Living with stupid

Canadian interest rates slashed by a half-point: Details

Silly people storming Costco. Hoarding toilet paper. Amassing bottled water. Vacuuming shelves of rubber gloves and useless facemasks. As the media drumbeat about the virus continues and grows louder, all perspective is lost.

Yes it’s new and scary. Germs be like that. But look at China. A country of 1.4 billion with fewer than 80,000 cases, where daily infections are now plunging. The epicentre of Wuhan has 11 million souls, most of the cases and a few thousand deaths. If that’s about the worst it gets – with 99.8% of the population surviving this thing, then are people in Burnaby in a flap and Hoovering local stores?

What drives rational people to speculate two-thirds of humanity could be infected and hundreds of millions fall over?

Fear, of course. Fueled by social media and stoked with ignorance, the virus crisis advances.

“My students are scared to death,” says blog dog Carol, who teaches at a post-secondary institution. “I think you can check the validity of all that I am telling my students – and if true, with your huge following, it might be worthwhile if you could get it out there.  Reducing panic is one of the critical first steps in dealing with this virus when/if the time comes.”

Here is her letter to the students:

This virus has been over-hyped – 1.3 billion Chinese and fewer than 100,000 have contracted it.  About 3,000 have died since December – more people die of traffic accidents every day – Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day.  The flu, which you are far more likely to catch, kills 3,500 on average every year in Canada and the 2018-2019 flu season killed over 34,000 in the US – yet no one panics every year as we enter flu season.

Next, COVID 19 deaths, like for the flu, have been largely restricted to the extremely elderly and to the immune compromised – people more likely to die anyways – and to health care workers who are stressed, over-worked, and constantly exposed to the virus.  Driving, by contrast, kills and injures lots of young and healthy people – you should probably be far more afraid of getting into a car than of this virus.

So, if your cupboards are stocked in anticipation of the potential for stupid, and you follow basic hygiene – keep your hands washed whenever you go outside, or someone visits – you will probably be fine.  Don’t bother with masks if you are not ill – they are NOT designed stop a virus from entering your lungs.   The masks are instead designed to keep-in droplets when sick people sneeze, cough or snuffle – so, their primary use is for if you are already sick.  The benefit to a healthy person of a mask is to prevent you from wiping your eyes/nose with dirty hands.  This effect is easily copied – tie a scarf around your mouth and nose and buy a pair of safety goggles from Canadian Tire.  Don’t touch your face with your hands, unless you first wash them well with soap and water.

People are freaking-out because hand-sanitizer is sold-out at their local drugstore. It’s just alcohol … so buy a cheap bottle of really dry white wine or some rubbing alcohol  – put it into a small container – and voila, you have hand sanitizer! (In a pinch, perfume and cough syrup contain high quantities of alcohol, but (a) stink and (b) are sticky.)   That having been said, plain soap (don’t waste money on anything special) and water are far more effective than alcohol in cleansing your hands.

Okay, enough with today’s health tips. Nobody should fear death, since that’s unlikely (from the virus, anyway). But you should be worried about stupid. Hoarding instead of sharing is stupid, for example. Wearing a mask walking the pooch. That’s dumb. So is trashing your investment assets and going into cash. Or vexing, fretting or panicking about stuff you can’t control or influence.

Now, what about Mr. Market and your portfolio?

The news is this: central banks have started to react. As we told you they would. The Fed chopped its key rate a big half-point today and the Bank of Moosehead goes tomorrow. There are more chops coming, with US rates heading down again in the next few months and our guys trimming once more in April. As a result bond prices have jumped and bond yields cratered. The Canada five-year fell through 1% today…

US, Canada bond yields dive below 1% on Fed cut

The G7 finance dudes (including Chateau Bill) shared a conference call Tuesday morning and pledged to act together. Fed boss Jerome Powell had a presser to explain the rate cut. His comments that the mess would last “for some time” sent Mr. Market into a funk, igniting another sell-off since investors want a quick fix for everything. So, as this blog told you last week, the downdraft ain’t over yet.

But here’s the point me and Carol want to make.

You can wash your hands and stay healthy, but you can’t save China or the stock market. Understand that every time there’s a crisis it’s followed by a resolution. And emotion is not your friend. Especially fear. Carol’s students probably have no investment portfolios, and no financial exposure to current events. No jobs to lose. No skin in the game yet. But they’re scared to death – of a germ that even if they caught (unlikely to ever happen) they will survive (of course).

By the way, don’t bother posting scary, emotional comments about looming mass death. I’ve just sterilized my delete finger.

 

234 comments ↓

#1 bob on 03.03.20 at 4:05 pm

Oh Garth, you missed the punchline.

You should have concluded that we should fear living too long and running out of money!

#2 Ubul on 03.03.20 at 4:08 pm

A country of 1.4 billion with fewer than 80,000 cases, where daily infections are now plunging.

—-

Canada would never take those measures that China took to get where they are now. Neither did Italy.

#3 mj on 03.03.20 at 4:09 pm

hsbc dropped the 5 years fixed to 2.29, let’s see who will drop lower next week

#4 Jake Shandel on 03.03.20 at 4:11 pm

I see the Dow Jones falling to 20,000, S&P 500 2,500, Nasdaq 7,000 in the end of March-2020 and TSX will be 14,000 by the end of March-2020.

Watch and learn how strong the economy is guys.

#5 Dmitry on 03.03.20 at 4:12 pm

“What drives rational people to speculate two-thirds of humanity could be infected and hundreds of millions fall over?

Fear, of course.”

There is another explanation that you might want to consider- looking at facts and numbers and making rational conclusions from those. Branding “rational people” as you say with words like “fear” and “panic” is not a constructive argument. Rational people would not be driven by fear nor by denial…

P.S. hundreds of millions won’t fall over, people will self-isolate before we get to hundreds of millions even if governments don’t force such isolation. Getting numbers you are quoting in China is possible with measures like those taken by China. So far no country could bring itself up to match those measures. This has to change globally and promptly in order to avoid fatalities in hundreds of thousands.

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 4:12 pm

Great photo …..

#7 Millennial Homeowner on 03.03.20 at 4:13 pm

Since they will be lowering rates, is it a good time to load up on houses since people will be borrowing more and buying more the prices of houses will be going up?

It seems like a winining move. This is how Buffett invests in stocks, why not do the same thing with Canadian houses.

#8 Andrewski on 03.03.20 at 4:14 pm

Some people are losing their minds over this virus, the same one’s who are selling their investments to sit on cash until the market bounces back!?

#9 Friedman's Ghost on 03.03.20 at 4:16 pm

Almost through the Netflix Roman Empire series on Commodus. A scary resemblance is forming between him and our great emperor, T2.

I guess most of us know what they say about history repeating…

#10 NotLegalAdvice on 03.03.20 at 4:17 pm

How long we predicting rates to drop and stay down there? 6 months? 1 year?

#11 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.03.20 at 4:18 pm

The Fed IS the problem.

#12 Doug t on 03.03.20 at 4:19 pm

This virus scenario is another great example of social media/internet and the constant bombardment of useless and harmful information – we are hit every waking moment with a tsunami of BS that wreaks havock with our emotions and ability to be logical – we maybe doomed not by this virus but by the 24/7 spread of useless information

#13 Burnaby Boy on 03.03.20 at 4:22 pm

My “emotional, scary comment” is that today President’s Choice Financial Mastercard raised interest rates from 20% to 21%. What happened to zero interest rates?

#14 Justin S on 03.03.20 at 4:23 pm

Question to pose to you all:

33 year old. Most of my wealth is in my Toronto property. About $1.3 million net worth – all in unrealized gains.

With the market doing what it’s doing, I’m considering drawing on my secured LOC – interest rate of 4% and investing in blue chip divy payers at bottom of this dip. I’m looking at $50-75k.

Is this foolish or prudent? I’m a bit concerned with $50k LOC, but I’m expecting dividends to more than fully cover LOC interest and hoping for capital appreciation.

Also, when will bottom be? I feel the economic impacts of this aren’t yet fully understood. EU could get screwed and is Africa prepared to handle it?

#15 just snootin' on 03.03.20 at 4:23 pm

I think the grand disinfect and related paranoia will leave the regular cold/flu season dead in its tracks. I actually feel sorry for viruses. Hope retailers are getting a boost.

The market slowdown was evident in sinking shipping numbers many moons ago. Priorities in consumption are changing, year over year. Got some xsc for my tfsa so I am still participating and not a Buffet with $128B stashed in my sock drawer.

#16 Mr Toilet Paper Man on 03.03.20 at 4:24 pm

Greetings from Germany

I thought the Johnny Carson tee pee joke was funny till you run out of the 5 ply stuff (Germans) and you go to every store in the city and they are sold out, empty pallets of it. No one knows why!

#17 Josh in Calgary on 03.03.20 at 4:26 pm

I’m way more concerned about what the stampeding masses will do than what the actual virus itself will do. Not to mention it’s sure to be front page news for weeks to come.

So that Costco trip we had on our to do list anyways, got done. And we may have bought a few more non-perishables than normal, but all stuff we go through on a regular basis. Can’t be too careful when it comes to the stupidity of groups of people in large numbers.

#18 Bedhead on 03.03.20 at 4:28 pm

It’s not being sick that is the worry. It’s being quarantined and not getting others sick. While the common flu infects far more people every year, there is some herd immunity and medications available. COVID19 has a case fatality rate of 1-3% (vs. 0.1% for 2009 flu pandemic and 2.5% in the US for the Spanish flu). As you’ve often said, it’s the uncertainty that is causing fear.

Having quarantines everywhere limits both production and consumption but once this passes, combined with the Fed actions, the pent up demand is gonna be a huge party heading towards the election.

#19 Camille on 03.03.20 at 4:28 pm

No doom and gloom, just patience. As previously mentioned, when China improves, reducing infections day by day, it will be better, I think. CBC sounds like it’s completely panicking in afternoon news.

#20 Interesting comment on 03.03.20 at 4:29 pm

Had to laugh about the comment masks are designed to keep germs in, I can hardly wait for the first pictures everyone wearing their masks inside out, ha ha.

I saw on Facebook in an emergency cut your bra in half and cover your mouth. That was funny. Maybe there will be a run on bras now that masks have sold out.

I can just see the men lining up now will that be a double D, get the pun double double as in coffee, only in Canada.

Back to stocks it was wild, time to stop looking.

I still insist the governments self quarantine is stupid, everyone who gets off a plane from any infected country should be tested period. It’s the easiest way to stop it.

I remember Y2K people going out and filing barrels with gas.
All fun and laughter now but I am more worried about people panicking. This is the real worry today and the panic will only get worst as you saw in Burnaby.

Happy trading.
Cheers
Bra less in BC

#21 Interesting commet on 03.03.20 at 4:31 pm

Sorry I typed my email wrong again gosh must be laughing to hard, this is two gays in a row

Had to laugh about the comment masks are designed to keep germs in, I can hardly wait for the first pictures everyone wearing their masks inside out, ha ha.

I saw on Facebook in an emergency cut your bra in half and cover your mouth. That was funny. Maybe there will be a run on bras now that masks have sold out.

I can just see the men lining up now will that be a double D, get the pun double double as in coffee, only in Canada.

Back to stocks it was wild, time to stop looking.

I still insist the governments self quarantine is stupid, everyone who gets off a plane from any infected country should be tested period. It’s the easiest way to stop it.

I remember Y2K people going out and filing barrels with gas.
All fun and laughter now but I am more worried about people panicking. This is the real worry today and the panic will only get worst as you saw in Burnaby.

Happy trading.
Cheers
Bra less in BC

#22 Asterix1 on 03.03.20 at 4:31 pm

The RE industry is powerful! Does not take long for them to get their lies and extremely biased articles out. NO surprise here, MSM publishes it instantly, without a inch of criticism or analysis.

BNN Headline (Front page) “Virus-driven rate cut could add kerosene to housing market”

Who is quoted in the fluff piece “article”:

– John Pasalis, Realosophy Realty
– Robert McLister, mortgage broker
– Jonathan Bundle, head of mortgages, HSBC Bank
– Vancouver realtor Jerry Huang
– Kevin Wang, RE adviser, W Brothers Real Estate Group

Wow! Total garbage! Should not be published!!!

#23 Oscar on 03.03.20 at 4:31 pm

Nice to see someone reviewing the current virus obsession with an objective perspective!

It is astonishing the damage that can by done to the world economy by what comes down to a seven day flu bug”.

Amazing stock buying opportunity coming up though!

#24 jerry on 03.03.20 at 4:32 pm

Take a moment to thank a nurse, a personal support worker, a kitchen and nutritional worker, the receptionist at the medical clinic and others who will for certain be the ones who will provide direct close care contact to the inevitable cases that will show up in nursing homes, the community and hospitals.

Count your lucky stars if it is not you. Those folks have to go back and do it all over again and again and again. Plus return home and take care of their own families!

#25 NoName on 03.03.20 at 4:33 pm

Interesting read

history, magnetic mind controlling machines, paranoa, politicians, tech companies and murder of the soul…

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/we-all-wear-tinfoil-hats-now

And on a side note if soul is like radio wave, its doesnt last forever it deteriorates with distance and time, best example of inverse square low.

#26 TurnerNation on 03.03.20 at 4:33 pm

“The rat has escaped”/The Fed has lost control over this market imo. Final, sickening plunge this week with panicked margin call selling imo.
Enjoy your evening all BTW ;-)

#27 just snootin' on 03.03.20 at 4:36 pm

ps. We used to catch flying dogs the same way when were kids, using a net, a garden hose, and a paving stone. Good times.

#28 Franco on 03.03.20 at 4:39 pm

Excellent post Garth, thanks for bringing me down back to Earth.

#29 Piano_Man87 on 03.03.20 at 4:42 pm

I agree with all except the 0.2% death rate (you said 99.8% survive). Although it is a constantly changing math problem to solve, based on the present numbers the case fatality rate is somewhere between 1 and 4%.

With SARS, the WHO announced a CFR of 3% but they were much too early with their announcement, since it ended up being 9.6%. So they aren’t saying anything yet.

More info here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That said, I agree on how there is no need to panic.

The rate I quoted was of the population at large (based on the Wuhan experience), not the minority of people who get the bug. – Garth

#30 Got the flu on a plane on 03.03.20 at 4:43 pm

So some stupid idiot had the flu and I’m was sitting beside him on a flight from Toronto to Calgary.
Tuesday Feb 25
Now I am sick as a dog,
Your should be ashamed of yourself for travelling while sick and at the very least you should have a mask on to keep the germs to yourself.
I hope you read this a feel like crap for spreading you germs.

#31 KNOW IT ALL on 03.03.20 at 4:46 pm

DELETED

#32 MF on 03.03.20 at 4:48 pm

DELETED

#33 Seeker on 03.03.20 at 4:49 pm

Any thoughts of moving things like an RESP into something safer at this point, as money will be pulled out this September, it is in balanced medium risk mutual funds, the bank mentioned moving it to bonds or bigger companies with less risk. Just thinking about it because it is a short term plan, so don’t want to lose at this point, or maybe just leave it?

#34 Dave on 03.03.20 at 4:51 pm

I the BOC is going to reduce rates then the government should counter it increasing the stress test.

Canada does not need more real estate debt – prices are too high and the debt is killer.

Just left the Federal Reserve do all the heavy lifting in the economy – BOC should leave rates as is!!!

#35 Piet on 03.03.20 at 4:52 pm

It may not be valid to make global inferences from evidence based mainly on what has been happening in China. The Chinese are demonstrating that their society is capable of responding to a crisis situation in a highly coordinated manner. So far we’re not seeing much of a coordinated response in North America. The Chinese strategy of isolating cities and ordering people to stay in their homes is unlikely to work in NA. These differences between China and other countries suggest that the effects of the pandemic may end up being worse in NA than has so far been the case in China.
Communist countries seem to be capable of mobilizing very rapid responses when there is a threat of an epidemic. While travelling in Vietnam about three weeks ago we observed the government taking dramatic actions to stop the spread of the virus, even though there were only about a dozen cases reported in the country. They closed all the schools, told citizens to wear masks, stopped air transport from China, and implemented widespread measures to screen travellers for fever. Upon checking into hotels we had our temperature tested and were given masks and were asked to wear them in crowded settings. These proactive measures seem to have been effective, as today Vietnam reports that they have no active cases.

#36 FreeBird on 03.03.20 at 4:52 pm

Kids: Mommy, daddy come see what the dog did! We didn’t do it…promise!!

Mom: OM*G! We turned our backs for 5 MINUTES?!

Dad: That’s great! Now let me see you get him out…

(This picture helped. Despite. Anyway : ))

#37 wallflower on 03.03.20 at 4:53 pm

I am tad concerned
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/manitoba-liberal-leader-calls-on-ottawa-to-forgive-personal-government-debts-247959/?oly_enc_id=3803B9480278G0W

#38 Tyberius on 03.03.20 at 5:02 pm

“…don’t bother posting scary, emotional comments about looming mass death. I’ve just sterilized my delete finger.”

And I’d wager it’s the longest one!

Having some cash during a crisis, real or perceived, is probably a good idea.
BTW I had some weird virus back in November – had me laid out for 2 weeks (and I hardly ever get sick).
I was thinking that maybe I was the one who started it all! Symptoms different but hey, doctors couldn’t say what it was!

#39 north shore on 03.03.20 at 5:04 pm

#30 Got the flu on a plane

Dont be so stupid! Your most contagious before any signs are shown.

#40 Beavista on 03.03.20 at 5:05 pm

Right, no need to panic. If you have a mom or dad in their 70’s and the death rate is a hair away from 10% why should you panic? And if they have pre-existing medical conditions you should worry less and “grow a pair” so your portfolio will continue to succeed?

Cooler heads don’t always prevail. Human history tells us this. The market is subject to the smallest of sentiments, as we have seen many times, who is to say that society as a whole can not reach a tipping point? I am certainly not one to preach doom and gloom, but everyone getting sick en masse and the economy taking a subsequent tumble seem to be closer at this point that at any time in my 50 years or so. Nothing about this is comforting, least not the fact that we have been told face masks are “useless” yet you see literally everyone wearing one in flu hotspot. I mean come on, at least don’t lie to us. The government needs them and has failed to prepare. Wow. I am even more reassured.

I prepared long ago, and now no one seems to laugh at my “prepper ways”, and still believe in the ability of people to cooperate during difficult times and am more optimistic and sane than all the people flocking to costco now, when they should have bought up groceries months and years ago.

If you are prepared, smug and safe, why did you come here to scare others? Jerk. – Garth

#41 FreeBird on 03.03.20 at 5:06 pm

Down under hoard TP plus rubber gloves (has to be a joke in there somewhere)…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-outbreak-why-are-australians-panic-buying-toilet-paper/news-story/ae5304742e880cb0a0b6f86de1252f0d

Same in Japan and HK…

https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3050862/coronavirus-do-not-hoard-toilet-paper-rolls-they-can-get

https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/japan-asks-residents-to-stop-hoarding-toilet-paper-amid-coronavirus-fears/amp/

#42 not 1st on 03.03.20 at 5:09 pm

This all brought to you by the same folks that believe the earth will burn in 12 yrs or that Trump will start WW3. CNN, MSNBC, CBC, CTV WaPo, NYT, Torstar, G&M etc etc.

Sleazy peddlers of hysteria.

But they have found a ripe new audience because most people these days are just fearful lumps of jelly walking around and easy pickings. I mean the general population $200 from insolvency each month, well that’s a group that’s easy to lead.

#43 pathcontrolmonk on 03.03.20 at 5:11 pm

Disinfecting your hands with “really dry white wine” is at least as stupid as hoarding masks. Even Gray Goose doesn’t meet the disinfectant standard of 70% alcohol.

#44 1255 on 03.03.20 at 5:14 pm

The flu/pneumonia is the 3rd leading cause of death in the world. 3 million+ die every year across the globe.

This virus is 20 times more deadly.

I think people should be taking it more seriously. Especially the ‘stable genius’.

#45 leebow on 03.03.20 at 5:17 pm

Oh the eternal conflict – man against the nature. The Old Man fights the fish and the whole sea, Manny the Mammoth fights the flood. Garth fights stupidity.

The Old Man will reach the shore but lose the fish, Manny the Mammoth will board the boat and find love. Stupidity is unbeatable.

May be the kids still have some of that cheap white left. Disgusting, but dulls the pain of defeat.

#46 Stone on 03.03.20 at 5:21 pm

I will say the folks at Costco know what they’re doing. When I went shopping over the weekend, they handed out wipes to wipe down the shopping cart handles. They know customer service and how to make their shoppers feel at ease.

And, they had tons of TP. They had pallets galore in lots of aisles. There too, they’re prepared for armageddon. Two thumbs up!!

Other retailers could learn a thing or two from them. Strange how they don’t.

#47 KNOW IT ALL on 03.03.20 at 5:22 pm

DELETED

#48 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.03.20 at 5:24 pm

The Fed pumped $100-billion into repo markets plus cut rates by 1/2 a percent in one day and markets still tanked and Trump is still screaming for more.

Maybe putting a 4 times bankrupt idiot in charge of the largest treasury in the world wasnt such a good idea after all.

#49 Sold Out on 03.03.20 at 5:26 pm

#39 north shore on 03.03.20 at 5:04 pm
#30 Got the flu on a plane

Dont be so stupid! Your most contagious before any signs are shown.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Maybe go easy on the insults there, sport. Per the CDC:

Period of Contagiousness

You may be able to pass on flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick.

People with flu are most contagious in the first 3-4 days after their illness begins.

Some otherwise healthy adults may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 5 to 7 days after becoming sick.
Some people, especially young children and people with weakened immune systems, might be able to infect others with flu viruses for an even longer time.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htm

#50 eduardo de la conche on 03.03.20 at 5:27 pm

#21 “this is two gays in a row”

Oh my, Sulu approves this comment ;-)

#51 neo on 03.03.20 at 5:29 pm

This emergency 50 basis point cut happened today because the Repo market was blowing up again the last 24 hours. The same issue they have been trying to calm down since last October since “Not QE” started and the 20% decline. This Coronavirus is materially impactful economically but there is something else going on here because Gold has been in a bull market and treasuries yields have been falling well before COVID-19. At some point it would be nice if Ryan would address this in a Blog post to provide some colour on this. It’s pretty obvious there is a big fish euro bank that starts with D under severe stress.

#52 Bob Dog on 03.03.20 at 5:30 pm

DELETED

#53 Cdn Mom on 03.03.20 at 5:32 pm

Whoopeeeee! Must renew the mortgage by mid-July. Hoping for a nice 10 year rate! Added bonus: peaceful waterfront property (Fitzgerald rests on the horizon), mortgage is less than our rent was on a 2 bdrm apartment in metro Van back in 1998.

No fear left in me for COVID 19, all used up on SARS. TP will be purchased as needed.

#54 G man on 03.03.20 at 5:36 pm

DELETED

#55 GrumpyPanda on 03.03.20 at 5:37 pm

DELETED

#56 Treasure Island CEO - 155,534,535.88 Offshore on 03.03.20 at 5:39 pm

Canada 5-year hitting 0.89

US Fed 50 point cut and the dow still tanks 800 points.

Mad Money Cramer says he is very nervous.

BoC needs to cut 100 basis points.

Anyone crapping their pants yet?

#57 johnny on 03.03.20 at 5:45 pm

Ahh Garth I told you at least three times over the past 2 years that interest rates cannot stay above 2 or 3 percent long as there is just way too much debt in the system. The supposed strong economy in the USA, Canada and in much of the world is a farce based on emergency level interest rates,

Coronavirus has just exposed how weak the financial system really is.I, repeat, Garth, if the economy was so strong why do interest rates need to be kept at historically record levels for over 10 years.

Whats even more messed up is we arelikely goimg to negative rates because the Brainiacs at the Fed have backed themselves into a corner. They just keep creating bigger and bigger asset bubbles..one day..likely not quite yet..the bubble popping will usher in a crippling depression.

Since when have recessions been outlawed..they used to happen quite regularly..now the Fed panics over the thrrat of a recession caused by an overhyped virus..the emperor has no clothes Garth.

#58 Anc123 on 03.03.20 at 5:49 pm

Asterix1 on 03.03.20 at 4:31 pm
The RE industry is powerful! Does not take long for them to get their lies and extremely biased articles out. NO surprise here, MSM publishes it instantly, without a inch of criticism or analysis.

BNN Headline (Front page) “Virus-driven rate cut could add kerosene to housing market”

Who is quoted in the fluff piece “article”:

– John Pasalis, Realosophy Realty
– Robert McLister, mortgage broker
– Jonathan Bundle, head of mortgages, HSBC Bank
– Vancouver realtor Jerry Huang
– Kevin Wang, RE adviser, W Brothers Real Estate Group

Wow! Total garbage! Should not be published!!!

———

Why is it garbage . Seems rational to me that with lower rates will come higher RE prices . Borrowing is practically free and rents will cover your borrowing costs.

Here’s my ‘ garbage ‘ . GTA prices 10% higher , stock market 20 % lower before year end .

#59 Yukon Elvis on 03.03.20 at 5:51 pm

I am reminded of a bunch of kids sitting around a campfire telling scary stories and trying to scare the crap out of each other. And the media is the biggest scaremonger. We are gonna be fine. Just take normal precautions.

#60 Borden Renter on 03.03.20 at 5:52 pm

This isn’t “just a flu”. That’s disingenuous.

Whole regions of countries aren’t locked down for “just a flu”. Factories don’t close over seasonal flu, nor do whole school districts shut down. If I recall correctly, the death rate in Wuhan was about 2.9%. Once Chinese authorities enacted draconian control measures, this rate dropped to that of the normal flu, 0.4% once everyone was locked down. I am not overly confident of that happening here or anywhere else in the developed world. We’ll see how well Italy makes out when this is all said and done.

If masks don’t work for the non infected then why do medical staff wear them?

If social media is a purveyor of paranoia, then the MSM is the conveyor of false calm. Telling everyone it’s “just a flu, bro” is just as dishonest as telling people to panic. People should be prepared to stay in isolation for a week, ideally. Even the Vancouver.ca website makes this recommendation (for disaster prep), yet anyone stocking up is viewed negatively as a “paranoid prepper”. The only mistakes these Costco shoppers are making is prepping too late, and buying too much TP.

Anyway, this thing could very well be back with avengence come the fall, or it couldn’t. I’m not worried because there’s nothing I can do to stop it. I will have a couple weeks worth of food still in the pantry though.

Call me crazy…

#61 Danielle DiMartino Booth on 03.03.20 at 5:54 pm

We had 7 consecutive days when there were no investment grade bonds issued in the U.S. That is extraordinary to see.

This happened during the Lehman collapse.

#62 IHCTD9 on 03.03.20 at 5:55 pm

#7 Millennial Homeowner on 03.03.20 at 4:13 pm
Since they will be lowering rates, is it a good time to load up on houses since people will be borrowing more and buying more the prices of houses will be going up?

It seems like a winining move. This is how Buffett invests in stocks, why not do the same thing with Canadian houses.
——-

Maybe in the GTA or YVR where fear knocks together the knees of its fair citizens.

Just realize it could just as easily be the financial @ss kicking of your life as opposed to the winning lotto ticket.

The rules are easy: If these two re markets bubble like gangbusters again, and the typical sfd shack is worth 5-6 million in 20 years, you win.

Anything else happens, you lose, and with no possible way to recover.

#63 Mike in Airdrie on 03.03.20 at 5:57 pm

So how do we profit from stupid? Buy the companies that make toilet paper and hand sanitizer?

I was thinking the 4%+ yield on major banks is looking pretty tasty vs the pathetic highly taxed interest paid by parking your cash at those same institutions. Any thoughts?

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 5:59 pm

#30 Got the flu on a plane

Perhaps the person couldn’t afford to change/ postpone flights.

Perhaps the person was travelling home…..are they supposed to stay in Toronto so YOU maybe dont get sick?

Perhaps you could have moved to another seat.

Perhaps you could have washed your hands, worn gloves or brought a mask for such an eventuality.

So many possibilities for the reasonably intelligent….

I’m flying next week and plan on bringing latex gloves and a mask to wear IF my seating companions are sick as some blog dogs….

Cant avoid taking the flight so….. I might as well be as prepared as is reasonably expected…

Enjoy the flu.

#65 JSK on 03.03.20 at 5:59 pm

The virus affects stressed and overworked people?
Well, that makes 100% of us susceptible. As for not much deadlier than regular flu… guess what. You can get both. This is not a replacement disease but something in addition to all the wonderful seasonal infections we get.

Panic? Well, what do you expect people to do? Just wait for the government to fix everything? Sure. You know how confident the populus is in willingness and ability of our sacred leaders to handle a crisis. People panic because they do not trust authorities to handle this properly.

As for numbers coming out of China, what credibility do they carry? The country that builds ghost towns to pad GDP stats is going to be upfront and honest about the extent of the disease? Now that’s really funny.

Wait for them to lift quarantines and then you can speak of recovery. And do we have a vaccine? Nope. Even if/when one is discovered, how long would it take to vaccinate people? The cure is not going to be distributed immediately and even when it does show up, expect the same thing to happen to it as with face masks. People with money will get their treatment first and everyone else gets to wait in line.

This crazy buying of products will expedite supply line shock caused by lack of exports coming out of China. We’re about to find out which of the items that are gone off the shelves came off shore. As someone joked online – there will not be shortage of hand sanitizer, but there’ll be shortage of Chinese plastic bottles that it comes in.

This crisis is a hydra. Fun times ahead. Stay healthy, and enjoy the show.

#66 Sold Out on 03.03.20 at 6:03 pm

#56 Treasure Island CEO – 155,534,535.88 Offshore on 03.03.20 at 5:39pm

Anyone crapping their pants yet?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Not since a bout of norovirus several years ago.

Sweet Fancy Moses, people. Get a grip. Us old(er) farts have been through Y2K, SARS, MERS, GFC, H1N1, and the legalization of weed. None, I repeat, none of the hysteria was borne out.

It’s not different this time. Even if things get pretty bad, panicking helps no one. And makes you look like a wuss. Is that how you want to be remembered?

#67 Simulated on 03.03.20 at 6:04 pm

DELETED

#68 not 1st on 03.03.20 at 6:05 pm

Chateau Bill just on TV saying economy is very strong as 5 yr bond yields sink below 1%. The next 2 quarters of GDP in Canada will be negative or zero at the best. There is your Liberal recession that people have been warning about for 5 yrs. Economy is papered over with Trudeaus massive debt.

Trudeau was bluntly reminded in the HoC this week that when his dad tried to torpedo the west he ended up causing a recession across the country. Watch history repeat itself with stunning accuracy but much more destruction.

We should scrape a few extra billion out of the treasury and pay one of Trumps kids to run the country.

#69 IHCTD9 on 03.03.20 at 6:08 pm

All the Prepper channels on YouTube are going bonkers and cashing in big time!

#70 GrumpyPanda on 03.03.20 at 6:11 pm

W.H.O. just reported a worldwide fatality rate of 3.4%. Restrictions imposed by China will not fly here. Political correctness will take precedence over public safety. How’s that Garth?

#71 benji on 03.03.20 at 6:13 pm

WHOPPER 0.5% Fed rate cut

Stox dump 3%

Is this the big swing?

#72 Flywest29 on 03.03.20 at 6:15 pm

People are the worst. Its amazing we have come as far as we have.

#73 Smartalox on 03.03.20 at 6:16 pm

I ave to agree with #43: the alcohol content of wine (7 to 13%) or liquor (40%) is not sufficient to act as a reliable sterilant. Instead, take internally and it may make you feel better.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (cdc.gov) the virus-neutralizing, bacteria-neutralizing and fungus-neutralizing properties of alcohol are greatly reduced if diluted to less than 50% in water. Minimum effective concentration is 60% to 90%. Commercial preparations (i.e.: hand sanitzer) are at 70%.

Alcohol should really only be considered for sterilizing hard surfaces; hand-washing and not touching your face are much more effective for avoiding infection.

For most people, this is all that is required.

Only people like health-care workers, and those on the front lines caring for sick people really require additional personal protective equipment.

#74 BobC on 03.03.20 at 6:16 pm

Does China think it’s over? If so it seems some on here will be disappointed. I can only shake my head and wonder…

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-closes-makeshift-hospital-china-cases-drop-12490222

#75 COVFEFE-19 on 03.03.20 at 6:24 pm

BNN Headline (Front page) “Virus-driven rate cut could add kerosene to housing market”

Yep. It should hardly need explaining, but here goes:
1) Primary effects
– lower interest rates mean a bigger mortgage for the same monthly
– reduction in the stress test means some qualify for a bigger monthly
– a big*, fast* -10% shock in the stock market after a long period of rising prices with low volatility will shake out some equity profit takers, fer shure. Rebalance into real estate. (* – big compared to recent action)
– parents will be telling the kids to go with safe real estate versus scary, volatile stocks
– COVFEFE-19 + big stock shock drives people to local, understandable, tangible bricks and mortar. JUST LIKE post-9/11, and post-GFC (outside of US housing meltdown). Central banks have their backs.

2) Secondary effects
Conventional wisdom is that it takes 12-18 months for reduced interest rates to work their way through the economy.
However, in Canada, I believe the action is faster, today. If RE in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver pop 7-11% this spring, it gives every stretched household the opportunity to bump the HELOC and spend it on whatever. 3-6 month economic feedback, versus traditional 12-18.

Do I think this is healthy, long term or short? Who cares? That’s how it will probably play out.

#76 Retro Marxist on 03.03.20 at 6:25 pm

Capitalism supporting capitalists:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

#77 COVFEFE-19 on 03.03.20 at 6:28 pm

Ah, sorry, forgot to mention. I don’t know how hard it is to get money out of Iran and China right now, relative to the last five years, but I imagine there are a lot of creative minds working on the problem, and the Powers That Be are distracted with other problems.

But Macau casinos are out, LOL.

#78 Not the Apocalpyse2020 Dude on 03.03.20 at 6:31 pm

“By the way, don’t bother posting scary, emotional comments about looming mass death. I’ve just sterilized my delete finger.”

Loved that comment. Hope you permanently ban or ghost that doomsayer and all the others like him/her.

#79 Nonplused on 03.03.20 at 6:37 pm

Great now there will be a run on safety glasses.

Carol is correct of course except the bit about wine. What a sticky mess that would be. Vodka is much better for that purpose. You should have a case of that on hand anyway because it helps pass the time when quarantined and it doesn’t go bad (not around here anyway). But remember it is flammable.

From what I have been reading it is possible that many more people might get Corona than a typical flu because it is new so the herd does not have any immunity, but the severity is trending towards a normal flu so everybody is not going to die. Eventually the herd immunity will rise and as it does transmission rates will fall and it will be just another flu they put in the annual vaccinations.

Speaking of stupid, I just read a poll that found 38% of people would no longer drink a Corona beer because of the virus. The only explanation for that could be the taste, you do need a lime to drink it (which is an excellent source of vitamin C). You can’t get a virus from a beer unless the server infected the bottle and in that case it doesn’t matter what you are drinking. Coffee would do it. So save some money and stay away from Starbucks.

#80 Foothills Red on 03.03.20 at 6:43 pm

Garth, you may want to do a piece on “since when is housing a market” , in my crew and raising, housing was shelter, a nice thing to have to live and raise a family. Dad said, you live in it, if you’re lucky you get your money back, and you have shelter security for you and yours. We somehow have evolved to an “asset” , expectation of appreciation, false. And everyone talking about housing market. Wow, things are upside down, my opinion. You could make case better perhaps, but, it’s shelter, plain and simple. NOT a market asset. Yeesh. :-)

#81 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.03.20 at 6:47 pm

DELETED

#82 Smartalox on 03.03.20 at 6:48 pm

Interesting article comparing Covid 19 to the 1918-1919 Spanish flu, and why history is unlikely to repeat itself:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

– in 1918, the cause of the flu (i.e.: a virus) was unknown. Everyone had a theory on the cause – from the alignment of the planets, to bacteria, or tainted oats from Russia.
– In 2019: the virus was quickly isolated, its genes sequenced, and its probable source determined in a matter of days. This information was then quickly and reliably shared with teams of infectious disease researchers and prevention agencies around the world (went viral? too soon?) who have set to work on a vaccine.

– in 1918, the virus killed its victims by leaving them vulnerable to secondary bacterial infections (pneumonia mostly, but also tuberculosis, smallpox, typhus, etc.). In 2019, these bacterial ‘infections of opportunity’ can be treated with antibiotics (developed in the 1940’s and 50s) – patients can be sick, and not get sicker.

– in 1918, sick people were ‘isolated’ by the dozens in large wards, where secondary diseases transmit much more effectively. Medical equipment (instruments, thermometers, needles, etc.) was re-used on one patient after another, without re-sterilization. In 2019, sick people are isolated from those that are not. Physicians wear masks, eye protection, gowns when dealing with patients, then those items are removed and discarded before moving to the next patient, so as not to spread the infection to others. It’s only in cases where isolation rules were NOT followed (Diamond Princess, letting infected crew members go from cabin to cabin unprotected) that large numbers of cases developed in small spaces.

– in 1918, people who lived in cities lived in much higher density conditions – making transmission much more probable. In 2019 people still pack into public transit, but for a lot of people (say what you will about our society) it is rare that they have contact with others. Those that commute alone in their cars, from suburban home to suburban office, might actually go days before being in close contact with another person.

So, the outlook is definitely NOT the same. Medical practice, technology, culture and understanding have come a long way in the last 100 years, and that’s why we call it ‘progress’ – for those that are willing to accept it.

I DO, however, wonder how many people who refuse to vaccinate their children, are also the ones panicking and hoarding toilet paper from Costco.

#83 joblo on 03.03.20 at 6:55 pm

“Living with stupid”
was hoping for ways to cope with the Lieberal gubermint.

#84 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 7:00 pm

I had strep throat in 2013 – memorable because I was prepping for a 6 month sail and used the doc visit to get extra Amoxicillin and T3’s for the trip.

Don’t recall being sick since then…

Must be living right

#85 SmarterSquirrel on 03.03.20 at 7:07 pm

I am not worried about the virus itself. I still walk to the neighbourhood cafe without a mask, get my latte and sit and sip and stare out the window. I wash my hands more and avoid touching my face.

But I want to be realistic about the impact of govt and people reacting to the virus. Looking at Beijing and Shanghai footage and seeing those cities almost completely devoid of people (and I’ve spent time in Beijing back in 1999 when it was jam packed with people so seeing empty streets 21 years later was shocking) made me think if this is how countries need to deal with the virus to stop it, what does that mean for the US, Canada, the UK and every other country? Given the demand and supply chain issues from China shutting down cities to stop the spread of the virus what happens when the rest of the world does it? What does that mean for economies, revenues and production lines? To me the news to come doesn’t seem good. Eventually this virus will be handled. Even the Spanish flu which really got going in the spring of 1918 was finished by the summer of 1919. So this too will end.

But in the meantime is the OECD right when they hint at a potential global recession?

For me I did a cost/benefit analysis. I could stay invested and on the upside the best I could probably hope for in the next while was a typical 7% market gain to flat, or on the downside will the world have disrupted demand and supply chains and a global recession comes and we see a significant market decline.

I felt the risk of downside was too great and chose to turn to cash. I started selling in January and was 95% in cash by 10:30am on February 24. Doing so allowed me to avoid a portfolio drop of 8.2% as of today’s close. I’ll wait until the cost benefit analysis shows me less downside risk before investing my cash back into the market. I assume that’s after the streets of New York and Toronto look as empty as Beijing and Shanghai looked. Or after active virus cases outside China peak and start to decline. For the last decade I have been invested in the market. This is the first time I’ve ever gone to cash.

#86 SW on 03.03.20 at 7:08 pm

Thanks for your sensible words, Mr. T.

Households in Canada should be prepared for some kind of prolonged emergency event already. This isn’t difficult to understand, but I suppose stoicism is a bit unfashionable.

W.C. Fields apparently said he never let a drop of water pass his lips. When asked how he cleaned his teeth he said something about using white wine. That’s perhaps the only medicinal use for it.

#87 Randy on 03.03.20 at 7:18 pm

Don’t forget Wuhan installed 5G last fall….the cruise ship had 5G…60Ghz is the new kid on the block…2.4 and 2.5 Ghz has been used for a long time in everything wireless. There are virtually zero health studies on 60Ghz used in 5G. It can affect oxygen in the body. 5G requires small towers every couple of hundred feet. I’m glad that I don’t live in a big city where 5G is being introduced…More studies are required.

#88 crazyfox on 03.03.20 at 7:21 pm

What drives rational people to speculate two-thirds of humanity could be infected and hundreds of millions fall over? – Garth

Try the ones behind the scenes ensuring that this does not happen.

By the way, don’t bother posting scary, emotional comments about looming mass death. I’ve just sterilized my delete finger. – Garth

Ok, ok. Lets look at the daunting question of vaccines for COVID-19!

The exploration of how soon a vaccine can be engineered and rolled out for COVID-19 begins with a north American hero few have ever heard of, Maurice Hilleman. Give this man a cigar and a tommy gun and you would never know he’s credited with saving
more lives than any other person in modern medicine in the 20th century:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Hilleman

Maurice is responsible for coming up with vaccines for deadly measles, mumps, hepatitis A & B, chickenpox, meningitis, pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae. Hilleman is acredited with the discovery of genetic drift and shift, a must read to understand the complexities
of creating new vaccines:

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/02/coronavirus-is-bat-coronavirus-with-sars-receptor-and-likely-joined-in-a-lab.html

Hilleman’s brilliance capitalized on the idea that we can take a virus and weaken it and introduce it into the human body so that T cells can easily overwhelm these weakened virus cultures with T cell antigen memory that helps to recognize and kill the healthy virus much more easily with long lasting antigens depending on the type of virus (genetic drift). When we look at vaccination schedules:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_schedule

We see the influences of Hilleman along with other scientists on western modern medicine. With modern medicine driven by need for vaccines against the diseases on these schedules and understanding genetic shift and drift with the diseases in question, we can now see how modern science has unfolded but there are many other virus’s that are not on this list that modern medicine currently doesn’t have a vaccine for and the reasons are twofold. Firstly, it’s demand. A virus that gives a house cat the common cold isn’t practical to spend billions of dollars on and secondly, there are virus’s out there are are extremely difficult to
find a vaccine for. What scientists have done in the past, with luck and brains is pick the low hanging fruit. To understand it one needs to understand genetic drift
and shift, just as Maurice Hilleman did. cont.

#89 Dogman01 on 03.03.20 at 7:23 pm

So I figure: Money has to go somewhere, someone sells = someone buys.

Only five choices
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Gold and Bit Coins etc.
Real Estate (not including REITS)

Cash loses to inflation
Bonds barely keep up to inflation (negative rates anyone)
Real Estate is not liquid and has costs.
Gold – well it explains the last few months of Gold

#90 Rexx Rock on 03.03.20 at 7:24 pm

If anyone believes the China Coroana virus numbers coming out needs to get their heads examined.It maybe no Spanish flu but its not a common cold.
Wild days on the stock market,gotta love the central banks screwing the common people and come out saying we’ll do everything that is needed.Powerless Powell,Poloz the clown and Conman Carney are all full of BS.
Buy gold,silver ,real estate and all hard assets.Paper assets is all it is.Buy good gold and silver producing stocks.

#91 AACI Home-Dog on 03.03.20 at 7:26 pm

US rates drop. Reason being told is the virus risk on the economy…so they are saying. Trump has been trying to get the rate lowered for some time. Hmmm…yup; election in 8 months. Hopefully one coming in Canada again about that time also…

#92 crazyfox on 03.03.20 at 7:28 pm

Let’s put our nerd hats on for a moment and ask why, for example, there is no vaccine for the common cold, a virus that forces tens of millions of North Americans
to miss work and school every year. We’ve been working on this one for 50 years with no success. The basic reason why is that the Rhino virus responsible for
approx 85% of the common cold, has at least 99 serotypes. Researchers have found vaccines for 1 strain quite easily but the consequences are T cells becoming less able to identify and contain the other 99 serotypes meaning the other Rhinovirus serotypes are left alone by the immune system to do as they please creating superbug monsters out of a common cold virus.

In other words, to come up with a vaccine for the common cold, scientists will have to find a vaccine for all of them, its all or none. Factor in genetic drift (low level mutations that disguise T cell familiarity to the virus in this case, in 6 months or less) and scientists would have to come up with updated seasonal genetic vaccines for 99 or more Rhino virus serotypes every year:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113782/

Vaccine challenges with the Dengue virus, a mosquito spread virus wreaking havoc mostly in South America, a positive RNA strand virus, are the same.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_virus

To quote: With four different serotypes of the virus that can cause the disease, the vaccine must immunize against all four types to be effective. Vaccination against only one Serotype could possibly lead to severe dengue hemorrhagic shock when infected with another Serotype due to antibody-dependent enhancement. When infected with dengue virus, the immune system
produces cross-reactive antibodies that provide immunity to that particular serotype. However, these antibodies are incapable of neutralizing other serotypes upon reinfection and actually increase viral replication. When macrophages consume the ‘neutralized’ virus, the
virus is able to replicate within the macrophage, causing disease. These cross-reactive, ineffective antibodies ease access of virus into macrophages, which induces more severe disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome).

A common problem faced in dengue-endemic regions is when mothers become infected with dengue; after giving birth, offspring carry the immunity from their mother and are susceptible to hemorrhagic fever if infected with any of the other three serotypes.

Whoever reads this can now see the daunting challenges that lay ahead for COVID-19, and why
the hunt for a vaccine can’t be rushed through trials as numbnuts Trump would suggest. To my knowledge, there are 5 serotypes for COVID-19. Every one of them will need a working vaccine that accounts for genetic drift and cross reactions or risk re-infections from strains that are far more virile against vaccinated immune systems. The good news is that COVID-19 was matched with a Corona virus from a bat cave out of Borneo 3 years ago with little genetic change meaning
there is hope that a long lasting vaccine can be found for COVID-19 from what I see so far.

#93 Faron on 03.03.20 at 7:29 pm

I’ve read that the virus hit older Chinese males harder than anyone else because of the greater prevalence of smoking in the group. It’s also true that Chinese urban centers have some of the worst air pollution in the world. I’m guessing that we’ll see a strong relationship between per-capita smoking rates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_tobacco_use#2015_rankings

along with urban air quality against corona virus severity. Nations with more developed clean air standards will do better overall. That’s my hypothesis.

I’ll also own up to the fact that I panicked and traded from an equity dominant portfolio to a bond dominant one at precisely the current two week bottom. Sigh. This is my first year investing and I think I’ve learned my lesson.

#94 the Jaguar on 03.03.20 at 7:30 pm

Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Garth, Dorothy cleaned out the entire shelf of Bandit’s favourite dog food at Petland. (just kidding). Sadly, the only cure for the current hysteria is for something else to come along to completely knock the story out of the headlines. It would need to be spectacular and awe inspiring. Guess it will take Fishman walking buck naked down Granville Street in broad daylight. Then again, we’re talking about VanTown.

#95 Stone on 03.03.20 at 7:37 pm

I hope the central banks got today’s message. Dropping interest rates does not solve all problems. Even Mr/Mrs Market let them know that they did something stupid.

Then again, they think they’re Dog. Stupid is as stupid does.

#96 Beetman on 03.03.20 at 7:41 pm

You want to know the height of stupidity. It’s when people in our modern just n time societies brag about their financial wealth and yet their cupboards are basically bare.

#97 Sandra Geghan on 03.03.20 at 7:42 pm

Dave, you are making too much sense. I am not being sarcastic. I am agreeing with you. I would actually go further and say the Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates even more.

They should be at 3.00% at a minimum. This way all the housing market and debt fueled speculation would be much lower now and more maintained to a lower level of risk for all Canadians.

#98 Andrew on 03.03.20 at 7:42 pm

This won’t age well, the entire post isn’t wrong but top half is in poor taste.

#99 Spectacle on 03.03.20 at 7:46 pm

…….all perspective is lost.

Perfection Garth.

And exactly why we secretly love You and Your contribution to Canada, to the U.S. lurkers on here, and Humanity

Ps; your title of “Living with stupidity” please Leave my wife out of this . ;)

; )

#100 mid on 03.03.20 at 7:47 pm

At bit off-topic for tonight’s post But…

There is a great documentary on TVO tonight at 9:00. Might re-run at midnight.

The documentary is about the shortage of housing affordabiiity globally and in Toronto. And is pertinent to Garth’s discussion of renting vs owning. And to REITs

The film is called ‘Push’ and shadows the UN’s Special Rapporteur (who is Canadian) as she gets to the bottom of her investigation into escalating rents globally.

Can you guess who is behind the escalating housing crisis lack of affordable rentals?

#101 Flop... on 03.03.20 at 7:47 pm

Spring Break could be interesting.

Hypothetically, if you had to choose between wearing a mask on the plane or at the airport, which one would you choose?

I think most people would say on the plane, because of the tight spaces and recycling of air.

I think since I am going to the Southern States, I’ve got more chance of getting sick at the airport.

I saw my financial advisor on Saturday who self-quarantined for two weeks after returning from a holiday in China.

They looked fine, I feel fine.

Didn’t shake hands and sat about 2 meters apart as recommended.

Is seeing the sun worth dying for?

About to find out…

M45BC

#102 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.03.20 at 7:48 pm

Face-masks are about as useful for preventing the virus as the scroll lock key on you computer keyboard.

#103 akashic record on 03.03.20 at 7:48 pm

#25 NoName on 03.03.20 at 4:33 pm

And on a side note if soul is like radio wave, its doesnt last forever it deteriorates with distance and time, best example of inverse square low.

Soul as a radio wave is just a layman-term analogy.
Nobody suggests that it is an actual radio wave.

#104 Andrew on 03.03.20 at 7:53 pm

Comparing numbers from a city of 11 million where almost all residents were forced to stay home for weeks, to a continent that has a large portion of the population not taking actions to prevent spread. Bad take. “Don’t test, don’t tell” policy across North America will blow up over next 2-3 weeks. Its not the black plague…we get it. But trivializing peoples attempts to take it serious is foolish. Why would we not get on top of it and prepare?

People will stress naturally, better a population prepare than not. The people lined up at costco aren’t the ones selling off the market, they are consumers spending money. If anything you’d think the asset owning stress balls would be happy to see such panic buying from consumers.

I commend those that take precaution and even if it only stops the spread from one person to the other or the death of one elder or vulnerable it is a good action. If we see some nursing homes get wiped out in Canada perhaps we can reflect on this post. The old, sick and vulnerable deserve this to be taken serious. Maybe next time round you’ll be the one in a bed fearing it arriving for you rather than having to navigate a market sell off.

#105 Paddy on 03.03.20 at 7:55 pm

Just watched a time lapse of the new hospital build in Wuhan, quite impressive. 10 days or so to build……We can’t even get a bunch of clowns off a train track for Christ sake….never mind get a pipeline built….sometimes I’m embarrassed to be a Canadian.

#106 Yukon Elvis on 03.03.20 at 7:55 pm

#63 Mike in Airdrie on 03.03.20 at 5:57 pm
So how do we profit from stupid? Buy the companies that make toilet paper and hand sanitizer?

I was thinking the 4%+ yield on major banks is looking pretty tasty vs the pathetic highly taxed interest paid by parking your cash at those same institutions. Any thoughts?
………………….

Two of them are paying 5+% on common shares. I bought Monday, maybe again Thu. or Fri.

#107 Dubble Scoopz on 03.03.20 at 7:58 pm

Garth,

These are perilous times to be a financial advisor. I mean every advisor looks like a genius when you go through the longest bull market in history. Now that the tide has changed, clients are going to blame the advisors who will blame the virus and anything else they can find. It may be time to consider going back to scooping ice cream or if you want to stoop even lower, become an MP again.

#108 Tom Simms on 03.03.20 at 8:00 pm

Yukon Elvis, TD common shares are down 12% in the last 18, 19 months or so a 4%-4.5% dividend is pretty much wiped out.

#109 Spectacle on 03.03.20 at 8:04 pm

#79 Nonplused on 03.03.20 at 6:37 pm
Great now there will be a run on safety glasses.

Not sure about the safety glasses…

I do serve Corona since it is a gluten free, and an old European beer which migrated to South America with some less than desireable Stazi folk ( ouch..).

Found it fun shopping at Costco this mid afternoon as the Stupid people hid in their hovels in richmond, got to share salutations with the local citizenry. Aisles of cottonelle stock etc. Purely ” Stupid” as sir Turner described it. Inspires me to greater heights , since in effect, I am genetically related to these folks. Mind numbing. My 2020 goal or resolution, is not to be stupid.

#110 Socks Crateze on 03.03.20 at 8:06 pm

“By the way, don’t bother posting scary, emotional comments about looming mass death. I’ve just sterilized my delete finger.”

Garth, I wouldn’t go with the draconian censorship option. Rather than letting truth be the first casualty of war, continue to be a paragon of free speech in true Voltaire fashion, who said somethin like, “Although I may disapprove of what you say, I shall defend to the death your right to say it.”

#111 Spectacle on 03.03.20 at 8:10 pm

#105 Paddy on 03.03.20 at 7:55 pm
Just watched a time lapse of the new hospital build in Wuhan, quite impressive. 10 days or so to build……We can’t even get a bunch of clowns off a train track.. …………. ….never mind get a pipeline built….sometimes I’m embarrassed to be a Canadian.
———— Paddy don’t be!—

Paddy, you care! I have picked up my mail at the richmond post office because it is week 2 of the lock being broken on the mail room locker door something something. Seriously?!

Always care, and the mediocrity is not your thing, which is good. Thanks for your commentary here.

M.

#112 MaryEn on 03.03.20 at 8:11 pm

It’s hard to find any understanding for such an obsession with toilet paper. Do people really believe it’s high priority item in any emergency situation?! It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad. Compering with the victims of Krugman’s macroeconomy advices, Corona looks

Anyway, tomorrow could be another nice shopping day.

#113 NoName on 03.03.20 at 8:14 pm

#105 Paddy on 03.03.20 at 7:55 pm
Just watched a time lapse of the new hospital build in Wuhan, quite impressive. 10 days or so to build……We can’t even get a bunch of clowns off a train track for Christ sake….never mind get a pipeline built….sometimes I’m embarrassed to be a Canadian.

C’mon paidy isnt that bit to harsh…

Its 22 yrs ago that arrived to Canada with next to nothing, I have to admit didn’t achieve much in terms of material possessions, but for spoken and written english, I nailed it. We can all agree on that one.

I know some of you might say if your english is communicable disise you would be quorentined long time ago, indefinitely.

Imagine that, 22yrs…

#114 MaryEn on 03.03.20 at 8:14 pm

*Compering with victims of Krugman’s macroeconomy advices, the Corona virus looks much less dangerous.

#115 Anc123 on 03.03.20 at 8:15 pm

Dogman01 on 03.03.20 at 7:23 pm
So I figure: Money has to go somewhere, someone sells = someone buys.

Only five choices
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Gold and Bit Coins etc.
Real Estate (not including REITS)

Cash loses to inflation
Bonds barely keep up to inflation (negative rates anyone)
Real Estate is not liquid and has costs.
Gold – well it explains the last few months of Gold
————-

Lol .. real estate does not have to be liquid as you will never sell since the rents willkeep coming in (which they Will recession or not)

I’ll take a roof over my head and warm place to
Sleep over pretty rocks anyday .

Rate cut = Real estate to the moon

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 8:17 pm

@#105 paddy
“We can’t even get a bunch of clowns off a train track for Christ sake….never mind get a pipeline built….”
+++++

Have you seen the latest pr from out fearless leader?

He was at a Winnipeg luncheon and announced he wants Industry Investors and Indigenous leaders to have a powwow on how to best spend investment money….
Possibly because the Liberals are out of ideas?

“I know! Lets get together and talk and talk and talk…..”

The lunch crowd just stared at Trudeau….no clapping….crickets….

Delusional.
Good luck getting campaign contributions for the next election…

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-calls-for-input-from-industry-citizens-indigenous-groups-on-climate-1.4835673

#117 MF on 03.03.20 at 8:20 pm

#32 MF on 03.03.20 at 4:48 pm
DELETED

-Meh I guess you warned us not to talk about it which moves the markets these days (I won’t say which way to be extra safe).

Moving on.

#105 Paddy on 03.03.20 at 7:55 pm

Yeah but what is the quality like? I doubt a hospital built that quickly here would withstand the Canadian winter.

That’s all. Gotta tread lightly tonight…..

MF

#118 Yukon Elvis on 03.03.20 at 8:20 pm

#97 Sandra Geghan on 03.03.20 at 7:42 pm
Dave, you are making too much sense. I am not being sarcastic. I am agreeing with you. I would actually go further and say the Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates even more.

They should be at 3.00% at a minimum. This way all the housing market and debt fueled speculation would be much lower now and more maintained to a lower level of risk for all Canadians.
……………………………………………

We would go into a mega recession.Lumber, mining, fisheries, oil industries all in decline. Trains not running. Oppressive taxes and government regulations. Unaccountable protesters shut down the economy. Impotent government.
Without housing we would not have much of an economy.

#119 Gus Gaspereau on 03.03.20 at 8:21 pm

We just retired 3 weeks ago. We have a combined $2,900 a month in C.P.P., OAS and have no mortgage anymore just last month.

We have no car loans, no credit card debt, no line of credit debt, no debt of any type. We can easily pay all our living expenses, property taxes, water bills, car insurance etc. as we live modestly, one car only, 2 years and have no high maintenance activities.

Actually we are left with $10,000 a year after all this.All our C.P.P, OAS is income tax free because our personal amount, age amount gives us $17,500 of annual income times 2, no income taxes payable on all our pension income. We do have a 5 years reserve fund in cashable, redeemable GIC’s, $124,000 and a $150,000 private health insurance policy each and $100,000 life insurance policy each for future living expenses.

Our RRSP’s, TFSA’s are tax sheltered, tax free in DUCA Credit Union 3.5% 7 year and 3.0% 80 month fixed rates GIC’s maturing 2026. We are quite content with the $218,000 compound interest we will receive of the by maturity. Good thing we don’t need to touch it.

Why do you come here weekly to leave the post? – Garth

#120 Kevin on 03.03.20 at 8:30 pm

Thanks Garth. I’m just wondering if you think lower interest rates are the new normal, forever. It seems like it’s impossible for Central Banks to raise and maintain higher interest rates… we’re blowing our economic buffers in a bull market. It seems like we can’t ever accept a recession or downturn.

#121 MF on 03.03.20 at 8:32 pm

#115 Anc123 on 03.03.20 at 8:15 pm

You must be new around here.

But who was:

-Property tax
-Utilities
-Mortgage (no one can afford to buy at these levels without one)
-Maintenance

What happens when a renter leaves and you are vacant for a while? When they trash the place? When they don’t pay? Ever tried to evict someone? Etc. Etc.

REIT stock = none of the above plus monthy income.

I guess every Tom, Dick, and Harry thinks they are a real estate mogul on par with Donald Trump these days.

Okay I’m out.

MF

#122 Frustrated Kiwi on 03.03.20 at 8:32 pm

“I’ve just sterilized my delete finger.” One of your best zingers yet! I would be worried if I had an elderly parent in a rest home in Washington State though. Doesn’t look like the US is being remotely proactive on this one. Sigh!

#123 Lawless on 03.03.20 at 8:37 pm

DELETED

#124 Barb on 03.03.20 at 8:37 pm

“Communist countries seem to be capable of mobilizing very rapid responses when there is a threat of an epidemic.”

—————————————-
Not just during that kind of a threat.

We first worlders would discuss at length whether it’s actually constitutionally-allowed to tell people to self-isolate. Human Rights and all that.
And T2 would fill the airwaves telling us all how seriously he’s taking this. Ah….ah….er…..ah….

#125 Up in Smoke on 03.03.20 at 8:39 pm

“#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 8:17 pm

Have you seen the latest pr from out fearless leader?

have a powwow “I know! Lets get together and talk and talk and talk…..”

Maybe the kid will ask everyone to smoke the peace pipe with a bit of legalized ganja thrown in, and Bob Marley playing in the background.

The old world meets the new

#126 Spectacle on 03.03.20 at 8:43 pm

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 8:17 pm
@#105 paddy
“We can’t even get a bunch of clowns off a train track for Christ sake….never mind get a pipeline built….”
+++++

Have you seen the latest pr from out fearless leader?

He was at a Winnipeg luncheon and announced he wants Industry Investors and Indigenous leaders to have a powwow on how to best spend investment money….
Possibly because the Liberals are out of ideas?
————————————-

Perfect to both of You & Garth of course.

Just living with Stupid ! Stupid socks, stupid Agenda 30, Stupid puppet.

And here we are working diligently to contribute and provide in what used to be a Nation to be proud of.

Stay the course…Nature will have its recourse on stupid.

Nite. M. Over my limit on the best financial blod in North Americas.

#127 TurnerNation on 03.03.20 at 8:46 pm

Something for the infectious disease experts in this comments section.
Some wag suggests/points out, that in every US Election year there is a major disease outbreak.

Their screen shot:
https://imgflip.com/i/3r3qju

I cross checked against US Elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election

Dunno it is what it is draw your own conclusion(s) if any or a piece of miscellany.


Visit your local groceteria and stock up on notions and sundries!

#128 april on 03.03.20 at 8:46 pm

#115 – Who’s buying strata?We keep hearing about people unable to get insurance on their building… very scary… According to a local Vancouver analyst this could decimate the strata market. Someone in a high-rise on the New West Quay said their deductible just went from 250 thous to 500 thous… didn’t hear what their yearly would be.

#129 crossbordershopper on 03.03.20 at 8:48 pm

I like Costco actually, but most stuff is overpriced.
you can stalk up on essentials when there are deals, but buying six month supply of toilet paper may seem a little much for most people.
interest rates going to zero said it for few years now, if we cross the rubicon, and go negative, no turning back we are done.
with negative rates, no value in anything the new economic world would set in, no investment, no delay, everything will be for the present, consumption, investment etc, no long term anything, it will be an upside down world, and one with high prices and no one will have any cash. the system will start to unwind,
I still cant get my head around the negative interest rate thing, why would anyone do anything,
why do anything.

#130 Goat Boy on 03.03.20 at 8:49 pm

DELETED

#131 Ronaldo on 03.03.20 at 8:53 pm

#3 MJ

Actually even lower at 1.99%, see attached link. I believe Garth had predicted that as well a while back. The race is on.

https://www.ratespy.com/1-99-hsbc-mortgage-special-030212008

#132 Cuervo Jonez on 03.03.20 at 8:54 pm

“It’s just alcohol … so buy a cheap bottle of really dry white wine or some rubbing alcohol – put it into a small container – and voila, you have hand sanitizer!”

C’mon Carol think out of the box girl. White wine is just gonna make your hands sticky and smell like sour grapes. Put some tequila in a spray bottle, keep some lime and salt in your desk and regularly spray your tongue throughout the day. Disinfection with a buzz, a real 2 for 1 special

#133 not 1st on 03.03.20 at 8:55 pm

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 8:17 pm

—–
crowded, ever worse than that, our illustrious leader had the nerve to crash the miners conf in Toronto. Whats could be better than a little pep talk from our PM. I mean these are the guys that carve those precious minerals out of the Canadian shield that power our modern life and fuel our export machine funnelling money to our govt coffers.

Nope, turned out to be another Trudeau shame fest. Mining needs to use electric vehicles because you know teslas work so well up in the bush 1000 miles from power lines.

Whats worse is for his green utopia to come to fruition, its these guys that will be needed to dig out the cobalt, manganese, uranium and rare earths to power that vision.

Looks like he has another industry in his sites to shut down.

#134 Ronaldo on 03.03.20 at 8:55 pm

#4 Jake Shandel on 03.03.20 at 4:11 pm
I see the Dow Jones falling to 20,000, S&P 500 2,500, Nasdaq 7,000 in the end of March-2020 and TSX will be 14,000 by the end of March-2020.

Watch and learn how strong the economy is guys.
—————————————————————–
Where did you get your crystal ball? I would like one of those.

#135 Yukon Elvis on 03.03.20 at 8:56 pm

#108 Tom Simms on 03.03.20 at 8:00 pm

Yukon Elvis, TD common shares are down 12% in the last 18, 19 months or so a 4%-4.5% dividend is pretty much wiped out.
……………………………….

Didn’t like that one so I didn’t buy it. But it will recover I am sure. I did like NA which I picked up at $45 paying 5+% div. and sold at $72 three years later and I got 5+% to hold it. Think long term, not 18 months.

#136 yvr_lurker on 03.03.20 at 9:03 pm

In my view there is no need to panic… I am not buying hand sanitizer or hoarding toilet paper, and none of my 240 students I am teaching at a postsecondary are wearin masks.

However, I am a little miffed that it is China that due to slack controls at either their huge research center on viruses in Wuhan (a bigh research lab) or through their live animal markets created this damned virus that the world now has to deal with both financially (a big sudden drop in the market) or with sickness (Iran, Italy). We should not forget where the ground zero of this issue came from….. China…. I cancelled a trip I was asked to make in the summer out there… I think for me I am done with that place.

#137 Joe Schmoe on 03.03.20 at 9:06 pm

One more mutation and I am pretty sure I am going to get rich on the zombiebabes.com domain I bought a few years back!

This virus is real. The impact is unknown. Preparing for quarantine is smart. We have winter and power outages and storms. The planning is the same.

I am glad I snuck my vacation in early Feb. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks as the truth around this virus unravels.

#138 akashic record on 03.03.20 at 9:08 pm

95 Piet on 03.03.20 at 5:31 am
@#72 akashic record

Thanks for the link. Hadn’t heard of Ken L. Wheeler before. What he says makes sense. Other than having learned some lessons courtesy of the most recent life experience packet, the soul (radio signal) doesn’t change much, even though the body (radio receiver) ceases to function.

Your welcome.

#139 Michel on 03.03.20 at 9:08 pm

DELETED

#140 akashic record on 03.03.20 at 9:10 pm

#123 G on 03.03.20 at 11:27 am
Hi #72 akashic record,
Thanks for the link.
I missed seeing that fire side chat.
I was/am focused on another issue presently.

Your welcome. No worries, sooner or later everyone arrives to the fire side chat :)

#141 DON on 03.03.20 at 9:24 pm

Stated in a prior post

*******************************
“Did you know that the 1.8T in mortgage debt is backed by 6.5T in equity? And that 40% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage?”
**********
The 1.8T mortgage debt was 2.17 trillion total household debt as of May last year. I wonder what it is now? And it used to be 46% that owned their homes outright and now stands at 40%.

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/as-helocs-morph-the-bank-of-canada-asks-lenders-for-details

May 22, 2019 –
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cmhc-says-canadians-debt-levels-hit-record-highs-at-end-of-last-year-1.4432323

“The agency said debt issues are increasing for older consumers as the share of mortgage holders 55 and older continues to grow. It said mortgage delinquency rates in the 65-and-above age group have been rising and have been the highest of all age grounds since late 2015, while still relatively low.”

Like Garth said who wants open houses with talk of the virus in the air? Maybe the ‘need to sell folks’.

And the stock market lost a lot of equity in one week, no doubt it will return but what if that happened with house prices? Judging by the US Housing Market…YIKES!

And there’s a condo insurance problem across Canada to add to the mix.

#142 n1tro on 03.03.20 at 9:34 pm

#30 Got the flu on a plane on 03.03.20 at 4:43 pm
So some stupid idiot had the flu and I’m was sitting beside him on a flight from Toronto to Calgary.
Tuesday Feb 25
Now I am sick as a dog,
Your should be ashamed of yourself for travelling while sick and at the very least you should have a mask on to keep the germs to yourself.
I hope you read this a feel like crap for spreading you germs.
—–
Cold FX dude. Take a couple every day for a week after coming in contact with these inconsiderate folks. Has always worked for me. Haven’t gotten “sick” for years now. Didn’t get the flu shot this year either. Just forgot to.

#143 I still think ... on 03.03.20 at 9:40 pm

covid 19 is a devious plot by the millenials to get their hands on inheritance from the boomers before the Liberals do.

#144 Paul Kelly on 03.03.20 at 9:42 pm

If it were not for lower interest rates, stock and real estate markets would be be so high from the mid 60’s to 2020.

The real competition was cut out and it is rigged by all the of cutting of interest rates almost for 40 years now. If interest rates were higher, it would be more shared as all could easily get interest on their money saved and not pump and dump policies of central banks, governments.

#145 Dr V on 03.03.20 at 9:44 pm

64 Fartz

“I’m flying next week and plan on bringing latex gloves and a mask to wear IF my seating companions are sick as some blog dogs…. ”

I woulda thought most people would figure out not to sit too close to you.

Hope its not a long flight!

#146 Yuus bin Haad on 03.03.20 at 9:47 pm

OK Kids – watch and wait – the opportunity for putting some of that spare cash to work is approaching. You know … spare cash?

#147 not 1st on 03.03.20 at 9:49 pm

It wouldn’t be prudent to think this is just a blip and things will be back to normal soon. The undercurrents are showing fragility in the system.

Extended supply lines, massive debts and shadow banking, ZIRP or even negative, probably QE and currency devaluation on tap. Bank of Japan and Bank of Switzerland buying US equities.

$100B teed up in the repo market for tonight.

None of this feels right and it aint just the virus.

#148 Moses71 on 03.03.20 at 9:52 pm

People won’t be self isolating as they can’t take the time off of work as they are pay cheque to pay cheque and can’t absorb a $200 loss from their month!!

#149 Tanya Stephenson on 03.03.20 at 9:55 pm

The poster that said 20,000 Dow, 2,500 S&P 500, 14,000 TSX is not far off in my opinion. A 25% to 30% contraction or downturn is very probable after 10 years of mostly up equity markets.

#150 VicPaul on 03.03.20 at 10:05 pm

#46 Stone on 03.03.20 at 5:21 pm
I will say the folks at Costco know what they’re doing. When I went shopping over the weekend, they handed out wipes to wipe down the shopping cart handles.

*********

I went to Costco last week – shopped, stowed stuff in car and then went back in for a dog – the hot kind. As I entered the building I was thinking about germs on my hands and eating. So I walked up to Custoumer Service desk and politely asked if they hand any hand sanitizer – to which the nice woman quickly replied, ” Oh, we don’t carry hand sanitizer”….to which I replied – ” You might want to bring some in for your customers…”. Stone tells me it took less than a week….any wonder why Costco’s been a business juggernaut?

M56BC

#151 Toni on 03.03.20 at 10:09 pm

Thanks Carol for the common sense!! Thank you Garth, you are priceless and so unique, everyday, no matter what.

#152 Felix on 03.03.20 at 10:15 pm

Living with stupid.

A perfect summation of what it means to have a dog.

#153 jim on 03.03.20 at 10:17 pm

Garth…point well taken re overreaction to the virus….now can someone advise our central bank likewise?

#154 ANON on 03.03.20 at 10:20 pm

Thank you for watching our main feature, the Award winning “Extraordinary Popular Delusions”. Coming up next in our program, the runner-up, titled “The Madness of Crowds”.
Enjoy the program.

#155 Nonplused on 03.03.20 at 10:29 pm

#103 akashic record on 03.03.20 at 7:48 pm
#25 NoName on 03.03.20 at 4:33 pm

“And on a side note if soul is like radio wave, its doesnt last forever it deteriorates with distance and time, best example of inverse square low.

Soul as a radio wave is just a layman-term analogy.
Nobody suggests that it is an actual radio wave.”

—————-

So what are you suggesting it is, Mr. non-layman?

#156 cramar on 03.03.20 at 10:52 pm

One big benefit from all this COVID-19 fear is that with hand washing, etc., it is likely that this flu season will have a much lower death rate. After all, the paranoid precautions everyone is taking to prevent corona infections is exactly the same things we are told (and ignore) every year to help prevent flu infections.

How ironic. A few might die from COVID-19, while thousands are saved dying from the flu.

#157 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.03.20 at 10:58 pm

#150 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 3:01 pm
#143 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 2:05 pm
#131 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 12:47 pm

If I was still working (retired), I would have used this Corona virus thing to take time off work.
Just call in and say you aren’t feeling so great and plan to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

—————————

Of course you would. Didn’t you also sue your employer for severance? Bad employee.

//////////

Bad employee? Ok, I’ll own that.
Awful boss made me that way.
—————
Sailor,
Meet kettle.
Good on Penny.

#158 Phylis on 03.03.20 at 11:03 pm

Fear is powerful. All hail fear! The greatest motivator however wrongfully applied. 100% of the time, works every time. It must be the simplest emotion to induce. People even pay to watch horror movies. Now, i’m over weight bonds… when to rebalance…

#159 Phylis on 03.03.20 at 11:18 pm

Anyone remember what door to door salesmen (sorry but that’s what it was)were selling inthe 50’s and 60’s for your backyard. (Tryin to get the young-uns to think.)

#160 Blackdog on 03.03.20 at 11:46 pm

@Garth re: #119

It may be annoying, but I don’t think he means to be. Could be a ‘not so on-the-ball anymore’ senior without a lot of pastimes.

#161 Ronaldo on 03.03.20 at 11:47 pm

#141 Don

And the stock market lost a lot of equity in one week, no doubt it will return but what if that happened with house prices? Judging by the US Housing Market…YIKES!
—————————————————————
It has already happened in some parts of the country especially in Alberta where prices are back to 2010 levels or less in some areas. This comes directly from an investor I know well plus I was there working the summer of 06 when the housing market was going whacko. It peaked in spring the next year, fell back, went back up and has since fallen back to the 2010 level and lower. I am speaking of Sylvan Lake.

#162 Dan on 03.04.20 at 12:22 am

To panic during this uniquely unfolding epidemiological event is counterproductive and dangerous. Maintaining perspective is key… about both this virus and your portfolio. Sadly, the officially reported number of CoViD-19 cases from the government of China is grossly inaccurate and if the real numbers were reported then we would approach this very differently.

#163 WUL on 03.04.20 at 1:08 am

Stock up on toilet paper? I don’t get it. One would think that Canadians have spent some time in the backwoods without TP.

I have. Lots of alternatives. Some are real soft like small branches from Larch and Tamarack Trees. Or big leaves from a Balsam Poplar. Nature’s own 3 ply. Done it before and I’d do it again.

TP is the last thing I’d buy as a prepper.

WUL

M64Backwoods

#164 Pharmacist on 03.04.20 at 1:45 am

One thing you should stock up on is your essential prescription medications.
Nowadays we have shortages because our raw materials and produced medications come from a few countries , such as India and China. If supply chains are oppressed due to covod19, you will see shortages.

#165 Long-Time Lurker on 03.04.20 at 2:06 am

Dr. Theresa Tam
@CPHO_Canada

The Chief Public Health Officer promotes and protects the health of Canadians.

https://twitter.com/CPHO_Canada

https://twitter.com/CPHO_Canada/status/1234994335919177730

Dr. Theresa Tam
@CPHO_Canada

1/7 As cases of #COVID19 increase, it is important for each of us to be prepared for all possible scenarios. You can do your part to protect yourself and others. A few tips to get prepared in this thread:

2/7 Make a plan: Think about what you will do if a #COVID19 outbreak happens in your community. Plan for alternate work & childcare arrangements should you or a family member become sick. #COVID19 #coronavirus

3/7 Refill your prescriptions : Consider seeing your healthcare provider to renew your prescriptions ahead of time. Avoid busy pharmacies if you become sick. #COVID19 #coronavirus

4/7 Gradually fill your cupboards: Add a few extra items to your cart every time you grocery shop to build up your household store. Look for non-perishable, easy-to-prepare foods like dried pasta and sauce and canned soup, vegetables and beans. #COVID19 #coronavirus

5/7 Get a few extras: Have on hand soap, facial tissues, alcohol-based hand sanitizer, household cleaning products, fever-reducing medications. #COVID19 #coronavirus

6/7 You may have to change your regular habits to reduce your exposure to #COVID19. Plan to have enough on hand to avoid public or crowded spaces such as the grocery store or consider shopping online or at off-peak hours. #COVID19 #coronavirus

7/7 For more tips to be prepared for #COVID19:

https://canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/being-prepared.html

4:09 PM · Mar 3, 2020·Twitter Web App

#166 David on 03.04.20 at 3:03 am

The current interpretations are either widespread fear and panic or an overbought market trying to correct itself. Either explanation seems plausible. With all the AI trading algorithms and traders clicking the mouse every second some of the swings tend to get very exaggerated.
Stock picking can be a fun everyday challenge to do with with friends and family over morning coffee and it is a good chance to test your own judgement against reality.
As an aside and with an open mind we have been evaluating a number of stocks from the storied Canadian oil and gas sector as part of our daily discussion. A lot of people I think have concluded that that sector is a real wealth destroyer and finding a promising investment in oil and gas is a really tough challenge.
Those 3x inverse ETF funds are fabulous for bettor types and sure beats the VLTS. Fun if you win I guess.

#167 NoName on 03.04.20 at 3:27 am

And just when i tought that can not get funnier…


Australians have been panic-buying packs of condoms, believing they will help protect against coronavirus.
Thanh Thai, from Sydney, shared a picture of empty shelves after a store sold out of Durex contraceptives.
‘Can anybody please tell me what happened?’ she wrote alongside the picture.
Other mums told her that the panic-buying comes after a social media post encouraged people to use condoms to protect their fingers against the virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8072299/Condoms-sell-people-encouraged-FINGERS-avoid-coronavirus.html

And for carol the teacher i wonder why you didnt start letter to students wit queston, “Where is water waldo?”

#168 Vince Napolitano on 03.04.20 at 3:49 am

What a yesterday. I held on through the knee jerk virus as always, and through yesterday’s recovery I did nothing as Ive done for decades.

Advice please, starting with a $1500 deposit in a self directed RSP 31 years ago my wife amassed just over $1,400,000.00. I think that’s OK, is it? She’s 50, I’m 66. I have my own accts that are just fine and were in place long before we married. likely why she married me. Lol.

I haven’t bought any new stocks since January and have a five figure pile of dividends piling up. If you were in a similar position what would you do? I’m all equity, no bonds, some preferreds and covered calls.

Love to hear from knowledgeable people. I won’t outlive my money, can’t with the dividend income. But if we leave her RSP compounding for fifteen years what will that be ? And what will that mean to the CRA?

I suppose you’d call me an accidental all cash stock market millionaire. I don’t consider my house as net worth. I’m just an uneducated stock picker who got lucky.

#169 Vince Napolitano on 03.04.20 at 3:56 am

** Might I add that TFSAs are maxed and Non Reg accts are also 100% at work in equity. Thx. Given the cash position I’m in, paid for lux house. I guess I have a nice problem. Yes, Wills written and orderly, kids fully funded. So what’s next? Just let it compound. We already do nothing, so you can’t retire any more than we already are. I’m looking for a brilliant answer to break the logjam. Are you a unique financial lifestyle thinker/planner?

#170 Howard on 03.04.20 at 5:13 am

Still it’s a bit concerning since 80%+ of Canada’s medications are manufactured in China and global supply chains have ground to a halt.

If considering only antibiotics, it’s more like 95% manufactured in China.

#171 Howard on 03.04.20 at 5:49 am

#48 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.03.20 at 5:24 pm
The Fed pumped $100-billion into repo markets plus cut rates by 1/2 a percent in one day and markets still tanked and Trump is still screaming for more.

————————————

Frankly, Powell should just give Trump what he wants and cut interest rates to -10%.

I mean, at this point, why not?

The Baby Boomers have left a nightmarish hellscape in their wake so gruesome that no science fiction doomsday writer could have imagined it. Might as well as just finish it off already. -10% interest rates here we come.

#172 Dmitry on 03.04.20 at 6:27 am

#92 crazyfox

you are spot on, but that is more advanced, longer term issue. ADE is something you worry about after you survive the first wave. Most folks are in denial on how big and how brutal the first wave is that is already upon us. Cyanosis followed by death is a far more immediate issue to face than ADE considering lack of healthy medical staff, hospital capacity and oxygen equipment to care for people with severe and critical forms of the disease during the peak of this epidemic. Just look at the official numbers ex-China. This thing is exponential in absence of severe social distancing. Denial works only for so long before reality blankets your community.

#173 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 6:55 am

#171 Howard

The Baby Boomers have left a nightmarish hellscape in their wake so gruesome that no science fiction doomsday writer could have imagined it. Might as well as just finish it off already. -10% interest rates here we come.
—————————————————————-
Oh sure, blame the boomers again why don’t we. Sheesh.

#174 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 7:24 am

Dear MF,

TREB, otherwise known to you as The Evil Empire, has officially reported the following (GTA):

– Sales up 45.6%
– Listings down 33.6%
– Prices up 16.7%

But they’re probably just making it all up. You could do what I do and actively look at readily available data yourself, along with Garth’s recent articles, and assert the market is indeed on fire.

If the BOC cuts rates today, well to the moon Alice!

*Brought to you by your friendly RE Kool-Aid drinking troll.

Link: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-average-home-price-spikes-above-900-000-amid-sales-surge-1.1399662

A regrettable thing. The supply-demand situation is worrisome – a very unfortunate development for families. You are wrong to celebrate it. – Garth

#175 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 7:38 am

A regrettable thing. The supply-demand situation is worrisome – a very unfortunate development for families. You are wrong to celebrate it. – Garth
——————————————————

I am misunderstood, perhaps because of my name (which is really just for fun).

I do not celebrate, nor condemn. I am just commenting on what the data shows. And yes, I know diving deeper will reveal some other truths, some not so flattering.

However, human nature as it is, I cannot help but be cheerful as a homeowner. It’s like if you owned a certain stock and it was soaring.

These are homes. Rejoicing when they travel further from the reach of families is unwise. – Garth

#176 maxx on 03.04.20 at 7:46 am

@ #43

No kidding; what a farce…..does she not read labels?

Play your own game people and for dawg’s sake, stop using others as reference points for making decisions – at very least verify the stream of junk coming at you non-stop. Question everything.

What a waste of good wine.

#177 MF on 03.04.20 at 7:52 am

4 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at

Sorry but I believe zero of what they say. Do they have a special interest? What do you think?

Besides,

There is nothing positive about the real estate situation here. Like I said yesterday, all you have to do is look around at the warning signs, and history as a guide.

Psst: take a peak at the luxury market.

MF

#178 MF on 03.04.20 at 8:15 am

174 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 7:24 am

If anyone wants to see how dangerous and parasitic the real estate industry is look at this poster^

-morbidly celebrates an emergency rate cut that is a result of an illness that harms people’s health, and will harm the finances, and well-being, of millions.
-believes real estate has no limits and will “go to the moon”, completely ignorant of history or reality.
-conveniently ignores ALL negatives associated with ownership like property tax, maintenance, utilities, drug addict tenants etc.
-touts the party line from a shill factory like TREB, knowing full well there is a vested interest in reporting falsified data.
-selfishly touts the unaffordability of home prices that mean the lifeblood of our society, nation, and economy-families- will be forced to leave for other cities (or go in massive debt and take massive risk).

Congratulations pal. We are now on an even more dangerous path towards a potential reset.

Yet,

You fiddle while Rome burns.

MF

#179 earthboundmisfit on 03.04.20 at 8:15 am

Can’t find hand sanitizer? Make your own.

70% rubbing alcohol. 30% aloe gel.

#180 Michael Bruce Chase on 03.04.20 at 8:42 am

humm more people die of the flu, well when was the last time you saw gov’ts quaranteen cities and whole sections of the country during flu season? What do they know that they don’t want us to know.
And of course 100 years ago a virus killed millions. If you had to shelter in place for a month, I think it would be prudent to have squirreled away some provisions. But what do I know??? I’m just 70 years old and a prime target for this bug. The gov’t want it to get me so they don’t have to pay me a pension

#181 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 8:50 am

#179 earthboundmisfit on 03.04.20 at 8:15 am
Can’t find hand sanitizer? Make your own.

70% rubbing alcohol. 30% aloe gel.

——————–

Don’t stop there, earth. Whatcha got for toilet paper?

#182 Howard on 03.04.20 at 8:53 am

#173 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 6:55 am

Well in fairness, Boomers are not to blame for electing the most incompetent, nation-destroying government in Canadian history. That “achievement” is on Millennial voters, particularly of the female persuasion.

#183 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 8:53 am

These are homes. Rejoicing when they travel further from the reach of families is unwise. – Garth
————————————————————–

FYI, I have a family.

If we are to have an honest conversation about this, what about soaring stock markets? Consumerism which fuels equities comes at its own costs.

Environment?

We are all benefiting from some other misery.

An example; China’s incredible growth over the last decade or more, which in turn fueled global markets and your portfolios, came at the cost of people’s very health … never mind if they could not afford a house, they could not breathe!

As for MF, perhaps you need a snickers?

#184 crazyfox on 03.04.20 at 8:54 am

In my mind, vaccines are an issue for right now. The greatest danger we place on ourselves as a human race is downplaying the threat to, well, anything. Fear is stupidity (somewhat, at times we do need to fight or flight and sometimes we need to be afraid and run) but knowledge is power. Downplaying any threat only weakens the response against it increasing the danger and risk. Therefore, the world needs to know just how much of a challenge we are facing with vaccines, how long they will last and why.

Not just vaccines, the rate of transmission and CFR! Anyone who thinks the Chinese reaction is overblown is not looking at the numbers of new cases being reported. Chinese numbers could be Frankenstein numbers just to get their people back to work. For all we know, these are numbers just for their prisons. But to downplay the Chinese reaction on suspicion alone is to downplay their potential to pull off these dramatically lower numbers that could be a fatal calculation. China reported 126 cases yesterday and 131 this morning from initially thousands a day. We have to look a deeply serious close look as to why that is.

Downplaying the challenges of coming up with a safe and effective vaccine is also wrong and lets be honest, if a vaccine comes, it won’t be introduced to the world overnight. It could have genetic drift challenges and work for one flu season only. Initial vaccines could be inferior, offering short term antigen fade where as better research less interested in profits or with more time, could offer a longer lasting vaccine. It will not come to the poorer nations of the world right away. As such, we have to trust Chinese numbers somewhat and really pay attention to what they are doing because their numbers suggest that cel phone government apps, temp scans, social distancing, masks and PPE, in home quarantines, its all working.

Downplaying the actual CFR on this thing is also highly dangerous. Anyone suggesting COVID-19 is going to be just another flu should talk to the Chinese. And Japanese. They didn’t let anyone off the Diamond Princess for 14 days for a reason (it’s a human trial. Nothing but bitching by the world on how it infringed upon human rights, but they didn’t get it).
CFR’s are brutally hard to predict without good data… thanks to worldometer we’ve got a chance of trying but governments are sitting on data right now that would give the general public some idea of what it is and they aren’t talking. That in itself, is concerning.

If it was so easy to have a vaccine for HIV, west nile, the common cold among so many others, we would have this by now. It only means the challenges of coming up with a drug or vaccine with COVID-19 are very real. It takes resources, brilliant minds and time. What I see, since we are looking at major resources put into this thing, 14 months for something past trials but there will be hiccups. COVID-19 could mutate into another strain, we could see genetic shift in time, its a numbers game. As the number of hosts multiply, so to do the numbers of mutations leading to greater potential for genetic shift and drift. There is a website tracking the lineage of COVID-19 as we speak and its really worth a look:

https://nextstrain.org/

The link above is tracking genetic lineages like we track family tree’s with our own families. Over time, mutations will occur especially as the number of hosts explode in humans from millions to potentially billions which further increases the potential for genetic drift and shift.

I’m fascinated by it because, as an investor, I look for opportunities to invest. Corps involved with the manufacturing of masks and diagnostics and test kits will do well in this game. Front line health care, rotating bed manufacturers, oxygen supplies right, excellent opportunities here and the early bird gets the worm. Click onto this 1 month chart for example:

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/codx

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/apt

I wouldn’t own them now, but these are stocks that reacted to fear and greed, speculated supply/demand and presented opportunities that, if the wise investor was there early enough, did well.

The holy grail is a vaccine and no doubt, we will have corps AND governments claiming they are weeks away from a vaccine:

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-vaccine-weeks-away-being-developed-says-head-israeli-science-research-institute-1489694

I’m saying if they don’t have the language I need to hear, its hype. Phase 1 trials and to some extent Phase 2 trials are easy. It’s phase 3 that is hard. I’ve explained why in some detail what the challenges will be with COVID-19. Anyone that has read my comments on this thread will understand why now, as well.

#185 leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:00 am

#181 Sail Away

Here is a survival tip for you. In times of scarcity, put a single piece of TP on top of a similarly shaped piece of cardboard. Use that as intended. No more waste on multiple layers.

#186 crazyfox on 03.04.20 at 9:04 am

#172 Dmitry on 03.04.20 at 6:27 am

Sorry, I forgot to copy/paste, last comment was addressing yours.

#187 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 9:21 am

#185 leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:00 am

Here is a survival tip for you. In times of scarcity, put a single piece of TP on top of a similarly shaped piece of cardboard. Use that as intended. No more waste on multiple layers.

————————

Now that’s thinking! And the cardboard could be used multiple times if disinfected with the aloe concoction. Maybe personalized wipers and a guest wiper stored next to the toothbrushes?

Necessity is the mother of invention.

#188 IHCTD9 on 03.04.20 at 9:24 am

#167 NoName on 03.04.20 at 3:27 am

…Other mums told her that the panic-buying comes after a social media post encouraged people to use condoms to protect their fingers against the virus.
___

Seriously, just how bloody stupid are people these days?!

#189 Leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:30 am

#187 Sail Away

You got it. May be something like an oversized rolodex. Just no paperclips or staples to hold the paper in place.

#190 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 9:48 am

#185 leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:00 am

Here is a survival tip for you. In times of scarcity, put a single piece of TP on top of a similarly shaped piece of cardboard. Use that as intended. No more waste on multiple layers.

————————–

Fertile ground here, Leebow, fertile ground.

Paper use has long been in the crosshairs of the activist element. Maybe we’ll come out of Coronavirus with a new carbon sequestration denial tax.

Maybe this is Peak Toilet Paper?

High-end club bathroom attendants could provide a square upon need: ‘Will the gentleman/lady require a square and sheet today? That will be $12 plus tax. Place the square in the reuse bin when done.’

Justin Trudeau could elbow his way into a pulp and paper conference and wax profound about how, ‘All Canadians must take a part in demolishing our economy. I stand in solidarity with you on this.’

#191 Ubul on 03.04.20 at 9:54 am

#2 Ubul on 03.03.20 at 4:08 pm
A country of 1.4 billion with fewer than 80,000 cases, where daily infections are now plunging.

—-

Canada would never take those measures that China took to get where they are now. Neither did Italy.

Well… After trying to relax earlier restrictions, Italy just closed down all schools, universities for 2 weeks, banned theaters, and larger public events.
In the previously infected Northern-Italian areas hospitals and the health care system have been unable to handle the situation. In a sudden 180 turn, the Italian government is now desperately trying to save Milano, the first large city in the path of the epidemic.
Dr Galli, who is in charge of infection control of the Sacco hospital in Milan said: we should stop comparing this corona virus to flu, because flu doesn’t paralyzes entire infectious diseases hospital wards, as COVID19 has in Italy.

#192 Calgary Rip Off on 03.04.20 at 9:58 am

The statistics certainly don’t equate with undue alarm. Traffic accidents are certainly more risky and vehicles are not banned.

Perhaps it is the unknown. Also, the statistics do not support the measures seen presently in China. If the statistics are so low why do the Chinese take such extreme measures? And therein lies much of the panic. The Chinese are intelligent. Rumor has it that bat consumption has been happening for a long time, and yet the 130 viruses potentially carried by bats other than SARs mass deaths have not occurred. Perhaps villages were burned to the ground in the past before media coverage? As such panic isn’t needed but vigilance and practicality is. Shanghai just approved treatment of Covid 19 with Vitamin C intravenous. If that is happening perhaps it is serious.

The other reality is that there are not many ventilators/ECMO machines available for those who need them. In Calgary that is 8 ECMO machines and unclear how many ventilators. The other day there was a anonymous man who had H1N1 and was intubated and on ECMO, in his 40’s. Statistics are used often to fuel decision making in medicine. The problem is if you are the outlier, say like in a botched LASIK eye surgery and acquire cornea ectasia, the reality is very real. Is it likely nothing will happen? Yes. However the chance is not zero.
Also, Alcohol with less than 70% is not helpful. Perhaps in a last ditch effort, however Vodka makes expensive and ineffective hand sanitizer.

#193 ts on 03.04.20 at 10:00 am

#100 Mid

There is a great documentary on TVO tonight at 9:00. Might re-run at midnight.

Pretty scary stuff. Makes Blackstone look like the evil villain – buying up all of Europe and most buildings stand empty – and in some cases increase rents to unaffordable levels for average person. Where will people live? Governments should step in with policy to prohibit such immoral undertakings. Just plain wrong.

#194 Love Guru's Dad on 03.04.20 at 10:04 am

Thank you Carol and Garth.

#195 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 10:07 am

50 BPS cut by BOC.

I don’t have any words.

#196 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 10:07 am

#189 Leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:30 am
#187 Sail Away

You got it. May be something like an oversized rolodex. Just no paperclips or staples to hold the paper in place.

———————–

Then you could flip through to find yours. Genius!

#197 conan on 03.04.20 at 10:14 am

So many sectors of the economy are getting hit by Corona. In retail, a company could place an order with their Chinese suppliers for gardening equipment. April comes, and the product has not yet been delivered.

If that retail outlet heavily depends on spring gardening sales, then they are f’d.

I know this is just a small example, but it is not hard to extrapolate for the entire economy.
There will be some sectors that are really going to be hurt. The trick is figuring out which ones they are, and getting out of them.

#198 Mattl on 03.04.20 at 10:36 am

50bps cut, what a joke. Economy is near full employment, consumer spending is decent, homes are ridiculously priced, and equities are at all time highs. NA gov’ts are running massive, stimulus providing, deficits.

Market moves back 10% and we have to cut by half a point?

What are we going to do when real bad times hit?

Money is going to remain cheap / free for the foreseeable future. And RE is going to explode again.

#199 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40 am

@#183 Captain Uppa on 03.04.20 at 8:53 am
These are homes. Rejoicing when they travel further from the reach of families is unwise. – Garth
————————————————————–

As for MF, perhaps you need a snickers?
____________________________________

and a rake he can shake.

guess it moot as he can’t afford a lawn.

#200 crazyfox on 03.04.20 at 10:43 am

Oh boy. A report released last night out of China indicates there are 2 strains of COVID-19:

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1

“Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).” – link

This will no doubt, further complicate the search for a vaccine:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

#201 Howard on 03.04.20 at 10:43 am

European Central Bank expected to cut next week by 10 basis points from -0.5% to -0.6%.

This is just going to go on forever isn’t it?

#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am

Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.

Where are the protestors for that?

Seriously Canada why would you stuff yourselves into boxes in the sky in that place? Just to see a raptors game?

You can buy 50 acres of land outside Calgary for the price of a concrete box in Toronto. You could buy a home on land in Calgary and Scottsdale, AZ for the price of a SFH in Toronto.

#203 Capt. Serious on 03.04.20 at 10:53 am

I can only imagine that the CBs see overall growth diving this year due to the supply chain issues from COVID-19. They are not cutting rates just because the stock market is down 10%. Keep this in mind arm chair quarter backs.
Anecdotally I can tell you that in my industry this is having a big impact on our plans for the year because we foresee restricted supply of some key components for our products. We can go to other suppliers, but that takes time. Overall, it’s going to limit what we ship this year.

#204 Dave on 03.04.20 at 10:59 am

3 new cases of virus…better reduce the rates to 0.

Real Estate will explode…no one can afford a house so let’s make it more expensive.

Coordinating effort by CB to help the economy NOT it’s to increase debt and misery

#205 Dave on 03.04.20 at 11:01 am

Let’s drop the stress test and then drop interest rates…then laugh at the middle class – say the govt and CB

#206 ts on 03.04.20 at 11:01 am

#199 oh bouy

MF is absolutely correct. Stop spreading your lies. You have no idea what kind of toll the covid 19 will take on Canada’s economy – it will be ravaged as per Morneau. Who then will buy your precious houses? Blackstone?

#207 MF on 03.04.20 at 11:05 am

99 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40

lol buddy my parents are one of these boomer couples that bought in decades ago..with zero mortgage. Already confirmed I’ll get the house. Up she goes? I benefit personally as well.

Psst they also have lots invested.

In short, I think I’ll be alright.

It’s you I’m worried about. My fellow Canadian who is getting more and more screwed.

But please, tell me about lawns.

MF

#208 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 11:06 am

@#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am
Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.
______________________________

green belt isn’t in Toronto dude.
And yes it is precious.

There is ample land available in the gta and beyond to build

#209 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 11:11 am

#167 NoName on 03.04.20 at 3:27 am

…Other mums told her that the panic-buying comes after a social media post encouraged people to use condoms to protect their fingers against the virus.

——————–

Uh huh. Right.

That’s what teenage sons told their mothers while they try to convince girlfriends that since they might all die anyway…

#210 Ubul on 03.04.20 at 11:12 am

Bloomberg, Warren. It could not be more obvious now why Pelosi and Schiff was so desperate to impeach. All they got to show is the voters favourite crazy socialist and the establishments favourite with lukewarm public support +suicidal bragging on tape.

#211 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 11:14 am

#196 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 10:07 am
#189 Leebow on 03.04.20 at 9:30 am
#187 Sail Away

You got it. May be something like an oversized rolodex. Just no paperclips or staples to hold the paper in place.

———————–

Then you could flip through to find yours. Genius!

———————–

Not you personally.

Please revise to:
‘Then a person could flip through to find their own.’

No offense meant. My apologies if this sent you, or anyone else, into a blind fury.

#212 Damifino on 03.04.20 at 11:15 am

#162 Dan

Sadly, the officially reported number of CoViD-19 cases from the government of China is grossly inaccurate and if the real numbers were reported then we would approach this very differently.
——————————–

If you know that, then please give us the real numbers.

#213 Lambchop on 03.04.20 at 11:20 am

#198 Mattl on 03.04.20 at 10:36 am

There will be some sectors that are really going to be hurt. The trick is figuring out which ones they are, and getting out of them.

“””””””””””””””””””””””””

Doesn’t that just hurt them more though?
Which in turn hurts their employees, who lose their jobs and stop spending money and on and on, potentially helping cause a recession, which ends up hurting you?
Just asking

#214 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 11:30 am

@#207 MF on 03.04.20 at 11:05 am
99 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40

lol buddy my parents are one of these boomer couples that bought in decades ago..with zero mortgage. Already confirmed I’ll get the house. Up she goes? I benefit personally as well.

Psst they also have lots invested.

In short, I think I’ll be alright.

It’s you I’m worried about. My fellow Canadian who is getting more and more screwed.

But please, tell me about lawns.

MF
________________________

lol ok, i guess you will have a lawn to shake your rake from.

#215 Dups on 03.04.20 at 11:37 am

On the positive side. More jobs will move to America. Stupid people panic. Smart people buy the dips. If you are not sure just watch and wait it out. Once we get more sunlight the uv will kill the germs.

#216 G on 03.04.20 at 11:43 am

Hi #163 WUL, re: plants as T-P
Glad you know what is what plant wise.
Many don’t even know what poison ivy/poison oak is or giant hog weed. You sure don’t want to get it wrong!

#217 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 11:47 am

#207 MF on 03.04.20 at 11:05 am
99 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40

lol buddy my parents are one of these boomer couples that bought in decades ago..with zero mortgage.

Already confirmed I’ll get the house. Up she goes? I benefit personally as well.

——————————

Sure, in 40 years that house will be all yours. Unless the big C (Corona) gets them.

Hmm… would that be a benefit? Such questions…

#218 leebow on 03.04.20 at 11:59 am

#211 Sail away

No worries. Clearly I wouldn’t have to flip, as I would immediately get myself a Louis Vuitton personal TP aid and backing with a convenient carry wallet.

#219 JB on 03.04.20 at 12:05 pm

#141 DON on 03.03.20 at 9:24 pm

Stated in a prior post

*******************************
“Did you know that the 1.8T in mortgage debt is backed by 6.5T in equity? And that 40% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage?”
**********
The 1.8T mortgage debt was 2.17 trillion total household debt as of May last year. I wonder what it is now? And it used to be 46% that owned their homes outright and now stands at 40%.

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/as-helocs-morph-the-bank-of-canada-asks-lenders-for-details

May 22, 2019 –
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cmhc-says-canadians-debt-levels-hit-record-highs-at-end-of-last-year-1.4432323

“The agency said debt issues are increasing for older consumers as the share of mortgage holders 55 and older continues to grow. It said mortgage delinquency rates in the 65-and-above age group have been rising and have been the highest of all age grounds since late 2015, while still relatively low.”

Like Garth said who wants open houses with talk of the virus in the air? Maybe the ‘need to sell folks’.

And the stock market lost a lot of equity in one week, no doubt it will return but what if that happened with house prices? Judging by the US Housing Market…YIKES!

And there’s a condo insurance problem across Canada to add to the mix.
…………………………………………………………….
Condo insurance is now one of the major contributors to the downfall of owning one of these losing investments. Trouble is way too many people are into these things up to their proverbial necks. My advice is don’t get into one and if you have one unload it get out fast!

#220 JB on 03.04.20 at 12:10 pm

#208 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 11:06 am

@#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am
Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.
______________________________

green belt isn’t in Toronto dude.
And yes it is precious.

There is ample land available in the gta and beyond to build
…………………………………………………………
I wouldn’t say there is ample land in the GTA. Have you been to the $hit-hole that Mississauga has become lately. Way too many towers full of commuters. The place is a hellhole to get in and out of with no real transit. They have pretty much used up any and every small space left by maximizing via towers. No urban planning at all.

#221 Long-Time Lurker on 03.04.20 at 12:10 pm

Los Angeles-area officials declare emergency after confirming six new coronavirus cases over 48 hours

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/los-angeles-area-officials-declare-local-emergency-confirm-new-coronavirus-cases.html

#222 Greg on 03.04.20 at 12:31 pm

China avoided mass contamination by forcing people to stay home, they would go as far as weld doors of infected building. I don’t see how these extreme mesures could be implemented elsewhere. We are in trouble.

So weld yourself in. We’ll wait. – Garth

#223 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 12:34 pm

#218 leebow on 03.04.20 at 11:59 am
#211 Sail away

No worries. Clearly I wouldn’t have to flip, as I would immediately get myself a Louis Vuitton personal TP aid and backing with a convenient carry wallet.

————————

Oh, this has legs. Bling fashion accessories, superiority shaming, custom-molded silicone ‘personal hygiene aid’, the list goes on forever.

#224 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 12:46 pm

@#220 JB on 03.04.20 at 12:10 pm
#208 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 11:06 am

@#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am
Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.
______________________________

green belt isn’t in Toronto dude.
And yes it is precious.

There is ample land available in the gta and beyond to build
…………………………………………………………
I wouldn’t say there is ample land in the GTA. Have you been to the $hit-hole that Mississauga has become lately. Way too many towers full of commuters. The place is a hellhole to get in and out of with no real transit. They have pretty much used up any and every small space left by maximizing via towers. No urban planning at all._
_____________________________________

unfortunately developers rule the roost. especially with their pal doug ford as premier.

lots of developers sitting on land right now crying about not having access to the green belt.

#225 crazyfox on 03.04.20 at 12:52 pm

172 Dmitry on 03.04.20 at 6:27 am

No doubt the world needs to get ahead of this thing. The lesson or example we can look to if we don’t, is Wuhan.

The exponential growth we are seeing out of Iran and Italy is mirroring what we have seen out of Wuhan. Both nations have less resources and less developed health and education systems than China. Italy might be on par with China and some respects but I don’t think so, certainly not comparing the level of national support. Germany, France, Spain, certainly these governments and their systems will be widely tested. India has 28 cases, up from 7 yesterday.

It’s a mugs game to come up with global numbers at this point here monthly into the next year and annually over the next 5 years, but I’ll do it just to give readers some kind of template of what to expect, what outlook we can expect economically, likely tomorrow or the next. My own economic opinion mirrors Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO from Guggenheim (275 billion under management) from last week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2ZuC0kjI74

Weirdly, he follows this website as I do mainly, because he gets it:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

With PMI factory numbers around 35 and the rest of these numbers if they hold water:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/02/coronavirus-impact-this-chart-shows-chinese-nowhere-near-back-to-work/#542adf8859cb

It all further strengthens Scott’s argument for future inflation.

#226 Penny Henny on 03.04.20 at 12:55 pm

#207 MF on 03.04.20 at 11:05 am
99 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40

lol buddy my parents are one of these boomer couples that bought in decades ago..with zero mortgage. Already confirmed I’ll get the house. Up she goes? I benefit personally as well.

Psst they also have lots invested.

In short, I think I’ll be alright.

It’s you I’m worried about. My fellow Canadian who is getting more and more screwed.

But please, tell me about lawns.

MF
//////////////

By the time you inherit the house you might be too old and frail to rake your own leaves.

#227 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 12:56 pm

With a $350B unrepayable sovereign debt (and heading much higher), a rapidly falling median income and now a housing bubble on steroids, it will probably be Ontario that causes the end of the country one day.

#228 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 1:03 pm

#182 Howard on 03.04.20 at 8:53 am
#173 Ronaldo on 03.04.20 at 6:55 am

Well in fairness, Boomers are not to blame for electing the most incompetent, nation-destroying government in Canadian history. That “achievement” is on Millennial voters, particularly of the female persuasion.
——————————————————————
That I totally agree on. The very worst indeed.

#229 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 1:08 pm

@#206 ts on 03.04.20 at 11:01 am
#199 oh bouy

MF is absolutely correct. Stop spreading your lies. You have no idea what kind of toll the covid 19 will take on Canada’s economy – it will be ravaged as per Morneau. Who then will buy your precious houses? Blackstone?
_____________________________________

lol, shouldn’t you be at costco prepping.
my homes aren’t for sale.

#230 IHCTD9 on 03.04.20 at 1:19 pm

#217 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 11:47 am
#207 MF on 03.04.20 at 11:05 am
99 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 10:40

lol buddy my parents are one of these boomer couples that bought in decades ago..with zero mortgage.

Already confirmed I’ll get the house. Up she goes? I benefit personally as well.

——————————

Sure, in 40 years that house will be all yours. Unless the big C (Corona) gets them.

Hmm… would that be a benefit? Such questions…
___

If MF’s parents have not lived a Smoking Man lifestyle, he could easily hit retirement before moving in.

My Maternal Grandfathers’ eldest child was near 78 when he passed on.

Hell, I’m not 50 yet and I’m already downsizing and simplifying. The big spending years are coming to a close, and we’re already casting an occasional eye towards retirement and making little preparations and plans.

Probably the last new hobby I’d want to pick up at 78 is mowing lawn and raking leaves…

#231 IHCTD9 on 03.04.20 at 1:41 pm

#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am
Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.

Where are the protestors for that?

Seriously Canada why would you stuff yourselves into boxes in the sky in that place? Just to see a raptors game?

You can buy 50 acres of land outside Calgary for the price of a concrete box in Toronto. You could buy a home on land in Calgary and Scottsdale, AZ for the price of a SFH in Toronto.
___

5-600K for a 1 bedder in Toronto proper is going to run a guy 3100.00/mo. or so all in. That payment will get you an absolutely beautiful 700K home out my way.

Or a very nice brand new home, PLUS a brand new ’20 Sierra Denali 2500HD Duramax, a brand new ’20 YAMAHA Wolverine X2 SE R-Spec, a matching pair of ’20 YAMAHA Grizzly 700 SE’s, a new 200 HP Bass Boat of your choice, a couple Gibson Custom shop axes and a full H+K Stack, and you’d STILL have 10’s of thousands left to blow on other stuff – like maybe putting a wing on your garage.

I have to assume anyone buying a 500 sf 1 bedder in Toronto for over a half Mil is suffering massively from target fixation, OR is trying for a flip.

#232 oh bouy on 03.04.20 at 1:47 pm

@#231 IHCTD9 on 03.04.20 at 1:41 pm
#202 not 1st on 03.04.20 at 10:51 am
Maybe woke Toronto will have to start bulldozing their precious green belt to handle all the new home construction.

Where are the protestors for that?

Seriously Canada why would you stuff yourselves into boxes in the sky in that place? Just to see a raptors game?

You can buy 50 acres of land outside Calgary for the price of a concrete box in Toronto. You could buy a home on land in Calgary and Scottsdale, AZ for the price of a SFH in Toronto.
___

5-600K for a 1 bedder in Toronto proper is going to run a guy 3100.00/mo. or so all in. That payment will get you an absolutely beautiful 700K home out my way.

Or a very nice brand new home, PLUS a brand new ’20 Sierra Denali 2500HD Duramax, a brand new ’20 YAMAHA Wolverine X2 SE R-Spec, a matching pair of ’20 YAMAHA Grizzly 700 SE’s, a new 200 HP Bass Boat of your choice, a couple Gibson Custom shop axes and a full H+K Stack, and you’d STILL have 10’s of thousands left to blow on other stuff – like maybe putting a wing on your garage.

I have to assume anyone buying a 500 sf 1 bedder in Toronto for over a half Mil is suffering massively from target fixation, OR is trying for a flip.
_________________________________

the more I read your posts the more I want to cash out of TO and move to the hinterland lol

#233 Steve on 03.04.20 at 2:21 pm

#222 Greg on 03.04.20 at 12:31 pm
China avoided mass contamination by forcing people to stay home, they would go as far as weld doors of infected building. I don’t see how these extreme mesures could be implemented elsewhere. We are in trouble.

So weld yourself in. We’ll wait. – Garth

CRAP! Now I have to suit up again, leave the bunker, and go out to buy an arc welder…

#234 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 2:31 pm

#230 IHCTD9 on 03.04.20 at 1:19 pm

Hell, I’m not 50 yet and I’m already downsizing and simplifying.

The big spending years are coming to a close, and we’re already casting an occasional eye towards retirement and making little preparations and plans.

Probably the last new hobby I’d want to pick up at 78 is mowing lawn and raking leaves…

———————–

Yes, likewise.

Nearly all spending for us now is discretionary. I would personally be unhappy renting at this stage in life because: fabrication shop, woodworking shop, dogs, cats, boats… basically, full autonomy.

And, of course, we can change anything with the house anytime. Currently taking great pleasure installing a red potbellied woodstove in the hangout room. I greatly enjoy diy renovation projects. When we do a home project, it might take 6 months of off and on work, but it will be perfect in the end. The cost would be astronomical if paying hourly- so, expensive and not exactly as desired…