The crisis thing

Chinese authorities welding shut the door of an apartment building containing infected people. Screaming citizens being dragged against their will into ambulances. A woman without a face mask being killed by police as they drag her from a car. Stories of five million residents of the most affected city escaping the quarantine, spreading coronavirus everywhere.

This is the stuff on Twitter feeds, in my email box and buried in a slew of comments made to this blog. The pandemic is apparently a great new way to dis Chinese and trash the totalitarian state. How much is fabricated is unknown. How much is true, also a mystery. Is coronavirus peaking, to be just a memory by July? Or is this 1918 again?

No idea. But let’s look at the financial fallout.

First, Mr. Market has decided this is a thing, not a crisis. Despite a few days of doubt, North American equities have barely budged off their record highs. That’s despite the fact Chinese production of everything from car parts to iPhone guts and pharma ingredients is basically kaput. There’s confidence this will all reignite, and soon.

Commodities aren’t so sure. And bonds are doubtful. Oil dipped below fifty bucks on Monday despite big efforts by producers. And money continues to pour into government debt, with bond prices higher and yields lower than they used to be. So somebody’s blowing smoke.

Scotiabank economists threw out a new virus report Monday. The historic quarantine measures taking place in China, “will likely fuel a sharper slowdown in China in the near-term with effects already spreading beyond travel and retail to production and export activities,” it said. This comes despite a boatload of liquidity that Chinese authorities are throwing into the market, as they try to keep Asian investors from freaking out.

Not much doubt the Chinese economy will crater in the short run. GDP growth, expected to be 6% in this quarter will likely hit 4.6%, says the bank, then rebound. For the year as a whole anticipate growth of 5.4% – which is a disaster for Beijing. The regime needs about 7% to keep all the wheels turning.

In the US now there’s noise this virus might tank real estate. Unlike here, Americans want, court and enjoy big Chinese investment in property. Buyers from China took title to $13.4 billion worth of American homes in the last year, which was less than half the amount invested in 2018 – thanks to the Trumpian trade wars. Now, just as that battle is winding down, the virus has frozen travel and investment. Washington has banned all foreigners who have been to (or live in) China from entering the States.

“You have less incentive to buy real estate if it’s unclear if and when you’ll get to visit the property,” says realtor economist Danielle Hale. “In the short term, the virus could dampen sales further.”

Meanwhile the Scotia guys say coronavirus will shave a little – not a lot – off our GDP. Unless, of course, it gets worse. Or if my Twitter feed isn’t just delusional, manufactured, scare-mongering, alarmist, prepper, race-baiting poop. Let’s see in July.

          

On a somewhat related note, a trip now to Vancouver where locals know houses would be affordable and unicorns roam freely in Stanley Park, were it not for the Chinese. The belief ‘satellite families’ and baggy offshore investors were holding thousands of properties empty for speculative purposes was a genesis of that city’s historic empty houses tax.

So for the past couple of years people who own real estate but do not live in it full-time or have long-term tenants, are required to pay an extra tax. It hoovers about $38 million a year and is intended (the lefties running the place insist) to force vacant properties onto the market, dropping the vacancy rate (and maybe rents as well).

Time for an update. The tax was just increased by 20% and homeowners had until a few days ago to declare whether or not their properties are occupied. What’s the status?

Originally housing warriors claimed 25,000 housing units in YVR were sitting empty, and demanded politicians act. Then in 2016, a report commissioned by the city and based on questionable evidence concluded 10,800 homes – most of them condos – were idle. That July the province gave the city the power to tax those property owners, and the new levy came into effect.

“Ultimately, the goal is to get thousands of units back into rental housing at a time when it’s almost impossible to find a rental home,” proclaimed the mayor.

So how many places are void?

In 2017, 1,131 were vacant. This year the number is 787.

There are 310,000 dwelling units in Vancouver, and 600,000 condos in Metro YVR. Do the math. Do 787 under-used properties pose a social threat?

The vacancy rate at the time the tax was imposed was 1%. Today it’s 1.1%. Fail. Rents have gone up, not down. And now YVR has just another tax, on top of the speculation tax, the foreign buyer’s tax and the big-house school tax. Taxes, of course, don’t make things cheaper so in Vancouver there’s just as serious an affordability problem as existed four years ago.

But there is more government.

118 comments ↓

#1 Caledondave on 02.10.20 at 3:33 pm

Phirst

I got a years worth of freeze dried food in the basement and my trusty side by side ready for any pesky looters

#2 AGuyInVancouver on 02.10.20 at 3:36 pm

So how many places are void?

In 2017, 1,131 were vacant. This year the number is 787..
_ _ _
No doubt you meant to say 1,131 were “declared vacant” in 2017 and 787 now, a subtle but meaningful difference. I’m not sure why you chose to ignore the city’s own statement on the matter:
“The Empty Homes Tax is working. Our second set of year-over-year data clearly shows we’re returning more empty homes to the rental market,” said Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart on Friday.

The data speaks for itself. – Garth

#3 Linda on 02.10.20 at 3:41 pm

Don’t most condo boards ban rentals? Or at least limit the amount of time a unit might be rented? I’m sure I’ve read about rental ‘stings’ where exasperated condo associations are hiring investigators to pose as renters to prove condo owners are breaking the rental rules.

So what i’m wondering is, if you own a YVR condo in a building where rentals are banned but are not occupying it, does the empty homes tax still apply? How does the city prove the place is empty if the owner doesn’t declare it? Is the government depending on an anonymous tip line or what?

#4 Piano_Man87 on 02.10.20 at 4:08 pm

#2 AGuyInVancouver on 02.10.20 at 3:36 pm
So how many places are void?

In 2017, 1,131 were vacant. This year the number is 787..
_ _ _
No doubt you meant to say 1,131 were “declared vacant” in 2017 and 787 now, a subtle but meaningful difference. I’m not sure why you chose to ignore the city’s own statement on the matter:
“The Empty Homes Tax is working. Our second set of year-over-year data clearly shows we’re returning more empty homes to the rental market,” said Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart on Friday.

The data speaks for itself. – Garth

————————————–

The data is incomplete.

The vacancy rate didn’t go up (much), but if new residents moved into new rentals it wouldn’t.

Kind of like putting a tax on carbon but the country’s emissions go up as the population grows. Sure, the tax could be lowering emissions per capita, but overall…

#5 JB on 02.10.20 at 4:11 pm

#3 Linda on 02.10.20 at 3:41 pm

Don’t most condo boards ban rentals? Or at least limit the amount of time a unit might be rented? I’m sure I’ve read about rental ‘stings’ where exasperated condo associations are hiring investigators to pose as renters to prove condo owners are breaking the rental rules.

So what i’m wondering is, if you own a YVR condo in a building where rentals are banned but are not occupying it, does the empty homes tax still apply? How does the city prove the place is empty if the owner doesn’t declare it? Is the government depending on an anonymous tip line or what?
………………………………………………………………….
This was hilarious. Condo boards..phhiffft

#6 Dave on 02.10.20 at 4:20 pm

Hard to believe any stats from China…it will be interesting how many people go back to work now that the new year celebrations are over?

#7 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.10.20 at 4:25 pm

#78 Sail Away on 02.09.20 at 10:34 pm sez:

“Lost, what, exactly are your intentions with this sheep?”
——————————————————

I betcha his intentions are really really ba-a-a-d.

#8 Flop... on 02.10.20 at 4:28 pm

Message from a middle aged guy with failing memory.

I remember a while ago during my housing blog days that someone sent me a link with some data on the amount of empty houses in Vancouver before they city brought this tax in place.

The thing that caught my eye was a complex not far from where I lived named Marine Gateway was listed as having 60 unoccupied units.

60 in just one tower, or the several buildings, I’m not sure, but I guess that’s kind of irrelevant as it would blow a hole in the city’s numbers either way.

Might have been an Andy Yan paper,can’t really recall, and can’t be bothered blowing the cobwebs off The Flop Files.

As long as this thing pays for itself and the optics are good, not sure how far they are prepared to go.

Hardcore speculators that have been creaming the whole tax system including primary residence exemption are probably not going to bat an eyelid.

Someone who hadn’t done much wrong, and was sitting on the fence as to what to do, might decide to play by the books.

Some folks might decide that they just don’t want to open that can of worms, after all from the city’s own Empty Homes Tax paperwork…

M45BC

“Additional information may be required following your declaration submission.

Property status declarations will be subject to an audit process if your property is selected for an order you’ll be asked to provide evidence to support your declaration failure to provide such evidence may result in the property being deemed vacant and subject to the vacancy tax.

The evidence required may include but is not limited to:

ICBC vehicle insurance and registration,government issued personal identification,including drivers license,BC ID card, British Columbia services card medical services plan invoice, income tax returns and notices of assessment including rental income schedules.

Employment contracts,pay statements or records of employment, homeowners insurance policy, tenancy agreements, bank statements.”

#9 BobC on 02.10.20 at 4:40 pm

Property rights shrinking year after year while half the Canadians cheer it on.
Unbelievable…….

#10 Not Drinking on 02.10.20 at 4:56 pm

Interesting article and he does not even mention the current coronavirus issue that could be a huge issue in countries GDP.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-this-turbocharged-debt-cycle-will-end-miserably-its-just-a-matter-of-when

#11 Flop... on 02.10.20 at 5:09 pm

Have I got one more b-grade report in me?

I believe I do.

I was going to chime in on yesterday’s condo insurance bomb topic and decided to let sleeping Flops lie instead.

Have to be a bit more guarded/vague with the information I dole out on here, but people who have trusted my information over the last 5 years or so will know that it’s still good, just not as precise.

What have I been up to the last six months?

Some Contractors on the detached property side of things seemed to be using the slowdown as a reason for a bit of a wage rollback/race to the bottom sort of things.

One look at my ICBC car insurance form said I can’t be part of this.

Decided to switch over to an outfit that does more commercial/condo type of projects.

The thing that has jumped out at me is people are openly talking about the condo building insurance rising in the common areas and lobby.

As a construction worker I have been asked by seemingly fearful residents as to my reason for being there.

They seem relieved when I state that I am just there to do a renovation on a private residence, I just guessed they were fearful of a special assessment or something.

One of the residents was asking the property superintendent how much the property insurance was going up this year.

I won’t reveal any numbers, won’t even give any addresses, but the main point of this post is to confirm the concern is real and it looks set to only get worse in the coming years.

Vague enough, but good enough from the front line?

Probably not, but it is likely high time I declare my vested interests to all the angry homeowners I have upset on here during the years.

It’s hard being a construction worker with a conscience.

I just need enough to put food on the table, the rest is yours.

M45BC

#12 Perma-bear on Tap on 02.10.20 at 5:19 pm

#10 Not Drinking on 02.10.20 at 4:56 pm

Interesting article and he does not even mention the current coronavirus issue that could be a huge issue in countries GDP.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-this-turbocharged-debt-cycle-will-end-miserably-its-just-a-matter-of-when
….
Reads well, but he’s said this a billion times for 12 straight years.

#13 Damifino on 02.10.20 at 5:33 pm

#3 Linda

Try to think more like a bureaucrat and the answers will become evident.

… if you own a YVR condo in a building where rentals are banned but are not occupying it, does the empty homes tax still apply?

Of course it does.

How does the city prove the place is empty if the owner doesn’t declare it?

Put responsibility on owners to prove occupancy.

Is the government depending on an anonymous tip line or what?

Good idea. Thanks!

#14 yorkville renter on 02.10.20 at 5:54 pm

#2 – clearly shows we’re returning more empty homes to the rental market…

______

Did they say how many? is it 30, 300, 3000, 30000?
Pretty vague statement for the mayor to make, no?

#15 Rico on 02.10.20 at 6:04 pm

The number of available rentals is not a valid measure of the efficacy of the empty homes tax.
If unrented units was close to zero and demand significantly exceeded supply then increasing supply will increase the number of renters while still keeping the number of unrented units low.

The problem was never with the price of rents. Logically if landlords in Vancouver want to stop burning money on a monthly basis then rents must increase.

#16 P.Ooched on 02.10.20 at 6:05 pm

globe&mail article[0] by Frances Bula reporting on the CHMC’s annual rental mark report [1] for 2019 indicates that BC/yvr policies are working adding 11,000+ condo units to the rental market in the GVA. Policies seem to be especially effective in downtown yvr …

” The numbers were even more noticeable in downtown Vancouver, where nearly 3,000 condo units were added to the rental market, but only 300 new units had been built.”

“It is absolutely significant. We haven’t seen numbers like that before,” said Dan Garrison, the city’s assistant director of housing policy. “There could be other explanations in the investor climate, but this to us is a hopeful sign.”

“Eric Bond, a spokesman for CMHC, said the shift is so marked that the agency is going to dedicate some additional research to figuring out what happened, especially because of the change in Vancouver.”

[0] [paywall] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-policies-aimed-at-forcing-condo-investors-to-rent-out-their-apartments/ [paywall]

[1] https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/publications-and-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres

#17 Treasure Island CEO - 164,434,456.88 on 02.10.20 at 6:10 pm

The coronavirus is a ‘black swan’ for oil and energy markets, says Ned Davis Research.

Analyst Warren Pies noted that the outbreak has reduced Chinese demand for oil by 2 million to 3 million barrels per day, which means “the oil market is looking down the barrel at no demand growth for the calendar year.

Interesting how agents in the US are screaming of a real estate meltdown if they can’t get foreign buyers. I guess overseas money is the only game in town and the same origin money that releases the equity in Vancouver and the GTA. Duh! Then the money spreads through Canada and the building boom continues.

For Vancouverites, having Macau casinos on shut down is like having your only bank shut down. No bank. No mortgage, no boomer equity release, no secondary equity spending, no millenial FOMO canceled projects due to not meeting funding requirements, etc, etc, etc…

Also, insolvencies jumped again: these are working people, typically 40 or younger…and SURPRISE – renters due to the two fold increase in rents that have nut leveled them. Maybe renting was a bad idea regarding cash flow stability when your rent blows out, which has basically happened to all millenials I know.

Probably nothing.

#18 kommykim on 02.10.20 at 6:18 pm

RE: Time for an update. The tax was just increased by 20% and homeowners had until a few days ago to declare whether or not their properties are occupied. What’s the status?

========================================

You had me worried there for a bit. The deadline is not until March 31:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax/how-to-declare

Different tax. I know it’s confusing in BC. So many. – Garth

#19 Well what do you know on 02.10.20 at 6:19 pm

And then the realtor says: you can kick this working class single dad chump out with the kid and increase the rent by 1,100 dollars per month for the millenial who will want this location (and probably share the accommodation with a 4 roommates to make ends meet).

So, then I ask, but what about this tenant who has been paying the rent on time for the last 9 years.

Realtor: who cares about him. Reality check coming. This market has gona uppa and if you don’t pay up you can pack your bags and head to Fort St. John where it might be less than 2,200 per month for 700 sqft.

So, I am like, wait a second. Take off those sunglasses….ahhh, it is you, Christy.

Good thing the NDP is rolling out 30,000 rental units in the province.

#20 kommykim on 02.10.20 at 6:22 pm

Geeze! They have different deadline dates for Vancouver vs the rest of the Province! Go figure! My mistake. Still relieved though.

#21 Baltic Dry Index on 02.10.20 at 6:23 pm

Capesize index plummets to -133, the first time ever in negative territory. The Baltic Exchange Capesize Index (BCI) dropped to -133 index points on 4 February 2020, turning negative for the first time ever on 31 January 2020.

BTFD

#22 jsto on 02.10.20 at 6:26 pm

Prices of real estate and rents should come down! Period!

#23 FAKE NEWS on 02.10.20 at 6:29 pm

This is going to get BAD….. REAL BAD!!

MR. MARKET is just that. He ain’t a doctor and can’t tell you what will be the outcome of this virus.

Once reality sets in you will all wish you worked with the SPACEX team cuz your gonna pray you didn’t live on PLANET EARTH anymore.

God Bless

#24 TurnerNation on 02.10.20 at 6:43 pm

I am sorry Climate Change ruined Bandit’s childhood.


For tonight’s bevy of Infectious disease experts, tell us which scientific tests you’ve performed to replicate and prove flu jumping from bats to humans.
Come on it’s 2020 – child’s play.

#25 YouKnowWho on 02.10.20 at 6:50 pm

“ unicorns roam freely in Stanley Park”

That explains all the blackberries growing in the park Garth!

Little known fact: Unicorns love blackberries for some reason.

#26 Ustabe on 02.10.20 at 6:57 pm

Different tax. I know it’s confusing in BC. So many. – Garth

With a government that is currently in surplus, that has removed entirely the MSP premium, that has completed (in a minority mind you) something like 80% of its election promises and is dramatically revamping ICBC to bring it into the 21st century.

All actions that benefit all BC residents, not just a chosen few.

In fact, they are operating more like old school Progressive Conservatives than the federal NDP…no cuts to education, health workers while working towards properly enticing business.

When the provincial NDP says it will punch out 30,000 new rental units I believe them.

Horgan will be re-elected with a majority. I’ll take him and his government over any version of present day conservative.

#27 BlogDog123 on 02.10.20 at 6:58 pm

Supply, supply, supply…

Would some kind of “build more apartments” tax/paperwork holiday solve all of this? Or does fiddling with home buyers / mortgage rules make it seem like the pols are “doing something” when they’re actually doing nothing??

Builders who build rental apartments get a temporary break from certain paperwork and land development charges if they build nice tall buildings close enough to transit.

Or a big chunk of land just outside the city but on a potential high-speed train corridor becomes the nucleus for a high density suburb, dev charges waived and gets people to work on time…

Or am I just dreaming that “increasing supply” will solve the problem here..??

#28 Not Drinking on 02.10.20 at 7:03 pm

#12 Perma-bear on Tap

I trust what you say but it is the first time that I read it from this guy! If it is a continuous scaremongering tactic from that author then thanks for letting me/us know. But then again; who knows what the heck is going to happen!

#29 Dave on 02.10.20 at 7:07 pm

DELETED

#30 Bob Dog on 02.10.20 at 7:15 pm

B.C. is a jewel among common stones. Clean water, clean air, clean energy from over 50 hydro damns. The world has become very rich and people from many countries see B.C. as a product for sale, which it is.

Hubble shows us the vastness of a galaxy and among billions of stars only one B.C. is known to exist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udAL48P5NJU

Ask yourself what a country or a province is worth on a globalized world market.

#31 Heregoesnothing on 02.10.20 at 7:16 pm

#3 Linda:

I was looking into this for a friend, and if the strata prohibits rentals, then there is an exemption from the tax for the next few years (until 2021).

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax/exemptions-speculation-and-vacancy-tax/individuals#rental-restrictions

#32 Flop... on 02.10.20 at 7:21 pm

While I’m on here, I might as well try and cheer my old buddy WUL up a bit.

Hey WULLY, what have you got lined up for the summer?

Since you turned down my Tasmanian Taiga Trading Post Partnership up in the Mac, how about I fling something else your way.

Never been much into Country and Western music, but after reading your and Trackies-IH dialogue, I thought it was as good as any a time to reveal a song that has been in the back off my head since I camped in Southern Alberta a while back.

It might have already been done, and so I might have to retain you as legal counsel.

You ready? Here’s the title…

One More Kiss in Kananaskis…

Don’t listen to country music, like I said, but the best I can tell there is a lot of heartbreak, religion, references to motor vehicles and animals.

Sure there is other slang going on, but I can’t understand the twang, just like I find myself watching the subtitles on an Australian mining show on Discovery channel.

Once in jail, I might have time to fine tune verses like this…

One more kiss in Kananaskis
Lips like sparks, don’t need no matches.
If you leave, paws off the Ford.
Get me a dog, that loves it some scratches…

The Flop Trio….possibly touring this summer.

Lead vocals and general embarrassment provided by Flop.

Lead G-tar, back up vocals and future legal representation provided by a Washed Up Lawyer.

Percussion provided by Trackie-IH banging on some yellow iron, and slapping some left over roof shingles on his thigh…

M45BC

#33 Apocalypse2020 on 02.10.20 at 7:21 pm

This is not a good sign.

Bats causing illness in our nation’s capital region.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/methane-levels-being-tested-at-federal-buildings-in-search-of-dead-bats-1.5449970

PREPARE

#34 MF on 02.10.20 at 7:21 pm

24 TurnerNation on 02.10.20 at

For tonight’s batch of conspiracy theorists:

Please show us any proof you have of your delusional theories about shadowy elites.

It’s 2020. Come on, child’s play.

MF

#35 Solutions on 02.10.20 at 7:22 pm

We keep criticizing any attempt at correcting this insane real estate market. So what are the solutions? We all know that the banks, chmc, corrupt real estate boards and unscrupulous builders can shoulder a lot of the blame. Add to that booming demand from high immigration and foreign investment and you really have a two-decade-long quagmire on your hands with no end in sight.

No one seems to be willing to tackle this head-on and instead play silly little games with stress tests and ineffective foreign buyer an empty house taxes that are simple to avoid and get around.

If we don’t address Banks downloading all the risk on the taxpayers, mortgage insurance stepping way outside its mandate long ago, insane overpopulation of the two major Metropolitan areas that Canada truly has to offer, then this will never get fixed.

I am truly sad about the future.

#36 Ustabe on 02.10.20 at 7:25 pm

Different tax. I know it’s confusing in BC. So many. – Garth

The Least Taxing Place in Canada

Ontario – 5.05%
Manitoba – 10.8%
Saskatchewan – 11%
Alberta – 10%
British Columbia – 5.06%
Yukon – 7.04%
Northwest Territories – 5.9%
Nunavut – 4%

Source is Intuit/TurboTax.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.20 at 7:27 pm

@#130 Not Legal
““Grade 11 was just a little over a year ago for me”
CORRECTION – Just a little over 11 years for me*****

+++++

It took you 11 years to complete grade 11?
Will your grad be in your mid 40’s

#38 Where's My Money Gov't Guidos? on 02.10.20 at 7:40 pm

Re: Garth FOMO And FOSC….
“Well, sales are pretty decent in most places and we’re back on the price escalator – except in Vancouver where the socialists outlawed everything. Toronto saw a 12% escalation last month, especially with detached houses.”

It’s all explained by this: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-lottery-corp-relents-after-9-year-battle-to-keep-money-laundering-records-secret-1.5456012
You do know that Gord Campbell, the BC Premier from 2001 until 2010, then Chrusty Clark took over, were allowing this. And now he’s in Ontario. Same old.
How can any gov’t allow this to happen.
And the Fed Cons at the time HAD to know about this.
Normal slave wagers are doomed unless we revolt and toss ALL miscreants who are running this country.
As they say: CLEAN SWEEP!!!!!

#39 the ryguy - In cabo on 02.10.20 at 7:54 pm

DELETED

#40 My hunting pard'ner ... on 02.10.20 at 7:59 pm

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.20 at 7:27 pm

@#130 Not Legal
““Grade 11 was just a little over a year ago for me”
CORRECTION – Just a little over 11 years for me*****

+++++

It took you 11 years to complete grade 11?
Will your grad be in your mid 40’s
————————————————
graduated grade 12 from VanTech in ’72 and the yearbook said he majored in French 9.

#41 Entrepreneur on 02.10.20 at 8:18 pm

Planes, Trains and Cruise Ships. I was going to book my first trip on a cruise ship but cancelled out, safer here.

When so many people on a cruise ship are getting infected (staying on) I think it is time to remove everyone from the ship and into proper quarters. I would be pretty upset if I wasn’t infected, forced to stay, then come down with the coronavirus.

Heard Macau is shutting their casinos down for two weeks, interesting what that will do. But I think all casinos should be shut down period. Casinos are like a slap in the face, I get sick if I even look at one.

Have you noticed T2 came to Canada for the election, put on a desperate performance in the NWT, and now is off, off again. But, but what about those emissions from those jets and the environment?

I think it is time for informative t.v. documentaries (or even Question Period or similar shows) question renewable energy in Canada. Elizabeth May said during the election renewable energy has enough jobs for everyone (the job card the leaders are holding.)

But, a big but here, no politician (brick wall) on the show, just private sector business people, small or big. Even ideas, suggestions, that feeling of moving forward. And not just one, several.

Homeless people are parking on Dallas Road in Victoria. Nice ocean view there. They will be fined and asked to leave. U.S. is worried about their real estate deflating because of the virus. Maybe we should also have a show on globalism.

#42 Apoplectic on 02.10.20 at 8:21 pm

I just had a great idea, spurred by the two topics Garth juxtaposed today. Let’s fix Corona Virus by taxing it! That is how the government fixes everything else. (sarc/off)

—————

I am of the opinion that ether the Chinese government didn’t think they had enough challenges and wanted a new one, so they manufactured an unprecedented shut down of their economy, or they are lying about Corona Virus.

The problem with this virus seems to be that it spreads before the carrier appears sick, making it much harder to identify and track down than SARS was. It is not necessarily worse if you get it, it’s just spreading much faster and more “under the radar”.

I think the argument that the reported confirmed cases are more a function of how fast test kits can be made available is plausible. Like face masks, they can only be produced so fast. Production is ramping up though.

Be prepared. Comparing this thing to SARS is not appropriate because the SARS numbers they use occurred over a much longer time line. This thing is spreading faster. I mean for Dog’s sake the Chinese government is driving trucks around that have something like a snow making machine on the back spraying what we can only assume is a disinfectant, diluted bleach maybe (that would be the cheapest option that works), into the streets! This isn’t SARS. And if it turns out that rats can spread it, OMD!

Remember folks, when people talk they invariably lie, either because they mean to control the message or because they really don’t know any better. (See the flat earth society for an example of both. Or young earth creationists.) But if you want to know what someone really thinks, watch what they do. And in China, they are literally panicking. Nobody quarantines 100 million people and counting and shuts down industry for a month unless they are crapping their pants.

Get that home quarantine kit put together and do it by the end of the month. 2-4 weeks of non-perishable food items (not freezer dependent, we are talking canned and dried foods), water, items you might use to treat a flu, and a grid independent cooking and lighting source. You should have such a kit anyway, so stop procrastinating. Just ask anyone who has lived through a hurricane or an ice storm. Corona Virus is just one more example of why the motto of the Scouts is “be prepared”. I’ll agree with Garth and the markets that this thing is probably being overblown. But if the quarantine comes to your home town, even if it is not really necessary, it’ll be too late to go out and buy canned beans. Get them now. You can always eat them later. They are inflating in price just as fast as your GIC pays interest before tax so having non-perishable food items in the pantry is really like having money in the bank. So do it. Do it soon.

#43 TurnerNation on 02.10.20 at 8:38 pm

KIDS get a job with the Government, Crown Corp or related NGO.
A growth area of our taxes. And quality of lives continues downward here.
Remember the watchwords: No accountability. No performance standards. Blank cheque/must use budget entirely to earn more.

http://archive.is/7SDPF#selection-683.0-713.281

“The number of federal workers that fall under the Public Service Employment Act grew by 4.6 per cent annually in the 2018-19 fiscal year, says a new government report published Thursday.
Over that span, total hiring activity jumped by 11.9 per cent, with indeterminate and temporary employee hires jumping to their highest levels in the last 10 years, reads the Public Service Commission of Canada’s 2018-19 Annual Report.
Specifically, indeterminate hires — employees appointed on a continuous basis as opposed to contract, casual, seasonal or student workers — increased by 34.2 per cent in the last fiscal year. Term or contract workers picked up by 10.9 per cent in that period.
RELATED: Government spending on IT consultants increased by $695 million from 2011 to 2018: PIPSC
The president of one of the largest federal public service unions says the numbers in the report may look positive on the surface but departments are continuing to fork over billions of dollars in lucrative contracts to external consultants.
Debi Daviau of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada (PIPSC) pointed to a report published by the union last month that found the federal government spent nearly $12 billion from 2011-18 on management consultants, temporary help contractors and IT consultants.”

#44 the Jaguar on 02.10.20 at 8:47 pm

This post might be titled “Being Annoying”.

As long as we are ramping up to strap ourselves in for ‘panic mode’ I figured some faithful readers might find the following analysis interesting.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848g5/government-agency-warns-global-oil-industry-is-on-the-brink-of-a-meltdown

#45 WUL on 02.10.20 at 8:50 pm

#32 Flop… on 02.10.20 at 7:21 pm

Count me in. You already have the van we can tour in. International Harvester can keep it roadworthy, sorta. The name of the trio could be “The Catskinner and the Tasmanian”.

Surely you’ve mastered the traditional instruments of that part of the world in which water flows the wrong direction when the toilet is flushed.

So, you’ll be featured on the didjeridu, the bullroarer, and the gum-leaf.

Problem with my acting as legal counsel for you two troublemaking, tax avoiding scofflaws is that people will say to you “Appears ya didn’t have much time to find a lawyer, didja.”.

Cheers, Flopster

WUL

M64Lost in the Taiga

#46 Nonplused on 02.10.20 at 9:00 pm

Back to US politics for a minute….

Did anybody but me realize that Orange Man Bad was a presidential contender since he was 40? 30 years he has been doing interviews and being asked if he would ever consider running for President. All 30 years they were asking him all sorts of politics. The stage has been set for a long time.

#47 Niagara Region on 02.10.20 at 9:05 pm

Several countries in the world ban foreign investment in real estate. Article “Think B.C. has a lot of housing regulations? You ain’t seen nothing”:

Link deleted. That xenophobe is not welcome on this site. – Garth

#48 45north on 02.10.20 at 9:44 pm

HereGoesNothing: I was looking into this for a friend, and if the strata prohibits rentals, then there is an exemption from the tax for the next few years (until 2021).

here’s the link to the BC Government

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax

it costs $100 million a year to administer the program. Millions of declarations to fill out. A 100 civil servants. 99% of declarations result in no tax. All kinds of exemptions. All kinds of inter-agency, inter-government interaction.

the web site says The provincial government is taking action to address this crisis through the annual speculation and vacancy tax, which will contribute towards:
Turning empty homes into good housing for people who live and work in B.C.

but who’s to say how many empty homes are turned into good housing? Or abandoned buildings?

#49 tccontrarian on 02.10.20 at 9:45 pm

Exactly how many taxes does BC have on residences?

tcc

#50 Genesis II on 02.10.20 at 9:46 pm

Shorted Tesla last week and put the profits towards a downpayment for a 2020 Corvette. Feels good!

#51 Barb on 02.10.20 at 9:47 pm

Everything Horgan touches fails.
And what he’s doing with/to ICBC is even worse than it was before he touched it.

#52 Doug in London on 02.10.20 at 10:07 pm

In the fallout from this corona virus there are bound to be some buying opportunities. Oil stocks are on sale now, and has anyone checked Carnival Cruise Lines stock lately?

#53 Jockey on 02.10.20 at 10:10 pm

https://calgaryherald.com/news/world/coronavirus-cases-outside-china-could-spark-a-bigger-fire-who/wcm/bca1d2d7-b6fa-49ee-b88d-fe82704c3837

It’s getting worse. Looks like your government is hiding under the rug.

#54 Vanreal on 02.10.20 at 10:17 pm

I can’t believe people are cheering on the reduction in Vancouver home prices caused by government interference in the free market. How would you feel if the government decided to actively engage in a tax system aimed at reducing the value of your financial investments. Not so happy I would guess. Government needs to put in policies to promote an increase in the supply. Not tax the demand.

#55 crazyfox on 02.10.20 at 10:24 pm

I don’t know where the Bank of NS gets its numbers. A 1.4% drop in China’s Quarterly GDP is not logical, it will be so much worse than this. What I can tell readers is to use logic and look at the Chinese economy in simple terms:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/270327/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-china/

Service industry: 46.4%
Industry: 27.6%
Agriculture: 26.1%

We can tell ourselves without hesitation that the service industry in China is groceries and a few restaurants open for delivery. That’s it. Put a percentage on it, maybe 20% of the service industry is working in China right now. 35% of the Chinese economy is halted in the service industry alone.

Industry, apart from utilities is shut down. What would that be, 23% of the economy shut down? Just guessing here, but bear with me.

Agriculture is 26.1%. If we discounted the entire number of Agriculture which isn’t realistic but agriculture is mostly cyclical and looked at the other two sectors, approx 58% of the workforce is not working in China as of today.

Forget the noise of what you read a week ago or even days ago, its all rear view mirror. As of today, Chinese holidays are over and yet, all of the Chinese major sea ports are closed. All of the factories are closed. Schools are closed. Parents are being told maybe March 2nd and this date varies from province to province. Airports are a trickle. Subways are still open. The only services that are open are about what you would expect to be open on Christmas day in North America. Hospitals, a few gas stations and restaurants, people having access to food and hospitals and basically that’s it. Everything else is frozen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China

If we look at the GDP of the provinces that have the highest levels of infected, we’ll have a better understanding of what to expect:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Guang Dong, approx 12% of GDP, 1,149 infected
Zhejiang, 6.2% of GDP, 1,092 infected
Henan, 5.4% of GDP, 1,073 infected
Hunan, 4.2% of GDP, 879 infected
Hubei, 3.5% of GDP, 31,728 infected

The provinces with the highest numbers of infected make up over 30% of the Chinese economy. There are factories all over China with provinces relying on other provinces for their supply chains. The province of Hubei alone is likely to be under quarantine until the end of flu season, perhaps going into early May. Check out the economy of Hubei and you’ll get the drift:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubei

The land of fish and rice is and important agricultural province but its also cars, machinery, power generation, textiles, high tech commodities…

People may dismiss this with the wave of a hand, what’s 58.5 million in a nation like China right? That’s like dismissing the economic importance of Atlantic Canada here. People will think, so what? It’s just 3.5% of the population. But then gas stations run out of gas in eastern Canada and people can’t get to work or pay as much as double short term resulting from supply/demand disruption. Imports and labor don’t show up from the Eastern seaboard and on it goes.

Perhaps its the human aspect that drills it home. Watching videos like this with simple cel cam feeds from China give us a clue as to what it’s really like if you watch enough of them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKcMVXTucpw

Garbage piling up in the streets now, streets are crickets and this is just a part of it. 40% of the Chinese economy is state owned. Most of the financials are state owned. If the government of China chooses to grind China’s economy to a halt over this, the 60% privately owned economy has no choice but to comply. People will say, “China can’t do this, they can’t afford to” without really understanding the threat Corona virus poses not just to the world but to the Chinese people, their reputation…

There really are two contexts to look at this. What are the economic ramifications and how serious is this virus? We are looking at the world’s top manufacturing nation stop production for what is looking like at least 3 weeks but it will likely be more. Without question this will acutely test the world’s supply chains that could be more costly globally than the direct cost to China.

Economists that suggest China Q1 GDP will take a mere 1.5% hit over this is pure rubbish. Expectations were China would have Q1 6% growth while you’ve got guys from Goldman telling people China’s annual GDP will be 4% so do the math (-2% Q1) and that was just looking to March 2nd. If this goes into mid March and beyond, again, do the math.

This has the potential to cost the Chinese economy a trillion dollars and global supply chains, another trillion maybe as much as 2.5% annual global GDP. What’s global GDP again, $84.5 trillion 2019 est.?

“You smoke the rock crazyfox, these numbers are nutter” a few will say and at first glance, they would be right. The monthly average of Chinese exports is $220 billion (USD). 6 week… $ 330 billion but its the supply chains and the handling of money as it goes from financials and producers to wholesale to consumers and factories elsewhere dependent on Chinese imports, the disruption in the supply chain we are talking about, we haven’t seen this in modern times. Shut down the majority of the Chinese economy for 5 to 6 weeks, again, do the math.

How serious is this virus? Without quarantines, perhaps 1 to 2 million infected by April and the fatality rate will surprise, somewhere between 5 to 10% depending on the health care and if I had to hazard a guess I would say 7%. Just in the last 24 hrs, reports are coming out of China that the virus is transmittable through aerosols meaning its airborne and can travel much greater distances than droplets (6 to 7 ft). It’s too soon to say how true that is, but if it’s true, that’s obviously bad news and has the rational mind thinking pandemic. This fits into the narrative of a Japanese cruise ship now having 135 confirmed cases and didn’t have the resources to test everyone. If it’s airborne, we’ll know.

A case study provided by the Chinese government of 138 cases had 41.5% infected as catching it from within the hospitals. The reason why the 2 hospitals were built in Wuhan weren’t simply to handle more patients but to isolate them from other sick patients and hospitals. say what we will about the Chinese people and its government, if the crackdown response since Jan 23rd wasn’t as strong as it’s been, this would have been a global catastrophe and it still might be, but what the Chinese government has done with it’s quarantines etc. is buy the world time. Time to find a vaccine, time to know what the world is up against. If there’s any truth to Corona being airborne, we’ll need it.

#56 Long-Time Lurker on 02.10.20 at 10:35 pm

>For the record.

>I should have included this with my previous series of posts about the Wuhan ICU, but here it is.

-Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient is declared ‘disease-free’ in 48 hours using HIV and flu drugs – as Dettol is forced to warn there is ‘NO evidence spray kills virus’

-Medics tested drug mix on patient in ‘serious condition’ who turned disease-free

The antiviral drugs are normally used for HIV and influenza treatment

By ISABELLA NIKOLIC FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 06:41 EST, 2 February 2020 | UPDATED: 16:55 EST, 3 February 2020

Thailand has reportedly seen promising results after treating a coronavirus patient with a mix of two antiviral drugs which are usually used to treat HIV.

Medics tested the drug mix on a patient who was in a ‘serious condition’ with the disease and within 48 hours they were declared disease-free, reports Bloomberg.

The drugs, originally used for HIV and influenza treatment, were a success according to a medical briefing given by Dr Kriangsak Attipornwanich….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html

#57 yvr_lurker on 02.10.20 at 10:58 pm

Not one person asked last night why Mr. Market is not around when insurance premiums on condos (even those who have had no issues) are being doubled and tripled. Where is Mr. Market, where other insurance firms enter the field to provide some coverage? Or is it, frankly, a situation where there are only a very limited number of insurance firms that control the landscape like a monopoly and set whatever rate they can gouge. Similar to why gas in Vancouver is so much more expensive than even elsewhere in BC?

However, Mr. Market is dragged out prominently in this discussion on how the Gov’t should not curtail the free-flowing purchase of houses (without restrictions), the Chinese buying up housing stock in the U.S. etc… all perfectly reasonable, and no restrictions needed….

Sorry, I don’t buy this argument one bit…. Am really delighted with the new taxes in BC and so are many of the citizens… it is indeed helping drive the prices down…. just open your eyes a bit…. Another 4 years of NDP rule after 2021 and perhaps YVR will no longer be a close facsimile of Monaco where the long-standing landowners with inherited wealth control the show….

#58 yvr_lurker on 02.10.20 at 11:14 pm

Do you not like what Douglas Todd is describing? Seems like he is focusing on discussing how housing is dealt with all over the globe. Isn’t this good information to be aware of for a voting member of the public? Or is the problem that it does not fall in sync with the party line. To me it is very informative to know how other countries treat their housing stock for their own citizens.

Todd is an unabashed racist and the local paper should be ashamed to carry his column. It will not be reprinted here. – Garth

#59 DON on 02.10.20 at 11:15 pm

#44 the Jaguar on 02.10.20 at 8:47 pm

This post might be titled “Being Annoying”.

As long as we are ramping up to strap ourselves in for ‘panic mode’ I figured some faithful readers might find the following analysis interesting.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848g5/government-agency-warns-global-oil-industry-is-on-the-brink-of-a-meltdown
**************

Debt saturation…..A big YIKES! Hopefully it is different this time!

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.20 at 11:16 pm

@Apocalypse 2020
“Bats causing illness in our nation’s capital region.’
+++++

Hmmmm, high methane levels in federal buildings.
It might explain two things.
Why Federal employees are full of crap.
Why Federal employees act like they are oxygen deprived.

#61 Mike on 02.11.20 at 12:48 am

Hey Garth, come visit Vancouver sometime and I’ll give you a tour of the pet “empty home” on my street. 3045 Glen Drive (you can google-maps it!) Been empty for 4 years. Owned by “Metro Vancouver”, who say it can’t be repaired, and since it sits over a water main, it can’t be torn down and rebuilt. Still worth $1 million:

https://opengovca.com/vancouver-property/011-190-205

Does this count as one of the 787 I wonder?

#62 John Hopkins on 02.11.20 at 3:08 am

BANNED

#63 BCWally on 02.11.20 at 3:45 am

I don’t know but every day I get a little more concerned about this situation in China. If you are in to copper or oil you already know what this could mean.
We tried getting some unique metal parts the other day. That was a no go because it came from China, no where else. I wonder how many other things only come from there.
Add this to the fact that no raw materials they buy from us in Canada are needed at the moment.
Ask yourself this, would you go back to work if there was a chance you could be infected and bring it back to your loved ones with no known vaccine, and almost no chance of medical aid?

#64 jerry on 02.11.20 at 4:33 am

The vacancy rate at the time the tax was imposed was 1%. Today it’s 1.1%. Fail. Rents have gone up, not down. And now YVR has just another tax, on top of the speculation tax, the foreign buyer’s tax and the big-house school tax. Taxes, of course, don’t make things cheaper so in Vancouver there’s just as serious an affordability problem as existed four years ago

“The CMHC called the number of long term rentals added to the Vancouver market “unprecedented” and attributed it to Vancouvers housing taxes.”
“But, there was one notable change to the region’s rental housing market that the CMHC is hoping to research in greater detail. For the first time since the CMHC has tracked this information, the number of long-term rental condos added, at 11,118, exceeded the number of new condo units added, at 9,142.”
“It means a number of existing units that were either being occupied, left empty or used as short-term rentals were converted to long-term rentals between 2018 and 2019, said Eric Bond, a Vancouver-based senior specialist of market analysis at CMHC, who wrote the report.”
“It’s unprecedented.”
“Bond wrote that this was especially the case in the downtown Vancouver area known as the Burrard Peninsula zone where 2,996 units were “added to the long-term rental universe while only 318 new units were added.”
“It’s a trend that coincides with a combination of policies, including the province’s speculation tax, the city’s empty homes tax, and various other new regulations for empty homes and short-term rentals, said Bond”
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/tight-vacancy-rates-and-higher-rents-but-more-long-term-rental-units-in-vancouver-cmhc

Also your claim that rents have gave gone up is not true. Here is what what Steve Saretsky says
“Ultimately rents peaked more than a year ago, which flies in the face of many reports. It’s important to understand how CMHC analyzes turn over rents.”
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1223696387394736128

And your final point that taxes don’t make housing more affordable has been proven wrong. Affordability means a drop in prices and we have seen 80 billion dollars of lost equity in Vancouver just last year alone. Condos and detached. In just a couple of years Vancouver went from 30 percent a year price increases to falling or flat prices since the housing taxes were introduced. These assessment drops throughout almost all of Metro Van are stunning. Even the cheaper areas have seen their assessments fall. That’s your affordability
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-property-assessment-metro-vancouver-2020

#65 crazyfox on 02.11.20 at 5:43 am

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-companies-were-supposed-to-return-to-work-today-but-the-coronavirus-is-still-a-problem/ar-BBZQofH

Lots of news like the link above. It’s going to be a staggered startup for Chinese factories and service industry in China. Some factories opened but with limited employees and capacity while others remained closed. With industry stake holders, perception is everything with the markets watching. What kind of actual production will be rolled out is anyone’s guess. The provinces and cities with higher case numbers infected by Corona virus will common sense face the most restrictions and we know where they are but the logistics of disruption to the global supply chain is anyone’s guess. Chinese officials are expected to make some kind of national official public announcement today that could move the markets.

The good news is, Corona virus numbers of infected dropped for the sixth day in a row from it’s peak of new cases, from 3,925 cases on Feb 4th to 2546 new cases on the 10th:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

As these numbers continue to drop, so will government restrictions within China. As for the virus reportedly going airborne, Asian mainstream media picked up on a story from a Shanghai health official saying Corona was airborne or could be transmitted through aerosols with media coverage like this:

https://www.citizensjournal.us/chinese-officials-confirm-coronavirus-is-airborne-disease/

The story ran for part of a day but has since been rebuffed with stories like this one:

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/2/11/novel-coronavirus-airborne-.html

Of course, when media makes reports of Corona going airborne, it does little to calm fears and paranoia. Even so, the rational mind must be thinking, “we still really don’t know”. New case numbers don’t suggest it. Perhaps a Japanese cruise ship will tell us what we need to know in a week’s time. 65 new cases were confirmed on one yesterday… still many unanswered questions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Flu killed 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth

#66 Steven Rowlandson on 02.11.20 at 6:03 am

Imagine the world with a antibiotic resistant pneumonic plague pandemic. Everyone living and their dog will be like the person and dog in the above picture.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.11.20 at 7:43 am

@#53 Vansurreal
“I can’t believe people are cheering on the reduction in Vancouver home prices caused by government interference in the free market.”

+++++

Kinda like the govt interference that “goosed” the market to ridiculous, unaffordable levels?
Thats ok?
No.
The housing price “not free for all” became an election issue pure and simple and THATS when the spineless gastropods we elected decided to actually do something about the rampant speculation, flipping and unaffordability.
Did you expect your purchase to increase in value forever?
Give your head a shake.
But not to worry.
Sounds like the Liberals will be doing a volte face with the new March 2020 budget to get those millennial buyers lining up at the housing trough again……

Happy days for the speculators.

#68 Phylis on 02.11.20 at 7:47 am

A cruise ship as a petri dish. It will be the center of a study, along with many others. Thoughts and prayers with all.
Chatted last night with someone there, the summation. Very serious.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.11.20 at 7:58 am

Gee with all the people staying indoors in China and no one going to work.
I actually saw blue sky in Beijing on the news yesterday.

#70 Nb on 02.11.20 at 8:13 am

Seems pretty obvious people just aren’t declaring that their properties are vacant so they can avoid the tax. Hence the dive in numbers post tax. Enforcement of the tax is basically impossible.

Your conclusion that the dive in numbers simply means “it isn’t a problem anymore” is more than a little disingenuous.

Non-compliance penalties are large. No evidence of widespread avoidance. And empty houses never were a problem – at least that’s what the data says. – Garth

#71 NoName on 02.11.20 at 9:13 am

Hey crazy foxy lady, remember that movie Variola Vera, that I mention about outbreak in Yugo in 70-s, it’s coming to Cleveland late March to mid April, with english subtitles too. Ackting is power rangers style, overdoing it. Whiskey in a movie 1960-something Chivas Regal.

https://www.clevelandfilm.org/films/2003/variola-vera

Here is trailer with English subtitles.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=variola+vera+trailer&qs=n&form=QBRE&scope=web&pc=EMMX20&sp=-1&pq=variola+vera+tr&sc=0-15&sk=&cvid=1F8C12FBB45F41ADBB42E87E780C08B5

#72 NoName on 02.11.20 at 9:15 am

Got the year wrong…

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.11.20 at 9:17 am

@#65 Steve Rowlandson
“Everyone living and their dog will be like the person and dog in the above picture.”

++++
I’ll take my un-Saran-wrapped chances with the plague…..

#74 Gordon's Gin on 02.11.20 at 9:39 am

BANNED. Please go away.

#75 Lorne on 02.11.20 at 10:13 am

#50 Barb on 02.10.20 at 9:47 pm
Everything Horgan touches fails.
And what he’s doing with/to ICBC is even worse than it was before he touched it.
…….
Really? You might want to actually take the blinders off.

#76 Damifino on 02.11.20 at 10:19 am

#58 DON

I wonder what, if not fossil fuels, will feed the necessary backup systems as the world attempts a switch to highly unreliable wind and solar? I vote for nuclear. In fact, why not just go straight there and be done with it?

#77 hookshott on 02.11.20 at 10:20 am

#53 Vanreal on 02.10.20 at 10:17 pm
I can’t believe people are cheering on the reduction in Vancouver home prices caused by government interference in the free market. How would you feel if the government decided to actively engage in a tax system aimed at reducing the value of your financial investments. Not so happy I would guess. Government needs to put in policies to promote an increase in the supply. Not tax the demand.
…………
Which real estate company do you work for?

#78 Grey Dog on 02.11.20 at 10:25 am

#3Linda
How do they know no one is home?
Living in Unionville we get a a water bill and hydro bill that literally compares us to our neighbours basically calling us the “highest consumers in our neighborhood for hydro and water.” We set dishwasher for after 7pm, only do laundry on weekends, we think we actually win this award because we LIVE there.

Know for a fact neighbour next door got a phone call letting them know they were consuming much more water than necessary and to check into why…leaky toilet that wasn’t obvious.

Now can they measure each condo for their consumption of water and hydro? I don’t know.

#79 Sail Away on 02.11.20 at 10:27 am

Last week a blogdog announced they were taking a position in levered in inverse SP500.

The timing seemed strange, so to prove a point, I took a position in 3x levered SPXL.

As of this morning, SPXL is up 4%. I assumed the inverse lever is down 4%. 8% spread in one week.

There might be a lesson here. Maybe be careful.

#80 yvr_lurker on 02.11.20 at 10:28 am

# 57 Todd is an unabashed racist and the local paper should be ashamed to carry his column. It will not be reprinted here. – Garth
——–

Well, I have not read him much before, but I thought that the article he wrote on Feb 9th was simply describing how the local housing stock is treated in other countries. How can that post be xenophobic? If you look up Todd’s CV online he is not just some fly-by-night character; He has won many awards over a very long period. An excerpt from it is at:

” Douglas Todd, a highly decorated journalist and author based in Canada, specializes in migration, ethics, diversity, spirituality and psychology, while remaining curious about most everything else.

Writing mostly for The Vancouver Sun, PostmediaNews and Religion News Service (Washington, D.C.), he has won a book prize and 32 journalism awards, while being shortlisted for 38 additional honours. Vancouver Magazine referred to him as “arguably Vancouver’s most thoughtful journalist.” He frequently gives talks in Canada and around the world.

Todd is the author or editor of three successful books, the most recent being Cascadia: The Elusive Utopia – Exploring the Spirit of the Pacific Northwest. He has been awarded with several educational scholarships, including the eight-month Jack Shadbolt Fellowship in the Humanities at Simon Fraser University.

In 2015 he was elected chair of the International Association for Religion Journalists (www.theiarj.org), which has more than 600 members in 90 countries. The IARJ has held conferences on five continents.

In 2013 he received an honorary doctorate from Vancouver School of Theology.”

——————–

I am not sure why you seem to seriously dislike this fellow. Your blog, your rules. Perhaps it is just like me who refuses to read anything that a convicted felon (Lord Black) would write for the National Post. To me it is a disgrace that they allow a convicted criminal any air-time.

There are aspects of this blog that are informative and interesting. However, when you continually slag the NDP Gov’t in BC for what the good that they are doing (Comrade Horgan) in the eyes of many people here, it really incites some of us to put on our riot gear. What about commenting on the factual post of #63 Jerry? Is it because it does not conform with your views?

The proof in the pudding will be when the NDP get another 4 year term here. They have followed through on what they said they would do, and the province (in general) is doing well, with balanced books etc….. very good governance, and they are much more pragmatic and not radicalized like Singh

#81 James on 02.11.20 at 10:36 am

The $26 billion merger between T-Mobile and Sprint has been approved, ending a years-long attempt to combine the United States’ 3rd & 4th biggest wireless carriers.
Stocks up 70% who saw this coming?

#82 James on 02.11.20 at 10:44 am

#67 Phylis on 02.11.20 at 7:47 am

A cruise ship as a petri dish. It will be the center of a study, along with many others. Thoughts and prayers with all.
Chatted last night with someone there, the summation. Very serious.
_____________________________________________
Hundo P not my jam. My parents went on a 10 day cruise and the next cruise after them a virus broke out on most of the ship. Not a pretty sight. My advise is to take those short 3-4 day cruises in the Caribbean or Mediterranean only. Less of an opportunity to mix it up with the other specimens in the dish.

#83 TF on 02.11.20 at 10:49 am

Interesting.

Nobody is talking about the companies that offer services to show the home is lived in. Like putting out Christmas decorations and a pumpkin on the front door.

Explain to me exactly how a city would have any clue if a house was “empty or not”.

Does the mayor stop in for dinner and look around?

Seems to me if somebody took the effort to use relatives to come over with the basic amount of cash allowed by law to buy a property, this would be a no brainier.

When was the last time you were stopped by the OPP/MNR asking for your fishing licence.

#84 TF on 02.11.20 at 10:54 am

If I was to spend $2.5 million in a property in Vancouver-pretty sure proving this IF (big if) you are even selected for an audit is simple.

ICBC vehicle insurance and registration
Government-issued personal identification, including, driver’s licence, BCID card, and British Columbia Services Card
Medical Services Plan invoice
Income tax returns and notices of assessment
Employment contracts, pay statements, or records of employment
Insurance certificates for homeowner’s(s’) insurance

BC is not a police state yet. People should be able to buy real estate, pay their property taxes and not worry about envious busybodies or invasive bureaucrats. – Garth

#85 Racist??? on 02.11.20 at 11:01 am

Todd is an unabashed racist and the local paper should be ashamed to carry his column. It will not be reprinted here. – Garth

———————————————————

No he’s not. His column is well researched and written. You are far too easily unhinged to label everyone a racist and xenophobe.

Censoring your blog to death is your choice and prerogative, but it has a negative impact on your credibility and open mindedness.

Now I can look forward to this comment either not being posted or a crass personal attack like we’ve seen about 5000 times.

My blog. My rules. Bye. – Garth

#86 James on 02.11.20 at 11:03 am

Flew in from Heathrow Monday after a week of meetings that were scheduled for Asia and I have to say the
Brits have their stuff together for the Corona virus. The destination China area in the airport was slower than usual and everyone wore masks. Destinations other than China were busy and masks were say 50-50. I believe the Brits have a good handle on isolation and control. Also it is as always a stiff upper lip for them. The general talk in our meetings is that China’s economy is starting to feel the effect of the virus. This slowly boiling of frogs from the leaders probably started way before the excrement hit the fan and the media. Now they have to show the world something positive, thus the made in a day hospitals, quarantines and travels bans. One of my contacts in Asia believes it will get worse over there before it gets better. He said the rest of us will never really know the outcome. Smoke and mirrors!

#87 TF on 02.11.20 at 11:03 am

BC is not a police state yet. People should be able to buy real estate, pay their property taxes and not worry about envious busybodies or invasive bureaucrats. – Garth

Agreed.

So a family buys a property with cash they are trying to get out of another country. (park it here in real estate) and send one relative over. (student) to go to school.

Presto-the $2.5 million property is “occupied”. Not an investment.

Even though its exactly that.

BTW. I live in a house now. Rental. Worth about 1 million. Owners are from Mainland China. I have not seen them in 2 years-with the exception of the Christmas card I get. They own 3 houses. Reason? Get cash out of China-need safety.

So what? You benefit. – Garth

#88 TF on 02.11.20 at 11:12 am

So what? You benefit. – Garth

Very much so.

Back of an envelope you do the math I cover 2.31% of the house. (well below the 5% rule)

And per lease they are on the hook for anything that breaks. Including the appliance’s.

I made a phone call last year that part of the roof blew off. Went to work and was fixed the next day.

#89 G on 02.11.20 at 11:22 am

I’m Praying for the people of China and the world, The CCP not so much or for that mater an military industrial complexes with mad scientist and bio weapons labs.
China capital under quarantine yesterday. I hope 14 days is long enough??? Heard it might be more, hope not.
Pick up 5-9 days later from surfaces.
Id china spraying stuff with SO2 or burning biomass?
Keep washing your hand with soap and stop touching your face. Are you ready? Knowledge is power.
The WHO guy didn’t answerer question if China is being open about info/real numbers. WHO only alowed to get in too China yesterday, CDC still kept out. Statred back ~Dec. 1.
Common sense says You don’t quarantine most of your country for “just the flu”! Analyses of genome shows it is engineered, with a pinch of HIV genome that seems to be shutting down the immune so the secondary infections get you, if the initial infection doesn’t. Seems so HIV antivirals may be helpful, but how much is there and how many ICU bad are there. PPE made in China and they stopped making/shipping. Some people filmed repacking used mask in Chana, are they shipping them over seas or just reselling for a buck?
Must be bad since more picture are getting out of China and police aren’t stopping people from filming. Like the dog walker above. Be safe everyone! I’m still praying very hard!!!

Evening Feb 10 12min
Dr. John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HCRmTHCUao

Coronavirus – Top 5 Questions, Causes & Best Solutions. Dr Sam Robbins Jan 28th 5min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tz8eweGKilw

Coronavirus outbreak: CDC provides update on ongoing response to virus | LIVE Feb 11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQj4cgOrWIc

UPDATE: What’s REALLY Happening? Feb 10 1hr5min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0ydfCQuttw

#90 Phylis on 02.11.20 at 11:22 am

#3Linda
How do they know no one is home?

I lived by myself in a SFD. The city sent a water meter company to my address to fix a “stuck” meter. It wasn’t. They still replaced it. Your tax dollars at work.

#91 yvr_lurker on 02.11.20 at 11:36 am

There are some informative things on this blog, but on some key issues there is a wide gulf. I’m done, I am going to break the addiction of reading anything from here. This is why I would never vote for a conservative gov’t. We don’t have the same world view.

Close your ears. Good solution. – Garth

#92 TCC101 on 02.11.20 at 11:40 am

Which ‘rules’ did TCC violate to have him banned (actually, ‘silenced’ is more accurate, as you never labelled any of his posts as ‘BANNED’)?

Your blog, your rules – but which rules were violated?

Just Curious (TCC is a friend of mine)

He was disrespectful and insulted me, forgetting that he (like you) is my guest here. This blog is a privilege, not a right. – Garth

#93 paul on 02.11.20 at 12:06 pm

This will work .lol

Coronavirus Updates: The Illness Now Has a Name: COVID-19

The World Health Organization said it had chosen a name for the disease that makes no reference to places, animals or people to avoid stigmatizing anyone.

#94 kommykim on 02.11.20 at 12:17 pm

Garth and Dogs might find this interesting. The mortgage calculator on the CMHC site is completely wrong. I was checking some numbers for a friend, and noticed that the calculator never showed the mortgage being paid off at the end of the amortization period. So I put in a much higher interest rate (17%) and the graph at the bottom showed a $400K mortgage turning into a $850K liability after 25 years!!!

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/finance-and-investing/mortgage-loan-insurance/homebuying-calculators/mortgage-calculator/mortgage-calculator-result?mc_PurchasePrice=%24500%2C000&mc_DownPayment=%24100%2C000&mc_AmortizationPeriod=25&mc_Interest=17&mc_Frequency=1

#95 SimplyPut7 on 02.11.20 at 12:21 pm

I’m sure the stock market will be okay as long as Powell and other central banks keep printing money.

The world, on the other hand, will reflect the true state of society, if COVID-19 super spreaders don’t take us out first.

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/02/10/18/24550148-7988141-image-a-98_1581359908613.jpg

World Health Organization’s director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated today vaccine could take 18 months.

I don’t think many countries have the ability to keep 400 million people out of work and school as China does.

How will the virus affect tourism in Canada, the airline industry and our precious real estate market heavily dependent on the illusion of foreign investment controlling the industry to keep prices inflated?

Who knows, but we’ll just keep printing money to create more trillionaire companies, that will solve everything.

#96 GAV on 02.11.20 at 12:37 pm

Great circular thinking Garth.

You have never, and continue to double down(sic) your complete and purposeful ignorance of what is going on in lower mainland real estate.

Remember your ridiculous “its the bank of mom and dad” claim?

Remember what Chip Wilson ( the owner of the most expensive house in Vancouver) days:
These people can think of ways of avoiding taxes a lot faster than governments can dream them up”.

Its misinformation like yours that has and countinues to make Vancouver unaffordable, unless you are a 0 income mother or an 18 year old UBC student who needs a place to park their lambo.

Feel free to correct facts in this blog post. Chip and I will take you to Starbucks on Robson once for each score. – Garth

#97 IHCTD9 on 02.11.20 at 12:56 pm

#90 yvr_lurker on 02.11.20 at 11:36 am

There are some informative things on this blog, but on some key issues there is a wide gulf. I’m done, I am going to break the addiction of reading anything from here. This is why I would never vote for a conservative gov’t. We don’t have the same world view.

Close your ears. Good solution. – Garth

_____

Good grief Yvr, do you toss and turn at night knowing that other folks think differently than you?

#98 Matt on 02.11.20 at 1:15 pm

These numbers seem kinda Frankenstiny. maybe i got this wrong but it looks like the empty house tax brings in 38 million a year off of a a 1% tax.

if theres roughly 800 empty houses that means the average tax a home owner pays is somewhere around 50K annually. it also makes the average cost of the real estate in that group around 5 mill. which makes sense if they’re not condos, but house in the British properties.

So on second glance I guess that makes more sense. people that buy condos for investment properties air bNB them. a friend of mine’s dad has 5 condos downtown. He air bnbs all of them out. he’s actually never been here, lives in Israel. pays his daughter to operate them. neither of them are citizens. I think thats a big problem here in van. you were right about government getting involved in corrections, nothing significant came of it. Some politicians have more money to be irresponsible with now. The truth is, its a global market. If that never changes we will always be competing with the global 1% or portion there of. I think we put a cap on how much global investment we allow per city every year, and allow for more investment in places that are less populated like chetwynd, or quesnelle. It would allow for more development throughout the provinces and I think bring a better quality of life for everyone. it would bring more diversification and culture to the smaller communities and it would slow down the overcrowding of the big cities. over crowding hurts everyones quality of life. it eats at time and peoples pocket books. I think if we keep the empty house tax we should use it bring back the grizz!

#99 Racist??? on 02.11.20 at 1:16 pm

DELETED

#100 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.20 at 1:34 pm

#48 45north on 02.10.20 at 9:44 pm

HereGoesNothing: I was looking into this for a friend, and if the strata prohibits rentals, then there is an exemption from the tax for the next few years (until 2021).

=====================

EXACTLY….

Driving around Richmond and Vancouver at night one can see the majority of new hi- rise condos ZERO lights on…aka vacant…lets get real via actual observations.

So Garth is correct on the one hand…but all a strata has to do is pass a “no rental” bylaw and avoid the tax.

#101 Sold Out on 02.11.20 at 1:36 pm

#90 yvr_lurker on 02.11.20 at 11:36 am

There are some informative things on this blog, but on some key issues there is a wide gulf. I’m done, I am going to break the addiction of reading anything from here. This is why I would never vote for a conservative gov’t. We don’t have the same world view.

Close your ears. Good solution. – Garth

_____

Good grief Yvr, do you toss and turn at night knowing that other folks think differently than you?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

If we can make any sweeping statements regarding the relative open-mindedness of commenters here, it seems to me that people who lean politically left yet still interact with a conservative blog are probably more receptive to new ideas than conservatives who hang around right-leaning blogs.

#102 G on 02.11.20 at 1:53 pm

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 15: Underreporting, Prevention, 24 Day Incubation? (2019-nCoV)
MedCram – Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY
Feb 11 12min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o804wu5h_ms

#103 Sold Out on 02.11.20 at 1:55 pm

#96 GAV on 02.11.20 at 12:37 pm
Great circular thinking Garth.

You have never, and continue to double down(sic) your complete and purposeful ignorance of what is going on in lower mainland real estate.

Remember your ridiculous “its the bank of mom and dad” claim?

Remember what Chip Wilson ( the owner of the most expensive house in Vancouver) days:
These people can think of ways of avoiding taxes a lot faster than governments can dream them up”.

Its misinformation like yours that has and countinues to make Vancouver unaffordable, unless you are a 0 income mother or an 18 year old UBC student who needs a place to park their lambo.

Feel free to correct facts in this blog post. Chip and I will take you to Starbucks on Robson once for each score. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

We don’t yet have the tools, or political will, to render this information available for public dissemination. Given the importance of immigration to Canada, we may never reach that point.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

#104 G on 02.11.20 at 1:58 pm

Coronavirus Could Infect SIXTY PERCENT Of The World Population Expert Warns, This Is Getting SERIOUS
Feb. 11 16min

#105 Keith in Rio on 02.11.20 at 2:08 pm

It’s comforting to know Garth knocked on the door of every single property in YVR to make his claims. It’s not beyond landlords of all races and religions to commit fraud thru fake leases and occupancy. Like the city can monitor this……lol.

Give it up. The claim of tens of thousands of empty houses was utterly false. – Garth

#106 G on 02.11.20 at 2:47 pm

Feb 11 from that Infowars site some think is …
I’m not going to link this. I didn’t even look at the video. Could the Chinese CCP know how bad this virus is, since the WHO is just being allowed in today?!
For dogs sake I hope the WHO doesn’t find out with more data it can be spread by Dogs/Cats.
People getting sick and dying is bad enough!

Report: Chinese Officers “Beating Dogs To Death” To Prevent Spread of Coronavirus
“As long as [we] see a dog in the complex, no matter if it is on the leash or not, we will beat it to death”

so far Feb11 WHO said they don’t have evidence that pets can be infected.
A Humane Society International (HSI) spokesperson said, “The advice by the World Health Organisation that there is no evidence dogs and cats can be infected with the virus, needs to be heard throughout China.”

(but if it can be spread/picked up from surfaced for 5-9 days couldn’t pets spread it about, even if they don’t get infected???)
The actions China is taking does not look like this virus is “just the flu”!

Link I seemed to have mist adding from #104 from Timcast 16min (if it was edited out, do the same here.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RN04fGB8tjc&t=2s

#107 corona on 02.11.20 at 2:59 pm

This is an exercise in controlling the masses. I think even they are surprised at how easy it can be done. Free will is so yesterday. be very concerned. someone let the cat out of the bag early as the vaccine isn’t quite ready yet. Each year we are taken further down the worm hole to a totalitarian state – globally!

#108 G on 02.11.20 at 3:00 pm

Coronavirus: China’s economy takes huge hit – and President Xi appears in public
Channel 4 News Feb 10 3min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsDzF_eGb-w

#109 Sold Out on 02.11.20 at 3:02 pm

This strata insurance crisis is just one more symptom of delusional property valuations in towns like YVR, GTA, and NY. More reason to enact measures to bring values back to earth.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-stratas-on-edge-after-reports-of-soaring-insurance-premiums

#110 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.20 at 3:07 pm

Some interesting info….

Black Swan Updates and Observations:

https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/02/black-swan-updates-and-observations/
=======
What’s This New Coronavirus Outbreak Really All About?

https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/01/whats-this-new-coronavirus-outbreak-really-all-about/

=======

IMHO…this is all staged crisis..that this matter has resonated in CHINA fits a historical pattern..

#111 AGuyInVancouver on 02.11.20 at 3:10 pm

#87 TF on 02.11.20 at 11:03 am
BC is not a police state yet. People should be able to buy real estate, pay their property taxes and not worry about envious busybodies or invasive bureaucrats. – Garth

Agreed.

So a family buys a property with cash they are trying to get out of another country. (park it here in real estate) and send one relative over. (student) to go to school.

Presto-the $2.5 million property is “occupied”. Not an investment.

Even though its exactly that.

BTW. I live in a house now. Rental. Worth about 1 million. Owners are from Mainland China. I have not seen them in 2 years-with the exception of the Christmas card I get. They own 3 houses. Reason? Get cash out of China-need safety.

So what? You benefit. – Garth
_ _ _
Oh sure, we all benefit from having some offshore buyer pay millions for a house that was worth a third of that when the market was linked to local incomes. No doubt you’ll enlighten us all on how wonderful globalism in real estate is. After all, think of the bevy of retail clerk jobs at Chanel and Gucci it has created. If they’re lucky they can share bedrooms in one of those rented homes.

Envy will eat you. – Garth

#112 Linda on 02.11.20 at 3:50 pm

#31 ‘Here’ – I went online to read the actual bylaw. I didn’t read it all, but noted that strata units (which I’m pretty sure means condos) were exempted if they were built prior to a certain year, or if their strata rules prohibited renting out units. Your post mentions a possible exemption expiry date of 2021, so perhaps this issue may yet erupt in YVR.

#78 ‘Grey’ & #90 ‘Phylis’ – I’m not sure whether utility usage or lack thereof would be enough to determine whether a unit was occupied. The leaky toilet is a good example of how a unit might look like usage was occurring even if it were standing empty. My partner had a contract with a local utility company which consisted of checking the accuracy of utility charges. There were a lot of accounts where there were errors in usage that required adjusting. Some were grossly overcharged, some were vastly undercharged. In one case, one account holder was being billed for an adjoining units usage in addition to their own units usage & this had apparently been happening for at least 3 years! Needless to say, that account had a whopping refund & the next door neighbor suddenly had an equally whopping bill.

#13 ‘Damn’ – just a guess, but I take it you are in favor of the empty homes tax…..

#5 ‘JB’ – happy to provide a smile:)

#113 Lost...but not leased on 02.11.20 at 3:58 pm

Give it up. The claim of tens of thousands of empty houses was utterly false. – Garth
=============================

Actually…as usual..the data needs to be taken with a grain of salt….

Many homes in the Lower Mainland area are VACANT via boarded up and have been for years….just drive down the Cambie Corridor. Give or take a year or two…the homes deteriorate and can never be occupied again. Given the tax structure…they can’t be demolished or major tax hit.

FYI: an article in the Vancouver Sun years ago duly noted this Cambie area had a high Chinese concentration of ownership,and due to the language issue…this was corridor was chosen to be a high density area….aka the owners would not fight the rezoning…as opposed to the Arbutus Corridor (and it’s NIMBY’s)which was another potential option, given it already had a dedicated rail line easement.

Your view of who won versus who lost….

#114 SimplyPut7 on 02.11.20 at 4:09 pm

#102 G on 02.11.20 at 1:53 pm

China said it could be as much as 42 days.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1227031722811748352

My theory is the incubation period is longer but not that long (maybe 24 days as the internet “experts” are guessing). The person probably got the virus from another person with mild symptoms or asymptomatic (the super spreaders). Both the person who left Wuhan and the super spreader would probably have not been self-quarantined in their homes if they had no symptoms.

#115 crazyfox on 02.11.20 at 6:36 pm

Flu killed 56,000 Americans and 3,500 Canadians last year. Get a grip. – Garth

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

A quote: “With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks.

Maybe the guy’s a village idiot living in a bubble, increasing self importance with the sound of his own voice. Or, maybe not. Very grave threat to the rest of the world, I think he said…

Of course, Corona hasn’t killed anyone here, this is not a North American problem but it is Chinese problem with global implications. There’s risk in this virus, not just the economic risk, but the much higher fatality rate than a less than .1% typical influenza rate coupled with the rate of spread if this virus goes global.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Again, lets look at the numbers. 37,758 currently infected, 43,148 confirmed cases and the number that isn’t there above, 21,675 cases suspected. It’s this last number that should concern us. How many cases are being unconfirmed and unreported?

The rate of infection is still a mystery. Reports are coming in that the Rate of infection around 2.5 but this is a guess. In China, under quarantine conditions etc., it’s likely around 2.2 and without precaution say pre-corona awareness it could be more like 3.5. If you read the article, the WHO doesn’t know yet if its airborne. The WHO didn’t even get into China until today. (bit late, I know)

A week ago, the fatality rate of CV was 2%. Today, it’s 2.5% as the aggregate of infected grows older and as evidenced by the data, the predicted trend is up. This isn’t a typical flu virus with a .1% fatality rate (according to models), its a virus with a demonstrated fatality rate of 4.9% in the city of Wuhan with an aggregate of infected that wasn’t fully aged (or with the best hospital care). All things considered including unreported cases? 4.1% fatality rate is what we might expect with a strong caution. This virus can still mutate raising or lowering the rate. Reported cases, we can look toward to at least a 5% fatality rate (unless once again, it mutates).

What can take this number down are mild cases that go unreported. The downside to this is that larger numbers of mild cases means more viral spreaders, and higher rate of spread that will make it hard if not possible to contain. It’s a catch 22. Hope for a higher fatality rate means a lower rate of spread and vice versa.

The takeaway is, if this virus goes global and rate of transmission suggests that it will and its here to stay with no vaccine to stop it, it will kill 9 figures of the population over 5 years and that’s a big deal. If then. If, then its a slow burn black swan. Global GDP could be set back as much as 2.5% annual through Q1, Q2 and Q4.

#116 Annick Dotal on 02.11.20 at 9:54 pm

The government should not rely on self-reporting. People lie. Those numbers should be much higher. All 3 levels of government should work together – identifying unoccupied units is possible. And would’ve more accurate than any self reporting.

#117 Steven Rowlandson on 02.12.20 at 7:41 am

RE #75 That is rather risky since the pneumonic plague spreads easier and is more lethal than the normal plague that kills 35% to 50%of those that catch it. Pneumonic plague is the airborne version and kills at rates up to 90%
It is something far worse than that wimpy corona virus.
It was the bug that inspired the song ,”Ring around the rosy.” Every time there is a mini ice age like the one we are in the plague occurs regularly. It gets cooler and wetter and the world gets greener in places where the Yersina Pestis bacillus lives. The population of small mammals explodes and so does the fleas they carry. In that situation the animals get infected and they start hanging out with people and people get bitten by fleas. After a while the bacillus goes airborne due to people coughing and producing an infectious aerosol. This is not funny and needs to be taken seriously. The plague has taken residence in small animals in the southwestern United States but it originated in the area north of the Himalayas. It spread to Europe in the 14th century due to world trade, migration of people and sloppy border control.
Do you feel lucky?

#118 Steven Rowlandson on 02.12.20 at 7:51 am

Garth how easy would it be for parliament to ban foreign real estate ownership in Canada and also define renting residential properties as Usury and ban it or severely regulate rents to being a small portion of the tenants income? Parliament does claim supremacy does it not?

Your blog is here. – Garth