This story has been told before here. But tough. Listen to it again.
My first market bloodbath was in October, thirty-three years ago. I was the hotshot, know-everything, financial-guru-editor-columnist at a large daily newspaper. In my office was a big metal box which spewed a continuous ribbon of newsprint covered with breaking news headlines, market data and bulletins. This Dow Jones terminal was the candy-ass of technology at the time. It even had a bell. When something awesome was happening, it dinged at me.
So the bell started in the morning and basically continued all day. Markets were free-falling and back then none of today’s trip mechanisms were in place. The selling was relentless and historic. By the time the trading ended Wall Street had shed 22.61%. In one session. That compares with the 3-4% declines this week, and an 11% drop in 1929.
Naturally I assumed life was ending. A new depression was coming. This was unparalleled. It was different this time.
The next day hundreds of thousands of readers were treated to pictures of bread lines, hollow-eyed vagrant children on flatbed trucks and an army of unemployed men. My words matched. They were alarmist, shallow, unhelpful and reeked of inexperience and lack of judgment.
I regret it still.
Needless to say, central banks moved in, flooded the economy with liquidity and markets rebounded. A few days later stocks jumped by more than 10% in a day – the 7th-best gain on record. Within a couple of months, investors had shrugged it all off.
So, when the dot-com bubble burst and tech stocks lost 80% of their value in 1999, I remembered that. It was on my mind during the Y2K panic. Also in the terrible days and market collapse surrounding Nine Eleven. Same with the 2008-9 housing-induced meltdown and financial plunge. Plus the US debt ceiling crisis in 2011. And now.
Through every one of these never-happened-before moments many folks got scared, sold things shedding value, retreated to cash and did so on the advice of panicked, inexperienced, unwise and incorrect voices. They missed the good days that followed, crystallizing losses and robbed themselves of wealth. Today it’s far worse. Social media has removed the professional, sober-second-thought media filter, allowing a torrent of conjecture, fear-mongering and falsehoods to wash over us all.
In every instance of market mayhem in my life, certain things have been true. People who act out of emotion get whacked. Those who ignore the end-of-days gloom around them come out okay. Those who dive in when other flee make out like bandits.
Each time the system has self-corrected. Central banks get activist and adjust rates. Governments unleash capital. Stimulus packages and incentives emerge. Nobody wants a 1930s rerun, and with every crisis, scare, panic and pandemic, new ways are found to prevent one.
I’ve also learned markets are far more extreme than the rest of society. They swing from irrational exuberance to group suicide. The highs are too high. The lows too low. The pendulum always swings back. As one Wall Street smartie said on Friday: “With markets on the brink of correction territory, panic-selling, mis-pricing of high quality equities, and lower entry points, this could turn out to be one of the key buying opportunities in the last 10 years.”
As stated here yesterday, the bottom is unknown but we might be only half way there. A top-to-trough rout of 20% seems quite possible, and history shows us a wave of buying will follow. The world is still growing. US unemployment’s the lowest in 50 years. Great companies abound. Technology is improving life. Central banks will act. The immense disruption caused by this virus so far – and to come – is not erasing demand or corporate revenue, but pushing it into the future.
These things I did not understand clearly three decades ago. Now, yes.
Let’s end with Josh. He’s got a burning question for you:
I’ve been practicing what you preach for a few years now and have passing on the good work of BDL (balance, diversity and liquidity). I found my person and we’re getting married on July 1, 2020. My parents just gave us $10 000 for the wedding. Should I buy up the S&P 500 once it drops 20%. or just leave it in cash until the wedding? Thanks for everything you do.
Did I just hear a bell?
180 comments ↓
A dog has Covid19.
And Bill Gates says that this may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.
Now are you worried Garth?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-may-be-once-in-a-century-pathogen.html
Tempting though it may be to wait for a bottom, nuh-uh.
I just bought $12k worth of ETF’s today. I would have done it yesterday but the TSX was broken and no orders were going through. I was pissed until today, when things had fallen another 4%.
Don’t wait for the bottom. You don’t know when it will be. When things are already 12% cheaper than they were a week ago, that’s called a deal.
No he should not. Whatever the market conditions, you do not invest money you’ll need in four months 100% in equity markets. Same as one should never go all cash today. Rationality is symmetrical.
Question for you Garth: When people say this is a buying opportunity… if you were already all in (as you should be, on average), with what cash are you supposed to use this buying opportunity? Or do you mean this is the time to shift from a 60-40 to a 80-20 portfolio?
Thanks
Someone needs to club Josh.
Maybe Raging Renter? You seem to have unresolved anger and proficiency with a club…
Human trapping is illegal, though, so you’ll need to sneak up. Also dial back the lethality to a good ‘larning’ whack.
Time to start getting some cash together to buy when things have settled down a bit.
Let the good times roll!
That’s a good thing the markets are falling let it collapse and the houses in Vancouver collapse.
The economy and stock market will need a medical solution to the outbreak to recover, the Fed cutting rates will not help.
All that that’s going to do is help balance sheets and give some minor relief to markets. But it’s not going to encourage people to travel, or spend or buy new things. It’s not going to encourage people in China to go back to work.
Earnings growth will at best be zero this year. More likely is that (if this becomes a pandemic) you’ll see a big tumble on corporate earnings that lower interest rates can’t fix.
Thanks Garth. Great post.
Sure Central Bankers can put out stimulus packages, but that acts on the demand side. We may be having a supply side crisis if Chinese factories are shuttered.
The US will bounce back, its just an overreaction by the markets. Nothing to worry about there and definitely a buying opportunity because fundamentals remain strong. US Q4 GDP 2.1%, jobs. Very nice. A vaccine to the virus will be ready in the fall and the summer will cut the spread of the virus drastically in the meantime.
But lets talk Canada because it just went off the proverbial rails and crashed into the ditch as roadkill. It wont be coming back so quickly. Q4 GDP a paltry 0.3%, exports down 5% and this is even before the rail blockades and virus scare. 3.3M people living in poverty including 566K kids. Q1/Q2-2020 is going to be a bloodbath in Canada.
Anyone who honestly believes that Canada can survive without its O&G and resources sector needs to self isolate to the nearest mental ward.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-q4-annualized-growth-slows-to-0-3-as-economic-woes-bite
My first was the dot com bubble. Its actually very good that when you start investing you have very little money to invest. Learning from your own mistakes is (unfortunately) the best thing.
Making those helped me immensely in the 20 following years that I spent full in equities, never leaving for safer heavens. Until last spring with S&P around 2750. With the amount of my investment egg I now didnt feel comfortable waiting for correction to come. Closed my equity positions (left 50-60K portion in equities in RESP account for kids that just didnt bother to change) and went into bond ETF. I know they do not pay now much, but I told my friends that instead of trying to time the next correction I will sit out until then. Two months ago looked like I exited too early, but I am ok with being first on the way out before the firemen arrive. Never looked back.
People completely forgot the risk/return dependency.
Sorry to say but even reading some of the comments just shows how complacent we’ve become.
Look up the narrative: “I feel sorry for the folks that will take this cut when they need to sell to get money for house down payment”.
You’ve got to be kidding me? If your money is waiting to be taken out for down payment why is it in equities??!! I will tell you why, because for too long market didn’t go anywhere but up.
@#1 Post
“And Bill Gates says that this may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.”
++++
When did Bill Gates get his Doctorate in Epidemiology ?
Excellent post Mr. T
If any kids and newbie investors want to bypass the school of hard knocks, commit today’s blog to memory.
This one is so bang on it’s ridiculous.
@Tim, post #2:
Yes, you’re someone who gets it. If you want to know when the bottom of this correction will be, I’ll tell you a year from now. Yes, stocks may go lower, but right now prices are quite cheap which makes yields higher so why not buy some DIRT CHEAP stocks and ETFs right now? After that, patiently wait and if prices go significantly lower (possible but not guaranteed) then scoop up even more. As I’ve said before invest like a governor. If the speed only drops slightly it opens up the throttle on the engine slightly. If the speed drops further, it opens up the throttle even more. It’s so ridiculously simple that even someone like me, who failed a college financial analysis course, can understand it.
Well my dividend income keeps on paying out, total unaffected.
The Dems and MSN are doing their best to tank the markets to decrease Trump’s popularity/polling. They tried with their fake recession talk a few months ago, that fizzled out. This time they appear be succeeding stoking the fear.
Timely advice. Especially for the younger set who haven’t had the experience of market corrections
Guy should not buy with wedding money, focus please.
Pick up on Garth’s note about China recovering. I don’t know when China will recover (now according to person there), but I think this is the important thing which needs to happen.
I need dividends and interest, so cannot sell. And good luck timing this thing. A well diversified portfolio is not tracking stocks 100%, but it may soon (currently tracking about 50% stock losses on 60/40 stock bond mix).
Josh, take the ten g’s and elope. What are you thinking? You have a lifetime to be forgiven. Buy an atv.
My dad has been a great investor. In 2008 when things crashed, I asked him what we was going to do about it. He said “nothing. It will go back up. Always does.” He retreated to the backyard to do some shoveling and probably have a smoke.
Our neighbours on the other hand, cashed in all their mutual funds at the bottom, thinking it was the end of the financial system. They never recovered from it. They lost their retirement savings.
At least Garth was lucky to have learned all this early on in his life, unlike our neighbours who were close to retirement when it occurred. They had terrible luck.
#3 SS in MTL on 02.28.20 at 3:09 pm
Question for you Garth: When people say this is a buying opportunity… if you were already all in (as you should be, on average), with what cash are you supposed to use this buying opportunity? Or do you mean this is the time to shift from a 60-40 to a 80-20 portfolio?
Thanks
————————
I’ll jump in since Garth didn’t:
If you have a 60/40 right now, a 15% equity drop and static fixed income will bring you to around 56/44, which is still within 5% of the 60/40, so no pressing need to do anything.
If this drop brings you out of balance by more than 5%, then rebalance by selling fixed/buying equities.
Be careful. If you have to move, move slow and incrementally.
got a whole pile of cash on sidelines
going to be jumping in soon
also have a pile of US $$$ that I was thinking to transferwise to Canada currency … good thing I held off on that
1 Post on 02.28.20 at 2:58 pm
A dog has Covid19.
And Bill Gates says that this may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.
———————
He’s advised large scale vaccines. Unless he sold them is invested in pharmaceutical cos who make them (GSK, Merck, Pfizer). Not saying he doesn’t do good just some points to keep in mind.
I deployed 1/3 of free cash today into US index. No maple.
I regret it still.. – Garth
It’s ok Garth. The mountains of words I wished I could take back, you actually have some idea. Appropriate social distancing and soap seems to work but some of it still follows us. Your picture says it all. I will put you in my prayers tonight old soldier, may the comforter come. Buying shares cheaper seems to help. The Harlot of Babylon will expose her bottom, she always does, we just need to be watching. ;)
#21 wallflower on 02.28.20 at 3:44 pm
also have a pile of US $$$ that I was thinking to transferwise to Canada currency … good thing I held off on that
————————–
Why would you even think of exchanging USD for CAD when our economy is stalled and US is going gangbusters?
How do one know when the bottom is? Buying the dips consistently allows you not to miss out! Maybe the bottom will be gone after 4pm today? After all it has been a 16% correction. Maybe half way was a 7% two days ago…no one knows. All i know is, when things are one sale keep buying….
When the dot-com bubble burst, it ended the life of the entire company I worked for, both in the UK and in Canada. It was quite depressing.
It’s not all bad.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/coronavirus-has-put-an-impressive-dent-in-chinas-carbon-emissions
This is great buying opportunity.
Rub that tummy and dive in to mouth watering slices of dividend blue chip stocks and growth stocks (BRK.B anybody?)
Or hell just go out and buy an S&P500 ETF.
Year down the line, don’t regret it.
Bill Gates was hoping for something like this to happen for a long time. Take his words with a grain of salt.
The virus sucks, but it also brings a lot of positives.
Two significant developments and key moments for investors will probably be the helicopter money and the start of exponential spread in the US and Europe.
Another thing is the economic effect of this virus. Yeah, the economic activity will go down. But by how much and for how long? What would a cash flow PV model imply?
Anyway, Zeno’s paradox is so 400 BC. Bernoulli’s St Petersburg paradox is more relevant. Come November, it may become the Leningrad paradox. Just double down at the right moment.
Crazyfox, will you send the Harlot of Babylon to my place as well? Prayers unnecessary, thanks.
“A dog has Covid19.”
I guess it’s time to Wok the dog.
#15 Deplorable Dude on 02.28.20 at 3:36 pm
Well my dividend income keeps on paying out, total unaffected.
The Dems and MSN are doing their best to tank the markets to decrease Trump’s popularity/polling. They tried with their fake recession talk a few months ago, that fizzled out. This time they appear be succeeding stoking the fear.
__________________________________________
Sure I bet Bernie Sanders cooked up this cornovirus in his basement. Concerns about tanking of the markets have nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. Get over it. It’s a virus Dude, like the common cold or your average everyday herpes of which I’m sure you’re cognizant of. The coronavirus have sent shock-waves of volatility through markets quite well on their own accord as well as to a lesser extent American politics. Corona is like getting hit with a sledgehammer while the orange guy’s rhetoric is like being bitten by mosquitoes. One hurts and other is just damn annoying and itches like hell.
Just after the turn of the millennium, my brother and I
speculated the screens everyone was watching in the future would say only “PANIC” or “DON’T PANIC”…
WOW!!! More and more thin edges of wedges…
Josh, the advice I would give is predicated on the fact the money is coming from your parents. If you invest and lose. they’ll be mad as hell, sure. But you are their son, they’ll get over it. If the funds were coming from her parents and you invest, and lose, they won’t let you hear the end of it – ever.
What does your intended wife say? Surely she has a say. And if not, why not?
I’d use the wedding funds to buy the dip and elope.
” The world is still growing. US unemployment’s the lowest in 50 years. Great companies abound. ”
With respect, I believe that view reflects what was. Now here is an updated forward looking global economic outlook.
The world was growing until it just slammed in the quarantine barriers erected to contain COVID-19. Supply shocks due to supply-chain issues and demand shrinking from all-time-highs due to government implemented containment measures to restrict movement and public gathering of people like you now begin see in Europe.
The US unemployment being at all time lows means you’ve basically reach “full or peak employment” with little further room for marginal growth – reversion to the mean is likely. The service sector is going to be hit hard for the COVID-19 containment.
Agree with the great companies abound statement but unfortunately they are still priced for perfection with valuations that are not in line with deglobalization and economic contraction. Forward P/E won’t be so rosy when the E falls faster than the P but I do agree that the there will be tremendous volatility with bounces that will rip-your-face-off driven by algo-trading.
As for central banks cutting rates, its akin to bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Let’s end with Josh. He’s got a burning question for you:
I’ve been practicing what you preach for a few years now and have passing on the good work of BDL (balance, diversity and liquidity). I found my person and we’re getting married on July 1, 2020. My parents just gave us $10 000 for the wedding. Should I buy up the S&P 500 once it drops 20%. or just leave it in cash until the wedding? Thanks for everything you do
**************
I would spend the money on a trip or invest it, or do both. Spending ten grand minimum entertaining people for a couple of hours is fun but somewhat regretful looking back.
Licking my chops here, watching the dividend paying TSX 60 blue chippers. Gonna jump in with both feet probably before mid next week. There are some real bargoons out there already.
got a whole pile of cash on sidelines…..
OMG Cannuckistan rich place, yes?
#6 G man on 02.28.20 at 3:17 pm
That’s a good thing the markets are falling let it collapse and the houses in Vancouver collapse.
^^^^^^^^^^^
And yet, rutting season, FOSC, lower interest rates, a lower bar on the stress test will likely still raise house prices this spring on the West Coast.
At least with a single family detached, it comes with its own air supply, unlike a condo with all that shared air in the halls and elevator shafts. Like a vertical Cruise ship.
Therefore, I conclude COVID-19 is good for SFD’s. Good for quarantining the world, from yourself.
#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.20 at 3:33 pm
@#1 Post
“And Bill Gates says that this may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.”
++++
When did Bill Gates get his Doctorate in Epidemiology ?
———
Better question. When did everyone here in the peanut gallery get theirs?
A question if anyone cares to help:
I’m eyeing SPXL and TNA ETFs with a limit order on SPXL on the assumption that it has room to sink further.
Since I have no prior experience with triple-leveraged ETFs, is there anything I need to consider that I might be missing?
Also, any equivalent of these two on TSX for my cash in CAD? I’m unable to find any.
Thanks in advance.
#28 crazyfox on 02.28.20 at 3:54 pm
It’s not all bad.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And that’s just it. The Economy has always stood in the way of the Environment. Never the other way around. We will never have the best of both worlds.
So let’s bailout the banks and other companies they like, choose to and stick it to the savers with no or low interest rates and some want them to steal their principal called charging depositors and responsible people of the world, peanuts interest rates and more free money for the financial irresponsible.
It will not work, does not work and things are getting worse and the Dow Jones for 20 years was supposed still can’t reach 30,000 and TSX high is a poor performer with 15,000 back in 2007 now just over 17,000. Many stocks markets are way down below 2007 levels, China, Hong Kong, Japan just to name a few.
This is why I have stopped giving to any charity or anyone else people they have the government to take care of them. Until the government becomes a basket case like Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Cuba, U.S.S.R., many others throughout history.
Corona virus, shmarona virus. This thing is just being hyped to the sky by the same people that brought you Y2K, the Mueller Report, Piltdown Man, Samsquantch, Global Warming and the Shampeachment.
Mills, if you’re scared you’re getting to see behind the curtain of your First Big Lie. Don’t be scared. Learn to spot the lies. Rule number one: Don’t sell into this mess lest ye be known as The BagHolder. Blood in the streets. Time to buy!
And don’t you find it odd that Social Justice profs big plan is to mete out social injustice to people who are just minding their own business and trying to get along with their lives? Maybe the SJW’s should be re-branded as SIP’s, Social Injustice Promoters.
Looks to me like a (maybe not the) bottom was hit this aft. The futures are all up nicely right now. Anyone shorting the market next week is looking to get their backside sand blasted.
great LM real estate crash in the early eighties. Whole lot of pain for some … but for others …
Thanks Garth! It is always go great to hear your wise voice of wisdom.
I enjoy the pictures that you post from Lunenburg Garth. Very serene and tranquil. Thanks for your perspective.
#14 Doug in London
When you state that “right now prices are quite cheap” what do you mean?
Earning growth was slowing down before the virus, PEs are nowhere close to being cheap. You do have cheap money, I grant you that that is chasing equities. But I do not see how you can call equities cheap right now
I’ve got a 65/35 portfolio, and I re-balance once a year. Every March 16th — it’s my son’s birthday, so it’s easy to remember when. Until then, I’ll let it ride. It makes it really easy to decide whether to try to time the market: I don’t.
As for Josh, congratulations on the upcoming wedding! Nobody can tell you what the market is going to do in 4 months; in 10 years, yes (higher than it is now). If you really want to risk that $10,000, go to the casino and put the whole shebang on black. And explain that to your parents.
#32 The other Lebowski on 02.28.20 at 4:18 pm
“A dog has Covid19.”
I guess it’s time to Wok the dog.
——————————
Hahaha…
I had a few meals of dog when deployed in Korea. It’s actually a delicacy, so not readily available. A couple of soldiers from the ROK (Rep of Korea) army and I would go deep into Dongducheon or Tokari and order a special meal of Kaygogi Bak Ban (dog with rice).
Quite delicious. Fatty and tender.
Josh, invest the $10,000 in this smorgasbord of a buying opportunity. Elope.
Each time the system has self-corrected. Central banks get activist and adjust rates. Governments unleash capital. Stimulus packages and incentives emerge.
——————————
I think the problem is, we are in year 10 of Gov’t stimulus. The US gov’t is running 1T deficits in the best of times. Is there going to be any powder left in 5/10/15 years to stimulate the economy?
I’d much prefer we take our poison then look to gov’t to intervene. If gov’t intervention / stimulus in the housing market is a mistake, why is it a no brainer during a market correction? Market was oversold, it’s correcting, whats the big deal?
Rough week in the markets. This is what losing sounds like in baseball:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJ_kOi-lHFI
I prefer Johnny more during these fragile times:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI&list=RD8AHCfZTRGiI&start_radio=1
#43 JDJD on 02.28.20 at 4:41 pm
A question if anyone cares to help:
I’m eyeing SPXL and TNA ETFs with a limit order on SPXL on the assumption that it has room to sink further.
Since I have no prior experience with triple-leveraged ETFs, is there anything I need to consider that I might be missing?
———————-
Well, along with my usual healthy dose of hubris, I took a position in SPXL a few weeks ago with the intention of proving a point to bdwy.
It’s currently down 30% from purchase, while I assume bdwy’s inverse leveraged SP500 is up 30%.
BREAKING NEWS! Election Year: Trump declares Corona virus an international market terrorist…seeks extradition to US.
I love how the commenters here alternate between “great time to buy stonks” and “the economy is going to hell.”
OK, anecdote: Yesterday, I drove to the cheap off-brand grocery store to buy $100 worth of non-perishable food just in case — not TP, off brand potato chips or endless cans, mind you. Customer with a gormless look on her face was staring at the tall stack of 2kg bags of Lantic sugar. “Did they change this?” she asks me. “Where’s the Redpath? My husband doesn’t want me to buy anything from China.”
For the low information citizen, the story is just getting started.
Garth should know that employment is a lagging indicator. Full employment means be wary.
That said I bought equities today to balance the portfolio. Timing works when blood is running, or selling when public buying is going crazy (like this winter).
Glad to see the market down to more reasonable levels. Could get cheaper. Maybe not.
Me? I rather to be Bandit than to sleep on the streets of Turdonto.
The speed of recovery will depend on how quickly the Fed can print vaccines. Good luck catching the falling knife.
TSX down 4.69% from Dec. 31st. No big deal. Have been thru a lot worse in the past. Monday will be interesting though. The shorts will have to buy back in eventually.
To the ‘hand wringing scaredy cats’ out there, remember it could be worse. Never mind Black Monday, October 19th, 1987. It could be August 14, 2003 when the entire electrical grid went dark in eastern Canada. BLACK OUT. Millennials were barely out of diapers then. Imagine that happening in today’s environment where so much is dependent on electricity. Mercy.
Funny thing is I feel rather confident there will be a similar episode in the future. But back to the markets, sure hope some of the hard hearted characters on this blog are pulling out their hankies to shed a tear or two for the poor old bankers who are currently facing the unpleasant task of reviewing borrowing accounts secured by investment portfolios on a ‘margin calculation’ and now have to figure out how to handle the calls they will need to make to people to bring those accounts back into line. What Al Gore referred to as an ‘inconvient truth’. The smart ones will use all their creativity and stall tactics to secure a relationship safe landing. For the nervous nellies out there, the Jaguar recommends they take a deep breath, remind themselves how lucky they are in all other areas of their lives, and perhaps pour a glass of Wild Turkey until the storm blows over. It will blow over. It always does.
#44 Shirl Clarts on 02.28.20 at 4:44 pm
Ain’t that the truth. Cup half empty, cup half full. Some days we get the gold, others the silver, if we’re lucky, we get both:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiPSqwM91gM
#31 Sail away on 02.28.20 at 4:16 pm
APT was it? Sounds the market hussie was there this week already! She takes weekends off but can always stop by during the week day for a visit if you’d like her to. (insert proper emoji)
http://www.alphaprotech.com/
Good call on that one, truly.
Garth,
Same banker and politician manipulation seems to happen to Real Estate, does it not?
That and all the tax-free gains is why the parents are putting kid’s names as owners – it’s the way to continue the tax free gains for themselves basically risk-free while owning multiple houses.
You rarely acknowledge that parents of adult kids would do this. Kid gets to live free, parents book the gains without taxes. Win-win!
#45 Rick Lorensi
TSX high is a poor performer with 15,000 back in 2007 now just over 17,000
——————————————————————
Financials eg: RBC and the rest are up 300% since hitting bottom in Feb. of 09 and have been paying nice dividends all along so I would say that is pretty fair performance. Some components of the TSX have taken a major hit like the energy and materials but for the most part it hasn’t done so badly. All depends what you’re invested in.
#35 LP on 02.28.20 at 4:23 pm
Josh, the advice I would give is predicated on the fact the money is coming from your parents. If you invest and lose. they’ll be mad as hell, sure. But you are their son, they’ll get over it. If the funds were coming from her parents and you invest, and lose, they won’t let you hear the end of it – ever.
What does your intended wife say? Surely she has a say. And if not, why not?
………………………………..
Read carefully. It might not be a she:
“I found my person and we’re getting married on July 1,2020.“
Or maybe he is just politically correct. Like our feckless leader.
Re #46 OK, Doomer? I think that after a week like this in the markets we all need a bit of levity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJphX1WtVSY
The virus knocked Kobe Bryant and Australian fires off the news. Since impeachment failed the left has to find something else to blame Trump for. So far I’ve died from PCB’s, killer bees, acid rain, the ozone layer hole, AIDS, Muslim terrorists, according to the media. In actuality it will probably be complications from diabetes. What we really need is to be scared of large portion sizes.
@SailAway (I wish) #4 re:
“Someone needs to club Josh.
Maybe Raging Renter? You seem to have unresolved anger and proficiency with a club…”
It appears that a slight narcissistic injury may have been inflicted.
Why are you still here? I thought you said you had money to count.
@SailAway (I wish) #4 re:
“Someone needs to club Josh.
Maybe Raging Renter? You seem to have unresolved anger and proficiency with a club…”
It appears that a slight narcissistic injury may have been inflicted.
Why are you still here? I thought you said you had money to count.
The more trump tries to smooth the markets, the worse the markets will become. The markets want a sense of confidence the US Government can address this virus, and trumps anti science, all things pro trumps image approach, will not cut it. I think things will get better , but not soon. But then, I’m not convinced this virus originated from an “animal wet market”. This virus is too good. If a scientist wanted to engineer a virus that would create the most damage, one that could be asymptomatic for two weeks while being infectious would be one of the boxes to be checked.
This may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.- Bill Gates
IMHO, the markets are very nervous and they will go up and down based on the sentiment of how serious Covid 19 is going to get.
I have decided to treat Italy as the bellwether. As Italy gets better so does the likely hood of me hitting the buy button.
For now its caution.
I think this recent correction is nothing more than an indictment of the US response to the Covid19 pandemic. US equities took the worst of it compared to other indexes.
What would you expect when Drumpf puts a guy who doesn’t even believe in science in charge of public health for the world’s largest economy? Prayer isn’t one of ‘P’ words in PPE.
Incompetence may have already let the cat out of the bag in California, where the first positive testee has had no contact with the Asian, Italian, or Iranian clusters. Is it a federal employee sent to assist Americans returning from hot zones? We’ll see.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/28/whistleblower-coronavirus-us-untrained-unprotected
@SailAway #53, re: eating dog.
You have happy dogs (so you say) who worship you (proof you are not narcissitic says you), yet seem to have no problem breaking the social contract we have had with our best friends who have evolved along side us, our help mates for thousands of years.
Actually, this behaviour makes total sense — for someone who rates high on the narcissistic continuum.
“A dog has Covid19.”
That figures.
Yep. Everybody is going to die. And the Leafs are going to win the Cup. This year for sure.
#68 Yukon Elvis on 02.28.20 at 5:31 pm
#35 LP on 02.28.20 at 4:23 pm
————————————
Read carefully. It might not be a she:
“I found my person and we’re getting married on July 1,2020.“
Or maybe he is just politically correct. Like our feckless leader.
————————————
Josh might not be a he, for that matter. Josh could be a zhe or zhey, or a tulip.
In any case, that’s not Josh’s money; it’s a gift with conditions, explicit or not.
@SailAway,
I rescued my mutt (bet your admiring canines are purebred) from a lady who heads a rescue group that sometimes brings home from China, dogs who were destined to be meat. They are extremely psychologically damaged and it takes a lot of work to get them to the point where they are adoptable. By eating dog meat, you contribute to their pain and suffering.
Interesting how blog-dogs are so much better than the average Joe out there? :) Or are they?
It would appear so by the sheer amount of people claiming that they had jumped in with lots of cash today. Nobody was claiming that the last few days LOL.
All of a sudden Power is pushed by Trump to say some BS, stocks jump a bit and everybody claims that they put in some money at the bottom, well what people seem to believe was the bottom today. BS. Nowhere near the bottom IMHO, but I’ve been wrong before. Have a nice weekend, let’s see what happens next week . My money (figuratively speaking as I’ll keep my funds in Bonds for now thank you very much) is on a potential short lived bounce followed by a sea of RED.
Not buying it.
As many as 14% of discharged patients have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation…
Markets won’t recover until vaccine or numbers of virus stall out. It is just getting started.
Typically patients will develop specific antibodies which will protect them from reinfection, however this does not appear to be the case with a certain percentage of coronavirus patients, similar to HIV
Great….
Steven K Bannon – War Room Pandemic going 7 days covering this stuff.
Just remember, at some point it will…………..be different this time…..
I’m not as old a fart as Garth but he speaks wise words in regards to the market corrections over the past 35 years which I well remember. This is just another blip in history that has taken some froth off the market tops.
Don’t panic, hang on and ride out this latest “event”. The markets will achieve equilibrium eventually and then start the eventual re-bound upwards. Momentum will re-appear. If you’re well invested in good financial products stay the course and do not cash out.
Patience everyone.
#39 Yukon Elvis on 02.28.20 at 4:33 pm
—-
Wouldn’t touch any stock on the TSX unless its cross listed to the NYSE and only ETFs that are majority US holdings.
Its going to take a miracle to right this ship and draw investment back. Interest rates can charge the debt cycle again but without foreign investment on our shores our economy is dead.
You see people in Canada put all their money into homes instead of providing investment capital for our industries. That’s why we have to have outside capital to keep this all going. Something that’s totally lost on Trudeau and his gang.
Have any uncashed cheques from CRA? Takes 5 min to find out…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cra-unplaid-cheques-1.5479695
Josh, invest that money and do it now, it will be one of the best financial decisions you will ever make. Do not spend that money on a wedding. My partner and I made that mistake, big wedding, spent far to much, broke for years after. Take my advice, been there.
The last 6 minutes or so and saw the market at -933 and ending -357, says a lot about so called free market. This rally wont last, the bond market is still collapsing. NEVER EVER TRUST USA CORPORATIONS AND GOVERNMENT ESPECIALLY BANKING CARTEL CRIMINALS.
This market was seriously overbought and looking for an excuse to correct – and it found one.
I usually ignore these blips (like the dog in the pic above), but went bravely into my self-directed RSP today and looked at the damage – down 20K – no biggie (and I hold only stocks, and stock etfs, no bonds in my RSP). My wife’s RSP is down even less. TSFAs are OK. Overall, maybe 50K down on everything. A yawner so far.
So I bought some RY stock with the cash there for my RRSP. I don’t need any of this stuff right now, so it will sit for there for the next ten years until I need to start pulling it out of a RIF. A pretty good chance it will be higher by then, and pays over 4% divvy as well.
Next, some VEE etf I think. Maybe on Monday.
We always keep enough cash around for the next few years of ‘needs’ (travel mainly). This allows us to just ignore these selloffs and not panic.
#79 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 6:13 pm
@SailAway,
I rescued my mutt (bet your admiring canines are purebred) from a lady who heads a rescue group that sometimes brings home from China, dogs who were destined to be meat. They are extremely psychologically damaged and it takes a lot of work to get them to the point where they are adoptable. By eating dog meat, you contribute to their pain and suffering.
——————————
That’s nice. Seems like an awful lot of work for a simple possession available anywhere in the world, though. What’s the carbon footprint on those dogs?
I hear pigs can also be kept as pets, but the similarities don’t end there- they’re both delicious.
I’d describe dog meat texture as midway between horse and cat. Eagle is just fowl.
It’s interesting that you’re shaming me for past dog eating and current purebred-owning. You’re actually my mother-in-law, aren’t you… SANDRA?
@#78 re: “might not be a he, for that matter. Josh could be a zhe or zhey, or a tulip”
Well, at least he or she doesn’t eat dog meat and then talk about it like it was a tasty treat, unlike you.
#84 not 1st on 02.28.20 at 6:48 pm
#39 Yukon Elvis on 02.28.20 at 4:33 pm
—-
Wouldn’t touch any stock on the TSX unless its cross listed to the NYSE and only ETFs that are majority US holdings.
Its going to take a miracle to right this ship and draw investment back. Interest rates can charge the debt cycle again but without foreign investment on our shores our economy is dead.
You see people in Canada put all their money into homes instead of providing investment capital for our industries. That’s why we have to have outside capital to keep this all going. Something that’s totally lost on Trudeau and his gang.
……………………………………….
Bullseye. You are bang on. So much malinvestment and misallocation of capital. Truly sad for a country with Canada’s potential………..personally I don’t like etfs or bonds but there are a 3 tsx blue chippers that I like a lot right now.
@89, not a “possession” dude. But you don’t get it. You can’t.
Hope Garth has a post soon but saying in the NP that Morneau is going after the cap gains inclusion rate in the spring budget and Jagmeat is on board to support it.
What a perfect time to put another drag on the country.
https://www.journalpioneer.com/opinion/national-perspectives/john-ivison-expanding-capital-gains-tax-would-be-very-short-sighted-approach-to-fighting-federal-deficit-417359/
Each time the system has self-corrected. Central banks get activist and adjust rates. Governments unleash capital. Stimulus packages and incentives emerge.
Very true. But there is an argument to be made that these actions only delay the inevitable. 2008 happened because the US refused to bite the bullet and endure a deep recession after the 2000 dot.com bust. The dot.com bust happened because Greenspan allowed the tech bubble to inflate rather than allow a mild recession in 1998 after the Russian ruble crisis, the so-called Asian Contagion, and the Long Term Capital bust derailed US growth. The early 90s recession happened because Greenspan and John Crow were forced to aggressively raise rates to rein in the the inflation caused by, you guessed it, Greenspan’s rescue of the stock market in 1987.
Point being, there is no free lunch. Today’s stimulus is tomorrow’s asset bubble is next week’s crash is next month’s recession. The term ‘kicking the can down the road’ is an overused cliche, but apt. At some point, we run out of road. Then what?
#80 Mike on 02.28.20 at 6:18 pm
It would appear so by the sheer amount of people claiming that they had jumped in with lots of cash today. Nobody was claiming that the last few days LOL.
———————————
I’d tend to believe people saying they bought in today as they were saying it in real time.
It is, after all, the logical thing to do, although it’s true that people often aren’t logical.
If markets keep dropping next week, I’ll also be buying more then with my (quite real) available cash.
Those that commented on it always comes back, it is not true because I have many friends and family that have mutual funds from 1997 that still did not reach their original values. I am talking about mortgage, bond funds even equity funds, international, foreign funds.
You have to be very careful about what you buy and if you think holding for a long time. I’m sorry to say but it was much better for the average person and most small investors, savers when interest rates were decent.
A simple GIC or compound GIC at 7%, 8% was a good thing back in the day. Even the late 90’s, 5% to 6% GIC’s were still decent rates. Now with real estate speculation and pumping up by fake money from money printing, 80%+ cut to interest rates what a crime and everyone in so much debt, they got everyone by the scruff of the neck.
Nobody can afford a decent house in most major cities anymore and Canada was a saver nation in the plus and now is a loser, in debt nation in just less than 30 years. I don’t know how people think they can get ahead in a environment of debt, debt, debt, spend, spend, spend, borrow, borrow, borrow.
Remember when they told you to pay off that mortgage of your primary residence and that is a form of forced savings. Now, all or most of Canadians money is in real estate where they live and reverse mortgage rates at 5.5% to 6.5% compounded with high setup fees other fees means a $300,000 borrowed will be double $600,000 in 12 to 13 years. See what happens when you have no savings and other investments to live off.
They fooled most of the population of Canada and people are so confused why they are not getting ahead financially. Canadians are so clueless today as I have not seen in 45 years living in Canada. They are milking the Canadian public like never before.
@SailAway, you make me embarassed to be human.
#83 Bob in Hamilton on 02.28.20 at 6:45 pm
I’m not as old a fart as Garth but he speaks wise words in regards to the market corrections over the past 35 years which I well remember. This is just another blip in history that has taken some froth off the market tops.
Don’t panic, hang on and ride out this latest “event”. The markets will achieve equilibrium eventually and then start the eventual re-bound upwards. Momentum will re-appear. If you’re well invested in good financial products stay the course and do not cash out.
Patience everyone.
—————————————————————–
The TSX down 4.69% ytd after being up 30.2% from its pre Xmas low on Dec. 24/18 (14 months ago) to its high on Feb. 20th. is hardly worth talking about. We could easily see another 10% drop from here so hang on. During periods of high volatility its not uncommon to see the markets drop 2 to 3% during intra day trading and end the day even. Happened many times before. The media and the bullion floggers really jump in during these times and like to make things seem worse than they are. Kinda like the virus thingy.
@SailAway, you are so far gone, but happy in your narcissitic bubble.
Well, it has started:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050747/Families-stockpiling-nappies-food-medicine-coronavirus.html
I understand this is well underway in the US as well with cold medicines in particular becoming increasingly hard to come by, which makes sense since we are at the peak of flu season already so demand was already at seasonal highs.
Whether this corona thing will turn out to be a big deal or not is still to be seen but never underestimate the potential for a panic anyway. It could turn out that the best reason to have a stock of non-perishable foods is because your neighbors might panic and clear out the grocery stores like a Florida hurricane. It could be entirely man-made. Like a herd of buffalo running off the cliff because some guys costumes made a scary noise.
That’s probably what’s happening to the stock market right now too, although it was overvalued before so a correction was probably due.
>>> Breaking news
The Toronto Housing Market is finally collapsing!!
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/toronto-house-under-construction-collapses-falls-into-home-next-door/ar-BB10uikl?OCID=ansmsnnews11
My God, Sail Away has eaten dog, and admits it without a hint of contrition. Blackdog, I think your diagnosis was an understatement. His inability to feel remorse is indicative of sociopathy. Once again Sail Away, I implore you to go back to boasting about your pretend wealth. You were so much easier to ignore back before you started celebrating cruelty to animals.
#64 the Jaguar on 02.28.20 at 5:24 pm
…. October 19th, 1987. It could be August 14, 2003 when the entire electrical grid went dark in eastern Canada. BLACK OUT.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
That’s nothing, January 1998 – no power for our area for I think it was almost two weeks from memory. Only certain parts on-island had it restored within 1 day. Off island was much longer than that.
THAT was something.
>For the record.
I was wondering about this because they’re using the same historical tactics of disrupting the economy for their political ends:
Some of the pipeline protestors are Marxist-Socialists, as noted below, which explains their ideology, strategy, and tactics in their class warfare.
Yoohoo, RCMP! Time to start building a file on them! Domestic terrorists from subversive groups!
—
A closer look at some of the key players in the Lower Mainland’s Wet’suwet’en protests
BY SIMON LITTLE AND JORDAN ARMSTRONG
GLOBAL NEWS
Posted February 26, 2020 7:06 pm
Updated February 27, 2020 7:05 am
…While demonstrators have taken pains to reject the label of “protester,” referring to themselves instead as land defenders supporting Indigenous sovereignty, it has become apparent that behind many of the actions is a much smaller group of activists.
In Vancouver, the face of the string of actions — including an occupation of Attorney General David Eby‘s office and several port blockades — is NATALIE KNIGHT…
…But Knight, who self-identifies as the organizer of solidarity actions with Wet’suwet’en in Vancouver, isn’t from Canada…
…Knight earned a PhD from Simon Fraser University, where she graduated with the Dean’s Convocation medal for her dissertation Dispossessed Indigeneity: Literary Excavations of Internalized Colonialism, described by the school as moving “between the separate fields of MARXISM, feminism, settler colonialism, and critical Indigenous studies.”…
…In the Fraser Valley, there is another activist group that’s either organized or facilitated a series of rail blockades, including two that forced the cancellation of West Coast Express service.
Formerly the Alliance Against Displacement, the group relaunched in January with a “wider mandate” as the Red Braid Alliance for Decolonial SOCIALISM.
On its website, the group calls itself a “revolutionary working class and Indigenous organization active on lands occupied by British Columbia, Canada.”
The group has been active since 2013, but one of its key organizers, IVAN DRURY, has deeper roots — going back to the three-month squat at the old Woodwards building in 2002…
…Global News asked the Red Braid Alliance how a group that was founded on housing advocacy became a central actor in a series of civil disobedience actions in the Indigenous sovereignty movement, but they didn’t want to talk.
“We don’t want to talk to you on the record about that right now,” said the organization’s LISTEN CHEN, reached by phone, “because it feels like a distraction from the movement as a whole.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6601384/who-are-the-wetsuweten-protesters/
Garth, as a public service and to address all those that fear is eating away at them, could you check with your financial geniuses that work with you (MSU): if a person gave you $1M dollars to your firm to invest in a BDL portfolio that was fully invested at the very worst moment, say just pre-GFC. The money was left with your firm and dividends reinvested. All adjustments to the portfolio made as per your process of re-balancing and ratio changes. Worst case scenario. How long did it take for that portfolio to return to original investment and what would it be worth end of last year? Annual returns? A graph would be great. I think it would help people understand that they can handle the down as long as they chill and stay with the program. If you have addressed this already, my apologizes and thanks.
When equity markets lost 55% in 2008-9 (and took seven years to recover), the balanced portfolio declined 20%. That was regained in one year. The next year it advanced 17%. A person who ignored the crisis and stayed invested made an average of 5% annually during the worst three years in our financial lives (to date). – Garth
#74 conan on 02.28.20 at 6:00 pm
This may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.- Bill Gates
IMHO, the markets are very nervous and they will go up and down based on the sentiment of how serious Covid 19 is going to get.
I have decided to treat Italy as the bellwether. As Italy gets better so does the likely hood of me hitting the buy button.
For now its caution.
—————————————————————-
Todays markets are nothing like what they used to be before computerization and HFT. Markets can rise and fall based on headlines and tweets that the systems have been programmed to react to and with very little volume. We saw that back in 2009 when the markets made the huge turnaround with very little volume after hitting bottom in March that year. So what do we make of that? I highly doubt that the virus thingy has much to do with it. Buy the banks.
Who’s ready for a non confidence vote?
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/happy-that-albertas-oil-fuelled-party-is-over-think-again/
#70 GrumpyPanda on 02.28.20 at 5:46 pm
The virus knocked Kobe Bryant and Australian fires off the news. Since impeachment failed the left has to find something else to blame Trump for. So far I’ve died from PCB’s, killer bees, acid rain, the ozone layer hole, AIDS, Muslim terrorists, according to the media. In actuality it will probably be complications from diabetes. What we really need is to be scared of large portion sizes.
————————————————————-
We must be from the same era. Where is this guy when we need him? I loved watching his show. Helped to keep a person on track kinda like Garth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Rukeyser
OK Josh, seriously don’t put this money into the market before discussing it with the generous donors, who gave you the money for a single, dedicated purpose: your wedding.
Garth is probably right, but you never know.
What if the virus continues to spread and becomes more deadly?What if it takes longer than anticipated to produce a vaccine? What if the $10,000 you invested were to fall to $2,000 and stay at that low for a long, long time?
Would you have to pull the plug on your wedding and come clean to Mom? And is so, do you think she’d feel rightly betrayed?
@#89 Sail away
“You’re actually my mother-in-law, aren’t you… SANDRA?’
+++++
ahahahahahahahahaha.
All stops are being remove Trump as the potus. can you believe they would go this far? (not the dems but the powers they report to.) wink wink. some of us know
The so called voices of reason imploring folks to stay calm, chill, ride it out, don’t panic etc. are making a couple big assumptions.
First, not everyone who sells out of a falling market is panicking. Sometimes it’s wise to pay attention to things, extrapolate, and liquidate in anticipation of buying opportunities. Calm as a cow in a vegetarian country.
And second, telling folks to shelter in place–sell nothing–is no different then telling folks to panic and sell everything. It’s a form of recency bias.
The only difference is the smugness with which the ‘trust me, do nothing’ message is delivered.
OMG! You young people still make me laugh (even you Garth).
My brother was in Thailand a few decades back and decided to try dog. ( What the hell, when in Rome….).
He said it was delicious.
He asked the waiter what kind of dog it was,
“Red dog” was the reply.
Pigs are smarter than most dog breeds and people dont bat an eye to chow down on them in western society.
Different cultures different phobias.
Europeans love horse meat.
Some religions shun cow or pig.
Some people eat bats, crickets, worms, on and on…..
Hell.
Some people eat people.
Who’s right?
Who’s to say.
My Hawaiian pizza is burning…gotta go.
Central bank stimulating the economy means rate cuts…….. good luck to those waiting for housing to correct for the last decade, prices are going to get pushed up again in the YVR
#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.20 at 3:33 pm
@#1 Post
“And Bill Gates says that this may be the once a century pathogen we been worried about.”
++++
When did Bill Gates get his Doctorate in Epidemiology ?
—————-
Bill Gates has a whole floor of analysts that think about and forecast everything for him/Microsoft. Many large companies do. I know as I worked on such a floor for a few years. Plus his foundation has been working on vaccinating Africa for many years, so I bet he has some knowledgeable people working for him on that.
#38 DON
Josh got the money with conditions attached. It is not his to spend in ways not specified by his parents. Doing so will probably get him written out of the will. If he spends the money on a trip or loses it speculating in the markets and mom doesn’t get her party there will be hell to pay.
Geez, a guy eats one dog (well, two or three) and suddenly he’s beyond redemption?
@#114 Crowdedelevatorfartz, pigs were not bred to be our loyal companions for 30,000 years like dogs have been. There is no moral equivalence between eating pig and eating dog. That’s not a phobia, but simple right and wrong. As you say, some people eat people. (Which by the way does not support your argument one bit.) Has cultural relativism has eroded our sense of right and wrong so much that it’s normal for Westerners to be nonchalant about eating dogs and cats? We used to know what we stood for and stood against.
“…this could turn out to be one of the key buying opportunities in the last 10 years.” – Garth
I certainly hope so, I’ve twice missed the “buy low” opportunities since early 2017, big beginner’s mistake that I wonder if I’m still repeating: timing the market… Was watching a dozen ETF’s this morning, only down 8-12% (am waiting for ~ 20%) but surprise: they mostly all went back up at day’s end. Sheesh!
@#57 Sail away on 02.28.20 at 5:06 pm
Thanks so much. I guess then to be on the safe side, I’ll stick with the limit price closer to the 52week low and resist the temptation to pay any more depending on how things unfold next week. And if I take a position in SPXL, I might push through all the way with TNA too.
Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, put it, “I suspect there are a number of additional cases in this country that are transmitting this virus, just like we’re seeing in other countries. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Just because we’re not testing for it doesn’t mean there aren’t other cases.
The fact that the virus is very contagious, hard to identify and governments including ours simply can’t test for effectively is probably why Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch told The Atlantic, “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” In other words, a majority of the world’s population could end up contracting the virus.
And, while the World Health Organization has not yet labeled this outbreak a “pandemic,” the pandemic bonds they sold in 2017 are already pricing in that very outcome. So the stock market is merely catching up to the consensus from epidemiologists that a pandemic may already be here.
My RRSP’s and TFSA’s transfers just got in today, 3.0% for 80 months with Duca C.U. I never like markets, even real estate.
If I did not need a place to live and was not handy, I would rent not buy my house. I am glad I am totally debt free now for 4 years. At least that my registered money is compounding interest at least at a decent amount, $25,000 a year.
This is 40% of my annual employment income. My C.P.P, OAS will make up the other equivalent 30% of my employment income. Now at 51, I am focused on building no cash, non-registered money.
My current $50,000 in redeemable GIC’s, savings accounts is a good start. I will be able to retire on 85% to 88% of my gross employment income which I will be able to do in 10 to 11 years, 61 to 62 and $400,000 in cash savings, higher RRSP, TFSA balances.
Josh, you said your parents gave you the money for the wedding. So I would say make sure you give them at least some of what they want in a wedding – if you don’t know their expectations, best to find out. If they want certain friends invited, try to make that happen. If you can deliver what they expect without using all the money, more power to you! Best wishes to you and your betrothed!
Another thing to consider with this corona thing is that the internet was not what it is when SARS broke out. There are a lot more people out there now in scary costumes trying to scare the herd off the cliff just to get clicks.
So here are some industries that could really suffer over the coming months (most involve the gathering of groups of people, especially large groups):
Movie theaters
Vacations especially cruises and beach hotels
Air travel (obviously)
Professional sports
Restaurants – one infected waiter could infect hundreds
Protests (thank dog!)
Elections (one pollster could infect hundreds)
Schools
Obviously work and transit
Tinder
Shopping malls
Ski hills
Even probably Skip The Dishes and taxis
Grocery stores probably not affected because hungry people will risk it to get the food.
Basically any commerce that involves person to person contact could be devastated. All of this could happen just because of the panic, the virus doesn’t actually have to kill all that many people. This is probably why the authorities are downplaying any potential severity, besides the fact that it probably isn’t that bad. But if the herd runs for the cliff…..
I think it is completely plausible because the herd isn’t that smart. Remember 50% of the population is below average IQ. (And yes I am aware of the fact that the 50% refuses to admit that is a statistical inevitability because they don’t understand statistics and notice that the statement doesn’t weigh in on how smart the average person is, just that some are smarter than others.)
So I think it makes the most sense here to make some preparations. Not because of the virus, but because of the potential panic. Things are already happening that shouldn’t just because of a flu. Impeachment failed, so this is what the MSM is running now to sell ads. Impeachment is a good example. Remember it wasn’t all that long ago that Russian collusion and the Ukraine thing were going to sink Trump and that was all the MSM talked about all day everyday. Turned out to be a big nothing burger. Corona probably will too, but remember for 3 years half the population thought Trump was going to be impeached. Probably the 50%.
My fear here is that this will be another mania like tulip bulbs, dot.com and others before it. So make preparations so you are not too affected while everyone else goes crazy.
Do you need face masks? Probably not unless you work in a hospital.
Do you need 2-4 weeks of non-perishable food. Yes, but you always need that for a variety of reasons.
Do you need a generator and flats of bottled water? Probably not. The power isn’t going out over this.
Do you need guns? Well that is going to depend largely on what happens at the grocery store but I would say no.
I think a couple weeks of food and a bottle of cough medicine per person in the house should do it. The panic, like most panics, will come and go. Either that or this thing is going to kill us all, in which case you don’t need to prep. Sort of like you don’t prep for a nuclear war because you will be dead anyway.
@Fartz, at times I thought there was hope for you…no more.
@#102 RagingRanter,
I know man…I called it first though.
@RagingRanter,
It’s interesting how they reveal themselves when you challenge them…lol.
#68 Yukon Elvis on 02.28.20 at 5:31 pm
You’re absolutely right! Bur the advice stands, gender changes a given.
F72ON
Hereditary Blog Dog here.
Key drivers of the Kanadian economy:
– Black market for drugs
– Illegal basement rental suites
– Federal monthly child benefit cheques.
All flowing into more real estate.
#23 Sail away on 02.28.20 at 3:48 pm
I deployed 1/3 of free cash today into US index. No maple.
*********
I too snapped up 200 shares of a US ETF (zsp) – I’m thinking, by the time I need income from it, it will have risen 1.5/2x.
Always painful to watch the slide though…
M56BC
“…this could turn out to be one of the key buying opportunities in the last 10 years.” – Garth
If you have cash. But everybody was supposed to be fully invested, with only some minuscule amount of cash.
Not my words. – Garth
One Russian guy went right into an epicenter of the coronavirus. Proper journalism. Unfortunately, there are no English subtitles. But it’s an interesting watch. Empty streets, ban on public gatherings, most local businesses closed, hard to find a taxi, food available in stores, frequent temperature checks.
Here are a few time references:
Police checks on roads https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=149
Empty roads of Shanghai https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=159
Busy train station in Shanghai, followed by Shanghai downtown footage https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=430
Arrival to Anhui province https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=658
Food market https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=1159
Dron with QR code prompting to install an app that vill track each visitor https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=1476
Antiseptic treatment of cars https://youtu.be/QO4-Txvs5sE?t=1500
#127 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 9:27 pm
@Fartz, at times I thought there was hope for you…no more.
——————————–
Fartz has always been beyond hope. God knows I’ve tried. Prayer, bribery, dog meat sandwiches… Nothing.
#134 akashic record on 02.28.20 at 10:04 pm
Not my words. – Garth
Even the Garth quotes are fake. What else can come?
Crazy F,
The man in black rules, but that tune is far too bleak for a Friday. Here is another, more upbeat Johnny, before political correctness was a thing.
This one goes out to all those dudes blocking the rail lines…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFTZ2–5xTc
Just an odd bit of serendipity… Fired up the old ozone generator today to see if it still kicks out O³. Yes, and don’t stand in the same room when it’s on! Fries everything in the air and on surfaces. (Ionizers stick stuff to surfaces.) Dissipates in a few minutes. Leaves a virus-free sterile environment. The old label is still stuck to it… they called the machine a corona discharge (an electrical term apparently). Who knew?
We will be talking Corona for the next several weeks. We will need music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeAZQJIopsg
@Gil, post #51:
What you said is typical of many so called investors that are sitting in cash and waiting for much cheaper prices that may or may not come. So you run the risk of sitting on a pile of cash that you’re too afraid to put to use until it’s too late. The fact is there are a lot of stocks and ETFs that, because they’re so cheap the yield is high. I bet you said the same thing about REITs when they were on sale in 2013.
#23 Sail away on 02.28.20 at 3:48 pm
I deployed 1/3 of free cash today into US index. No maple.
———–
Deployed?
Keep on deploying.
Id.ot
#20 Sail away on 02.28.20 at 3:44 pm
#3 SS in MTL on 02.28.20 at 3:09 pm
Question for you Garth: When people say this is a buying opportunity… if you were already all in (as you should be, on average), with what cash are you supposed to use this buying opportunity? Or do you mean this is the time to shift from a 60-40 to a 80-20 portfolio?
Thanks
————————
I’ll jump in since Garth didn’t:
If you have a 60/40 right now, a 15% equity drop and static fixed income will bring you to around 56/44, which is still within 5% of the 60/40, so no pressing need to do anything.
If this drop brings you out of balance by more than 5%, then rebalance by selling fixed/buying equities.
Be careful. If you have to move, move slow and incrementally.
———-
Garth,
As I warned you before, this troll is trying to upsurge you.
This is your blog, damn it!
#128 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 9:27 pm
@Fartz, at times I thought there was hope for you…no more.
————
Keep up the good fight, Buddy
The truth always wins.
#44 Shirl Clarts on 02.28.20 at 4:44 pm
#28 crazyfox on 02.28.20 at 3:54 pm
It’s not all bad.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And that’s just it. The Economy has always stood in the way of the Environment. Never the other way around. We will never have the best of both worlds.
* * * * *
Completely untrue.
Natural gas has displaced millions of tonnes of burnt coal, which in turn displaced millions upon millions of trees cut and burnt every year.
If you want to see how the “economy” has improved the environment, you have to look no further than Sub-Saharan Africa where they still cook over charcoal (made from cutting lumber) and deforestation is rampant and a very serious problem.
@#121 Ranting Rager
” We used to know what we stood for and stood against.’
++++
I’m sorry I was busy watching tv where the #shutdowncanada protesters were demanding more money from the working taxpayers of Canada….
P.S. You have to admit.
100 million dog eaters must be on to something.
i bought shares in a property trust a week ago for $6.83. I bought some more today for $6.40. improvement of yield, i like that. adjusted cost basis down, i like that.
Only the best persons can be as true & humble as you, kind sir…
if you’re going to buy the dips, go slow and incrementally. Chances are we are headed for a bear market once 1st qtr results come out. Bear markets can last for a year or more… we are far from the bottom. Start to get some sales but save some cash for the bottom. Remember cdn banks will likely still pay you dividends during a recession.
So Trump is now on record as saying corona virus will likely “go away” at some point but “nobody knows”. Of course the left is all over him for that. But is he not right? Or has modern medical science now and finally failed us for good? Even SARS went away. Ebola has not and neither has Aids but I would say we have it under better control. Polio mostly has gone away.
This is just another example of people hyperventilating every time Trump speaks in his usual New York style. And the MSM is using it to create more panic where probably none is required at this point.
Trump did compare the end of corona to a “miracle”, but wasn’t the end of polio and small pox and the invention of penicillin also miracles? I think that is what he meant.
And don’t forget for a minute that Trump has the best people on the planet in terms of disease control whispering in his ear even if he doesn’t fully understand what they are saying. Even if you conclude that Trump is part of the 50%, don’t think for a minute he is not getting all the information anyone could possibly imagine. It seems Trump said “well let’s put 2.5 billion towards this”. The Democrats immediately said “That’s not enough, it should be $8.5 billion!” Trump’s response was “well sure, whatever you want to move through congress.”
And now Pelosi is saying they need to divert funds from the wall to preventing corona. Well, doesn’t the wall prevent corona? Maybe not the most efficient way but I think if travel bans help stopping illegal immigration might also.
Leave it to the left to politicize everything. And the MSM to dress up in costumes and drive us all towards the cliffs.
#2
Pretty similar here. I sold today some bonds and bought equities (mostly US). If the market continuous falling, I’ll do the same next weekdays. Step by step until I run off all my bonds :)
Btw. for Josh: If you need the money for the wedding, stay away from securities. If you don’t need it to cover the costs, invest it. It should be a great beginning of yours financial future and good luck!
The technical answer behind last weeks big drops is far simpler. Leverage. A tremendous amount of borrowed money had piled on risk over the past year when it looked like the market was gassing up for a moonshot. A little fear and out cane the buy side margin ghouls and out came the beginning phase of capitulation. Everything was being sold, the baby , the bath water, grandmas china, everything had to go to pay back margin debt. The best sold first, the losers next and then the safe havens. That’s why gold and even high paying dividend gems got hit. Not because of anything seriously new and suddenly wrong with BCE or A T & T etc.
And so, we’re back to those “Freaky Friday” sell offs where desk traders are to scared to hold anything over the weekend. There’s lot more fear and debt to be wrung out of panicked retail punters.
Monday morning will likely be a bloody few hours because retail has laid off market order sells after hours….bitcoin inc. I expect the afternoon trade to be short term profitable. Watch the last 15 minutes.
Bargains galore. Cash is a real boon at this junction. Cash flow from dividends keeps us floating above it all. My shopping list is growing. I don’t doubt there’ll be more cats and monkeys thrown into the fire. But, life goes on for the smart money. Zero sales on my desk. But when, that’s a good question. Blood in the streets, it’s up to my ankles. When it’s up to my thighs I’ll have to wade in.
Our govt officials admit they’ve lied to us and so you can expect a new dynamic to set up the media conversation very soon. The hits just keep coming for Justin.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-has-a-plan-of-attack-should-covid-19-spread-and-its-not-what-you-think
He who doesn’t understand
the iron law of supply and demand
will fly off to China, and he’ll buy man’s best friend
and he’ll think that another will go hungry.
But the man selling dogs will say look at this price!
I’ll breed some more dogs, and I’ll buy some more rice
and that is why no one goes hungry
The moral of the story is plain to see
if you don’t want dogs bred for dinner or tea
don’t buy from the man who’ll sell them to thee
for it is he who you want to go hungry
While it is true that coronavirus containment efforts have had an impact on world economies, what puzzles me is the level of what I can only describe as hysteria regarding the disease. We are not talking the Black Death (bubonic plague) or the Spanish influenza here. To date there have been some 85,000 confirmed cases with less than 3,000 deaths as per WHO. Eventually normal programming will resume.
I just looked at the historic chart. If you go back 12 years and compare to today the TSX is still up by 11%.
Not a bad return.
Although management fees may take a small bite out of that return, you should still be up a bit.
Where you really got slaughtered though was in the decline of the Canadian dollar. So important to have currency diversification.
Living the Canadian dream. A stagnant economy with much higher taxes on the horizon as our borrowing escalates.
If it’s one thing most Canadian’s agree on, it’s much higher rates of taxation. I believe it defines us as a progressive nation. Progressive taxes.
The westerners were kicked out because of differing values and traditions. There are no universal shared values and traditions. We share some values and not others. Maybe the Anglos and French will be kicked out this time too. We have separate nations, reservations, et cetera, to prevent conflict, without endless explaining and negotiating values, which never works.
I was talking about the dog eating, but I forgot to mention that.
You people are disgusting discussing eating dogs and cats as if it were a cultural thing.
Its disgusting plain and simple.
Anyone who eats these creatures deserves to get a horrible illness and die.
Rant over.
Limit orders. Is there any privacy associated with them? Ie can the brokerages see the aggregate and act upon it? Say i have a stop set at a dollar, can the brokerages act upon that to trigger a capitulation? Or do they just sell until they see more auto triggered selling on the level 2 orders (i think thats level 2). Dare i ask SM for an explanation? Just thinking stop limits might not be what one should be doing in these conditions.
@128 Delicious Dog
@Fartz, at times I thought there was hope for you…no more.”
++++
Well at least I know, for several nano seconds, you were thinking clearly.
I can always cling to that brief moment of your lucidity. Streaking like a doomed meteor to earth, to expect, perhaps someday, you may consider other opinions beyond your limited gourd.
The real reason this breed is called “Chow Chow” ?
https://books.google.com/books?id=SiBntk9jGmoC&pg=PA168&lpg=PA168&vq=%22black-tongued+chow%22#v=onepage&q=%22black-tongued%20chow%22&f=false
Apparently the ancient Greek philosopher Hippocrates praised the healthy effects of eating dog meat.
DELETED
Funny how this little headline slipped the news yesterday.
Fiat Chrysler to cut 1,500 jobs at Windsor assembly plant
https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/fiat-chrysler-to-cut-1500-jobs-at-windsor-assembly-plant
@#130 Delicious Dog
As per my previous link to the Book “Unmentionable Cuisine”
It mentions different cultures and their different food habits.
Very informative.
As one reviewer stated,
“From guts and gizzards to ears and livers this book has recipes for everyone!”
Yum.
Speaking of food.
Can you give Ponzie Pilot some more peanuts?
He was posting quite a bit last night from the gallery and might be hungry.
@#158 Disgusting
“You people are disgusting discussing eating dogs and cats as if it were a cultural thing.
Its disgusting plain and simple.”
++++
Well if it isnt cultural…what is it?
Tell you what. Prove us wrong about culture.
Go to India and order beef steak.
In the country where cows are considered sacred.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-20/cow-vigilantes-in-india-killed-at-least-44-people-report-finds
One person’s “disgusting” is another persons meal.
I have never eaten dog but then again, I’ve never been starving either…
Hi Josh.
I’ll bite, I’ll show my hand in terms of what I think will happen because I’ve thought about it, even slept on it but mainly because, you asked. The DJ hit it’s all time closing high on Feb 12th at 29,551 points. The S & P 500 all time record was 3,386 on Feb 19th. How far will the DJ fall? Maybe 30%, taking until May to do it.
Yesterday the DJ, without thinking about it too much, a little past 20% or bear market but now… maybe closer to 30%. If I had to hazard a guess for where that bottom is, somewhere between 25 and 30% sometime in May. The S & P 500, a touch over 20%.
What are we hoping for from there, though. Think about that. Are we to hope the DJ hits 30,000 before years end? Like, fat chance, won’t happen. It’s more like 22,000 hits 24,500 if we are lucky and drops again… maybe so your entry and exit point would be late April or May and July? And where’s the next bottom, winter of 2020-21, spring of 2021, 20,000 melting to 18,000? Less? The records we saw in Feb, take a picture, we may not see these numbers again for at least 5 years or more. How long did it take to see a 6,891 Nasdaq post March 2000 market to revisit old highs, Sept 2017?
I could be so wrong. A vaccine could come out sooner than anyone expects changing everything. Early speculation is 12 to 18 months minimum meaning Corona is likely to disrupt world economies through next winter minimum and the market has to price it in. But, that can change. With enough money and science, maybe its gone through trials and rolled out by October and the markets soar. Or maybe it’s pipe dream thinking and will be 15 months from now in the real world leaving everyone nervous and disrupted until then. Maybe the rollout is a bust or the virus mutates into 2 strains becoming just as infectious but more deadly moving the goal posts. Maybe there’s no vaccine at all and make no mistake, governments need to react like there isn’t one coming. They have no choice but to react or see a city of Wuhan experience within their borders. I refer to Schiller chart because it puts things into perspective. Pricing in a budding unchecked pandemic at these valuations, where do readers think it will go?
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
This market is moving past earnings season now and all the market will have to focus on is the world. What moves the herd is headlines from here. Right wing media left Corona alone until last week somewhat predictably, they systematically bury news that can hurt Trump. Left media has seen better coverage for the last 3 or 4 weeks, specifically CNN. 4 out of 5 stories on CNBC were Corona related yesterday. Before that, not much for coverage, 1 or 2 stories. My point is, media moves the herd. It matters and if media continues to give Corona the time they did this week, the selloff will continue because its not a good narrative.
I haven’t followed BNN much but Corona has coverage there and I’ll quickly say that the TSX outage yesterday coupled with today’s 454 point drop, this was a bruising day for Canada’s markets. Commodities are predictably hammered by the slow down in consumption in Asia and travel and spending. Oil’s falling into a ditch and nat gas is a total disaster (as predicted). We were down nearly 800 points this morning, some Canuck sellers lost money today but did we really? There’s more bad than good to expect from the news cycle and world spread of the virus explains why.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Right now, we have 6,000 confirmed cases outside of China. These are small numbers but the market lesson is, it doesn’t have to kill or even infect many people, just kill consumption, keeping people stationary and grounded and that’s what it’s doing. The nations that have community spread now outside of China are in:
South Korea 2,931
Italy 889
Iran 388
Japan 234
Singapore 98
U.S. 64
Germany 60
France 57
Kuwait 45 ?
Bahrain 37 ?
A week ago, Japan led the pack. Singapore is likely not a concern, its in both hemispheres a touch north of the equator, its 90 degrees there now but the odd case keeps coming up so they are worth a watch to see how Corona reacts there. Iran is likely to have widespread under reporting because of economic fallout from Trump’s oil embargo, their state of health care and want to gather socially in masses. There is by my count at least 70 nations with at least one case which is by itself, alarming when we consider the length of time these cases are in hospitals generally before confirmation. These numbers will only grow, South Korea, Iran and Italy blew up last weekend and what followed is restricted borders, South Korea’s 4th largest city under lock down, flights cancelled, people in mass staying home, schools closed, who is it this weekend, Germany? France?
If either nation pops, expect a stiff Monday selloff as Corona ignites European fears already stoked from Italy. Just the threat alone might be enough. Berlin or Hamburg or Paris under strict travel, borders tightening, its unfortunately no longer all that hard to imagine:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-28/korea-cases-top-2-300-nigeria-confirms-infection-virus-update
I do see some good news coming though in mid March on and its out of China. Their infected numbers continue to fall and the media and governments will be behind what’s currently being discussed on this nascent, incipient blog. In the province of Hubei, no one is allowed to leave their doors, a large contributing factor but outside of Hubei diagnostically, temp readings for travelers and a government monitoring cel phone registry app is looking like the reason why these numbers are falling elsewhere and if so, its good news and the rest of the world should follow the example set and go with what works if this continues to prove itself effective. Canadian governments here need to take note.
Good news will come with China going back to work. Pent up demand is another good news story. There will be bad numbers coming out of Asia Q1 and to a lesser degree Q2 no doubt but there is reason for optimism later in Q2 and Q3 as the days get longer so a positive narrative will emerge there.
The summer is ending in the southern hemisphere… where will numbers be out of Africa in a couple months? If Corona thrives there, North America needs to be ready this winter because it will spread north with the change of the seasons or re-erupt in clusters establishing themselves now in the northern hemisphere assuming weather will even play a role. We don’t really know what COVID-19 likes yet. Temperatures… humidity… what level of aerosol transmission, Diamond Princess suggests there is some degree of it, still too many unknowns leaving room for surprises, if anyone can fill in these gaps, feel free.
Consider for a moment that most people running a temperature are sick from the flu. When people show up sick with respiratory symptoms and fever at a hospital, they run a series of tests that look for all the usual suspects i.e. flu. When everything comes back negative they run more tests and in this climate are put under tighter hospital quarantines especially as the patient worsens until Corona or some other cause can be confirmed.
Such was the case with a person from California on Sunday. It was a hospital transfer from another hospital the patient was at for 3 days (there were some reports, a week), they ran tests at the second hospital, couldn’t find the virus or bug from all the usual suspects, suspected Corona and contacted CDC on Monday. CDC didn’t get a diagnostic out until Thursday to confirm during which, Trump is telling everyone we are well prepared and ready for the impact of Corona.
This woman was sick for 7 days in 2 hospitals before confirmation. On top of this, she was from the same county as Diamond Princess cruise ship evacuees meaning dots should have been connected. One could address this as an outlier and diffuse it, but it’s sloppy. This, readers, is what a crack in a dam looks like with terrible PR timing and as of tonight, 3 cases in the U.S. are reported with origins unknown meaning community spread. Maybe next weekend or the weekend after, its L.A. that pops off or Orange county. This is the stuff the markets are forced to ask now and to think governments can’t take it seriously is to be the next Wuhan. Never mind Europe or Asia, is North America ready for COVID-19 if it comes here?
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-threat-gives-strapped-state-003512432.html
The CDC has faced cutbacks by 1/3rd since 2013. Trump’s claim that “I’m not going to pay people to stand around and do nothing, they are all still there, they’ll come back” answer on Thursday does little to suggest the U.S. is organized enough to handle this. I will remind, we are are talking about a U.S. system that doesn’t offer health care to 11% of its people (basically anyone below the poverty line) with more than 1/4 of its people receiving inadequate health care. The nation is rife with discrimination, we see it in the tax code, in politics, in it’s people, in its behavior, heck no, the U.S. isn’t ready for this.
The U.S. could be, diagnostics need to be set up quickly. People’s temps should be read in Cali counties where there are cases as we speak. Diagnostics need a big bump there and the U.S. federal government needs to step up and look at national health care provided “at no cost” in relation to COVID-19 or face the consequences. We need leadership out of the U.S. in times like this and instead we’ve got Trump so no, the U.S. is not ready. In Canada we’ve got a hands down better system for handling CV but we need to move quickly on diagnostics here too and once again, look at China is doing to keep their numbers down and prepare for an American shit show because it will likely be one and will likely splash up here.
In short, remember the expression “rear view mirror”. History does repeat, but it never looks exactly the same going forward to wit, don’t give up your day job. Some market periods are awfully difficult to turn market investments (think .com bust or 911 or GFC or commodity crash of 2016) into profit and I fear we have entered such a time so, be mindful. Supply demand fundamentals have shifted. Get used to the idea of world GDP growth at or near zero for 2020. Guaranteed, this will mean plenty of economies in recession with Asia leading the way. There are some winners out there but far more losers I fear so… don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose for one, this is the one rule you cannot break.
All 10k on 29 Black!
#21 wallflower on 02.28.20 at 3:44 pm
also have a pile of US $$$ that I was thinking to transferwise to Canada currency … good thing I held off on that
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Are you happy with transferwise? I looked into it a while back and there were lots of complaints about long exchange times up to weeks in limbo.
So I still use Nelson’s Gambit, but would be interested in trying Transferwise if the bugs are worked out.
@#158 Disgusting
“You people are disgusting discussing eating dogs and cats as if it were a cultural thing.
Its disgusting plain and simple.”
++++
If you really REALLY want an eye opener read James Clavell’s excellent book “King Rat”.
A fictional story of British and American prisoners of war based on his own personal experiences.
The ONLY way the POW’s survived years of starvation by their Japanese captors was by eating rats caught in the POW camp.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Clavell
Apparently your culinary sensitivities go out the window when you’re slowly starving to death.
About 10 years ago I also had the honour of meeting a former British POW who was captured by the Japanese on his first day of joining the British military in Singapore. He was only 17 and survived 5 years of torment and starvation.
He attributed his survival by following the British camp doctor’s early advice. ‘Eat any protein you can get your hands on, bugs, mice, rats, birds, anything to survive. ”
I have his autographed book ” My Life with the Samurai- How I survived the Death camps” by Anthony Cowling ISBN 0 86417 813 3 in my collection.
I asked him if he still bore any grudges against his Japanese captors and he smiled and said, “I drive a Toyota! They’re bloody good cars!”
If you are hungry enough. You WILL eat anything.
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.20 at 8:12 pm sez:
“My brother was in Thailand a few decades back and decided to try dog. ( What the hell, when in Rome….).
He said it was delicious.
He asked the waiter what kind of dog it was,
“Red dog” was the reply.
Pigs are smarter than most dog breeds and people dont bat an eye to chow down on them in western society.
Different cultures different phobias.
Europeans love horse meat.
Some religions shun cow or pig.
Some people eat bats, crickets, worms, on and on…..
Hell.
Some people eat people.
Who’s right?
Who’s to say.
My Hawaiian pizza is burning…gotta go.”
——————————————————————
Blackdog sure has her bonnet in a bunch. She’s determined herself to be the arbiter of right on wrong for cultures around the world.
That said… Hawaiian pizza? How barbaric!
Re: dog eating, trump, climate change, first nations, trappers
I always find intolerance fascinating, especially when justified by the moral outrage of the day.
Dog eating is legal in Canada. Trapping is legal. Hunting, agreeing with Trump, questioning climate change- all legal.
Blockading railroads? Illegal.
Which would garner greater outrage: a public dog barbeque or a public railway blockade? Now, what if FN were the ones eating dog, and white boomers were blockading the rail?
#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.29.20 at 9:34 am
Re: King Rat
Love that book. Very instructive the way all the sycophants turned on the king when the situation changed.
“Has cultural relativism has eroded our sense of right and wrong so much that it’s normal for Westerners to be nonchalant about eating dogs and cats? We used to know what we stood for and stood against.”
I love these hot flashes of parochiality, when a man in an armchair declares his beliefs and those of his neighbours to be those of Western civilization, for all eternity.
Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen fed his dogs and his men on the weaker ones (the dogs, not the men), and this was pre-planned — in 1911. The Swiss sometimes eat dog today.
You want some real culture shock from a mere 135 years ago? Is murder and cannibalism sometimes OK? Public opinion was yes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_v_Dudley_and_Stephens
My grandfather didn’t die on a beachhead to protect dogs and cats from human predation. Actually, he didn’t die on a beachhead at all, but if he had, it most certainly wouldn’t have been for that.
#158 Disgusting on 02.29.20 at 8:30 am
You people are disgusting discussing eating dogs and cats as if it were a cultural thing.
Its disgusting plain and simple.
Anyone who eats these creatures deserves to get a horrible illness and die.
————————-
Deserves to die?
If God didn’t want us to eat animals, he wouldn’t have made them out of meat.
#165
I usually stroll passed oversized comments, but this one I read all the way through.
Good work.
Hi #169 Bytor the Snow,
Think Mad cow.
Is your protein source healthy before it cames to you is an important consideration.
Cows were feed left overs of dead animals parts(sleep I think) mixed in with there feed, instead of just grass, so they would gain weight faster, so producers made money faster.
When some cows started getting sick, the farmers not wanting to lose money, quickly took them to be processed into meet to sell to people…
Fartz, lay off that culturally-appropriated Hawaiian pizza, you settler/colonizer, probable racist, you!
#167 Sail Away on 02.29.20 at 9:33 am
Are you happy with transferwise? I looked into it a while back and there were lots of complaints about long exchange times up to weeks in limbo.
So I still use Nelson’s Gambit, but would be interested in trying Transferwise if the bugs are worked out.
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I use Transferwise and have no complain. Rates are as google’s and transfer usually takes around 2-3 days.
#177 MaryEn on 02.29.20 at 5:03 pm
Re: transferwise
Thanks!
Fun fact.
SARS 2003
CHINA GDP. 1.7 Trillion
Coronavirus
CHINA GDP 12 Trillion
Cornavirus. 10x more deadly.
Garth – but what happens if Bernie is elected?
Bought about $25,000 U.S. of Dow Chemical at 10:20am October 19th, 1987. Sold around 10:00am the next day and bought about $20,000 U.S. worth of Gillette Corporation.