The stampede

The common wisdom on The Street is Trump’s a cinch in November. Confidence that the growth-at-all-costs president will win in the coming election is part of the reason investors think markets will melt up in the next few months.

After all, it’s the economy, stupid. Unemployment’s at a 50-year low. Corps are making big bucks. Stocks at record levels. Consumer confidence and spending are strong. Residential real estate is stable. Wages are up. The trade war with China is easing. Inflation’s running cool. Interest rates have come down again.

So, how could Trump lose? Even if he is a paleo?

But wait. What’s the thundering sound? Hey, it’s a stampede of Millennials!

Some people think moisters and women will punt the president, causing him to lose by up to ten million votes. As a research paper called ‘The Ok Boomer Decade’ spelled out this week there’s already evidence a sweeping move to the left is taking place among the under-40 crowd. The numbers are actually stunning. In the 2018 mid-term elections 68% of 18-to-24 year olds voted Democratic. The result was almost identical for those aged 25 to 29, and stayed at 59% among the 30-to-39 cohort. Republicans only regained the edge among voters over 50. Boomers.

The pendulum is shifting, we’re told. This new decade will see a relentless move left as the largest demographic (Millennials) turns desires and entitlement into votes. Surveys show people under 30 don’t fear socialism, want bigger government, increased social program spending and are willing to live with seriously higher taxes to get it. Taxes on others, of course. Like the Boomers, the rich, homeowners and corporations. It’s why Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have been embraced. This is what AOC is all about. And MMT – modern monetary theory.

So the 2020s may bring war on inequality. The 99% chasing the 1%, using government to level the field. It’s already emerging in Canada, as you know. BC’s socialist government and its tax war on real estate is a good example. Trudeau’s slashing of TFSA contributions, the attack on small business financing and the new uber-tax bracket hitting incomes over $200,000 also fit the pattern.

Those drifting left, doubting capitalism, feeling shut out of the housing market, hating the gig economy and struggling to form families don’t care much about federal government deficits or balanced budgets. No wonder poor Andrew Scheer’s message went fallow. In the world of MMT believers, the government tells the central bank to print enough money to achieve social justice – universal health care and education, a debt jubilee, state-built affordable housing and a guaranteed annual income. Since the debt is owed to the people, it’s not bad. Why repay it?

Now layer Greta on top of inequality, social justice and elastic monetary policy, and the shift left continues. People under 30 believe overwhelmingly in the reality of climate change and are happy to use the term ‘emergency’ to describe it. More justification for a tax attack on those lifestyles which they feel contributed to the crisis. Carbon-emitting cars and planes, over-sized houses, excessive consumption and the hoarding of assets. Don’t be surprised in the decade ahead to see capital gains taxes on Canadian real estate, a top tax bracket touching 60%, a wealth or inheritance tax and carbon taxes far above current levels. Poor Alberta.

Now, none of this is overnight stuff. Trump may well snuff the lefty Dems in eleven months. The Canadian Cons may wisely go centrist and topple Trudeau. Boomers are not a washed-up asset class yet.

But we’re not blind, either. A year ago MMT was just a worn, discredited, far-out economic theory espoused by people who keep ferns. Now it’s at the heart of a US presidential race. Greta is a cult hero to millions. Every incident of extreme weather fuels a movement. The political polarization of the developed world is coming down to divisions of age, class, even gender. In democracies, when a majority feels put down, delayed, disenfranchised or pissed, radical things can happen. There are now more Mills than Boomers, an imbalance which grows daily.

So if Trump fails in November, this will be why. If he wins, it could be a generation’s last huzzah. His kind will be gone.

What to do in terms of your own life? You assets?

Tune in next year. I’m taking tomorrow off to work on the bunker.

 

171 comments ↓

#1 ww1 on 12.30.19 at 4:42 pm

2020 – gonna be a great show however it works out. I’m making popcorn and settling in for the journey.

#2 C.W. on 12.30.19 at 4:46 pm

Happy New Year! Garth and fellows.

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 12.30.19 at 4:47 pm

Happy 2020 everybody
Hopefully us reptilian brains with monkey hormones species will have 20/20 vision also

#4 MF on 12.30.19 at 4:49 pm

The capital gains exemption needs to go. So too, does the CMHC.

They’ve created a monster, and are anachronistic.

From what I have read and seen the mills down south are way more left than us up here (those on the right are more right too). The country is very divided and something will have to give. The US after Trump is pretty scary.

Us? Like Garth mentioned, the Cons need to go centrist. When this happens expect a decade of conservative leadership.

MF

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 12.30.19 at 4:49 pm

Garth, can you predict when and if the real estate collapse will occur in the GTA? 2020?

#6 Christopher Stubbs on 12.30.19 at 4:52 pm

Wishing you and Dorothy all the best for 2020 Garth.

Thank you for all that you have done in 2019.

#7 Brian Fox on 12.30.19 at 4:52 pm

Tune in next year. I’m taking tomorrow off to work on the bunker.

Garth,

I’m thinking your stone building in Lunenburg would work wonderfully as a bunker

Cheers

#8 FreeBird on 12.30.19 at 4:54 pm

Voter purging and gerrymandering are always contentious issues:

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/788597832/judge-orders-massive-purge-of-wisconsin-voter-rolls

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/17/georgia-purged-voters-its-rolls-its-second-state-make-cuts-less-than-week/%3foutputType=amp

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1106951

#9 TurnerNation on 12.30.19 at 4:56 pm

2020-2021 we will face food shortages and rationing. Due to the government/UN’s actions. Remember from history that famines are always man-made. I will give specific examples. After all what else would our tax farm owners do but control our breeding and feeding? (Fertility rates at record lows, cancer at record highs but that is for another day)

(Take everything our elites say and flip it. Agenda 2021 “Food Security?” That’s food INSecurity to you bud.)

1. Google search: US Farmers Right to Repair.
Farmers are having their means of production tightly controlled. No longer are they allowed to repair or fix their own farm machinery. Why: They sign a software
agreement and all replacement parts are controlled via software code or chips. You cannot bolt on any part; it will not work.
It must be a new part from the dealer. What if said part is unavailable, obsolete, or you violated the software agreement, or you cannot afford it? Too bad, your
machines will idle, your crop will rot.

2. EU is actively seeing to shut down farming, due to (of course) emissions and “Climate change”.
Google search for EU farmers protests. Yes climate change can do all that. They are converging on cites with their farm machines in protest. Hope those do not break down, see point #1.
What kind of anti-human government would seek to shut down our means of food production? Oh the same people which leveled Syria without fear. This is happening, there is a plan and a timeline. Our leaders have all been replaced to this agenda.

3. Don’t expect help from the UN run media. All of these articles are a soft sell, Predictive Programming to soften us up. Nothing us left to chance in war – of our
minds. If you think it all is accidental, go for it.
-GLobe and mail publishing “articles” soft selling us that we must get used to Rationing, that we are in a war (damn straight) all due to Climate Change.
– Macleans magazine ‘opinion’ piece actively calling for an end to capitalism also due to climate change. Sure mail me your mag for free.
– Toronto Life main cover story on eating bugs, that we must do this to ‘save the planet’ yep climate change again.

This is WW3 and we are the enemy you see.
For a few years now I’ve predicted that perfectly good foodstuffs will rot as armed government men keep us away. Maybe the WHO declares global pandemic, maybe the correct Carbon Permit was not obtained.
I welcome to be proved wrong, but it is all coming. We see reports of families in AB forced into the street out of perfectly good Condos, as insurance prices were
jacked up. What did the government do to save its own people? Did they give those locals the same housing benefits as refugees? Not on your life. Nothing.

#10 Treasure Island CEO - 71,944,967.88 Offshore on 12.30.19 at 5:07 pm

BoC needs to cut asap.

Thank god we don’t have Obama telling us to stay clear of the RTS index that was supposed to tank, yet did quite the opposite. 40% up just this year alone.

#11 Calgary, Canada's Detroit. on 12.30.19 at 5:12 pm

https://www.660citynews.com/2019/12/29/man-swinging-hatchet-shuts-down-part-of-deerfoot-trail/

Is Axe throwing new this year at Calgary Stampede?

https://calgaryherald.com/news/crime/2-people-injured-after-shooting-in-northeast-calgary/wcm/9a44735f-8f78-477d-aa53-78f125426be7

#12 Guy in Calgary on 12.30.19 at 5:13 pm

As a now 31 year old millenial, i can say anecdotally that the problem with modern politics is that the larger parties are veering either too far right/left. My friends feel the same way. I mean if I lived in the US i wold probably vote for Trump simply because the dems are now too far gone. Trump is different but you cannot deny the good he has done for the US. He is not perfect but economic numbers do not lie.

The conservative party here is in shambles and the only individuals anyone knows now are Jason Kenney and Doug Ford who are not exactly the best spokespeople for the party and only act (along with JT) to further divide the country.

Is there no option for someone who is fiscally responsible but also recognizes the need for strong social programs? Those two concepts can coexist. Plenty of things that can be cut before nurses and teachers. It would be nice to see more voting in favor of policy instead of slogans. OH WELL.

#13 Flop... on 12.30.19 at 5:16 pm

Mrs Flop and I have been spoiled here this week with southern hospitality.

Walked through some of the neighbourhoods, saw some slap-em-up-specials, and some really nice sandstone mansions built to last centuries.

Forbes states that the median house price here is four times median household income.

People calling me Sir is free…

M45TX

Corpus Christi, TX

Population: 452,900.

Major Industries: Tourism, Energy, Defense.

Gross Metro Product: $27.5 B.

Median Household Income: $53,526.

Median Home Price: $197,000.

Unemployment: 4.5%

Job Growth (2018): 0.3%

Cost of Living: 3% below nat’l avg.

#14 Lee on 12.30.19 at 5:18 pm

It’s time to start charging a fee for this blog in 2020. We’ve been free-loading too long.

#15 Tommyboy on 12.30.19 at 5:19 pm

Don’t forget Garth that today’s millenial liberals are tomorrow’s conservatives. I’m reminded of the quote ‘If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.’.. don’t count on all the sour youngsters staying that way. As they proceed through life, they’ll drift right and the next generation will take their place praising socialist ideas.

#16 The Opposition on 12.30.19 at 5:25 pm

Pierre Poilievre, the Opposition finance critic, spent much of December 2019 talking about a “made-in-Canada” recession, even though almost no professional forecaster had predicted one.

#17 Alberta Ed on 12.30.19 at 5:26 pm

Don’t forget the Scotch. And the shotgun. Not necessarily in that order.

#18 Disrupter on 12.30.19 at 5:28 pm

Trump is a disrupter, a needed disrupter. The only people that are the last of the line are the globalist clowns that sold out the middle class. If the cons are smart they will find a disrupter of their own. Another Joe Clark or Robert Stanfield is the last thing we need. Better yet copy the block and run a western bloc. But not with the intent of forming government, but acting in a way that is in Western Canadian interests.

#19 Danger Dan on 12.30.19 at 5:31 pm

I really don’t agree with the growing leftist sentiment but at the coalface it has become impossible to ignore very obvious signs that runamok financialization and central bank ZIRPaganza have distorted the economy beyond all reason.

With every passing year it feels like we’re drifting further away from functional capitalist democracies and more towards feudalist kleptocracies where most people are condemned to a life of humble serfdom toiling to maintain the illusion of wealth in cities that they can’t even afford to live in.

Capitalism was supposed to be kept in check for the benefit of everyone but instead it has been allowed to metastasize into a parasitic monster. Small wonder that the youth is desperate for change.

#20 Ustabe on 12.30.19 at 5:34 pm

10-4 Dinosaur.

#21 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 5:36 pm

#15 Tommyboy on 12.30.19 at 5:19 pm

Not quite. Liberal people don’t really become more conservative as they age.

What causes the effect you’re referring to is that older people are born in generations that have more conservative views than the newer generations.

#22 the Jaguar on 12.30.19 at 5:38 pm

Who knew there was a bunker beneath the floorboards of the old BMO branch in Lunenburg? It does sort of resemble truth given what we know about ‘banker mentality’. I watched an old gem from the Frontline series (2009) called ‘Inside the Meltdown’ over the holidays. All about the financial crisis of 2008 with terrific insights into just how serious the situation was for the world, but also so very timely given the current ‘Repo Market’ concerns, asset bubbles, and other everyday swindles that go on around us today whether they involve high finance, climate change, or political shenanigans, etc.
The only land mine that could blow up on Trump’s re-election in 2020 would be the economy ( Repo Market?)
None of the people running on the Democratic ticket are viable alternatives. And their dirty tricks to effect a coup d’etat and eject the President is going to backfire on a grand scale. Their fingerprints are everywhere and even the most tuned out american will know they have been lied to and tricked.
As for the young & idealistic who will inherit the earth and all that goes with it like Greta & Co., they may wish to fasten their seat belts. Global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2018 amounted to 99.3 million barrels per day and is projected to increase to 101.6 million barrels per day in 2020. When compared to the daily oil demand of 86.4 million barrels in 2010, the increasing demand trajectory is clear. ( I lifted this from the net). People can wail away till the cows come home, but they have yet to face the reality that there is currently no viable or affordable alternative energy alternative. And what’s flying your plane, heating your home, or used in the manufacture of so many products you take for granted in everday life is a finite resource….running out faster than you think. Try driving your Tesla on a road that wasn’t paved with oil bitumen product. As is the case every year (Christmas season), I am stunned by the consumerism that is so reliant on this resource by people “who dare” to bite or lash out at the hand that affords them their access to that same consumerism. Sorry to steal your line, Greta, but from my side of the divide I am equally offended.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm

@#15 Tommyboy
“….today’s millenial liberals are tomorrow’s conservatives. …”
++++

Yep.
Today’s “Taxing the crap out of everything” will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.

Cant say we didn’t warn them about all the mistakes we have made…. with “Ok Boomer” ringing in our ears…
They’ve got it all figured out…
Give it 30 years.
Full circle with the “Greta’s” of the world screeching at them for buying the latest “planet killing iphone” instead of a phone /brain implant .

Greedy Hu-mans……

#24 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 6:01 pm

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm
“Today’s Taxing the crap out of everything will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.”

Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

#25 greyhound on 12.30.19 at 6:03 pm

What a cogent explanation of where we are — bravo. MMT may have just a wee effect on the purchasing power of the currency.
If the pendulum has swung too far towards capitalism, now it may swing too far into socialism. In the event of a recession, things could get interesting; maybe it’s a good time to sell the Bentley and get a Toyota…

#26 Linda on 12.30.19 at 6:05 pm

‘What goes around, comes around’. Also known as ‘Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it’. Here’s the problem with implementing all those wealth taxes: eventually, if you succeed, you too will be taxed to the max.

#27 Apocalypse2020 on 12.30.19 at 6:05 pm

“Tune in next year. I’m taking tomorrow off to work on the bunker.”

**This will also be bigger than just about Trump.

Global catastrophe is coming. Details soon.

PREPARE

#28 Mike on 12.30.19 at 6:19 pm

DELETED

#29 I'm Alright Jack on 12.30.19 at 6:20 pm

Everyone (almost) leans left in their younger years. Oh, I remember those days fondly; the idealism, the pro-union/ anti-right demonstrations, the not paying taxes because we really had nothing. The black and white thinking.

But sadly, everyone has to grow up and some day the idealistic millennials will find themselves with two kids and mortgage payments and be ranting at government to lower taxes just so they can survive. Screw everyone else – we need to get ahead.

And then everything turns a nice shade of grey.

Happy New Years to you Garth, Dorothy and Bandit, and fellow blog dogs (even though I’m really a cat person).

#30 S.Bby on 12.30.19 at 6:23 pm

“The Canadian Cons may wisely go centrist and topple Trudeau.”

Even more centrist than they are now? I can’t really tell them apart any more.

#31 OK, Doomer on 12.30.19 at 6:26 pm

Thinking that Mills all think alike and will vote as a bloc is silly. My kids laugh at the suggestion that they’re all socialists. Amongst their peers the pendulum, they tell me, is swinging alright; from the left to the right.

Greta? They see through her like a three-year old Tee shirt from Old Navy.

One of my kids (Engineering school) chuckled at the “Climate Walkout” . She saw the irony in all of the engineering, geology, geochem and science kids giving a yawn to the walk out and staying in class while the Arts, SJW and Poli-Sci kids ditched class and were off to save the world. As she said ” All the kids who understand science ignored the protests. Only the kids who don’t take any science classes went”.

I’ve got a lot more faith in the Mills than most people. All they need to do is be taxed and lied to by the Elites a bit more and they’ll smarten up nicely!

#32 crazyfox on 12.30.19 at 6:40 pm

I am, like so minded with our gracious host, a creamy melt up for a few more months but, I mean, we’re supposed to sell high at some point right? The market is in a bubble without question already so… its high. An election year, but high. Nothing ascends forever.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

31x earnings ain’t cheap either no matter what we hear. I mean, I look at this chart and all I see is risk. We know how it got there, it came through cheap credit, a long string of more good news than bad coupled with growth and excessive borrowed public dollars but at some point it will change. Investors shouldn’t expect the fed to have much influence in bad times as rates should have gone up to negate risk but haven’t.

Instead, the fed has been used like a slot machine, systemic risk be damned meaning if the U.S. faces a major recession (can’t see it for a few years yet, major correction sooner yes, major recession no), don’t expect rising coupons from falling bond yields to bail us out! We are almost out of runway to zero. A major recession with the fed rate as is won’t be short or pretty and the U.S. fiscal picture is already worrisome. The U.S. added nearly 40% fed debt to GDP over 10 years. 40%! Can they continue on with this pace for another 10 years or handle another shock like a GFC II and still maintain a strong dollar? Good God, no and what follows is disruption and pain.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

I see a number of serious risks that could cause a major GFC. I don’t see them hitting until at least 2023, but here they are:

– U.S. debt to GDP continuing to spiral beyond government’s ability to maintain public debt at higher, more normalized rates, sometime in 2024 and beyond I should think.
– War. The U.S. has added 7 mil bpd of new oil production in the last 8 years. That’s a lot! How did the U.S. take this kind of market share from global production (100 mil bpd) without crashing oil prices? Demand for one. Iran oil embargoes for another. Who’s next to make room for more U.S. oil production growth? They’ve already tapped Venezuela (2.2 mil in 2017 down to 750,000)… like who?

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/oil-producing-countries/

The U.S. is on their way to 20 million bpd of production but how do they do it with low oil prices? 2021 is likely the year of peak oil consumption as EV’s hit the road in force and take a bite of market share in 2022. Can’t be done unless they bully oil producing nations into producing less like they have with Iran and Venezuela. The key question is, who’s next? Canada? Another OPEC nation? Something from South America? And will it lead to war as the pie shrinks?

– Damage from climate change. Say what we will about what is or isn’t happening, storms are becoming more intense, global temps are rising and wild fires are becoming more frequent and sustained. My own prediction of an ice free Arctic ocean by Sept of 2021 stands. If I’m right, a new climate state will follow, filled with accelerated warmth in the northern hemisphere coupled with much longer melt seasons and shorter freeze ups as heat leaves a warming Arctic ocean. Jet streams will become slower, perhaps dramatically so and heat waves and heavy rainfalls will normalize in the Arctic with each passing year as atmospheric temps over the Arctic steadily rise.

We can start counting on major environmental damage by 2025 and worsening as the years roll on, perhaps witnessing a big dose as early as 2023. The worst aspect of the 20’s will be forest fires not just in a province like BC but everywhere in the northern hemisphere. 2019 Siberia was a small sample of what is to come.

There will be few deniers by the 2030’s if it goes down the way I think it will. The early 20’s will be marked by shock. The end of the 20’s will be marked by loss and depression. The 30’s will be marked by shortages and rampant inflation of consumer goods coupled with asset deflation as depression turns to fear and lament as climate continues to warm. Currencies will collapse… resource wars will break out, we will see the best and worst in ourselves as everyone will be put to the test. The 40’s will be marked by the end of days and civilization collapse, a near wipeout of human populations. Starvation, disease and murder will be the norm. Sorry millennials. You and your children are born into a dying planet so, sucks to be you. (see the MMT logic everyone? not so crazy after all)

But on a positive note, no major drama until at least 2023! :) Let those market bubbles cook! For a time, anyway.

Everything from bond market meltdowns to runaway inflation caused by currency collapses, war, pestilence, disease, shortage, continued environmental degradation, sudden population loss, I don’t see anything major hitting until at least 2023 so relax. But then… afterwards… well…

The message in this is, enjoy the next few years ’cause they will be the last normal years of our lives. Enjoy what you all can and Crazyfox means it, I wish you all good cheer and happy new year one and all!!

#33 Victoria on 12.30.19 at 6:44 pm

I remember when I was in my early 20s – 80s I was a real lefty/socialist. Even looked the part. Then I started making money. I was wondering where all my taxes were going. By the time I was 30 I was very middle. Once these kids get out in the real world they will start changing their tune. If and when flights double or triple in price and the point system is abolished (as some groups want) and they can’t go on their experience/memory/iPhone photo adventure then sh*t will really hit the fan.

#34 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.30.19 at 6:49 pm

The “funny” part about of all this is that the Millennials and their brainwashed counterparts the Zoomers are the ones who are going to be paying for all of their stupid. Us Boomers will all be dead.

Oh, and by paying I mean monetarily AND with their personal freedoms and Lifestyle. So feel free youngins, vote for more free money, MMT, and the defeat(s) of capitalism and climate change.

Hope you know how to hunt and subsistence farm. There will be no skinny jeans, lattes, and cell phones if you continue.

But you do you.

#35 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.30.19 at 7:03 pm

Schools need to do a better job of teaching history. Particularly about the estimated 100 million people who died because of socialism in countries like China, the former USSR, and Cambodia.

Since I don’t expect the above to happen Alberta should calmly seek to free itself from Ottawa’s oppression.

#36 Tommyboy on 12.30.19 at 7:05 pm

#24 Sunshowers

Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

——–

Median real wages comparing a 25 year old in the 70s to a 25 y/o today haven’t moved, but a 40 year old’s median salary is always higher than a 25 year old’s. You just need to put in your time. Entitlement at its best – I want it all now! You’ll turn into your parents soon enough – just put in the time, work up the ranks, and then you too can complain of being taxed 53 cents on every extra dollars you make while stay at home moms are taking in tax free 5-figure childcare ‘benefits’ using your tax dollars.

#37 Long-Time Lurker on 12.30.19 at 7:05 pm

Take your Christmas bonus now. The stock markets look to be reversing. That came faster than I thought it would.

>Hey, Smokey. Wattpad for your novels.

‘We can give a lot of the power back to the fans’
By Jessica Murphy

BBC News, Toronto
30 December 2019

…Not only were new writers flocking to the platform, but fans were interacting with their favourite authors. Allen knew something had clicked – a storytelling community was born.

Users have profiles where they can publish works and create their own reading lists.

Launched in 2006, Wattpad now has more than 80 million readers, and four million active writers on the site each month….

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50383329

#38 Shawn Allen on 12.30.19 at 7:09 pm

Cost of Living by City

Flop said Corpus Christ Texas

Cost of Living: 3% below nat’l avg.

**********************************
What is the estimated cost of living in Toronto versus Edmonton versus Vancouver versus Perterborough?

Statistics Canada surely has the data since they give inflation by City and so they know the cost of their standard basket of consumer costs.

I have watched for this data for like 30 years and I never see it. Well, maybe I have not looked hard enough.

Come to Alberta. There are still some jobs. You only need one (or two per couple). And the cost of living is surely lower here?

Imagine a Federal government job in a low-cost small city versus Toronto. You get paid the same becauae that’s the way unions think. Way better off in the small place.

#39 unbalanced on 12.30.19 at 7:13 pm

Capital gains taxes on real estate. Can I write off my mortgage interest rate then and all the other up grades?

#40 Shawn Allen on 12.30.19 at 7:14 pm

Debt Repayment to tank economy?

CIBC said the big priority for Canadians in 2020 is to reduce debt. Oh dear that could tank consumer spending and cause a recession?

But wait. In other breaking news most adults plan to also lose weight in 2020. Better not invest in restaurant stocks especially fast food and Pizza?

Right. The chance of the average Canadian having less debt at the end of 2020 versus the start is the same as their average weight going down. Zero.

#41 Sold Out on 12.30.19 at 7:20 pm

The Libs will fudge the total GDP numbers by increasing PR/NPR immigration, while per capita GDP, and everyone’s standard of living, goes down the pooper. Ditto for keeping the RE gasbag aloft, indefinitely.

Trump will bully the Fed into cutting rates; if that doesn’t work, look out. Americans won’t vote out a president during a war, even an impeached one.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 7:21 pm

@#24 Drip Dry
“Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”
++++

I have no idea, but my income has doubled in the last 5 years……through hard work and years of experience.

Amazing thing experience…..seems it takes time to gain it….
Perhaps less blaming of others and more self criticism?

#43 Renny Thomas on 12.30.19 at 7:31 pm

A good famine is needed every once and awhile so the real world can be regained again instead of fantasy and theories that never work like socialism, free stuff mentality just drags everyone down to the pits of dispair and poverty. It needs to be rooted out as history has been shown time and time again.

#44 Yanniel on 12.30.19 at 7:32 pm

I was 8 years old when I experienced hyper-inflation (Cuba in the 90s). It lasted a few years before getting under relative control. Misery was everywhere. I remember vividly the time even though I was a kid.

Some think MMT could trigger hyper-inflation. I started investigating how I could protect my investments in such environment.

Here is a summary of the asset classes I have found so far that could help in that kind of environment:

TIPS (though in real terms they are pitiful)
Commodities (Being real assets)
Gold (a commodity as well. See. stagflation of the 70ths)
REITS (though they have a fair amount of correlation with the stock market)
EM bonds spreads and to a lesser extent EM equities given that these economies are in general commodity dependent (not all)

I came across a podcast by Meb Faber and Chris Brightman where two assets classes were mentioned in addition to the above. Both were completely out of my radar.

High Yield Bonds (debt is issued in fixed terms but top line sales increases)
Bank Loans (given their floating rate)

If you have more suggestions please share.

PS: I’ve been thinking that a super inflationary environment could be a darling for people with fat mortgages. On one side they own a real asset that should preserve the value and on the other hand their debt is being depressed in real terms.

#45 Shawn Allen on 12.30.19 at 7:35 pm

GDP per capita?

#41 Sold Out on 12.30.19 at 7:20 pm
The Libs will fudge the total GDP numbers by increasing PR/NPR immigration, while per capita GDP, and everyone’s standard of living, goes down the pooper.

******************************
Excellent point. It is GDP per capita that really matters. Sad, that the growth or lack thereof in GDP per capita is so seldom reported.

P.S. Why does spell check on this site seem to think capita is not a word?

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 7:39 pm

@#27 Trumpocalypse2020
“Global catastrophe is coming. Details soon.
PREPARE”
++++

Thank god Trumpy2020 is back.
Reading his posts are like drinking a warm cup of coco on a hot day…. inappropriate yet appreciated in a weird saccharine sweet kinda way…..

#47 Sail Away on 12.30.19 at 7:45 pm

#40 Shawn Allen on 12.30.19 at 7:14 pm

CIBC said the big priority for Canadians in 2020 is to reduce debt.

But wait. In other breaking news most adults plan to also lose weight in 2020.

—————————————————-

Hahahaha

#48 Amok on 12.30.19 at 7:48 pm

Can one of the Trump supporters please explain to me why Trump’s massive deficit is ok, but Trudeau’s is a very bad and reprehensible thing?
Thanks.

#49 Nonplused on 12.30.19 at 7:55 pm

Wow, what a post, and what a year we face. So much to comment on.

I think Trump is a cinch for November, but he might be the last republican president ever. He will win in the electoral collage even if he doesn’t win the popular vote again. If you got someone to redo their surveys and weight them by electoral votes you’d find that the young folks driving pickups with balls in the flyover states will be voting Trump. The popular vote depends too much on California and New York to be indicative of how those in Montana will be represented in the electoral collage.

Trump simply has too much personality to be beat by any of the current crop of democratic contenders. He has so much personality it seems like he will not even face a challenge to his nomination (although that is not unusual for a second term president).

Trump has single-handedly saved the MSM (main stream media). It’s all Trump 24/7. And remember, it’s better to be spoken of poorly than not at all.

The trending phrase for 2020 is going to be “Joe Who?” Warren and Sanders are so far left that not even democrats in good standing with the party will vote for them if they make over $30,000 a year so “Joe Who” it is. He cannot beat Trump. Not even if bribing Ukraine becomes a national pastime.

—————

Trump, in my opinion, did not really come to “drain the swamp”. He is a television phenomena that was used once again to divert the common man’s attempt to understand his world away from what the moneyed are actually up to. So we’ve had 3 years going on 4 now of “Russia-gate” followed by “Ukraine-gate” on the news 24/7 meanwhile we (NATO, so us too) is on the brink of war with Iran and thus probably Russia. Nobody is talking about that or whether it would be a good idea. The US always wins all wars and the other side is always the bad guys. “My country, right or wrong” as Bush Jr. put it.

—————-

But on the impeachment thing this is about as silly as when Bill Clinton got impeached for lying to congress over an affair he had with an adult intern. Who wouldn’t lie at any and all times about an affair? You don’t kiss and tell. But Clinton didn’t want to bomb Yugoslavia which was his real crime, so he had to be threatened with removal from office. Of course he did go on to drop the bombs and served a second term. This is how things work in the real world. There is no logic to any of it, only self interest, and the people who pull the strings aren’t anymore magnanimous than a bum on the street. Probably a lot less so.

—————–

Probably the best and most influential game board ever devised was Monopoly. Remember, the goal is to bankrupt all your opponents and end up owning everything. Doesn’t sound very “social justice” does it? But remember the rich don’t care what tax rate they pay because YOU PAY THEIR TAXES IF THEY HAVE A MONOPOLY. You always did and you always will. Jeff Bozos can say he is a socialist all the way to the bank so long as he is taking market share from all the mom and pop operations. He doesn’t care if it takes 50% of his income or just 10% to fund his yacht, a 90% tax rate just means HE CHARGES YOU MORE! Sorry about the allcaps. People not understanding these things makes me angry, like Marvin the Martian. Jeff won’t care what the tax rate is so long as he can just pass it along to you, which is what he does. It’s what we all do. The difference is Jeff gets a monopoly, so he can pass along as much as he likes.

————–

Carbon taxes, as I have often argued, are just an increase in the HST under another name and requiring a new and larger bureaucracy. “Poor Alberta”? Carbon taxes are applied at the point of consumption so even if you live in Toronto and fuel your car with oil from Saudi Arabia you still pay. This is done of course because taxing at the source would mean that foreign oil was not taxed. That is not the point with a consumption tax like the HST and carbon taxes.

—————

How many more people do socialists have to kill and impoverish before the people finally realize that as nice as the song sounds you are being lead to the rocks? And no free housing does not just pop up because somebody printed free money. Somebody still has to build it. And if they won’t build it for profit, you have to point a gun at them. And use it.

—————

Greta doesn’t know anything and if we could search her financial records to the same extent they are trying to search Trump’s I am sure we would find Al Gore was behind the whole thing, and thought it up on his private jet or possibly his yacht. These people are corrupt and devious scam artists. And no, I am not saying global warming isn’t happening or that I can prove CO2 doesn’t contribute. But I don’t like being preached at by rich globe trotters with private planes and yachts.

#50 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.30.19 at 7:58 pm

#12 Guy in Calgary

The gentleman is correct.

Trump, for now, is the obvious choice for the 2020 presidential election year.

Why? Because the Democrats are rushing headlong into political oblivion. They have no viable candidate. And dreams that Hillary could make a comeback at a contested convention next summer is beyond nuts.

The Dems, led by Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and the other Dem House and Senate suspects have dangerously risked their re-election chances by being the “resistance” and the “impeachment” forces.

They have offered NOTHING of substance for the American voters to chew on and decide who is better: the Dems or the GOP.

Average Americans, as #12 so ably explained , need congressional support to meet national policy demands ranging from health care, to immigration, defense, trade and other important issues that also wash over into Canada.

And there there’s CHINA, and Iran and Russia.

As I’ve mentioned in this space before those three countries intend to form the next empire that it hopes will cold-cock the American empire and thus Canada’s and other Western powers’ democracies.

China may soon cut a trade deal with Trump but that won’t be the end of this giant imperial tug-of-war that keeps on keeping on.

US millennials are not generally stupid. Many have a different take on their country’s destiny, I think, especially those tens of thousands who serve in the US military.

They’ve been born into a culture that promotes American greatness and power projection, even though some may disagree with that meme.

Canadians millennials are not born into such a highly focussed society. Therefore many lack knowledge of our national purpose. What it is eludes me.

Right now we are told, as an example, that we must shut down our energy establishment because “oil and natural gas are bad” for our environment. The reasoning is that those resources are so yesterday.

No they’re not.

Check out online one of Canada’s major energy competitors, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company.

See the “Wasit” segment that describes how that Saudi Arabian company saves much of its oil resources for other uses by developing their natural gas instead for various important, and revenue-gathering, projects. Why can’t we do that?

Saudi Aramco recently launched its first IPO and made more than $20 billion US and is probably still making more. That IPO has probably begun to suck the life out of our industry.

Bottom line: more American millennials will vote and they are not all leftie loonoids. Millions belong to the GOP and then there is a huge cohort of Independents who are pouring water on the Dem’s impeachment travails which gives Trump more support.

The outcome of the next election is still too soon to call.

But 2020 will be a bitchin’ time regardless of millennial hopes, snow flakes’ complaints and identity political craziness.

I suggest that Canada’ lefties cool their jets because they are already way in over their ideological depths, and they don’t know how to swim.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 7:59 pm

@#48 Amok
“….why Trump’s massive deficit is ok, but Trudeau’s is a very bad…”
+

The short “Freudian” version?

People expect “The most Powerful Man in the World” to have a “massive deficit”.
“Sox”?….not so much.

#52 IHCTD9 on 12.30.19 at 8:05 pm

#38 Shawn Allen on 12.30.19 at 7:09 pm

Imagine a Federal government job in a low-cost small city versus Toronto. You get paid the same becauae that’s the way unions think. Way better off in the small place.
——

Yep – Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, Health Care, etc… add a working spouse doing whatever, making whatever (even min wage) to that – and you’ve got it made in the shade. 100k combined income and your life will be easy on the financial front.

Even without the government work, things can be sweet. I have a BIL who works at an auto plant, wife works at Timmies, there’s your 100K and then some. Paid for house mid 40’s, two paid for late model cars, DB pension. They’re getting over 4K/yr in Trudeau bucks on top too, because they have kids – even at that income level.

Another guy owns a business, wife works at the Library, way over 100k – they live in a sweet house on 30 acres, and he drives an 80k pickup.

More: if you’re handy and can make/save $ outside of your regular job, you’re golden too – even if you don’t have a 6 figure family income. Keeping costs down is huge, and under Trudeau; having a low income and a few kids means you’re getting 20-30 grand per year in returned tax dollars and handouts if you’re also dumping into RRSP’s and generally playing your cards smart on the tax front.

If you want a nice sfd, a couple of nice cars, and have a nice nest egg locked down go by 40 in the GTA, you’d probably need 4-5x the income – and that’ll put you squarely in Morneau’s cross hairs.

I expect there will be millions of single big city millennials arriving at 40 with no assets, no house, and no savings in the years to come. Marriage is an absolute requirement even just to scrape by (two good dual incomes), but looks like marriage in the metros is actually declining despite the financial death sentence firmly attached to being single.

Few singles or even D.I.N.K. couples in the GTA/GVRD make enough to compensate for the abysmal median incomes/RE ratio present in places like Toronto and Vancouver. Most will remain bleeding – paying near top rents in the country, and going nowhere fast.

#53 Stone on 12.30.19 at 8:24 pm

#24 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 6:01 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm
“Today’s Taxing the crap out of everything will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.”

Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

———

Maybe you’re just not smart enough to figure it out. Oh well…

How’s continuously whining about it working out for you?

#54 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.30.19 at 8:28 pm

ALBERTA’S CARBON TAX EMERGENCY!

Trudeau’s carbon tax will devastate Alberta at midnight December 31.

ALBERTA TOP UP YOU TANKS!

If you live outside of Alberta you are already paying it.

#55 Sail Away on 12.30.19 at 8:34 pm

In business news- Maxar, in my Boom-Bust portfolio is up 321% from its 52-week low. +16% today on news of repatriation of the Macdonald Dettwiler section. Time to sell, but after Jan 1.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 8:37 pm

@#54 Peter the French Seperatiste
“ALBERTA TOP UP YOU TANKS!”
******

“Is there a letter “R” Mr Sajdak ?”

#57 Sail Away on 12.30.19 at 8:44 pm

#24 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 6:01 pm

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm

“Today’s Taxing the crap out of everything will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.”

—————————————
Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

—————————————

There was a line in Robin Hood, where the Moor told Kevin Costner, “You whine like a mule.”

This comes to mind just about every time SunShowers appears.

Sunshowers, suggest you read any of IH’s posts, ever.

#58 Dogman01 on 12.30.19 at 9:04 pm

#19 Danger Dan on 12.30.19 at 5:31 pm
It has become impossible to ignore very obvious signs that runamok financialization and central bank ZIRPaganza have distorted the economy beyond all reason.
With every passing year it feels like we’re drifting further away from functional capitalist democracies and more towards feudalist kleptocracies where most people are condemned to a life of humble serfdom toiling to maintain the illusion of wealth in cities that they can’t even afford to live in.
Capitalism was supposed to be kept in check for the benefit of everyone but instead it has been allowed to metastasize into a parasitic monster. Small wonder that the youth is desperate for change.

You nailed the crux of it. This is why Climate Change has become simply a unifying virtue signaling banner for a social justice movement. (Occupy version 2)

A global elite have simply won the monopoly game in the West. They no longer need to exploit the masses (except as consumers) and now see a time they will not even need the masses.
https://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/

“It’s a club, and you’re not in it”

Good question: “what is the purpose of the economy?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

#59 IHCTD9 on 12.30.19 at 9:17 pm

#50 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.30.19 at 7:58 pm

And there there’s CHINA, and Iran and Russia.

As I’ve mentioned in this space before those three countries intend to form the next empire that it hopes will cold-cock the American empire and thus Canada’s and other Western powers’ democracies.

———-

Good post, but just a bit of context for the above:

To become an Empire, you need to be able to project power. This allows you to arrive at your enemy’s doorstep with enough firepower to affect their decision making without killing anyone first.

The USA has more than TWICE the ability in this arena than all other nations COMBINED, and then some.

China has a single reverse engineered Soviet era diesel powered carrier.

Compare that to the US’s new twin nuke Ford class carriers which have lasers and rail guns. These carriers will eventually be the answer to hypersonic weapons, as lasers will always be faster than projectile weapons – and when powered by a nuke, they will have unlimited ammo, and you could put 10 of them on a single ship…

Ford class carriers are the largest, most powerful carriers ever built. Second in line are the US Nimitz class carriers. The USA has 11 carriers total, and no other nation even comes close to the level these units are at. Only one other nation even has a nuclear powered carrier (France) and only one.

Russia and Iran have zero carriers.

Missiles and nukes is all they got, nukes can’t be deployed and all but the HS missiles can be defended against. Once the US has their rail guns and lasers dialled in, then all they’ll have is nukes – which they can’t use…

#60 Westcdn on 12.30.19 at 9:32 pm

It dawned on me that some of you might think I was seeking “A go fund me” over my sister’s and her daughter’s (she is a recent widow due to a traffic accident) misfortunes. I was just raging and wanted to show the injustice. We take care of our own. I and God (whatever it may be) are going to have a conversation. I don’t expect it will go well for me. Religion runs strong in my family – lizards be gone!

That would be Trump and a lot of Wall/Bay Street haves. Let’s just say I don’t need them but I would like to trade bunker designs… I will give it a go.

#61 Lorne on 12.30.19 at 9:33 pm

#35 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.30.19 at 7:03 pm
Schools need to do a better job of teaching history. Particularly about the estimated 100 million people who died because of socialism in countries like China, the former USSR, and Cambodia.
……..
You are right, Peter….schools need to do a better job……of teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…which is in effect in the countries you mention. Funny how the “right” cannot get their heads around the significant difference between the two.

#62 Re-Cowtown on 12.30.19 at 9:38 pm

#48 Amok on 12.30.19 at 7:48 pm
Can one of the Trump supporters please explain to me why Trump’s massive deficit is ok, but Trudeau’s is a very bad and reprehensible thing?
Thanks.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Trump is investing in America. Building factories, creating jobs, building for the future. Raising people out of poverty. Giving minorities chances they never had before and raising incomes of the lowest paid Americans at a fatsr rate than the CEO’s are getting. No different that borrowing money to start a business.

Trudeau is mortgaging the house to go yachting with Leonardo diCaprio and Greta, partying away on the national credit card, feasting on our seed corn and when we call him on it he says it’s all to further social justice, so we just don’t get it.

See the difference?

#63 oh bouy on 12.30.19 at 10:00 pm

happy new year fellow curmudgeons.
I can only hope the next decade is as fantastic as the last one was.

#64 Simon on 12.30.19 at 10:05 pm

Maybe read up on the Nordic Model and let us know what you think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_model

#65 MicroGX on 12.30.19 at 10:20 pm

Thanks Garth and team for the great commentary and advice in 2019.
Happy New Years!! looking forward to how 2020 unfolds…. I suspect no shortage of material.

#66 V l on 12.30.19 at 10:21 pm

Many, many Happy New Years to you Garth, Dorothy

#67 Lisa on 12.30.19 at 10:23 pm

In the new year, please consider standing up for the sex-based rights of women and girls in Canada!
https://www.cawsbar.ca

#68 Lolo on 12.30.19 at 10:24 pm

Many, many Happy New Years to you Garth, Dorothy, Bandit, Doug, Ryan, Blog Dogs. Including you, Dolce whenever you are.
Peace

#69 Jerry on 12.30.19 at 10:37 pm

Happy New Year Garth. And thank you.

#70 The Bruce on 12.30.19 at 10:38 pm

Garth thank you for your sagacity, wit, and consistent self-sacrifice in putting your thoughts to paper. We appreciate you.

Millennials have been indoctrinated into the leftist utopian vision. They will only realize their terrible mistake after it’s too late.

#71 WUL on 12.30.19 at 10:41 pm

#62 Re-Cowtown on 12.30.19 at 9:38 pm

Trump is investing in America. Building factories, creating jobs, building for the future. Raising people out of poverty. Giving minorities chances they never had before and raising incomes of the lowest paid Americans at a fatsr rate than the CEO’s are getting. No different that borrowing money to start a business.

?????

Thanks for the link free post. Makes it easier to swallow this hogswallop.

No he is not.

Stop saying this stuff that you make up.

#72 conan on 12.30.19 at 10:41 pm

Trump loses, badly. It will be a repeat of the Mid Terms, but this time, the Senate also takes a hit.
Texas goes Blue.
My oh my.

#73 Conscious on 12.30.19 at 10:42 pm

So you agree with Trump in bullying a child – like little Greta Thunberg – Time Magazine’s Person of the Year.

Very Sad.

#74 CEW9 on 12.30.19 at 10:43 pm

Crazyfox, I will just say that people have predicting the end of the world for a looong, long time. No doubt, it’s gonna end eventually, but not likely on your timeline.

Being too early is the same thing as being wrong. Here is a short shortlist (I’ll stick to scientific ones):

1798: Reverend Thomas Malthus predicts that population increases would doom the world to famine and disaster. (200 years later, no end in sight)

1910: Astronomer Camille Flammarion predicted humanity would be gassed to death by cyanogen gas from Haley’s comet, based on spectroscopic analysis of the comet’s tail.

1967: Cal Tech biology professor Peter Bonner wrote “All serious students of the plight of the underdeveloped nations agree that famine… is inevitable” in the prestigious journal Science. (Famine deaths have plummeted since then)

1970: Sen. Gaylord Nelson, D-Wisc. (the father of ‘Earth Day’) – cited the secretary of the Smithsonian, who believed “that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

1989: Noel Brown, Director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, predicted entire nations would be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Then there is Al Gore (in 2006 said that humanity had only 10 years left before the world would reach a point of no return); U.N. official Mostafa Tolba, 1989 executive director of the UN Environment Program (“By the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust”); and the list goes on and on.

The take away?

100% of people who predicted the end of the world have been wrong 100% of the time.

There are plenty of websites with lists of failed predictions. It’s actually pretty entertaining reading and though some seem ridiculous now, at the time they were the next big thing.

Live life, don’t worry too much about tomorrow.

#75 Robert Ash on 12.30.19 at 11:10 pm

Happy New Years to All and Good Luck for 2020.
Dogmans link to the Sir James Goldsmith, interview with Charlie Rose, is a real must watch for those folks, wondering how we got to the many problems, of today. Millenials, angry and frustrated with thier lack of Progress, Stagnant wages, Inablity to compete and form famiies, Angst and Envy for Boomers, Real Estate priced out of the Markets, by simple Demand, and Financial wealth of other Nations. A limited path to Jobs, and Entrepenureship… Watch Dogman’s short clip part one… But if you have a little spare time, I have included the entire Interview on the Link. Below..NAFTA, was good for Canada, and America, and generous to those in Mexico… albiet ask the GM workers in Oshawa if we moved a little too fast to Mexico… This can be reversed and is frankly in my opinion the Reason, Donald Trump is making sense, and will help his country if he is re elected… Very important for Canadians, and particularily Millenials, and The Canadian Media, to watch. If you have time to watch the whole interview, ask yourself … Goldsmith … why did we let Media Bias and even Charlie Roses, altruism, rule the day…Comparative Advantage is a great concept, but should have been released, with great caution, and Review… Time to take back our Futures, and not in a Destructive manner, but with a focused and intelligent plan, with Leaders with Business Accumen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s

#76 Keith on 12.30.19 at 11:10 pm

@ #48 Amok

Trump supporters ignore the ugly truth, as do Trudeau supporters and any other partisans. Tax cuts work when you cut spending to finance them. Since spending cuts are politically unpopular, this rarely happens, and has been replaced by the lie that tax cuts pay for themselves. Trump has not cut spending to finance his tax cuts, but few care about his giant deficit in the midst of other good news with employment. Too bad 44% of Americans don’t pay income tax.

Canada’s federal debt to GDP ratio is 31% and falling, in the U.S. it is close to 100% and rising. The U.S. GDP was goosed by over 4% the year the tax cuts were made, but growth has already fallen to 2.3 percent. The benefit of the tax cut is short term, the debt created will be long term. The painful trillion dollar deficit remains in place, with no real plan to return to balance.

Trudeau is investing in people, with benefits skewed to families in the middle income range. It pays off over decades with lower hospitalization and incarceration rates. The deficit is too high and persists, with no real plan to return to balance. This is terrible leadership. Trump’s tax cuts overwhelmingly benefitted corporations and the wealthy, and the U.S. will have a very painful time in the next recession with their deficit and debt situation.

Of course, most politicians response to fiscal matters most of the time is to kick the can down the road, whether they are Conservative, Liberal or NDP, or Democrat or Republican. It’s not their money.

#77 Dutchy on 12.30.19 at 11:16 pm

Hopefully the majority on this blog will be wrong again about the direction in which the North-American electorate will steer the ship.

Trump is not the brightest star on the firmament and neither was Scheer (or will be his replacement)

Have a great 2020 you all.

#78 Leichendiener on 12.30.19 at 11:25 pm

… and then there was that ‘youthquake’ in the recent British election.

HNY.

#79 P Sydney on 12.30.19 at 11:28 pm

So the 2020s may bring war on inequality. The 99% chasing the 1%, using government to level the field.
————————————————

Of course. How else do humans level or _unlevel_ the field if not with government laws and regulations?

#80 GRG on 12.30.19 at 11:36 pm

#61 Lorne on 12.30.19 at 9:33 pm
……..
You are right, Peter….schools need to do a better job……of teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…which is in effect in the countries you mention. Funny how the “right” cannot get their heads around the significant difference between the two.
********************************************

LOL. Lorne. Another shining example of what’s wrong with our public school system.

It was Union of Soviet SOCIALIST Republics.

#81 45north on 12.30.19 at 11:37 pm

Some people think moisters and women will punt the president, causing him to lose by up to ten million votes.

some people being the ones who thought Donald Trump would never win. “A research paper” supporting their position. Of course, there’s a research paper. They didn’t know what was happening then and they don’t know now.

#82 BS on 12.30.19 at 11:57 pm

61 Lorne on 12.30.19 at 9:33 pm

You are right, Peter….schools need to do a better job……of teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…

Socialism turns into communism. What starts as a democratic process turns into governing by force when the socialism doesn’t work. Communism is socialism by force which is the only way socialism survives. Venezuela is the latest example.

#83 k on 12.31.19 at 12:05 am

As usual….yes a perfunctory ….I know you like the word…sycophantic….good too ….You are right on as usual

#84 yvr_lurker on 12.31.19 at 12:10 am

#61
You are right, Peter….schools need to do a better job……of teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…which is in effect in the countries you mention. Funny how the “right” cannot get their heads around the significant difference between the two.
—————————-

Exactly my sentiment. Everytime progressive Gov’ts try to put in new measures to help with inequality (putting in spec and empty homes taxes in BC for example), they are called “socialists”. To right-wingers who espouse wild-west capitalism they view these measures as the precursor to having the population standing in line for turnips and cabbage with their weekly ration cards…. for those who believe this please give your head a shake please….

#85 Blessed_Canadian_Millenial on 12.31.19 at 12:13 am

#24 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 6:01 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm
“Today’s Taxing the crap out of everything will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.”

Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

——————

Your posts generally sound like you’re green with envy.

Here is some food for thought: people within the income brackets change. Just because you’re at $30K today does NOT mean you will stay at the same $30K annual salary in 10 years.

Likewise, just ‘cuz one is earning $250K+ today does not mean you will continue to earn the same salary a decade from now.

Keep working hard and you will reap what you sow.

#86 SunShowers on 12.31.19 at 12:39 am

For all the smug attitude I receive here, nobody has really been able to contend with any of the data I post.

Mostly because they know that said figures are accurate, and people have to contort themselves into pretzels trying to explain why it’s perfectly normal for real median wages to stay stagnant for 4 decades while GDP, productivity, and corporate profits soar, when they used to rise together further in the past.

There’s always the the same people who think they’re extremely smart by making the same 2 or 3 snide comments about how I must not be trying hard enough to survive. Nevermind the fact I work longer hours and have a better education than half the people born on 3rd base making said comments… The thing is, if you get mugged, you don’t go to work the next day thinking you need to work twice as hard to make up for all the cash that got stolen. You go to the authorities in search of restorative justice, and that’s just what young people are doing. If you think I only complain here and not to my elected officials, you’d be sorely mistaken.

One of the upsides of being the most educated generation in history is that we can easily deduce from available data that the reason incomes are flat isn’t because of taxes, as the capitalists would have us believe, but because OF the capitalists.

We’ve put in our work, and we no longer have any patience for people who pulled the ladder to success up behind them telling us that maybe if we work even harder, we MIGHT get what we’ve already been owed.

So unless capitalists start holding up their end of the bargain and giving workers what they’re owed, the workers are simply going to leverage political power to seize and redistribute it for themselves.

At least it’s better than guillotines.

#87 cultural elitist on 12.31.19 at 2:38 am

@#49 – Nonplused
I agree with you regarding the current president …
He is a television phenomena that was used once again to divert the common man’s attempt to understand his world away from what the moneyed are actually up to.

Fair enough, but …
How many more people do socialists have to kill and impoverish before the people finally realize that as nice as the song sounds you are being lead to the rocks?

Get real, dude. Not all democratic socialists are political extremists. Best for all if we don’t misrepresent our opponents. There are lots of social programs in Canada arguably worth strengthening, without destroying the dynamism of capitalism. Best to see both sides, lest you are blindsided … or dare I say, nonplused?

Also, you might not realize this about Monopoly:
The game was originally devised by a socialist as a moral lesson against capitalism. The game was sold to Parker Brothers without the knowledge of its inventor, who really just wanted to popularize some socialist economic ideals. Ironic, and a bit sad, really. See here

Peace,
CE

#88 Jay Currie on 12.31.19 at 4:07 am

Amok #48 Trump’s economy is growing, ours is not.

#89 Captain Uppa on 12.31.19 at 7:11 am

DELETED

#90 Captain Uppa on 12.31.19 at 7:17 am

DELETED

#91 Re-Cowtown on 12.31.19 at 7:37 am

#62 Re-Cowtown on 12.30.19 at 9:38 pm

Trump is investing in America. Building factories, creating jobs, building for the future. Raising people out of poverty. Giving minorities chances they never had before and raising incomes of the lowest paid Americans at a fatsr rate than the CEO’s are getting. No different that borrowing money to start a business.

?????

Thanks for the link free post. Makes it easier to swallow this hogswallop.

No he is not.

Stop saying this stuff that you make up.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Should be easy to prove me wrong then. Post your links denying record US employment stats, denying record black, latino and minority employment stats and denying record business startups by minorities in the US. Should be a snap.

But what I say stands; Trump is a builder and creator of wealth. Trudeau eats the wealth created by others.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 8:03 am

@#61 Lorne
“teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…”
+++++
Ri-i-i-i-i-ight.
Teachers and universities will “teach” the difference between socialism and communism.

The very places that have indoctrinated an entire generation on political correctness and empowerment…..god help us all.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 8:13 am

@#86 Drip Dry
“maybe if we work even harder, we MIGHT get what we’ve already been owed….”
+++++
Newsflash Drippy.
No one “owes” you anything.
Time to EARN it.

Perhaps “the most educated generation in history” studied the wrong curriculum ?
Too many inexperienced paper pushers studying the latest theory in seminars for “productivity and motivation” until the worker bees revolt?

Time to retrain as a plumber, electrician, mechanic, welder?
You know, all those grubby dirty jobs that are paying HUGE money and where there is a drastic shortage of workers…..?
Oh. Right.
You’re too educated to get your hands dirty.

Keep blaming others for the next 30 years for making the wrong choices…that’ll work out just fine….Mr Wal-Mart greeter

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 8:29 am

@#59 IHCTD9
“Compare that to the US’s new twin nuke Ford class carriers which have lasers and rail guns….”

++++

I disagree.
Carrrier based strike groups worked 75 years ago in the second world war when they could “hide” in the ocean.

Todays carriers and their protective battle groups are big, fat, slow, targets endlessly watched, tracked and targeted by carrier killing subs, satellites and missiles.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/news/a18094/a-chinese-submarine-stalked-an-american-aircraft-carrier/

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/report-china-tests-df-26-carrier-killer-missile-should-navy-be-worried-42827

Carriers take between 7 and 9 years to build and are unbelievably expensive to maintain.

https://www.cnet.com/pictures/meet-the-navys-new-13-billion-aircraft-carrier/

Nah, the day of the Carrier is over now that inexpensive satellite tracking and accurate missiles are the norm.
If the US rely’s on it for it’s military doctrine….it will be sorely disappointed.

#95 David Hawke on 12.31.19 at 8:57 am

@#86 Jay Currie “Trump’s economy is growing, ours is not.”

So is his trillion $ deficit which makes Canuckistan’s look nonexistent, eh!

#96 Another Deckchair on 12.31.19 at 9:05 am

@67 Lisa

“In the new year, please consider standing up for the sex-based rights of women and girls in Canada!”

How about we stand up for the rights of people of Canada, irrespective of their sex, skin colour, or whatever.

#97 Glengarry Girl on 12.31.19 at 9:08 am

#71 WUL

I have lived all over the US for this past decade and travel full time coast to coast. My husband is a consultant to the C levels of top Companies, a strategist architect. We have prepared since before 2008 for the inevitable BIG correction. Trump is a liar and a CON, there is no recovery, the US is in decline. I can see with my own eyes the blight and poverty all over the nation. The closed factories and warehouses, LEASE signs on large commercial buildings, abandonment, roads and infrastructure are falling apart. Few companies are investing for growth, most are restructuring and planning acquisitions. Yet, Trump, rants at his Rallies, you have never had it this good, it is INSANITY. I think that the next election can go either way. There is a lot of propaganda pushing Trumps popularity. The RICH have created a system that benefits only those at the top and of coarse they love him. He is keeping the stock market artificially stimulated and they pay no taxes. They are Greedy, they aren’t electing because they care about Humanity. It really is an interesting time to study how the people think during Boom Bust. I have been studying this part of the Economic cycles for a long time. It’s fascinating, I learn a lot reading the comment sections. I read this blog to try to keep a tab on my Canadian people and how they are thinking. Canada is in full out, it’s different here mentality. Even though they watched the Big Short, they don’t think that more clever ways to inflate a Debt Bubble have occurred. They also don’t think that it will come crashing down…typical behavior.

#98 Dharma Bum on 12.31.19 at 9:11 am

As with every generation, the smart ones will rise to the top, notwithstanding the politics of their youth.
The smarter they are, the more opportunities they will be able to capitalize on, and the wealthier and more powerful they will become.

The cream rises to the top.

Once there, their politics tend to change to whatever suits their newly found position in the hierarchy of the socioeconomic structure.
The richer and more powerful they are, the less socialist and naive they will be.
Socialism is the politics of the disenfranchised.

Ambitious, industrious, innovative, entrepreneurial, skilled, intelligent, and successful people shun it like the plague.

Happy Capitalist New Year

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 9:28 am

@#97 G. G.
“. The closed factories and warehouses, LEASE signs on large commercial buildings, abandonment, roads and infrastructure are falling apart. Few companies are investing for growth, most are restructuring and planning acquisitions….”
++++

The US has been moving from it’s “manufacturing” phase to the “information” phase for years.
Something about third world countries having cheaper workers….

Either way. Lots of uncertainty.
The US voter isnt stupid.
Its about jobs, bills, mouths to feed…..
They will hold their nose and vote.
Trump is a certified pig but compared to the miserable choices the voters have in 2020 ( “Baggage Biden” or the socialist loons) infesting the Democrats this election……..he will probably be re-elected.

Prepare for it.
Accept it.
Move on.

#100 D Apostrophe on 12.31.19 at 9:33 am

I think it’s time for many to admit that the boomers have completely messed things up royally and the Mills are gonna bring a reckoning. It’s time they move to the golf course before it’s too late. And good thing Sanders isn’t a boomer because he is desperately needed. Future president AOC will back him up and unless Putin does the same number as last time (very well likely given the behavior of him and his poodle), it looks like that nightmare is gonna end. How is the economy booming? 3 jobs for many in the US. In Toronto, I’m seeing a similar situation as I do in Los Angeles. Unless you’re highly skilled it’s a shit show, and even then.. 6 figure folks are living in trailers in the bay area. In LA.. living in your car isn’t even weird anymore. Buckle up, M’Hosers.

#101 Blog Bunny on 12.31.19 at 9:38 am

Happy New Year Garth !

Not all mills & women are socialists. I have never been one.

Thankfully we got to you in time… – Garth

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 9:50 am

@#100 D ‘
“… Future president AOC …..”
++++

Thanks for the laugh. :)

President of Venezuela?
That socialist “paradise”?

https://thefederalist.com/2019/12/30/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-we-do-not-live-in-an-advanced-society/

#103 Glengarry Girl on 12.31.19 at 9:51 am

#86 SunShowers

When you are smart and a realist, you will be met with all kinds of push back. The data does support what you are saying, it’s called Inequality. Many scholars and economists have been warning us about the consequences of this for 30 years. Keep educating yourself and don’t let it bother you so much what others say. This is typical denial behavior and you aren’t going to change their minds. My kids are all in their 20’s and are experiencing the same thing as you. Most of your peers have been raised to believe that they can achieve the same as my generation. Looking back, we had it so easy. Now, the only way to get ahead it seems is to get in as much debt as possible. My kids paid cash for their education within months of graduation, they work hard, they have no debt, they are the exception. We talk about this data and the reality and they are prepared. Sometimes they feel like they are living in an alternative reality and we are here to give them an education. I think many in your generation are going to come to this realization, a reckoning in the coming years. How they react will be interesting, they were told to get an education, get a good job and you can have a house, kids and vacations, just like your parents. The older generation also loves to shame the young, call them lazy, snowflakes, it’s just a way to Gaslight and try to control them. The workplace has less rights now than when I was young. I am hopeful that there are many like you, smart realists, that you will organize politically and right the ship. Climate deniers and Economic deniers will know the truth one day, but it is too late for them, they had their chance. I support your generation, you have every right to forge ahead politically for the kind of world that you want to live in. Unfortunately, I don’t see a heck of a lot of support from my age group.

#104 Flop... on 12.31.19 at 10:01 am

As usual, some chatter on here about the U.S economy.

Here is howmuch with their latest economic update.

Los Angeles county contributing nearly 4% to the country’s GDP is the one that jumped out at me.

Leaving 23 degree weather today to come home to, I’ll guess, 5 degree weather.

My arthritic hands are too scared to look.

Crappy New Year…

M45TX

“One Map: Where the U.S. Economy is Built.

Economic growth headlines the news in good times and bad. Financial analysts continually forecast and tweak outlooks for the U.S. and the global economy. With the holiday season coming to an end, Americans spent 3.4% more than the prior .year on top of an 18.8% growth in online sales. Although the political focus has been on manufacturing growth, services still contribute more than any other component to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. But is this economic creation equal across the U.S.?

California, Texas, and New York make up nearly 1/3rd of the U.S. GDP.

Rural and less populated states and counties tend to contribute less to the U.S. GDP.

The total population within a given area correlates with GDP output, not necessarily population density.

States like Washington and Texas will be hit disproportionately by the tariff wars.

6 of the top 20 counties are located in California.

The top 35 counties make up 1/3rd of the U.S. GDP.

Top 10 States Contributing to GDP

1. California – 14.6%
2. Texas – 9.2%
3. New York – 7.7%
4. Florida – 5.0%
5. Illinois – 4.1%
6. Pennsylvania – 3.8%
7. Ohio – 3.2%
8. New Jersey – 3.0%
9. Georgia – 2.8%
10. Washington – 2.7%

Top 10 Counties Contributing to GDP

1. Los Angeles, California – 3.8%
2. New York, New York – 3.2%
3. Cook, Illinois – 1.9%
4. Harris, Texas – 1.9%
5. Santa Clara, California – 1.7%
6. King, Washington – 1.5%
7. Dallas, Texas – 1.3%
8. Orange Country, California – 1.2%
9. Maricopa, Arizona – 1.2%
10. San Diego, California – 1.2%

While countries measure their success through GDP, individual states and counties do as well. That’s why the recent readings of a paltry 3rd quarter GDP in the U.S. caused some worry.

While consumer spending continues to bolster the economy, people really worry about the longevity. Even politicians understand their futures rely on economic success. That’s why the recent relief in the trade war abated some pressures on growth. It provides much-needed clarity for counties and states that rely on trade.

The interesting part of the data is who drives the GDP in each county. L.A. county certainly creates massive output through film and industry. Yet, manufacturing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania don’t come up too far behind. The Bay Area is home to tech giants that rose in prominence in the last decade. But will they stand the test of time?

Population centers change over time. The midwest rustbelt fell out of favor as steel production shipped overseas. Tariffs hope to bring back the dying industry. But so far, the large cities attract talent with high paying jobs in service industries. The real question is what this map will look like in 5, 10, or even 50 years. Will the population be the key driver given the increases in automation?”

https://howmuch.net/articles/americas-economic-output-2018

#105 Stan Brooks on 12.31.19 at 10:07 am

Socialism is public ownership of productive assets.

Never gonna happen here.

What is sold as ‘socialism’ to the brainwashed masses is redistribution from the upper middle class (called ‘The Rich’) to the poor as the elite/the owners gets richer in a neo-feudalism bankerism kleptocracy and as the class of ‘useless eaters’ expands.

But I guess Marx and ‘DAS KAPITAL’ is too boring for the ‘sophisticated’ sheeple. I am thinking of following up on it with the ‘Death of labour’, maybe in the new year.

Automation and AI will make/is already making almost all education and labour obsolete, the practice of relying on salary/rented labour in order to sustain living will quickly disappear.

Still time to buy that bio-farm in southern Europe/Latin America/Even US or Canada for cents on the dollar and escape from the big cities trap.

Grow and eat real food, back to the land.

One kilo of real/organic tomatoes is close to/sometimes more than 10 bucks at the grocery store. All real stuff will become more and more expensive as the big cities become unlivable.

Cheers,/on modest old aged Port-wine today.

#106 oh bouy on 12.31.19 at 10:34 am

@#100 D Apostrophe on 12.31.19 at 9:33 am
I think it’s time for many to admit that the boomers have completely messed things up royally and the Mills are gonna bring a reckoning.
___________________________________________

more than likely it’s GEN Z that brings the reckoning.
mills are too busy trying to figure out how to get into the housing market. GENZ will eschew from it entirely (among other revenue drains) freeing up a ton of time for more productive ventures.

#107 david prokop on 12.31.19 at 10:46 am

Garth, I think most of us would agree that it would be kosher if your greatefool.ca generated bit of a revenue from selling ad space in exchange of redesigning the comment sec tion so we can reply directly to posts. I enjoy reading your posts but replies are even better. Thanks for all your hard work.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
2020 will be very interesting

This question has been posed to the blog readership in the past, and rejected. The intent is not to turn this into a messaging bulletin board. – Garth

#108 MF on 12.31.19 at 10:56 am

#106 oh bouy on 12.31.19 at 10:34

I work with a ton of generation Z. Carbon copy of we millennials to the core. The idea they are different is a myth, probably created and propagated by someone trying to discredit millennials.

MF

#109 Phylis on 12.31.19 at 11:01 am

#86 SunShowers on 12.31.19 at 12:39 am I missed the figures you posted. Can you pls repost? I figure it is quicker for you to do the work.

#110 MF on 12.31.19 at 11:05 am

103 Glengarry Girl on 12.31.19 at 9:5

Great post (s). I too did the same thing as your children. It’s infuriating seeing the system reward those who blindly go in debt. I hate to finger point but I believe the debt system we have is a boomer created problem. The boomers control the central banks, regular banks, real estate boards and insurance boards. These are the culprits to blame for the debt based system we have functioning (especially post 2008).

MF

#111 Mattl on 12.31.19 at 11:30 am

#24 SunShowers on 12.30.19 at 6:01 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.19 at 5:49 pm
“Today’s Taxing the crap out of everything will seem terribly unfair once they start earning real money.”

Real median wages haven’t budged in the last 40 years, so just so we’re clear, when exactly can my generation expect to “start earning real money?”

—————————————————————-

If your goal it to make the median + inflation then ya, you will be disappointed.

If your goal is to break away from the Median, then there has been a ton of opportunity the past 40 years. I have a pretty large network and don’t know one person that makes the median. Landscapers, bankers, framers, mill workers, sales people, project managers.

If you are in the GTA, talented and have a good personality I can walk you into any number of sales jobs that start at the median and if you perform pay 2-3x that. It’s that easy. We can’t find enough 25 YO kids to pay 75K a year.

#112 acdel on 12.31.19 at 11:42 am

Happy New Year everyone! Thanks Garth and team for providing great advice over the year. Will leave 2019 with a feel good story!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7838739/Kindhearted-man-gives-two-year-old-girl-mini-shopping-cart-1-grocery-store.html

#113 crazyfox on 12.31.19 at 11:50 am

#74 CEW9 on 12.30.19 at 10:43 pm

Boy who cried wolf theme, interesting.

The problem with refuting “EOTW” nut talk is the science. Why is it that the IPCC is saying, (paraphrasing here) “limit world C02 emissions to 40% less than what they are now in 10 years, or “catastrophic” climate change is certain?” I mean, the IPCC has been lowballing risk this entire time so as not to sound alarmist crazy which, profiteers and denialists will label them as anyway, it works for them. Lets pause on future forecasts for a moment and just look a what happened this year alone shall we? Alberta had its second worst forest fire season in 2019:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/this-is-not-normal-alberta-suffered-second-worst-wildfire-season-on-record-due-to-influence-of-climate-change

This follows BC’s worst season in 2018. BC’s worst season before that? 2017. The province lost 2.78% of its area to fire over 2 years. That’s a lot! The Arctic had its worst season, wait for it, in 2019. Greenpeace estimated 30 million acres lost in Siberia this year (12 million hectares or 9x the forest lost by area in BC (13% of the province) in 2018). This would make Siberia’s fires the world’s second worst by area since the world’s #1 largest fire season by acres in all of recorded human history, perhaps in several hundred thousand years or more, the 2003 Siberian Taiga forest fires (47 million acres). Currently, the world’s 3rd largest wild fire by acres is ongoing in Australia with an estimated 15 million acres burned in their 2019-20 season: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia

They are into their 9th day of summer there now…

There’s a pattern here and the big question is, how much worse will it get when the Arctic ocean ice is all gone? This video walks through the consequences quite well, although I must confess, Dave isn’t as crazy as I am to make an “alarming” prediction. After all, who wants to be the one who cries wolf or bear such a label? (how did that story end again?) Or crazy? (sign me up):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo3cznpfIpA&t=15s

What worries me, what makes me sound anything other than a nut, is the ice thickness that’s left. (12 mins on for the time constrained in link below):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj4e-HhztDk&t=734s

Now… I may be just a low born common plebian serf laymen waife street urchin, no more special or sensory educated than the rest. But I can see what these charts are saying (U.S. Navy sonar charts of Arctic sea ice thickness btw, they are accurate) and its not good. Another El Nino within the next 2 years and its not a major leap that our Arctic ocean is ice free in summer. The chances of an El Nino in the next couple years are likely 80%. We had better start asking ourselves what happens from there as Dave did 2 links up because if the Arctic ocean warms up to the level I think it will, 10 degree C average ocean water summer peaks could be here by 2025?

It means atmospheric temps up there will be 10 degrees warmer in summer than it is now. It means extended melt seasons, more heat waves, more rains, much more intense weather, much slower jet streams and more fires, fires in the range of 30% forests lost to fire in BC as example, by 2030, the unprecedented catastrophic kind and that could very well be a template of expectation for the entire northern hemisphere.

The fires will come first. The economic disruptions follow as real estate around these areas collapse because if you can’t insure it, you can’t borrow to buy it and if you can’t get a mortgage, values go down kind of disruptions. Then come the shortages triggering inflation into mid 20’s debt levels and beyond (toxic mix), then the crop failures and the kinds of economic collapses shrinking populations cause in the 30’s and 40’s and if its bad enough and Greenland ice sheets de-stabilize and melt rapidly way beyond anyone’s expectations as melt seasons extend past 6 months and more even at high altitudes, or as permafrost leaves dead biomass to warm up and rot releasing C02 and methane depending on how wet or dry it is triggering more unexpected warming, the “island” of Greenland will rise from the weight displacement of all that melting ice causing volcanism, a likely flood basalt, (4 of the last 5 global extinction events were from basalts) potential for a super volcano (North America) and major earth quakes and this planet or anything like it will never be the same again.

Unfortunately, its not so hard to imagine. Few want to acknowledge the risk. We’ve got all these other concerns in our lives, too self absorbed… its easier just to put on the filter, deny this “slow burn” is important and go on with our lives until it hits you in the face like forest fires or hits your wallet or your portfolio because Australia is on the other side of the world right? Its not here, its not us, or so we tell ourselves. What are we going to tell ourselves when the Arctic ice is gone, “lets do a wait see, it might not be so bad, there’s nothing we can do about it anyway, it’s too costly, maybe its too late so why try.” Is that going to sum up our character? Define us? Is it?

Y’know… its interesting that you would use the history of “cult alarmism” to make your point. How many times in history has humanity been told the truth about risks leading to catastrophe but wouldn’t listen? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster

#114 SmarterSquirrel on 12.31.19 at 11:58 am

I read an article in the Toronto Star that suggested it was fine to wait until you are 50 to start saving for retirement. https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/opinion/2019/12/30/how-long-can-you-put-off-saving-for-retirement-surprisingly-waiting-until-your-50s-makes-sense-for-some.html

I thought it was ridiculous advice and commented to that fact and they wouldn’t publish my comment. Which was …

“ This is the worst advice I have ever heard. It assumes you will still be employed in a high paying job after you turn 50. That the economy will still be strong. That you will be healthy enough to keep working. That your expenses will magically decrease and it doesn’t consider having to take care of elderly parents or helping adult kids when they need a hand.

Instead do yourself a favour. Save $500/month every month now so that you invest $6000 every year. You can put it in your tfsa. It can grow tax free. Assuming you can average an optimistic 9% return from investing every year and keep saving and investing that amount for 32 years and you’ll have over $1M invested. Assume you drop the risk down a bit when you retire and that will provide about $60k tax free each year without touching the principle. Add in about $12k from CPP and maybe $6k from OAS if that still exists and one person can have $78k annually in retirement. Want more? Save more. But don’t wait until you’re 50 to start saving! Starting at 50 and trying to get to $1m by the time you’re 65 means saving and investing about $31,500 each year. Good luck doing that! If you haven’t been able to save and invest $6000 a year what makes you think you’ll suddenly be able to save and invest $31,500 a year? Save early and invest often now!”

Happy new year! Enjoy the new tfsa room of $6000 tomorrow!

#115 Crazed and a little confused on 12.31.19 at 12:12 pm

Hi everyone,
Please dont listen to garth about real estate. He has been wrong so far. Other than the fact real estate is very local , his correction theories do not match the euphoria of the public and the government support programs to keep $$$ up. Im not going to list out those programs . Garth has done a great job detailing that. I think the poster crazy fox mentioned a few more years of normalcy before chaos reigns Supreme.

But we are already there in small pockets: technology will continue to take jobs, we manufacture less and less. Interest rates will remain ridiculously low. Its the main way govt encourage global players to buy their country’s good and services and social media is a business model now. Stocks will be more volatile than ever.

I bought and sold molson 3 x times in 2019, same with finning , nividia. I did the same 5x with manulife, last sold at dec 17. Will it drop again . Sure why not Dow jones it 28400. It has grown the most in the last 10 years than the previous 80( 10 year blocks)
Will stock market crash. I dont think so employment is strong in the US, most of the other countries are struggling, CANADA included.

Garth could not have predicted rates this low for this long. The great financial divide will just get bigger.
God bless everyone in the coming year.

#116 NoName on 12.31.19 at 12:13 pm

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 8:29 am

Boats that carries airplanes and rockets.

Everything is sincable, now days only real treat for floating thingies is hypersonic missile, and they are steel in development faze. It’s not problem sinking boat, problem is what happens after.

You should read up on that latest hypersonic project gone wrong with decent size kaboom in northern part of Europe where quest for nucleus powered hypersonic projectile went funny.

Read this, latest attempt to make nucleus propelled rocket, place reactor engine to point of meltdown and use heat energy incoming air cool reactor and to propel rocket and we worry about climate change. Luckily our neighbors gave up project pluto way back.

I do remember some time ago one of the country was depending iodine to citizens it was always odd. Here is why

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/russia-mysterious-explosion-arctic-putin-chernobyl/

#117 NoName on 12.31.19 at 12:18 pm

Prediction for next year:

Crazy fox will be posting more and more things are not looking good for CO2 lately with this solar minimum coming to your neighborhood…

#118 Crazed and a little confused on 12.31.19 at 12:24 pm

Crazy fox is extreme though. THE BIG Collapse will not happen in my lifetime 2009 was the worst and i scored some good opportunities there. Never to be repeated for at least 10 _15 years

#119 YVR Expat on 12.31.19 at 12:57 pm

#73 Conscious on 12.30.19 at 10:42 pm
So you agree with Trump in bullying a child – like little Greta Thunberg – Time Magazine’s Person of the Year.

Very Sad.

**********************

Oh please, spare me the liberal tears.

Greta is a crisis actor, nothing more.

#120 devore on 12.31.19 at 12:59 pm

#24 SunShowers

Too hard to grasp the difference between “median wage” and a personal career trajectory? I’m earning much more today than when I was 25.

#121 Bob Dog on 12.31.19 at 1:20 pm

after reading this it is very easy to understand why the young hate the old.

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

I see a big market for guillotines in the near future.

#122 Josh in Calgary on 12.31.19 at 1:23 pm

#12 Guy in Calgary,
You are correct that our political parties are veering further left and right. There was a time when the Cons and the Libs would fight over the middle ground and argue over which side of the middle was better. Now they’re going so far to either side their policies hardly touch in the middle. As a matter of fact they seem to view it as a bad thing when they agree on policy and if it happens by accident they quickly recoil to their own side. It used to be that if both sides agreed on something that must mean it’s good actionable policy.

And this isn’t unique to Canada. I think we’re seeing it happen all over the world. This is far from the first time in history it’s happened. And the consequences of extreme dogmatic politics never work out well. Doesn’t matter if it’s extreme left or extreme right. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

This is why they teach history in school. So we can learn from past mistakes instead of repeating them.

#123 devore on 12.31.19 at 1:40 pm

#113 crazyfox

Plate rebound and volcanism? Now I’m certain you’re an alarmist. Those are geological processes that occur at a geological time scale. Millions of years.

#124 devore on 12.31.19 at 1:43 pm

#121 Bob Dog

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

He is not forced to live in Vancouver.

#125 YVR Expat on 12.31.19 at 1:54 pm

#121 Bob Dog

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

He is not forced to live in Vancouver.

*******************

Exactly! Vancouver is affordable for the average Canadian. It sucks we have to leave, but leave we must!

#126 maxx on 12.31.19 at 1:54 pm

Happy New Year dawgs!!

May your kibble bowls be full of great and wonderful things in 2020, with good health and wealth on an ever upward track.

#127 crazyfox on 12.31.19 at 2:02 pm

#117 NoName on 12.31.19 at 12:18 pm
#118 Crazed and a little confused on 12.31.19 at 12:24 pm

You don’t have to believe me. Try this fellow blog dog alumni instead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_Mo0H2Rt9U

I’m just giving some detail and color as to how it will physically play out. It’s how it’s stacking up at least, as I see it. Bankers are a different breed, they see risk on the financial side and how it will effect economics and growth. One simply can’t blow off what Mark is saying because he’s a banker or talking about climate change or both. Someone this established and connected… one of the first things you learn in commerce is that everything is interconnected. The causal effects of industry, population growth and pollution, you can bet your ass that they know the progressive economic risks to climate change but they tilt along the lines of the UN aggregate conclusions of science (IPCC) with a sprinkle of intelligence from the 5 eyes. You won’t get detail from central bankers this long in the game but you will get direction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/boes-carney-says-finance-must-act-faster-on-climate-change.html

#128 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 2:36 pm

#113 crazyfox on 12.31.19 at 11:50

… I may be just a low born common plebian serf laymen waife street urchin, no more special or sensory educated than the rest.

——————————————-

You could’ve just stopped there.

#129 Quintelian on 12.31.19 at 2:43 pm

#15 Tommyboy
“As they proceed through life, they’ll drift right”

I don’t think so. If social evolution flowed in that predicable way we would still be under the clutches of the aristocracy.

The baby boomers had an opportunity to make this a better world. They had some success, but mostly failures. That was expected. They took over from a psychologically and emotionally damaged generation so they turned to drugs, sex and rock & roll. They got tired of the hangovers, and turned into the mess they are now.

Don’t expect the same going forward.

#130 NoName on 12.31.19 at 3:01 pm

#127 crazyfox on 12.31.19 at 2:02 pm

I really appreciate that you take a time and respond to some of my posts, I actually like and always read all your posts. Don’t know why, is it because of my ODD or your alarmist writing style. Have to admit that I don’t follow up on links more often than not. Now that you mentioned bankers, same guys that didn’t sea GFC coming, what is at play here is just new CO2 fee, that’s all to it plan for new stream for year end bonuses…

It funny that ultra wealthy are buying Bahamas like there is no tomorrow, fully knowing that they will be literally under water in 11 years. Who is financing those deals, some rouge bankers perhaps.

#131 espressobob on 12.31.19 at 3:07 pm

Financial responsibility is a rare quality these days so it seems. Just glad to read the daily stuff on the Greater Fool with like minded people, somehow that never gets paleo.

Thanks Garth, and all who post your thoughts.

We’re the ones that rock!

#132 Prairieboy43 on 12.31.19 at 3:10 pm

Happy New Year. May 2020 be great generator of stories, love ❤️, fun, happiness, and prosperity. Regardless of politics, get outside enjoy the moment. Before it’s gone. Thank you Garth, and Smoking Man for the laughs.

#133 YVR Expat on 12.31.19 at 3:18 pm

#129 Quintelian on 12.31.19 at 2:43 pm
#15 Tommyboy
“As they proceed through life, they’ll drift right”

I don’t think so. If social evolution flowed in that predicable way we would still be under the clutches of the aristocracy.

The baby boomers had an opportunity to make this a better world. They had some success, but mostly failures. That was expected. They took over from a psychologically and emotionally damaged generation so they turned to drugs, sex and rock & roll. They got tired of the hangovers, and turned into the mess they are now.

Don’t expect the same going forward.

********************************

Millennial chiming in. I see the generation today doing exactly what the boomers did back in the 60s: crying far left non-sense while wearing a Che Guevara or Hammer & Sickle T-Shirt with pride. Doing lots of drugs, getting lost in their phones with social media and narcissism, and turning to sex and/or porn. It’s easy to be seduced by revolution when you have nothing to lose.

Times change, people don’t. When these kids grow up and have to start working and paying taxes they will move back to the middle, maybe swing right a little to rebel against the status quo – but they will come back to the middle.

#134 LP on 12.31.19 at 3:19 pm

OK Boomer!

#135 OK, Doomer on 12.31.19 at 3:23 pm

#129 Quintelian on 12.31.19 at 2:43 pm
#15 Tommyboy
“As they proceed through life, they’ll drift right”

I don’t think so. If social evolution flowed in that predicable way we would still be under the clutches of the aristocracy.

The baby boomers had an opportunity to make this a better world. They had some success, but mostly failures. That was expected. They took over from a psychologically and emotionally damaged generation so they turned to drugs, sex and rock & roll. They got tired of the hangovers, and turned into the mess they are now.

Don’t expect the same going forward.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Every generation thinks that they discovered two things:

1. Sex

2. How to fix everything their parents botched.

Tag. You’re it.

#136 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 12.31.19 at 3:40 pm

Lorne on 12.30.19 at 9:33 pm
……..
You are right, Peter….schools need to do a better job……of teaching the difference between “socialism” and “communism”…which is in effect in the countries you mention. Funny how the “right” cannot get their heads around the significant difference between the two.
===========
As someone who has lived in a socialist country before I can assure you that the difference is theoretical. In practice they are both simply authoritarian regimes with no regards to anything but the well being of the elites and no recourse for the working class with zero rights.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 4:12 pm

@#121 Bob Dog.
“I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.”
++++
My god ….what an epic tragedy. A 29 year old chef forced to have room mates….the horror., the unfairness, society should hang its collective head in shame and apologize to the poor unfortunates.
I need cheese with that whine.

I lived with 3 people in a house when I was 28 . Was working for shitty wages and blew it all on beer and bars. We had great parties!
Thats life. Big deal. Quit whining.

Or better yet
Quit working as a low paying Chef with no benefits and get a real job.

Yeah I’m an insensitive prick. Comes with age.
You’ll see.

#138 Tanya Estada on 12.31.19 at 4:23 pm

The right does not know the difference between Socialism and Communism is like saying someone does not know teh difference between heart disease and cancer.

They are both diseases, both bad outcomes, both kill most of the time one more slowly and the other more quicker. Why would anyone with half a brain even contemplate these two terrible choices.

I know many people around the world who can tell you that you don’t want to go down this road because you will regret it very dearly. It is so devastating and you can’t fix it later or turn back to remedy it. It just really sucks chunks.

#139 Ronaldo on 12.31.19 at 4:43 pm

#121 Bob Dog on 12.31.19 at 1:20 pm
after reading this it is very easy to understand why the young hate the old.

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

I see a big market for guillotines in the near future.
—————————————————————-
Who is forcing him to live in the most unaffordable city in the world? Lots of other places in Canada that he could find a Chefs job and live quite comfortably on his own.

#140 the jaguar on 12.31.19 at 5:44 pm

HAPPY NEW YEAR DOLCE VITA! Miss you here on the dog blog.

#141 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 5:48 pm

#121 Bob Dog on 12.31.19 at 1:20 pm

after reading this it is very easy to understand why the young hate the old.

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

I see a big market for guillotines in the near future.

—————————————-

I know of a 47 year old multibillionaire tech CEO also forced to live in a Vancouver home. Poor Meng Wanzhou!

The RCMP is forcing Meng. Who’s forcing your friend?

#142 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 5:53 pm

#121 Bob Dog on 12.31.19 at 1:20 pm

I know a 29 year old chef who is forced to live with 4 other people in one apartment in Vancouver.

I see a big market for guillotines in the near future.

————————————–

Not a problem.

The downtrodden won’t be able to afford guillotines and if they knew how to build with their hands, they wouldn’t be poor.

#143 oh bouy on 12.31.19 at 5:58 pm

@#108 MF on 12.31.19 at 10:56 am
#106 oh bouy on 12.31.19 at 10:34

I work with a ton of generation Z. Carbon copy of we millennials to the core. The idea they are different is a myth, probably created and propagated by someone trying to discredit millennials.

MF
__________________________________________

I also work with a ton of GENZ and mils.
GENZ are a very different breed.
the mils 30 and older are closer to GENX in their thinking and habits.

#144 Barb on 12.31.19 at 6:02 pm

Happy New Year to Garth, Dorothy and Bandit.
And the Turner Investments team.
Live long and prosper!

And to the blog’s Nostradamuses…(Nostradamusi?)

#145 JRH on 12.31.19 at 6:13 pm

Happy New Year !

#146 gfd on 12.31.19 at 6:19 pm

NOTICE: Yet another real estate was taken down.
TORONTO, Dec. 31, 2019 /CNW/ – On December 31, 2019, under the authority of the Real Estate Business Brokers Act, 2002 (REBBA) and in order to protect the public interest, the Registrar of the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) issued an order to immediately suspend the registrations of:

RE/MAX North Country Realty Inc.
Operating in the following locations:
Huntsville (head office)
Bala, Bracebridge, Burk’s Falls, Gravenhurst, Haliburton, Kilworthy, Minden, Port Loring, Wilberforce
The order to suspend the registrations follows a Notice of Proposal to revoke the registrations of RE/MAX North Country Realty Inc.

#147 TurnerNation on 12.31.19 at 6:23 pm

LAST of 2019!!

#148 Nonplused on 12.31.19 at 6:38 pm

#59 IHCTD9

China and Russia also have far less need for carriers as they aren’t fighting wars on the other side of the world.

Russia’s military strategy was and still is largely shaped by WWII. They lost something like 25 million people in that war. So the main objective of the Russian military is to deter and repel and invasion from Europe. Of course they also view the US as a threat so they have a vast nuclear deterrent as well that grew out of the MAD (mutual assured destruction) doctrine, but they put them on missiles, submarines, and long range bombers. If for some reason they saw the need to attack Europe from the air it’s right next door and they have fighter jets and bombers suited to the task.

But one would have to ask what the Russians think they would gain from attacking Europe? Unless Europe attacks first, which also seems pretty pointless, there is no need. Europe has become Russia’s largest trading partner. Where would they sell their oil and gas? Where would they get their BMW’s? Russia need only ensure that nobody in their right mind and even those who aren’t will attack them. Therefore aircraft carries are largely symbolic for them. And given the size of their economy, very expensive symbolism.

I see the Chinese defense perspective as being largely similar, except they suffered most at the hands of Japan during WWII. So they might see aircraft carriers as more useful if that is who they wish to deter. But they don’t need 3 of them floating around the middle east at any given time.

So both Russia and China have gone the “asymmetric warfare” route. Why build expensive carriers you don’t need when they are basically sitting ducks for missiles and submarines? Also why concentrate so many assets in a single target?

#149 Nonplused on 12.31.19 at 7:08 pm

#64 Simon

The “Nordic model” is not socialism and it is not all that different from what we have in Canada. Also like Canada, many of those Nordic countries enjoy large export revenues that certainly help fund things. That is like Canada until Trudeau shuts Alberta down completely, and then Canada will become much poorer.

#61 Lorne

Nazi Germany was socialist. Communist Russia was communist. Therein lies the difference if one can determine it.

So far as I can see it, one major problem with both socialism and communism is that the state can never raise sufficient funds to cover the cost of socialism, so they must revert to conquest or enforced labor.

The first thing to understand about economics is that money isn’t real, it’s an accounting system used to value labor and goods against each other. To understand what is really happening in the economy, instead one has to look at the extraction and manufacture of actual useful products. So, for example, let’s look at “free education”. To make education free, the solution in Canada is to tax the heck out of property owners. The money is then used to pay the teachers and build the schools but both of those activities are in theory useful economic activity. The teachers are teaching Johnie to read and write. So it’s not really socialist and the teachers still have to work. All that has happened is that the school boards, which used to maybe have one old wooden school house, have morphed into something much larger and comprehensive. It’s not socialism.

Employment insurance (an Euphemism if there ever was one) is also not socialist, because you have to work and pay in to be able to collect out in the event of a job loss. Sure, it is government administered, but in theory it doesn’t need to be. Lots of things can be insured by the private sector and I am sure employment could be too. But the government does it. If anything that just means you cannot buy the plan you want and must instead by the limited plan that the government offers. But the thinking is that if the government doesn’t mandate it many people won’t buy it. Probably true. But I’d have rather been able to opt out because I paid in tons over the years but have never collected. I suppose that is what you want will happen with an insurance policy but the problem is that unlike car insurance you don’t get a lower price for good driving. Instead you get a bunch of rules that make it hard to collect and impossible to avoid paying for.

Or let’s look at “free housing”. It would be nice if the government could produce “free housing”, but they can’t. Houses aren’t free. They represent a lot of raw materials, manufacturing, and construction, all of which somebody must do. So to build a house, a lot of people must work. In our system, those laborers are motivated by getting paid. But in a socialist system, there is no incentive to get paid, so nobody works. Why would they? That puts the government in an awkward position of having to compel people to work. That takes a gun. After they kill a few million people other people start showing up for work. Not the system I want to live in.

#150 Shawn Allen on 12.31.19 at 7:18 pm

New Year’s Prediction on Minimum Wage

In 2020, some country like China, India or Mexico will insist in trade talks that the United States of America raise its appalling federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 per hour. (That’s right, $7.25, google it!)

This could thwart Trump’s plans to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.A. At that wage, who wants those jobs?

#151 Nonplused on 12.31.19 at 7:27 pm

#87 cultural elitist

“Get real, dude. Not all democratic socialists are political extremists.”

I didn’t say they were. In fact it is a fairly recent addition to the term “democratic” (at least in the US) to add the word “socialist”. Even the Liberals (big “L”) didn’t add the word “socialist” to their platforms until recently.

The big problem with socialism is that nobody knows what it means. Is it wealth redistribution? Is it forced labor? Is it a magical means to generate wealth without labor? Or is it just public schools? Well we already have public schools and it seems to be working ok. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

All of the socialist schemes they propose can’t work. There is only so much wealth out there and most of it is tied up in productive enterprises or farm land that can’t really be liquidated to provide “free housing”. How can forcing a farmer to sell his cows result in more milk? Even if Jeff Bozos was forced to liquidate Amazon, to whom would he sell it? His wealth is mostly an exercise in mark-to-market accounting. All those numbers mean nothing when it comes time to convert Amazon into “free housing”. You’d have to be able to convince a bunch of carpenters to work for Amazon shares that they knew had been stolen from Jeff.

And yes I know Monopoly was designed to show some of the downsides, not of capitalism but of finacialisation. And human nature. The reason the prices go up up up is because everyone gets $200 when they pass go and there is a steep increase in rents once you have a monopoly. Those who get the money first and then buy up everything in sight, win. By bankrupting everyone else. But this is not capitalism. It’s modern banking.

#152 TurnerNation on 12.31.19 at 7:45 pm

I see what’s going on here. The Missus probably asked our Forum Host to take some time off for some holiday fun. You know, Varoom varoom, inflating what needs to be inflating, lubricating what needs to be lubricated, followed by some smoking and egnogg.
(I’m talking of course about essential mid-winter Motorcycle maintenance to ensure that those bikes are fit come springtime.)

#153 Randy on 12.31.19 at 8:12 pm

….don’t worry…the foods that vegans and millennials are eating are so loaded with toxins and lacking nutritional elements that they won’t be able to reproduce and they will be dying early from degenerative diseases like T2D,
Morbid Obesity, CVD, cancers & early dementia….all of this accelerated by FREE Pharmacare. No real Meats just FAKE Meats….Climate Emergency…bahaha

#154 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 12.31.19 at 9:00 pm

Wow. We get one day off for all of 2019. Unpaid.

What a great employer you are, Garth.

Emma Zaun
Shop Steward
CUPE (Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#155 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 9:02 pm

#153 Randy on 12.31.19 at 8:12 pm

….don’t worry…the foods that vegans and millennials are eating are so loaded with toxins and lacking nutritional elements that they won’t be able to reproduce and they will be dying early from degenerative diseases like T2D, Morbid Obesity, CVD, cancers & early dementia….all of this accelerated by FREE Pharmacare. No real Meats just FAKE Meats….Climate Emergency…bahaha

—————————————–

Lock your doors. Looks like he got out again.

Cuckoo… cuckoo

#156 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 9:36 pm

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.19 at 4:12 pm

Yeah I’m an insensitive prick. Comes with age.

You’ll see.

————————————

Last time my wife and I opened an elevator door, she said, “What insensitive prick would do that!?”

Now we know.

#157 bitwetherd on 12.31.19 at 11:34 pm

thank you Garth for your wonderful advice over the years my wife and I are both 67, we have something under $700K in diversified and balanced investments both rrsps and tfsas and a smallish defined benefit pension.My question is; with no earned income should we remove $6k each from our rrsps to put into our TFSAs which are invested in VGRO.? thanks and Happy New Year to you and yours and all the dogs out there.

#158 Pat on 12.31.19 at 11:58 pm

> People under 30 believe overwhelmingly in the reality of climate change and are happy to use the term ‘emergency’ to describe it.

No one is happy to use the term ’emergency’ to describe climate change, either millenials or the 6000 odd scientists who contributed to the 2018 IPCC report. Young people aren’t different from their parents because they have an inherent love of big government. It is their recognition that the status quo has us hurtling towards an ecological cliff. The previous generation of decision makers was given 30 years of warning about the disastrous effects of climate change caused by continued carbon emissions. Since then, world carbon emissions have only accelerated. Millenials are open to making radical changes in government because history has demonstrated that the status quo is not capable of making the “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” (IPCC 2018 Summary for Policymakers) required to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

#159 BlorgDorg on 01.01.20 at 12:12 am

Boomers are greedy.
Millennials are fearful.

It’s not the economy — it’s human nature, stupid.

Good luck in 2020 to all, and a sincere thanks to Garth & co. for another year of free advice and entertainment.

#160 SoggyShorts on 01.01.20 at 12:53 am

#86 SunShowers on 12.31.19 at 12:39 am
The thing is, if you get mugged, you don’t go to work the next day thinking you need to work twice as hard to make up for all the cash that got stolen. You go to the authorities in search of restorative justice, and that’s just what young people are doing.
**********
Funny metaphor, as that is exactly what I did after getting mugged– I worked double shifts until I earned the money I lost.

Stop complaining about getting average compensation for being average and go do more than average…or accept your fate,up to you.

M40Belize

#161 Not So New guy on 01.01.20 at 2:29 am

Sooner or later, everyone becomes a fiscal conservative

-me

#162 Not So New guy on 01.01.20 at 2:58 am

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 12.30.19 at 4:49 pm

Garth, can you predict when and if the real estate collapse will occur in the GTA? 2020?

=====================================

I can make a rough guess myself. Especially for Vancouver. The markets got very ridiculous around 2017

I’m guessing most mortgages will roll over in the three to five year range. Will banks be willing to continue to advance money with little hope of growth to bail out gambling homeowners?

If not, then rollovers could start biting into the refinance crowd which might increase the liquidation levels. It also looks like even the negative interest rate crowd has reversed so we are probably at a bottom at a minimum as they all begin to realize that negative interest rates suck liquidity out of the system. It doesn’t add to it.

So even with JT2 trying to fix the B20 for renewals, I don’t think it will e enough

#163 Russ on 01.01.20 at 2:58 am

Happy New Year to Dorothy, Garth & Bandit.

Happy New year to all my friends here and the ones who post guesses about national war preparation equipment or global warming.

we look forward to the final year of this decade and new (financial) returns in the coming decades.

Live long & prosper (Vulcan message).

Cheers, R

#164 crazyfox on 01.01.20 at 3:54 am

#123 devore on 12.31.19 at 1:40 pm

Plate rebound and volcanism? Now I’m certain you’re an alarmist. Those are geological processes that occur at a geological time scale. Millions of years. – devore

Millions? No, no, not at all. According to EPICA drilling of ice assays conducted in the early 2000’s:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Project_for_Ice_Coring_in_Antarctica

The link speaks for itself. EPICA looked at the thickest parts of the Antarctic ice pack (3.27 km’s) and drilled to get a history of atmospheric changes of air trapped in bubbles in the ice. They drilled through 8 ice ages over 740,000 years, later scientifically argued to stretch over 780,000 years.

Scientists are theorizing that this matches up with the Brunhes Matuyama reversal of the Earth’s magnetic field which happened roughly 780,000 years ago:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunhes%E2%80%93Matuyama_reversal

But it doesn’t end there. There is also the Jaramillo magnetic field reversal which scientific nerds and eggheads theorize as happening around 990,000 years ago:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaramillo_reversal

It is inferred that what triggered the Jaramillo reversal is the Botsumtwi asteroid collision:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Bosumtwi

I tend to think that an asteroid or comet collision would have changed the Earth’s orbit enough to generate the ice ages we’ve seen over the last 780,000 years when you look at what’s behind the formation of ice ages and their cycles:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

We know that Milankovich theory is accurate since it matches up with these charts from EPICA:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#/media/File:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Project_for_Ice_Coring_in_Antarctica#/media/File:EPICA_delta_D_plot.svg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#/media/File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insolation.jpg

But I wander. Getting back to Greenland, the Greenland ice core project was drilled 3 km’s down the Greenland ice sheet at Summit in central Greenland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project

What they found was a detailed record that goes back 105,000 years. The ice has been flowing over the uneven bedrock topography in the area which has resulted in folding of the layers older than 105,000 years. This means that the ice deposited during the Eemian warm period some 115,000 – 130,000 years ago is disturbed.

http://geoscienze.blogspot.com/2017/06/la-nasa-ha-datato-gli-strati-di.html

Camp Century ice cores for example tap out al little sooner, but the visual of ice is what I want you to see. Check out the you tube video from NASA in the above link. My point is the ice is far younger (not much more than 100,000 years) than Antarctic ice due to the cycles of melt and snow accumulation. This is why ice deficit/surplus is the major marker for Greenland because the ice melts from below and reforms from the top, making the ice much younger.

My long winded point? You’re wrong. :)

I would also lend to suggest that all of Greenland does not have to melt to trigger volcanism and/flood basalts. I’d wager 35… 40% melt will be enough. I’m working the changing numbers (Arctic ocean temps, atmosphere, Greenland atmosphere temps relative to altitudes, global temp projections) over timelines triggered by widening ice free Arctic ocean durations now.

Could Greenland lose that kind of mass (35 o 40%) in less than 30 years? I think its possible, yes. When we think of ice loss in Greenland, we typically think ice melt from the top is what we need to watch but present ice loss occurs 3x faster from sheets calving into the ocean than melt. As ice sheets destabilize and break up, it could easily be 6x faster or more. factor in snowfall turning to rains, latent heat, I think latent heat specific to water is widely poorly understood, especially at scale.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat

#165 crazyfox on 01.01.20 at 4:12 am

#128 Sail Away on 12.31.19 at 2:36 pm

Perhaps I downplay my pedigree a wee bit so as to make others feel more comfortable and naturally, I’m not the smartest guy in the room. Of course… the smartest guy in the room would generally never say that he or she is (how’d I know that I wonder). That’s the thing about dark horses. They don’t attract much attention to themselves and in a poorly lit environment, its hard to see them coming unless they want you to know.

#166 crazyfox on 01.01.20 at 5:50 am

#130 NoName on 12.31.19 at 3:01 pm

Kind words, thanks!

Now that you mentioned bankers, same guys that didn’t sea GFC coming, what is at play here is just new CO2 fee, that’s all to it plan for new stream for year end bonuses… – NoName

I’m not so sure central bankers didn’t see it coming, at least some. Mark Carney, I can’t say for sure. I know that he’s moved onto a UN gig:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/01/un-appoints-mark-carney-to-help-finance-climate-action-goals

It’s a pro bono gig (there must be money in speeches I would think) but no small role considering who Mark is replacing (Michael Bloomberg) and his message is somewhat targeted to money managers of pension funds (long term funds) that reverberate through all managers in general. His warnings are fairly direct:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/30/firms-must-justify-investment-in-fossil-fuels-warns-mark-carney

It’s difficult to say how much influence he’ll have within global commerce… but he is not afraid to take a risk to spell out risk, one of several things I admire about Mark.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/mark-carney-speech-at-jackson-hole-economic-symposium-wyoming?sf107725529=1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney

A summary: Carney said that the “widespread use of the US dollar—the dominant currency pricing—in “trade invoicing, in place of the currency of either the producer or the importer”[50] has had a “destablilizing” effect on the global economy, according to Reuters.[51] About 50 percent of international trade relies on the US dollar as the “currency of choice.” This represents “five times greater than the US’s share in world goods imports, and three times its share in world exports.”[52] Dominant currency pricing is not problematic when there is “synchronised growth” globally, Carney said. When “the tide is rising in America while receding elsewhere”, the system needs to be revamped. Carney cited an article[50] by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau on the potential role of digital currency area (DCA) in redefining the international monetary system.[52]

There’s so much I could say on this topic alone but I posted this because Mark Carney would on occasion blog hear on this site, maybe count it on 2 hands but still, I remember conversations about the subject of the petrol dollar, how much the dollar value is inflated by the world trade of O & G. Naturally, a stronger currency can by itself create a wealth effect. Stronger real estate values can do it as well but there is systemic risk to higher values overdriven by credit and risk to electing the politicians (like Trump) that ignore such risks in favor of wealth effects to get re-elected and that’s why Mark Carney was here, to help steer the narrative on housing, to walk back the risk.

Perhaps the greatest accomplishment Greater Fool has had is not to provide a forum for past MP’s and central bankers and said dignitaries and honorables within the mix of us mutts, or daily guidance of financial planning for the common taxpayer, its the guiding of government policy in the area of real estate and taxation. There is no doubt in my mind, the scope of influence this blog has had on economic federal government policy. The level of influence this blog had on reversing terrible housing bubble inflationary policy in hindsight pre and post GFC, in my view prevented Canada from slipping into a real estate led multi year recession. Of this I have little doubt.

I read a comment around Christmas I think from some numb nutted dummy who said Garth had no clue with real estate, that his predictions were all wrong for 11 years and so on. What this NFA wasn’t blessed with the good fortune to realize, was that without Garth’s persistent complaints laden with causal effect, targeted toward the systemic risk of bad government policy coupled with the existence of this blog as a messaging platform, Garth’s causal effectual predictions may well have come true. Those on the wrong social path might not be able to see it, but Garth, if your reading this, “job well done”.

“It funny that ultra wealthy are buying Bahamas like there is no tomorrow, fully knowing that they will be literally under water in 11 years. Who is financing those deals, some rouge bankers perhaps.” – NoName

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Dorian_in_The_Bahamas

There will be more. HNY, NN Cheers!

#167 Phylis on 01.01.20 at 7:50 am

#158 Pat on 12.31.19 at 11:58 pm CFCs were enacted upon quite quickly. That science was settled. What’s the problem with the current science that it is not being enacted on?

#168 NoName on 01.01.20 at 10:55 am

@ Nonaplaused and asimetric warfare

I did posted this some time ago only reason russ ia had so many big kabooms is because they could not keep up pace with invotation that us did during cold war.

Asimetric warfare alway gives you an advantage for short duration until opposing side adjust, when logistics comes to play and turns a table on you.

Look at the map, and aks how many countries around was not pissed at that county because this and that.

Containment relatively easy to do, even if nebougr from north helps them out with resources that narrows down to few corridors that material could be transported… Africa is place where resources are rich and easy to extract.

Soon when Regan discovered that Rus have economy of California it was super easy to craft a plan.

Soon when o discovered who the main coustomer was and how big debt load is tpp was born. tpp was nice and polite way of what is orange guy doing. Orange dude is steel running o’s forign polyci, remember that.

And story about mig 25. And t72

American were so afraid of those two machines!!!

Mig 25 only had a speed and constraints uppon constraints, luckily for us mig 25, gave us excellent flying machine f15 that does what engenners envisioned that 25 could do. It wasn’t known until 76 that 25 was a dud.

And t72 gassing up it own crew because some didn’t sow need for exaust fan…

There is a reason why all.tnose countries are flexing asimetric warfare, but in a reality copying and does what yeankies do.

Did you see that new helicopter that looks like blackhawk, or that new stealthairplane that looks like f22 have 2 maybe even 3 generation old engines and non absorbing paint and more…

Here is a great podcast for you, start with this episode.
https://www.fighterpilotpodcast.com/episodes/061-f-22-raptor/

#169 Half Full on 01.01.20 at 11:08 am

Who knew there was a bunker beneath the floorboards of the old BMO branch in Lunenburg? It does sort of resemble truth given what we know about ‘banker mentality’.

Me thinks he was referring to crawling into the safe with all the long term bond papers.

#170 Bdwy on 01.01.20 at 4:43 pm

When in corpus… port aransas is a short drive. We ended up staying there a few days. Free ferry too if I recall.

#171 david on 01.01.20 at 6:17 pm

Point 10 about taking capital gain early applies more to speculative stocks which pay no dividends rather than dividend stocks which are often bought and held for their dividends. Increased capital gains taxes will lead to mining and marijuana stocks becoming far less attractive than the boring old dividend paying dogs. Investors take note.