Nancy’s in a state. “Hope you pick a scared-looking puppy for this post,” she says. “Feels very appropriate.”
No, we’re gonna use a cat.
However, she caught my attention with a pretty good MSU: “My husband initially forced me to read your blog (out loud to him) with plenty of sighs and eye rolls on my end but now I look forward to our nightly ritual, I swear!”
Okay, N. You’re in. Now what’s this anxiety thing?
I’m hoping you can quell my anxiety right now by helping us not lose all of our money. We make 160k combined and have close to 900k invested in rrsps and tfsas. Our investments are relatively balanced but we do own pretty large portions in our “winning” stocks (Tesla, Shopify, Apple and Facebook) the rest are in ETFs. As the stock market is currently taking a gargantuan tumble, what should we do? Should we take our money out now and buy again at the bottom? Should we stay put hoping this sneaky virus goes away and things return to normal? Should we buy a house with our money – seems like that market isn’t being effected by the virus… Please help otherwise I’m afraid we’ll be right where we started years ago with nothing left in our savings!
Yes, fear is the strongest of emotions. It trumps greed, sex or the way you feel when someone says ‘hereditary chiefs.’ This week has been ugly for investors as the virus spreads, traders take risk off the table and the stock market lurches into a correction (down 10%). As described here two days ago, money has cascaded from equities into bonds, driving prices up and yields down. Oil’s been whacked as have most commodities. And look at volatility – wow, an eruption. Similar to 2011.
Now contemplate the comment made by blog dog Bill about the stock market’s slide from record highs. This is what I mean about the effect of fear:
Garth doesn’t get it. This virus is the real deal. Tens of millions will die. The global economy will be completely wrecked. I think we break the 2008 lows. Ultimately, your investment portfolio right now is going to be less of a concern than how much food and supplies you have stocked up on. It’s going to be a shock when this hits people and they will panic when they realize how unprepared they are. Grocery store shelves will get cleared out one day soon. It’s happening.
Covid-19 cases are fading in China and growing outside. The crap on social media and the icy fingers gripping the hearts of some of wussy doubters down in the steerage section are predictable. People never change. They think half the world will get this and countless millions die. But in Wuhan, a city of 11 million, there were (at most) 70,000 cases – .6% of folks. Deaths there have run at 0.02% of the population at large.
So, Nancy, there may be empty store shelves in the coming weeks but you probably won’t get the virus and you surely will not die. Nor is this what Mr. Market has been worried about, either. Instead the issue is a drop in global economic output caused by the public health response, leading to diminished corporate profits. If you think that sounds like a temporary hit, well, bingo. Exactly the case. And in that reality there is much optimism.
Investors hate uncertainty, so until a timetable emerges, the selling will continue. We’re maybe half-way there. The correction of 10% that has occurred could turn into a 20% drop – the technical definition of a bear market (the same thing happened at the end of 2018, when people on this blog utterly capitulated. Then markets gained 30%.).
What’s likely to occur at that point (or sooner)? Central bank action, for one. The market now believes rates will drop two or three times by the end of the year, lopping 60-70 basis points off existing levels. That will inject a huge amount of liquidity into the economy, and because this is a global issue there will be a global response. Central banks will likely move in a coordinated fashion, while governments also scramble to restore equilibrium. Look at Hong Kong. This week they handed spending cash to every adult.
Meanwhile the reasons markets went up two months ago are still in place. “Even with the retracement… we’re still at cycle highs,” says a Wall Street manager. “But once we get through this very large uncertainty, markets will have an enormous coordinated tailwind of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help those equity valuations in 2021.”
Expect the Bank of Canada to trim its key rate in April, given the virus, the FN blockades, the oil sands disaster and the plopping price of oil. (There should be a cut next week, the CD Howe Institute argued on Thursday.) All that is pushing Canada towards a temporary recession, and pushing the bank to act. Which it will.
So the virus may be a new challenge, but the ultimate pattern should follow that of past shocks – from the GFC to Y2K to 9-11. It may come with more emotion, and more disruption in daily lives if subways and schools close for a while. And the sight of malls full of people in surgical masks is chilling.
But in terms of your portfolio, Nancy, sit tight. Never sell into a storm. The balanced and diversified part will be fine. The individual stocks will be more at risk. Sounds like you failed to realize capital gains and move them into safer, broader assets. Remember that lesson for next time.
Yes, there’ll be one. We shall have exactly this conversation again. Count on it. Now go and load up on toilet paper before Bill hoards it all.
Letter from a Chinese blog dog…
Thursday, 8 pm ET. I just received the following letter from a regular reader working in China, who is living through the Covid-19 storm. You might find this of interest.
Writing you again as a Canadian investor working and living in China through the Coronavirus. I’ve written you in the past, but I just thought I’d share with you a response to Bill who you featured a fearful comment from today on how the Coronavirus is going to destroy the worlds population and market.
Over here in China (where I’ve been living and working for over 2 years now), at least in my southern city near the Hong Kong border things are returning to normal. More and more shops are open. People are out and about in parks and sidewalks. People have returned to work – myself included. Everyone still wears masks outside their house all day and we sign in to every location we visit via an app so potential outbreaks could be tracked quickly. But there hasn’t been any new confirmed cases in this City of nearly 20 million in days.
As a daily reader of this blog for years now, who’s recently started a new job with a 30% salary increase, I’m excited to see this downturn and will be investing every cent I possibly can into this storm to take advantage of these sale prices!
Thanks again for all that you do! You’ve helped this moister relate more to boomers financially, and looking at my portfolio, that’s a good thing.
233 comments ↓
This is the 4th Turning folks. See : Neil Howe.
I believe Bernie will win the election. This virus is putting health care front and centre.
I bought the office a 3 course sushi lunch with all the fixings today in appreciation of the Coronavirus bump.
I also suspect the TSX shutdown was triggered by automatic 10% stoplosses activating.
Love it. The further she drops, the better. 20% would be great, 30% incredible, and 40% would lead to a Sail Away absolute world domination.
Sorry, you said hereditary chiefs. This is the truth. We are all born the same. Everything else is lies created by men. NO ONE is entitled to anything. On the topic, I have not sold anything. But I’m scared of maple now.
Went to the local orange store to pick up supplies for our staff who work regularly with respiratory hazards involved in some aspects of renovations/construction. No N95’s on the shelves…everything had been cleaned out. The irony is most people who scooped them up probably have no idea how to use them properly.
Store shelves will be empty..
When we were kids there was 4 food groups
Today – All meat, little Veggies and lots of Supplements.
Very few young folks eat fruit or dairy
This will have a big impact on long term health and greatly push the burden on our healthcare system
Oddly enough – the first thing I thought about when this virus started going…was that opportunity is going to start knocking!
All the fearful and weak will sell, providing some real value for the rest of us!
Pre-Greaterfool…I never would have thought this way, I would have gone to cash, and realised my losses (again).
Thanks Garth!
Finland on oil.
http://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/70_2019.pdf
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/8848g5/government-agency-warns-global-oil-industry-is-on-the-brink-of-a-meltdown
Also privacy law changes for digital age and competition bureau?
https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2020/competition-bureau-flexes-muscles-privacy-sphere/?utm_source=vuture&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=vuture/
Pretty sure somebody blockaded the TSX and shut it down.
Nothing works in this country anymore.
Given the hysteria with folks avoiding public places due to “the virus” does this mean the RE spring rutting season may also be affected? Will it be the House Sales Weasels excuse/spin for affected sales? So many questions
Oh and thanks again to Ontario women for putting Twinkletoes back in power. He’s totally the right person to run Canada at a time of potential global crisis. A first-rate intellect.
Where do you get the animal photos?They are the absolute best.
“Once it’s filled with gold and jade, your house will never be safe” — Lao Tzu
More practically, Garth, why didn’t you blowtorch Nancy for holding high risk individual tech stocks?
Rate of new cases dropping in China.
Rate of new cases outside of China are exponentially growing.
There is a gap between when the virus enters a new country, and when it is discovered/dealt with. That window is exponential. So what we’re seeing now, I think is the aggregate of all these little windows as it pops up around the globe. But each of these countries could follow the same trajectory as China.
Plus: 13 cases in Canada. That’s all.
Almost time to trim the bonds and top up the equities. Haven’t even looked at my accounts yet but may have to in order to re balance. Let’s see what the damage is.
While I agree that there is no need to panic selling your equities, stating that mortality is 0.02% of the population is disingenuous.
Mortality of the people that get the virus (assuming the numbers of sick and dead are as declared) is between 2.5-3%. That’s about 25 times the rate of flu. And the measures Chinese took to curb the spread are draconian and justifiably so. Forget Wuhan, any person returning in Shanghai lets say home from another city was quarantined for 2 weeks (home stay). Something I can’t believe is achievable outside of China. So lets hope virus spread is controlled, right now we are far from it.
The bottom line is: corona is more lethal (no surprise without vaccine) and more contagious (reported by CDC). On a good side it responds well to available antiviral treatment and protocols
There is nothing ‘disingenous’ about the mortality rate in Wuhan. It’s a fact. Most people will never contract this and the vast majority who do will not die. The exaggeration and scaremongering is over the top. Don’t feed it. – Garth
I am going to go with your reassurance, Garth. These days, I just don’t look at my portfolio. Despite the ups and downs, my portfolio is up 50% since I became a Turner client five years ago. I am a physician in Alberta, and things are hairy these days with fears about the coronavirus and the government’s unilateral termination of its payment contract with doctors (which means that our income will be rolled back but we don’t even know by how much). I know this sounds pollyannish, but one survives best by being philosophical and not yielding to panic and anger, although I have my moments.
When’s the best time to buy stocks or equity ETFs? When there’s blood in the streets. Sound familiar?
Its not a bad idea to go catastrophe shopping for non-perishables just in case. Try buying canned baked beans, canned tuna, canned fruit, rice, pasta, butter, toilet paper, nuts, fruit juices, granola bars, bread, frozen chicken (but only if the electricity doesn’t stop running), beef jerky, lots of bottled water, beer, crackers. Two weeks’ worth would be enough. Once the crap hits the fax go out and buy another week’s worth before the shelves go bare. Having a water filter is useful too. Don’t forget to get an extra can opener. Firewood if you have a fire place. The government should be able to fix the supply chain within 3-4 weeks.
so much for global diversification
Well, … as the market finally froze today, I had Tchaikovski’s “The Orchestral Suite No. 4, Op. 61” on at full volume on my iPad! It’s a piece more commonly known as “Mozartiana”. Very, very nice, …
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
I’m not too worried about this drop but your optimism, words and logic sure do help. Thanks garth
#18 Lee on 02.27.20 at 4:14 pm
Its not a bad idea to go catastrophe shopping for non-perishables just in case.
Once the crap hits the fax go out and buy another week’s worth before the shelves go bare. Having a water filter is useful too. Don’t forget to get an extra can opener. Firewood if you have a fire place.
The government should be able to fix the supply chain within 3-4 weeks.
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But first, get ammo. Plenty of ammo. Enough for sustenance and the zombies.
” Look at Hong Kong. This week they handed spending cash to every adult.”
Ah, helicopter money is always reassuring.
A Capitalist is tweaking the Toronto Stock Exchange and rigging the markets:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-thursday-1.5477966
Went to a few Safeways in Vancouver. Entire isopropyl shelves cleared out. Luckily people aren’t rushing for the food just yet. If there is any sort of quarantine, non-perishables are a must, and even if there is no shortage, there will be a price shock once people begin panicking, so best to ride it out by locking in prices now, before they escalate. 33 confirmed cases in California means it won’t take long before the disease shows up here officially.
We have the luxury of an advance warning so now is the best time to buy things quietly – the kind one needs anyway. I have many friends who are concerned, but living paycheque to paycheque they can’t stock up on anything.
The best time to panic is to panic first, and if nothing happens, nothing happens. Food is food. No harm in securing nutrition and cutting the need to frequent public places later down the line. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
#22,
And most of all, don’t forget the tin foil.
This TSX closing is pretty weird. I just was on my way to sell some bonds and buy equities when I realized it’s closed.
If I understand well Questrade it’s due to some technical issues. On the other side, a both exchanges have problems in the same time (TSX and Montreal). Aren’t they like separate markets with different systems or they all use the same one?
That is one crafty cat!
Be like Trump – avoid shaking hands, use hand sanitizer if you do, leave the room if someone sneezes or coughs and let Mike Pence do all the work and take the blame if things go sideways.
We should be fine!
I am building a whole new way for people to take responsibility for their wealth management and planning. Soon to be shared.
What are ya’ll doing? Watching CNN biz news? Lol.
A most excellent post today. Thank you.
“There is nothing ‘disingenous’ about the mortality rate in Wuhan. It’s a fact. Most people will never contract this and the vast majority who do will not die. The exaggeration and scaremongering is over the top. Don’t feed it. – Garth”
*****************************************
Garth, The spread stopped in Wuhan so far thanks to the fact that effectively marshal law was imposed. People would have to get passes to leave their buildings (to purchase necessities only). Do you see it happening lets say in Toronto? Nobody has any idea where would the virus be without such measures, since it is more contagious than flu.
But somehow you call your speculation – fact and mine – “feeding it”.
I am not saying that one should stop leading its life, I for one am leaving with my family to Europe during March break (cant cancel it, my parents are too old and they will not have too many chances left to see their grand kids again). But presenting your statements as facts is as laughable as locking yourself in a basement.
Virus is contagious and not yet preventable, so we rely on the fact that (knock on wood) so far it hasn’t widely spread outside of China
Diane Francis: The beginning of the end of Canada’s high living standards
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-canadas-high-living-standards
When I worked at U of T – on Huron Street, A young woman asked me to sign a petition against leg hold traps. I didn’t. Playing with my cousins up near Sundridge, there was a boy whose father was a trapper – at least he was a trapper sometimes. The family lived in a house with no siding – there was just tar paper. The young woman didn’t know that her petition was against the interests and welfare of this family.
so I agree with Diane Francis when she writes:
When the history of this period is written the Liberals, NDP, and Greens, plus United Nations zealots and non-transparent NGOs, will be the villains. Also to blame will be the political culture dominated by people who haven’t a clue as to what provides jobs or pays the nation’s bills.
Oh yes, Central Bank action cures a virus and fixes supply chains.
Think V-shaped recovery.
I don’t know, but I sure wish I’d gone all cash a week ago. Took long enough to climb back up from the losses in late 2018. How long will it take this time? I’m really starting to think that investing in market indexes is a loser’s game. I can’t think of a better alternative, though.
Garth, speaking hypothetically, if one had sold a chunk of one’s portfolio before the losses began, when should you buy back in?
Covid-19 cases are fading in China and growing outside.
——–
Sure. How about we allow kids to go back to school and open factories and shopping markets again and test that theory.
Or ask if we do believe China and the numbers are decreasing, how easily would the disease spread again if hundreds of thousands of people live in homes like the one shown in the link below.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-coffinhomes/fearing-coronavirus-hong-kongs-coffin-home-dwellers-stay-indoors-idUSKCN20J1BS
Are we just going to quarantine the entire world until a vaccine has been made?
Will it be like the flu shot and not work if you are already sick?
Do most companies have a business continuity plan to deal with viruses like this?
How will the industries that rely heavily on tourism survive the downturn while we wait for a vaccine?
How will printing more money or lowering interest rates help hotels, cruise liners, tourist attractions or people temporarily laid off from work if the WHO said a vaccine could take 18 months before it is ready for large scale human testing?
Here was the login message online TD Web Broker after the shutdown:
Feb 27, 2020 TSX and TSX Venture closed
Today the TMX experienced an internal technical issue that affected service across multiple marketplaces. The TSX and TSX Venture exchanges were halted at 1:54 p.m. ET. TSX Alpha was halted at 1:51 p.m. ET. All exchanges are now closed. TMX has identified the issue and is working to rectify it. Any orders on U.S. exchanges were not impacted.
If you submitted instructions to change or cancel any orders that are open past today, the last instruction received will be in effect when the exchanges re-open.
We appreciate your patience and apologize for the inconvenience.
real estate income– nothing beats it, and is extra sweet during these equity busting times
#20 Figmund Sreud on 02.27.20 at 4:21 pm
Well, … as the market finally froze today, I had Tchaikovski’s “The Orchestral Suite No. 4, Op. 61” on at full volume on my iPad! It’s a piece more commonly known as “Mozartiana”. Very, very nice, …
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
………………………….
Crikey ! Are u sitting on a nest trying to hatch some eggs ?
No matter what happens, Canadians will continue to keep buying shitty housing for 1M+. Even though they have no money to buy food, clothes or even tip decently. Our great president Trump will overcome this. USA! USA! USA!
So far the have been 2817 deaths. Let us put that in perspective.
On average 250 human babies are born every minute. So it will take the women of the world a little under 12 minutes to make up for all the people that have died of the corona virus so far.
Corona virus is a terrible tragedy for the families and friends impacted but relative to global population it is not that significant.
“hereditary chiefs”
The local aboriginals blocked the Pat Bay highway, an important route going up the Saanich Peninsula from Victoria to the Swartz Bay ferry terminal during peak traffic hours yesterday afternoon. Police diverted traffic to smaller roads, leaving all the commuters and people going to the airport or the ferry to contend with a slow crawl that added an hour or more to their intended travel times. Whatever the aboriginals are trying to achieve, they sure aren’t gaining any support with this sort of nonsense.
Classic Garth. Never sell into a storm, ever?
How about selling before the storm? I mean, I get the ‘ignore the noise’ mantra, but why not time the markets?
I moved to cash last week and can, right now, buy every investment I sold back at discounted prices. Already.
Costs me nothing to sell, nothing to buy…it’s a couple clicks of my mouse.
I told everyone I know to move to cash or eqivs 10 days ago. No one did. They’re all much smarter than I, clearly.
Now I know how Garth feels: you try to help people out, try to explain the virtues of the building buying opportunity, and they laugh in your face.
As the Japanese say, “Zannen, ne. Shoganai.”
Too bad. It (people’s beliefs) can’t be helped.
Well…no rush for this one, but when I buy back in at a 20-40% discount, the exact ETFs I held before, I’ll try not to smile too widely.
Oh, and: I guessing my house price has already started going down. Strangely, the walls and yard are the exact same size as they was before.
Zannen, ne.
Sorry, have to disagree. I think (who is this guy?) the economies of several nations were heading toward a downturn last summer. There is a lot of wealth built on stilts out there. Inflation can’t be sustained. Consumer profiles changing. Lots of foam in valuations. Might I reference the 1000 year Fed recession/employment chart? Those spikes come like a thief in the night. Coronavirus is just a scapegoat.
“There is nothing ‘disingenous’ about the mortality rate in Wuhan. It’s a fact.”
While I agree that the scaremongering is over the top and should be ignored by almost everyone, in fairness Garth, this may be a fact but it is potentially a misleading one. You’re ignoring Bayes. It’s a conditional probability.
People laugh at preppers and now the mainstream media, indeed, canada’s health minister and the CDC are saying “stockpile food and medicine.” lol It’s a bit justice considering all the flack I’ve gotten over the years for being mildly prepared.
Stock market down again. Interest rates plopping hard soon. I got a feeling a lot of money is going to flee the markets for real estate soon–and it might not be so easily brought back. Glad I bought an investment property, contrary to what Garth says here. At the end of the day teh stock market is subject to all manner of “whims”. I mean who would have thought that a virus was going to come out of a bat cave and create economic havoc? What else could be in store? Dirty bomb? natural disaster? Too many factors for me to consider and stress over, I’d rather my portfolio be something I can live in and stock up with beans and canned ham.
Each to their own. I don’t live in fear, but I am just a realist. Live by Occam’s razor and Murphy’s law.
Being a crazy prepper and loading up on Storm Chips are two different things. – Garth
not surprisingly during this market meltdown they also have dropped
they should not be considered in the fixed component of a portfolio, they do not act inversely to equities
They pay you to own them – currently 4.6%. Not bad. – Garth
#43 “The local aboriginals blocked the Pat Bay highway”
It struck me today that Canada is perhaps the first nation in human history to be governed by elites who believe the entire project of building the nation they rule has been improper and immoral. Forget longer commutes – our elites think it would be better had our nation not existed. The nation being a very important framework for the institutions that allow individuals and groups to function, the implications are astounding.
There has been 13 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Canada. How many serious car accidents are there everyday? Yet no one blinks about hopping into a car.
A balanced portfolio has taken a 1%-ish haircut year-to-date. How much did that portfolio make in 2019?
Paranoia isn’t helpful.
#33 45north
Seriously? Leg traps? If the petition was signed and if your friend’s father lost his job he probably would go on to find a new job. The question still stands, do you think he has a right to inflict pain and death onto another animal?
#33 45north on 02.27.20 at 4:52 pm
Leg-hold traps are sadistic, barbaric, and banned in 90 countries and about a dozen US states (so far). They are often utilized by maladjusted men who do it for kicks and are too out of shape to do anything other than plop a steel-jawed torture device in a field.
You are misinformed if you think only young university liberals are opposed to these. I’ve actually found that the most obnoxious third wave feminists, for example, couldn’t care less about cruelty to animals. That’s why you frequently see them wearing Canada Goose jackets.
#51 north shore on 02.27.20 at 5:23 pm
Exactly. I’m sure bear-baiting was lucrative to a lot of people in the Tudor era. I don’t think we want to bring that back.
“People never change. They think half the world will get this and countless millions die. But in Wuhan, a city of 11 million, there were (at most) 70,000 cases – .6% of folks. Deaths there have run at 0.02% of the population at large.” Not wishing to be pedantic but it’s safe to say that the virus has probably not run its course in Wuhan and the Chinese stats are typically ‘optimistic’. Let’s say it was actually double your figure at 0.04%. On a global population of 7.5bn that’s 3m folks. Not “countless” but considerable. A better number for comparison is the global baseline mortality rate which is 0.002% or 150,000 souls PER DAY
Can-a-da! Can-a-da! Can-a-da!
https://nationalpost.com/news/ubc-research-helps-fuel-potential-covid-19-treatment/wcm/a3b6d1d2-0548-4ba6-84e9-3606917d167a
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-treatment-co-created-by-ubc-researcher-begins-clinical-trial-1.4827835
People miss the point of days like these.
It’s not about a virus.
We’re being manipulated to be emotional.
To be fearful of each other.
An old tactic: divide and conquer.
The new world was taking a little long to arrive.
This is just a way to usher it in a little more quickly.
I don’t know who or what group/country is behind this, and don’t want to speculate. But it has been coordinated with precision, of that there’s no doubt.
But be assured, from a guy like me moving to cash, to a protestor blocking a rail line, to a Canadian from Alberta hoping to separate, to a prepper sitting smugly amongst their stash, to a university professor telling us we’re on stolen land, we’re all having our strings pulled.
Hysteria will be the result of mass manipulation.
Always is. Sadly, there’s not much we can do about it.
The Fourth Turning indeed.
Hey Dawgs, even dogs are coming down with Sars 2.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8053455/Patients-pet-Pomeranian-comes-disease-Hong-Kong.html
We’re doomed!
Not selling; hanging on with my pantry full of stock! :)
And as for this “technical glitch”…I have some HSD (bear S&P etf) as a short term hedge. Most of the daily gain on that would have occurred AFTER the glitch when the market really started to dive. Does this mean I won’t get any of that upside on my hedge? It’ll just open at the halted price tomorrow (if the TSX opens at all)? Canada is becoming such a joke.
No need to stock up on food.
Use Uber Eats and get home delivery from the grocery store.
We have a highly complex, globalized, just in time supply chain. It’s incredibly efficient, but not resilient.
We also have a highly complex, globalized, highly leveraged financial system. Efficient at maximising returns, but not resilient.
So what happens when you jamb a wrench into a single gear in a complex Rube Goldberg machine? Cornonavirus is a bag of wrenches.
This is history unfolding before hour eyes.
As corporate earnings reports / guidance comes out in the next few days months… Thanks to COVID-19…
– great Q4-2019
– Tail end of Q1-2020, post-CNY, shows supply chain issues starting
– Guidance on reduced demand (tourism, travel, discretionary spending) or ability to build things
– Cancelling of industry conferences (too bad for hotel stocks)
– Not looking great for merchants stocking up for Xmas season (eg. can’t get China factories online fast enough for September shipments)
So don’t expect a sustained bounce-back of stocks to January 2020 levels for a while…
#14 Guy in Calgary on 02.27.20 at 4:06 pm
Almost time to trim the bonds and top up the equities. Haven’t even looked at my accounts yet but may have to in order to re balance. Let’s see what the damage is.
—
what’s a good threshold to tactical rebalance? if you’re 60/40 and your equities drift to say 55?
What? Empty store shelves?
Nothing is more terrifying to a woman.
TSX having technical glitch is code for the TSX just fell off a cliff and we are now closed for the day.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Thursday that the Federal Reserve will not be able to stop the financial markets from freezing amid economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.
This is going to be nasty.
“I think very strongly that it probably is going to cause not just a recession in Canada, but a global recession,” the chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research and Associates told BNN Bloomberg Thursday.”
#42 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary
You do understand that not a single person on this planet believes those numbers. Leading scientist/doctors have said that it is at a minimum 10x and possibly 25x more dire then reported. I am not here to argue but it sure pisses me off people saying “oh get over it; it is only a flu”; it’s not! Hopefully it will not be as bad as people fear but already markets are reacting to it; people are reacting to it; better safe then not. Fill up the pantry; prepare for next flu season and if it does not pan out then we can all give generously to the food bank.
several letters lately about pref shares; so here goes with actual figures…Today!! Prefs (9000 of them) up $.91 on overall costs, paying 5.4%, oh! and very steady. Equities down 1.8%, so not so bad, going lower would suite me fine .
I think the stock market is reacting to Bernie’s success in the primaries more than the corona virus. Imagine what a socialist president might do to the US and thus the world economy! It would be much more devastating than a novel flu.
The biggest fear for most people in dealing with this virus might be that you have to stay home for 2-4 weeks. In that event your neighbors are a bigger threat than the bug:
https://www.activistpost.com/2020/02/costco-sells-out-of-emergency-food-kits-online-amidst-coronavirus-outbreak.html?utm_source=Activist+Post+Subscribers&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=3102209515-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_b0c7fb76bd-3102209515-388338759
So yes, stock up on that toilet paper!
To put the numbers being floated around right now of up to 10 million people dead, keep in mind that 60 million people die ever year so your risk of death hasn’t gone up all that much. More people die falling off their bicycle every weekend than have died from corona virus so far.
——————
Back to Nancy, it seems like her greatest mistake has been not to rebalance her portfolio periodically. Having a high exposure to just 4 stocks is risk especially since they are all in essentially the same sector. But I don’t know maybe Garth can weigh in on this, but just because they are off from their highs doesn’t mean rebalancing isn’t the right thing to do. Sure, Telsa is off the highs, but so are most ETF’s so I think it’s still a one for one type exchange. Maybe not quite as ideal as it would have been a couple weeks ago, but timing is hard.
I wish I had some cash lying around to buy some stuff.
Sadly, I spent the cash I had lying around buying investments last month.
Oh well. Market timing never works right?
Still, I know that the time to buy is coming soon or is here now.
So it goes…
I like Garth’s optimism.
But I think it’s a little premature to assume we will just “get over” this, like usual.
This looks like a pandemic. Probably has been for a while.
There are cases in all continents (that we know of). The virus seems to spread incredibly well between people. Mortality rates can change in an instant due to mutation. In fact, the cases in Iran appear to be more deadly than those elsewhere, so it looks to be happening already. More infections = more hosts = greater chance of mutation. Pandemics in the past have started slow and became worse as time goes on. Truth is we don’t know what we are dealing with yet. The fear is warranted. The caution welcome.
MF
BTW Garth,
I wanted to thank and applaud you for not using the term “domestic terrorist” anymore.
It’s been noted and appreciated. At least by me anyways.
Cheers!
If I recall correctly, didn’t the TSE shut down as well in the 1987 crash and blamed it on computerized trading (HFT)?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-thursday-1.5477966
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stock-market-crash-1987.asp
Could be worse though…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=117&v=SJUhlRoBL8M&feature=emb_logo
18 Lee on 02.27.20 at 4:14 pm
The government should be able to fix the supply chain within 3-4 weeks.
————————————————————
Lol, I gotta ask Lee, what makes you say this? Which government are you referring too? Just FYI a ship takes roughly 30 days from China to Canada..plus then however long it takes to distribute to the rest of the country. So even if a supply chain got interrupted for 4 weeks you still have to manufacture & ship, meaning we’d be two months minimum without whatever products we’re talking about. Im not a doomer by any means but Im just curious why you made that comment.
should read value up $.91 on overall cost, in other words a profit, albeit small.
#10 – Howard, your misogyny is showing. Better sort that out. Sad truth is Ontarians of all genders voted for him, dog only knows why.
16M people get the regular flu in the US every year and 18,000 die from complications from it. This nowhere near those levels. Some perspective is in order. MSM is feeding the hysteria 24-7.
But trying to buy the bottom of the S&P is getting nerve wracking.
Garth forgot to mention the probable 65c loonie after the BoC cuts rates.
This ‘pandemic’ is a front for a worldwide economic collapse. They need an economic collapse that can be blamed on anything other than the real cause so that they can rebuild the same system again afterwards with no-one being the wiser. The truth is that the whole economic / monetary system was doomed to ultimately collapse right from it’s inception; that always the ultimate fate of a debt-based currency and they knew it. The people, of course, are to be led to believe that the virus (or perhaps WW3 or some other disaster) was the sole cause of the economic collapse, thereby allowing the bankers to rebuild the same system of usury and start the whole sham over again, likely as a cash-less society because cash handling between people is too dangerous in terms of illness transmission don’t-cha-kno.
Garth, do not agree with your assessment on this one. Incremental infection numbers are going down in China because they have severely limited social contact to slow down spread. Of course that affects the economy locally and supply chains globally. Now the rest of the world has the choice- have exponential growth of infection or shut down economy and social activities. For the last month infection spread outside of China has been exponential, and that is based on official numbers reported by world governments. You know what exponential growth does given enough time. Except in this case we do not need much time to really feel it as doubling time is estimated to be around 2.4 days by epidemiologists. The real issue is that 20% of infected people get pneumonia. And pneumonia requires medical treatment. And no country has capacity to treat pneumonia in many thousands of patients. And without treatment (i.e. oxygen at elevated partial pressure) pneumonia patients turn blue and suffocate. So when hospital system gets overrun with pneumonia patients really bad things start to happen. This is why this deserves much more serious attention that your post suggest. Please take a pause and think about this one. One month from now your post will look strange to you when you re-read it. Your statements are contrary to what infection models are predicting. One of the published models suggests 60% of the world population infected in the first year. Those guys who built that model have done their homework. You, with all respect, have not.
So go ahead and panic. See how that works out. – Garth
Everybody worries about pandemic being bad for economy and investments. But as a somewhat callous and ghoulish thought experiment, couldn’t you make a case for opposite effect?
Let’s play devil’s advocate for a moment and imagine the scenario where the whole world does get infected with something having a low single digit percentage mortality rate, so tens of millions die.
That’s death toll comparable to WWII and what happened to world economy after that?
Yes, the initial response is to panic, hunker down and stock up. (And frenzied stocking up will stimulate some parts of economy too.)
But at some point, won’t a sort of desperate feast-during-the-plague mood set in? “Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die” kind of vibe?
Once they see the plague wagons come by the neighbourhood to pick up the bodies, I bet many people’s attitudes will switch.
I bet even the most hardened savers here, the kind who pleasure themselves at the sight of their account statements, will reach that breaking point.
The point when we collectively say: “What’s the point? Could be me on the plague wagon next week. Let’s party and spend like there is no tomorrow! Cause maybe there isn’t for me…” And that ought to be hugely stimulative
consumer protection agency….mitch opposed! 2011
…”It is impossible to buy a toaster that has a one-in-five chance of bursting into flames and burning down your house. But it is possible to refinance an existing home with a mortgage that has the same one-in-five chance of putting the family out on the street–and the mortgage won’t even carry a disclosure of that fact to the homeowner. Similarly, it’s impossible to change the price on a toaster once it has been purchased. But long after the papers have been signed, it is possible to triple the price of the credit used to finance the purchase of that appliance, even if the customer meets all the credit terms, in full and on time. Why are consumers safe when they purchase tangible consumer products with cash, but when they sign up for routine financial products like mortgages and credit cards they are left at the mercy of their creditors?”
https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/5/unsafe-at-any-rate/
Features
Unsafe at Any Rate
If it’s good enough for microwaves, it’s good enough for mortgages. Why we need a Financial Product Safety Commission.
By Elizabeth Warren from Summer 2007, No. 5
north shore: If the petition was signed and if your friend’s father lost his job he probably would go on to find a new job.
pretty funny – if you’re a trapper and one day you find it’s not worth it, there’s nobody there to inform you, you’re laid off
Howard: Leg-hold traps are sadistic, barbaric, and banned in 90 countries and about a dozen US states (so far). They are often utilized by maladjusted men who do it for kicks and are too out of shape to do anything other than plop a steel-jawed torture device in a field.
pretty funny. I don’t know any maladjusted men who trap for kicks. I can say that the father was a tough, hard man who found what work he could to support his family.
#51 north shore on 02.27.20 at 5:23 pm
Seriously? Leg traps? If the petition was signed and if your friend’s father lost his job he probably would go on to find a new job. The question still stands, do you think he has a right to inflict pain and death onto another animal?
———————————–
Yes, with a legal trapping license, he did indeed have a lawful right to inflict death on animals, which often involves pain. Still does, for that matter, if he’s still trapping.
You and I have the same right. Anyone trying to stop us would be committing a crime.
Does that answer your question?
I thought about starting a gofundme for my investments but………probably a first world problem. I went 1/3 to cash last week. The rest will give up a large portion of last year’s gains and then quickly earn them back. These are interesting times but experience tells me we will all look back and wonder what all of the fuss was.
Question: if yields are down and prices are up for bonds, why do my bond ETFs keep staying flat or dropping? XQB. Is it that there is so much exodus that capital is fleeing the bond market too?
#49 JaquesShellaque. No kidding. Trust funders in the PMO. Never had to work. Setting policy. Giving advice. Took a class in Indigenous Studies concocted by some Marxists who rewrote Canadian history. Really have in mind the welfare of the poor slugs trying to find a way home from work around barricades of the entitled who do not work. They will capitulate in short order. The playbook is set. Next week a new set of hands holding out for more, or we block the tracks, block the highways, block the ports. Who pays? On and on. Who pays? Defenders of the middle class. Pathetic.
36 tkid on 02.27.20 at 4:56 pm
Garth, speaking hypothetically, if one had sold a chunk of one’s portfolio before the losses began, when should you buy back in?
————————————————————————————————
The stock answer is you never sell.
Pretty soon a well known high level politician or perhaps a Famous person will die…this will shock the markets
At this juncture….usually MF and Phartzy have dispensed their usual 2 cents(CAD)
So Far So good…
Markets have sold off 5 days now into correction as the good news of Q4 season is over leaving the markets with the attention span of a Gnat to price in Corona. It was predictable. I’ve made plenty of poor predictions in my lifetime and will make more but this one was easy. The market lesson here is, “a virus doesn’t have to kill many people, all it has to do is kill consumption”. That was the lesson from China and now it’s going global. Trump said as of the night before last “the Flu has killed way more people than Carona virus” (as he spells it). Obviously, he didn’t get it but as more cities and borders shut down, possibly in the states, he will.
The born optimist might say, “a vaccine is coming” or “it’s all hype, the numbers are small” but logic dictates that humanity hasn’t developed a vaccine for any Corona virus much less this one which could take a year or more and the numbers will only go viral in the meantime. (there is hope for one though, I’ll get to it later)
As COVID-19 spreads, more cities and borders get locked down. What choice do governments have? Quarantines work and to not use them is to invite a far worse disruption. Where nations are popping off like South Korea, Italy and Iran, it’s no longer business as usual, nor should it be. Imagine the spread of COVID-19 if China hadn’t reacted to this virus the way it did. Even with this unprecedented response, it looks like this is going global. The CDC is saying it will, if anyone would know. The reported Case Fatality Rate or CFR is 3.4% now with still more than half of those infected classified as sick with 18% of this half classified as serious or critical. Of the reported numbers, get ready for something closer to 7 to 8%.
If I’m not mistaken, 2,817 dead divided into 82, 787 cases is a 3.4% CFR rate. Not quite half of the near 83K have had a conclusion (got well or died), 8,472 of the rest of the still infected are in serious or critical condition meaning this virus is a killer. 1 in 5 will get seriously ill and likely…. I say likely 4% of the infected world population will die. How big a number of infected will depend on global response, vaccines and mutations and what’s that? Grab a grip? More people die from herpes or mono? Even with with 3 or 4 more zero’s these numbers aren’t sexy?
Once again, the market lesson is, “a virus doesn’t have to kill many people, all it has to do is kill consumption”. For governments to not take it seriously though, this virus has the potential to kill in large numbers. That’s the point. People who think otherwise have not thought it through. What the economic response will be from governments is the least of our problems. Its the poor responses of governments world wide who don’t react to the virus itself that we should worry about, but I wander.
Where will the CFR end up? 7… 8% of reported, 4% actual? Models will guess and I do mean guess anywhere from 1 to 4% depending on which Chinese fortune cookie formula they choose and who pays them. Listen to the language. The unreported cases of those who show mild symptoms or are asymptomatic for example… is there one proven example of an asymptomatic case for CV? Well? Is there? It’s being thrown around without proof. Great for modellers who like clients who want to calm the markets. The polite term is for it is “reparative indemnification” or white and necessary mistruths to lessen the overall damage, we must not over react in costly fashion and so forth, after all. The more truthful term is Frankenstein numbers. Lets look at that claim more closely.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Most certainly these numbers are under reported including those who have gotten sick and recovered in their own homes including people who have died at home from the virus most likely in Wuhan but to what extent? What if we turned a corner regardless a week ago or more? What if…. just if… the numbers out of China are in the ball park and they’ve turned the corner on this thing?
Lets assume for a second that provincial and central governments there have not executed directives to cook the numbers and purposely under report cases of infected that are mild including the dead that are being cremated with no official causes of death and no family funerals. It’s an if/then. If China has kept this thing under control with something other than cooking numbers, for one it throws the asymptomatic spread of Corona with people that will never show symptoms right out the window. It becomes fake news and conjecture pumped into and from the market that wants to change the channel, diminishing how serious a virus it really is. It would also mean that China has contained this virus with something other than draconian quarantine and are doing some thing very well here and the world needs to pay attention.
I really mean it, have I got your attention? If there’s a reason why China has turned a corner and and I believe they have, its not just quarantines but diagnostics. Bear with me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew
With virus’s, its all about the numbers, but there is also an obvious human side to it. The video link above offers the human side but what comes with it is what is happening on the ground level with diagnostics in China which Matt gets to around 4:20 and that’s part of the reason for this blog’s sometime contextual incipient existence, is it not?
The gist of it is this. Most everyone in China has a cel phone. Each person is categorized by an app on their phone. Each person is given a code that links to government access and monitoring into 3 categories for the virus.
Green = free of virus or suspected virus, other than orange or red, free to travel, not restricted.
Orange = with fever or resperatory problems, or within contact of someone with Corona Virus (CV). People orange are restricted to a 7 day quarantine. (note, takes 7 to 8 days for CV to worsen)
Red = includes confirmed and suspected cases, or from hard hit areas of infection (province of Hubei) and are subject to an automatic 14 day self quarantine. Do not pass, go straight home.
We’ve likely seen people standing outside of stores and access entrances taking everyone’s temperature n videos coming out of China. Retailers scanning temps before you enter the store or factory or subway etc. . If you pass, you are green if you have a temperature, you turn orange on the app and are sent home and someone tests you there later. The app has a GPS telling you where all other confirmed cases of CV are in China. Think about that for a moment. If you get infected, everyone knows where you are (or where your phone is).
On the surface, having an app like this on your phone with sensitive data like this is a complete invasion of privacy. Imagine for a moment, what the response like this would be in the U.S. or even here in Canada. The levels of discrimination toward those who are sick… with an app like this everyone knows where you are, again, think about that for a moment. The levels of discrimination, the law suits, what it would take for the government in the U.S. or Canada to implement something like this if they could or were bold enough to try (think war measures act) and yet… Chinese numbers are falling. Is it because of the disease prevention tactics that are being practiced in China?
The world has been led to believe that people who are infected can be asymptomatic and still spread the virus but to what extent? What is the likelihood? CT scans show pneumonia in the lungs before some people show symptoms. People can run a low level temp without knowing they are sick. Again, it comes down to numbers and in this case, it’s viral load. As the incubation period lengthens, the chance of spreading infection goes up but to what extent before showing symptoms?
Again… if these numbers are in the ball park coming out of China or try to justify them, we need take a strong long hard look as to why. There is a justifiable reason for it, its just not yet clinically proven.
I believe there is a good chance I’m right, yes and that if this is proven to work inside China over the next couple months in keeping these numbers down, if these numbers can be trusted and there is reason to believe now that its the case, this would need to be the standard practice throughout the world in keeping a lid on this thing, while allowing people to get back to work if the numbers go south until we can find a working vaccine which could prove difficult. There are too many unknowns to say it won’t be. There is no current vaccine for any Corona Virus. It’s RNA negative meaning it has a likelihood for mutation. CV is a virus that could mutate in response to mass vaccines making the vaccine more virile and less effective if we rush a vaccine to market too quickly, we just don’t know but there is hope for vaccines:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGhwAGiAnJo
7 minutes on in the video above, Eco Health Alliance took specimens from bats in Borneo 3 years ago and collected 400 different strains of Corona virus from Bats. They also found bat human crossovers from human blood samples in people living close by in rural areas to these bat colonies. They compared COVID-19 to the 400 strains they had collected and found an extremely close match meaning COVID-19 could have come directly to humans from bats. These Corona virus’s are actively spilling over into the human population. It could just be that a working vaccine is within the bat colonies themselves:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EcoHealth_Alliance
@#18 Lee
“The government should be able to fix the supply chain within 3-4 weeks”
++++
Bwahahaha!
THIS Canadian govt?
In your dreams.
They’ve been dithering for 3 weeks on how to deal with a handful of protesters sitting ON the “supply chain”……
#70 The Wet One on 02.27.20 at 6:22 pm
BTW Garth,
I wanted to thank and applaud you for not using the term “domestic terrorist” anymore.
It’s been noted and appreciated. At least by me anyways.
Cheers!
—————————-
Stick a cork in it, you sanctimonious jackass.
@#51 north shore
“The question still stands, do you think he has a right to inflict pain and death onto another animal?”
++++
Dont be such a hypocrite.
Ever been to a slaughterhouse?
If its a pig, chicken or cow…..and it was slaughtered for your consumption…..I’m pretty sure pain and death were involved.
As Homer Simpson once observed,
” Mmmmmm, Sausage, ham and bacon……allll from one magical animal…..”
More peril developing in Syria – Turkey decides to inject itself in the Syrian civil war by joining forces with designated terrorists, gets bombed by Russia and then goes howling in outrage to NATO.
This is far more dangerous than the TSX failing and a glorified flu.
So go ahead and panic. See how that works out. – Garth
Garth, there are many shades between being ignorant and panicking. I did not ask you to panic, I merely suggested that you learn about the subject that you are making comments about because I believe you are less educated presently on this one than many other topics on which your wisdom is greatly appreciated.
There is no reason for you to be defensive about this. Many past scares were correctly dismissed and you got used to it. This, unfortunately, is not like any past scares unless you go further than 100 years in history.
And it not all bad news. There are at least three good news that I can single out:
1. while this virus is hugely infectious and stealthy, it is not as lethal as other recent viruses like SARS and MERS. So it could have been much much worse.
2. infants and kids are spared. So far it looks like they do not pick it up as easily and when they do it is pretty much universally mild.
3. Whether one believes Chinese numbers or not, I do not think there is any doubt that China has shown that this thing can be dealt with, albeit at huge cost to society and economy.
But you cannot ignore that cost when you look at China’s success and dismiss it as a non-event. We have to pay unprecedented price for slowing down this infection. Or we have to pay the other price if we choose not to slow it down, like for example Iran is doing.
This is a major disruption and it is far from its peak yet.
Duck Dynasty’s Phil Robertson: I don’t need health care because I have “eternal health care. I’m guaranteed to be raised from the dead. I have life and immortality given to me by God through Jesus Christ.” https://t.co/2qLGNrIGW5 pic.twitter.com/TngkyOoSxB
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronavirus-pence.html
Pence Will Control All Coronavirus
Messaging From Health Officials
The New York Times
6 hours ago
Trump’s coronavirus
conflict: Science vs.politics
Re: trapping
In high school, my friend had a wonderful rabbit-hunting beagle named Red. Red would sometimes disappear into the woods and we’d eventually wander out to the cedar swamp to see if he was chasing the rabbits.
The last time we went to look for Red, we found him dead in a Conibear 220 body-lock trap, set for raccoons (in an illegal dryland set, when larger bodylocks were only allowed in water sets).
Trappers are required to tag their traps, and this one was tagged with the name of our high school biology teacher. My buddy brought the trap to school, dropped it on the teacher’s desk in front of the entire class, said, ‘you killed my dog in your illegal set’, and walked out of class.
Awkward.
My buddy never attended another biology class; he received an A in the class and a new beagle pup the next summer.
Sorry Garth, this is not the normal flu for 2 reasons:
1) The incubation period pre-symptom is believed to be 27 days. For nearly a month you can be transmitting it before even having symptoms;
2) Covid-19 can be transmitted by aerosol (sneezing or coughing) making it highly transmittable.
3) Unlike the seasonal flu, Covid-19 has shut down major manufacturing in China. A single critical part from a Chinese factory halts production of everything from Toyota’s to iPhone’s. This is the issue.
It will come to pass, but the effect will be far reaching on the global economy. Christ Martenson has the best information I’ve found, as he compiles from a variety of sources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr1AkRtIHX4
For those who follow that Catholic faith; I respect all faiths; unfortunately this not look good; what are your thoughts?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8051083/Pope-cancels-visit-Rome-priests-slight-illness.html
#69 MF
Mortality rates can change in an instant due to mutation. In fact, the cases in Iran appear to be more deadly than those elsewhere, so it looks to be happening already.
*********************************
I highly doubt that the virus has already changed to become more deadly. Cases in Iran more likely to be an indication of mortality in a country with less developed medical infrastructure, lack of antiviral drugs and medical professionals
#80 Sail away
I’m not saying what he’s doing is illegal. What I am saying is that its inhumane and we would all be a lot better in this world if it stops.
#70 The Wet One
Not by any of us around here; get over it; if the so called “white man” did not arrive (which, many countries would have) you would have been ruled by Russians,Chinese,Japanese, or Germans; any chance that you would have been treated as well as you are now? Seriously???????????????? Enough already its 2020 not 1820!!
I tend to agree with Garth’s logic on his Covid-19 analysis. Here is a nice site that compiles world statistics from reputable sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/
At the time of this post there are 2,858 Covid-19 deaths, and 77,805 seasonal flu deaths thus far this year. Deaths caused by smoking – 800,793 thus far this year. Car accident deaths – 216,247 so far in 2020. Deaths of mothers during childbirth – 49,517 this year.
I think one has to be critical of how the 2.5% Covid-19 death rate published in some articles is computed. There are indications that many people who contract Covid-19 have no symptoms or have reduced issues, and many are probably not included in the overall statistics.
The bottom line is we are making a lot of assumptions on minimal and incomplete data. There are assumptions that the Covid-19 death rate will skyrocket. I think more data is required before I would change my mind and agree with this hypothesis.
Did you read it?
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/epidemiologist-warns-of-major-coronavirus-outbreak-contradicting-trump-1.5478081
****It is particularly alarming than now all coronavirus info has to pass through the office of the Vice President to be released to the public.
Just like they do in China.
What’s not to trust?
PREPARE
In contrast to this real estate never falls. It only rises. Ppl are bidding like crazy. No Coronavirus fear
#76 not 1st
16M people get the regular flu in the US every year and 18,000 die from complications from it. This nowhere near those levels. Some perspective is in order. MSM is feeding the hysteria 24-7.
*********************************
You are forgetting a couple of items when comparing to flu:
a. 16M people are getting annually infected in US (numbers I saw are about 50% higher but lets use yours, same order of magnitude) given free available vaccine
b. you haven’t yet seen the spread in US to make any comparison, lets hope we will be talking only theoretically some months from now
c. So far mortality rate of those infected with corona is ~25 times higher than flu (based on the incomplete numbers available right now)
President Trump has put Veep Pence on the job. Let us join the Veep and Mother in conference room 2 for a prayer meeting.
#82 Sail away
Leg-hold traps are barbaric and totally unnecessary in today’s world. I’m am not opposed to hunting or ranching, but I do believe animals have the right to a swift and as painless as possible end to their lives when we harvest them.
This is partly why I think the ban on semi-automatic hunting riffles is cruel. If you don’t get the animal in one shot but you do hit it, now you have to chase it through the forest while it bleeds out. Cruelness factor much higher than being able to fire 3 shots in succession.
Deaths there have run at 0.02% of the population at large.
————————————————
What population are you talking about?
Because the mortality rate of the confirmed cases is about 2-3% so far. It may change.
To put that in perspective, the flu has about a .1% mortality rate. So Covid 19 is 20-30 times more deadly. How it shakes out, nobody knows. But it certainly has the potential to dramatically effect the world economy.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn
As stated, in the epicentre city of the virus, population 11 million, 0.02% of people have died. The big impact of this thing is economic disruption, not death. – Garth
#87 Dave
“Pretty soon a well known high level politician or perhaps a Famous person will die…this will shock the markets”
If it’s the ill guy who recently met Iran’s dead ambassador to the Vatican…ya that would do it.
Instead of stocking up supplies, I would be more concerned about shared space as in condos and apartments such as elevators, lobbies and even stairwells when the Covid-19 hits the big cities.
Houses would be much safer.
Perhaps a correction in condo prices as people sell and buy detached?
Just remember…
WWSMD?
What would Smoking Man Do?
The big impact of this thing is economic disruption, not death. – Garth
——————————
So far. And I surely hope it remains that way – probably you too.
It’s weird when some comments are substantially longer than the original article.
#98 north shore on 02.27.20 at 7:35 pm
#80 Sail away
I’m not saying what he’s doing is illegal. What I am saying is that its inhumane and we would all be a lot better in this world if it stops.
——————————-
You’re not speaking for those who feed their families through trapping, obviously.
Slightly off-topic, but have you ever seen a pack of wolves take down a moose (or a cow)? After severing the hamstrings, the pack rips open its belly and begin munching on the internals while the moose or cow lays there watching it happen, slowly dying through blood loss.
Would the world also be better if that stopped?
Speaking as someone who used to trap and snare fur bearing animals for extra money as a teenager (and not at all proud of it) I am strongly in favour of banning leg hold traps and snares. They are cruel, and I’ve seen the results up close, and still carry the guilt.
The last animal I trapped was a mink in 1985. His leg bone was shattered and sticking out of his leg when I got home from school and went to check my trap. I had to kill him with a stick. I got $25 for his pelt. Blood money. That was it for me. I never set another trap. It haunted me for… Well it still haunts me. I’m not exaggerating when I tell you it is difficult to write this because conjures up bad emotions I’d rather not deal with. I don’t know why that one in particular bothered me when the other animals I caught before had not, but that one really did it for me. I can honestly say I’ve made an effort since then to to outbid my way to be kind to animals, and I believe the guilt over that mink has a lot to do with that.
I apologize for the graphic description of an injured animal, but I wanted to weigh in on something that I’m far too familiar with, and feel strongly about. Just because I had a Manitoba trapping licence doesn’t mean it was moral or right. It wasn’t. And as long as Canada allows such practices to continue, we are not as civilized and compassionate as we should be. It is a failing on our part. We need to demand better from ourselves.
@#88 At Least be Lost
“So Far So good…”
++++
Glad I could rain on your parade… :)-
#78 Dmitry on 02.27.20 at 6:34 pm
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
If you look at the provincial numbers or have followed them for a while like I have, you will note that they’ve all tapered off. It’s either a government directive to under report in an effort to get everyone back to work with the hope that clusters won’t survive in large enough numbers past summer into next winter to get a better hold on things, or its what I’ve already talked about. The screening for temperatures and the cel phone app they are using to identify and keep track of sick/infected people since Feb 10th or earlier is working.
At first, I believed it was Frankenstein numbers out of China and early on, it likely was the case but now…. the diagnostic temp checks China is using in conjunction with the nation wide phone app since Feb 10th is a compelling case for why these numbers are going down not just because of draconian measures in Hubei, but in every other province.
Currently there are 5 provinces with a thousand or more cases in China. These numbers haven’t budged much in the last 2 weeks and they should have popped off so its either the numbers are cooked for economical reasons, or China has found a way through diagnostics body temp readings of China’s people everywhere and keeping tabs on its people through it’s app. I believe the latter meaning they’ve turned a corner on this. The Chinese are a highly industrious people, lets give them credit. PISA scores cut to the marrow, China is educated. Japan and South Korea as well and look at Singapore and Estonia!:
https://www.statista.com/chart/7104/pisa-top-rated-countries-regions-2016/
Again, the Chinese app and diagnostics I talked about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew
Market reactions, who knows. We’ll likely see a bear but just bearly (just guessing here) and it will make for a good buying opportunity when it comes. Some time in May, the numbers will pick up with UV’s that fry this virus’s existence, there’s always a silver lining. There will be a surge of pent up demand from this but for the U.S. market in particular, if some clusters break out there… the markets have every right to be nervous right now. Commodities are tanking. The only thing doing well is precious metals. Inflation could even hit in Q4 if there’s enough businesses in trouble in Asia, even here. Something tells me May numbers will be off in the U.S., stuff no one is expecting, the summer should be better logically though, again a good short term buying opportunity.
Going into the Q4 however… I’m not so optimistic. We could also see some inflation come forward in Q4 from Corona so take that for what its worth. World GDP will be flat this year, close to zero… but there could be some really good things come out of all this on the human side. Nations forced to and recognizing the need to work together more closely, to share for the greater good, recognizing the interconnection of our economies, our humanity, we’ve been too competitive to notice it think up til’ now. We could use a good shot of international unity going forward, an enemy that isn’t human, one we can’t see that unites us as a world people at least, for a time. Perhaps I’m being optimistic, we shall see!
@#113 peppercorn…..emulsion
“It’s weird when some comments are substantially longer than the original article.”
+++
yeah, Crazyfox is a founding member of the Babylon Society….he was beaten with a thesaurus as a child.
Sad.
However, that being said… your name is longer than your comment….quite an impressive feat!
By the way…
I haven’t read the comment section in a long, long time.
So, what happened to Smoking Man?
#92 crowdedelevatorfartz
I’m not a hypocrite. I’m a vegan.
I read an article today that up to half a million Brits could die from Corona virus.
Half a million people.
Multiply that by 100X and you have the number of people killed in the last century from Socialism.
OK, Bernie Bros?
#114 Sail away
The wolves you speak of are carnivores, that hunter is not.
#115 Raging Ranter
There is a big difference in people trapping or shooting animals for eating then there is for sport.
I have absolutely no problem people (indigenous) communities filling up their freezers to sustain themselves.
The other day I read a post that an individual/s were supporting themselves on $800 per month by growing there own garden and perhaps hunting. What is wrong with that??
Garth is always teaching us to prepare for the future; yet this individual has maintained to do so and was ridiculed for it?? I just do not understand that mindset; this individual/s should be applauded for it.
Hey, I am drinking; I say, prepare but what do I know?
#114 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 7:59 pm
#98 north shore on 02.27.20 at 7:35 pm
#80 Sail away
I’m not saying what he’s doing is illegal. What I am saying is that its inhumane and we would all be a lot better in this world if it stops.
——————————-
You’re not speaking for those who feed their families through trapping, obviously.
——————————————
By that logic we should bring back bear baiting or the Roman coliseum animal bloodbaths. They surely made people money too. Public hangings were big spectacles in the UK before they were abolished in the mid 19th century and were a lucrative occasion for nearby tavern owners and merchants.
Nobody is going to go hungry in Canada for lack of trapping. Society evolves. Trapping is banned in some 90 countries and deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history just like other sadistic, evil practices humans partook in centuries past. No reasonable person objects to deer hunters making quick, clean kills and consuming the meat. That deer had a better life and quicker death than any farm animal. Trapping is something very different.
I will say though that the primary culprit here are the legions of urban ignoramuses paying top dollar for those ugly fur trimmed coats. But I’m seeing far fewer of them than I did 5 years ago, fashion cycles being what they are.
This is likely a made in china problem due to lack of first world health standards. We will see what happens when it comes into contact with US first world type response.
My bet is it is halted in the US with a handful of deaths. Retroviral therapy can stop HIV in its tracks and that’s mutated millions of times in the past 30 yrs, flu should be no problem for it.
As the Japanese say, “Zannen, ne. Shoganai.”
It’s, Zannen desu ne. Stop showing off what you don’t know. Wakarimasu ka?
As stated, in the epicentre city of the virus, population 11 million, 0.02% of people have died. The big impact of this thing is economic disruption, not death. – Garth
Garth, the big impact is that we are forced to choose between ongoing economic disruption and death. China chose economic disruption and kept death to minimum so far. The rest of the world is coming to terms with this choice now.
If you want to do meaningful math on Wuhan then look at how many people in Wuhan are presumably immune to the virus as the percentage of population. Then it will become obvious that restarting economy will bring back death because so few people are immune.
And there will be many deaths in many places in any case, especially with less capable healthcare systems. Places like Africa come to mind. It is not an event that numbers like 0.02% are relevant for.
You know how stubborn the ill informed folks are who ignore your advice on house ownership, debt, panic selling, etc. Strangely this time you get to experience what it is like to be in their shoes.
P.S. there were some bad decisions made in Toronto over the last week. You will see results of that next week, or the week after at the latest.
#115 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 8:05 pm
————————–
It’s nice to live in a society where we have the luxury to have others kill for our benefit, to avoid the personal guilt.
Growing up poor and rural, when our dogs got old, we shot them ourselves.
Guilt comes with living.
#120 Howard
I disagree with your comment. Would you rather live a great life and die at 20 or have a miserable life and die at 5? Maybe we should ask the animal what they want. Also does the hunter really need to go out and kill an animal? Couldn’t he just grow some crops instead
#56 Attrition on 02.27.20 at 5:44 pm
I don’t know who or what group/country is behind this, and don’t want to speculate. But it has been coordinated with precision, of that there’s no doubt.”
Most like the Bilderberg Conference. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_meeting
Basically a bunch of rebadged Habsburgs.
I smell a Davinci Code style Tom Hanks movie coming from this virus.
@#120 north bore
“I’m a vegan.”
++++
Now I understand.
Your beliefs trump all others.
Oh and never mind boring old carnivores….check the definition of “omnivore”.
Most humans fall into that category.
Which means…..in a pinch….some of us will even EAT a vegan……if we’re hungry enough and can stand the premeal conversation……
And it will probably hurt the whole time they are cooking.
I think Garth is correct, given what I learned in the fall of 2018. Don’t sell anything at this stage, and perhaps wait a few weeks/month to then put more $$$ into the market when it gets lower. I think it will get worse before it gets better, but there may be some good buying opportunites. However, it certainly sucks for those people who need to cash out of the stock market now to complete a house purchase etc….
What is shocking to me is how the market can be down by 10% within 4–5 trading sessions. Does give me so much confidence that this is not being manipulated…
#124 Howard on 02.27.20 at 8:27 pm
#114 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 7:59 pm
#98 north shore on 02.27.20 at 7:35 pm
I’m not saying what he’s doing is illegal. What I am saying is that its inhumane and we would all be a lot better in this world if it stops.
—————————-
You’re not speaking for those who feed their families through trapping, obviously.
—————————-
By that logic we should bring back bear baiting or the Roman coliseum animal bloodbaths. They surely made people money too.
—————————-
It’s not logic, it’s a statement.
If somebody is doing something legal and upright, they have every right to do it.
If you feel a moral imperative to stop that activity, you have every right to do everything within your power to change the law.
However, denigrating or shaming any person who is legally acting fully within their rights is a step too far. Your moral imperative does not outweigh their legal right.
Steve French from Australia here.
My balanced, globally-diversified, fully-liquid, self-managed, low-fee, Garth-Approved (TM) ETF portfolio is currently down 6.3% from my all-time peak last Friday.
I’m not panicking.
‘Tis but a flesh wound.
OK, it stings a bit….
What is shocking to me is how the market can be down by 10% within 4–5 trading sessions.- yvr_lurker
IMHO if we see another thousand plus down day on the American exchanges, it means the big boys have shown up to sell, in that case it could be a lot like 2008.
#131 crowdedelevatorfartz
Never have I said that my beliefs trump all others.
What’s this “pinch” you speak of, and why wouldn’t all your omnivore friends dive into eating a vegan? besides
the premeal conversation putting them off
Buying opportunity, Nancy, once the bottom is hit.
“we sign in to every location we visit via an app so potential outbreaks could be tracked quickly.” (from the fellow living in China). Good idea!
Amusing photo, Mr. T.
#132 yvr_lurker
Education and reading between the lines will offer you the best results. Good luck dawg!
Heard today (on BBC ? can’t recall) that Trump is disallowing $70 million slated to go to CDC.
20 FS – I dont have his orchestral suites. Got symphonies, concertos and other orchestral pieces.
Which recording do you have?
http://www.arkivmusic.com/classical/Drilldown?name_id1=11958&name_role1=1&genre=55&bcorder=19&comp_id=12424
Running through a bit of quantitative analysis here, my charting is showing a positive correlation between rising R0 numbers, and %age market decline. My current forecast is that when compared with Mers, Sars this is much more serious and will result in a 50% market correction.
The R0 is the “reproduction number” and gives the number of people that every infected person could infect. WHO has estimated that the current R0 for the coronavirus is likely to be 2.6, meaning every person infected could infect up to three others.
I have a great fur cap. Racoon. Warm like nothing else in -58F. 100% natural. 100% bio-degradeable. 100% renewable. 100% sustainable. But according to millenials, I’m a dirt lump.
And yet Greta wears oil and gas sourced Gore-tex undies and you think she’s an enviro-deity.
This leads to the question: Are you smarter now than you were at 12 years old? If so, do you think that you stop getting smarter at 28? Or how about 45? When exactly do you stop getting smarter?
Young voters are dumb voters. And that’s not a knock against them. We were all young and dumb once. But we got over ourselves.
Not certain what perspective this must have for some readers, but here it goes.
It just occurred to me that in 2009, I purchased my 1995 Porsche 911 ( a 993) from a major Real estate mogul who should have known better. My business was doing well. He sold into a storm, I bought out of simple wanting it. I drove it daily…it went up 120% over the years. Total luck on my part.
Similar things to consider with this market strategy as many bright blog dogs note here this evening.
The virus is serious noise, but too late…time to buy shortly back into market is Now. Hurry! As our friend living in China noted , ground zero is responsibly returning to normal; what further signs do you want to hear?
For example: Watch price of gas over next few days fall lower!
Your ETFs will be doing this (we hope).
Amazing wordsmith Garth. Great balance and exploration of fact! As always.
It’s nice to live in a society where we have the luxury to have others kill for our benefit, to avoid the personal guilt.
Growing up poor and rural, when our dogs got old, we shot them ourselves.
Guilt comes with living.
I’m not asking anyone to trap anything in a leg hold trap for me. Ever. Putting an old sick animal down with a bullet is a necessary act of compassion on the farm. Any other non sequiters? You’re far better at pretending to be a wealthy stock picker than making an informed argument. You should get back to that.
Thanks to everybody who provided answers to my question on their “retirement number”. They were all quite large though. Any bloggers getting by on less?
I’ll get a good CPP, wife maybe half of the max. Hope to retire ASAP (ie before 65)
Decent house. No debts. No plans to leave Canada. Smaller town but not isolated.
@#115, RagingRanter
Thanks for sharing. Guilt feels lousy, but it means you have empathy. And you are paying back through your interactions with other animals, so feel good about that.
#129 North shore
Seriously?? Go talk to the native bands around you and get educated snowflake; wow, just wow; how ignorant! “A” typical; please do not vote people like that dawgs; if, so, the rest of us move out of country and let them support themselves; should be fun watching from afar!
What a fricken naive joke!Did you drive today, did you take transit to the sea ferry did you wave off all the cruise ships,did you give thanks to all the hard workers on the ports and maneuvering the ships, have you flown to other destinations, look around you with what has not been been made with fossil fuels, how about heating, your dams were created by?? how were they built; better not say with hand shovels and slave labor; that would be everything you stand for hypocrite, wake up joker!!!!!!!!!!!!
I must add.
Your ETF’s will be rebalancing and making the best advantages of buying into this new market For You.
And before the sizeable return to normal, plus the timely market gains.
Not going down like Gas prices…..
Tonight in particular I really wish Sail Away would.
#126 Tobihiro Tojo on 02.27.20 at 8:31 pm
As the Japanese say, “Zannen, ne. Shoganai.”
It’s, Zannen desu ne. Stop showing off what you don’t know. Wakarimasu ka?
Is it now?
Maybe if you’re script writing for a cliche samurai drama. If you spoke Japanese, you’d know that adding ‘desu ne’ isn’t common in casual speech. Wasn’t trying to be formal, a$$. I’m guessing you used to be or still are an English ‘teacher’?
If you’re in a nitpicking mood, I guess you’d prefer 残念な。仕方がない
Whatevs. Either way, we’re screwed. Perhaps you more than most, tho.
#144 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 10:09 pm
I’m not asking anyone to trap anything in a leg hold trap for me. Ever. Putting an old sick animal down with a bullet is a necessary act of compassion on the farm. Any other non sequiters? You’re far better at pretending to be a wealthy stock picker than making an informed argument. You should get back to that.
————————————-
Actually, I was agreeing with you. I have similar guilt from shooting my best pals, old though they may have been. Nobody escapes guilt in life.
conan on 02.27.20 at 9:05 pm
What is shocking to me is how the market can be down by 10% within 4–5 trading sessions.- yvr_lurker
IMHO if we see another thousand plus down day on the American exchanges, it means the big boys have shown up to sell, in that case it could be a lot like 2008.
————————————
Perfect ! I am looking to get another vehicle in the stable ! Thinking a few year old 911 GT3.
Please, oh please, back to the future 2008 , back to the future! I have been so patiently awaiting this opportunity.
@#144, RagingRanter
Excellent comeback. He makes it too easy for you.
Great time to remember that in the short term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. There will almost always be something in the world going on that seems horrible when we get big down days like these.
#122 North shore on 02.27.20 at 8:25 pm
#114 Sail away
The wolves you speak of are carnivores, that hunter is not.
———————————————–
Actually, where I was heading was: is it better to eliminate wolves, thereby saving untold prey animals from a horrible and torturous slow death? Where do the scales balance, or is it possible to balance them?
Catching and killing one coyote probably far reduces suffering overall. Hundreds of animals will now not die from that coyote.
Idealism is often simplistic.
Is there any legal action we can take against TMX Group? People probably lost a lot of money trapped in trade. It seems also that they have had a similar mistake back in April 17, 2018.
As Thomas Caldwell, chairman of Caldwell Securities Ltd. and chairman of the rival Canadian Securities Exchange, said in a phone interview: “It’s a terrible thing to happen, particularly in a cataclysmic market that we’re currently experiencing this week that people either want to trade, need to trade, want to get out or want to get in.” (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-stocks-grind-halt-technical-201134543.html)
#144 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 10:09 pm
———————————
…and plenty of blogdogs have my Boom-Bust portfolio from well before Tesla took off or Coronavirus appeared.
No revisionist history here. Smugness? Probably.
#140 Dr V on 02.27.20 at 9:24 pm
20 FS – I dont have his orchestral suites. Got symphonies, concertos and other orchestral pieces.
Which recording do you have?
http://www.arkivmusic.com/classical/Drilldown?name_id1=11958&name_role1=1&genre=55&bcorder=19&comp_id=12424
#141 Hans Freizeicken on 02.27.20 at 9:33 pm
………………………
Is that the track in the movie Cuckoo’s Nest where Danny Devito chokes out Nurse Diesel and Jack Nicholson sets the asylum on fire ? How did u escape ?
Why they go down then? I bought ZPR around 2 years ago. Still in red.
#144 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 10:09 pm
——————–
And if it helps, i guarantee the mink did equally dastardly work to lots and lots of other animals, so net karmic credit to you. Ever see a mink’s work in a chicken coop? They kill or wound all the chickens, just because…
Aren’t we happy that socks are on sale?
#59 Penny Henny on 02.27.20 at 5:53 pm
No need to stock up on food.
Use Uber Eats and get home delivery from the grocery store.
———
Sure,
They just gonna rob the delivery guy.
The only good thing that will come out of the virus and the stock market correction will be that the Prez is toast.
Can’t tweet himself out of this mess.
Refreshing overview of the virus and stock market correction without the heavy dose of fear factor that accompanies most of the press coverage.
185 akashic record on 02.27.20 at 5:40 pm
#120 SoggyShorts on 02.27.20 at 12:34 am
#164 akashic record on 02.26.20 at 7:40 pm
#115 SoggyShorts
I have no idea what you asked from your 100% native father in law, but if his answer was that “as if I insisted that everyone in Africa lived in mud huts and hunted with spears”, then you certainly didn’t convey my thoughts.
If you ever listened to the link with the Canadian anthropologist, I sent during this discussion, you would know that the conversation goes into great details about natives in our time
********
I asked him what he thought of your posts which I showed him.
Perhaps instead of listening to some Anthropologist you should visit a reserve or two, and speak to the locals.
BANNED
@#136 north bore
“What’s this “pinch” you speak of….”
+++++
Apocalypse2020 of course…..
Over to you Poxy….. dazzle North Bore with your bunker memorabilia, canned peas, pickled beets, freeze dried bananas….yummy.
Cannibalism sounds appealing after 2 years of that…
This market drop is annoying. I keep having to adjust my cherry picking to be happy with my returns.
Down 8% in a week? Unacceptable!
Down 3% YTD? Bleh, not good enough.
Up 14% Y/Y? Ok, that’ll do.
If I have to go to “since January 2019” I won’t have any more room.
Sequence of Returns is a killer, if I’d started DiY investing or if I’d retired 2 months ago I’m pretty sure I’d be a wreck.
#142 Traps and Caps
This leads to the question: Are you smarter now than you were at 12 years old?
———————————–
Unfortunately, no.
Notwithstanding the fact I believed I knew everything worth knowing by the age of fourteen, my chronological age eventually (and without warning) outpaced my intellectual age which caused an inescapable drop in IQ.
Now I cling to that old saw ‘wisdom’ which allows me not to worry much about this development.
This popped up on the google news feed. Regulators in China to ban consumption of cats and dogs. Hoping to see verification. https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-shenzhen-prepares-ban-on-eating-cats-dogs-after-virus-outbreak/amp
This would encourage me to purchase products from China. Lots of other restrictions on wild and domestic animals in the article.
Garth, here is a briefing from Australia that spells it out. Except they don’t elaborate on the expected fate of those patients who fail to secure a hospital bed. Other than that this disclosure by Australian authorities is spot on. If only Canadians could feel proud about their bureaucrats the way Australians and Singaporeans can be…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/australian-doctors-warn-of-overwhelmed-public-health-system-in-event-of-coronavirus-pandemic
#128 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 8:33 pm
#115 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 8:05 pm
————————–
It’s nice to live in a society where we have the luxury to have others kill for our benefit, to avoid the personal guilt.
Growing up poor and rural, when our dogs got old, we shot them ourselves.
Guilt comes with living.
——————————————
Really? You really don’t see the difference between humanely killing a dog that is too old or sick to continue, and setting a barbaric leg hold trap that holds an animal in place, in extreme pain and panic, for days before the trapper returns (sometimes never returns, leaving the animal to die of exposure or starvation or gangrene)?
Is painless euthanasia of a terminal cancer or ALS patient the same as gulags or death camps, the latter of which were also “legal” at various moments in history?
Garth has nailed it in this post. Coronavirus is not the big apocalyptic death knell for man it’s made out to be.
Media is so dramatic these days, no wonder anxiety levels are soaring amongst us.
“If it bleeds it leads…”
It’s funny. They always say the stock market never rings the bell at the top but watching Algos irrationally push Telsa into nosebleed territory was it.
$917 on Feb. 19th was actually the ringing of the bell and the overall market immediately followed.
Also, saying adding more debt by The Fed dropping 25 basis points will solve anything continues to be ludicrous.
I continue to say we will never have a real recovery or price discovery if the 10 year can’t even approach 3%. Every time this happens some excuse comes around to crush it back down like clockwork. The 10 year is currently 1.20%, an all time low. That’s NOT a healthy economy or stock market. Central Banks can’t fix this. They have exacerbated this.
Basically, the Coronavirus is just an excuse for the massive selling.
Pandemic Bonds, anyone?
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”…
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wall-street-behind-delay-declaring-coronavirus-outbreak-pandemic-bonds/265264/
A little known specialized bond created in 2017 by the World Bank may hold the answer as to why U.S. and global health authorities have declined to label the global spread of the novel coronavirus a “pandemic.” Those bonds, now often referred to as “pandemic bonds,” were ostensibly intended to transfer the risk of potential pandemics in low-income nations to financial markets.
…
Notably, WHO determines if a pandemic meets the criteria that would see investors’ money be funneled into PEF as opposed to their own pockets, which would take place if no pandemic is declared between now and when the bonds are set to mature this upcoming July.
That picture is very distressing!
Those big mean dogs look like they’d take out the little kitty cat for a scrumptious little morsel, and kitty knows this – and has to flee for its life !!
#149 Blackdog on 02.27.20 at 10:34 pm
Tonight in particular I really wish Sail Away would.
———————————
When you’re feeling old amd sick, come by the farm for some compassion.
All this $ flowing into dollars and bitcoin is offering up a juicy entry price….tick tock.
Not to worry, Fed to the rescue.
Blackdog……Do what I do. When some people make me nauseous, I just scroll by. Been here long enough to know who the Good, the Bad and the Ugly are. Cheers
#153 Blackdog on 02.27.20 at 10:40 pm
@#144, RagingRanter
Excellent comeback. He makes it too easy for you.
—————————-
Suckup. Pandering to the new kid doesn’t mean he’ll want to hang out with you.
War, refugees, coronavirus, what to do….
I know.
Lets unleash MORE people from crowded, unsanitary camps and point them towards Europe….
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security/turkey-opens-frontier-for-syrian-refugees-to-enter-europe-after-strike-kills-troops-idUSKCN20L0GQ
Only this time, Angela Merkel wont be able to accept 1 million of them.
The Self Righteous Vegan Blog is around the corner to the left right next to the Whole Foods and beside the sustainably sourced coffee shop.
Warren Buffett: “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
#133 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 8:50 pm
#124 Howard on 02.27.20 at 8:27 pm
#114 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 7:59 pm
#98 north shore on 02.27.20 at 7:35 pm
I’m not saying what he’s doing is illegal. What I am saying is that its inhumane and we would all be a lot better in this world if it stops.
—————————-
You’re not speaking for those who feed their families through trapping, obviously.
—————————-
By that logic we should bring back bear baiting or the Roman coliseum animal bloodbaths. They surely made people money too.
—————————-
It’s not logic, it’s a statement.
If somebody is doing something legal and upright, they have every right to do it.
If you feel a moral imperative to stop that activity, you have every right to do everything within your power to change the law.
However, denigrating or shaming any person who is legally acting fully within their rights is a step too far. Your moral imperative does not outweigh their legal right.
———————————————————-
Exactly! This is why anyone who participated in a lunch counter sit-in should have been jailed for life.
Those restaurant owner’s were completely within their legal rights, correct?
@ North Van Vegan
When omnivores get really hungry……..
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/increase-in-polar-bear-cannibalism-cases-linked-to-shrinking-arctic-ice-expert
@#180 unbalanced chequebook
“Been here long enough to know who the Good, the Bad and the Ugly are.”
++++
I’m just Smelly so that means you read mine?
p.s. Blackdog did come across as a bit of a suck up…or in a dog’s case….butt sniffer.
#115 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 8:05 pm
Speaking as someone who used to trap and snare fur bearing animals for extra money as a teenager (and not at all proud of it) I am strongly in favour of banning leg hold traps and snares. They are cruel, and I’ve seen the results up close, and still carry the guilt.
___
You should have a look at the new ones out there before you vote to ban, they don’t injure the animal. I’ve seen them used to catch animals for relocation. I don’t much like snares either.
I ran into a dude at the gas station down the road about 3-4 weeks ago. In the back of his truck were 8 paws sticking up in the air. I walked over and he had two coyotes in there, beautiful looking animals, healthy and big.
I got chatting with the guy, and he baits them and shoots them for the hide. He said he has taken hundreds off his acreage and has made over 12 grand so far off the fur – most of which he said went to Canada Goose…
I don’t mind a guy shooting an animal for financial gain once and a while (if you eat meat, you’re guilty too), but from what I know of Coyote hide prices, this dude must have shot between 4-500 Coyotes over the years to make that much.
Just about anyone you meet will agree that this is just crazy.
#172 Howard on 02.28.20 at 5:33 am
#128 Sail away on 02.27.20 at 8:33 pm
#115 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 8:05 pm
————————–
It’s nice to live in a society where we have the luxury to have others kill for our benefit, to avoid the personal guilt.
Growing up poor and rural, when our dogs got old, we shot them ourselves.
Guilt comes with living.
——————————————
Really? You really don’t see the difference between humanely killing a dog that is too old or sick to continue, and setting a barbaric leg hold trap that holds an animal in place, in extreme pain and panic, for days before the trapper returns (sometimes never returns, leaving the animal to die of exposure or starvation or gangrene)?
___
Looking at your assertion, then you you’d be cool if RR had hid in the bushes and shot the Mink rather than using a trap?
@Sail Away, Are you as arrogant and narcissistic in “real life” as you are here?
Maybe take a break on the number of comments, so people don’t have to scroll so much.
APT update:
103% yesterday, up 42% today in premarket, which makes it a 30-bagger. The single day and total are both records in my 11 yrs of investing. Previously, Somero (SOM.L) was highest at 28x… then it dropped 50%.
A new and exciting day begins. Market mayhem? We’ll see.
Exciting stuff. Letting it run…
@ #160 Sail Away,
Yah I’ve always resented mink for killing those poor muskrats and making fur coats out of them. That mink I trapped deserved his fate.
A mink kills all the chickens in the coop because his instincts are to kill surplus food and cache it when available. Only then does the mink realize that he can’t even take one home because he can’t get the chicken back out of the hole he came in through. Minks don’t have the capacity for human planning nor human empathy, thus punishing them for being minks is absurd. That instinct to take advantage of surplus food is why minks and other predators are still around. Those with less determined instincts would have been extinct eons ago.
That minks kill things does not make me feel better about them suffering in traps. That it does that for you is just an intellectual sleight of hand you use to excuse yourself of guilt you’d rather not deal with. Or you have a poorly developed conscience. I’m assuming the former.
@#188 IHCTD9, I’m opposed primarily to leg hold traps and traditional snares. Baiting and shooting coyotes isn’t so bad, even if the numbers you cited are a bit sickening. If you’re harvesting them for fur, then you try to shoot for the head to avoid pelt damage, and it’s relatively quick and painless. Although I do wonder how hardened a person must be to slaughter wildlife at factory numbers like that. That’s concerning.
CORONA BEER SALES DROP!
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1233393636672446464?s=20
[SMH]
#185 Tater on 02.28.20 at 8:23 am
Exactly! This is why anyone who participated in a lunch counter sit-in should have been jailed for life.
Those restaurant owner’s were completely within their legal rights, correct?
____
That analogy is crap.
The sit in’ers were trying to change the “Law” in accordance with their moral imperative – which SA clearly started was a-ok with him.
Yes the Restaurant owners were completely within their “legal rights” to exclude Blacks at the time. That was the beef.
SA’s point was that shaming folks acting in a legal fashion just because you disagree with their completely legal actions is going to far.
Shaming tactics are alive and well and actually the modus operandi of just about any social media surfing activist today. The results have been legal and physical attacks, threats, destruction of private property, career destruction, deplatforming, bannings, and boycotts of people and business all who have done nothing wrong.
@ #146 Black dog, thanks for that. Yes, I do try to make up for past misdeeds and I hope some animals have benefitted. Maybe had I not had that experience I’d be numb to the suffering and write it off as just part of the circle of life like Sail does.
But I believe as humans we have an obligation to be better than that. Compassion needs to extend to other species, including predators. We can kill and eat things, but subjecting wildlife to extended suffering because “predators inflict suffering too” is wrong and immoral.
@39, george
Schadenfreude much? Recession=job loss. Who’s going to pay rent without jobs? Who’s going to pay the mortgage, property tax, utilities, food without a job? Investors? Gone. Don’t be so smug; real estate will also be affected with this downturn. The only things left standing will be the sale of soap stone art and marijuana stores.
And Saturday Night Hockey? forget about it. If everybody is quarantined due to virus, the only form of entertainment left will be Netflix.
#190 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 8:52 am
@Sail Away, Are you as arrogant and narcissistic in “real life” as you are here?
————————–
Not sure. What signs would indicate that?
@#192 Raging Ranter
“Although I do wonder how hardened a person must be to slaughter wildlife at factory numbers like that. That’s concerning.”
++++
One man’s cuddly, doe-eyed kill is another man’s livelihood.
I guess the Newfoundland seal pup harvest would send the readers into paroxysms of outrage if it happened today…..
And then we have trophy sports fishing……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brYtzCSrfEg
Stuff em and put em on a wall…. years of stories….
#192 Raging Ranter on 02.28.20 at 9:15 am
@#188 IHCTD9, I’m opposed primarily to leg hold traps and traditional snares. Baiting and shooting coyotes isn’t so bad, even if the numbers you cited are a bit sickening. If you’re harvesting them for fur, then you try to shoot for the head to avoid pelt damage, and it’s relatively quick and painless. Although I do wonder how hardened a person must be to slaughter wildlife at factory numbers like that. That’s concerning.
___
I got no issue with trappers, anglers and hunters, but I did not know there were dudes out there smoking animals by the hundreds for 20-30 dollars ea.
I work with a guy who hunts Coyotes with Hounds. The hounds pick up the scent and start the chase, one dog has a GPS collar on and buddy follows the hounds in his truck with his phone. If he does not get to the Hounds quickly after they corner the Coyote, apparently the Hounds will literally tear the Coyote to pieces.
I think if I ever took up hunting, I’d do it like you would, and just shoot ’em dead on their feet.
There are many unknowns about COVID 19. What’s unclear is individual response to the virus. It seems the death rate is about 3% and if acquired hospitalization of around 10%. This is according to a doctor I work with. Adding to this is the continual ignorance on the part of health care and the public on preparation. Handwashing is advocated as is social distance. The Flu shot is advocated. Other than these two measures, traditional medicine offers nothing other than respirators and ECMO if oxygen saturations become critical. Orthomolecular medicine offers hope: Large amounts of vitamin C, moderate vitamin D3, small amounts of zinc. Additionally, while not proven, colloidal silver is available. Using conventional medicine plus alternatives is key.
What’s unclear about reports of crematoriums operating in overdrive in China is whether H5N5, pig flu in addition to Covid 19 are also to blame. Statistically 300 deaths a day for a population of 10 million plus is not much. Likely hype, but unclear because no one really knows. Some say the outbreak is a disaster in China others say it is mild. What is curious is if it is not so terrible why the social shunning of Hubei residents in addition to the drastic lockdowns? China has massive production facilities for drugs and vitamins for therapy. Why are these not being used? Many many unanswered questions. It seems that because Covid 19 is a virus, again other than the Flu shot and supportive care, medicine offers nothing. You are on your own.
In Alberta in addition to this, we have a premier who has no plan to negotiate oil and no plan to pay for services all the while offering new facilities in Red Deer. How exactly he is going to pay remains a mystery. This is also fueling finger pointing at Trudeau and this concept of wexit. As if Trudeau controls market value of Bitumen and may have no control on Canadian Law at funding Quebec through payments. So in Alberta it remains a mess, however Kenney is the guy the majority voted for. Given that Alberta is much like Siberian Russia, likely this will not end well.
#190 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 8:52 am
@Sail Away, Are you as arrogant and narcissistic in “real life” as you are here?
——————————-
Ok, some data:
I told my wife a poster thought I was arrogant and narcissistic. She replied, ‘oh, I can’t imagine why they would think that’
Then I asked the dogs. They wriggled around in rapture at my presence.
So verdict at this time is: no
The jury is still out, though. I’ll interview my employees one by one, then report back.
Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
Another market slaughter today.
Sorry, sometimes I speak for my cousin, Captain Obvious.
As I indicated yesterday, we’re about half-way there. Stay cool. – Garth
“As I indicated yesterday, we’re about half-way there. Stay cool. – Garth”
Oh I do. I actually see opportunity. Helps not to look at my 60/40, even though it hasn’t been that bad with a balanced portfolio.
#184 AK on 02.28.20 at 8:18 am
Warren Buffett: “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
—————
True, but as with catching a falling knife, timing is critical.
I have a feeling this has a lot further to fall before it hits bottom based on herd mentality and fear alone.
There will come a time to be greedy, but I don’t think it’s yet.
You will know when it’s passed. You will miss it. – Garth
I must weigh in on this legal vs. moral debate. Just because something is legal does definitely not mean it is the right thing to do. If nobody ever stood up for morality against legality, women would still not be allowed to learn how to read, or vote or drive a car without their husband walking beside them with red flags. Black people would still not be allowed to participate in society. First Nations would still be in residential schools. Mentally handicapped people would still be sterilized.
Sometimes morality trumps the law and leg hold traps definitely fall under the immoral category. Outdated like landmines.
#205 Lambchop on 02.28.20 at 10:33 am
I must weigh in on this legal vs. moral debate. Just because something is legal does definitely not mean it is the right thing to do. If nobody ever stood up for morality against legality, women would still not be allowed to learn how to read, or vote or drive a car without their husband walking beside them with red flags. Black people would still not be allowed to participate in society. First Nations would still be in residential schools. Mentally handicapped people would still be sterilized.
Sometimes morality trumps the law and leg hold traps definitely fall under the immoral category. Outdated like landmines.
————-
Good post.
Discrimination against Jews was not a crime in Nazi Germany.
@#205 Lambchop on 02.28.20 at 10:33 am
I must weigh in on this legal vs. moral debate. Just because something is legal does definitely not mean it is the right thing to do. If nobody ever stood up for morality against legality, women would still not be allowed to learn how to read, or vote or drive a car without their husband walking beside them with red flags. Black people would still not be allowed to participate in society. First Nations would still be in residential schools. Mentally handicapped people would still be sterilized.
Sometimes morality trumps the law and leg hold traps definitely fall under the immoral category. Outdated like landmines.
______________________________
Exactly.
well said.
@SailAway #201,
Narcissistic people rarely see themselves as such, so not surprising you don’t.
The biased opinions of groupies, fan club members, and others who gain something from being in your good graces, don’t count.
Nothing serious yet, lots of fear mongering, but an exercise for the future totalitarian global state none the less.
#187 Annek on 02.27.20 at 7:30 pm
If Covid19 hits GTA, does anyone think that people will become paranoid about living in condos and apartments.
You share elevators and lobbies and the same air .
A house is much safer!
Yet, here in this blog people are talking about stocking up supplies. Better worry about shared space. ( such as on a cruise ship)
I wonder if there will be a drop in condo buyers and more sellers ? May be the price correction that is due .
________________________________________
It is a proven fact that residing in communal quarters increases the likelihood of cross contamination due to the use of make-up air via ventilation and in some cases the lack of fresh air. Everyone thinks that their little concrete cavity is airtight and it is their air only. Not true at all and by law your doors into the hall cannot be sealed! Just think about it when you smell your neighbours whatever wafting into your domicile. Why do you think they don’t like sending infected people to hospitals? It spreads like a California wildfire. Elevators are the worst and no matter what you have to push those buttons. Yuck.
#208 Blackdog on 02.28.20 at 10:54 am
@SailAway #201,
Narcissistic people rarely see themselves as such, so not surprising you don’t.
————————
It’s not me, BD; I’m all about the data. I’ve asked:
wife
dogs
employees
8-ball
Alexa
Results seem encouraging.
You’ll have to excuse me for the rest of the day, though. Money to count, you know?
#174 neo on 02.28.20 at 7:09 am
It’s funny. They always say the stock market never rings the bell at the top but watching Algos irrationally push Telsa into nosebleed territory was it.
$917 on Feb. 19th was actually the ringing of the bell and the overall market immediately followed.
Also, saying adding more debt by The Fed dropping 25 basis points will solve anything continues to be ludicrous.
I continue to say we will never have a real recovery or price discovery if the 10 year can’t even approach 3%. Every time this happens some excuse comes around to crush it back down like clockwork. The 10 year is currently 1.20%, an all time low. That’s NOT a healthy economy or stock market. Central Banks can’t fix this. They have exacerbated this.
Basically, the Coronavirus is just an excuse for the massive selling.
___________________________________________
And down she goes again!
Stock selloff continues again today.
Stocks in the good old US of A have been selling off all week basically over the coronavirus uncertainties. Huh but Pence is at a campaign rally and he is in charge of addressing the potential pandemic from spreading in the USA. These losses have put the three major indexes on track for their worst week since the financial crisis of 2008. Yep Pence in charge and Trump telling all of us that the virus will disappear on its own and it will be a miracle makes me feel good about the market. Between the coronavirus and these two idiots talking I would rather just deal with the virus. At least you know the facts about what it is what it does as well as a methodology of preventing its potential spread. Who knew it is as simple as staying away from infected people and washing your hands often. All the time often, and keeping your hands away from your face often!
BTW Don’t eat cats or dogs either.
#142 Traps and Caps on 02.27.20 at 9:43 pm
I have a great fur cap. Racoon. Warm like nothing else in -58F. 100% natural. 100% bio-degradeable. 100% renewable. 100% sustainable. But according to millenials, I’m a dirt lump
********************************
You just brought to mind my childhood years when, with my brother, we watched Davy Crocket (or was it Daniel Boone?) on the black and white television. Whichever of them it was, the guy wore a coon skin hat and both my brother and I had one. (Seems neither of those old western heroes had a wife so there was no girly equivalent of his hat for me so I wore a frontier guy’s hat too). We gave no thought to the poor dead racoons.
Lucky for mice that it would have taken too many of them to make our matching Mickey Mouse ears which we switched to when the MM Club program came on.
F72ON
Garth,
there is $41.4 T (as in trillion) being managed by 17 asset management firms (P. Phillips, ‘Giants’, 2018, chart p. 37) – not counting Turner Investments. Are you tracking volumes, who is selling or buying, and potential implications?
re: solid state battery, not flammable. Hydro-Québec’s research lab.
“This is one of the safest materials for lithium ion today,” Zaghib said.
‘Braga said her and Goodenough’s battery is high capacity, charges in “minutes rather than hours,” performs well in both hot and cold weather, and that its solid-state electrolyte is not flammable.’
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/batteries-storage/john-goodenough-glass-battery-news-hydroquebec
#189 IHCTD9 on 02.28.20 at 8:42 am
Looking at your assertion, then you you’d be cool if RR had hid in the bushes and shot the Mink rather than using a trap?
—————————————–
I oppose killing of animals for the sake of fashion or a quick buck. But yes, obviously a gunshot to the head is more humane than setting a leghold trap that would be at home in the medieval era. A fur seller opting for a gunshot dispatch method would likely have an ounce of empathy.
Now that a dog has tested positive for the CV in Hong Kong, one will hope that you will take this threat seriously. The fatality rate in humans is an order of magnitude greater than the “common flu”. And CV is very easy to catch. The markets recognize the risk. Garth, you need to recognize that BTFD is not a viable investment strategy in the face of a public health threat.
revisit modern day redlining : what happened? start with failures taxpayers subsidized those foreclosures
the bets on foreclosures etc….remember indymac ninja loans 23,000 seniors investors paid nothing to the gov.
taxpayers subsidized his group 1b dollars bank united wilbur ross etc etc predatory loans
so this reporter what to know what happened
investigative reporter Aaron Glantz about his new book “Homewreckers,” which looks at the devastating legacy of the foreclosure crisis and how much of the so-called recovery is a result of large private equity firms buying up hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes. “Homewreckers: How a Gang of Wall Street Kingpins, Hedge Fund Magnates, Crooked Banks, and Vulture Capitalists Suckered Millions Out of Their Homes and Demolished the American Dream” reveals how the 2008 housing crash decimated millions of Americans’ family wealth but enriched President Donald Trump’s inner circle, including Trump Cabinet members Steven Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross, Trump’s longtime friend and confidant Tom Barrack, and billionaire Republican donor Stephen Schwarzman. Glantz writes, “Now, ensconced in power following Trump’s election, these capitalists are creating new financial products that threaten to make the wealth transfers of the [housing] bust permanent.” Aaron Glantzis a senior reporter at Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting. He was a finalist for a Pulitzer Prize this year for his reporting on modern-day redlining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OckBIl9N3TQ
Quality of today’s construciton
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/it-s-terrifying-a-toronto-home-under-construction-has-collapsed-1.4830628
Re: #193 David Pylyp on 02.28.20 at 9:22 am
It could also affect Corona cigar sales. My grandfather smoked 8 a day from age 12 ’til 65.
Is it the time to pull the trigger on half a mil HELOC, drop it on the market and watch the recovery with more joy?
#155 Sail Away on 02.27.20 at 10:52 pm
#122 North shore on 02.27.20 at 8:25 pm
#114 Sail away
The wolves you speak of are carnivores, that hunter is not.
———————————————–
Actually, where I was heading was: is it better to eliminate wolves, thereby saving untold prey animals from a horrible and torturous slow death? Where do the scales balance, or is it possible to balance them?
Catching and killing one coyote probably far reduces suffering overall. Hundreds of animals will now not die from that coyote.
Idealism is often simplistic.
——————————————————————
A good friend who was a hunter/guide and lived in the isolated NW of BC told me once how he had little use for wolves because of the fact that they kill for the enjoyment and not like the wolves that Farley Mowatt who claimed to live amongst them (he didn’t) were. He saw first hand how they operate.
#160 Sail Away on 02.27.20 at 11:24 pm
#144 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 10:09 pm
——————–
And if it helps, i guarantee the mink did equally dastardly work to lots and lots of other animals, so net karmic credit to you. Ever see a mink’s work in a chicken coop? They kill or wound all the chickens, just because…
—————————————————————-
Here’s a story not about a mink but a coyote. This was back in the early 50’s on our farm in N. Sask. One day my uncle comes back from town and stops in to show us the baby coyote that someone had given him and he decided that it would be a good pet.
He lived a mile up the field from us. So the coyote grows up to full size and he would show up at our place from time to time and we would pet him but he was not warm and fuzzy like a dog. Actually not friendly at all.
We had all gone to town one day and on return and entering the farmyard we noticed several chickens laying in the yard dead. My mother freaked out and quickly ran to the chicken coop to find that most of the chickens and roosters were dead, maybe a half dozen still living. He had dug under and gotten in. This was out of a flock of about 30.
The coyote was tracked down and shot and nobody felt any of the worse for it.
#212 LP on 02.28.20 at 11:55 am
#142 Traps and Caps on 02.27.20 at 9:43 pm
I have a great fur cap. Racoon. Warm like nothing else in -58F. 100% natural. 100% bio-degradeable. 100% renewable. 100% sustainable. But according to millenials, I’m a dirt lump
********************************
You just brought to mind my childhood years when, with my brother, we watched Davy Crocket (or was it Daniel Boone?) on the black and white television. Whichever of them it was, the guy wore a coon skin hat and both my brother and I had one. (Seems neither of those old western heroes had a wife so there was no girly equivalent of his hat for me so I wore a frontier guy’s hat too). We gave no thought to the poor dead racoons.
Lucky for mice that it would have taken too many of them to make our matching Mickey Mouse ears which we switched to when the MM Club program came on.
F72ON
……………………….
Fess Parker was both Davy Crockett and Daniel Boone on tv. His wife’s name as Daniel Boone was Becky. No coon skin cap for her. His flintlock’s name was Ol’ Betsy. Je me souviens.
Easy to say “stay calm”, harder to do when you seen your portfolio already down close to 10%, and Garth says we’re probably halfway there. I mean, seriously, how long is it going to take get back those losses? At this rate we’ll soon be down again to, or below, the bottom of the 2018 correction. Already, all the gains of the last year have been wiped out. Apparently this is the fastest 10% drop in the S&P 500 in history.
I’m trying not to worry, but it’s difficult when tens of thousands of dollars (I know, small change for some of you) are melting away.
IDK, maybe I’m not adequately diversified or something. I do know that I’m not in any hurry to purchase more equity ETF shares with the money I just transferred in for the RRSP deadline. I may not be able to time the bottom exactly, but when it’s gone down this far, it shouldn’t be difficult to catch it on the way up.
Great buying opportunity out there ~15% discount stocks. I bet come Monday the market will be in green! This is a no brainier, fundamentals are in place, it seems all fear based. Buy, buy, buy….
On days like today, it’s helpful to remember the wise words of the ancient Greek, Zeno: “We’re about halfway there.”
#225 Dups on 02.28.20 at 1:39 pm
Great buying opportunity out there ~15% discount stocks. I bet come Monday the market will be in green! This is a no brainier, fundamentals are in place, it seems all fear based. Buy, buy, buy
….
Game in motion certainly peaks my predatory instincts. Kind of listening to my inner scavenger, though.
Re: #227 just snootin’ on 02.28.20 at 2:07 pm
If its common knowledge they’re going to lie about the upcoming jobs report like the last one. 225,000 jobs… sure.
I was golfing at Highland Links in Cape Breton about 8 years ago.
Got to one of the tee’s ( small par three overlooking a small river). There was a gal in a snack shack that we bought some beers and hotdogs off.
As we were standing there several coyote’s began howling just in the trees behind us.
The girl freaked.
Seems a female jogger had been killed a few years before in Cape Breton Highlands by Coyotes.
She had been jogging alone with ear buds on and the experts figure her running set off a predatory response for the animals. First fatal attack in decades in North America.
I asked the marshal on the course about it later, “Yep, after that poor girl was killed there wasn’t a live coyote for miles”.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coyotes-kill-toronto-singer-in-cape-breton-1.779304
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3i_Sv28bFSA
A lot of fearmongering to make China looks bad.
For 2009 H1N1 that started in the United States, and which eventually claimed almost 500,000 lives worldwide. Flights to and from US were not cancelled. US citizens were not barred entries to other countries. The reaction was very different then.
Animals don’t have a choice about how they eat and kill. Humans choose to cause animals to suffer.
#228 Tony on 02.28.20 at 2:48 pm
Re: #227 just snootin’ on 02.28.20 at 2:07 pm
If its common knowledge they’re going to lie about the upcoming jobs report like the last one. 225,000 jobs… sure.
…
Good point. Should be tangential. (I think that’s a word?)
#223 Ronaldo on 02.28.20 at 1:20 pm
#160 Sail Away on 02.27.20 at 11:24 pm
#144 Raging Ranter on 02.27.20 at 10:09 pm
——————–
And if it helps, i guarantee the mink did equally dastardly work to lots and lots of other animals, so net karmic credit to you. Ever see a mink’s work in a chicken coop? They kill or wound all the chickens, just because…
———————————-
The coyote was tracked down and shot and nobody felt any of the worse for it.
———————————–
Except the coyote, I assume. But only briefly.