeks) for the reasons spelled out above.

Already cheap rates and a paucity of listings are propelling housing markets back into bubble territory. Sad news, given the fact urban real estate is becoming the preserve of the wealthy. But the combination of cheap loans and a fearlessness on the part of house-lusty borrowers, plus owners afraid to list, is relentless. In the GTA sales are up 45%, listings down 33% and houses are 16% less affordable as a result. The average is now $910,000 and for detacheds it’s $1.485 million.

Even in tax-riddled Vancouver, in the province of Horganistan, sales are up 45%, available properties reduced by 21% and prices up slightly. Despite all of the market-killing initiatives introduced there by the Dippers, cheap money and raging hormones have broken through.

Well, this will get worse unless the virus runs amok and shuts down open houses. After a federal election in which every party came out with dumbass policies to stimulate more demand for real estate (which was already beyond the grasp of average folks) what do we expect?

        

Okay, kids, that’s it for today. Back outside for a re-rinse.  Tomorrow we’ll focus on root veggies and field surgery. Have a nice night.

 

196 comments ↓

#1 Andrew on 03.04.20 at 12:38 pm

Behind the curtain, the Democrats were working hard to get Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar to exit by Super Tuesday so Biden would take their votes. They agreed and endorsed Biden. That boosted Biden’s fortunes. Ms. Warren would have no part of that for she saw herself as a viable contender. Bloomberg seems to be on an authoritative ego trip. Bloomberg flailed on the debate stage when he actually had to step out from behind the reputational facade. All the bogus advertisements endorsing the Green Agenda failed with his 2-litre bottle of soda ban. He assumed he could just buy the White House. Thank God his ego got the best of him. So the Billionaire Bloomberg on Wednesday dropped out of the Democratic presidential race and plans to endorse former Vice President Joseph R. Biden. Only when he began to see his reputation was being destroyed did he change his mind.

And many in the party are beside themselves with Sanders on the ticket. The best way to stop Bernie was to push Biden up but they are not happy with him either. They still look to the rules that if Biden can stop Bernie on a first ballot, then everyone is free to vote for Hillary. This plan may be the final straw that breaks the back of the Democratic Party.

#2 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 12:40 pm

I feel like bashing my head on the table from all the Covid-19 conspiracy theories I heard from people today.

Biden creeps me out. So does Trump. America is creepy (some really good people, though).

RE … speaks for itself.

I do need a rinse!

#3 Housing a right? on 03.04.20 at 12:54 pm

The history behind commodification of re in lower mainland

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/02/13/Gov-Real-Estate-Vancouver-Housing-Unaffordable/

#4 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 1:00 pm

So we get Biden to destroy Sanders and then Trump to destroy Biden. Sounds good.

With two geriatrics going at it, its a safe bet that the VP position is the most coveted spot on the ticket now. Look for Hillary to insert herself because that worked so well the first time.

#5 Ubul on 03.04.20 at 1:03 pm

Sanders was the most virulent anti-corporation, pro-tax and socialistic person ever to get that close to a presidential nomination.

The establishment hopes to be saved by Biden, who is the embodiment of the system that created Trump and Sanders. Good luck with that.

#6 Dogman01 on 03.04.20 at 1:03 pm

“It wasn’t illegal for Hunter Biden to take that job. But Hunter Biden himself has admitted it was “poor judgment.” It’s reminiscent of nothing so much as the $675,000 Hillary Clinton took for giving speeches to Goldman Sachs: not illegal, but a kind of soft corruption that voters find loathsome.”
“these are huge sums and represent a kind of DC back-scratching and influence-trading that voters dislike. Getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for doing basically no work is a rare gift, and the cost of accepting that gift or of letting a family member accept it is it can be used against you in a future election.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020-presidential-election/2019/10/16/20916760/joe-biden-hunter-biden-democratic-debate-trump-2020

Now I am pretty sure the US electorate is over the Biden family overseas activities, in addition it seems pretty much tradition that what America’s political elite do outside of America is A-OK (Reminds me of how the Romans would stay on the right side of corruption when in Rome but once sent to the provinces as a Governor, the intention was to get rich by any means).

Larry Berman makes the Sanders beating Trump case:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/berman-on-the-path-to-president-bernie-sanders-pack-your-alternatives-1.1399280

#7 jess on 03.04.20 at 1:07 pm

bernie? biden ? or is it the new models coming forth

walmart health
At “Walmart Health,” which has a separate entrance next door to a massive Walmart supercenter, patients can see doctors for routine checkups and ongoing treatment of chronic illnesses, such as diabetes and heart disease, even if they lack health insurance. They can also get lab work, x-rays, dental care, behavioral health counseling, eye and hearing exams, and access other services. The bill for an annual checkup for an adult is $30 without insurance, an eye exam is $45 and dental exams cost $25. Therapy sessions are $60.
Walmart (WMT), America’s largest retailer, opened the facility in January. It’s only one of two in the country. The first, in Dallas, Georgia, another exurb of Atlanta, opened in September.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/business/walmart-health-care-clinics-amazon-cvs/index.html

Amazon (AMZN), Walmart’s top rival, is also trying to crack into the health care industry. In 2018, Amazon bought mail-order pharmacy PillPack. Amazon joined with Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) and JP Morgan (JPM) to attempt to give the three companies’ more than one million employees and family members better health care choices and lower prices.
However, Walmart believes its thousands of stores give it a leg up over its online rival. Walmart’s health care strategy “takes advantage of big boxes and big parking lots close to people,” CEO McMillion said.

==================

#8 What's Next on 03.04.20 at 1:12 pm

I’m curious to see if the GTA housing market this spring will be even more intense then spring 2017. Grabbing my popcorn…

#9 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 1:13 pm

MF, is this you?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/meet-the-toronto-man-who-is-spending-dollar400-a-month-to-live-in-a-backyard-yurt/ar-BB10IS1x?ocid=spartanntp

#10 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 1:17 pm

#2 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 12:40 pm

I feel like bashing my head on the table from all the Covid-19 conspiracy theories I heard from people today.

————————–

Just mock them; it’s less painful. Stupidity is rampant.

#11 Wow and wow on 03.04.20 at 1:22 pm

Who could have forecasted all this two months ago?
How fast the world spins.
So what are your forecasts?
Heres mine
Roller coaster hang onto your hats.
I still think supply chain will be disrupted maybe you’re right a 6 month blip and then flip the switch and factories are up and running again.
Low interest rates will be crazy for home owners I have one year to go on my mortgage I wish I could lock in now. Or renegotiate.
The next few days will be interesting and then come BBQ session we will be printing t shirts that say I survived the Convid 19

#12 doug t on 03.04.20 at 1:24 pm

All aboard!
Hahahahaha
Aye Aye Aye Aye Aye Aye…
Crazy, but that’s how it goes
Millions of people living as foes
Maybe it’s not too late
To learn how to love and forget how to hate
Mental wounds not healing
Life’s a bitter shame
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’ve listened to preachers, I’ve listened to fools
I’ve watched all the dropouts who make their own rules
One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role
Mental wounds still screaming
Driving me insane
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train
I’m going off the rails on a crazy train

#13 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 1:24 pm

A secret meeting and confidential deal funded by Canadian taxpayers with 5 unelected guys who stole their titles from women leaders in the band. And it didn’t even address the main issue.

I mean that’s par for the course with Trudeau.

#14 COVFEFE-19 on 03.04.20 at 1:27 pm

“the Cons are about to pick a snappy leader with political capital – who’s called for an October election.”

“Math class is tough” — Teen Talk Barbie

#15 Bubble on 03.04.20 at 1:33 pm

Already cheap rates and a paucity of listings are propelling housing markets back into bubble territory.

——————————————

Respectfully Garth “back into bubble territory”. Did we miss out affordable pricing?

Perhaps “prices more stratospheric than they already were” would have been more appropriate ;)

#16 Andrewski on 03.04.20 at 1:43 pm

Seems like there’s a paucity of common sense out there!

#17 Piano_Man87 on 03.04.20 at 1:46 pm

“Sanders was the most virulent anti-corporation, pro-tax and socialistic person ever to get that close to a presidential nomination.”

I think you are forgetting about FDR. He created social security, enhanced union power, set maximum hours for workers, a minimum wage, reformed the banks, etc. Bernie is little more than a modern New Dealer. If anything, treating him like a massive communist just shows how much American politics has drifted to the right.

Medicare was initially brought in by LBJ for seniors, and it was intended to be extended down in age over succeeding years until it encompassed everyone. It just never happened.

Free tuition? Well the cost is astronomical in the USA. Academic inflation means getting a degree is no longer a potential option. It’s a must. No different than what K-12 used to be. Government funded baseline education for the masses.

Protecting the environment? Nixon brought in the EPA as a Republican. He was the last new dealer, and brought in things like consumer safety legislation. He was a Republican, too. Just shows again how much American politics have drifted to the right.

There is no Democratic Party, and no Republican Party in the USA. There is only one party – the business party, and the Dems and GOP are just factions of it. 2016 showed the DNC cares more about business than democracy. True colors.

Let’s not even get into the reports of voter suppression in black/latino neighborhoods in the bible belt that occurred yesterday.

#18 conan on 03.04.20 at 1:59 pm

the Cons are about to pick a snappy leader with political capital -Garth

If one could buy puts on the Conservative Party I would be loading up on them.

#19 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 2:00 pm

#10 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 1:17 pm
#2 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 12:40 pm

I feel like bashing my head on the table from all the Covid-19 conspiracy theories I heard from people today.

————————–

Just mock them; it’s less painful. Stupidity is rampant.

———————————————

One astute sleuth explained to me that they held the International War Game Olympics (or some nonsense like that) in Wuhan right before the Covid-19 outbreak.

Thus, he surmised, this virus was created and released by “the elites” to wipe out vast swaths of human population. The reason? Because we cannot feed all those people and it would be best to just kill them off.

#20 Tudval on 03.04.20 at 2:08 pm

The irony in the markets going up as Sanders fortunes are sinking, is that a healthy stock market will help Trump. So there’s the catch-22. The polls that favour Biden over Trump don’t matter at the moment. Wait until they go head-to-head, Trump is a much more abile debater. I think the only democrat candidate that could outsmart Trump in a face to face debate would have been Warren.

#21 COVFEFE-19 on 03.04.20 at 2:12 pm

Meanwhile, the Buffalostan government has announced it will be closing some provincial parks, converting others to trailer parks, and handing still others over to Indigenous groups. It says this won’t affect its plans to double tourism revenue in ten years.

Can’t make this stuff up.

#22 salmon arm rearend arm on 03.04.20 at 2:20 pm

Henry Wallace was closer

#23 WTF on 03.04.20 at 2:22 pm

My new Hero, aside from GT (obligatory MSU)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIG9ozEDPVg

#24 just snootin' on 03.04.20 at 2:25 pm

Borrow $1mil to buy a shack. Pay $20k interest only. Sell in 1 year for $2mil to bushy millenial and bank of Mom. Pay Gov their half. Clear $450k after costs.

This is the plan, right? If i do this for ten years I will have $4.5 million. I see no flaws. Where do I sign?

#25 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.04.20 at 2:26 pm

Knee jerk reactions from politically motivated central banks will solve little.

#26 Mr Canada on 03.04.20 at 2:30 pm

Sanders is a Marxist, not a democratic socialist. Warren will stick around to spite even though she landed third in her home state. Assuming Binden wins the nomination, rumours of a god forbid “Biden/Kamala Harris” Ticket. Ouch! Neo-cons like us are convinced at 78, Biden has early dementia, multiple speaking gaffs throughout this campaign, introduced his sister as his wife last night, and not many people know up to Super Tuesday, he did zero serious campaigning, no ad spend, no ground staff in most of the states up for grabs, and he disappears for hours (likely for a nap) and still won! The media ignores it. Any-body but Bernie. Sure beats Canadian politics.

#27 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 2:33 pm

CPC is polling 7 pts ahead of Trudeau this week. And all it took was Trudeau actually having to stay in Ottawa and address the crisis. The post mortem on the 2019 election showed Sheer was 25,000 votes away from flipping 25 seats. This was a lot closer than people think.

Now with a recession looming, he will be under a lot more pressure. His big spending budget is DOA. And Jagmeet might not like that.

A govt much weaker than it looks.

Maybe Mckay knows something the rest of us don’t.

#28 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 2:38 pm

#17 Piano_Man87 on 03.04.20 at 1:46 pm

Let’s not even get into the reports of voter suppression in black/latino neighborhoods in the bible belt that occurred yesterday.

——————————–

Your post was ok until it got all froot-loopy.

Do you have a legitimate news link for voter suppression?

#29 Blog Bunny on 03.04.20 at 2:38 pm

So kids panic about climate change and now panic about the virus. If the virus can significantly reduce the world population, that will solve the climate change problems. The CO2 emissions from China are already down. The mills and Greta should celebrate.

#30 Overheardyou on 03.04.20 at 2:41 pm

Personally, I’m glad the boomers are still in charge. Wisdom and experience comes with age. A generation that’s never suffered won’t know what are actually bad times and I’m a Millennial.

#31 reset on 03.04.20 at 2:59 pm

Over timer has been going off for quite some time. Us turkeys are done.

Nothing left but negative rates in the future. You will be punished for keeping money from recycling back into the economy. Huge inflation down the road, just another piece of the puzzle towards the global reset and the NWO.

#32 Howard on 03.04.20 at 3:00 pm

At this point anyone buying a Toronto condo as an investment (vs end users) is doing so in the knowledge that positive monthly cash flow is impossible. While prices have soared, rents in Toronto have been stagnant for 2 years and possibly veering downward. It’s the one potential bright spot in affordability, though it seems strangely difficult to find reliable, aggregated statistics on average market rents. Amateur landlords buying now are willing to eat the monthly loss in anticipation of big gains in property value. Either that, or they are foreign buyers simply purchasing Toronto condos as a store of value with no intention of renting them out. A vacancy tax is all but assured in Toronto’s near future.

#33 greyhound on 03.04.20 at 3:04 pm

“Ensure your emergency rolls of TPaper are safely padlocked in your lockers, then proceed to the parking lot to be hosed down by the bleach trucks. ”

Sounds like Mr Turner has successfully completed the Bachelor of Sarcasm degree, cum laude. Who knew?

#34 JacqueShellacque on 03.04.20 at 3:09 pm

“What do Biden and McKay tell us about society? Suck it up, snowflakes. The Boomers are still in charge.”

Biden was born in 1942, Garth. He isn’t a boomer, he’s older than they are. When a party that formerly stood for a broad working-class and minority coalition can’t find anyone born after WWII to lead them into an election in the 3rd decade of the 21st century, it means they end is near for them.

#35 JB on 03.04.20 at 3:17 pm

#26 Mr Canada on 03.04.20 at 2:30 pm

Sanders is a Marxist, not a democratic socialist. Warren will stick around to spite even though she landed third in her home state. Assuming Binden wins the nomination, rumours of a god forbid “Biden/Kamala Harris” Ticket. Ouch! Neo-cons like us are convinced at 78, Biden has early dementia, multiple speaking gaffs throughout this campaign, introduced his sister as his wife last night, and not many people know up to Super Tuesday, he did zero serious campaigning, no ad spend, no ground staff in most of the states up for grabs, and he disappears for hours (likely for a nap) and still won! The media ignores it. Any-body but Bernie. Sure beats Canadian politics.
…………………………………………………………
And this guy is better?

Parched eh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqlhUg8xFhE

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-slurring-stumble-white-house-anonymous-official-warning-book-a9194481.html

#36 Tom on 03.04.20 at 3:27 pm

The numbers don’t add up
– one side covid-19 only has effect very small amount of people. Only a tiny amount died and most of them were elderly or presick

.5% drop – can only be justified if massive deaths are occurring.

The CB are data driven so I guess the first point must be changing soon

#37 Steven Rowlandson on 03.04.20 at 3:37 pm

“In the GTA sales are up 45%, listings down 33% and houses are 16% less affordable as a result. The average is now $910,000 and for detacheds it’s $1.485 million.”

Next thing you know the market will hype $250,000 dollar luxury out houses and garden sheds and have the cheek to call them starter homes… I know ,I shouldn’t give the buggers any ideas.

#38 Marco on 03.04.20 at 3:46 pm

Sanders will win over Bidet. Ukraine is investigating Bidet.
Sanders will be next Prez of USA.

#39 ts on 03.04.20 at 3:56 pm

#24 just snootin’

“This is the plan, right? If i do this for ten years I will have $4.5 million. I see no flaws. Where do I sign?”

you can sign the line on the bankruptcy declaration – you don’t think the coming recession will hit the real estate market? Get real

#40 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 4:16 pm

#35 JB on 03.04.20 at 3:17 pm

And this guy is better?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-slurring-stumble-white-house-anonymous-official-warning-book-a9194481.html

—————————-

Oh yes, random interwebz clinical diagnoses. Guess that’s the last word.

Blackdog and Sold Out might want to weigh in as well. I believe from past posts that they are also certified interwebz clinical psychologists.

#41 Ed on 03.04.20 at 4:38 pm

These 1,000 point bounces are not a good sign. Something is wrong. I am not sure what is going on, but this market instability is not a sign of resilience, it is a sign of something going wrong. Healthy markets are stable markets and that’s not what we are seeing here.

Not sure it is a dead cat bounce just yet, but I do not feel it is the right time to be greedy based on my own risk appetite. Of course others will vary. Canadian banks barely moving ….

Don’t get too deep. The market oversold on inflated virus fears – something people are now understanding. – Garth

#42 Keyboard Smasher on 03.04.20 at 4:58 pm

DELETED

#43 The Wet One on 03.04.20 at 5:03 pm

Separate and apart from the goings on of recent days, I wish to raise a question with the readers of this blog and Garth.

What is the best descriptive measure of wealth that you’ve come across.

People talk about other people’s wealth all the time. Most of the time, it’s largely meaningless. Is the average doctor wealthy? The average lawyer? The exception lawyer? A hockey player? How much is wealthy? Etc.

I used to go by the rule of wealth = time. Your measure of wealth is how long you can live at your current standard of living. At some point, in part under your control, you are “financially free” and can live indefinitely on your accumulated funds and are thus “wealthy.”

I think that still works, but it isn’t helpful relatively speaking between different people with different asset profiles, though it is helpful to establish a baseline of what wealth is.

What better systems are folks here aware of or use?

Do tell.

I’d love to hear you chime in on this one Garth being the most or one of the most knowledgeable ones here.

In passing, I’ve come across the “wealth number” concept and that, in my view, has some merit (especially when trying to describe who is wealthier than who). It’s a bit loose, but workable and comprehensibly meaningful I think. It’s described here: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/everyone-has-a-wealth-number-what-s-yours-1.1324171

Thoughts?

#44 The Wet One on 03.04.20 at 5:04 pm

Just for the record, my wealth number is 5.

#45 MF on 03.04.20 at 5:15 pm

#41 Ed on 03.04.20 at 4:38 pm

I posted a few days ago a list of the biggest daily gains in the market. Top 3 were like 1929, 32 and 33…during the great the depression.

So no, it’s not a good sign.

#9 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 1:13 pm

Lol poor guy. Not me, unfortunately. If it was I’d be able to save thousands per month. Maybe that’s what he is doing. I wonder what his love life is like? I’m guessing not good…

MF

#46 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 5:42 pm

@#40 re: “Blackdog and Sold Out might want to weigh in as well. I believe from past posts that they are also certified interwebz clinical psychologists.”

Can you please stop with your obsession? It is creeping me out.

#47 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 5:53 pm

#45 MF on 03.04.20 at 5:15 pm

#9 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 1:13 pm

Lol poor guy. Not me, unfortunately. If it was I’d be able to save thousands per month. Maybe that’s what he is doing. I wonder what his love life is like? I’m guessing not good…
MF

——————————

Poor guy? Not at all! I have a small piece of property in the Chilcotin surrounded by Crown land. I love setting up a 16′ teepee and living there in September/October overseeing the river valley and 50km of view in three directions. Stove, cots, dogs, wildlife… not a road for 7 km.

Then disassemble, leave the poles there, and head home. Simple, comfortable, no maintenance, no vandalism. I’d never actually build anything permanent.

That alone is worth an 8 on WetOne’s scale.

#48 Interest rates on 03.04.20 at 5:57 pm

I read allot and even on the blog that interest rates are not normal. And eventually we have to go back to 5 percent normalized rates.
But from my viewpoint, these record low rates did not produce a booming economy nor run away inflation.
Could the new norm be 2 percent? And now we are cutting to produce more toilet paper.

#49 crowdedelevatorcoughz on 03.04.20 at 5:59 pm

I may smell better, but I am way more scary than my cousin.

#50 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 6:00 pm

#46 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 5:42 pm

@#40 re: “Blackdog and Sold Out might want to weigh in as well. I believe from past posts that they are also certified interwebz clinical psychologists.”

————————–

Can you please stop with your obsession? It is creeping me out.

————————–

But you seemed so knowledgeable. Thought you might appreciate another chance to demonstrate your intellect.

#51 Jager on 03.04.20 at 6:02 pm

The Wuflu provides cover for the coming global recession. It was on its way.

Further, whatever drove the dominant lenders in the repo market to risk avoidance (intolerable rate increases) in 2019 (hello Fed) is simply on a slow burning fuse. It boils down to true price discovery. i.e. What’s the true value of a given security in the event of a big fish sinking…2020?

In the end debt takes out every bloated asset class that it generated.

P.S. Support for “Sleepy Joe” this November will be slim to none by young progressives (socialists). He’s viewed as yesterdays elite insider.

#52 Deplorable Dude on 03.04.20 at 6:02 pm

#1 Andrew…” Ms. Warren would have no part of that for she saw herself as a viable contender. ”

Lol..no…’the Club’ needed her in there to take votes from Bernie. She stopped Sanders winning in Minnesota, Maine and Massachusetts. And she reduced his delegate count in Utah, Colorado, and California.

She will drop out any day now.

So it looks like Senile Biden vs the Trumpster.

Biden’s family need to step in and pull him. He’s making embarrassing gaffs everytime he opens his mouth. He confused his wife for his sister in his speech last night.

The man isn’t well.

#53 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

@#30 Overheardyou on 03.04.20 at 2:41 pm
Personally, I’m glad the boomers are still in charge. Wisdom and experience comes with age. A generation that’s never suffered won’t know what are actually bad times and I’m a Millennial.
___________________________________

what did the boomers ever suffer through?

#54 Camille on 03.04.20 at 6:15 pm

The other day I asked what would happen to real estate. Garth’s notes today are what I expected. Prices rise. Can you afford a house?
I looked at BMO conservative mutual funds yesterday. A 60/40 portfolio has yield about 2.5% gross. MER about 2%. So almost nothing to pay out after expenses. Net return averages 6%. Money paid out has to come from asset appreciation. I see it as returning your money. You need a lot of money!

#55 Steve on 03.04.20 at 6:18 pm

I’ve just come back from my trip to 3167. I have a time machine. A newspaper wrapped around my leg in a windstorm while I was in Coastal Kelowna. “Boomers still in charge for another thousand years” was the headline. I guess they had solved aging and death in 2027. I guess they were just genetically shaped to lead, and lead, and lead, and lead. They still had the same radio playlists going too. It was like nostalgia and formaldehyde had a baby. Thought I’d share the good news.

#56 Mathew Gibson on 03.04.20 at 6:19 pm

“What do Biden and McKay tell us about society? Suck it up, snowflakes. The Boomers are still in charge.”

Biden was born in 1942, Garth. He isn’t a boomer, he’s older than they are. When a party that formerly stood for a broad working-class and minority coalition can’t find anyone born after WWII to lead them into an election in the 3rd decade of the 21st century, it means they end is near for them.”

And McKay was born in 1965, so he’s Gen-X.

Neither of them is a Baby Boomer, not by birthdate, not by cultural touchstones.

Sigh. The voters, not the leaders. – Garth

#57 tom on 03.04.20 at 6:21 pm

CNN is now in action and justifying the rate drop – VP is putting on a show for the Americans.

No different up here with our counterparts.

Fear and ciaos will help put everyone is more debt as housing explodes. Only hope is that the virus is really deadly and causes major supply chain outages. Recession is the only thing that will keep real estate down now.

#58 crazyfox on 03.04.20 at 6:24 pm

What do Biden and McKay tell us about society? Suck it up, snowflakes. The Boomers are still in charge. – Garth

The millennial Singh might prop up T2 still, millennial’s could make a statement still and if Singh doesn’t, boomer Blanchet likely will. Mackay will have to wait, maybe the full 4 years. Yup.

And old Joe, do we even have an acronym for him? He was born during the war before the boom, he’s so old. :) But, he’ll do. I like Bernie and there is arguably far too much inequality and discrimination in the U.S. but Joe gets things done. Trump vs Biden, I’m buying popcorn if hoarders haven’t already emptied the shelves by now.

#59 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 6:25 pm

@#49 re: “But you seemed so knowledgeable. Thought you might appreciate another chance to demonstrate your intellect”

I didn’t look at the link and I don’t care to. Now, go away. Find another rat to play with.

#60 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.04.20 at 6:29 pm

#51 Deplorable Dude on 03.04.20 at 6:02 pm sez:

#1 Andrew…” Ms. Warren would have no part of that for she saw herself as a viable contender. ”

Lol..no…’the Club’ needed her in there to take votes from Bernie. She stopped Sanders winning in Minnesota, Maine and Massachusetts. And she reduced his delegate count in Utah, Colorado, and California.

She will drop out any day now.

So it looks like Senile Biden vs the Trumpster.”
——————————————————-
Perfect candidate for the puppet masters. Exactly the same as our situation.
——————————————————-

“Biden’s family need to step in and pull him. He’s making embarrassing gaffs everytime he opens his mouth. He confused his wife for his sister in his speech last night.

The man isn’t well.”
———————————————————-
Or maybe he’s from Kentucky?

#61 Richmond will be underwater by the year 2014 on 03.04.20 at 6:39 pm

I don’t understand all the panic about the flu test kits. Best thing at this point is to throw all the test kits into the ocean.
What is the point exactly?
Test kit says you have flu. Ok. You have been spreading it without symptoms for 2 weeks.
Who cares?
There’s no stopping it. We will all get sick and the vast majority of us will be fine.
Does it make sense to shut down planet earth? Wipe out retirement savings? Cause mass job losses, bankruptcies, foreclosures?
Wtf am I missing here?
Does everyone buy 6000 rolls of toilet paper at the beginning of flu season? I had no idea.

#62 Yukon Elvis on 03.04.20 at 6:41 pm

#51 Deplorable Dude on 03.04.20 at 6:02 pm

Biden’s family need to step in and pull him. He’s making embarrassing gaffs everytime he opens his mouth. He confused his wife for his sister in his speech last night.
The man isn’t well.
………………………………
He froze like a deer in the headlights when he was confronted by a Dairy Industry Protestor. His wife had to defend him. Trump will really put the stink on this guy.

#63 Leo Trollstoy on 03.04.20 at 6:43 pm

#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm
what did the boomers ever suffer through

Millennials

#64 april on 03.04.20 at 6:47 pm

#8 – don’t know about Toronto but according to Ross kay only 17% of homes for sale in Vancouver in the month of Feb sold. The real estate industry spreading untruths that sales went up by 40 something %… Their livelihood depends on deception.

#65 Flop... on 03.04.20 at 6:50 pm

After my post last night, Mrs Flop asked me if we are going to do anything different at the airport than usual, due to corona virus.

I said an emphatic no.

Knowing that my wife has phobias, we take one precaution when flying.

We go into the terminal shouting out “Samuel”.

We go through security and keep a keen eye out for Samuel L. Jackson.

If we don’t see him, we get on the plane.

Why?

Coz, you know, there’s gonna be snakes on the plane…

M45BC

#66 Retro Marxist on 03.04.20 at 6:53 pm

The capitalists living in Bridle Path and Rosedale are glad that interest rates are cut to artificially boost the economy.

#67 Yukon Elvis on 03.04.20 at 6:53 pm

A Ukrainian court has ordered an investigation into whether Joe Biden violated any laws when he forced the March 2016 firing of the country’s chief prosecutor.
The ruling could revive scrutiny of Hunter Biden’s lucrative relationship with an energy firm in that corruption-plagued country just as the former vice president’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination is surging after a lackluster start.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/ukrainian-court-throws-wrench-joe-bidens-2020-election-plans

#68 Tom on 03.04.20 at 6:54 pm

Is Canada overall economy driven by real estate? BOC and Federal govt decreased both the interest rate and stress test.

Is this industry too big to fail???

Is $1M+ the norm and that is now just a fact of life?

One of the biggest sectors is Condo and Townhouses…is the govt now going to step in and fix the massive insurance problem? No insurance..no mortgage….no Sell

#69 BobC on 03.04.20 at 7:08 pm

2000 – Y2K is going to kill us all.
2001 – Antrax is going to kill us all.
2002 – West Nile virus is going to kill us all.
2003 – SARS is going to kill us all.
2005 – Bird flu is going to kill us all.
2006 – Ecoli is going to kill us all.
2009 – swine flu is going to kill us all.
2010 – BP oil spill is going to kill us all.
2013 – North Korea is going to kill us all.
2014 – Ebola virus is going to kill us all.
2016 – Zika virus is going to kill us all.
2020 – Corina virus is going to kill us all.

Forgive me if I sit this one out.

#70 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 7:21 pm

#56 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 6:25 pm

I didn’t look at the link and I don’t care to. Now, go away. Find another rat to play with.

—————————–

You know how it is when you run from the cops and escape, but they actually know who you are?

You become their hobby.

#71 Upenuff on 03.04.20 at 7:30 pm

Wow, you could not write a better book on all the current happenings….. No wonder the Martians gave up on landing on this planet……

#72 akashic record on 03.04.20 at 7:37 pm

Globalization is pandemic incompatible.

#73 Canadian Superhero on 03.04.20 at 7:42 pm

Anyone buying in this week despite the volatility and potential recession ahead?

#74 crowdedelevatorcoughz on 03.04.20 at 7:45 pm

Ahem, ahh, (cough, cough!) do you mind if I just squeeze through and press the button for the 31st floor? I’ve got a long (cough!) ride up with you all today! Cough! Cough!
Ahh, ahhh, ahhh-chewwww!

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 7:51 pm

@#48 Sail away
Re Chilcotin country.

Best rafting trip I ever had was a 7 day Chilco Lake -Chilcotin river down to the Fraser river .
Awesome trip. 10 of us from all walks. New York financeer with his wife and kids. Some Germans. Coupla Ontario folks.
Late August.
Mostly class 2 and 3 rapids, but one day was class 4 and class 5….crazy.
The salmon were running, the nights were warm, Skeeters weren’t too bad at night. The frost was starting to knock them down.
The Perseides meteor shower was amazing as were the Northern Lights.
That trip was well worth the money.
I’d highly recommend it.

#76 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 7:51 pm

#62 Leo Trollstoy on 03.04.20 at 6:43 pm
#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm
what did the boomers ever suffer through

Millennials
——————————————–
lololololololol Luv it.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 7:53 pm

@#56 Barking Dog

Ya just cant avoid chasing the car tires can ya Barky…..

#78 Down and Out on 03.04.20 at 7:56 pm

Vince Lombardi’s if still alive take on the stock market this week “what the hell is going out here”

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 7:56 pm

@#52 Oh Boy
“what did the boomers ever suffer through?”
+++++

Incessant Millennial whining

#80 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 7:59 pm

@#69 I know what get away with, but don’t flatter yourself.

#81 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 8:05 pm

#69 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 7:21 pm
#56 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 6:25 pm

I didn’t look at the link and I don’t care to. Now, go away. Find another rat to play with.

—————————–

You know how it is when you run from the cops and escape, but they actually know who you are?

You become their hobby.

————————

Whoops, that came across wrong. My apologies.

This happened to me as a teen- suddenly the cops were everywhere needling me.

I enjoy needling you, but that’s the extent. Over from my end.

#82 Brian Ripley on 03.04.20 at 8:13 pm

“Savers will be crushed.” Garth

I have updated my 4 interest rate charts, here is the $CAD Yield Curve as of end of Feb:
http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

The 10yr less 2yr spread (purple dotted plot line) remained inverted for the 8th consecutive month with a 11 beep negative print (in 2019: JUL -6 bps, AUG -20 bps, SEP -19 bps, OCT -11 bps, NOV -13 bps, DEC -6 bps; in 2020: JAN -16 bps; FEB -11 bps).

Although the nominal plot of the TSX Real Estate Index is up, the Y/Y plot took a nose dive below the previous high.

In November 2006 it was 4 bps away from inversion and six months later in May, June and July 2007, the metric inverted and widened to negative 11 beeps and the TSX Real Estate Index tipped over into plunge-ville.

Hello Japanada

More Charts at chpc.biz

#83 Bill Puffle on 03.04.20 at 8:20 pm

Global stock markets and Canadian real estate will crash hard despite the rate cuts and future actions taken by central banks. Many business models simply don’t work during a pandemic and many companies will go bust before things return to normal despite monetary and fiscal policy.

It’s not the number of current deaths that is concerning, it’s the number of deaths that will occur in the future. Right now, the number of deaths is relatively low. The worry is that exponential growth will continue resulting in many millions dead.

#84 N on 03.04.20 at 8:25 pm

Looks like the feds wallet is ready to be drawn…..
“The Canadian government is open to the idea of helping firms which are suffering economic damage from a coronavirus outbreak, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday, but did not give details.”
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-pm-opens-door-to-possible-aid-for-firms-hit-by-virus#comments-area

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 8:29 pm

gee, more good news in the Land of Pot….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/03/04/pot-jobs-cut-lower-mainland/

Seems everything Trudeau touches , “Turns to mould”

#86 CEW9 on 03.04.20 at 8:47 pm

#43 The Wet One on 03.04.20 at 5:03 pm

Separate and apart from the goings on of recent days, I wish to raise a question with the readers of this blog and Garth.

What is the best descriptive measure of wealth that you’ve come across.

People talk about other people’s wealth all the time. Most of the time, it’s largely meaningless. Is the average doctor wealthy? The average lawyer? The exception lawyer? A hockey player? How much is wealthy? Etc.

* * * * *

For me, wealth is agency, which for me is best described as the ability to do what one wants with one’s time.

A person might be trapped in a job that pays 300k a year and hate it – that to me is a very financially poor person. Trapped forever in a job they hate. |

While another person might only make 60k a year, but have the money needed (or income to expense ratio required) to quit anytime he liked and do something else. That is a person with extra “wealth”.

#87 ANON on 03.04.20 at 8:50 pm

Human to dog transmission confirmed. Blogdogs, beware. Felix is in the clear, for now… even with the panic attack he might have had when the masked feline made blogpost image.

#88 Flop... on 03.04.20 at 9:04 pm

Can I keep out of trouble for a while?

No, no I can’t.

Prices in Vancouver are not going back up yet.

I will give the most vague recent example I can think of, as not to upset the house pumpers on here.

This is the very, very bottom of the detached market.

Where: some detached house in a East Van.

What: someone paid 1.1m in late 2018

Who: dunno, but they just sold it for 904k

Why: prices are still going down…

M45BC

#89 Lost...but not leased on 03.04.20 at 9:09 pm

I was concerned MF and Phartzy may have wandered off the bargain – basement troll reservation…

Update:
Both are still confined and on auto-confounded mode.

#90 Lost...but not leased on 03.04.20 at 9:16 pm

Cannabis producer Canopy Growth shuts down 2 B.C. facilities, leaving hundreds out of work

https://globalnews.ca/news/6630628/cannabis-producer-canopy-growth-shutter-facilities/

===============================

Is there a punchline imbedded therein ???

#91 Spectacle on 03.04.20 at 9:17 pm

23 WTF on 03.04.20 at 2:22 pm
My new Hero, aside from GT (obligatory MSU)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIG9ozEDPVg

———- Now that guy is Good ————–

He should run for political appointment too, cow country will probably embrace him. Well worth the click Dogs.

Thanks for allowing posts such as #23 WTF tonight. Perspective /REALITY.

#92 Flop... on 03.04.20 at 9:21 pm

Been stocking up on toilet paper since late 2016.

So much blood and guts from amateur real estate speculation attempts in Vancouver.

Sometimes I use the toilet paper for a tourniquet, to try and stop the bleeding.

Sometimes I can only offer to wipe away the tears.

If only the real estate cartel was forced to be more transparent…

M45BC

#93 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 9:30 pm

Someday far in the future there will be stories told about 37m people living on $500T of resources and still managed to mess it up.

#94 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 9:37 pm

DELETED

#95 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 9:39 pm

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 7:51 pm
@#48 Sail away
Re Chilcotin country

—————————

Sounds fantastic.

If you do it again, look for a teepee by Bald Mountain on the upper benches of the Wineglass ranch 10-15 km above the Chilcotin / Fraser confluence. Love it out there.

#96 S.Bby on 03.04.20 at 9:44 pm

Bernie Sanders thinks billionaires shouldn’t exist. Class warfare wealth tax. There are 607 billionaires in the USA that better watch out.

#97 DON on 03.04.20 at 9:45 pm

#69 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 7:21 pm

#56 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 6:25 pm

I didn’t look at the link and I don’t care to. Now, go away. Find another rat to play with.

—————————–

You know how it is when you run from the cops and escape, but they actually know who you are?

You become their hobby.
********************

It is also what school yard bullies do. You become their hobby.

#98 DON on 03.04.20 at 9:49 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 8:29 pm

gee, more good news in the Land of Pot….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/03/04/pot-jobs-cut-lower-mainland/

Seems everything Trudeau touches , “Turns to mould”
*******************

Canopy produces crap…they were destined to fail and the black market is alive and well and produces way better stuff. Canopy is trying to be the next labatts in terms of mary jane but it’s a micro brew industry.

#99 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 9:54 pm

I wondered if #93 would get through. Let me just change what I wrote very slightly, by substituting a different word.

@#76, CF. Don’t worry, we’re done. You can have your *best* buddy back now.

#100 Flop... on 03.04.20 at 9:57 pm

I’ve laid out the scenario before.

Andrew Wilkinson falls on his sword.

Todd Stone or someone of that ilk takes over leader of the b.c liberals.

B.C economy hits the skids, and with short memories we switch back over to the b.c liberals.

All is forgiven, get this thing cranking again.

Remove all the taxes that the NDP brought in.

20% of the market was running on foreign money, what to do about replacing this?

Difficult for a while, a few so called ” trade missions” will be attempted.

Skytrain to UBC and densification attempts by developers on the Westside in the less Tony parts would help.

If all this happens in the next two years, then look out, real estate could take the next leg up.

Until then just a slow grind down with small pockets of positivity, keeping the dream alive for so many.

What a way to live…

M45BC

#101 Jimers on 03.04.20 at 10:00 pm

The Johnson Investigation into Biden activities in Ukraine will be the end of Joe Biden.

#102 Jimers on 03.04.20 at 10:05 pm

The Johnson Investigation into Biden activities in Ukraine will be the end of Joe Biden. This time, Republicans will be allowed to call witnesses.

#103 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 10:07 pm

re: #97

The original meaning of the supposed offending phrase (not the slang definition most are familiar with) was someone who had someone else’s back. It is thought to have been a term used by soldiers who protected each other.

#104 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 10:08 pm

ooops…I meant #93, not #97.

#105 Nonplused on 03.04.20 at 10:18 pm

Now WHO is saying don’t use paper money because germs. But don’t keypads see more fingers per day than bills? I remember reading an article where they sampled those new self-order screens at McDonald’s and 90% of them had feces on them. Just takes one dude that doesn’t wash his hands.

#106 Jay on 03.04.20 at 10:20 pm

Rebel aboriginal groups engage in acts of terrorism, the bands in BC themselves didn’t even support what was going on and the weak liberals negotiate with them and give away more? Can’t wait until all the teachers and nurses unions start blocking highways and tracks as well to get the raises they always want. If that doesn’t work, what’s next? Apparently we do negotiate with terrorists. What has this country come too.

#107 Scott on 03.04.20 at 10:40 pm

I hope you plunked down some $ Garth. Last week Trump was a slight favorite, just about even odds to beat the Dem candidate (where Bernie was a heavy favorite). Now Trump is only paying out 1.6 odds. It really looked like everything was lined up perfectly for Bernie to take the nomination. Gotta give the DNC credit for solid execution ensuring that money will run politics and there fore the country. They have to pick between Trump who half the country finds reprehensible or BIden who has a storied record of being on the wrong side of history.

#108 William R Drury on 03.04.20 at 10:43 pm

DELETED

#109 Long-Time Lurker on 03.04.20 at 10:46 pm

I’ve been following Seattle news off-hand and would like to report what I’ve found out thus far. I want to record my findings because Washington State was caught unprepared for their coronavirus outbreak and this record might help other unprepared districts. This is semi-accurate and in semi-chronological order:

1. On Saturday, February 29th, a coronavirus-infected patient was discovered at a senior’s care facility in Kirkland. This patient had a severe respiratory disorder but was not tested for coronavirus/Covid-19 earlier because of U.S. Centers for Disease Control rules: He had no exposure to overseas travelers.

2. 50 other residents of the care facility test positive for Covid-19. (Feb 29)

3. Researchers guess that Patient #1 was infected six weeks ago from an unknown source. They also guess that 100-1500 unknown Covid-19 cases are present in Washington State. (Feb 29)

4. Washington State declares a state of emergency allowing the state to take extreme measures to combat the outbreak, including utilizing The National Guard. (Feb 29)

5. 50 firefighters and some police officers come down with flu-like symptoms and go into self-quarantine. (March 1)

6. The State Government and populace complain about a lack of Covid-19 testing. (Mar 1)

7. Washington State buys a motel in Kent for quarantine use. (Mar 2)

8. Washington State buys recreational vehicles for quarantine use and place them in a former youth detention facility. (Mar 4)

9. Seattle has public transportation disinfected daily, using pesticide backpacks which get the job done quicker. (Mar 1 & 4)

10. Washington State University begins to ramp up it’s coronavirus testing facilities to handle 1000 tests a day. (Mar 4)

11. School closures are announced. (Mar 4)

12. People over 60 years old or with health conditions or are pregnant women are advised not to go out. (Mar 4)

13. People are advised to maintain six feet of distance between them and people they don’t know. (Mar 4)

(Also semi-accurate)

Los Angeles County declares a state of emergency on March 4, 2020 due to Covid-19. There are 9 cases. Three cases had exposure to Italy Covid-19 sources. One is a medical screening person for international travellers working at the the L.A. airport. Other cases are in Sacramento, Orange Country, Long Beach and Pasadena.

#110 april on 03.04.20 at 11:09 pm

#87 Flop, yes, and the real estate cartel is telling us that prices and sales are up and going up. Their allowed to get away with it and we know why. Bare faced lies. When only 17% of homes sold in Vancouver in Feb they have the gall to broadcast sales way up.

#111 april on 03.04.20 at 11:15 pm

#37- no their not, it’s realtor spin.

#112 SoggyShorts on 03.04.20 at 11:19 pm

#24 just snootin’ on 03.04.20 at 2:25 pm
Borrow $1mil to buy a shack. Pay $20k interest only. Sell in 1 year for $2mil to bushy millenial and bank of Mom. Pay Gov their half. Clear $450k after costs.

This is the plan, right? If i do this for ten years I will have $4.5 million. I see no flaws. Where do I sign?
******
But…why wouldn’t you buy more/bigger? Reinvestment is key!
Go 1m >1.5m > 2.25m > 3m> 4.5m> 7m> 10m> 15m>22.5m>30m >45m

Make 10x as much!

And why stop there?! Do it for 25 more years and be the first trillionaire!

#113 Blackdog on 03.04.20 at 11:21 pm

@#76 re: “@#56 Barking Dog
Ya just cant avoid chasing the car tires can ya Barky…..”

Speaking of annoying, yappy dogs…Crowded, must you always interrupt conversations that SA and I are having?

You are going to have to learn to share. SA is allowed to have more than one online buddy — not that I would ever want to be one.

You’ll get your turn.

#114 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 11:52 pm

Well, the balanced and diversied portfolio now back to even for the year. See where it goes from here.

#115 Keith on 03.05.20 at 12:30 am

Pot business: Never had a chance, try shrooms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_DpR3dpobY

#116 Nonplused on 03.05.20 at 12:46 am

So my call a few days ago (Sunday I believe) was for 3 up-days as Biden became the front runner and Sanders was removed from contention because I didn’t think the market action was all Covid-19. I got 2 out of 3 right. As Biden continues to consolidate his lead I predict volatility will decrease. If Covid remains a problem that will put downward pressure on the market but not necessarily a lot of up and down swings, more like just pricing in a higher risk of a recession. The up and down I think is political.

So what we have is constant downward pressure as Covid makes a recession increasingly likely, upward pressure from the Fed, (these 2 being more or less constant), and then a lot of noise from the politics.

So two more predictions: Sleepy Joe will carry the nomination, and Hillary Clinton will be his VP pick (she won the popular vote last time after all). Well, three predictions: Trump wins again. Markets will be up and down as this unfolds but once Trump gets 4 more years the volatility will be reduced and we’ll be left with just the Covid trend until that issue resolves itself.

#117 Hubert McCan on 03.05.20 at 12:59 am

BANNED

#118 Dmitry on 03.05.20 at 3:19 am

Garth, it looks like some governments are no longer in denial. This is from UK:

Official Government pandemic planning documents also raise the prospect of crematoria being opened 24/7 to cope with up to 50,000 extra deaths per week in the worst case scenario, with funeral services shortened to allow for more cremations per hour.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/04/pandemic-funeral-services-could-streamed-online-cut-infections/

#119 Gerald Putz on 03.05.20 at 3:22 am

BANNED

#120 Howard on 03.05.20 at 4:52 am

#95 S.Bby on 03.04.20 at 9:44 pm
Bernie Sanders thinks billionaires shouldn’t exist. Class warfare wealth tax. There are 607 billionaires in the USA that better watch out.

——————————-

Billionaires and their treasonous minions at the Fed don’t think middle class savers should exist.

Which is worse?

#121 Howard on 03.05.20 at 5:08 am

#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

what did the boomers ever suffer through?

———————————–

Valid question, notwithstanding the joke answers above.

The early 90s recession mostly hit older Silent Gen workers and new Gen X grads. 2001 mostly impacted Gen X tech workers. 2008 mostly impacted Millennials.

The Boomers (in Canada) never had to fight a war. Even voluntarily, there were no wars in which Canada was involved when they were of fighting age. They were too young in 1970s to be seriously impacted by the stagflation of the era. The early and mid Boomers who bought homes in the 70s and early 80s received the gift of high inflation to rid them of their debts.

If someone can think of an example when Canadian Boomers underwent hardship I’m open to changing my opinion on this.

#122 Cto on 03.05.20 at 5:15 am

The Geniuses at Bank of Canada
Doing the only thing they know
Okay Garth USA rates won’t go negative,
So let’s just focus on the Zero Point.
What do you think the chances are rates will be Zero by mid-summer?
And then what will this do to do super-powered real estate machine it is sucking up everything in its path?
Risk be it stocks or real estate seems to be the only path these days for the last 10 years…
Thanks to all the politically motivated central banks that are created this dilemma.

#123 Hand Sanitizer Sommelier on 03.05.20 at 5:23 am

“Sanders was the most virulent anti-corporation, pro-tax and socialistic person ever to get that close to a presidential nomination.”

Maybe read thrice-nominated Democrat William Jennings Bryan’s speeches sometime.

#124 under the radar on 03.05.20 at 5:24 am

#43- Being Wealthy – In relative terms everyone has their number . The ability to do what one likes with their time while still earning active or passive income – is one measure.

Of course , income producing assets , investments and substantial savings is largely what permits the leisure class to enjoy their wealth.

To those that have it but are too busy working to enjoy it, oh well .

High income earners that blow through it all annually – generally not wealthy. They are on a hamster wheel forced to work to keep up. Live large , make payments , repeat.

People who consistently save , consistently invest, live below their means , and avoid personal debt are in my view, are the ones who end up with financial freedom and become wealthy.

If your looking for a number , there is no one size fits all. By my measure, wealthy starts when your assets excluding your home are plus 5 million. But then you are still low on the wealth pole.

#125 the Jaguar on 03.05.20 at 7:11 am

Peter McKay has the credentials and public profile for the leadership job, and it won’t hurt that being from Nova Scotia he might be able to put a dent in that classically liberal voting area of the country given the region is famous for supporting ” who you know, not what you know”. I would advise him to get a full health check up before he does anything. Something in his eyes is a little ‘off’.
As for ‘Creepy old Joe’ Biden, with almost 8 months to go in the race he is sure to put his foot in his mouth in one way or another. All these so called candidates were never anything more than window dressing until the big moment when Hillary rides in with her posse…
It’s the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Deja Vu all over again.

#126 yup on 03.05.20 at 7:50 am

@#120 Howard on 03.05.20 at 5:08 am
#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

what did the boomers ever suffer through?

———————————–

Valid question, notwithstanding the joke answers above.

The early 90s recession mostly hit older Silent Gen workers and new Gen X grads. 2001 mostly impacted Gen X tech workers. 2008 mostly impacted Millennials.

The Boomers (in Canada) never had to fight a war. Even voluntarily, there were no wars in which Canada was involved when they were of fighting age. They were too young in 1970s to be seriously impacted by the stagflation of the era. The early and mid Boomers who bought homes in the 70s and early 80s received the gift of high inflation to rid them of their debts.

If someone can think of an example when Canadian Boomers underwent hardship I’m open to changing my opinion on this.
___________________________________

exactly. the first generation to get a free ride in life.
rides almost over, hope you folks enjoyed it.

#127 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 8:20 am

The Quebec Saguenay LNG project just lost one of its most prolific investors, Warren Buffet has pulled out. I mean when Buffet wont drop cash in your country you know something is wrong.

Wonder how Quebec likes a taste of what the west has been seeing. Maybe the bloc will be ready to topple this govt now.

Whatever side deal Trudeau made with the chiefs in BC, you bet every other FN will want the same thing. Resource extraction just ground to a perpetual halt.

Hope those take out window jobs can carry us for a while.

https://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/0d69390e-5f98-4076-aacc-8796c189bd0b__7C___0.html?utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=Microsite+Share&utm_content=Screen

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 8:21 am

@#113 Barking Dog
You posted 8 times yesterday Barky.
ALL of then whining about the same people.
You even managed a “Deleted”.
Well done.
Kind of ironic dont you think, since you were demanding we be censored or banned.

“Obsession: a persistent idea, a thought dominating one’s mind, a condition in which such ideas are always present.”

Poor Barky, always chasing car tires, never successful……
Sing after me.
“The tires keep going round and round , round and round, round and round. The tires keep going round and round…..alllll day looooooong.”

Not to worry. I’ll survive.
Just think of me every time you jump on a crowded elevator. :)

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 8:35 am

@#126 yup
“exactly. the first generation to get a free ride in life.
rides almost over, hope you folks enjoyed it.”
++++
Ahhhh yessss, the Millennial whine about how all Boomers lived in Paradise.
Yes we didnt go to war, just like our Parents, who were born in the 1930’s and were too young for WW2
You whining Mils might want to review your history books…..errr sorry….. retina melting Kinder tablets.
I was born at the end of the boom and watched ALL the non existent jobs filled with the Boomer cohort before me.
The 70’s recession, gas rationing, unemployment rates at 10% for over a decade, the 80’s interest rates for loans in the high teens, unemployment still hovering around 10%.
Yeah it was paradise.

I truly wish it repeats for about 15 years like the last time to let you children experience the “nirvana” of high inflation, high unemployment and watch you all pray for another world war ( with China?….yeah…that’ll fix everything……) to bump start the economy if there is anything left….

* Side note to Barky*:
This is called, “commenting on other issues”, try it some time. It’s invigorating.

#130 Tony on 03.05.20 at 8:36 am

Re: #30 Overheardyou on 03.04.20 at 2:41 pm

With zero or negative interest rates next year the boomers will be flat broke just like in Germany, Europe and Japan. The next shoe to drop will be the rich will become the new poor.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 8:45 am

@#127 not 1st
“Whatever side deal Trudeau made with the chiefs in BC, you bet every other FN will want the same thing. ”
++++

Yep, The Liberals has just shown ALL 1st Nations the way forward.
Throw up a blockade and wait for the Feds to shower taxpayer money from 10,000 feet.

Wellll done Trudeau, prepare fro more blockades….and higher taxes if you pay them……
Liberals = Amateur Hour

Gotta love the latest polls

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/canadians-trudeau-blockade-pipeline_ca_5e5fcf07c5b63aaf8f60d767

https://nationalpost.com/news/one-thing-canadians-arent-divided-on-blaming-the-government-for-the-blockades

Yo Barky!
Another comment on ANOTHER subject! See how EASY it is if you’re not chasing tires?

#132 Q2 Duplex Drive on 03.05.20 at 8:50 am

Joe Biden? Really? The guy who thinks he’s running for the senate? The guy who bragged about getting the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating his son’s company Burisma fired? That Joe Biden? The guy who says taxes are going up, guns will be confiscated and the border will be opened wide? And illegals will get free medical care?

Get real. The only difference between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden is that Donald Trump will take at least 49 states against Sanders and only 45+ states against Biden. A true George McGovern 2.0 blowout. And Mr. Market will LOVE it.

#133 JWD on 03.05.20 at 8:54 am

#121 Howard

2008/9 affected everyone but in particular the boomers. Just imagine getting ready to retire after working/saving most of your life adult in your 60’s. And the GFC happens. My parents and most of their friends were hugely impacted financially. They are among the first wave of boomers born in the mid/late 40’s. Housing , I agree, they benefitted greatly but the stock market collapse in 08/09 was unrecoverable for many….

#134 Blackdog on 03.05.20 at 9:09 am

@Crowded #128 re: “@Blackdog, you posted 8 times yesterday”

Are you going to count how many times I comment today too? You should really quit obsessing. I’m not a threat to your relationship with SA. Promise.

How’s about we consider this comment to be the end of all dialogue between the two of us from now on. In other words, stop directing comments my way and I will do the same for you.

Deal?

BTW, you would have LOVED my comment that got deleted yesterday, something about “besties”. Now, go along and play with your little friend.

#135 Penny Henny on 03.05.20 at 9:13 am

#126 yup on 03.05.20 at 7:50 am
@#120 Howard on 03.05.20 at 5:08 am
#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

what did the boomers ever suffer through?

———————————–

Valid question, notwithstanding the joke answers above.

The early 90s recession mostly hit older Silent Gen workers and new Gen X grads. 2001 mostly impacted Gen X tech workers. 2008 mostly impacted Millennials.

The Boomers (in Canada) never had to fight a war. Even voluntarily, there were no wars in which Canada was involved when they were of fighting age. They were too young in 1970s to be seriously impacted by the stagflation of the era. The early and mid Boomers who bought homes in the 70s and early 80s received the gift of high inflation to rid them of their debts.

If someone can think of an example when Canadian Boomers underwent hardship I’m open to changing my opinion on this.
___________________________________

exactly. the first generation to get a free ride in life.
rides almost over, hope you folks enjoyed it.
???????????????

Can I go again?

#136 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 9:16 am

You know our woke green generation isn’t too bright. Guess that’s why they are paid $10 a day to hold a sign.

Goods will get in, you cant block every avenue. But you can kill an industry in a single location, like Vancouver. The Americans will handle it for us because they don’t take any guff when it comes to the economy.

https://biv.com/article/2020/03/blockades-threaten-divert-cargo-us-permanently

#137 Tony on 03.05.20 at 9:33 am

Some company puts in a big short on Cineplex. I worked for that company and could see this coming today.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 9:48 am

@#134 Barkingdog
” In other words, stop directing comments my way and I will do the same for you.”
++++

Sure, until you bark something irrational or politically correct that requires intelligent, thoughtful, well reasoned rebuttal….

3…2…1….

Oh, most people that dont like me call me Fartz…. seems to make then feel superior or something.
Feel free.

#139 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 9:50 am

Well #135 or Henny Penny as a Boomer I didn’t get the high pay and the cheap housing that was with in the three years pay rule so I had to go without hearth and home,wife and children all my adult life so far. So you will have to excuse me if I think of my self as being some what holocausted by both the labor and real estate markets plus all the social engineering that comes with a democratic and or Marxist political system. No I am not a Jew. I am a straight,white and normal man born in Canada to families that conquered and settled this land. Everyday and in every way I feel screwed over and disrespected. It isn’t me that needs to be punished…. I have work to do today building stairs and if I am lucky I’ll earn $60 doing skilled work at market wage rates for 4 hours work…For a lot of us it is a take or leave it deal. That is why Canada has an immigration policy. To keep labor cheap,real estate high and to replace guys like me.

#140 Tony on 03.05.20 at 10:01 am

Cineplex Lockout IATSE Local 173

Uploaded March 01, 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxMF8qI7CUo&t=85s

Did I short Cineplex?

#141 maxx on 03.05.20 at 10:10 am

@ #41

Volatility is waaaay up. “Markets love stability”, well now, so do we.

Today’s not looking so hot on the markets…..ooops. Time to fire hose more liquidity into them and maybe drop rates a thousand basis points or so.

#142 Sail Away on 03.05.20 at 10:16 am

Well, I bought more VUS and BRK (because I consider Buffett an index) this morning.

Is it the best time? Tough to say. Nobody’s euphoric, in any case.

#143 COVFEFE-19 on 03.05.20 at 10:25 am

“Goods will get in, you cant block every avenue. But you can kill an industry in a single location, like Vancouver. The Americans will handle it for us because they don’t take any guff when it comes to the economy.”

If you think shippers are going to pay an extra $100 per container or $5/ton to ship through a “more reliable” but further port, you don’t know the first thing about non-time-sensitive shipping, for which the most important considerations are 1) cost, 2) cost, and 3) cost.

The guy telling BIV that story probably didn’t believe it himself, and BIV shouldn’t have fallen for it.

#144 Yuus bin Haad on 03.05.20 at 10:28 am

Bernie confided in me that perhaps he should have been teaching his youthful followers how to vote rather than just encouraging them to jump up-and-down and yell and scream.

#145 Mattl on 03.05.20 at 10:29 am

#110 april on 03.04.20 at 11:09 pm
#87 Flop, yes, and the real estate cartel is telling us that prices and sales are up and going up. Their allowed to get away with it and we know why. Bare faced lies. When only 17% of homes sold in Vancouver in Feb they have the gall to broadcast sales way up.

———————————————————

The RE boards are marketing groups. Expecting them to NOT pump RE is naive. They are not going to come out and say “now is a terrible time to buy/sell a house” in the same way that Garth is not going to advise investors to go to cash or try and time the market.

What I don’t understand, is why you and Flop find the numbers posted by the boards so hard to understand. There is nothing hidden in the numbers, it doesn’t take much in the way of critical thinking to interpret what is happening in the market.

For instance, the Feb release is all about demand being up and supply being down. Because of this, more homes sold in Feb 2020 then in Feb 2019. They also mention that sales volume is 15% below the 10 year average, so while sales have rebounded, still below historical. Prices, mostly flat.

Is there something in that release that you see as being dishonest or hard to understand? What am I missing?

#146 Brett in Calgary on 03.05.20 at 10:42 am

Or, it’s a sign that more than ever ETFs/indie brokerages (i.e. regular folks buying/selling not fund managers with locked in mutual funds) are causing this bumpy ride. Just my speculation of course, but I doubt that something is systematically wrong with the markets. My brother in-law sold everything when it got bumpy… now multiply that by all the people in the nation who are panicking and run their own funds. I have been buying, personally.
==========
#41 Ed on 03.04.20 at 4:38 pm
These 1,000 point bounces are not a good sign. Something is wrong. I am not sure what is going on, but this market instability is not a sign of resilience, it is a sign of something going wrong.

#147 SoggyShorts on 03.05.20 at 10:52 am

#126 yup on 03.05.20 at 7:50 am
@#120 Howard on 03.05.20 at 5:08 am
#52 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

what did the boomers ever suffer through?
——
If someone can think of an example when Canadian Boomers underwent hardship I’m open to changing my opinion on this.
___________________________________

exactly. the first generation to get a free ride in life.
rides almost over, hope you folks enjoyed it.

**********
Didn’t the 2000 and 2008 crashes totally Bork a bunch of boomers?
I mean
they were 36-54y old in 2000 and
They were 44-62y old in 2008

Assuming some of them had investments I’m pretty sure a bunch of retirement plans went poof!

Also my boomer parents in Alberta had a pretty rough go in the mid 80s and before that in the late 70s in Ontario with a shit economy.

I’m a late late gen X and I’ve had it way easier I think.

#148 Blackdog on 03.05.20 at 10:56 am

@#138 CF

Regarding my suggestion for a cease-fire, you respond: ” Sure, until you bark something irrational or politically correct that requires intelligent, thoughtful, well reasoned rebuttal….”

Awesome! Since you are not capable of such, it stands to reason that I won’t be seeing any further comments from you directed to me.

3…2…1….

#149 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 11:00 am

Fartz,

While actively hurly abuse of their own, a certain poster indicated a willingness to go MeToo. Suggest limiting contact. Dishonourable opponent. Bad dog.

#150 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 11:02 am

#144 Yuus bin Haad on 03.05.20 at 10:28 am

Bernie confided in me that perhaps he should have been teaching his youthful followers how to vote rather than just encouraging them to jump up-and-down and yell and scream.

——————————

Bernie told me that his resounding success teaching the Canadian blockaders encouraged him to try the same elsewhere.

#151 Hookshott on 03.05.20 at 11:04 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 8:45 am
@#127 not 1st
“Whatever side deal Trudeau made with the chiefs in BC, you bet every other FN will want the same thing. ”
++++

Yep, The Liberals has just shown ALL 1st Nations the way forward.
Throw up a blockade and wait for the Feds to shower taxpayer money from 10,000 feet.

Wellll done Trudeau, prepare fro more blockades….and higher taxes if you pay them……
Liberals = Amateur Hour

…..
Easy to criticize…and your solution would have been?????

#152 The Wet One on 03.05.20 at 11:06 am

Hmmm…

Interesting response there #125.

According to you, there’s only about 20 million wealthy people in the world. You’re not the first one I’ve heard give the figure of $5 million either. A friend of mine I consider wealthy gave that number more than a decade ago or so now.

I don’t know that there are that few wealthy people, but perhaps there are.

Also, I don’t think you referred to my link when discussing “wealth” on a relative basis. That’s fine. But that’s also precisely the problem I’m getting at. You say wealth means one thing, someone else says it means something else.

Which ends up with the result that wealth doesn’t actually mean anything and no one is actually communicating anything intelligible to anyone else when they’re talking about wealth.

Which seems like a problem to me. One without a ready made solution (though I’ve seen one provided in the link I gave and provided another definition of wealth).

Oh well.

I guess we’ll just have to keep on talking about nothing intelligible for the foreseeable future.

That’s fine.

Except when it isn’t (like when “wealthy” means people making $90K a year in income, which makes absolutely no sense, but hey, whatever, right? Taxes don’t matter! LAALAOLAOLAOLAOLAOL).

Whatever.

No one cares.

#153 Potty Mouth on 03.05.20 at 11:08 am

BANNED

#154 Deplorable Dude on 03.05.20 at 11:13 am

#52 Deplorable Dude “She will drop out any day now.”

And she’s out….called it yesterday. So predictable. She had one job, to take votes away from Bernie. I wonder what her payoff from the Club was?..

#155 yup on 03.05.20 at 11:14 am

@#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 8:35 am
@#126 yup
“exactly. the first generation to get a free ride in life.
rides almost over, hope you folks enjoyed it.”
++++
Ahhhh yessss, the Millennial whine about how all Boomers lived in Paradise.
Yes we didnt go to war, just like our Parents, who were born in the 1930’s and were too young for WW2
You whining Mils might want to review your history books…..errr sorry….. retina melting Kinder tablets.
I was born at the end of the boom and watched ALL the non existent jobs filled with the Boomer cohort before me.
The 70’s recession, gas rationing, unemployment rates at 10% for over a decade, the 80’s interest rates for loans in the high teens, unemployment still hovering around 10%.
Yeah it was paradise.

I truly wish it repeats for about 15 years like the last time to let you children experience the “nirvana” of high inflation, high unemployment and watch you all pray for another world war ( with China?….yeah…that’ll fix everything……) to bump start the economy if there is anything left….
_________________________________

Thats hardly suffering lol.
easy opportunity was there for the taking

not a mil and apparently you are the whiner.

#156 Ronaldo on 03.05.20 at 11:16 am

#139 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 9:50 am

$15 bucks an hour for a skilled worker. Where on earth do you live Steven where they can’t pay more than that? Even in the Okanagan where you have to pay a sun tax to live there you can get 20 to 30 as a handyman.

#157 doug t on 03.05.20 at 11:18 am

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz

ah yes the 70’s and 80’s good times eh – my millenial son asks me about them often – he at least seems to appreciate what how things are different now :)

#158 Try a little farther west ... on 03.05.20 at 11:20 am

#95 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 9:39 pm

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.20 at 7:51 pm
@#48 Sail away
Re Chilcotin country

—————————

Sounds fantastic.

If you do it again, look for a teepee by Bald Mountain on the upper benches of the Wineglass ranch 10-15 km above the Chilcotin / Fraser confluence. Love it out there.
——————————————————
Incredible Coho fishing in the Bella Coola river in the fall. Huge fish … oh and huge grizzlies.

#159 Ronaldo on 03.05.20 at 11:24 am

#136 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 9:16 am
You know our woke green generation isn’t too bright. Guess that’s why they are paid $10 a day to hold a sign.

Goods will get in, you cant block every avenue. But you can kill an industry in a single location, like Vancouver. The Americans will handle it for us because they don’t take any guff when it comes to the economy.

https://biv.com/article/2020/03/blockades-threaten-divert-cargo-us-permanently
—————————————————————
I recall back in the 70s longshoreman strike when ships were diverted to Seattle. Some discovered that it was cheaper even with the extra miles being trucked to Vancouver because of the difference in labour and fuel costs. Our governments need to ball up. They deserve what they get.

#160 Attrition on 03.05.20 at 11:28 am

Imagine if right now, in some lab or medical complex, some very smart people were using considerable resources to gather the evidence that proves COVID-19 was an intentional act of war.

Imagine if that was actually happening right now.

Next, imagine if it was discovered that indeed the virus had been intentionally weaponized and released to not only disrupt the market, but weaken many military forces, police forces etc. while simultaneously causing social unrest, panic, shortages etc.

Would sure put the earning of a few extra digital peanuts into perspective awfully quick.

#161 Ronaldo on 03.05.20 at 11:41 am

#130 Tony on 03.05.20 at 8:36 am
Re: #30 Overheardyou on 03.04.20 at 2:41 pm

With zero or negative interest rates next year the boomers will be flat broke just like in Germany, Europe and Japan. The next shoe to drop will be the rich will become the new poor.
—————————————————————-
The smarter boomers will be fully invested in the markets and doing just fine.

#162 COVFEFE-19 on 03.05.20 at 11:41 am

“The Americans will handle it for us because they don’t take any guff when it comes to the economy.”

Except maybe in bleeding-heart-liberal enclaves, like Texas:

https://gcaptain.com/jury-opposes-felony-charges-for-protesters-who-shut-houston-ship-channel/

#163 Ubul on 03.05.20 at 11:44 am

Pow! The Democratic machine market bounce is done, just like that. The reality check on Biden nomination has sunk in by the morning.

#164 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 11:46 am

#154 Deplorable Dude on 03.05.20 at 11:13 am

#52 Deplorable Dude “She will drop out any day now.”
And she’s out….called it yesterday. So predictable. She had one job, to take votes away from Bernie. I wonder what her payoff from the Club was?..

—————————–

Good work, Nostradamus.

What’s the stock of the future? Will Corona eliminate Homo Sapiens? Does the Pale Rider approach?

Wish I had a mini version of you in an 8-ball….

#165 april on 03.05.20 at 12:01 pm

#145- you leave out a lot of details and prices are not only flat selling prices are down….. people may be listing higher… believing realtor spin. It’s always a good time to buy according to the real estate cartel and prices never go down. It’s their livelihood….

#166 Blackdog on 03.05.20 at 12:08 pm

@#149 Sail Away

Re: “While actively hurly abuse of their own…”

When it comes to certain individuals, sometimes it is good to give them a taste of their own medicine.

Re: “Suggest limiting contact….Bad dog.”

Yes, do try harder to keep your fawning, territorial, yappy mutt under better control.

#167 Mattl on 03.05.20 at 12:14 pm

#156 Ronaldo on 03.05.20 at 11:16 am
#139 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 9:50 am

$15 bucks an hour for a skilled worker. Where on earth do you live Steven where they can’t pay more than that? Even in the Okanagan where you have to pay a sun tax to live there you can get 20 to 30 as a handyman.

———————————————————

I’ve asked him the same questions in the past and he doesn’t answer. He has to be a troll. Because you are correct, you can mow lawns in the OK and make 20 an hour. A good buddy runs a landscaping company in the LML and he has all the work anyone can take at 30 an hour with benefits – can’t find reliable workers.

And if you are reliable and skilled? Get on a framing crew and make 30-50 an hour.

Anyone that has any modicum of skill, and can swing a hammer, should be overwhelmed with the amount of work available the past 15 years. You could put a handyman add in the local rag and have cash jobs every day. I would LOVE to find a reliable carpenter to take 30 an hour cash from me to do some projects around my house.

#168 Ronaldo on 03.05.20 at 12:20 pm

#121 Howard on 03.05.20 at 5:08 am

The Boomers (in Canada) never had to fight a war. Even voluntarily, there were no wars in which Canada was involved when they were of fighting age. They were too young in 1970s to be seriously impacted by the stagflation of the era. The early and mid Boomers who bought homes in the 70s and early 80s received the gift of high inflation to rid them of their debts.
—————————————————————–
I being the eldest of the boomers remember the early 70s well. I was one of the very few at the time in my age group to buy a my first home in Dec. 69. I was 23, just paid off my debts (car) after 2.5 years of marriage and 500 bucks in the bank and a loan from my mother for the down payment which I paid her back a month or so later with a loan I made for furniture (thats what I told the bank).

Yes, as demand for housing increased prices started to rise so that by Feb. of 72 our place had risen in value by 32% and continued to rise at a fair rapid pace. Keep in mind that the oldest of the boomers (myself) was 26 by that time. Many of the boomers my age (my co-workers) did not get into the market until later so they were buying in at the higher prices. In October 73 we had the oil embargo and rapid inflation and rising interest rates but by September of 74 the party was over and house prices collapsed.

Those like myself who bought in early did ok even though prices of homes had dropped up to 40% by end of 74 since the rise in prices had been so great (like double) between January 70 and Sept. 74. The worst hit was West Vancouver.

So yes, a very few of us who got in early in the game survived this first of other house crashes to follow. For many of the boomers not so lucky. We saw oil prices during that period rise by 400% resulting in runaway inflation, many strikes, and many people losing their jobs and homes.

So to say that the boomers hit the jackpot. Not so much. You need to do a bit more research.

#169 IHCTD9 on 03.05.20 at 12:24 pm

#162 COVFEFE-19 on 03.05.20 at 11:41 am

Except maybe in bleeding-heart-liberal enclaves, like Texas:

https://gcaptain.com/jury-opposes-felony-charges-for-protesters-who-shut-houston-ship-channel/
_____

From the link:

“The Harris County jurors opted instead for 25 misdemeanor indictments for obstructing a highway or other passageway.

The misdemeanor charge has a penalty of up to 180 days of jail time and a fine of up to $2,000”

I dunno about the bleeding hearts. 180 days in the slammer and a 2k fine seems like a pretty good slap on the wrist to me.

#170 Mattl on 03.05.20 at 12:27 pm

#165 april on 03.05.20 at 12:01 pm
#145- you leave out a lot of details and prices are not only flat selling prices are down….. people may be listing higher… believing realtor spin. It’s always a good time to buy according to the real estate cartel and prices never go down. It’s their livelihood….

————————————————————

I didn’t leave out any details. The numbers are all posted and public. If you rely on press releases, Global TV or blog posts to interpret whats happening in RE then that’s on you.

And even in the press release, they mention – not buried but in it’s own paragraph – that sales are 15% below the 10 year average. They are fully disclosing that these sales numbers are good relative to last Feb, but well below long term averages.

Life will always be tough for those that can’t get past marketing to the actual numbers. Which in this case clearly show that the market is moving laterally, but is much more healthy then this time YOY. Is this a good time to buy? I would say no, Realtors will say yes.

The best bet however is always against Ross Kay, who has made a career of being wrong about YVR RE. If Ross says RE is going down that is a clear signal to buy or hold.

Full disclosure – I can’t stand Realtors as a profession. Have had overall bad experiences, and when they speak I don’t listen. And I don’t have to… all the data a buyer needs; comps, days on market, YOY/MOM trends is available prior to any purchase.

#171 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 1:20 pm

Most of the posters have no idea whats coming down the pike.

Rumor is Trudeau has agreed to ratify UNDRIP and give the Wetsowetin title to their 22,000 acres. That title is on an equivalent basis to the crown. So another layer of govt is being added to our country. Everything will have to be run past these two groups.

The crown as represented by Trudeau has a stranglehold on the electorate but I can still try to vote him out if I don’t like the policies.

But the native groups are not elected by me, some not elected by anyone, defacto dictatorships with hereditary confusion thrown in the mix. Those 5 elders stole their titles from women in the band. These guys don’t even know who is in charge and they want to take up an equivalent standing with the crown? No wonder money is fleeing in droves. That is incompatible with a modern democracy and economy.

Soon Garth will have to pen his final blog post which will be recommending to remove all assets from the country. The experiment is over. Welcome to the first post national state.

#172 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 1:24 pm

@151 Hookshott

Hopefully the attached solution answers your question. Better? Not so hard…

—————————-

#169 IHCTD9 on 03.05.20 at 12:24 pm

“The Harris County jurors opted instead for 25 misdemeanor indictments for obstructing a highway or other passageway.

The misdemeanor charge has a penalty of up to 180 days of jail time and a fine of up to $2,000”

#173 Midnights on 03.05.20 at 1:27 pm

Armstrong did say, we could test the lows again or break them. This isn’t your grandfathers economy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-5-2020-124437019.html

#174 Lost...but not leased on 03.05.20 at 1:32 pm

Condo crisis? Analyst warns of massive Metro Vancouver presale drop-off

https://globalnews.ca/news/6611441/metro-vancouver-presale-dropoff-condos-townhouses/

A B.C. real estate market analyst is sounding the alarm about a steep drop-off in condo and townhouse presales.

“We knew there was something going on, but when we saw the final numbers we were pretty shocked,” said Michael Ferreira, managing principal with Urban Analytics.

The company recently crunched regional data for 2019 and found a 60-per cent drop in new condo and townhouse units coming to market.

Looking at highrise construction only, the dip was even steeper: 76 per cent.

=======

Yep..still lots of construction….but likely based on pre-sales years ago.

Drops in Pre – Sales now manifest themselves in near future. Watch Out.

#175 Deplorable Dude on 03.05.20 at 1:35 pm

#164 Sailaway

Cute that you think the Dem voters are getting to choose their Presidential candidate.

Warren came 3rd in her own State. Her internal polls would have shown that….yet she stayed in, and didn’t withdraw before Super Tuesday. Unlike Buttigieg who was in a similar situation. He pulled our the day before and gave his votes to Biden…despite previously praising Bernie.

She screwed Bernie, and this morning is refusing to endorse either Bernie/Biden. Obviously negotiating a payoff. Totally inauthentic and fake. She campaigned as a progressive. She should have immediately endorsed Bernie.

The Club obviously has other ideas.

#176 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 1:41 pm

#171 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 1:20 pm

Soon Garth will have to pen his final blog post which will be recommending to remove all assets from the country. The experiment is over. Welcome to the first post national state.

——————————

South Dakota welcomes you with open arms (well, the cash part, anyway).

No income tax, reasonable sales tax, awesome cash-protecting trust laws, low house prices. Pheasants.

No conflicting government-within-government morass.

#177 Lost...but not leased on 03.05.20 at 1:44 pm

#171 not 1st on 03.05.20 at 1:20 pm
Most of the posters have no idea whats coming down the pike.

Rumor is Trudeau has agreed to ratify UNDRIP and give the Wetsowetin title to their 22,000 acres. That title is on an equivalent basis to the crown. So another layer of govt is being added to our country. Everything will have to be run past these two groups.

===============
Thanks…

Any links ???

FYI: I was in Victoria and talked to some protestors at Legislature.

They claim that”hereditary” chiefs have an obligation to protect the land for future generations.

I also read that the new Canadian citizenship oath includes a pledge to First Nations…

IMHO…this is simply cheap slimey politics masking a much bigger agenda. Funny how so many BLACK SWAN events are occurring globally.

#178 IHCTD9 on 03.05.20 at 1:44 pm

#147 SoggyShorts on 03.05.20 at 10:52 am

Didn’t the 2000 and 2008 crashes totally Bork a bunch of boomers?
I mean
they were 36-54y old in 2000 and
They were 44-62y old in 2008

Assuming some of them had investments I’m pretty sure a bunch of retirement plans went poof!

Also my boomer parents in Alberta had a pretty rough go in the mid 80s and before that in the late 70s in Ontario with a shit economy.

I’m a late late gen X and I’ve had it way easier I think.
___

Yep, I know several Boomers who were in the middle of wrapping up their careers when the GFC hit – Poof!, like you say. A couple of them got divorced right off the bat too (Millennials enjoy a declining divorce rate).

I’m an early gen X, and have always thought us X’ers had it pretty easy too. Sure the 90’s sucked, but if you got a decent job – we had a great run up till the GFC. If you managed to stay employed thru that, there were 10 + more decent years that followed. I didn’t make it thru unscathed, but still managed to get re-employed and carried on.

But who has it the easiest? Well, the Mils do – just not the loud ones living in big Canadian cities. All the other ones are doing pretty well buying all those things the urban Mils can’t, getting hitched, having kids, buying toys, and some save for the future too. Done with ease, even easier than the X’ers had it.

These kids have the cheapest interest rates ever seen, the lowest cost consumer goods since the dawn of time, the most favourable financing terms ever offered, the highest student/minimum wages compared to the cost of living in all of history. Small town Mils still get decent housing prices (despite 2-2.5% 5’ers), and good to great wages.

The next time you read an article detailing how screwed the Mils are, take note of the beefs: High cost of housing? Crap job market? Crap wages? Huge student loan debts? Can’t afford RE? Rent too high? Going nowhere?

It’s all big city stuff.

#179 Tudval on 03.05.20 at 1:57 pm

@#170 Mattl

Yes, sales numbers are below the 10 years average, but there’s a good reason for that. Much less flipping. Flipping adds both to the demand and supply, only government and real estate agents win, it doesn’t do anything for prices – on average. So , with that out of the picture, we are left with real demand which is still greater than real supply.

#15 Bubble
” Respectfully Garth “back into bubble territory”. Did we miss out affordable pricing? ”

Yes, you missed it… First you missed the affordable condo market 3-4 years ago (which I wrote many times about)… then, while there was a lot of investment and speculation in the condo market and prices went up, the detached segment was down, then stagnant for 3 years. A smart investor would have sold a condo on strength and buy a detached on weakness. The window for that is closing fast.

#180 crazyfox on 03.05.20 at 2:06 pm

In other news:

California now has 53 cases including 1 fatality. 4 cases are from community spread and 3 are under investigation.

1 death is from the Grand Princess, a cruise ship. 2500 other people got off the ship and 2500 new passengers got on. Ahem. The old and new passengers are to be tested and likely put through 14 days of self isolation:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/cruise-ship-is-held-off-california-coast-for-virus-testing-1.4839718

Am I the only one noticing this? Cruise ships are beginning to turn into giant coffins. Everybody coffin’ er, coughing, sneezing all over themselves, touching everything. Not to go unnoticed, this coffin er’, cruise ship left with 1,000 less than full capacity. Reducing ticket fares may not help. Demand side economics may have to eventually start pricing it in at some point here.

The state of California has declared an expected state of emergency. (a new normal in this age)

In other news, New York city confirms 2 new cases from community spread. NY state currently has 22 cases. More numbers are expected as testing ramps up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-doubled-overnight-as-gov-cuomo-confirms-11-new-infections.html

In Washington, 40 new cases and 10 deaths overshadow the state. (6 of 10 are from an old folks home so that’s reassuring) Instances of community spread have been reported.

To summarize, there seems to be a divergence between the Trump administrations, “all is well, risk is low, we are ready approach” compared to state and municipal responses closing schools and events while pleading with the CDC for more test kits and declaring state emergencies (California). At present, the U.S. has 164 reported cases of COVID-19 with 3 states reporting community spread.

#181 Sail away on 03.05.20 at 2:07 pm

I agree with IH. The Mills have it easier than any preceding generation.

Most of them realize it, too.

The whiners are a small minority, but magnified through social media. The same contingent that never launched.

#182 Overheardyou on 03.05.20 at 2:23 pm

#53 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 6:09 pm

————–

To start, the world had a lot less wealth, just finished a global war. They dealt with high interest rates, the cold war, GFC, lack of financial education, lack of access to information for the masses, and more. Millennials and subsequent generations has not had any significant events happen to them during their adult lives. Perhaps this virus will help them learn something about the world.

#183 Damifino on 03.05.20 at 2:29 pm

#178 IHCTD9

Yep, I know several Boomers who were in the middle of wrapping up their careers when the GFC hit – Poof!
——————————

I retired in 2007. In the autumn of 2008 came the GFC. Poof! I lost about $200 K in a few months.

I was advised not to sell into a storm and didn’t. A little over a year later all losses had returned. A few years after that… Voilà! I’m up $100 K in spite of drawing retirement funds. These days, still way, way, up even after CV hit town.

From poof to voilà. From voilà to poof. You roll with it.

#184 just snootin' on 03.05.20 at 2:33 pm

#112 SoggyShorts on 03.04.20 at 11:19 pm

Go 1m >1.5m > 2.25m > 3m> 4.5m> 7m> 10m> 15m>22.5m>30m >45m

Make 10x as much!

And why stop there?! Do it for 25 more years and be the first trillionaire!

I like your thinking. Never say never/dare to dream and all that. I see big things in your future. Right now I am working on obtaining 4 properties–one for each season, like fashion accessories. I have summer and fall, still shopping for the cozy winter and happy spring.

#185 cog-diss on 03.05.20 at 2:33 pm

give it a month and many will be eating their shorts. there are now two strains of covid 19 that have been identified. the original S version is less transmissible and milder. the L version is very transmissible and more severe. this may help to explain the spreads in the r0 between 2-6 and the average CFR between 1-4%. we’re still getting terrible data as even the us couldn’t be bothered to take this seriously. it likely means a vaccine, if it was ever possible, is more difficult. we’ll likely be living with this like the seasonal flu. india has just suspended export of 26 pharmaceutical chemicals, for generic drugs. china makes a lot of the precursor chemicals…there are going to be lots of very important disruptions.

for those that think that a slow-down in greenhouse gas emissions is a purely positive thing i can only suggest you read some peer-reviewed papers on the aerosol masking effect. it’s a frying pan or fire scenario.

…then there are those locusts that have just hatched a massive bloom and haven’t taken flight yet.

good luck, you’ll need it.

#186 Tudval on 03.05.20 at 2:39 pm

#178 IHCTD9 The 90’s were pretty rough in Toronto and this is why real estate prices were so low for almost a decade. Bargain of a generation if you could hold on to a job. And some are using that as a reference point? Pray we won’t see times like those again. I had many friends, young professionals with multiple master’s degrees and a few years experience, having to look for another job pretty regularly due to cuts and bankruptcies.

Toronto was so quiet in the summer, you could drive in 10 minutes on DVP from Lawrence to Lake shore to enjoy a nice afternoon, if you were between jobs. Of course, the funny thing about being ‘between’ was that you knew about the job you lost, but had no idea if there was another one ahead. Short term interest rates were 9% even in a recession because Canada had the highest debt to GDP in the western world and Quebec was threatening to separate without paying a dime more towards it.

Investment was fleeing south fast and all was quiet – no construction dust, little tailpipe smoke – we had pollution only when the wind was blowing some from the American side, as they were ramping up production fast .. what, with interest rates half of ours and riding high from having just conquered the world.

#187 Trudeau's Socks on 03.05.20 at 2:49 pm

Hi Garth – small unrelated request. I tune in to weekly your podcast and noticed that over the past year it gets posted later and later in the week, which makes the news segments out of date. Would it be possible to have them up on Wednesdays or at least on Thursdays again?
Thanks.

#188 crazyfox on 03.05.20 at 3:03 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

On the international scene, Germany reported 252 new cases jumping their number to 514. France 377 well, read it in the top link for yourselves. There are at least 10 nations now with community spread.

There are now at least 2 COVID-19 strains and 1 sub-strain from an 97 sample study with 3 Chinese Universities working in collaboration. This story was completely missed by media in February (notice the date) :

https://www.technicalpolitics.com/articles/researchers-explore-variant-strains-of-covid-19-fifty-countries-and-territories-have-now-reported-coronavirus-cases/

Two days ago, reporting from a Peking University of 103 cases reported 2 strains indicating a similar 70/30 split of the same strains reported in February:

https://www.complex.com/life/2020/03/researchers-identify-2-strains-of-coronavirus-more-aggressive

Researchers said type L (the deadlier, more contagious type) was more common in the “early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan” but began to decrease “after early January 2020.” With a sampling size of 103, more testing is needed to see which of these two strains are more dominant and in which nations.

This should have been a big story that once again, went under the radar concerning COVID-19. 2 or more strains could no doubt complicate the search for a vaccine and means epidemic waves are more possible through re-infection. Investors and concerned citizens will need to familiarize themselves with these terms in understanding the implications for a vaccine:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_drift

#189 whiplash on 03.05.20 at 3:18 pm

#177 Lost…but not leased

Your are correct, legislation was introduced May 28/19 bill C-99, changes make a clear reference to Indigenous people in oath of citizenship.
Bit of a side note. Curious to see the amount of the settlement for the TB plague (1940’s) lawyers representing the “complainants” are asking for $1.1 Billion in fee’s alone on this one.

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 4:22 pm

@#151 Hookshot
“Easy to criticize…and your solution would have been?????”
++++

Oh I dont know.
Maybe NOT reward them for their criminality, Not do ANOTHER back room deal with criminals that illegally block the national rail lines.
You know.
Grow a spine?
Follow the law and arrest them.
Fill the jails?
Let Bleeding Hearts …bleed as Papa Trudeau once said?

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.20 at 4:27 pm

@#155 yup
“not a mil and apparently you are the whiner.”
++++

I’m sorry.
I didnt realize you mentally strained yourself thinking up and then spelling your name.

Not a Millennial eh? But you commiserate with the whining contingent.
Sad.
Not to worry. If Trudeau keeps going the way he is…..we should relive the 70’s and 80’s fairly soon.

Good Times.

#192 IHCTD9 on 03.05.20 at 4:29 pm

#183 Damifino on 03.05.20 at 2:29 pm
#178 IHCTD9

Yep, I know several Boomers who were in the middle of wrapping up their careers when the GFC hit – Poof!
——————————

I retired in 2007. In the autumn of 2008 came the GFC. Poof! I lost about $200 K in a few months.

I was advised not to sell into a storm and didn’t. A little over a year later all losses had returned. A few years after that… Voilà! I’m up $100 K in spite of drawing retirement funds. These days, still way, way, up even after CV hit town.

From poof to voilà. From voilà to poof. You roll with it.
___

Yep, our Portfolio went Poof also, but we still had jobs and a regular income.

Then my job went Poof too!

#193 CR Jones on 03.05.20 at 7:15 pm

This whole thing is epic. Way too much fun. My friend George is yugely entertained. Please do keep up your excellent work, if only for the comic relief.

#194 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 7:33 pm

RE# 156.

I live in my car in Barrie, Ontario and I will be 60 years old this summer. I spent from 1982 to now building stairs at market wage rates and Canada is no workers paradise. It is a civil servants, real estate agents, doctor or lawyer and pen pushers paradise. It is a nation whose founding peoples are heading for extinction because they made real estate an investment and pretended that good pay for working men causes inflation. Pay for skilled labor is 40 to 60 year out of date relative to the cost of living.

#195 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 8:19 pm

RE#167
I am no troll and I did spend a few years on framing crews in the early 1980 s after skills training at Georgian College and the wage rates were $5 to $6 an hour as a carpenters helper and I got ripped off by fly by night employers and others who viewed any man willing to work as being a mere slave to be underpaid and laid off when not needed. My first job doing stairs in 1982 paid me $4 per hour and I had to work out the pay roll deductions for my pay and record the amounts for my employer who was an expert stair builder. He didn’t make money that year or so he claimed and at age 22 I had to live with my parents until they were posted to Winnipeg in 1983. 1983 was the year from hell for me. I barely qualified for UI that winter and I managed to get 6 jobs that year. One of those employers had to be sued. In this country if you work hard and play the game you get screwed over and you don’t live here…. That is part of what Canada is all about.
1984 was a year mostly of marking time until I was
called back to work doing stairs. My pay rose to $15 an hour by 1996 as a small supplier of labor and then it leveled off from 1996 to the present and of course the hours were variable. 0 to 40 hours a week generally.
Boomers do know what depressions and hard times are for me it started when I entered the labor force in 1978 getting a dollar per day as a 2nd year Katimavik participant and that is the truth like it or not.

#196 Steven Rowlandson on 03.05.20 at 8:36 pm

RE#171
In the light of the ice age cycle one should be aware that Canada has a shelf life and many of our gripes will one day be academic. Even the natives will become live refugees or they will be staying. Same thing for the rest of us.