The contagion

Mr. Market is having second thoughts about the virus thing. Flights to China now cancelled. More US cases. Fifty million under quarantine. The threat’s not that thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) will perish, but the world’s second-biggest economy will take a kick. GDP could tumble from 6% to 4.5% this quarter. That’s a big deal.

That has equity markets wavering after hitting record highs with more money flowing into safe stuff. Bonds. Always a refuge in times of uncertainty, even when they pay peanuts. This is one good reason why every prudent investor should have about 40% of their overall portfolio in fixed income, including government, corporate and provincial bond ETFs. Not only do they provide shelter in a storm, they can be profitable. One nice bond fund we like plumped 10% last year, for example.

When money moves into bonds from stocks, demand increases and prices rise. So bonds become more valuable. As that happens they pay less. Yields fall as capital values jump. (A bond always pays you 100 cents on each dollar of face value when it eventually matures. But along the way the price fluctuates. That can be caused by a change in rates, by demand or risk. A bond that’s worth more in the market sells at a premium to its face value, so it pays less. Bonds selling at a discount have a higher yield, typically because rates are rising. Clear as mud, right?)

Since the virus infected the media, bond demand has risen, yields plopped, and it looks like this will translate into lower mortgage costs. The yield on five-year Government of Canada debt has dropped over the last two weeks, and is weakening again. If this continues (seems likely at the moment) five-year mortgages could drop widely to 2.5% in February – just in time for the Spring rutting season.

This is cheap, cheap, cheap. Recall that the inflation rate is 2.2%, so locking in to a loan for half a decade at 2.5% is a gift. The cost of money will not stay at these levels, and it pretty much eliminates the logic in paying down such a mortgage. Most people will be far better off throwing their extra monthly cash flow into their TFSAs, in nice growthy equity-based ETFs, where they can enjoy a higher long-term pop.

As for morbidity and mortality, well, Mr. Market cares more about corporate earnings, US economic growth and Trump. They will prevail. Just be glad you’re not a prisoner on a damn cruise

Now, speaking of mortgages, remember that Trudeau mandate to Chateau Bill to make the stress test “more dynamic”?

Some Lib MPs are getting antsy, speaking out in favour of gutting the thing. Now we have word the bank cop – OSFI – may be considering exactly that. What an uncanny coincidence!

The current stress test for buyers who don’t need mortgage insurance (at least 20% down) is the rate the bank offers +2%, or the posted benchmark rate (now 5.19%) – whichever is greater. Given you can get a fiver now for under 3%, this becomes a high hurdle – one that will be even steeper if the virus discount takes hold in the bond market.

OSFI gets this (the real estate industry has been squawking in protest for months) and a recent speech by the No.2 guy there has opened the door to change. Seems the bank regulator will allow the test to be based on the contract price plus two per cent, and ditch the benchmark hurdle. The result? A decrease by about a third of a point – which increases the purchasing power of buyers. By the way, this is not an unreasonable position, given that the spread between the benchmark rate and on-the-street mortgage pricing has been gapping a lot lately. But you know the likely result, of course. A hormonal spring.

Now, what else can we expect?

Ah yes, the political diddling. It’s contagious.

As you know, governments have played a key role in helping make residential real estate unaffordable. The last election campaign was shameless, as all parties scrambled to woe Mills with housing bait. The Libs enhanced their silly shared-equity mortgage plan, raised the RRSP buyers plan limit and showered owners/buyers with new credits and green money. The Cons essentially matched the gifts and vowed to whack the stress test. The Dippers and Greens said, well, who cares?

While OSFI – not Morneau – is technically in charge of this thing, the fact Trudeau gave him the mandate for change shows what’s coming. The benchmark hurdle of 5.19% will not be around much longer, along with changes again seducing our glorious youth to become pickled, immobilized, paralyzed and hollowed-out by unrepayable mortgage debt. Just like they want.

Looking for something to worry about? It’s not a virus.

 

134 comments ↓

#1 G on 01.30.20 at 3:50 pm

FYI be safe.
Coronavirus Taiwanese News (English) by Dr. Paul Cottrell 54min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tf8yMBEcTE

#2 Captain Uppa on 01.30.20 at 3:55 pm

It’s quite amusing to me to see the RE doomers at work pulling their hair out. Some are giving up, but a brave few are absolutely convinced the end is nigh.

*puts mask back on*

#3 Paddy on 01.30.20 at 4:06 pm

My mortgage is up for early renewal…yesterday there was a 3 year/2.85% closed….signed on today and it was lowered to 2.61%….will it drop to 2.5%? Lower? Shall I wait? I have 6 months to do so.

Was speaking to my sister in-law last night who lives in Guelph, she bought a condo about 4 years ago for 220k…the same condo, 1 floor up, recently sold for around 400k….average salary in Guelph is 50k….good luck folks

#4 T on 01.30.20 at 4:09 pm

During a rather long meeting with a downtown Toronto bank manager today I was surrounded by many discussing their immediate financial needs and wants.

Several were of older age looking to pay off credit card debt by cashing in their RRSPs. One person in particular was upset their RRSP account hasn’t grown over the past few years and questioning whether the mutual funds the bank has him are not performing. The bank rep let him know it’s the best products the have available. From what I gather from the conversation, his RRSP has grown less than 1% over the years.

Many others were younger looking for mortgages and trying to squeak out every last dollar they could possibly qualify for and the similarities in their conversations were astonishing. The bank rep would ask how much they are looking to qualify for and the response was always ‘I want as much as I possibly can’. One person was quite upset he didn’t qualify for a $750,000 mortgage with a salary of less than $100,000 and outstanding student debt.

Anecdotal, but a boots on the ground report. Take it for what it is. I take it as a sign of the times; those in debt are hurting, those without debt want it like their lives depend on in.

God help everyone dealing with more important and potentially life threatening challenges, like the latest outbreak. No one should take this lightly. It’s a global health emergency and this is not fake news. Maintain a high level of hygiene, stay vigilant.

Crazy times.

#5 Electrified fooling machine on 01.30.20 at 4:11 pm

Them Mils are smarter than we think. Even on the foolingist days of our lives.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/nearly-1-in-4-millennials-report-having-100000-or-more-in-savings.html

#6 So much for that.. on 01.30.20 at 4:20 pm

Coronavirus scare aboard Italian cruise ship subsides as Chinese passengers test negative

The negative results meant that about 1,100 of the passengers who were due to leave the ship at Civitavecchia have now been authorized to go ashore.

#7 Yukon Elvis on 01.30.20 at 4:39 pm

While OSFI – not Morneau – is technically in charge of this thing, the fact Trudeau gave him the mandate for change shows what’s coming. The benchmark hurdle of 5.19% will not be around much longer
……………………….

Just like I predicted here years ago. Gone with the stroke of a pen. And you laughed. And scoffed. Sneered even.

You have that effect on people. – Garth

#8 Victoria on 01.30.20 at 5:04 pm

People in Victoria keep saying property will go up.

50 percent of Canadians are $200 away from insolvency.
Average family income in Victoria $80,000
Average house price in Victoria 2018 $600,000
1/3 of Canadians are retiring without any savings
There are only 370,000 1 per centers in Canada

Is there something I am missing?

#9 GBiddy on 01.30.20 at 5:16 pm

#8 Victoria on 01.30.20 at 5:04 pm
Is there something I am missing?

Yes.

Local incomes have nothing to do with the prices of RE in Hicktoria. You think locals earning local wages are buying all the houses in Cocklands, Scarefield, Gloat Bay etc.

They are not.

Buyers in Vic (sorry, Hick) are largely Canadian migrants. They either sold in Van and came here, or did the same and came from back east. The common thread is equity mobility: they bring that equity with them, along with very nice pensions and investments.

Average incomes have nothing to do with who is buying in Victoria. They have everything to do with who is buying in Puuke, Skankford, Holewood etc.

#10 Attrition on 01.30.20 at 5:17 pm

#8 Victoria on 01.30.20 at 5:04 pm
Is there something I am missing?

Yes.

Local incomes have nothing to do with the prices of RE in Hicktoria. You think locals earning local wages are buying all the houses in Cocklands, Scarefield, Gloat Bay etc.

They are not.

Buyers in Vic (sorry, Hick) are largely Canadian migrants. They either sold in Van and came here, or did the same and came from back east. The common thread is equity mobility: they bring that equity with them, along with very nice pensions and investments.

Average incomes have nothing to do with who is buying in Victoria. They have everything to do with who is buying in Puuke, Skankford, Holewood etc.

#11 Brett in Calgary on 01.30.20 at 5:19 pm

#8 Victoria on 01.30.20 at 5:04 pm
————————
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Or in our case in Canada… longer than you can wait for housing to collapse. I am waiting for the same thing, but that is the last thing most Canadians want to happen, including the OSFI.

#12 jess on 01.30.20 at 5:21 pm

subsidizing the slum lords and this person has others
Connecticut Attorney General William Tong announced Wednesday that his office opened an investigation into the landlord, Emmanuel Ku, “for failure to provide decent safe and sanitary housing” while he was receiving federal funding to subsidize the apartments.
A Landlord’s Rotting, Moldy, Rat-Infested Apartments Were So Bad That Prosecutors Are Now Investigating Him

“He made a ton of money while failing to hold up his end of the bargain,” prosecutors said of the former owner of the government-subsidized apartments.
Picture of Lam Thuy Vo Lam Thuy Vo BuzzFeed News Reporter

Posted on January 30, 2020, at 3:13 p.m. ET

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/landlord-tenant-law-mold-rat-infested-apartments?bfsource=bbf_enus

#13 Stan Brooks on 01.30.20 at 5:27 pm

As the bonds are such a great deal with ‘return’ of 1. 4-1.5 % (on 10 years bond!) while official inflation is over 2 % and unofficial north of 6-8 %, I can understand BoC jumping on the ‘deal’.

Remember people, with ‘demand’ you can justify any price, including 0.00001 % interest on bonds and 1 trillion dollar average house in Toronto. Income does not matter, ‘demand’ is all that matters.

Cheers,

#14 Smoker and Drinker on 01.30.20 at 5:37 pm

#7 Yukon Elvis

Yes you did and you were right!
But hey, let us not worry about a little virus as Garth stated but sure profits; make those bucks!

As a Gen-X guy, I say “go mills go”!

#15 Diversified in Oakville on 01.30.20 at 5:40 pm

Can’t wait for the mils to open their wallets for housing in the burbs.
My house goes on the market tomorrow.

#16 Felix on 01.30.20 at 5:40 pm

That video is a perfect demonstration of the threat posed by disease-ridden, disgusting canines to humans.

Deadly, dumb animals.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/death-from-a-dog-lick-veterinarian-explains-rare-infection-triggered-by-pets-saliva

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/12/zoonotic-bacterial-disease-dog-transmitted-humans/1183830001/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5319273/

But it’s widely accepted cats plot to kill you while sleeping. – Garth

#17 joblo on 01.30.20 at 5:56 pm

“Now, speaking of mortgages, remember that Trudeau mandate to Chateau Bill to make the stress test “more dynamic”?

Ya but T2 being one of the “clueless”, who’s really in charge and tells Trudeau what to mandate ( or peopledate)?

#18 Treasure Island CEO - $132,049,435.88 Offshore on 01.30.20 at 5:56 pm

SARS 1.0 is nothing compared to SARS 2.0.

Airlines and tourism is going to get hammered.

Also, the credit unions all over Canada have never had the stress tests, so for a 50 basis point premium on low rates around the 3.5% mark, avoiding it is easy if you really want to load up on debt; however, if the gut the stress test it will be nice to deal with a bank that will get bailed out in any downturn unlike the credit unions that will simply disappear.

Where you have your mortgage does matter when your financial institution gets downgraded to junk without the possibility of a government bailout. So, dealing with a big six bank is always optimal as you know the big banks in Canada will always be backed by the gov, to big to fail.

Let’s just remember, nobody is going to be interested in buying or borrowing anything anything if China rolls over, recession takes hold, and people are losing their jobs.

Nothing sparks supply surplus like job loss.

#19 Smoker and Drinker on 01.30.20 at 5:56 pm

#15 Felix

I guess when your disgusting feline friend is sleeping on your head at night transferring whatever critters onto your scalp would be considered “hygienic”!

As Garth mentioned; all they really want to do is to eat you just like any other large feline! :)

Now, go give that lioness a pat on the head and see what happens; burp!

#20 Smartalox on 01.30.20 at 5:59 pm

Lowering the bar on the mortgage stress test by a quarter of a percentage point is a Loooooooong way from ‘gutting it’.

#21 mj on 01.30.20 at 6:00 pm

the bank of Canada is considering a rate cut if things slow down. I believe if oil keeps dropping, they might drop rates. Nothing surprises me, if things slow down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone throwing a 5 year mortgage for 1.99

#22 Another Deckchair on 01.30.20 at 6:00 pm

Houses and expenses in Canada.

Mr. Money Mustache, who many of us know via his blog, put his 2019 expenses on line.

Now, it’s US$, but for him, and a teenage son 1/2 of the time, TOTAL yearly expenses converted to CAD: $28,300.

—-

Our expenses? Most likely at least 3 time higher.

Same size house, and there’s 2 of us, but we have a dog.

Just choosing two of his expenses:

Property taxes: MRM (CAD) $2,290 ours: (CAD) $6,100

Booze: MRM (CAD) $266 ours: about 10x that, I’d guess!

I mean, what’s a case of beer cost? Say $40.00, $266 for the year will get you about 6 cases of beer, 12 bottles of beer per month; 6 bottles per person for the two of us for the month. If you believe the UVic link below, we Canadians average 480 bottles/year per person; that’s 40 bottles per month- a lot more than 6 that MrM’s expenses spent here would get you.

The US is really inexpensive, or they don’t drink alcohol I guess.

FYI – here’s his blog posting:

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020/01/27/mmm-2019-spending/

And the UVIC link: https://www.uvic.ca/research/centres/cisur/stats/alcohol/index.php

#23 George on 01.30.20 at 6:03 pm

GDP could tumble from 6% to 4.5% this quarter. That’s a big deal.

——–

good grief, the other day you were flippant about, wouldnt put a dent in the markets.

it never fails, peoples need to predict

It hasn’t. – Garth

#24 Robbie on 01.30.20 at 6:03 pm

But it’s widely accepted cats plot to kill you while sleeping. – Garth

:-) :-)

#25 Another Deckchair on 01.30.20 at 6:03 pm

Regarding my Mr. MoneyMustache comparison, hopefully accepted and published just above:

Anyone want to take another of his line items, and compare it to yours?

Anyone thinking we are getting taxed to death?

I’d be interested in what YOUR Canadian expenses are compared to his. Merci.

#26 wallflower on 01.30.20 at 6:05 pm

woo Mills with housing bait; and,
woe be to those suckers

#27 will on 01.30.20 at 6:13 pm

That GIF is hilarious! Where do you get this stuff Garth?

#28 Felix on 01.30.20 at 6:28 pm

But it’s widely accepted cats plot to kill you while sleeping. – Garth

^~^

True. But only if you deserve it.

As decided by the SCC. (Supreme Cat Court)

#29 Dogman01 on 01.30.20 at 6:36 pm

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/clinical-symptoms-coronavirus-journal-study-virus/

The article above has some current known observations. CBC is no help, they seem more worried about ensuring docility, calming the public must be the orders from up high.

“Because asymptomatic infection appears possible, controlling the epidemic will also rely on isolating patients, tracing and quarantining contacts as early as possible”

We are probably doomed

#30 Camille on 01.30.20 at 6:46 pm

If bond yields were to approach 0%, the price would be up, but they would simply hand you back your face value, as maturity approaches, for mid and long bonds. For short bonds they’re already pretty much cash. So holding long bonds with very low rates is not good, and expose you to rising rates. They will seem to be good in the near term, but value decreases with time. People will hold them without an alternative, but if rates go very low, turn to cash and look for alternatives.

Let me state the obvious once again. Nobody holds bonds to collect interest. – Garth

#31 GrumpyPanda on 01.30.20 at 6:50 pm

There will always be something to worry about.

A bag of six avocados is on sale this week at No Frills for $1.87. Avocado is very healthy to eat. And it is fun to say with a Mexican accent: “Avocados from Mexico!”
The virus could easily get out of hand. And markets could decline. But that would solve the global warming threat that seems to have disappeared from the news along with a myriad of other concerns.

#32 Tater on 01.30.20 at 7:03 pm

#122 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Still, 27M shares / $16B in shorts is a LOT. Regardless of the arbitragers, there’s a serious short squeeze on.

The collapse and cover could further juice this epic run.

For those who don’t know, we’re talking Tesla stock.

—————————————-

If you’re happy owning a car company that spends half it’s d&a in capex and loses 800mm per year, have at it. But realize you’re not investing. This is trading and you’d better have a plan. Because this can turn at anytime.

#33 Yield Curve on 01.30.20 at 7:29 pm

… and the Canadian yield curve is still inverted for over 6 months. U.S. curve creeping back to inversion.

#34 Sail Away on 01.30.20 at 7:38 pm

#31 Tater on 01.30.20 at 7:03 pm
#122 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Still, 27M shares / $16B in shorts is a LOT. Regardless of the arbitragers, there’s a serious short squeeze on.

The collapse and cover could further juice this epic run.

For those who don’t know, we’re talking Tesla stock.

—————————————-

If you’re happy owning a car company that spends half it’s d&a in capex and loses 800mm per year, have at it. But realize you’re not investing. This is trading and you’d better have a plan. Because this can turn at anytime.

——————————-

645% return / 7 years :-) <– that's me being happy

Your turn

#35 the ryguy - In cabo on 01.30.20 at 7:40 pm

The cost of money will not stay at these levels
—————————————————–

I would disagree with this point..there’s just too much debt. By constantly taking the easy route and lowering rates in response to every hurdle, the central banks/governments (lets be honest they are one in the same) have backed themselves in a corner. They may fiddle a quarter point here and there, but I can’t see rates even hitting 5% in my lifetime. Canada would collapse overnight.

#36 S.Bby on 01.30.20 at 7:45 pm

For Felix:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6486424/fort-macleod-cat-complaints/

#37 TalkingPie on 01.30.20 at 7:46 pm

#21 Another Deckchair on 01.30.20 at 6:00 pm
Houses and expenses in Canada.

Mr. Money Mustache, who many of us know via his blog, put his 2019 expenses on line.

Now, it’s US$, but for him, and a teenage son 1/2 of the time, TOTAL yearly expenses converted to CAD: $28,300.

—-

Our expenses? Most likely at least 3 time higher.

Same size house, and there’s 2 of us, but we have a dog.

Just choosing two of his expenses:

Property taxes: MRM (CAD) $2,290 ours: (CAD) $6,100

Booze: MRM (CAD) $266 ours: about 10x that, I’d guess!

I mean, what’s a case of beer cost? Say $40.00, $266 for the year will get you about 6 cases of beer, 12 bottles of beer per month; 6 bottles per person for the two of us for the month. If you believe the UVic link below, we Canadians average 480 bottles/year per person; that’s 40 bottles per month- a lot more than 6 that MrM’s expenses spent here would get you.

The US is really inexpensive, or they don’t drink alcohol I guess.
********************************************

Extrapolating the expenses of one ultra-frugal, multimillionaire early-retired engineer in the Colorado exurbs, whose habits and acumen are impressive enough to give him worldwide attention, to the expenses of everyone in all the locations of the US is a special kind of delusional.

This guy doesn’t live in San Francisco or NY, he says in the comments he has a couple of drinks per WEEK (at home), he self-insures everything from his and his son’s health to his dental to his home (which, incidentally is fully paid-off and doesn’t figure into his annual expenses beyond taxes and maintenance), and goes out of his way to optimize and DIY everything.

If you want, I could tell you how my and my spouse’s living expenses just outside of Canada’s second largest metropolis were in the CAD 40,000 range, with three cars and a mortgage on a 2,700 sq ft house on a 25,000 sq ft lot. I guess that means all of Canada is cheap, right?

#38 Smoker and Drinker on 01.30.20 at 7:51 pm

fa·ce·tious
treating serious issues with deliberately inappropriate humor; flippant.
“a facetious remark”

Regarding my posts; that is all it was meant to be.

The virus seems to be a little more serious this time; look out for one another and take the proper precautions. We are all in it together!

#39 palebird on 01.30.20 at 7:52 pm

Have you ever noticed that there is a major crisis happening on the news at any given time? And has the world ended? Just saying..

#40 Shirl Clarts on 01.30.20 at 8:01 pm

#6 So much for that.. on 01.30.20 at 4:20 pm
Coronavirus scare aboard Italian cruise ship subsides as Chinese passengers test negative

The negative results meant that about 1,100 of the passengers who were due to leave the ship at Civitavecchia have now been authorized to go ashore.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What? This must be fake news. Unless the cruise ship has its own Virus testing facility, I doubt they can confirm all passengers are negative.

Moot point. It’s the food you should be concerned about.

#41 Apocalypse2020 on 01.30.20 at 8:04 pm

GLOBAL HEALTH EMERGENCY!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/who-declares-coronavirus-a-global-health-emergency

Some added perspective:

China accounts for 450 million more annual air passengers, just over the last decade.

China’s foreign air traffic outbound is about 6x bigger than it was in 2002 before SARS.

The airline world has become dependent on this globalized revenue source, hence the slow responses in banning travel from China.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/01/29/business/29reuters-china-health-airlines-analysis.html

Days and weeks have already passed since the early stages. Millions more passengers have landed all over the world and within China. Much, much, much more serious numbers than with SARS.

Coronavirus can take many days to materialize.

So…..

Expect a major explosion of the numbers. It’s the only reasonable outlook.

There will be no room for you to squeeze in for some good ol’ Canadian hallway medicine in the weeks ahead.

It will already be much too late.

PREPARE

#42 sheikh-ali Asghar on 01.30.20 at 8:04 pm

Canada is a world leader in debt. This is no secret. The Bank of Canada has identified household debt as one of the biggest risks to our economy, and a number of international bodies have also raised red flags.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/canadas-world-leading-debt-could-be-its-downfall-in-global-downturn-report-warns/ar-BBZtYCu?li=AAgh0dA&ocid=mailsignout

#43 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.30.20 at 8:05 pm

With due respect to last nite’s blog re “TD bank” and its innovative financial engineering of credit card products, is this a forecast of tepid future earnings at TD and all the Big 6? Of course, TD is not going to enter into the “payday loan” area but is this interest on interest on credit card bills checking the smell of a stopped up loo?

#44 Some guy on 01.30.20 at 8:08 pm

Religion has died out and real estate has taken its place.

It’s sad what Canada has turned into.

Imagine if we spent 1 trillion dollars on infrastructure. Instead, we let the banking and real-estate industry pick our pockets while we watch the home and garden network; chasing a dream sold to us by marketers.

#45 Penelope Ponzi on 01.30.20 at 8:21 pm

#91 IHCTD9 on 01.30.20 at 9:39 am

#66 Bob Dog on 01.29.20 at 9:58 pm
Funny how your corrupt criminal government will consider any and every possible solution to a nation housing crisis except reducing the rate at which they migrate people to Canada. The population has been thoroughly conditioned over decades to accept without question a policy of mass migration.

Canadians exist for the benefit of corporations foreign and domestic and the vermin in Ottawa are committed to providing and endless supply of people will to work for peanuts.
___

Yes, to work cheap and do all the menial jobs that Canadians don’t want too. That’s not such a bad deal for you as an established Canadian. ”

This actually the structure of capitalism, to have an endless supply of people buying into the system at the bottom end of the food chain…a bit like a ponzi scheme, and collapse it will!

#46 Shawn Allen on 01.30.20 at 8:23 pm

Why are interest rates so low

#34 the ryguy – In cabo on 01.30.20 at 7:40 pm
The cost of money will not stay at these levels
—————————————————–

I would disagree with this point..there’s just too much debt.

********************************
Under supply and demand rules, higher demand for debt should push rates up not down.

We have establised that supply of lending does not require pre-existing bank deposits.

But it does require willingness to lend.

It seems that there is a huge supply of lenders willing to take the risk that borrowers will repay. And they accept low rates.

At some point the appetite to take on the risk of lending could shrink. That would cause rates to rise and I don’t know that central banks could prevent it.

#47 Burnt Ward on 01.30.20 at 8:24 pm

I hereby christen a new word for the financial lexicon.

“Black Bat event”- similar to a black swan event but financial contagion and meltdown caused by actual biological virus circulating in human population

#48 Drinker and Smoker not Smoking Man on 01.30.20 at 8:24 pm

Calgary or Alberta separatist; sorry forgot the exact user name; anyways what do you think of this? I know my reaction to this; time will certainly tell of the outcome! I am going with the positive but could be wrong; so shoot me!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/brexit-european-union-nigel-farage

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.20 at 8:45 pm

well well well.
Food shortages in China already?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vegetables/china-to-release-winter-and-spring-vegetable-reserves-to-ease-supply-shortages-xinhua-idUSKBN1ZT35C

One wonders if the incompetent, corrupt chinese leadership will resort to Tienanmen Square Tactics to ‘quell” the food riots that are sure to start.
Nothing like a billion hungry, angry people to focus one’s attention.

#50 Jager on 01.30.20 at 8:46 pm

Why was this allowed? These (1000) passengers should have been quarantined for at least 7 days in an isolated floor of a Toronto hospital. Simply allowing these passengers to go into their respective community to potentially infect is gross incompetence bordering on insanity.

How would you feel if your child or grandparent died as a result?
https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-thousands-unchecked-for-coronavirus-at-pearson

Corona Virus Present in Every Region of China
https://youtu.be/PALSPlc-JTY

#51 the ryguy - In cabo on 01.30.20 at 8:59 pm

Under supply and demand rules, higher demand for debt should push rates up not down.
————————————————————
In theory I agree..but we are already WAY past a normal market. There has been so much manipulation already that we can’t use the academic rules anymore.

Learn how bonds work. Demand increases price, not yield. Never has. Never will. – Garth

#52 Drunk and Smoking or Smoking and Drunk on 01.30.20 at 9:04 pm

#41 sheikh-ali Asghar

Yeah, we know on this blog; Garth has warned us but unfortunately the rest of them do not get it. I am so thankful that I have dual citizenship; not because I do not love this country; after fifty plus years I just realized that unless attitudes and entitlement changes there is no hope for this country, T2 has truly been a disaster when we needed it the least, he would have been ok in 30 yrs time; his and her ideals killed us. It was not the right time for this country. What a bloody shame of this so called highly educated/Butts idealism just did not get it! It is so perplexing that they were really were/are that stupid!! Listen to the workers out there not the fat assed people that have no idea>> Christ of Mighty!

#53 akashic record on 01.30.20 at 9:06 pm

Alright, I too, got the fancy letter from an other of the 6 banks about charging interest on the interest…

Can someone shed some light, if there was a recent legislative change that prompted these banks to roll out this innovation, at the same time? Who, when introduced it?

If there was no any change that makes this suddenly legal, can we talk about a cartel decision? Can these banks get away with operating as a cartel?

#54 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 9:08 pm

Smoking Man, are you still alive? Dolce? Flop? Eks? Gravy Train? Jess?

This is hard work trying to make up for all your missing posts.

#55 Dr Talc on 01.30.20 at 9:42 pm

Fake virus, fake risk to our lenders.
Any questions?

#56 Bezengy on 01.30.20 at 9:49 pm

#48
—————
Maybe I can help answer that one. I went in to buy a rifle today at one of the outdoor stores here in Calgary. (the usual eight percent off sale is hard to pass up). Everything was going well until I showed him my Ontario ID, and then the conversation, and tone seemed to change. After the “thank GOD for the oil patch” speech I decided to leave. No bother telling him I didn’t vote for T2.

#57 WUL on 01.30.20 at 9:55 pm

I’m glad I liquidated everything the last week of December. With the exception of my vast tract of land in SW Calgary. She’s a keeper.

Speaking of the Calgary real estate market. In a Monty Pythonesqe voice it mutters “But I’m not dead yet.” according to the stats for January from CREB.

I could be knee deep in alfalfa (relatively speaking) as 2020 unfolds and find myself walking on the sunny side of the street. A Carter Family reference for C&W music fans.

WUL

#58 Doug t on 01.30.20 at 10:14 pm

Sometimes I wonder if this “country” was built on nothing more then the Hudson Bay Company and beaver pelts. We are a measly 153 years old – we have ZERO culture let alone history to speak of compared to many parts of the world. Our “citizens” cling to hockey and Tim hortons like it means something spiritual to them – we have no concrete base, nothing much that binds us together deeply. It’s no wonder we have a fragmented relationship amongst provinces, even cities – we have no “glue” to truly bind us together. We are like a flag blowing in the wind with no power as to which direction we blow – oh well 1967 was nice but after that not so much

#59 Dog Thoughts on 01.30.20 at 10:18 pm

Today I found a really good stick.

But I chewed it too hard and it broke in half.

disappoint.

Then I realized! I have two sticks!

today has been an emotional roller coaster.

#60 Ok not drunk just facinated on 01.30.20 at 10:55 pm

A request to all those who are so much smarter then I am. I found this most spectacular; how the sun looks so much like our cell structure. A call to the scientist or highly educated in this field; do you think that there is a link to this and us and if not what is your hypothesis? The familiarity is most interesting, thank you.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/sun-most-detailed-1.5445816

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.20 at 11:13 pm

@#50 Jager
“Simply allowing these passengers to go into their respective community to potentially infect is gross incompetence bordering on insanity.”
+++++
Silly Jager.
Holding people against their will isnt good optics.
This is Canada.
Land of political correctness and optimism.
Dont be such a virus pessimist.
Try on this pink T-shirt.
You’ll feel better.

Look on the bright side .
If you’re wrong. No harm done.
If you’re right.
Stuttering Trudeau and his hand washing minions will take the blame for the rapid spread in Canada.

#62 the ryguy - In cabo on 01.30.20 at 11:14 pm

Learn how bonds work. Demand increases price, not yield. Never has. Never will. – Garth
————————————————————————
Easy killer, whats got you growling tonight? I never said anything about bonds. I know how they work, and I know how their relationship to interest rates. I said the Canadian economy could not afford much higher rates. You think one single condo would get sold at todays prices if interest rates jumped to 7%? Not a chance. Anyone with a variable rate would be in default within a year. It would be the USA back in 2007 all over again. You’re the one always preaching how half the country is $200 bucks from being homeless.

Yes in theory rates shouldn’t stay this low..but they will, because the Economy is toast if they don’t.

#63 Jager on 01.30.20 at 11:15 pm

A must watch video from laowhy86 that details how the top down approach of the CCP facilitates bureaucratic conciliation and dysfunction. (Viewer Discretion – Wet Market Scenes)
https://youtu.be/VLp8CHeKQkI

#64 Stone on 01.30.20 at 11:16 pm

This is one good reason why every prudent investor should have about 40% of their overall portfolio in fixed income, including government, corporate and provincial bond ETFs. Not only do they provide shelter in a storm, they can be profitable. One nice bond fund we like plumped 10% last year, for example.

———

What? Not touting pref shares as part of the fixed income component? Have they fallen out of favour?

#65 Linda on 01.30.20 at 11:18 pm

At first I thought the bit ‘woe Mills with housing bait’ was an autocorrect error & was meant to say ‘woo’ instead of ‘woe’ – but, given the distinct possibility that Mills who purchase will be paying way too much & taking on way too much debt, I decided ‘woe’ is in fact the appropriate wording:)

About the viral based economic contraction. Presumably this will be a short term thing & later in the year things will return to normal insofar as markets & economies are concerned. It will be interesting to see if inflation figures remain constant & what the reasoning for this will be. I’m beginning to wonder if North America has entered a long period of low inflation due to demographics such as Japan has experienced for more than two decades. I keep expecting to see the official numbers jump given the number of price increases for various goods & services I’ve read lately, but that needle seems like it is fixed in place. Predictions, anyone?

#66 Rumpelstiltskin on 01.30.20 at 11:23 pm

In case you missed it, QE (Quantitative Easing) is now policy @ the Bank of Canada. Coincidence?
(FYI it’s not called QE…but if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, what is it?)

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/01/modification-operational-details-bank-of-canadas-primary-market-purchases/

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 12:04 am

#54 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 9:08 pm
Smoking Man, are you still alive? Dolce? Flop? Eks? Gravy Train? Jess?

This is hard work trying to make up for all your missing posts.
————–
I’m still here.f

#68 G on 01.31.20 at 12:20 am

FYI

How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ&t=2s

I hope it is contained here. there are only so many ICU beds. I guess we will know better in a few weeks.

Maybe get some more vitamin now, to help get your immune system ready just in case. Might not be any left if you need them later. multi vitamin, C, D3, k2, folic acid, B complex and start taking them now. If you have them and get sick you can take a lot more, and mega does on the D3 every 12 hours 40,000units. until you get better, hopefully. Colloidal silver also might help to have. and anti-inflammatory support with stuff like Tumeric, and garlic and lemon juice.

Maybe they will find that some anti viral drugs help a bit, maybe. But if it spreads very much… a lot of PPE comes from(did) China. Were are a lot of drug made?

I hope they stop the Super Bowel until we know it is under control!!! Maybe stop the Trump Rallies until we know it is contained too.

We need to see what is happening in the next weeks. since it might take 14 day to show symptoms, mean while being able to spread it from day one it seems.

#69 Not So New guy on 01.31.20 at 12:27 am

Governments are exactly like investors. They say they will do such and such when push comes to shove but when that time actually arrives, fear and greed always take over.

This is why it is better to trust market forces over the ‘wise guidance’ of a handful of the ‘smartest people in the room’. Those people always bow to political pressure and mad mob threats. Control levers need to be kept as far from human hands as possible (this should also apply to our personal lives). When this is done, people will always choose the most rational, expedient option. Otherwise, the pain will be prolonged as long as possible which actually spreads the pain to many more and makes recovery harder

Do you ever notice how it is the smartest people in the room that cause both wars and market crashes?

#70 crazyfox on 01.31.20 at 1:12 am

Mr. Market could be slow to react on this one as things are changing daily. 3 days ago, 6% to 4.5% GDP seemed plausible. Today however, WHO declared Corona virus a global emergency. This is a big deal and is well worth exploring why. Russia closed it’s borders to Northern China today and if we look at a map of China, we see that Russia joins Mongolia, North Korea and Kazakhstan with border closings. When we look at Corona virus spreading on a map:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea… Corona is spreading through flights, potentially even through exports as the virus remains dormant on contact surfaces in enclosed areas for up to 5 days. I think it’s a matter of time before borders are restricted west and south of China. India and the Philippines have only 1 case each but if it gets into these nations, the chance for spread internationally rises dramatically. Considering the infection incubation period assumed lasting for up to 14 days (small 10 person sample size indicates 5 day average) before symptoms arise and the rate of spread, its enough for the WHO to act.

China, as most know, is on a NY holiday (year of the Rat) that began on Jan 25th and ends in the second week of February? The Chinese people are practicing self isolation because most aren’t working and can at the moment, but harsher realities will come as people are called back to work or need to make money. People will be torn between their loyalty to China and their loyalty to work coupled with financial pressures of lost income. What happens in the next few weeks as work is scheduled to resume, is anyone’s guess but one can only assume it will be a mess.

China has been lauded as quick to act on this crisis but there are reports of shortages for testing the virus. Numbers could be largely under reported in Wulan in particular related specifically to quarantine, but we just don’t know. The numbers of infected cases are low outside of China which is encouraging but if we look at the map one more time in the link above, what we will see now is significant spread of the virus outside of Wuhan. Shanghai (121 cases) and Beijing (128 cases) are China’s 2 most populated cities. Guangdong (393), Zhejiang (537 cases, click on names on interactive map above and we will see that this virus is on the move in China). It’s looking like the quarantine on Wuhan would have definitely slowed the rate of spread but hasn’t stopped it. What we are now seeing is the spread of Corona throughout the Chinese mainland.

Consider for a moment, an example of a gathering of 90,000 people in Wuhan stuffing their faces in celebration of the NY on the 22nd of Jan, 3 miles from the suspected origin of contagion. Wuhan becomes quarantined on the 23rd. To date, all 31 provinces have reported Corona cases, it’s well outside of Wuhan now and appears to have proliferated throughout China. The Enwiki link below is constantly updated (it appears to be several times a day) so it will continue to evolve but it’s well worth the read:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

One of the references I thought to be interesting:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-infections-no-symptoms-lancet-studies/

…led me to this link above which is an in depth look at the first 41 Corona virus cases.

“019-nCoV caused clusters of fatal pneumonia with clinical presentation greatly resembling SARS-CoV. Patients infected with 2019-nCoV might develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, have a high likelihood of admission to intensive care, and might die. The cytokine storm could be associated with disease severity. More efforts should be made to know the whole spectrum and pathophysiology of the new disease.” – link

#71 under the radar on 01.31.20 at 4:36 am

53-If there was no any change that makes this suddenly legal, can we talk about a cartel decision? Can these banks get away with operating as a cartel?

What? – Banks changed their credit policies , so what ? they give notice , the law does not need to change for a bank or any lender to charge compound interest even if they all follow one another.

#72 G on 01.31.20 at 4:45 am

FYI

Coronavirus and washing hands by Dr. Paul Cottrell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzqNNc9xbRw&t=932s

Coronavirus and why not to wear your masks by Dr. Paul Cottrell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lypl_EhMLI8

#73 JerseyCynic on 01.31.20 at 4:48 am

My nightly prayer for the moisters:

Verily, verily I say to yous…

May the FSM lead you not into temptation
and deliver you from the evils of all vinyl plank flooring.

Amen

#74 Asian ExPat on 01.31.20 at 5:50 am

BANNED (No matter how many screen names you use. Buzz off.)

#75 Steven Rowlandson on 01.31.20 at 6:06 am

If the mortality rate isn’t that high then its impact on the economy isn’t going to be that big a deal. Just a lot of people getting sick and losing time at work and having a miserable time with a small percentage dying. A non zero problem to be sure but not a slate wiper event. Now if it were something worse like Pneumonic Plague or African Swine flu that became dangerous for humans then Katie bar the door….

#76 Tater on 01.31.20 at 6:08 am

34 the ryguy – In cabo on 01.30.20 at 7:40 pm
The cost of money will not stay at these levels
—————————————————–

I would disagree with this point..there’s just too much debt. By constantly taking the easy route and lowering rates in response to every hurdle, the central banks/governments (lets be honest they are one in the same) have backed themselves in a corner. They may fiddle a quarter point here and there, but I can’t see rates even hitting 5% in my lifetime. Canada would collapse overnight.
——————————————————-

The Fed and the BOC only control rates as far as they are seen as trustworthy by the bond market. If the bond market gets a sniff of real inflation (not Stan Brooks fantasy inflation) they will demand higher rates. And they don’t care what that means for the economy or country.

#77 Tater on 01.31.20 at 6:27 am

33 Sail Away on 01.30.20 at 7:38 pm
#31 Tater on 01.30.20 at 7:03 pm
#122 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Still, 27M shares / $16B in shorts is a LOT. Regardless of the arbitragers, there’s a serious short squeeze on.

The collapse and cover could further juice this epic run.

For those who don’t know, we’re talking Tesla stock.

—————————————-

If you’re happy owning a car company that spends half it’s d&a in capex and loses 800mm per year, have at it. But realize you’re not investing. This is trading and you’d better have a plan. Because this can turn at anytime.

——————————-

645% return / 7 years :-) <– that's me being happy

Your turn

———————————————-

Not sure there’s a better indicator of market tops than when doctors and engineers get cocky about their investing skills.

“Stock price, bro!” Is such a weak argument. I’m quite happy being right about the operations of the company. Eventually operation and stock price align. Just ask investors in Nortel, JDSU, Enron, etc.

But since you’re such a savvy investor, why don’t you share one positive operational metric from this last earnings release?

#78 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 7:21 am

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 12:04 am
#54 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 9:08 pm

Smoking Man, are you still alive? Dolce? Flop? Eks? Gravy Train? Jess?

This is hard work trying to make up for all your missing posts.
————–
I’m still here.f

———

Like gum on a shoe.

What did you do with the $4M?

#79 Captain Uppa on 01.31.20 at 7:24 am

Let me state the obvious once again. Nobody holds bonds to collect interest. – Garth

———————————–

I’ll be honest, I don’t know all the intricacies on how bonds work even when explained to me. I am, however, smarter than the average bear and I know it best to have someone manage my portfolio.

Pay the 1%, people. It’s worth it. 60/40 baby.

#80 WEXIT! on 01.31.20 at 7:44 am

Brexit happens today!

WEXIT is coming next!

#81 Wait There on 01.31.20 at 8:14 am

Is there a chart of the recovery rate on the virus. Something like an aging on debt recovery?
If there are cased where a small percentage is able to natural counter the virus, then these become the quickly recovered stats. What the stats would not show is what is happening to the infected on a statistical basis based on how long they are infected.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 8:20 am

@#59 Doug T
“We are a measly 153 years old …”
+++++

I guess we should ignore the 10’s of thousands of years the native populations that existed in isolation before the first European explorers hacked out a living in 1497 ( Nova Scotia).
Then the next few hundred years before confederation as more settlers managed to survive in the brutal conditions, ( swarms of mosquitoes in the summer, disease, wars, and frostbite in the winter…no pink T-shirts, no politically correct commissars to brow beat the masses on how to think….the horror….how did we survive?).

After all that we sat down and created a country…..only six years after Italy (1861) which had been a “civilization” for thousands of years before Canada.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 8:23 am

@#73 G

Coronavirus and why not to wear your masks by Dr. Paul Cottrell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lypl_EhMLI8

++++++

Shhhhhh.
Thats how the virus recognizes the stupid ones…natural selection and all that.

#84 Stan Brooks on 01.31.20 at 8:27 am

The Fed and the BOC only control rates as far as they are seen as trustworthy by the bond market. If the bond market gets a sniff of real inflation (not Stan Brooks fantasy inflation) they will demand higher rates. And they don’t care what that means for the economy or country.

There is no market for bonds bigger than the central bankers. They are already purchasing bonds, it is in the news.

You can ask as much interest as you want for your money, nobody needs it for the bond purchases.

The current money pipeline is bypassing deposits and savers, money are created at loan time, then loans are sold/collateralized by the commercial banks to the central bank in exchange of freshly minted cash while government debt will soon be entirely purchased by central banks and the pension funds.

Official inflation is over 2.3 %. Prices of necessities rise much faster. Deposits are taxed and subject to fees.

Stock market rose by 30 % last year while the economy grew sub 2 %.
House prices in GTA and Vancouver increased 5-6 fold in 15 years.

Groceries rose in double digits in the last few years.

M2 money supply increases over 5-6 % yearly for the last 15-20 years, it is on the BoC web site.

Higher than reported inflation is a fact and not a conspiracy theory.

Cheers,

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 8:28 am

@#81 Wexit
“WEXIT is coming next!”
+++++

Pffft.
The knuckhead factor banging pots and pans over “victory”.

Brexit in name only.
Now the really nasty negotiations start.
Watch over the next 12 months as the Brits realize with slowly dawning horror at the brutal financial /trade / border fiasco they have created for themselves…. Utter foolishness.
Perhaps the the Queen and all the other royal welps can also set up shop in Saanich to avoid the civil war.

#86 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 8:31 am

#78 Tater on 01.31.20 at 6:27 am
33 Sail Away on 01.30.20 at 7:38 pm

645% return / 7 years :-) <– that's me being happy

Your turn

———————————————-

Not sure there’s a better indicator of market tops than when doctors and engineers get cocky about their investing skills.

But since you’re such a savvy investor, why don’t you share one positive operational metric from this last earnings release?

—————————–

Agreed. And add lawyers to that list, like that Munger character. Think of a Paypal guy with the audacity to think he can start a rocket company and electric car company. As if he'll make it.

A mail clerk submitting physics papers on relativity? Ludicrous.

It's weird the way things can be learned from reading, taking classes and practicing, eh?

Imagine an engineer with decent experience examining Elon Musk's work and realizing the sheer genius and drive to do what he has done is out of this world. I think someone somewhere calls that a 'circle of competence'.

Although I greatly enjoy pulling your chain, I'm always cautious and have long since recouped my outlay. The rest will ride as pure belief in Elon. We don't get to see many true outliers. He's one. It's nice to have a hero. Especially one who makes me rich.

Do you have heroes?

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 8:31 am

Who needs paper masks when there is recycling..
Vancouver is awesome!

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/traveling-containers-heads-yvr-photos-2054517

#88 MF on 01.31.20 at 8:32 am

76 Steven Rowlandson on 01.31.20 at 6:06

Wrong.

A virus with a high mortality is usually self limiting because it kills all it hosts. Think Ebola.

A virus with a lower mortality rate like this one has an ever present reservoir to stay around, make people sick, and kill a constant percentage.

This is notwithstanding the risk of mutation making it more deadly, or that it seems to lead to pneumonia a lot…which has its own mortality rate and host of complications.

MF

#89 Tater on 01.31.20 at 8:43 am

#85 Stan Brooks on 01.31.20 at 8:27 am
The Fed and the BOC only control rates as far as they are seen as trustworthy by the bond market. If the bond market gets a sniff of real inflation (not Stan Brooks fantasy inflation) they will demand higher rates. And they don’t care what that means for the economy or country.

There is no market for bonds bigger than the central bankers. They are already purchasing bonds, it is in the news.

—————————————-
I know you are allergic to facts, but here’s some anyway. The publicly held portion of US Federal debt is about 17 trillion. The Feds balance sheet is 4 trillion. How are they the biggest buyer of Treasuries?

Right, they aren’t. And they can’t control rates if the public (really their proxies of fund managers) demand higher rates to offset inflation risk.

#90 MF on 01.31.20 at 8:46 am

Gutting the stress test?

Interest rates still too low?

Man they’re stupid.

Captain Uppa on 01.30.20 at 3:55

Buddy re died long ago. The market is 100% dependent on “low interest rates” and whatever dumb policy these idiots come up with.

I’ll say it again, re investors are not real investors. They are just government coddled fools. The gains of the last decade are fake and undeserved.

What is deserved is the tons of taxes going to levied at this “investment” class. Just wait.

MF

#91 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 8:53 am

#4 T on 01.30.20 at 4:09 pm

Anecdotal, but a boots on the ground report. Take it for what it is. I take it as a sign of the times; those in debt are hurting, those without debt want it like their lives depend on [it].
____

That’s Toronto for you. Everyone is suffering from an inferiority complex. Everyone quaking with fear at the prospect of renting for life with no idea what to do about it.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in a downtown Toronto bank, but they’d surely hear me roaring with laughter all day, and I’d get the swatter.

You watch, if they can get a fiver for 2.5% in a few months, these goofs will be lining up, pushing and shoving trying to get in the door. Frantic to live under a mountain of debt and make banks, boomers, developers, not to mention City Hall, filthy rich.

Good grief, what a dump. No wonder anyone with brains is getting the hell out of there.

#92 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 8:56 am

#78 Tater on 01.31.20 at 6:27 am
33 Sail Away on 01.30.20 at 7:38 pm

If you’re happy owning a car company that spends half it’s d&a in capex and loses 800mm per year, have at it. But realize you’re not investing. This is trading and you’d better have a plan. Because this can turn at anytime.

——————————-

645% return / 7 years :-) <– that's me being happy

Your turn

———————————————-

Not sure there’s a better indicator of market tops than when doctors and engineers get cocky about their investing skills.

——————————-

Actually, that wasn't cocky at all. I said I was happy, and gave some factual metrics influencing my happiness. A rational discussion is difficult when one party's MO seems to be denigration first.

Sort of like Sold Out who went off the rails ad hominem-ly yesterday.

As Farley Mowat's companion complained, 'if only everyone could be a little more like me…'

#93 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 9:07 am

I await today’s markets with great anticipation. +6% premarket on contagion protection. The gains are infectious!

#94 MF on 01.31.20 at 9:57 am

2 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 8:53 am

IH troll?

Unlike this respected poster to be so brash and delusional.

MF

#95 Stan Brooks on 01.31.20 at 10:05 am

#90 Tater on 01.31.20 at 8:43 am

The fed is the biggest holder of US debt:

https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Foreign governments buy it in order to devalue their currencies – mostly exporters to US.

The % of government debt purchased by central bank will only increase, source:

https://www.ft.com/content/ae19e60e-81b0-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd

+ I am talking about our own bonds here/not US – the world reserve currency.

There is no line up of international entities willing to take on our debt issued in local currency. I am hearing lately it is mostly in USD/Euros.

Here is data on real inflation of necessities:

https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/the-inflation-measurement-scam/

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure
https://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

Cheers,

#96 Sold Out on 01.31.20 at 10:28 am

#93 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 8:56 am

Sort of like Sold Out who went off the rails ad hominem-ly yesterday.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Hmm, I said:

“I should’ve known; that’s not a quote from any ancient Greek classic. Usually found on hard right/religious right sites, typically cited to support racist views.”

You said:

“Wow, that was a short path from refusing to shake hands to racism.

Continue if you must into xenophobia, genocide and psychotic homicide, but you’re making me uncomfortable.”

Nice try, but if anyone is going ad hominem, it’s not me.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

#97 Dharma Bum on 01.31.20 at 10:38 am

Coronavirus hysteria.

It will all blow over.

Keep calm and invest on.

Think of it as a gift.

#98 BillyBob on 01.31.20 at 10:47 am

#91 MF on 01.31.20 at 8:46 am
Gutting the stress test?

Interest rates still too low?

Man they’re stupid.

Captain Uppa on 01.30.20 at 3:55

Buddy re died long ago. The market is 100% dependent on “low interest rates” and whatever dumb policy these idiots come up with.

I’ll say it again, re investors are not real investors. They are just government coddled fools. The gains of the last decade are fake and undeserved.

What is deserved is the tons of taxes going to levied at this “investment” class. Just wait.

MF

==================================================

Good grief, can practically see you just quivering with righteous indignation.

When do you think you’ll get over just plain missing out on being able to buy a house in Toronto? Ever?

“Just wait!”

Like a red-faced child with crossed arms stamping their foot when the other kids are mean to him.

Do you think your parents should somehow give back the gains accrued from their residence – given than you feel they are “fake and undeserved”? Did you get disinherited recently or something?

A life of envious regret will be hard on you. Suggest maybe you try and find some acceptance about reality and adapt to it rather than just complaining about how unfair it is all the time.

As far as IHCTD9, someone not sharing your opinion is not “trolling”. His opinion of Toronto is shared by many and not rare.

#99 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 10:48 am

#58 WUL on 01.30.20 at 9:55 pm

I could be knee deep in alfalfa (relatively speaking) as 2020 unfolds and find myself walking on the sunny side of the street. A Carter Family reference for C&W music fans.

WUL
___

I’ve just started getting into C+W for the first time over the last 3-4 years.

Here’s one I’m liking lately:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXyxFMbqKYA

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 10:51 am

While Canadian bureaucrats sleep……

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/airport-screening-coronavirus-canada-toronto-1.5446959

#101 BillyBob on 01.31.20 at 11:05 am

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.20 at 8:28 am
@#81 Wexit
“WEXIT is coming next!”
+++++

Pffft.
The knuckhead factor banging pots and pans over “victory”.

Brexit in name only.
Now the really nasty negotiations start.
Watch over the next 12 months as the Brits realize with slowly dawning horror at the brutal financial /trade / border fiasco they have created for themselves…. Utter foolishness.

===================================================

Yep. Over here we would call it an “own goal”.

You don’t untangle 47 years of union in 11 months. Higher consumer prices, lower valued currency, more restricted travel are only the tip of the fatberg. But to a hardcore Brexiter this is “win” as long as they don’t have “Brussels” telling them what to do. (Um, because the bright lights at Westminster do such a fine job, is that it?)

They’re be a few folks who fit a wearisomely predictable demographic having a pint at the local Wetherspoons to celebrate tonight. Having cast off the shackles of EU oppression I can only hope they will be so open-minded when Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland decide they wish to be similar unburdened by the “United” Kingdom…

#102 Sail away on 01.31.20 at 11:06 am

#97 Sold Out on 01.31.20 at 10:28 am

Hmm, I said: [etc…]

—————————-

You said lots of things.

Even, at one point, suggesting I was one of Aristotle’s excellent people.

Which, while flattering, seems a bit overly effusive.

#103 Another Deckchair on 01.31.20 at 11:09 am

@36 Talking Pie

“Extrapolating the expenses of one ultra-frugal, multimillionaire early-retired engineer in the Colorado exurbs”

Fair enough;

“This guy doesn’t live in San Francisco or NY, .. has a couple of drinks per WEEK (at home), he self-insures everything … and goes out of his way to optimize and DIY everything.”

We do have house and (our one) car insurance, but other than that, we self-insure ourselves, zero debt, and yours truly actually likes and is good at DIY stuff. So, in that way, our household is a pretty good match for MRM.

“If you want, I could tell you how my and my spouse’s living expenses just outside of Canada’s second largest metropolis were in the CAD 40,000 range, with three cars and a mortgage on a 2,700 sq ft house on a 25,000 sq ft lot. I guess that means all of Canada is cheap, right?”

No, it means that you’ve got it figured out, and should be congratulated! :-)

Thank you very much for the response – much appreciated.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 11:17 am

First turbo hospital to open Feb 2. 1000 patients.
Second one Feb 5. 1600 patients.
Time to join in and learn Mandarin.

#105 G on 01.31.20 at 11:19 am

Hi #98 Dharma Bum, re: CV it will all blow over
Yes that’s what I am hoping for too. Just another flu season. But it’s not idea either for a very small number of mostly sick people to start with. wishing everyone well.

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 11:32 am

79 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 7:21 am
#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 12:04 am
#54 Sail away on 01.30.20 at 9:08 pm

Smoking Man, are you still alive? Dolce? Flop? Eks? Gravy Train? Jess?

This is hard work trying to make up for all your missing posts.
————–
I’m still here.f

———

Like gum on a shoe.

What did you do with the $4M?
————————
That was my twin brother.
He moved back to Austria and opened a high end Dirndl boutique store.
He was always the smarter one.

#107 G on 01.31.20 at 11:32 am

Hi #98 Dharma Bum, Sorry mist spelled ‘not ideal either’ in #99.

#108 Shawn Allen on 01.31.20 at 11:35 am

Supply and Demand and Interest Rates

#51 the ryguy – In cabo on 01.30.20 at 8:59 pm
Under supply and demand rules, higher demand for debt should push rates up not down.
————————————————————
In theory I agree..but we are already WAY past a normal market. There has been so much manipulation already that we can’t use the academic rules anymore.

Learn how bonds work. Demand increases price, not yield. Never has. Never will. – Garth

******************************
What Garth says is true. But ryguy and I were discussing demand for debt (for borrowing). By demand for debt I meant demand to get into debt, not the demand to invest in debt instruments. Demand for bonds adds to the supply of lending, not the demand for debt. Bond holders are lenders not borrowers.

More people clamoring to borrow should push interest rates higher in theory, all else equal. Apparently all else is not equal and the supply of lending via the appetite to lend has grown even faster than the demand for debt it seems.

#109 Ponzius Platus on 01.31.20 at 11:38 am

There is a possibility that China may overtake the States during the next 5 years.
Would not wanna be the Prez if/when that happens.
While they are building turbo hospitals, trump can’t even build a simple wall.

#110 Shawn Allen on 01.31.20 at 11:42 am

Who pays to rescue Canadians from abroad?

Apparently some Canadian tourists or visitors will be sort of rescued out of China. Every once in a while we have a situation where Canadian tourists or visitors are rescued when some country turns dangerous.

That’s great but do they cover at least a part of the cost? The full cost is likely thousands per person, maybe $10,000?

Maybe we should add a small surcharge for air tickets to all but the safest countries to cover this cost as a sort of insurance. There must be a huge diplomatic cost for each of these rescues in addition to just the flight costs?

#111 TurnerNation on 01.31.20 at 11:48 am

TD bank’s Easyweb banking site has been down for hours. Prepare?? An electronic bank run I hope not.

#112 Blog Bunny on 01.31.20 at 12:02 pm

I hope we will get some nice bargains in the market with the coronavirus craze. As long as the bunnies are safe, I am not worried. Off to South America for a month to enjoy some sun and great weather.

#113 Not So New guy on 01.31.20 at 12:15 pm

Easyweb, webbroker and the TD app are all down.

Traders are not too happy and giving it to them on twitter

https://mobile.twitter.com/TD_Canada/status/1223276437739917312

#114 Tater on 01.31.20 at 12:16 pm

92 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 8:53 am
#4 T on 01.30.20 at 4:09 pm

Anecdotal, but a boots on the ground report. Take it for what it is. I take it as a sign of the times; those in debt are hurting, those without debt want it like their lives depend on [it].
____

That’s Toronto for you. Everyone is suffering from an inferiority complex. Everyone quaking with fear at the prospect of renting for life with no idea what to do about it.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in a downtown Toronto bank, but they’d surely hear me roaring with laughter all day, and I’d get the swatter.

You watch, if they can get a fiver for 2.5% in a few months, these goofs will be lining up, pushing and shoving trying to get in the door. Frantic to live under a mountain of debt and make banks, boomers, developers, not to mention City Hall, filthy rich.

Good grief, what a dump. No wonder anyone with brains is getting the hell out of there.

—————————————-

Far better to live in the sticks, with earning power so low the government has to give you cash to make sure your kids are taken care of, I guess.

#115 Tater on 01.31.20 at 12:18 pm

#93 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 8:56 am
#78 Tater on 01.31.20 at 6:27 am
33 Sail Away on 01.30.20 at 7:38 pm

If you’re happy owning a car company that spends half it’s d&a in capex and loses 800mm per year, have at it. But realize you’re not investing. This is trading and you’d better have a plan. Because this can turn at anytime.

——————————-

645% return / 7 years :-) <– that's me being happy

Your turn

———————————————-

Not sure there’s a better indicator of market tops than when doctors and engineers get cocky about their investing skills.

——————————-

Actually, that wasn't cocky at all. I said I was happy, and gave some factual metrics influencing my happiness. A rational discussion is difficult when one party's MO seems to be denigration first.

Sort of like Sold Out who went off the rails ad hominem-ly yesterday.

As Farley Mowat's companion complained, 'if only everyone could be a little more like me…'
—————————————-

Sorry, didn’t realize you’re a millennial.

#116 Mattl on 01.31.20 at 12:23 pm

#8 Victoria on 01.30.20 at 5:04 pm
People in Victoria keep saying property will go up.

50 percent of Canadians are $200 away from insolvency.
Average family income in Victoria $80,000
Average house price in Victoria 2018 $600,000
1/3 of Canadians are retiring without any savings
There are only 370,000 1 per centers in Canada

Is there something I am missing?

—————————————————————

Well ya, a pretty big piece: money is essentially free. An 80K-150K family income can easily carry a 400-600K mortgage at 3%.

Also, rents are incredibly high due to low vacancy rates.

Lastly, places like Victoria and Kelowna are retirement communities for people from all over Canada. Local wages don’t necessarily need to be high to support inflated house prices. In Regina or Winnipeg? Sure. But demand for RE in the best places in the country will not necessarily jive with family incomes.

Not arguing that RE in Vic will go up forever, but there are many factors at play here. Debt may suck but debt financed at level of inflation provides tons of opportunity. There are homeowners that will go from mortgage to no mortgage free with interest rates never exceeding 5%, and averaging low 4s. The comments section calls these folks debt pigs, and forecasts doom for anyone with lots of debt but if rates continue to stay low, these people willing to borrow and ultimately pay down their debt will be winners IMO.

#117 crazyfox on 01.31.20 at 12:29 pm

Can’t help but think the markets being as high as they are, are poised for a correction and Corona being a daily media negative, is enough. The streets in the cities of China are quiet. The first 3 weeks of the year there were active but now and at least for the next week, it will be quiet.

From Feb 10th on, all eyes will be on China to see if people leave self imposed quarantines and risk getting back to work. Reports from foreigners who have ties there are reporting busy supermarkets with perishables being sold out, with most other places closed and quiet. While we wait, we get to hear a slow drip of climbing numbers of infected and dead which will likely correct the markets until good news comes maybe through earnings and maybe not as production sounds flat. I found a couple videos that are worth a watch. This video explains how the Corona virus kills:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ

It’s a good mechanical breakdown of what happens with Corona and worst case pneumonia in general (the lungs fill up with fluid from inflammation) causing hypoxemia (low oxygen in the blood) and medical treatments for it. One treatment (2013) is to strap the patient to the bed and flip the patient over into the prone position (top of chest down) for 16 to 18 hours reducing fatalities by half.

The Dr. in the youtube video goes through 2 other treatments as well and the point is, if someone gets Corona virus or something similar, people have a much better chance of surviving in a hospital than they do on their own. If they end with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and end up in ICU strapped in a rotating bed, they have a better than 50% chance of walking out of there than if they developed ARDS 10 years ago assuming of course, that ICU’s are available and not overwhelmed.

According to a study that came out yesterday from the National Key R&D Program of China, 99 patients were followed from all that were admitted in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital between Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020. This is to date, the largest known medical study so far of the Corona virus:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

Jinyintan Hospital is a Wuhan hospital for adults (ie, aged ≥14 years) specializing in infectious diseases. According to the arrangements put in place by the Chinese Government, adult patients were admitted centrally to the hospital from the whole of Wuhan without selectivity. The average age was 55.5 years, 67 males and 32 females. It looks as though Corona is tough on the elderly. In this set of cases, 50 patients had chronic diseases and 11 died with 4 patients still on ventilators at the end of the study. Individuals with compromised immune systems, lungs, liver, kidneys and hearts were understandably the most vulnerable.

Some data (also from the lancet) on the first 425 known infected from Corona virus show that the average incubation is 5.2 days. 5% had an incubation longer than 12.5 days. If we compare this data with the link below explaining running through a cluster of transmission cases in Germany:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ

We see that patients can be asymptomatic (no symptoms) for short periods, feel a bit rough and get over it, but be contagious the entire time even for days after getting better. In short, this is a disease that is starting to look like it’s easy on the young and healthy but hard on the old and sick and all indications are that if the young don’t take it seriously, they will become spreaders that will only further proliferate the disease.

#118 Figure it Out on 01.31.20 at 12:30 pm

“The Fed and the BOC only control rates as far as they are seen as trustworthy by the bond market. If the bond market gets a sniff of real inflation […] they will demand higher rates.”

I used to believe this. It was oft repeated, and it was true in the past. But I don’t believe it any more.

Japan has the highest government debt in the world, supposedly, but fully 1/2 of it is now sitting on the balance sheet of the BoJ. Ditto, to a lesser extent, at other central banks. And they also hold foreign government debt, trillions in total, in addition to their own.

In the private sector, an awful lot of bonds are on the balance sheets of insurance companies and pension plans — those managers are 1) investing other peoples’ money (only care about relative, not absolute return) and 2) can’t just decide bonds are too dear so they’re selling and investing in biotech startups.

Retail investors? Nope. The top three bond funds in the US have maybe $600 billion between them*, peanuts.

I suppose as defined benefit pensions wither away and are replaced by more fickle self-managed plans, there could be a bit of a shift, but it appears central banks are willing to do “whatever it takes.” The bond market ain’t what it used to be.

#119 Sold Out on 01.31.20 at 12:39 pm

#103 Sail away on 01.31.20 at 11:06 am
#97 Sold Out on 01.31.20 at 10:28 am

Hmm, I said: [etc…]

—————————-

You said lots of things.

Even, at one point, suggesting I was one of Aristotle’s excellent people.

Which, while flattering, seems a bit overly effusive.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To recap:

A. You used a fake quote.
B. The quote you used is attributed to alt-right/racist web sites
C. You were clearly unaware of A and B, and can’t let it go

#120 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 12:40 pm

Here is a very informative article that serves to show where (IMHO) the entire GTA will be a few decades from now:

https://www.inbrampton.com/brampton-now-has-more-low-income-neighbourhoods-than-ever

As I’ve said before, the GTA will eventually become a small collection of rich folks and a twisted sickly mass of transient low income folks. The middle class, and anyone else without the ability to live well in the GTA (but with the ability to leave it) will bail. It’s too expensive, and wages suck for 99% – it’s real simple, easy to understand math here.

105% increase in wealth polarization in Toronto? It’s no surprise, and totally predictable. Get ready for more.

This article also offers some great opportunities to “read between the lines” also.

#121 bill hilly on 01.31.20 at 1:07 pm

@#92 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 8:53 am
#4 T on 01.30.20 at 4:09 pm

Anecdotal, but a boots on the ground report. Take it for what it is. I take it as a sign of the times; those in debt are hurting, those without debt want it like their lives depend on [it].
____

That’s Toronto for you. Everyone is suffering from an inferiority complex. Everyone quaking with fear at the prospect of renting for life with no idea what to do about it.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in a downtown Toronto bank, but they’d surely hear me roaring with laughter all day, and I’d get the swatter.

You watch, if they can get a fiver for 2.5% in a few months, these goofs will be lining up, pushing and shoving trying to get in the door. Frantic to live under a mountain of debt and make banks, boomers, developers, not to mention City Hall, filthy rich.

Good grief, what a dump. No wonder anyone with brains is getting the hell out of there.
____________________________

LMAO, tranna really triggers you eh?

#122 TurnerNation on 01.31.20 at 1:35 pm

People must be frantically calling Gartho: where should I bury my silver bars?
Should I convert all my holdings into O-Pee-Chee hockey cards – would the weekend guys approve?
And so on.

#123 TF on 01.31.20 at 1:41 pm

Looks like past performance is not a guarantee of future gains.

Cue the weekend stay the course charts.

As the smart money liquidates/books profit from last year.

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 1:44 pm

#114 Tater on 01.31.20 at 12:16 pm

Far better to live in the sticks, with earning power so low the government has to give you cash to make sure your kids are taken care of, I guess.
___

Those Trudeau bux really, truly have been a great help in lifting my family out of poverty. Life is expensive and our potential annual earning power is only 260K.

We were wondering how we could ever afford to have kids. We’re so thankful for the unique progressive policies of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Handing out gobs of money to anyone with kids was a brilliant idea, I never would have thought of it.

Now, our bank account gets stuffed to the brim with thousands and thousands and thousands of tax free dollars. Every little bit helps.

Today, my kids have the option to enjoy brand new top of the line ATV’s and ride in brand new Sierra Denali trucks instead of the worn out 2 year old junkers we used to buy.

When Harper ran the show, I had to pay for all this stuff myself – that really sucked.

#125 Sail away on 01.31.20 at 1:49 pm

#119 Sold Out on 01.31.20 at 12:39 pm

To recap:
A. You used a fake quote.
B. The quote you used is attributed to alt-right/racist web sites
C. You were clearly unaware of A and B, and can’t let it go

———————————–

To recap:

Contagion services firm up 9% so far today. Still hoping for 20.

High five! Oh, sorry… [gloves on]… high five!

#126 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 1:49 pm

#121 bill hilly on 01.31.20 at 1:07 pm

LMAO, tranna really triggers you eh?
___

Us Hillbillies really like fishing.

I got three in the bucket already!

#127 MF on 01.31.20 at 1:56 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGh_zhbuJCA

-Cool interview with Patrick Bet-David (Valuetainment) with the author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad”. Garth won’t approve of this one lol:

Cliffs:

-The author thinks the US dollar will collapse
-He is a fan of Trump but thinks it won’t matter who wins.
-He thinks there will be a global depression, and Americans are delusional
-He thinks interest rates are too low and debt is too high
-He is shorting the stock market (US) and believes it will collapse
-He doesn’t believe in ETF’s..only real estate (rental properties), land, and precious metals

Ouch.

MF

Ask him how he feels about ‘personal appearance’ seminars at which he doesn’t appear. Sleazy. – Garth

#128 Sail away on 01.31.20 at 2:35 pm

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.20 at 11:32 am
79 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 7:21 am

What did you do with the $4M?
————————
That was my twin brother.

He moved back to Austria and opened a high end Dirndl boutique store.

He was always the smarter one.

———————–

My brothers and sisters think investing is easy. I gifted them cash for one Tesla share for each of my 17 nephews and nieces education funds in the spring.

One brother with 3 nephews put his kids’ cash into American Funds with his advisor instead, so the rest of us ridicule him mercilessly about missing the 200% gain. Loads of fun.

I guess if Tater’s right, that bro will have the last laugh. If Tater’s wrong, I get to keep chuckling.

#129 Sail away on 01.31.20 at 2:44 pm

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 1:44 pm
#114 Tater on 01.31.20 at 12:16 pm

Far better to live in the sticks, with earning power so low the government has to give you cash to make sure your kids are taken care of, I guess.

———————
Those Trudeau bux really, truly have been a great help in lifting my family out of poverty. Life is expensive and our potential annual earning power is only 260K.

———————

Hahaha

I picture an angry, animated baked potato fresh out of the oven, dancing around wearing boxing gloves with steam streaming from the fork holes, while IH stands behind with a knife, fork and bowl of sour cream.

#130 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 2:57 pm

#116 Mattl on 01.31.20 at 12:23 pm

… but if rates continue to stay low, these people willing to borrow and ultimately pay down their debt will be winners IMO
——

In the immortal, uhh… “word”, of the Spartan ephors to king Philip II of Macedon:

“if”

#131 jess on 01.31.20 at 3:06 pm

confirmed: Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms

the New England Journal of Medicine showing that infected people can transmit the virus before they develop symptoms.

In that study, there were five instances of asymptomatic transmission of the Wuhan virus in one cluster. A woman in Shanghai was infected by one of her parents, who had no symptoms; that woman flew to Germany and while she was asymptomatic transmitted the virus to two colleagues; one of those colleagues, while healthy, transmitted the virus to two more coworkers.

#132 Tater on 01.31.20 at 3:14 pm

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 1:44 pm
#114 Tater on 01.31.20 at 12:16 pm

Far better to live in the sticks, with earning power so low the government has to give you cash to make sure your kids are taken care of, I guess.
___

Those Trudeau bux really, truly have been a great help in lifting my family out of poverty. Life is expensive and our potential annual earning power is only 260K.

We were wondering how we could ever afford to have kids. We’re so thankful for the unique progressive policies of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Handing out gobs of money to anyone with kids was a brilliant idea, I never would have thought of it.

Now, our bank account gets stuffed to the brim with thousands and thousands and thousands of tax free dollars. Every little bit helps.

Today, my kids have the option to enjoy brand new top of the line ATV’s and ride in brand new Sierra Denali trucks instead of the worn out 2 year old junkers we used to buy.

When Harper ran the show, I had to pay for all this stuff myself – that really sucked.
———————————————————–

Well, if you were hitting your potential income you wouldn’t get any kid money. Sooo, congrats on underachieving?

I personally prefer to earn enough that I don’t qualify for government handouts. Guess that’s just pride.

#133 Penny Henny on 01.31.20 at 3:24 pm

#126 IHCTD9 on 01.31.20 at 1:49 pm
#121 bill hilly on 01.31.20 at 1:07 pm

LMAO, tranna really triggers you eh?
___

Us Hillbillies really like fishing.

I got three in the bucket already!

///////////////////

I got two yesterday

#134 Sail Away on 01.31.20 at 10:55 pm

#135 Tater on 01.31.20 at 3:14 pm

Well, if you were hitting your potential income you wouldn’t get any kid money. Sooo, congrats on underachieving?

I personally prefer to earn enough that I don’t qualify for government handouts. Guess that’s just pride.

———————————-

We all know that pride goeth before the fall…

I consider any government largess as my due. Dog knows they’ve taken a far, far larger due from me.