The big swing

Well, here we go.

On the weekend we told you CBs would not sit back and leave the world wheezing, coughing, fretting and snorting. Already the Bank of Japan has ponied up a pile of cash. The Chinese bank is doing the same. The US Fed will be cutting this month and the Bank of Canada’s expected to go on Wednesday.

It’s been wild. Wall Street futures opened down 800 points Sunday night, climbed into +200-point territory by dawn, then sank again. Then revived. Then soared. Mr. Market is trying hard to determine the correct level of risk in a fluid situation, and there’s no clarity yet. So big swings. Volatility will continue to spike, and central banks will move in to try and adult.

By the way, here’s this blog’s latest thinking (feel free to take notes): humanity is not pooched. Millions will not die. Covid-19 will get a vaccine (probably) and become the fifth widely-circulated and seasonal virus in the world that everyone just accepts as normal. Yeah, like the flu (which killed 56,000 Americans last year and 3,500 Canadians). Once the toilet-paper panic and mass work-from-home quarantines end, we’ll recover our perspective. Just don’t eat the wild life.

By the way, this prediction just crossed my path from a usually-credible source (Pennock Idea Hub):

We believe the global economy is undergoing a period of stress that will take some time to resolve. Asset prices are likely to be highly volatile for the next few months until the full extent of the uncertainty is resolved. In the short run, the stock market is extremely oversold and washed out. A relief rally and climactic price reversal can happen at any time. However, we expect any rally would be followed by re-tests of the old lows, which may not necessarily be successful.

So here’s the latest. Odds are running 70% or higher the Bank of Canada will cut its rate this week. Investors have fully priced in another chop in April. And there will be (the thinking goes) yet another after that. The central bank rate of 1.75% will become just 1%. And, by the way, the bond market has already arrived there – look at the yield on Government of Canada debt Monday morning. It actually dipped below 1% for a while:

Down she goes: Canada bond scraps 1% mark

So the prime will be going down, along with loan, mortgage, GIC and savings rates. With $45 oil, heavy losses on Bay Street, God-knows-what’s going on with FNs, and now the virus, BoC gov Poloz has no choice. This is 2015 all over again, when crashing crude sent him into emergency mode. Down came rates and 18 months later we had a real estate bubble so big – 30% yearly gains – that governments move in to beat it back.

So will the virus cuts do the same in the Spring of ‘20? Will people be buying houses in a panic because they’re seized with FOMO and hopped up on 1.99% five-year mortgage money?

Well, loan rates are going down. Sure thing. By how much remains unknown since cheapo rates hurt the banks, and the virus is doing them no favours as business activity slows and Canada’s resource sector groans.

Here are the GF reasons why cheap rates will make houses more affordable, but we’re unlikely to see The Bubble come back with the same gaseous impact as four years ago:

  • Falling financial markets spook people, even if they’re not investors. It prompts talk of a recession (a good likelihood in Canada, given the oil situation), which means job insecurity. That inhibits big-ticket purchases like a house.
  • The luxury end of the housing market is most susceptible to damage. Wealthy people buying $2 million or $3 million digs typically have a lot of financial market exposure. So current events have rattled them. Not good for sales. Trickle-down anxiety.
  • Chinese buyers? Fuggedaboutit. While the impact of foreign dudes with piles of money has always been exaggerated, they have nonetheless been one factor feeding prices. But the Chinese economy is a smoky hole right now and will take a long while to recover.
  • As for multiple bids resulting from packed open houses, that may not be happening in Toronto or Vancouver next month or into May. When people are lining up for hours to buy 3,000 rolls of toilet paper you know something’s squirrely.
  • So if (when) the virus spreads some owners will not want people trooping through their houses, throwing germs, cooties and micro-droplets all over the place. The flood of juicy new listings realtors were expecting this season may fizzle.
  • American realtors are yammering about an overall 10% price drop for houses in the next few months, despite an anticipated decline in US mortgage rates (where people can lock in a cheap price for 30 years).

As stated here on the weekend, nobody knows what comes next. Stocks markets have oversold. Volatility will reign. People are acting stupid. Rates are dropping. And it’s March. Make yourself feel better. Go get a puppy. Or a new car. It’s all good.

165 comments ↓

#1 Mauro on 03.02.20 at 3:51 pm

On the way up!

#2 Mauro on 03.02.20 at 3:55 pm

People ran scared and sold, they are now panic buying to get back in the game. In a few months no one will even remember this virus.

#3 Rexx Rock on 03.02.20 at 3:56 pm

Wow so far a 1200 point day on the Dow and a 300 points on the Nasdaq.I knew the fed would could come through.They will lower interest rates to a Big fat 0%.Canada will also match it.Good times baby!

#4 Bob Dog on 03.02.20 at 4:01 pm

Sure dropping rates will cure the virus.

Bankers are terrorists. Politicians are puppets.

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 03.02.20 at 4:02 pm

“Will people be buying houses in a panic because they’re seized with FOMO and hopped up on 1.99% five-year mortgage money?” – G.T.

Not interested in the 5 year mortgage anymore. I want a steal of a deal! I want a 10 year locked in at under 2.5%!

Now, which bank wants my money?

#6 NoName on 03.02.20 at 4:03 pm

Take a look at the kid in the background whipping a stick, where are the parents of that poor child. Can someone call child services.

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 4:05 pm

Reassuring words but I’ll pass on the puppy for now and my 2014 Toyota Tacoma should last me another 15 years at least.

Just keep pounding money into the investment plan….

#8 Stan Brooks on 03.02.20 at 4:12 pm

1 % ’emergency’ rates for 12 years with inflation of necessities north of 8 %.

All is good… Sure.

We are experiencing inflation that de-facto destroys everything – productivity, savings, pensions, wages.

Let’s see for how long will the stupid sheeple continue to obey and pay astronomical prices for POS standard of living while being paid peanuts in ever declining wages.

The opportunity of a lifetime to cash out and move all your capital out is now.

It won’t last long.

Cheers,

#9 jerry on 03.02.20 at 4:24 pm

Do bond funds versus individual bonds have an advantage in turbulent times such as these?

#10 Marco on 03.02.20 at 4:28 pm

The best health care in the world say: Self isolate and virus will cure itself.

#11 FreeBird on 03.02.20 at 4:29 pm

Followed sounds of chirping (assumed to be cell phone or some device) to find small birds in back garden pecking away on seeds from flowers and a robin. This was the hope last fall when we left them vs cutting back. This after successfully installing new door knobs. What does all this have to do with viruses, stocks, houses or politics? Nothing. But it helps. Despite. Anyway.

#12 JonBoy on 03.02.20 at 4:35 pm

Working on finding a new car. Thanks for the advice!

And by new, I mean, “New to me” – I’d never buy a brand new car…

:)

#13 Timing? on 03.02.20 at 4:37 pm

Soooooo, sell the house to buy tons of ETF’s, and move to a beautiful tropical island for the next year or so while it all settles down. Got ya.

#14 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 4:43 pm

#11 FreeBird on 03.02.20 at 4:29 pm

Followed sounds of chirping (assumed to be cell phone or some device) to find small birds in back garden pecking away on seeds from flowers and a robin. This was the hope last fall when we left them vs cutting back. This after successfully installing new door knobs. What does all this have to do with viruses, stocks, houses or politics? Nothing. But it helps. Despite. Anyway.

————————–

Viruses, stocks, houses and politics nothing.

How do the doorknobs fit in the story?

#15 Dave on 03.02.20 at 4:45 pm

Is the government going to intervene with Condo insurance…otherwise this is huge risk to BC economy????

#16 Abby on 03.02.20 at 4:50 pm

This. FOMO is real.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/f987i9/a_million_dollars_in_debt_at_at_30/

#17 jess on 03.02.20 at 4:54 pm

over 300 people tested /day with a drive through in s. Korea and it is FREE
https://www.cnn.com/videos/sports/2020/03/02/japan-sports-suffer-cancellations-coronavirus-tokyo-2020-baseball-spt-intl.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/

#18 MF on 03.02.20 at 4:55 pm

Mauro on 03.02.20 at 3:55 pm

I wouldn’t be so smug.

Some of the biggest daily gains came during the financial crisis in 08.

The news is not getting better. You can’t believe anything from China. Outside of China, none of the news is positive.

Garth said it, expect much more volatility. Big down days coming. How can they not be? There will be big economic implications as the spread gets worse.

MF

#19 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 4:58 pm

And that, my friends, was the reason to deploy a portion of cash last Friday. As with all investing, one must operate on incomplete information.

#20 DrC on 03.02.20 at 5:00 pm

Should have listened to you. Damn…

#21 Mr Fundamental on 03.02.20 at 5:04 pm

The best time to buy equities was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. Keep piling up those equities in your RRSP and TFSA, and you’ll be very happy with your investments in 10 years.

What breed of puppy do you recommend?

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 5:12 pm

My Goodness !
Aiiii Yaaaa!

Chinese tea is hitting the ceiling from Beijing to Vancouver’s toney Shaunessy neighborhood….

Meng’s extradition hearing just got a tad more interesting…

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN20P1VA

#23 Apocalypse2020 on 03.02.20 at 5:14 pm

Hope you are right, Mr Turner. But the Ides of March are only days away now.

#24 Guy in Calgary on 03.02.20 at 5:22 pm

#8 Stan Brooks on 03.02.20 at 4:12 pm
1 % ’emergency’ rates for 12 years with inflation of necessities north of 8 %.

All is good… Sure.

We are experiencing inflation that de-facto destroys everything – productivity, savings, pensions, wages.

Let’s see for how long will the stupid sheeple continue to obey and pay astronomical prices for POS standard of living while being paid peanuts in ever declining wages.
—————————————————————–

Where are you referring to when you mention a POS standard of living? Surely not Canada…

#25 KNOW IT ALL on 03.02.20 at 5:24 pm

Markets ARE NOT oversold.

Stocks have been at all-time highs selling far above their intrinsic value for sometime now.

Government Helicopter money can only work for so long until it can’t and then what?

If profits and dividends are being faked because of sharebuy backs and borrowing cheap money rather than organic growth then we have a problem.

We have a saying in the old country “NOTHING lasts forever”.

Name me something that has??

Get ready for a real shocker… with or without Coronavirus.

#26 CEW9 on 03.02.20 at 5:24 pm

#8 Stan Brooks on 03.02.20 at 4:12 pm

1 % ’emergency’ rates for 12 years with inflation of necessities north of 8 %.

All is good… Sure.

We are experiencing inflation that de-facto destroys everything – productivity, savings, pensions, wages.

Let’s see for how long will the stupid sheeple continue to obey and pay astronomical prices for POS standard of living while being paid peanuts in ever declining wages.

The opportunity of a lifetime to cash out and move all your capital out is now.

It won’t last long.

Cheers,

* * * * *

If you have assets to cash out, go for it. Some of us are just getting into the game and when there is only one game in town, that’s the game you play.

Even you can’t say for sure where it will end up in 30 years. My educated guess is up.

#27 Please on 03.02.20 at 5:29 pm

#11 FreeBird: Please spare us your inane drivel. It’s not cute or entertaining. I wish Garth would ban you and people like you.

#28 G man on 03.02.20 at 5:31 pm

This is what happens when people stop spending money at (dumpling) restaurants. The news scares you then you go stock up on food, toilet paper and junk so they still make you spend tax tax tax great country. Instead of saying no one in and no one out to keep the virus contained. And this so called bubble that’s going to blow in Vancouver drop house prices that will never happen. Make Canada Great Again

#29 Pennock Idea Hub on 03.02.20 at 5:35 pm

I like that analysis
Looks like a pretty cheap daily comment to subscribe
I guess you do as well.
Yes I bought today some good dividend stocks.
I am amazed at volatility made 10 percent in 6 weeks
Lost 10 percent in 7 days made 2 percent today.
Yikes
I agree we do not know the future, I think the number of cases will spike real high in the short term because of governments not acting quicker. We need to shut down travel for two weeks, at least please quarantine everyone from Oran and Italy and China.
Common sense.
Problem solved.

#30 Jesse on 03.02.20 at 5:37 pm

Do the folks at TI still have the same rosy view of prefs? It hurts my heart whenever see the -10% next to my CPD holdings.

#31 Andrew on 03.02.20 at 5:39 pm

https://twitter.com/econguyrosie/status/1234585440126029824?s=21

#32 Ok. . .so here it is on 03.02.20 at 5:45 pm

Picture this, a house comes to market in an old estate neighborhood outside of Milton – Garth you know the area. . .your old street. . . .(tells you how long I’ve been in the area) Anywho the house hasn’t been updated one bit since it was built. . .it’s a time capsule of the late 80’s with a basement that smells musty, low ceilings, icky stained carpet and felt dark and cramped. Sure the outside looks picture perfect. . .but inside – a total gut job. However, the Mercedes and Audi’s rolling up, all the buyers, all the agents and it wasn’t even an open house!

I thought I was having flash backs to the height of the market. . .it was scary. From what I saw, it looked like a feeding frenzy of people clammering to buy and with a price tag we’ll above 1 – I was caught a bit off guard by all the commotion. Now to some I may seem like an old fart, but I tell ya, this spring market looks like it’s got legs and going to be crazy.

#33 Nonplused on 03.02.20 at 5:53 pm

I predicted here yesterday that today would be an up-day due to Biden winning his primary yesterday. My theory was that Covid-19 was not the only factor weighing on stocks, many people are rightly afraid of what a socialist president would do to the US and indeed world economy.

Now 2 more also-rans have dropped out of the race, reducing the field to just Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg and Warren (and Gabbard, but I think she drops out and supports Biden after tomorrow. To bad, she was probably the best candidate. Maybe she’ll be VP.)

Anyway, with the field narrowing I think tomorrow might be another up-day, and if Biden wins tomorrow then Wednesday should be a big up-day.

I wonder if we end up seeing a Biden-Gabbard vs. Sanders-Warren ticket? Socialists vs. moderates? Probably not Gabbard because she doesn’t bring enough support with her. Maybe in 2024.

———————–

Boy things are getting crazy in the US. We should call it “toilet paper virus”. Things are still pretty normal in Canada so far as I know but that could turn on a dime.

The thing is, people hording stuff that they don’t need like 6 bags of Costco toilet paper could create the very sort of crisis prepping was meant to avoid in the first place. Oh well who ever said people were rational.

#34 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 6:01 pm

Mike and the Rat Part 3: Show and Tell

The rat became a pet on Sunday. Show and tell was Tuesday. Mike was a devoted owner: setting up the cage with bedding, feeding and watering the rat, cracking open the door to admire him, and most importantly, keeping all knowledge from his parents.

The big day arrived. Mike and brother Darrell wrestled the cage into a gunnysack. Rats being rats, after two days, the bottom of the cage was oozing rat urine and stank to high heaven. The bus driver asked what was in the sack as we dragged it onboard, and after being told, said, ‘keep it on the floor’. At school, the rat was stashed in the cloakroom.

The reveal:

Mike proudly walked to the front of the class, plunked the cage on the table and announced his pet rat. Nothing could be seen through the solid boards of the cage. One kid asked, ‘Can we pet him?’ Mike said, ‘Yep’. Another kid asked, ‘Does he bite?’ Mike said, ‘Nope, he don’t bite. He’s my pet’.

And he actually believed it.

Mike removed the door panel, reached in, then yanked his hand back… with a rat hanging off his finger. The rat hit the floor, Miss Rowe shrieked and jumped on a chair, all the girls in class did the same, and a mob of 9 year old boys descended on the terrified rat. Mayhem ensued. Yelling boys, screaming girls, chairs and desks toppling. The rat lapped the classroom twice before holing up under the bookcase, surrounded by the posse. The janitor, hearing the noise, came in and assessed the situation, then herded the rat into a garbage can and dumped him back in the cage. Mike was sent to the nurse for patching and returned cheerfully sporting a bandaged finger and trying to catch Annemarie’s eye.

The agitated rat, in the meantime, discovered a board dislodged during transit, and set to chewing. By the end of the schoolday, the cage was empty and the rat gone. He passed into legend; growing larger and more bloodthirsty with the telling. Participants and witnesses gained minor celebrity status and Mike basked in the glow, displaying his wound on request.

Annemarie’s friend even passed Mike a note: ‘Do you like Annemarie? Check yes or no.’

The girls refused to use the cloakroom for the rest of the year, storing their jackets and lunches at their desks, with Miss Rowe’s approval.

Mike wasn’t upset at the loss. “I would’ve let him go anyway”, he said, “he wasn’t a good pet.”

#35 Politico on 03.02.20 at 6:02 pm

So here is the other side of the story that CBC doesn’t like to talk about:

https://boereport.com/2020/03/02/wetsuweten-supporters-of-pipeline-dont-think-their-message-is-being-heard/

#36 Treasure Island CEO - 166,435,352.88 Offshore, on 03.02.20 at 6:13 pm

I know what comes next:

Let’s take the deal of the decade in discounted interest rates in 2017 at 2.49%. If we get to 1.9% on the discounted fixed rate this year and jobs hold up (meaning no real uptick in unemployment) then expect house prices to shoot 11.2% up on the average house anywhere outside of AB and SK. Yes you heard that right. Time stamp this post.

The pent up demand by younger job holders is nuts right now and easing credit is going to unleash it. Surrey and Kelowna will be the biggest winners.

Next, there are massive ways to make money on this volatility. More spikes will happen but until a vaccine is found (which will be the mother jump of all in markets if credit isn’t frozen and/or fallen apart by then) we will see deterioration with CB induced spikes like today.

Seattle break out finally happened. Can’t help but wonder why the same community outbreak like Seattle has not hit Vancouver yet, but it is coming. I would not want to be in healthcare on the front lines. This is going to get worse before it gets better. I believe a recession (global and in Canada) is baked in for this year (even if only technical). I mean it is already happening, but under current circumstances could snap back positive rapidly given that there are still strong fundamentals holding in the economy; however, and just for clarity an all out collapse and depression is not off the table ;)

#37 GrumpyPanda on 03.02.20 at 6:20 pm

Apparently the twenty largest percentage moves on the DJIA 16 occurred between 1929 and 1932. Today didn’t come close. This may speak to the effectiveness of circuit breakers. And yes we should be S&p 500 focused.

#38 Shirl Clarts on 03.02.20 at 6:20 pm

#14 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 4:43 pm
#11 FreeBird on 03.02.20 at 4:29 pm

Followed sounds of chirping (assumed to be cell phone or some device) to find small birds in back garden pecking away on seeds from flowers and a robin. This was the hope last fall when we left them vs cutting back. This after successfully installing new door knobs. What does all this have to do with viruses, stocks, houses or politics? Nothing. But it helps. Despite. Anyway.

————————–

Viruses, stocks, houses and politics nothing.

How do the doorknobs fit in the story?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
C’mon, Sail! Be a Titan, leave it alone.

https://youtu.be/A4Wdpwi5wCQ

#39 David Prokop on 03.02.20 at 6:22 pm

Bear market rallies are the most viscious ones…
It’s not over until it’s over

#40 Have you noticed on 03.02.20 at 6:28 pm

Just an observation but…….

Crowdedfartz and Sail Away are usually here within minutes of each other every single day.
Check it out.
Is it possible they are the same entity?

Also noticing that Sail Away has multiple antidotes for every occasion as does Fartzy.

Co-ink-ka-dink?
Maybe

#41 Vantage West on 03.02.20 at 6:33 pm

Multiple bids happening on most singles under 750k in Kelowna. The gift that keeps on giving.

I mean, could you imagine getting a nice newer built custom house with a yard and some views of water or mountains anywhere in Vancouver today for 750K? There would be a feeding frenzy triple to what is currently happening here. The fact is, Vancouver is finished and the boomers have no problem waving goodbye to the lower mainland.

And you can actually swim in the fresh water lake when stretching out on the beaches here. Heck you can drive an hour to find beaches where you don’t have to share with anyone else. Peaceful.

Top tier Doctor Specialists of all kinds are taking their careers to the new infrastructure like the new Cardiac Center in Kelowna and boomers (whether they like it or not) need to be within proximity to these services. It used to be you had to go to Vancouver. Not anymore. And the incomes from these occupations allows one to live like a king in this area instead of like a regular Joe in unaffordable places like Vancouver.

And look at the second coming of the cultural district revamp in Kelwona North in line with high tech growth.

This place is booming. 34 towers on the books to break ground.

Just like Vancouver and Richmond in 2007, today’s prices in Kelowna are going to look cheap in 15 years, especially when you consider the ongoing erosion of CAD purchasing power brought to you by the central bankers who will continue with the game of money printing and buying up all securities as a last resort.

The show must go on.

And as long as the wildfires do not appear all summer like some of the past summers (last summer was great), this is not a bad place to be.

#42 Harold on 03.02.20 at 6:34 pm

I opened tfsa and rrsp investing accounts this past week and have put large amounts in but no idea what to do. I know, I know, I am the reason financial advisors make a killing. But what is a safe 50% 50% bond vs stocks type of move? I see people posting they bought bank stocks and ETF’s and e-series funds. I wonder if just keeping the money in a savings TFSA was the way to go but someone said even the most conservative funds give you 1.6% or more which is better than most big bank rates.

#43 Marco on 03.02.20 at 6:34 pm

This is what happens when people stop spending money at (dumpling) restaurants. The news scares you then you go stock up on food, toilet paper and junk so they still make you spend tax tax tax great country. Instead of saying no one in and no one out to keep the virus contained. And this so called bubble that’s going to blow in Vancouver drop house prices that will never happen. Make Canada Great Again

When Canada was great. Ever?

#44 MF on 03.02.20 at 6:41 pm

#19 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 4:58 pm

Largest daily percentage gains in history:

1) 1933
2) 1931
3) 1929
4) 1932
5) 2008
6) 2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Conclusion: 1 day swings mean nothing. The top 4 percentage gain days actually occurred during the great depression.

Let that sink in for a little.

The great depression.

It took decades for the market to bounce back after that. Number 5 and 6 occured in 2008, during the GFC. The rebound that occured then was purely a result of central bank intervention. This time around, rates have waaaay less to fall to generate that kind of stimulus. I’m not comparing the current situation to 2008, just saying caution is 100% warranted and that today meant nothing. We aren’t out of the woods yet. Far from it.

MF

#45 Marco on 03.02.20 at 6:41 pm

All investor class, here. Where are users, mental patients and the rest of canada?

#46 yorkville renter on 03.02.20 at 6:49 pm

“Go get a puppy. Or a new car. It’s all good.”

Done! New car acquired!

#47 Msrk on 03.02.20 at 6:53 pm

Bonds are worthless pay nothing.
People are forced into mostly all equity investment.
Ya right there a stabilizer useless one that pay negative rate after inflation.
What a ponzi schemes.

#48 Shirl Clarts on 03.02.20 at 6:53 pm

#29 Jesse on 03.02.20 at 5:37 pm
Do the folks at TI still have the same rosy view of prefs? It hurts my heart whenever see the -10% next to my CPD holdings.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The Clarts shares your hurt. It’s merely a timing issue.

I picked up a whack of ZPR on Nov 5 2018 and it quickly sank a week later. So my losses are closer to -17%.

However, the dividend increased last month to 5.99%. Still, I’d rather be looking at green gains instead of red losses. Too bad I didn’t wait a week.

#49 Camille on 03.02.20 at 6:54 pm

Nothing to add to this…
NYT reports “in China, where the epidemic erupted and where the overwhelming majority of cases have been identified, officials continue to get the spread under control. They reported 202 new cases — the lowest daily total since January.”

#50 Steven Rowlandson on 03.02.20 at 6:57 pm

What kind of a discount on price would a 1% bond have?

#51 Yukon Elvis on 03.02.20 at 7:02 pm

I bought today. Blue chip bank common stock paying 5.65% div., p/e ratio of 9.2 too good to pass up. Still have some cash on the sidelines if things dip again later in the week……..I think the spring housing market will be hot hot hot.

#52 not 1st on 03.02.20 at 7:17 pm

I phoned RBC and asked them what rates would have to be for it to be worth taking a penalty to break my current 5 yr mortgage.

He said its probably not worth it for you, rates would have to fall to 2% to be worthwhile.

I said I will call him back in a month to talk a 10yr @ 3%.

#53 LP on 03.02.20 at 7:21 pm

@ #12

Last week I, too, bought a new-to-me car but I can’t say what kind for fear of upsetting Garth’s tender sensibilities. Way less cargo space but it’s shorter and narrower enough that next winter I’ll be able to park in the garage that is included in my rent. I won’t have to brush off snow and scrape ice from my car.

F72ON

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 7:22 pm

@#37 Sail Away

I’m gonna pay for this with the pc crowd but……

Awesome pet rat story.

#55 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 7:24 pm

MF,

VUS is up 4% today. I agree it might not mean a whole lot, but it does mean something. I’m happier with 4 up than 4 down in any case.

If drops continue, I’ll continue buying.

#56 Sold Out on 03.02.20 at 7:25 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/07/20/men-who-harass-women-online-are-quite-literally-losers-new-study-finds/#click=https://t.co/fKMBc4fBv9

And literally no women, anywhere, are surprised.

#57 just snootin' on 03.02.20 at 7:27 pm

“Here are the GF reasons why…”

Those are gf’ing reasons, fer sure.

#58 al on 03.02.20 at 7:37 pm

Any minor wobble they cut rates. It’s so predictable that when the recession actually hits we’ll already be near 0 it will be resilient to any expected cuts as they will already be priced in.

#59 Yukon Elvis on 03.02.20 at 7:40 pm

#39 Vantage West on 03.02.20 at 6:33 pm
Multiple bids happening on most singles under 750k in Kelowna. The gift that keeps on giving.

I mean, could you imagine getting a nice newer built custom house with a yard and some views of water or mountains anywhere in Vancouver today for 750K? There would be a feeding frenzy triple to what is currently happening here. The fact is, Vancouver is finished and the boomers have no problem waving goodbye to the lower mainland.

And you can actually swim in the fresh water lake when stretching out on the beaches here. Heck you can drive an hour to find beaches where you don’t have to share with anyone else. Peaceful.

Top tier Doctor Specialists of all kinds are taking their careers to the new infrastructure like the new Cardiac Center in Kelowna and boomers (whether they like it or not) need to be within proximity to these services. It used to be you had to go to Vancouver. Not anymore. And the incomes from these occupations allows one to live like a king in this area instead of like a regular Joe in unaffordable places like Vancouver.

And look at the second coming of the cultural district revamp in Kelwona North in line with high tech growth.

This place is booming. 34 towers on the books to break ground.

Just like Vancouver and Richmond in 2007, today’s prices in Kelowna are going to look cheap in 15 years, especially when you consider the ongoing erosion of CAD purchasing power brought to you by the central bankers who will continue with the game of money printing and buying up all securities as a last resort.

The show must go on.

And as long as the wildfires do not appear all summer like some of the past summers (last summer was great), this is not a bad place to be.
……………………………………..

Elvis has a condo in Kelowna. Lives there sometimes. Lots of people in a small valley. Traffic. Lots of old slow drivers. Beaches are mostly rocky. Water is cold. Goose poop everwhere. Can’t shoot the bastards either. Protected. Needles laying around. Quite a few homeless. Panhandlers. Homeless camp in the North end of town in your “cultural district”. Not much lake or mountain view in the summer fire season when the smoke moves in. Air quality alerts. Medications. Had to leave town the past two summers cuz of it. Try golfing in 33 degree heat. Lots of overcast cloud in the winter. Not much sun. Not much of an economy either. Tourism, agriculture, hospitality, retail. OK if u are on a pension and have money, not so good if u are starting out. Housing is not a bargain relative to wages and salaries. Lots of kids move away to find jobs unless the parents can stake them. No night life to speak of. Place is getting more crowded and congested every year. Most locals dread tourist season. Been here 27 years. Your mileage may vary.

#60 The Dude on 03.02.20 at 7:57 pm

Even better, we just got a cat
Meow

#61 Frustrated Canuck on 03.02.20 at 8:25 pm

Agree, market may have oversold, for now. No one says the worst is over. WHO does a 180 and now says containment might work after digging in and laughing at containment. Too bad for Canada who listened to the open borders nonsense while all other countries had defaulted to containment early. Our health officials are running backwards while cases skyrocket and tell us to stock up on dry ramen. Not good for Canada. Removing the long standing signage regarding bringing disease and pestilence at the airports and replacing with voluntary disclosure has left Canada wide open to people from virulent elsewhere to produce panicked HazMat teams in several Canadian cities. Trudeaus fall back on UN crazies may well have been the wrong thing to do.

#62 Lorne on 03.02.20 at 8:27 pm

#15 Dave on 03.02.20 at 4:45 pm
Is the government going to intervene with Condo insurance…otherwise this is huge risk to BC economy????
…..
What, private insurance isn’t working for the customer in this case and the government should bail the condo owner’s out? These same condo owners, many of who, along with others, have been complaining about ICBC government insurance being too expensive…and it should be put in the hands of private insurance companies? You can’t have it both ways!

#63 Long-Time Lurker on 03.02.20 at 8:36 pm

I actually read all of yesterday’s comments. Now I know why people smoke weed.

I just looked at today’s… Yeah.

#64 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 8:37 pm

Wow. I’m pretty sure that no one who comments at this blog has ever written a 3 part story just for me before. I’m shookth!

That he(she?) would take the time — not just on one day, but for THREE(!) days in a row — to write me a carefully crafted story (something about a smelly, caged, urine-saturated pet rat they were happy to see take off during show&tell, never to return) is unusual, to say the least.

The entire 3-part story is much too long for me to copy/paste into one comment, but for those who may have missed any of it, I have posted references to each of the three parts below:

#117 Sail Away on 02.29.20
“Blackdog, Here’s a little story, called
‘Mike and the Rat’
Mike and the Rat, Part 1”

#96 Sail away on 03.01.20
“Mike and the Rat Part 2: Capture”

#33 Sail away on 03.02.20
“Mike and the Rat Part 3: Show and Tell”

#65 Caledondave on 03.02.20 at 8:46 pm

I didn’t know there were comments below because I was watching the doggie on the swing. He looks like he was really enjoying him/her/itself. Your blog was a bit late being posted today. I bet you were looking for a suitable photo/video. What you have shown is priceless.

#66 mike from mtl on 03.02.20 at 8:48 pm

#46 Shirl Clarts on 03.02.20 at 6:53 pm
…..
However, the dividend increased last month to 5.99%
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Amateur mistake, the real payout has not increased one bit, the exact same 0.43/sh all year. In fact this is actually decreasing as the new issues reset even lower, it used to be 0.45 & 0.48 a few years ago.

Price, Yield and ‘total return’ are three completely different things.

#67 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 8:49 pm

@#52Fartz re: “@#37 Sail Away

I’m gonna pay for this with the pc crowd but……

Awesome pet rat story. ”

Why would you say that Fartz? What could possibly have been considered not to the liking of “the pc crowd”?

#68 Not Drinking on 03.02.20 at 8:59 pm

#33 Sail away

Great story! Reminds me of my youth..

Mine endures the late 70’s. Band teacher asked the class to create a tribute to our favorite bands back then.

One boy in particular was by far the biggest KISS fan one could imagine; yep, the hair, boots, costume etc!

Using his optimism and talent he created a most impressive miniature stage of an actual Kiss concert; pyrotechnics and all the flash.

We all did our boring presentations with the respected boring claps from the students and then came KISS fanitoco himself. Set up his record player; his miniature stage; turned on the music, we were all rocking, he then filled small drums full of gun powder (which the teacher had no idea that he would do this); lit it and all hell broke loose.

Besides his losing most of his hair and eyelashes; set off the sprinkler system above his display, someone pulled the fire alarm, we were all evacuated, fire department showed up; ah, the good old days! :)

#69 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 9:04 pm

@SailAway,

Perhaps you could be so kind as to add a part 4 to the story you wrote for me.

Might I be so bold as to suggest you write something about how the smelly, pet rat that Mike never liked, and all his classmates were disgusted by, came back. Maybe call it: “Mike and the Rat part 4 – It’s Back!”

I’m waiting with bated breath for the next installment in the three part series you have written me so far. To go out of your way like that, you must really like me, unlike Mike.

#70 MF on 03.02.20 at 9:08 pm

#53 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 7:24 pm

Perhaps. The volitility means great swings up and great swings down.

It’s all about human emotion. The virus thing was new and frightening last week as cases started popped up everywhere. There was a shock factor. Most people haven’t gotten sick yet, so we can become numb to the “perceived threat”. After all, that’s what normal people do: adapt.

However, nothing has changed since last week. The virus is just getting started and many will get sick. It may become more virulent and deadly as it mutates as well. No one knows. But we do know the more cases there are, the more hosts that exist, the more mutations that will occur.

This is not just another common cold or flu. No one has any immunity, and the death rate is much much higher the normal version of this virus our bodies are used to.

The economic disruptions are just beginning. Just wait until the negative reports start coming in. The central banks are out of bullets anyways. The puny rate drops are already priced in, and they are too little to actually matter.

First sign of bad economic news (inevitable) and down she goes with panic selling again.

MF

#71 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 9:18 pm

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 7:22 pm
@#37 Sail Away

I’m gonna pay for this with the pc crowd but……
Awesome pet rat story.

——————————

Thanks.

It’s amazing to realize just how much freedom we had growing up versus the expectations in cities. I’m pretty sure the rat show and tell today would cause a national crisis in a Vancouver elementary school, and the parents would be severely castigated by social services.

Even my kids, to my chagrin, seem to have contracted an aversion to breaking the rules. I encourage them to join in rule-breaking now and again to foster their sense of independence.

As far as we know, Mike’s parents never knew about the rat saga. Or it wasn’t important enough to matter to them. Now Mike is president of an international engineering firm, and I’m president of my (granted, much smaller) engineering firm. Problem solving without being overly constrained by rules at an early age is important.

#72 akashic record on 03.02.20 at 9:18 pm

#146 G on 03.02.20 at 11:52 am
Hi #67 akashic record, re: magnetism explained finally.
Yes interesting stuff he has out. And his “Free” book!
Helps to get a few more neurons firing anyway.
Some just think he’s full of it. But is he??
His presentation style has gotten better or changed over time.
This is one of the first info videos I watched by Ken L. Wheeler that got my attention to look at more of his stuff on YouTube and there is a lot. I eventually started to understand what he was talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hzhikmbEO8&list=PLjz0SgxcrlEbksk1t13CfZt1p6F8wg2ZH&index=56
His free book https://archive.org/details/UncoveringTheMissingSecretsOfMagnetism_201810/mode/2up

Thanks!

I like very much his works. Both about physics and metaphysics.

Like this: METAPHYSICS: Most important question answered

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYOHpiGlpgE

What happens when we die? What happens to our soul?

“Retroduction is not only the best tool that has been lost to humanity, used by ancient Greeks and Indians, it is actually also also, too, the methodology. Retroduction is literally the most important lost art of all humanity … not only the tool for understanding things that are not directly knowable, but also the methodology to find your way back. And I efin mean it. Seeing yourself for what you are not.”

He is a hilarious combination of wisdom, knowledge, humor, self-irony, all wrapped in unexpected cover, full of tattoo.

#73 DON on 03.02.20 at 9:32 pm

#59 Lorne on 03.02.20 at 8:27 pm

#15 Dave on 03.02.20 at 4:45 pm
Is the government going to intervene with Condo insurance…otherwise this is huge risk to BC economy????
…..
What, private insurance isn’t working for the customer in this case and the government should bail the condo owner’s out? These same condo owners, many of who, along with others, have been complaining about ICBC government insurance being too expensive…and it should be put in the hands of private insurance companies? You can’t have it both ways!
++++++++++

It is CANADA wide Dave. Falling windows in Toronto, leaky condos in Vancouver, Air BnB etc.

And not the best timing given current circumstances.

#74 Bill Grable on 03.02.20 at 9:32 pm

#39 Vantage West says it all: “Multiple bids happening on most singles under 750k in Kelowna. The gift that keeps on giving.

I mean, could you imagine getting a nice newer built custom house with a yard and some views of water or mountains anywhere in Vancouver today for 750K? There would be a feeding frenzy triple to what is currently happening here. The fact is, Vancouver is finished and the boomers have no problem waving goodbye to the lower mainland.

And you can actually swim in the fresh water lake when stretching out on the beaches here. Heck you can drive an hour to find beaches where you don’t have to share with anyone else. Peaceful.

Top tier Doctor Specialists of all kinds are taking their careers to the new infrastructure like the new Cardiac Center in Kelowna and boomers (whether they like it or not) need to be within proximity to these services. It used to be you had to go to Vancouver. Not anymore. And the incomes from these occupations allows one to live like a king in this area instead of like a regular Joe in unaffordable places like Vancouver”.

—–

Allow me to add the growing number of people that are really ‘pooched”. Mr. Turner says it all the time and still people don’t listen. DEBT…..no savings. Vancouver is a looming disaster….add the black swan of Covid 19 stupidity – Lord, get me out of here.

#75 Tyberius on 03.02.20 at 9:43 pm

Talking of big swings, the opportunity in energy has only gotten even more compelling with the recent selloff. These have only been as cheap as they are today on two prior occasions: in the early-2000’s during the recession that followed the dotcom bust and during the depths of the financial crisis.
In other words, energy is already priced for recession.

Get your ‘fill’ folks cuz Mr Market ain’t waitin for no-one!

#76 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 10:04 pm

The stock market rally was good to see today, but rate reset preferreds continue downwards. And just when they were starting to go back up. The coming interest rate cuts won’t help either. Yes I know, don’t complain and collect the dividends, eventually (hopefully) they’ll come back.

BTW, does anyone know if it is possible to mute particular commenters, or must one scroll to avoid reading comments from ‘the lost boys’ and the empathetically challenged groupies who spend their lives in the comment section here?

#77 Ed on 03.02.20 at 10:06 pm

The stock market’s unusual pattern last week has historically been a big sell signal. It has only happened 19 times and the strange pattern could be an ominous. Any time, the market experiencing big swings, is a sign of bear market.
Megaphone pattern is a pattern which consists of minimum two higher highs and two lower lows. The pattern is generally formed when the market is highly volatile in nature and traders are not confident about the market direction. Normally this pattern is visible when the market is at its top or bottom. The greater the time frame is better the pattern will work.
But looking at chart and trade war, I m inclined to see the market going down to 1000 region..

#78 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:12 pm

#62 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 8:37 pm

Wow. I’m pretty sure that no one who comments at this blog has ever written a 3 part story just for me before. I’m shookth!

———————-

Aw, glad you appreciated it, BD. Consider it an olive branch.

#79 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:18 pm

#68 Not Drinking on 03.02.20 at 8:59 pm

Re: Kiss

————————

Haha- yes! The 70s.

#80 Dogman01 on 03.02.20 at 10:23 pm

#27 Please on 03.02.20 at 5:29 pm

#11 FreeBird: I wish Garth would ban you and people like you.
——————————————————–

I for one will tolerate what others might perceive as “insane drivel”

Our host’s judgement of what is allowed on his blog demonstrates his wisdom and understanding of free speech.

“To suppress free speech is a double wrong, it violates the rights of the hearer as well as those of the speaker” – Frederick Douglass

Intolerance of others’ views (no matter how ignorant or incoherent they may be) is not simply wrong; in a world where there is no right or wrong, it is worse: it is a sign you are embarrassingly unsophisticated or, possibly, dangerous.”
― Jordan B. Peterson

#81 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:26 pm

BD, did you like the way our hero won the girl? Never before or since has fair maiden been won by smelly rat.

#82 Dale Brennan on 03.02.20 at 10:44 pm

I’m sorry Garth but many times on this forum people where telling you that interest rates were going to drop year after year. Some even said buy long bonds at 4.75% to 5% back in 2008 to 2009 but you did not agree with this.

Many of these bonds, provincial, Canada are now worth $40+ more $100 then versus $140 now. All I can see is they do know what is happening next, they are doing it. They want to push interest rates to crap and less than crap and they are bailing out every irresponsible person, company, government, organization etc that is a debt junkie.

Don’t assume you don’t know who they are. It is the central planners of the world, socialist globalists who disguise behind many names, UN, World Bank, IMF, Liberals, NDP, Labour party, Green Party, social democratic party etc. etc.

The bottom line is they are all thieves and if you don’t let this get posted I will not be surprised at all. I have no sympathy for anyone that is a cheat, liar, thief, legal or illegal otherwise. I know the truth hurts so call me what ever you want but facts are facts. Canada and the western world is a pathetic joke deep in debt and so upside down, screwed up. Good luck to Canada and all the socialism, Liberal, socialist, globalist garbage taught in university, colleges. It is over guys, Canada is done for.

#83 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:49 pm

#70 MF on 03.02.20 at 9:08 pm

——————

Re: Corona

I tend to think it is actually just another flu. Evidence so far seems to indicate that. If different facts emerge, I’m always open to rethinking.

#84 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:59 pm

#40 Have you noticed on 03.02.20 at 6:28 pm
Just an observation but…….

Crowdedfartz and Sail Away are usually here within minutes of each other every single day.
Check it out.
Is it possible they are the same entity?

——————————

Ever watch Total Recall? Hmmmmmm….

#85 Remembrancer on 03.02.20 at 11:06 pm

#67 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 8:49 pm
…not to the liking of “the pc crowd”?
———————————————–
The question to ask is why the need to self-identify as a culturally oppressed underdog while revelling in tweaking the nose of a common standard of behaviour is part of the pathology?

#86 DON on 03.02.20 at 11:08 pm

#76 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 10:04 pm

BTW, does anyone know if it is possible to mute particular commenters, or must one scroll to avoid reading comments from ‘the lost boys’ and the empathetically challenged groupies who spend their lives in the comment section here?

***************
‘Lost boys’ ZING! lol

This appears to be a good, bad and ugly moment. Cue the music, clear the street.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLgJ7pk0X-s

#87 Blog Bunny on 03.02.20 at 11:13 pm

I have not even read the post. The dog pics are pure gold. Going to bed with a huge smile on my face.

#88 SimplyPut7 on 03.03.20 at 12:05 am

The stock market only went up on the hope that the coordinated effort from the central banks around the world will boost share prices. I’m not sure how helping stock markets will help the poor and middle-class feel financially secure when they are told they have to stay home 2 weeks or more because there is an outbreak at their workplace or fear of a possible outbreak at large gatherings (e.g. sporting events in Europe, tourist attractions around the world). Last time I checked most people had very little savings. While most homeowners can put their expenses on their home equity line of credit. What options will renters have?

WHO stated this is not the flu, they said they don’t completely understand the disease and they are still learning. WHO also said people who have severe cases will require cardiac and respiratory machine support for at least a week to recover. Severe cases have life-altering injuries from COVID-19 such as permanent lung damage. I don’t think many countries have the ability to easily “find” organ donors for lung transplants for COVID-19 patients like China.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/02/chinese-doctors-perform-worlds-first-double-lung-transplant-for-coronavirus-victim/

What happens when a friend, coworker or family member gets a severe case and the stories of how hard it is to fight the illness gets out? WHO said the only reason there were not hundreds of thousands of cases and more deaths are because China had the ability to shut down entire cities, find thousands of beds and respiratory machines. How many nations around the world are ready to admit that many people to hospitals?

On the bright side, at least mortgage rates will be lower when poor/novice real estate speculators close on their newly built condo units in the GTA over the next few months, now that there are no foreigners with suitcases full of money coming to rescue them since the rich foreign investors are too busy worrying about saving themselves and their family from COVID-19.

Speaking of foreign investment, where did they go?

Canada‘s economic growth slowed to an annualized rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, the worst performance in almost four years.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6608255/canada-gdp-fourth-quarter-2019/

#89 the Jaguar on 03.03.20 at 12:11 am

“Allow me to add the growing number of people that are really ‘pooched”. Mr. Turner says it all the time and still people don’t listen. DEBT…..no savings. Vancouver is a looming disaster….add the black swan of Covid 19 stupidity – Lord, get me out of here.” #74 Bill Grable on 03.02.20 at 9:32 pm………………………..

This is troubling given the post is from a very sensible person. Come to Alberta Mr. Grable. We will welcome you with open arms. You can winter in Puerto Vallarta if need be……..

#90 the Jaguar on 03.03.20 at 12:18 am

Hate it when I post twice, but Elvis made me do it.
“Elvis has a condo in Kelowna. Lives there sometimes. Lots of people in a small valley. Traffic. Lots of old slow drivers. Beaches are mostly rocky. Water is cold. Goose poop everwhere. Can’t shoot the bastards either. Protected. Needles laying around. Quite a few homeless. Panhandlers. Homeless camp in the North end of town in your “cultural district”. Not much lake or mountain view in the summer fire season when the smoke moves in. Air quality alerts. Medications. Had to leave town the past two summers cuz of it. Try golfing in 33 degree heat. Lots of overcast cloud in the winter. Not much sun. Not much of an economy either. Tourism, agriculture, hospitality, retail. OK if u are on a pension and have money, not so good if u are starting out. Housing is not a bargain relative to wages and salaries. Lots of kids move away to find jobs unless the parents can stake them. No night life to speak of. Place is getting more crowded and congested every year. Most locals dread tourist season. Been here 27 years. Your mileage may vary.”

Jaguar once overheard two peeps discussing the good and bad of life in the Okanagan and smiled when one person said to the other ” Oh yeah, my buddy lives in Kelowna and loves it, but he winters in Alberta”. Those grey skies come in mid October and don’t leave until mid April. If you are accustomed to sun on your face it becomes intolerable.

#91 Calgary on 03.03.20 at 12:54 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0286HfhLxvM

#92 Bob on 03.03.20 at 1:54 am

#75 TY. OK, NRG has been grossly undervalued and oversold for several years under the boot heel of Global Marxists and Climate Crazies in positions at UN , Government and Banks. Their influence has been negative, we know. So what makes you ring the bell today? Unless there has been a simultaneous calamity involving the Climate Cabal I don’t see an abrupt change this year or next. Plays like SU and XOM are great dividend payers for holding. My take you ask? It will be the collapse of expansion that spooks the green goobers sending the demand economy into an inevitable toilet. Only by realizing that sleeping in tents is not a permanent solution will energy plays be appreciated.

#93 Stan Brooks on 03.03.20 at 2:17 am

A few days ago there were ‘cool’ guys laughing at hoarders of toilet paper.

Now the health minister is advising it.


https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/coronavirus-fears-prompt-empty-shelves-as-canadians-follow-health-ministers-advice-to-stock-up/ar-BB10EuOl?li=AAggNb9

In the days since Canada’s health minister encouraged people to stockpile supplies in case of a coronavirus outbreak, photos have emerged of empty shelves at stores across the country.

But the virus will provide ‘nice excuse’ to the grossly incompetent at BoC to further cut rates. Loonie drops like a stone. With it comes further inflation.

Enjoy folks. And keep building that golden investment nesting egg, I am sure the rulers will find good use for it for their benefits.

Cheers,

#94 A look in the mirror on 03.03.20 at 5:13 am

BANNED

#95 Piet on 03.03.20 at 5:31 am

@#72 akashic record

I like very much his works. Both about physics and metaphysics.

Like this: METAPHYSICS: Most important question answered

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYOHpiGlpgE

What happens when we die? What happens to our soul?

——————————–

Thanks for the link. Hadn’t heard of Ken L. Wheeler before. What he says makes sense. Other than having learned some lessons courtesy of the most recent life experience packet, the soul (radio signal) doesn’t change much, even though the body (radio receiver) ceases to function.

#96 SoggyShorts on 03.03.20 at 5:45 am

76 BlackDog on 03.02.20 at 10:04 pm

BTW, does anyone know if it is possible to mute particular commenters, or must one scroll to avoid reading comments from ‘the lost boys’ and the empathetically challenged groupies who spend their lives in the comment section here?
“*****
Yup, a fairly simple script will do it, I had one once for Flops boring pink stuff and smokies drivel but I don’t recommend it.
If you’re a comment section junkie(which you clearly are) then conversations and replies start to not make any sense and you end up turning the script on and off.

Better to just get some help so that you aren’t so triggered all the time.

#97 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:03 am

#83 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:49 pm

Really? Another flu? The mortality rate appears much higher than that of the flu.

So does the transmissibility, rate of complications, incubation period, infectious period, etc.

There is nothing showing this is just another flu.

The main driver of stock markets in the last decade has been stimulus. I wouldn’t look to the stock market for any reflection of reality.

MF

#98 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 7:08 am

The best piece of advice I got through this blog was a balanced and diversified 60/40 portfolio. 0.5% management fee. Low MER ETFs. Re-balanced by someone smarter than me. I never even flinch during any of these “crashes”.

As for RE, February is gonna show an increase of 46% in GTA sales. Prices up 17% YOY … AND possible mortgage rate cuts coming. Might as well pour all the gas you have on this beast.

#99 Corey Ander on 03.03.20 at 7:24 am

#92 Stan Brooks

Great to see Brooksy back on here!

All of what’s happening now is training wheels. Look at it that way. Slowly boil tha water, foolz…

#100 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:45 am

Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 7

He was on the edge, but this poster has just been relegated to troll status.

17%

46%

Okay bud. I guess in the real estate market you can just say what you want.

Psst: look at the gta luxury market for a clue to see how no one can afford anything, and nothing is moving beyond a certain price point. Expect increases on stupid people trading (overvalued, but cheaper) condos with leverage though. I’ll give you that.

MF

#101 Phylis on 03.03.20 at 7:45 am

ZH is looking for a comment policy writer/moderator. Anyone know an out of work writer with anti-trolling skills?

#102 Tater on 03.03.20 at 7:47 am

#55 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 7:24 pm
MF,

VUS is up 4% today. I agree it might not mean a whole lot, but it does mean something. I’m happier with 4 up than 4 down in any case.

If drops continue, I’ll continue buying.
—————————————————————

You must be loading up on APT then after this near 70% draw down.

#103 Tater on 03.03.20 at 7:50 am

#97 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:03 am
#83 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:49 pm

Really? Another flu? The mortality rate appears much higher than that of the flu.

So does the transmissibility, rate of complications, incubation period, infectious period, etc.

There is nothing showing this is just another flu.

The main driver of stock markets in the last decade has been stimulus. I wouldn’t look to the stock market for any reflection of reality.

MF
————————————————————

Really no point arguing with Sail Away. He’s said he’s only been investing since 2009, so he has no idea what it’s like to not have massive stimulus as a tailwind.

#104 maxx on 03.03.20 at 8:03 am

@ #4

Rates can go to zero, however that simply means far less tax revenue: less from interest on GICs and other fixed income deposits, hence less from retails sales (which also greatly impacts corps) and services, like restaurants, etc. That’s why coffee shops are doing so well because people still want to get out, but spend less. You can go out for coffee 10+ times for the price of a mediocre meal. More people are also increasingly sourcing off of the grid: second-hand shops are packed.

This ain’t a win-win situation. Not by a long shot. The elephant in the room is that the real economy is badly broken.

Take a good long look and most especially, talk to people of all kinds in stores and you get the truth about the waste factor. Store shelves need to make room for the next shipment and the stuff that get dumped is outrageous.

Mr. Market’s wardrobe is frayed around the edges. If it weren’t, stock markets wouldn’t need to slam on the brakes and CBs wouldn’t need to invoke emergency rates nor inject cash.

A truly healthy economy makes room for all stripes of player.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.20 at 8:46 am

@#101 Phylis
“Anyone know an out of work writer with anti-trolling skills?”
+++++

Ahahahahaha,
Zero Hedge beckons…..

#106 Sail Away on 03.03.20 at 9:01 am

#102 Tater on 03.03.20 at 7:47 am

You must be loading up on APT then after this near 70% draw down.

——————————–

Haha- no way. These valuations are crazy. It goes up, it goes down; that’s what a volatile stock does.

#107 Sail Away on 03.03.20 at 9:08 am

#97 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:03 am
#83 Sail Away on 03.02.20 at 10:49 pm

Really? Another flu? The mortality rate appears much higher than that of the flu.

———————–

The bark seems bigger than the bite, with information currently available.

#108 earthbound misfit on 03.03.20 at 9:08 am

The Key to the Comments:

1, Scan for anything draws a host response.
2. Skip anything longer than five lines.

#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 9:34 am

#100 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:45 am
Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 7

He was on the edge, but this poster has just been relegated to troll status.

17%

46%

Okay bud. I guess in the real estate market you can just say what you want.

Psst: look at the gta luxury market for a clue to see how no one can afford anything, and nothing is moving beyond a certain price point. Expect increases on stupid people trading (overvalued, but cheaper) condos with leverage though. I’ll give you that.

MF

———————————————-

What or who am I trolling exactly? Sorry dude, but this is just a once in a while fun-to-post thing for me, I don’t make commenting a career.

Also, I am just reporting facts. You must be allergic to them like the President.

#110 Sail Away on 03.03.20 at 9:36 am

#88 SimplyPut7 on 03.03.20 at 12:05 am

Speaking of foreign investment, where did they go?

——————————

Hmmmmm… just a guess here…. away from this morass of red tape?

Energy Canada (Encana) moving to Dallas was a fairly big flag.

#111 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 9:52 am

#103 Tater on 03.03.20 at 7:50 am

Really no point arguing with Sail Away. He’s said he’s only been investing since 2009, so he has no idea what it’s like to not have massive stimulus as a tailwind.

——————————-

Just lucky, I guess. When life gives you lemonade, don’t turn it into lemons…

#112 bguy1 on 03.03.20 at 10:06 am

50bps…because?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-03/fed-cuts-rates-half-point-in-emergency-move-amid-spreading-virus?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

#113 technical analysis on 03.03.20 at 10:13 am

and the FED panics and cuts rates by 50 bps. sigh. precisely the wrong thing to do at the wrong time. when will these guys ever learn.

#114 MF on 03.03.20 at 10:20 am

#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at

No facts seen for miles.

Hence why I rightfully called you a troll.

I don’t like getting personal on here, but people like you are destroying our economy. Real estate is a disease. It has warped our economy beyond repair and will result in massive pain and suffering down the road.

You pumping it here is like a person sick who just arrived from Wuhan licking door knobs all around and raving about how great they taste.

That was my point.

MF

#115 Dups on 03.03.20 at 10:23 am

Keep selling guys, others need to buy more…

#116 oh bouy on 03.03.20 at 10:33 am

@#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 9:34 am
#100 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:45 am
Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 7

He was on the edge, but this poster has just been relegated to troll status.

17%

46%

Okay bud. I guess in the real estate market you can just say what you want.

Psst: look at the gta luxury market for a clue to see how no one can afford anything, and nothing is moving beyond a certain price point. Expect increases on stupid people trading (overvalued, but cheaper) condos with leverage though. I’ll give you that.

MF

———————————————-

What or who am I trolling exactly? Sorry dude, but this is just a once in a while fun-to-post thing for me, I don’t make commenting a career.

Also, I am just reporting facts. You must be allergic to them like the President.
___________________________________

he’s just sour that he missed the boat.

#117 Doug in London on 03.03.20 at 10:39 am

Stock markets are oversold? At the dirt cheap bargains we’ve seen over the last week you’d think it would be way, way, way, way overbought. Again I ask, is Boxing week 2 months late or 10 months early?

#118 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 10:40 am

#114 MF on 03.03.20 at 10:20 am
#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at

No facts seen for miles.
Hence why I rightfully called you a troll.

I don’t like getting personal on here, but people like you are destroying our economy.

—————————-

MF, self-appointing yourself the arbiter? I like the ‘rightfully’. It shows you truly believe in… well, you.

I enjoy Captain Uppa’s posts. And yours, usually.

Remember the good old days when people were allowed to have different opinions?

#119 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 10:45 am

All I can really do is maintain a sense of fairness, open-mindedness and optimism, and try to be a model of centrist, non-judgemental thinking.

Sigh…

#120 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 10:48 am

114 MF on 03.03.20 at 10:20 am
#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at

No facts seen for miles.

Hence why I rightfully called you a troll.

I don’t like getting personal on here, but people like you are destroying our economy. Real estate is a disease. It has warped our economy beyond repair and will result in massive pain and suffering down the road.

You pumping it here is like a person sick who just arrived from Wuhan licking door knobs all around and raving about how great they taste.

That was my point.

MF
————————————

Wait until Wednesday when TREB releases what I just told you. If you don’t want to believe them, that’s fine.

You can close your eyes and pretend it’s not happening if you want.

And no, I am not a real estate agent. I am a homeowner though. I never went into what is a “disease” or what isn’t. The market is what it is. I don’t control it. I don’t flip and I don’t speculate.

Your anti-real estate diatribe is misplaced on me.

#121 Frank Santos on 03.03.20 at 11:11 am

I kept hearing for at least a year or 18 months a strong recovery in the U.S. economy, strong monthly job reports etc. etc.

So why did the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.50% or half a point, which from 1.75% to 1.25% is a 28.57% cut in the overall interest rate.

Emergency rate cut, this is bull. A strong economy could withstand 6 months to 1 year or low to slow growth, average overall anyway. This is the wrong move. It just pumps up real estate, stock markets and speculation.

They are at least 25% to 35% overvalued with all this money printing, lower interest rates over the last 15 years at least 5.25% Feds fund rate now 1.25%, it is so rigged. It looks more socialist not capitalist.

#122 Ubul on 03.03.20 at 11:13 am

#113 technical analysis on 03.03.20 at 10:13 am
and the FED panics and cuts rates by 50 bps. sigh. precisely the wrong thing to do at the wrong time.

—-

What else can they do? Drop, hold, raise.
Whichever it is, it is always the wrong time for some, always good time for others.
Unless you have the power to influence, it is not different than the weather.

#123 G on 03.03.20 at 11:27 am

Hi #72 akashic record,
Thanks for the link.
I missed seeing that fire side chat.
I was/am focused on another issue presently.

#124 WTF on 03.03.20 at 11:33 am

Mike and the Rat 1,2,3, hilarious!

Thanks to the aggrieved BD. I would have missed chapter 3 if not for your feeble attempt at condescension.

#125 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 11:51 am

#124 WTF on 03.03.20 at 11:33 am

Mike and the Rat 1,2,3, hilarious!
Thanks to the aggrieved BD. I would have missed chapter 3 if not for your feeble attempt at condescension.

————————

Thanks!

Also, Blackdog and I have patched the tiff and are now besties. Planning a lunch date soon.

#126 not 1st on 03.03.20 at 11:55 am

I would say its time to increase your PM holdings. This system is very fragile. Globalization made a lot of people rich while barely helping a lot of others including siphoning off GDP from the west.

But it made the system super fragile. Supply lines 10,000km long across an ocean and behind a communist curtain compared to what used to be made in the nearest big city right here. 97% of antibiotics made in China. Who knows what else.

Like only a twisted individual would design such a fragile system. I bet it was those egghead economics who don’t have a clue outside their window. And now they are looking for a fed bailout.

#127 Rates on 03.03.20 at 12:20 pm

.50 drop today, .50 drop later this month with more to come…going back to zero, hurrayyyyyyyyyy. “Rates will normalize ” Pfffffffft.

Say hello to the real possibility of negative interest rates boys and girls. Aren’t you just elated to be a saver and liquid investor?
Should have bought 30 homes with 5% down am I right?

The Japanization of monetary policy is here to stay.

#128 Scott Porier on 03.03.20 at 12:30 pm

The Canadian dollar will probably test it’s new low back when Chretien, Martin Liberals sent it to 62 cents or $1.612 to buy a U.S. from $1 Canadian dollar.

I would not be surprised of a 55 cents Canadian dollar or $1.82 U.S to buy $1 Canadian dollar. If things get really bad, we could be in U.K. pound territory, $2+ to buy $1 U.S. dollar.

However, the Bank of Canada , Statistics Canada and other misleading sources will say inflation is low 1.5% to 2%, this is such a lie. Inflation is going higher and is already here for years and they don’t care to screw everyone devaluation of our money and no to low interest on our money.

Is there a full moon today? – Garth

#129 MF on 03.03.20 at 12:34 pm

16 oh bouy on 03.03.20 at 1
20 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 10:48
Sail away

-I used to welcome debate on this matter, but we have to face facts.

People who pump real estate have become a threat to our economy. It is actually in our self interest to call them out on their lies. They are dangerous.

Our economy is suffering as a result. Houses and the real estate industry are it’s biggest threat. These are facts.

MF

#130 Cto on 03.03.20 at 12:45 pm

Garth both you and all the dogs in this blog know that negative interest rates are now a certainty. So own up to it.
The question is when will they cut through the zero mark.
What effect will they have on inflated housing and in cities like Toronto and Vancouver where the markets are already burning hot.
We know that a recession is coming maybe not for the next 6 months but likely in a year as the Bull Run has taken too long.
If rates are back to 0.5% before recession takes hold,
Where will they be in the middle of recession????

There will never be negative loan rates in Canada. – Garth

#131 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 12:47 pm

If I was still working (retired), I would have used this Corona virus thing to take time off work.
Just call in and say you aren’t feeling so great and plan to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

#132 doug t on 03.03.20 at 1:02 pm

this monetary system was not created for us regular folk – it was created to keep wealth at the top and throw a few crumbs our way once in awhile to keep us passive

#133 Shawn Allen on 03.03.20 at 1:05 pm

Long Bond Gains

#82 Dale Brennan on 03.02.20 at 10:44 pm said:

Some even said buy long bonds at 4.75% to 5% back in 2008 to 2009 but you did not agree with this.

Many of these bonds, provincial, Canada are now worth $40+ more $100 then versus $140 now.

*********************************
So that would have to be longer than 10 years so maybe 20 or 30 year bonds.

Those who bought at 5% did well although certainly the S&P 500 did even better. Once again balanced has been a good strategy.

Should someone holding a 5% bond with 18 years left hold on or sell to capture the 40% capital gain? Eventually the bond will mature at $100. Holding it now would be locking in a low return (5% coupon but eventual 40% capital loss from here). But over the life of the bond the 5% looks like it is going to have been a good return. Who knew? Not me.

#134 Mattl on 03.03.20 at 1:11 pm

#120 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 10:48 am
114 MF on 03.03.20 at 10:20 am
#109 Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at

No facts seen for miles.

Hence why I rightfully called you a troll.

I don’t like getting personal on here, but people like you are destroying our economy. Real estate is a disease. It has warped our economy beyond repair and will result in massive pain and suffering down the road.

You pumping it here is like a person sick who just arrived from Wuhan licking door knobs all around and raving about how great they taste.

That was my point.

MF
————————————

Wait until Wednesday when TREB releases what I just told you. If you don’t want to believe them, that’s fine.

You can close your eyes and pretend it’s not happening if you want.

And no, I am not a real estate agent. I am a homeowner though. I never went into what is a “disease” or what isn’t. The market is what it is. I don’t control it. I don’t flip and I don’t speculate.

Your anti-real estate diatribe is misplaced on me.

——————————————————

For guys like MF, anyone that owns a home is a debt laden, RE obsessed animal. We are all the reason, in his 40 years on earth, he hasn’t been able to do what 70% of Canadians have done – acquire a home.

Rather then own the benefits of renting – flexibility, more money into investment accounts etc – he obsesses over all the wrong that have been done to him. He is in fact is the one obsessed with RE.

#135 COVFEFE-19 on 03.03.20 at 1:13 pm

“Really no point arguing with Sail Away. He’s said he’s only been investing since 2009, so he has no idea what it’s like to not have massive stimulus as a tailwind.”

You could look at people who’ve been investing for 20-30 years longer than that, and truthfully say they have no idea what it’s like not to have the massive secular tailwinds of falling inflation and bond rates.

#136 COVFEFE-19 on 03.03.20 at 1:18 pm

“Our host’s judgement of what is allowed on his blog demonstrates his wisdom and understanding of free speech.”

Unless you can see what the host is suppressing, how can you know?

Keep it up and you’ll find out. – Garth

#137 MF on 03.03.20 at 1:28 pm

4 Mattl on 03.03.20 at 1:11

I’m 36..not 40 boyo.

And I could do what everyone else has done, and go into debt, then lie to myself that I have “acquired” anything. I’ll post “my” home on Facebook, get some likes, have a quick rush of serotonin, then cry myself to sleep like everyone else too.

70% home ownership doesn’t mean 70% own their home. The warning signs are everywhere. Everyone I know has quit their jobs to become realtors. It’s all everyone talks about, it’s all that’s on tv, in newspapers.

I wouldn’t stereotype. All you have to do is look and see the sickness.

MF

#138 Rates on 03.03.20 at 1:38 pm

There will never be negative loan rates in Canada. – Garth

—————————————

Yup 0 to 1% is awesome. Plenty of room to maneuver if and when the unthinkable takes place.

#139 It’s the Flu on 03.03.20 at 1:46 pm

The CDC will be declaring a pandemic soon. Maybe a few days to a week. I think I will start buying after that works it’s way through the masses. Most have already burned all the hair off their heads but there will be a big leg down in the market when the announcement is made.

#140 QuietObserver on 03.03.20 at 1:47 pm

The comments section ruins this blog. Too many comments written by a few self-absorbed individuals who get off on having a laugh at others’ expense.

Why should ALL readers be forced to to wade through the overwhelming volume of toxic BS — written mostly by a FEW — to dig out the occasional nugget of old?

#141 conan on 03.03.20 at 2:00 pm

England has announced their Corona plans. They think one out of 5 workers will be sick with the virus at its peak.

That means Mr Market still has some work to do. The US taking a full half point off their rate and the market still falls 700…….yikes.

Makes me think the incubation is much longer and its already here…Canada US Britain , Germany…..everywhere.

#142 JB on 03.03.20 at 2:02 pm

#100 MF on 03.03.20 at 7:45 am

Captain Uppa on 03.03.20 at 7

He was on the edge, but this poster has just been relegated to troll status.

17%

46%

Okay bud. I guess in the real estate market you can just say what you want.

Psst: look at the gta luxury market for a clue to see how no one can afford anything, and nothing is moving beyond a certain price point. Expect increases on stupid people trading (overvalued, but cheaper) condos with leverage though. I’ll give you that.

MF
……………………………………………………………..
Any purchaser of a CONDO meets that criteria as per above. (stupid people)………..ha

#143 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 2:05 pm

#131 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 12:47 pm

If I was still working (retired), I would have used this Corona virus thing to take time off work.
Just call in and say you aren’t feeling so great and plan to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

—————————

Of course you would. Didn’t you also sue your employer for severance? Bad employee.

#144 JB on 03.03.20 at 2:08 pm

#136 COVFEFE-19 on 03.03.20 at 1:18 pm

“Our host’s judgement of what is allowed on his blog demonstrates his wisdom and understanding of free speech.”

Unless you can see what the host is suppressing, how can you know?

Keep it up and you’ll find out. – Garth
…………………………………………………………………..
Somebody has to be the voice of common sense, civility and normality! There is a lot of fake crap out there that is immoral sick and twisted but falls under the category of free speech.

Quite frankly I wouldn’t want that job as the gatekeeper.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/opinion/sunday/free-speech-social-media-violence.html

#145 JonBoy on 03.03.20 at 2:23 pm

#126 not 1st

I would say its time to increase your PM holdings. This system is very fragile. Globalization made a lot of people rich while barely helping a lot of others including siphoning off GDP from the west.

But it made the system super fragile. Supply lines 10,000km long across an ocean and behind a communist curtain compared to what used to be made in the nearest big city right here. 97% of antibiotics made in China. Who knows what else.

Like only a twisted individual would design such a fragile system. I bet it was those egghead economics who don’t have a clue outside their window. And now they are looking for a fed bailout.

—————

Ever read the book “Anti-Fragile”? It’s an interesting read and addresses the idea of systems and structures (biological, economical, etc) that are strengthened (or weakened) by disaster/tearing/breaking.

#146 JB on 03.03.20 at 2:27 pm

We lost 3000 points and over $6Trillion dollars in investment in the last week. Does this mean the end is near for this roaring market ride? I’m holding on for dear life but I have a bad felling about this. Now chanting the mantra from the leader………Stay invested, stay invested, stay invested. See I feel better already :(

BTW Where the hell is Smoking Dude lately with his bizarre rueful words of cynical wisdom. Did he evacuate the planet due to Corona Virus and return to his home world?

#147 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 03.03.20 at 2:34 pm

“People are not concerned about coronavirus, people are not concerned about recession,” John Pasalis, president of Toronto property brokerage Realosophy Realty, said Monday by phone. “The only things they’re worried about is buying a home — and if they don’t buy now they might spend more in the future.”

#148 jess on 03.03.20 at 2:46 pm

“The University of Houston will waive tuition for students with family incomes at or below $65,000, in an effort to keep college accessible.
The announcement comes weeks after the University of Southern California made a similar move.USC is waiving tuition for students whose families make less than $80,000
CNN Furthermore, owning a home will no longer be considered when determining a student’s financial need, the school said in the announcement. Transfer students, for example, are not eligible
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/us/university-of-southern-california-tuition-low-income-trnd/index.html
2018 -cover the full tuition, currently $55,018 per year.
New York University’s School of Medicine announced on Thursday that it would cover tuition for all its current and future students. “This decision recognizes a moral imperative that must be addressed, as institutions place an increasing debt burden on young people who aspire to become physicians,” the dean of the school said.Credit…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-wiping-out-15-trillion-in-student-debt-would-boost-the-economy-2019-09-09

#149 Dups on 03.03.20 at 2:55 pm

Market shows red, count me in please….and the buying continues!

#150 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 3:01 pm

#143 Sail away on 03.03.20 at 2:05 pm
#131 Penny Henny on 03.03.20 at 12:47 pm

If I was still working (retired), I would have used this Corona virus thing to take time off work.
Just call in and say you aren’t feeling so great and plan to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

—————————

Of course you would. Didn’t you also sue your employer for severance? Bad employee.

//////////

Bad employee? Ok, I’ll own that.
Awful boss made me that way.

#151 Doug Sanchez on 03.03.20 at 3:16 pm

What does this mean? A 5 year GIC, RRSP, RRIF, TFSA minimum $5,000 3.30% rate. They must be very desperate when most others credit unions, banks are paying tops 2.9% to 3.0%.

They really must be short of deposits. Another possibility my uncle had a very bad experience there with many errors with the paperwork and transfer in of RRSP’s, 3 months and he had to check with them many times complaining, lost 3 months interest $3,000 total. He was pissed.

#152 Mattl on 03.03.20 at 3:17 pm

#137 MF on 03.03.20 at 1:28 pm
4 Mattl on 03.03.20 at 1:11

I’m 36..not 40 boyo.

And I could do what everyone else has done, and go into debt, then lie to myself that I have “acquired” anything. I’ll post “my” home on Facebook, get some likes, have a quick rush of serotonin, then cry myself to sleep like everyone else too.

70% home ownership doesn’t mean 70% own their home. The warning signs are everywhere. Everyone I know has quit their jobs to become realtors. It’s all everyone talks about, it’s all that’s on tv, in newspapers.

I wouldn’t stereotype. All you have to do is look and see the sickness.

MF

————————————————–

Who is crying themselves to sleep over a RE purchase made in the past few decades? Money has been dirt cheap, houses in most places have appreciated quite well, and hold for it…..we all need a place to live. The idea that average homeowner is pickled in debt and can’t cope is your own creation.

Did you know that the 1.8T in mortage debt is backed by 6.5T in equity? And that 40% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage?

Real Estate is YOUR obsession. For most Canadians, it’s just a home.

That’s not to say some percentage of folks aren’t in way over their heads. Or that speculation is not an issue – although these speccers have typically done very well.

But for every guy making 200K with an 800K mortage, there are ten guys with an 800K house and a 200K mortgage. The numbers don’t lie, the overwhelming majority of homeowners – including literally everyone I know – has done really well by RE.

Fluke? You bet, but you don’t get to project your RE anxiety on the greater population. I’m sorry you missed the boat, but most of us are just fine.

#153 Doug Sanchez on 03.03.20 at 3:18 pm

Forgot to mention the 3.30% 5 year GIC, RRSP, RRIF, TFSA deal, $5,000 minimum new money is from Comtech Fire Credit Union. They are offering this and my uncle had a $3,000 lost interest from his RRSP transfer.

#154 Mattl on 03.03.20 at 3:24 pm

And MF:

ALL of your friends quit their jobs to be Realtors. As in….all of them? You either have a ridiculously small circle of friends – like 3 of them – or you are full of it.

#155 Dmitry on 03.03.20 at 3:48 pm

“Millions will not die. Covid-19 will get a vaccine (probably)”

I too hope that effective vaccine becomes available ASAP. Unfortunately no expert expects it this year.

You said “millions”, which is plural, meaning at least two. So the claim is that less than 2 million will die from this disease. That is 0.026% of world population. If you look at mortality estimates and infection spread estimates and add to it overrun hospitals then 0.026% is very easy to breach before the end of the year.

You are still in denial Garth. But you’ll come around soon enough. Just one thing should be enough to convince you, if you care to look- if you plot officially confirmed infection cases outside of China on log scale, you get straight line from Jan 27th (64 cases) through March 2nd (10283 cases). That is 6 weeks of exponential growth- the trend is holding so far. At 2.33x per week. And those are just officially confirmed cases based on limited testing done.

To get to 2 million fatal cases with let’s say 0.5% CFR (that’s a conservative estimate- towards the low end) you need 400 million infected. That number is 13 weeks away should the current trend hold. And that is without taking China into account. So unless this thing has seasonality and summer temperatures dramatically slow the spread, in absence of serious containment efforts worldwide we are looking at “millions” by early June.

Assuming lower CFR would not make much difference to these calculations in face of exponential infection growth. Dropping CFR estimate by half would only buy less than a week before fatalities reach the same 2 million threshold.

What could really turn this around is availability of a quick and cheap test that can be administered within minutes. Or actual cure, which is not likely to be found quickly for a viral disease. Or vaccine, which is not happening soon enough. Or following China’s lead in strict isolation and social distancing. Which option did you place your hopes on when you declared that “millions will not die”?

#156 Dmitry on 03.03.20 at 3:55 pm

Actually I did not count the weeks correctly- Jan 27th till March 2nd is 5 weeks. So the rate of growth is even faster- 2.76x. And reaching 400 million at that rate is less than 11 weeks away, so mid May.

#157 Ubul on 03.03.20 at 4:01 pm

#148 jess on 03.03.20 at 2:46 pm
“The University of Houston will waive tuition for students with family incomes at or below $65,000, in an effort to keep college accessible.
The announcement comes weeks after the University of Southern California made a similar move.USC is waiving tuition for students whose families make less than $80,000
CNN Furthermore, owning a home will no longer be considered when determining a student’s financial need, the school said in the announcement.

Awesome! Did the announcement say who foots the bill?

#158 Ronaldo on 03.03.20 at 4:01 pm

Day traders must be having a great time right now with TSX. -2.3% between low and high right and down .7% for the day but will likely close on the even.

#159 Ronaldo on 03.03.20 at 4:15 pm

Just heard on the radio that HSBC now offering a 3 yr. high ratio mortgage for 1.99%. The race is on.

Great for those parts of the country where real estate has collapsed to 2010 prices and lower such as Alberta.

#160 Tudval on 03.03.20 at 6:23 pm

Actually, the first to panic were the Chinese, and most rational people assumed they know why – it’s the equivalent of technical analysis – we don’t need to know the ins and outs of the medical issues.

Secondly, there will be disruptions of supply- from China, South Korea, Italy and the list is growing. New quarantines are being imposed daily. Regardless of how few people will die. “It’s only old people and those with medical conditions” – that describes a lot of people we love and who, when faced with other seasonal bugs could at least get a vaccine.

When it comes to goods, I didn’t stock on toilet paper, but on my favourite pasta, Tuscan wine, parmesan and the like. These days apparently we can’t rely on trains running and normal border crossing.

And thirdly, there won’t be a V shaped recovery. Or business as usual. At the very least, the world has been alerted to the dangers of being dependent on Asian suppliers. Plus all the security issues, IP theft etc.. that are part of the trade dispute. Some of us always knew this, but the big profiteers were intent to deny it, for as long as they could get away with it. They can’t anymore.

#161 NoName on 03.03.20 at 8:06 pm

Its 22 yrs ago that arrived to Canada with next to nothing, I have to admit didn’t achieve much in terms of material possessions, but for spoken and written english, I nailed it. We can all agree on that one.

I know some of you might say if your english is communicable disise you would be quorentined long time ago, indefinitely.

Imagine that, 22yrs…

#162 Westcdn on 03.04.20 at 5:43 am

My story about a rat. I tried being a longshoreman. A good friend of my father got me on the union board – nepotism was rife. Corruption was huge. I got assigned to offloading a container ship and I saw a big rat scurrying for cover.

I have no love for rodents and decided I would kill it at first opportunity. Finally the last container was lifted; I grabbed a 2×4 and cornered it. That rat was bigger than I expected and stood up and hissed. It looked 2 feet tall. The thing was going to fight – I dropped the 2×4 and walked away.

#163 Sail Away on 03.04.20 at 7:12 am

#162 Westcdn on 03.04.20 at 5:43 am

My story about a rat. I tried being a longshoreman. A good friend of my father got me on the union board – nepotism was rife. Corruption was huge. I got assigned to offloading a container ship and I saw a big rat scurrying for cover.

I have no love for rodents and decided I would kill it at first opportunity. Finally the last container was lifted; I grabbed a 2×4 and cornered it. That rat was bigger than I expected and stood up and hissed. It looked 2 feet tall. The thing was going to fight – I dropped the 2×4 and walked away.

—————————

Gotta admire their grit.

#164 ts on 03.04.20 at 9:19 am

@112 bguy1

50bps…because?

… they have no more tricks up their sleeves and are clueless as to how to handle the situation.

#165 Westcdn on 03.04.20 at 12:08 pm

Yeah, next time I will have my trusty axe – the 2×4 was a club, less than a foot long. I am really good at splitting wood thanks to my father. When he got back from camp, he had a firewood business on the side and I was free labour. He could not sit idle and did see why I should – a 30’s thing.

One thing I remember was how the British Property people would try to cheat you. Pretend money does not have honor.