Day two

Welcome to 2020, shoppers!

Believe it or not, the ‘spring’ real estate market begins within the next few days in Vancouver and the LM. Within two weeks it will be rolled out in the GTA. After that it’s basically rutting season everywhere, with the exception of frozen Quebec, the flat places and (of course) that Barbarian Wexit province.

As this shiny new year unfolds, what’s the state of everything? Here’s a quick review.

The cost of money
Cheap, cheap, cheap, despite the fact central banks have basically stopped dropping their rates. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages are available at a slew of dodgy places where they also sell falafels, for 2.7% or less. Major banks are hovering around the 3% mark. When inflation is more than 2%, this is a bargain. So it bodes well for housing, at least for now.

The news
What people believe about the economy is actually more important than the economy itself. Last year here was concern about the inverted yield curve thingy, crazy Trump’s trade war, the dismal Canadian election, impeachment, scary recession headlines, Brexit, Hong Kong, Turkey, Syria. Ukraine and Greta. After a decade of uppa-uppa, it seemed things were headed for a wall. Or a cliff.

But now? Maybe not. Stocks are at record highs, and going higher. A China-US deal is two weeks away. Trump and Trudeau are still here. No recession on the radar. Brexit getting done. Wexit fizzled. Millennials are finally maturing.

The markets
All real estate is local. Most real estate boards fudge and deceive. But it appears Victoria is stable, YVR has more detached price declines coming (this week’s assessments are brutal), Cowtown and Edmonton are comatose, Saskatchewan and the Peg are frozen, SW Ontario and the GTA are gaining strength, Montreal is hot, Halifax is boring-okay and NB is where the snow gets put. Last year prices overall went nowhere even though mortgages got cheaper and wages increased. But so did debt. The party may indeed be over. Despite this…

The politicians
Last year governments were shameful, while people trying to get elected were worse. The federal Libs unveiled a wacky shared-equity mortgage scheme inviting moisters to partner up with CMHC. Ottawa boosted the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan by a whopping 40% so a newbie couple can now suck $70,000 out of their retirement plans to spend on an inflated house. The stress test rate dropped – not by a lot, but still a reduction. And during the election T2 upped the Home Buyer Incentive limit and introduced new homeowner credits while the Cons promised to gut the stress test and shower new green money on property owners. In short, our elected people did all they could to make a house less affordable by increasing demand. Brilliant.

What’s next
Looks like the Bank of Canada will be sitting on its hands for the next few months. Maybe the whole year. Inflation is tame. The Fed in the US is likely on hold until the election in November. Trade tensions are easing. Employment, corporate profits and GDP growth are all okay. So with low mortgage costs and pent-up demographic demand, this should be generally positive for housing.

But not entirely. Prices are still wholly unrealistic for average families in the major centres (other than Montreal). Household borrowing sits at record levels. And increasing. Debt servicing costs have shot higher, despite cheap loans. The savings rate is appalling. Household finances didn’t improve in 2019 – they slipped. Political tensions increased.  Banks are laying off and the oil patch is sick. The next budget will raise taxes.

In 2019 national house prices rose about 2%. In Toronto the gain was 7%. In Vancouver values fell 5%. In Montreal, the market was up 6%. In Calgary, down 2%. No boom. No bust. All real estate is local, and factoring in the high costs of buying, owning and selling a house, almost nobody made money on property.

Meanwhile stocks markets advanced between 20% and 30%. A boring, low-vol balanced portfolio grew 15.2%.

Draw your own conclusions.

Note: no realtors were injured in the preparation of this article.

 

 

116 comments ↓

#1 Vladimir on 01.02.20 at 1:50 pm

“YVR has more detached price declines coming (this week’s assessments are brutal)” – I am curious about the source of this information.

BC Assessment. – Garth

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

“Barbarian Wexit province” isn’t that the backbone of the Conservative party? Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

That was called ‘Progressive Conservative.’ – Garth

#3 the Jaguar on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

The statistics for the lower mainland and BC interior housing are not surprising ( being down ), but given they are year over year stats they don’t really tell the whole story. The rubber meets the road for those who purchased at the market high point (spring 2017 or thereabouts), with high leverage financing, who may need to sell this year for any number of reasons. Vancouver Sun is reporting drops of as much as 15% in some hoods. Some peeps must be under water, and when you buy into a sky high market the shortfall after mortgage payout and realtor fees might really sting. Hopefully those affected will be able to finance their way out of it if cash resources aren’t there…
Conspicuous consumption versus living better with less. Get ready for the ‘knock out’ round.

#4 world traveller on 01.02.20 at 2:35 pm

The politicians had no choice in regards to updating the stress test.
While trying to fix the market they pushed more people into renting which we know is causing extremely low vacancy rates in most major cities, along with renovictions, airbnb the landlord tenant act and generally crappy choices for renting unless you want to pay big bucks.
Not to mention developers are only really building condos and the government has no desire to build rental housing.

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 01.02.20 at 2:49 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

_____________________________

I’ll second that.

#6 Dwilly on 01.02.20 at 3:12 pm

Hey Garth, random question of the day. Do you ever worry about a brokerage going bankrupt / being hacked / something happening? Does Canada have access to a Direct Registration System like the US? What do you think about it?

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.20 at 3:18 pm

“Believe it or not, the ‘spring’ real estate market begins within the next few days in Vancouver and the LM. ”
+++++
Spring is close…

I drove down Boundary road this morning about 11am.
Looked over at a Japanese cherry tree on a corner lot. Starting to blossom.
Yesterdays 12 c and sunny has tricked the trees into thinking Winter is over.
Feb usually brings one surprise snow storm and March is Blossom month….

#8 Jacque Strappe on 01.02.20 at 3:22 pm

Meanwhile stocks markets advanced between 20% and 30%. A boring, low-vol balanced portfolio grew 15.2%.

————————————————————————-

Because markets tanked at the end of December 2018.

What are these figures over two years?

That’s a total return for 2019. Too bad you missed it. – Garth

#9 Drill Baby Drill on 01.02.20 at 3:40 pm

We need a revamp in this country on the reporting of the inflation rate. How about an inflation calculation that takes into account food, schooling fees, fuel, electricity, municipal taxes, hell why not all levels of government taxes. When the business reporters state that the official inflation rate is 2% I call complete BS. More like double that amount as a minimum.

#10 Stan Brooks on 01.02.20 at 3:43 pm

Inflation is tame…

Except inflation in rent, housing, food, assets, electricity costs, education, health care/medications, services, everything else (cheap TVs, socks, cheap underwear) is deflating. Sure. Pass the booze.

Cheers,

#11 Stone on 01.02.20 at 3:57 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm
“Barbarian Wexit province” isn’t that the backbone of the Conservative party? Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

That was called ‘Progressive Conservative.’ – Garth

———

Progressive Conservative? Sounds like an urban legend to me. It’s as real as the Sasquatch. Or Adele (or Drake) becoming Garth’s favourite performer.

#12 Flop... on 01.02.20 at 3:58 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.20 at 3:18 pm
“Believe it or not, the ‘spring’ real estate market begins within the next few days in Vancouver and the LM. ”
+++++
Spring is close…

I drove down Boundary road this morning about 11am.
Looked over at a Japanese cherry tree on a corner lot. Starting to blossom.
Yesterdays 12 c and sunny has tricked the trees into thinking Winter is over.
Feb usually brings one surprise snow storm and March is Blossom month….

////////////////

Well, I was going to do an in depth Vancouver real estate update after a review of The Flop Files, but I will just let the fake flop plagiarize this guy’s efforts on Twitter…

https://mobile.twitter.com/mortimer_1

Nothing else to do except turn Greaterfool into Canada’s best gardening blog.

To Crowdies point about the cherry trees, yesterday’s weather was also enough to entice the tulips in the front yard to reach for the sky.

No Pink Pollen yet.

Only in Vancouver real estate…

M45BC

#13 Yukon Elvis on 01.02.20 at 4:06 pm

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 01.02.20 at 2:49 pm
#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

_____________________________

I’ll second that.
…………………………………

Imagine running a campaign with a balanced conservative budget. What are u gonna cut? Lower child care benefits? Lower transfer payments to Quebec? Raise taxes? No chance of getting elected.

#14 Penny Henny on 01.02.20 at 4:21 pm

#114 TalkingPie on 01.02.20 at 12:00 pm
Count me as another who considers the car lease advice to be incomplete.

If your ride of choice is something new, expensive, and you plan on trading every few years and driving moderate mileage, by all means lease and chalk it up as the cost of luxury. This is doubly true if you gravitate to German cars; they’re unreliable post-warranty and the leases are often subsidized.

If the goal is reliable, economical transportation over the long haul, I’m a proponent of buying a quality used car and keeping it. With a lease you’re perpetually paying the steepest part of the car’s depreciation curve, and although you may not have capital tied up in it, you’re still paying a money factor on it. You also get hosed if you drive high mileage or bring it back in a condition other than what the dealership deems acceptable. If you drive very low mileage, you’re paying for something you didn’t use.

Likewise, fair-weather toys can be bought used and in great shape for steep discounts and enjoyed for many years. My ’99 Miata has no rust, is reliable, enjoyable, and has cost me about $3,000 in depreciation and about that figure again in maintenance and upgrades over the 8 years I’ve driven it. Try doing that with leasing.
/////////////

TalkingPie that was the most sensible comment on leasing vs buying made in the comments section.
I was in the car ‘biz’ for 25 years and spent over 15 as a lease specialist and judging by the comments here many people have no idea which end is up.
BTW Miata, great car!
I had a NB for 12 years.

and Nonplussed stick to commenting on things you ‘know’ about.

#15 Alex Adel on 01.02.20 at 4:38 pm

So….. Should I buy?

#16 Linda on 01.02.20 at 4:47 pm

Dog pic of the day takes the prize for the most adorable ‘cereal killer’:)

This inflation thing. I’m beginning to believe real estate boards are amateurs in numbers manipulation compared to government. We are supposed to believe inflation is flat, ho-hum, nothing to see here folks, move along. Except I keep getting these notifications. Property taxes to increase over 8% in 2020. Utilities & various municipal services are to increase, varied percentages but at least 2% or more. Work related health care benefit costs shot up 12.3%. Home & vehicle insurance costs went up 7.3% for the car, a whopping 25.5% for the house insurance. No claims on our part to justify it, though the headlines had mentioned that 2019 was another bumper year for insurance payouts due to various weather related events. So we all end up paying for that. Besides all of the above, the cost of groceries & fuel also going up. So I expect the next inflation numbers to be anything but flat, given the cost increases we’ve been told about thus far for 2020.

#17 islander on 01.02.20 at 4:47 pm

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/AssessmentSearch
– just type in an address to see lot and building assessments
Brutal for those SFH owners in West Vancouver and some condo/SFH owners in City of Vancouver.
Always a jolt to see building assessment vs land assessment in the lower mainland.
How many people are living in crappy old houses assessed at under 100,000 CAD while owning
2 or 3 million + CAD lots!
Unreal.

#18 Bigriders Nonno on 01.02.20 at 4:56 pm

DELETED

#19 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 01.02.20 at 4:59 pm

#15 Alex Adel on 01.02.20 at 4:38 pm
So….. Should I buy?
===============
Absolutely if
You have min. 20% down &
Mortgage+PropTax+Insurance (<=) Rent in decent neighbourhood * 1.2 &
Investments / RE = 60/40 max &
Commute to work less than 1 hr return trip

#20 Dave on 01.02.20 at 5:11 pm

House in Vancouver have been listed for over a year. Now everyone will be relisting houses hoping Chinese new year will ignite the market.

#21 Lobster Man on 01.02.20 at 5:13 pm

#1 Vladimir,

Here is an example of what’s been published:

A west-side property in Vancouver with a fair size lot of over 9,000 sq. ft. –

Year 2020 Assessment : $4,878,000
Previous year Assessment : $5,553,000
Recently sold (Dec 3, 2019) at $4,332,000

As Garth says, they are brutal.

Additionally, you know what the trend is…..

LM

#22 crazyfox on 01.02.20 at 5:27 pm

The pic was worth a chuckle, thanks for that.

May as well wade in with my 2 cents. The markets should be ok til’ spring, check the thermometer from there. Oil looks to be unchanged… and look at natural gas. These prices are below the cost of production and it’s January, peak demand. Max chart tells the story, more Alberta pain to come as O & G corps are typically weighted 70/30 gas to oil (like Encana was and where are they now). This pain is the structural, long term kind.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/ng%3Anmx

Players in the industry have known this was coming for a while now. Its long overdue the need for the rest of us Canadians to understand exactly why since the easily led, quick to treason over the drop of a dime Wexit fans led by politicians just as self serving and blind, do not get it. Still.

https://ajot.com/news/u.s-natural-gas-production-consumption-and-exports-set-new-records-in-2018

As evidenced from the chart above, the U.S. has become a natural gas exporter currently producing more than it consumes basically at the end of last year, as evidenced by prices and even with low prices, nat gas production will noticeably outpace consumption as the vast majority of new gas production is coming from oil production which remains profitable and continues to grow nationally by a million barrels of oil per day.

The scale of this growth, to give readers an understanding of the speed of it, Canada produces 4.9 million barrels of oil per day, with roughly 2.9 million coming from the tar sands. 2.9 million, that’s a mere 3 years of new U.S. oil production growth with the U.S. adding 7 million bpd of new production over the last 8 years with more to come.

If the U.S. keeps up this pace, couple this with peak light crude consumption in 2021 and the U.S. will no longer be buyers of our light crude oil production in 5 years or less and they are essentially no longer buyers of our natural gas now, except possibly to profit from international LNG export sales. simply put, us Canadians need to start thinking about ourselves.

I will remind, Paul Martin was saying we need to address this back when he was still PM? He was shown what Americans had planned with oil production and voiced it to reporters during his last election run back in what, 06′? Western Canadians think what they will, but Harper was a flop waiting on a Keystone pipeline that would not come, slow to anticipate international LNG market growth and above all, dramatically increased production growth of O & G coming from the U.S. … or worse than a flop, by knowing what’s coming and serving U.S. interests over Canada. With Harper heading the NCC back in the day, I still think its the latter.

On that note, Kitimat LNG is at minimum 4 years away from production, facing consolidation pressures in the meantime even though the project was approved last year. LNG also makes sense through Energy East and Trans Mountain once right of ways quiet down but LNG markets will face stiff competition from the U.S., Russia, Iran, Australia and Qatar. It’s not to say we shouldn’t be in the game from a pure economic standpoint (climate change be damned) but it is to say it won’t be easy and carry risk since land pipelines have cheaper transport costs than LNG. Russia for example, is twinning lines to China and building a line to NW Europe as we speak. Japanese markets and Asian island markets have a long term need for LNG but there is market risk, specifically with new gas production growth outside of NE BC. It’s going to be a rough few years or more for gas producers going forward. Heavy crude is a different beast though and should do ok.

Base metals could surprise. Inventories remain tight with copper, zinc and lead. Agricultural commodities look good as well and the dollar looks to hold its own. I like commodities overall this year and next except for gas, and I see the U.S. dollar beginning to deflate post 2020 that will help. I don’t see any near term currency drama… but in the medium term, depending on where global security is at, managers will need to look at more holdings in the Euro as the dollar fades or worse.

Inflation could surprise in Canada forcing rates to bump up marginally. I do see some risk there with BoC rates rising as much as .75% higher by the end of the year so lock in mortgages now if you can, as Garth says. The U.S. fed looks to be unchanged which leads one to ask, is it wise to have U.S. Fed rates so low with economic indicators as positive as they are? The Fed is behaving as though their choices are more politically motivated these days. I don’t think it’s at all wise to have rates so low. Generally the Fed raises rates .25% every 3 months. Their rate at 1.75% should be at least 2% higher than it is now with these indicators so… it creates risk of a prolonged recession if there is one with rates so low. This means gold should, if anything, rise more. Republicans, so good for oil and gold but paradigms are changing and that’s for another conversation.

#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm SEZ, IN PART:

“ Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.”
————————————————-
The problem with this is “Liberal Values” have shifted so far to the left and all of the grievance groups want every facet of their lives fully funded.

What I think most Canadians would support is a fiscally conservative yet socially libertarian government, which I define as “We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

#24 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:37 pm

#13 Yukon Elvis on 01.02.20 at 4:06 pm sez:

“#5 NotLegalAdvice on 01.02.20 at 2:49 pm
#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

_____________________________

I’ll second that.
…………………………………

Imagine running a campaign with a balanced conservative budget. What are u gonna cut? Lower child care benefits? Lower transfer payments to Quebec? Raise taxes? No chance of getting elected.”
—————————————————————–
Exactly. It’s the funding, stupid.

#25 real estate on 01.02.20 at 5:39 pm

i thought it was headed down, remember the big crash? OPPS!!!

it never ends, :)

#26 David on 01.02.20 at 5:48 pm

Hey Garth, where are you currently renting? I’m sure we’d all love to know. If you own when and where did you buy. Must have been at the absolute bottom of the market for you to own.

Look forward to your response

I adhere to the rule of 90. – Garth

#27 Ustabe on 01.02.20 at 6:05 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

“Barbarian Wexit province” isn’t that the backbone of the Conservative party? Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

That was called ‘Progressive Conservative.’ – Garth

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 01.02.20 at 2:49 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

_____________________________

I’ll second that.

The Conservative Party of Canada has three areas where they can put forth a coherent to a majority of Canadians platform.

The House of Commons where they will be the official opposition, during the upcoming leadership race and during the policy convention next November.

“Are we going to be a party that seeks power for the sake of power, or are we going to be a party with a comprehensive vision for the country?”

Get all three right and the cons might stand a chance…miss on any of them and its wilderness.

Personally I’m not keen on betting they manage all three…

#28 akashic record on 01.02.20 at 6:07 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.

Current “liberal values” can’t be maintained on “conservative budgets”.

That’s why you don’t see a party like that.

#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm

#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

#30 NoName on 01.02.20 at 6:21 pm

Paradimes are changing, I am not so sure about that, ok maybe a tiny little bit around energy, but that started way back under O, his administration was the one who was stalling pipeline.

I didnt heard anything major about retrofitting rafineries from heavi to light on some big scale.

Definitely It’s business as usual. Interesting read.

Today I’m going to write about the Trump the Trump administration’s surprising rejection of the traditional Republican free market orthodoxy. He is embracing a more traditional American concept for organizing the economy: Industrial policy.

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/trumps-surprising-embrace-of-industrial?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

#31 Sask to AB on 01.02.20 at 6:43 pm

re #22 crazyfox on 01.02.20 at 5:27 pm

Thanks for the post. Appreciate your insights.

#32 Ronaldo on 01.02.20 at 6:47 pm

#8 Jacque Strappe on 01.02.20 at 3:22 pm
Meanwhile stocks markets advanced between 20% and 30%. A boring, low-vol balanced portfolio grew 15.2%.

————————————————————————-

Because markets tanked at the end of December 2018.

What are these figures over two years?

That’s a total return for 2019. Too bad you missed it. – Garth
—————————————————————–
He and 70% of the others who were tied up in GIC’s and HISA’s paying 50% or more less than inflation. I doubt more than 10% saw 15.2% in their portfolio.

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.20 at 6:50 pm

@#29 IHCTD9
“#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

+++++++

Thirded!

#34 Inflation is tame on 01.02.20 at 7:00 pm

LOL! That’s comedy gold LOL!

#35 Bob Dog on 01.02.20 at 7:03 pm

We did it!

Congratulations to all. We created over 360,000 new Canadians in 2019 for no particular reason other than economic growth for the 1%. I have heard that whoever is pulling the strings on your elected puppets are trying for 400,000 next year. Housing crisis be damned.

Let’s focus on making more money and ignore the fact that 500,000,000 animals died in Australia in the last few months. Thats half a billion living breathing creatures. Nothing to worry about though, bank profits are just fine mate.

Let’s party till the wheels fall off and make fun at Greta while doing so.

This blog has solidified my belief that humanity is a cancer and is currently on its way through the Great Filter. A billion years from now, V’ger will be found and instill a sense of wonder about the long extinct species that sent her out into the cosmos.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

There is no housing crisis in Canada and increasing the population of a largely-empty land by 0.8% makes perfect sense. As for your other comments, you just lost me. – Garth

#36 acdel on 01.02.20 at 7:11 pm

My conclusion is; let us put our minds together, a highly educated populace; forward thinkers; we have it all; what are we going to do about it?

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.20 at 7:12 pm

Antone wanna buy former Lululemon mogul Chip Wilson’s house?
The assessed value of his “bunker” has dropped by $5 million…..

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/01/02/signs-of-a-softening-market-property-values-decline-in-metro-vancouver/

#38 Sold Out on 01.02.20 at 7:28 pm

#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm
#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

————————————————————

Are churches and private schools included in this ^?

Sign me up too, in that case:)

#39 Ustabe on 01.02.20 at 7:30 pm

#28 akashic record on 01.02.20 at 6:07 pm

#2 Theyounggreek on 01.02.20 at 2:04 pm

Someone needs to start a party with Conservative budgets and Liberal values. I’d vote for that.


Current “liberal values” can’t be maintained on “conservative budgets”.

That’s why you don’t see a party like that

Yet it seems various conservative budgets of late can support war rooms, fancy upfitted RV vans, cancellation of various programs with consultant contracts replacing same at greater cost simply because they were liberal programs. Etc.

May I remind you that it was a Progressive Conservative federal party that implemented Canada’s medical services plan?

The conservative movement in Canada and the CPC has to get current on climate, women’s health, LGBT issues. They have to stop giving tax breaks to those who do not need them and start not scaring the general population.

They are no longer going to be able to sneak into power with no platform and muddy policies, only to pull a Ford or Kenny and start picking the wings off butterflies at the expense of those who struggle to make it to the end of month. Like the nurses in Alberta, eh?

There is room for empathy and realistic policies that are big tent, not just focused on a narcissistic leader’s personal pet peeves.

#40 akashic record on 01.02.20 at 7:30 pm

#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

That would eliminate intersectional identity politics, which is the corner stone of “modern liberalism”.

Basically the remake of the good old class-warfare idea, where the disappearing classes are substituted with any combination (“intersection”) of any number of identities, as needed on any issue of the day.

It is not a new coherent ideology of ‘liberal values”, rather a political tool to gain power by creating broad ad-hoc, opportunistic coalition of your enemy is my friend. It is perfect to amplify the demands of even small groups for political influence or for funding.

#41 Ronaldo on 01.02.20 at 7:31 pm

Banner year for ETF inflows in 2019 but most invested in low yeilding etf’s so we can expect to see a large inflow into the equity etf’s starting once investors review their statements and FOMO sets in. Those who didnt panic last December and stayed balanced should be prepared for another boost between now and end of May. After that it may be wise to protect those gains and adjust into more conservative funds or etf’s for balance of the year. Interesting times ahead.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/etfs/video/etf-investors-miss-most-of-2019-gains~1864880

#42 BS on 01.02.20 at 7:55 pm

Wow what a year 2019 was. Then rewarded with a 1% gain to start the first trading day of 2020. The luxury condo I rent went down 15% on BC Assessment last year. What a difference, a 20% gain in my portfolio versus a 15% loss in my landlords rental property. Yikes a 35% plus difference had I bought a year ago. More to come in 2020.

#43 akashic record on 01.02.20 at 8:14 pm

#39 Ustabe

Since liberal parties co-opted intersectional identity politics as their main political tool, the idea of “Progressive Conservative” is a complete non-starter.

While various liberal fractions are competing to “out-liberal” each others, “progressive conservatives” will always be branded and ridiculed as “half-pregnant” at best, or just plain deplorable.

Conservatives measure “progressive” as a coherent social value, liberals measure “liberalism” as an opportunistic coalition building political tool to gain power.

Conservatives are crazy to play this game, its best to stick to the libertarian “We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

#44 leebow on 01.02.20 at 8:23 pm

#23 Bytor the Snow Dog

Now that’s some passive aggressive crap.

#45 Jacques Strappe on 01.02.20 at 8:28 pm

#32 Ronaldo on 01.02.20 at 6:47 pm
#8 Jacque Strappe on 01.02.20 at 3:22 pm
Meanwhile stocks markets advanced between 20% and 30%. A boring, low-vol balanced portfolio grew 15.2%.

————————————————————————-

Because markets tanked at the end of December 2018.

What are these figures over two years?

That’s a total return for 2019. Too bad you missed it. – Garth
—————————————————————–
He and 70% of the others who were tied up in GIC’s and HISA’s paying 50% or more less than inflation. I doubt more than 10% saw 15.2% in their portfolio.

———————-

Actually, Ronaldo, my portfolio is 90% in equities and has been for more than 20 years. In the long run, equities outperform bonds, and bonds outperform cash.

My point is that using the calendar year of 2019 to say the stock market is up 20% to 30% distorts the true narrative of recent stock market performance. Sure, it’s been good – but not 20% to 30% good if you go back 15 months, or 24 months.

Calendar-year measurement of returns is a norm. If you want to make the year 15 months long, knock yourself out. – Garth

#46 yvr_lurker on 01.02.20 at 8:44 pm

There is no housing crisis in Canada and increasing the population of a largely-empty land by 0.8% makes perfect sense.

————————————————–
I am pretty confident that a majority of the population of
people <40 years old in YVR, Toronto, and even the Okanagan where there are very few long term rentals due to AirBNB and prices out of whack with local incomes would vehemently disagree with your statement about a housing crisis. Your comment about the vacant land warranting large increases in immigration is theoretically correct, but bogus given that most end up in YVR and the GTA impacting the rental market for locals. Sorry, but my view is that we should not be trying to have a drink from a fire hydrant when it comes to immigration; I would advocate for much tighter controls and really biasing it to bringing in skilled workers rather than these grand family reunification schemes where the extended families come in.

On another note, I believe that a year ago, the moderator said that all of the special taxes in BC have not helped in affordability and that the money raised by Gov't barely offsets the amount that must be spent to collect it. Too bad I did not save those comments. To me it looks like a really positive step in YVR with the new assessments for the long-term viability of this city for younger LOCAL people. Prices are notably down and there is probably more to come. I don't care that my paid of place went down 10%. I feel bad for those who bought in the hyped market in 2014–2017 and who need to sell, but finally I feel a little optimisitic that the speculators, foreign $$$, and other parasites have been driven to the sidelines, and that eventually more local people starting out will have a chance. Let these parasites spurned on by the BC Liberals and Christy Clark go somewhere else. The elite Wilknson with his rental = "whacky time" comment does not have a prayer in the next election.

The crisis is with your expectations, not real estate. There is plenty of housing to go around in Canada. – Garth

#47 Ustabe on 01.02.20 at 8:48 pm

Conservatives are crazy to play this game, its best to stick to the libertarian “We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

but we ain’t funding it”.

Trouble is the current iteration of so-called conservatism in Canada seems all too willing to care about all that and continue to fund those that need it least, leaving a huge percentage of the population out of the loop.

BTW, the Ustabe refers to the fact that I used to be a dues paying, field working member of the Progressive Conservative party in Canada, at 72 years of age wouldn’t be caught dead voting for whatever it is they have morphed into.

Ponder this a moment: It wasn’t the kids who demanded a ribbon for all, it was their Boomer parents and teachers who inflicted it on them, pissed my kids off mightily.

Next, the entirety of the LGBT population is only +/- 4% of the North American population…why all the angst?

Next, Australia. All normal climate wise, right?

Get current, get left behind. Choice. Just like women should have.

Last, Canada just regained a top ten place in the performance metrics of industrialized nations. The pipeline is being built, all around me market and rental housing is going up and is both selling and being occupied. Despite the experts in this cess pit things are booming all around me. Kid next door works for one of the premier builders here, over the hols he told me they are booked out into next year. Fully booked out til into 2021. He’s 26, owns his home, 3 kids, mom stays at home.

Current cons can recognize that stuff and derive policy and platforms that resonate or whither. Choice.

Or continue to fuss about Greta, lay off health care workers while passing out tax cuts to multinationals and say it can’t be done.

There are plenty of us who say it can be done. Leadership, policy, platform is all it takes.

#48 twofatcats on 01.02.20 at 9:30 pm

In Ontario, flipping real estate is now seen as more financially secure than holding down a job:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-niagaras-hot-real-estate-market-is-emblematic-of-how-buyers-are/

#49 Sail Away on 01.02.20 at 9:55 pm

#35 Bob Dog on 01.02.20 at 7:03 pm

This blog has solidified my belief that humanity is a cancer and is currently on its way through the Great Filter. A billion years from now, V’ger will be found and instill a sense of wonder about the long extinct species that sent her out into the cosmos.

—————————–

Yo Bob, are you part of humanity? If so, enough with the self-hatred. You’re probably no better or worse than any other person.

Turn that frown upside down, fella!

#50 Poker Face on 01.02.20 at 10:08 pm

Yeeeeee Hahhhhhhh. It’s long overdue.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/top-iranian-general-qassim-soleimani-killed-in-us-airstrike-in-baghdad-pentagon.html

El Trumpo Magnifico, the golden God.

#51 Sail Away on 01.02.20 at 10:11 pm

#45 Jacques Strappe on 01.02.20 at 8:28 pm
#32 Ronaldo on 01.02.20 at 6:47 pm

————————————————————————-

Because markets tanked at the end of December 2018.

What are these figures over two years?

———————————————-

My point is that using the calendar year of 2019 to say the stock market is up 20% to 30% distorts the true narrative of recent stock market performance. Sure, it’s been good – but not 20% to 30% good if you go back 15 months, or 24 months.

Calendar-year measurement of returns is a norm. If you want to make the year 15 months long, knock yourself out. – Garth

——————————————

I’ll help you out with this, Strap: if your portfolio was down 2% in 2018, and up 17% in 2019, you would be fairly close to a gain of 15% over 2 years.

The truly amazing thing about math is that the same type of calculation works for any time period. Yes, it’s mind-boggling!

In general, though, you should manipulate statistics to best prove the point you’re trying to make at the time.

#52 Apocalypse2020 on 01.02.20 at 10:32 pm

As expected, with impeachment coming, Trump seeks war:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/middleeast/baghdad-airport-rockets/index.html

The rockets are fuelled.

Is your SUV?

The worst year in human history is just getting started.

PREPARE.

#53 Ronaldo on 01.02.20 at 10:35 pm

#45 Jacques Strappe on 01.02.20 at 8:28 pm

Actually, Ronaldo, my portfolio is 90% in equities and has been for more than 20 years. In the long run, equities outperform bonds, and bonds outperform cash.
——————————————————————
So what has been your average return from January 2000?

#54 DON on 01.02.20 at 10:35 pm

In Canada socialism, liberalism, conservatism and communism have all transformed into Voterism.

The art of getting the vote by appealing to greed and fear everything else be dammed.

If I had to pick from the current yahoos I would choose the Progressive Conservatives.

#55 Diversified in Oakville on 01.02.20 at 10:36 pm

Hey #32 Ronaldo,
17.87% 75/25 diversified portfolio gain in 2019.
Just saying. That was net of fee’s too.

#56 sam on 01.02.20 at 10:48 pm

dumb move Trump. Iran aint Iraq, better not go there or bye bye re-election…and that would mean bye bye equity markets

#57 HH on 01.02.20 at 11:04 pm

#1 – I heard assessments in Vancouver declined about 11%. I am in the Okanagan and mine didn’t move at all. Exactly the same as last year.

#58 akashic record on 01.02.20 at 11:22 pm

#47 Ustabe

“Ponder this a moment: It wasn’t the kids who demanded a ribbon for all, it was their Boomer parents and teachers who inflicted it on them, pissed my kids off mightily.”

I am sorry, I don’t understand the reference, I haven’t lived here long enough probably, so I can’t reflect on this.

“Next, the entirety of the LGBT population is only +/- 4% of the North American population…why all the angst?”

There is always angst about major changes in society. It’s perfectly normal. And at the end the only +/- 4% of the North American population has equal rights. That’s all what political parties can do, provide equal rights when due – and that’s a lot to accomplish. They can’t legislate how people think – and they shouldn’t. People, as individuals should evolve, at their own pace.

“Next, Australia. All normal climate wise, right?”

The collective memory of Hopi tribe describes, in remarkable details, 4 near-extinction level events on Mother Earth. Other native cultures around the world have similar memories. Who is to tell that we are not facing an other one? None of our ancestors could prevent them to happen. Who is to tell that we have become so mighty powerful that it is under our control now?

“Choice. Just like women should have. ”

Today, in Canada women have choice. Life is a sacred, ultimate gift. It’s expected to spark huge, long, passionate debates, if we recognize the value of this gift. The weight of this decision now rests on individual souls.

#59 oh bouy on 01.02.20 at 11:26 pm

@#38 Sold Out on 01.02.20 at 7:28 pm
#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm
#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

————————————————————

Are churches and private schools included in this ^?

Sign me up too, in that case:)
_______________________________________

bingo!

lets start with getting rid of the catholic school board and rescinding the religious tax exemption.

#60 TurnerNation on 01.02.20 at 11:29 pm

crazyfox why are you on here daily, harassing ordinary people trying to live in peace and go about their lives? Which agency are you working for?
If you’ve seen the news tonight the US in the Middle east just about started a war (the most profitable biz on earth) . My suggestion to you is start emailing the US military and let them know about their carbon output. All those war machines blazing. Ships, planes, rockets; spewing. Needlessly. Tell them to dial back the carbon ok?

#61 Spectacle on 01.02.20 at 11:34 pm

#26 David on 01.02.20 at 5:48 pm
Hey Garth, where are you currently renting? I’m sure we’d all love to know. If you own when and where did you buy. Must have been at the absolute bottom of the market for you to own.

Look forward to your response

I adhere to the rule of 90. – GarthDavid on 01.02.20 at 5:48 pm
Hey Garth, where are you currently renting? I’m sure we’d all love to know. If you own when and where did you buy. Must have been at the absolute bottom of the market for you to own.

Look forward to your response

I adhere to the rule of 90. – Garth

————— seriously—————
So he puts up with us pups ( idiots and all…) and some of us want his residential address owned and or rented !

Sir Turner bought a Ship this Year, and and has the requisit 2 wheeled Hog.

1) Stay invested,
2) follow His rules,
3) Don’t stalk the Man!

#62 Garth? on 01.02.20 at 11:41 pm

What were the returns for 2018? Dont think you ever posted ,why ?

Thanks

Balanced portfolio returns have been posted here routinely. The last four years were 8.5% (2016), 10.8% (2017), -3.1% (2018) and 15.22% (2019). The four-year return has been 8.6% and the eight-year return 7.3%. A little better than targeted. The people whose assets I look after have two goals: (a) don’t lose money, and (b) secure a reasonable long-term return. They also dislike volatility more than they lust for out-sized gains. Makes sense. – Garth

#63 The Year of Gold on 01.02.20 at 11:57 pm

You thought 2019 was a good year for gold ?

Ha!! Wait for 2020!!

Love it baby!!

#64 Bob on 01.03.20 at 12:06 am

‘more Canadians filing for insolvency since the financial crisis ‘

From the Toronto Star

Looks like Canada is on solid ground ,eh? Lol

#65 Dr V on 01.03.20 at 12:48 am

42 BS “versus a 15% loss in my landlords rental property. ”

How has your LL lost? Did he reduce your rent by 15%?

#66 Dave on 01.03.20 at 1:46 am

Everything changes if there is a hot war with Iran

#67 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 01.03.20 at 3:37 am

Very true regarding Calgary real estate — the market is flatlined. Condo sales are tanked with an overload of listings, crazy new condo builds sitting half empty, and anything over $1 million not selling. Many listings sitting on the market for years, some taken off market to reappear a month or two later, often with the same realtor sign.

Though current sellers are unwilling to get less than their perceived value of their properties and are reluctant to lower prices (even though values artificially inflated overnight in the mid-2000s and do not align with the reality of what physically exists). Many are stuck with home values now lower than the mortgage. Only those truly desperate to sell are dropping prices repeatedly.

Layoffs, cutbacks, the unemployment rate, and continuing economic morbidity have many struggling to make mortgage payments and unable to move due to the inability to sell.

Back in July, Mr. Turner posted about a Calgary couple anchored by house debt holding a contest hoping to obtain the value of the house through the entry fees. (https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/07/31/choices-16/)

That post was just one of five house contests being held in Alberta. All had been listed on the market for a long time.

The contest above has a very slick marketing site and quite the spin on the sales pitch. But the initial contest deadline of October 2019 has been extended to April 2020. One semi-finalist to be picked out of every 1000 entries of a pet photo and $35 entry fee. Winner picked when 105 semi-finalists picked. Currently, two semi-finalists are showing on the site.

The first contest was a $1.7 million house in Millarville (just outside Calgary).
– Essay and entry fee of $25 required. 68,000 entries needed.
– the listing price of house lowered to $1.495 million and the number of entries reduced to 60,000.
– Contest deadline extended a few times.

The sad part: the very distraught owner posted a lengthy (45 minute!) video explaining the results.
Number of eligible entries: just over 4000. (She actually received about 10,000 but the other 6,000 entries did not send in the entry fee — which was the whole point of the contest.)

The saddest part: she maxed out all her credit cards promoting this contest internationally.

The third contest is an acreage just east of Edmonton with a partially completed house. The owners are finding the costs too much of a burden, want to travel a bit, and now have some expenses for parental care.
– Entry is an essay and $250 fee. Only 2500 entries accepted.
– Deadline of August 2019 has been extended to March 2020 and entries lowered to 2100.
– The website has been revised and the stats removed but the last update showed 68 eligible entries, 7 with no fee, and 3 looking for “a sponsor”, i.e. someone else to pay the fee for them.

Fourth contest is a $1.7 million inn in southern Alberta. Entry is an essay and $100. No stats ever posted. However, deadline had been extended from October 2019 to January 2020. Notice posted on the site says the contest abruptly closed as of Dec. 1, 2019 and all entry fees will be refunded. No information or explanation given.

Fifth contest is a $403,000 house in Sherwood Park (bedroom community next to Edmonton). Entry is $10 and a guess on the value of Bitcoin on a specified date/time. 50,000 entries required.

It looks like house contests may be this era’s version of the 1980’s mailing your keys to the bank or selling for $1 but without having to take a loss.

#68 Hicksville Alberta on 01.03.20 at 5:45 am

# 35 Bob Dog

Totally agree with you.

It’s just not the fires in Australia. There were severe fires in California again this fall as well as the rain forests in Brazil et al and parts of Africa amongst others.

But none of that matters because it isn’t here yet.

However as the drying out will likely continue in North America, our forests are being geared up for some horrendous possibilities. Even prairie grass fires if you have ever been near one are frightening and can be very dangerous.

A not so fun statistic for you is that 2015 global plastic production was 322 million metric tonnes per year which was nearly 215 times more than in 1950. And at the 2015 rate, that would come to 3.22 billion metric tonnes cumulatively by the end of 2024.

Good luck with that one.

It’s way past time people start to seriously change the way they look at things and start acting accordingly, but i think time has fundamentally run out in any event.

Governments are worse than dumb and most people are even dumber because they elected the dumb governments in the first place and everyone wants more so the can do their rub tummies thing.

#69 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 6:15 am

#52 Apocalypse2020 on 01.02.20 at 10:32 pm
As expected, with impeachment coming, Trump seeks war:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/middleeast/baghdad-airport-rockets/index.html

The rockets are fuelled.

Is your SUV?

The worst year in human history is just getting started.

PREPARE.

——————————————

Maybe… especially if you live in Iran.

I participated in Gulf War #1, was irritated by, and received a letter of possible recall for Gulf War #2, and have adult kids for upcoming Gulf War #3.

For all overextended youth: your moment of freedom is at hand! March forth to forgiven student debt, paid university, and no bills for the next four years. You might even get to be a hero- but let’s be clear up front: doing your job doesn’t automatically confer hero status.

Oh, the places you’ll go with this unique opportunity to “travel the world, meet interesting and unique people… and kill them” ! Then you can return to this blog and join me in ridiculing whiners.

#70 Sparky55 on 01.03.20 at 6:20 am

Home values tumble by up to 15% across Metro Vancouver

http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5413018

#71 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 6:34 am

#64 Dr V on 01.03.20 at 12:48 am
42 BS “versus a 15% loss in my landlords rental property. ”

————————————-

How has your LL lost? Did he reduce your rent by 15%?

————————————–

Where did you learn one-upmanship? Don’t you know it’s always legit to claim another’s hard luck as your personal victory?!

If the LL’s mother died and #42 BS’s mother still lives, chalk up another win for BS!

#72 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 6:56 am

#63 Bob on 01.03.20 at 12:06 am

‘more Canadians filing for insolvency since the financial crisis ‘

From the Toronto Star

——————————–

Evolution has built us for stress, trauma and drama, and we require regular doses for good psychological health.

If it’s not present naturally through predation, starvation and conflict, we’ll create our own, but can sometimes swing too far the other way.

I personally use endurance races for artificial stress, but still take the time to help my wife by starting unnecessary arguments. It’s hard to be so giving!

#73 crazyfox on 01.03.20 at 7:05 am

Most of us are waking up to Trump’s air strike assassination of Iran’s top general last night. Republicans will say it was necessary. Dems will say its a continued pattern of consistent poor judgment. The Iranians have called it an act of war (which it is) and have promised reprisal.

What we get to witness in the media in the days leading up this event are revealed emails and document’s linking Trump ordering withholding $400,000,000 of aid to Ukraine which, having been requested by congress and WH giving heavily redacted documents instead to conceal the truth, equates to a clear obstruction of justice set apart from what these documents reveal. On the eve of impeachment, this story becomes secondary now to the story to the prospects of war.

This looks like Trump deflection tactics that could very well escalate into a war between Iran and the U.S. . This general could have been assassinated by the U.S. at any time up to this. Why now?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-budget-oil-revenue-1.5388579

Iran is currently running 40% inflation due to oil revenue shortfalls with spokesmen claiming a growing economy but mainly due to nominal GDP driven by inflation and debt. U.S. sanctions have led to domestic unrest that is spilling into Iraq.

The U.S. has strong armed the global oil industry to make way for ramped up U.S. oil production biting into world market share without cratering the price of oil so as to continue record U.S. oil production increases and has done so since 2017, through oil embargoes on Iran. With the advent of ownership of northern Iraq oil blocks from western “coalition of the willing” oil corps, Iraq oil production has also flowered:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/iraq-is-pumping-record-oil-disrupting-opecs-production-cutting-plans.html

The question with Iraq is, for how much longer. Is what we are witnessing with Iranian oil embargos nothing more than oil price fixing to fuel continued record new U.S. oil production growth? Iraqi protesters have successfully shut down a 98,000 bpd oil field and tried a run on the U.S. embassy there. is the U.S. assassination on Iran’s top military commander related to this unrest or simply a piece that needs to be removed from the board for future war plans?

Meanwhile, China, Russia and Iran have conducted recent Naval exercises with the world now wondering if the U.S. and Iran are headed for full scale war.

#74 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 7:32 am

T2 best mind his catty comments, or… KABOOM!

#75 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 7:45 am

#68 Hicksville Alberta on 01.03.20 at 5:45 am
# 35 Bob Dog

———————————-
Totally agree with you.

It’s just not the fires in Australia. There were severe fires in California again this fall as well as the rain forests in Brazil et al and parts of Africa amongst others.

Even prairie grass fires if you have ever been near one are frightening and can be very dangerous.

—————————-

Yes, there were prairie grass fires in ‘Little House on the Prairie’ before we had climate. Probably less hot fire, though.

#76 Apocalypse2020 on 01.03.20 at 8:01 am

“Crushing revenge. Harsh retaliation.”

https://news.sky.com/story/irans-supreme-leader-warns-us-faces-harsh-retaliation-over-generals-death-11900093

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-vows-revenge-harsh-retaliation-after-u-s-kills-its-n1109856

Iran is under siege, backed into a corner at home by high inflation, economic struggle, and civilian uprisings. It has nuclear allies and capability. But it does not have the luxury of time.

It is promising revenge. This will happen, very soon.

Trump is also in deep trouble. What has been revealed about him just the last 72 hours is stunning. He is headed off the cliff in 2020 if there is no distraction.

Russia, North Korea, China, are all silently prepared.

Catastrophe is racing towards us. Nuclear action is 80% probable within the next week.

Obtain liquid assets by 2:00 pm EST today.

PREPARE

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 8:08 am

@#43 Akashic recording
“intersectional identity politics……”
++++

I fell asleep after that….

Lets wait and see who inherits the Leadership of the PC’s AND how the Canuck economy is doing in 6 to 12 months…..
I dont think Trudeau could be that lucky again to run against such an uninspiring opponent.
Then again.
Its…..about…..jobs….
All the other politically correct horse manure means nothing if the govt doesnt have millions for painting rainbow sidewalks coast to coast and handing out free pink T-shirts….

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 8:18 am

@#67 Get out of Calgary
“It looks like house contests may be this era’s version of the 1980’s mailing your keys to the bank or selling for $1 but without having to take a loss.”
++++

Wow!
Cheesy raffles for houses in a Province thats’ broke.
Might explain the plethora of Alberta license plates I see everywhere on Vancouver streets.
Was at an intersection yesterday and saw 1 car and 3 trucks from Alberta. One of the vehicles plate expires on Jan 20th.
That Province is bleeding workers and they cant afford ICBC’s extortion rates…..

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 8:45 am

@#76 Apocalypse forever
“Obtain liquid assets by 2:00 pm EST today….
PREPARE”
++++++

My liquor cabinet is full of expensive single malt scotch.
I’m ready.

#80 Sail Away on 01.03.20 at 8:52 am

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 8:18 am

Might explain the plethora of Alberta license plates I see everywhere on Vancouver streets.

Was at an intersection yesterday and saw 1 car and 3 trucks from Alberta. One of the vehicles plate expires on Jan 20th.

——————————

Aha! Caught you exaggerating for effect, Fartz.

We all know Albertans don’t drive cars.

#81 Stan Brooks on 01.03.20 at 9:25 am

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 8:45 am

My liquor cabinet is full of expensive single malt scotch.
I’m ready.

I would also count on some quality Irish stuff and good old bourbon + some German pear schnapps.

The useless rock at all time high against the loonie, with miners up 40 % in the last year.

Higher transaction fees as a greeting from the bank in the new year.

Cheers,

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 9:33 am

@# 80 Sail Away
“We all know Albertans don’t drive cars.”
++++

Well.
If I may add an even more horrific vision to your Albertan nightmare scenario.

The “car” was a pink Mercedes SUV…

#83 NoName on 01.03.20 at 9:57 am

Yesterday there were few in steerage expressing their distrust on tourbo engines. Iam assuming that sludge buildup and black death of turbo engines from 80-s to early 90-s traumatized them…

Even now there are some non tourbo engines due to design that are prone to sludge buildup, so right here right now i’ll revile to them best not so secret remedy for that, summer time comes, run 15w40 diesel oil for one NEVER more than two gas thanks !!! ONLY !!!
You don’t want engine to clean.

10 best engines, most of them are tourbo engines

https://www.wardsauto.com/10-best-engines-propulsion-systems/2020-wards-10-best-engines-propulsion-systems-quick-hits?NL=WAW-04&Issue=WAW-04_20200102_WAW-04_343&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_5&utm_rid=CPENT000002460531&utm_campaign=23524&utm_medium=email&elq2=017aa0fc57bf4e97974b2af81d997a25&utm_source=27918

@in_hindsight2020 dude who started way before 2012

Interesting read, definitely read 119 page report, (first link in an article) you’ll be even more apoplectic.

read
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/01/what-us-intelligence-thought-2020-would-look/162185/?oref=DefenseOneTCO

and on a side note 2018 in canada 80% cars sold are light trucks, good like with battery cars, maybe battery litght trucks?!

#84 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 9:59 am

I used to say that I was fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
Not any more. the concept of socially liberal has moved so far left that I will never identify this way again.

It’s pretty interesting on what passes for progressive in the world today.
Today you are ‘progressive’ if:

– you believe that diversity is strength
– you believe that good diversity only refers to diversity of gender and race and not diversity of thought
– you believe in white privilege
– you believe in male toxicity
– that everything in life must be viewed through a gender/identity based lens
– you believe that a man can become a woman and a woman can become a man just by saying so
– that everyone should be forced, on threat of prison, to believe and support that a man can become a woman and woman can become a man.
-you believe that saying a man cannot become and woman, and a woman cannot become a man, is hate speech
– you believe that you can select your race, and hope to be able to self select your own species someday
– you believe that those that are successful in life, socially or monetarily, only achieved this through the subjugation of others.
– you believe that all corporations or inherently evil
– you believe that capitalism is evil and the world will only prosper though democratic socialism (whatever the hell that is)
– you believe that taxing the successful and redistributing not only their income, but their wealth as well, is a just and fair solution
– that running massive deficits during times of economic success is a good thing and will have no repercussions.
– that personal debt is not important
– that a 3% interest rate is too high
– that the ills of the world are caused by all western countries and that all history of these countries must be erased.
– that massive immigration of disparate cultures into homogeneous societies is a good thing.
– that women in the western world are an oppressed group.
– that your group identity and victim status is more important than your individual attributes
– that rights are more important than responsibilities
– that Canada should kill its energy industry, while the rest of the world fills the void
– that climate change is the most important issue the world faces today, but you do nothing personally to make changes in your life that validate this (well other than supporting the death of Alberta’s energy industry)
– that it is perfectly fine to abort a child, seconds before it is born

There are hundreds more example of ‘progressive nonsense’ of which I might add, none of which were core thoughts and beliefs of any of the mainstream parties 25 years ago.
Most of this nonsense was confined to the few marxist nutcases that made up the academic class. Now it seems to have become mainstream thought.

So Garth, as you long for the good old days of the ‘Progressive Conservatives’ take a thought to what progressivism actually means today, and what the once centrist Liberal party now actually believes and how they implement them in their mainstream day to day policies.

Given what is considered progressive, you can count me out.
I will never support a Progressive Conservative party if that means having to support the absurd polices and beliefs that pass for progressive today.

#85 Canada on 01.03.20 at 9:59 am

Trump is going to win, the Democrats go out in public and tarnish themselves on purpose they are all in it together the fake impeachment is nothing more than a pretend resistance in order to bluff a two party system meanwhile they pass all his laws give him all his funding and work together..they make millions of tax payers dropping bombs, stealing oil and forcing corporations to pay up if they want to play.

#86 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:01 am

“…with the world now wondering if the U.S. and Iran are headed for full scale war.”
____

Iran can not wage “full scale war” against the US, so no they are not heading for it.

Maybe a US based suicide bomber or other weak-ass and pathetic attempt at spooking folks is about all they’ll be able to muster.

#87 Phylis on 01.03.20 at 10:02 am

15.22% (2019) Uh oh. I am not balanced.
Rebalancing q. Multiple strategies can be devised. Pick one and stick with it or is there one statistically better than others or be flexible and take opportunities when they present themselves (a hierarchical approach)?

#88 NoName on 01.03.20 at 10:08 am

correction for 2018 cdn lght trck sls

80% wrong

70% not wrong

#89 Jack on 01.03.20 at 10:10 am

How can inflation be tame with such low interest rates? I guess if you look at the government’s inflation numbers this is accurate. If you live in the real world however, not so much.

#90 Gravy Train on 01.03.20 at 10:36 am

#51 Sail Away on 01.02.20 at 10:11 pm
“[…] I’ll help you out with this, Strap: if your portfolio was down 2% in 2018, and up 17% in 2019, you would be fairly close to a gain of 15% over 2 years.[…]” But your mean return is just 7.079%—assuming annual compounding. N’est-ce pas? :)

#91 crazyfox on 01.03.20 at 10:52 am

#86 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:01 am

Oh, your right, it would be a lop sided affair 1 on 1. Iran doesn’t have much effective recourse other than terrorism (lots of choices there) but history paints a different picture as allies join in. Lets not forget, WW1 began with an assassination:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I

#92 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:56 am

#59 oh bouy on 01.02.20 at 11:26 pm
@#38 Sold Out on 01.02.20 at 7:28 pm
#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm
#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

————————————————————

Are churches and private schools included in this ^?

Sign me up too, in that case:)
_______________________________________

bingo!

lets start with getting rid of the catholic school board and rescinding the religious tax exemption.
___

I have signed both of you up!

I don’t give a flying pigs @ss if funding for the separate school board is yanked. Or even if they just fold the whole thing into the Public system. I don’t know anyone who would give a rip about this.

Nor do I care if the Religious tax exemption is stripped – provided it is stripped from all other charities of every kind as well.

Might as well kill it all at once so we don’t have to listen to folks bitch and complain till the end of time over who gets it and who doesn’t.

Plus our broke-a$$ government really needs all that double taxation right now too.

#93 Re-Cowtown on 01.03.20 at 11:31 am

Hollywood putzes are mourning a terrorist who would kill them all without a moment’s thought.

Not sure that you can have a better example of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

#94 Gravy Train on 01.03.20 at 11:40 am

#84 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 9:59 am
“Today you are ‘progressive’ if you believe that running massive deficits during times of economic success is a good thing and will have no repercussions […]” But isn’t your dream lover Donald Trump doing just that? Look at the latest figures! Apparently his tax cuts aren’t paying for themselves! When do we get the 6% growth rates? Oh, and when will Mexico pay for the wall? :)

“[…] that a 3% interest rate is too high […]” Trump was raging at Fed chair Jay Powell for raising interest rates. Trump wants rates to go to zero! Selective amnesia on your part? :)

“[…] that the ills of the world are caused by all western countries and that all history of these countries must be erased.[…]” Have you checked out Trump’s hijinks in Iran lately? :(

“[…] that massive immigration of disparate cultures into homogeneous societies is a good thing.[…]” Oh, that’s right, I forgot you’re a white supremacist. There’s really no point in my arguing any further with a far-right nutjob like yourself! :(

#95 oh bouy on 01.03.20 at 11:44 am

@#92 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:56 am
#59 oh bouy on 01.02.20 at 11:26 pm
@#38 Sold Out on 01.02.20 at 7:28 pm
#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm
#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

————————————————————

Are churches and private schools included in this ^?

Sign me up too, in that case:)
_______________________________________

bingo!

lets start with getting rid of the catholic school board and rescinding the religious tax exemption.
___

I have signed both of you up!

I don’t give a flying pigs @ss if funding for the separate school board is yanked. Or even if they just fold the whole thing into the Public system. I don’t know anyone who would give a rip about this.

Nor do I care if the Religious tax exemption is stripped – provided it is stripped from all other charities of every kind as well.

Might as well kill it all at once so we don’t have to listen to folks bitch and complain till the end of time over who gets it and who doesn’t.

Plus our broke-a$$ government really needs all that double taxation right now too.

________________________________________

fantastic.
Religious folk have got a free pass for far to long.

#96 oh bouy on 01.03.20 at 11:46 am

@#84 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 9:59 am

________________________________________

I get that we are all just pontificating on here but your list is farcical. Quit playing the victim card, you’ll be happier.

#97 whiplash on 01.03.20 at 11:58 am

#35 Bob Dog

Considering that Australia is one of the hottest, driest, inhabited places on planet earth where bushfires/wildfires scorched 11,963,000 hectares between February 1851 to February 1962″only”. Forget Greta, Al Gores dad wasn’t even born yet and that country was burning up!

#98 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 12:06 pm

#84 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 9:59 am
I used to say that I was fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
Not any more. the concept of socially liberal has moved so far left that I will never identify this way again.
___

I’m about the same – but I look at the situation with Canadian politics thru a condensed logical deduction.

1. Old School Conservatism is toast in Canada

2. I don’t want to become emotionally/Mentally compromised via the loopy goings on out there like some folks do.

3. Undermining the entire thing requires only that you do not support the government financially, meaning avoid paying taxes of all kinds, at all levels, and at every opportunity (easy to do). Let the lunatics fund their own parade.

From there on in, I can laugh watching the PC/SJW activist types as they inevitably start stomping on each others, and even their own toes. I assure you, it’s grade “A” entertainment!

1. Watching Transgender activists burying the Feminists via social media and MSM shaming (tactics that were invented by feminists).

2. Watching the utter destruction of Women’s sports starting to take shape.

3. Watching 3rd wave feminists fighting with the 2nd wave feminists over basically everything.

4. Watching the inevitable reduction and slow elimination of ‘Women’s spaces”.

5. Watching SJW/Feminists types slowly coming to realize that there are loads of Women who actually don’t have a choice when it comes to abortion. The choice to abort in the last decade or so has been made increasingly by Men (and family), and the answer has been a resounding YES. These same decisions have been championed by Media and activists.

6. Watching with interest which direction young Men of the West are taking from here. Eventually they will come to realize that Men have never been so free from the expectations of society (especially of other Men), never so free of responsibility, never so able to escape the endless work their fore-bearers had no choice but to do , and never so easily (and “cheaply”) able to access Women the world over. Their day of enlightenment is coming, and in classic and ironic form: thanks mainly to the work done to increase the fortunes of Women.

7. Watching the never ending repetition of Lefty PC efforts at using the violence of State policy, regulation, and Law to effect change as they see fit – and getting exactly the opposite as what was desired.

They say laughter is the best medicine AB, so I urge you to turn on the CBC and up your dosage – and then make a plan to let these goofballs fund their own $hit$how. Your money has much better things to do.

#99 Sail away on 01.03.20 at 12:13 pm

Well, my Boom-Bust portfolio is up 15% for December alone.

Some people would call that…. a nice annual salary.

All verifiable, too, unlike Smoking Man’s claims. At least 20 blogdogs requested and were sent the spreadsheet via email after Ponzie triggered me by questioning truthfulness… Offer’s over, by the way.

I actually become faster, fitter, smarter and handsomer when making big $. Smug and arrogant? No, never.

#100 Ronaldo on 01.03.20 at 12:21 pm

#55 Diversified in Oakville on 01.02.20 at 10:36 pm
Hey #32 Ronaldo,
17.87% 75/25 diversified portfolio gain in 2019.
Just saying. That was net of fee’s too.
—————————————————————–
Excellent. Just think what it would be if we were to include the increase in value of our homes as part of the portfolio. Would make our investment portfolio returns look pale.

#101 Sail away on 01.03.20 at 12:34 pm

#90 Gravy Train on 01.03.20 at 10:36 am
#51 Sail Away on 01.02.20 at 10:11 pm

“[…] I’ll help you out with this, Strap: if your portfolio was down 2% in 2018, and up 17% in 2019, you would be fairly close to a gain of 15% over 2 years.[…]”

———————————

But your mean return is just 7.079%—assuming annual compounding. N’est-ce pas? :)

———————————

Yes, correct, yielding a total gain of 14.66%. That’s fairly close to 15% for some people.

Sorry for the disturbance. You can get back to counting beans now…

#102 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 12:36 pm

#95 oh bouy on 01.03.20 at 11:44 am
@#92 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:56 am
#59 oh bouy on 01.02.20 at 11:26 pm
@#38 Sold Out on 01.02.20 at 7:28 pm
#29 IHCTD9 on 01.02.20 at 6:17 pm
#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.02.20 at 5:33 pm

“We don’t care what you do, we don’t care about your sexual orientation, gender, or race, as long as you don’t harm anyone else but we ain’t funding it”.

——-

Seconded!

————————————————————

Are churches and private schools included in this ^?

Sign me up too, in that case:)
_______________________________________

bingo!

lets start with getting rid of the catholic school board and rescinding the religious tax exemption.
___

I have signed both of you up!

I don’t give a flying pigs @ss if funding for the separate school board is yanked. Or even if they just fold the whole thing into the Public system. I don’t know anyone who would give a rip about this.

Nor do I care if the Religious tax exemption is stripped – provided it is stripped from all other charities of every kind as well.

Might as well kill it all at once so we don’t have to listen to folks bitch and complain till the end of time over who gets it and who doesn’t.

Plus our broke-a$$ government really needs all that double taxation right now too.

________________________________________

fantastic.
Religious folk have got a free pass for far to long.
_____

You got it bro, Catholics have to start paying their own way too – just like the Protestants, Jews, Muslims, Sikhs, Hindu’s Buddhists, et. al. in Canada have being doing since the dawn of time.

Besides, this kind of helping people out work is best left to the government – the peoplekind really need to realize this soon.

#103 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 12:48 pm

#94 Gravy Train on 01.03.20 at 11:40 am

“[…] that massive immigration of disparate cultures into homogeneous societies is a good thing.[…]” Oh, that’s right, I forgot you’re a white supremacist. There’s really no point in my arguing any further with a far-right nutjob like yourself! :(

—————-
So Garth.

You Ok with this guy labeling people as white supremacists on your blog?

I mean we all know he is a massive idiot, without an original thought, but I’m thinking that this kind of crosses the line.

Or maybe that’s just the new progressivism that we all have to support and love.

People have alleged racism against others on this blog for years. Racist comments are routinely removed. Allegations of racism are not. – Garth

#104 Deplorable Dude on 01.03.20 at 12:51 pm

What was an Iranian general and his staff doing at the Baghdad airport?

#105 n1tro on 01.03.20 at 12:52 pm

#47 Ustabe on 01.02.20 at 8:48 pm

There are plenty of us who say it can be done. Leadership, policy, platform is all it takes.
————-
and you see all of that in the Liberal party?

If the LGBTQ makes up +/-4% of the population, and you ask why all the angst? I then have to ask, why all the fuss and special treatment? Policies should be made for everyone, not just the minority group that screams the most.

#106 crazyfox on 01.03.20 at 1:08 pm

https://www.foxnews.com/media/lindsey-graham-qassem-soleimani-iran-trump

Lindsey Graham said on Fox news this morning that if Iran retaliates, Trump should destroy all oil refining capacity (3:15 mark for time constrained readers) in Iran. So, here’s Iran’s oil production (check 25 yr):

https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/crude-oil-production

If Graham gets his wish, oil prices will stay high for a couple more years allowing the U.S. to continue its record oil production pace for a couple more years (and then it’s onto the next nation to bully, terrorize and make war with, to create an oil production void to make room to take more world oil production market share with higher prices to support growth).

So, here we have potential ways this worm can turn. Any Iranian retaliation could open the door to U.S. attacks on Iranian oil refineries. Since Trump has sworn fealty to Putin as early as the early mid 2000’s, we could see Iran’s natural gas facilities get destroyed as well. This would pop the price of both oil and gas world wide as Iran, in response to crashing oil revenues does what it can to boost natural gas exports forcing Qatar to do the same, has flooded the Asian market crashing natural gas prices. If the U.S. destroyed Iran’s natural gas production, Russia would cash in from high prices throughout Asia and Europe, with leverage on Asia and Europe much more dependent on Russian gas.

So, for reasons of global security in aid to Europe, Canada may need to get into LNG across the Atlantic as the prospects for an Iraqi/U.S. war just went way up.

For al the talk of electric cars and green energy, this world is still an oil driven economy. Whoever controls oil, controls the world. The U.S. empire knows it well and is making a major production run but the environmental damage this world has seen and continues to see from hydrocarbons and the transition to green tech in competition with O & G producing nations that will clearly make war to continue their hold on power…

#107 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 1:13 pm

#91 crazyfox on 01.03.20 at 10:52 am
#86 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 10:01 am

Oh, your right, it would be a lop sided affair 1 on 1. Iran doesn’t have much effective recourse other than terrorism (lots of choices there) but history paints a different picture as allies join in. Lets not forget, WW1 began with an assassination:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I
___

I hear ya, but let’s keep it real here. A lot of things have changed since then when it comes to military power. If China, Russia, and Iran join forces to attack the USA in an all out war – all the US would have to do is stay at home and wait. It’ll be a long wait because none of these countries can reach the USA. That goes for every other nation on the planet that may be foolhardy enough to join them too.

The fact is, outside of nuclear weapons that they can’t use, not a single nation can arrive in force over the skies or on the shores of the USA without being turned into a mixture of hamburger and scrap metal.

Worst case scenario:

1. Terror attack on US soil 10-20 US Citizens are killed.

2. US leaves Russia and China alone and attacks Iran. Every piece of critical civilian and defense infrastructure is destroyed along with a couple thousand deaths tops.

3. US contractors make Billions rebuilding the place over the following decade.

#108 TurnerNation on 01.03.20 at 1:30 pm

Make no mistake ” climate change” is all about inducing mental illness and communism.
They said it right here, the time for kindness is over. Time they smash that car collection? They could justify it. Attack the rich boomers which ruined the childhood? Seize their homes for the greater social good? It’s coming. Yes climate change can do ALL THAT.
Meanwhile our elites make plans for war making as we must ration. Seen this playbook before.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/climate-change-mental-health/

Halfway through the evening, attendees broke up into small groups to talk about their climate encounters. One woman talked about a family member’s expensive car collection. Another brought up his friend’s refusal to use travel mugs for coffee.

As more people in the groups shared their experiences, a lightbulb seemed to go off. People are attached to their taxing habits, which one man referred to as “the normalization of convenience.” At one point, a man stood up to point out that perhaps we are past the point of kindness, and the situation is too dire for friendly words.

#109 AB Boxster on 01.03.20 at 1:33 pm

I guess its one thing to label someone like Trump as a racist, based upon his stature and the hatred from the left.

Kind of different for individuals on your blog to do the same.

So it would be OK to refer to Gravy Train as a white hating, homophobic, pedophile in the blog using this logic. Of course no pedophillic comments or pictures to be allowed, but painting another blogger as a pedophile would be fair game?

Just trying to understand the rules, you know.

Evidence-based comments are allowed. Figure it out. – Garth

#110 LP on 01.03.20 at 1:44 pm

Meanwhile stocks markets advanced between 20% and 30%. A boring, low-vol balanced portfolio grew 15.2%.

————————————————————————-

Because markets tanked at the end of December 2018.

What are these figures over two years?

That’s a total return for 2019. Too bad you missed it. – Garth

—————————————————————–
To get the 2019 returns, one would have to “time the market”, which you often criticise. You can’t have it both ways, Garth.

Maybe I should use crayon this time: Invest when you have money. Stay invested. Ignore the noise (and the morons). Spend it when you need it. – Garth

#111 NoName on 01.03.20 at 1:50 pm

@ crzyfox

Iran production is is down due to in some part to sanctions and mainly to cost, noone wants to invest over there they are left to their own devices that is a reason why chart looks like that way. And on a side note every decomissioned f14 is reliving faith of avro because moolah and their policyes. Now iam wondering how many genders is in irn…

https://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

and my understanding that that dude was, better read this from few yrs back.

https://nypost.com/2014/06/20/how-irans-spy-chief-paid-for-the-benghazi-attack/

and short video from un, where is reminded that dude was sanctioned to leave irn…

https://twitter.com/standamericanow/status/1213126181630951424

#112 IHCTD9 on 01.03.20 at 1:55 pm

The CBC is trying to hint us at something…

https://www.cbc.ca/life/wellness/surviving-in-the-wild-how-to-build-a-long-log-fire-for-warmth-1.4636926

#113 Ustabe on 01.03.20 at 2:08 pm

#105 n1tro on 01.03.20 at 12:52 pm

#47 Ustabe on 01.02.20 at 8:48 pm

There are plenty of us who say it can be done. Leadership, policy, platform is all it takes.
————-
and you see all of that in the Liberal party?

If the LGBTQ makes up +/-4% of the population, and you ask why all the angst? I then have to ask, why all the fuss and special treatment? Policies should be made for everyone, not just the minority group that screams the most

WHOOSH

#114 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 01.03.20 at 2:38 pm

Canadians would rather buy a house than eat.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.20 at 3:11 pm

@#104 Deplorable Dude
“What was an Iranian general and his staff doing at the Baghdad airport?”

++++

Exactly.

And why arent the MSM asking the same question.

#116 Re-Cowtown on 01.03.20 at 3:23 pm

#104 Deplorable Dude on 01.03.20 at 12:51 pm
What was an Iranian general and his staff doing at the Baghdad airport?
______

Booking two tickets to Paradise. They just didn’t realize the first stop was Hell.