Outlook

RYAN By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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Prior to joining Turner Investments I was an Investment Strategist for our firm (Raymond James) and a major Canadian bank. An “Investment Strategist” is an economist and financial analyst in one. Unlike a stock analyst, who focuses on a particular industry or sector, an Investment Strategist instead looks at the big picture and forecasts things like the economy, interest rates, the equity markets and which sectors will out/underperform. For financial geeks like myself, an Investment Strategist is the dream job as it looks at the whole system rather than the individual parts and the learning is endless.

So this week I put on my Investment Strategist hat and present my major calls for 2020. Let’s hope I have as much success as 2019.

First, it all comes down to the economy, which I see stabilizing this year, and likely picking up in the second half. Critical to this is Phase One of the US/China trade deal, which Trump said would be signed by mid-January. While the deal could provide a small boost to exports and GDP, the larger benefit of this deal would be removing a lot of uncertainty that has weighed on businesses and the economy in 2019. In particular, I see manufacturing and capital investment rebounding this year as a result of the trade deal, which should provide a boost to the US/global economy.

While growth in the labour market should slow in North America (unemployment rates are already at historic lows), I see the labour markets remaining strong this year, which should continue to support robust consumer spending.

Overall I see the US/global economy doing better in 2020 and see low odds of a recession. In trying to assess the odds of a recession we use the indicators in the table below and currently the majority of our key indicators point to low odds of a recession in 2020 (only manufacturing is worrisome but this should rebound on the US/China trade deal).

Turner Investments Recession Monitor List

Source: Turner Investments
Recessionary; Expansionary; = Neutral

Moving to the fundamentals, I see corporate earnings growth improving, which should propel stocks higher again this year. After a strong year of earnings growth in 2018, aided by the cut to US corporate tax rates, earnings growth slowed to a crawl in 2019, due to the slowdown in the US/global economy and the trade uncertainty. With my expectations for stronger economic growth and the improving trade front, I see a reacceleration of earnings in 2020.

Currently analysts expect S&P 500 and TSX earnings to surge 17% and 15%, respectively, in 2020. Stock analysts are notoriously overly optimistic (they buy rose coloured glasses in bulk), so based on my models I see earnings growth coming in at half the consensus estimates (i.e., 7-8% Y/Y). This projected earnings growth will be critical to the equity markets this year given elevated stock valuations.

With the huge gains in 2019, stock valuations (e.g., P/Es) have expanded significantly, with the S&P 500 P/E increasing from 15x in early 2019 to 20x currently, for example.
Some worry the elevated valuations for stocks will result in a disappointing year for stock returns. But with inflation low, dovish central banks, and low odds of a recession, I think this concern is overstated.

That doesn’t mean we won’t see bouts of volatility and sell-offs occurring this year. In fact, I see the potential for higher volatility this year, relative to 2019, due to where we are in the business cycle. But when all is said and done I see further gains this year, with much of it depending on the outlook for corporate profits.

Lastly, from a regional perspective I’m most bullish on the Canadian, US and emerging markets in 2020.

S&P 500 Earnings Are Expected to Rebound in 2020

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

The final thing I consider in developing our outlook is the technicals for the major equity markets.

Below is the long-term chart of the S&P 500 and she’s a beaut! Frankly, I don’t understand how anyone who looks at the charts could be bearish. This is a textbook bullish trend.

From the chart there are three key bullish observations. First, the S&P 500 remains in a well-defined uptrend (most important). Second, the S&P 500 is above its rising 200-day moving average. Third, note the clear long-term pattern of consolidations (2011, 2015, and 2018), followed by breakouts. The cardinal rule of technical analysis is “to invest with the trend”, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Everything else is just noise.

S&P 500 Technicals Remain Very Bullish

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

When developing my outlook for the year ahead I spend a lot of time thinking about where I could be wrong and reading research that is at odds with my personal views. Confirmation bias is a strong behavioural bias where people seek out information that aligns and supports their existing views and beliefs. I try to counter this bias by actively seeking out information and views that run contrary to my thinking.

In that vein I see the following factors that could prove my positive outlook wrong: 1) the US/China trade deal is signed but not adhered to and therefore trade tensions escalate; 2) geopolitical events like the Hong Kong protests or the US/Iran situation deteriorates further; 3) 2020 will mark the 11th year of this expansion and I underestimate how close we are to the end of this business cycle; and 4) a surprise US election outcome like a Warren or Sanders win (while unlikely that would probably be the death knell of this bull market).

Overall, I see more positives than negatives for 2020 and therefore see more gains in store for this year. But investors need to be prepared for more volatility and expect more muted gains compared to the awesome 2019.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

76 comments ↓

#1 Haus Edlinger on 01.04.20 at 12:52 pm

On point. Unless there is a black swan event.
I hope Europe can ride North America’s coat tail

#2 Tim on 01.04.20 at 12:57 pm

Good read , hopefully a repeat of your 2019 predictions and not the 2018 ones,let’s forget those haha

Good luck !

#3 Sail Away on 01.04.20 at 1:21 pm

#1 Haus Edlinger on 01.04.20 at 12:52 pm

Unless there is a black swan event

——————————–

Uh… yeah. You could append that statement to literally every comment ever made in the history of ever.

#4 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 01.04.20 at 2:00 pm

So if a moderate Democrat like Biden or Bloomberg were to win would that be about the same as a Trump win for the market?

#5 Another Deckchair on 01.04.20 at 2:05 pm

One interesting longer-term trend, especially for us North American types is the move away from cars when our city centres get densified. (diesel,gas,electric, doesn’t matter)

Google it, but here’s one from Barcelona; “Cars would be virtually eliminated from within the superblocks, “liberating” 70 percent of the city’s land for public use, ”

https://urbanland.uli.org/planning-design/barcelonas-experiment-superblocks/

Europe is leading the charge here; I don’t think we’ll be too far behind, what with the Toronto King Street E. success…

Also, electric cars are not a panacea for many, many reasons. Note that two states are now finding out that electric cars are riding transportation fuels coat-tails without paying, but no longer:

https://tech.slashdot.org/story/20/01/03/2349252/to-replace-gas-taxes-oregon-and-utah-ask-evs-to-pay-for-road-use

This is all going to be interesting to see play out; lots of potential issues and gains here.

#6 Scott on 01.04.20 at 2:08 pm

Thanks for all the great detail as always Ryan! Nailing the macro. Just for fun is there any sector or sectors you would throw out there that you’re bullish or bearish on?

#7 leebow on 01.04.20 at 2:59 pm

#1 Haus Edlinger
#3 Sail Away

Here is the latest classification of swans.
Black – don’t know what, don’t know when
Gray – know what, don’t know when
Orange – don’t know what, know when (every day)

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.20 at 3:11 pm

@#101 heloguy
“Caught my high school math teacher….”

++++

Did you put 2 and 2 together and get an “A” in Math that year?

#9 Jeff Sharon on 01.04.20 at 3:55 pm

Macro economics is a tough one to base a call on. There’s just too many variables created by us humans. The Health Care sector seems like a no brainer based on the macro numbers but then Trudeau came along and the sector was set back a decade due to Trudeaus pot stocks being such a losing proposition. Stock trading beats Blue Sky investing every time.

Speaking of dangerous, has anyone seen our PM? Trudeaus been AWOL from Canada for a month. Is he suffering from buyers remorse now that a vast majority of Canadians have been saying bad things about him on FB? Who voted for this guy?

Speaking of FB, Trudeaus been captured in some unflattering pics , looking like a besotted wino. Is this a joke? What’s in store for Canada when more of these pics of Trudeau looking demented come out? The Trudeau Macro looks like a Black Swan tied to Scud Missile, coming straight at the Canadian economy.

Will the Trudeau Team say nothing positive about the righteous assassination of a mass murderer general? Where do we stand in the world and who is going to invest in this pathetic little country? Now there’s a macro-analysis you can bank on.

#10 Kevin on 01.04.20 at 3:58 pm

Thanks Ryan for this writeup. In light of the situation in the Middle East, can you comment on how terrorist acts or war impact the markets? I’m very worried about a US/Iran war.

#11 Ryan Lewenza on 01.04.20 at 4:13 pm

PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary “So if a moderate Democrat like Biden or Bloomberg were to win would that be about the same as a Trump win for the market?”

I think the markets would do fine under a Biden/Bloomberg win but not as well as under Trump, especially if Trump reduces trade tensions. Interestingly, the US markets have done better under a Democrat President, but Trump’s pro-growth approach is very supportive to the equity markets. – Ryan L

#12 Eddie on 01.04.20 at 4:19 pm

The S&P/TSX is trading at just 14 per cent above the high in May 2008. Investing in GIC was better investment

#13 Ryan Lewenza on 01.04.20 at 4:21 pm

Scott “Thanks for all the great detail as always Ryan! Nailing the macro. Just for fun is there any sector or sectors you would throw out there that you’re bullish or bearish on?”

We’re bullish on the US healthcare sector, REITs and I see a lot of value in Canadian energy stocks. We’ve been underweight the energy sector but it’s on our watchlist. Just waiting for the technicals and the green light on TransMountain before buying. – Ryan L

#14 crazyfox on 01.04.20 at 4:30 pm

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Wouldn’t the Shiller PE ratio be more reliable, Since the P/E is averaged over 10 years instead of 1? Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild swings in any one year. What I like about Shiller is the chart goes back to the beginning of the S/P for historical purposes. That being said, this chart indicates historically high (and low) valuations to contrast where we are now.

It’s not to say that the market can’t go higher, consistent good news and earnings will make it so and it is an election year, but there is always a chance for surprise chief among them being geopolitical risk. So, while I share your market view Ryan, I remain less comfortable than a year ago simply for one reason more than any other, that valuations are high at least historically.

#15 espressobob on 01.04.20 at 4:34 pm

A big sell off in the equity markets are a dream for contrarians.

Funny how some don’t see opportunity?

#16 Tyberius on 01.04.20 at 4:43 pm

“The cardinal rule of technical analysis is “to invest with the trend”, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Everything else is just noise.”

– – –

Yes, the “trend is your friend”…until it isn’t, I guess.

#17 Shawn Allen on 01.04.20 at 4:50 pm

TSX not up much since 2008?

#12 Eddie on 01.04.20 at 4:19 pm

The S&P/TSX is trading at just 14 per cent above the high in May 2008. Investing in GIC was better investment

*************************************
Sure but most people invest at least annually and not all at once in May 2008.

How does the comparison look with annual investments each year since 2008?

Also would you go all GIC today?

Factor in dividends – that adds 2-3% per year. – Garth

#18 Grunt on 01.04.20 at 5:16 pm

The outlook seems to swirl on Trump and the US. Not much substance on outside internals like China or the EU. Or the home front.

On another 20s footing the mainstream parties need to adopt more environmental policies to dilute the Greens chlorophyll.

#19 Forecasts on 01.04.20 at 5:50 pm

Thanks for the forecast
Hopefully you will update this every quarter as things progress in the economy and geopolitical situation,
For me a year is a very long time, quarterly updates going out another year is more helpful as things can change very quickly.
Personally I think 2020 will be similar to 2019 but going forward is the world debt addiction we are digging a deeper hole every month and every year. But that’s old news and no one care anymore, which personally for me means trouble when no one is talking about it.
Cheers and thanks

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.20 at 6:01 pm

Another interesting analysis Ryan.

Be interesting to see if the Iran “situation” boils over.
Not like Trump OR the Iranian leadership to use it to get their countrymen’s minds off the current unpopularity of the leaders of both country’s
Wag the Dog

#21 Kelowna on 01.04.20 at 6:24 pm

Excellent article – very informative, objective and well thought through!
Time will tell of course but it always helps when the crystal ball is based on some facts!
Thanks for sharing your perspective!

#22 gfd on 01.04.20 at 6:24 pm

B.C. Assessment has pegged the value of this previously million-dollar-plus home and property at $2. The home is in the Seawatch neighborhood of Sechelt, which was evacuated due to sinkholes. (B.C. Assessment)

Million-dollar oceanview homes in a sinkhole-plagued area of Sechelt on the Sunshine Coast are now worth a toonie while nearby undeveloped plots that previously sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars are now valued at a mere loonie, according to B.C Assessment.

The figures released Thursday are yet another blow to the already heartbroken residents of the Seawatch neighborhood on the Sunshine Coast who were forced from their homes over 10 months ago when the district declared a local state of emergency because of unstable ground.

#23 Izzie on 01.04.20 at 6:43 pm

Hi Ryan. Thanks for the overview. What are your thoughts about China’s debt? I have read some interesting articles on how much they have goosed markets with credit. Looks like there might not be much room left for them to continue to run.

#24 Ryan Lewenza on 01.04.20 at 7:09 pm

Izzie “Hi Ryan. Thanks for the overview. What are your thoughts about China’s debt? I have read some interesting articles on how much they have goosed markets with credit. Looks like there might not be much room left for them to continue to run.”

Yes I’m very concerned about the huge increase and reliance of credit to fund their growth. See my blog post on the topic. – Ryan L

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/04/28/chinas-debt-problem/

#25 Timmy on 01.04.20 at 7:14 pm

What percentages would you allocate between CDN, US and Intl?

#26 acdel on 01.04.20 at 7:20 pm

As you mentioned Ryan; if Trump wins then we are ok; depending what the heck happens in the middle east; if not; batten down the hatches.

#27 Nonplused on 01.04.20 at 7:21 pm

“In that vein I see the following factors that could prove my positive outlook wrong: 1) the US/China trade deal is signed but not adhered to and therefore trade tensions escalate; 2) geopolitical events like the Hong Kong protests or the US/Iran situation deteriorates further; 3) 2020 will mark the 11th year of this expansion and I underestimate how close we are to the end of this business cycle; and 4) a surprise US election outcome like a Warren or Sanders win (while unlikely that would probably be the death knell of this bull market).”

———————–

China will almost certainly not adhere to any and all trade deals except as it suites them. In fact I don’t see how they could. Sure, they could start importing more food, but I don’t see how they can encourage their citizenry to suddenly start buying US made durable goods. They already make most everything themselves for less and don’t have to ship it across they ocean. Are the Chinese suddenly going to start importing Ford F-150’s? They make smaller trucks more suitable to the purpose they have already.

But that is probably fine with the US political elite, the main goal of the tariffs is move manufacturing back to the US, not to increase sales to China. I mean why, for example, did K2 move production of skis to China? They don’t sell them for any less than a ski made in Europe. I’ve got skis from all over the world and they all cost $800 a pair, even from China. There doesn’t really seem to be a manufacturing advantage anymore unless it’s showing up in corporate profits. Corporate profits are great, but even the elite realize you can only disenfranchise the working class so far before you end up with the French revolution. “Let them eat cake!” “Well how about I chop off your head?”

The rich have always had far more than the poor, and the poor have always tolerated it so long as they got “what you need”. “You can’t always get what you want”-Mic J. But if you can’t get what you need, SHTF.

———————

Geopolitical conflicts will continue to mount but I doubt it will have much affect unless a serious war breaks out. The Hong Kong thing has been coming for years. China will have its way eventually but they don’t really have to take military action, they can just wait things out. The US and Iran have been in a proxy war for 40 years so that is nothing new, and nobody could have been surprised that Soleimani had a target on his back. When you live dangerously you die dangerously and he lived very, very dangerously. So I predict there will be retaliations by proxies but they will die down once the point has been made. Iran probably doesn’t want Trump to hit his “52 targets”, a few of which will undoubtedly be the major oil processing facilities inside of Iran itself, using standoff weapons far more powerful than the drones that hit Saudi Arabia.

It must be understood that war is a racket and it has been the lifeblood of the American moneyed class since WWI. They do not fear it. They fear not having it. So the Iranians have to be very careful how they respond here. They are in much greater peril than North Korea, which could be taken out in minutes by a single US aircraft carrier (although with much damage and loss of life in South Korea), so they aren’t a very good target for the US war machine. Iran, on the other had, could represent trillions of war bucks flowing to arms manufacturers and not to mention the army personnel themselves, including the many many people who join the military because they don’t have other job prospects. And also the senators who get campaign financing from the war machine builders and whose employees also vote.

Heck a few successful strikes by F-35’s might even get sales of those back on track. “Sure we are still working out the bugs, but look how they took out the Iranian air defenses! Think what they will be able to do once we fix them!”

So the problem for Iran is that North Korea is too small of a target for the US war machine, Russia is too big, but Iran is just right. It would be an air war, not dissimilar to Serbia or Gulf War 1 or Libya. It is unlikely there will be a ground war. Sure, a number of American soldiers will die, but the economics of war indicate that a soldier is only worth what it costs to train a new one. That is really not much compared to selling a bunch of F-35’s.

The main staple of Iran’s air force is a bunch of F-14’s that the US sold them 40 years ago and doesn’t even use anymore. The Russians built replacement parts due to sanctions. Does anybody really think when the US F-22’s and F-18 Super Hornets come in that Iran will still have an air force? They won’t.

——————

Calling the end of the cycle is hard. Sure, you’ll eventually be right, in the same sort of way that economists predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

——————

Warren or Sanders will not be the democratic candidate unless it is in the moneyed interest to give Trump 4 more years. Their economic proposals are gibberish, they don’t pole well, and neither can present credentials to the people they wish to attract. Sanders loses every time so we don’t have to worry about him. He can’t even clear the DNC. Plus he will not live for 8 more years so they have to vote for the vice-president, who has not yet been identified. Trump would eat Warren in debates once they spin it that she has “appropriated” native culture and probably bumped a true native out of contention for her various roles by pretending to be one. Trump is not going to let this one go or give her a pass. She’ll look like a foolish lair in every debate. And no, natives will not vote for her. They won’t vote for Trump either. It’ll just be a sad day on the reserve. But every election is a sad day on the reserve because there aren’t enough of them to get their concerns heard through the ballet box. That happens in Canada too.

#28 Nonplused on 01.04.20 at 7:32 pm

“#16 Tyberius on 01.04.20 at 4:43 pm
“The cardinal rule of technical analysis is “to invest with the trend”, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Everything else is just noise.”

– – –

Yes, the “trend is your friend”…until it isn’t, I guess.”

– – –

The trend has been up since the renascence. So about 400 or 500 years. It will end one day due to resource depletion, loss of insects, soil erosion, plastic in the ocean, over-fishing, who knows. But until then you have to keep dancing until they pull out the last chair.

#29 MF on 01.04.20 at 8:05 pm

#27 Nonplused on 01.04.20 at 7:21 pm

I agree with this analysis completely.

That General had a target on his back for a long time. He looked to have had many enemies abroad and at home.

The repercussions from Iran will basically be more of the status quo: funding to fundamentalist “proxy miltiias” that will strike US and US allies, while claiming to be the victim the whole time to media sources and the UN.

Pretty ballsy move by Trump though. Not only diverts attention from the impeachment that no body cared about anyways (except his detractors which are a minority but really really loud), but also brands anyone who condemns the attack as a terrorist supporting traitor.

MF

#30 Lorne on 01.04.20 at 8:21 pm

Trump would eat Warren in debates
……
Really? You appear to be extremely delusional!

#31 the Jaguar on 01.04.20 at 8:28 pm

Wow. Big bio’s on both Mark Carney and Evan Siddall in the Post and Globe & Mail today. Both exiting their current jobs in 2020. Hard to know what to think given the current state of Canadian politics and possible opening ‘vacancies’ in party leadership. Siddall being quoted on common sense, while Carney blustering about ‘Climate Change’ and he also chose Eric Reguly a media darling carefully to conduct and publish his interview. Interesting. Every move these days is so very ‘orchestrated’. I long for lapses in judgement.
Scary that the two of them both worked at Goldman Sachs in previous lives….
Siddall is a Toronto boy and Carney ( like Jordan Peterson) a product of the Alberta hinterland. Funny how worlds collide sometimes.
If Garth is snooping around tonight I might point out that the absence of a photo of Bandit for some time is puzzling, and comments about a New Years day ‘throw up’ at 4 pm concerning. Enough said.
I should mind my business. Good luck with that scenario.

#32 Nonplused on 01.04.20 at 8:58 pm

#29 MF

This is sort of a conspiracy theory, but I think Trump was somewhat forced to act because of the impeachment. War against Iran and Russia are long standing tenants of the US military, political and moneyed classes. Where does Pelosi come from? California. Where do most of the munitions come from? California. You’ll notice if you read the news that when Trump acts as a salesman for the arms industry and sells a billions of dollars worth of things that kill to Saudi Arabia that’s all good, but when he says “why are we giving arms to Ukraine for free” he gets impeached for just having the conversation. But now that he’s killing Iranians the articles of impeachment might not ever flow to the senate and certainly won’t be adopted. Trump had a choice in my conspiracy mind with my tin-foil hat on, either go to war with Iran or with Russia, or be impeached. The right choice would have been to allow himself to be impeached and retire to Florida, but if he wasn’t going to chose that or maybe couldn’t because they have even bigger threats against him we don’t know about, Iran was a better target than Russia. Iran is a wooden barn, Russia is a concrete bunker. With nuclear missiles.

And if Trump had refused to strike well he would have known that he can’t predict what his replacement would have done. Socialists always go to war. They have to. Their economics don’t work so they must steal stuff. Once the citizens run out of money the army goes on the move.

#33 Ronaldo on 01.04.20 at 9:10 pm

#17 Shawn Allen on 01.04.20 at 4:50 pm
TSX not up much since 2008?

#12 Eddie on 01.04.20 at 4:19 pm

The S&P/TSX is trading at just 14 per cent above the high in May 2008. Investing in GIC was better investment

*************************************
Sure but most people invest at least annually and not all at once in May 2008.

How does the comparison look with annual investments each year since 2008?

Also would you go all GIC today?

Factor in dividends – that adds 2-3% per year. – Garth
—————————————————————–
Depends what sector you were in. If you take RBC for example on Jan. 1/08 it was 50.71. Today its $103.41, over double. If you take the low on Feb. 23/09 it was 25.90. That is a 300% return.

Over 60% of the TSX is made up of Financials, Energy and Materials and the financials have been the drivers of the TSX since the GFC and our resource stocks are in the tank so the reason for the levels of the TSX being flat for some time now. I suspect we will see a reverse of that in the months to come.

If you recall, The TSX reached 10,000 for the first time in March of 2000 but at that time Nortel (Information Technology) made up a third of the TSX by itself which was a bit of an oddity and a bit strange that TPTB would have allowed one company to dominate the value of the TSX as it did. Today, Info Tech only makes up 5.65% of the index top ten. If one were to take out Nortel the proper level for the TSX at that time should probably have only been around 7000.

Looking back to the crash of 2008, had you had a crystal ball and just invested in the big 6 banks at the lows of Feb. 24/09 you would be up 300% today not counting dividends for those 10 years.

We can expect our materials and energy sectors to drive the next round and that is where I would place my money. Just my two cents worth.

#34 Lost...but not leased on 01.04.20 at 9:11 pm

DELETED

#35 Lost..but not leased on 01.04.20 at 10:18 pm

#34 Lost…but not leased on 01.04.20 at 9:11 pm
DELETED

=====

Thankx Garth!!!!

Badge of Honour !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#36 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.20 at 10:39 pm

#29 MF on 01.04.20 at 8:05 pm
The repercussions from Iran will basically be more of the status quo: funding to fundamentalist “proxy miltiias” that will strike US and US allies, while claiming to be the victim the whole time to media sources and the UN.
………………………………
Correctamundo. Iran will strike thru its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houtis, cyber attacks,etc. My further prediction is that Trump will not waste his ammo going after the little fish, he will go at Iran directly by taking out their oil refineries, navy, air force, etc. He will hurt Iran directly, starting at the top and working his way down until the nonsense stops.

#37 The Great Gazoo on 01.04.20 at 10:43 pm

“Strategist instead looks at the big picture and forecasts things like the economy, interest rates, the equity markets and which sectors will out/underperform.”

Based on your outlook for corporate profits and equity markets suggests to me interest rates will increase modestly. Would appreciate your outlook for interest rates in 2020.

#38 Fed Up on 01.04.20 at 10:47 pm

#31 the Jaguar

Most of of Dawgs know; or are updated/educated to what Garth and his team are forecasting. If there is a conflict of interest then it is up to the one’s that contradict or differ to offer some solid solutions without breaking the bank.

Those that are saying that Gretta, Gore, Suzuki, minus there lifestyles are correct are the most mis educated, idealist or just naive people on this planet.

Do humans make a difference, sure, does minimal solar activity make a difference sure, look it up, did dinos ehhabit Alta and North America, sure look at what we are pulling out of the earth because of them and other factors. Does climate change?? All the time! Is China contributing the most CO2? Yep, let us all buy more products for them to create the worlds greatest economy. It just baffles me that these climate fanatics just do not get it. Hey Greta flew home; another hypocrite!

Seriously people; sure things need to change; but it takes “MONEY” not selfies or news or bloody stupid, adolescente views that the world is going to blow up tomorrow. It is NOT true!!!!!!!!!

For Christ sake a few millions years ago there were dino’s roaming our country side; the sun is at a solar low right now; huge forest fires always happened with minimal destruction and horrible forest management. In the past it always burned until humans put a stop or tried to put a stop to it. Holy crap educate yourselves and stop the bullshit!

The green heads appeared with with ideology and nativity as well as there well thought out political aspirations, hypocrisy of a get rich scheme to shop on the Champ de Elysee! Remember Haiti!

Hey, I bought the kool aid and donated for many years to these so called environmental groups until I finally wised up! Yes there are problems; but nothing that has not happened in the past; are we getting better; you bet; think how much cleaner our air and water is now comparing to the 70’s; forest are actually expanding (look it up); shit in the climate is always going to happen and if you are a nerd like me the look at the past weather forecasts; we are tying or breaking records now with 5 billion more people; more of the severe records where at 1890 to 1945; science anyone!!

We are getting there but mils or gen z shut the hell up enjoying the life your ancestors created for you and just start creating and making a cost efficient new ways to live you bloody self absorbed whiners; you are all becoming very pathetic hypocrites; love the the gen-x and boomers! :)

#39 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 01.04.20 at 11:33 pm

BREAKING NEWS: EPIC BATTLE

Holy, righteous, heroic, good guy
American President Donald J. Trump
(Blessed be his name!)

versus

Evil, wicked, mean, and nasty terrorist, and all-around bad guy
Major General Qassem Soleiman
(May ten thousand camels poop on his grave!)

Results now in!

DJT: Big win.

QS: Big loss.

#40 Keyboard Smasher on 01.05.20 at 1:01 am

Hi Ryan, technical analysis is just a recording of historical values, like a fossil. I don’t think lines dragged across a chart impart any kind of force on real prices.

How do you see Canadian O&G performing this year?

Regarding the Iranian guy whose name everyone learned of just 2 days ago.

Let’s be clear about what they just did – assassinated two key military and political leaders on the sovereign territory of Iraq without the permission of the Iraqi Government. They justify this attack because of prior Shia terrorist attacks during the 2003-2008 period in Iraq that killed U.S. troops. There is no evidence or valid intelligence that shows Soleimani directing Iraqi Shia militias to attack and kill US troops. None. But those facts do not matter.

Judging from the media reaction on cable news, there is a lot of whooping and celebrating the death of Soleimani as a decisive blow against terrorism. Boy we showed those Iranians who is boss. But that is not how the Iranians see it and that is not how a significant portion of the Iraqi Shia population see it. From their perspective this is the equivalent of the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor. It is an unjustified act of war. I am not arguing that they are right. I am simply pointing how the Iranian leadership likely views this act.

#41 Dr V on 01.05.20 at 1:35 am

22 gfd – the assessment values are more a symbolic gesture to the homeowners. They wont have to pay tax on a home they cannot occupy.

This is gonna be a big court battle.

#42 Hurtin' Albertan on 01.05.20 at 2:00 am

Heads up Alberta condo owners/buyers:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6363998/alberta-condo-owners-insurance-deductible-changes/

#43 Whadda' mess on 01.05.20 at 2:04 am

DELETED

#44 Karlhungus on 01.05.20 at 2:31 am

I thought you didn’t believe in trickle down economics??? Why would lower corporate tax rates result in more growth if you don’t believe in it ?

#45 Stan Brooks on 01.05.20 at 5:19 am

The only topics for 2020 is inflation and zero rates.

As pricing is measured in depreciating crappy currencies (i.e. the measurement is faulty), value of certain real, non-credit driven assets will rise.

Stock markets will most likely outperform further, as inflation increases and rates are capped, so will materials and energy.

Gold will shine.

Labour will straggle as wages are capped.

Stagflation here is a certainty.

The prices of everything of value (food, rents, services) will keep rising (at least 8-10 % annual real inflation/cost of living) so the squeeze for the sheeple that persist in ‘making it here’ will continue making the big cities practically unlivable.

Cheers,

#46 NoName on 01.05.20 at 8:56 am

Hey Ponzi

Here it is your cousin “reengineered” tesla 3 in to what was supposed to be at first place. And actually made it cheaper to…

(german language)

https://edison.media/tesla-model-3-faehrt-besser-mit-hybridantrieb/25198866/

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 9:01 am

@#40 Keyboard Smasher
“I am simply pointing how the Iranian leadership likely views this act.”
++++

The Iranian dictatorship has been screaming “Death to America” for 40 years.
And now, when one of their top military leaders is taken out while planning another of endless attacks on US personnel, the are shocked and outraged?

I think the US can handle more of their threats, demonstrations and “attacks”…

Can an unpopular Iranian dictatorship handle more of their key people joining the “Pink Mist society”?

Iran needs a civil war to clean out the corrupt, murderous regime at the top and start over…apparently, with US help.

#48 NoName on 01.05.20 at 9:28 am

interesting read and few deep thoughts…

Facebook did a few thing right, it connected me and help me “keep in touch” with friends and people that would be very difficult to find or maintain any contact or relashiptions. Plus gave me added bonus dopamine release with every like i receive.

But, boy does FB sells lots of bourbon…

Who New

Maybe the next decade of drinking won’t be so bad. Maybe people will again start tasting their bourbon. Like on the Bourbonr Facebook group, which implemented a new rule recently: If you post a photo of a bottle, it needs to be open. That ostensibly prevents people from posting “bourbon porn” to fish for offers (few people will chance buying an open bottle). The bigger goal is to get bourbon fans to stop coveting it, fetishizing it, doing anything necessary to acquire it, and then greedily using it as an asset for profiteering. It seems to be a success.

(no its not success, but its ok with me for them to think that)

https://www.esquire.com/food-drink/drinks/a30298851/bourbon-boom-facebook-black-market/?source=nl&utm_source=nl_esq&utm_medium=email&date=010520&src=nl&utm_campaign=19064886&utm_term=AAA%20–%20High%20Minus%20Dormant%20and%2090%20Day%20Non%20Openers

#49 NoName on 01.05.20 at 9:36 am

@#40 Keyboard Smasher

luckily i saved what i was planning to post yesterday, but i didn’t get around it, in response to keyboard strategists like you and me…

Regarding “droning” other day, posturing and typing who knew what and when and why it happen, was it a timely and correct decision and few deep thoughts.

Many are pointing out what will be happening from now on, and commenting on decision as a “reckless and premature”, but all are conveniently leaving out that whatever that are predicting that will happen in future from is already happening.

I know/knew work with few people from irn and I can tell you no one will lose any sleep over that dude.

Anecdotal story, former colleague of mine had a sister imprisoned for years, (actually decades 17 or 19 yrs) because she mouth of to some one and protested against only two genders only allowed government. When she was only in her teens ( if i recollect correctly), Yes it is true and it was simple as that, and its a true story.

I remember same colleague telling me and other dude in office about her getting a new passport with picture with that thing on her hair so she can enter a country “problem free” to see a sister after all those years.

I implore everyone one of you experts to find strait thinking person from region, and talk to them about what happens over there.


Happy video dancers sentenced to 91 lashes and jail
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29272732

here is video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYnLRf-SNxY

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 9:56 am

Apparently even the Pentagon Generals didnt think Trump would go for the most severe response….

oops.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-nyt-trump-decision-to-kill-soleimani-20200105-we7fksvu25farhbbb2wkwv3zfm-story.html#nt=oft-Double Chain~Flex Feature~top-news-curated-chain~trump-soleimani-sat-815p~~1~yes-art~curated~curatedpage

#51 Dharma Bum on 01.05.20 at 9:58 am

But investors need to be prepared for more volatility and expect more muted gains compared to the awesome 2019. – Ryan
——————————————————————–

Awesome.

Like, totally, man.

#52 oh bouy on 01.05.20 at 10:08 am

@#38 Fed Up on 01.04.20 at 10:47 pm
_____________________________

LOL

#53 NoName on 01.05.20 at 10:32 am

something fishy is happening…

https://twitter.com/jedimarkus77/status/1213840289191923718

#54 Keyboard Smasher on 01.05.20 at 10:32 am

>crowdedelevatorfartz

Low IQ response.

Given that the American-Israeli barbarian pariah states seem to understand nothing but violence and destruction, it should be crystal clear to the Iranian leadership that a nuclear arsenal with means of delivery, is the only way to restrain US bellicosity and ensure peace in the region.

If Iran were rational, they should forget about some petty act of retaliation, but focus with laser-like precision on a nuclear warhead. Once they achieve that, Iran is simply untouchable, just like North Korea.

And regional agitators like Israel will have to do the unthinkable and *GASPS* negotiate with Iran…. Imagine the horror.

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.20 at 10:44 am

Timmy “What percentages would you allocate between CDN, US and Intl?”

Currently we’re at 23% CAD, 19% US and 18% International. Europe rallied pretty good in Q4 on Brexit progress and we used that strength to reduce International and add a few % to US/Canada. Generally you could keep it simple and have an even 20% split between the three regions. The key point is to have more global exposure and not concentrate your portfolio in Canadian stocks as you end up overweighting resources and banks and underweighting technology, healthcare and discretionary stocks, which is where the growth is. – Ryan L

#56 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.20 at 10:59 am

Karlhungus “I thought you didn’t believe in trickle down economics??? Why would lower corporate tax rates result in more growth if you don’t believe in it ?”

Corporate earnings is different from economic growth/GDP. Cutting tax rates has an immediate effect. In 2018 US corporations saw their tax rate cut by a third so clearly that’s going to result in a large increase in profits for that year. But does this cut to corporate tax rates result in a significant increase in economic growth on a go forward basis? I don’t believe it does. – Ryan L

#57 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.20 at 11:05 am

The Great Gazoo “Based on your outlook for corporate profits and equity markets suggests to me interest rates will increase modestly. Would appreciate your outlook for interest rates in 2020.”

Yes rise modestly this year but for them to remain lower for a long-time. – Ryan L

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 11:07 am

The Australian Wildfires have now burnt 24,000 square miles.
To put that in perspective…..

The same land mass as:
Nova Scotia: 21,345 sq. miles + P.E.I : 2190 sq miles.

#59 NoName on 01.05.20 at 11:08 am

@#50 crowdedelevatorfartz

anything from chichago is ify in my books…

In fact, such a response was long overdue. I know from my own experience, as a former senior official in the White House and the Defense Department, that the United States had several past opportunities to kill Mr. Suleimani but each time decided against it. This restraint did not make the world safer. It only gave Mr. Suleimani more time to build his empire, and, moreover, it enhanced his mystique as a man with an almost superhuman ability to evade detection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opinion/trump-iran-suleimani-assassination-baghdad.html

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 11:35 am

My goodness!
Public sector unions seem to be losing the moral high ground.

45 comments after the article.
2 comments support the teachers.

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-public-high-school-teachers-to-walk-off-job-again

The optics of striking after 2 weeks of Christmas holidays….
Time to change their slogan “It’s about the kids.”
to something different….judging from the comments , it seems to be wearing a little thin….

#61 MF on 01.05.20 at 11:40 am

#36 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.20 at 10:39 pm

Yessir. There’s more too:

Expect a UN resolution “condemning” the United States’ “act of aggression” signed by a group of totalitarian countries that routinely jail and murder their own people while contributing nothing positive to planet earth.

Many allies will give wishy washy, mediocre, lukewarm responses because they are “scared” of upsetting the other side, which again, is composed of ruthless totalitarian regimes that jail and murder their own people and contribute zero positives to planet earth and human life.

There will also be more muted responses that may not garner international/media attention such as physical attacks or abuse of Americans who look like they support the military, or hate mail to American institutions committed by those who may be secretly sympathetic to the other side.

MF

#62 Sail Away on 01.05.20 at 11:59 am

In other news… Tesla detractors have been mighty quiet lately.

So quiet, you might mistakenly think they’re well-behaved. Tater? You out there?

#63 Ronaldo on 01.05.20 at 12:05 pm

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.20 at 10:44 am
Timmy “What percentages would you allocate between CDN, US and Intl?”

Currently we’re at 23% CAD, 19% US and 18% International.
—————————————————————
Interesting. Mine and wife’s is averaged out at 23, 20.8 and 17.3 so must be on the right track.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 12:17 pm

@#59 NoName
“This restraint did not make the world safer. It only gave Mr. Suleimani more time to build his empire, and, moreover, it enhanced his mystique as a man with an almost superhuman ability to evade detection…”
++++

Fair enough.
Believe me when I say I think eradicating one of Iran’s top shit disturbers was a plus for the West.

I just find it interesting that the previous two Presidents had the option and didnt take it due to Foreign Policy concerns.
I’m sure the fallout will be sporadic and for now…
uncoordinated…

Reminds me of Libya’s dictator Khadaffi immediately after 9-11 when everything was a “sh*tstorm” of confusion.
The Israeli’s took the opportunity and almost took him out with one of their deep cover agents ( a personal body guard of Khadaffi’s).
After that close call….
Didnt hear a peep from “The Colonel” for quite a while……
With drones and incredibly sophisticated satellites….it’s a whole new ball game.

#65 Sail Away on 01.05.20 at 12:21 pm

#52 MF on 01.03.20 at 8:09 pm
#48 Lost…but not leased on 01.03.20 at 7:52 pm

Lol reading comprehension not even once.

Complete sentences not visible for miles.

Cohesive arguments more absent than parliement on holidays.

I’d respond but I have no idea what you are saying.

MF

————————————-

MF, you mis-spelled ‘parliament’ in your English lit critique yesterday.

Thought you should hear it from a friend…

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 12:25 pm

@#54 Key bored
“Given that the American-Israeli barbarian pariah states seem to understand nothing but violence and destruction.”

+++++

Ahahahahaha.
Careful your bias is showing….
Perhaps you should move to that bastion of peaceful Persian democracy , Iran and protest the rising price of Gas? Or food?

Just remember to wear a bullet proof vest before setting out on your quest to express your opinion on the streets of Tehran.

#67 Sail Away on 01.05.20 at 12:31 pm

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 9:01 am

Iran needs a civil war to clean out the corrupt, murderous regime at the top and start over…

———————————–

Strong statement.

When you personally are directed to shoot these corrupt and murderous officials, I would assume from this that your answer would be an unequivocal yes?

#68 MF on 01.05.20 at 12:40 pm

#54 Keyboard Smasher on 01.05.20 at 10:32 am

How do you negotiate with a terrorist organization bent on your destruction?

The last thing the world needs a nuclear Iran, which openly supports fundamentalist “proxies” all over the mid east.

The fundamentalist element precludes any sort of negotiation from rational governments or people. It’s impossible.

Your post is hilarious. Maybe go complain to the UN.

MF

#69 TF on 01.05.20 at 12:50 pm

Interesting outlook.

Case in point had this been written 72 hours ago Iran would not have been mentioned. Mention of futures traders taking positions of 90 oil by March would not have come up. An emergency meeting with commodity taders-nada. Discussion about the safety of 1/3rd of the planets oil moving through the straights of hormuz now at risk (ie inflation) not calculated.

This is my point. Like the S&P 500 going up on PROJECTED multiples. Meaning the market is projecting higher earnings to justify the multiple. So those who are sitting on trillion of dollars of gains who could not sell last year (tax impact) are now watching to be the first to either double down or run for the exit.

Lets be honest. Nobody wants to use the last 13 months of performance. Just the last 12 months. Why? Well look at last December.

I wonder what the predictions will look like in the next 72 hours. After the Iranian burial and the next round of 3000 troops land in the middle east. Oh wait…hint? Iraq is currently voting to EXPEL all us soldiers.

Absorb that.

#70 Sail Away on 01.05.20 at 1:02 pm

From Dostoyevsky’s character Alyosha in ”The Brothers Karamazov’:

“…the more I love humanity in general, the less I love men in particular…”

This has morphed into: “I love mankind; it’s the people I can’t stand”

———-

The thing is… Dostoeyevski was using this as ridicule of the person with high-minded ideals who can’t relate to their own neighbour.

#71 TurnerNation on 01.05.20 at 1:22 pm

#9 Jeff Sharon in my opinion the government actor known as JT has been retired. Behind the scenes UN pet “Un-Freeland” has the power and soon is set to take centre stage.
Et tu, Geo. Sorrows?
This country as we know it is long gone. Our cities flooded to the seams with more people, drugs/guns, and homeless camps. WW3 is in swing. Class warfare, generation warfare, social media warfare, cultural warfare, special interest group warfare; you name it they got us on the run over multiple fronts. Divided we stand united we fall unfortunately.

#72 TF on 01.05.20 at 1:24 pm

As a foot note. As Iraq votes to expel the US from all soil and air.

There are 5,000 us soldiers in Iraq with another 3000 flying over right now.

Iraq wants usa out.

And as one person put it…if we wake up tomorrow with a tanker sunk in the straights of hormuz tomorrow we will be seeing a reorganization of the middle east. As a whole.

#73 MF on 01.05.20 at 1:31 pm

Sail Away on 01.05.20 at 12

Lol I know saw that afterwards.

Good catch. Damn iPhone (my excuse)

MF

#74 Ronaldo on 01.05.20 at 1:37 pm

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.20 at 11:07 am
The Australian Wildfires have now burnt 24,000 square miles.
To put that in perspective…..

The same land mass as:
Nova Scotia: 21,345 sq. miles + P.E.I : 2190 sq miles.
—————————————————————–
Or, twice that of Vancouver Island. That’s big.

#75 short horses on 01.05.20 at 7:35 pm

Excellent post, Ryan — thank you for sharing your insights!

#76 dosouth on 01.06.20 at 12:05 pm

“…Actually many of today’s wrinklies would also be financial toast if real estate had not saved their sorry hippie butts. ”

So this “horde” of money will go somewhere, oh that’s right…..to the whiners Gen X,Y and Z, as their relatives pass on their successes from decades of luck and mostly hard work….and still not happy enough.