Not so bad

After roaring through 2019 and romping to new record highs in past weeks, stocks markets have gone into a funk. Yup, the Dow shed over a thousand points Monday. Guts everywhere. A global plop. Bonds soared. Gold advanced. Oil sunk. The US dollar jumped.

First, let’s have context. The drop Monday didn’t even make it into the Top 20 days for losses on the Dow. Not even close. The granddaddy was a 22.6% rout in 1987, and the worst day during the GFC was 7.8%. So the current drop of  3% was like shutting the car door on your foot. Painful but not fatal.

Having said that, there’s no covering over the fact Mr. Market is upset. The virus is a tricky little bugger, and has now made unwelcome inroads into Europe and the Middle East after munching its way through Asia. It’s not that Covid-19 will kill millions of people – thankfully the mortality rate is low – but it’s kicking the hell out of local economies because of massive quarantine efforts.

More than a million companies in China might fail. Supply chains for behemoths like Apple are starting to break down. The cruise business is dead. Travel is massively disrupted. Q1 GDP in China will be a disaster. Global economic activity has started to decline. That’s cratered oil and commodity prices as investors anticipate weak demand.

In response equity markets – at record levels – have shed froth. That money has coursed into the usual safe havens, especially government bonds. As demand boosted their prices, yields plunged. The return on a 10-year US Treasury is close to its all-time low. Government of Canada five-year bond yields crashed 7%, back down to just 1.2%. Unless things spike it pretty much guarantees lower mortgage rates are coming.

In fact, events of Monday increased the odds central banks will cut rates more than anticipated, and battle the virus with a big shot of chicken soup and liquidity. Look for major stimulus from the Chinese bank, the ECB in Europe and the American Fed. By the way, Canada seems okay in the context of this evolving mess. Despite the Teck decision and the goofball railway blockades, our CB has kept rates at tolerable levels, giving the Bank of Canada more room to soft-land things.

Well, the deplorables cry, how bad is this? Are we doomed the way all the web sites selling gold bullion and ammo claim?

Nah. It’s noise.

The virus is real, spreading, unpredictable and will take months to overcome. But it’s not the plague. A vaccine will emerge. The flu kills way, way, way more people every year, and markets totally ignore it. This has the hallmarks of a temporary crisis. Like Y2K.

So it’s wise to focus on what drove markets higher before some moron somewhere ate a bat and puked on his neighbour. Markets have risen on a tide of robust corporate profits thanks to the power of the US economy, where unemployment is at a 50-year low, consumer confidence is on a roll and an 11-year-long expansion is firmly in place. Virtual full employment has fueled an economy which is 70% powered by consumer spending.

Says fancy portfolio manager (and second-rate blogger) Ryan: “No one should be surprised by this sell off. Since October markets are up huge leaving the equity markets extremely overbought and vulnerable to a pullback. This sell off should be expected and welcomed as it will work off the overbought technical condition and reset expectations. While the news updates on the Coronavirus are scary this should not derail the global economy and bull market.”

Yeah, but what about Trump?

No doubt his corporate tax cut helped ignite the spending which created jobs, as did deregulation and protectionism. Under this president inflation has returned, government deficits have exploded and expansion has been startling. Markets love that. They want more. And Bernie’s giving it to them.

  The victory of Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Nevada on the weekend was all Trump could have hoped for. The 78-year-old socialist has a good shot at being the orange guy’s rival in November, and radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote. Unless Super Tuesday changes everything – launching little Mike Bloomberg or resuscitating Joe Biden – then Bernie’s the guy. And Trump wins again.

As you know, Trump takes the market and the economy as proxies for his presidency. He thinks the Fed should seriously chop rates again. He’s busy doing trade deals around the world (India this week). He thinks climate change is an expensive hoax and the energy business should have free reign. Moreover it’s hard to imagine he’d let the US transportation system be shut down for weeks because of a few FN radicals in a snowplow pickup truck.

So, the virus will likely get worse, then better. Central banks will intervene. Economies will spike back in the midst of pent-up demand. Markets will recover as the American election cycle draws to a conclusion. Corporate profits will continue. Interest rates will drop. People who ignore things will sail through. Those who panic and sell will regret it.

“If the US November Election follows the UK results where the Socialists get the worst defeat since 1935,” says one Bay Street vet, “then markets will like that. Markets will probably like another 4 years of 45. The confusion and chaos are set against the background of solid economic growth. Not so bad.”

 

177 comments ↓

#1 no soup on 02.24.20 at 3:36 pm

Do you know why chicken soup helps with colds?
Because it’s full of antibiotics.

#2 It's all in a day on 02.24.20 at 3:36 pm

If the markets ain’t moving, nobody is buying. To keep investing climbing, these hiccups must occur. It hurts. It may hurt more. You would have to believe the markets won’t keep trending up over one’s lifetime. That would be hard to believe considering many millions are discovering investing for the first time. It is closer to their finger tips than ever before. And unlike homes, the barrier to entry is far lower. Wait till mining penny stocks getting going. The Mills will be romping them senseless.

#3 Renter's Revenge! on 02.24.20 at 3:37 pm

“People who ignore things will sale through.”

Double entendre?

“Markets will probably like another 4 years of 45.”

The 45th president?

#4 Phil on 02.24.20 at 3:41 pm

The world is bankrupt. What happens when everyone realizes there hard earned cash isn’t worth the paper its printed on?

#5 Rick Fast on 02.24.20 at 3:42 pm

GTA housing bubble will pop now!

#6 Guy in Calgary on 02.24.20 at 3:43 pm

Wait and see if this decline ends up being a “repeat” of winter 2018. Buy the dip.

#7 Kelowna Businessman on 02.24.20 at 3:55 pm

I respectfully disagree with your statements about the virus. It is averaging above 2% kill ratio, which is about 20x the average for the flu. It is also much more contagious than the flu according to many reports. Worse yet, it appears to have a longer incubation period and people can infect others when they have no apparent symptoms. I sold a lot of equities a week ago, because the markets are at all time highs, and I could see this one coming. You can’t stop the iPhone production line in China for very long before the US finally wakes up and takes notice. They were preoccupied with the impeachment and now with the Democratic primaries. Finally the severity of this problem broke through. I think it will be front page for weeks, and the markets will sink. I will definitely buy back in as soon as it drops 10-12%. Also, I only sold equities in my RRSP so there would be no tax liabilities.

#8 Wait There on 02.24.20 at 3:58 pm

It’s time the WHO called the reality. It will be a pandemic.
This one has the potential to clip the peak of the doomer demographic as those are the most vulnerable. Odd one problem takes care of another. Nature works in mysterious ways.
If you are older it would be wise to prepare for “distantiation”.
What if a city like Toronto needs to be quarantined? Like China has done in multiple cities. What happens to those families living paycheque to paycheque. What about the mortgages.
Just saying that Flu kills more is not being truthful. This thing is 10-20X deadlier and the potential disruption is huge because of quarantining requirements to be safe. For most people Flu means 2-3 days off work. Now think what happens when it comes to 2-3 weeks. Flu has a n R0 of less than 1. This thing is at least 2-10 time more infectious. That means the spread is rapid and the pressure it will put on hospitals is imaginable. They barely handle it day to day. Yes, 80% of the cases will be mild but the other 20% requires hospitalization. 5% will require Intensive Care. Flu……has a fatality rate of 0.1% this is around 2-3%. Small but a lot worse than FLU.
There is also the worry that maybe the Iran version is a more virulent mutation.
Finally, the chinese stats are rosier…than reality. We get that. But despite that, more elder chinese are healthier than the same North American group. That means that the potential % requiring hospitalization could easily be 25-30%. Yeah, the majority will survive but can the hospitals handle it. China rolls in the army nurses and docs. Do we have those?
Can a North American city pull of the draconian measures that China has? I think not. That means when we did not close our international travel links, we a taking a huge risk. If ( Actually when) it arrives are we prepared. Are you prepared for the disruption?

#9 Alberta Ed on 02.24.20 at 3:59 pm

Now, if we could only do something about the virus in the federal cabinet that is sickening Canada’s resource-based economy…

#10 R on 02.24.20 at 4:08 pm

If trump gets in for another 4 years, he will be for another 12 on top of that. “The constitution is fake news, believe what I tell you” will be trumps rally cry.

#11 GTAMillenial on 02.24.20 at 4:10 pm

*gasps* is this a picture of a cat?!

I just come here for the pictures (some days).

#12 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 4:10 pm

All these people saying that Sanders will lose to Trump are ignoring the fact that Sanders has been consistently polling ahead of Trump in head to heads for the past 5 years, and Sanders has the highest approval rating of any politician in the country.

Can’t say the same for Corbyn, who for many reasons (some real, some fake) was deeply unpopular.

#13 Piano_Man87 on 02.24.20 at 4:12 pm

2016: Many voters wanted Bernie to win. But the DNC picked HRC. So these voters stayed home, or even voted Trump. At least Trump was talking about draining the swamp, and fixing their broken system. At the end of the day, no one was really excited to go vote for Hillary. Who can blame them.

If Bernie gets selected, I wouldn’t call the election at this point.

Did you see Warren eviscerate Bloomberg in the debate? And he’s billionaire who is actually careful with his words. Imagine Bernie debating Trump. Ho boy.

#14 Not Drinking on 02.24.20 at 4:15 pm

Lol, I just cannot get over that picture of Felix. :)

#15 James on 02.24.20 at 4:19 pm

Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Nevada on the weekend was all Trump could have hoped for. The 78-year-old socialist has a good shot of being the orange guy’s rival in November, and radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote. Unless Super Tuesday changes everything – launching little Mike Bloomberg or resuscitating Joe Biden – then Bernie’s the guy. And Trump wins again.
___________________________________________
Bernie Sanders is so far left that he runs in circles. I hate to say it Garth but 100% agree with you on this one. Now where is the Old Man (Smoking Man) I’m waiting for him to pipe in his cantankerous gibberish about Trump and how the USA is the best place in the world! Granted we have a sniveling prime minister who for lack of better terms is a screaming social twit slowly killing this great land and the USA has a lying sociopath about to create nuclear winter.

#16 DAVID L TINDALL on 02.24.20 at 4:21 pm

I always find it interesting how people on this blog continue to bad mouth Bernie Sanders, the socialist. First off, he’s not really the socialist that so many of you think. What he campaigns for in single payer health care, free post secondary education is nothing different from what people in the most prosperous nations in Europe all ready have. What the USA does not have is real democracy. There are far more progressives in the states than right wing Republicans. If the US had real democracy, Trump would not have a hope in H*ll of being elected. There are many reasons why the US doesn’t have a much more liberal government including Red states like Wyoming where one Republican voter has the same influence as 60 voters in California to elect a Senator. Various voting suppression schemes to prevent primarily liberal minded voters also work to elect people like Trump. What Trump has actually done is give rich people a huge tax break that temporarily makes the economy look great. In the long term the resulting debt will kill the country. Totally irresponsible and I’m surprised that any truly conservative would applaud Trump’s effect on the economy.

#17 Spreadsheet Doc on 02.24.20 at 4:28 pm

Wondering if ‘Dolce Vita’ is expecting to be evacuated – with my tax money!

#18 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.20 at 4:30 pm

#12 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 4:10 pm
All these people saying that Sanders will lose to Trump are ignoring the fact that Sanders has been consistently polling ahead of Trump in head to heads for the past 5 years, and Sanders has the highest approval rating of any politician in the
………………………………

Depends on who is doing the polling and who they are asking. Bernie will get crushed imho.

#19 Graphics Girl on 02.24.20 at 4:30 pm

Equities are on sale! Sold REM (Mortgage REIT – 8% dividend) recently at almost $48. It was too high. Will buy back in around $40 where the price usually sits.

#20 not 1st on 02.24.20 at 4:31 pm

Carbon taxation ruled unconstitutional by AB Court, but we already knew that.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-court-of-appeal-federal-carbon-tax-1.5473482

#21 Ubul on 02.24.20 at 4:39 pm

Garth actually believes that he is Dr. Garth :D

#22 Mr Happy on 02.24.20 at 4:41 pm

I have got horseshoes up the yingyang. Sold off profits of VFV, VNC and VXC on Friday to rebalance into VAB.

Yup, still Mr Happy….

#23 Doug t on 02.24.20 at 4:42 pm

The world is swimming in debt – the virus situation is taking a huge toll on China’s economy and the ripple effect is being felt all around the world – if this does not calm down in the next two weeks then the sh*t will be hitting the fan

Exactly what the insecure said at the end of 2018. Some folks never learn. – Garth

#24 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 4:50 pm

Anybody notice Alpha Pro Tech up 25% today?

Diversify for opportunism, baby!

#25 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 4:51 pm

#18 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.20 at 4:30 pm
Depends on who is doing the polling and who they are asking.

Here’s the data, aggregated from multiple different pollsters.

2016: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html#polls

2020: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html#polls

119 polls between 2015 and now, Trump lost 108 of them (and 1 tie).

#26 Ed on 02.24.20 at 4:56 pm

I’m thinking on waiting a few weeks before adding to my portfolio…like maybe after 10% drop to RY & TD?
Bad idea?

#27 Stone on 02.24.20 at 4:56 pm

#7 Kelowna Businessman on 02.24.20 at 3:55 pm
I respectfully disagree with your statements about the virus. It is averaging above 2% kill ratio, which is about 20x the average for the flu. It is also much more contagious than the flu according to many reports. Worse yet, it appears to have a longer incubation period and people can infect others when they have no apparent symptoms. I sold a lot of equities a week ago, because the markets are at all time highs, and I could see this one coming. You can’t stop the iPhone production line in China for very long before the US finally wakes up and takes notice. They were preoccupied with the impeachment and now with the Democratic primaries. Finally the severity of this problem broke through. I think it will be front page for weeks, and the markets will sink. I will definitely buy back in as soon as it drops 10-12%. Also, I only sold equities in my RRSP so there would be no tax liabilities.

———

I’m going to agree with Kelowna Businessman although I’ve not dropped the equity component of my portfolio.

World population: 7.53 billion (2017 per Google)
2% of that (kill rate): 150.6 million

Considering how well the Powers That Be are handling this, I’ll quote Garth and say “this will not end well”. The equity portion of my balanced and diversified portfolio since the beginning of the year was about 29% in low volatility ETFs as I anticipated a bumpy ride this year. What a good decision. Last Tuesday, I changed that to about 47% while maintaining the full equity exposure of my portfolio. Sure glad I did. Saved me 1.76% in losses just on the last Tuesday amount so far (still down but nothing compared to what it would have been if I hadn’t moved to the low vol ETFs). The Tuesday switch was done without touching the non-registered account so no tax implication. When the dust settles and the bottom seems established, I’ll convert that extra amount back out of low volatility.

That is, if I’m still alive.

The notion that everyone on earth will contract the virus is insane. Flu is a far more deadly sickness, killing 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth

#28 Doug t on 02.24.20 at 4:58 pm

I’m counting on the “insecure” :)

#29 Josh in Calgary on 02.24.20 at 5:01 pm

So at what point does one jump in on this sale? I missed the last sale because I thought it might last a week or two and it only lasted a day or two.

#30 Stratovarious on 02.24.20 at 5:08 pm

If the CV was merely a bad cold or similar to seasonal flu, China would not have put under quarantine >40M people. There are reputable reports that suggest that it may have escaped a Wuhan laboratory working on bioweapons. The virus sequence shows manmade elements. Now borders throughout the globe are being closed down, including Austria-Italy and Russia-China. So yes, the markets are going down hard. The US 30-year bond is now a record low. So your view that this is a passing storm and similar to the end of 2018 is not consistent with the facts.

I’m not stopping you from panicking. – Garth

#31 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 5:13 pm

#1 no soup on 02.24.20 at 3:36 pm

Do you know why chicken soup helps with colds?
Because it’s full of antibiotics.

——————————

You must know a cold is a virus, which is totally and absolutely unaffected by antibiotics, right?

I hope you’re not the self-appointed medical authority in your social group…

#32 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 5:17 pm

#25 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 4:51 pm

…119 polls between 2015 and now, Trump lost 108 of them (and 1 tie).

————————————

So… you’re saying polls incorrectly forecast the future 90.76% of the time??

#33 Kilt on 02.24.20 at 5:17 pm

Sell NOW!
Everything!
Buy the three B’s. Bitcoin Bonds and Bullion. You will thank me a year from now when the body count hits 35 million.

Full Disclosure: I don’t own any Bullion, Bitcoins, and have a balanced portfolio with less than 10% bond exposure.

Kilt.

#34 Karen on 02.24.20 at 5:22 pm

My house prices are suffering because of these vagabonds! After many complaints of this “spa”, it upsets me that it has reopened using a new name. This “spa” brings nothing but crime and violence to our communities. Will someone please think of the children who live in my area?

https://globalnews.ca/news/6589183/stabbing-dufferin-wilson-toronto/

#35 Not Drinking on 02.24.20 at 5:26 pm

#20 not 1st

Finally, some sensitivity to the biggest scam out there. I am still trying to figure out and to why they charge us this carbon tax only to give it back to us?? If it actually did some good but meanwhile in Alberta the market dictates.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-solar-energy-dpenergy-1.5403001

and

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/largest-solar-installation-alberta-greengate-1.5261539

Feel free to look up all the wind farms we have and remember the cold snap that we had in December; threatened with power black outs due to not enough sun and wind in minus 30 temps to support the grid; windchill in the minus 50’s; had to buy from neighboring Provinces to stay alive.

Garth good post but this is not the flu; even more potent then SARS; much deadlier; one year from now will tell it all. I do agree hang tough, reposition when needed, this is the real deal!

#36 Kill me now on 02.24.20 at 5:31 pm

All these virus reports have been corroborated by at least two reliable sources, FOX and CNN

#37 paulo on 02.24.20 at 5:39 pm

i thought i saw a putty cat…

#38 I believe everything on Television on 02.24.20 at 5:40 pm

The whole CV thing is a hoax with multiple objectives that are too sinister to list. The least of which is to sell more Lysol wipes.

#39 johnny chase on 02.24.20 at 5:51 pm

so if i read in between the lines I should go all in HOU that triple levered oil etf?

#40 Stone on 02.24.20 at 5:51 pm

#27 Stone on 02.24.20 at 4:56 pm
#7 Kelowna Businessman on 02.24.20 at 3:55 pm
I respectfully disagree with your statements about the virus. It is averaging above 2% kill ratio, which is about 20x the average for the flu. It is also much more contagious than the flu according to many reports. Worse yet, it appears to have a longer incubation period and people can infect others when they have no apparent symptoms. I sold a lot of equities a week ago, because the markets are at all time highs, and I could see this one coming. You can’t stop the iPhone production line in China for very long before the US finally wakes up and takes notice. They were preoccupied with the impeachment and now with the Democratic primaries. Finally the severity of this problem broke through. I think it will be front page for weeks, and the markets will sink. I will definitely buy back in as soon as it drops 10-12%. Also, I only sold equities in my RRSP so there would be no tax liabilities.

———

I’m going to agree with Kelowna Businessman although I’ve not dropped the equity component of my portfolio.

World population: 7.53 billion (2017 per Google)
2% of that (kill rate): 150.6 million

Considering how well the Powers That Be are handling this, I’ll quote Garth and say “this will not end well”. The equity portion of my balanced and diversified portfolio since the beginning of the year was about 29% in low volatility ETFs as I anticipated a bumpy ride this year. What a good decision. Last Tuesday, I changed that to about 47% while maintaining the full equity exposure of my portfolio. Sure glad I did. Saved me 1.76% in losses just on the last Tuesday amount so far (still down but nothing compared to what it would have been if I hadn’t moved to the low vol ETFs). The Tuesday switch was done without touching the non-registered account so no tax implication. When the dust settles and the bottom seems established, I’ll convert that extra amount back out of low volatility.

That is, if I’m still alive.

The notion that everyone on earth will contract the virus is insane. Flu is a far more deadly sickness, killing 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth

———

Let’s revisit that insane notion weekly and you can laugh at me all you like. I’m more than happy to be wrong (really, I would be very happy to be wrong) but let’s get real and not stick our heads in the sand thinking this will just blow over that easily.

People get flu shots and yet many die regardless of the flu. There is no vaccine, no cure as of this time for the coronavirus. Scientists don’t fully understand how this virus functions, nor spreads (for the most part, they’re guessing). People lie at the airport about their health just so they are not inconvenienced or ostracized, get on planes and then mingle in the general population of where they land. They only declare when they feel worse and then beg for help. At that point, the damage is done.

The world is extremely interconnected and the almighty dollar makes those in charge do whatever they can to ensure commerce continues uninterrupted regardless of the deleterious effects of that thinking. No matter how this gets downplayed, there is a very high chance this will not end well.

#41 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 5:54 pm

https://oregonimminews.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/slapping-batman-virus-meme.jpg

#42 Dogman01 on 02.24.20 at 5:55 pm

“The 78-year-old socialist has a good shot of being the orange guy’s rival in November, and radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote.”

Not so sure about that; in 2016 the Hillary fiasco and DNC shenanigans against Bernie, kept many of Bernie’s supporters at home, and motivated the remaining anti globalist voters to Trump.

The 2016 election was not pro Trump it was anti status quo, Hillary exemplified status quo. I bet Bernie would have beat Trump if the DNC did not sabotage him.

If they get a Bloomberg or a Biden the Bernie people will simply sit at home.
Most mainstream Dems hate Trump so much they will vote Bernie even if they are wary of his stance, and some of the Trump voters whom just wanted a new trajectory (vs continued global wage outsourcing) could also vote Bernie.

Trump has not put the US into another war and seems determined to get them out of the left-over ones, not sure if that is the criteria for a good president…..but they have wasted so much blood and treasure over the last 20 years.

#43 MF on 02.24.20 at 6:06 pm

I don’t think it’s the end of days, or the plague, but I don’t think this new virus is “just another flu” either.

As others have said, the total lack of immunity + higher than the average flu mortality rate + easy transmissibility make this different. Garth is right not to worry, but with every new infection the risk of mutation grows. Any mutation can make the virus more virulent (bad) or less virulent (good).

Everyone at my workplace is starting to worry a bit. Nothing crazy just a lot of questions about policies and procedures. Seems business is down a bit too. This is on everyone’s mind, and why not? It’s frightening. An invisible threat that we have little control over, and can’t ever fully avoid.

Someone clueless posted earlier today that a degree in anything other than science is a waste. They, like many others who are clueless, cited Sociology as an example. How wrong these people are. The black death had huge societal implications that changed the course of history. Epidemiologists -who we beg for help once every five years when the next inevitable terrifying disease pops up then ignore for another five years- has its roots in sociology, when someone decided to look at how serfdom led to the spread of disease. A little respect is in order.

MF

#44 the Jaguar on 02.24.20 at 6:08 pm

”A deep man believes in miracles, waits for them, believes in magic, believes that the orator will decompose his adversary; believes that the evil eye can wither, that the heart’s blessing can heal; that love can exalt talent; can overcome all odds.” R.W. Emerson.

We live in troubled times, but a look in the rear view mirror should remind us that relative to experiences of those (our parents, our grandparents), we have a lot for which we should feel very grateful. Follow sensible financial advice (Garth’s), the simple rules of hygiene you were taught as a child, and remain optimistic throughout your life. There will always be a new virus, worrisome news event, or someone trying to take advantage of crowd inspired fear. Just say no.

#45 El Presidente is buying.... on 02.24.20 at 6:09 pm

Buy the dip..

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

#46 Bob Dog on 02.24.20 at 6:16 pm

Bernie Sanders did not kill himself.

#47 COVFEFE-19 on 02.24.20 at 6:19 pm

Eh, the market knows about flu already, as do epidemiologists.

Now, I’d like to say the following slowly and carefully, so that there are no misunderstandings:
1) Flu kills mostly older and/or frailer people. I’m not interested in a moral debate about whether we should care less about flu because of that, but I think it is definitely a factor in how people think about various infections, and risks to *themselves* as well as *the economy*.
2) This virus is obviously already having a far greater effect on various bits of the global economy than flu. Four weeks ago, maybe “eh, flu’s bigger” was an argument. No longer.

#48 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.24.20 at 6:21 pm

#1 no soup on 02.24.20 at 3:36 pm
Do you know why chicken soup helps with colds?
Because it’s full of antibiotics.

—–

The cold is a virus there smart guy

#49 conan on 02.24.20 at 6:26 pm

If the CV was merely a bad cold or similar to seasonal flu, China would not have put under quarantine >40M people.
– Stratovarious

If it is a cold or flu that no one has any immunity to ,then yes you do, quarantine millions of people. I assume the economy would take a 20 percent hit. Meaning , 1 out of 5 people will always be ill with Coronavirus . And it takes months for Covid 19 to exit stage left.

The more I think I about it.. the more expensive it is to ignore it.
It will be interesting to see what the markets do over the next few days. Mr Market might want a 20 % haircut, that’s why having cash and bonds to use to buy back in works so well.

#50 beans on 02.24.20 at 6:26 pm

Noise ?

The US 10Y has dropped more than half from 3.25 to 1.37 in the last 14 months, a steady decline.

#51 Camille on 02.24.20 at 6:31 pm

I find stocks selling off unfortunate, but not alarming. I find crashing bond yields very disappointing. I’m more concerned about the bonds. All time high stocks, all time low yields. Where to now?

#52 Treasure Island CEO - 198,345,434.88 Offshore on 02.24.20 at 6:40 pm

Translation: housing going to the moon. Hard assets to soar. Multiple bids happening in Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna. The kids know that after a cool down in price, tweaking of the stress test, drop in rates that the tide is turning from headwinds in house prices to tailwinds. Last August, 2019 marks the bottom for house prices at present and everything points to loosening of credit and dropping rates, which is akin to pouring gas on the fire for housing markets.

Until I see an actual bear market, 20% discounted from where we are at now, I am not buying into the financial markets, instead directing money into hard assets like housing as this Spring is going to be a barn burner.

I will just hold current investments and watch. With the virus going to get worse before getting better the financial markets will follow suit (getting worse before getting better) meaning more discounts to come.

What happened to the Hong Kong protests?

#53 SimplyPut7 on 02.24.20 at 6:40 pm

I think the markets are more spooked over Bernie Sanders doing well than the COVID-19.

We’ll just have to see who Super Tuesday voters think the nominee will be.

Or maybe traders are manipulating the market to get a rate cut from the US fed.

#54 Corona Panic on 02.24.20 at 6:45 pm

The markets have been irrationally exuberant the last several months shrugging off literally everything the world could throw at it. Acts of war, sanctions, pandemics, poor economic data from many parts of the globe, commodity prices in the dumpster. Long overdue for a sharp correction due to all of that and in lieu of the negative impact caused by a suffering economic super power that can’t ever be trusted with their statistics and economic data. Lowering rates that are already at 1% isn’t going to help much and China can’t just print money to get itself out of this one. Biochemists and reputable immunologists everywhere are deeply concerned.

I pray that all will return back to normal immediately but from the looks of things, we are very early on. Maybe it will only be a few rough trading days and It will pass quickly. I mean, none of us know.

#55 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 6:46 pm

#49 conan on 02.24.20 at 6:26 pm

I assume the economy would take a 20 percent hit. Meaning , 1 out of 5 people will always be ill with Coronavirus.

—————————-

Conan! You’re back! And still making predictions.

Last time you appeared, you predicted impeachment would eliminate Trump.

So… 0 for 1… but who knows: keep predicting and eventually you might get one right.

#56 BTFD on 02.24.20 at 6:47 pm

Larry Kudlow says investors should “seriously consider” buying the dip

Stocks plunged the most in two years amid coronavirus fears on Monday, and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow believes it creates a good buying opportunity for investors as the epidemic won’t disrupt the U.S. economy. “The coronavirus will not last forever. The U.S. looks well-contained and the economy is fundamentally sound,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow

Not yet Larry. Soon.

#57 Bond yields are tanking on 02.24.20 at 6:50 pm

Coronavirus fears cause mortgage rates to plunge to 8-year low.

As coronavirus fears hit financial markets, U.S. bond yields are tanking, pushing mortgage rates that loosely follow the 10-year Treasury yield toward an eight-year low. They could sink even lower.

Payoffs, or refinances, are surging right now. Applications to refinance a home loan are up around 165% annually, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeehawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!

#58 MF on 02.24.20 at 6:56 pm

#52 Treasure Island CEO – 198,345,434.88 Offshore on 02.24.20 at 6:40 pm

-Not exactly. A slowing economy, even if temporary, means job loss.

Yeah people borrow their brains off, but someone has to pay the mortgage. Remember it’s the monthlies that is all anyone cares about (in real estate).

Gold and bitcoin and that other trash will experience a temporary jump then retraction……like always.

You are correct to buy equities if there is a 20% drop.

MF

#59 Raoul Pal - Recession Watch on 02.24.20 at 6:56 pm

This does remind me a bit of 2007/2008 when first we saw Iceland go, then Northern Rock and the UK banking crisis along with the US mortgage lenders and then it hit Wall St and the global economy fell apart.. Feels a similar rolling contagion – a spreading cause and effect.

One thing we all need to think through is the effect of the global slowdown on US corporate cash flows, hence their desire/ability to buy back shares as cash flows go negative. If that bid goes, there is no bid.

#60 Penny Henny on 02.24.20 at 6:58 pm

The notion that everyone on earth will contract the virus is insane. Flu is a far more deadly sickness, killing 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth
//////////////

Clearly wrong. The flu is much more widespread but not nearly as deadly

#61 Andrew on 02.24.20 at 7:02 pm

Agreed best not to panic. I think this is a good lesson of why its not crazy to have a few % in gold.

#62 T on 02.24.20 at 7:04 pm

Its quite telling. The entire years gains of the markets wiped in before the markets even opened. IE the average person had no chance.

That was 24 hours. And yet—-all good. Stay the course.

Familiar words.

Lets see what the next 24 hours bring.

#63 Reversal of Fortune on 02.24.20 at 7:11 pm

I am to the best of my knowledge the only person in the world who has spent his life investigating trillions of retirement plan failures. About half of the states, 24 to be precise are severely underfunded. It is a retirement crisis.

There is 100% probability that in the next crisis a lot of pensions will go under.

Provinces and states are going to have trouble keeping populations because they end up having to tax more, while providing fewer services. This leads to massive ripple effects on the economy. It will affect everyone in material ways.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.20 at 7:20 pm

@#52 Treasure Island
“What happened to the Hong Kong protests?’
++++

They ran out of masks….

#65 Nonplused on 02.24.20 at 7:21 pm

Well, I for one have been maintaining a 20% allocation to gold and gold miners, twice the original 5-10% Garth used to recommend, and all this stuff that has been going on in the last year or 2 has enabled me to reallocate into more Garth ™ portfolio stuff. Wish I’d waited a few months but timing is hard. Anyway the 20% I kept means another reallocation might be coming up. My intention is to get down to 10% but it is hard when gold keeps going up. But I missed $1950, so I am not going to miss $1680, my finger is on the sell button. I won’t never sell it all though, I made money on it and it seems to provide a hedge to the rest of the portfolio. But as always, reallocating is the key to success. I agree with Garth’s old advice that 5-10% gold is good, although I also understand his perspective that owning the TSX gives the required weighting so you don’t need gold bars.

#66 Not Drinking on 02.24.20 at 7:27 pm

Off topic; Garth, I think you and Dorothy will get a kick out of this. Any Dawgs out there that are interested in past history go ahead and watch. This story/video has been colorized/ I would say more digitized to view, it dates back to 1911 in New York. I find it fascinating as to what life was like back then. I will post the link; up to you to watch the video if you are interested.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8039265/Incredible-footage-1911-New-York-City-colorized-artificial-intelligence-high-resolution.html

#67 Felix on 02.24.20 at 7:27 pm

Today’s pic shows who’s really in charge.

#68 n1tro on 02.24.20 at 7:28 pm

Cost me $40 today to get home (go train + Uber). Apparently, to make people sympathetic to your cause, you should find the most annoying way to get people to not give a shit about the cause. In this case, protesting on the Go train tracks seemed a good idea.

#69 45north on 02.24.20 at 7:34 pm

The victory of Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Nevada on the weekend was all Trump could have hoped for. The 78-year-old socialist has a good shot of being the orange guy’s rival in November, and radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote.

the Dems are in trouble

in 2016, 8% of blacks voted for Donald Trump. In 2020, if 16% of blacks vote for Donald Trump, he’ll win. If 16% vote for Republicans, they’ll win back the House.

#70 Andrew on 02.24.20 at 7:36 pm

Also interesting for myself, this is the first time bitcoin has been considered a macro instrument during a time of global market distress. Will it be viewed as risk on? risk off? Catch a bid? Remain uncorrelated? We shall see.

#71 Peak Preparedness on 02.24.20 at 7:38 pm

Covid-19 is an unknown. Did it come from bats? Snakes? A lab in Wuhan or Winnipeg? How deadly is it? How contagious is it? Nobody knows but the authorities are acting like this is something much different that the common flu. The main problem seems to be that none of us have resistance to it because it is “novel” (ie. new).

My pantry is stocked with 4 weeks worth of food just in case I can’t leave the house for a while. All stuff I would eat anyway. I don’t think you need Covid-19 for this to be a good idea, although 2 weeks is probably enough for weather events. But look at it this way folks: The bank isn’t paying you any interest and those cans of soup are inflating at 2%. A can of soup in the pantry is not a bad idea.

———————–

#1 no soup on 02.24.20 at 3:36 pm
“Do you know why chicken soup helps with colds?
Because it’s full of antibiotics.”

Antibiotics can’t treat viral infections like the cold. All cold remedies treat the symptoms, not the infection. Chicken soup is good for colds because sufferers don’t eat and drink enough. Soup helps with both problems. Whatever soup.

But if you are saying chicken soup has meaningful amounts of antibiotics in it, it might be time to stock up.

#72 Kato on 02.24.20 at 7:44 pm

#43 MF on 02.24.20 at 6:06 pm

Someone clueless posted earlier today that a degree in anything other than science is a waste. They, like many others who are clueless, cited Sociology as an example. How wrong these people are. The black death had huge societal implications that changed the course of history. Epidemiologists -who we beg for help once every five years when the next inevitable terrifying disease pops up then ignore for another five years- has its roots in sociology, when someone decided to look at how serfdom led to the spread of disease. A little respect is in order.
————-
Nowhere did I disrespect anyone or say “anything other than science is a waste.” I apologize if your hackles went up. My examples were specific people that I know, paying off humanities degrees working at Pizza Hut and Starbucks. For them, their money probably would have gone further learning to weld. My “bad university” statement was losing 4 or more years of working time for no concrete benefit (I.e. no career).

For someone who landed an actual job in their field, terrific. They likely studied hard and had both passion and the knack for what the career demands. Good university.

#73 Stone on 02.24.20 at 7:50 pm

#52 Treasure Island CEO – 198,345,434.88 Offshore on 02.24.20 at 6:40 pm
Translation: housing going to the moon. Hard assets to soar. Multiple bids happening in Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna. The kids know that after a cool down in price, tweaking of the stress test, drop in rates that the tide is turning from headwinds in house prices to tailwinds. Last August, 2019 marks the bottom for house prices at present and everything points to loosening of credit and dropping rates, which is akin to pouring gas on the fire for housing markets.

Until I see an actual bear market, 20% discounted from where we are at now, I am not buying into the financial markets, instead directing money into hard assets like housing as this Spring is going to be a barn burner.

I will just hold current investments and watch. With the virus going to get worse before getting better the financial markets will follow suit (getting worse before getting better) meaning more discounts to come.

What happened to the Hong Kong protests?

———

That’s a very good question. Probably best to ask the Chinese Communist Party about that. Only problem is that they’re occupied with the fallout of the HK distraction which got a wee bit out of control.

#74 Shawn on 02.24.20 at 7:50 pm

Something big you’re omitting. US home builders have been on an absolute tear and were immune to today’s sell off for the most part. ITB XHB

What is this signalling? Yup. A new US housing boom is beginning.

That means higher real estate prices in Canada also. Maybe much higher.

#75 conan on 02.24.20 at 7:51 pm

Last time you appeared, you predicted impeachment would eliminate Trump.- Sail away

it will eliminate him. I can’t control the Senate but the voter can.

#76 Politico on 02.24.20 at 7:53 pm

It seems a forgone conclusion at this point that Trump will get 4 more years. Bernie is on his way to winning the Democratic nomination and that means Trump wins. Bernie has a good base, but even most democrats in the US are afraid of socialism. If they can’t bring themselves to vote Trump they will stay home. Remember many democrats have wealth that they would like to keep rather than spending it on drug users and illegal immigrants.

The whole thing seems so surreal. How can the entire democratic party fail to find another Bill Clinton or JFK to run??? Are the powers that be throwing the election? Can’t they throw Chelsea in there like we did with Justin? She’s old enough.

#77 Government Shill on 02.24.20 at 8:02 pm

Those who panic and sell will regret it.

Then… What about those that buy right now? Have 10% of three registered accounts sitting idle. Should I toss it all on the fire (in an exciting blend of ETFs) or hold back the standard 5%?

#78 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.20 at 8:08 pm

Protesters have once again shut down the intersection of Clark and E Hastings in Vancouver.
Vancouver Police shared news of the demonstration and the subsequent traffic closure via Twitter just after 3 p.m. Monday.
Additionally, TransLink has posted that there are several bus route detours due to the march and protest in the area. Affected lines include the R5, 14, 16, 17, and 20. You’ll find updates regarding the status of those transit changes via TransLink’s Twitter.
Extinction Rebellion Vancouver has shared some live video from the protest site on their Facebook page.
The City of Vancouver’s traffic cameras at Clark and E Hastings also show the protesters in the intersection.
The protestors are supporting First Nations opponents to a natural gas pipeline in northern B.C. The demonstration follows well over a week of protests across the country, including one in solidarity in Ontario that ended with arrests this morning.
This is not the first time opponents to the pipeline have chosen the intersection of Clark and Hastings, due to its access to the Port of Vancouver.

#79 Me on 02.24.20 at 8:12 pm

Bernie is no Jeremy Corbyn. He could absolutely win, and is in fact winning most head to head polls. It’s mostly corporate news and people like the Goldman Sachs ceo being alarmist about this. I previously thought that a “safe”moderate like Biden would have the best odds, but there’s baggage and voter excitement fatigue with them. Bernie is this time getting support from not just his core demographics ( which incidentally had a lot of the white working class that voted for you know who) but other demographics as well are quite excited about him. It’s not all about tax rates, democracy and basic human decency are on the line. Remember how this whole “he can’t possibly win” happened for 45 last time.

#80 Nonplused on 02.24.20 at 8:16 pm

#4 Phil on 02.24.20 at 3:41 pm
“The world is bankrupt. What happens when everyone realizes there hard earned cash isn’t worth the paper its printed on?”

The world is not bankrupt. When the great reset happens the lenders will simply repossess the assets. Ya sure, a currency collapse could be involved, but the river won’t disappear. Nor will anything else. Except perhaps pensions. Those were fake promises from day one.

#81 Sail Away on 02.24.20 at 8:17 pm

#75 conan on 02.24.20 at 7:51 pm
Last time you appeared, you predicted impeachment would eliminate Trump.- Sail away

it will eliminate him. I can’t control the Senate but the voter can.

—————————

Uh huh. Last time you also declined to put your money where your mouth was. $100 bet (to the organization of the other’s choice) that Trump wins?

Stand up or stay home, my friend.

#82 Nonplused on 02.24.20 at 8:19 pm

#10 R

You are insane. Trump has 4 more years and that is it.

#83 Sold Out on 02.24.20 at 8:21 pm

Seeing as it’s apparently “Panicky Conspiracy Monday”, here’s one for the tinfoil brigade….

The Libs first bought out TMX, and now there’s calls for them to buy Frontier. How long until the O and G industry is nationalized?

T2 succeeds where his father failed.

#84 no expert on 02.24.20 at 8:24 pm

#38 I believe everything on Television

Ostriches make good eating and are easy to catch.

#85 Sail Away on 02.24.20 at 8:24 pm

#77 Government Shill on 02.24.20 at 8:02 pm
Those who panic and sell will regret it.

Then… What about those that buy right now? Have 10% of three registered accounts sitting idle. Should I toss it all on the fire (in an exciting blend of ETFs) or hold back the standard 5%?

——————————-

Well… no. You wouldn’t immediately sell everything on a 3% gain, would you?

It’s always prudent to ease in, in 1/3 steps or so, separated by weeks or months. Dial it back, turbo, most investing decisions are best made slowly.

#86 Piks on 02.24.20 at 8:24 pm

So the gradual meltdowns will ever happen. I missed buying opportunities between 2010-2015 as I always read and believed doom and groom. Turns out all economists also have a bias that realtors have. Now can never own in Toronto. But there is no shamve in renting for the rest of life, isn’t it. So what’s in store for future?

#87 AlbertaGuy in AZ on 02.24.20 at 8:24 pm

Garth, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect that perhaps 20% of the worlds population could get the virus especially given that someone can be non-symptomatic for 10-14 days while spreading the virus unknowingly resulting in a much higher contagion rate.

With a 2% death rate it could potentially mean 32M deaths world wide.

8,000,000,000 x 1/5 x .02 = 32,000,000

Of course it could very well be a lot less than that as the vaccine labs around the world will be working in overdrive and people will self-quarantine like mad to reduce chance of exposure.

But, to do that you will need to be prepared for 2-3 weeks of isolation with food, water and everything else you need during that time at home.

#88 akashic record on 02.24.20 at 8:27 pm

Anybody or their advisor bought the dip today?

#89 akashic record on 02.24.20 at 8:30 pm

#76 Politico on 02.24.20 at 7:53 pm

Can’t they throw Chelsea in there like we did with Justin?

Are you out of your mind?!
It’s her mother’s turn.

#90 COVFEFE-19 on 02.24.20 at 8:34 pm

“in 2016, 8% of blacks voted for Donald Trump. In 2020, if 16% of blacks vote for Donald Trump, he’ll win.”

I assume you meant to add “all other things being equal” (which they won’t be) and “if correlations hold” (which they won’t).

In 2016, 33% of Hispanics (a voting bloc 33% larger than blacks) voted for Trump. If 33% of Hispanics vote for Trump in 2020, I’ll eat my shorts.

I don’t see why the young’uns are all fired up about Bernie in particular. But they were in 2016 and they are today, and my lack of understanding of why doesn’t change that. If he’s the nominee, he’s going to have a lot of canvassers, phone dialers, drivers, etcetera etcetera.

#91 Taison Furry on 02.24.20 at 8:36 pm

Garth,

First Tyson Fury and now this? Will most likely see a dead cat bounce over the next day or tow before some a huge or Sanderesque yuuuuge bloodbath correction of 20-30%. Time to rotate sectors into pharmaceuticals and medical related stocks.

And please get some goggles for the pooch. Everyone knows that the masks do not protect viral droplets from entering your eyes, one of the prime vectors of transmission.

#92 Miley Virus on 02.24.20 at 8:39 pm

The best thing that could happen to the Leafs right now is quarantining the oppositions forwards, to prevent the swiss cheese defense and human sieve goalies from being exposed.

#93 Drinking on 02.24.20 at 8:51 pm

#76 Politico
lol! Perhaps because they are not truthful and ironically fill there bank accounts using the Reps/Cons rules to only (once rich enough) fly, drive, use the most or comparable oil/gas to all others and then dictate to the rest of us on how much we should pay for there lifestyles; you clearly do not get it! The joke is one you.

#94 whiplash on 02.24.20 at 8:54 pm

“This pandemic is uncontained and is now unstoppable, and can only be delayed. In 2-3 months, other countries, including the US are going to be like China”.

Dr. Michael T. Osterholm Ph.d, M.P.H., Director, Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy

Kristen G. Anderson Ph.d Director of Infectious Disease Genomics, Department Immunology and Microbiology Scripps Research Institute

“Having a vaccine in the short term would be like moving the Grand Canyon to Minnesota”.

Not looking to good!

#95 Genesis II on 02.24.20 at 9:00 pm

“The victory of Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders in Nevada on the weekend was all Trump could have hoped for. The 78-year-old socialist has a good shot of being the orange guy’s rival in November, and radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote.”

A 78-year-old (as Bernie) has a 25% chance of not living past 82 (ie. 4 more years), and specifically in this case, maybe a 50% chance of being voted in. The combined math gives a 12.5% chance that we’ll have him around in 2024.
Trump on the other hand, is younger and has a much younger (and pleasing to the eye) wife: advantage Trump!

Now, onto more serious matters like the markets…

-3% in a day is -780% annualized! Of course, we can’t go below -100% now can we! But I am in the camp that this year will be one to remember – for all the wrong reasons if you’re long the markets. Coronavirus will be blamed for it all I’m sure, just as the stress test was blamed for a crazed RE market. But ‘catalysts’ are not the ’cause’, merely inflection points.

#96 AACI Homedog on 02.24.20 at 9:18 pm

Is that a cat or a dog, dogs ?

#97 Trump Rocks!! on 02.24.20 at 9:20 pm

All you nervous Nellies out there, listen to Captain Garth. The markets will recover and march to new highs. These are buying opportunities not selling panics by nervous Nellies. If they bring on another round of QE, the markets will soar even further.

#98 Piet on 02.24.20 at 9:20 pm

Inspiring speech by Marianne Williamson endorsing Bernie Sanders.
“Stand up to the corporate aristocratic forces that would mitigate against liberty and justice for all, whether it is the prison-industrial complex, whether it is the military-industrial complex, whether it is the pharmaceutical complex, and whether it is the campaign-media-industrial complex.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs6CUhXSJDI

#99 Steve Hardy on 02.24.20 at 9:37 pm

Trump brought back inflation? Not sure where you’re seeing inflation. Outside of the ridiculous YYZ YVR real estate market! The reflation argument is pretty much dead. And the overwhelming consensus that Sanders loses to Trump seems a tad complacent to me. I’m not for Sanders but am wondering if there might be some surprises in store!

#100 Sean on 02.24.20 at 9:40 pm

#16 DAVID L TINDALL on 02.24.20 at 4:21 pm

Word.

Additionally, re: the dip, if it’s deep then it’s a perfect opportunity for some tax loss selling like late 2018.

#101 crazyfox on 02.24.20 at 9:49 pm

I wouldn’t dismiss Biden so easily, not when Bernie makes gaffes like defending Fidel Castro. Bloomberg had a disastrous debate a few days back. Future debates don’t hold more promise for Bloomberg going forward, his main enemy is himself. As Bloomberg bleeds support, are we to think Bloomberg supporters will flock to Sanders? Buttigieg, same thing. I doubt that Democrats are ready to elect a gay nominee for president. What I’m saying is, this cake is far from baked. Biden needs south Carolina this week. We’ll know a great deal more come super Tuesday how its shaping up but for now, its too soon to call.

#102 Doug t on 02.24.20 at 9:51 pm

Well interesting – my brothers-in-law works for the World Bank in DC for the last 2 years after 23 years with the Canadian Fed – I got a txt from him saying the WB is making dramatic preparations as of late last week due to intel re the virus situation

#103 Rich and Bored on 02.24.20 at 9:56 pm

I’m buying every month no matter what with free cash from dividends. I have roughly 20 years of cash so nothing about today impacts on my tomorrow. Bring it on. If I “lose” 10% over the next month so what, I’m up 100% and more on individual equities over five years. On my side, I’m hoping for a flop in everything so I can vultch and gorge. Call me when Trudeau calls for the emptying of cities and a return to the killing fields. I’ll buy farmland.

#104 Millennial Realist on 02.24.20 at 9:58 pm

Nope.

Your casual dismissal of Bernie is totally wrong, Garth.

He will win the White House if he stays in the race.

The wealth gap has simply grown far too wide. He presents the only practical way to vote against that. Younger people who now control the levers of politics know this – they live this terrible experience every day.

As far as being “radical enough to keep millions of Dems at home for the vote”, consider this:

So many of Trump’s supporters are paleo boomers and even older people. Probably 3-5 million or more of them will be bed-ridden and non-voting, many even deceased by November, simply due to the realities of aging and illness. Same goes for some of the paleo Democrats who might not support Bernie. The dramatic changes in health and ability for people over 65 or so have real population impacts. Look at the census charts. Month by month, such supporters of the status quo are substantially reducing in numbers. Just a fact of human life, mortality and infirmity. Enough to make a real difference in November numbers, even based on calculations made very recently. Nine months is a big chunk of your time left on this planet when you are already 65 or 70 or 75. Stuff happens, you can’t avoid it.

Demographic shift is now happening in real time, way more than even in 2017. This will be even more apparent by the 2022 mid-terms, when Republicans will be history in Congress and Senate numbers.

Change is happening, in real time.

Change will run over the status quo bigly in 2020.

#105 MF on 02.24.20 at 10:01 pm

#72 Kato on 02.24.20 at 7:44 pm

My post wasn’t really directed at you, or anyone in particular.

Just pointing out the inaccuracy of the useless non-STEM university degree idea we see some clowns posting on here.

We actually agree. There will be winners and losers in everything. A lazy drug addict with a certificate in welding will still be a lazy drug addict.

Also, the meme of the Phd millennial working at Starbucks is long dated and stale. That might have been the case in 2010, which is now a decade ago.

MF

#106 Ginny Demure on 02.24.20 at 10:09 pm

Remember a few years back when Canada sold all its gold?

#107 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 02.24.20 at 10:13 pm

Bernie’s policies are just insane.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/thoughts-bernie-sanders-tax-economic-proposal/

He will never be US President for many obvious reasons.

#108 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 10:16 pm

#32 Sail away on 02.24.20 at 5:17 pm
So… you’re saying polls incorrectly forecast the future 90.76% of the time??
——–

No…I’m saying that 90.76% of all polls between 2015 and today show that Bernie Sanders would beat Donald Trump in a general election, hypothetical or otherwise.

#109 Not Drinking on 02.24.20 at 10:18 pm

This is not my post but I most agree with it. I am not including the name due to the fact that I did not ask the poster. Here is what the poster had to say.

Regarding Norway’s record in managing its resource wealth, while Alberta could have done better in this regard, the comparison is not fair. Norway and Alberta have similar sized populations although Alberta is twice the land size (infrastructure spending goes half as far). Norway transports resources by both land and sea and has access to all of Europe. Alberta is landlocked and reliant on one market (the US) that is energy self-sufficient and its biggest competitor. Norway is a sovereign state without multiple provincial and federal governments. Alberta is one politically irrelevant province in a massive country with a large population that largely does not support or value the natural resources sector with a federal government obsessed with pandering to the UN and its various agendas to the detriment of Canadians. Norway does not pay revenues and taxes to multiple other governments. Its energy industry does not have to navigate hostile multiple levels of government, regulators and courts, stakeholders, activists and economic saboteurs. Please consider this when considering Norway’s successful accumulation of wealth from its resources. However, Norway does serve as a useful guide in one respect – as Albertans consider their future in Canada, we could look at Norway as an example of what we might achieve economically should we achieve independence and obtain an agreement with the US (or parts of BC, excluding Vancouver and Vancouver Island) for access to tidewater (in exchange for, for example, the equivalent of the payments Alberta pays under the equalization formula). It seems to me anything is now possible in the lawless and fractured expanse this confederation has become.

I really think it is time! T2 will kill us; take our chances and run and create our own future; all that wish to join us let us come up with a plan.

#110 Marco on 02.24.20 at 10:46 pm

Bernie will win.

#111 Doug in London on 02.24.20 at 11:02 pm

As Warren Buffett has said before of past crises, there may be buying opportunities.

#112 Hawk on 02.24.20 at 11:55 pm

Sanders on his site has released his wealth tax plans LOL.

It includes a 40% exit tax on people with less than $1 billion and 60% on assets over $1 billion.

If Sanders becomes the democrat nominee, I expect that, under the table, a lot of rich folk will quietly be contributing to the war chest of the orange guy they hate so much, ha ha ha!

#113 Robert Ash on 02.25.20 at 12:04 am

I found the comment that Mohammed EL-Erian former CEO of Pimco made …a telling one… He was quite clear, stating don’t buy the Dips, in reference to this Virus. He has made an impression in his career, as an authority in terms of financial planning, and is a regular on the Money Networks… He was quite agitated and adamant in making this statement. I suspect he has a good information source in terms, of Financial and Political information/feedback relative to the Co 19 Virus potential.

#114 Midnights on 02.25.20 at 1:17 am

Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic
None

Read in Ottawa Citizen: https://apple.news/AhIbbyYveQXixWufXasMvBQ

#115 Tony on 02.25.20 at 1:18 am

Re: #12 SunShowers on 02.24.20 at 4:10 pm

Hopefully the voters won’t be stupid twice. Trump’s tax cut did nothing but siphon all the money from the middle class to the ultra rich. Like I said before if they can ever make those tax records from Deutsche Bank public that’s the end of most of the Trump family.

#116 Tony on 02.25.20 at 1:30 am

Re: #73 Stone on 02.24.20 at 7:50 pm

If the U.S. stock market doesn’t drop in excess of 20 percent the day Trump is out of office then the central bankers, the Fed and all other crooks and criminals might rig it for generations to come. PE ratios could top the thousand level as most of the corporations go bankrupt.

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.25.20 at 1:50 am

The notion that everyone on earth will contract the virus is insane. Flu is a far more deadly sickness, killing 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth
.———
Thanks Garth for putting it in perspective.
Extrapolating by the customary 10x, 3,500 equals 35k Canucks dying.
So, can we say that our Health Care system saves about 40% more lives?

#118 Maga vs Trudeau on 02.25.20 at 3:38 am

#88 AK, futures are way up, 200++. Somebodys buying obviously. Billions are being invested in a China Bat virus vaccine. Get your shades out, the future looks bright.

Trump is end running China and Europe in India. Yugggge news. India is anti China. Trump is forcing a pivot away from China. Our previous presidents were useless wankers, Trump’s got it right. We’ve been giving China a free run for decades, time to reign them in.

Namaste Trump. To answer your question, I wasn’t selling. I buy every time my dividend pmts come in, regardless of days market. One day means nothing. As issues run away I build into weakness of others instead of selling winners to rebalance so as to pay no tax.

Trump is glowing. Believe it, China is going to pay for it’s crazy behaviour and all the Masters of the universe crap.

#119 Of course on 02.25.20 at 4:19 am

RE: Doug t

Why wouldn’t a large international organization make preparations for an outbreak? “A pound of prevention is worth an ounce of cure”. You create plans for various scenarios, so you aren’t caught with your pants down if the worst happens as unlikely as that is. Standard stuff.
You should worry more about eating enough vegetables to stay healthy than what the World Bank might be up to.

#120 Howard on 02.25.20 at 5:33 am

#96 AACI Homedog on 02.24.20 at 9:18 pm
Is that a cat or a dog, dogs ?

—————————-

Obviously a cat. Those are nocturnal (or crepuscular) eyes.

#121 Howard on 02.25.20 at 5:38 am

#107 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 02.24.20 at 10:13 pm
Bernie’s policies are just insane.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/thoughts-bernie-sanders-tax-economic-proposal/

He will never be US President for many obvious reasons.

————————————-

I prefer Bernie over the assorted globalists / corporatists in the Democratic field.

However I find his proposal to forgive existing student debt grossly unfair. Anyone who dutifully paid off their debts should be furious at this idea.

#122 Franco on 02.25.20 at 7:20 am

This virus thing will be one of those missed opportunities earlier on the outbreak to do something meaningful about it. I suspect that this will be bad as we have introduced a new virus that will kill us, maybe not as many as some of the others, but kill it will and who knows if it will mutate to something bigger. Let’s hope we are not counted as some of it’s victims, being blase about it is not the way to go as some so called experts were saying earlier on.

#123 Steven Rowlandson on 02.25.20 at 7:28 am

“The confusion and chaos are set against the background of solid economic growth. Not so bad.”

What kind of growth? Debt? Real estate price inflation? Stock price inflation?
Or will it be something honest like work or savings?

Global GDP. – Garth

#124 SWL on 02.25.20 at 7:33 am

@ #104 Millennial Realist

Do you even comprehend what you type?

You babble on about boomers not being able to make it out to vote due to lack of health and ability while endorsing a guy for President who is 78 years old???

Democratic shifts are happening, but its too bad you can’t see the forest for the trees

Socialism: You can vote your way in, but you’ll have to shoot your way out

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 7:55 am

@#74 Shawn of the Dead wrong
“A new US housing boom is beginning.
That means higher real estate prices in Canada also. Maybe much higher.”
++++

Soooo in your way of thinking ……When the US housing Bust happened in 2009 Canada’s real estate prices should have gone lower…much lower”

Canuck prices did the exact opposite.

Canadian markets are localized, frothy, and not ALWAYS going uppa uppa uppa.
$1.1 million dollars for a mouldy tear down in a crappy East van neighbourhood …makes no sense at all …unless….

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/b-c-tells-inquiry-money-laundering-has-warped-economy-fuelled-opioid-crisis

This bubble will pop.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 8:02 am

@#104 Millenial unicorn.

“Feel the Bern…”
++++

60 years ago, in 1960, when Bernie was in his late teens…..if someone said that to him……he’d go see a doctor for a STD checkup.

#127 Phylis on 02.25.20 at 8:05 am

#104 Millennial Realist on 02.24.20 at 9:58 pm
Nope.
Your casual dismissal of Bernie is totally wrong, Garth.
He will win the White House if he stays in the race.
The wealth gap has simply grown far too wide

The only gap is between your ears. -someone had to say it. I wont do it again, promise.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 8:23 am

An interesting book ‘The New Landlords” written by an SFU Prof Donald Gutstein in 1990.
He predicted the foreign ownership of Canadian real estate due to Canadian political leadership’s endless quest for investment money and jobs….

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3436884-the-new-landlords

His latest book is on Big Oil and climate change and the Canadian political policies that got us here.

https://www.straight.com/news/1164161/justin-trudeaus-grand-bargain-big-oil-exposed-donald-gutsteins-big-stall

Voters that believe politicians …..the ultimate greaterfools.

#129 NoName on 02.25.20 at 8:26 am

I was listening to this on my way to work, very interesting. If you don’t have time for hole podcast, just play last 5-6min.

https://businessradio.wharton.upenn.edu/wharton-business-daily/

#130 Bezengy on 02.25.20 at 8:54 am

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz re: Money Laundering

– – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I keep looking for proof that the good guys are winning the war against money laundering associated criminal activity but I can never seem to find any. I doubt our judicial system is effective in dealing with this issue. Too much paper work, wasted time with long court battles, civil liberty violations, etc. I don’t see any numbers, are there any?

https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/gbs-spm/index-eng.html

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 8:54 am

Hmmm

Indonesia has 125 million people and almost zero CV19 cases….
Nigeria has over 100 million people and almost zero CV19 cases…
Pakistan , Egypt, India, all oddly….seem to have few or no cases of CV19.

Or is it …..they have a “dont test dont tell” policy.
Only the African continent knows for sure….

And then we have ….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/virus-literally-knocking-at-the-door-who-warns-countries-idUSKCN20J1GD

The World Health Organization stating the painfully obvious.
God bless bureaucrats and the myopic world they inhabit.

The Cruise Ship (Petri Dish) industry is already taking a hit.
Will the airline industry be next?
Interesting to see how foreign trade bounces back with Chinese factories still sitting in low gear.

Interesting times.

#132 Ubul on 02.25.20 at 9:33 am

#123 Steven Rowlandson on 02.25.20 at 7:28 am
“The confusion and chaos are set against the background of solid economic growth. Not so bad.”

What kind of growth? Debt? Real estate price inflation? Stock price inflation?
Or will it be something honest like work or savings?

Global GDP. – Garth

The impact is just becoming global, it is way too early to celebrate the solid economic growth of global GDP. So far the evidence is that economies of the growing number of affected countries with failed containment are getting paralyzed, regardless of the sophistication of the country or their health care system. Nobody knows even the economic impact of the China-dominated global supply chain.

#133 SoggyShorts on 02.25.20 at 9:43 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 8:54 am

Is there something about it not spreading as easily in hot weather? I tried Googling it but found nothing.
On the upside 16/16 cases cured here!

#134 Long-Time Lurker on 02.25.20 at 10:19 am

Canada burns while Emperor Justinius, um-ah, um-ah, plays his, um-ah, um-ah, fiddle.

#135 G on 02.25.20 at 10:33 am

Hi Garth,

Yes I agree with your “Those who panic and sell will regret it.”.

My fingers are crossed about your first sentence of the same paragraph. I’ll still be looking over the fence to see what happening in the neighbours yards. But doing so isn’t helpful if you panic easily. No need to panic ever. panic selling just cements loses, that will came back, by not panic selling.

The big long term picture is that the markets come back. And there is nothing ‘I’ can do to change the markets.
(If this time it’s wrong, and most likely it’s not going to be the end of the world kind of stuff, ‘I’ can’t change that either. It’s only money in the end after all.)

Having said that, some extra T-P paper and a bit of canned food on hand(don’t over do it.) doesn’t seem unreasonable until all the facts are in. You can always use it later if not needed, if your locked down for a few weeks.

I hope it’s mostly mild for most like the regular flu, and everyone stays mostly well. Hope it spread slowly so the people needing extra medial help will be able to have it. So far so good in Canada.

Signal source PPE (and stuff) from China doesn’t seem to be the brightest thing to have happened at the moment.

Washing your hands well and stop touching your face is a good thing to practice all the time anyway.

#136 T on 02.25.20 at 10:34 am

Love turn around Tuesdays.

SPXS is as nice well balanced diversified play.

#137 Yukon Elvis on 02.25.20 at 10:40 am

#104 Millennial Realist on 02.24.20 at 9:58 pm

Nope.

Your casual dismissal of Bernie is totally wrong, Garth.

He will win the White House if he stays in the race.
…………………….

Nope.
Now that the presidential campaign has exposed Bernie’s financial policies the polls will change and he will be sent down the road kicking stones.

#138 IHCTD9 on 02.25.20 at 10:48 am

I just bought a print for a gift for someone. “The Red Maple” by A.Y. Jackson, printed on canvas, and stretched on a frame, ready to hang. As I was admiring the thing, it dawned on me that basically zero of the dudes I deal with in the GTA would know who this guy is without having to google it. No biggie, but it’s still significant.

Immigration is 300K per year (not enough), and will need to climb to 500K or more annually to keep the government fed. Our abysmal 1.6 fertility rate is expected to keep dropping.

Trudeau is actually correct on this one observation – we are indeed heading towards a “post-national” state. A funny thing, because most new immigrants I talk to have a pretty well defined view of what Canada is, and this perception is part of what made their decision to come here. I tell them, “now that you’re here, you’d better clam up with all that stuff… ”

Since 2015, we see Canada just taking dive. Total freaking joke. Bunch of clowns smiling at themselves in the mirror. Ottawa is a comedy act, I read the news and I’m laughing like I’m watching Chris Rock on Netflix. Sock boy is going to leave Canadians without a shred of dignity, not to mention broke.

I kind of envy the younger dudes who see the Canada of today as normal. I on the other hand still remember dudes who would knock your teeth out if you got a little too mouthy about their country. Most of my uncles are like this – and most of ’em weren’t even born here.

Canada will probably end up a cultureless, transient, highly segregated, landing strip for the economic hopefuls of the world in time. That’s about it. Sounds real interesting and vibrant no? I got a feeling we’re going to see our stock of 5-6th generation Canadians start dropping like a stone going forward.

Immigration Canada better start hiring soon in their marketing dept…

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 10:55 am

@#133 Soggy
“Is there something about it not spreading as easily in hot weather? ”
++++

Yeah, Flu season seems to not be as bad during the warmer months. I’m not an epidemiologist so I can’t say why. People are outside more?
But the WW1 flu pandemic started in the Fall of 1918 as the war ended. Troops were shipped home…..all over the world.
A new “Spanish” named flu appeared in the Spring all over the world ( The Commonwealth countries ?). Started killing people and then faded over the Summer. The Fall of 1919 was the real bad season for dying.
Go to any cemetery thats more than 100 years old and note the headstones of 1919 …babies and elderly.

#140 Howard on 02.25.20 at 11:15 am

#136 T on 02.25.20 at 10:34 am
Love turn around Tuesdays.

SPXS is as nice well balanced diversified play.

——————————

Looks like you may have spoken too soon.

Perhaps whiplash Wednesday?

#141 Trudeau's my saviour on 02.25.20 at 11:19 am

BANNED

#142 G on 02.25.20 at 11:21 am

Hi #31 Sail away,

re: I hope you’re not the self-appointed medical authority in your social group…

This didn’t get much coverage on mass media news,
Nancy Patricia Pelosi at a news conference basically said, that she is a self-appointed part time practicing medical Doctor with out a license.

Re: poles, I never do/answerer poles, but do vote. If I’m just very unusual about doing poles, then the poles must be right most of the time. LOL

#143 Future Expatriate on 02.25.20 at 11:35 am

We’ve only just begun…. to crash
White lace and promises
Coronavirus we’re on our way
The Trümphole Boom is gone……

#144 Yuus bin Haad on 02.25.20 at 12:14 pm

Extinction Rebellion is considering taking on the fight against COVID-19 as it fits their narrative of “social and ecological collapse”. The thing is they’re having a hard time coming up with a suitable meme. One of the members suggested a giant surgical mask, but the executive didn’t think that would fly.

#145 Damifino on 02.25.20 at 12:18 pm

COVID-19 aside, Mister Global Market has determined Canada’s relentless carbon inquisition, vacuous leadership and abundance of commerce choking airheads make it a poor family destination. A fickle guy, is he.

#146 Captain Uppa on 02.25.20 at 12:19 pm

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.20 at 7:55 am

“This bubble will pop”.

———————————————-

LOL, are you guys seriously still believing that? How long will you keep this “hot take” for … 1 year? 2 years? 20 years? Deathbed?

#147 Captain Uppa on 02.25.20 at 12:26 pm

Close your eyes.

Now imagine there was a product that everyone needed to survive and 95% of people wanted to own outright.

Also imagine that they only made limited supply of that product, especially in its more ideal versions.

Open your eyes.

That’s real estate my friends. Affordability and what suits your finances is another debate, but RE will ALWAYS be a great asset.

#148 the Jaguar on 02.25.20 at 12:27 pm

Front page, National Post. Jonathan Kay just hit a home run. He has it exactly right.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jonathan-kay-canadas-cultural-elites-have-seen-the-enemy-and-it-is-canadians

#149 COVFEFE-19 on 02.25.20 at 12:43 pm

“Canada will probably end up a cultureless, transient, highly segregated, landing strip for the economic hopefuls of the world in time. That’s about it. Sounds real interesting and vibrant no?”

Sounds like the last 400 years, TBH. Or like NYC, Silicon Valley, any place that attracts talent from around the world and ends up with a lot of really good ethnic restaurants in lieu of a homogeneous cultural identity.

Take the places that most people think of as culture central — Italy, France, Japan, etcetera, and they’re stagnating. ‘Culture’ is often just the tourism industry’s marketing department.

Wanna nurture Canadian culture? Spend your money on an original by a living artist instead of on a reproduction of a dead one.

#150 conan on 02.25.20 at 1:01 pm

#81 Sail Away on 02.24.20 at 8:17 pm
Pretty sure Trump loses the Senate , more losses in the House, and his Presidency….

It does not matter which Democrat takes the ticket…. polls are saying even Bernie beats Trump, and I am confident the degree of victory will be larger then the polls are now saying.

#151 G on 02.25.20 at 1:10 pm

If interested, today’s posts from 2 different Dr.
(and on that AJ site, in South Korea,
‘The official was one of several individuals charged with overseeing the government’s response to the virus.’ was having a bad dad and jump off a bridge.)

Tuesday Morning Dr. John Campbell Feb 25 13min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL7oGRKETZM&t=3s

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 25: Vaccine Developments, Italy’s Response, and Mortality Rate Trends MedCram Feb 25 12min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UImSVhLLeGY

#152 Damifino on 02.25.20 at 1:10 pm

#149 the Jaguar

I completely agree about the Jonathan Kay article.

But man… how depressing.

#153 DFO on 02.25.20 at 1:13 pm

Sadly for the socialist-phobes on this blog, Bernie is polling very strongly among the ‘middle line’ Democrats polled.

He’s going to steamroll the primaries and take the presidency. Notice how Trump has a hard time attacking him, it’s because Bernie has been consistently compassionate and voted with his conscience his entire career. Trump can’t handle that kind of integrity and it’s going to throw him off. Oh and medicare for all and student debt forgiveness will motivate voters like hell. Imagine saving 6-10k a year – would you vote for that?

#154 T on 02.25.20 at 1:25 pm

#136 T on 02.25.20 at 10:34 am
Love turn around Tuesdays.

SPXS is as nice well balanced diversified play.

——————————

Looks like you may have spoken too soon.

Perhaps whiplash Wednesday?

_____________________

No—bought it on the 20th when it was obvious this was going to tank. Up 31% so far. Much more to come.

#155 just snootin' on 02.25.20 at 1:28 pm

I have been dealing with viruses, germs, bacteria, and cooties all my life, and this latest round is no different. There is a scare, then people get paranoid, then they start to change their behavior by disinfecting and limiting contact, then the disease pitters out.

I have rolled a larger boulder onto the driveway, though.

#156 T on 02.25.20 at 1:30 pm

DRIP is pushing 40% now as well. for 7 days of return.

Why? I dont know—maybe less oil demand=less profit for E&Ps?

underlying is XOP. A little late for companies to try the share buy back thing ala OXY CONCH APACH…all heading south…

#157 Dogman01 on 02.25.20 at 1:32 pm

#149 the Jaguar on 02.25.20 at 12:27 pm

Jonathan Kay just hit a home run. He has it exactly right.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jonathan-kay-canadas-cultural-elites-have-seen-the-enemy-and-it-is-canadians

——————————————

Oh my!

“the Canadian left honours Indigenous people more as noble-savage protest mascots than as flesh-and-blood humans with real economic needs.”

#158 Piano_Man87 on 02.25.20 at 1:34 pm

COVID-19: Approximately 2,628 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 24, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Imagine that. The flu kills about half a million people per year and no one bats an eye. Further proof that there is a difference between actual and perceived risk.

#159 just snootin' on 02.25.20 at 1:37 pm

You know the democratic socialism infecting US politics right now? We built that — signed Canada (the cute, but mischievious, pika up north).

#160 n1tro on 02.25.20 at 1:38 pm

#148 Captain Uppa on 02.25.20 at 12:26 pm
Close your eyes.

Now imagine there was a product that everyone needed to survive and 95% of people wanted to own outright.

Also imagine that they only made limited supply of that product, especially in its more ideal versions.

Open your eyes.

That’s real estate my friends. Affordability and what suits your finances is another debate, but RE will ALWAYS be a great asset.
——————-
That’s a weak analogy. You are conflating shelter with a house.

#161 confusimated on 02.25.20 at 1:54 pm

“Now, if we could only do something about the virus in the federal cabinet that is sickening Canada’s resource-based economy…”

I think you’re confused, Jason Kenney is provincial.

#162 Sail away on 02.25.20 at 2:19 pm

#159 Dogman01 on 02.25.20 at 1:32 pm

Jonathan Kay just hit a home run. He has it exactly right.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jonathan-kay-canadas-cultural-elites-have-seen-the-enemy-and-it-is-canadians

———————————-

Yep. National self-hatred. Apologists are so irritatingly infantile.

#163 Moller on 02.25.20 at 2:26 pm

#160 Piano_Man87 on 02.25.20 at 1:34 pm
Stop spreading misinformation. You can’t compare the death count of a single specific virus with multiple different strains of the influenza virus.

#164 Long-Time Lurker on 02.25.20 at 2:27 pm

>This should have been on every news-channel in Canada, yesterday. I didn’t see it. I only found it through Twitter. Emperor Justinius (Hail, Justin!) should make a nation-wide public announcement with the Chief Medical Officer on the pandemic and how to prepare for it.

Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic

“It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic.”

ELIZABETH PAYNE Updated: February 25, 2020

As novel coronavirus outbreaks spread across a growing list of countries, Canadians are being warned to prepare for a possible pandemic.

In a shift from previous messages, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Theresa Tam acknowledged Monday that Canada may no longer be able to contain and limit the virus if it continues to spread around the world. She said governments, businesses and individuals should prepare for an outbreak or pandemic.

“We are coming to similar conclusions,” agreed Dr. Vera Etches, the City of Ottawa’s top health officer, on Monday. “It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic. That would change the efforts to contain every last case and contact.”

Etches said people can take steps now, at home and at work, to prepare.

Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.

“Imagine if someone was ill for a week. What would you need?”

She said there are ongoing discussions about setting up an assessment centre outside of hospitals to reduce pressure on the health system.

“The global risk situation is evolving,” said Tam, noting that the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has grown beyond its epicentre in China to include rapid community spreading in several countries. “The window for containment is closing. These signs are worrisome.”….

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic

#165 Sail away on 02.25.20 at 2:28 pm

APT up 25% yesterday and another 18% today. 7-bagger since 2009.

In general, yes, markets are taking a dump. There’s nothing to do about that.

Holding the proper outliers in times of unrest is exciting.

#166 Long-Time Lurker on 02.25.20 at 2:29 pm

What I’m reading about Iran says that they’re not taking any quarantine measures; i.e., they’re not closing down their shrines.

One infected carrier could infect dozens of pilgrims at a shrine who would then carry the virus back to their home-towns. In fact, that might have already happened.

I think Iran is going to get hit harder than Red China did by the Covid-19 virus as a result.

#167 Doug in London on 02.25.20 at 2:41 pm

Looks kike a buying opportunity to me. I wonder, did Boxing Day sales come 2 months late or 10 months early?

#168 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 02.25.20 at 2:55 pm

#121 Howard on 02.25.20 at 5:38 am
#107 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 02.24.20 at 10:13 pm
Bernie’s policies are just insane.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/thoughts-bernie-sanders-tax-economic-proposal/

He will never be US President for many obvious reasons.

————————————-

I prefer Bernie over the assorted globalists / corporatists in the Democratic field.

However I find his proposal to forgive existing student debt grossly unfair. Anyone who dutifully paid off their debts should be furious at this idea.

———————-

Howard, you only find *one* of his policy insane? Man, his entire platform (when it comes to economy) is just plain nuts. No wonder he has gotten NOTHING done or accomplished in his entire time as a senator.

No wonder the Democrats are afraid that if he wins, they will definitely lose this November.

If Biden had been elected, it would be a close call, but with Sanders, the conclusion is foregone.

Sunshowers, you are wrong again. Soon enough, you will be proven wrong.

#169 YVR Expat on 02.25.20 at 2:56 pm

“Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are utterly, hideously, hilariously unelectable in a general election. Sanders isn’t even a Democrat. He only fills out the paperwork to say-so when he’s running for president. It isn’t simply that the pair espouse policies that most Democrats (to say nothing of independents or Republicans) are uncomfortable with. Warren made the mistake of issuing dozens of policy papers in which her apparent non-command of math was made eminently obvious. Sanders never pretended that his policies are bound by the laws of math. (This is the guy who turned what he joked was his honeymoon to the Soviet Union during the Cold War into an anti-US propaganda piece.) But since their politics are the sort that appeal to the sorts of people who show up for primaries, both continue to do well in the polls. Expect one to endorse the other in time (likely Warren backing Sanders) or even a joint ticket.” ~ Peter Zeihan

#170 Sail away on 02.25.20 at 3:19 pm

I propose banning all single-use facemasks due to environmental impact.

#171 James on 02.25.20 at 3:22 pm

#166 Long-Time Lurker on 02.25.20 at 2:27 pm

>This should have been on every news-channel in Canada, yesterday. I didn’t see it. I only found it through Twitter. Emperor Justinius (Hail, Justin!) should make a nation-wide public announcement with the Chief Medical Officer on the pandemic and how to prepare for it.

Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic

“It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic.”

ELIZABETH PAYNE Updated: February 25, 2020

As novel coronavirus outbreaks spread across a growing list of countries, Canadians are being warned to prepare for a possible pandemic.

In a shift from previous messages, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Theresa Tam acknowledged Monday that Canada may no longer be able to contain and limit the virus if it continues to spread around the world. She said governments, businesses and individuals should prepare for an outbreak or pandemic.

“We are coming to similar conclusions,” agreed Dr. Vera Etches, the City of Ottawa’s top health officer, on Monday. “It looks like it is going to be more and more difficult to contain this virus and it may well evolve into a pandemic. That would change the efforts to contain every last case and contact.”

Etches said people can take steps now, at home and at work, to prepare.

Some of those steps include stocking up on needed prescriptions ahead of time so there is no need to do so during a possible pandemic. She also recommended people stock up on non-perishable food.

“Imagine if someone was ill for a week. What would you need?”

She said there are ongoing discussions about setting up an assessment centre outside of hospitals to reduce pressure on the health system.

“The global risk situation is evolving,” said Tam, noting that the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has grown beyond its epicentre in China to include rapid community spreading in several countries. “The window for containment is closing. These signs are worrisome.”….

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadians-being-told-to-prepare-for-a-possible-novel-coronavirus-pandemic
_______________________________________
Our company cancelled a strategic technological meeting in Asia about three weeks ago and had it in London UK instead. Which in my opinion was a silly knee jerk move but not my call to avoid travel to Asia. Here is where it gets really stupid our Asian counterparts flew to London for the meeting. We had another meeting scheduled for March and we are using a Webinar from our teleconferencing room and we will save quite literally just under $10K in expenses. I have suggested this for years and now it appears that digital meetings may rule. Out counterparts in Asia are not happy as they like the traveling bit and spending money on expenses that they can not get away with at home. Can’t catch a virus from a projector screen and audio link. Besides no jet-lag and I get to see my three children at night.

#172 G on 02.25.20 at 4:06 pm

Hi #168 Long-Time Lurker, For interested persons.

Just finished watch the Dr. Bruce Aylward that just got back from China. Feb25 2hr11min

#GlobalNews
Coronavirus outbreak: WHO expert says countries must shift mindset to virus preparedness | FULL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o0q1XMRKYM

I noted a few thing and the time but not all of course.
Best to watch it yourself for full info. if interested.
I’m not quotation him at all here BTW, just some generals.
Most are mild cases.
China actions did seem to slow the spread rate down.
(I didn’t here anything to panic over, is my impression.)
I did here lost of get ready, get ready, you will see it here to some degree, maybe tomorrow, depending on how fast and ready you are to find it and keep it from spreading. Get ready, get ready

52-53min need to tell public about it now to maintain trust, and to get ready it is coming here, to some degree. Depending on the response, get ready, get ready…
1hr26min. Some of the numbers he had from China. Most are mild but not all. Quarantine did seem to slow the spread. But there are still are large numbers of people to treat! Graphs he showed are from China government.
1hr30min some are working and an oral vaccine and drug trials to treat really sick people.
1hr34min #of deaths, any death is a concern to him.
(good to here that from any Doctor)
1hr36 lessons to learn. virus is going to show up. think tomorrow. Plan now for it now, be ready.
1hr39 ready your people, tell them what to expect and how to get ready to slow the spread.
1hr40 Don’t need to buy a mask based on what they now presently. Health care workers will need them to treat the people that get really sick.
Most don’t get very sick, but # could grow quickly. Get ready if it does.
2hr07min Some people if infected can be walking about for up to 15 days spreading it before feeling sick.

Are we ready “no”. but need to get ready. Think your ready, keep getting ready, for the what if it spreads and numbers of people that might be involved. get ready
—-
It’s a new virus and we still don’t know a lot about it.
It is not the same as other seasonal flu virus, it new.

Most cases are mild.
(No need to panic is the impression I got.)
Get ready, get ready, get ready.
Tell the public how to get ready, so they don’t lose trust.
Get ready.

Hopefully Garth is correct again.
“So, the virus will likely get worse, then better. Central banks will intervene. Economies will spike back in the midst of pent-up demand. Markets will recover as the American election cycle draws to a conclusion. Corporate profits will continue. Interest rates will drop. People who ignore things will sail through. Those who panic and sell will regret it.”

#173 jess on 02.25.20 at 4:51 pm

Jack Abramoff: the political system is ‘corrupt, corrosive’

Jack Abramoff, former lobbyist convicted of conspiracy and one reason why the House Ethics Committee was created, discusses the tangled relationship between lobbyists, politicians and money.Jan. 3, 2017
===========================
The world’s biggest tax haven lurked behind a dos Santos penthouse

As scrutiny of her business empire increased, African billionaire Isabel dos Santos turned to one of the world’s most secretive tax havens to conceal a $1.8 million luxury apartment.
Angola froze more than $1 billion of her assets in December and Portugal froze dos Santos’ bank accounts in February. Dos Santos denies wrongdoing.

The dos Santos business records were obtained by the Platform to Protect Whistleblowers in Africa, and shared with ICIJ. The documents include almost 100 emails, invoices, electricity and sewage bills and property tax assessments that describe the Lisbon property and the Delaware company.

https://www.icij.org/investigations/luanda-leaks/the-worlds-biggest-tax-haven-lurked-behind-a-dos-santos-penthouse/

#174 G on 02.25.20 at 4:52 pm

Hi #173 James,
Any of the mysterious carbon credits you might be able to get credit for by not flying to company meetings now?
I assume the company has no plans to share the saving $ with the people in the meeting?
Of course not good if your job to pay the bills is in the service/food/taxi/airline… industry were the meeting were once held.

#175 Tony on 02.25.20 at 5:08 pm

Re: #173 James on 02.25.20 at 3:22 pm

I’ll let everyone know when Lukfook Jewellery reopens in Markville Mall. It had one of the first cases of the Corona virus in all of Canada.

#176 Mr Canada on 02.25.20 at 10:23 pm

All these people saying that Sanders will lose to Trump are ignoring the fact that Sanders has been consistently polling ahead of Trump in head to heads for the past 5 years, and Sanders has the highest approval rating of any politician in the country.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++T Trump is actually ahead of Saunders in the key swing states that have decided the last 5 elections. You think key swing state Florida with retired rich people and Latinos who fled Cuba will support a Communist ? How about Pennsylvania where Mad Bernie will ban fracking? Not.

#177 Decent Majority on 02.25.20 at 11:09 pm

#104 Millenial Realist. Your lack of understanding proves your age. People change as they get older. When you succeed through hard work and perseverance and actually have something you are unable to be a socialist or a parasite any more. Everybody gets older.