I’m out.

In the course of healing the nation this week, a certain pathetic blog made some recommendations about our house lust. For example, there would be less of it, and far more attractive, affordable, long-term rental units, if we stopped giving people a 100% tax break on real estate profits.

This is the reason why, today, I’m announcing I will not run for leader of the Conservative party. I’m unelectable. Dead meat.

Actually there are lots of reasons. Is the nation ready for a political leader who uses words like ‘moister’ and ‘horny’? I think not. Or who would rather have a dog than a kid? And admit it? That’s just weird. Or who’d parade his chiselled abs and washboard physique at media briefings? Off-putting, to say the least. Besides, I‘ve already been thrown out of the party once for being a bad robot, trying to create digital democracy and bringing average deplorables into the political process. Nobody in Ottawa wants that. And I’m, like, ancient. I remember when Kevin O’Leary had hair. When Justin Trudeau was born. When phones had wires. When conservatives were compassionate. This is the age of the new, new thing. That’s ain’t me.

So, liberated from having to be nice to anyone, let me get back to this week’s big topic: why we’re pooched.

Real estate is killing us. It’s been the case since this blog started. This week The Economist came to the same conclusion. By sucking most of the net worth of most people into a single asset in one city, on one street and using 20x leverage to get it, housing has caused households to become unbalanced and undiversified in their financial lives. We’ve ended up with historic levels of debt, at rates which will only rise in future. We’ve eschewed savings and investments for particleboard and glue. Moreover, we’ve grossly inflated the price of real estate and infected the kids with property desire, leading the next gen into an even worse pickle. Shame on policymakers. You have failed us.

There’s no way out now, it seems. Nobody’s going to vote for an iconoclast with facial hair, cowboy boots, a used bank and a Chow dog who says we must cure this affliction. It seems everyone wants to feed it. Even the Ploz.

This week outgoing Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz gave an end-of-career interview in which he mused how people in this nation might deal with the fact average families can no longer afford average homes. The solution, he says, is to share equity. To allow third-party investors to own a piece of people’s homes.

The Poloz idea: a family buys a portion of a house (maybe 50%), but occupies it fully. They pay a mortgage for half the value. The rest of the property is owned and financed by a speculator who receives a fee from the family, plus half the profits when it’s sold. The benefit to the family is living in a place they could never otherwise afford. The benefit to the investor is money. Profit.

“That’s complicated but that’s a solution to the affordability issue,” Poloz said in a media interview. “I’m thinking of it that way because it kind of gives me a clue of the sorts of things we could try to do to at least begin to address the affordability problem. We will not address it by wishing it away, or somehow building more houses.”

Alas, this is why we’re in such trouble. Our leaders have helped turn houses into investable assets and done all they can to increase demand – with first-time buyer credits, cheap mortgage rates, CMHC insurance allowing 5% down, the RRSP home buyer’s plan, tax-free capital gains, property tax deferrals and now the shared-equity mortgage. The Bank of Canada boss’s fix is appalling – increasing the demand for houses by pushing the agenda that they’re tradeable assets, not homes. A market in residential equity would soon result.

Nah, we need some bold thinking and leaders willing to hold back the tide. The reason Ottawa is giving families $22 billion a year in child support payments, has removed 40% of them from the tax rolls and if therefore facing a sea of deficits and future taxes is directly related to the cost of housing. Real estate is killing us. An indebted nation needs this lifeline to survive. And it’s an anchor on all.

So, Mr. Poloz, just retire. And put a cork in it. We’re done here.

The two reasons your daughter can’t afford a house? Interest rates kept too low for too long, inflating asset values and permanently indebting the middle class. Plus, a tax regime that fuels real estate speculation. By making house prices free we’ve encouraged a massive over-investment in a single asset class by citizens who now see it as their only hope and salvation.

Of course, you can never turn off a tap once it’s on. Every single benefit people receive from government becomes an entitlement. This is why we’re pooched. Leaders no longer lead. They sniff the wind and follow.

Right over the cliff.

Hence today’s bitter, shocking announcement. It’s a game I cannot play. Stephen Harper wanted zero down payments and 40-year mortgages. I fought. I lost. His boot print is still on my butt. At least I was right.

Ottawa Citizen

 

148 comments ↓

#1 Harpo for PM on 01.24.20 at 12:57 pm

He’s on the comeback. Campaign motto… “I told you he wasn’t ready”

#2 Dups on 01.24.20 at 1:06 pm

I have learned more from Garth than any political leader out there. I would have voted for you as PM without even thinking.

#3 JuliaS on 01.24.20 at 1:38 pm

So, instead of mortgages being packaged as securities, now Poloz proposes inviting shareholders right into the homes. Pairing up a borrower who can’t afford an asset and an investor whose only incentive is “guaranteed” profit.

#4 Andy on 01.24.20 at 1:53 pm

Awww that’s too bad… you have my vote, Garth :-)

#5 Doug t on 01.24.20 at 1:57 pm

People get what they deserve – and it’s gonna be a doozie

#6 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 01.24.20 at 2:00 pm

The two reasons your daughter can’t afford a house? Interest rates kept too low for too long, inflating asset values and permanently indebting the middle class. Plus, a tax regime that fuels real estate speculation.
—-
According to Demographia, urban planning land use restrictions are also a factor in unaffordable housing.

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

#7 Stan Brooks on 01.24.20 at 2:04 pm

He said what?

Bhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha

What a pathetic bunch of mediocre incompetent losers determining the cost of your labour/money through manipulated interest rates.

These are the people who control you and your destiny, folks.

He can not even remotely comprehend that is it his idiotic policies combined with the idiotic policies at CMHC that caused the problems in the first place. And now this man is offering a solution to the problems he created in first place?

Absolutely hilarious. Enjoy the Vaseline folks. The very idea that such quality, intelligent, sophisticated educated man can screw whole generations is absolutely delightful to me.

Cheers and prepare for the next ‘boss’ folks, you have seen NOTHING yet.

Salud/as appropriate for a banana republic.
Any other ‘developed’ countries implementing such insane ideas? Of course not. The very definition of (brain-frozen) insanity is here.

#8 BlogDog123 on 01.24.20 at 2:09 pm

remove zoning restrictions and NIMBYs having a say (good luck with that)

Build more apartments than Montreal has. Supply, supply, supply online fast. Get those building permits expedited. Red tape removal, planning meetings shortened, get those sewer lines upgraded fast. go go go… build build build they will come, so more apartments…

fast fast go go, and build those apartments near lesser used subway and Mississauga transitway stations so theoretically fewer cars on the road.

#9 Mf on 01.24.20 at 2:10 pm

I would also vote for you Garth. I would even help by putting up signs, etc.

#10 Strippaplease on 01.24.20 at 2:12 pm

Yes yes, real estate is killing us, but more importantly, where can one acquire an Elect Garth Turner sign?

#11 Sanga on 01.24.20 at 2:14 pm

Hold on…Stop the presses! Nice try Garth, now we know your running. There is no way T2 was born, not possible. You almost had me there.

#12 Stan Brooks on 01.24.20 at 2:15 pm

He is actually stating with a straight face that even increasing the interest rates by 5 % (imagine mortgages at 8 % +) will not cool the hot housing market…

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/stephen-poloz-says-he-can-t-cool-the-hot-housing-market~1100901

This is your central bank governor folks.

Take every penny out while you can, you have been warned.

Salud,

#13 Uros on 01.24.20 at 2:22 pm

You would get my vote Garth (and of everyone I know that’s persuadable), in fact I think you would get a lot more votes then it might seem currently.

#14 Crisse de câlice de tabarnak d'esti de sacrament on 01.24.20 at 2:39 pm

#8 BlogDog123 on 01.24.20 at 2:09 pm
remove zoning restrictions and NIMBYs having a say (good luck with that)

Build more apartments than Montreal has. Supply, supply, supply online fast. Get those building permits expedited. Red tape removal, planning meetings shortened, get those sewer lines upgraded fast. go go go… build build build they will come, so more apartments…

fast fast go go, and build those apartments near lesser used subway and Mississauga transitway stations so theoretically fewer cars on the road.

——————————————–

Careful now, you’ll end up with something like Griffintown. Unplanned condo towers, no parks, no schools, just constant construction and nowhere to park. The planning during the Tremblay administration was so bad, that schools in adjacent communities (that actually care about urban planning) now have to build portable classrooms in their school yards to accommodate the children from there. As Garth would say, these are the places where our grandchildren will be going to buy their crack.

https://montrealgazette.com/business/too-little-too-late-urban-plan-for-griffintown-came-after-the-fact

#15 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.24.20 at 2:47 pm

#2 Dups on 01.24.20 at 1:06 pm sez:

“I have learned more from Garth than any political leader out there. I would have voted for you as PM without even thinking.”
—————————–
Precisely the problem. Most people vote for PM without even thinking.

#16 NotLegalAdvice on 01.24.20 at 2:49 pm

#3 JuliaS on 01.24.20 at 1:38 pm:
“Pairing up a borrower who can’t afford an asset and an investor whose only incentive is “guaranteed” profit”.

Correct me if I’m wrong Garth, BUT these “investors” would be the government, right? Through the Shared Equity Mortgages?

I think people are assuming other “investors” are helping out.

#17 DON on 01.24.20 at 2:50 pm

#75 IHCTD9 on 01.24.20 at 12:50 pm

#72 DON on 01.24.20 at 12:24 pm

Did they have to rethread the spark plug holes? Engines with aluminum heads (over time) can melt around the spark plug threads, so when you take one out it strips the threads. Had this happen on newer vehicle lately. Lucky I only had to do one hole. I let the garage do this, cost $150. Can do yourself but better to have the garage rethread the holes so nothing falls down into the cylinders.
__

Good call. They fix stripped threads like this with helicoils. To install one you need the helicoils themselves (sold 5-10/pkg), the right size drill and special helicoil tap, the installation tool, and something to cut the tang off after the install (ie. a tiny little chisel that won’t be found anywhere in your garage).

150.00 is dirt cheap, you would have spent more on just the components. Plus, it’s a tough job the first few times, and sure as sh!t you’d end up with that bloody tang going down the hole!
****************

I watched a older mechanic on you tube re thread a hole and not too complicated, he used axle grease to catch any metal shavings, then again he had the heads out of the vehicle. Thankfully I didn’t have to go the heli route, car only has 100K.

@ #If it’s not too hard. The previous owner used the anti seize stuff, I could see it on the spark plug threads, but I think they did it to fix the issue and not prevent it.

My advice to anyone buying any vehicle (especially used) google the car repair forums. In one Chevy vehicle to change the alternator you either had to slide the engine forward or remove the windshield wiper motor. It turns out removing the wiper motor and braces was more time consuming.

Now if I can only get the bolt on my truck’s distributor loosened without breaking something, including my knuckles. Waiting for the torrential rains to stop and a brief sunny period.

#18 Ken R on 01.24.20 at 2:50 pm

Best intro to a post in a long while Garth; still laughing.

#19 Ubul on 01.24.20 at 2:58 pm

Poloz gave an investible hint: he does not see the end of low interest rate or the end of the power of central banks, who get the biggest benefit from governments, Bank of Moms and benefit for all kids doesn’t even come close, they are also entitled and ready to lead. Maybe right over the cliff.

Harper knew that. Anyone who got in at that time, even with zero down, is good now.

#20 Dave Ahem on 01.24.20 at 2:58 pm

My wife and I are in the position where we could invest into more real estate if we wanted to. We choose to invest in the market and stay diversified but even if we decided we needed more real estate, why on earth would I give my hard earned savings to someone else to share in their equity? How do I know how they’re going to maintain the home? Give someone 50% of the down, they’re going to give the home 50% of the care they would if they were 100% on the hook. No thank you. If I had an appetite for more real estate, I’d either go private mortgage in 1st position or buy a condo. Not give someone else my cash then wonder when I’m getting my money back.

#21 Linda on 01.24.20 at 3:01 pm

Poloz’s idea is simply replacing ‘government’ with ‘investor’ & of course upping the ante. Didn’t the Liberals promise a deal where those who desire to purchase can get a government (taxpayer funded) loan & then upon selling fork over a portion of the profit to repay said loan with interest? Interest dependent on the property increasing in value, of course. I’ve also read about municipal affordable housing initiatives, where the local government backs the purchasers who upon selling turn over a portion of the price to repay the local municipality.

Seems to me the real issue here is the desire to get rich quick & using housing to do so. Like any other bubble where the masses pile on board & boast of how they will profit, when the bubble bursts those left holding the bag will blame anything & anyone other than their own actions. Does Poloz have any property related business interests?

#22 X on 01.24.20 at 3:03 pm

10% down payment really would solve alot of these issues. It would minimize the effect of the low rates that we have had for so long. Reduce demand for houses. Encourage saving.

Historically this is what our norm was before anyways.

#23 joblo on 01.24.20 at 3:04 pm

How did this Bozo get the job?

#24 DON on 01.24.20 at 3:07 pm

Garth,

I guess my intuition kicked in…as last night I was about to send the yearly Garth should run for office. But then again having to tow the line and tell people what they want to hear is not very appealing. But imagine your on line presence and a army of blog dogs campaigning for you. Looks as if the Conservative party will be the same after they choose one of Harper’s latest picks. Maybe in 4 years people will want to hear the truth and a way out.

Polz also mentioned that consumer spending is down and hiring has slowed across Canada. But housing is robust and all is well. How do they managed to reconcile this, at the same time they are dialing back on their GDP expectations for 2020?

One last comment, the extra Child Tax money goes right into the RESPs and any increase (this year) will be funnelled into investments. But I do think that most parents that I am in contact with may need the extra money just to fund daily/monthly expenses and I do not blame them for doing so.

#25 Shawn Allen on 01.24.20 at 3:07 pm

Why are Houses and even apartments so expensive?

Low interest rates certainly. And tax policies that encourage ownership.

But also scarcity of supply. What role are zoning restrictions, the green belt and the single-family housing belt playing?

And what about all the costs?

If you could build houses or at least apartments cheap and there was land available then competition would keep prices reasonable in relation to the low costs. Same for single family houses if there were land and competition.

Besides lack of places to build apartments and houses what other factors are pushing up costs and can’t any of them be dealt with?

A little thing we call “the market” keeps the costs for most things reasonable and brings supply in line with demand. What is it about the housing supply market that is broken? Why can’t things be fixed or at least addressed?

#26 leebow on 01.24.20 at 3:13 pm

Garth,

May be winning is not the ultimate goal of running? You know that you don’t need to prove anything to anybody. Just saying those critically important things to the wide audience in debates, or on TV in a non-judgmental way could substantially change the public discourse. And things do need to change.

Somebody has to be the voice of reason. I would donate to your campaign.

#27 SoggyShorts on 01.24.20 at 3:13 pm

I don’t understand…
Let’s say you went for this “investment”

Party 1 pays for half and lives in a house rent-free, and upon sale gets 50% of profits.

Party 2 pays for half and “a fee” and upon sale gets 50% of profits

unless that “fee” is huge(like thousands per month), why would you want to be #2?

Also, when/how do you get your money if they don’t sell? Sounds like an incredibly illiquid investment.

#28 NotLegalAdvice on 01.24.20 at 3:17 pm

#20 Dave Ahem:

“Not give someone else my cash then wonder when I’m getting my money back.”

COME ON….i’ll be your friend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsGoPz4Yajw

#29 Polozified on 01.24.20 at 3:18 pm

See you guys you never listen to me!
I told you there was gonna be trouble but you didn’t listen to me!
You guys are crazy!
You know you’re self destructive!
There’s a funny farm and it’s got your names written all over it…

#30 yvr_lurker on 01.24.20 at 3:20 pm

The main problem areas are YVR (with the contagion spread to neighbouring areas) and the GTA. Unfortunately, this is where there are some high paying jobs. Speculation from locals but also notably from overseas buyers on the global monopoly board bidded prices up dramatically. To think that offshore buyers played no key role is delusional.

#31 Renter's Revenge! on 01.24.20 at 3:30 pm

I’d vote for you.

#32 Stoph on 01.24.20 at 3:37 pm

#7 Stan Brooks on 01.24.20 at 2:04 pm

Poloz is smart and knows that this is the reason houses are so expensive … he’s just telling people what they want to hear.

You survive in politics by going with the flow and being a yes man/woman. Politicians who stick with their principles get turned into roadkill. Garth got kicked out, Jody Wilson-Raybould got kicked out, and somewhat similarly Andrew Scheer got raked over the coals for being prolife.

#33 Dog Thoughts on 01.24.20 at 3:37 pm

Good Morning!

today the human made waffles. and I got one!

All I can say is never give up on your dreams.

#34 Joe on 01.24.20 at 3:49 pm

For what it’s worth, you would have had my vote.

#35 Blacksheep on 01.24.20 at 3:52 pm

Houses prices have severely inflated, fact.

Our central bank promotes a constant inflation rate of at least 2%, fact. The globalization and automation of labour has / is kicking the shit out of our middle class, fact. Majority of Canadians cannot afford buying or renting shelter and a diversified portfolio at the same time, fact. Most Canadians still believe RE is the best path they can possibly afford to significant wealth accumulation over a lifetime, fact. The government has and will continue to support RE in an effort keep the high % of RE owners solvent and thus stay in power, fact. Our lack of internal population growth means we must import 250K warm bodies annually to fuel our consumer economy, fact. The strip of land that most Canadians live in just north of the US border is about the size of France, fact. Even though the land mass that most Canadians live in just north of the US border is that of smaller Euro country we still have to financially maintain a country larger than the US of A with 1/10 the population, fact. Corporate lobbyist coerce our government to allow ‘legal tax evasion’ by the off shoring of high earning corporations / peoples, fact. The annual big city homeless count is rapidly increasing for the above mentioned reasons, fact. Basic income of some fashion is about to introduced to the masses out of pure necessity, fact. The ‘climate emergency’ promoted by the gullible is just making the above situations more untenable by financially burdening the citizenry unnecessarily, fact.

Anyone still wonder why home prices have rapidly increased and there is 70% RE ownership in Canada.

What other choices do many have?

#36 Bill Grable on 01.24.20 at 3:53 pm

Mr. Turner – a large and ominous Black Swan is going to impact everything – the outbreak of a very infectious new virus.

“China’s bid to contain a deadly new virus by placing cities of millions under quarantine is an unprecedented undertaking but it is unlikely to stop the disease spreading, experts warn.

The contagious virus has already reached elsewhere in China and abroad, and even an authoritarian government has only a small time frame in which trapped residents will submit to such a lockdown, they say.

“I think we have passed the golden period of control and prevention,” said Guan Yi, an expert on viruses at Hong Kong University.

China began its campaign on Thursday, cutting off all transport links out of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people where the coronavirus linked to SARS emerged late last year.

A cascading number of nearby cities has since been added to the travel blacklist, corralling more than 40 million people in a bid to stop those with the disease travelling and infecting others elsewhere.

What will this do to the World economy.

https://news.yahoo.com/time-im-scared-experts-fear-too-china-virus-103855664.html

#37 Damifino on 01.24.20 at 3:59 pm

I’d like to follow suit by tossing my own hat out of the ring. It’s official: Damifino will not seek the Conservative Party Leadership. Try to get over it.

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 01.24.20 at 4:02 pm

Poloz could never get past his early mistake in chopping rates in response to one regional problem: oil prices. And when he did try and raise them he chickened out when the housing market began to show sign of normalcy. Central Banks are still fighting the last century’s problem: inflation. They need to update their mandate.

#39 Sold Out on 01.24.20 at 4:06 pm

Not terribly optimistic about containing the Wuhan corona virus when the people responsible for the job manaage to get themselves infected, instead.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047394/chinese-expert-who-came-down-wuhan-coronavirus-after-saying-it-was#click=https://t.co/x6RMk2uFUh

#40 The Wet One on 01.24.20 at 4:08 pm

“This is the reason why, today, I’m announcing I will not run for leader of the Conservative party. I’m unelectable. Dead meat.”

Phew.

For a moment there I thought the blog was dead.

If that’s all, there’s no worries. There’s more than enough liars in the country to fill those clown shoes. No worries.

And anyways Garth, this is a better gig.

Cheers!

#41 wallflower on 01.24.20 at 4:10 pm

I am seeing more and more and more houses bought 2016 and 2017 sold 2019 and 2020 at technical losses (and some at significant losses) that I am confident the mythic RE asset story will no longer be spinnable by the RE industry, toward end of 2020.

Sea change coming.
The conversation themes will be mighty different.
(Oh, and once the immigration numbers are no longer spinnable, watch out, specuvestors. Oh and pile on some basic demographics… watch out tsunami.)

#42 just a dude on 01.24.20 at 4:10 pm

Garth,

I wish our current “leaders” would be more like you. Always refreshing and encouraging to hear someone have the courage to speak their mind and call out all the BS. You rock, Sir. Thank you for what you do.

As an aside, recently heard an ad for the following. We are indeed pooched.

https://borrowwithyourcar.com/

#43 wallflower on 01.24.20 at 4:14 pm

#25 Shawn Allen on 01.24.20 at 3:07 pm

Scarcity. Total chimera. It is something else.

My building had at least 10 empty units (total 48) for several years. Now, still has a few!
Have you walked around Vancouver? Loads of uninhabited houses – some are obvious to the eye and others can be established by talking to the neighbours.
My son’s GF family bought a downtown Vancouver condo two years ago that was 20 years uninhabited. Since day the tower was built.

#44 NoName on 01.24.20 at 4:16 pm

I know where he got an idea half house ownership, from fractional ownership of art… So big words now.

This is my village, so I am ok with saying it.

Government has to restrict foreign ownership of land, simple as that, you forign or landed no house or farm,
you speak and write with an accent, but have citizenship you can own house or land, even if dual. How hrad is this? I know it’s hard industry left and 1/4 of GDP is re related…

As for flu, this year anedotal story, all 3 children of my sister got flu/cold. Sister excellent nurse recognized that things are going south fast, took them to see doctor, doc sad you just nurse you don’t know, take them home… I can just imagine how quick polite and civil conversation become cage mach…
Anyways kids spend 2wks in hospital conectted to machines how bad they were, they good now.

And hilicoils, I am 100 percent sure they clipped tab before they treaded it in. Yes it’s wrong but it’s doable and just as good. Everyone hates hilicoils, I had an honor to deal with one over the holidays… So what I am saying change sparkplugs even if the don’t need changing and dont use coper based antisiz, nickel is ok-ish.

https://agradetools.com/be-confident-with-anti-seize-how-to-use-the-right-anti-seize-like-a-boss/

#45 The Wet One on 01.24.20 at 4:23 pm

I note that Poloz isn’t entirely off the mark with his idea though.

“The Poloz idea: a family buys a portion of a house (maybe 50%), but occupies it fully. ”

It fails in the last 4 words. That family should share the 50% of the house with another family who gets the other 50% of the house. They both pay and are adequate housed and can both enjoy the benefits of a home at an affordable price. Granted, it’s 1/2 a house, but a suitably designed modern home of current size (about double the size of homes past) should be more than enough to fit modern sized families (with 1 or 2 less children than in past).

Seems like a win win to me and beats the affordability game.

The agreement to iron out the kinks and completely predictable problems will add a bit extra on top on the deal, but once it becomes a standard part of house conveyance practice, it shouldn’t be that much of a cost issue in the grand scheme of things.

But having an investor not live in the house with you but have a financial interest in it? Yeah. Not a winner in my books.

Ah well.

Down the drain it all goes I guess.

Whatever. It’s 100 seconds to midnight so the world is almost done anyways, right? When it all goes boom, none of this stuff will matter that much anymore.

Don’t believe me? Watch the movie Threads and then you’ll see what I’m talking about.

#46 Piano_Man87 on 01.24.20 at 4:24 pm

If Garth were PM, Canada would have:
Minimum downpayment on a house: 120%
Rental incentives for dog-owners
Annual Financial Literacy competition, grand prize one Harley Davidson plus extra TFSA contribution room
Capital Punishment for predatory lenders
A constitutional right to Metamucil in old age

#47 FreeBird on 01.24.20 at 4:29 pm

Even if you were younger and not within age to collect pension and find it hard to pass bathrooms (esp at night), which in other countries is a non issue, I suspect Dorothy having finally been able to settle and grow some golden year roots wouldn’t be thrilled. Maybe not even make it by morning coffee and Garth saying, “So I’ve been asked about the future party leader…”, reply ‘No.’ Without missing a beat or even looking up and a grunt from Bandit to seal it. “More coffee?” …and subject done. It’s enough she’s been a blog and email widow. Just my guess. As much as you’d make a great leader you’ve both paid your dues and worked hard for the life you now have. WHY would you upend it for political life…again? Besides you can’t leave Dorothy and Bandit alone to play host to the growing list of GF blog dog tourists to Lunenberg in search of their leader. More time for golf too.

#48 Bert on 01.24.20 at 4:31 pm

“When conservatives were compassionate.” This is why they need you! Mackay is a tool.

#49 Leftover on 01.24.20 at 4:32 pm

Garth, I believe that would be washboard abs and chiseled physique, but I’ve never seen you naked.

Please, please do not take that as bait.

#50 earthboundmisfit on 01.24.20 at 4:32 pm

All transgressions could have been forgiven had it not been for the beard and the Hummer.

#51 Tater on 01.24.20 at 4:32 pm

RE the MBA debate, they are still valuable but only if you want to go in certain areas in finance. IB, PE, asset management (though CFA is almost equal here), getting in to the sales and trading rotation programs etc. All those jobs leads to mid 6 figures and up. Pretty much anything else, you’re better off working and getting your employer to pay for an executive MBA at some point.

And Dog Thoughts person: you are an incredibly poor copy of Thoughts of a Dog on twitter. Just stop.

#52 n1tro on 01.24.20 at 4:32 pm

Wow…just wow. That is the idea coming from someone with a “PhD” in Economics.

Gives new meaning to “dumbest smart person”.

Garth, for all the reasons you mention not to run, are the exact reasons you should. I’m sure the majority of Canadians don’t give a crap what “Ottawa” wants.

Take the leadership, win the election, appoint a deputy PM and have that chump do all your bidding. Once the deputy PM is less green, hand the reigns over. Retire. Save Canada in the process.

#53 slam on 01.24.20 at 4:33 pm

You have my vote!

#54 Camille on 01.24.20 at 4:33 pm

I thought you were quitting! I want to read this blog for at least a little while longer. I enjoy it. I was a liberal before I became a conservative. I think you would certainly have every reader here’s vote and mine. Hahaha on the comic.

#55 TurnerNation on 01.24.20 at 4:34 pm

Stephen who?

#56 Sold Out on 01.24.20 at 4:35 pm

Meanwhile some Boomer, and presumed Twitter virgin, at StatsCan has their thumbs confiscated after asking the most transparently stupid poll question ever.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StatCan_eng/status/1220782465528352768

#57 DON on 01.24.20 at 4:37 pm

#33 Dog Thoughts on 01.24.20 at 3:37 pm

Good Morning!

today the human made waffles. and I got one!

All I can say is never give up on your dreams.
***

Loves these, reminds me of Saturday night live or the cat diaries. Gotta edited the story with my dogs.

“Today the human made waffles. and I got one!

All I can say is never give up on your dreams.”

And… when the forgetting human turned away, I jumped up and took 3 more of the counter.

All I can say is never stop reaching for your dreams.

#58 mike from mtl on 01.24.20 at 4:39 pm

#14 Crisse de câlice de tabarnak d’esti de sacrament on 01.24.20 at 2:39 pm
…..Careful now, you’ll end up with something like Griffintown. Unplanned condo towers, no parks, no schools, just constant construction and nowhere to park.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Hehe nice name.

Agreed, perfect example of letting condo developers free reign. That area makes no sense to live there when for almost the same price you can be slightly north and be in the real city with services and so on.

Another area is that ‘sud ouest’, which was an industrial waste land until the condos sprouted up in the last few years. Like Old Montreal, lots close up at 5, there’s no metro, post office or schools, 1 grocery store, best of all you MUST own a car to do anything or take your chances with the STM bus!

#59 Alberta Ed on 01.24.20 at 4:40 pm

I’d add another reason (well, two) why Canadian houses are unaffordable:

Medieval construction methods — piece-by-piece construction on site instead of using high quality modular units such as Structural Insulated Panels;

Red tape.

#60 FreeBird on 01.24.20 at 4:43 pm

Here’s video to go with the Economist article linked in post… https://youtu.be/kkVEt5tC2xU

#61 MoistVan on 01.24.20 at 4:50 pm

Reply to #27:

Yeah, that “fee” sounds a lot like “rent.”

If you’re the one living in the house, why not just admit what’s going on and rent the whole house? Or, suck it up and buy the whole thing if you want to own?

If you’re the one not living in the house, it’s just like being a landlord except now your emotionally-invested tenant is in charge of all the selling decisions.

How is this an improvement for either party over the current system?

#62 DON on 01.24.20 at 4:55 pm

#26 leebow on 01.24.20 at 3:13 pm

Garth,

May be winning is not the ultimate goal of running? You know that you don’t need to prove anything to anybody. Just saying those critically important things to the wide audience in debates, or on TV in a non-judgmental way could substantially change the public discourse. And things do need to change.

Somebody has to be the voice of reason. I would donate to your campaign.
**************

Not a bad idea…Trump basically did the same or similar in his own way.

Then Garth, could go in speaking on his terms and see where things lay, regardless the message is expanded to a greater audience and an alternative perspective to re-set the bar. Just sow the seeds of change.

Harper is no longer on the throne Garth. Challenging the status quo may been a sweep into the PM position. Conservatives are demanding more than cosmetic changes if not they risk fragmentation. I am a PC. Maybe we haven’t reached the tipping point yet. Just throw the name in with a statement on where you stand and roll the dice. Plus revenge is best served cold and indirectly, if not directly.

On a side note, I wonder what dirt Trump has managed to dig up on his rivals (using government sources) and will use during the election.

#63 Parksville Prankster on 01.24.20 at 5:03 pm

If I promise to put it on my lawn every time there’s a municipal, provincial, or federal election and agree to pay the shipping, would you send me one of your retro “Elect Garth” signs?

#64 Ray on 01.24.20 at 5:10 pm

I would feel much safer and less stressed economically with Garth in charge.

#65 Rico on 01.24.20 at 5:18 pm

How about a sliding capital gains tax on real estate profits based on how long you have lived in it?
< 1 year taxed at 100%
<2 years taxed at 75%
<3 years taxed at 50%
5 years taxed at 0%

#66 BobDaBuilda on 01.24.20 at 5:37 pm

Hey Garth,

You always talk about Mr. Market ultimately being the decider on these things.

If this current trend keeps up, or Poloz’s wacky idea actually comes to fruition, what comes next?

The U.S. in 2008 redux?

And what of your prediction of the boomer wave passing on their properties to family as they start to leave this world behind?

#67 Sail Away on 01.24.20 at 5:40 pm

#36 Bill Grable on 01.24.20 at 3:53 pm

Mr. Turner – a large and ominous Black Swan is going to impact everything – the outbreak of a very infectious new virus.

——————————————–

Then invest in Alpha Pro Tech. They make protective equipment for infectious diseases and are up 70% plus this week.

Perceived or real crisis can be lucrative. If you’re going to be a doomer, may as well be a rich doomer.

#68 Stone on 01.24.20 at 5:44 pm

This is the reason why, today, I’m announcing I will not run for leader of the Conservative party. I’m unelectable. Dead meat.

———

Well duh! You have some moral fibre and you still have a soul. Need I say more?

#69 Chris on 01.24.20 at 5:44 pm

You’re wrong Garth, a huge group of people want a PM that uses words like “moister” and “horny”. We would greatly prefer someone who talks like they are still on the playground while behaving like a responsible adult instead of the junk we have now fumbling attempts to talk like adults and acting like they are still on the playground.

#70 Big Tony on 01.24.20 at 5:45 pm

Long time reader.

Garth, please run and save the cons.

I and all I know would 100% vote for you.

Save the country.

#71 Guillaume on 01.24.20 at 5:50 pm

Garth, you can still do what Max did ?

#72 akashic record on 01.24.20 at 5:50 pm

Are we now entitled forever for the benefit of low interest rate fueled portfolio investment returns, that we have been receiving since 2008?

Or will we be, at least, entitled to get our free anti-entitlement shots administered, to save ourselves from this horrible contagious disease?

#73 Millennial Realist on 01.24.20 at 5:51 pm

Too bad, Garth.

You’re the only Boomer Con I would even consider voting for.

It’s alright, we’ll take over soon enough!

#74 akashic record on 01.24.20 at 5:56 pm

#65 Rico on 01.24.20 at 5:18 pm

How about a sliding capital gains tax on investment profits based on how long you have held the specific stock, bond, etc., plus no claiming investment loss?
< 1 year taxed at 100%
<2 years taxed at 75%
<3 years taxed at 50%
5 years taxed at 0%

#75 Ace on 01.24.20 at 6:00 pm

Agree with #41 wallflower. Seeing the same thing in my neighbourhood and surrounding area (north GTA).. Houses sold in 2016-18 taking small to huge losses. Government is making final attempts to prop up the market with whatever they’re doing.

#76 Dutchy on 01.24.20 at 6:04 pm

And yet…., we all have to live in some sort of shelter.

If owning homes is accepted as financial suicide,
where would you find a rental ??

Are all RE “investors” dumb people ?

#77 Coastal Zapper on 01.24.20 at 6:05 pm

Mr. Turner

I’m guessing Bill Morneau has Morneau Shepell heavily invested in the housing market and does not want the housing market to collapse/deflate.

Is this a possibility?

#78 I would be ... on 01.24.20 at 6:16 pm

happy to sell half my house to the government and continue to live here. Beats a reverse mortgage anyday.

#79 Darren on 01.24.20 at 6:32 pm

This Government has turned our middle class into the working poor. Instead of fixing the problem with housing affordability they allow the rich once again to take advantage of our fading middle class sickening. The rich get richer .The Canadian dream is long gone.

#80 George on 01.24.20 at 6:41 pm

It’s a game I cannot play. Stephen Harper wanted zero down payments and 40-year mortgages. I fought. I lost. His boot print is still on my butt. At least I was right.

………

no you weren’t,unfortunate that u STILL dont get it. It does appear blogging brings u peace, albiet transient

and yes, you CANT play the game anymore. Got that right

stay well

#81 jajaja on 01.24.20 at 6:42 pm

MCGA… nah I was kidding: moved to Florida: MAGA

#82 IHCTD9 on 01.24.20 at 6:52 pm

#76 world traveller on 01.24.20 at 2:09 pm
Toyota and other Japanese brands tend to use older tech but their reliability is high as it is proven tech. Other brands especially from the big three try new tech on their buyers which turn into beta testers.
——

That is true with Ford, but Dodge’s “HEMI” has been around for 17 years, and is still an old school cam in block pushrod V8.

GM’s LS turns 23 this year and is the most successful V8 ever produced. Also a cam in block pushrod V8. These engines in stock form are hideously strong with hundreds if not thousands of examples where factory OEM “stock block” engines are making over 1000 hp SAE net via boost and N2O.

There are a handful of 7 second drag cars sporting factory production line GM LS rotating assemblies. For context, the 0-60mph (0-100 km/hr) time for a mid 7 second car is about 3/4 of one second.

As a side note, the 8.1 litre (496ci) V8 in my truck was the last iteration of the Mark IV Big Block Chevy which was introduced in 1965 in the Corvette, and was discontinued in 2009, a 44 year production run!

#83 I'm Alright Jack on 01.24.20 at 6:56 pm

Good to see you won’t be running, Garth. Politics today is not for the best and brightest.

#84 John Gate on 01.24.20 at 6:58 pm

“The two reasons your daughter can’t afford a house? Interest rates kept too low for too long […] Plus, a tax regime that fuels real estate speculation. ”

Plus unlimited extra people, forever. Kind of important, that one.

#85 Ronaldo on 01.24.20 at 6:58 pm

Shawn

Besides lack of places to build apartments and houses what other factors are pushing up costs and can’t any of them be dealt with?
——————————————————————
Isn’t most of the land owned by private developers? I know that back in 06 I had read that there was a 20 year supply of land around Sylvan Lake that was owned by private developers. If that is the case and these developers are controlling the building of homes and apartments, that may be part of the reason for the shortage which I don’t believe exists. I recall prior to 06 lots in that area could be had for around $35000. A couple years later that was up to around $65000. Maybe time the government took back control and then maybe prices would be more reasonable. There should not be a monopoly on residential real estate.

#86 Cici on 01.24.20 at 7:02 pm

#3 JuliaS

Yup, and what effect do you think that would have on house prices? So, the typical family would end up shelling out close to what they’re already currently paying for a whole home on just half a house.

And this in an indebted nation pickled in debt where a large majority of speckers aren’t making enough to cover the carrying costs of their “investments”.

And now the great indebted will have to factor in extra legal and administration costs (who pays for damage, who’s responsible for renos and who profits from them in the event of a sale, what happens when one party wants to sell????), not to mention higher taxes, of course since there are now more parties involved and more buy/sell transactions.

Shouldn’t a man in Poloz’ position be a bit more financially astute? Of course he must be, so my guess is he’s using his position to tow the line for some lobbyists and/or special interest groups who want to cash in on this becoming policy.

#87 the ryguy - In cabo on 01.24.20 at 7:03 pm

At this point no one smart enough to be PM would want the job. You get like $350k/year, of course if you don’t include all the shady backroom deals undoubtedly taking place. Regardless, thats a quarter for Garth. Why would he, or any successful above 100 IQ person, want to throw their hat in this ring? To be called a racist, sexist, and every other ist word the left has created? Lol, not gonna happen in Canada. Scheer had his faults, he lacked charisma and definitely had a deer in the headlights look; But he isn’t an evil guy. Look at the sh*t he took from the media and the left. Then ask who would volunteer to receive the same treatment? There will NEVER be another conservative federal government. Sox getting a 2nd term was proof, there is no hope.

As a nation we are at best treading water. ‘Entitlements’ lead to dependance, to gain power you need to offer more than the last guy, thus creating more unfunded liabilities. As this goes on the wealthy & mobile leave, the mob becomes larger until…well until doomsday. It’s a vicious cycle that a Country can never pull out of. The very mention of cutting back government spending is met with venom..the most basic economic concepts are treated like Mein Kampf.

But hey..up until then you can always tap into your “hard earned equity”, while of course deferring your property taxes in the hopes that maybe “budgets balance themselves”.

Lol, welcome to clown world..honk honk.

#88 Useless on 01.24.20 at 7:05 pm

Who says it needs to be a private investor. Our government can already be in at 10 percent with first time home buyers. Soon that goes to 20, then 50, then 75, anything to keep the party going…then what’s another 25 percent.

Nasdrovie Juri Trudov

#89 Cbo on 01.24.20 at 7:08 pm

I mean, if you run and win, good for you along with the rest of the country.
If you lose, likely still a win for Turner Investments as you spread the contagion of financial literacy.

What do you have to lose?

#90 Barb on 01.24.20 at 7:09 pm

Idiotic idea, Mr. Poloz.

Good riddance.
Don’t let the door hit you in the bum…

#91 Lead Paint on 01.24.20 at 7:13 pm

Churchill became Prime Minister at 65… worked out pretty well for everyone.

#92 Zed on 01.24.20 at 7:15 pm

I think that a good way to reduce the price of RE is to reduce the amount people can pay for a property. If we increase the required downpayment (min. 10%), remove the RRSP homebuyer plan, increase the minimum downpayment with CMHC to 20% (this means that the banks would really check the income of the borrowers if less than 20% down).

But maybe, the only thing that would lower RE is if people stopped thinking that RE was the only game in town.

The fact the personal use RE produce tax free gains and that a person can be house rich/cash poor and collect OAS or other government money while another person who has income (for the same wealth) will pay more in taxes and collect less.

Maybe a wealth tax would be a solution, as long as it is revenue neutral for the governments.

#93 Shawn Allen on 01.24.20 at 7:19 pm

Housomg Scarcity and Cost

#43 wallflower on 01.24.20 at 4:14 pm
#25 Shawn Allen on 01.24.20 at 3:07 pm

Scarcity. Total chimera. It is something else.

My building had at least 10 empty units (total 48) for several years. Now, still has a few!
Have you walked around Vancouver? Loads of uninhabited houses – some are obvious to the eye and others can be established by talking to the neighbours.
My son’s GF family bought a downtown Vancouver condo two years ago that was 20 years uninhabited. Since day the tower was built.

*******************************
Agreed, that is weird. An actual inquiry is needed to discover all the reasons and problems.

Alberta Ed at 59 makes a good point about piece by piece construction. Houses should be a mostly manufactured product at this point with the resulting far lower costs. Also agree with him on Red Tape.

That genius Warren Buffett by the way sells vast numbers of manufactured homes each year. Finances them too. Clayton Homes. Saves people vast amounts of money. (And yes there are a few complaints about it because after all no good deed goes unpunished and certainly nothing notable escapes criticism.)

Rule Number 4: All criticism of Warren Buffett is unfounded. He is a paragon of virtue. Only the uninformed criticize him.

#94 Ustabe on 01.24.20 at 7:19 pm

Harper is no longer on the throne Garth.
He sure seems to be the puppet master behind the scenes.

Conservatives are demanding more than cosmetic changes if not they risk fragmentation.
The backroom boys, the war room boys, sure don’t seem eager for constructive change. Already dealing with a social conservative would be leader’s public statements.

Just throw the name in with a statement on where you stand and roll the dice.
Throwing your name in comes with a $300,000 non-refundable cash payment to the CPC. Maybe Garth could get a HELOC?

#95 yorkville renter on 01.24.20 at 7:38 pm

#41 and #75 – I’m not seeing price gains YoY in Toronto… maybe the low-end, but $1.2mm+ are basically the same as last year

#96 Shawn Allen on 01.24.20 at 7:43 pm

Why don’t cars cost more due to low interest rates?

Notice that low interest rates and even 0% financing had seemingly zero upward impact on car and vehicle prices.

Why? Ample supply and competition along all aspects of the manufacturing and retail chain.

With a proper supply response I am not sure that low interest rates should have had such a big impact. There was always going to be some impact becasue land close to the City center is finite. But why should low interest rates drive up the cost of new drywall and chipwood and such and especially of 50 year old unrenovated bungalows with shag carpet (aside form the land cost).

Was the limited land near the City center (exacerbated by zoning restrictions) enough to explain the big impact of low interest rates? There should have been far less impact on the cost to construct giant condo apartment buildings which need little land.

Low interest rates, all else equal, should lower what needs to be charged for rent (to make a reasonable profit). All else was not equal.

#97 Re-Cowtown on 01.24.20 at 8:11 pm

Poloz’s idea is about the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Does the investor pay for half of the taxes? Half of the new roof? Half of the hot tub or swimming pool?

When two people own the house, no one owns the house.

#98 NoName on 01.24.20 at 8:14 pm

Meanwhile at Davaos…

https://twitter.com/Guruleaks1/status/1220766595120816129

https://mobile.twitter.com/Guruleaks1/status/1220761620089053185

#99 Apocalypse2020 on 01.24.20 at 8:18 pm

Best to spend your time preparing for survival, not in petty politics, sir. Survival should be your purpose now.

“Doomsday Clock nears apocalypse over climate and nuclear fears”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51213185

And as #36 Bill Grable said:

“Mr. Turner – a large and ominous Black Swan is going to impact everything – the outbreak of a very infectious new virus.”

“China’s bid to contain a deadly new virus by placing cities of millions under quarantine is an unprecedented undertaking but it is unlikely to stop the disease spreading, experts warn.”

An economic Black Swan will absolutely happen, at the confluence of health emergencies, impeachment chaos, war in the Middle east and elsewhere, and climate emergencies combined with debt-induced economic strife.

2020 brings it all together. Most of us will not survive this year, or do so only barely.

PREPARE

#100 Blackdog on 01.24.20 at 8:19 pm

Damn. I had been thinking today (never before) that I should post a comment on GT’s blog to suggest he run for Conservative leader. Seriously.

Then I see this.

I am moist disappointed now.

#101 the Jaguar on 01.24.20 at 8:40 pm

Jaguar may also be ‘out’ and go under the radar for a while. Two reports in the media today that Michelle Rempel (god help us) might be a candidate for the PC leadership and even Christy Clarke’s name was mentioned in an OP-Ed piece. Mercy. Double Mercy.
This is beyond the pale. All reason has been thrown under the bus. And while MacKay is very qualified at this point there is no compelling evidence that inspires back flips. This is a new more ‘social media’ time we live in. All these ‘prospective’ leadership candidates announcing they might be “in” and then further announcing they are “out” doesn’t shout confidence.
Time to check out of the Hotel California for a while and do a deep dive on more pressing issues. Ya’ll go follow the ‘shiny’ things, cause I just caught a glimpse of something very interesting on the horizon.

#102 Treasure Island CEO - 107,098,434.88 Offshore on 01.24.20 at 8:44 pm

If government wanted to solve the housing affordability crisis and housing in general, they would.

Gov. would restrict homes for living in and only allow 1 home per family to be owned. And you would have to prove you live and work locally with a CRA account tied to your income/background.

But Garth and others think protectionism like this, anti-free trade, and anti globalization is the wrong solution like what the orange guy does, yet this is the only solution for local working families to ever have a future in Canada like experienced up until 2002 by all Canadians when the country drifted away and ramped up selling out forever. The world has changed and Canada has not, making it a target to turn into a 3rd country as seen by locals whose standard of living is eroding evidenced by next of kin affording nothing and having massive debt.

When a business does not change with the times it goes out of business. Same with the Country, except instead of going out of business, the business is being merged and control by a bigger corp as in other countries taking advantage of us and becoming owners of us.

Simple.

There would be no offshore money, people buying from other countries, locals having massive portfolios of multiple homes they rent out, etc.

So, why don’t they do it? Because they are in the business of selling out our country for the benefit of GDP.

Real estate is the entire economy in Canada and if they stopped this business of selling to whoever, the economy would stop.

Ain’t gonna happen. Instead, they will provide suggestions like having an owner own whatever percentage possible to keep the party going and have money flowing in. 100 year amorts, zero down. You name it. Don’t fight the feds.

#103 espressobob on 01.24.20 at 8:50 pm

Bitter pasts usually builds better character moving forward.

How is that so bad?

#104 Nonplused on 01.24.20 at 8:58 pm

The Poloz idea is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. This guy ran the BoC?

Let’s think this thing through with just a tiny bit of economic theory. We’ll forget the fact that there probably isn’t a lot of money out there that wants to invest in real estate without getting rent for their efforts (there isn’t).

If people can buy a house for half price and live in it fully, what does that do to the effective cost of the house for the buyer? Well, it looks like the cost of the house is half what it is now. What happens when things drop in price by one half? Typically demand goes way up. That’s why stores put stuff on sale when they need to get rid of stock. Nothing motivates buyers like lower prices. So demand for housing will go through the roof under this scheme.

But what happens to the actual price of something when demand goes through the roof? Well, the price goes up until demand drops. So if this scheme could be made to work all that would happen is the price of housing would double, and we’d be right back where we started in terms of affordability only everyone would only own half their house. However the companies that did invest will see their money double.

So in short, the idea is a complete crock. I can’t believe Poloz actually said something so embarrassing.

——————–

Taxing things does not make them cheaper, even in the case that it reduces demand. A capital gains tax on primary residences, like land transfer taxes and “empty house” taxes, is simply a boon for landlords and real estate investors. They already pay capital gains taxes if and when they sell, which they hardly ever do, so all these various taxes do is tilt the market further in favor of landlords and away from owner-occupiers. Changing the economics of home ownership may well discourage people from buying, but they still need a place to live so investors will benefit from both lower prices and higher rents. This, like most government ideas, will not help the people it is meant to.

The land transfer tax in Vancouver is already so punishingly high that I would think that anybody who might consider that they have to move at some point in the future due to a job change, divorce, because they have kids, or because the kids moved out (finally!) would not be interested in buying. But they need a place to rent! In comes the landlords again. But it can’t change the supply or demand for housing. It just changes who owns it, in favor of landlords and corporations.

——————

If we are going to start treating primary residences, which are a household or personal item, as a business, why not treat the whole family budget as a business? Extending the logic of capital gains taxes on primary residences means there should be write-offs for mortgage expenses, maintenance, vehicle depreciation, computer depreciation, renovations, maybe even yard maintenance. After all a landlord or corporation can write all these things off.

—————–

The good news for Home Depot will be that a straight out capital gains tax on primary residences will cause the renovation industry to basically stop, so they can lay off a bunch more people. Let’s take the case of my neighbors, who have fled to the Cayman Islands due to the Canadian tax code. However, prior to selling their house here they did some some significant renovations. Let’s say they did $100,000 in renos (I don’t know the exact amount) to make the house more marketable, and let’s say it did add exactly $100,000 to the value of the house. But wait, that’s a capital gain! So when the house sells he has to, in addition to the $100,000 he spent on the renovations, also upon selling send $25,000 to the government! So we see this proposal, like all taxes, is an economy killer. Would he have done the renos if he knew he would be taxed $25,000 on money he spent? Probably no. He made no gain. That means all the people who made their living for 4 months painting and installing cabinets and redoing the floors would have had to find other work. Home Depot would have sold less stuff. They might therefore have paid less taxes themselves and sent somebody home.
There is nothing good about this proposal.

——————–

You can’t tax or borrow a nation to prosperity. It’s been tried many times, and all attempts have ended in disaster.

#105 Vince on 01.24.20 at 9:00 pm

It is what it is. The government is doing all it can to make house prices go up. I’m fine with that. The reason why is the government spends $55k a year on my family in child care and baby benefits. I contribute very little in tax by contributing the max to my RRSP so I get maximum benefits. The only people struggling are the ones who aren’t getting these benefits. Also my rent is low due to rent control. Good thing I rented a unit from an actual company instead of those speculators. I’m stuck where I am but I’m managing to put away $4k a month so ya win some ya lose some. Also I do absolutely no overtime. That’s for suckers.

#106 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.24.20 at 9:13 pm

Can you at least help Andrew Sheer and the Conservatives find a faint hope?

#107 Whoooaaaaaaa on 01.24.20 at 9:17 pm

I am writing your name on the ballot !

#108 oh bouy on 01.24.20 at 9:17 pm

@#41 wallflower on 01.24.20 at 4:10 pm
___________________________________

not the case in Toronto unfortuately

#109 Sail Away on 01.24.20 at 9:19 pm

#43 wallflower on 01.24.20 at 4:14 pm

Scarcity. Total chimera. It is something else.

My building had at least 10 empty units (total 48) for several years. Now, still has a few!

Have you walked around Vancouver? Loads of uninhabited houses – some are obvious to the eye and others can be established by talking to the neighbours.

My son’s GF family bought a downtown Vancouver condo two years ago that was 20 years uninhabited. Since day the tower was built.

———————————

Well, that’s odd. I thought Van council needed to expropriate the Sahota’s buildings because there was no available housing?

Huh

#110 WUL on 01.24.20 at 9:25 pm

But, I’ll continue to cross boarders and accept borders in my house.

My vigilance wains from time to time.

WUL

#111 Van on 01.24.20 at 9:50 pm

You have my vote Gart! You have done more for the masses than many politicians.

#112 Scott Cordian on 01.24.20 at 9:54 pm

B.S., give the real estate market a 55% haircut. Raise interest rates to 7% right away and increase down payment to 25%. Do that and it will deflate the big bubble real estate gasbag in months.

Also, give everyone a 25% raise in 2020 and no more minimum wage increases or any other of that talk.

#113 Funky on 01.24.20 at 9:55 pm

I heard they were re-tuning the doomsday clock. No surprise there.
I also heard they were looking for a new Bank of Canada chief. Any interest Mr. Turner?

#114 WUL on 01.24.20 at 10:12 pm

Garth,

Odd. Have you adopted a conservative drive to austerity and locked out the Amazons until their wage demands are dropped?

My comment at #110 was the second in rapid succession and they appeared in order awaiting moderation.

No loss, really. Pointless drivel from the Taiga.

I want this month’s subscription payment back though.

Thx,

WUL

#115 WUL on 01.24.20 at 10:16 pm

Garth,

I see what you did there. That’s cool. Solicitor client privilege. Not a word from me.

Luv ya,

WUL

#116 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 01.24.20 at 11:14 pm

Canada has twice the area that the Roman Empire had at its peak. Yet we force more and more job seekers into overcrowded mega cities with stupid environmental regulations that cost jobs in our rural towns, small and medium size cities.

Canada does not realize the solution to our so called housing crises is to stop these stupid environmentalists from blocking rural development.

As a realist I realize that rational rural development polices such as building pipelines won’t happen in socialist, virtue signalling Canada. This is especially true when voters in our overcrowded cities are so out of touch with the people in the rest of Canada’s vast land mass. This is why I support Alberta Independence.

#117 A Question on 01.24.20 at 11:24 pm

“Nobody’s going to vote for an iconoclast with facial hair, cowboy boots, a used bank and a Chow dog who says we must cure this affliction”

This ties into the question I asked you here about a week ago, but which you did not answer. If you have a proposal to cure the affliction that does not cause a financal crusis for the masses, many might vote for you. But it appears nobody has a temedy to cure the patient while sending the patient into a deep coma first, with no guarantees he will come out of it all the better. It appears you do not have a proposal either, correct?

#118 Cassidy McGonzo on 01.24.20 at 11:41 pm

https://torontosun.com/news/world/caught-on-camera-infected-people-fall-down-on-streets-due-to-virus

Meanwhile, CBC asks people not to buy a mask. It doesn’t look good for tourism.

#119 Not So New guy on 01.24.20 at 11:47 pm

#11 Sanga on 01.24.20 at 2:14 pm

Hold on…Stop the presses! Nice try Garth, now we know your running. There is no way T2 was born, not possible. You almost had me there.

====================================

I’m not so sure about that Sanga. Many people will swear on a stack of bibles that T2 was born yesterday

#120 Parsonage on 01.24.20 at 11:50 pm

Garth re #14 I hope the name does not translate the way I think it does.

#121 joblo on 01.25.20 at 12:36 am

Kanada needs more trailer parks!

#122 Robert Ash on 01.25.20 at 1:00 am

Garth; Interesting commentary, and I am a little Naive, in thinking our Goverment, has no intuition, in “How To’s”…ie.. get the country’s Economy rolling. So there is pretty much just Housing, and the pyramid charges that go with one single asset class… Not sustainable with this Nonsense… So.. no clever thinking, or methods to encourage productivity, and Investment in Canadian Small business…
My question is as an unsucessful, but Altruistic Politician, how do we clean the slate, and make Democracy work for the average common sense Canadian… Should we organize, at Rotary, or Church/Worship groups, start a activist Blog… Democracy and fairness and common sense shouldn’t be this hard to achieve.
An example of regressive thinking is Our Energy Sector.. Climate Change is real.. but for example, would we not be limiting the world production of GHG’s if we consumed only our Own Nations energy, and left Saudi, Nigera, etc, etc… to sell elsewhere, while keeping jobs, cash flow, and controlling the transisition to Renewables, at our Pace and Specific needs… Could we not use this major Export to assist the World with alternative methods, of Ethical production..ie LNG,. Instead it seems, the CBC, and other Media, stake out a position and that is it… We need some help that is for sure.

#123 KoniJr on 01.25.20 at 1:08 am

WTF, that’s debt slave! If that was implemented the sheeple will sign up just own a box in the sky, because they would never be able to afford a SFH. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that from the realtor cartel but the soon to be the former governor of BOC, I must be having a nightmare, I hope to wake up soon.

If this mess isn’t corrected or dealt with, no amount of child benefits is going to make couples want to have kids because of all the debt stress. I see a lot of red pill guys, no kids, dating here and there, travelling, enjoying life stress free. Women hitting the wall, she has a career, in her 30’s, independent, now she wants to have kids but the guys she wants are off the market, the guys that are available are beneath her, because she’s never had to settle.

Canada is going through what Japan went through 30 years ago and the Canadian governments solution is more immigration, instead of trying to solve the root problems as Garth has addressed two days ago. I’m all for immigration, heck I’m Somali/Canadian. What a sad world we live in the people that should be running the government are running a free blog and the government is run by the swamp.

Love your blog Garth, thank you for all the financial advice. One of my bucket list is to thank you personally!

#124 raisemyrent on 01.25.20 at 2:58 am

The biggest thing T2 did is getting rid of Harper. Baby Bush was out of control. Sure he has no real plan but Canadians aren’t Americans and Harper can get old and fade into oblivion.

#125 Reality is stark on 01.25.20 at 3:38 am

High property values give the government justification for much higher property taxes. There is nothing to fix here at all.
Just take all the money from the people.
As more folks can’t afford to buy a home they won’t care if you triple property taxes in 10 years.
Take it all until there is no private wealth left.
This is a great problem for the government because they know where the money is and it is easy to tax.
As the socialists run more deficits they will eventually need to rape the wealth of property owners.
It’s one big party until you run out of other people’s money.

#126 Linda on 01.25.20 at 4:10 am

Cheap housing, isn’t. Think about all those badly constructed condos where the property is literally falling apart within a couple of years of occupancy. Builder long gone & owners stuck with a whopping repair bill. The cut corners aren’t exclusive to condos, either.

As for the cost of housing, think outside the box. New builds need infrastructure – water, sewer, storm sewer, street lights, fire hydrants, roads & sidewalks. Most municipalities can’t afford to build the infrastructure up front, so the deal is the developers build it as part of developing the land. The municipality charges development levy fees – the estimated cost to replace/maintain said infrastructure once the responsibility becomes theirs. This cost is passed on to the consumer along with all the other associated taxes. Housing is taxed, yes? Plus the builder/developer needs to make a profit – the reason the business exists in the first place.

As for older neighborhoods undergoing ‘urban renewal’ – well, the infrastructure in those older neighborhoods frequently needs renewing too. If for instance a whole bunch of multistory buildings go up, increasing population density, turns out that the older infrastructure is inadequate. In Calgary they had to suspend development in one quadrant of the city because the local sewer line was ‘at capacity’ due to increased population levels. Let’s just say that was one pipeline that received regulatory approval & was built in record time!

So if local municipalities can’t afford to build the new infrastructure & the old infrastructure no longer has the capacity to handle the increased load from redevelopment & needs replacing, who ultimately ends up footing the bill? Hint – it won’t be the developer/builder/previous owner of the property.

#127 David on 01.25.20 at 4:58 am

I actually think this blog actually works for you and your future campaign (more than you realize), especially with the newer generations who are struggling for the very reasons you emphasize each day.

Such a shame, I’d totally vote for you. (…and. My mom would for sure)

#128 George Santos on 01.25.20 at 5:50 am

China in a panic, Canada in denial. This can’t end well. Suit up.

https://www.spencerfernando.com/2020/01/23/chinas-government-is-in-total-panic-mode-and-that-should-scare-the-world/

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.20 at 7:59 am

@#99 Apocalypse 2020
““Doomsday Clock nears apocalypse over climate and nuclear fears”

+++++

Dont forget exploding stars “near” us……

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/betelgeuse-supernova/605251/

……give or take 1000 years

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.20 at 8:09 am

@#118 McGonzo
“….CBC asks people not to buy a mask….”

+++++

God bless the taxpayer funded dinosaur.
They actually care about the people that fund them.
Who knew.

Masks?
More plastic fodder for the landfill to be excavated in 10,000 years.

Wanna stop the virus from spreading?
Cover when sneezing.
Wash your hands.
Wear gloves when touching elevator buttons.
Stock up on chicken soup.

This concludes Dr. Fartz safety seminar.
No charge for the sage advice.
Best deal of the day.

#131 maxx on 01.25.20 at 8:15 am

Poloz’s new scheme is farcical.

Screams of backed-into-a-corner D.E.S.P.E.R.A.T.I.O.N.. Doesn’t have a clue as to how to staunch and reverse this fiscal cancer which is spreading faster by the year.

A convoluted concoction which would only benefit investors. The “I’m alright Jack” meme is alive and well.

Housing, such as this fiscal monster has been forced to evolve, is destroying Canada’s rotting finances with increasing velocity and is clearly eroding our social fabric, pitting one generation against another.

“Leaders” have neither the will nor the guts to fix this problem.

Go away, guv. We’ve had enough.

#132 maxx on 01.25.20 at 8:26 am

@ #14

Perfect moniker to describe the incredulity experienced when witnessing manifest gargantuan stupidity. For instance, as might be heard in our household during the 6 o’clock news.

Très drôle….well done!

#133 oh bouy on 01.25.20 at 8:32 am

@#128 George Santos on 01.25.20 at 5:50 am
China in a panic, Canada in denial. This can’t end well. Suit up.

______________

lol george, you’re letting spencer get to you.

#134 Emmentaler on 01.25.20 at 8:59 am

Yes Garth, you’re too old, and too loose with your words, and too keen to point out everything that is wrong with the established political parties, so you could never be elected. Just like Donald Trump could never get elected. I mean how could we have a world leader that blogs every day, or tweets every third thought he has? It’s impossible, right? Only difference between you and the orange guy? You’re not a completely unbalanced narcisist blowhard. Which is why you’re the guy for us Canucks – and why O’Leary didn’t quite cut mustard. Oh and you don’t have a train wreck family that we love to watch so your entourage is slightly less entertaining than the Maralargo love boat show – but I hear people like watching cat and dog videos on the internet…. Doug, Ryan, and Dorothy will take care of your babies (and you), and you’ll be able to keep blogging and claiming you’re just a pathetic human being, which will endear you to the world. Looking forward to watching everyone be proven wrong with their predictions that you won’t stand and can’t be elected.

#135 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.25.20 at 9:06 am

There may be some significant prospects for disruption of real estate if this virus spreads.

I had a beer with a friend working in property sales this week. He told me that in the space of two days, he has now had 4 buyers ask about the ventilation systems in condos and the health of a house seller/whether the family was Asian and had travelled there recently.

He says he has never heard those types of questions before, in over a decade of work in Toronto.

When you think of condo life, you are in your box in the sky, but have no private egress and must pass through hallways and elevators where masses of other (possibly coughing) people go through as well.

For houses, you can step outside into ‘fresh’ air or your car quickly. But for both condos and houses, the interior of the home and the health of the previous occupants may become an issue before you close.

Not to mention the foot and breath traffic of open houses.

If the new virus becomes more like SARS, could this be a trigger event, a domino for real estate?

#136 NoName on 01.25.20 at 9:08 am

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.20 at 8:09 am

What are those gloves made from? Wood?

Anyways I was bored, in 1976, way back than Canada had 6.something hospital beds per 1000, now 2.5 per 1000. In 76, 23 million people lived here, now 37 million. Germs on elevator buttons are least of someone worry…

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.20 at 9:16 am

@#112 Knott Gordian

“…Raise interest rates to 7% right away and increase down payment to 25%. Do that and it will deflate the big bubble real estate gasbag in months….”
+++++

If that was announced and immediately implemented without any warning.
Real estate would deflate in days….
Bankrupting flippers and speccers ( insert Realturds here) ……
Not a bad idea !
:)

#138 Habbit on 01.25.20 at 9:26 am

Hi Garth. Thank you for all you do. I’ve been laid off again second time in three years. I’m 64 with little chance of re employment. We live in Saskatchewan and things are tough here now. We are fortunate and can move from our rental suite to our cabin at buffalo pound lake. My cpp covers everything for the place as it’s paid for. Oas pays vehicle expenses. My wife’s cpp/oas covers our grub and wine lol and still leaves us a few hundred to blow. We have 700 k in rrsp etc to use later should we need care. It’s pathetic I know but that’s reality. We have agreed to finally stop helping our 3 offspring. If we get some jam we’ll be asking for your help and guidance finally. Your blog is a highlight of my day. Thanks again to you your family and the dogs. Good people you are. God bless you all

#139 Dharma Bum on 01.25.20 at 10:28 am

Depressing post today.

Well, you know what they say:
It’s always darkest before dawn.

Sooner or later the tide will turn.

Eventually, this madness will be behind us and a new economic age will dawn.

Just you wait. Patience will be rewarded.

#140 Rexx Rock on 01.25.20 at 10:34 am

It has come down to a real quality of life problem.I have a 71 year old coworker who rents a 1 bedroom with her 36 old son because he has 2 part time jobs and both can’t afford to live on their own.Canada’s government and central bank policy has enslaved millions for just having a roof over their heads.Its an abomination to all Canadians.It will continue and get worse when food,taxes and energy prices increase.
I’m in sunny warm Puerto Vallarta.Met a Calgary couple living here year round because he said the cost of living is to high in Canada.There will be a mass exodus in a few years when retirees come to face with not enough money to live.It will be a real life horror movie and the government will be the director.There is always a option but fear of the unknown seems to stop it.

#141 Blog Bunny on 01.25.20 at 10:43 am

I would vote for you Garth, no matter the party.

#142 IHCTD9 on 01.25.20 at 12:12 pm

#138 Habbit on 01.25.20 at 9:26 am

We are fortunate and can move from our rental suite to our cabin at buffalo pound lake. My cpp covers everything for the place as it’s paid for. Oas pays vehicle expenses. My wife’s cpp/oas covers our grub and wine lol and still leaves us a few hundred to blow. We have 700 k in rrsp etc to use later should we need care. It’s pathetic I know but that’s reality.
———

You are retiring to a paid for cabin on a lake, with all expenses covered by CPP/OAS, plus 700k liquid for backup – and that’s pathetic?

Man, that sound more like a GOAL than an unfortunate circumstance to me!

#143 FreeBird on 01.25.20 at 12:36 pm

#138 Habbit on 01.25.20 at 9:26 am
———————
Agree with #142 IHCTD9 on 01.25.20 at 12:12 pm. You’re doing good for losing their job twice. Enjoy the cabin and each other. Having to cut and or move wood, plus other maintenance on the cabin and cleaner air hopefully away from cell towers will add to your health and peace of mind much more then living in some big city. Look up the The Schumann resonances. Another benefit to living in your cabin. FYI contact Garth to confirm but I think you’ll find you have enough for his firm to help you if that’s what you were talking about.

#144 IHCTD9 on 01.25.20 at 1:10 pm

#140 Rexx Rock on 01.25.20 at 10:34 am
There will be a mass exodus in a few years when retirees come to face with not enough money to live.It will be a real life horror movie and the government will be the director.
——-

It’s happening in stages, and has already started. Expensive big cities lead the charge with young families bailing, seniors cashing out their SFD’s and relocating for retirement, and immigrants throwing in the towel and heading back home after a decade or two of trying to make a go of it in Canada.

Those that decided to move to small town Canada will face big property tax increases for infinity as there is less and less economic activity to tax. At some point, this cash cow will also have its throat cut by government when the high property taxes become a deterrent to selling the property. Sudbury is getting close here in Ontario, a 500,000.00 house will run you over 7K in annual taxes. Add in city water, sewage, etc and you’re looking at near 10k per year in fees just to live in your paid for house. That’s a definite “no deal” for me. Tough times ahead as smaller cities march towards a 100% reliance on taxing big city RE lotto money in the form of property tax.

Decades from now, if nothing changes from current trends; leaving Canada for some cheap sunny location will become a no brainer, and perhaps the only option for many.

#145 Mossy on 01.25.20 at 2:30 pm

#95, #41, #75, I am seeing the same phenom in my area (Halton). Almost everything is selling under asking, and 1m+ houses are sitting on the market for months. Something’s fishy in the RE data.

#146 Beso on 01.25.20 at 3:25 pm

Bravo! Canadians will never forget your courage in fighting a one man war. Shameful history :-(

#147 Linda on 01.25.20 at 3:59 pm

Property taxes are indeed much more expensive in smaller locales. Think about the cost for infrastructure – water, water treatment, sewer, storm sewer, roads, bridges, sidewalks, street lights, fire hydrants, utilities plus services like plowing/sanding/repairing the roads, garbage pickup/removal, fire station. None of that is free or cheap. So if a small town has the infrastructure but doesn’t have the population of a big city to pay for it, the local property tax bill is going to be a lot higher. We looked at the idea of moving to a smaller locale upon retirement, but the lower cost of housing was more than offset by the higher property taxes plus the reduced amenities/services on offer. Big cities attract people for more reasons than jobs alone.

#148 Steven Rowlandson on 01.26.20 at 7:16 am

Ultimately the existing political and financial classes and their works have to be expunged or our people and nation will be. It is a question of to be or not to be.