Where’s real estate going this year?
As mumbled here with numbing repetition, all markets are local. Calgary is sick. Edmonton and the Peg are frozen. Vancouver is still decelerating. Victoria is stable. Toronto is tightening and troublesome. Montreal’s on a roll. Halifax is on hold. Taxes have sucked net worth out of detached houses in YVR and the GTA seems ready to follow suit (higher property tax, an empty house tax). So despite 3% mortgages, rising financial assets and a decent economy, nobody’s getting rich tossing properties. The prohibitive cost of buying and selling means in a relatively static market, the speckers and flippers are handed their butts on a platter.
But what next?
A lot depends on Chateau Bill, Canada’s billionaire finance minister, now working on a budget to be tabled in six weeks or so. The newly-returned and recently-foliaged prime minister gave CB a mandate letter some weeks ago instructing him to review the mortgage stress test and possibly modify it, to render it “more dynamic.”
Huh? Dynamic? Whazzat mean?
In a word, gut it. This is consistent with the thrust of the last election campaign, in which making housing more accessible to needy, moany moisters was a basic theme. The Libs brought in the enhanced shared-equity mortgage, new buyer credits and also seriously goosed the RRSP Home Buyer Plan. The Cons hung their hat on ‘modifying’ the stress test, which really meant defanging it.
As you know, to get a house now buyers must prove they have the income to carry a mortgage of 5%+, even if they’re offered one by a lender at half that cost. The real estate industry has cried foul since inception, arguing about a fifth of all potential purchasers were punted by the test. Of course, realtors are speaking in their own naked self-interest, but the industry has a point. By cutting the house-buying budgets of first-timers, the test pushed demand down the price spectrum and hiked competition for cheaper properties. So they’re not as cheap any more. Condos have appreciated in value at twice the rate of detacheds, for example. Affordability has declined, not improved. (Units in 416 up 8% year/year.)
This week the boss at RBC said this: “The stress test certainly delayed purchases, caused consumers in Canada to look at less expensive homes, and to adjust their desire for the cost of the home they’re purchasing, or delay. I think we have to be a little bit careful how we adjust it. But if done in the right way, and with the right objectives, (it) can be achieved.”
Hmm. Green light for the feds to diddle, it seems, from the nation’s largest bank. Ditto from the biggest real estate marketer, Royal LePage. The CEO, Phil Soper, said this in a news release today: “The federal government has signaled that changes could come to the mortgage stress test mechanism in 2020. The stress test pushed people out of real estate markets across Canada temporarily. For the most part, buyers have adjusted, yet it still represents a significant hurdle as families pursue the dream of owning their own home.”
LePage’s position, like that of the barbarian leader of AB, is the stress test needs to be regional, making it easier to buy in markets which have struggled and (ironically) seen price declines.
But that may not happen, seeing all the Mills who voted for anybody-but-Scheer are concentrated in those areas where real estate is nutso – the GTA and LM. Odds are a stress test adjustment will apply to the entire country, and nowhere will the impact be felt more than in Toronto.
Listings are down there, again. Sales up. Finding a detached house, not condemned, for under $1 million is rare. In mid-town a decent three-bedroom home with parking on a 30-foot lot often goes for $2.5 million or more. Downtown condos for $1.5 million or greater are now common. A thousand dollars a foot is a steal (you can spend two grand for 12 inches in Van these days).
In other words, imagine what unleashing more demand will do, after bottling it up for a couple of years.
By pretending real estate’s a right and everyone should be able to possess some, politicians have created a toxic mix of debt, expectations and hormones. These days the economy is okay, rates are low, credit flows freely and jobs are being minted. But this won’t always be the case. We got a taste of that two days ago, right? You should expect more. This is no time to bulk up on debt, especially when you use extreme 20x leverage to buy an inflated asset with all of your net worth that produces no income, with ridiculous closing costs and non-deductible loan interest.
But that’s not Bill’s world. All hearts and dividends. So you know what’s coming.
111 comments ↓
“You can call a banana a diamond, but it’s still a banana.”
Formations House leak shows need for reforms on creating companies, anti-corruption chief says
https://www.occrp.org/en/29leaks/the-great-bulgarian-chopper-swap
O’Mara’s website advertises the ability to buy “your own offshore bank” for just under 25,000 British pounds.
about how Formations House created a phantom foreign investment zone in Gambia, complete with its own company registry — despite Gambian authorities’ efforts to stop it.
How Fake Banks Got Real SWIFT Codes
“letter of credit” fraud
Iranian Oil in a Gambian Shophouse
Read more about how Formations House relocated Naftiran to Gambia from OCCRP’s partner in the #29leaks project, McClatchy.
https://www.occrp.org/en/29leaks/fancy-gambian-paper
==========
WASHINGTON
About #29Leaks:
Q: What does the name mean?
The collaborative reporting project’s name comes from the address of offshore services provider Formations House, located at the upscale 29 Harley Street in historic central London.
A: What does the leak involve?
The data sifted through, 131 gigabytes worth or roughly a million files, comes from a larger breach at Formations House of almost 450 gigabytes of data. The anti-secrecy group Distributed Denial of Secrets, or DDoS, obtained it and while still planning to make it publicly available first offered investigative journalists a chance to dig through.
The investigative news site Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) created a search engine to allow the Miami Herald, the McClatchy Washington Bureau and other collaborating news organizations to view the data, which included more than 880,000 emails.
Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article238024734.html#storylink=cpyRead more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article238024734.html#storylink=cpy
fake banks ?
A massive trove of documents, data, and recorded phone calls showing how British company Formations House works to hide money for the superrich is being reported on by journalists all over the world, with the first stories dropping at midnight on Wednesday.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/12/04/massive-leak-data-reveals-money-hiding-secrets-superrich-and-only-beginning
“Calgary is sick. Edmonton and the Peg are frozen.”
Which is worse – sick or frozen?
Condos have appreciated in value at twice the rate of detacheds, for example. Affordability has declined, not improved. (Units in 416 up 8% year/year.)
……………………………………………………………
Who in their right mind would purchase a Condo. These things are appreciating at an astonishing proportion due only to the desperation of these millennials inflowing to the market. Useless pieces of concrete where you have uncontrolled fees and insurance rates that make a home look like a steal. That will wipe out your savings hurriedly. Most people don’t even understand that they don’t own the condo just the right to reside in its space. Good luck to the throngs of high-rise seekers I would rather rent a basement than put money into one of those things. Did I mention the rodent and insect complications that communal living creates? Been there done that and never again. But alas the housing market is expected to gain an extra 4-6% again this year again.
Money is Funny
Black Sheep would agree that it has been established on this blog that the chartered banks create most of the money in our economy. In fact, they create the great majority of it.
The central bank has a lot of influence but it does not directly create much new money annually.
The bank regulators have a lot of influence because they impose limits on how much each bank can make loans (which create money). The capital ratios and calculations of risk weighted assets impose limits.
All (okay, most) money leads to banks. Bank deposits created when loans are made tend to never leave the banking system. They certainly leave the original lending bank but they just land in some other bank as money is transferred electronically including by cheque. There is little reason to take out physical cash and when it does come out it tends to soon return to some bank or other.
It is a system that works very well to the benefit of all (except for Stan Brooks of course).
Was thinking I should take Garths advice and sell some stocks soon before the budget.
You know in case the capital gains inclusion rate moves
from 50% to maybe 75%.
Was asking around and was told I might be 9 days too late.If it happens it will probably be changed to include
all capital gains for the year 2020.My question is that likely ?
Hey Garth, I recently read the book that you wrote in 2007 on real estate. Your made prediction that by 2020 the female population of 65-year-old and over would surpass that of 14-year-old and younger years materialized. I think it was a proxy to account for older generation home-sellers vs younger generation home-buyers.
I checked Stats Canada and your prediction materialized. Just wanted to note it here.
It will take a real strong leader to let RE values fall significantly. Too many Canadians have their net worth tied up in RE, and a crash or long slow melt would have serious implications.
No gov’t is going to let the boomers RE pot of gold melt away.
yet the RE cartel will also tout new record prices… suck and blow, amirite?
I really hate that hand heart gesture. Something about it creeps me out.
Odds are a stress test adjustment will apply to the entire country, and nowhere will the impact be felt more than in Toronto.
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This would be good for places like Red Deer where people are having problems getting a mortgage on houses priced at less than $300,000. Can’t imagine it doing much difference to places like Vancr and To where even at zero interest rates houses are not affordable for most. Maybe a time for speckers to be buying in places like Red Deer, Prince George where house prices are basically a downpayment for a house in the lower mainland. Here in Nanaimo where we are seeing houses selling quite well it may cause house prices to rise even more than the 12% or so that they have risen in the past year.
The caption should be
“If I had a heart it would be here”
RE:#5 meslippery on 01.09.20 at 4:03 pm
Was thinking I should take Garths advice and sell some stocks soon before the budget.
========================================
Why sell if you don’t have to? If it does change, just wait until the next government changes the inclusion rate back to 50% before realizing those gains.
Garth, why did preferred shares take off today?
I know exactly what’s coming….no more stress test!
I understand why people don’t want it, but it’s doing exactly what it was intended to do. If they actually scrap it, my question would be to OSFI: why’d you listen?
They need to wear their big person pants and keep the stress test in play – I’m a millennial.
Didn’t OSFI recently demand that banks set aside a bigger cushion in case of market fluctuations? Isn’t OSFI supposed to be independent of interference at the federal government level? So if the feds do ‘adjust’, ‘gut’ or otherwise tamper with the stress test so much for that ‘arms’ length’ scenario.
I get that reading this blog gives me a different perspective of the dangers of purchasing RE in the hot regions, but even so I would like to think the masses have taken a second look at the debt load they would be shouldering & are reconsidering purchasing. The argument used by some that renting equals regular moves due to landlords turfing the tenant – either to sell or to rent out for higher amounts – is to me an excuse to justify financial suicide. Throw in the prospect of family expansion of any sort & you get crazed, competitive buyers, ripe for the picking. Emotions & hormones do not a reasoned financial decision make.
Don’t know if I agree. I’m pretty sure millennials didn’t vote for higher house prices.
“Affordability” means cheaper to me.
These “changes” will Amount to zero, like the last ones. House prices are too high. That is the problem.
Expect a nothing burger from Morneau.
Get rid of the capital gains exemption, raise the interest rate to where it should be, get rid of the cmhc and that will do the trick.
MF
JB on 01.09.20 at 3:57
Not entirely true. Lots of people like me really enjoy condo living. Prices are a joke and the “equity” gained is all fake yes, but there is demand.
MF
#12 kommykim
RE:#5 meslippery on 01.09.20 at 4:03 pm
Was thinking I should take Garths advice and sell some stocks soon before the budget.
========================================
Why sell if you don’t have to? If it does change, just wait until the next government changes the inclusion rate back to 50% before realizing those gains.
_______________
Yeah that could take too long I mean income tax was only temporary to fund the war.
Garth ex finance Minister is that how it works?
Very informative post. I guess people keep buying until it crashes. Japan crashed. Very dense city centers fared best. The stock market also crashed, and never fully recovered. And now 20 years of stagnation. Look no further? Real estate is a depreciating asset and earns nothing. Irony is low rates increases prices, and locks in debt. And the little people, people like me pay.
One thing that is going to slow condo tower sales , new and resale units, is rapidly expanding insurance costs.
It’s hit the west coast with figures in hundreds of percent’s increase.
Abbotsford example on 2 year old 26 story condo, insurance for total unit, jumped from 66k to almost 600K. Tenants faced with 3K levy and double condo fees to $600 a month. Numerous other examples. Whether this is a west coast rip off or not this trend is likely to hit the condo industry. Particularly towers as costs of claims has escalated as insurance based on total building not just your suite. The bigger they are the higher the risk. Not even thinking about years to come when all that glass starts leaking….
https://www.abbynews.com/news/abbotsford-high-rise-condo-owners-see-780-per-cent-insurance-hike/
Ok this is getting ridiculous now. Markets just keep going up up up. The algorithm is now driving markets not fundamentals. No point even having views or analysis anymore. This is a new era. Fake news. Fake money. Fake markets. Can’t beat em join em.
Good god, please tell me that sign is fake..
Government and finance leaders, at all levels, have abdicated any responsibility for returning sanity to the RE market. Far better, from their standpoint, to wait for an exogenous shock to jolt values back into line.
So we can safely say that there will be no “soft landing”, just a nasty head-snapping, screeching halt when recession and job losses kick in.
Politicians will always opt for trying to make current problems into future problems, to be tied to someone else’s can.
#9 kommykim on 01.09.20 at 4:27 pm
I really hate that hand heart gesture. Something about it creeps me out.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Finally! Something Kommykim and I agree on!
#9 kommykim on 01.09.20 at 4:27 pm
I really hate that hand heart gesture. Something about it creeps me out.
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Likewise. It’s stupidly childish. Like a pinkie promise.
#18 meslippery on 01.09.20 at 5:07 pm
#12 kommykim
RE:#5 meslippery on 01.09.20 at 4:03 pm
Was thinking I should take Garths advice and sell some stocks soon before the budget.
========================================
Why sell if you don’t have to? If it does change, just wait until the next government changes the inclusion rate back to 50% before realizing those gains.
_______________
Yeah that could take too long I mean income tax was only temporary to fund the war.
Garth ex finance Minister is that how it works?
========================================
Well, the inclusion rate has been higher in the past. The longest period was 1989-1999 when it went to 66.7% and then 75% before going back to 50% in 2000. It all depends on your investment timeline. If you are more than 10 years from retirement, I wouldn’t worry about it yet:
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-127-capital-gains/you-calculate-your-capital-gain-loss/inclusion-rates-previous-years.html
Be interesting to see what happens if they “goose” the mortgage rules and people still dont come to the party…..
What’s your market sense telling you? I’m getting: Bull Trap.
1999 dot.com boom = 2019 IPO boom (hot air)
2006 ninja loans = 2019/2020 repo market (how’s this not a problem?)
I’m on the defensive.
#7 Mattl on 01.09.20 at 4:20 pm
It will take a real strong leader to let RE values fall significantly. Too many Canadians have their net worth tied up in RE, and a crash or long slow melt would have serious implications.
No gov’t is going to let the boomers RE pot of gold melt away.
______________________________________
The government has nothing to do with which way the RE market swings. They create certain conditions – knowingly and unknowingly. But since when is it their job to make sure the RE market stays uber inflated just to ensure a bunch of dummies who overpaid for an asset, or who have all their money tied up in one stay out of financial trouble?
Is our government to give us tummy rubs when we feel sick too?
Garth,
If OSFI is independent of the federal government, how can the federal government “look at making changes” to the stress test that is implemented and controlled by OSFI?
Wouldn’t that be government interference?
I know OSFI reports to the Ministry of Finance but it is supposedly an independent agency. In theory, the government has zero control over OSFI and, by extension, the stress test. Are you indicating that, in practice, the government actually has full control or influence of OSFI?
I thought the OSFI which implemented the mortgage stress test was beyond the reach of the politicians, or am I being naive. LOL.
So I guess spring does not start now in the LML after all.
If buyers get more buying power, I bet sellers raise prices in 6 weeks before the buyers even have a chance to influence markets with more demand.
Think about it. I’m a seller and I know you sellers will have more leverage in six weeks time. So why not make you pay more for it right out of the gate.
@#3 JB on 01.09.20 at 3:57 pm
Condos have appreciated in value at twice the rate of detacheds, for example. Affordability has declined, not improved. (Units in 416 up 8% year/year.)
……………………………………………………………
Who in their right mind would purchase a Condo. These things are appreciating at an astonishing proportion due only to the desperation of these millennials inflowing to the market.
________________________________
don’t forget genx and boomers collecting 2 or 3 of them as investments. I have sympathy for the folks hoping for a crash so they can get into the market – not gonna happen.
New builds in York Region are no longer high demand. No SOLD OUT signs anymore. Houses now sitting built and unsold. People are definitely not as eager to invest in the poorly built, small lot monstrosities — or they might be but they don’t have the financing available? The sales people at the sales offices are actually having to work to make sales now because there are no more lineups on opening day.
#9 kommykim on 01.09.20 at 4:27 pm
I really hate that hand heart gesture. Something about it creeps me out.
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#23 Sail Away on 01.09.20 at 5:51 pm
Likewise. It’s stupidly childish. Like a pinkie promise.
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Funny. I just finished reading the berenstain bears strangers book to my littles when I opened today’s article and saw the pic:
“Kids, stay away from weirdos like this.”
What a mess!!! I have no more words; just a head shake!!
Oh, almost forgot.
That Trudeau/Morneau billboard makes me want to retch…and coming from me…..thats bad.
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
@#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
_________________________________________
oh man, that guy is the definition of RUTHLESS.
#38 Ray
Trump seems to have moved the goal posts to concentrate entirely on America casualties. So I think what he means is that the downing of that airliner inside Iran does not create cause for further US strikes against Iranian targets. Seems pretty callous given that there were so many Canadians and Europeans on board to me though. But I would rather not see anymore missiles flying around the middle east. This thing is getting out of hand and needs to be deescalated before it is too late, if it isn’t already.
I think the killing of Soleimani was a grave mistake. Sure by all accounts he was a cold-blooded murder but how many generals aren’t? War is what they do. Anyway we’ll see what happens but I don’t think this is the end of it. Sooner or later someone is going to kill an American and it will be blamed on Iran. Then what will Trump do?
Then there’s Trumps America!
https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/taco-bell-is-so-desperate-for-workers-its-offering-100000-salaries#comments-area
37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
Oh, almost forgot.
That Trudeau/Morneau billboard makes me want to retch…and coming from me…..thats bad.
…..
And “fart” as well? Lol..
#10 Ronaldo on 01.09.20 at 4:27 pm
This would be good for places like Red Deer where people are having problems getting a mortgage on houses priced at less than $300,000. Can’t imagine it doing much difference to places like Vancr and To where even at zero interest rates houses are not affordable for most. Maybe a time for speckers to be buying in places like Red Deer, Prince George where house prices are basically a downpayment for a house in the lower mainland. Here in Nanaimo where we are seeing houses selling quite well it may cause house prices to rise even more than the 12% or so that they have risen in the past year.
_ _ _
Does everybody in Red Deer work at Timmie Ho’s? Shouldn’t be that hard to get a mortgage for that amount with a middle class salary. If they don’t ahve it, they shouldn’t be buying.
As Siddall departs CMHC the greatest failing would be not having got the organization back into Housing, rather than just Mortgages. The Liberals need to correct their Chretien era errors in leaving the busienss of providing housing. The market isn’t the best provider.
What’s worst? Having to make that sign with your boss or the people seeing that sign and voting for the people in it?
Garth, if you did that pose with any party leader, I would vote for that party.
#39 oh bouy on 01.09.20 at 7:34 pm
@#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
_________________________________________
oh man, that guy is the definition of RUTHLESS.
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Ruthless for not starting a war over deaths of people from other countries? So what is it called when Canada doesn’t declare war on Iran for killing innocent Canadians?
#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
——————————————————————
I could not find anywhere where Trump stated what you have just posted. Spreading fake news are we? Link?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada has received intelligence indicating an Iranian missile shot down the Ukraine International Airlines flight full of Canadians that crashed near Tehran Wednesday, killing all 176 on board.“We have intelligence from multiple sources including our allies and our own intelligence: the evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile,” he told reporters in Ottawa .
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-politics/article-trump-suggests-iranian-missile-responsible-for-ukrainian-airline-crash/
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#87 Yukon Elvis on 01.08.20 at 11:25 am
Ukrainian air liner with Canadians aboard went down in Iran last night. I saw the vid. At the very end a “light” rises from the lower right of the screen and “connects” with the airliner.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ipFVMTXw9gI
Sure you have enough tin foil? Don’t disrespect the victims with this crap. – Garth
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Watch the video. What do you see?
Discussion over. – Garth
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Tinfoil Garth? Disrespect?
You may be right about the cause. I was correct about your disrespect of the victims. Show some empathy. This is not a video game. – Garth
I have worked as legal counsel for two “arm’s length” government established regulators in Alberta for a total of 10 years.
You’d have to be 5 years old to believe that they are independent from government. The responsible Ministry tells them what to do.
Daily and always.
OSFI independent? Fat chance. Wake up.
DELETED
You may be right about the cause. I was correct about your disrespect of the victims. Show some empathy. This is not a video game. – Garth
………………..
The disrespect was all yours. By refusing to acknowledge what really happened. With a supplied video link no less. The families deserve the truth. Where is your empathy by calling the truth crap and tinfoil?
I bought more CDN Financials in anticipation of ‘the gutting’. Bring it on. The countries economy is in the toilet, may as well see what’s happening in the sewer. We are no longer a first world nation after all, according to our PM McBlackface.
Will Carney be our next BOC Give after his unceremonious firing from BOE? Marc must be livid. He must have thought he was “that close” to bringing about a globalist dictatorship.
Here’s why Marc is not a good choice, but, neither was Justin. Quelle Domage. Uber Woke is the new crib for crazy. We might even have a Royal and Princess Pushy aka Yoko , as Governor General. Apparently the Queen’s Purse has snapped shut and the couple are seeking ‘financial independence’. The GG jobs have traditionally gone to loyal CBC bobbleheads, but hey, we’ re post national, anything could happen.
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-mark-carneys-war-against-the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-just-the-beginning
Spent the last few days cruising around Calgary and area. Lots of homes for sale for sure, and lots of deals. If I was a bit younger I’d be seriously thinking of moving. One bedroom condos start at a little over $100 k. Brand new under $200. No problem with housing here imo.
Motorcycle show here tomorrow. In Calgary you actually don’t need to stand in line to sit on a Harley, not that I’d want to sit on a Harley.
#25 Sail Away on 01.09.20 at 5:51 pm
#9 kommykim on 01.09.20 at 4:27 pm
I really hate that hand heart gesture. Something about it creeps me out.
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Likewise. It’s stupidly childish. Like a pinkie promise.
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Especially taking this attitude of hubris by these 2, Mr. stupid Socks and Mr. chateau ( oops forgot about that…) and Canadians have been blasted out of the Iranian sky by a Rocket.
Nothing done by the Coward Child! Nothing.
Oh sorry, it will balance itself.
Now, Imagine if Americans were on that shredded, burnt Aircraft. Different story?
#16 MF on 01.09.20 at 4:55 pm
Don’t know if I agree. I’m pretty sure millennials didn’t vote for higher house prices.
“Affordability” means cheaper to me.
These “changes” will Amount to zero, like the last ones. House prices are too high. That is the problem.
Get rid of the capital gains exemption, raise the interest rate to where it should be, get rid of the cmhc and that will do the trick.
MF
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Nicely put! Hiring has slowed down a bit, especially in those jobs that can support current house prices.
If they do remove the stress test, and people rush to take on debt at current valuations we will be one step closer to crowning the greater fool.
There is a poll circulating saying that 50+% of Canadians polled were starting to save for rainy days on the horizon and consumption has dipped as a result.
But it does make sense to based the stress test on local conditions especially on $300K Red Deer specials. But I take it some of the jobs have disappeared so how much demand will there be? No doubt mindsets have changed a bit in Red Deer in the last couple of years, my BIL and sister looked into buying in the height of the boom and things were 500K plus for the average two level house.
If I were Trudeau, I’d take this opportunity to show Canadians and the world of true leadership. How?
By calling a UN meeting and demanding compensation for the 63 Canadians killed by Iran. $1M per soul for the families should suffice.
I had no idea that thing “lil potato” & his pal were doing was a hand heart signal. I can’t wait to flash it on some of my pals. Their less hip than me. At the same time tell them I got a “man crush” on em.
Agree completely- that hand/heart gesture should be banned, never to be seen again.
Garth, I agree that a liquid portfolio and no attachment to a house gives you most freedom. However, owning your own place can give you a different kind of freedom. For example, not all rentals are pet friendly. If my rabbits chew the cables and the baseboards in my own house, I do not give a damn. Too bad real estate is so expensive in Canada, but life is all about choices.
Condos the wave of the future. Who could’ve seen the condo insurance raking over manhandling your condo pipe dreams to be able to own a something?
Waiting to hear your take on that.
And wonder how far it’ll spread? The rental market? The mom & pops rental owners?
Interesting..
OSFI is independent like the central bank is independent.
If you look south to what is happening between Trump and the Fed, you’ll understand what I mean
And if OSFI doesn’t want to play along, they can always be SNC Lavalined. There is no consequence for that. Just ask JWR
https://stevesaretsky.com/vancouver-housing-starts-hit-record-high-in-2019/ Here comes the supply.
Let’s assume if all of the victims of the air crash were Arabs, no one here would give a pleep.
But as it happens, 63 were Canadians, probably all of them Arabs with Canadian/Aranian passports.
#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.10.20 at 3:00 am
Let’s assume if all of the victims of the air crash were Arabs, no one here would give a pleep.
But as it happens, 63 were Canadians, probably all of them Arabs with Canadian/Aranian passports.
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Iranians aren’t Arabs.
re: #87 Yukon Elvis on 01.08.20 at 11:25 am
Ukrainian air liner with Canadians aboard went down in Iran last night. I saw the vid. At the very end a “light” rises from the lower right of the screen and “connects” with the airliner.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ipFVMTXw9gI
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Am i missing something … like, cause and effect? I would think a missile would have to hit the plane before it plummets to the earth in a fireball, not the other way around. Plus, the light in the lower right is likely a vehicle. RIP.
#57 Dragonslayer on 01.09.20 at 11:56 pm
Agree completely- that hand/heart gesture should be banned, never to be seen again.
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Just get a few supposedly racists to make that hand/heart gesture on social media and the SJWs will be out in force having it banned like the ‘OK’ hand gesture.
@#61 DON
“Here comes the supply.”
+++++
Its going to be interesting.
I talked to another tradesman on Monday.
He’s a Finish carpenter. Does real nice work.
Kitchens, Bathrooms,etc.
Slowest December in years.
I’m thinking this “faux rally” in the Spring real estate sales could be a dud.
“Easy credit! Low interest rates! Come on dowwwwn!”
Its just what we’ll need before Justin and company head into another snap election.
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Yes, finally we have a strong leader ahead of next election:
Peter MacKay ‘100 per cent in’ for the Conservative leadership race, friends say
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/peter-mackay-is-a-100-per-cent-in-for-the-conservative-leadership-race-say-friends?utm_source=distroscale&utm_medium=native_ads&utm_campaign=on_network_boosting&utm_content=trending_broadsheet
Maybe we should call that hand gesture the virtue signal?
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#55 n1tro
That’s why you are not Trudeau. He knows about flight 655. You do not.
#59 Moses71 on 01.10.20 at 12:14 am
Condos the wave of the future. Who could’ve seen the condo insurance raking over manhandling your condo pipe dreams to be able to own a something?
Waiting to hear your take on that.
And wonder how far it’ll spread? The rental market? The mom & pops rental owners?
Interesting..
………………………………………………
That is the key the Condo owners and potential buyers need to know. The fees are uncontrolled and totally out of your hands. So if you are on a fixed income your doomed and the insurance industry is out to make money with condos being the sacrificial lamb led to the slaughter. Who can afford these exorbitant rates and the insane deductibles. The insurance companies know that damage to one Condo effects many around and underneath the ground zero location. Yes it will affect the renters too.
@#72 leebow
“….He knows about flight 655….”
++++
I think we’re talking about flight 752….. what are you talking about……?
Quick monthly reminder that preferreds are still taking off. Golden Cross imminent on ZPR
#73 crowdedelevatorfartz
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
US shot down an Iranian airplane with 290 people on board. Total comp was $62 mln in 1996. So roughly $200K per person.
Another case is Siberia 1812 shot by Ukraine over the Black sea. Also $200K per person comp.
#73 crowdedelevatorfartz
And it’s not about the comp even. Most importantly – it does happen, even in less chaotic circumstances.
#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.20 at 8:50 am
@#61 DON
“Here comes the supply.”
+++++
Its going to be interesting.
I talked to another tradesman on Monday.
He’s a Finish carpenter. Does real nice work.
Kitchens, Bathrooms,etc.
Slowest December in years.
I’m thinking this “faux rally” in the Spring real estate sales could be a dud.
“Easy credit! Low interest rates! Come on dowwwwn!”
Its just what we’ll need before Justin and company head into another snap election.
*********************
Here’s another article I came across on the Tyee.
Jen St. Denis 8 Jan 2020 | TheTyee.ca
Jen St. Denis is a Vancouver-based journalist who has covered housing, economics, business and politics. Her work has appeared in Star Vancouver, the Toronto Star, Vancouver Sun, Business in Vancouver and Vancouver Courier.
https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/01/08/House-Price-Drop-Boo-Cheer/
Jen provides both sides of the story. It’s really about managing expectations of paper gains. A couple of wait…what? moments when you read it.
40 Nonplused on 01.09.20 at 8:00
Actually Iran’s end game is 2 fold:
-Keep pushing for regional hegemony by supporting terrorist “proxies” that have zero purpose other than fomenting violence all over the Middle East….then running to the UN claiming to be the victim.
-Acquire nuclear weapons.
When the second of those two is realized what will we the human race do? Trump ain’t the problem.
MF
#72 leebow
What’s there to know? Flight 655, innocents got killed. They guilty party paid out.
Trudeau went on the news saying “evidence” suggest a surface to air missile shot down the plane. So unless the US was in the area, shot a missile from a carrier for no apparent reason, have it travel across Iran to hit the plane as it just lifted off…what do people like to refer to again?….oh yeah….Occam’s razor’s says it is Iran that did it.
Our leader should step up and say that the party responsible should pay up.
#74 Xpat on 01.10.20 at 10:02 am
Quick monthly reminder that preferreds are still taking off. Golden Cross imminent on
—————————
Yep. I bought in a fairly big way in June and up on all since then. Best performer? BAM.PR.S appreciated 12% and yields 7%, so 15% plus in 6 months. Also CPD, Altagas, Transalta, Bombardier, some others ..
Fantastic fixed income beating many equities.
Although I think technical analysis is no different than fortune telling. Golden cross my eye.
#55 n1tro on 01.09.20 at 11:08 pm
If I were Trudeau, I’d take this opportunity to show Canadians and the world of true leadership. How?
By calling a UN meeting and demanding compensation for the 63 Canadians killed by Iran. $1M per soul for the families should suffice.
—
Even Trudeau knows that it would be a stupid idea with his track record of paying $10.5M from your taxes for someone who wasn’t killed, although he pleaded guilty and his victim didn’t survive.
#48 WUL on 01.09.20 at 9:50 pm
I have worked as legal counsel for two “arm’s length” government established regulators in Alberta for a total of 10 years.
You’d have to be 5 years old to believe that they are independent from government. The responsible Ministry tells them what to do.
Daily and always.
OSFI independent? Fat chance. Wake up.
—————————————————————
About as independent as The Fed and the Potus I would think.
#64 jack
Am i missing something … like, cause and effect? I would think a missile would have to hit the plane before it plummets to the earth in a fireball, not the other way around. Plus, the light in the lower right is likely a vehicle. RIP.
…………………………………………..
Reports say that the plane was hit by two surface to air missiles. On the lower right hand corner of the screen a streak of light is shown rising from the ground and merging with the plane, followed by a big flash.
Grainy anon cell phone video on the Internet. Maybe you should wait for something less sketchy before you go all-in on missiles. By the way, have you expressed condolences for the families yet? – Garth
Heart gesture? HA! This is the new Liberal we’ll-leave-you-with-nothing sign!!!
Mornowe needs ta grow face fur too!
Lumberjack shirt next up.
#79 n1tro
You misunderstand Occam’s razor.
There is a due process to follow. Fingers can be pointed in many directions.
#81 Ubul on 01.10.20 at 11:07 am
#55 n1tro on 01.09.20 at 11:08 pm
—
Even Trudeau knows that it would be a stupid idea with his track record of paying $10.5M from your taxes for someone who wasn’t killed, although he pleaded guilty and his victim didn’t survive.
—————-
That settlement was not for Omar killing an american but for violations of his Charter of Rights as a “Canadian” because Harper didn’t step up and bring the idiot back and throw him in prison where he belongs.
#85 joblo on 01.10.20 at 11:14 am
Mornowe needs ta grow face fur too!
Lumberjack shirt next up.
—
Funny you sad that, I was thinking what’s next, Dunnville dinner jacket?
This so called affordability crisis is only in Toronto and Vancouver. You should not make national policy because of two cities but that is where the votes are.
Time for Alberta to leave this lopsided country and become independent. Canada is not a democracy for people who live outside of Toronto and Vancouver.
The plane tragedy
What a tragedy.
Several things about it were an eye-opener to my apparently sheltered life.
I was surprised that a flight from Iran to Ukraine had 63 Canadians. In fact I understand 138 were connecting to Toronto. Even considering if was just after Christmas that is a LOT of traffic between Canada and Iran. Canada’s population is more global than is apparent to me in my day to day life. Is that a regular route that flies weekly or what?
I was struck by the education levels of the Canadians lost. All people have great human value. These people had great economic value as well to Canada. This country benefits from having allowed those people and or their parents to come to Canada and become citizens.
Edmonton in particular and the University of Alberta lost a lot of great people. I am struck by their stories. I respect those lost and their families. What a tragedy.
Why has it become standard that our politicians grin all the time? There’s no gravitas. Lose the grin and maybe, sometimes, pretend something is serious.
That billboard looks like a Tinder profile. Grinder if they take their shirts off.
Grainy anon cell phone video on the Internet. Maybe you should wait for something less sketchy before you go all-in on missiles. By the way, have you expressed condolences for the families yet? – Garth
………………………….
It could have been a pigeon carrying a flashlight for all I know, but it could be a missile too. People deserve to know if it is unsafe to fly in or around Iran. If I knew who the families were I would certainly send my condolences. Have you sent yours ?
Actually, yes. And I’m not insulting the families by parsing the demise of their loved ones. – Garth
#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
——————————————–
I apologize for this comment. It was sarcastic anger. It advanced noting. It was disrespectful to this blog and to the Canadians lost .
#89 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 01.10.20 at 11:38 am
This so called affordability crisis is only in Toronto and Vancouver. You should not make national policy because of two cities but that is where the votes are.
***************
If by Vancouver you mean the Lower Mainland and parts of the interior and Vancouver Island from Campbell River down to Victoria…yup you are right. Cause even local wages in the smaller towns are out of whack with house prices and the good paying jobs are scarce. At least the ones that can afford a house.
One town is trying to attract younger people with talk of building affordable housing as they realize their tax base (retirement) is diminishing daily, they built up the area to welcome retirees but are now starting to wonder who will replace these retirees.
Will be interesting as the young people have been pushed out into the fringes in order to afford both rent and mortgages.
#91 Sail away on 01.10.20 at 11:48 am
Why has it become standard that our politicians grin all the time? There’s no gravitas. Lose the grin and maybe, sometimes, pretend something is serious.
That billboard looks like a Tinder profile. Grinder if they take their shirts off.
************
LMFAO…I had the same thought.
#87 n1tro on 01.10.20 at 11:31 am
#81 Ubul on 01.10.20 at 11:07 am
#55 n1tro on 01.09.20 at 11:08 pm
—
Even Trudeau knows that it would be a stupid idea with his track record of paying $10.5M from your taxes for someone who wasn’t killed, although he pleaded guilty and his victim didn’t survive.
—————-
That settlement was not for Omar killing an american but for violations of his Charter of Rights as a “Canadian” because Harper didn’t step up and bring the idiot back and throw him in prison where he belongs.
—
Obviously Trudeau should have left the proper legal verdict to decide and explain how the Charter of Rights should be applied to the Omar case and discuss settlement – if any – as a follow-up step.
We have yet to see how Trudeau steps up for these Canadian victims against a different regime, how his government thinks the protection of the Charter might or might not apply to their situation, depending the findings why and how they were killed, and what would be the proper compensation to demand.
Trudeau can’t speak the same way for the victims of other countries – as you suggest -, that’s the duty of their own government. It would be disgraceful to try to use this horrible event for anything that can be seen as personal political gain.
This optic is why so many Canadian resents his personal interference with Omar’s court case.
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#91 Sail away on 01.10.20 at 11:48 am
Why has it become standard that our politicians grin all the time? There’s no gravitas. Lose the grin and maybe, sometimes, pretend something is serious.
That billboard looks like a Tinder profile. Grinder if they take their shirts off.
—
Handlers, focus groups, polls. Doesn’t matter what’s the product on the billboard.
This one is supposed to look like tinder\grinder. Check how the liberal red shifted to pink hue. It’s not photoshop error. Two economic 1%-ers masquerading as angels, with political left wings. Not much different from playing indians with feathers. Pedestrian cambridge analytics without the stealth sophistication.
n1tro # 55,
“If I were Trudeau, I’d take this opportunity to show Canadians and the world of true leadership. How?”
————————————
By calling a UN meeting to declare, Canada is removing ALL military personnel from the middle east and calling on ALL other western sovereigns to do the same.
Forget this stupid climate shit…
I declare, A GLOBAL WAR EMERGENCY!
Enough is enough….
#92 Yukon Elvis on 01.10.20 at 12:08 pm
Grainy anon cell phone video on the Internet. Maybe you should wait for something less sketchy before you go all-in on missiles. By the way, have you expressed condolences for the families yet? – Garth
………………………….
It could have been a pigeon carrying a flashlight for all I know, but it could be a missile too. People deserve to know if it is unsafe to fly in or around Iran. If I knew who the families were I would certainly send my condolences. Have you sent yours ?
Actually, yes. And I’m not insulting the families by parsing the demise of their loved ones. – Garth
…………………………….
“Parsing the demise of their loved ones”….Like the Prime Minister of Canada just did in a news conference?
Your role model? – Garth
#93 Ray on 01.10.20 at 12:09 pm
#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
——————————————–
I apologize for this comment. It was sarcastic anger. It advanced noting. It was disrespectful to this blog and to the Canadians lost .
——————————-
And particularly to Trump.
Or do you think poor behavior and lying is acceptable if you don’t like someone?
This may explain the flash and why it looked like detonation before impact:
Surface to air missiles with proximity fuses generally detonate when they come within a certain distance of their target. Also, powerful explosions (the likes of which are caused by missiles) are followed by shockwaves destroying the target.
But we don’t know for sure at this time.
How horrific for these unfortunate people regardless of what was written on their passports and the crew of course. Almost impossible to console an affected family over something so senseless.
Well, Simpson rue, Golden square mile in Montreal (dream location), one bedroom condo still close to two hundred grands, so where is that Montreal hot market?
@#45 n1tro on 01.09.20 at 9:00 pm
#39 oh bouy on 01.09.20 at 7:34 pm
@#38 Ray on 01.09.20 at 7:10 pm
So the evidence suggests the Iranian airliner was shot down by a ground to air missile. Trump says no big deal , no Americans died, just non Americans. Big Nothing Burger. We’ll take Iran’ s word for the Black Box analysis.
_________________________________________
oh man, that guy is the definition of RUTHLESS.
————–
Ruthless for not starting a war over deaths of people from other countries? So what is it called when Canada doesn’t declare war on Iran for killing innocent Canadians?
______________________________
grow up son
Ubul, I missed the pink hue instead of the red. Consciously that is. Good one.
#101
“And particularly to Trump.
Or do you think poor behavior and lying is acceptable if you don’t like someone?”
Please tell me this comment was meant as irony. Or perhaps your head is so far up Trump’s “Barr” that you can’t see the irony in this remark?
Hell, I am pretty sure current POTUS has made poor behaviour and lying acceptable even if you do like someone.
#100 Yukon Elvis on 01.10.20 at 1:23 pm
#92 Yukon Elvis on 01.10.20 at 12:08 pm
Grainy anon cell phone video on the Internet. Maybe you should wait for something less sketchy before you go all-in on missiles. By the way, have you expressed condolences for the families yet? – Garth
………………………….
It could have been a pigeon carrying a flashlight for all I know, but it could be a missile too. People deserve to know if it is unsafe to fly in or around Iran. If I knew who the families were I would certainly send my condolences. Have you sent yours ?
Actually, yes. And I’m not insulting the families by parsing the demise of their loved ones. – Garth
…………………………….
“Parsing the demise of their loved ones”….Like the Prime Minister of Canada just did in a news conference?
Your role model? – Garth
…………………………….
I thought maybe you were his role model. All that virtue signalling and emotional grandstanding and stuff.
#106 Flail Away on 01.10.20 at 2:38 pm
#101
“And particularly to Trump.
Or do you think poor behavior and lying is acceptable if you don’t like someone?”
Please tell me this comment was meant as irony. Or perhaps your head is so far up Trump’s “Barr” that you can’t see the irony in this remark?
Hell, I am pretty sure current POTUS has made poor behaviour and lying acceptable even if you do like someone.
………………………………….
With all of this yattering regarding Trump AKA (Whack a doddle) and his persistent lies over 15413 as of Dec 19th 2019 and still counting you can’t accept his behavior if you have conscience and are a human! Its sad that it is becoming acceptable for a president to be a lying intimidating bully. Great roll model Donny!
BTW, where the hell is Trumps number one tin foil supporter AKA (Smokingman) to defend his Whack a doddle boss? All I hear is crickets from SoCal lately.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/
#108 JB on 01.10.20 at 3:07 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/16/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/
———–
Curious if the Washington Post or any other publication keeps a record of all the false or misleading claims they have made since Trump has come into office?
More interesting would be the amount of false or misleading claims relative to the amount of times spoken. ie. out of 10 public statements made by President Trump, 7 have been found to be false or misleading. 70% liar.
Applying that same bar of scrutiny to say a news outlet that perpetuates the false or misleading narrative of Russian collusion of someone for about 3 years repeatedly 7 days a week, what is the % of lying I wonder?
B.C. set for coldest temperatures this century. Will Greta come here to stop the coming ice age?
I thought global warming changed overall weather patterns resulting in abnormal fluctuations. Wrong? – Garth
#106 Flail Away on 01.10.20 at 2:38 pm
#101
“And particularly to Trump.
Or do you think poor behavior and lying is acceptable if you don’t like someone?”
————————————-
Please tell me this comment was meant as irony. Or perhaps your head is so far up Trump’s “Barr” that you can’t see the irony in this remark?
Hell, I am pretty sure current POTUS has made poor behaviour and lying acceptable even if you do like someone.
————————————-
What’s ironic? We can only control our own actions.
Invoking Trump’s name is not a free pass to spew heinous and libelous garbage.
When we choose to act poorly, it’s our own choice and our own action. Period.