Going viral

You may be SOL on buying a N95 face mask in Vancouver, and the Toronto subway’s packed with wearers, but the markets think this virus thing is old. After an uncertain, risk-off plop last week, the bulls are back.

Oil’s rebounded. Copper, too. Bond yields have jumped higher and prices fallen. Gold gave up another twenty bucks an ounce on Tuesday. Even Chinese markets were crawling with bargain-hunters – and there were lots of them to be had. North American equities have resumed their steady upward trajectory, led by the legendary, weird, iconoclastic Elon Musk and his red Tesla.

The S&P 500 is on a tear. European stocks have jumped. The world seems to think hard-asses in Beijing did the right thing by quarantining 50 million people and taking extreme measures to halt the spread of the coronavirus, despite the economic damage. So, it’s done. Now investors are focused on the stuff that makes them money – a US manufacturing rebound, lower trade tensions, and the re-election of the orange guy.

The S&P 500 is sitting on a 12-month gain of 23% while Bay Street is ahead 16% for the last 12 months and above 3% just for 2020. Both markets are closing in on new record highs. Balanced, diversified, predictable, boring, comatose, wake-me-when-retired portfolios were ahead about 15% in 2019, and that continues. Once again people who sold on market panic were spanked. They forgot our cardinal rule: it’s all noise.

The reason? Corporate earnings continue to be robust. Central bankers have investors’ backs. Inflation is contained. Trade tensions are fading. Brexit is over, sort of. US unemployment is at a 50-year low and consumer confidence is high. And did I mention the orange guy will be re-elected?

Trump’s approval rate just hit its highest level – even as his abuse of power allegations were proven in Congress – and meanwhile the Democrats apparently couldn’t organize a two-car funeral in Iowa. As the Dems drift left, with the irascible Sanders spouting socialism atop the shoulders of his clueless Millennial army, the more the current president looks normal. Now, who ever thought that would happen?

Lessons from the virus?

Mr. Market is a lot less emotional than you. Stocks have been going up because of corporate profits, GDP growth, the restoration of free trade and – yes, kids – globalism. China acted responsibly, quickly and in doing so earned new respect. I think it’s time we gave Meng back, don’t you?

              

One of the big banks, the green one, dropped its posted 5-year mortgage rate this week. The decline is about a third of a point, and it comes (a) after the bank regulator hinted the stress test rate should no longer be attached to posted rates because they’re too high and (b) just as listings are pushing their way through the snow and the spring rutting season begins.

No, nobody borrows money at the bank posted rate (now 4.99% at TD), but not only does this set the stress test, it ripples through to other lending costs. For example, a five-year mortgage at the green bank is now available for about 2.8% if you’re nice and tell [email protected] she has kind eyes. Given inflation is 2.2% (at least), this is the kind of loan you should be in no hurry to pay off.

As for the stress test, if another bank or two follows the TD’s lead, the hurdle borrowers must clear could drop to a little under 5% for the first time in a couple of years. (It’s currently 5.19%.) This would mean less income required to qualify for a loan, and an increase in the amount someone can borrow. Yes, just what we need – more people heading into the busiest buying season of the year with more money when there’s a listings shortage.

A stress test rate chop also means bigger refis – the amount of money available to people looking to borrow when they renew so they can have a remodeled bathroom. Additionally, a drop in the posted rate means it costs less to get out of an existing mortgage, clearing the way to move into a bigger house!

Well, there you go. FOMO money.

Now just imagine if Chateau Bill follows the orders contained in the prime minister’s mandate letter and makes the stress test “more dynamic’ by relaxing its requirements through the coming budget. This comes after the Libs boosted the money available through the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan by 40%, plus enhanced the equity-shared mortgage by inflating the ceiling to $800,000.

Government ain’t helping. Quelle surprise.

 

132 comments ↓

#1 bdwy on 02.04.20 at 3:16 pm

tesla is a mania exceeding anything back in 99.

wow.

tip? wait to 1000 , then buy!

#2 Dave on 02.04.20 at 3:23 pm

Tesla stock is headed to $1000

#3 Cat Guy on 02.04.20 at 3:26 pm

Ah, the things that dogs can get away with!

#4 Sail away on 02.04.20 at 3:38 pm

And… 10-bagger! 3rd one in 10 years. Whoop!

#5 I'm not so sure .... on 02.04.20 at 3:40 pm

Meng would want to go back right now.

#6 Stone on 02.04.20 at 3:49 pm

China acted responsibly, quickly and in doing so earned new respect. I think it’s time we gave Meng back, don’t you?

———

I believe in the rule of law. Don’t you?

#7 Steve French on 02.04.20 at 3:49 pm

Phyyyyyrrrrrrssssssstttt!!

Sucks to be you, Smoking Man!

#8 Shawn Allen on 02.04.20 at 3:52 pm

Penalty to Break a Mortgage

“Additionally, a drop in the posted rate means it costs less to get out of an existing mortgage,…”

**************************
The sentence above sounds backwards to me but I have never seen a clear explanation of how the interest differential works, so I don’t know.

If the bank has you locked in at say 4% for three more years and the market rate (or some fake posted reference rate) on 3 year loans drops to 3% that should mean the bank would not want to see you get out of the mortgage and the penalty should be bigger?

The lower rates drop, the bigger the penalty to get out should be?

???

#9 phil on 02.04.20 at 3:52 pm

Ha! so sad congress only proved the dems abuse of power. Dude stick to finance and real estate.

#10 Camille on 02.04.20 at 4:01 pm

More market follow through today. But last thursday’s market changed direction when the WHO labelled coronavirus a global emergency. My take, without disrespect to the sick, beginning of the end for coronavirus?

#11 The State of the Banana Republic on 02.04.20 at 4:02 pm

Crazy Dems…..if ya shoot for the king, ya gotta kill him…oops…. Trump in a cakewalk, go trump go!

#12 The Wet One on 02.04.20 at 4:04 pm

I was going to write “First” but meh, I don’t really care.

As for the virus, well, I’m not feeling it. Thankfully. I don’t think it will end the world either.

Get the bargains while they’re hot!

Boo yaa!

#13 Re-Cowtown on 02.04.20 at 4:05 pm

Bernie wants to ban fracking in the US. I guess no one told him the 98% of the wells drilled today are fracked. If the US banned fracking gas at the pump would go to $50 a gallon and the San Diego Zoo would be turned into a BBQ shack, just like in Venezuela.

Idiots abound.

#14 IHCTD9 on 02.04.20 at 4:19 pm

Now just imagine if Chateau Bill follows the orders contained in the prime minister’s mandate letter and makes the stress test “more dynamic’ …
___

I’ve got to try this bamboozle on Ms. IH to see if she bites.

Yo, I need a more “dynamic” truck.

#15 Orange Man Good! on 02.04.20 at 4:24 pm

#9 phil on 02.04.20 at 3:52 pm
Ha! so sad congress only proved the dems abuse of power. Dude stick to finance and real estate.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The abuse of power charge wasn’t “proved”. It was utterly illogical.

Trump has the constitutional responsibility to set foreign policy.

Your argument makes as much sense as firing a janitor because he abused his power by sweeping the floor.

It was his job. You may not like how he did it, but he had every right to do it that way.

#16 wallflower on 02.04.20 at 4:27 pm

More scotch. Less cerebellum.
What is your brand, Garth?
Think I owe you a bottle.

#17 Orange Man Good! on 02.04.20 at 4:27 pm

My apologies. I realized later that you were commenting on the DEMOCRATS abuse of power.

My Bad.

Orange Man Good’s bad.

#18 Doug t on 02.04.20 at 4:41 pm

The world is run by psychopaths – and the crazy train keeps screaming head long in the abbyse

#19 Joe on 02.04.20 at 5:03 pm

Want ro lighten the mood? I am interested in bringing us back to the buy versus lease a car argument. I don’t do this just to be obtuse or to watch the fireworks as people get animated. I buy your argument on leasing. But, when you mention the low rates for borrowing money, i think of a new twist. Why not borrow the money to buy a car at these low rates, buy an etf or dividend stocks with it. Sell etfs that you already own. Buy the car. Pay the loan with the dividends. And collect a tax credit on the loan because you bought stocks with it.
Enjoy your blog very much joe

#20 BC_Doc on 02.04.20 at 5:11 pm

Nike is warning of an earning hit from CV.
Ford down 9% after hours.
Hyundai has just suspended South Korea production.
I suspect the2009-2020 bull run is done.

#21 Linda on 02.04.20 at 5:23 pm

Inflation up to 2.2%. Well, at least there has been movement upward, which given the number of notifications we’ve been seeing for cost of living increases in various goods & services makes perfect sense.

#5 ‘I’m’ – too true!

#22 Stephen on 02.04.20 at 5:24 pm

“ Balanced, diversified, predictable, boring, comatose, wake-me-when-retired portfolios”
The “wake-me-when-retired” phrase makes me wonder at what age a senior should begin to move away from the recommended 60/40 portfolio to something a little more conservative. Should a 70 year old (for example) maybe have a 50/50 split? Asking for a friend…

Death would be an ideal time. – Garth

#23 espressobob on 02.04.20 at 5:26 pm

Opportunities usually present themselves when everyone is looking the other way.

#24 Leichendiener on 02.04.20 at 5:33 pm

As the saying goes: ‘If you are going to kill the king, make sure you succeed.’ Impeachment? Maybe the Democrats should hone their voting apps skill.

#25 Buttgig vs Bernie on 02.04.20 at 5:37 pm

Well that’s wrap…..4 more for Trump

#26 Joseph R. on 02.04.20 at 5:47 pm

#9 phil on 02.04.20 at 3:52 pm
Ha! so sad congress only proved the dems abuse of power. Dude stick to finance and real estate.

—————————————————–

Which Dem abuse of power are you talking about?

#27 yorkville renter on 02.04.20 at 5:47 pm

GOP senators are gutless cowards… the double speak and misinformation would make George Orwell and George Washington roll in their graves.

I hope they all lose come November.

I’d rather an honest ‘socialist lite’ than a ‘criminal capitalist’ as US President

#28 IHCTD9 on 02.04.20 at 6:02 pm

#19 Joe on 02.04.20 at 5:03 pm
Want ro lighten the mood? I am interested in bringing us back to the buy versus lease a car argument.
— —

This is more a question about the buyers’ tolerance for headaches. Lease if you got more money than patience. Buy if you want more bang for the buck.

Best bang for the buck when buying:

1. Buy a 15 year old unicorn that took you months to find. It’s got under 150k on the clock, has an easy to fix problem, and is in mint shape. No one wants it, you buy it for 1500.00 and fix it yourself, then drive it for 1-200k.

2. Buy 3-4 year old car in perfect shape for half the cost of new. Drive it for 10 years, get a couple years warranty out of the deal.

3. Buy new at the end of the year. Get 0% financing on a 7 year loan from the dealer. Pay only 5-800.00/mo. depending on what you bought, and enjoy a full warranty – some dealerships even hand out free oil changes for as long as you own the car.

#29 Boris Corbyn on 02.04.20 at 6:24 pm

Seems mayor Pete is leading in Iowa. unexpected.

I liked Yang, clever guy, in tune with the (potential) future

Don’t vote in the USA anyway, didn’t vote for T2 and he still got ‘elected’. Why am I rambling on a blog? Is there intelligent life on earth?

#30 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 6:27 pm

The world seems to think hard-asses in Beijing did the right thing by quarantining 50 million people and taking extreme measures to halt the spread of the coronavirus, despite the economic damage…China acted responsibly, quickly and in doing so earned new respect. I think it’s time we gave Meng back, don’t you?

If Trump did the same, in the following impeachment by the Democrats, Congress would have proved that he was the biggest human rights violator and abuser of presidential power in US history, who must be locked up and banned from politics for life :)

#31 Rexx Rock on 02.04.20 at 6:34 pm

The Fed has got our back.Momentum stocks are the way to go get rich.TSLA went from $200 to $967 in a few months.I call this the Vancouver or a GTA house kinda of stock.Just buy and watch it sky rocket and get rich ! Great Times in the stock market baby !!!!

#32 Shirl Clarts on 02.04.20 at 6:42 pm

Well the Corona pullback correction lasted about as long as the common cold.

Part of me wants to hear about another one of Garth’s clients demanding “take me to cash”. Yes, I’m sad that way.

#33 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 6:44 pm

#27 yorkville renter on 02.04.20 at 5:47 pm

I’d rather an honest ‘socialist lite’ than a ‘criminal capitalist’ as US President

You would not be renting in Yorkville for long – unless you turned into a ‘criminal socialist’.

#34 Sail away on 02.04.20 at 6:53 pm

Another TRUMP GOING DOWN FOR SURE!… Oh, maybe if… well, it’s sorta like… not happening

nothing burger

Just why?

#35 Laura on 02.04.20 at 6:54 pm

I wouldn’t brush off the Wuhan coronovirus so lightly. It still has not been contained. I work with a couple factories in China, so far both are delaying return to work for 20 days (this is after already being off work for Chinese New year). I wouldn’t be surprised if return to work will be delayed further for most companies. I have also talked to colleagues that conduct business with China as well and their factories are reporting similar delays for return to work.

The stock market went up today after massive injection from the Chinese government. Coronovirus numbers are vastly underreported. The next 1-2 weeks will be critical in determining how the virus will play out.

#36 Shawn Allen on 02.04.20 at 6:56 pm

Interest Differential to get out of a fixed rate mortgage early.

Further to my comment at number 8.

The lower rates drop, the bigger the penalty to get out should be?

So many regulars here would pride themselves on their financial literacy. So, will anyone dare to say how the math of an interest differential works? Whether the penalty will increase or decrease with TD’s lower posted mortgage rates.

The more I think about it, the penalty should definitely go up as interest rates drop. With lower rates the borrower benefits more (absent a penalty) from breaking the mortgage early and the bank is harmed more and so will charge a bigger penalty.

#37 Caledondave on 02.04.20 at 6:59 pm

No worries. I still have 144 N95 masks from SARS days. All in plastic packaging. I wonder what I can sell them for?

#38 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.04.20 at 7:06 pm

Congress proved no such thing. They proved they are inept maybe.

#39 Genesis II on 02.04.20 at 7:08 pm

“North American equities have resumed their steady upward trajectory, led by the legendary, weird, iconoclastic Elon Musk and his red Tesla.”

Savvy investors all of them!!! Or … Greater Fools.

Time will tell!
My sense is that any parabolic movement in price is FOMO and bound to crash, in due time.

#40 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 7:10 pm

At the time when Trump’s abuse of power allegations were “proven” by the partizan members of the Democratic majority House in the Congress, Biden’s abuse of power evidence were proven by Democratic voters at the Iowa caucus.

#41 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 7:14 pm

I think it is still to early to lower the yellow caution flag on this nCov thing. By this time in the SARS crisis things were pretty much under control, as SARS was far easier to detect once it was contagious. Total cases and deaths from nCov are already higher than the totality of the SARS crisis and things are still headed exponentially up with nCov.

However, I am not convinced that nCov is some kind of bio-weapon that is going to decimate the population. Most people who get it recover just like with any other flu. The death rate is worryingly higher, but if you are young and in good health even if you get it your chances are good. Remember, regular flues already kill something like 80,000 people a year in the US and we don’t really think much about it. The main problem with nCov is the the “n” part, “novel”, which means there is no heard immunity at this point so it can transmit at much higher rates. But after it passes it’ll just be another one of many viruses in circulation. Or at least let’s hope so.

I’m not expert in biology, but what we are looking at here is going to be much bigger than SARS, but it will not be a Spanish flu. Even if infection rates get that high, survival rates will be much higher, and the whole thing will be over probably by summer.

But the economic impacts could be another thing altogether. When SARS hit China was 5% of the world economy. It’s 20% now. (Those numbers could be off but they are indicative.) SARS never lead to the wholesale quarantine of 100 million people, with probably much more to come. It’s not just the schools but also the factories that are closing. The supply chain disruption is unprecedented outside a world war. As mentioned Kia is shutting down production due to lack of parts and they aren’t even it the same country! Foxx Con has shut down so this means no more iPhones in California. What is Apple going to sell? Fortunately for Ford, GM and Chrysler most of their cheepy parts come from Mexico, but you only need a few parts coming from China to disrupt production here too. North American auto companies do not so much build cars anymore as just design and assemble them almost like from a model kit you buy at the hobby store. Maybe you younger kids don’t remember that.

This thing is more complicated than that, though. Oil demand is down 3 million barrels a day in China, mostly because so many people cannot leave their houses and their factories are closed. This is causing a reaction by OPEC to support prices by cutting production but guess what? That still means less money for OPEC producers who are selling less oil even if they can support the price. And it is bound to mean the already horrific bankruptcy rates in the shale industry can only get worse.

As I said, from a disease perspective this nCov thing is likely to be over by summer. Some people will die but not everybody. Not even most people. Largely they will be the cohort most at risk from our usual viruses. But what we haven’t seen before is what happens to the economy, a highly leveraged, globally distributed, just-in-time economy experiences a major disruption. That is what I think the major lesson will be here.

———————-

Conspiracy Story Time! (Pause while I put on my tin-foil hat.) What if nCov really isn’t a big deal and China is sending Trump a trade deal message by over-reacting? Everyone agrees Trump’s chances in the upcoming election (now less than a year away) hinge largely on how the economy is doing. Now, doing something overt like crashing the US dollar by liquidating US treasuries would be as obvious as the daytime sun, so that’s not a good idea for China. You need something covert. Something that people would say was crazy to allege you did on purpose. Something people would say the reaction was appropriate or even late and insufficient. nCov fits the bill nicely. How convenient that this crises just popped up 10 months before the next US election, and the incumbent started a trade war with the country where it originated? Remember, no US president could intentionally start a recession and get re-elected, but in China they need not worry about such things. Hmmmm. But I doubt the Chinese came up with such an idea before-hand. I just thought of it now. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t use the opportunity though. If China wanted to send a message to the world that their participation in the global economy is no longer negotiable, I think they just did it, whether they caused the opportunity or not.

Ok, conspiracy over, that didn’t happen. It would make a good movie though. The reason I don’t think that it happened that way is that people aren’t that foresighted. They react to events, they don’t cause them.

#42 joe on 02.04.20 at 7:21 pm

19 Joe on 02.04.20 at 5:03 pm
Want ro lighten the mood? I am interested in bringing us back to the buy versus lease a car argument.
— —

This is more a question about the buyers’ tolerance for headaches. Lease if you got more money than patience. Buy if you want more bang for the buck.

Best bang for the buck when buying:

1. Buy a 15 year old unicorn that took you months to find. It’s got under 150k on the clock, has an easy to fix problem, and is in mint shape. No one wants it, you buy it for 1500.00 and fix it yourself, then drive it for 1-200k.

2. Buy 3-4 year old car in perfect shape for half the cost of new. Drive it for 10 years, get a couple years warranty out of the deal.

3. Buy new at the end of the year. Get 0% financing on a 7 year loan from the dealer. Pay only 5-800.00/mo. depending on what you bought, and enjoy a full warranty – some dealerships even hand out free oil changes for as long as you own the car.

hope i got the quoting right. the problem is that i already have one of the older versions in good shape. but i am starting to worry about safety issues. are those airbags going to work after 16 years of laying idle
? it is a big, skookum Passat but even at that i hear that the newer models are even tougher. it does apparently have air bags on the side doors which i hear is important. tempted to keep it. but… i think Garth is right about the leasing. that is if you invest, so that your money is working. another big point about leasing is that the days of the internal combustion engine may be limited. do i want to buy a car today when the landscape may be quite different in five or ten years. maybe not so much chang, who knows. but do you want to take a chance on that today? leasing eases all your worries. and you should make money on the money you would have used to buy that car. i really only need a car in the summer vacation, though, so maybe next step is to checkout rentals

#43 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 7:23 pm

#37 Caledondave on 02.04.20 at 6:59 pm

No worries. I still have 144 N95 masks from SARS days. All in plastic packaging. I wonder what I can sell them for?

All expired.

#44 Dogman01 on 02.04.20 at 7:28 pm

I spoke to a nurse friend of mine on effectiveness of masks, she indicated they are effective with Health Care workers as they change them frequently, she said at about 30 min mark they get moist and saturated and begin to lose efficacy. – I was wondering

#45 Blacksheep on 02.04.20 at 7:31 pm

“Learning independence, good. Being proud of it, even better. Not being subsumed by your parents, best.- Garth”
—————————–
If the parents had a lot less dough or it would put them out in any way, fine let the kid struggle.

But at 7 mill, the math / optics are almost obscene.

The parents would not even notice 400K less in net, yet would be a life changing gift for their only daughter at age 24 that would allow her to call you up to set up an $1000 month investment plan, vs paying interest to a bank.

How much would she accumulate by retirement?

I don’t know about others, but can only wish I was in a position to buy my only daughter, a home in cash. A healthy down payment is all I can pull off without jeopardizing my own retirement plans.

I still count myself lucky…

#46 Drinking on 02.04.20 at 7:34 pm

Hmm, that is one lucky pup,ha,ha, great video and she has a great sense of humor about it. Gotta love dawgs! Sorry Felix! :(

2020 is going to be a great test!

Awful fires in Aussie Land; yes it has happened before.
Coronavirus; not to be underestimated!

Huge locust invasion in Kenya; yes it has happened before. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7965835/The-worst-locust-invasion-70-years-set-ravage-east-Africa-cause-massive-devastation.html

Earthquakes, terrible storms; solar minimum, Telsa stocks are way up, stock market way up, taxes way up, municipal idiots have there heads up there arses taxing, taxing, taxing while enjoying; I kid you not an alcohol expense in which like T2’s Khan security expense paid by us (RCMP). 50 million given to a profitable 16 billion dollar credit card company, cannot make this up, look it up.
Paid by Calgarian’s; wink, wink, from CBC https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/joe-magliocca-expense-apology-1.5450801

Hey, at least we still have our health, hug your loved one’s, appreciate those that are the most important in your lives, whether pets, friends or family and for god sake make a buck just to give that middle finger to those that always rob it from you. :)

#47 Dogman01 on 02.04.20 at 7:35 pm

Jared Kushner on CNN regarding the Trump administrations approach to Trade.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1224046964645474305
For those of you in awe of the 1994 prescient predictions of James Goldsmith
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI
In the words of Ross Perot -The “sucking sound” of good jobs leaving the US.
The last three decades US Elites have been gleefully moving production overseas while retaining unfettered access to sell back into America; thereby destroying the societal benefits of capitalism for working people, from win-win to a race to the bottom. A western worker cannot compete with an infinite labour pool. US elites interests have divorced themselves from those of the general citizenry.
The average Americans can get a job now, Jobs – the miracle social program! Self-esteem, reduced divorce rate, reduce depression and mental health issues, displaces despair and drug addiction – a miracle universal good.
They see Trump is changing the trajectory. – They will vote for him, nothing else matters.

#48 Dogman01 on 02.04.20 at 7:41 pm

Interesting article on the Biden stuff.

“It wasn’t illegal for Hunter Biden to take that job. But Hunter Biden himself has admitted it was “poor judgment.” It’s reminiscent of nothing so much as the $675,000 Hillary Clinton took for giving speeches to Goldman Sachs: not illegal, but a kind of soft corruption that voters find loathsome.

“these are huge sums and represent a kind of DC back-scratching and influence-trading that voters dislike. Getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for doing basically no work is a rare gift, and the cost of accepting that gift or of letting a family member accept it is it can be used against you in a future election.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020-presidential-election/2019/10/16/20916760/joe-biden-hunter-biden-democratic-debate-trump-2020

#49 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 7:42 pm

“Lesson from the virus?”

They have longer proven history of survival than hu!mankind, let alone “the market”.

#50 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 02.04.20 at 7:55 pm

Didn’t we already send Ms. Meng back? The Trudeau regime sees homes a better retirement choice than a TSFA.

#51 Jager on 02.04.20 at 8:02 pm

China’s aspirations of empire will never fully arrive under the closed confines of Communism. China’s superlatives, as viewed by the West, are not a product of the primeval secretism and martial governance of the CCP but of the very people themselves, their unified culture and resultant (peaceful) society. Note: You may call them xenophobes but I never have and never will. Why? I cherish both the people and their culture. I want China to be China!

Lasting greatness however, will only truly blossom through the mantle of freedom. Freedom of expression and in governance. Only then will a lasting commercial power worthy of empire be achieved. A truly benevolent kingdom to assist in steering humanity bravely forward through the unknown future.

讓我第一個來告訴你好消息吧。

#52 Nike on a bike on 02.04.20 at 8:12 pm

#20 BC_Doc

How Nike still does it is beyond me. I worshiped them as a Gen X’r growing up. But at some point in the many last years, they clearly got over run with Millennials designing absolute garbage. I could swear they gave a prize for the most obtuse and silly design of footwear each week to their staff. They were only a little off from those five fingers. No figure for Oregoner’s – they are mostly dandelion eating mighties (that ironically – as lefties – shouldn’t be paying hundreds for footwear made in Wuhan and that is throw away in a few weeks when the sole wears through).

#53 Dog Breath on 02.04.20 at 8:27 pm

The dog in the GIF reminds me of our old lab. Great dog, unfortunately he developed the habit of sticking his nose up the behinds of unsuspecting women. We had a hard time explaining to him that this wasn’t the proper thing to do!

#54 Sydneysider on 02.04.20 at 8:32 pm

Coronavirus infections are rising with time (t) as t^1.8 (near parabolic growth) at the moment.*

At present rate, it will take 3 months to reach 1 M infections.

That’s quite a long time to implement protective measures, so likely the rate of infection will level off well before that, say 300 K in about 6 weeks.

*Fitting official data over last week with power law curve.

#55 crazyfox on 02.04.20 at 8:42 pm

There could be a good earnings party, its all Q4 virus free after all. U.S. factory production surprised, up 1.8% from the expected 1.2%. Tesla popped to the moon. The Chinese government is pumping liquidity into the markets and investors are inclined to believe that central bankers will save us. I mean, why not, it’s their turn.

As for 2020 Q1 earnings… well, I will once again leave it up to the money managers to decide. What I’m hearing though is some Chinese factories remain closed. Supply chains are already becoming disrupted in places like South Korea. More flights in and out of China are getting cancelled. Borders continue to tighten I mean, what could go wrong.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As evidenced from the map, above, there are now close to 24,000 infected, with close to 500 deaths. Just over 200 confirmed cases are outside of mainland China so that’s good, it seems manageable right? When one does the math, the fatality rate is just 2% so mainstream media says, why shake confidence unnecessarily, what’s the worry except for this thing called lag.

In spite of what people might think with the low fatality rate thingy, there is a lag with reported cases and the dead. Lets remind, 14 days ago there were 549 reported cases since the outbreak. Lets also remind that where the cases are older (province of Hubai, ground zero Wuhan), 16,678 confirmed; 479 deaths Mainland China for a 2.87% fatality rate. This is down from the 3.58% fatality rate a few days ago but the average overall cases are getting newer, not older as the size of infected continues to grow. Like I said, lag. 2 days ago when there were 400 dead in Wuhan, more than 700 were on life support. We are likely looking at a fatality rate somewhere between 5 to 7% and what will happen to the fatality rate if health care systems become overwhelmed or goes global into third world nations? We are, after all, talking about a Novel virus with the entire human population new to this virus. Well…

The hospital that was built in Wuhan for 1000 patients in 10 days opened today with it’s first 50 patients. There’s a 1600 patient hospital also being opened soon in Wuhan. It makes for a great time lapse video but will it be enough the way these numbers are growing?:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzU0tXKa2bI

With this rate of spread, the next highest 4 provinces in China besides Hubei are likely to produce 100,000 infected in the next couple 2 weeks if one is to consider these reported numbers as accurate with a similar rate of spread to the province of Hubei and lets remind, China won’t be able to quarantine all of it’s provinces so it could be a faster rate of spread. People are more aware and the streets are quiet but…

I can’t help but think we are looking at a slow burn black swan. The markets have an attention span of a 10 year old but over time, maybe not all that much time, this is going to become an increasingly hard thing to ignore.

#56 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 02.04.20 at 8:42 pm

“As the Dems drift left, with the irascible Sanders spouting socialism atop the shoulders of his clueless Millennial army, the more the current president looks normal. Now, who ever thought that would happen?” — GT

Millions of Americans voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 because he was the ONLY normal guy around with ANY common sense at all.

Everyone else was obviously suffering severely from crazy ideas, traitorous thoughts, chemical imbalances in the brain, demon possession, Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), etc.

#57 Deplorable Dude on 02.04.20 at 8:44 pm

Lol..what the Dems are calling ‘abuse of power’ (not even a crime), the Founders called ‘Separation of powers.’

Trump is apparently ‘abusing’ his powers by asking the Supreme Court to rule on the enforceability of the Dem subpoenas. Think about that….just the mere act of a President mounting a legal defence is considered an impeachable offence. Anyway…hint they are not enforceable as Pelosi never held a House vote to enable House Judicial enforcement authority via a formal enquiry, as she didn’t want vulnerable Dems on the record.

Meanwhile the Dem machine is busy screwing Bernie out of the nomination again.

And tomorrow Trump will be acquitted.

I’m running out of popcorn.

#58 BS on 02.04.20 at 8:50 pm

Trump’s approval rate just hit its highest level – even as his abuse of power allegations were proven in Congress

I guess you don’t understand the definition of proven. Proven is determined by the senate which it is all but certain to acquit in a bipartisan vote tomorrow. Clearly with new highs on Trumps approval voters agree.

At the same time Joe Biden is a distant fourth in Iowa. If he wasn’t unelectable with his gaffs and bumbling he is now unelectable with the impeachment hoax shining some light on his corruption. Biden is done.

Bernie is now the clear front runner. An unelectable communist is going to be the Democratic nominee.

Things couldn’t look better for Trump along with the republicans in the house and senate. The Democrats have made it easy for a trifecta in 2020. Sorry snowflakes!

#59 Felix on 02.04.20 at 8:57 pm

Just think, you canine idolaters: If a human male did what that dog just did, he’d be jailed for at least 2 years.

Despicable creature. Useless waste of planetary space.

#60 Hookshott on 02.04.20 at 9:01 pm

#22 Stephen on 02.04.20 at 5:24 pm
“ Balanced, diversified, predictable, boring, comatose, wake-me-when-retired portfolios”
The “wake-me-when-retired” phrase makes me wonder at what age a senior should begin to move away from the recommended 60/40 portfolio to something a little more conservative. Should a 70 year old (for example) maybe have a 50/50 split? Asking for a friend…

Death would be an ideal time. – Garth
……..
No need for a 70 year old to stay at 60/40 unless you really need the income. If you do not need to make a lot but would definitely like to preserve what you have, then you should definitely consider a different weighting.

Not unless you plan to die at 75. A seventy-year-old realistically has a 15-year time horizon and may well need the greatest income near the end. Do not invest emotionally. – Garth

#61 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 9:07 pm

I am just on the live feed of the state of the union address. I believe the election of 2020 will be decided in the next hour.

#62 meslippery on 02.04.20 at 9:13 pm

#28 IHCTD9 on 02.04.20 at 6:02 pm
1. Buy a 15 year old unicorn that took you months to find. It’s got under 150k on the clock, has an easy to fix problem, and is in mint shape. No one wants it, you buy it for 1500.00 and fix it yourself, then drive it for 1-200k.
——————————————
Yes…. I did #1 hell of a deal.
Shop and browse before you need a replacement and find great deals.

#63 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 9:42 pm

Well, the SOTU is not over yet, but Trump wins in in 2020. No need to debate that anymore. It was a campaign speech more so than anything, but he is good as that kind of thing.

#64 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 9:50 pm

Not unless you plan to die at 75. A seventy-year-old realistically has a 15-year time horizon and may well need the greatest income near the end. Do not invest emotionally. – Garth

You are encouraging people to live far to long. There is nothing about 90 besides “The Price Is Right”. Stab pencils in my eyes before that. Just because your doctor can keep you alive, doesn’t mean you should let him. All parties should be left before they get out of hand. Sometimes you don’t need another drink.

#65 IHCTD9 on 02.04.20 at 9:54 pm

#42 joe on 02.04.20 at 7:21 pm
——

Sounds to me (if you must get another car) like you should either lease or buy new. I have a bil who leases a vehicle for 650.00/mo, if he could get a 0% 7 year deal it would have cost him less (per month) to buy the thing (but would have to keep paying 2 more years over the lease). Leasing is not all that less of a monthly than buying with today’s crazy financing deals.

Really though, if you don’t even need a car except for vacation, you should just keep the old VW. Many of the dogs here probably have more time in a car with lap belts, and a steel dash than one with 52 airbags in it – and still made it through.

Hummer H2’s are getting cheap too, they win most of their accidents, so that’s an option too :D

#66 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 10:03 pm

Rush just got awarded a medal. Trump is going to win hands down.

#67 akashic record on 02.04.20 at 10:35 pm

Nancy Pelosi was really classy tonight :)

#68 Peter Kook on 02.04.20 at 10:49 pm

Zoophilia today

#69 zee on 02.04.20 at 10:55 pm

Hi

Nothing makes any sense. Last year, folks could not pass the stress test and 12 months later they can at higher prices and in some cases 80-100k higher than last year. Some things does not add up.

#70 Tony on 02.04.20 at 11:22 pm

Re: #4 Sail away on 02.04.20 at 3:38 pm

AMD and Nvidia were better than 10 baggers. I bought Nvidia around 20 bucks U.S. and AMD around 6 dollars U.S. We know the Chinese stock market will go up through February 7th (news made public days ago) but what happens after that?

#71 Long-Time Lurker on 02.05.20 at 12:05 am

>Interesting dot connections follow.

>Bio-warfare backfire 1, 2, 3, 4?

(Bio-warfare backfire 1)

China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan – and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could ‘escape’ the facility that’s become key in fighting the outbreak

-The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is the only lab in China designated for studying dangerous pathogens like SARS and Ebola

-Ahead of its January 2018 opening, biosafety experts and scientists from the US expressed concerns that a virus could escape the lab

-In 2004, a SARS virus ‘leaked’ from a lab in Beijing

-Experts say the coronavirus that’s infected more than 800 people mutated in animals and became capable of infecting humans at the Wuhan seafood market

-But a 2017 article warned of the unpredictability of lab animals that scientists at the Wuhan lab intended to inject with viruses

By NATALIE RAHHAL ACTING US HEALTH EDITOR
PUBLISHED: 17:08 EST, 23 January 2020 | UPDATED: 20:56 EST, 24 January 2020

Scientists warned in 2017 that a SARS-like virus could escape a lab set up that year in Wuhan, China, to study some of the most dangerous pathogens in the world.

Now, a SARS-like coronavirus has infected more than 800 there, spread to at least 10 other countries and killed 25 in Wuhan and nearby provinces.

China installed the first of a planned five to seven biolabs designed for maximum safety in Wuhan in 2017, for the purpose of studying the most high-risk pathogens, including the Ebola and the SARS viruses.

Tim Trevan, a Maryland biosafety consultant, told Nature that year, when the lab was on the cusp of opening, that he worried that China’s culture could make the institute unsafe because ‘structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important.’

In fact, the SARS virus had ‘escaped’ multiple times from a lab in Beijing, according to the Nature article.

The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is located about 20 miles away from the Huanan Seafood Market and some have wondered if the outbreak’s epicentre is coincidental, but the scientific community currently believes that the virus mutated through and jumped to people through animal-human contact at the market…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

#72 DON on 02.05.20 at 12:06 am

@#41 Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 7:14 pm

Would be a good strategy on China’s part. Makes one wonder. As you say China’s leader is not in the same position as Trump.

#73 Long-Time Lurker on 02.05.20 at 12:10 am

(Bio-warfare backfire 3)

-Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient is declared ‘disease-free’ in 48 hours using HIV and flu drugs – as Dettol is forced to warn there is ‘NO evidence spray kills virus’

-Medics tested drug mix on patient in ‘serious condition’ who turned disease-free
The antiviral drugs are normally used for HIV and influenza treatment

By ISABELLA NIKOLIC FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 06:41 EST, 2 February 2020 | UPDATED: 16:55 EST, 3 February 2020

Thailand has reportedly seen promising results after treating a coronavirus patient with a mix of two antiviral drugs which are usually used to treat HIV.

Medics tested the drug mix on a patient who was in a ‘serious condition’ with the disease and within 48 hours they were declared disease-free, reports Bloomberg.

The drugs, originally used for HIV and influenza treatment, were a success according to a medical briefing given by Dr Kriangsak Attipornwanich…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html

#74 Long-Time Lurker on 02.05.20 at 12:13 am

(Bio-warfare backfire 4)

Feds Seize Million Pounds of Smuggled Chinese Pork
by Jennifer Shike
07:24PM Mar 15, 2019

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stopped an attempt to smuggle one million pounds of pork from China to a New Jersey port on Friday, resulting in the biggest seizure of agricultural product in American history. This comes on the heels of African swine fever (ASF) raging through China and devastating the hog population in the world’s largest pork-producing country.

“This was highly orchestrated,” said Stephen Maloney, the Customs and Border Patrol’s acting port director for the Port of New York/Newark. He said this was a concerted effort to conceal product.

More than 100 CBP agricultural specialists and K-9 teams worked to uncover the prohibited food. The pork was smuggled in various different ways from ramen noodle bowls to Tide detergent containers, said deputy chief agricultural specialist Basil Liakakos.

In some cases, the packaging in the shipment matched the products on the manifest, authorities said, but the contents inside were prohibited pork. In other cases, the pork was simply packaged among the other products.

CBP teams are working hard to keep ASF, a highly transmissible, deadly virus of pigs, out of the U.S. ASF does not affect humans, but is rapidly spread to domestic pigs and wild boars. The ASF virus survives 150-180 days in fresh meat. In frozen meat, reports say the virus can live indefinitely…

https://www.agweb.com/article/feds-seize-million-pounds-of-smuggled-chinese-pork

#75 Long-Time Lurker on 02.05.20 at 12:15 am

>Another send attempt.

(Bio-warfare backfire 2)

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120
and Gag

Prashant Pradhan$1,2, Ashutosh Kumar Pandey$1, Akhilesh Mishra$1, Parul Gupta1, Praveen Kumar Tripathi1, Manoj Balakrishnan Menon1, James Gomes1, Perumal Vivekanandan*1 and Bishwajit Kundu*1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

#76 Post on 02.05.20 at 1:16 am

What conformation on that puppy.

#77 David Soul on 02.05.20 at 1:22 am

Wow, Trump’s State of the Union address was a knock out. What do we get, Mr Potato. Sad.

#78 Spectacle on 02.05.20 at 1:52 am

wallflower on 02.04.20 at 4:27 pm
More scotch. Less cerebellum.
What is your brand, Garth?
Think I owe you a bottle.
—————— we all do ———

It is Single Malt for Sir Turner…… And I would be in on sending a nice selection to Garth ! Let’s keep it a secret, any other takers?

#79 Spectacle on 02.05.20 at 2:01 am

Nonplused on 02.04.20 at 9:50 pm
Not unless you plan to die at 75. A seventy-year-old realistically has a 15-year time horizon and may well need the greatest income near the end. Do not invest emotionally. – Garth

You are encouraging people to live far to long. There is nothing about 90 besides “The Price Is Right”. Stab pencils in my eyes before that. Just because your doctor can keep you alive, doesn’t mean you should let him. All parties should be left before they get out of hand. Sometimes you don’t need another drink.
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::————-::::::::::::::::::::::::
Life is like a party. I’m lucky to have some great genetics, many 99 year olds and a few 104year olds. Mostly going question in their sleep, unlike the other people in their car…..

Kept their mind and spirits ( enthusiasm for life) until they went home for good. It’s an art. There are other people I knew who were aged In their late 40s. Don’t smoke or vape.

#80 Steven Rowlandson on 02.05.20 at 4:17 am

I doubt the virus will seriously thin the herd of house horny homo sapiens. An airborne antibiotic resistant variant of the plague might.

#81 Howard on 02.05.20 at 6:04 am

If the central banks have investors’ banks, doesn’t it follow that they also have homeowners’ backs? There are more of the latter than the former. To the moon? Looks like GTA prices will set records this spring. Again.

#82 Sail Away on 02.05.20 at 7:08 am

#70 Tony on 02.04.20 at 11:22 pm
Re: #4 Sail away on 02.04.20 at 3:38 pm

AMD and Nvidia were better than 10 baggers. I bought Nvidia around 20 bucks U.S. and AMD around 6 dollars U.S. We know the Chinese stock market will go up through February 7th (news made public days ago) but what happens after that?

————————-

Nice

#83 Channel Surfer on 02.05.20 at 7:15 am

Both, are you going to feel stupid once climate reality takes hold. You’ll realize what a big scam it’s all been.

https://in.mashable.com/science/11043/earth-is-about-to-enter-a-30-year-mini-ice-age-as-a-solar-minimum-grips-the-planet

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.20 at 7:44 am

@#51 Jager
“A truly benevolent kingdom to assist in steering humanity bravely forward through the unknown future.”
++++

Pffft, apparently delusional fantasies exist outside JK Rowlings world of Harry Potter.

My take?
The “benevolent kingdom” wont be happy until …
They have cut down the last tree, bulldozed the last blade of grass, poached the last rhino for its horn…… the environment be damned.
Because even with yoke of Communism…..
There is a profit to be made.

Pave paradise and put up a pay parking lot.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.20 at 7:52 am

@#59 Felix
“If a human male did what that dog just did, he’d be jailed for at least 2 years.”
+++++

or get a phone number?

#86 Cheers! on 02.05.20 at 8:02 am

#78 Spectacle on 02.05.20 at 1:52 am
wallflower on 02.04.20 at 4:27 pm
More scotch. Less cerebellum.
What is your brand, Garth?
Think I owe you a bottle.
—————— we all do ———

It is Single Malt for Sir Turner…… And I would be in on sending a nice selection to Garth ! Let’s keep it a secret, any other takers?

_________

Good luck with that! Cheers Garth.

#87 Tater on 02.05.20 at 8:15 am

Only about 34mm shares of Tesla need to trade today for something very interesting to happen.

#88 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 8:26 am

50-100K infected
10k+ deaths

growing uncontrollably.

hence the lockdown and extreme measures

china govt. would not lie, would they?

market seems to be looking backward right now, instead of forward to unprecedented production cuts which are not far off.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.20 at 8:29 am

@#77 David Soul
“Trump’s State of the Union address was a knock out. ”
++++
Not if you’re a Democrat named Pelosi.

On a more important note…..

How’s Starsky doing?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0072567/

#90 David Hawke on 02.05.20 at 8:35 am

“I think it’s time we gave Meng back, don’t you?”

Been sayin’ that ever since her arrest at the behest of the Y’all’s Demented Dufus king donnie, EH!

#91 Howard on 02.05.20 at 8:37 am

I just realized something.

Look at this headline on investing.com : “Futures jump on reports of coronavirus treatment breakthroughs”

Wall Street is going to play this EXACTLY like the trade talks. Every few days, a rumour of a new vaccine or treatment to corona will be trotted out and money managers will use it as an excuse to goose the market.

Sheer genius.

#92 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 8:49 am

and… tsla gets killed today. down 25%.

#93 Bezengy on 02.05.20 at 8:50 am

SOTU Could anything be more disastrous to the lefties than an out of control “nutjob” who has single handedly knocked it out of the park? I wonder how many of our best and brightest are lining up at the border today? Let’s face it, every overachiever wants to be on the winning team.

#94 G on 02.05.20 at 9:10 am

re: You may be SOL on buying a N95 face mask in Vancouver, and the Toronto subway’s packed with wearers.

Don’t panic yet. But stay vigilant this isn’t over yet.
Wash your hand and stop touching your face!
Do not under estimate this virus, it’s not just the Flu!

Coronavirus and why not to wear your masks by Dr. Paul Cottrell 16 min (see link by KenDBerryMD below)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lypl_EhMLI8&t=2s

Coronavirus and washing hands by Dr. Paul Cottrell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzqNNc9xbRw

His latest post since he started looking at the virus, some including genome analyses from a week ago, and possible treatment to try and help save lives.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZyk2NYx6wGnpoJ7ApTxWKg

Coronavirus Update: 5 Facts & Action Steps (2019-nCoV) KenDBerryMD 15min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUrvVkVPXHM&t=136s

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 10: New Studies, Transmission, Spread from Wuhan, Prevention (2019-nCoV) 13min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPwfiQgGsFo

Some school districts in the USA have close schools for some reason. Is that a normal thing to do for just the flu? Personally sounds like a good idea to me give the evidence this virus genome as engineered and the 14 days you can spread it with out symptoms and virus can be pick up off surfaces up to 5 day later. Also seems that some people that seemed to recover are still shedding virus.

Saw some picture of dense smog/smoke over Chinese city some think it is from the large number of bodies being burnt, and the number is not being reported to the world.

Stay safe.

#95 Dharma Bum on 02.05.20 at 9:29 am

I am fully aware that I have not led enough of a righteous life to end my karma.

Oh well.

If I am lucky, hopefully I’ll at least be reborn as that GIF dog.

kar·ma
/ˈkärmə/

noun

(in Hinduism and Buddhism) the sum of a person’s actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences.

#96 Shawn Allen on 02.05.20 at 9:40 am

The State of Four More Years

I am no fan of Trump especially as a person.

But his speech was a victory lap and a tour-de-force.

I have dozed through a number of State of the Union speeches. This one had my attention all the way through.

And Nancy and the Democrats totally embarrassed themselves.

#97 Not So New guy on 02.05.20 at 10:31 am

I read this on the Zerhedge site. This is their manifesto. It is something Facebook and much of the mainstream media cannot grasp for some reason since they are always trying to out the speaker. Publicizing names probably limits a lot of famous people from speaking the truth, especially about their chosen profession

This, I think, is also why Garth’s comment section is so lively:

our method: pseudonymous speech…

anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. it thus exemplifies the purpose behind the bill of rights, and of the first amendment in particular: to protect unpopular individuals from retaliation– and their ideas from suppression– at the hand of an intolerant society.

…responsibly used.

the right to remain anonymous may be abused when it shields fraudulent conduct. but political speech by its nature will sometimes have unpalatable consequences, and, in general, our society accords greater weight to the value of free speech than to the dangers of its misuse.

– mcintyre v. ohio elections commission 514 u.s. 334 (1995) justice stevens writing for the majority

though often maligned (typically by those frustrated by an inability to engage in ad hominem attacks) anonymous speech has a long and storied history in the united states. used by the likes of mark twain (aka samuel langhorne clemens) to criticize common ignorance, and perhaps most famously by alexander hamilton, james madison and john jay (aka publius) to write the federalist papers, we think ourselves in good company in using one or another nom de plume. particularly in light of an emerging trend against vocalizing public dissent in the united states, we believe in the critical importance of anonymity and its role in dissident speech. like the economist magazine, we also believe that keeping authorship anonymous moves the focus of discussion to the content of speech and away from the speaker- as it should be. we believe not only that you should be comfortable with anonymous speech in such an environment, but that you should be suspicious of any speech that isn’t.

Found here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/about

#98 crazyfox on 02.05.20 at 10:34 am

#54 Sydneysider on 02.04.20 at 8:32 pm

14 days ago, (Jan 22nd) there were 639 reported cases in the world, mostly all in mainland China and mostly from the province of Hubei. There are four Chinese provinces with higher numbers than that now. Guangdong (895), Zhejiang (895), Henan (764), and Hunan (661) have higher numbers than mainland China 2 weeks ago. We can expect 80,000 new cases from these four provinces 2 weeks from now if we use Hubei as a denominator for rate of spread.

There are 8 more provinces with 2400+ cases… we can look toward 50,000 more 2 weeks from now from them. Add another 30,000 from Hubei and we are at 160,000 infected 2 weeks from now. If these numbers merely doubled every 2 weeks (doubling rate is currently less than 5 days) for the following 6 weeks thereafter, 8 weeks from now we are at 1.3 million by April. This doesn’t count infected throughout the rest of the provinces of China or the world.

The paranoia, the information sharing, prevent and precautions, quarantines, closed borders and cancelled flights, they will all help to slow things down but that’s all it will do. We are looking at, best guess, somewhere between 1 to 2 million infected by the first week of April.

Did I mention the fatality rate? There’s a lag. As more cases make the aggregate younger, the death rate goes down. As the globe warms up and hibernates flu season however and the aggregate of infected cases grow older and the fatality rate will go up. As of Monday, the city of Wuhan had a fatality rate of 4.9% with 313 deaths, giving the province of Hubei a mortality rate of 3.1%. These numbers are higher because their aggregates are older cases:

https://www.india.com/news/world/china-predicts-fall-in-mortality-rate-as-coronavirus-death-toll-hits-425-3932325/

The story above is optimistic that the fatality rate will go down as new hospitals go online and the city is under quarantine. Perhaps they are right. Certainly, putting 60 million people under quarantine will have slowed down the spread of Corona without question and hospitals will help. How will the rest of China’s response and hospitals handle Corona if/when the infected jumps to the millions? (again, look to 1 to 2 million by the first week of April) As of Monday the mortality rate was 4.9% and 171,000 are under medical observation in Wuhan.

#99 G on 02.05.20 at 10:43 am

from RT:
China tests Russian anti-viral drug which might treat coronavirus as Moscow warns of possible ‘mass outbreak’
“Russia’s Deputy Health Minister Sergei Kraevoi confirmed the news on Tuesday. He also revealed that the Chinese still haven’t shared samples required for a vaccine with foreign researchers, adding that without these it’s impossible to start looking for a remedy.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/480037-china-tests-russian-drug-coronavirus/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Email

#100 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:46 am

What’s all this frantic obsession with TSLA? Over the last few days it’s down significantly. By contrast, earlier this week I scooped up some DIRT CHEAP XEG, yield 2.9% and XLE-NY, yield 4.1% and they’re both up from their lows. If you are going to buy low and sell high, don’t you first have to buy low? Correct me if I’m wrong, but as I get out and around I see a lot more gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles around than electric Tesla cars.

I haven’t been wearing any N95 face masks. I’m far more likely to die from getting hit by falling space junk than from corona virus.

#101 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:54 am

Channel Surfer, post #83:
You’re ignorance is showing. You’d be best to take advice from Mark Twain who said that you’re better to keep quiet and have everyone think you’re an idiot rather than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. The sun goes through a cycle of about 11 years, not 200. Even if it does go through a longer minimum, the amount of greenhouse gases we’ve put in the atmosphere will more than compensate for it. World getting colder? Just ask those fire fighters in Australia.

#102 Ronaldo on 02.05.20 at 11:24 am

Good article by Paul Sullivan re: Vancouver real estate.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/paul-sullivan-making-existing-homeowners-poorer-is-hardly-an-affordability-strategy?fbclid=IwAR3rcaB3__yWclcq_VIEo4zMlEoJDK7oDGsvp-uh9GphmSXurDoKeq62O9s

#103 Capt. Serious on 02.05.20 at 11:31 am

Man that TSLA short squeeze yesterday was something spectacular.

#104 Early FI Wannabe on 02.05.20 at 11:38 am

Comment on your post from Dr. Garth a few days ago:

The 6% rate is a conservative estimate of growth based on a balanced and diversified, routinely-rebalanced portfolio performance over decades. The MM number is a withdrawal rate based on a wimpy, static investment profile and the premise people like to live on day-old bread, wood heat and munch on things that appear in the garden. – Garth

What would you say is an appropriate withdrawal rate?

Is it 5% as you suggested in the post ($100/$2M)?

Thanks for everything you do!

Just live on the growth. Stop overthinking it. – Garth

#105 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 11:43 am

I don’t normally buy leveraged inverse etf’s, but when I do, I prefer 2x sp500 down.

first time ever, wish me luck!

#106 Rossi46 on 02.05.20 at 12:06 pm

I have never seen anyone question the practice by real estate agents of shamelessly jacking up house prices.

How much of the house price problem is attributable to real estate agents?

Should they be allowed to randomly jack -up house prices?

Just wondering?

#107 Penny Henny on 02.05.20 at 12:14 pm

#100 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:46 am
What’s all this frantic obsession with TSLA? Over the last few days it’s down significantly.

//////////////////

Huh? “Over the last few days it’s down significantly”.
TSLA??

I’m confused because when you posted this comment it is trading at about the same price it was two days ago.
I’ve got no horse in this race but try to stick with the facts Doug.

#108 Penny Henny on 02.05.20 at 12:20 pm

#105 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 11:43 am
I don’t normally buy leveraged inverse etf’s, but when I do, I prefer 2x sp500 down.

first time ever, wish me luck!
///////////////

Good luck with that. I’m also sitting on a extra 8% cash waiting for an entry. Don’t have the balls to do what you are doing though.

#109 Tater on 02.05.20 at 12:34 pm

#105 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 11:43 am
I don’t normally buy leveraged inverse etf’s, but when I do, I prefer 2x sp500 down.

first time ever, wish me luck!
——————————————

Someone’s going to learn a lesson about path dependency

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.05.20 at 12:35 pm

#95 Dharma Bum on 02.05.20 at 9:29 am
I am fully aware that I have not led enough of a righteous life to end my karma.

Oh well.

If I am lucky, hopefully I’ll at least be reborn as that GIF dog.

kar·ma
/ˈkärmə/

noun

(in Hinduism and Buddhism) the sum of a person’s actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences.
————–
You did not know what “karma” meant!
That explains a lot

#111 George on 02.05.20 at 12:36 pm

BANNED

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.05.20 at 12:38 pm

Dhama Bum,
There’s also “instant karma” which could hit you anytime.
So, be nice.

#113 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 12:42 pm

#105 bdwy on 02.05.20 at 11:43 am

I don’t normally buy leveraged inverse etf’s, but when I do, I prefer 2x sp500 down.
first time ever, wish me luck!

———————-

What? Just as the US markets gain power with impeachment acquittal and powerful State of the Union address?

I won’t wish you luck since that would be averse to my interests.

What I will do is take a position in 3x leveraged SP500 SPXL and we can compare notes next week.

#114 G on 02.05.20 at 12:49 pm

Alex Jones 02/04/20 – UN Knows Coronavirus a Bioweapon, Says Creator of Bioweapons Act
Mike Adam’s started talking about it @14:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUPCFKbvcno

I am praying this is fake, but…

#115 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 12:55 pm

#101 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:54 am

World getting colder? Just ask those fire fighters in Australia.

—————————-

Nothing whatsoever happened outside of the normal range of Australian wildfires. This is a landscape that burns every year, like many others.

Did you know BC’s West Coast just had a slightly rainier January than it sometimes does?

Panic not, Padawan.

#116 oh bouy on 02.05.20 at 12:59 pm

@#114 G on 02.05.20 at 12:49 pm
Alex Jones 02/04/20 – UN Knows Coronavirus a Bioweapon, Says Creator of Bioweapons Act
Mike Adam’s started talking about it @14:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUPCFKbvcno

I am praying this is fake, but…

___________________________

alex jones? really?

#117 oh bouy on 02.05.20 at 1:08 pm

@#45 Blacksheep on 02.04.20 at 7:31 pm
“Learning independence, good. Being proud of it, even better. Not being subsumed by your parents, best.- Garth”
—————————–
If the parents had a lot less dough or it would put them out in any way, fine let the kid struggle.

But at 7 mill, the math / optics are almost obscene.

The parents would not even notice 400K less in net, yet would be a life changing gift for their only daughter at age 24 that would allow her to call you up to set up an $1000 month investment plan, vs paying interest to a bank.

How much would she accumulate by retirement?

I don’t know about others, but can only wish I was in a position to buy my only daughter, a home in cash. A healthy down payment is all I can pull off without jeopardizing my own retirement plans.

I still count myself lucky…
_____________________

exactly. you’d have to be the worlds biggest curmudgeon to not help your kids out when in this kind of position.

#118 BobC on 02.05.20 at 1:41 pm

They need more taxes. That will Work.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/24-australians-arrested-deliberately-setting-fires-season/story?id=68108272

#119 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 1:43 pm

Re: markets heights and black swans

There have been comments recently about a possible Black Swan event, which is a contradiction in terms, because Black Swans are unpredictable and unforeseen. That’s their definition.

They do happen with unpredictable regularity, though.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb made a name for himself betting on Black Swan financial catastrophes by buying far out of the money puts and steadily losing money, with the hope of cashing in massively during a crash. This did happen and he cashed in massively. From his description, the steadily losing money part was very stressful for very long. Maybe that’s why he’s bald.

It would be hard to buy something that will predictably lose money, while hoping for a totally unforeseen catastrophe to make it a jackpot.

Food for thought…

#120 G on 02.05.20 at 1:47 pm

Hi #116 oh bouy, Yes I was trying to not post link to him because as you say…
Other post last few days are to DR MD’s info.
Knowledge is power, and I want to help save as many people as possible, including you of course. So just take it or leave it as you wise. Be safe. There are only a few ICU’s. Medical PPE is not being exported from China for obvious reasons. It will not take much to push across the line of being really bad near! Praying it will not, but…

#121 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 1:47 pm

@#45 Blacksheep on 02.04.20 at 7:31 pm

The parents would not even notice 400K less in net, yet would be a life changing gift for their only daughter at age 24

“Learning independence, good. Being proud of it, even better. Not being subsumed by your parents, best.- Garth”
_____________________
#117 oh bouy on 02.05.20 at 1:08 pm

exactly. you’d have to be the worlds biggest curmudgeon to not help your kids out when in this kind of position.

——————————-

Hey, did I just hear my name?

#122 G on 02.05.20 at 1:56 pm

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 11: Antiviral Drugs, Treatment Trials for nCoV (Remdesivir, Chloroquine)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfGpdFNHoqQ

#123 NoName on 02.05.20 at 2:37 pm

#119 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 1:43 pm

Funny you mention NNT and black swan, there it was in a book on page 40 something, definitely between 40-and 60.

Maybe I misunderstood book but it’s all about fat tails???

#124 Phylis on 02.05.20 at 3:00 pm

#87 Tater on 02.05.20 at 8:15 am Ok i’ll bite. What happened that was interesting?

#125 Phylis on 02.05.20 at 3:05 pm

Nancy should have stuck with red. It would have made her a-lot less sausagey and better reflected her mood.

Cheap. Unlike Trump, she is not obese. – Garth

#126 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 3:08 pm

#123 NoName on 02.05.20 at 2:37 pm
#119 Sail away on 02.05.20 at 1:43 pm

Funny you mention NNT and black swan, there it was in a book on page 40 something, definitely between 40-and 60.
Maybe I misunderstood book but it’s all about fat tails???

——————

Mostly, yes, hugely outsized risk or reward for events.

#127 jess on 02.05.20 at 3:38 pm

“Socialism of the Microbe” emerged soon into the Germ Theory era. (The Germ Theory, developed in the late 19th century, states that epidemics are caused by microbes and that their transmission can be contained)This was the idea that we must work to prevent and treat infections in others, lest others’ infections become our own (Edson 1895). One consequence was organized labor’s efforts to fight tuberculosis at the turn of the 20th century (Tomes 1998, Hoffman 2003). Public health workers realized that those most likely to become infected received low wages and lived in crowded tenements with insufficient food. With the aim of bolstering the safety of everyone, both rich and poor, from TB, the Progressive Era brought economic reforms, including minimum wage legislation and prohibitions against child labor. These reforms are credited with halving the rate of mortality from TB in New York City in the first two decades of the 20th century, all before effective drug therapy (Hermans et al. 2015). Reforms through the New Deal further helped reduce abject poverty, as well as tuberculosis.”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/25103596?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

http://www.wesleyanarcadia.com/spring-2019/how-we-can-all-share-the-fight-against-infectious-disease

#128 Channel Surfer on 02.05.20 at 9:58 pm

#115 Sail

You can’t convince the fanatics with facts. The fact that climate navel fuzz has hypnotized some many is the real quandary. Frankly, it’s a historic opportunity to collect energy investments that pay dividends while you wait for the solar fact to manifest. The ice age will also be called “climate change” .

#129 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:43 pm

@Penny Henny’ post #107
On Feb. 4 TSLA was trading at above $900 per share and actually peaked at $962.86, and closed today, Feb. 5, at $734.70 per share. I wouldn’t call that drop insignificant. YOU should try something you’ve never done before and stick with the facts. I learned to read and do basic arithmetic back in Grade 1, an experience you appear to have been deprived of.

#130 Doug in London on 02.05.20 at 10:55 pm

@Sail away, post #115:
Nothing whatsoever happened outside of the normal range of Australian wildfires? Yes, fires do occur there every year, but not on the scale we’ve seen this year. It’s consistent with the idea that there will be more extreme weather events going forward, just as the climatologists predicted.

BC’s West Coast just had a slightly rainier January than it sometimes does? The winter here in Southwestern Ontario has been unusually mild this year. Some variation from year to year is normal, but as I said before expect more and greater extremes going forward.

#131 palletshub on 02.06.20 at 4:03 am

Nice

#132 Sail away on 02.06.20 at 11:45 am

#128 Channel Surfer on 02.05.20 at 9:58 pm
#115 Sail

You can’t convince the fanatics with facts. The fact that climate navel fuzz has hypnotized some many is the real quandary.

————————–

To be fair, there are fanatics on both sides. If the data proves out the point, great; if the data doesn’t prove out the point, also great.

Logic and flexibility should rule the day.

Becoming positional, or worse, argumentatively positional, is a fatal flaw.