The panic

She lived a couple of doors away in our townhouse complex in mid-town Toronto. One day yellow CAUTION tape went up around her front entrance facing the common courtyard. In the underground parking garage the guy living beside us had some information. “SARS,” he said.

She was dead a week later.

That was 2003, and the last time anything like this coronavirus now flooding every newscast (along with a deceased basketball guy) was top of mind. Some people say the Chinese government’s unprecedented quarantine of 50 million people is beyond extreme. Others fear the authorities are still trying to cover up a pandemic. In the middle of a developing problem – and in a world where nothing’s remote anymore – nobody knows.

SARS was briefly terrifying. But the Toronto subways kept running. Nobody wore face masks. Ontario declared a state of emergency, but only hospitals were affected. In the end 44 people died in a city of six million. By comparison, about 3,500 are swept away each year by flu in Canada (eighty thousand Americans died of influenza in 2018). No headlines about that.

Well, investors have been taking few chances. The Dow opened 525 points lower on Monday, oil swooned and Chinese prospects dimmed along with the yuan. Stocks have been flirting with record highs of late, so risk is taken off the table quickly when uncertainty arrives. If you’re a day trader, this spike in volatility is what you live for. If you’re a normal person, though, what now? One terrified guy emailed me at midnight Sunday saying he was turning his paper assets into bars of silver. What a disaster that’ll turn out to be.

Well, here’s what we know. The virus is spreading and will continue to do so. Until it stops. Fewer than a hundred are dead globally. That may reach into the thousands. Perhaps it could be hundreds of thousands. In 1918 the Spanish Flu killed more than 20 million people after infecting a third of the world’s population. But that was then. Lousy, spotty health care. No vaccines. No global response. No containment. And a world exhausted and impoverished by WW1.

The new coronavirus could end up being like SARS. Unlikely to be worse, but there’s absolutely no telling. What we do know is history. As a Scotiabank report stated Monday about the SARS crisis: “Arguably the biggest economic lesson from that experience is that fear is the biggest risk to the outlook.” If the 2003 experience were repeated now, the bank figures, our economy could be slightly impacted and the biggest result might be a Bank of Canada rate cut to counter it.

The real issue is China. In a globalized world a plop by the No.2 economy would ripple across the world. It’s now the engine of the planet, like it or not. That’s why oil prices have dropped, anticipating a potential slowdown, along with copper, nickel and iron. No country, let alone the second-largest, can wall off 50 million people, extend national holidays, suspend tourism and shutter its financial markets for a week, without having an impact.

So, stocks down. Bonds prices up. Yields down. Oil down. Gold up. Risk off. And this week brings with it a host of corporate earnings reports plus central bank announcements. Yes, turn off BNN, even if Ryan is broadcasting. It’s all just noise. In fact street vets who’ve seen this kind of panic over and again call it an opportunity. Buy the dips, they say. We’re in a strong, fact-based uptrend with strong market momentum and this shall pass. Like SARS. Iran. Brexit. Hong Kong. Impeachment.

But for most people the best course of action is to do absolutely nothing. Certainly not go to cash. Or buy precious metals. Or a Glock. Or bury your retirement savings in a can in the garden (when it thaws). In fact make sure you’ve topped up the 2020 TFSA contribution, and start saving money for the annual RRSP deadline at the end of next month. If you have new money to buy assets with, a drop in major equity markets would make those ETFs even tastier. “It’s way too early for fear a global pandemic,” says one analyst. “Should it happen, however, we would see markets down 15%, give or take.”

Markets that soared 30% in 2019 and have continued that incredible climb this year are ripe for a pullback. What better excuse for profit-taking than some weird, animalistic, Twitter-hyped mutant Asian flu bug? It came unexpectedly. It will peter out. Meanwhile corporate profits are solid, central banks have been supportive, the US economy’s hot and everybody’s making bank.

Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix. And wash your hands a lot.

 

127 comments ↓

#1 NotLegalAdvice on 01.27.20 at 2:34 pm

Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix. And wash your hands a lot. – G.T.

Watch the Big Short Instead.

#2 Ubul on 01.27.20 at 2:46 pm

You can see every day (Asian) people wearing mask on the Toronto subway for years now. When did you take a ride last time?

The reference was to 2003. No masks then. – Garth

#3 Spectacle on 01.27.20 at 2:51 pm

Great short post today.

All the possible drama mentioned above, it will be most interesting to see how it actually does affect all of the Markets.

Any predictions from the steerage section?
My .38cents CAD says Nothing Burger ( Yes, buying opportunities of course).

#4 Doug t on 01.27.20 at 3:13 pm

I’m preppin for the zombie Apocalypse

#5 Sold Out on 01.27.20 at 3:16 pm

#74 and 75 on yesterday’s comments are pretty appalling.

Yes, now deleted. They got by me. Sorry. The poster in question pumps our racist, anti-Muslin, and violence-laded comments almost daily which, of course, are not published. They were so extreme several weeks ago that the RCMP anti-terrorism squad interviewed me and my webmaster and are now actively seeking this individual. – Garth

#6 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.27.20 at 3:20 pm

No worries. The Fed will snap a few fingers and produce a trillion dollars out of thin air and a warm fuzzy feeling will wash over the land. The Repo-Virus will save us.

#7 reynolds531 on 01.27.20 at 3:46 pm

A Glock is so impractical for the apocalypse. Too much plastic.

#8 BlogDog123 on 01.27.20 at 3:51 pm

The masks is a regional thing. You see that on the flight from/to Taiwan, even if you have a cold, you show up to the flight or work with the mask out of courtesy to not cough on your co-workers or fellow passengers…

Even when there is no outbreak.

#9 Mr Fundamental on 01.27.20 at 3:57 pm

Just like always, it’s TIME TO BUY. Maybe skip a few trips to Starbucks this month and throw an extra $100 into your TFSA index funds.

#10 Dog Thoughts on 01.27.20 at 3:59 pm

The human seems distracted. Lean on leg, paw on knee.

Now they know whatever it is, we are in this together.

#11 yvr_lurker on 01.27.20 at 4:02 pm

Too late. Re-watched Contagion again already this weekend. I don’t think this is the “big one”, but my fear is that one day some megladon virus will emerge from China that has an R-factor of 4 or more (4 new infected per one sick) that then spreads globally through our super-connected world. Hopefully, this is when I am retired and living on Galiano, Texada, or up the Sunshine coast away from the crowds. One key factor is the way that China deals with their barbaric live animal markets consisting of essentially any wild animal you want to eat. I saw this first hand years ago, and was repelled then. China needs to shut that all down. I don’t think Canada should not be pushing for closer ties with China (we can buy and sell some stuff. but absolutely no Huawei please… and cut back on the level of immigration).

#12 Stan Brooks on 01.27.20 at 4:03 pm

Wise words.

But I think right now it is the time to be cautious and humble and not to be bold.

Let’s wait for a month or two and then reassess but I am afraid the markets will be the last thing to worry about in the next little while.

There is plenty of information around already from very reliable sources – financial times, New York times etc., research it and make your own individual conclusion.

As for the economic impact, wait and see but nobody in Wuhan is working or going to school any time soon.

If the Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Saturday that the virus is spreading faster and poses a “grave threat” to the country. I better be shitting in my pants.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1

Let’s hope that he is wrong and the issue is magically resolved. I propose appointing our central bankers as advisers to the WHO, just lower the interest rates and voila, problem solved!

Cheers with my personal choice of disinfectant: Quality scotch.

#13 Lambchop on 01.27.20 at 4:04 pm

@#7 reynolds

But wouldn’t you rather have all that plastic? No rusting, plus one of the most reliable pistols out there. Less jamming, low maintenance.
Zombie guts are sticky and probably pretty hard on steel.

#14 G on 01.27.20 at 4:20 pm

re: Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix

To late I watched it last night. Netflix also has a new series out called, Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak. Only watch the first show so far.

re: No masks then.
I understand the N95 masks are all sold out presently for the average person. I hope the medical health care workers have enough supply for the long run if needed.
Are the manufactures in our country? China manufacturers can’t keep up with what they need as it is!

re: wash your hands, often with soap for minimum 20seconds, don’t forget to use soap between our fingers. And stop touching your face, it’s hard to do I know!

Heard the RO might actually be 3.8-4.0.
death rate might be higher than the SARS and Spanish flu. Can spread without showing symptoms for days unlike SARS. And get in through all mucous membranes like eyes.
Might damage hearth and shut down kidneys if you are affected badly, but not everyone is just like the seasonal flu I hope.

I hope it don’t get really bad like the movie, it is new, but if…
by KenDBerryMD
Chinese Coronavirus: What to Know & What to Do (2019-nCoV)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA5AbqlCHuc

What is Coronavirus? – Prof Simon 16min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98vLhV1kBig

Why might it be worse in China than they are letting on
Coronavirus – Inside info and discussion 1hr10min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Jan 27 CBC news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1B1jPGbamU

I hope for everyone it doesn’t get much worse, and mutates to be less contagious and harmful form, not more.

If China is quarantining many million person cities, there must be a reason??? I hope they didn’t miss the boat on timing to reduce the spread. And Canada does more sooner than later to control spread given you can spread it without showing a fever. Better safer sooner if it’s RO and severity is as high as some have suggested.

#15 Piano_Man87 on 01.27.20 at 4:25 pm

*Sips on his Corona at Panda Express*

#16 NoName on 01.27.20 at 4:26 pm

I remember SARS, in Jan of 2003 it was a 1st time I went home ticket was cheap and ticket for not having mandatory tire chains driving through Austria was cheaper than renting a tire chains form car rental company.

I remember like yesterday Helga t Munich airport asked me maybe you want dodge caravan instead of Opel, it comes automatic for same price. I declined politely. Tires on Opel were all season continental not bad not tereeble.

When I arrived home my mother asked me two things, “Name what did you do to your self, one vent to Canada two came back”. What brings me to the point life is good here. And that other thing SARS how bad it was.

After that it was all about her granddaughter, I wasn’t important any more. Outside frequent comments over meals about my body weight…

Mom put kaibash on dad drinking so every chance he got when or when she would take her granddaughter to parade her around, dad would say “Son how about one jagermeister just two of us.”

That is all I remember about SARS. Non event…

#17 Cristian on 01.27.20 at 4:26 pm

“And wash your hands a lot.”

Wrong advice. That’s why people who wash their hands a lot still get sick.
Correct advice: avoid touching mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands. A respiratory virus needs contact with a mucosa to enter the body.

Seriously? You wrote that? – Garth

#18 Stone on 01.27.20 at 4:28 pm

#2 Ubul on 01.27.20 at 2:46 pm
You can see every day (Asian) people wearing mask on the Toronto subway for years now. When did you take a ride last time?

The reference was to 2003. No masks then. – Garth

———

I guess I saw it differently in 2003 considering I was wearing one…in the subway. You must have missed me and all the others I saw who had one as well.

Went to pick up a prescription at the walk-in clinic today. I can say I wasn’t fashionable. Almost everyone wearing a mask. Most of the patients and without exception, all the staff. I felt a bit naked.

This isn’t something to play tough guy about. Glistening washboard abs won’t save you from this if you cross paths with the wrong person.

An ounce of prevention…

#19 NoName on 01.27.20 at 4:39 pm

In fact street vets who’ve seen this kind of panic over and again call it an opportunity. Buy the dips, they say. We’re in a strong, fact-based uptrend with strong market momentum and this shall pass. Like SARS. Iran. Brexit.

Brexit was great, I had some cash accumulated and very good chunk of it was put work.

I was thinking, never a good thing, many people are saying market is way over valued but I was thinking but some rules that were made decades or century ago.

Considering who fluid and fast events are now days maybe we are measuring it wrong, just a tough…

#20 Camille on 01.27.20 at 4:41 pm

Good post Mr. Turner. I won’t rebalance before June. I was verbally attacked yesterday by a friend for not panicking about Coronavirus. Said I would follow it day by day, which among other things made him angry. Said I was cold, and unfeeling. I care, but what can I do?

#21 LP on 01.27.20 at 4:41 pm

And wash your hands a lot.

***********************************
In 2003 during the SARS outbreak I worked in a building on the grounds of a hospital. The hospital circulated a directive that everyone (a) wash their hands often, not just at the usual times but also (b) sing all of the Happy Birthday song while doing so. The song lasts long enough for the hand-washing ritual to actually do its job.

To this day I cannot stop myself from humming the song (if I’m alone) or at least singing it in my head when in public.

#22 tkid on 01.27.20 at 4:48 pm

Pandemic on Netflix is a great series. I really recommend the first and third episodes.

#23 Mr Canada on 01.27.20 at 4:57 pm

Pull backs are good for the market and investors, and there is always some catalyst that causes this — hey, we are now back to where the DOW was on January 6 2020 and if you hold US equities, the C$ dropped today too.

#24 MF on 01.27.20 at 4:58 pm

#18 Stone on 01.27.20 at 4:28 pm

This^

I bought a box of N95 and will be wearing it.

Does it give 100% protection? No.

But it helps.

I can’t wear it at work though, which is too bad.

MF

#25 Paul Fromm on 01.27.20 at 5:05 pm

DELETED. The racist, terrorist poster is at it again. Here’s the IP: 2405:8100:8000:5ca1::69:1a48. – Garth

#26 Franco on 01.27.20 at 5:07 pm

For the people that have died or lost loved ones, this has been a disaster, big things always start small. Hoping that this will get snuffed out soon. One day and hopefully this is not the one, there will be something that will rise up and kill many people, but why worry about something you cannot control, let the experts deal with it and let’s all wash our hands often. The stock market will always recover and we have been through some dandy’s in the last century.

#27 Tater on 01.27.20 at 5:14 pm

#24 MF on 01.27.20 at 4:58 pm
#18 Stone on 01.27.20 at 4:28 pm

This^

I bought a box of N95 and will be wearing it.

Does it give 100% protection? No.

But it helps.

I can’t wear it at work though, which is too bad.

MF
——————————

Dork.

#28 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 5:17 pm

Per Kurt Vonnegut: “Nothing loves a mucous membrane like a venereal disease”

And flu it appears.

In investing news, a company in my portfolio that makes contamination protective equipment is up 100% in a week. Up 558% since 2009 entry, jumping on every panic. If I don’t die, this will be lucrative.

#29 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 5:23 pm

#11 yvr_lurker on 01.27.20 at 4:02 pm

Too late. Re-watched Contagion again already this weekend. I don’t think this is the “big one”

———————————-

How would you know if this is it? Get Alpha Pro Tech protective equipment for yourself and everyone you know. They make the best gear. Pass it on.

#30 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 5:26 pm

#24 MF on 01.27.20 at 4:58 pm

I bought a box of N95 and will be wearing it.

—————————–

Good thinking MF. Hopefully, you got this one:

http://www.alphaprotech.com/productDocs/N95M.pdf

#31 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 5:34 pm

Chris Martenson thinks it could be a lot worse than the Chinese are letting on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2GZg1qzohY

He’s a doomer but also a Ph.D. so take it with a grain of salt.

And it appears it has already made it to Toronto:

https://www.660citynews.com/2020/01/27/national-lab-confirms-coronavirus-in-toronto-man-test-results-on-others-pending-health-officials/

Strangely, they are still letting flights out of Wuhan into all destinations and just testing passengers for fever. This is woefully inadequate as unlike SARS, coronavirus is asymptomatic (you can be infectious for up to 5 days before developing any symptoms at all, whereas SARS was not infectious in the incubation period so it was a lot easier to spot. This is the one most important factor that could set this outbreak apart from SARS. Although the CDC disputes this but Chinese doctors say it is true.
Let’s hope the CDC is correct but even if they are you can still be infected and not show symptoms for a few days.)

Considering how the Chinese are reacting, one would tend to think they are understating the problem. They have a travel ban to Wuhan (except for flights), Beijing has implemented a travel ban and closed all the schools, Hong Kong has a travel ban, 60 million people affected in all. Factories are even shutting down. Japan has closed their borders.

I’m thinking it’s probably an over-reaction at this point but the Chinese measures worry me a bit.

Oh and the rumors are true that n95 masks are sold out on Amazon:

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=n95+mask&crid=3N77KW9IKRJQB&sprefix=n95%2Caps%2C363&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_3

That didn’t take long but it goes to show that the prepper motto still holds, you have to prepare before something happens. Once it’s on the news it’s too late.

At this point I think Garth is right and we should expect that the SARS outbreak is the planning scenario so this should be contained. The worst case scenario is probably the schools and offices close down for 2 weeks. That could be bad for those 50% of people who live paycheck to paycheck as they won’t be paying the mortgage that month. I’m not sure that could kick off a recession or not but it can’t be good.

#32 Linda on 01.27.20 at 5:35 pm

As Garth correctly points out in today’s post, the annual influenza virus whacks a heck of a lot more people than most of the much publicized viral menaces of the day. This doesn’t mean one shouldn’t pay attention & in fact the emphasis on washing one’s hands etc. is an excellent reminder of the value of practicing basic hygiene for overall public health.

This new kid on the virus block may or may not develop into something that reduces the human population by a considerable amount. I note that the CDC hadn’t pressed the panic button on this virus the other day. Haven’t yet seen a headline indicating that had changed.

I also note that the government panic button tends to be pressed when young, healthy adults are affected. The cash cow of the tax revenue herd will definitely elicit a rapid response should it be threatened. That in no way implies the government would not promptly respond to a viral outbreak that affected only the elderly, but I suspect the panic would be far less. Despite the natural grief one might expect should that occur, the brutal reality is that the rapid demise of a large swathe of the 60+ crowd would result in a much lower outlay of public funds from programs such as OAS/GIS.

Meanwhile, keep calm & wash your hands.

#33 TheYoungGreek on 01.27.20 at 5:39 pm

Took some profits on Apple today. Was up over 400% on it and it had climbed to over 30% of my portfolio. Not worried about the company, just wanted to raise some cash in case Mr. Market goes on sale. What do you guys think about VGRO as a way to diversify away from the 50 or so stocks I own?

#34 Jonathan Sheppard on 01.27.20 at 5:43 pm

DELETED

#35 MF on 01.27.20 at 5:50 pm

#27 Tater on 01.27.20 at 5:14 pm

Dork

-I heard that.

MF

#36 Todd on 01.27.20 at 5:58 pm

#25. Paul Fromm was a teacher who was fired for promoting hate. This is what I find laughable and ironic given that he is a “white supremacist”

Frederick Paul Fromm, known as Paul Fromm, is a Canadian white supremacist and perennial political candidate. He has described himself as a “white nationalist, a populist, a traditionalist, with libertarian leanings”. Wikipedia
Born: January 3, 1949 (age 71 years), Bogota, Colombia

He was born in Colombia. Yet he doesn’t like immigrants.

Nom de plume. – Garth

#37 Annek on 01.27.20 at 6:07 pm

In 2003, most Chinese restaurants were empty. People avoided them like the plague for fear of SARS. Businesses lost money.
We used to go to the Chinese mall on Fridays for Chinese food and those days the halls echoed with lack of people.
If this gets worse, I can see the people living in condos ( where they share the air ) a bit nervous. I wonder if this can change the condo craze. I would hate to be living in one right now.

#38 NoName on 01.27.20 at 6:08 pm

Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix -GT

I recommend we go “old school” get some popcorn and do Outbreak from mid 90s, Rene Russo and Rainman is in it.

#39 Nancy Cockburn on 01.27.20 at 6:21 pm

Hi Garth, This is off topic but I don’t know if you have seen this. We live in Victoria and are seriously thinking of leaving. We just sold our house for 1.3 million (almost paid for) and were going to buy acreage and build but have seriously decided against it. Now after living in Paris, London and New York we are really shocked by this.

https://www.vicnews.com/news/victoria-ranks-as-16th-least-affordable-city-in-the-world/?fbclid=IwAR2V211eRYBnz_1qE1xEMP_wa2VNa4NZgI8kCwea7_BJpcDNouZF42vzK6M

#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:35 pm

#28 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 5:17 pm
Per Kurt Vonnegut: “Nothing loves a mucous membrane like a venereal disease”

And flu it appears.

In investing news, a company in my portfolio that makes contamination protective equipment is up 100% in a week. Up 558% since 2009 entry, jumping on every panic. If I don’t die, this will be lucrative.
——————-
I think Bob Dylan wrote a song about people like you.

#41 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 6:41 pm

RIP Kobe, a great man.

#42 Dog Breath on 01.27.20 at 6:43 pm

These paper face masks are worst than useless against a pandemic virus. I’m going to be wearing a Hazmat suit to work! It’s time to panic!!

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:51 pm

#40 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 6:41 pm
RIP Kobe, a great man.
—————
A great basketball player.
Not a great man.

#44 Captain Uppa on 01.27.20 at 6:52 pm

#18 Stone on 01.27.20 at 4:28 pm
#2 Ubul on 01.27.20 at 2:46 pm
You can see every day (Asian) people wearing mask on the Toronto subway for years now. When did you take a ride last time?

The reference was to 2003. No masks then. – Garth

———

I guess I saw it differently in 2003 considering I was wearing one…in the subway. You must have missed me and all the others I saw who had one as well.

Went to pick up a prescription at the walk-in clinic today. I can say I wasn’t fashionable. Almost everyone wearing a mask. Most of the patients and without exception, all the staff. I felt a bit naked.

This isn’t something to play tough guy about. Glistening washboard abs won’t save you from this if you cross paths with the wrong person.

An ounce of prevention…

—————————

A lot of people wore masks on the TTC during SARS. I was but a fresh faced university kid back then. I survived, if you couldn’t tell.

You must have been riding a subway in an alternate universe. In 2003 face masks were a total novelty in Toronto. In any case, they seem to be more cosmetic than effective. – Garth

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:56 pm

Thank God for global institutions like WHO.

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.20 at 7:18 pm

@#40 Andrew
“a great man…”
+++++

he was a great athlete.

As for the “great man”…….how soon we forget.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-01-26/what-happened-kobe-bryant-sexual-assault-case

#47 FreeBird on 01.27.20 at 7:25 pm

‘Coronaviruses are an extremely common cause of colds and other upper respiratory infections.’

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-new-coronavirus-what-we-do-and-dont-know-2020012518747

It’s the amount and how fast they spread that makes it dangerous to it’s host incl humans. Some like the type in Wuhan are originate from a cross-species transmission, ie mad-cow, SARS etc. As of today <3000 dx cases globally and <100 confirmed deaths esp by those who are very vulnerable to any virus or infection. What’s making this form tougher to control is infected kids have been found in China who are asymptomatic/showing no signs.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.sciencenews.org/article/first-case-new-wuhan-coronavirus-confirmed-united-states/amp

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

#48 Raging Ranter on 01.27.20 at 7:33 pm

I wonder if people are ever going to realize that wearing a surgical mask protect others from YOU. It does a very poor job protect you from others. That’s why the doctor’s office has a sign saying “If you are sick or coughing please ask reception for a mask.” They don’t ask others to put on the mask, they tell the one who is already sick to do so.

A surgeon wears a mask so he doesn’t breathe or spit into your open wound when he asks for the forceps.

#49 akashic record on 01.27.20 at 7:39 pm

Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix.

No need to watch fiction, when there is reality.

Just listened to CBC radio, a doctor reporting in an interview that as of now their front line general health clinic (for immigrants and refugees) did not receive any protocol and and more importantly, they did not receive any protective supply, including masks, eyeglasses. He was trying to get some from HOME DEPOT (!) on the weekend, just to realize that he was pretty much late to the game. He was really upset, “we didn’t learn anything from SARS”.

Sounded more surreal than any related conspiracy theory.

#50 Shawn on 01.27.20 at 7:39 pm

Once again the FED funds and the BOC overnight rates are higher than 75% of the yield curve.

Policy errors will be corrected.

More easing ahead.

#51 Shawn Allen on 01.27.20 at 7:40 pm

Hypocrisy Abounds

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:51 pm
#40 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 6:41 pm
RIP Kobe, a great man.
—————
A great basketball player.
Not a great man.

***********************************
Not like the great Ponzi.

Who the heck is Ponzi to judge Kobe? And to do so at this time. Disgusting.

#52 FreeBird on 01.27.20 at 7:52 pm

Also not money related but may help. Wash hands and or use 70% alcohol based sanitizer (rub in). Wash for 20 sec (say the alphabet or happy birthday 2x). Easy. As back up during cold/flu season (now) swap out all hand towels/face cloths daily. Use hot or add hydrogen peroxide to wash but I’d rather spend a bit more and kill the bugs. Change out toothbrush at first sign of bug and again when feeling better. Learned all this from mom and friends in medical field incl ER nurses (they don’t play). Stress weakens our immune system so relax and watch or read something funny with a glass of beer/wine.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IisgnbMfKvI

https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/when-how-handwashing.html

#53 Apocalypse2020 on 01.27.20 at 7:52 pm

Now just imagine a convergence of multiple Black Swans like this one coming together.

Worsening coronavirus.

Trumpeachment.

Iran.

Iraq.

Russia.

Israel.

Climate crises.

Economic strife from too much debt.

Strikes and lockouts.

Layoffs.

Government debt collapse.

Food supply disruption.

See it coming clearly, with 20/20 vision.

PREPARE

Do you get invited out much? Might help. – Garth

#54 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 7:56 pm

Bitcoin…the new global macro instrument on the block. In reaction to the spike in the VIX, has awoken and is back above $9000. Keep ignoring until you knew it all along.

#55 Etfs or stocks on 01.27.20 at 7:57 pm

Hi garth, I read yesterday’s post by Sinan, how much should a person have in a all stock portfolio? I think previously you had said atleast 1 million? I own lots of stocks that xiu has so dont know if I should see all my stocks and just buy that, what do you think?
Thanks
R

#56 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 8:08 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:35 pm
#28 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 5:17 pm

—————————–

I think Bob Dylan wrote a song about people like you.

—————————–

Cool

#57 Big Bucks on 01.27.20 at 8:12 pm

People forget very quickly that the Dow was at 6600 in March 2009(not even 11 years ago) and 2 weeks ago was just shy of 30,000.We could see a 55-60% correction and it would still be 13-14,000 or doubling your money in 11 years.Caution is very prudent in 2020 and into 2021—we’ve come a long way in a decade.

#58 MF on 01.27.20 at 8:13 pm

4 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 7:56 pm

Okay we will. Never wanted to invest in something alongside drug dealers, warlords, pirates, criminals, drug addicts, and novices anyways.

Also don’t care about the endless stream of fake “I made x amount of millions” comments either.

MF

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.20 at 8:17 pm

@#51 Shawn Allen
“Hypocrisy abounds”

******

Pot meet Kettle.
A sports “hero”.

Remember the News conference after the rape charges?When Kobe was with his wife…and he admitted to ……..adultery?

His wife sat there livid …but she was wearing a brand new $4 million dollar , 8 carat “apology” ring her husband had given her.
Cheaper than a divorce I suppose…

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dna-evidence-the-accusers-story-and-the-half-confession

A great athlete….yes.
An admitted adulterous husband….yes.
A great man….? Not in my definition of the term.

#60 yvr_lurker on 01.27.20 at 8:19 pm

#29
How would you know if this is it? Get Alpha Pro Tech protective equipment for yourself and everyone you know. They make the best gear. Pass it on.

————————-
No reports yet of the infected dying off quickly (like in Contagion where they start foaming at the mouth). I am not pressing any panic button. The big one will be something like when a quickly acting “flesh-eating-type disease” merges and mutates with a SARS-type coronovirus. Think of a spuer-quick new meningitis strain. When this happens, we should all head for the backwoods.

China needs to shut down their barbaric live animal markets where unknown diseases can cross the species
barrier and mutate into something horrific… like it did with AIDS and primates in the Congo (which now everyone seems to have forgotten).

While they are at it, China can also put a halt to the trade in animal body parts for “mediciine”, stop illegal importation of ivory (and incentivizing the killing of elephants, tigers, rhinos, turtles, etc…). Moreover, how about improving on their well-document abuse of Uigurs, Tibetans, and others they consider dissidents.

Begs the question why Canada should think it is reasonable to join forces with Huawei, when their Gov’t which has such a heavy hand in the affairs of so-called “private companies” readily treats others and animals witch such little respect. We can be “friends” from afar, but not neighbors.

#61 Treasure Island CEO - 121,024,542.88 Offshore on 01.27.20 at 8:26 pm

“It came unexpectedly.”

Yes it did Garth. Just like every black swan event, nobody saw it coming.

It doesn’t matter how much you wash your hands. Timing of hand washing is more important along with wearing eye goggles.

The Irish dude trending on youtube shows from the inside what the lock down is like.

The hits are adding up against China who is already in a fragile state. Won’t take much for the house of cards to come crumbling down and then we can really find out what the leverage system in like in China where they have blown out debt rations to unimaginable levels.

The only question is how much is the Fed going to give us to stem this and keep the bull firing, since there is nothing else holding up markets.

#62 Sail away on 01.27.20 at 8:26 pm

#49 akashic record on 01.27.20 at 7:39 pm
Just don’t watch ‘Contagion’ tonight on Netflix.

Just listened to CBC radio, a doctor reporting in an interview that as of now their front line general health clinic (for immigrants and refugees) did not receive any protocol and and more importantly, they did not receive any protective supply, including masks, eyeglasses. He was trying to get some from HOME DEPOT (!) on the weekend, just to realize that he was pretty much late to the game.

———————————-

He should go to Alpha Pro Tech. Excellent products!

http://www.alphaprotech.com

#63 Stone on 01.27.20 at 8:30 pm

#44 Captain Uppa on 01.27.20 at 6:52 pm
#18 Stone on 01.27.20 at 4:28 pm
#2 Ubul on 01.27.20 at 2:46 pm
You can see every day (Asian) people wearing mask on the Toronto subway for years now. When did you take a ride last time?

The reference was to 2003. No masks then. – Garth

———

I guess I saw it differently in 2003 considering I was wearing one…in the subway. You must have missed me and all the others I saw who had one as well.

Went to pick up a prescription at the walk-in clinic today. I can say I wasn’t fashionable. Almost everyone wearing a mask. Most of the patients and without exception, all the staff. I felt a bit naked.

This isn’t something to play tough guy about. Glistening washboard abs won’t save you from this if you cross paths with the wrong person.

An ounce of prevention…

—————————

A lot of people wore masks on the TTC during SARS. I was but a fresh faced university kid back then. I survived, if you couldn’t tell.

You must have been riding a subway in an alternate universe. In 2003 face masks were a total novelty in Toronto. In any case, they seem to be more cosmetic than effective. – Garth

———

The power of belief can do wonders for the soul.

Are you telling me that the face masks worn by the medical professionals in hospitals are bogus? Why the hell are the doctors and nurses wearing them then? What does that say about the ineptitude of our 1st world top tier health care system if that’s the case? Can I ever trust a doctor again? Was that colonoscopy really necessary?

#64 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 8:34 pm

#37 Annek

Wait… what?? Condos share air? You can’t even build a compliant basement suite unless it does not share air with the upper floor and has a 1 hour fire rating (a fire won’t go up or down for 1 hour, 3/4 inch drywall is the key here). That’s why most condos (and compliant basement suites) use water radiant heating. Or electric. I am sure there are older units that do share air but this is not up to code now. Hasn’t been for a long time. I don’t even think hotel rooms are allowed to share air, which is why those air-conditioners that stick out of the wall are so popular with hotel/motels. Heating, cooling, and fresh air are all handled by that noisy little unit under the window.

There are 3 main reasons that “shared air” was phased out. #1 smoking and other smells people might find noxious like spicy foods. #2 you can’t share air and have independent temperature control. So on #2 if you are in the basement suite it might be quite cold and dark but the thermostat is upstairs where it is warm and sunny. No heat in the basement with shared air. This can happen in condos as well where the south side of the building might be picking up a lot of sunshine and either be too hot or too cold whereas the north side doesn’t need any HVAC going on. #3 is fire resistance. you want to give everybody as much time as possible to escape before the fire goes through the air ducts. Which, yes it will.

Some fancy hotels do not have the air-conditioners sticking out the side, especially high rise buildings. So what they have instead is cooled/heated water going to radiators, most of which will be in the ceiling and circulate air. But they circulate your own air with some fresh air inserted and some stale air exhausted. They don’t, if they are up to code, hot-box all the neighboring units with pot smoke if there happens to be a youth sports team staying in nearby units. You only get a bit of fresh air and heated or cooled water. It could be the case that the units share water but that is on the other side of the heat exchanger so it won’t affect your air.

There are a lot of practices that occurred in the past and to some extent still occur today in what is termed “non-compliant” suites. Shared air and heat is one of them. But you cannot build a compliant suite and have shared air. Windows are another. Lots of people used to suite their basement and not put in proper windows (expensive, after all), but the law now is that all bedrooms whether upstairs or downstairs, suite or not, must have a window that can be escaped through for fire reasons. Heck even permanent beds in an RV must have escape windows. My RV has a main bed in the front and a bunk in the back, both have escape windows. But I have seen many non-compliant suites that do not.

“Shared air” is not a thing unless you are in a non-compliant suite or a really old condo. Fire regulations snuffed that out. And smokers. Something to thank them for, aside from dying before they cost the medical system too much for nothing.

#65 Grunt on 01.27.20 at 8:37 pm

I recall SARS decimated Toronto hospitality for about a month.. When the all-clear sounded the cities hotel staff were all jubilant (and relieved for their jobs.) For a back-to-normal librarian’s convention after all the cancellations.

Psst.. I heard relations of the 1st coronavirus patients live in a condo in the lower Sherbourne/Lake.. shut up, shut up! Not too far from the buried remains of Mr Knapp’s Roller Boat… A potential “condo poker” Greenland hope don’t extend into their site.

#66 akashic record on 01.27.20 at 8:43 pm

#48 Raging Ranter

Depends on the mask. The mask patients can pick up in the doctors office are not N95 or better surgical masks what doctors use in surgery, designed to create a seal around the face and they filter out particles the size of viruses, bacteria.

#67 Wayneo on 01.27.20 at 8:53 pm

Thanks for those reassuring words, Garth. I feel better already, “Dad”.

#68 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 8:53 pm

#51 Shawn Allen

Any loss of life from an accident is to be remorsed. But Kobe was probably using a safer form of transportation than if he would have rode in a car. The number of people that die in car accidents every year is up there with the flu. However, because he was a beloved celebrity, it made the news. If my helicopter or motorcycle ever goes down, I doubt you will hear about it. Nonplused just won’t be commenting anymore. It’ll have about as much impact as when someone “unfriends” or “mutes” you on FaceBook. Chances are you won’t notice.

Air travel is still the safest way to go per mile. Accidents do happen though. RIP Kobe and the others.

#69 Cowtown Cowboy on 01.27.20 at 8:54 pm

Maybe the Stones can play again..hard to believe they’re still around!

And Garth, that’s. not an IP address ☝️

Of course it is, run through a blender. – Garth

#70 reynolds531 on 01.27.20 at 9:16 pm

#13 lambchop

Plastic guns don’t like the cold. I just bought an old surplus Beretta 92 for about $400. Unfortunately with our gun laws I can’t wear it to the annual nakitomi towers Christmas party.

Points if you laugh at my lame joke.

#71 n1tro on 01.27.20 at 9:24 pm

I bought some ZUE today. Kids at work bought N95 masks. Time will tell who is wiser.

When I explained to the kids the N95 masks were only partially effective because the virus can enter their eyes, the silence was golden.

#72 Apocalypse2020 on 01.27.20 at 9:28 pm

There might be good investment prospects with Netflix, as hundreds of millions may be housebound, too afraid to venture out. And shorting airlines, hotels and other travel-related industries should produce gains.

Then invest the profits in well-preserved foodstuffs and other things including remote real estate. (The value of a secondhand, functional but cheap live-aboard sailboat may be tremendous in the near future as gasoline and electricity may become less accessible)

#73 crazyfox on 01.27.20 at 9:44 pm

#31 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 5:34 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/us/coronavirus-orange-county/index.html

This CNN story came out January 22nd… 23rd according to matching the numbers from enwiki (not fond of CNN changing their reporting date as always current on their website):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Point is, “The incubation period (time from exposure to developing symptoms) of the virus is between 2 and 14 days and it remains contagious during this time.[7][8] Symptoms include fever, coughing and breathing difficulties and it can be fatal.”

The enwiki link is quite detailed and daily updated with references so it’s worth paying attention to in following Corona’s progress.

Comparing this to the Spanish flu:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

It’s estimated that anywhere between 50 to 100 million people died or somewhere between 3 to 5% of the world population died from Spanish flu. It’s difficult to put a specified total number on it since it happened nearly a century ago. It’s also difficult to say how many people were exposed to the virus, but percentages of the range of death from infection indicate the Spanish flu was a deadly global pandemic killing 20% of those exposed to the virus (of all ages and immune health).

Comparing this to the genetic markers of today’s Novel Corona virus with 80 deaths from 2886 confirmed cases:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)

Indicates this virus is not comparable with a 00.00277% death rate percentage at least, at this early stage. Considering these death rates by themselves (aside from organ damage, mainly lungs), we are looking at a strong flu that picks off the immune compromised and elderly (mainly elderly and already disease inflicted are most at risk).

In other words? No need for panic. The virus likely will likely mutate but the chances of it becoming a deadly virus that kills all ages and states of health like the Spanish Flu are quite low:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

What we are looking at with Corona is a serious flu bug. The Swine flu or H1N1 was declared as a pandemic in 2010 and dirt napped 18,000 in 2009. in 2015, H1N1 ghosted 31,000 in India with small outbreaks here and there since then.

Now… if I had to hazard a guess, Corona will not live up to H1N1. Even if it does, in comparison to other ways this world can “86” you, its still a yawner. If there is a virus to fear out there, its a variant of the Spanish flu like H5N1 or bird flu with their Cytokine storms. If H5N1 becomes easily transmittable, its a deadly killer and alarm is more than justified, buy a few boxes of masks, up your personal hygiene etc., but never panic as panic is mainly driven by fear of the unknown and we know more than we used to. (but note: still no vaccine for H5H1)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1

Btw Nonplused, for future reference, you would do well to know population pyramids:

https://www.valuewalk.com/2017/09/animation-population-pyramids-10-largest-countries/

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.20 at 9:48 pm

@#71 reynolds Wrap.
“Points if you laugh at my lame joke…”
++++

Yippie Ki-Yay mofo

#75 Niagara Region on 01.27.20 at 10:09 pm

The Wall Street Journal reports that there is a global slowdown in house purchasing:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-risk-to-world-economy-synchronized-housing-slowdown-11580121001

#76 WUL on 01.27.20 at 10:28 pm

Garth,

Your financial advice is top shelf, but frankly, I really only come here to hear from the epidemiologists in the comment section. Life savers, all.

WUL

#77 Tom from Mississauga on 01.27.20 at 10:37 pm

The real news was GM making an electric pickup truck in Detroit. It won’t have a engine and transmission from St Catherine’s and won’t be fueled from Alberta. Canada really needs a plan if this electric vehicle thing really takes off.

#78 n1tro on 01.27.20 at 10:42 pm

#60 yvr_lurker on 01.27.20 at 8:19 pm

China needs to shut down their barbaric live animal markets where unknown diseases can cross the species
barrier and mutate into something horrific… like it did with AIDS and primates in the Congo (which now everyone seems to have forgotten).

While they are at it, China can also put a halt to the trade in animal body parts for “mediciine”, stop illegal importation of ivory (and incentivizing the killing of elephants, tigers, rhinos, turtles, etc…). Moreover, how about improving on their well-document abuse of Uigurs, Tibetans, and others they consider dissidents.

Begs the question why Canada should think it is reasonable to join forces with Huawei, when their Gov’t which has such a heavy hand in the affairs of so-called “private companies” readily treats others and animals witch such little respect. We can be “friends” from afar, but not neighbors.
———
Easy there. Some may mistakenly think you hate Chinese people for being Chinese. While it’s easy to point to the meat market “news” and play the assume game, the two events may not be related but just conflated.

How did HIV cross the species barrier again? Africans eating monkeys? Having sex with them? Or was it some poor soul who got bit and then transmitted it?

What about mad cow? Farmers should stop their barbaric feeding of sick/dead animals to other animals right?

Ebola…. must be hose Africans eating all them mud pies.

#79 crazyfox on 01.27.20 at 10:43 pm

Indicates this virus is not comparable with a 00.00277% death rate percentage at least, at this early stage. – crazyfox

My bad, didn’t read the calculator right, latest update for Jan 27th: 100 dead from 4515 known cases is not .00277% but 02.2214%. This is much worse than a typical bad flu. Because the incubation rate without symptoms ranges from 2 to 14 days, there could be as much as 30x higher cases than reported and transmission will be next to impossible to track and contain like SARS was.

To compare with H1N1: CDC estimate of global H1N1 pandemic deaths since 2009: 284,000. These estimates ranged from 0.002% to 0.013% for children, 0.018% to 0.159% for those aged 18 to 64, and 0.090 to 0.308% for seniors. The authors devised a way to adjust for differences in the risk of respiratory-disease death between high- and low-income countries.

A death rate at greater than 2% and likely to be a global pandemic since it spreads for potentially up to 2 weeks before symptoms occur with numbers growing by 1.5 has all the numbers for a potential global pandemic. No doubt, if this goes global it will definitely hurt the global economy without question.

Apologies everyone for the earlier comment!

#80 Doug t on 01.27.20 at 10:45 pm

OMG WTF LMAO in 2018 deaths by the regular FLU in the USA amounted to 80,000 = you people buying masks make me laugh

#81 Reality is stark on 01.27.20 at 11:02 pm

The sad reality is that people in this country have a conniption if the stock market loses 30% of it’s value. When that happens you are normally into a decade of hell.
What they forget is that the Liberal perpetual deficit spending will result in a guaranteed 30% reduction of your wealth as they will be forced to tax you at all levels of government.
It makes me laugh at how stupid the average Canadian is. They panic over a potential loss but are nonchalant about guaranteed losses.

#82 crazyfox on 01.27.20 at 11:16 pm

Disease death rates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

Current death rate of Corona is greater than 2%.

Couple this with the rate of spread at 1.5x daily or higher:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

With reports like this (won’t stop with warmer weather):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO_XC3jI2c4

China was wise to quarantine when they did (numbers at bottom of link):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.20 at 11:29 pm

@#65 Blunt
“Psst.. I heard relations of the 1st coronavirus patients live in a condo in the lower Sherbourne/Lake.. shut up, shut up! Not too far from the buried remains of Mr Knapp’s Roller Boat… A potential “condo poker” Greenland hope don’t extend into their site….”
++++

Rambling , disjointed, ( ha ha “joint”, get it?)conspiracy theorum.
Hitting the pot a little early this evening arent we Grunt?

#84 Dr V on 01.28.20 at 12:00 am

39 Nancy – shocked by what? Vic has been that way for
awhile. Remember this is a price to income ratio. The world cities you mention could actually be more expensive, but incomes are higher.

And this isn’t a “global” survey. Mainly anglophone countries with Hong Kong thrown in.

#85 Genesis II on 01.28.20 at 12:09 am

This coronavirus probably the Black Swan that triggers a significant decline in stocks. Real or imagined, fear is fear; positive feedback loops build quickly before everyone notices. I expect 15-20% drop in the market pretty much a given at this point.
Off to watch some Netflix…

#86 Long-Time Lurker on 01.28.20 at 12:10 am

Johns Hopkins University
@JohnsHopkins

An online dashboard built by @JHUSystems is tracking the spread of the #coronavirus outbreak. The dashboard is updated regularly with data from @WHO, @CDCgov, and others to illustrate how the virus is spreading in China and beyond. #nCoV2019

https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkins/status/1221590393558532097

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

#87 Chimingin on 01.28.20 at 12:17 am

I was a public health emergency manager for 8 years, and worked during H1N1 and several other regional outbreaks. Most people do not have a clue how to use personal protective equipment like masks; N95s aren’t really useful in a situation of close contact unless you are fit-tested. But nobody ever reads the manual, so to speak, so there will be any number of useful idiots out there thinking they are covered, contaminating themselves when they don’t handle it properly, and then wondering why it spreads…

#88 Barb on 01.28.20 at 12:38 am

And stop shaking hands…forever.

Just politely say you don’t want to give them YOUR germs.
Nobody’s offended that way.

#89 Dragonslayer on 01.28.20 at 2:10 am

People who are scheming and plotting investment opportunities from this virus are sickening.

Have you no decency?

#90 Ramming Rhonda on 01.28.20 at 2:11 am

The level of panic depends on the type of portfolio holdings you have. Many stocks went up yesterday. I was hoping there’d be a general decline, but it wasn’t that. Good stocks paying dividends weren’t at issue. Too bad, I wanted to be a greedy Corona Pig and buy buy buy. I’m not sure I’d buy the first dip, the government is lying through their teeth. I’m selling nothing, yields can only go up when prices go down.

#91 Nonplused on 01.28.20 at 2:47 am

#73 crazyfox

Not going to argue with you your facts seem well researched. However it is a natural human tendency when they see the grass moving but there is no wind to run or climb the trees, and quickly. Monkeys too of course. It is better to falsely identify a lion than to falsely not identify one.

#92 Ustabe on 01.28.20 at 6:24 am

#76 WUL on 01.27.20 at 10:28 pm

Garth,

Your financial advice is top shelf, but frankly, I really only come here to hear from the epidemiologists in the comment section. Life savers, all.

WUL

The breadth of knowledge is unparalleled, its the depth I’m worried about.

#93 NoName on 01.28.20 at 6:31 am

@ Nonplused and CrazyFox

Rate of spreed was always the problem not mortality
rate. Fear was that ncov doest join a list of rotating flue that come and goes every year. You dont quorentine 60m people if its not serious…

How you not gonna argue with death rate of 00.0027% when death rate is 2.7%, sars was 8.9% or as per fox 00.0089%. I never in my life ever sow two zeroz before dot generated buy machine…

To many zeroz to accidental mistake you lot smarter than that imho…

#94 technical analysis on 01.28.20 at 7:00 am

the simple fact of the matter is that the market (SPX) was excessively overbought and sentiment was the at a 9 year high. the market was going to correct no matter what.

PEs do not support the statement the market is ‘excessively overbought’. Overly exuberant, maybe. – Garth

#95 MF on 01.28.20 at 8:00 am

79 crazyfox on 01.27.20 at 10:43

Correct. The mortality rate is much higher than a regular or bad flu, but not high enough that it will self limit itself by killing all its hosts (like Ebola).

This is the fear.

An ever present reservoir of hosts, coupled with high transmissibility, and a longish incubation period warrant all the fear and attention imo.

I expect a protracted outbreak. Total containment is impossible/very difficult at this point. China is doing the right thing but they waited to long. Stocks will be negatively impacted for sure. How can they not be?

MF

#96 technical analysis on 01.28.20 at 8:01 am

PEs do not support the statement the market is ‘excessively overbought’. Overly exuberant, maybe. – Garth
___________________________________________

weekly momentum Garth. this is technical analysis, not funnymental analysis. weekly momentum is historically overbought. the market is as overbought now as it was in Jan 2018. it needs some weeks to stabilize

#97 G. on 01.28.20 at 8:01 am

@raging ranter

Hahahahaha you made my day there bro, with this comment.

With all this discussion about facemasks, people wearing facemasks on the subway, etc., etc… it honestly never occurred to me that people were wearing masks to PROTECT THEMSELVES. Hahahaha this whole time I thought the facemask people were being good samaritans, not wanting to get other people sick…

………

We haven’t heard too much about coronovirus at the small rural hospital where I work. All I can say is the people who come in with respiratory symptoms, they wear a mask…. UNTIL I COME AND SEE THEM and then they remove it because “it’s uncomfortable and ao they can talk to me better”, as if I want their illness… those people amaze me.

#98 MF on 01.28.20 at 8:08 am

71 n1tro on 01.27.20 at

In this situation, “partial effectiveness” is very important.

It’s all about probability.

Even a 5% reduction in risk is worth it IMO.

MF

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.28.20 at 8:28 am

Is it just me or does anyone else find it odd that China’s neighbour, India, seems oddly silent.

No announcements. No plans…..nada.

India.
A country with almost as many people as China with far less money and control over its people….
If you think a virus can spread quickly in China ….you aint seen nuthin yet.

Or
Has the “devil virus” given the worlds largest democracy a pass?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/chinas-xi-tells-who-hes-confident-of-slaying-devil-virus-idUSKBN1ZR0CF

#100 frenzy on 01.28.20 at 8:36 am

If this is the real deal, your stocks may be your least concern. You may take greater comfort in a bucket or two of freeze dried food in your cellar

#101 ezzymo on 01.28.20 at 8:36 am

#53 Apocalypse2020

@garth, right?! Besides we both know it’s the machines looking like Arnie that’ll get us.

#102 maxx on 01.28.20 at 8:52 am

@ #32

Agree 100% with para. 3….keep that tax engine humming.

Life is life is life. If there is insistence upon imputing relative “value” to where medical attention is delivered, life then becomes monetized. This is a scary, mushy-blurry decision-making process. If we force the monetization of everything, we are done for.

There are cases where intervention would cause stress, pain and probably zero benefit, maybe even harm. There are also millions wandering the planet in chronic pain, sometimes for years, before getting the “value” they often have already paid for and deserve.

We digitized Troglodytes still don’t get it. We have so much to learn.

Use it up, crumple the wrapper and toss. Rinse and repeat.

#103 BillyBob on 01.28.20 at 9:07 am

I never cease to be amazed at the total disconnect between what humans fear, and what actually needs to be feared. But I suppose it makes sense given how badly fear distorts judgement.

A mask may, and probably won’t, provide an immeasurably small amount of protection to a threat that is statistically invisible compared to virtually every other threat to the mortality of the average North American. People who buy masks out of an abundance of caution yet still continue to drive in cars, eat red meat, drink alcohol, smoke cannabis, sit for hours in front of a screen – are by definition not rational measurers of risk.

When an offered solution to something offers more psychological benefit than tangible, it triggers a massive “bs” red warning in my risk management mind. That isn’t to say a global pandemic isn’t a threat – only that at this point, coronavirus still ranks so much lower than say, heart disease as a potential killer, that the level of alarm is disproportional.

If you want to see a much better series on possible viral threats, watch Nat Geo’s “The Hot Zone”, about the 1989 Reston virus outbreak. An Ebola variant, if THAT sucker had jumped species as a lethal pathogen, the world would be singing a different tune. Educate oneself about Level-4 organisms, if you really feel a need to have your skin crawl. And pray the security at Ft. Detrick is never breached.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Medical_Research_Institute_of_Infectious_Diseases

Plus, the series has Julianna Margulies in it – bonus! :-)

===================================================

#68 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 8:53 pm
#51 Shawn Allen

Any loss of life from an accident is to be remorsed. But Kobe was probably using a safer form of transportation than if he would have rode in a car. The number of people that die in car accidents every year is up there with the flu. However, because he was a beloved celebrity, it made the news. If my helicopter or motorcycle ever goes down, I doubt you will hear about it. Nonplused just won’t be commenting anymore. It’ll have about as much impact as when someone “unfriends” or “mutes” you on FaceBook. Chances are you won’t notice.

Air travel is still the safest way to go per mile. Accidents do happen though. RIP Kobe and the others.

===========================

Yes, but no. Air travel as most people understand it, in fixed-wing commercial airliners, is easily one of the safest forms of mechanized transport by any metric.

Helicopters, not so much.

“Of all air-related accidents in the United States, fixed-wing occur at a rate of 1.31 per 100,000 flight hours (USHJSAT, 2011). By comparison, helicopter accidents occur at a rate of 9.1 accidents per 100,000 flight hours (USJHIMDAT, 2014)”

#104 Tony on 01.28.20 at 9:13 am

Trump’s chances of re-election are all based on what the major U.S. stock indexes do in 2020 not 2019. For the life of me I don’t know why they boosted the stock market in 2019? It must have been for fake wealth equity boosting GDP figures in 2020. Trump should have pushed stocks sharply lower in 2019 and then raised the major indexes by about 50 percent in 2020 thanks to Powell doing everything he says. Like I said nothing makes sense.

#105 Tony on 01.28.20 at 9:18 am

Re: #99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.28.20 at 8:28 am

These people die because their bodies are out of shape. Their hearts and organs need training. That one in 10 death figure could move up to one in 1,000 if these people just ran or jogged 5 miles a day.

#106 neo on 01.28.20 at 9:25 am

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.20 at 6:51 pm
#40 Andrew on 01.27.20 at 6:41 pm
RIP Kobe, a great man.
—————
A great basketball player.
Not a great man.

*******************************************

He was both. Just because you are too ignorant to know this doesn’t make it so. He made mistakes in his life like everyone else has. Nobody said he was perfect because nobody is but in his post playing career his media company had already produced Oscars and Emmys and his investment company already had $2 billion in assets. He started the Mamba Academy for the advancement and empowerment of young women specifically, but also men. He was also a plilanphanpist and mentored countless number of athletes and aspiring young people. In three short years post retirement he was well on his way to becoming a mogul.

He scored so high on his SAT’s he could have gone to any Ivy League university he wanted to and was fluent in three languages. He decided to be the youngest basketball player of all time at 17 and ended up one of the greatest basketball players of all time but he could have succeeded even if he wasn’t an NBA player regardless. He had that drive and intelligence. He had accomplished a lot in 41 years and his greatest years were still ahead of him.

#107 Incubus on 01.28.20 at 9:37 am

“unprecedented quarantine of 50 million people is beyond extreme.”

Are you sure ?

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/hundreds-of-virus-carrying-planes-headed-for-us-london-paris-vancouver-EjNxIUbMhk-CUN3PWJcLNA

#108 Blog Bunny on 01.28.20 at 9:41 am

Maybe the coronavirus will help Greta fight climate change. You are not sick and dying ? HOW DARE YOU !

#109 n1tro on 01.28.20 at 9:47 am

#98 MF on 01.28.20 at 8:08 am
71 n1tro on 01.27.20 at

In this situation, “partial effectiveness” is very important.

It’s all about probability.

Even a 5% reduction in risk is worth it IMO.

MF
————-
That’s the thing. The mask alone won’t do anything in my opinion and here’s why…

Scenario 1:
Infected person sneezes and leaves a mist of saliva, snot, and viruses. You wearing your mask walk through this mist. Unless your eyes are closed as you walk through, the stuff is on you.

Scenario 2:
The mist of saliva, snot, and viruses settles without anyone passing through. The virus stays dormant for up to 5 days. You with your mask aren’t inhaling it but but you are walking, sitting, touching the surfaces where the mist has settled, the stuff is again on you.

Also, the mask, unless form fitted to your face has a bunch of gaps lets in stuff.

So unless you got gloves, a mask, and goggles, I don’t see a point. Best defense is to work from home if you can and just avoid crowded enclosed areas.

#110 Wait There on 01.28.20 at 9:48 am

Whether or not this virus is as lethal as SARS we don’t know as yet. However, there is ONE HUGE factor that is not covered even by simulations.
This first known case happened in late December 2019. By that time the spread had begun. Indeed, if it takes 14 days to incubate we see the effects on this in the news in Mid January. I read about it when I was on holidays in the Carribean and not much resurfaced till mid January. I was keeping an eye on this. At this time I said to myself Oh OH. OMG.
Why? Because two weeks prior to the Lunar Holiday or Chinese New Year people start travelling back to their families who might be in small towns and villages. I order stuff from China and some firms had already stopped shipping because the staff has already left 10 fays prior to the New Year. Yes, my goods are stuck now.
But when you see the scale of travel, it boggles the mind. Air ports are filled. Buses are jammed pack full, so are trains. People are all breathing on each other.
What happens is you now have a city or now country of people who are placed in close promiximity and you STIR up the mixing or FORCE the intermingling from ALL corners of the country.
Villages don’t have facilities or reporting. Older generations will simply treat this as a cold. The older generations in the small towns and villages and even the undeducted for that matter won’t know what is happening and deaths and ilnesses will go unreported.
Also remember that most of the population in the large cities migrated FROM smaller towns and villages in the boonies. Also this is a time when even extended families gather around and celebrate. This is another factor that is not unaccounted for.
As an expert in HK says the problem is possibly 30 times worse than reported. I concur with him because he understand the New Year and migration aspect. MSM have not clued in to this.
In normal situations and another time, the models would say one thing and this is what we are being fed. The reality is much much worse from an infection standpoint.
What we don’t know is the lethality.
Time for panic? Logic says no. BUT the stats borne out about the number of people dying from influenza a year as a comparison is way too early to compare. Wait a couple more weeks and then we’ll really see what happened or is happening.
Last night the number affected in China nearly doubled in 24 hours. It ain’t over till its over and it’s just beginning. Hong Kong has closed its borders. They know something.
We need to do realize this is not SARS. SARS was perhaps deadlier but the spread is now OUT OF CONTROL in china. The reason they quarantined 60 million is because they know something, that we don’t know.
Quarantining people when this is the ONLY chance for the year people get to meet family is a BIG decision.

#111 Not So New guy on 01.28.20 at 10:16 am

I understand many of these viruses lead to pneumonia which is where the real killing comes in.

I know in BC and possibly all across Canada, there is now a pneumonia vaccine available. Would any health care pros reading this advise us to take this?

#112 Dan the Man on 01.28.20 at 10:26 am

If the RCMP are interested in chasing #74-5 down they should attend a mosque on Friday night or a Wexit rally. Fact is I’ve heard things between seniors about what they’d like to do with Trudeau at Starbucks , and that are starting to sound like normal conversation in Canada you wouldn’t have ever heard pre Trudeau. The growing hate in this country was started by Trudeau and is kept burning by Trudeau. This blog is a pimple on the ass of Trudeau and his race hate regime.

Try to stay on topic, dude. And the topic is not hate. – Garth

#113 Dharma Bum on 01.28.20 at 10:31 am

DELETED

#114 LuckySOB on 01.28.20 at 11:02 am

DELETED

#115 yvr_lurker on 01.28.20 at 11:04 am

#78 Nitro1

—————–
How did SARS originate? Civet cat is most likely

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/01/who-sees-more-evidence-civet-role-sars

Nobody can give a 100% proof of the equation SARS=came from civet cat, but all indicators are there. China would of course like this connection minimized for obvious reasons. Likewise it took the Surgeon General of the U.S. 3 decades to “prove” the link between cigarettes and lung cancer, as the tobacco makers had a vested interest and fought the establishment of this connection for decades. In the interim any reasonable person with half a brain knew the story.

China needs to shut down the their live animal markets. They are a threat to all of us.

#116 MF on 01.28.20 at 11:13 am

#109 n1tro on 01.28.20 at

You are correct that the virus could have a portal of entry through the eyes.

But again it’s about overall dose exposure and probability.

Inhaling a huge bolus of viral particulate matter, which goes directly into the target respiratory tract tissues upon inhaling (which the mask would reduce) carries a much higher risk of infection than getting it on the skin, where it has to survive for a period of time first. Same is true for getting it in the eyes, where it first has to go through the lymphatic system, then to the blood, then to the target tissue respiratory tract.

Even a small reduction in susceptibility is valuable.

MF

#117 CanadianGrizzly on 01.28.20 at 11:44 am

IMHO, not time for masks yet in the GTA unless you have a weakened immune system like the elderly or hang out at doctor offices and hospitals.

As other have mentioned, this corona virus maybe more transmissible than SARS due to carriers being infectious yet asymptomatic during the virus’s incubation period in the host.

Those N95 disposal masks of all types can not provide a decent seal on the face. Better than nothing but they’re 95% effective and meant more to protect others from the wearer.

For the doomers wanting to go full-pandemic, you’ll want an effective mask such as these half-face or even better a full-face reusable respirator with N100 or P100 replaceable filtration cartridges good for 40 hours of use. 3M/North/Honeywell makes them and are still widely available online.

Comparison of N95 vs. N100/P100
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/default.html

#118 Captain Uppa on 01.28.20 at 12:02 pm

You must have been riding a subway in an alternate universe. In 2003 face masks were a total novelty in Toronto. In any case, they seem to be more cosmetic than effective. – Garth

—————————————————————–

I have heard Scarborough called worse.

My trip was West End -> Downtown for school – > Scarborough for work placement. It wasn’t Wuhan, but to me it seemed like plenty of people were wearing masks. I guess it was shocking cause I’d never seen that before. And yes, totally ineffective.

#119 Sail Away on 01.28.20 at 1:02 pm

#115 yvr_lurker on 01.28.20 at 11:04 am

—————–
How did SARS originate? Civet cat is most likely

————————–

So self-important, us humans. How many diseases have we given to other animals?

The civets are probably blaming us.

#120 IHCTD9 on 01.28.20 at 1:02 pm

#117 CanadianGrizzly on 01.28.20 at 11:44 am

For the doomers wanting to go full-pandemic, you’ll want an effective mask such as these half-face or even better a full-face reusable respirator with N100 or P100 replaceable filtration cartridges good for 40 hours of use. 3M/North/Honeywell makes them and are still widely available online.
___

I’ve got a NORTH half mask with twin cartridges and the flapper valve. Great unit, but you do have to clean the thing all the time.

Those disposable masks are useless, grab an angle grinder and grind on some steel for an hour or so – then go blow your nose…

https://www.honeywellsafety.com/Products/Respiratory_Protection/7700_Series_Half_Mask_(North_Brand).aspx?site=/ca

The ultimate is the headgear that sandblasters use. Full helmet connected to a hose feeding air from 20-30 feet away via a fan. No good for pandemic protection though.

#121 crazyfox on 01.28.20 at 1:07 pm

#93 NoName on 01.28.20 at 6:31 am

Dumb enough to make a mistake, smart enough to catch it and yes, after forced re-examination the error was in my mind. Oh, the humility. I will somehow learn to live with it, feel my appropriate guilt and if allowed, move on.

#95 MF on 01.28.20 at 8:00 am

I think we are looking at a global pandemic that mutates in the future with a much higher death rate (double digit). This would not be uncommon but I also think the world will come up with a vaccine for it say, in 1.5 years. Optimistic with a vaccine on this one. This virus is an odd duck in that there is no fever which suggests that the RNA code is part snake or cold blooded giving us something to exploit. In the meantime, the rate of populations spread at 1.5x suggests that a week from now, 77,000 will be infected and 2 weeks from now 1.3 million. This doctor that showed up on the national last nite from HK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZeKzqphlzM

… ran 2 charts, one at one week before spread slows, one at 2 weeks before spread slows presumably in Wuhan where 11 million are under quarantine but he could have been talking about 41.5 million partially/fully quarantined in China. The thing is, this virus is so new that we do not yet know it’s parameters in terms of how contagious it really is in part because the incubation period of being contagious but not sick is 1 to 14 days. It should go without saying, but we will know a great deal more a month from now than we do now.

We are under the assumptions that it is not highly contagious or that the virus can be contained through quarantines, at least what I’m picking up from media, certainly globally we can slow it down with quarantines city wide if needed giving researchers a chance to find a vaccine now that they have a working virus to study. It is human to human, it does spread on contact and close proximity but beyond this, how long say, the corona virus will live on surfaces or hands, I don’t think this is known or publicly known.

China is how #110 Wait There describes, densely populated, basically the worst case scenario of the spread of a pandemic.

I’m just another dude with an opinion, but at first blush looking at past pandemics and viral threats, H5N1 is still the one to worry about. H5N1 boasts a 60% fatality rate and is said to be a few quick mutations away from going human to human. If there is a virus to really worry about, its still H5N1. The link below is from 2012 but nothing has changed in terms of risk. Add growing populations, crowded living conditions with other birds and animals, drugs in the water, chemicals, climate change etc. and the risk only goes up for mutation.

https://www.latimes.com/science/la-xpm-2012-jun-21-la-sci-h5n1-bird-flu-20120622-story.html

Another viral risk that has global pandemic potential that could mutate to a high mortality rate is from the corona virus 229E strain, human respiratory syncytial virus or HRSV. This virus is not on anyone’s radar mainly due to the fact that it leads to lung infections most pass off as common colds but it’s rate of spread is very high. It is so high that it is impossible to prevent. Epidemics occur annually world wide.

In the U.S., 60% of infants are infected in their first season. Nearly all children by the age of 2 and 3 are infected. 2 to 3% will need hospitalization for Bronchiolitis. The immune system does build up antibodies but they wane and thus we end up becoming re-infected several times over the course of our lifetimes.

RSV is spread easily by physical contact. Touching, kissing, and shaking hands with an infected person can spread RSV. The virus spreads from person to person through contact with contaminated tiny droplets or objects that the droplets have touched.

RSV can live for a half an hour or more on hands. The virus can also live for up to 5 hours on countertops and for several hours on used tissues. RSV often spreads very rapidly in crowded households and day care centers. The moral of this story? Wash your hands.

https://www.medicaldaily.com/rsv-outbreak-doctors-issue-warning-virus-spreads-fast-448134

This virus is about as common to the human experience as chewing gum and TP (ok, well, maybe not that common) and most of us are oblivious to it even when we are infected by it most likely because the health care industry doesn’t want us to become alarmed. If this particular virus was to mutate and become a killer with a much higher death rate, we wouldn’t have much time for panic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_orthopneumovirus

Should we worry? No, life is too short. Just enjoy life while we can and appreciate the good as nothing is guaranteed. I keep thinking about this story going on 3 weeks back:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/asia/australasian-impact-crater-laos-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html

Scientists now think they’ve found the asteroid collision (1.2 mile wide asteroid) that rocked this Earth with so much force, it changed Earth’s orbital variations to the glacial formations/retreats and ice build ups we’ve seen Antarctica for the last 790,000 years. The modern world we know today with most of the newly evolved species of animals and birds and insects were evolved through the kick start of this one event. Just like that, this world can change. It is not beyond the imagination to think that a deadly global pandemic could change the world as we know it with just one species like ours.

#122 Typo?Negative. on 01.28.20 at 1:27 pm

#109 n1tro on 01.28.20 at 9:47 am

That’s the thing. The mask alone won’t do anything in my opinion and here’s why…

Scenario 1:
Infected person sneezes and leaves a mist of saliva, snot, and viruses. You wearing your mask walk through this mist. Unless your eyes are closed as you walk through, the stuff is on you.

_______________________

It seems to me this is actually a pretty good example of why people SHOULD wear masks. In the scenario above, sure, you get infected – however, wearing the mask means you don’t become a second sprayer of infected mist, passing the virus on to everyone you sneeze at, as you would if you weren’t wearing the mask.

Now, if the first guy was also wearing a mask – even if he didn’t know he was infected and was only wearing it out of the erroneous belief he was protecting himself from the virus – then it’s a totally different scenario, no cloud of mist for you to walk through in the first place.

Masks might not completely prevent infection, but it sure seems like their use would help to prevent spreading the virus.

#123 JB on 01.28.20 at 1:33 pm

#64 Nonplused on 01.27.20 at 8:34 pm

#37 Annek

Wait… what?? Condos share air? You can’t even build a compliant basement suite unless it does not share air with the upper floor and has a 1 hour fire rating (a fire won’t go up or down for 1 hour, 3/4 inch drywall is the key here). That’s why most condos (and compliant basement suites) use water radiant heating. Or electric. I am sure there are older units that do share air but this is not up to code now. Hasn’t been for a long time. I don’t even think hotel rooms are allowed to share air, which is why those air-conditioners that stick out of the wall are so popular with hotel/motels. Heating, cooling, and fresh air are all handled by that noisy little unit under the window.

There are 3 main reasons that “shared air” was phased out. #1 smoking and other smells people might find noxious like spicy foods. #2 you can’t share air and have independent temperature control. So on #2 if you are in the basement suite it might be quite cold and dark but the thermostat is upstairs where it is warm and sunny. No heat in the basement with shared air. This can happen in condos as well where the south side of the building might be picking up a lot of sunshine and either be too hot or too cold whereas the north side doesn’t need any HVAC going on. #3 is fire resistance. you want to give everybody as much time as possible to escape before the fire goes through the air ducts. Which, yes it will.

Some fancy hotels do not have the air-conditioners sticking out the side, especially high rise buildings. So what they have instead is cooled/heated water going to radiators, most of which will be in the ceiling and circulate air. But they circulate your own air with some fresh air inserted and some stale air exhausted. They don’t, if they are up to code, hot-box all the neighboring units with pot smoke if there happens to be a youth sports team staying in nearby units. You only get a bit of fresh air and heated or cooled water. It could be the case that the units share water but that is on the other side of the heat exchanger so it won’t affect your air.

There are a lot of practices that occurred in the past and to some extent still occur today in what is termed “non-compliant” suites. Shared air and heat is one of them. But you cannot build a compliant suite and have shared air. Windows are another. Lots of people used to suite their basement and not put in proper windows (expensive, after all), but the law now is that all bedrooms whether upstairs or downstairs, suite or not, must have a window that can be escaped through for fire reasons. Heck even permanent beds in an RV must have escape windows. My RV has a main bed in the front and a bunk in the back, both have escape windows. But I have seen many non-compliant suites that do not.

“Shared air” is not a thing unless you are in a non-compliant suite or a really old condo. Fire regulations snuffed that out. And smokers. Something to thank them for, aside from dying before they cost the medical system too much for nothing.
……………………………………………………………
Not true new condos also share air to balance out the positive and negative air pressures between them. That is why you can smell your neighbours pot and their curried chiken!

#124 BillyBob on 01.28.20 at 1:40 pm

116 MF on 01.28.20 at 11:13 am

Even a small reduction in susceptibility is valuable.

MF

=================================================

Relative to spending your time, mental energy, and money on a myriad of other things far more dangerous to your ongoing existence than coronavirus – not really. But it IS totally in character for you to be giving it the attention you obviously are.

Watched a really interesting documentary done by the BBC in 2017 where they used volunteers with apps on their phones to simulate the spread of a virus in the UK. Brilliant idea actually: thousands of volunteers installed a research app, when one’s phone with the “virus” app on it is near another one with the same app, the virus “spreads” and they were able to track the spread throughout the entire country, it’s speed, vectors, everything, right from their “Patient Zero”.

Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1

The science:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306

Sobering stuff: the takeaway is, if a truly deadly virus ever hits

– a mask won’t stop it
– you won’t know you have it until it’s too late
– it’ll have a massive kill rate
– there will be no chance of developing a vaccine in anything like the timeframe required to prevent it.

So..unless you’re Apocalypse2020 guy with a air-tight bunker…take sensible precautions, but don’t pretend some drugstore mask will save you….far smarter to just hit the gym and eat better…

#125 crazyfox on 01.28.20 at 3:11 pm

This virus is an odd duck in that there is no fever which suggests that the RNA code is part snake or cold blooded giving us something to exploit. – crazyfox

Wrong again! It’s not part snake and it does cause fever so that was fake news.

If, however, Dr. John Campbell’s information fleshes out from the link below I might make up for it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPvpfC7NfR0

The virus can lie dormant within a protein coating and live on hard surfaces for 5 days. That’s bad. Couple this tid bit of info with the fact that habitually we touch our faces on average a few times each hour and, you get the drift. The Novel Corona virus is looking like it travels quite easily from human to human at a rate of 1.5x per day and the numbers are still fluid, but the death rate is somewhere between 2 to 3%. High rate of spread, high contagion, significant death rate, infectious for up to 14 days without feeling sick so it’s that much harder to track and contain… this is what a global pandemic looks like.

Transmission
Direct from animals, vectors
Human to human
Droplet, nasal or mouth mucosa, eyes
Coughs and sneezes spread diseases – over 2 metres
Catch it – bin it – kill it
Surfaces – hands – mucous membranes
Virus contained in an envelope, so virus can stay dormant for 5 days
Fomites
Closed environments, less likely outside
Sometimes people with mild or no symptoms can be carriers

Contagious for a few (2-5-14) days of incubation period, feeling well but still contagious.

Click “show more” on the link for the particulars.

#126 n1tro on 01.28.20 at 3:17 pm

#122 Typo?Negative. on 01.28.20 at 1:27 pm

Masks might not completely prevent infection, but it sure seems like their use would help to prevent spreading the virus.
————–
I don’t know anyone who would just sneeze into their own mask just to have all the snot and saliva bounce back into their face. Also, after the first sneeze, the mask would have to be replaced unless you are going to put back on the wet soaking mask.

Isn’t sneezing into your sleeve just as effective?

#127 Typo?Negative. on 01.28.20 at 5:24 pm

#126 n1tro on 01.28.20 at 3:17 pm

Isn’t sneezing into your sleeve just as effective?
___________________

Beats me – I’ve never worn one of these masks, but I can’t see why the bounce back effect would be any worse than sneezing into your sleeve. But yeah, seems like you wouldn’t want to keep wearing the same one after a certain point.

In Japan, a country with 127 million people, they went through nearly 5 billion of these masks in 2015. That averages out to about 40 masks for every single person in the country that year.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/mask-appeal