By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
As we’re just about to wrap up another year, I’m about to begin my year-end routine of reviewing all my different recommendations and investments that I made over the year to assess how I did. I started doing this about five years ago and would strongly encourage all our readers to do the same. By going back and analyzing your calls/trades you can see which ones worked out and which ones didn’t.
When I make a trade in my personal account or for our clients I always write down the key points of the investment thesis and then I go back to see if it played out the way I thought it would. While it’s great to review the winners and feel that accomplishment of being right, I believe it’s even more important to focus on the trades that didn’t work out, so you can learn from your mistakes and try to improve your results going forward. Quoting from one of my all-time favourite musicians, Johnny Cash, “I learn from mistakes. It’s a very painful way to learn, with without the pain, the old saying is, there’s no gain.” Who can argue with the “man in black”?
So today I’m going to review the main recommendations I made in these blogposts over the last year to assess how I did, and what I can learn from my mistakes.
Let’s start with our outlook on January 5th. The key calls from that post included:
- Trump and China would likely hash out a trade deal. From the post, “I think it’s going to be a bumpy ride with occasional setbacks but I am hopeful that a deal will be consummated this year.” Outcome: The US and China finalized terms of a Phase 1 deal and should be signed in early January.
- I predicted the US economy would slow but avoid a recession. “Sure the US economy is likely to slow from the roughly 3% growth seen in 2018, as the fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and increased government spending) rolls off, but we see the US economy still growing at a decent 2-2.5% in 2019.” Outcome: The US economy slowed from 2.9% in 2018 to an expected 2.3% (still waiting on Q4), bang in-line with our forecast.
- The Fed would slow the pace of rate hikes in 2019. “As such, the Fed is expected to hike rates only 1-2 times this year, which we believe is the correct path.” Outcome: The Fed cut rates instead of hiking them.
- Equity markets would recover and post positive returns. “When all is said and done, I believe markets will post stronger results in 2019 as investors realize the global economy is not falling off a cliff and the major headwinds in 2018 (Fed rate hikes and Trump’s trade war) will turn out to be important tailwinds for the markets in 2019.” Outcome: Global equity markets were up huge this year driven in large part due to Fed rate cuts and the US/China trade deal.
On February 16th I wrote a post called “Short the banks?!” where I pushed back against the famed investor Steve Eisman who was on BNN and in the media talking up his big short on Canadian banks. His thesis is that after a 20 year housing bubble it will inevitably burst, leading to huge write-offs for the banks and steep declines in bank share prices:
- In the post I concluded with, “We’ve written ad nauseam about our concerns over Canadian housing, but don’t misinterpret these concerns for some deep seated worry around our banks. We don’t foresee a 2008-like US housing crash and, as we’ve laid out in this blog post, we believe the banks remain very strong and should be core holdings for long-term investors.”
- Outcome: As of December 15th TD returned 13.7%, BNS +13.6%, RY +16.5%, BMO +18.3%, and CM +11.7%. While the banks underperformed the broader TSX this year, they still delivered solid returns in 2019.
On April 13th I wrote a post on the merits of dividend stocks. I highlighted their great historical returns, their preferential tax treatment, and how low interest rates and aging demographics adds support for dividend stocks. From the post:
- “In summary we love dividend-paying stocks and it’s why they are an important part of client portfolios. Every one of our current equity ETF holdings in client portfolios pay a dividend and in fact we’ve been increasing exposure to dividend growers since that’s where you get the best bang for your buck.”
- Outcome: Our Canadian dividend ETF was our best performing Canadian equity ETF this year and it outperformed the TSX by over 2%, as of December 17th.
In my April 26th post “What comes next”, I reviewed the factors that helped push the equity markets higher and highlighted the improving US economic momentum and the better-than-expected US corporate profits. Additionally:
- “In summary, the markets have had a great start to the year and while in the shorter term we could see some consolidation, I believe the fundamentals (improving economy and positive earnings growth) could propel the equity markets even higher this year with the S&P 500 and TSX hitting new all-time highs. Here’s hoping!”
- Outcome: The TSX and S&P 500 are trading at new all-time highs.
Finally, on July 9th I predicted in “Divergence” that: 1) the Fed would only cut rates once this year, and 2) the Bank of Canada would not follow the Federal Reserve and cut rates. From the post:
- “Because I believe the US economy is in better shape than the market currently is pricing in I believe we’re likely to see just one rate cut from the Fed this year versus the three that the market is currently pricing. Given this I believe the BoC will be more patient and very likely remain on hold for this year.”
- Outcome: The Fed cut three times this year versus my prediction for one cut and the BoC remained on hold.
Below is a table summarizing my key calls for 2019 with the results. I am very happy to say that I went 7 for 9 this year on my major calls. I like to say to clients “that I’m not going to get every call right and that as long as I go 6 for 10, I can fairly confidently deliver a 6-7% return with a balanced portfolio”. This year I exceeded that, which is in part why our clients are having a record year.
Looking back at 2019 my one bad call was calling for “one and done” from the Federal Reserve with respect to the rate cuts for this year. Following this I went back and looked at previous Fed cuts during a slowdown and learned that the Fed cut three times in two previous instances (in the 1990s). Now I’ll know this for the future and maybe not make this mistake again.
So while you’re getting some much needed R&R with friends and family over this holiday break, take a moment to do what I do and review your investments and try to learn from the ones that didn’t pan out, in an effort to learn from your mistakes and be a better investor for 2020.
I wish all the blog dogs a happy holiday and prosperous 2020!
Results of Key Calls This Year
Source: Turner Investments
* Trade deal is not yet finalized but likely will become January
.
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
66 comments ↓
Hi Ryan good job on the forecasting and results
What is your top Canadian and Global dividend etf ?
Just for further research on my part
Happy holidays and best wishes for 2020 to the Turner team !
Thank you for your guidance Ryan.
Merry Christmas sand Happy New Year for you and your family.
good job!
A year everyone unloaded stocks except the U.S. bankers.
I’m invested in the US
Difficult to review 2019 because for me, everything went straight up
Actually, Inflation is measured accurately
#53 dosouth on 12.20.19 at 10:03 pm said:
Guess I just wanted to say that the actual CPI really means nothing anymore with removal of things that actually makes sense.
A few other chimed in about the CPI numbers being misleading.
Actually, the headline CPI number does not remove or exclude anything. Additional core numbers are provided to remove volatile numbers but the headline number includes everything.
Before believing claims that CPI is purposely under-stated by the government it might be worthwhile visiting the actual data.
Statistics Canada provides details on the various components and weights that go into its estimates of inflation.
They give so much information and it is just sad to see people disparage their numbers and make false accusations.
But people believe what they want to believe. Most people find that useful in blaming the world for their problems.
For those interested in actual facts:
https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=2301
Excellent interactive tool here:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018016-eng.htm
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000413
Fortunately all those calls are irrelevant to a balanced investor
Zzz
#70 Dharma Bum on 12.21.19 at 10:34 am
#9 Shawn Allen
Want a higher savings rate?
If you have non-registered cash you can move $100k into various places that pay higher.
——————————————————————-
I don’t get why people that actually have saved money sitting in 0% bank accounts simply don’t just buy bank shares instead.
They seem to steadily climb in value over time, and pay a consistently decent dividend.
Bank stocks have always been a pretty solid, good returning investment vehicle. Proven out year after year after year. Income and growth in the long run. (Sure, they falter every once in a while, but that’s when you pick up some more…duh.)
Is the average Joe-saver out there really that dumb and unaware?
Must be.
*******************
PSA.TO
As close to a guaranteed 2% return as I could find, and it’s in dividends which have a tax advantage.
100% of real estate agents in Toronto were correct with their calls on housing this year too. “It’s going up, trust me.”
Must’ve been a good year for predictions all around :)
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
pretty good regardless.
Happy Holidays Ryan.
Great retirement calculator here
https://financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator
And one for tax rates.
https://www.eytaxcalculators.com/en/2019-personal-tax-calculator.html
#6 Shawn Allen on 12.21.19 at 12:03 pm
“[…] Before believing claims that CPI is purposely understated by the government it might be worthwhile visiting the actual data.” As Newt Gingrich once pointed out, facts don’t matter; he’ll “go with how people feel.” It’s rather discouraging in our Orwellian world that the noun ‘data’ needs to be qualified by the adjective ‘actual’.
“Statistics Canada provides details on the various components and weights that go into its estimates of inflation.[…]” As Upton Sinclair once wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” Witness the current state of US politics (e.g., Lindsay Graham in 1998 and now). :)
“They give so much information and it is just sad to see people disparage their numbers and make false accusations.” I agree with you! You’re obviously an investigative personality type, and interested in getting at the truth. :)
“But people believe what they want to believe. Most people find that useful in blaming the world for their problems.[…]” Especially blaming minority groups (like Muslims, Hispanics, Latinos and Jews). In our now Trumpian world, blaming and stereotyping has led to a spike in violence against these groups. :(
What’s your prediction on Metro Vancouver real estate market in 2020?
Debtslavecreator “Hi Ryan good job on the forecasting and results.What is your top Canadian and Global dividend etf ? Just for further research on my part. Happy holidays and best wishes for 2020 to the Turner team !”
We can’t make specific ETF recommendations but in a recent blogpost I highlighted our key investment themes which include REITs, low volatility ETFs and US value stocks. For each theme you can Google ETFs that match up. – Ryan L
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/11/23/on-the-defence/
#10 Dr V on 12.21.19 at 2:02 pm
Great retirement calculator here
https://financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator
*********
Try this one:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGrMm6XSGWBVLI8I_DOAeJV5whoCnSdmaR8toQB2Jz8/edit#gid=0
This one back tests against every single possible monthly cohort.
For example what if you had X dollars in your PF with Y and Z pensions and retired right before the 2008 crash? or 2000? 1966? 1929? How much could you withdraw each year(inflation adjusted) safely for a 30/40/50 year retirement wihtout going to zero.? Or to maintain x% for you kids inheritance. and more.
Like Garth says, the #1 concern in retirement is cash flow.
Dave “What’s your prediction on Metro Vancouver real estate market in 2020?”
I make predictions on areas that I have some expertise on like the economy and financial markets. Vancouver RE is outside of my wheelhouse. I’ll be providing our outlook and market predictions in my next post. – Ryan L
Your information is a useful tool for many
I think forecasting is very difficult, I much appreciate you updating as the year hums along.
Interest rates I think will continue to be the hardest to predict.
For me I worry about world debt both personal and government debt.
however I think some future newsletters in 2020 can discuss about how to protect yourself from this coming debt crisis.
I understand about balanced and diversified portfolio But I do not believe that thinking is the answer in a crisis.
i always believe no matter what happens in the next year, we will be better off ten years from now in everything from medical advances to climate issue to heating our homes.
All the best to you and your family.
Happy Holidays: Ryan, Doug, Sinan, Garth, Dorothy, Blog Dogs and Bandit!
>The repo market mystery continues….
Bigger Isn’t Better
BY NOMI PRINS
POSTED
DECEMBER 20, 2019
What caused the overnight lending market to unexpectedly seize up in September? There’s a good reason to believe JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) may have been at the heart of it.
JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the U. S., and has about $1.49 trillion in deposits. It’s one of the big banks that provide much of the loans in the overnight money markets.
But it seems the mega-bank had gone on a stock buyback spree from January through September of this year…
…82% of bank analysts on Wall Street recently gave Citigroup stock a “buy” rating. What you didn’t hear reported on CNBC or Fox Business News is that the major banks they work for — like JPM, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Bank of America — have strong incentive to recommend Citigroup.
That’s because all the major banks are interconnected through derivatives. And weakness in one bank could spill over into the others. So it’s not a level playing field at all. It’s tilted in favor of the big banks….
https://dailyreckoning.com/bigger-isnt-better-on-wall-street/
for me.Thanx to all at Turner Investments.
Did you predict the repo crisis and that the fed would save the economy from crashing in Sept by injecting 50 billion a day to overnight lending? Had this played out differently all the items you listed would have an “x” beside them.
Owning a portfolio of ETFs that mimic a global index is all most need along with holdings like bonds and prefs acting as ballast when things tank and they do.
It’s the emotional mindset of retail investors that are unpredictable, usually lacking a game face.
This alone is good reason for professional management.
If you guys want to make serious money, covert your puny loony pesos into ‘real Dollar$’ and invest in U.S. TSX is pathetic compared to the U.S stock market. You already pay enough in the name of nationalism.
#14 SoggyShorts on 12.21.19 at 4:02 pm
Bank stocks have always been a pretty solid, good returning investment vehicle. Proven out year after year after year. Income and growth in the long run. (Sure, they falter every once in a while, but that’s when you pick up some more…duh.)
………………………………..
It is a mystery to me too why people don’t get this. I buy them during the dips when they pay 5+% tax advantaged dividend and I sell them when they dip below 4% dividend. I don’t care if they fluctuate and I have to wait a few years cuz I am being paid 5+% to wait. I bought some NA-t at 45 in 2016 when it was paying 5+% and recently sold some at 72ish paying under 4% so I got a 60ish % cap gain plus 5+% a year for waiting. I have no clue why anyone would buy bonds or etfs.
Is there any viable path for central banks to ever meaningfully raise rates? Any significant raises will kill the economy and trigger massive bankruptcies.
How does this play out?
$50 billion a day?
#20 Alessio on 12.21.19 at 4:25 pm
Did you predict the repo crisis and that the fed would save the economy from crashing in Sept by injecting 50 billion a day to overnight lending? Had this played out differently all the items you listed would have an “x” beside them.
***************************
Okay is that a new $50 billion everyday? Or just the same $50 billion loaned out in the overnight market each day and then notionally repaid and loaned out again each day?
Also, $50 billion, is that a lot?
#20 Alessio on 12.21.19 at 4:25 pm
Did you predict the repo crisis and that the fed would save the economy from crashing in Sept by injecting 50 billion a day to overnight lending? Had this played out differently all the items you listed would have an “x” beside them.
—————————————
‘Would have’ doesn’t exist.
Is or isn’t. Was or wasn’t.
The Chapwood Index
Finally, some real numbers on inflation! When I hear how we have ‘low inflation’ I want to gag (then scream).
—
“The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.”
https://chapwoodindex.com/
Ryan, good numbers for 2019. Now, please tell me you’ve actually sold some of your ‘winners’ cuz as we all know, paper-gains aren’t real…until you sell.
Also, I’ve learned to make my calculations (for gains/losses), on 3-5 year intervals. My target is >100% gains in 5 years – and i’m ok with losses in individual years (as 2019 was for me – down 1.5%, but last month was up 6.50%). I was accumulating energy stocks in a bear market which was relentless and plain stupid, valuation-wise, given that oil was almost double 2016 lows.
So, I expect 2020 to be a stellar year – I hope you have a repeat, but you don’t seem to appreciate the risk. Or maybe you do!
tcc
OK good job.
As soon as you’ll have all winners at the end of a Bear year you’ll have me convinced that you are one of the greats!
To all at Turner Investments a Bravo Zulu with a clasp for a great year!
#20 Alessio on 12.21.19 at 4:25 pm
Did you predict the repo crisis and that the fed would save the economy from crashing in Sept by injecting 50 billion a day to overnight lending? Had this played out differently all the items you listed would have an “x” beside them.
Did you expect the Spanish Inquisition? Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
#6 Shawn Allen on 12.21.19 at 12:03 pm
Actually, Inflation is measured accurately
Sure, keep dreaming. Inflation of used toilet paper for sure is measured correctly, for the remaining items:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Current bastardized ‘inflation’ (aka CPI) measures spending habits, excluding food and energy. Broken sheeple can not keep spending more than it is earning/borrowing hence the inflation ‘measures’ are ‘stable’.
Everything of value – food, housing, health care, key services, education increases times faster.
If we measure the inflation the way it was measured in the 80-es, it is north of 6-8 %, see shadowstats.
Does anyone except you really believe that peak inflation is the current ‘measure’ of 2.4 % with average being less than 2? What are you smoking?
Cheers,
That is a real stretch to even suggest that Phase 1 is the China-US trade deal completed or even partially completed
All that happened was China made trump blink.
Trump reduced and cancelled many tariffs and China won’t even confirm they are buying 50 billion in agriculture supplies.
Trump always says China will buy these goods… and they don’t
That aside..
Merry Christmas :)
#6 Shawn Allen on 12.21.19 at 12:03 pm
What do you expect to see on the statistics web site, a statement that they lie?
Do you know how inflation was measured in the 80-es and 90-es and why it deferred so much from current measures?
It did not have adjustments, substitution, implied values, limited weightning etc. If you pick key constant basket of goods and services and track its price changes you will get very different results from the ‘core CPI’. To call the latest ‘inflation’ is a travesty and a lie.
Inflation is always associated with ‘cost of living’.
What exactly in the way inflation was measured in the 80-es and 90-es is wrong? Jump in here and explain.
Cheers,
Nice recap, Ryan. Happy holidays to you and your family!
A few commenters here have provided links to “retirement calculators”.
Do they work in factors like getting run over by a bus or a bronc dumping you on your noggin and bustin’ you up pretty bad on Stephen Avenue Walk in Calgary?
Both are more likely than me having moolah in the ’20’s.
8.72 % pretax this year, in Brasilisn Government bonds.
No management fees, commission trades, or lost sleep required.
How’d you get those Brazil bonds?
#22 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 12.21.19 at 4:55 pm
——————————————–
Instead of childish trolling, let us know what exactly is better, and why.
I’m a dual US/CDN citizen who does business in both countries, so will be able to support or refute your claims.
If you want to just keep yelling US good/Canada bad, feel free to do so, in which case my mental picture of an angsty teen or 20-something, greasy-haired, possibly antifa, parent basement dweller, will remain intact.
#38 Sail Away: The list is unending Weather, Housing, Quality of healthcare, taxes, affordability, Universities, Research, Sports, opportunities, business prospects, enterprising, financial markets, standard of living, in short – LAND OF MILK AND HONEY. USA! USA! USA!
#36 Keith in Rio on 12.21.19 at 7:00 pm
8.72 % pretax this year, in Brasilisn Government bonds.
No management fees, commission trades, or lost sleep required.
#37 Jeff on 12.21.19 at 7:42 pm
How’d you get those Brazil bonds?
Brazil inflation is about 3.5%, and the BRL lost almost 9% to the USD so far this year…
Personally, I’d lose sleep over that.
#31 Stan Brooks, who was disagreeing with #6 Shawn Allen
———-
If you want to ignore Statistics Canada’s detailed breakdowns of their figures, that is your choice.
If you want to argue their methodology and suggest it under-estimates a couple components by a little bit, you might have a valid argument!
But don’t assert that inflation is “north of 6-8%”. That is absurd. If they were truly off by such a vast amount then it would be obvious to every onlooker.
In other words, you wouldn’t need fancy “shadow” websites like the one you linked. Such a vast discrepency would immediately appear on the six’o’clock news, unless there were the greatest conspiracy of all times to hide the obvious.
Don’t forget, people ‘bet’ on inflation numbers and there’s no way bond yields would be this low if inflation were north of 6-8%.
I won’t argue StatsCan is perfect, but they cannot possibly be that far wrong.
@#38 Sail Away on 12.21.19 at 7:46 pm
#22 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 12.21.19 at 4:55 pm
——————————————.
If you want to just keep yelling US good/Canada bad, feel free to do so, in which case my mental picture of an angsty teen or 20-something, greasy-haired, possibly antifa, parent basement dweller, will remain intact.
______________________________________
more likely that it’s stan brooks or SM using another handle
How did I do? On Feb. 2/2019 “Tapped Out”, I predicted that XIU would rise by 20% by end of year 2019 from it’s low on Dec. 24, 2018. It is up 23.25% ytd. My balanced and diversified portfolio of 6 funds is up a healthy 14.24% net of fees.
Nice one, Ryan.
It is RESP season, so I decided to see how my self-directed RESP did. And because RBC Direct Investing will not give you the numbers, you have to figure it out yourself with a spreadsheet.
I’ve had the RESP almost 4 years, and it turns out my stock+etf picks were mediocre.
If I discount the “free-money” effect from the Gov Grant, I see that I did +25.4% over 3.95 years.
This gave me an average yearly yield of +5.89% (jan 2016 – dec 2019)
Rather meager, but I guess I was doing better than Mutual Funds or GICs.
And there is the fact that some of that investment was put up by the government of course.
Or wait.. did I make a mistake in my reasoning here? Because the investment was put up gradually, and not all present since day 1. So maybe I did well after all.
Last January this guy was predicting a minimum 50% drop in Canadian banks and was shorting them. He figures that the money flowing in from China has caused the housing bubble in Canada. Will he be right or will he end up losing his shorts?
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/canadian-banks-could-drop-by-at-least-50-china-to-play-a-role-short-seller~1590438
#39 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 12.21.19 at 8:19 pm
#38 Sail Away:
The list is unending Weather, Housing, Quality of healthcare, taxes, affordability, Universities, Research, Sports, opportunities, business prospects, enterprising, financial markets, standard of living, in short – LAND OF MILK AND HONEY. USA! USA! USA!
——————————–
Off the meds again, eh?
“As of December 15th TD returned 13.7%, BNS +13.6%, RY +16.5%, BMO +18.3%, and CM +11.7%”
Where are you getting these huge numbers? When I look at the stocks for the banks, they are nowhere near this in a 1-year period.
“ Our Canadian dividend ETF was our best performing Canadian equity ETF this year and it outperformed the TSX by over 2%, as of December 17th.”
My poor ZPR is still in red zone. What am I missing?
Happy New Year and all the best in 2020! Keep doing a great job!
#40 Soggy Shorts
When you buy and hold until maturity 8-15 years later, it’s different. I also day trade currency. Been doing both since 2001.
That’s why I am here, and you are there.
#39 Hollywood florida is nice currently its been raining in florida for last few days.
ran into a few friends, for a women who came from carribean about 20 years and worked at home depot no real education has 2 homes paid for, some savings etc.
she is reasonable, not overly entreprenerial, but has amassed a nice amount of equity, the point is that the system in the us is much better on many levels in terms of access to capital, opportunities, lower taxes, etc
example i bought a bunch of shoes for 1.25 a pair yesterday, you might think why would a store sell shoes for 1.25 a pair, yes closing down in their respective case, the point is, americans are generally less educated and less knowledgable that the average canadian,but yet because of the system they are wealthier.
that is the overriding point, trudeau has really moved us canadians into a fear of the environment, totally social conscience , but what has happened is Canada is now filled with fewer and fewer business people, less people paying taxes, a smaller and smaller base, and when average marginal taxes of 200\k canadian \150 us and your at the marginal rate of 50% in effectively all provinces, there is no incentive to grow, and that is why canada will continue to fall behind the us counterparts.
you have to give incentive for people to get up in the morning and make some money for income and also personal growth, canada stifles you at every turn.
they really want you to be poor subsistance living in canada, disappointed in the gap between the us and canada over last 10 years, not just trudeau it started before him but its widening now. i think in 10 more years, a poor american will be wealthier than 50% of canadians. the trend is bad,
Hey Swami,
Since you’re so good at predictions, can you tell me this?
1) Will the Leafs win the Stanley Cup this year?
2) Will I be able to stop eating like a pig and lose 20 lbs?
These are my overriding concerns for 2020.
Today we hit 700 billion in federal debt.
https://www.debtclock.ca/
#50 crossbordershopper on 12.22.19 at 9:13 am
Lol this guy:
“they really want you to be poor subsistance living in canada, disappointed in the gap between the us and canada over last 10 years, ”
-10 years ago the US was in the grips of the financial crisis, and we weren’t. I find it reaaaaaaaally hard to believe you when you say the average american was better off. Actually, I find it hard to believe anything you write..except that you smoke weed. That makes sense since it clearly destroys brain cells.
MF
#50 crossbordershopper on 12.22.19 at 9:13 am
example i bought a bunch of shoes for 1.25 a pair yesterday, you might think why would a store sell shoes for 1.25 a pair, yes closing down in their respective case, the point is, americans are generally less educated and less knowledgable that the average canadian,but yet because of the system they are wealthier.
————————————
Anyone celebrating cheap liquidation shoes from a failed business as a example of boundless opportunity needs to put away their Horatio Alger colouring book and lay off their jug of Sunday morning mimosas…
MaryEn ““ Our Canadian dividend ETF was our best performing Canadian equity ETF this year and it outperformed the TSX by over 2%, as of December 17th.”
My poor ZPR is still in red zone. What am I missing?
Happy New Year and all the best in 2020! Keep doing a great job!”
ZPR is an ETF of preferred shares not equities. You’re not alone as our preferred share ETF is in the red as well for many of our clients. It’s been the one weak spot in our portfolio over the last 18 months and is the one ETF that reacts negatively to falling interest rates (bonds do well when rates decline and stocks generally like low rates as well). But don’t give up on it since we see prefs recovering as rates continue to slowly grind higher. And this hits home a point from the post. Not every position is going to be a winner but as long as you have 6 or 7 of 10 positions in the green then you should be able to get returns of 6-7% over the long-run. – Ryan L
RWZM ““As of December 15th TD returned 13.7%, BNS +13.6%, RY +16.5%, BMO +18.3%, and CM +11.7%”
Where are you getting these huge numbers? When I look at the stocks for the banks, they are nowhere near this in a 1-year period.”
Those are total returns which includes the dividends. Don’t forget those awesome 4% yields. – Ryan L
#42 oh bouy on 12.21.19 at 10:08 pm
Lol we have a few of these MHT’s (multi handle trolls).
Here’s another:
Jenny Wang = The Great Gordonski
You kind of sort of tell where they are located by what time they usually post. If it’s always in the middle of the night, good chance they are overseas trolls. We do have our own Canadian trolls though..ahem SCM.
MF
Why I am thinking that “trade deal with China” is not yet ready baked and might not work?
41 D.D. Corkum on 12.21.19 at 9:58 pm
If you want to ignore Statistics Canada’s detailed breakdowns of their figures, that is your choice.
Yes, I want to ignore it. Numbers themselves are meaningless without the context.
If you want to argue their methodology and suggest it under-estimates a couple components by a little bit, you might have a valid argument!
Yes, I want. Food and energy are not included in the core CPI. The rest are subject to substitution, weightning and other tricks. Do you know what those really mean and how it works?
But don’t assert that inflation is “north of 6-8%”. That is absurd. If they were truly off by such a vast amount then it would be obvious to every onlooker.
Yes, I will assert it as it could be even higher than that. Read below.
In other words, you wouldn’t need fancy “shadow” websites like the one you linked. Such a vast discrepency would immediately appear on the six’o’clock news, unless there were the greatest conspiracy of all times to hide the obvious.
Yes, you do.
Don’t forget, people ‘bet’ on inflation numbers and there’s no way bond yields would be this low if inflation were north of 6-8%.
Yes, it can. Why do you think we have central banks then? To provide ‘liquidity’ and buy bonds.
I won’t argue StatsCan is perfect, but they cannot possibly be that far wrong.
Yes it can.
As:
#27 tccontrarian on 12.21.19 at 5:32 pm noted on the
The Chapwood Index
https://chapwoodindex.com/
I suggest reading it and also go in details on how it is calculated:
https://chapwoodindex.com/the-solution/
https://chapwoodindex.com/chapwood-index-items/
as to measure The True Cost of Living increases , not some fancy invented out-of-touch-with-reality statistics.
It suggests inflation/cost of living increases of 10-12 % in the last 5-6 years in the 50 major US cities.
How much do you think it/the inflation is here, less than that?
So I am being moderate.
It is not what you don’t know that kills you, it is that you know for sure, that just ain’t so.
I bet that the vast majority of people will agree with the chapwood index than with the official ‘statistics’.
Did Stan Brooks tell a lie?
At 31 above he complained of
“Current bastardized ‘inflation’ (aka CPI) measures spending habits, excluding food and energy.”
So he is spreading the claim that official inflation excludes food and energy.
But here are quotes from page 1 of the latest Consumer Price Index press release:
“Energy prices rose 1.5% year over year in November after declining by 2.9% in October. Gasoline prices drove the increase in November, growing 0.9% on a year-over-year basis following a 6.7% decline in October.”
“Meat prices rose 5.2% year over year in November, marking five months of increases at or above 4.0%. Consumers paid 6.2% more for fresh or frozen beef, following disruptions to North American supply chains and strong international demand for Canadian beef during the first 10 months of 2019.”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191218/dq191218a-eng.htm
See the link here for a great table showing the components. Look there Food id the first item on the list.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191218/t001a-eng.htm
So, AGAIN, official Canadian CPI excludes nothing. The legend that food and energy are excluded is due to the fact that they do report secondary figures that exclude the more volatile items. Also this false claim is spread by people who seek to mislead.
So, did Stan lie?
Not necessarily. It’s not a lie if you state a false fact that you actually believe.
It’s just painful to know that some people will glom onto false claims like Stan’s.
Some of Stan’s other points about methodology changes and substitution may be very valid. But they have zero credibility due to his repeated claims on this blog of 6 to 8 percent inflation which number he simply makes up.
Sad.
But what about the market for collectable antique bubble gum wrappers and rare Fancy Coloured Blog Dogs.
Thanks for the post, Ryan. Since you mentioned about your own investment portfolio, would you be willing to disclose what risk level you maintain? I would imagine someone like you would be able to stomach more volatility with higher returns, than the B&D portfolio return of 6-7% that you strive to deliver to your clients?
good read,
Ryan its all relative. Active management doesnt win, so being ‘tactically’ balanced with etf’s doesnt provide any alpha, it actually decreases returns over time.
diversification , low mer’s, rebalancing . Its the only free lunch we have
etf’s have changed the game, tilted wealth creation in retail investor favor– no more paying anyone .75-2% be it a fund or advisor
#53 MF on 12.22.19 at 10:09 am
-10 years ago the US was in the grips of the financial crisis, and we weren’t. I find it reaaaaaaaally hard to believe you when you say the average american was better off. Actually, I find it hard to believe anything you write..except that you smoke weed. That makes sense since it clearly destroys brain cells.
MF
Hahahahahaha.
That was the funniest self-delusional idiotic assessment of the situation 10 years ago.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/did-canadian-banks-receive-a-secret-bailout
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/30/canada-bank-bailout_n_1466219.html
Stupiiiiiiiiiiiido, squared, then exponential.
Communicated with superiority, with conviction and strong believe. Pure emotions, no logic.
Combined with ‘first world country’, ‘superior, free health care’, world class cities and other stupidities.
If I only could have your ignorance…
Cheers,
#51 Dharma Bum on 12.22.19 at 9:30 am
Hey Swami,
Since you’re so good at predictions, can you tell me this?
1) Will the Leafs win the Stanley Cup this year?
2) Will I be able to stop eating like a pig and lose 20 lbs?
These are my overriding concerns for 2020.
————————————–
Can I try?
1. No
2. Here are my two most effective tips: a) if you’re fat, stop eating. You’ll get thinner; b) if you’re spending too much, stop buying things. You’ll get richer.
Don’t overcomplicate it.
#60 Shawn Allen on 12.22.19 at 11:31 am
Incredible ignorance and stupidity:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mackleme.pdf
The new core CPI measure (hereafter simply “core
CPI”) excludes the eight most volatile of these 54
components from the total CPI and then adjusts the
remaining components to remove the effect of changes
in indirect taxes.2 The eight components excluded are
fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, intercity transportation, tobacco, and mortgage-interest costs.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-indicators/
Did you read at all the https://chapwoodindex.com/ link?
Of course not, you know it all. You know what you are told and it must be true!
Bhahahahahahahaha.