FoMo-20

Two years ago blog dog Jeremy bought an ugly house in a North York hood where most of the houses are, well, ugly. He paid $855,000 for a pile of bricks on a 25-foot lot.

This week a virtually identical house, also ugly, came to market. Twenty-five feet of dirt, renovated but with a leaky skylight (says our guy), plus cracked basement and lopsided floors. The price was $949,000, considered to be slightly below-market and engineered by the listing agent to create a bidding war among FOMO’d desperados.

It worked. There were 19 bids. It sold in a day or so, for $1,342,000.

“Has the world gone crazy?!?” Jeremy asks. And we know the answer. It appears to be starting. All. Over. Again.

Last week we told you about the battle between FOMO (fear of missing out) and FOSC (fear of selling cheap). This has resulted in a serious paucity of listings. Homeowners are apparently vexed. (a) They understand they cannot sell their home, no matter how big the windfall, and buy a better one in the same city because of price escalation. (b) Tons of people own houses worth a lot of money but they lack the income to pass the stress test in order to finance another one. Trapped. And (c) it’s all about greed. If prices are going up, why not wait and sell for more later?

Listings have plunged. In Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa. Meanwhile Covid-19, that pesky little pecker of a virus, has upped bond prices and dropped yields. So mortgages are cheap again, just in time for rutting season. This has some people thinking Spring of ’20 is going to smell a lot like that of 2016. FoMo-20.

At least, so says RBC (which, coincidentally, sells mortgages). Here’s its latest report:

Are Toronto home prices sky-bound again?

It’s looking more and more like early-2016 all over again for the Toronto housing market. This is not a good sign. Those were the days when things started to heat up uncomfortably, propelling property values sky-high in the ensuing year. January real estate board-level statistics show low inventories and further price acceleration… we could see the benchmark price (which rose at the annual rate of 8.7% in January, up from 7.3% in December) increase at a double-digit pace within the next couple of months if the market tightness persists. .. Worse, if supply shrinks even further, prices could spiral upward like they did in 2016 and earl 2017. The last thing the market needs right now is any policy move that would tighten things up even more—be it by restricting supply, or more importantly, by stimulating demand.

Hey, Chateau Bill and T2 – did you read that? Don’t goose demand, guys. No loosening up of the stress test. No new tax credit, moister-loving, newbie-buyer incentives. In fact, don’t even talk about it. And tear up that mandate letter from the PM to the Finance Department insisting mortgage rules be made “more dynamic.” Maybe ”more toxic” would be a better phrase.

Now, we know Toronto, southern Ontario, Montreal, Ottawa and places like London and Halifax are hot – low listings, bubbling demand and rising prices – but what about Vancouver, that socialist, tax-riddled paradise? Eitel Insights, the local property analyst guru, is forecasting average detached prices will sink further and soon take values back to 2015 levels, despite a big jump in January sales.

But the bank sees it differently, saying recent soft prices in Van are not because of a trend. Instead, it’s snow.

Weather was a big factor in January in Vancouver. Although the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported a significant 42% jump in home resales from a year ago, we figure activity fell materially (perhaps as much as 15% or 20%) from December on a seasonally-adjusted basis due to major snow storms that hit BC’s Lower Mainland region. So last month wasn’t a good read of the underlying trends, which we continue to view as strengthening. The benchmark price was still down (-1.2%) in January from a year ago but that’s about to change soon.

Wow. Sounds like the country’s biggest lender is blowing hard on the fire. Nothing like flames, conflagration, sparks and billowing smoke to fuel the FOMO. The result is 19 offers on a dodgy North York house fetching $400,000 over asking.

Of course all this adds to the steamingly monumental pile of debt we’ve accumulated. And it’s interesting the proportion of highly-indebted borrowers is exploding. That’s people with debt equal to at least 450% of what they earn. You know – the hip urbanites buying $900,000 houses for $1.34 million, who think they’re smart. Soon one in five borrowers will be in the club.

Source: www.Ratespy.com

Remember way back to yesterday’s post on retirement realities? The more debt piled on, the greater the debt service charges, the less people have for savings and investing for future cash flow. At the end of the day we all need income more than a roof. Leveraging up residential real estate when markets are hot might feel genius, but a one-asset strategy is rife with risk. Only buy real estate when you can afford it.

When’s that? Come back tomorrow.

160 comments ↓

#1 april on 02.12.20 at 3:37 pm

According to Ross Kay, Howestreet.com Feb 11, wait, you will be able to buy a home for less in a few months.

#2 Highlander on 02.12.20 at 3:37 pm

Seriously sad state of affairs. It would not surprise me if the new owners are about to take off to the sunny south to celebrate, all paid for (of course)by their credit cards

#3 april on 02.12.20 at 3:41 pm

The banks are in the lending business so naturally they’ll pump real estate. Surely any fool realizes that.

#4 Mr Blog Dog on 02.12.20 at 3:42 pm

Yupp no question that is happening in and around the KW area. The talking with family they said price are going nuts. Last year a nice SFD in Waterloo was running in 500-550 range, now they’re in the 600+ range. Just nuts!

#5 Rick Fast on 02.12.20 at 3:44 pm

The GTA housing bubble will pop by September 2020! Ka BOOM!!

#6 Herr Blog Dog on 02.12.20 at 3:44 pm

Yupp no question that is happening in and around the KW area. The talking with family they said price are going nuts. Last year a nice SFD in Waterloo was running in 500-550 range, now they’re in the 600+ range. Just nuts!

Rob Frankfurt

#7 JacqueShellacque on 02.12.20 at 3:45 pm

If you ever doubt that most people are stupid, consider this: RBC makes a billion dollars A MONTH in profit. Yet the taxpayer guarantees the mortgages RBC dishes out when DP is less than 20%, AND the homebuyer pays the insurance premium for this coverage! Worse – most “homeowners” probably wouldn’t touch bank stocks with a 10 foot pole. Talk about cascading disadvantages.

#8 The Wet One on 02.12.20 at 3:49 pm

When this house of cards blows up, it’s gonna be EPIC!!!!

#9 Stan Brooks on 02.12.20 at 3:50 pm

Somebody loaned that money. Let me guess: A bank.
And somebody ‘insured it’. Let me guess: CHMC.
Thanks to zero interest rates, courtesy of BoC.
Down-payment from withdrawn RRSPs.

Soon 1.34 million for such ‘luxurious’ living will be nothing. Do I see 5 millions? Why not 10?

And remember: There is no inflation.

Just influx of billionaires who want to live in this ‘executive luxury’ home in the very centre of the universe. Supply and demand folks, chateau bill and socks boy have nothing to do with that.

Cheers,

#10 Dustin on 02.12.20 at 3:55 pm

Garth, a couple months ago, your Porsche driving partner with a trophy wife wrote not to short the banks, but if we’re approaching a 10% loan default rate, and people can’t afford any kind of hiccup in the economy, there might be some people thinking about shorting the big 5.

That would be foolish. – Garth

#11 Alberta Ed on 02.12.20 at 4:03 pm

T2 and Chateau Bill really don’t care about anything except getting re-elected. And I’m not sure if T2 reads.

#12 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 02.12.20 at 4:03 pm

I wonder what crashing fertility rates in Canada and globally our going to do to housing prices.

According to a book I read called “Empty Planet” birth rates are falling a lot faster than predicted and the only thing creating population growth is rising life expediencies.

#13 Linda on 02.12.20 at 4:07 pm

Besides overpaying for housing in the ‘hot’ markets, there is also the fact that newer builds are almost always on shrinking lot sizes. So no matter what, one is paying more for less. Back in the 1980’s the ‘average’ lot size was 45X120; older neighborhoods had lots that averaged 60×120. Nowadays most new builds are on lots that average 30×100 or less. Not much yard left over once the house is built, that is for sure.

#14 Rick Fast on 02.12.20 at 4:09 pm

Hey Garth, the government should increase the inclusion rate of capital gains on non-primary residences from 50% to 125%. This will take away speculation.

#15 paddy on 02.12.20 at 4:13 pm

“They understand they cannot sell their home, no matter how big the windfall, and buy a better one in the same city because of price escalation”……

Pretty simple solution: Sell your house and get the [email protected]#$ outa the GTA. That POS house sold for 1.3 mil….they truly are delusional or have some sort of mental illness.

#16 Lee on 02.12.20 at 4:27 pm

#10 Dustin,

The big 5 have been flat for the last 2 years. Maybe not short. But maybe just be careful. I don’t expect 15% year over year ROI like in the past for a long time for these stocks.

#17 IHCTD9 on 02.12.20 at 4:27 pm

We were just talking about how ******* stupid Canadians are, and here we go – 1.34 Mil for what appears to be a 150-200K house just about anywhere else on the Planet.

I’m not sure how much further they can push prices, but 2.5 Mil for a dump like in the pic would have me on the edge of my seat, cheering them on.

3.0 Mil for a trash dump crap pile GTA hole would start having me flinch a bit. Just like you would when you have to block off the intake on a run-away 6V-71 Detroit Diesel screaming at redline.

Whatev – I’ll be here watching the mushroom cloud when it begins to rise. Maybe we should start a list of these goof buyers for later. We could put ’em on T-shirts with catchy slogans under their faces after losing 500 grand on an attempted house flip LOL!

#18 Piano_Man87 on 02.12.20 at 4:29 pm

Don’t forget about: FOLT and FOLV (Fear of Leaving Toronto, and Fear of Leaving Vancouver). What I don’t get is the people who refuse to leave these places despite long commutes and astronomical house prices.

$1.4M for that hunk of crap? There is a similar but better quality home than that for sale next to downtown Saskatoon. Listed for $340K. It won’t sell. Too old (100 years), lot is considered too narrow. Been on the market for almost a year.

Sure, there’s location. But when you actually look at the PHYSICAL thing you buy and think about what it costs, it just does not make sense.

#19 Mattl on 02.12.20 at 4:30 pm

If only Jeremy had rented the past two years, he would be much farther ahead.

#20 the Jaguar on 02.12.20 at 4:31 pm

Meanwhile, back in Cowtown where men are men and sheep are nervous, nosy types who surf listings across the country for their amusement and as a sleep remedy found an inner city condo listed for 245m, approx 550 square feet with all the stylish amenities the milennials deeply desire. Sales history for an identical unit in the building? Listed Nov 2017 335m, relisted Feb 2018 for 315m, relisted April 2019 279,900, dropped to 249,900 later that same month. No idea what happened to that one. What a difference a year or two makes when the economy turns south in a once booming metropolis. Govern yourselves accordingly wherever you might live.

#21 the Jaguar on 02.12.20 at 4:33 pm

To clarify previous post, the listing is Calgary.

#22 Lee on 02.12.20 at 4:33 pm

By the looks of the house, I think that if these people paid $1,342,000 with 25% down they will be paying $5,000 a month to carry the place, not including media costs, for the type of house 13 of my relatives lived in in the 1960s, because that was all they could afford on minimum wage at the time. I think this guy should pretty much never expect the house to go up in value during his life time, even against inflation.

#23 Doug t on 02.12.20 at 4:43 pm

FOMO -LMFAO WTF OMG FUBAR FFS FML

#24 Where's My Money Gone Guideaus? on 02.12.20 at 4:44 pm

DELETED

#25 Mattl on 02.12.20 at 4:44 pm

And it’s interesting the proportion of highly-indebted borrowers is exploding. That’s people with debt equal to at least 450% of what they earn

—————————————————————–

I’m not into leverage like this – we are at about 1.75x on our mortgage debt. But maybe these people have it right? Why not go big when money is free?

#26 wallflower on 02.12.20 at 4:48 pm

volatility everywhere
climate change
housing

how to square housing crazy with record-breaking bankruptcies

it’s all amok

#27 I believe everything on the internet on 02.12.20 at 4:48 pm

Two years ago a reader of the blog bought a house when prices were synthetically suppressed by the same entities that pumped the market. He ignored your advice and today is sitting on a very valuable asset. The stress test was an obvious fraud: it put the focus on the ‘credit worthiness’ of our borrowers, at a time when defaults were virtually non existent.

#28 Stone on 02.12.20 at 4:55 pm

#14 Rick Fast on 02.12.20 at 4:09 pm
Hey Garth, the government should increase the inclusion rate of capital gains on non-primary residences from 50% to 125%. This will take away speculation.

———

Actually, my recommendation would be that the difference between the purchase price and selling price (minus inflation and any documented and municipally authorized improvements to the home) goes to the provincial or federal gouvernment.

Yes, I’m saying the property owner does not profit in any shape or form on it. If that happens, I guarantee with 100% certainty that house prices will never rise again. For eternity and beyond.

And through that, at least in the short term, gouvernment deficits and debts are taken care of.

Your welcome.

#29 Damifino on 02.12.20 at 5:06 pm

Run Away!!!

#30 Yukon Elvis on 02.12.20 at 5:07 pm

Told ya.

#31 Niagara Region on 02.12.20 at 5:12 pm

Question re: CDIC insurance on RRSPs used to buy bank shares

I just bought Class A shares (shares/securities in the bank) at the Meridian Credit Union. The salesrep said that the RRSP money I used to buy some of the shares is guaranteed by the CDIC in the unlikely event that the Meridian Credit Union goes under. Does anyone know if this is true? The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Ontario will not insure that money. (I have until the end of the month to cancel the purchase.) Thank you.

Of course not. – Garth

#32 Mattl on 02.12.20 at 5:22 pm

#17 IHCTD9 on 02.12.20 at 4:27 pm
We were just talking about how ******* stupid Canadians are, and here we go – 1.34 Mil for what appears to be a 150-200K house just about anywhere else on the Planet.

I’m not sure how much further they can push prices, but 2.5 Mil for a dump like in the pic would have me on the edge of my seat, cheering them on.

3.0 Mil for a trash dump crap pile GTA hole would start having me flinch a bit. Just like you would when you have to block off the intake on a run-away 6V-71 Detroit Diesel screaming at redline.

Whatev – I’ll be here watching the mushroom cloud when it begins to rise. Maybe we should start a list of these goof buyers for later. We could put ’em on T-shirts with catchy slogans under their faces after losing 500 grand on an attempted house flip LOL!

————————————————————-

All due respect the comments on this blog have been calling purchases like this dumb for years. Guys like Jeremy would have been ridiculed 2 years ago and he is up 400K in 2 years (yes I know there are expenses, so lets call it 300k tax free). How long did it take you to put 300k away?

And that house would be worth nothing in most cities, but TO is not most cities. Some of you will need to realize that the dirt below it has serious value. Whether you want to live in North York – I don’t – or not, there are lots of people that want to get into these hoods.
That house would be worth 200K in Winnipeg, but 2MM in San Fran, 3MM in NY, 2MM in Kits, etc etc. There are LOTS of cities globally where 1.3MM would be a deal.

Don’t get me wrong, this is not for me, but we’ve been calling these people idiots for a decade and those that have stretched to buy these places, have for the most part done very well. I have a bunch of people in my peer group that were laughed at for buying overpriced homes in YVR, that 12 years later are sitting on a gold mine. This one idiot bought into East Van when none of us would live there. Sold that place at a 600K profit, bought a crazy expensive Yaletown condo, and is now mortgage free on 1.6MM in property. In 15 years.

What an idiot eh? If only he had rented, or lived in the sticks….

#33 Linda on 02.12.20 at 5:26 pm

Regarding renting vs. purchasing. Seems like most urban centers (cities) in Canada average $1,000 per month to rent a 1 bedroom apartment. YVR/GTA charge the highest rents overall with monthly rents running from $1,500 to $2,300, whereas rents in Saskatoon run $800. Advice to reduce costs by moving to less expensive locales frequently doesn’t translate into lower rents, since supply in smaller locations tends to be limited. As per one site I looked at, the only parts of Canada where monthly utility & rental costs are considered ‘affordable’ – defined as requiring less than 30% of monthly income – are the NW Territories & Inuvut. Rather daunting to say the least.

#34 Bezengy on 02.12.20 at 5:26 pm

#31 Niagara Region on 02.12.20 at 5:12 pm
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
These shares may not be that liquid. Actually I’m looking for a buyer for mine if you’re interested. I once read you’re better off with ETF’s in a diversified portfolio.

#35 greyhound on 02.12.20 at 5:30 pm

Maybe all that money being printed by the ECB, BOJ, SNB, Fed and PBOC, among others, could have something to do with crazy inflated prices?

#36 Debtslavecreator on 02.12.20 at 5:44 pm

CU class A shares ARE NOT insured

If the CU goes bust you could lose your money

And the “dividends” (taxed as interest if held outside a registered plan) are not guaranteed

And you can only sell IF other CU members are interested in buying

No guarantee of liquidity even though most of the time there has been enough buyers to meet sellers

#37 Sooooo 2009 on 02.12.20 at 5:46 pm

So 2020 may be like 2016, which was like every following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – price appreciation. Look at how many markets have had exponential increases in prices.

The perpetual warning about indebtedness, rising interest rates, interventionist policies to reduce demand, owners hanging on by a thread were all for want. Not even a hint of a minor correction in the hottest markets, and any corrections are minimized by the massive gains in real estate.

With the minor exception of Calgary’s minuscule decline in prices, every market has seen price appreciation.

Those who have cautiously sat on the sidelines are forever financially behind owners. And while its ‘not a competition,’ the reality is that the negative nellies and fiscally conservative are poor off for their caution.

The only real source of wealth generation in Canada for the past two decades has been real estate – and that will never change.

A categorically wrong statement. – Garth

#38 Nonplused on 02.12.20 at 5:56 pm

#31 Niagara Region

RRSP’s are not insured against losses on any assets held in them, but they are segregated and must take possession of the shares. What this means is that if your bank/broker/credit union goes under and stops operating your RRSP’s will simply move to another broker and you won’t lose anything. However if you take loses on the equities themselves you are on your own.

RRSP’s were set up this way by law specifically so that people wouldn’t lose their retirement funds in the event of a bankruptcy of the broker. Not all broker accounts are like this though. For example a regular margin account allows the broker to “lend” your shares to short sellers and if the broker goes under the chances that your shares will be recovered is less than 100%.

#39 akashic record on 02.12.20 at 5:58 pm

The country’s biggest lender is blowing hard on the fire. Nothing like flames, conflagration, sparks and billowing smoke to fuel the FOMO. The result is 19 offers on a dodgy North York house fetching $400,000 over asking.

Does this blowing hard on the fire create the same flames in Lunenburg? If not, what’s the difference?

Fish. – Garth

#40 Apoplectic on 02.12.20 at 6:00 pm

It seems China has found a way to battle Covid-19 and prevent an economic catastrophe! They are quarantining workers in the factory now! How that is going to work is anyone’s guess but it makes no sense to me.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/what-happened-after-one-chinese-company-rushed-reopen-after-corona-chaos

I think I would just stay home.

#41 G on 02.12.20 at 6:11 pm

COVID 19 12 Feb Dr. John Campbell 17min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1BZLkb3710

COVID – 19 Definitions Dr. John Campbell Feb12 19min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v16llL6YspY

Published on Feb 12, 2020
The leading cruise ship operator in Asia, Carnival Corporation & plc, reported Wednesday that if it was forced to suspend all cruise operations from ports in China and across Asia until the end of April due to the recent outbreak!

#42 Condo on 02.12.20 at 6:17 pm

2 bedroom condo cost in North York at Yonge-Finch area varies 700k-1.1M. Half of residents in these condos are tenants. So the quality of living is expected to be similar to well maintained apartment building.
Now math comparison:
Apartment building rent of 2 bdrm – $1,700-$1900 per month.
$1M Condo with 80% mortgage will cost:
Mortgage payment -$4,200
Taxes – $200
Maintenance Fee – $800
Plus property transfer tax plus agent commission when you sell = effective cost per month in assumption you will sell in 5 years: $50k / 60 months = $900,
So the total monthly cost of condo: $6,100 vs $1700 in the building in addition to loss of opportunity to generate interest by $200k of down-payment (about $500 monthly).
Who, then, in right mind would by condo and face risk of prices correction or/and special assessments?

#43 yorkville renter on 02.12.20 at 6:17 pm

G&M showed a house that sold for $1mm over ask.. and the ask was under $1.5mm

The agents in that deal are laughing their way to the bank at the expense of the buyer

It was priced about a million below market. Don’t be so gullible. – Garth

#44 Marcella Zoia on 02.12.20 at 6:21 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if a one-bedroom in Toronto skyrockets from $1,800 to $3,000 a month in a few years. There are so many factors in play

#45 Igor on 02.12.20 at 6:23 pm

This will end up badly. Total collapse in 10 – 15 years?

#46 Bob Dog on 02.12.20 at 6:24 pm

On the weekend I found listing sign across the street from where I live. Robson and Granville area. Close to everything but not a nice area and very noisy.

The listing was for 500 sq ft unit in a condo tower for $700,000. I live across the street in a 640 sq ft rental tower with the same quality and age.

Mortgage payment on the condo is about $3,345.13 per month plus $1,300 per year in tax and $300 per month in maintenance fees.

I pay $1,900 per month rent with no tax and no maintenance fee.

Canadians sure are dumb.

#47 Ian from Oshawa on 02.12.20 at 6:29 pm

This is just crazy! House prices just cannot continue to go up. Who can afford $4,000 a month mortgage? Maybe I’m a bad person, but when this implodes, there’s going to be a part of me that laughs at the people who buried themselves in a debt that will be an anchor around their neck forever. This will end in tears.

#48 akashic record on 02.12.20 at 6:32 pm

#39 akashic record on 02.12.20 at 5:58 pm

The country’s biggest lender is blowing hard on the fire. Nothing like flames, conflagration, sparks and billowing smoke to fuel the FOMO. The result is 19 offers on a dodgy North York house fetching $400,000 over asking.

Does this blowing hard on the fire create the same flames in Lunenburg? If not, what’s the difference?

Fish. – Garth

Local vs import?

#49 G on 02.12.20 at 6:35 pm

re: glyphosate toxicity studies , ‘by replacing dead animals with living ones…’, Got an email today in part:

“A new study reveals that the Laboratory of Pharmacology and Toxicology (LPT) Hamburg committed fraud in a series of regulatory tests, several of which had been carried out as part of the glyphosate re-approval process in 2017. Even though “Good Laboratory Practice” (GLP) certification is required for such studies, at least 14% of such glyphosate regulatory studies came from LPT Hamburg.

The laboratory was caught manipulating GLP toxicity studies by replacing dead animals with living ones, changing tumour findings to “inflammations”, and
generally distorting the data to please its clients. It is

highly concerning that GLP studies are still considered the golden scientific standard by regulatory authorities who seem to believe that cheating under GLP is impossible.”…

#50 IM in C on 02.12.20 at 6:41 pm

I get regular email listings of SF houses in the 350k to 600k range here in Calgary. What i;m noticing is, they are not selling . They languish for weeks and weeks , often with a minuscule drop in price. But what is interesting is the number of listings that are withdrawn, (not rented or sold) It tells me that they are getting no offers, or worse yet getting aggressively low balled. More importantly , it shows me that people can sit on their houses and not sell. Real estate is not a supply and demand market.

#51 IM in C on 02.12.20 at 6:46 pm

#47 Ian from Oshawa. You wrote : “This is just crazy! House prices just cannot continue to go up.”
Guess what, I saw this same comment 10 years ago when I first started reading Garth’s blog, and I have seen it in the comments section every week since !!

Debt has paced prices. The risk is now enormous. Look what the real estate fetish has done to retirement income. – Garth

#52 Kurt on 02.12.20 at 6:50 pm

#28 Stone on 02.12.20 at 4:55 pm
That is an interesting proposal, not because it is practical, but because it illuminates the underlying problem. With your proposal in place, not just for residential land, but for all land, real estate speculation would be dead. No-one would buy land unless they intended to use it for themselves, whether to live upon or to build a factory or a parking lot. We think of land like a chattel, like a car or a TV, but it’s really a shared resource, like rivers, lakes and air (our current system of environmental regulations confirms this interpretation – you are *not* free to pollute the soil, and will be held legally accountable for it, sooner or later.) Our current system kinda-sorta works, but evolved from a cruel and exploitive system of serfdom, to serve a hereditary aristocracy. Our emotional and legal relationship with land is still tangled up with that legacy. Thanks for making me think!

#53 the ryguy - In cabo on 02.12.20 at 6:51 pm

Don’t get me wrong, this is not for me, but we’ve been calling these people idiots for a decade and those that have stretched to buy these places, have for the most part done very well.

———————————————————————-
I’d agree with you if there weren’t so many numbskulls using all that ‘hard earned equity’ to finance the rest of their lifestyle.

Even still this is disastrous for the area..I wont say country but however far that bubble expands is in trouble. Without a corresponding increase in wages (lol) how would a person ever expect to sell? Ah well, I’ll also be watching for the mushroom cloud, I just don’t see how it can go differently. Meanwhile my non registered account made more than enough profit to max out the RRSPs this year..so the grass is pretty green on this side too.

#54 Howard on 02.12.20 at 6:51 pm

I really need to convince my Boomer parents to sell their North York house this spring. If that dump got $1.3mil, I figure my parents’ house could fetch close to $2mil. I don’t think I’ll be successful though. They don’t ever want to leave the place.

#55 TurnerNation on 02.12.20 at 6:54 pm

Something for the immuno-specialists and public health experts in this weblog’s comments section.
In the face of a global outbreak did Canada exercise an abundance of caution and screen or quarrantine high risk flights? NO
Did This country take a measured approach to enhanced screening protocols? NO
Did people push for special night markets and dinners – in the midst of an outbreak – to signal virtue and counter hurt feelings? YES

Ps MF stay away from primates you might acquire an immune deficiency disease LOL – it’s just ‘science’.

………..

People are not fretting over CPP and OAS. They know they condo they bought for $500 square foot now is worth $1000. The one they bought for $1000 will run $1500. With never-ending engineered influx of people and densifcation condos will run $2000/sq foot in 5 years time.
Just. Buya. Da House.
Semis to run 1.5m to 2 mill for even a townhouse in a few year’s time.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/02/toronto-getting-tallest-condo-building-canada/

Prices start at “just over $800,000,” according to Pinnacle, which makes sense given the building’s primo address and expected architectural significance

#56 Victoria on 02.12.20 at 6:54 pm

I don’t see this ever ending. Keeps on going and going. LOL

Just in case though we sold our house and are now renting.

#57 Shawn Allen on 02.12.20 at 7:00 pm

Crying about bankers

#149 Eks dee Siple on 02.12.20 at 10:35 am said:

“We are in debt to the private banking cartel.”

*******************************

First, there is no “we” in economics.

Second, “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em”

Third, “if you can’t join ’em, beat ’em.

#58 poy on 02.12.20 at 7:01 pm

2 years ago, you were telling people to get out of real estate and go in a balance portfolio. Good thing he didnt listen to you. no way a balanced portfolio can beat those gains

That was never the advice. In any case financial assets have given a far higher return recently than residential real estate. So you’re 0 for 2. – Garth

#59 Cottingham a bargain on 02.12.20 at 7:03 pm

I am guessing that the RE naysayers and bubble heads on this blog continue to maintain their respective positions simply because they have been so dead wrong in this bull market and cannot admit their respective mistakes . You have all simply “ dug in” in a terribly stubborn way .

Really , the thing you all need to understand is that 1) you convince nor change anyone else of your bias 2) you hurt no one but yourself.

Bottom line and as Garth has said , buy a house if you can . You won’t regret it

Actually I said buy a house if you need one, and can afford it. – Garth

#60 akashic record on 02.12.20 at 7:10 pm

18:55 ET

China’s Hubei province admits a massive spike in virus cases and deaths (14,840 additional cases and 528 additional deaths)

#61 FOMO Again? on 02.12.20 at 7:19 pm

Today’s post makes it sound like prices were actually affordable in 2017,2018 and 2019.

Did I miss all the bargains? $855K plus $200k in renos for that pile of crap 2 years ago. Damn it, how did I miss it??? What a steal.

#62 G on 02.12.20 at 7:23 pm

Some may find this info informative. 1 hour

“The truth about mobile phone and wireless radiation” — Dr Devra Davis The University of Melbourne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwyDCHf5iCY&t=2s

#63 Chaddywack on 02.12.20 at 7:26 pm

I wonder if the price paid for that house has anything to do with Justin’s legal………puff puff pass….naw forget that puff puff puff puff puff….. $1.3M offer signed.

#64 Barb on 02.12.20 at 7:31 pm

RBC should first fix their online banking system. It’s been up and down (mostly down) for weeks. They’re blaming Firefox, but “insiders” say that ain’t it.

Probably still looking for the guy that greenlit that steaming bag of excrement they call their online system.

#65 G on 02.12.20 at 7:36 pm

LATEST nCoV19 UPDATE: WHAT WE ARE NOT BEING TOLD? DeceptionBytes Feb 12 1hr
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWzyY1VvTes

#66 You know val on 02.12.20 at 7:36 pm

Yup it’s all smoke and mirrors.

#67 You know val on 02.12.20 at 7:39 pm

Hey Garth, what’s the scope on all this talk about supply chain disruption due to the Corona virus?

#68 IHCTD9 on 02.12.20 at 7:56 pm

#32 Mattl on 02.12.20 at 5:22 pm
—- —

Yes there are lots of stories about peeps making a fortune in GTA/YVR RE. There are also lots of stories about peeps getting absolutely flayed by same. Flop had a non stop stream of verified listings where peeps hemorrhaged 200, 400, 600 grand and more via YVR flips gone off the rails. That’s a loss just on the selling price too, much more was lost on top through the transactional bleeding.

These gta doorknobs that paid 1.34 might make a killing. They also might get their throats slit. 50/50 odds absolute best case (50/50 is too generous really, the ship has sailed on the widespread big gains in a short time. There’s a great chance this was over exuberance and an isolated – horrifying mistake). Yes they are idiots. They are banking on massive appreciation, that’s the only road they got.

It took us a long time to sock away 300k, but we never had to sweat bullets to get to that point. We’ll get to our destination without triggering a stroke, and with a 95% probability of success. It’ll be a big pile at the end, and we never had to risk it all to get there.

Lots of peeps got rich on Bitcoin too, and lots got disemboweled. Luck divides the two extremes, and these dudes who bought that dump for 1.34 are going to need a dump truck load of it.

#69 Ronaldo on 02.12.20 at 7:57 pm

Someone just made off like a bandit and has their retirement taken care of. Suckers who bought.

#70 DrC on 02.12.20 at 8:01 pm

Garth, when you and the rest will finally understand a simple thing: while the party in power wants votes and support, you’ve got to keep the majority happy! That’s it! The houses in the big cities by no means will ever ever ever(!!!!) go down on a long run, ant this is what 99.9% of the people think as well. The home owners don’t care about making money on the house as they care on not losing money, and bringing the prices to 2017 levels is what everybody wants (well, most of everybody). You can talk about the great indebtedness, or the insane prices or whatever else, but most of the people still think houses is one of the “SAFEST” investments (“safest” as in won’t go down, and don’t care if it goes up not as much as the stock market). Besides you get a place to live, how’s that for a bonus? Today when we get into the negative credit rates and overly saturated market with cheap money, there’s nothing else to expect. P.S. I don’t own a house and probably never will, and I’m happy about it.

#71 Shawn allen on 02.12.20 at 8:24 pm

Christie Blatchford

I am one of the few that still gets a newspaper.

National post / financial post. Christie Blatchford is truly a loss for Canadians.

#72 april on 02.12.20 at 8:29 pm

#70- There’s always been ups and the downs in the real estate market. House prices in the big cities decrease by huge amounts.. already happened in Vancouver. This time it’s not different much as some people want to us to think.

#73 Nonplused on 02.12.20 at 8:32 pm

#54 Howard

In the same way the young should actively resist any financial advice they get from their helicopter parents, so should the parents resist any advice they get from their probably self-interested helicopter kids. I want to introduce that concept: “Helicopter kids”. It is every bit as much of a problem as “helicopter parents”. Leave your parents alone. If they succeeded in the Monopoly game that is life, and you didn’t, they probably don’t need your advice.

Remember, folks, advice, like anything else, is worth what you pay for it. If you aren’t getting paid realize anything you say probably isn’t worth a dime. A wise man holds his tongue and creates doubt as to his wisdom. A fool opens his mouth and removes all doubt.

Or as my dad used to say “If you are so smart, why aren’t you rich?” He doesn’t say that to me anymore though. I did ok. STEM education.

#74 IHCTD9 on 02.12.20 at 8:48 pm

#69 Ronaldo on 02.12.20 at 7:57 pm
Someone just made off like a bandit and has their retirement taken care of. Suckers who bought.
—-

Yes sir, a picture of both a winner and a loser in a single frame (probably).

#75 Nonplused on 02.12.20 at 8:51 pm

Medicare will also fail just like CPP & OAS. And for similar reasons.

When Medicare for all was created in Canada, there were no heart transplants, kidney dialysis, HIV treatments, or 85 year old patients. It’s gotten a lot more expensive.

#76 Real estate on 02.12.20 at 9:06 pm

Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?

You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !

Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!

#77 Sold Out on 02.12.20 at 9:08 pm

#64 Barb on 02.12.20 at 7:31 pm
RBC should first fix their online banking system. It’s been up and down (mostly down) for weeks. They’re blaming Firefox, but “insiders” say that ain’t it.

Probably still looking for the guy that greenlit that steaming bag of excrement they call their online system.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I have had zero problems on Chrome.

#78 TurnerNation on 02.12.20 at 9:08 pm

Subprime slime!

Record results out.

During the quarter, the company generated a record $314-million of total loan originations, up 18 per cent from the $265-million in the fourth quarter of 2018. The increased originations led to growth in the loan portfolio of $75-million, which reached $1.11-billion at the end of the quarter, up 33 per cent from $834-million as at Dec. 31, 2018.”
….
“goeasy, a Canadian company, headquartered in Mississauga, Ont., provides non-prime leasing and lending services through its easyhome and easyfinancial divisions. ”

*******************
Don’t blame foreigners blame subprime locals:

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Feb. 8, edition that alternative mortgage companies are increasingly providing riskier loans, a new report from the national housing agency says. The Globe’s Rachelle Younglai writes that among large mortgage investment corporations and mortgage investment entities, the percentage of first mortgages in their portfolios fell from 88 per cent in 2017 to 77 per cent in 2018, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said. That means a greater share of their portfolios are second or third mortgages, which are riskier than the original mortgage on the property, the CMHC said.
…[Stress Test] Thus borrowers had to turn to alternative lenders.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#79 Steven Rowlandson on 02.12.20 at 9:33 pm

I think lending rules need to be tightened up especially for mortgages and how much people should pay for a home. The market does not curb bad behavior it facilitates it. Implementing my version of the three years pay rule would be a good start. Home and property ownership for citizens only. Serious limits on residential rents and if need be the whole rental business might have to be expunged in favor of home ownership… Only adult canadian males can own real estate and one property per eligible male citizen.
It is time to defend the common good and the survival of the species or the nation.

#80 Nothing Surprises on 02.12.20 at 9:39 pm

I’m retired and advising and consulting to my son.

His company is selling in Southwestern Ontario, 2 to 3 bedroom homes during the past 18 months for $80,000 to $130,000 depending on the size, with monthly costs $500 to $900, plus utilities.
Not in large urban areas. Small towns.

The retiring Boomers make a killing selling their city place for big bucks investing the majority and enjoying life.

We have no shortage of buyers, however I can’t tell you where, as Garth has rules against commercial advertising on this blog and I fully respect this rule or you would have all kinds trying to sell things.

I just wanted to let people know there are homes if you’re willing to move.When we were young and starting out we were willing to go anywhere!!

#81 Jen on 02.12.20 at 9:44 pm

Hi Garth,

Been reading since 2012. Feels like I should get something for that. I avoided buying in Toronto at first listening to your blog but then sort of went against you and bought in Vaughan. Wasn’t a great decision but thought I was being prudent. Sold 3 years later and broke even. Then bought in Toronto proper and was much better financial decision except the 8/10 school was terrible. Neighbors agreed but enjoyed the benefits of being gen X and buying into the neighborhood for nothing and using property appreciation values for second muskoka home. It wasn’t what I wanted and couldn’t justify private school at our tax rate so sold for 400k more than bought 3 years ago and moved to the USA. Schools are way better. Kids learn hard facts. No socialist agenda. No strikes. But def no gains like Toronto and property taxes are insane (why don’t they just raise property taxes to give to those teachers?) anyways, I invest now in Maga stocks and hope for the best. No idea why i still read your blog. Maybe hoping Toronto gets what it deserves one day. Goodnight.

#82 DON on 02.12.20 at 9:46 pm

Mentioned by another blog dog weeks ago.

Ontario house prices increasing, Vancouver not so much. Lots of factors at play and no doubt this one to some extent>

https://globalnews.ca/news/6472635/money-laundering-ontario-cash-transactions-bc-casino-crackdown/

“As British Columbia’s government rolled out new laws aimed at cracking down on massive, questionable transactions flowing through casinos on Canada’s West Coast, the number of suspicious cash investigations in Ontario’s casinos more than doubled in 2018, a Global News investigation has found.”

“Experts fear the international drug cartels that targeted B.C. casinos to wash dirty money have now shifted their focus to Ontario.”

“Money laundering is like a product of their crime, just like dead kids and corrupt politicians. So that dirty money will find the cracks and flow to more vulnerable systems in Canada,” said Calvin Chrustie, a former senior RCMP officer who targeted transnational organized crime groups in Vancouver and internationally.”

“The Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) logged 945 suspicious transaction investigations at casinos in 2017. That more than doubled to 2,266 transactions in 2018 — a roughly 140 per cent increase, according to data obtained exclusively by Global News. ”

Also watched Rosenberg this am (financial post) talking about the stock buy backs goosing the market and it won’t last forever. Not that I am complaining, just thinking about it.

Incomes staying the same or barely moving, low interest rates, HELOCs, LOC’s, 7 year car loans, increasing cost of utilities & food, low savings, and house prices continually rising in a sluggish CDN economy in a sluggish global environment. Debt saturation is now a topic of conversation in most financial discussions I have come across, just a brief mention at this point.

The article the Jag posted a couple days ago about oil debt was concerning to some degree.

#83 Genesis II on 02.12.20 at 9:56 pm

I wonder…

Could the banks act as ‘market-makers’ in RE – by (secretly) financing arms-length entities to over-pay
for dumpy homes such as this one. This would ‘artificially’ raise the market price in the neighbourhood as RE agents look for comparables to set the asking price.
I mean, honestly, how would we know? If 5-10% of ‘bidders’ are fake (or bank-sponsored), that would probably be enough to ‘fan the flame’ of FOMO again.

#84 Lost...but not leased on 02.12.20 at 9:57 pm

SHTF 2.O was predicted by Garth 5,000 years

U snooze U lose !!!

Dumbkopfs….

#85 the ryguy - In cabo on 02.12.20 at 10:05 pm

I am guessing that the RE naysayers and bubble heads on this blog continue to maintain their respective positions simply because they have been so dead wrong in this bull market and cannot admit their respective mistakes . You have all simply “ dug in” in a terribly stubborn way.
———————————————————-

Hey Cottingham..I’ll concede your point, in some cities up North there has been astronomic RE gains, perhaps we’re at the start of another run (gulp)…fair point, us bears are stubborn. But what reason(s) other than “RE always goes up” makes you think this magical run can or will go on forever? Cause I can point to a dozen economic reasons that this absolutely should not be happening. Do you think Canada is magic? Like what is it?

#86 Doug t on 02.12.20 at 10:08 pm

I’m starting to think that this will go on for a lot longer than anyone thought possible- the banks/government will do everything within their power to keep this craziness afloat – and the people of this country keep drinking the koolaid and living like there is no tomorrow – I might just loosen up the purse strings and spend some cash

#87 oh bouy on 02.12.20 at 10:10 pm

how bout this, million over asking lol. needs the works.
Think i may consider liquidating my real estate this spring. too bad renting in TO is just as insane as buying.
been what, 20yrs and counting for this bubble?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-toronto-home-buyers-spooked-by-bid-1-million-above-asking/

#88 oh bouy on 02.12.20 at 10:15 pm

@#81 Jen on 02.12.20 at 9:44 pm
Hi Garth,

Been reading since 2012. Feels like I should get something for that. I avoided buying in Toronto at first listening to your blog but then sort of went against you and bought in Vaughan. Wasn’t a great decision but thought I was being prudent. Sold 3 years later and broke even. Then bought in Toronto proper and was much better financial decision except the 8/10 school was terrible. Neighbors agreed but enjoyed the benefits of being gen X and buying into the neighborhood for nothing and using property appreciation values for second muskoka home. It wasn’t what I wanted and couldn’t justify private school at our tax rate so sold for 400k more than bought 3 years ago and moved to the USA. Schools are way better. Kids learn hard facts. No socialist agenda. No strikes. But def no gains like Toronto and property taxes are insane (why don’t they just raise property taxes to give to those teachers?) anyways, I invest now in Maga stocks and hope for the best. No idea why i still read your blog. Maybe hoping Toronto gets what it deserves one day. Goodnight.
_________________________________

schools are better… other than the not uncommon mass shootings eh jen. Watch out, wishing ill on your fellow human has a way of boomeranging back at you.

#89 oh bouy on 02.12.20 at 10:26 pm

@#68 IHCTD9 on 02.12.20 at 7:56 pm
#32 Mattl on 02.12.20 at 5:22 pm
—- —

Yes there are lots of stories about peeps making a fortune in GTA/YVR RE. There are also lots of stories about peeps getting absolutely flayed by same. Flop had a non stop stream of verified listings where peeps hemorrhaged 200, 400, 600 grand and more via YVR flips gone off the rails. That’s a loss just on the selling price too, much more was lost on top through the transactional bleeding.

These gta doorknobs that paid 1.34 might make a killing. They also might get their throats slit. 50/50 odds absolute best case (50/50 is too generous really, the ship has sailed on the widespread big gains in a short time. There’s a great chance this was over exuberance and an isolated – horrifying mistake). Yes they are idiots. They are banking on massive appreciation, that’s the only road they got.

It took us a long time to sock away 300k, but we never had to sweat bullets to get to that point. We’ll get to our destination without triggering a stroke, and with a 95% probability of success. It’ll be a big pile at the end, and we never had to risk it all to get there.

Lots of peeps got rich on Bitcoin too, and lots got disemboweled. Luck divides the two extremes, and these dudes who bought that dump for 1.34 are going to need a dump truck load of it.
____________________________________

you know, every time i think this is it, this is the top, it just goes higher. I do know for the past decade the moneyed folk who usually buy houses in enclaves like forest hill, bedford park etc have been moving downtown so the prices aren’t all that surprising. where the money is coming from now I don’t know?

#90 T on 02.12.20 at 10:29 pm

#76 Real estate on 02.12.20 at 9:06 pm
Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?

You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !

Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!

————

Perhaps someone with selective memory failing to remember the challenges of many just a few years ago when prices declined rapidly and deals fell apart everywhere. That mess is still being cleaned up.

Perhaps a realtor gloating about higher prices leading to larger commissions. Failing to acknowledge the canary in the coal mine – Canadians are running out of debt runway. The only way prices can go up is if Canadians take on more debt. This is a near mathematical impossibility.

Perhaps just famous last words.

Prepare. The actual drop is coming. A few years ago was just the warning, a precursor of things to come.

Risk on.

#91 T on 02.12.20 at 10:33 pm

#79 Steven Rowlandson on 02.12.20 at 9:33 pm

‘Only adult canadian males can own real estate and one property per eligible male citizen.’

————

I can’t believe I just read this… in 2020 nonetheless. I hope this is a joke. If it is, very poor taste.

#92 the Jaguar on 02.12.20 at 10:43 pm

@#82 DON on 02.12.20 at 9:46 pm

Didn’t mean to scare you Don. You can also read the entire report as there is a link within the article, but the first paragraph captures the importance of oil to the world. Here it is: ( just wish the people who block rail lines would absorb the facts, and while everyone supports renewable energy sources none are currently a replacement for lots of obvious reasons..).

“Today approximately 90% of the supply chain of all industrially manufactured products depend on the
availability of oil derived products, or oil derived services. As the source material for various types of
fuels, oil is a basic prerequisite for the transportation of large quantities of goods over long distances.
Oil, alongside information technology, container ships, trucks and aircraft form the backbone of
globalization and our current industrial ecosystem. “

#93 al on 02.12.20 at 11:09 pm

“https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-super-rich-are-being-scammed-on-their-private-jets-1.1225294”

I’m glad this was finally flagged last year, however the problem is still ongoing I’m having a hell of time tracking all the invoices. Its hard to find good help these days.

#94 crazyfox on 02.12.20 at 11:40 pm

#60 akashic record on 02.12.20 at 7:10 pm

The change in confirmed cases is due to the shortage in test kits for so named COVID -19. So, these numbers now include clinically diagnosed patients. 242 deaths also included 135 clinically diagnosed patients. Reporting out of Wuhan is that the number of deaths were not back dated so this is a one day number. Not a good number, obviously. CDC says we can absolutely assume underestimates:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEtvhMgauq8

Funeral homes are overwhelmed.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1240701/Coronavirus-death-toll-number-cremated-Wuhan-news-latest-update-burned

What’s happening in Wuhan is there are shortages of medical staff because a good percentage of them are getting sick and the one’s that are replacements or healthy are overwhelmed. There are shortages of test kits, I’ve read 90% less than needed, read running low on oxygen, paramedics are overwhelmed so people with no way of getting to hospitals are dying in their homes. Funeral homes have had a dramatic increase in body home pickups and most of these cases are not examined for fear and lack of manpower so these cases go unconfirmed before cremation meaning fatalities are under reported and there’s no way to really confirm by how much, or the level of shortages going on in Wuhan.

Funerals are essentially postponed or cancelled with no meetings for arrangements for fear of spreading the virus. One can bet the government of China knows the official and unofficial numbers of the dead but the outside world will not. So too, will those with mild cases that get well in isolation going unreported. Only time and models will give us some idea of what the death rate and rate of transmission really is.

With China, we can’t pay attention so much to what the government says, but watch what they do. Here’s what we do know. The province of Hubei which holds 58.5 million people is under lock down likely until May, or some time after the end of flu season. Or, until people stop getting sick. The Chinese government has pumped over $200 billion (USD) in the bond reverse repo market and has offered up to another $300 billion in low interest credit to the private sector or so I’ve read. If that credit is used up, central bank involvement is .64% of world GDP or more. This calms Asian markets in the short term but it doesn’t make up for the lost income and trade at every level.

Then, there’s news like this from the G & M:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-despite-back-to-work-order-virus-fears-and-lockdowns-keep-many/

Government officials will tell people factories are open, but when you call them, no one picks up. People are cautious and scared. If your only way to work is a subway, do you take it? And what of Guangdong. This province boasts the highest imports and exports of any province. Guangdong has an economy larger than Spain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_country_subdivisions_by_GDP_over_200_billion_USD

Guangdong is Asia’s Silicon valley. 49% of the world’s cel phones are manufactured in China, most of which comes from Guangdong. One can read 15% reduction in Chinese Q1 cel phone production, 30% or 50% whichever the investor prefers to hear. Most of the largest car manufacturers have factories there with presumed more sensitive supply chains. What also belongs in Guangdong? 1,241 confirmed cases of Corona virus.

I’ve read reports of Huawei factories back to work with special permits and Apple factories closed or 10% staffed. Then there are stories like this:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12308180

Beijing is China’s second largest city by population and the largest by area. Still crickets. Most banks closed. That’s right, closed. China’s government response to Corona has been one of a slow start and a 180 draconian response. Wuhan is a nightmare, people are paranoid, The Chinese government and money media has gone out of it’s way to tell the world China is back to work but the word on the street for the most part is, it’s quiet. “Factories are humming” but the only observable “humming” it seems are the gas lines feeding crematoriums in Wuhan.

The Dow and NASDAQ hit record highs today. Corona is a yawn and the market with the attention span of a Gnat are drooling over Q4 earnings numbers. Money managers quip no doubt, “regular flu 12,500 dead here, Corona zero” and they are right, God love ’em. But at some point, earnings season will end. What good news will there be for the markets going forward with, say, Apple boasting a 1.4 trillion cap and a supplier list like this?

https://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/pdf/Apple-Supplier-List.pdf

#95 TheDood on 02.13.20 at 12:03 am

#76 Real estate on 02.12.20 at 9:06 pm
Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?

You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !

Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!
________________________________________

The can is just being kicked down the road. Besides, how many stupid people can one country have? Not enough stupidity to go around here in Canada.

#96 Drinking on 02.13.20 at 12:26 am

What are your opinions on this dawgs? Nothing, I mean nothing that we are being told is the truth; complete B.S. (not you Garth) we are just being fed; even the stupidly inaccurate Coronavirus b.s. numbers.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7995645/Household-debt-surges-601billion-2019-14TRILLION-biggest-increase-12-years.html

#97 Damifino on 02.13.20 at 12:30 am

#71 Shawn allen

I agree about Christie Blatchford. A very sad loss. Another great journalist gone and no one of similar fearlessness coming up the ranks, as far as I can tell.

#98 Damifino on 02.13.20 at 12:35 am

#70 DrC

…The home owners don’t care about making money on the house as they care on not losing money…
———————————-

As far as houses are concerned, if your aren’t making money, then you are in fact losing it.

#99 Islander on 02.13.20 at 12:55 am

“Rates are increasing for people in policies now anywhere from 50 to 300 per cent, and deductibles are going from the conventional $10,000 or $25,000 to $100,000, $250,000 or $500,000,” said Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium Home Owners Association.

The reasons for the surging rates are multiple, but one of the factors is the sky-high value of B.C. properties.”

This is where it starts to get tricky. Stratas in YVR are having serious trouble affording or even getting insurance for hyper expensive buildings or for buildings with multiple claims and/or long term issues.

Banks will call in mortgages when buildings aren’t insured.

At some point the SHTF. We may be there in the lower mainland.

#100 Grumpy on 02.13.20 at 1:37 am

What smells like a dead cat, and bounces likes a dead cat…

#101 fishman on 02.13.20 at 1:38 am

No fun building in Van town anymore. Took my first permit out in 79. Getting too complicated ; getting too old. Let the young hot shots have go at’er. R/E lawyers downtown say money from across the Pacific is still pouring into their offices. Going into “trust accounts”, a little dribbling away for commercial stuff. Don’t know where or when it’ll get placed. Lots of liquidity out here. Wanted: lead hand quality tradesmen: carpenters, plumbers,millwrights, pipe fitters,sprinkler guys etc.). Big construction projects up north sucking young tradesmen away.
No contest: B.C. is the place to be. If your young make a stake, find a spot & be in position for the next boom. Might as well give her a shot where the money is. No use working for somebody thats got no money.

#102 Gotta' Love Idiots on 02.13.20 at 2:15 am

Never ceases to amaze me – When will people ever learn ?

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/02/warren-buffett-broke.aspx

#103 X-ray for Christie on 02.13.20 at 4:01 am

BANNED

#104 Howard on 02.13.20 at 4:18 am

#73 Nonplused on 02.12.20 at 8:32 pm

Well now, that was a tad uncalled for :)

You don’t know anything about my level of success or my motivations. Garth has been advocating for elderly Canadians with RE windfalls to unlock the value by selling and investing the proceeds to live off the returns without touching the principal, to be saved for possible nursing home care later on. Given the impending spring FOMO and rising insurance and property taxes, I think now would be a good time to take the cash and downsize.

And since most rich people INHERIT their wealth, the correct answer to your dad’s question would be : “I didn’t choose my parents wisely”.

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 02.13.20 at 5:59 am

“I wonder what crashing fertility rates in Canada and globally our going to do to housing prices.”

Answer: Everything! Call it what it is. Call it GENOCIDE!

Article 2 sections c and d of the UN Convention on the prevention and punishment of Genocide.

#106 under the radar on 02.13.20 at 6:02 am

I bought a 1.5 story 40x 140 ft well used Scarborough house to spec . paid 600k in December. nice area good schools.
Will look for 799k late spring once I close. Probably list for 599k

#107 Gerald du Vonne on 02.13.20 at 6:53 am

BANNED

#108 Apocalypse2020 on 02.13.20 at 7:38 am

Good morning.

(Actually, not so much.)

Coronavirus deaths are up.

250%

Yes.

Since. Yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-deaths-in-china-pass-1300-with-jump-in-cases-live-news?page=with:block-5e449f428f086a28115aac07

But wait, there’s more:

An iceberg the size of Atlanta or Malta just crashed into the ocean.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/12/world/iceberg-breaks-off-antarctica-glacier-scn-intl/index.html

Pandemics. Environmental catastrophes. Political chaos and war.

Welcome to 2020.

Will you survive until 2021?

Only if you are not an idiot.

PREPARE

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 7:43 am

@#76 Real Estate
“Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?
You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !
Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!

++++

Spoken like a true financial intellectual.
“The prices will go up forever eh?”
“Housing is a guaranteed win eh?”
“Mortgaged for life is the best eh?”

A true Canuck eh?
Mortgage stupid with an irrevocably stunted vocabulary.

Newsflash.
Bob and Doug MacKenzie weren’t funny 35 years ago eh?

#110 SoggyShorts on 02.13.20 at 7:45 am

#33 Linda on 02.12.20 at 5:26 pm
Regarding renting vs. purchasing. Seems like most urban centers (cities) in Canada average $1,000 per month to rent a 1 bedroom apartment. YVR/GTA charge the highest rents overall with monthly rents running from $1,500 to $2,300, whereas rents in Saskatoon run $800. Advice to reduce costs by moving to less expensive locales frequently doesn’t translate into lower rents, since supply in smaller locations tends to be limited. As per one site I looked at, the only parts of Canada where monthly utility & rental costs are considered ‘affordable’ – defined as requiring less than 30% of monthly income – are the NW Territories & Inuvut. Rather daunting to say the least

***************
Min wage is 30k (25 net)
A couple should be able to find a place for $1,250 all-in no problem.
60k
-10 tax
-12 tfsa
-15 rent&utilities
= about $2,000 per month for booze and weed(or food if you’re into that)

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 7:59 am

@#91 T
“‘Only adult canadian males can own real estate and one property per eligible male citizen.’
————
I can’t believe I just read this… in 2020 nonetheless. I hope this is a joke. If it is, very poor taste.

++++++

Possibly the same person who constantly writes in claiming Toronto is the centre of the universe and the gathering place for superior Amazon women.

Its merely an annoying comment waved like a red flag for the politically correct to go into spasms of outrage over the perceived gender prejudice of it all.
Take a (morning after) pill and chill.
OR
Watch a Bill Burr show on Netflix and have a heart attack.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 8:02 am

@#108 Apocalypto 2020 and beyond…
“Pandemics. Environmental catastrophes. Political chaos and war.
Welcome to 2020.
Will you survive until 2021?
Only if you are not an idiot.”
+++++

My my. You’re up early this morning Poxy.
Mice in the Bunker food provisions wake you up?

#113 Shocking Hypocrisy on 02.13.20 at 8:05 am

BANNED

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 8:11 am

@#105 Steve Rowstoland
““I wonder what crashing fertility rates in Canada and globally our going to do to housing prices.”
Answer: Everything! Call it what it is. Call it GENOCIDE!”

++++
Off your meds again Steve-o?
You haven’t talked about the high altitude jet vapour trails “spraying program” in quite a while…..or am I mistaking you for another paranoid loon that occasionally vents their spleen here?

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 8:24 am

@#101 fishman
“Wanted: lead hand quality tradesmen: carpenters, plumbers,millwrights, pipe fitters,sprinkler guys etc.). Big construction projects up north sucking young tradesmen away.”
+++++

yep.
HUGE shortage of skilled trades…everywhere.
And its not getting better.
Kids dont want to get their hands dirty or go through the “mean streets” of an apprenticeship program where they might get yelled at.
Seems to be a lot more gals in the trades but the Neanderthals that have been cursing and swearing for decades on the job sites now are expected to watch what they say….sorry but learned habits die hard.
HR is busy.
So the trades continue to retire and take their knowledge with them…..
Oh Canada-duh.

#116 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 8:47 am

*walks into forum, looks around*

Too easy.

*turns around and walks out*

#117 oh bouy on 02.13.20 at 8:57 am

@#95 TheDood on 02.13.20 at 12:03 am
#76 Real estate on 02.12.20 at 9:06 pm
Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?

You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !

Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!
________________________________________

The can is just being kicked down the road. Besides, how many stupid people can one country have? Not enough stupidity to go around here in Canada.
_________________________________________

possibly. a ton of ‘stupid’ people have made out like bandits or the past 2 decades.

#118 Dharma Bum on 02.13.20 at 9:15 am

It doesn’t matter how much house prices rise or fall. Either way, you need liquid assets to actually live.
The notion that people feel so secure over the fact that their house increased in value over a lifetime while their investment accounts are bare, is ludicrous.
Real estate dollars are their own currency.
While you’re alive, you’re going to need some place decent to live. Whatever the housing market is, you can trade real estate dollars laterally within that market without any real loss or actual benefit.
However, liquid investments are cash. It’s what fuels your actual life along the way, and if you’re invested correctly and stay ahead of inflation, you’re actually winning.
In the long run, only inheritors benefit from rising house prices over time.

#119 LP on 02.13.20 at 9:21 am

#71 Shawn allen on 02.12.20 at 8:24 pm
Christie Blatchford

I am one of the few that still gets a newspaper.
*****************************
But you’re not the only one who READS a newspaper. I do, several, on-line, every day. But you’re correct about Christie – a national treasure no matter what anyone says. They don’t make ’em like her anymore. Too many who think they are journalists, but who really aren’t, try to make the stories about themselves, Heather Hiscox being the prime example in my opinion. Can’t watch that program anymore on any day that she is at the helm.

#120 david prokop on 02.13.20 at 9:30 am

I hope my wife will never read this article, she’s been house horny (as an investment) for couple of years, I’ve managed to fight her off, but article like this proves she’s been right. I’m shocked we are back to crazy sellers market again and it’s happening soo fast. What we had here in GTA was (and still is) a huge bubble. Historically when bubbles burst it takes very long time to wake up the animal spirits, but here we are doing it again.

#121 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 9:31 am

#118 Dharma Bum on 02.13.20 at 9:15 am
It doesn’t matter how much house prices rise or fall. Either way, you need liquid assets to actually live.
The notion that people feel so secure over the fact that their house increased in value over a lifetime while their investment accounts are bare, is ludicrous.
Real estate dollars are their own currency.
While you’re alive, you’re going to need some place decent to live. Whatever the housing market is, you can trade real estate dollars laterally within that market without any real loss or actual benefit.
However, liquid investments are cash. It’s what fuels your actual life along the way, and if you’re invested correctly and stay ahead of inflation, you’re actually winning.
In the long run, only inheritors benefit from rising house prices over time.

————————————————————

This is part of the sparse inventory numbers in places like GTA. The older retirees and Boomers are not moving from their homes, nor do they have any intention to. All they consider is leaving vast sums of money (assets) to their kids.

They are content living simple lives even though their homes are worth $1-2M and they paid 60K.

I know A TON of people like this and guess what? It’s all going to be inherited by their children. That is another reason why this RE party will not end in any foreseeable future. A lot of people don’t talk about the huge wave of big inheritances coming.

#122 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 9:36 am

“I know A TON of people like this and guess what? It’s all going to be inherited by their children. That is another reason why this RE party will not end in any foreseeable future. A lot of people don’t talk about the huge wave of big inheritances coming.”

Just to go a bit further on this; if you think the banks aren’t fully aware and want their claws in those inheritances, you are naive. What better way than mortgages? Ie. cheap mortgages (high principals) for a long, long, long time to come.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 9:52 am

@#103 Xray for Christie
#105 Gerald du Vonne
#113 Shocking Hypocrisy
“Banned”
+++++

You seem to have anger/frustration issues.
Has the Amazon patch kit for your deflated blow up doll not arrived yet?

#124 Ubul on 02.13.20 at 10:24 am

Today the best option in Canada is to live in a small town, own your cheap house on a decent size land and invest as heavily as possible.

IF – and that’s where it fails in most cases – IF you can make a good income living in that small town. Statistically most people probably can’t – unless they are like Garth, making money on King Street in Toronto and living in a town that most Canadian could not place on the map.

Most people coming to this country practically end up around the GTA for a very long time, because – whether it is true or not – the perception is that that’s where the jobs are and that’s where the potential economic, political supporting communities are. The population of the GTA has been growing disproportionately to any other cities in Canada, making it the most inconvenient to place to live, while paying the most for it, even as a renter.

#125 TurnerNation on 02.13.20 at 10:32 am

The soft sell is always here. ItS cOmInG…hold on to your TFSA, Inheritances, Primary Residence gains. All will be disallowed for CoMmUnIsM.
Middle class is to be wiped out.

These are UN Agenda key words, learn to recognize them: Densification, Income Equality, Vunerable and Marginalized.
Two people living together with a few kids could conceivably be given 75,000-100,000 tax free dollars each year in welfare and child benefits. To sit at home and watch TV, smoke MJ. And sell it or work under the table. The smart ones will.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/01/23/tax-breaks-for-the-wealthy-or-dignity-and-security-for-the-poor-and-middle-class.html

Canada can end poverty and shrink inequality by adding an annual basic income of $22K, new report says

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 10:32 am

Chocolate vs silver.
You decide.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/bYhTFz_SGw0

#127 Sold Out on 02.13.20 at 11:01 am

Well, those of you in Ontario wondering WTF is going on with GTA real estate, it probably looks something like this…

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/02/13/Gov-Real-Estate-Vancouver-Housing-Unaffordable/

#128 Ubul on 02.13.20 at 11:14 am

#125 TurnerNation on 02.13.20 at 10:32 am

Two people living together with a few kids could conceivably be given 75,000-100,000 tax free dollars each year in welfare and child benefits

Where is the signup link? I hope it can be done online.

#129 Doug in London on 02.13.20 at 11:44 am

Well look on the bright side. If you haven’t sold your house in the GTA yet, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation has given you an extension of time to cash in that winning lottery ticket.

#130 Sail away on 02.13.20 at 11:49 am

Great news.

I’ll be putting the Van Shaughnessy house on the market in about a month. I’d make out handsomely at $2 but will list for $2.8 at realtor’s suggestion.

Taxes will be painful.

Then Ponzie and I can have a drink (on me) and chuckle at the crazy people.

#131 Mattl on 02.13.20 at 11:53 am

#46 Bob Dog on 02.12.20 at 6:24 pm
On the weekend I found listing sign across the street from where I live. Robson and Granville area. Close to everything but not a nice area and very noisy.

The listing was for 500 sq ft unit in a condo tower for $700,000. I live across the street in a 640 sq ft rental tower with the same quality and age.

Mortgage payment on the condo is about $3,345.13 per month plus $1,300 per year in tax and $300 per month in maintenance fees.

I pay $1,900 per month rent with no tax and no maintenance fee.

Canadians sure are dumb.

————————————————————–

How long have you rented? Those 500 sqft units were around 250K 15 years ago, and 400K ten years ago.

And with all due respect, these places sell for what they do, because people are willing to pay 2K to rent in a 30 year old concrete box. I’m not sure you have the high ground here.

#132 Sail away on 02.13.20 at 11:55 am

#128 Sail away on 02.13.20 at 11:49 am

Great news.
I’ll be putting the Van Shaughnessy house on the market in about a month. I’d make out handsomely at $2 but will list for $2.8 at realtor’s suggestion.
Taxes will be painful.
Then Ponzie and I can have a drink (on me) and chuckle at the crazy people.

————————————

Fartz, you’re invited as well, but only if you’re not angry.

#133 Penny Henny on 02.13.20 at 12:04 pm

#51 IM in C on 02.12.20 at 6:46 pm
#47 Ian from Oshawa. You wrote : “This is just crazy! House prices just cannot continue to go up.”
Guess what, I saw this same comment 10 years ago when I first started reading Garth’s blog, and I have seen it in the comments section every week since !!

Debt has paced prices. The risk is now enormous. Look what the real estate fetish has done to retirement income. – Garth

///////////////////

The real estate fetish has done wonders for my retirement income! I sold in May 2017 and got the hell out of Toronto.
Since moving to Welland my current house has risen in value by 50%.
And before you say it Garth, yes it is all about me.

#134 Ronaldo on 02.13.20 at 12:05 pm

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 10:32 am
Chocolate vs silver.
You decide.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/bYhTFz_SGw0
——————————————————————
Shows the financial illiteracy of people. Choose a $1.50 chocolate bar over a silver bar worth $259.18 at this moment.

#135 Not So New guy on 02.13.20 at 12:18 pm

#122 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 9:36 am

“I know A TON of people like this and guess what? It’s all going to be inherited by their children. That is another reason why this RE party will not end in any foreseeable future. A lot of people don’t talk about the huge wave of big inheritances coming.”

===============================

Who exactly are these people going to sell their houses to in order to unlock all that ready cash? How many Canadians can afford those houses when 90% of them are making under 30K?

#136 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 12:33 pm

#135 Not So New guy on 02.13.20 at 12:18 pm
#122 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 9:36 am

“I know A TON of people like this and guess what? It’s all going to be inherited by their children. That is another reason why this RE party will not end in any foreseeable future. A lot of people don’t talk about the huge wave of big inheritances coming.”

===============================

Who exactly are these people going to sell their houses to in order to unlock all that ready cash? How many Canadians can afford those houses when 90% of them are making under 30K?

—————————————————————

Who’s buying them now?

#137 T on 02.13.20 at 12:35 pm

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 7:59 am
@#91 T
“‘Only adult canadian males can own real estate and one property per eligible male citizen.’
————
I can’t believe I just read this… in 2020 nonetheless. I hope this is a joke. If it is, very poor taste.

++++++

Possibly the same person who constantly writes in claiming Toronto is the centre of the universe and the gathering place for superior Amazon women.

Its merely an annoying comment waved like a red flag for the politically correct to go into spasms of outrage over the perceived gender prejudice of it all.
Take a (morning after) pill and chill.
OR
Watch a Bill Burr show on Netflix and have a heart attack.

————

Stop stinking up the comments with your keen observations.

Burr was hilarious until he got wealthy and found love.

#138 Howard on 02.13.20 at 12:37 pm

#122 Captain Uppa on 02.13.20 at 9:36 am

I guess none of those wealthy homeowning Boomers will ever need expensive dementia care?

#139 Damifino on 02.13.20 at 12:52 pm

I have pity for John Horgan this morning. His beloved left has abandoned the rule of law and turned upon him. As a young protester himself, John believed in rules and played by them. But while he was busy throwing up legal roadblocks against one pipeline in favor of another, the law books were being tossed on the fire.

I also have sympathy for Marc Garneau. I doubt he expected the role of Transport Minister would involve dealing with civil disobedience. While his prime minister is thousands of miles away hobnobbing with African leaders of dubious respect for human rights, the press has been shoving microphones in his face.

Marc’s response: “It’s the domain of the provinces” to deal with this mess. Suddenly, we have Ottawa showing new respect for provincial jurisdiction.

Strange world. eh?

#140 I'm A Believer - Sort Of on 02.13.20 at 1:04 pm

Well Garth 10+ years of following your blog. Lots of great info, and warnings etc. Stats on Canada’s aging population.

RE and debt levels continue to rise to historic levels.
Lots of new condo developments in Toronto. Looks like all is fine. No crash, no train wrecks. People just keep making payments, life is good. Right?

So is this the new normal? If it’s not, what is the tipping point?

#141 JB on 02.13.20 at 1:07 pm

#133 Penny Henny on 02.13.20 at 12:04 pm

#51 IM in C on 02.12.20 at 6:46 pm
#47 Ian from Oshawa. You wrote : “This is just crazy! House prices just cannot continue to go up.”
Guess what, I saw this same comment 10 years ago when I first started reading Garth’s blog, and I have seen it in the comments section every week since !!

Debt has paced prices. The risk is now enormous. Look what the real estate fetish has done to retirement income. – Garth

///////////////////

The real estate fetish has done wonders for my retirement income! I sold in May 2017 and got the hell out of Toronto.
Since moving to Welland my current house has risen in value by 50%.
And before you say it Garth, yes it is all about me.
……………………………………………………………..
Yo were very smart to pack it up and move to the Niagara region. Close to multiple hospitals, major highways shopping is OK, people are friendly, Buffalo Airport or YYZ still close enough to fly. Save some major $$ on your new home and now even Niagara is putting up some good gains on homes. Oh yes and Gas is really cheap there, could never figure that one out?

#142 Eks dee Siple on 02.13.20 at 1:12 pm

#57 Shawn Allen

Assuming you mean that by holding shares of the banks, you feel you supposedly “own” them. Ridiculous notion. Sort of similar to the way that over 90% of commercial business activity and policy in the country is run by a handful of old men on corporate boards (often on multiple boards simultaneously), and calling the economy “democratic and fair”. LOL. Silver lining is that change is on track and even Gretzky’s little brother and his cabal of 40 families that currently run this place can’t stop the train. Make my comments yellow all you want, CSIS. We’re coming for you.

#143 G on 02.13.20 at 1:22 pm

FYI, help yourself for free, really. (I did not know this.)
The first two link have useful information on why good sleep 7hr+ is important for helping your immune system in general. Are you read for the COVID-19?

by pulmonologist & sleep specialist Dr. Seheult 1st2links MedCram

-Coronavirus Epidemic Update 16: Strengthening Your Immune Response to Viral Infections (COVID-19) Feb 12 13min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

-Coronavirus Epidemic Update 17: Spike in Confirmed Cases, Fighting Infections with Sleep (COVID-19) Feb 13 13min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlbM6VVkVZM

Thursday 13 February Dr. John Campbell 15min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aWQzJlabrM&t=77s

World Health Organization holds briefing on coronavirus – as it happened Feb 13 [email protected]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORVmb81AXDM

#144 Eks dee Siple on 02.13.20 at 1:26 pm

Take a wild guess why Meaghan had to get away from Queen Lucille Ball. A good person can only live a lie for so long. She thanked me personally via email. National Post interviewed me a couple of years ago for a laugh. Who’s laughing now? “Evil rises and the Light to meet it.” – Snoke

And where have I ever mentioned aliens? That’s that other guy.

#145 Stan Brooks on 02.13.20 at 1:28 pm

It seems there are many ‘winners’ – debt junkies, home owners, the real estate cartel, the builders, the banks….

The question is will there be sufficient number of people who are smart enough to earn big bucks and stupid enough to spend it all/included that of their descendants/ for substandard housing with big liabilities – property taxes, maintenance in a place with shitty weather and declining economy, with no good jobs for the young people and with that waiving all the benefits of making big bucks; if lucky to make after tax big bucks in first place in this place of ever-increasing-taxes.

The answer to that question is: Highly unlikely.

So plan accordingly.

Cheers,

#146 Lambchop on 02.13.20 at 1:42 pm

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 10:32 am
Chocolate vs silver.
You decide.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/bYhTFz_SGw0

————————-

Wow. If that’s real, it’s a sad statement on priorities and instant gratification.
Also, why do these things never happen when I’m walking down the street, wishing I had a cold Hershey bar?

#147 TheDood on 02.13.20 at 1:56 pm

#117 oh bouy on 02.13.20 at 8:57 am
@#95 TheDood on 02.13.20 at 12:03 am
#76 Real estate on 02.12.20 at 9:06 pm
Hey !! Where’s the housing crash y’all were talking about ?

You mean we’re going higher ?! Shocking !

Where’s that ‘happy housing crash ‘ chap ?man,he was wrong ,eh !?!
________________________________________

The can is just being kicked down the road. Besides, how many stupid people can one country have? Not enough stupidity to go around here in Canada.
_________________________________________

possibly. a ton of ‘stupid’ people have made out like bandits or the past 2 decades.

________________________________________

You’re not wrong. Personally, I would never pay today’s prices just to call myself a homeowner, or get into the market. There are lots who do just that and do well. I’ll take an invested pile of cash over the pile of bricks any day.

Nobody knows whats going to happen or how this all ends. It is definitely not sustainable as is. If local salaries cannot afford local prices, what happens?

#148 Eks dee Siple on 02.13.20 at 2:00 pm

Garth, if you will allow it, I am posting the following information as an affront to CSIS and in the public interest.

I had returned recently from a long period of travel, and the last place I was before returning to Toronto (thankfully before the latest bioweapon was released), was the Griffiths Observatory in LA. Here is one of those structures that were likely here before the Europeans arrived (excluding the renos). The “neoclassical” architecture is a clear give-away, just like the Yorkville Branch library in Toronto. There were a number of great and highly advanced civilizations in the Americas, whose histories were completely obliterated and their monuments and buildings simply re-purposed as post offices, churches, museums, etc… Usually, these have lower floors that are inexplicably half in the ground. To explain this, there is a fascinating theory called the ‘mud-flood’ hypothesis. But this event seems to have occurred all over the world simultaneously between the years 1810 to 1865.
I propose that it was rather a world-wide flood that destroyed the civilizations in the Americas especially, allowing the “West to be won” among other things. Rumour has it that our own alphabet is arranged in a way that tells the story of how such a flood has previously occurred. Secret societies are obsessed with the concept of the next flood. Machu Picchu was once underwater!

Apparently, these happen more frequently than we believe and within a generation or two are totally wiped from our collective memory. Hancock called this ‘collective amnesia’. But what Graham didn’t realize is that the last time this type of flooding occurred was only a couple hundred years ago. When it happens, the contours of continents change literally overnight (we see the beginnings of this in Florida for example).

The alarm bells that the media is ringing over “Climate Change” could be just the indirect outpouring of fear from deep within the ranks of these secret societies that we are about to experience another flood very shortly. It starts with a pole shift, which causes the crust to stop moving. Remember that the earth is a spinning sphere. But of course, the water and wind are not affected by the shifting poles, so they continue moving; hence, a flood of biblical proportions, starting in the west and proceeding eastward over the land. Look at old maps of California showing it as an island!

#149 Eks dee Siple on 02.13.20 at 2:09 pm

I hate to say it, but I told you so. From a reputable popular science magazine. What’s next? Admitting that nut allergies stem from nut proteins used in vaccines? That would cost them literally billions but who knows, the world is changing.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-one-can-explain-why-planes-stay-in-the-air/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

#150 G on 02.13.20 at 2:17 pm

For a lighter note, lets hope this is the worst thing we end up needing to worry about.(Praying hard it will)

Not a tease: Russia faces sex-toy shortage if coronavirus continues to spread
https://www.rt.com/russia/480766-russia-coronavirus-shortage-sex-toys/

#151 jess on 02.13.20 at 2:18 pm

country wide subprime sleaze-balls

blackrock’s bet on distressed loans /
http://housingbubble.blog/?p=2920

https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-cashes-out-crisis-bet-to-expand-charitable-arm-11581595320

“Treasury Down Payment Assistance Program, will be given to around 900 Nevada families to help make a down payment towards a single-family home, condo, or town home in the struggling areas. ”
To receive the assistance, your annual income must be less than $98,500, you must not own another property, and the property you’re purchasing cannot cost more than $400,000.’
20 zip codes in Nevada that have been identified as the hardest-hit by foreclosures, delinquency, and negative equity,
https://news3lv.com/news/local/theres-17.9-million-in-down-payment-assistance-for-homebuyers-in-these-zip-codes

============
Walmart Inc. is shutting down its Jetblack personal-shopping service and laying off most of its roughly 350 staffers after the retailer abandoned plans to find investors for the unprofitable operation.’

#152 jess on 02.13.20 at 2:31 pm

https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/Documents/Q3%202019%20Aggregate%20Report.pdf

Hardship Q3 aggregate report
QTD Cumulative
Unemployment 42.89% 63.55%
Underemployment 19.39% 18.69%
Divorce4.39%1.68%
MedicalCondition 16.84% 6.69%
Death 5.21% 1.91%
Other 11.28% 7.47%

Hardest Hit Fund programs state by state initiated 2010

https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/TARP-Programs/housing/hhf/Pages/default.aspx

Hardest Hit Fund – U.S. Department of the Treasury
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/TARP-Programs/housing/hhf/Pages/default.aspx

Current Program Documents
http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/TARP-Programs/housing/Pages/Program-Documents.aspx

#153 Brett in Calgary on 02.13.20 at 2:32 pm

Correlation or causation with reverse mortgages?
==============
#50 IM in C on 02.12.20 at 6:41 pm
More importantly , it shows me that people can sit on their houses and not sell. Real estate is not a supply and demand market.

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 2:32 pm

@#132 sail AWAY
“Fartz, you’re invited as well, but only if you’re not angry”

++++

I do appreciate the offer but I’ve quit swilling for a few months.
Lost a bit of weight AND, more importantly,

Decided to give my abused liver a break.

I’ll have to take a rain cheque.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.13.20 at 2:58 pm

Next week’s Economist Magazine

Re Real Estate sales people in America.

https://click.e.economist.com/?qs=8c034407c3e84b7c2b3401194660dcea10d2d1a7987cf86a0e28184176897d1be3f4eb8a7cbcbaf7e6cfb69d70bcb036fc8fbd2aead5eeb1

#156 NoName on 02.13.20 at 3:03 pm

@Fartz and Fish but no chips

I see what you did there, they already have a solution for that they are pushing more woman in a trades which is fine. Other day my bastige friend and i almost got in a trouble over bloobery (with out L) muffin joke…

As for shortage of trades there is no shortage, it shortage of good tradespeople. One time i am interviewing a dude he seems to know answer and have corect answers on top of that on every question i asked him.

In my desperate event to get at lest one wrong answer i ask him how do you troubleshoot in live equipment (nfpa70e and csa z462). That plant was all explosion proof and where it wasnt no finger safe devices for the most part – trouble sentence right here.

Dude answer me back, i don’t like it but, if i have to me i go pray first than i do it. He was remembered as praying mantis im my mind, or what ever was left from it… No word of the lie here, 2 other people were present…

and my favorite 3rd time here, steel brings tears to my eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69yswP-MSvQ

#157 Sail away on 02.13.20 at 3:46 pm

#149 Eks dee Siple on 02.13.20 at 2:09 pm

I hate to say it, but I told you so. From a reputable popular science magazine. What’s next? Admitting that nut allergies stem from nut proteins used in vaccines? That would cost them literally billions but who knows, the world is changing.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-one-can-explain-why-planes-stay-in-the-air/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

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Why do planes stay in the air? Aliens, obviously.

I just found an invisible controller in my neighbour’s shed. He called the cops for show, but HE knows what’s going on.

#158 mike from mtl on 02.13.20 at 4:07 pm

@Eks dee Siple

Normally I wouldn’t accuse other posters here, but you’re rambling like a full blown ZH nutbar!

#159 penguin on 02.14.20 at 12:18 am

Love today’s dog pic, and agree house prices are about to to raise appreciably. House inventory is a joke in Brampton.

#160 Cowtown Cowboy on 02.15.20 at 12:03 am

Thanks again Ontario for voting in the dumbest sonofabitch this country has ever, and will ever see