Facing it

Andy Seliverstoff photo

Ten years ago today, my time as a financial advisor dude began. That was after writing 17 books on money and real estate, spending eight years touring the country giving financial lectures, being a network TV business talking head and losing my mind twice, entering Parliament, where I even ran the federal tax system for a bit. (And was spanked by Stephen Harper.) Along the way I also owned stores, a publishing company, a few restaurants and inns and personally scooped thousands of ice cream cones.

Anyway, it’s been ten years doing this. I started helping people as the GFC was winding down and stock markets had lost 55% of their value. Next came the US debt ceiling crisis in 2011 and another market plunge. Oil prices collapsed in 2015 and the Bank of Canada went into emergency mode. Trump injected huge volatility the next year. Interest rates went to zero, trade wars erupted, Brexit happened, Hong Kong exploded, populism swept Europe, then we got the virus. Meanwhile there was mass migration out of Syria’s war, blizzards of locusts in Africa, climate change events, blood and chaos in Venezuela and the threat of trading nukes with Korea. And Iran.

During this time I did not stray in looking after folks. No individual stocks. No stupid-fee mutual funds. No trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Portfolios that were balanced (safe stuff and growth stuff), diversified (various asset classes, global exposure) and liquid (nothing locked up). The families I help all seem to have the same two goals: preserve my capital over time yet give me a decent rate of return. So be it.

In this decade a lot’s happened in my shop. Now there are four fancy-pants, suspender-snapping, financial hotshots looking after portfolios with about a century of mileage between them. (Doug and Ryan are the big cheeses.) Also two certified financial planners, two full-time traders, half a dozen admin people, plus me and Bandit. We told folks we’d try to get them 6% or 7% a year on average, and so far that’s exactly the case. Plus chop their tax. Set long-term plans. And, naturally, hand out excellent marital, relationship and child-rearing advice.

Turner Investments is now in the top 3% of financial advisory shops in North America. But what makes me happy, most, is that 98% of people I ever helped are still in the family.

Now I mention this meaningless little anniversary not as a commercial for my day job. That’s not what this blog is about. Instead, to remind that the world is endlessly volatile and people are always freaking out about something. The virus is today’s catalyst. It’s different, of course. Unpredictable. Scary. The public health response has been an economy-suppressor, first in China, now in Italy and the same may occur anywhere, including the US. The threat to most of us is not sickness and death – that’s statistically inconsequential – but this thing can erase profits, jobs and GDP.

Neither you nor I know what happens next. But we didn’t in 2008, either. Or 2011. Or 2016. Or with Y2K or Nine Eleven. Lots of days in the past have looked grim.

The odds are a vaccine will be found, the virus relegated to the status of measles (Mr. Market doesn’t worry about that) and pent-up demand will be unleashed, restoring asset values. That could take months. A year, maybe? No idea. But in the meantime all of the lessons this blog has been imparting recently are worth remembering. Never sell into a storm. Do not crystallize losses. Ignore the doomers, preppers, ammo pumpers and media wusses. Don’t look at your RRSP or TFSA every four hours. Have confidence things will eventually normalize, and faith in humanity. And get ready for a lot of things to happen…

This week the Bank of Canada will chop its key interest rate. It will happen again next month. In fact, it’s even possible the slice on Wednesday could be a half-point (that’s a big deal). The prime rate, mortgages, HELOC rates, savings account returns plus GICs will likewise head south. With oil in the dumps, the damage FN protestors have done and now the virus, our guys have no choice. Down she goes.

US rates are also poised for a drop. Look at the Fed’s statement on Friday. The bank’s next rate review meeting isn’t until the third week of March, but it won’t wait. Expect news of a rare unscheduled slash in the next day or two. This won’t solve the virus problem, but it will signal central banks are taking this seriously and do their damnedest to inject stimulus into the economy.

And Trump? He’s morphing fast. A week ago he muttered the virus was a plot against him. This week he’s announced more travel bans, and may reduce tariffs on Chinese goods while launching a tax cut process. With Joe Biden’s reincarnation this weekend, the president will be pulling out all stops to ensure markets restore by November.

US stocks have given up 13% in the last seven sessions. As mentioned here last week, there’s more to come. As stock prices fall, corporate valuations become more reasonable and in line with historic norms. Investors are rapidly pricing in a Chinese wasteland economy in the first few months of the year, a likely recession lasting a few months and zero corporate profits in 2020.

Massive quarantines, scared people, closed schools, travel collapse, stockpiling – all this will push huge amounts of demand into the future. Said one respected analyst in the weekend: “My belief is that this is a correction and not the end of the bull market. We are likely to have an economic shock here in the U.S., but I don’t believe we will get two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Because we won’t get a recession due to the coronavirus, the bull market will continue.”

But, hey, like I said, nobody knows. It’s for this reason that today I’m doing what I did a decade ago. Calmly. Deliberately. Decisively. Stopping as required for tummy rubs and liver treats.

 

169 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 1:52 pm

Keep calm, chive on….?

#2 "One Respected Analyst" on 03.01.20 at 2:08 pm

… seconds fartz’s request that any front line health care worker who recommends colloidal silver, please transition into the fumigation business.

#3 paddy on 03.01.20 at 2:10 pm

i knew i should have waited to renew my mortgage…2.6% is still pretty low…2% would have been awesome though…ce la vie

#4 Diana on 03.01.20 at 2:14 pm

Thank you so much Garth for all you do.. I’ve been following for years and so appreciate all the info and advice. My family is in a stronger financial place because of it :) all the best to you and yours!

#5 KNOW IT ALL on 03.01.20 at 2:17 pm

Congratulations on your entrepreneurial accomplishments.

I hope your right about this virus.

A co-worker asked me on Friday why gold is heading south as well.

My response “Gold might protect you from a fiat currency induced disaster” but there’s nothing the human race can do once an asteroid decides to strike the planet.

#6 Retired Desi on 03.01.20 at 2:26 pm

Thanks for all that you do Garth! It is in times like the present that we understand the importance of having a calm and experienced hand on the tiller. We are so thankful that after years of DIY we moved our retirement nest egg to your investment firm.

#7 FLHTK on 03.01.20 at 2:27 pm

I hope the rate goes down

#8 T PT2 on 03.01.20 at 2:30 pm

Wise post.

Best of luck next week Garth.

#9 uncle dave on 03.01.20 at 2:45 pm

Great post to keep people calm and not reaching for the panic button.

#10 Bob in Hamilton on 03.01.20 at 2:46 pm

Wow, I wish I had been a serial entrepreneur in my life like you…quite impressive.

I lost a ton of money last week…mostly safe stuff too, but no panic on this end just yet. Will have to hang tough for awhile and cut back on expenses if possible.

Good blog today… perspective is key over the line run.

#11 Bob on 03.01.20 at 2:47 pm

“long” run….not line run.

Stupid fingers….

#12 G on 03.01.20 at 2:56 pm

Some may be interested.

REAL MAGNETISM MAGIC!!
Theoria Apophasis 12min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34HlwXiUx9A

caution: If you get one of these powerful magnets to try the experiment, make sure you are careful handling it so you don’t crush a finger!

#13 Central Bank Genius on 03.01.20 at 2:57 pm

Ah yes keep interest rates near zero and 1% for 12 years, QE in the trillions for years and years and what you have left is a handful of beanbags left in the chamber when the S really HTF. And all this is during the longest bull market in history. But hey, they kept warning us that interest rates would “normalize” for about a decade. I guess that counts for something right? You can’t make this stuff up.

Good luck with that central idiots. Criminally negligent and responsible with no consequences since the last financial crisis. They deserve no credit for “saving us” from the financial crisis as they were the problem to begin with. Totally complicit with the last collapse. All they did throw a giant towel around a gangrenous wound that served everyone on Wall Street and Bay Street well indeed. No lessons learned, no price paid by the guilty. Proven by 2% interest rates that were just too much to handle only last year. 2%…think about that for just a few minutes.

All of this proves that Mr, Market has been 1 big phoney gas bag that can’t stand up on his own 2 feet without free money and trillions in money printing. 1 dark swan hobbles along and the whole thing comes unravelled with primes rates at 1.5% or lower across the globe, many in negative territory. That is a prime example of we call a house of cards dear blog dogs. Earnings and economies fully reliant on free money and accommodation.

Savers now screwed more than ever and beanbags in the chamber. We reap what we sow.

#14 Gregor Samsa on 03.01.20 at 3:04 pm

Unbelievable that they will cut rates.

Slashing rates is short sighted economic policy that only helps make the rich richer and the poor poorer. The REAL reason it is done is to force the average sucker to put his money into the casino (I mean stock market) otherwise he will lose his money to the rampant inflation (another by-product of the rate slashing). This keeps the stock market propped up because people are essentially FORCED to purchase equities.

It will let the Canadian economy coast a couple more years on housing bubble fumes, as the real economy hollows out, while making the inevitable collapse that much worse.

#15 Sask to AB on 03.01.20 at 3:06 pm

Just what the doctor ordered, thanks for this post.
Appreciate the sage advice.

#16 Ed McNeil on 03.01.20 at 3:06 pm

Garth, I don’t agree with every thing you say, but I always sense your sincerity. All in all, you are a wise man.

#17 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 3:18 pm

@SailAway #137(yesterday’s post) re: “It’s getting old, Sandra. Let it go.”

Too funny. And so predictable.

In case you hadn’t noticed, I never wrote a single comment in yesterday’s post until AFTER you addressed TWO comments specifically to me.

It was obvious that you were still stewing over my criticism of your comments from prior days. Holding on, as it were.

After I responded — to your telling me how many times you loved yourself so far yesterday and your pleas that I not hate you — you then tell me it’s getting old and suggest I let it go.

Hint: if you want to let something go, you don’t keep bringing it up.

Narcissistic projection, perhaps?

#18 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 3:29 pm

One would think the opioid crisis is taking more lives than a virus when contracted most survive.

It seems the heard mentality rating is somewhere in a ten year olds mindset while they run for the exits.

This never gets old and usually proves to be most amusing.

#19 nosferatu on 03.01.20 at 3:36 pm

Could someone advise – where does one get information on ETFs. i mean the way TD gives me Analyst ratings on stocks or the way sites like Seeking Alpha analyse stock and some ETFs. I hold a few like like EHI, GAB, PGX – but thats just based on friends recos. Nowhere am i able to find a cogent analysis on these. I feel safer putting a huge chunk of money into BUD (because i can get info on it) v/s one of these ETFs. Any ideas anyone?
Thank you.

Garth – love this blog. thanks for doing this.

#20 Cow Man on 03.01.20 at 3:43 pm

Sir Garth:

Your mother would certainly be proud. As she was when you won your first nomination to run for the PCs.

#21 nosferatu on 03.01.20 at 3:43 pm

….actually let me be a bit clearer. What I mean is that because an ETF is a basket of a gazillion different scrips, its much harder to figure out the risk-reward of the ETF. Unlike a stock. So sure there are ETFs like GAB that give ridiculous %s but what are the odds I get wiped? i don’t know and my broker platform wont tell me.

Garth’s advice is great and makes complete sense – but i struggle with how to assess specific ETFs so I know which to get and which to skip.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 3:49 pm

@#17 Delicious Dog
Your fascination (obsession?) with all things Sail Away is a bit….. weird?

A song….. just for you….. to help to get through the hours and days when Sail Away wont be there to occupy your every waking hour.

Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEO6gYCFbr0

#23 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 3:57 pm

Yes, Blackdog, I am a narcissisist, although frequently veer into psychopathy as well since my amygdala is severely compromised. My narcissistic supply is obtained through posting on financial blogs.

Good work. You got me.

#24 DON on 03.01.20 at 3:57 pm

From what I have been reading, there’s still some doubt that reducing rates from already low level’s will have the intended outcome.

When you are already sick a simple flu can can be a lethal blow. Same goes for the economy. The difference I see in the debt anchor weighing down consumer spending, which went south in Ireland in November, same in Italy and India is still having issues.

Agreed, why let emotions make decisions. Steady hands on the wheel.

Have to wait and see how this plays out. My worry is the potential loss of jobs and consumer issues stamping out a recovery or potentially making things worse.

Yesterday I watched a special on how Europe went from WW1 to WW2. Provided new perspectives on the rise of fascism in lieu of democracy. Learn something new every day.

Trump can now put all the blame on the virus. He is still the guy to beat. How orange is he turning? I thought I had a problem with my colour settings on my tv, everyone else was normal but his face was orange-red in the wrinkles. Is he transforming? Reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Kramer spends too much time the tanning booth, or bathing with butter.

#25 SimplyPut7 on 03.01.20 at 4:03 pm

Not quite sure how low or negative interest rates will help employees find money to cover household expenses while their company is closed for several weeks because of an outbreak in their town. Nor will it encourage businesses to pay their employees for the days/weeks they were not in the office or factory.

The central banks sound like they are looking for that excuse to have a negative interest rate policy and start buying stocks like Japan.

#26 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 4:09 pm

No, this time it’s definitely the end. Armageddon. Apocalypse. End Times.

…yawn…

#27 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 4:12 pm

#19 nosferatu

Vanguard and ishares provide loads of info and products for those starting out. Along with all the studying you know you should do on this subject, well that’s something you learn on your own.

At some point in the future when your portfolio has grown to a point when professional management makes sense at least you can have an intelligent conversation with your advisor.

That’s a win win.

#28 Flop... on 03.01.20 at 4:13 pm

Blackdog, why are you wasting your time?

Don’t bother engaging with that person.

Not too sure when they first started posting, but I first noticed them when they decided to have a cheap laugh at the expense of Boom around the time of his third anniversary of passing.

I showed examples of how Boom was mentoring the next generation through life and they proceeded to dig a deeper hole and double, triple and quadruple down on the original joke.

I made a mistake of writing back a few times, lesson learned.

I just gave up after realizing they weren’t interested in reasoning.

Stick them on the “Do not respond to” list and move on.

Besides honouring Boom each year, the other main reason I dig up some of his old posts, is to remind people on here particularly the older generations, that your words can help someone out, guide them through difficult periods, open minds, and by admitting some mistakes in life and how hindsight might benefit someone else that you are never likely to meet.

Garth, Rhino and Robax are the main contributors on here, but besides patting yourselves on the back at every chance, and sweeping mistakes under the mat, there is a role for commentators to play in helping each other out.

Never too late to change…

M45BC
M64WI

#29 Yukon Elvis on 03.01.20 at 4:22 pm

Here is something I find a little scarier than a virus and a market dip :
Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib, allegedly while fighting in terrorist ranks. In the regional chaos that ensues, only one player stands to gain.
Speculation over what’s to come next has seen #article 5 trending on Twitter in the hours following the attacks, after Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AKP party, indicated to reporters in Ankara that he was looking at requesting formal NATO protection against Damascus and, by proxy, the Russian air force.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/481899-russia-turkey-nato-syria/

#30 not 1st on 03.01.20 at 4:24 pm

I don’t think the next 10 years are going to be like the last 10, or the last 30 or even 70.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/01/coronavirus-could-be-the-end-of-china-as-global-manufacturing-hub/#2f2a061f5298

#31 Granlund Weltsome on 03.01.20 at 4:25 pm

If you need to know anything ask Tommy. Hilfiger it out.

#32 MF on 03.01.20 at 4:34 pm

Lol

Just lol.

So interest rates are kept too low for too long.

Now, there is a real emergency, and we have waaaaay fewer bullets in the chamber to combat it.

Isn’t that what everyone was saying all along?

The result: like someone above me posted, an increase in borrowing by people bilked by the real estate industry, a slight uptick in prices, and then a bigger collapse than what would have happened before.

How could it not be? What more can be done to save the real estate market (and economy) when the recession actually hits? Rates are what? 1.75?

Lol.

MF

#33 Barb on 03.01.20 at 4:37 pm

From the first few paragraphs I thought Doctor Garth was taking his bat and ball and going home! Whew!
Wishing an early (March 14th) Happy Birthday to our good doctor.
To prove I’m not afraid of the scary things I am heading to POTUSland for some retail therapy, despite the punishing exchange rate and the Seattle virus death.

I would shop in Canada, but might have to cross traintracks.

#34 Remembrancer on 03.01.20 at 4:38 pm

#18 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 3:29 pm

The herd comment may have some merit, but comparing risks of CORVID-19 with an opioid OD is a non sequitur as unlike a seemingly random silent infectious agent maybe lurking on the upper deck of a commuter bus, an opioid OD as a consequence of snorting, shooting up, smoking or popping a pill is seen more as an assumed risk.

That’s why the CORVID-19 mortality rate is compared with the more common flu and not flying squirrel suit BASE jumper crashes…

#35 Dave on 03.01.20 at 4:49 pm

Will metro Vancouver see a crazy real estate cycle again?

#36 It’s the flu on 03.01.20 at 4:53 pm

Any interest rate cuts will have a very short term effect.
There will continue to be 4 or 5 negative headlines a day about new cases/deaths and spread for the foreseeable future. Everyone of them will shake some apples out of the tree.
There is a large demographic of people that are completely consumed by this. My wife and I have personally seen many people filling shopping carts in our local grocer as they prepare for the mostly non fatal Mexican beer flu.
2 families have pulled their children out of my kids elementary school “until the Coronavirus is over”. Whatever that means.
This is a in a community in the LM with no known cases.
A good friend and very smart professional I know is sending me pics of the cases of bagged water he is hoarding among other things.
Some people are going completely nucking futz.

#37 Scott on 03.01.20 at 4:58 pm

@Garth the other day you rightly pointed out that the majority of Americans are covered by health care but you omitted that the average family pays about 10 to 12k (excluding employer contributions).

Can’t believe you gave up scooping ice cream for being here! Was Bandit hooked up on a regular basis? Jimmer goes nuts any time he’s within 300 metres of a Dairy Queen. They’re not quite as friendly here in the GTA as they were up north so I have to pay for his cone myself now haha…

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 03.01.20 at 5:01 pm

We never found a vaccine for SARS or MERS, yet nobody;s setting their hair on fire over that.

More people by far will die in car accidents this years than Covid-19 yet we don;t get nightly newscasts panicking that the evil automobile is going to strike you down.

The real peril is that the inevitable virus stimulus measures will eventually set off a real debt crisis, where somebody defaults and the hysterical markets bring down the whole house of cards.

#39 The Central Scrutinizer on 03.01.20 at 5:05 pm

“.. but comparing risks of CORVID-19 …”

Thou shalt not take the names of My magpies, nor My ravens, nor even My crows, in vain. Shouldst thou not repent, then verily, eternal torment in Burnaby shall be thine reward.

#40 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 5:05 pm

#34 Remembrencer

Aids provided more concern than anything I can remember especially when it first appeared. Nasty. Too bad stats ain’t published on the the current flu strain.

People or the herd need something negative to dwell on like death and taxes to fixate on for some unknown reason?

The threat will pass unlike real issues like smoking and alcoholism or drug use generally fatal.

A vaccine will come along for the corona thingy, but oddly enough there is no such cure for stupidity.

Just a thought.

#41 I still remember ... on 03.01.20 at 5:06 pm

seeing all the women in the room swoon when you started speaking at a free meeting in Van. Those were the days …

#42 Grunt on 03.01.20 at 5:14 pm

I think it will pass much like SARS.

Shame about the FCA 1500 in Windsor. Now there’s a sector that’s going to take much longer to recover in Ontario – if it ever does.

#43 Not 1st on 03.01.20 at 5:14 pm

Last time the central planners got their pinkies caught I was able to get 5 yr mortgage for 2.64% and my businesses loans at 3.2%. This time I am going for a 10 yr 3% across the board.

As more older people exit the work force and begin drawing instead of contributing the cost of capital will have to rise. This is probably the last kick at the can for ultra low rates. In 10 yrs time demographic bombs are going to be going off all over the world. Book it.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:19 pm

@#33 Barb
“From the first few paragraphs I thought Doctor Garth was taking his bat and ball and going home! Whew!”
+++++

Yes. I was thinking the same thing.
Eventually he’ll either shut the blog down or….go to the big “dog walk” in the sky….. either way…..
It was good while it lasted…..

#45 Camille on 03.01.20 at 5:19 pm

Congratulations. You have been successful and give sound actionable advice.
I will no doubt struggle through this, remembering the basics, about 10 S&P corrections in past 20 years and 2 bear markets, 2 corrections in 2018. Many months for stabilization and then further gains.
After bank rate reductions what will bonds be? Cash. Reduced mid bonds last Friday and bought ZMI. Will have bigger losses for now. Also reduced long bonds late last year, no more TMF, 50 year duration. Holding pattern in ZAG. So more losses. But was sound action to increase yield. Now losing 4% per average 10% index loss. Would have been easier to live with previous 2% loss, but cannot disinvest.
Garth, what will happen to real estate? Lower rates, but more fear.

#46 conan on 03.01.20 at 5:21 pm

Joe Biden’s reincarnation this weekend-Garth

I feel this redemption and survival from Trump’s false witness, wasting everyone’s time, faux Ukraine corruption crisis, etc is going magnify just how much Trump loses the election in November.
It’s going to be a wipe out.
Plus I want Biden winning for obvious reasons.

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:27 pm

@#33 Yukon Elvis
“Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib”
++++

Old news….. and provided by Russia….you must like computer viruses…..I wont open any links ending with .rt

Turkey has just pounded the Syrian army +tanks, and downed several of their planes.
Lets see if Russia wants to “up” the ante and risk their jets against surface to air missiles…..
Or will they involve Iran against Turkey?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey/turkey-strikes-syrian-planes-and-airports-escalating-idlib-fight-idUSKBN20O1KN

I’m sure the US is providing intel to the Turks.
If not a few missiles as well.

#48 Hawk on 03.01.20 at 5:31 pm

Sleepy Joe (Biden) isn’t going to overtake crazy Bernie anytime soon.

The Mensheviks have lost ground to the Bolsheviks; now and there’s no going back, (unless the “super delegates” pull a fast one again).

Other than that, it’s MAGA vs. the Bolsheviks!

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:39 pm

@#41 I remember
“seeing all the women in the room swoon when you started speaking at a free meeting in Van….”
++++

Speaking shirtless and the chiselled abs do it every time.

#50 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 5:41 pm

Hmmmm… APT may continue to rocket tomorrow after the weekend Washington death press conference.

Exuberance is funny- the valuation is so far out of whack right now, yet people keep buying. Sticky situation here. It’s probably time to take profit but I’m reluctant as always to realize and pay cap gains. On the other hand, another chunk of USD might be handy…

In any case, when you are profiting off the unrealistic panic of others, cheer them on. Go! Go! Panic! Go!

#51 Remembrancer on 03.01.20 at 5:41 pm

#39 The Central Scrutinizer on 03.01.20 at 5:05 pm
“.. but comparing risks of CORVID-19 …”

I’ll blame autocorrect or maybe Mike Pence, he’ll be used to it by the time this over…

Anyway, nevermore…

#52 Dave on 03.01.20 at 5:42 pm

In BC will the NDP have the government provide condo insurance?

Otherwise will this turn into a real estate crisis because no one can get a mortgage without insurance.

#53 leebow on 03.01.20 at 5:46 pm

#29 Yukon Elvis

Oh, no. RT. I am in awe how everything lines up. From the virus and to the strike on Turks. Yesterday was too early, tomorrow will be too late. Full speed ahead, comrades.

#54 Not Drinking on 03.01.20 at 5:47 pm

Good on you Garth and congrats to your accomplishments; who the heck knows what is going to happen. No point in selling; riding it out for the long run and see what happens.

#55 T PT2 on 03.01.20 at 6:05 pm

SPXS
9.6% gain as of 4 min ago.

#56 Remembrancer on 03.01.20 at 6:10 pm

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:27 pm

actually the Turks last got supplied missiles from, wait for it, Russia… now let’s see how a Turkish fired S-400 does against a Russian-piloted Su-34 and whether they have off switches in the cockpit…

#57 crazyfox on 03.01.20 at 6:12 pm

It’s a difficult time to be a market cheerleader. We try to be be positive, we know money greases the wheel and keeps everyone working and busy and fed and all that goes with it and we get ahead through investing in the future, everyone’s success is dependent on it, but every now and again something comes along to remind us (besides Greta) that growth is not endless or eternal and we have to respect it. It’s an old saying in the industry, price is truth. It can sometimes be based on hype, emotion, greed, fear, adrenaline and speculation aside from rationality, hard work, earnings, profit, success and sustainability but whatever its built on, its real for what it is, its all still truth. Lets look at the risks to this market more closely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If we look at the world’s top economies for a sec, numbers out of China, its not just me saying it anymore, -6% Q1 GDP out of GS, Pimco, expect a disaster. Japan is -6.3% Q4 GDP thanks to Hagibis and predicting a Q1 GDP somewhere around -2.5 to -3.5% GDP. Ouch! Guaranteed recession. Germany laid an egg in Q4 at zero GDP with .7% GDP annual guidance for 2020. This is likely to go negative now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Cases in Germany grew by 50 to 129 cases today with community transmission. The markets will react to this on Monday (or Europe in general) especially if these number climb, how can it not? We have the world’s 2nd and 3rd largest economy on the skids and now the 4th largest facing the same scenario.

France, 7th largest economy, added 30 new cases and now sits at 130. 3 days ago, they had what, 29? Italy, 8th largest economy, 1694 cases adding 556 today. Social distancing is the new normal there, closed schools and soccer games but mass quarantines… Italy might not go there and let this virus buck. If they do, they could rue the day. The degree this impacts the economy there and beyond negatively in Europe now is anyone’s guess and yes, the markets will have to price it in.

South Korea, 12th largest is a template of what to expect if COVID-19 hits any nation with an organized government facing a 4 figure outbreak. 4th largest city of 2.5 million shut down. Economic paralysis. Are we to think North American markets will be immune to this if it hits here?

U.S, world’s #1 economy just reported its first death and 4th case of community transmission (cases of origin that can’t be traced outside the U.S.). How will the market react if numbers jump into the thousands? How will governments react? It’s people? And what if the virus doesn’t pop off in the U.S., no nation is an economic island in this world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt7FGi_DgmU

Central banks will be sure to cut but lets face it, they’ve already run out of a fair amount of runway. It will help, but it won’t solve things. The herd is growing fearful now. Runs on masks and bleach. Hoarding groceries. Cancelled vacations. Skipping work. Runs on soap and sanitizers. Yes, soap. :) People pulling back spending. But for how long? And, the markets will have to price it in as price is truth!

Never sell into a storm, I’ll leave that for money managers to decide. (not like I have a choice) Outside of bonds which are quickly running out of runway… and certain economic sectors (its not all bad) I say wait. How will the news cycle react to 500+ cases in Germany by next weekend or 200+ in the U.K. or France over 500 or Spain over 200 the U.S. with over 500+ cases or Italy, Iran and South Korea over 10,000 a month from now or the U.S. with 3,500+ a month from now. These are numbers out of a hat, guesstimates right, but we are forced to speculate and these numbers if fleshed out will have consequences. Never mind how governments respond to it, how will people respond? Will cash will soon be king? Yes, it’s a rhetorical question of questions only the future knows as time tells all and price is? Truth.

#58 Rita Eastwood on 03.01.20 at 6:20 pm

Garth’s chiseled abs get me every time.

#59 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 6:20 pm

Smart investors are sitting tight.

Contrarians are licking their chops.

#60 Long-Time Lurker on 03.01.20 at 6:22 pm

>If it’s any consolation to you, Garth, I think that economies and markets are going to rebound in the summer or late spring after the flu season ends. Covid-19 is a killer flu but it’s still a flu. You can show this to Ryan. By the way, I called the top about six weeks ago.

Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic

“It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic.”

ELIZABETH PAYNE Updated: February 25, 2020

…Given the global situation, Tam said it will be very difficult to stop the virus from spreading, but slowing it down is Canada’s goal.

Delaying the onset of a broader outbreak in Canada could put it beyond seasonal flu and virus season, which would take pressure off the health system and give officials and individuals more time to prepare.

A delay would also allow health officials to better understand the novel coronavirus and give researchers more time to look for treatments.

“We are trying to push past winter respiratory season. That will help a lot.”….

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic

#61 Treasure Island CEO - 128,345,435.88 on 03.01.20 at 6:33 pm

What happened to it is an election year and the markets going uppa?

Check out my previous posts. I said I was holding balls out in cash for this whole year if I had too (forgoing a 15% loss) in what was inevitable. A big correction.

Chequebook locked and loaded.

Dow future pointing to 500+ drop again tomorrow.

Patience wins. But buying season is upon us soon.

Biggest snap back variables is a vaccine and/or stall in the spread (a stall not happening anytime soon).

If the jobs market gets hit, housing is toast. If jobs hold, housing going to moon with these lower rates.

Chinese PMI off a cliff. This is the big one. It has already happened.

#62 Nonplused on 03.01.20 at 6:45 pm

I proposed a theory last week that it was Bernie’s success in the primaries that was responsible for much of the recent downward pressure, and not just the Corona Virus, although that is obviously a factor but I assume traders have had some time to make their assessments and price that in already.

Well, they say the way to test a theory is to make a prediction and see if it comes true. So my prediction with Biden recently coming back to life is that stock price action tomorrow will be moderate compared to last week. Might even be an up day. He is old and forgetful but other than Bloomberg, who is effectively out of the race now, he’s the closest thing to a moderate the Dems have to run against Trump.

Most of the other candidates are looking like also-rans, so it appears it will come down to Sanders vs. Biden and likely a brokered convention like last time. I predict the super-delegates will pick Biden despite the fact that there will be riots in the streets and it will seriously anger the Bernie bros. They know a socialist candidate will not beat Trump so Biden is looking like the only hope they have. In either case, because both of them are so old, who gets slotted in as VP is probably the most important factor in whether they can beat Trump.

———————-

Looking to November, the Corona Virus looks to be the crises that will either make or break Trump. If the situation gets out of hand, he’ll get much of the blame. If they get it under control, not only will Trump take credit for it but he will also say it is a strong argument for all his other policies like tighter immigration control, his border wall, travel bans, etc. So because of this virus thing I put his odds at 50% of winning not only the presidency but both the house and senate. If he loses the virus battle I predict Biden wins and the Dems hold the house but probably don’t get the senate.

——————

Meanwhile I topped up my 2-4 week quarantine plan by stocking up on an item I had forgotten: Cough medicine. Not in any crazy hording amount, just enough to treat my family for one bout of flu each. Probably need it someday anyway. And Gatorade, but we go through that stuff like water as it is so that definitely won’t go bad. I don’t know if it can go bad.

——————

Meanwhile I have noticed that this virus is playing with my mind. I was recently talking with a neighbor who had just got back from Thailand and the first thought that popped into my mind was “wait, no quarantine?” I realized right away that sort of reaction was totally irrational but then so is buying 6 Costco packs of toilet paper, and plenty of people are doing that. I believe having 2-4 weeks of stuff on hand is prudent here and even the CDC is advising 2 weeks so this is now coming from the US government, but how much toilet paper can you use in 4 weeks?

The problem with hording too much stuff you don’t need is that it creates shortages for others. Buy up to 4 weeks and 4 weeks only. If you need 6 months worth of toilet paper chances are we are all screwed and you’ll starve to death after you’ve eaten the last of it.

Some people reacted badly to the CDC saying “don’t buy masks”. Immediately the cry went out “See! You can’t trust the government!” But I think their rational was quite logical in that you don’t really need one unless you are sick and trying to prevent infecting others but if we run into shortages the doctors and nurses who need them most could be put at risk. But yet they are sold out everywhere. The CDC reacted by making a deal with 3M where they get first call on all production so they can insure the hospitals are well supplied.

I wonder what comes next? A run on nitrile gloves? Bleach? Sanitary hand soap? Lysol? Oh wait, what’s this?

https://www.adweek.com/retail/demand-for-hand-sanitizer-and-disinfecting-wipes-goes-viral-amid-coronavirus-scare/

You should have already had 2-4 weeks of what you need in the case of ice storms, political protests that shut down the trains, power outages due to terrorism,
avoiding family, alien invasions, and now corona virus. It is now approaching too late to stock up on many items but if you get the chance, folks you don’t need 6 Costco bags of toilet paper or a whole case of cough medicine.

#63 Cto on 03.01.20 at 6:46 pm

Negative rates by mid summer…..

#64 Yukon Elvis on 03.01.20 at 6:47 pm

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:27 pm
@#33 Yukon Elvis
“Turkey is calling for NATO’s protection after 33 of its soldiers were killed in an apparent Syrian airstrike in Idlib”
++++

Old news….. and provided by Russia….you must like computer viruses…..I wont open any links ending with .rt

Turkey has just pounded the Syrian army +tanks, and downed several of their planes.
Lets see if Russia wants to “up” the ante and risk their jets against surface to air missiles…..
Or will they involve Iran against Turkey?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey/turkey-strikes-syrian-planes-and-airports-escalating-idlib-fight-idUSKBN20O1KN

I’m sure the US is providing intel to the Turks.
If not a few missiles as well.
…………….

Old news? It happened March 1, 2020. Oh wait, that is today.
If article 5 is invoked and Nato agrees Canada could be at war with Syria/Russia by the end of the week.

#65 CEW9 on 03.01.20 at 6:47 pm

#30 not 1st on 03.01.20 at 4:24 pm

I don’t think the next 10 years are going to be like the last 10, or the last 30 or even 70.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/01/coronavirus-could-be-the-end-of-china-as-global-manufacturing-hub/#2f2a061f5298

In my opinion, this was the aim of the U.S. – China “trade war” that has been going on for the last couple of years. The US finally decided to do something about the rise of a militant China before it was too late. Since the advent of the trade war alone many, many corporations have brought back manufacturing to the US (although with more automation than before to stay competitive).

China is highly fractured, politically, between the industrialized coast and the agrarian interior. Losing competitiveness among the coastal business class that profits hugely from burgeoning capitalism is likely to cause a big schism in the Chinese Politburo. I think the US has been exploiting this.

Coronavirus is icing on the cake for US-China foreign policy objectives.

There are a lot of risks now to basing manufacturing in China, and paired with automation the US is looking more and more appealing.

#66 Nosferatu on 03.01.20 at 6:50 pm

#27 espressobob

Thank you sir. Much appreciated.

#67 akashic record on 03.01.20 at 6:50 pm

#12 G on 03.01.20 at 2:56 pm
Some may be interested.
REAL MAGNETISM MAGIC!!
Theoria Apophasis 12min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34HlwXiUx9A

This guy have been doing real interesting stuff for some time now. He is starving alt-science guy, check out his downloadable book too.

#68 I believe everything on television on 03.01.20 at 7:15 pm

The TV virus consensus is totally at odds with common sense and critical thinking. The source of the virus narrative is the same proven liars. Paid shills still come here and pretend they believe it.

#69 JSK on 03.01.20 at 7:17 pm

All those of you downplaying the impact of the virus – it’s not the disease we have to fear but the public and government response. The remedies, like the interest rate cuts are worse than the disease. Panic, with or without cause will send supply line shocks and since this a non-seasonal Black Friday, there’s no ramp up in production. Speculation is already taking place. Just go to your local craigslist and you’ll see where all those masks went.

This is going to be a fast chain reaction panic followed by a slow recovery. Supply your needs even if you don’t take the virus seriously, just to cope with the price shocks that are to follow, which will be additionally compounded by the lack of exports coming out of Asia under partial quarantines. The following weeks will be very painful, as we’re still on a downward slope. A cascade of overreactions is what will do the most economic damage. Be prepared to wait it out.

#70 Green bear = puts for tendies. on 03.01.20 at 7:21 pm

Quick recap:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped more than 300 points, indicating a loss of 422 points at Monday’s open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively.

Powell in Wall Street Boardroom. Money canons are loaded. Watch for the plunge protection team to come mop up.

The Secretary of State for Health and Social Care for the UK just said “shutting down UK cities ‘may become necessary'”.

Google trends – spot coronavirus infections before they are public

Thank you whom ever suggested LVS stock. Macau Gambling down ~90%

Germany’s Finance Minister discussing the possibility of a Stimulus Package

1500 carrying beer virus in Washington State (follow the house price jumps)

Pope said to have beer virus.

Los Angeles Port sees 25% reduction of China Volume through April

If we only drop 1% each day, most of you put holders will get screwed in IV

SPY Puts all day long.

118% gain on SQQQ calls
Gain

Tendies incoming.

Tendies will rain from the heavens on Monday.

#71 new to margin accounts on 03.01.20 at 7:34 pm

Hope one of you experienced traders can help me. I recently opened a trading account and bought some US stocks during this correction. I have Canadian dollars only and need to convert the funds to US tomorrow to pay for these stocks.

I recall one of the blog dogs mentioning the best way to exchange funds through a margin account without opening a forex nor clicking on the “exchange funds” in the requests tab of the online brokerage. (Exchange Fees are too high)

Can you tell me the exact steps and how to do this. Am using Questrade.

#72 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 7:41 pm

#28 Flop… on 03.01.20 at 4:13 pm

Don’t bother engaging with [Sail Away]

Not too sure when they first started posting, but I first noticed them when they decided to have a cheap laugh at the expense of Boom around the time of his third anniversary of passing.

——————————–

Wrong, Flop: I ridiculed you for standing on a man’s grave to push your own agenda.

Classic bullying tactic of invoking sympathetic guilt.

#73 Charitable financial advisors? on 03.01.20 at 7:44 pm

“Ten years ago today, my time as a financial advisor dude began … it’s been ten years doing this. I started helping people …”

Garth, it is fantastic to hear that there are financial advisors out there, like yourself, who are doing that job as a calling to help people! Many people think that all financial advisors are wolves in sheeps clothes, telling them anything to convince them to invest, but you prove this is a total misconception!!

#74 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 7:59 pm

@#22 CrowdedElevatorFartz re: ” @#17 Delicious Dog
Your fascination (obsession?) with all things Sail Away is a bit….. weird?”

I guess you missed the part — after the debate regarding the morality of leg hold traps and dog eating was long over (and a new blog post well underway) –where your buddy SailAway couldn’t resist writing comments to me despite my not participating in that day’s discussion.

I especially liked this part: “Blackdog there is no reason to hate me, even if I eat dog meat. You heard the term dog eat dog no?
Just love me for who I am, as I did twice today ;)

As a woman, I find it more than a little creepy for some anonymous guy on Garth’s blog to go out of his way to tell me how many times he loved himself that day — with the knowing wink thrown in.

I know you are one of SailAway’s most adoring flying monkeys; perhaps this could explain your confusion as to who was being weird and obsessed.

#75 Yukon Elvis on 03.01.20 at 8:07 pm

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:27 pm

Hey Fartz. True story. I worked at Saskatchewan Wheat Pool in North Van. in the early 70’s as a federal grain inspector. Riding up the elevator with Mo who had rotten guts. He befouled every room he ever sat in. He decided to drop an Old Testament one in the elevator to try and kill me. He was laughing and I was gasping and trying to fan myself when the elevator door opened and standing there was Prince Charles with a bodyguard and a tour guide. We rushed out into the hall as Charles and Co. stepped into the elevator. I looked back as I was stumbling away and Charles had a very pained expression on his face. He didn’t look very Royal to me right then. So I was just wondering, did u ever work at Sas Pool in the 70’s ?

#76 Darryl on 03.01.20 at 8:39 pm

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 3:49 pm
@#17 Delicious Dog
Your fascination (obsession?) with all things Sail Away is a bit….. weird?
A song….. just for you….. to help to get through the hours and days when Sail Away wont be there to occupy your every waking hour.
Enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEO6gYCFbr0
————————————————————
Hey Fartz

Or this one if you prefer it a little harder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5MAg_yWsq8

#77 The WOMBAT on 03.01.20 at 8:41 pm

If interest rates drop, does the commuted value of a DB pension plan buy-out increase?
As you said to me in a email before you opened your business, “How do I want to be treated?” Using that as a measure of business success, I’d say you’ve done well.
Congrats on the 10 years in business. You have been giving financial advice for much more than 10 years. I remember reading your column in the Sun.
Thanks.
M60ON

#78 Sail away on 03.01.20 at 8:42 pm

#74 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 7:59 pm

…SailAway couldn’t resist writing comments to me despite my not participating in that day’s discussion.
I especially liked this part: “Blackdog there is no reason to hate me, even if I eat dog meat. You heard the term dog eat dog no?

Just love me for who I am, as I did twice today ;)

As a woman, I find it more than a little creepy for some anonymous guy on Garth’s blog to go out of his way to tell me how many times he loved himself that day — with the knowing wink thrown in.

————————–

Blackdog, thanks for explaining what you meant when you wrote that under my blog name; I had no idea what it meant.

Even the wink went over my head.

Next time, you should try to be way more sexually explicit to avoid confusion.

Blog slams are similar to jokes: they’re always better when you explain in great detail what was actually meant.

But…. you’re a woman?

#79 ww1 on 03.01.20 at 8:42 pm

#71 new to margin accounts on 03.01.20 at 7:34 pm
I recall one of the blog dogs mentioning the best way to exchange funds through a margin account without opening a forex nor clicking on the “exchange funds” in the requests tab of the online brokerage. (Exchange Fees are too high) Can you tell me the exact steps and how to do this. Am using Questrade.

Google “Norbert’s Gambit”

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 8:51 pm

@#74 Delicious Dog.
“As a woman…you are one of Sail Away’s most adoring flying monkeys……”
+++++

And I thought all this name calling was beneath your gender…..although I kinda liked the irony of the “flying monkey” reference……
Oh whoas me……..I guess i’m not in Kansas anymore.

#81 Remembrancer on 03.01.20 at 8:58 pm

#68 I believe everything on television on 03.01.20 at 7:15 pm
Paid shills still come here and pretend they believe it.
—————————————-
Hypothetically, where would a freelance shill sign up to be paid to come here? Asking for a friend…

#82 Sold Out on 03.01.20 at 9:06 pm

#74 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 7:59 pm

As a woman, I find it more than a little creepy for some anonymous guy on Garth’s blog to go out of his way to tell me how many times he loved himself that day — with the knowing wink thrown in.

I know you are one of SailAway’s most adoring flying monkeys; perhaps this could explain your confusion as to who was being weird and obsessed.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

As a human being, I find the poster in question to be more than a little creepy, and bearing more than a passing resemblance to a sociopath. Even pretending to be a psycho is symptomatic of some deeply disturbed thinking.

Men can’t read psychopathy in other men as accurately as women, and vice versa, in my experience. Hostile elevator dude has made it clear that he wants nothing so much as for bullying of women, gays, minorities, and anyone he deems inferior, to be socially acceptable again, so is the perfect, pathetic fan boi.

Latency?

Hey Sail Away, if you drop your car keys in the elevator, kick them to the sidewalk. Unless your looking for love in all the wrong places ;)

#83 not 1st on 03.01.20 at 9:06 pm

Negative rates, well that’s something we haven’t seen before.

GS calling a full point rate cut.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-01/negative-u-s-yields-are-in-sight-as-virus-spurs-recession-bets?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business

#84 not 1st on 03.01.20 at 9:18 pm

Does Toronto and GTA realize that the push toward action on climate change will decimate the auto industry in that province. A Tesla has a fraction of the parts of a combustion engine and if they do take off they sure wont be made in Canada. Mexico is a better bet.

And if we adopt them here, our entire electric grid will have to be beefed up and the generation capacity doubled. Who is going to pay for that.

Some people are not thinking when they strike that ballot.

#85 Phylis on 03.01.20 at 9:23 pm

So… a rate cut of 0.5% impact on a 2% coupon, 8 year duration bond gives what? A 4% increase in price? Does this sound correct?

#86 Ivan the Terrible on 03.01.20 at 9:24 pm

You and the Turner Investments team are the best advisors we can have. And the faily blogs are a blessing for learning and entertainment. Thank you Garth.

#87 Phylis on 03.01.20 at 9:34 pm

#70 Green bear = puts for tendies. on 03.01.20 at 7:21 pm Can you please update your calculation, it’s a roller coaster of a ride isn’t it? Maybe provide an hourly update, that’ll fix it.

#88 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 9:47 pm

All right, too much; this arguing is silly. You win.

From now on, instead of Sail Away, I will post under a variety of existing blogdog names to hopefully discuss finance instead of bruised egos.

It’ll be like ‘Where’s Waldo’

#89 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 9:49 pm

@ SailAway,#82 re:

“Blackdog, thanks for explaining what you meant when you wrote that under my blog name; I had no idea what it meant.

Even the wink went over my head.

Next time, you should try to be way more sexually explicit to avoid confusion. ”

Wow. You have serious issues if you have to lie and accuse me of posting your asinine words. Obviously you are really trying hard to dig yourself out of your hole.

Garth knows the truth. He sees the email addresses associated with the alias for all the comments.

#90 Lorne on 03.01.20 at 9:56 pm

#52 Dave on 03.01.20 at 5:42 pm
In BC will the NDP have the government provide condo insurance?

Otherwise will this turn into a real estate crisis because no one can get a mortgage without insurance.
…….
But remember the cry of many when talking about ICBC….give us private insurance, it will be so much cheaper! Maybe not.

#91 FerrisWheel on 03.01.20 at 9:56 pm

Central Banks are of no use. This is not a financial crisis. It’s a health crisis.

GLTA!

#92 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.01.20 at 9:58 pm

Just wow… This is get lying overblown… Let’s recap;

Sail Away made a comment about eating dog in some country and then doubled down,

Blackdog lost it and called Sail a monster… About a dozen times.

fartz laughed at how ridiculous everyone was being getting all worked up about it…

Flop tried to calm it down by telling all parties to let it go, not worth the argument..

Blackdog revealed she was a woman and basically me too’d Sail,

and Sold out just basically called Fartz a racist nazi!

I love the comment section! I’m having so much fun!

#93 T on 03.01.20 at 9:58 pm

#79 ww1 on 03.01.20 at 8:42 pm
#71 new to margin accounts on 03.01.20 at 7:34 pm

I recall one of the blog dogs mentioning the best way to exchange funds through a margin account without opening a forex nor clicking on the “exchange funds” in the requests tab of the online brokerage. (Exchange Fees are too high) Can you tell me the exact steps and how to do this. Am using Questrade.

—————————

Google “Norbert’s Gambit”

—————————

Norbert’s Gambit needs a couple of days each side to settle, and in some places, a call to the institution to journal between the interlisted stocks.

It sounds like from MaryEn, that TransferWise takes 2-3 days.

If you need the money tomorrow, as you mentioned, you might need to take the exchange hit.

It’s usually best to preplan cash exchanges if you want to save exchange fees.

#94 Jimmy's Gambit on 03.01.20 at 10:10 pm

#71 new to margin accounts on 03.01.20 at 7:34 pm

Hope one of you experienced traders can help me. I recently opened a trading account and bought some US stocks during this correction. I have Canadian dollars only and need to convert the funds to US tomorrow to pay for these stocks. ”

Go to interactive brokers. You can trade forex itself and also generate virtual forex positions, including based on stock trades.

#95 Blackdog on 03.01.20 at 10:30 pm

@Flop, your advice to not waste my time engaging posters like SailAway is wise.

Also I feel guilty for contributing to the distraction from this most informative blog.

Sorry Garth. My bad for participating. In future, I’ll try harder to ignore the personality disordered who comment here.

#96 Sail away on 03.01.20 at 10:40 pm

Mike and the Rat Part 2: Capture

The manure pile was beside the barn below the open door with the conveyor trough cleaners. The composting manure gave off continuous heat and rats loved to dig burrows along the perimeter of the pile. Each fall during the manure relocation, Mike’s family’s three dogs and our 2 would stake out the battlefield to grab the rats as their home was demolished.

So we knew the rats were there. How could we catch one alive?

Over the next few days, we tried all our tricks: The water bucket with baited spinning can on a string, rat traps with one spring removed and bells attached, food outside the burrow with noose and the end held in our sweaty little hands. Nothing worked.

Then Mike’s uncle, Buddy, stopped by. Buddy was a renowned hunter, trapper, and incorrigible poacher. Buddy always got the biggest buck.

Buddy listened to our tale of woe, nodded, and told us to get the smelt net. When we came back with it, he had a water hose hooked up to the pond pump and was standing by the manure pile with a shovel. We filled several of the burrows, set up the net at the most used one, Buddy cranked up the pump and blasted it into the holes. In about a minute, rats started squirting out and four of them ran into our net one after another.

We had our rat. Mike had his new pet.

#97 kommykim on 03.01.20 at 11:03 pm

RE:#19 nosferatu on 03.01.20 at 3:36 pm
Could someone advise – where does one get information on ETFs?

========================================

From the ETF provider. There should be info on past performance, dividends, etc as well as the stocks/bonds that make up the ETF itself. Unless the ETF is some sort of a weird derivative or is leveraged, you can get a good idea of the risk just by looking at the underlying assets that it holds.

#98 Attrition on 03.01.20 at 11:05 pm

#72 Sail Away on 03.01.20 at 7:41 pm

#28 Flop…
Not too sure when they first started posting, but I first noticed them when they decided to have a cheap laugh at the expense of Boom around the time of his third anniversary of passing.

——————————–

Wrong, Flop: I ridiculed you for standing on a man’s grave to push your own agenda.

That right there is some darn good truth telling.

I remember that limp, flaccid little exchange, and Sail is on the money. Flop, you get all sanctimonious and misty eyed and seem to expect all to agree because you emote. That’s usually the sign of a man raised by his mother–a man who thinks emoting wins logical arguments.

Flop friggen nailed it.

#99 Piano_Man87 on 03.01.20 at 11:07 pm

“With Joe Biden’s reincarnation this weekend”

Ah yes. Only took him 32 years and 3 Presidential races to win 1 primary.

#100 Attrition on 03.01.20 at 11:10 pm

Sorry, shoulda said “SAIL friggen nailed it.”

Flop flopped.

#101 COVFEFE-19 on 03.01.20 at 11:22 pm

“Does Toronto and GTA realize that the push toward action on climate change will decimate the auto industry in that province.”

Two part answer:
1) The Ontario auto industry has already been more than decimated, by thickened borders after 9/11, by migration of much of the US industry away from adjacent Michigan and Ohio towards lower cost union unfriendly states such as the Carolinas and Alabama, by high and variable exchange rates after oil hit $100, and by getting the scraps of allocated big three production (muscle cars &c) after the North American auto bailout.

2) Has the GTA and the rest of Canada realized this? Dunno. It doesn’t seem like it, but Ontario auto manufacturing has been in the crapper just like Western energy. Underappreciated, I suspect. As Springsteen sang, “…and it ain’t coming back…”

3) OK, 3 parts. Given the above, Ontario doesn’t lose as much going to electric cars. But even if it did, would that make it the wrong choice, given all the externalities?

#102 SoggyShorts on 03.01.20 at 11:23 pm

#71 new to margin accounts on 03.01.20 at 7:34 pm
It’s “norberts gambit” but it takes about 3 business days with questrade.

#103 COVFEFE-19 on 03.01.20 at 11:35 pm

“As a woman, I find it more than a little creepy for some anonymous guy […]”

I find it weird that someone can suddenly out their own sexuality and expect that everything up to the present be interpreted through that new lens. Been reading this blog for donkey’s years, and the only memorable, salient point I can remember about Blackdog was always being miffed about US tax laws. Maybe I missed a post way back when, or a few subtle signs along the way? The boss is always bragging about his washboard abs. If that doesn’t put you off, occasional wankery by a poster ought not. Just my opinion.

#104 Yep cannot forecast on 03.02.20 at 12:00 am

Yes we don’t know what will happen tomorrow
And yes it’s hard to predict the future.
Yes we can look backwards and say see it’s just noise.
And yes there have been many crisis’s in the past and we survived.
I think the virus is real and unknown it catching people off guard as it moves around the world.
Is it noise? Is it a crisis that will pass?
Will it impact economic output? Will it be temporary?
One thing people are forgetting people are panicking and that’s real and that behaviour will dictate what happens next.
Good luck!

#105 COVFEFE-19 on 03.02.20 at 12:04 am

OK, to put it another way…

If you think that the “Laurentian Elites” have been favouring Ontario manufacturing in places like Thunder Bay, Windsor, St. Thomas, London, Oakville, Aurora, Downsview, Oshawa, and Peterborough, all at the expense of energy producers in places like the Hat, Ft. Mac, and Lloydminster, then, well, I’ve got some news for you.

#106 James Nesbitt on 03.02.20 at 12:15 am

Boy, your 10th anniversary as a financial advisor.

Isn’t there a 12-step program for this sort of thing?

Anyhoo, put me down in the “Completely Satisfied” column – so happy (sometimes euphoric) to have my nest egg with you and your super team.

Congrats Garth.

#107 deleted on 03.02.20 at 12:34 am

If Trump’s sp terrible, why do you have to lie about him all the time? Why not tell the truth? Or are you really that out to lunch. Yes, I know you will never publish this. Even the NYT was forced to admit the truth: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/29/us/politics/ap-us-fact-check-week.html

#108 Politico on 03.02.20 at 12:38 am

After careful consideration over some these last 4 years, and watching the hoaxes and MSM edits, I have come to the conclusion that there can only be one explanation for our inability to agree on facts and discuss things rationally: Far too many people are using cocaine, meth, oxycodone, LSD, heroin, acid, and other heavy duty drugs. It is an epidemic and it is killing far more people that Covid-19. And marijuana of course. It’s easy to imagine all kinds of things about Trump and see crazy Bernie as a savior when you are comfortably stoned. Oh and I haven’t even got into all the psychiatric drugs.

This is the new reality folks. Many of the people who vote are comfortably numb when they make their decisions and they don’t just snap out of it when they sober up in the morning and drive to the voting station. I mean, “It seemed so real last night, dude!”

Snap poll, how many of you use some sort of drug right now, prescription or otherwise?

I used to be susceptible to the idea that all drugs should be decriminalized. I think that still might be true, but none should be available without doctor supervision. We just don’t need a bunch of people snorting coke or shooting up and talking nonsense and then voting the next day.

#109 NoName on 03.02.20 at 1:10 am

Best tweet of the weekend !!!

https://twitter.com/ZR1Trader/status/1234345105005404160

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 1:56 am

@#78 Sail Away
“But…. you’re a woman?”
++++

The scary version?
Her name actually is Sandra.
The scarier version?
She actually IS your Mother -in-Law

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 2:04 am

@#82 Sell Out
“Hostile elevator dude…”
++++

I appreciate the fact that you included me in pink T-shirt Day even though you’re a tad late.
You’re slipping….

Has anyone thought of marketing pink masks for anti corona virus bullying day?
Could be a million dollar winner…….

#112 Ronaldo on 03.02.20 at 3:18 am

#13 Central Bank Genius

Savers now screwed more than ever and beanbags in the chamber. We reap what we sow.
——————————————————————
So be an investor and not a saver. Fully invested and staying that way. Beat the banks at their game, buy their stock.

#113 Ronaldo on 03.02.20 at 3:55 am

#18 espressobob on 03.01.20 at 3:29 pm
One would think the opioid crisis is taking more lives than a virus when contracted most survive.

It seems the heard mentality rating is somewhere in a ten year olds mindset while they run for the exits.

This never gets old and usually proves to be most amusing.
—————————————————————–
According to this article, in 2018 there were 67,367 drug overdoses which was 4.1% fewer than the 70,237 in 2017 but of course this is unlike a virus which is not self inflicted but it definately would rank in the crisis category and not something that is going to wipe out humanity. Pretty incredible numbers just the same. As for the virus panic, I think much more is being made of this thing than needs be and the media tend to blow things out of proportion at the best of times. At least now they have something else to talk about 24/7 than Donald Trump. That was getting a bit stale.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db356-h.pdf

#114 Nosferatu on 03.02.20 at 6:58 am

#97 Kommykim

Thank you.

#115 Bob needs help on 03.02.20 at 7:38 am

I buy diversified ETFs regularly but I also keep a large mountain of cash for market panics. I’ve been building that up for over 5 years.
When do I deploy this? I know it’s foolish to think I can call the bottom and time this, but I do feel this is a good opportunity to invest this horde of cash ($100k) after a clear drop. I’m conflicted, because I want to be greedy when others are fearful – some famous person said that once, not sure if they know anything about investing but it sounded good

#116 n1tro on 03.02.20 at 8:07 am

So refreshing to walk up to a customs agent and have her subtly pull up her non N95 rated surgical mask while just moments before, had it half hanging down while serving the passenger before me.

Mild racism, oh how it is nice to be reminded that it will never go away. But it’s alright, the same idiots wearing surgical masks thinking it actually does anything other than letting them smell your own bad breath are the same ones selling off the markets.

More for me to collect. Go Corona virus!

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.02.20 at 8:24 am

#116 n1tro on 03.02.20 at 8:07 am
So refreshing to walk up to a customs agent and have her subtly pull up her non N95 rated surgical mask while just moments before, had it half hanging down while serving the passenger before me.
___

Don’t feel bad, Women do that to me all the time.

#118 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 8:24 am

Whew. Hope that’s over.

The truth is that people do things in life and often they are not sorry for having done them. Like eating dog.

No matter how loud someone else screams, it’s neither going to change the fact, nor the mindset.

Intolerance is intolerance, regardless the justification.

#119 IHCTD9 on 03.02.20 at 8:31 am

“Turner Investments is now in the top 3% of financial advisory shops in North America. But what makes me happy, most, is that 98% of people I ever helped are still in the family.”
___

A solid investing philosophy and getting results has that effect.

Probably a lot of word of mouth business too amirite?

No advertising. But we do accept guys with tractors. – Garth

#120 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 8:33 am

#82 Sold Out on 03.01.20 at 9:06 pm

Hostile elevator dude has made it clear that he wants nothing so much as for bullying of women, gays, minorities, and anyone he deems inferior, to be socially acceptable again, so is the perfect, pathetic fan boi.
Latency?

Hey Sail Away, if you drop your car keys in the elevator, kick them to the sidewalk. Unless your looking for love in all the wrong places ;)

———————————–

Hey Blackdog, see your supporter’s sexual innuendo and knowing wink above?

Is Sold Out my doppelganger? Signs point to yes.

#121 not 1st on 03.02.20 at 8:38 am

#105 COVFEFE-19 on 03.02.20 at 12:04 am
—–

What ever the future of any industry eventually is, I want market forces to decide it, not Trudeau, or any party. And I certainly wouldn’t vote to speed its demise based on some flimsy justifications or backward policy.

If he enacts is UN climate change policy farce and fails to align tax policy with the US, you will see every industry that can, flee to the US. The money is already going. We will meet our emissions targets like nothing after that.

#122 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 8:43 am

#115 Bob needs help on 03.02.20 at 7:38 am

I buy diversified ETFs regularly but I also keep a large mountain of cash for market panics. I’ve been building that up for over 5 years.

When do I deploy this?

——————————

5 years ago when you started hoarding would have been best.

Second best would be today.

The stockpile mindset can be hard to overcome, though. Try deploying 1/3 today.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 8:47 am

geez.
Corona virus stories around the planet, stock market laying an egg, locusts swarming all over Africa soon to reach China……

Where’s a doomsday prophecy from Apocalypto2020 when you expect one?

He’s in the blog penalty box. – Garth

#124 TurnerNation on 03.02.20 at 8:59 am

Sudden and extreme rate cuts huh. With markets near record highs.
Our elite bankers never let a crisis go to waste.

Protestors at PDAC mining covention in Toronto. ..evidently forget where the lithium for their Teslas originates.
Virtue signaling backfire!

#125 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 9:11 am

@Garth, Your amazing blog, which I know has woken up a lot of people (myself included) to the world of investing would be so much better if people like SailAway and CrowdedElevatorFartz were kept under control. They are both very offensive, often abusive commenters who detract from your good work here.

It seems you are pro free-speech (as am I) but online harassing, bullying, promoting leg-hold -traps and the eating of dog-meat, lying and accusing others of writing their abusive comments, etc is not OK in any community – online or not.

And I’m not so sure that simply ignoring the offensive commenters is the solution. They thrive on the power and control that they think they have here. From an article at the verge (linked to below):

“Don’t feed the trolls” also ignores an obvious method for addressing online abuse: skilled moderation and the willingness to kick people off platforms for violating rules about abuse. At one website I used to write for, everyone constantly remarked that we had the most amazing, thoughtful commenters. How did we achieve this? Easy: a one-strike policy. Complete zero tolerance. Did people complain? Of course they did. But it stopped people with bad intentions from being a part of the community, and it kept all the well-meaning people on their best behavior. It wasn’t perfect, but it was good.”

https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/12/17561768/dont-feed-the-trolls-online-harassment-abuse

Noted. I will cuff the boys’ ears more, as required. – Garth

#126 New to margin accounts on 03.02.20 at 9:32 am

THANKS to all the blog dogs for the excellent info on low cost fund conversion!

Thanks for the info on Norbert’s Gambit. Exactly what I was needing!

#127 IHCTD9 on 03.02.20 at 9:38 am

#119 IHCTD9 on 03.02.20 at 8:31 am
“Turner Investments is now in the top 3% of financial advisory shops in North America. But what makes me happy, most, is that 98% of people I ever helped are still in the family.”
___

A solid investing philosophy and getting results has that effect.

Probably a lot of word of mouth business too amirite?

No advertising. But we do accept guys with tractors. – Garth
__

Sweet – just don’t take too many of those. :D

#128 Calgary Rip Off on 03.02.20 at 9:46 am

Cover the implications of WEXIT were it to happen.

There are many idiots in Alberta that think the answer is to eject from Confederation.

What would that equal for: Pensions? Health care? Money system? Trade? Oil bitumen values?

Please cover this so the idiots that voted in the conservatives in Alberta will shut up. It isn’t Trudeaus fault about the natives not negotiating, that is Premier Kenneys, and it isn’t Trudeaus fault that bitumen isn’t competitive against other oil.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 9:55 am

@#125 Blackdog
“At one website I used to write for, everyone constantly remarked that we had the most amazing, thoughtful commenters. How did we achieve this? Easy: a one-strike policy. Complete zero tolerance. Did people complain? Of course they did. But it stopped people with bad intentions from being a part of the community, and it kept all the well-meaning people on their best behavior. It wasn’t perfect, but it was good.””
++++

And you dont write for that blog site anymore…..because it was another boring politically correct blog that died a well deserved death?

Who are YOU to determine when commenters have “bad intentions?
Perhaps we are replying to the inane stupidity spewed forth by the unintelligent……or maybe we just had a bad hair day.
Either way, whining to the moderator when someone calls out your “aggrieved sensibilities ” reminds me of the one kid in the play ground who sucked at sports and had few friends but always brought a shiny new ball for everyone to play with….and when the game got too rough or they realized no one really wanted them to play….they took their ball and stormed home…..

This, apparently, is the 2020 version of that ball game.

#130 n1tro on 03.02.20 at 9:56 am

#125 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 9:11 am
@Garth, Your amazing blog, which I know has woken up a lot of people (myself included) to the world of investing would be so much better if people like SailAway and CrowdedElevatorFartz were kept under control. They are both very offensive, often abusive commenters who detract from your good work here.
———-
The GF comment section isn’t for the easily bruised. Only a handful of people read it let alone post. So how about let it be and not reply to things that offend you? Shutting down “offensive” comments is the exact opposite of “freedom of speech” that you are signalling.

I often ponder if hypocrites know what they are or just blinded by the “feel good”, “it’s the right thing to do” nature of their actions. Guess I have an answer.

#131 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 10:08 am

Good plea, Blackdog. Textbook politics:

1. Pander to authority/electorate
2. Declare personal tolerance
3. Insert but… statement, justifying intolerance
4. Request exclusion
5. Suggest punishment
6. Provide statement/example of personal virtue

#132 not 1st on 03.02.20 at 10:15 am

People emptied Costco shelves over the weekend in LV, LA etc.

Should have bought Costco stock, its up 7% this am.

This virus thing is looking more like a big shake out at least in the market. Wall Street is going to be rewards with a 1% rate cut for their hysteria. Remember Y2K the fake apocalypse.

#133 Lambchop on 03.02.20 at 10:31 am

@ #125 Blackdog

Sad.

Your attempt to censor a blog that is NOT YOURS is pathetic and offensive. Your political correctness hurts my sense of independence.

Grow some thicker skin and don’t engage with people who may or may not be trolling you. Just because you don’t agree with someone’s dietary choices does not mean they should be censored for it.

As far as sexual harassment, clearly you have not experienced the real thing if you think an online wink and knowing smile qualifies.

#134 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 10:51 am

@#133 Lambchop re: “As far as sexual harassment, clearly you have not experienced the real thing if you think an online wink and knowing smile qualifies.”

Did I use the term “sexual harassment” anywhere in my comments recently or in my complaint to Garth?

#135 Doug in London on 03.02.20 at 10:55 am

Some time in the last year there was a post about why you should have bonds or bond funds in your portfolio. Now you know why. When stocks and equity ETFs are on sale, like they are now, you cash in some of those bonds and buy equities.

#136 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 10:56 am

@SailAway, It’s not cool to be an abusive, obnoxious, jerk and then when called on it to accuse others of hijacking your alias and authoring your garbage.

#137 Since2007 on 03.02.20 at 11:07 am

Garth, What’s the minimum portfolio value needed to be accepted as a client at Turner Investments ??

At least a beagle. – Garth

#138 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 11:08 am

#136 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 10:56 am

@SailAway, It’s not cool to be an abusive, obnoxious, jerk and then when called on it to accuse others of hijacking your alias and authoring your garbage.

—————————

It’s ok, Blackdog. I forgive you. Clean slate.

#139 Lambchop on 03.02.20 at 11:09 am

#134 Blackdog

Did I use the term “sexual harassment” anywhere in my comments recently or in my complaint to Garth?

“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””

Apologies if you did not, but it’s the overall impression I’m getting from your posts and level of offendedness.

Point is, some comments are offensive, certainly. Are they bullying? I don’t think so.
Harassing? Only if you allow it.

You have the choice to be a strong woman who can stand up for herself or be a “hurt feelings”little girl who cries to the teacher about how people are being mean.

Own your space. Be a woman.

FYI, I would say he same thing to a man, and if it hurts your feelings, I do not apologize

#140 T pt 2 on 03.02.20 at 11:16 am

For those paying attention, the CDC had a site up posted.

It was a spread sheet that showed how many confirmed cases it has. It showed person to person travel related etc.

It also said TOTAL TESTED. That was a grand total of 454 people as of Feb 26th. FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY FOUR. And they only had the ability to do testing in THREE States.

Well fast forward to day. That portion of total tested, 454 has now VANISHED. They are not reporting how many people have been tested. I took a picture of the actual site so this is not BS/tin foil stuff.

Take that for what you want but its fact.

BTW they are now going back to all the pneumonia deaths in the last 6 months to determine if this caused it.

Finally…you will be happy to know the emergency pandemic response departments was completely eliminated in 2017 thanks to the orange man. And the CDC budget was cut by 65% in 2018.

Facts are important. Those are facts.

#141 the Jaguar on 03.02.20 at 11:20 am

I like the title of today’s blog post, “Facing it”. Interesting article in todays National Post about fossil fuels (reprint from previous article, link below).

https://www.ft.com/content/dddb57ec-4d2d-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

In a stranger than fiction twist the current ‘virus crisis’ and its impact on world wide supply lines provides a glimpse into what a world without oil might actually look and feel like… Suddenly articles like this are appearing where inconvenient truths are being exposed such as increased world demand without end, multiple products derived from oil that would cause everyday consumers of those products to panic if discontinued, etc. It’s finally becoming evident to those who ‘drank the green koolaid’ that renewables are just not ready for prime time. And now Mayor Pete has dropped out of the race for POTUS. 2020 is really shaping up to be one for the ages… Mercy.

#142 SoggyShorts on 03.02.20 at 11:22 am

#125 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 9:11 am
“Blah blah blah”
Noted. I will cuff the boys’ ears more, as required. – Garth
*******
100% disagree with blackdog.
IMO farts & sail away contribute far more than blackdog’s thin skin does.
Even (sometimes especially) the off topic posts are enjoyable, please don’t think more cuffing is required based on this.

#143 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 11:24 am

@Fartz #29

The words you quoted as belonging to me, did not, thus your disparaging comment directed towards me regarding those words was misdirected and nonsensible.

#144 Damifino on 03.02.20 at 11:25 am

#125 Blackdog

You’ll do well to develop a thicker skin here. Garth has been good at deleting (or banning) the worst offenders. Yes, the occasional over-the-top post does get by but is promptly deleted when pointed out. You can’t expect perfect insulation from abusive people on a prolific daily blog written and moderated by one man.

Spend some time learning who not to read. I’ve been here a decade and found it to be an essential skill. BTW, other than his tendency to post too often, old Mr Fartz should be the least of your worries (although I have seen him deleted a few times). Sail away? Simple. Don’t read him. I don’t. You don’t have to either. Want perfect immunity from the mean streets of greater fool? Avoid the comments altogether. Garth strongly recommends it.

#145 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 11:27 am

ooops, regarding Fart’z mistakenly attributing another author’s writing for mine, that would be in his comment #129, not #29.

#146 G on 03.02.20 at 11:52 am

Hi #67 akashic record, re: magnetism explained finally.
Yes interesting stuff he has out. And his “Free” book!
Helps to get a few more neurons firing anyway.
Some just think he’s full of it. But is he??
His presentation style has gotten better or changed over time.
This is one of the first info videos I watched by Ken L. Wheeler that got my attention to look at more of his stuff on YouTube and there is a lot. I eventually started to understand what he was talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hzhikmbEO8&list=PLjz0SgxcrlEbksk1t13CfZt1p6F8wg2ZH&index=56
His free book https://archive.org/details/UncoveringTheMissingSecretsOfMagnetism_201810/mode/2up

#147 Doug t on 03.02.20 at 11:53 am

#125 black dog

One step closer to burning books ?

#148 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 11:53 am

@All (Lambchop comes to mind) who are offended by my quoting some other writer’s thoughts regarding moderation, it is an interesting topic to debate as moderation can itself be a form of abuse depending on the motives and biases of the moderators.

Personally I am somewhat torn as to where I stand on the issue of moderation(it’s not easy to do it well), but one thing I am clear on is that it is important to stand up to bullies!

Society has become more aware of the psychological harm that bullying inflicts, such that the traditional lackadaisical attitude towards it is starting to change.

When we see bullying, it is important for someone to say ‘no, that’s not OK’. Whether we do that by calling it out on a public forum as guests of that forum or whether forum owners step in to implement rules of conduct, is debatable.

What is not debatable is that bullying is not acceptable, nor is suggesting that targets are “thin-skinned” and should just put up with it.

#149 Ronaldo on 03.02.20 at 12:19 pm

#38 A Guy In Vancouver

The real peril is that the inevitable virus stimulus measures will eventually set off a real debt crisis, where somebody defaults and the hysterical markets bring down the whole house of cards.
——————————————————————
Not so sure about that but anyway the real problem I see is the media overblowing this whole thing but it does make for a great opportunity for those of us in the market and taking advantage of the damage they are doing. Fake news. Took a quick trip to Vanc. yesterday to visit my granddaughter for the day. Went down to Granvill Island. Place packed as usual. Lots of Asians. business as usual. I know of people living here on the island that are afraid to go to Vancouver because of all the hysteria. Here’s what Doc Drew has to say about it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/29/dr_drew_pinsky_threat_of_coronavirus_an_overblown_press-created_hysteria.html

#150 Sail away on 03.02.20 at 12:28 pm

Thank you, Blackdog. I appreciate the ownership of bullying behavior. It’s an indication of a thoughtful man.

Move on now?

#151 Flail Away on 03.02.20 at 12:28 pm

Noted. I will cuff the boys’ ears more, as required. – Garth
NAILED IT – BOYS! Okay for games but if you want a thoughtful discussion better to ignore and search out adults. They have more to offer and have lived long enough to know they could not possibly have it all figured out.

A story about dog food…
A Vietnamese guy used to cut my hair. He was one of the original boat people to arrive with his family in the late 70’s. He would tell me stories of his time when he first arrived. They were living in some motel in Hamilton and on their first trip to the grocery store with limited money they came away with tins of dog food not realizing that it was food for dogs. Makes you think how lucky you are to be born here. immigrants/refugees to this country are some of the toughest, most resilient people I know.

Another quick story about rescue dogs… someone I know saw that awful tv commercial (the one with the shivering dogs and Sarah McLachlan weeper – charity porn as Samantha Nutt calls it). They wanted to get involved, not just give money. So, they investigated, found an agency that rescued international dogs and brought them to Canada. The dog they got quickly bonded with this person.. but only this person, not their partner and not their young kids. To everyone else the dog was aggressive and threatening. Most people do not have the knowledge, patience or resources to rehabilitate such dogs. Best to find a local pound dog – a lovable mixed breed mutt always makes the best family dog / companion.

#152 maxx on 03.02.20 at 12:35 pm

@ #14

That is why saving should begin early in life – with the very first job. Or prior if you get cash gifts from the family, etc. By the time you reach retirement age, it likely won’t matter a whit what interest rates are.

The casino stops when it wants to, benefits from cash injections and enjoys interest rate reductions. La-dee-da. We, on the other hand, do not.

Save, save and keep saving ’till you can sail through your entire life without worrying about “Mr. Market” nor the printy-printy-doo-dah band.

#153 Ronaldo on 03.02.20 at 12:35 pm

#75 Yukon Elvis on 03.01.20 at 8:07 pm
#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.20 at 5:27 pm

Hey Fartz. True story. I worked at Saskatchewan Wheat Pool in North Van. in the early 70’s as a federal grain inspector. Riding up the elevator with Mo who had rotten guts. He befouled every room he ever sat in. He decided to drop an Old Testament one in the elevator to try and kill me. He was laughing and I was gasping and trying to fan myself when the elevator door opened and standing there was Prince Charles with a bodyguard and a tour guide. We rushed out into the hall as Charles and Co. stepped into the elevator. I looked back as I was stumbling away and Charles had a very pained expression on his face. He didn’t look very Royal to me right then. So I was just wondering, did u ever work at Sas Pool in the 70’s ?
—————————————————————-
Was that the time when the explosion occured that blew the top off the elevator. Remember that?

#154 Ronaldo on 03.02.20 at 12:40 pm

#75 Yukon Elvis

Here is the link to that incident. Lived not far from there on Lillooet Rd. back then and drove past there many times. Were you working in the area at the time?

http://www.lowerlonsdale.ca/throwback-thursday-grain-elevator-explosion-of-1975/

#155 IHCTD9 on 03.02.20 at 12:52 pm

#125 Blackdog on 03.02.20 at 9:11 am

And I’m not so sure that simply ignoring the offensive commenters is the solution. They thrive on the power and control that they think they have here.
____

Only you give them that control.

When one allows him/herself to get offended, you become a tool. They now have power over you, and you dangle like a marionette dancing at their behest.

As Marcus Aurelius said:

“It’s time you realized that you have something in you more powerful and miraculous than the things that affect you and make you dance like a puppet.”

If you find yourself triggered and upset, then you know you have work to do.

Besides, most of the the time; the worst thing Sail and Fartz are up to is having a little fun.

#156 AACI Home-Dog on 03.02.20 at 2:02 pm

More disturbing around these parts is the new “Kelowna virus”. It gives one the unsatiable urge to stock up on toilet paper @ Costco…

#157 Not So New guy on 03.02.20 at 2:12 pm

Buffett losing his investment halo?

Buffett Lost $90 Billion By Not Following His Own Advice

“Warren Buffett is without question the modern day icon of American investors. He has become a living legend, and the respect he receives is warranted. He has certainly been a remarkable steward of wealth for himself and his clients.

Where we are challenged with regard to his approach, is the way in which he shirks his responsibilities as a leader. To our knowledge, he is not being overtly dishonest but he certainly has a way of rationalizing what appears to be obvious contradictions. Because of his global following and the weight given to each word he utters, the fact that his actions often do not match the spirit of his words is troubling.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffett-lost-90-billion-not-following-his-own-advice

#158 jess on 03.02.20 at 2:19 pm

CORVID-19 is the disease
sarsCov2 is the virus

14% serious 5% deadly
for the serious the treatments + over ten days in hospital+ tests/oxygen etc
=$$$$ outcomes

==============
…”leaves the fate of the law uncertain through the 2020 elections The future of the ACA remains in the courts, but the state attorneys general who brought it there and the president who refused to defend it will have to answer to voters

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2019/fifth-

circuit-sends-affordable-care-act-case-back-to-district-court

Fifth Circuit Sends Affordable Care Act Case Back to the District Court, Prolonging Uncertainty
December 20, 2019
Timothy S. Jost

Background
The lawsuit was filed in 2018 by Texas and 19 other Republican state attorneys general, who were joined soon thereafter by two individuals (Neill Hurley and John Nantz).
The lawsuit is based on three propositions:
1) a majority of the Supreme Court in 2012 asserted that Congress lacked constitutional authority to impose the ACA’s individual mandate as a legal requirement but constitutionally imposed it as a tax;
2) the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act reduced the tax to $0, making the provision no longer constitutional as it is no longer a tax; and
3) without the individual mandate the rest of the ACA is invalid, because the “findings” accompanying the mandate assert that the mandate is “essential to creating effective health insurance markets.” Judge Reed O’Connor of the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas agreed with this argument and in December of 2018 invalidated the entire ACA.

======================

#159 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 2:24 pm

@#155 IHCTD9
“Besides, most of the the time; the worst thing Sail and Fartz are up to is having a little fun.”

++++++

Shhhh, lets just keep calling it “bullying” ….. seems way more politically correct that way….

#160 Not So New guy on 03.02.20 at 2:31 pm

38% of Americans avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak: survey

===========================

We are DOOMED as a species…

#161 jess on 03.02.20 at 2:41 pm

he had the flu and not the SARS-CoV-2,

– he said he was placed in a closed-off room.
Nurses in protective white suits sprayed some kind of disinfectant smoke under the door before entering, Azcue said. Then hospital staff members told him he’d need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus,

Azcue said he asked for a flu test first. Good news is he had the flu the bad news was from from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270.

Although, based on his insurance, Azcue would only be responsible for $1,400 of that bill, but Azcue said he heard from his insurer that he would also have to provide additional documentation: three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.”

Azcue said he earns about $55,000 a year working for a medical device company that does not offer health insurance, but his insurance plan wasn’t always so narrow. Last year, Azcue said he was covered under an Affordable Care Act-compliant plan that cost him about $278 in monthly premiums.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html#storylink=cpy

#162 miketheengineer on 03.02.20 at 3:14 pm

Garth et al:

I know it is not business related but it may save a few lives if this info can get to the medical world. Maybe some doctors who read this forum can use this info.

Seems that IV Vitamin C may help save lives with the virus. Doctor in China is doing it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TC0SO9KDG7U&feature=emb_logo

and

https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/three-intravenous-vitamin-c-research-studies-approved-treating-covid-19-1?utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%20-%20Intravenous%20Vitamin%20C%20%28PtAJ4f%29&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Daily%20Newsletter&_ke=eyJrbF9lbWFpbCI6ICJzYW5kcmEuc3RlcmtlbGZAZ21haWwuY29tIiwgImtsX2NvbXBhbnlfaWQiOiAiSzJ2WEF5In0%3D

Note:

note that liposomal vitamin C has higher absorption rates than injection if digestion is not compromised.

70% vs 80%

Everyone needs to look at Vitamin C seriously…lives may be saved, even important political people!

God Bless you Garth!

#163 Sam on 03.02.20 at 3:25 pm

Hello Garth,
Congratulations to you and your staff !
Thanks for everything.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 3:25 pm

@#75 Yukon Elvis
“I worked at Saskatchewan Wheat Pool in North Van. in the early 70’s as a federal grain inspector.”
+++++

Interesting.
I worked with some guys from Honeywell that were installing/testing dust sensors at the Cascadia Wheat terminal in Vancouver about 10-15 years ago.
Once a year they would have to test the dust sensor/ fan start/stop ventilation systems.
He hated going there because of the rats all over the facility.
HUGE, grain fed, healthy, rats.

So one day he comes to my place of work and says, ” I saw the biggest rat of my life yesterday.”
Seems they accessed one of the grain silos when it was almost totally empty.
Opened the access hatch and crawled into the bottom of the silo. They had a work light on a stand set up outside as well as flashlights on their heads. Suddenly the outside light went dim.
They both turned around to see a huge rat tail as thick as a man’s finger and about 2 feet long going OUT through the hatch they had just crawled in…… O….M….G…..
They said the rat had to be at least 2-3 ft high to block the light…and they had been in there with it…….

Dog sized, grain fed….rats.
Could start a whole new line of cuisine.

#165 JSquared on 03.02.20 at 3:35 pm

Garth – can you go to a “one comment only per day” policy pleeeease? I’m rapidly losing time, patience & brain cells scrolling through the volume of inane contributions your comments section has become lately.

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.20 at 4:09 pm

@#165 J Sq
“Garth – can you go to a “one comment only per day” policy pleeeease? “:
++++

Your scroll button is broken?
Or was my rat cuisine story too irresistible to avoid?

#167 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.02.20 at 6:28 pm

#28 Flop… on 03.01.20 at 4:13 pm sez:

“Blackdog, why are you wasting your time?

Don’t bother engaging with that person.

Not too sure when they first started posting, but I first noticed them when they decided to have a cheap laugh at the expense of Boom around the time of his third anniversary of passing.

I showed examples of how Boom was mentoring the next generation through life and they proceeded to dig a deeper hole and double, triple and quadruple down on the original joke.

I made a mistake of writing back a few times, lesson learned.

I just gave up after realizing they weren’t interested in reasoning.

Stick them on the “Do not respond to” list and move on.

Besides honouring Boom each year, the other main reason I dig up some of his old posts, is to remind people on here particularly the older generations, that your words can help someone out, guide them through difficult periods, open minds, and by admitting some mistakes in life and how hindsight might benefit someone else that you are never likely to meet.

Garth, Rhino and Robax are the main contributors on here, but besides patting yourselves on the back at every chance, and sweeping mistakes under the mat, there is a role for commentators to play in helping each other out.

Never too late to change…

M45BC
M64WI”

———————————————————
Flop, did you take my advice and get your T checked? You really need to do so.

And for Dog’s sake, cut out the soy.

#168 Madcat on 03.02.20 at 11:01 pm

#12… I’m tired so I couldn’t stop watching… I want my 12 minuets back! LOL!!!

#169 T pt 2 on 03.03.20 at 10:14 am

game over.