Trumped

One year ago this blog’s comment section was overwhelmed with gnashing and moping as equity markets swooned. We were just days away from the bottom of the Santa Slaughter that carved 20% out of all-stock portfolios. By the last day of 2018 US markets had shed more than 6% and Bay Street gave up 12%. Balanced portfolios were off for the year by just 3%.

Lots of people gave up, despite the advice of a certain pathetic blog that it would go away. A year ago today (Dec 19) the Dow lost 358 points and closed at its lowest level in a year as the Fed raised its key rate and investors clamored to take risk off the table. It was the worst December performance since 1931, and came after a year of record highs.

Here were the eight rules we told you to follow as the blood flowed…

(a) Always have a balanced and diversified portfolio
(b) Never sell into a storm.
(c) Ignore volatility. It’s noise.
(d) Never exit an asset class.
(e) Don’t try to time the market. You can’t.
(f) Ignore those who tell you to (i) go to cash, (ii) buy gold, (iii) buy Bitcoin, (iv) buy GICs or (v) run screaming
(g) Invest in quality ETFs in the correct weightings, rebalance once or twice a year and ignore whatever the hell the Dow is doing.
(h) Never watch BNN. Like, never.

One reader with much money invested (four million) couldn’t take it, sold assets at a loss, went to cash and parked in a 2% GIC. After I told you that story, lots of comments rolled in supporting the decision.  Proof that fear is the greatest motivator.

Of course since then the Dow has swelled by 5,000 points, or more than 21%. When you add in dividends, US markets have gained almost 30% in 2019. Even Bay Street has roared back. Boring balanced portfolios are fatter by about 13% this year and the millionaire stuck in the GIC has paid a handsome price for getting the willies. The return was $80,000, fully taxable as interest, versus a potential $800,000 profit (tax-efficient) if left in the portfolio.

Now, let’s consider 2019. The bond market produced an inverted yield curve, meaning short-term rates were higher than long ones, suggesting investors saw a recession looming. But that didn’t happen. The Fed dropped the cost of money three times, which Chicken Littles said confirmed we’d have a storm. Nah, nothing. The Brexit crisis roiled. Hong Kong boiled. Wars in Syria and Yemen while Turkey went rogue and the climate change debate became an emergency movement. And Trump, jeez. He ratcheted up the trade wars and said the stock market would crash if he was impeached. Last night it happened. Investors yawned. The market hit a new high.

Huh?

Well, the last guy to get impeached said it best in four words: “It’s the economy, stupid.”  That’s what markets and investors have been seized with, not a political process which won’t remove the president, just sully him. Wall Street (and Bay) believes Trump will be re-elected in November. His expansionist, inflationary, deregulatory and pro-growth, pro-business, more-jobs agenda will continue. No pesky Democrats breaking up Amazon and Apple, forcing social responsibility upon corporations or saddling the economy with trillions in debt forgiveness and new social spending.

Meanwhile the economy is mocking the doomers. American unemployment is the lowest in half a century. Corporate earnings have beat expectations over and again. Three Fed cuts are adding stimulus. Consumer spending and confidence are at record levels, largely thanks to jobs. GDP growth is just fine. China trade tensions are easing and tariffs relaxed. Commodity prices are rising as the global picture brightens. Brexit will get done and stop being an uncertainty, fostering new investment. And Trump will do whatever it takes to get re-elected – using a booming stock market and economic growth as his proxies.

So, here ya go: no market risk from impeachment. Everybody’s had time to absorb this news and get over it. The Senate will not convict. Trump’s staying. For years. Economic growth, employment, corporate earnings, consumer spending – none of these things will be impacted. And although we’re now into the 11th year of recovery and growth after the last downturn, lots more to come.

Will there be more corrections, more wailing?

You bet. Like always. But remember more than 70% of the time markets rise because the world grows. Rarely do corrections of 10% to 20% lead to bear markets. And even when everything hits the fan, recovery’s assured within a relatively short time. The only losers are those who let fear take hold. Emotion is not your friend.

Remember the rules.

About the picture: A highlight of new year is always the latest version of the Vancouver Police Department’s dog calendar. It showcases members of the force’s K9 unit. Order your copy here for fifteen bucks plus shipping. And remember: when barked at, lie prone and still.

 

150 comments ↓

#1 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 12.19.19 at 2:48 pm

In his divinely appointed role as a Great Blessing to the whole world, President Donald J. Trump has been trying to do some truly amazing things that nobody else ever thought were even possible. Even though some people hate him without cause, that very stable genius continues to work tirelessly, virtually day and night, with his unmatched wisdom, to try to help everyone everywhere.

The Donald’s great love for all people everywhere is truly awe inspiring.

Recently, President Trump took some time out of his busy schedule to thoughtfully help some mentally disturbed Swedish teenager who had appeared on the cover of some obscure magazine called Time. He gently encouraged her to work on her obviously serious anger management problem. As an unwitting victim of the Global Warming Villains on the world stage, she was all mixed up and needlessly frightened and continually angry, and doomed to grow up to be full of Regreta. President Trump tried to help this global warming hot-head to chill a bit. Maybe she can learn to relax and watch some old television shows from the 1970s about how a new ice age is coming. A little bit of perpetually positive Trump Twitter Therapy could do wonders for her warped outlook.

Who will the happy smiling face of President Trump shine upon next?

Will Saint Donald be able to work miracles and help cure even wrinkled old meanies like scheming Nasty Pelosi, the ringleader of the Demonrats? Can he tactfully encourage her to go find a large team of highly experienced exorcists to work on overcoming her irrational hatred of the Best President Ever? This, too, seems humanly impossible, but with President Trump there is always hope that the impossible could actually happen. Otherwise, the only logical conclusion that a reasonable person could possibly come to is that Nasty Pelosi’s all-consuming hatred of the Chosen One will consume her own self–chomp, chomp, chomp–until she is totally consumed by her raging hatred, and all gone, except for the BURP!

#2 Overheardyou on 12.19.19 at 3:03 pm

For a new investor, how do you locate/identify quality ETFs? Does the dollar amount held in the ETF equate to quality? Many thanks to any replies!

#3 entalpy on 12.19.19 at 3:23 pm

#2

You’re looking at names like Horizons ETFs, Ishares etc.

#4 Shawn Allen on 12.19.19 at 3:25 pm

Don’t Fear the Trump?

#103 Ronaldo on 12.19.19 at 1:50 pm
#99 Shawn Allen

I fear he may get elected again.
—————————————————————–
I didn’t think you would scare so easily. You seemed much more fearless. Yes, there is a very high probability that he will get elected again. The voters will decide just as they did here in this fine country. I didn’t like the results but that’s the system we live under. What is the alternative?

*************************************
Why fear a Trump re-election? It will likely be good for markets.

But terrible for needed global institutions.

Might be terrible for the environment.

Friend of mine said ten years ago that humans were likely to eventually leave the earth as a “charred husk”. (Picture it!)

Not sure how high the risk of that is but the risk goes up with Trump in office.

The voters surprised most people in 2016. So I am not placing any bets on 2020.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 3:40 pm

@#106 ALL CAPITAL LETTERS

Turn that shed into a restaurant! This bloke turned a small garden shed in London into the #1 rated in dining spot in the city without serving a single meal. Oh yeah, he too, also lived in it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqPARIKHbN8

******

That was brilliant.

#6 Mattl on 12.19.19 at 3:44 pm

Sure the Repubs aren’t spending on social programs but they are 100% stimulating the economy, and the deficits they are running are completely reckless. And of course corporate profits are up, corp tax breaks have been yuge.

I’m by no means a socialist but let’s be real about what is happening in the US. Forecasted 1.1 T deficit in 2020, almost 2010 levels. And these are the GOOD times!

Trump is trading the future for today, there is nothing impressive about running huge deficits to stimulate the economy. This party will end, poorly, and there will be a massive price to pay. I’m surprised the blog host is so impressed by US results considering there was a post this week where he was so against debt and deficit spending in boom times.

#7 Gregory on 12.19.19 at 3:49 pm

Inflation is up? Really? I didn’t even notice.

https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqbAgKImZDQklTUmpvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1Nqa0tFUWl3NjZQY2pvQU1FVkZWUDlLRGltT0ZFaVJEWVc1aFpHbGhiaUJwYm1ac1lYUnBiMjRnYUdsMGN5QXhNQzE1WldGeUlHaHBaMmdvQUFQAQ?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/inflation-canada-november_ca_5dfa4d1ee4b08083dc5d6560

#8 Gregory on 12.19.19 at 3:51 pm

Canadian are handling finances quiet well. Canada not at risk whatsoever.

https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-lessons-learned-from-canadas-mysterious-rise-in-insolvencies

#9 Mr Fundamental on 12.19.19 at 3:52 pm

Just keep buying those sweet, sweet, market-cap weighted equity ETFs. The ones from Vanguard are my favourite, since the MER is < 0.05%.

I'm glad I kept buying all through this year and last. Like Garth says, the best time to buy is when you have the money.

#10 Flop... on 12.19.19 at 3:55 pm

IHCTD9 on 12.19.19 at 12:56 pm

#83 Keith in Rio on 12.19.19 at 10:11 am

… With $700-2000 condo fees, is it any real surprise.
___

Is that even real?

What kind of person willing signs on for a perpetuity of 4 figure condo fees on top of the mortgage!?

I maintain 4 acres and a house as old as Canada for a fraction of that!

///////////////

Hey Trackie, I didn’t know which one to pick as an example, so I just went with a tower with some random dude that I’ve never heard of, that’s got his name on it.

Trump Tower, Vancouver, currently 17 units for sale.

Lowest monthly strata fee…$472.91

Highest monthly strata fee…$1,150.49

Don’t forget the 49 cents.

Cutting into my banana money, that hurts.

Second mortgage for some…

M45BC

#11 G on 12.19.19 at 3:57 pm

I hope the picture is photo shopped? That rope is down hill so if the dog falls…!
At least the climber is tied into edge protects so he can’t fall off.

I hope everyone has a nice x-mas-new years!

#12 kommykim on 12.19.19 at 3:58 pm

RE:#2 Overheardyou on 12.19.19 at 3:03 pm
For a new investor, how do you locate/identify quality ETFs?

======================================

The potato guy has some good examples:
https://canadiancouchpotato.com/model-portfolios/

#13 Crime Minister on 12.19.19 at 4:02 pm

Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, was very unhappy that
the Liberals gained no seats in Saskatchewan or Alberta. In addition,
his support from aboriginal communities was declining rapidly. He
decided to visit a small aboriginal town in Alberta to demonstrate his
support and improve on the Liberal polling numbers. He knew he could
get some wide media exposure if he could provide support the community
in a tangible way.

Upon arriving in the village and after the usual greetings, he
immediately asked what were the most pressing needs.

“We have two basic needs, honourable Sir,” the elder replied.
“Firstly, we have a small hospital, but no doctor.”

“Chief”, he said, “as the Prime Minister of this great country I
will fix that problem right now.” The CBC camera was rolling and
Trudeau whipped out his smartphone and made a call. After speaking
for a while he hung up and told the chief not to worry any longer, a
doctor would be assigned and sent to the village very soon.

Then he asked, “And what is the second problem?”

“…secondly Sir, we desperately need cellphone service because
there is none anywhere in this village.”

#14 James on 12.19.19 at 4:14 pm

#10 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 3:55 pm

IHCTD9 on 12.19.19 at 12:56 pm

#83 Keith in Rio on 12.19.19 at 10:11 am

… With $700-2000 condo fees, is it any real surprise.
___

Is that even real?

What kind of person willing signs on for a perpetuity of 4 figure condo fees on top of the mortgage!?

I maintain 4 acres and a house as old as Canada for a fraction of that!

///////////////

Hey Trackie, I didn’t know which one to pick as an example, so I just went with a tower with some random dude that I’ve never heard of, that’s got his name on it.

Trump Tower, Vancouver, currently 17 units for sale.

Lowest monthly strata fee…$472.91

Highest monthly strata fee…$1,150.49

Don’t forget the 49 cents.

Cutting into my banana money, that hurts.

Second mortgage for some…

M45BC
__________________________________
… With $700-2000 condo fees, is it any real surprise.
NOPE.

#15 Toronto_CA on 12.19.19 at 4:15 pm

I kind of want to rebalance soon after this year. We are overdue a recession; and everything is up so much.

I know it’s never good to try and time the market but…would sell in May work this year? Come back in after the election?

Garth will hate this idea, but what do the dawgs say?

Invest when you have the money. Stop trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. You’re not. – Garth

#16 Adam on 12.19.19 at 4:17 pm

Anybody know what hiking trail the VPD dog is on in the photo?

#17 Ray on 12.19.19 at 4:17 pm

If the republicans vote not to impeach Trump, it will crystalize just how morally corrupt/void this party is. This party impeached Clinton for a the moral weakness in the oval office, but undermining the security of the country for personal gains is a nothing burger. Open demonstration the “Power Corrupts”

#18 the Jaguar on 12.19.19 at 4:25 pm

Pretty sure that police dog is on vacation given the topography in the photo. Bless police dogs and police and fire crews for keeping us safe, especially at this time of year.
Whatever one thinks of Trump or the ‘Trump style of governing’, he has certainly had positive effects on the economy. I also feel a certain grudging respect for him given his steadfastness under the extreme pressure of what appears to be a modern day coup d’etat. With or without the impeachment proceedings he is destined for another victory in 2020. For those who struggle with his popularity and win in 2016 here is a link to a great interview with a respected scholar and intellectual. Highly recommended by the Jaguar. (Interview with author Victor Davis Hanson from May, 2019.) It wasn’t just the ‘deplorables’ who voted him in. Understanding begins with listening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEXL5USuDGI

#19 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 4:34 pm

#15 Toronto_CA on 12.19.19 at 4:15 pm

I kind of want to rebalance soon after this year. We are overdue a recession; and everything is up so much.
I know it’s never good to try and time the market but…would sell in May work this year? Come back in after the election?
Garth will hate this idea, but what do the dawgs say?

Invest when you have the money. Stop trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. You’re not. – Garth

—————————————

Rebalancing does not mean selling then timing your return. First make sure you know what rebalancing means.

If your allocation is out of balance, and it hopefully should be equity-heavy after this fantastic year, then sure, rebalance away. If you can rebalance using cash from dividends without selling anything, even better.

#20 the Jaguar on 12.19.19 at 4:35 pm

P.S. The Progressive Conservative Party of Canada might want to review the video as there are some real clues in the interview,. i.e. ‘why Doug Ford won’. You have the west, now go get Ontario………….

#21 Danforth on 12.19.19 at 4:38 pm

The Senate will never have a chance to convict, since the Articles will never be referred to the Senate for a Trial.

There will be more articles introduced in 2020. They’ll keep the hearings going.

Article 1 and 2 from yesterday are just the start.

#22 Keyboard Smasher on 12.19.19 at 4:44 pm

” American unemployment is the lowest in half a century.”

It isn’t. Just the metrics of reporting unemployment have been manipulated.

95 MILLION Americans do not receive a pay cheque. Labour force participation down to 63%, which is lower than the period 1948-1963 and an era when being a housewife was not ironic:

https://www.thebalance.com/labor-force-participation-rate-formula-and-examples-3305805

America is deeply, deeply troubled, despite some corporate success.

#23 Linda on 12.19.19 at 4:49 pm

Today’s dog pic proof that 4 paws have superior climbing technique.

Not sure what to think of the impeachment. Doesn’t sound like the Republicans will endorse it. If Trump isn’t to be tried & won’t be removed from office, seems like the only thing impeachment will do is show history that his actions were officially censured by a number of politicians during his tenure. Was this meant to shame Trump into behaving better? Doesn’t seem like it will work if that was the intent.

#24 conan on 12.19.19 at 4:54 pm

Donald Trump and the GOP will lose badly in 2020. Willing to bet sprinkles on it.

#25 jess on 12.19.19 at 4:55 pm

“To some, South Dakota is a ‘fly-over’ state,” the chief justice of the state’s supreme court said in a speech to the legislature in January. “While many people may find a way to ‘fly over’ South Dakota, somehow their dollars find a way to land here.”
A decade ago, South Dakotan trust companies held $57.3bn in assets. By the end of 2020, that total will have risen to $355.2bn.

It’s known for being the home of Mount Rushmore – and not much else. But thanks to its relish for deregulation, the state is fast becoming the most profitable place for the mega-wealthy to park their billions.

By Oliver Bullough

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/14/the-great-american-tax-haven-why-the-super-rich-love-south-dakota-trust-laws

———-
freaky
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/19/opinion/location-tracking-cell-phone.html

#26 Keyboard Smasher on 12.19.19 at 4:56 pm

@17 Ray
>but undermining the security of the country for personal gains

Imagine repeating this garbage with a straight face… The Permanent State Security Apparatus, aka the Deep State, is displeased with the civilian-elected President making, get this, INDEPENDENT foreign policy decisions, while being sabotaged at every level by underlings keen on starting a war with Russia.

#27 AGuyInVancouver on 12.19.19 at 5:00 pm

“..Meanwhile the economy is mocking the doomers. American unemployment is the lowest in half a century. Corporate earnings have beat expectations over and again. Three Fed cuts are adding stimulus. Consumer spending and confidence are at record levels, largely thanks to jobs. GDP growth is just fine..”
_ _ _
So where is inflation?

#28 Scott on 12.19.19 at 5:02 pm

Hey Garth, I’m going to take a break from the blog (and more importantly the steerage section) over the holidays. Just wanted to say merry x mas and thanks so much for the free info, opinions and laughs. Make sure Bandit gets plenty of turkey on bird day! All the best :)

#29 Don Guillermo on 12.19.19 at 5:09 pm

#25 jess on 12.19.19 at 4:55 pm
“To some, South Dakota is a ‘fly-over’ state,” the chief justice of the state’s supreme court said in a speech to the legislature in January. “While many people may find a way to ‘fly over’ South Dakota, somehow their dollars find a way to land here.”
A decade ago, South Dakotan trust companies held $57.3bn in assets. By the end of 2020, that total will have risen to $355.2bn.
It’s known for being the home of Mount Rushmore – and not much else. But thanks to its relish for deregulation, the state is fast becoming the most profitable place for the mega-wealthy to park their billions.
By Oliver Bullough
****************************************
Neighbor of mine in “Snowbirdlandia” is from San Francisco and always preaches the hard left AOC/Bernie type philosophies. As soon as he retired he moved all his investment portfolios to South Dakota – he says it’s more tax efficient. He is quite wealthy but still hangs on to his subsidized low rent downtown apartment that he qualified for over 30 years ago. Another “go figure”.

#30 Flop... on 12.19.19 at 5:12 pm

I learnt something about marriage last week.

It was my wedding anniversary, didn’t do much, saving ourselves for our trip to Texas, and I was playing around on the iPad and told my wife that she was overweight.

I was referring to her Euro Fund, but the conversation never developed much further for the full topic to be discussed.

Here I was thinking the worst thing that was gonna happen was Garth Turner calling me on my wedding anniversary for payback when I mistimed a rambunctious call to him.

It was a rough night on the couch.

Maybe Garth did call after all…

M45BC

#31 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 5:13 pm

#24 conan on 12.19.19 at 4:54 pm

Donald Trump and the GOP will lose badly in 2020. Willing to bet sprinkles on it.

———————————-

Sprinkles nothing: $100 to the organization of the other’s choice and you have a wager.

#32 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 5:15 pm

#27 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 5:12 pm

…I was playing around on the iPad and told my wife that she was overweight.

It was a rough night on the couch.

———————————–

Was she sitting on you?

#33 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 5:18 pm

#29 Don Guillermo on 12.19.19 at 5:09 pm
#25 jess on 12.19.19 at 4:55 pm

————————————–
“While many people may find a way to ‘fly over’ South Dakota, somehow their dollars find a way to land here.”

…..the state is fast becoming the most profitable place for the mega-wealthy to park their billions.

****************************************

As soon as he retired he moved all his investment portfolios to South Dakota – he says it’s more tax efficient.

———————————-

South Dakota, huh? Who would’ve guessed?

#34 G on 12.19.19 at 5:18 pm

Hi #17 Ray,
I watched much of the impeachment thing live, and I’m not even American. Weather you like President Trump of not, You might find this informative, but it’s 31min. and there is no press filter.

Senator Mitch McConnell delivers a statement on the House vote to impeach President Trump.(today)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv5vhF77f_I

#35 BC Renovator on 12.19.19 at 5:22 pm

(g) Invest in quality ETFs in the correct weightings, rebalance once or twice a year and ignore whatever the hell the Dow is doing.

My Q would be what are the suggested ETF holdings/balance in the 60% side? Tech, Commodities, VBK, FXI, GDXJ…. there are so many options

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 5:29 pm

@#24 conan
“Donald Trump and the GOP will lose badly in 2020….”
+++++

The Democrats havent even picked a contender yet.
Getting a little late in the game to start from scratch and beat Trump in 11 months.

#37 Flop... on 12.19.19 at 5:31 pm

My buddies over at howmuch placed South Dakota in the number 12 car in this recent article.

Tax friendly, but not top tier tax friendly.

Rev it up…

M45BC

“The Best and Worst States for Taxes in America.

States raise money through a variety of different taxes, fees and charges. They charge different rates for income, property, sales, fuel, wireless services and sins like alcohol and tobacco. This can make it hard to see how states compare to each other.

Wyoming is the most tax-friendly state in the country. It has zero state income tax and on average charges only $635 per $100,000 of property value.

Illinois is the most tax unfriendly state with a flat income tax of 4.95% with on average $2,408 in property taxes owed for every $100,000 of property value.

6 out of the top 10 most tax-friendly states have zero income tax.

Tax levels vary substantially at the state level, with relatively heavy burdens in the Northeast and light tax levels across rural states like Alaska, Montana and North Dakota.

We performed a few different calculations to arrive at the data underlying our spider diagrams. First, we took tax rate information from Kiplinger and found the effective tax rate with a calculator from SmartAsset, using the median U.S. household income of $61,937. We assumed an average worker lived in the state capital with no dependents. Then, we weighted each category of taxation based on their contribution to total state taxes, including taxes on income, sales, fuel, property, wireless services and “sin” taxes like alcohol and tobacco. Finally, we used the summary of the weighted scores to create the ranking of most and least friendly states for taxation.

Top 10 Most Tax-Friendly States

1. Wyoming
2. Delaware
3. Alaska
4. Montana
5. Nevada
6. New Hampshire
7. Florida
8. North Dakota
9. Tennessee
10. Oregon

The 10 Least Friendly States for Taxation

1. Illinois
2. New York
3. New Jersey
4. Connecticut
5. Pennsylvania
6. Nebraska
7. Ohio
8. Kansas
9. Wisconsin
10. Michigan
It shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone that Illinois is the least tax friendly state in the Union. For two years, the state couldn’t pass a budget, costing taxpayers an additional $1 billion in late payments and surcharges. In fact, the state is on track to reach a deficit of $3 billion this year. Illinois taxpayers are therefore on the hook for lots of new taxes and fees.

Another story in our visual is how state income taxes in particular impact the overall tax burden that workers face. 9 states have zero income tax, 6 of which are in our top 10 list above (Wyoming, Alaska, Nevada, New Hampshire, Tennessee and Florida). Income taxes are a major factor in overall taxation because they’re progressive, meaning high-income earners pay higher marginal rates. Florida’s status as an income-tax free state is one reason why many people move to the Sunshine State in retirement.

Our visualization also demonstrates how states levy uneven taxes on workers. The media pays a lot of attention to Trump’s tax cuts and Democrats’ wealth tax proposals, however there are several states in the Northeast with extremely high tax burdens, like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. By contrast, many rural states like Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota have very light tax levels. Congress and the President simply aren’t able to address these disparities.

There are lots of good reasons for different tax rates around the country. New York must raise revenue for infrastructure projects that other states simply don’t have. For example, the Gateway Program encompasses a major overhaul and renovation of the Northeast Corridor train network, which links together millions of people. And there are lots of rich people living in the area who can foot the bill.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/americas-tax-landscape

#38 Gravy Train on 12.19.19 at 5:32 pm

#19 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 4:34 pm
“[…] If you can rebalance using cash from dividends without selling anything, even better.” Don’t you DRIP your dividends? :)

#39 CEW9 on 12.19.19 at 5:35 pm

#2 Overheardyou on 12.19.19 at 3:03 pm

For a new investor, how do you locate/identify quality ETFs? Does the dollar amount held in the ETF equate to quality? Many thanks to any replies!

* * * * * * *

I am not an advisor, and I do nt advise anyone (ever.) But I can tell you what I think about when chosing ETF’s.

1. Market Cap matters to me. (The dollar value of the ETF).

2. Higher daily trading ETFs are, in my opinion, more liquid. I stay away from smaller, obscure stock exchanges.

3. Time in operation matters to me. I like ETFs that have been around a long time that are from large established organizations.

Then, after all that, I look at track record, dividends & MERs. But all that other stuff comes first for me.

I turns out all the ETFs I have are pretty much in the top of the market for all of the above.

Like Buffet said (I think – and extremely paraphrased) “I would rather own a small share of the best stuff than own a complete share of crappy stuff”.

That’s how my own investing philosophy has worked out. But you gotta do what works for you.

#40 Toronto_CA on 12.19.19 at 5:37 pm

#19 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 4:34 pm
#15 Toronto_CA on 12.19.19 at 4:15 pm

I kind of want to rebalance soon after this year. We are overdue a recession; and everything is up so much.
I know it’s never good to try and time the market but…would sell in May work this year? Come back in after the election?
Garth will hate this idea, but what do the dawgs say?

Invest when you have the money. Stop trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. You’re not. – Garth

—————————————

Rebalancing does not mean selling then timing your return. First make sure you know what rebalancing means.

If your allocation is out of balance, and it hopefully should be equity-heavy after this fantastic year, then sure, rebalance away. If you can rebalance using cash from dividends without selling anything, even better.

_______

Obviously by the context of my message I did not mean rebalancing in the sense of the once a year sell the winners buy the losers to get back to the asset split I had when I started (or last rebalanced).

I mean to completely change asset weighting away from equities and into fixed to avoid the inevitable downturn we are over due to have — but as Garth says, trying to time the market is a fool’s game.

Just wondered if any of the Greater Fools were doing it in 2020…

#41 Smartalox on 12.19.19 at 5:37 pm

Trump threatened that the ‘stock markets would crash’ if he were to be impeached, that ‘investors would lose their 401ks (retirement plans)’.

Reality: the day after Trump is impeached the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at a new ALL TIME HIGH.

Just another example of empty threat and poor business acumen from this President.

@Danforth #21: I think that you might be right.

Imagine this: the GOP in the Senate pisses away their credibility by failing to remove Trump on the first two articles of impeachment, in January.

Then, in February after the Supreme court orders the release of Trump’s tax records to the STATE of NY, the evidence contained therein results in additional charges and articles – probably some really politically ugly stuff, like stealing money from the widows and orphans of veterans – and then the GOP has to spend the summer of an election year trying to defend Trump’s record to their electorates. And McConnell is facing a challenge in his district in Kentucky next year!

Talk about leaving ‘nothing but a charred husk’!

#42 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm

If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.

The theater down south should put a chill in the hearts of any and everyone who believes in elected representation. The voters decide, not the impeachers.

If you’re licking your chops at the thought of a fairly elected president being ousted on ridiculous, ahem, trumped-up charges, you might want to move.

Seriously. Venezuela. Cuba. North Korea. Try it out.

Canadistan has had a bad problem with socialists and closet commies for a long, long time. They don’t teach this stuff in school, so I don’t expect many Canucks to even realize it.

But this ignorance doesn’t excuse you. Look in the mirror and ask yourself if the right to vote is the greatest gift we’ve ever had, outside of immunizations I suppose.

If you even hesitate to answer yes, seriously, try living elsewhere for a few years.

We’ll be fine with out y’all.

#43 Ray on 12.19.19 at 5:43 pm

#26 Keyboard Smasher:
Yes,I do believe in the MultiVerse Theory of Quantum Mechanics that suggests all probable out- comes that can occur ,do occur, simultaneously. I am just curious what universe you veered onto?

#44 Travis Smith on 12.19.19 at 5:52 pm

#15 Toronto_CA

Do you even read this blog?

Stay in my friend. Who cares if it goes up/down/sideways/left/right….. You’ll never be able to time the ups. Ever. Stay in

#45 Bob Dog on 12.19.19 at 6:04 pm

Unemployment at an all time low and there is no inflation.

The truth is your corrupt government is lying to you.

#46 Alessio on 12.19.19 at 6:05 pm

Garth, you keep calling it Mr Market. Aside from me saying why not Ms Market; it’s actually not a market at all. Ever since 2008 the Fed has pumped trillions of fake money created at the stroke of a key worth no real tie to value. So it’s not a “real” market anymore. Everything we historically thought is no more. I think that’s why investors are concerned and rightfully so. A 50% crash in bonds and equities can wipe out the past decade of fake gains.

#47 Shirl Clarts on 12.19.19 at 6:09 pm

#23 Linda on 12.19.19 at 4:49 pm
Today’s dog pic proof that 4 paws have superior climbing technique.

Not sure what to think of the impeachment. Doesn’t sound like the Republicans will endorse it. If Trump isn’t to be tried & won’t be removed from office, seems like the only thing impeachment will do is show history that his actions were officially censured by a number of politicians during his tenure. Was this meant to shame Trump into behaving better? Doesn’t seem like it will work if that was the intent.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
They need to play his own game, more specifically find ways to chip away at his approval rating.

Perhaps the Dems need more “Hot Mic” moments of a unsuspecting Trump, say talking trash about his own base.

He can say anything he wants about anyone and get away with it. Except that.

#48 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 6:09 pm

#38 Gravy Train on 12.19.19 at 5:32 pm
#19 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 4:34 pm

“[…] If you can rebalance using cash from dividends without selling anything, even better.” Don’t you DRIP your dividends? :)

————————————

Never. I always make a conscious decision to increase my stake.

And I gain joy from accumulating bags of cash every month.

#49 crazyfox on 12.19.19 at 6:10 pm

Excellent advice once again, Garth. It’s why I come here, I get the guy with the red pen.

Are there systemic imbalances? Real estate bubbles? over indebted public and private spenders? Fiscal nightmares? Trade flops? Nutter leaders who’ve lost their top knots? Sure. Thing is, most of these derailed trains take forever to crash and new fixes come, the next train still leaves the station and that’s the point and when these trains crash, is it the end of the world economy? No it is not.

It’s also human nature to cave into greed and fear, to let emotions rule our noodles and we pay for that. Ask any father. Sometimes we get away with it, we get the eggs. Other times we don’t and we get the shells.

Here’s the thing. As long as the human population continues to grow, humanities sheer numbers will paper over all of our collective worldly blunders… to a point. Overpopulation and over pollution is in itself, a major blunder, likely the greatest of all and its fine riding it to the top because humans, hapless and short sighted though we may be, are industrious. We’ll find ways to fill our needs until we collectively run out of the resources and environments needed to do so and there are only 3 things standing in our way, all things considered, overpopulation, over pollution and resource/environmental depletion to wit, these trains have already left the tracks to some degree but will take forever to crash. Y’know, like, 20 to 30 years. Not to be counted in centuries, but decades with enough karma to collapse the entire world economy and I doubt that we can prevent it because we are consistently too poorly educated and led.

Is this enough reason to not stay invested? It is not. Should money no longer have value, it won’t matter anyway (its true, but then, what value does money truly have if it can’t be spent?). Is it enough to change what we invest in and how we vote and live? Absolutely, without a doubt, hands down for we will be known by our works and judged by what we knew and what are choices were at the time.

I mean, take it from the big man himself. Y’all know the passage, from Revelations 22:11 (end times stuff):

“He that is unrighteous, let him do unrighteousness still: and he that is filthy, let him be made filthy still: and he that is righteous, let him do righteousness still: and he that is holy, let him be made holy still.”

Thanks to Johnny Cash, we now it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9IfHDi-2EA

It’s the rest of it we aren’t so familiar with.

“And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be. 13 I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last. 14 Blessed are they that clean their robes, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city. 15 For (outside) are dogs, and sorcerers, and murderers, and idolaters, and whoever loveth and maketh a lie.”

Now… this blog is hardly a place to revisit Revelations but this last line struck a chord with me. “Lover of lies”. Some might be familiar with this phrase:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lover_of_Lies

Perhaps its tongue in cheek but me thinks the message is much more blunt than that since there aren’t many sorcerers and murderers out there but liars and lovers of lies are, unfortunately, far more common. Two lessons here: Don’t lie or get romantic with them! Also avoid trains where you can, too poorly managed and maintained obviously, the only thing reliable about them is most take forever to crash. (Trump train… if he gets re-elected, he’ll die before finishing a second term and leave a total mess “if” he gets re-elected)

#50 earthboundmisfit on 12.19.19 at 6:14 pm

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the preening, pompous Prince of Papineau asks The Chosen One not to sign a Chinese trade deal until the Michaels are released. Should have thought of that before shooting off his stupid mouth in London. AND, on the same day, tells Vassey K. that frustration in the west doesn’t amount to a unity crisis. We have an utter dolt running this country.

#51 Felix on 12.19.19 at 6:17 pm

All dogs are hereby IMPOOCHED!

You too, Bandit.

#52 Midnights on 12.19.19 at 6:18 pm

#13 Crime Minister on 12.19.19 at 4:02 pm

Lmbo…
That was funny…

#53 BillyBob on 12.19.19 at 6:28 pm

2 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm
If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.

The theater down south should put a chill in the hearts of any and everyone who believes in elected representation. The voters decide, not the impeachers.

If you’re licking your chops at the thought of a fairly elected president being ousted on ridiculous, ahem, trumped-up charges, you might want to move.

Seriously. Venezuela. Cuba. North Korea. Try it out.

Canadistan has had a bad problem with socialists and closet commies for a long, long time. They don’t teach this stuff in school, so I don’t expect many Canucks to even realize it.

But this ignorance doesn’t excuse you. Look in the mirror and ask yourself if the right to vote is the greatest gift we’ve ever had, outside of immunizations I suppose.

If you even hesitate to answer yes, seriously, try living elsewhere for a few years.

We’ll be fine with out y’all.

======================================================

Well said. My sig other and her folks lived through Communism and her grandparents endured the Nazis.

When the Velvet Revolution came in 1989 the first democratic vote in 40 years had a 96% voter turnout.

She watches what’s happening in Canada with the race towards the left (and the embrace of same by certain elements in US politics) and is simply amazed at the stupidity of thinking confiscation/redistribution can work.

It’s like we’ve learned nothing from history.

Trump may be objectionable, but let the people decide. Not other equally deplorable politicians.

#54 Midnights on 12.19.19 at 6:34 pm

Donald Trump and the GOP will lose badly in 2020. Willing to bet sprinkles on it.
I’ll take a second bet on that. And I’m far from a gambler.
I’ll add a zero for 1000.00 of a charity of Garths choice.
Make your move.

#55 kommykim on 12.19.19 at 6:38 pm

RE:#35 BC Renovator on 12.19.19 at 5:22 pm
(g) Invest in quality ETFs in the correct weightings, rebalance once or twice a year and ignore whatever the hell the Dow is doing.

My Q would be what are the suggested ETF holdings/balance in the 60% side? Tech, Commodities, VBK, FXI, GDXJ…. there are so many options

===========================================

Just allocate 40% to a global index fund like VXC or XAW.
Then 20% to a Canadian index like VCN
and the remaining 40% to some fixed income stuff like VSB, ZST, etc.
There is no need to over complicate things by buying a bunch of sector specific ETFs and recreate the index when index funds already exist.
Or just buy a single fund like VBAL or XBAL.

#56 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 6:39 pm

#40 Toronto_CA on 12.19.19 at 5:37 pm
_______
Obviously by the context of my message I did not mean rebalancing in the sense of the once a year sell the winners buy the losers to get back to the asset split I had when I started (or last rebalanced).
I mean to completely change asset weighting away from equities and into fixed to avoid the inevitable downturn we are over due to have — but as Garth says, trying to time the market is a fool’s game.

Just wondered if any of the Greater Fools were doing it in 2020…

———————————-
Not I

#57 kommykim on 12.19.19 at 6:51 pm

RE: #39 CEW9 on 12.19.19 at 5:35 pm
2. Higher daily trading ETFs are, in my opinion, more liquid.

========================================

Sorry, but this is just not true. The underlying securities are what make the ETF liquid.
For example, an ETF that tracks the TSX index is going to be more liquid than one that tracks Canadian preferred shares.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/uncategorized/debunking-the-etf-liquidity-myth/

#58 Joseph R. on 12.19.19 at 6:55 pm

2 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm
If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.”
—————————————————————

Can you explain to us how is Trump’s impeachment related to Marx’s model of history?

#59 Midnights on 12.19.19 at 7:01 pm

#41 Smartalox on 12.19.19 at 5:37 pm

I’ll extend my bet to you also…

#60 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 7:02 pm

#49 crazyfox on 12.19.19 at 6:10 pm

Re: bible stuff

In the bible, god kills directly or has killed in some of the most painful and torturous ways possible about 25 million people (including 20M in the flood).

Satan kills… zero.

Who’s the real baddie here?

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 7:13 pm

@#53 BillyBob

I thought you’d be off on vacation until after Christmas… avoiding the crowded airports til Jan 2nd

#62 AACI Homedog on 12.19.19 at 7:16 pm

Never leave an asset class. Lately I am wishing i left energy/oil stocks a few years ago. Hope it comes back next year.

Not an asset class. – Garth

#63 SoggyShorts on 12.19.19 at 7:16 pm

#6 Mattl on 12.19.19 at 3:44 pm
I’m surprised the blog host is so impressed by US results considering there was a post this week where he was so against debt and deficit spending in boom times.
*******************************
It’s pretty basic, just look at it from more than one perspective.

1. Long-term: are massive spending deficits bad for the future?
-Of course they are.
2. Shorter term: is massive government spending good for your portfolio?
-Of course it is.

There you have it. Yuge spending is good and bad.

That’s certainly where I sit with Trump. As a human being, I find him pretty despicable, but the idea of a Democrat who promises to chop up companies that hold a significant spot in my portfolio scares me more.

For the first time, I’m actually glad I can’t vote in the US as I’m pretty sure I’d do something selfish and kinda gross.

#64 Chaddywack on 12.19.19 at 7:29 pm

You want to know why people like Trump got elected? People like me who think the pendulum has swung too far the other way.

I called CRA today about a tax issue and had a call centre agent who refused to call my wife “she or her” instead using “they or their” even after I corrected the agent.

The agent then began lecturing me on using gender neutral language in my conversation with (her?) and stated that unless my spouse was on the phone and she could “confirm her preferred pronoun” she would not refer to her how I was referring to her…….

Do we now have to confirm our pronouns before talking to someone at the government?

Has anyone else experienced this from the GOC? I get that they are trying to not offend anyone, but they completely offended me in the process especially when I called for tax information and I got a rude lecture and they wouldn’t refer to my wife as a female…..

Our tax (50% marginal rate) dollars at work?

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 7:31 pm

I have to admit I was one of the whiners last Dec when my balanced and diversified portfolio tanked.
But Garth’s advice to “keep calm and chive on” was the understatement of the year end.
I’m uppa uppa uppa into new portfolio heights.

#66 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 7:38 pm

#58 Joseph R. on 12.19.19 at 6:55 pm

2 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm
If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.”
—————————————————————

Can you explain to us how is Trump’s impeachment related to Marx’s model of history?

Touched a nerve, Comrade?

#67 Shawn Allen on 12.19.19 at 8:07 pm

Population Growth at a record in Q3

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191219/dq191219c-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

“International migration—both permanent and temporary—accounted for 83.4% of the total Canadian population growth in the third quarter, a share that continues to increase. The rest of the gain (16.6%) was the result of natural increase, or the difference between the number of births and deaths. The contribution of natural increase is expected to continue on a downward trend, as a result of population aging and of fertility levels remaining low.”

Given that people live longer than ever, the birth rate in Canada must be quite low. Maybe all those enhanced child tax benefits will provide an incentive.

#68 fishman on 12.19.19 at 8:15 pm

Yes Toronto-CA, I’ve been thinking exactly those moves. Sell in May & go away. Why not? Read the Maestro’s well documented & correct advice for a decade then go directly opposite. I mean we are his Greater Fools.
I did a similar move in spring 95. Sold the Van R/E, all my assets except licenses & quotas & converted all to American checking account. Then back in town in the fall had a wack of cash, didn’t pay my income taxes. Started in Oct. hanging around the CU before it opened to get as much U.S. 50’s & 100’s as they’d give me. The old guy up at Lever Arms on 7th & Burrard brought in 980 cases at a 1000 rounds/case of 7.62×39. Good for the cheap little Chinese AK boat gun. Those million rounds went in 9 days at $330/case.
After we won(or lost) I converted back & the whole thing cost me $180. Quebec had been buying $C to keep it from plunging so after the referendum the $C dropped. Who’d have thunk. I got back into some choice west side Van R/E which I still got. Blew the 7.62×39 box offshore on balloons & beer bottles with the gf’s. They’re gone. Things turned out OK though I still pine for the red head dancer.
That American election. I just got that same feeling. The divide, the emotion, the battle lines drawn. I’m not going all in like last time. For one thing its not my country. We’ll see, we got 5 months till May.

#69 BillyBob on 12.19.19 at 8:37 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 7:13 pm
@#53 BillyBob

I thought you’d be off on vacation until after Christmas… avoiding the crowded airports til Jan 2nd.

=====================================

Yep I’ve been off for awhile, until the 28th. Couldn’t quite stretch the days off for the whole month so for New Year’s I bid a SFO 3-day to spend it with an old friend. Did some time in Prague at the beautiful Christmas markets earlier but currently in Canuckistan visiting the parental units and sibs for Christmas.

I guess when you post 20 times a day you can keep track of who’s around eh? ;-)

#70 Linda Tripp on 12.19.19 at 9:01 pm

Dang and I thought I was a whistleblower.

#71 Joseph R on 12.19.19 at 9:09 pm

#66 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 7:38 pm
#58 Joseph R. on 12.19.19 at 6:55 pm

2 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm
If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.”
—————————————————————

Can you explain to us how is Trump’s impeachment related to Marx’s model of history?

Touched a nerve, Comrade?

————————————————————————-

No

#72 Jimer on 12.19.19 at 9:36 pm

Joe and Hunter Biden are not above the law.

#73 tccontrarian on 12.19.19 at 9:45 pm

Of course since then the Dow has swelled by 5,000 points, or more than 21%. When you add in dividends, US markets have gained almost 30% in 2019.

Yet, the Russell 2000 is still down by 4.6% since Sept. 2018 highs. How is the Dow (comprised of 30 companies), more significant than the Russell 2000 (comprised of 2,000 companies)??

Will you ever address this discrepancy Mr. Turner?

In my somewhat humble opinion, the market is ‘setting up’ for a breath-taking plunge to rival 1929-1932. The higher she goes (beyond mean values), the larger the decline – the unwritten rule of markets.

When the GDP rises $1 for every $2 spent in increasing debt, I’d be careful in the conclusion that all’s well. Record-setting market highs are being ‘celebrated’ as the RE industry ‘celebrates’ record-breaking housing prices. How’s that good for the economy?

Just recently, it was noted here that RE valuations at 12-15 times family income was absurd and not necessarily a good thing for the average citizen (only good for the ones already in ownership). Applying the same logic to the stock market, how’s an average P/E valuation of 30 ‘good’ for the average investor (unless assets were bought before the rise)?

I’m not alone in thinking this (but very few are seeing this, I must admit), the sp500/Russell 2000/ Nasdaq are currently offering us an incredible ‘gift’ to short the hell out of them! A 30% rise in 2019 with the current economic climate is normal? Seriously??

Brace yourselves – Santa may be an imposter.

tcc

#74 Who's Got MY Info Greedeau? on 12.19.19 at 9:49 pm

Re: LifeLabs Info breach, I found a comment on CBC that states: “In the lawsuit proceedings we will learn that LifeLabs is owned by three shell companies in the Bahamas. The law offices representing them are located in Panama. Attempts to find any of these offices will turn up mailbox addresses. Good luck getting any money out of this. Or vindication.”
We need confirmation…And has anyone watched the CEO Charlie Brown’s interview, not once did he look directly at the interviewer or the camera, all evasion tactics!!!!!!!
So it appears this company is domiciled in the same place that ALL BC Health (MSP) billing contract was sent in the era of the BC Lieberals of Campbell and Clark (Accenture).

#75 Azashi on 12.19.19 at 9:58 pm

Garth, it’s strange what a Trump fan you are.

You cry wolf until your lungs burst blood vessels at the thought of the Canadian deficit. Yet the US deficit is 50x larger than the Canadian one, and you sing Trump’s praises. Why, he cut taxes! He deregulated stuff! In other words, he’s subsidizing American business with low taxes, huge deductions, and non-existent regulations. Every shady, unethical, environmentally damaging, financially scammy thing an American business does is a subsidy. Because those costs are getting passed directly onto American citizens who pay by being defrauded, having their environment ruined, or having their labour conditions worsened.

It’s always amusing how people’s individual prejudices and beliefs cause them to view everything through a distorted lens. Trump is personally unworthy of being the US president, but markets embrace his business-before-all agenda since it’s in the naked interest of investors. My task here is to guide you to financial security. Whether you get there feeling soiled or morally superior is your problem. – Garth

#76 tccontrarian on 12.19.19 at 10:03 pm

#54 Midnights on 12.19.19 at 6:34 pm

Donald Trump and the GOP will lose badly in 2020. Willing to bet sprinkles on it.
I’ll take a second bet on that. And I’m far from a gambler.
I’ll add a zero for 1000.00 of a charity of Garths choice.
Make your move.
———

My guess on Trump’s re-election possibility:

– If the US Markets (measured by sp500), are down less than 10% by election day, he’ll probably win.
– If they have lost more than 20%, he’s toast.

People tend to vote with their pockets more than their brains. And since more than 45% of either Democrats or Republicans are committed to their party no matter what, it’s less than 10% of the voters that will determine that outcome.

I’d be willing to bet on the SP500 losing >50% in the next downturn (from peak to trough), but not on the election. I only bet $$’s when I feel I’ve got a 99% chance of winning.

tcc

#77 the Jaguar on 12.19.19 at 10:09 pm

Re:#68 fishman on 12.19.19 at 8:15 pm
Most days I read a Fishman blog post and think how amusing it would be to sit at his feet and absorb the stories he might have to impart, but then there is today’s post which reminds me I would only wind up in the trunk of the armour plated 1971 Cadillac Eldorado Coupe with duct tape. Mercy.

#69 BillyBob on 12.19.19 at 8:37 pm
Thank you. As always you perfectly captured my thoughts.

Merry Christmas to you both…………………

#78 Treasure Island CEO - 59,942,485.88 Offshore on 12.19.19 at 10:19 pm

Since when does a recession happen immediately after the yield curve inverts?

It typically signals that one is coming within the next year.

Also, Trump will probably get re-elected, but let’s face it. His biggest threat is whether that recession shows up before or after the election.

Most likely after, at this point. But it is going to be one hell of wild ride keeping the markets going like this past year.

30% growth next year again? Not without a drop where we can measure from the very bottom to make it seem like huge gains are happening.

#79 CEW9 on 12.19.19 at 10:33 pm


RE: #39 CEW9 on 12.19.19 at 5:35 pm
2. Higher daily trading ETFs are, in my opinion, more liquid.
=================================

Sorry, but this is just not true. The underlying securities are what make the ETF liquid.
For example, an ETF that tracks the TSX index is going to be more liquid than one that tracks Canadian preferred shares.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/uncategorized/debunking-the-etf-liquidity-myth/

* * * * *

That’s an interesting article – thanks for leading me to it.

Decent trading volume is still one of the things I look for in picking an ETF, which I guess they are calling ‘primary liquidity’. My main concern is not getting stuck in an ETF when I do not want to be. So a reasonably high daily volume is one of the things I look for.

I’ll concede secondary liquidity is probably vitally important. But I guess I don’t know much about it. (Which is why I do not give advice, but am happy to share what I have thought about).

Thanks again for the article link. A new avenue of information to explore.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 11:14 pm

@#69 billybob
“I guess when you post 20 times a day you can keep track of who’s around eh? ;-)”
++++

Heh, heh.
Even when I’m not posting……I’m watching.

Hey!
How about China’s latest environmental disaster!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-lake-widerimage/fishermen-cry-foul-as-china-bids-to-fix-drought-hit-lake-idUSKBN1YO02H

I cant wait until they own the South China Sea….. lots of endanger species there that they havent strip mined to extinction…..

That’s progress folks!

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.19 at 11:16 pm

@#72 Jimbob
“Joe and Hunter Biden are not above the law.”

*****

but Trump is?

Gotcha.

#82 Blog Bunny on 12.19.19 at 11:54 pm

This year, for the first time, the stock market gains from my portfolio exceeded my employment income. It has been quite a year. And an amazing president. Bunnies love D.J. Trump !!!

#83 Craig Sanderson on 12.20.19 at 12:00 am

I don’t begrudge anyone making 10% to 30% in stock markets or their portfolio but it is on the backs of savers, fixed interest investors. Low interest paid to us but obsessed borrowers paid on highly inflated housing costs, rents, cost of living from food to cars etc.

The only real reason they can keep pumping up equity markets and keep artificially make this party going. We don’t need a high cost lifestyle so we keep our finances cautious and conservative as we are retired accountants.

We have our RRSP’s converted to long term 30 year 3.6% fixed annuity incomes of $4,000 a month and and TFSA’s maxed out worth $165,000 in 7 year 3.5% GIC’s maturing in 2026 DICO guaranteed.

Our C.P.P., OAS combined is $2,900 a month plus we have a $935,000 non-registered provincial bonds 4.65% to 4.75% due 2043 to 2046. We have no debts, a modest house paid off worth $650,000 with no mortgages, line of credit etc. and 1 car 3 years old fully paid, no monthly car payments. The biggest cost in retirement I have seen with many of my friends, neighbours, relatives is monthly debt payments.

A couple of car payments, line of credit payments, credit card payments, some mortgage balance left and I have seen $1,700 to $2,500 a month adds up quickly. What most people don’t look into is $25,000 to $30,000 a year in total debt payments has to be paid in after tax dollars.

This means at a 25% to 40% tax rate, $40,000 to $50,000 a year in annual gross, taxable income has to be earned just to keep their head above water, keep up with debt payments.

We also protected ourselves with a $300,000 life insurance policies and $250,000 healthcare policies each. Our $6,000 a month excess net, after tax income is just fine now but we are looking at REIT’s in the future when interest rates rise somewhat in the future.

#84 SoggyShorts on 12.20.19 at 12:00 am

#46 Alessio on 12.19.19 at 6:05 pm
Garth, you keep calling it Mr Market. Aside from me saying why not Ms Market; it’s actually not a market at all. Ever since 2008 the Fed has pumped trillions of fake money created at the stroke of a key worth no real tie to value. So it’s not a “real” market anymore. Everything we historically thought is no more. I think that’s why investors are concerned and rightfully so. A 50% crash in bonds and equities can wipe out the past decade of fake gains.
****************************
Would it though? The S&P 500 has gone from 1100 to 3200 in the last decade and that doesn’t even account for dividends. But let’s be fairish and say dividends-inflation=0
That means that we’d need about a 66% drop in the S&P500 to “wipe out the past decade of fake gains”

More importantly, why do you think this will happen? What’s the catalyst for such a massive systemic failure of not only the entire stock market, but bonds as well?

#85 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.19 at 12:09 am

#73 tccontrarian on 12.19.19 at 9:45 pm

P/E nowhere near 30

Get a clue

#86 Blog Bunny on 12.20.19 at 12:11 am

#Chaddywack

This never happened to me in real life. This sounds more like an internet horror story out of the ether. I am still getting used to the idea that couples are not always married in this faraway land, which was initially a huge cultural shock for this immigrant Canadian.

My pronoun by the way is Her Royal Highness, and I am trans-human. Half bunny of course. Can I pay half-taxes?

#87 GBiddy on 12.20.19 at 12:27 am

#71 Joseph R on 12.19.19 at 9:09 pm

#66 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 7:38 pm
#58 Joseph R. on 12.19.19 at 6:55 pm

2 GBiddy on 12.19.19 at 5:41 pm
If you find the impeachment process just, and giggle with tingles at the prospect of Trump being sullied or ousted, you, dear sir or madame, are likely a Marxist at heart–and don’t even know it.”
—————————————————————

Can you explain to us how is Trump’s impeachment related to Marx’s model of history?

Touched a nerve, Comrade?

————————————————————————-

No

Ok, you’re either no fun or too smart to take the bait.

I however am neither. So here goes: Marx may have been a great intellect, but as the father of modern communism, he essentially brought into being a political system which, among other great horrors, is precipitated on taking away, outlawing or otherwise preventing universal sufferage.

I equate efforts to overturn elections without letting voters cast ballots with communism (often referred to as Marxism by laymen such as myself). Not academically correct I know, but we’re not pedants here so why split hairs.

As for Marx’s model of history, I’ll let history speak for itself.

#88 Neo on 12.20.19 at 12:58 am

The House of Representatives on Thursday overwhelmingly passed the new North American trade deal, voting in unusually bipartisan fashion just a day after impeaching President Trump strictly on party lines.

Tells you who is really running things. Banks and corporations!

#89 NoName on 12.20.19 at 1:24 am

#17 Ray on 12.19.19 at 4:17 pm
If the republicans vote not to impeach Trump, it will crystalize just how morally corrupt/void this party is. This party impeached Clinton for a the moral weakness in the oval office, but undermining the security of the country for personal gains is a nothing burger. Open demonstration the “Power Corrupts”

It was a repooblican majority senat that let bc keep his job, remember? It was a correct thing to do for the country.
But what do i know…

imp bc vote
https://imgur.com/a/zwQJy3y

Go ahead and ask siri who is sitting president., ok someone already did that.
https://twitter.com/Josearoni10/status/1207887137103917056

#90 Smoking Man on 12.20.19 at 1:58 am

Trump…..

It’s all a set up….. Open your eyes fellow drunks.

The Dems are falling like rocks… On purpose..

The machine is one heck of a lot more powerful beast than I thought….

I’m over 60. Don’t care anymore, my quest is for a slot machine pull that gives me back 1/4 what I’ve spent here…

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics…

#91 NoName on 12.20.19 at 2:05 am

Interesting read, probably won’t work for us, we are to chaotic, more like anti-zen family…


It combines budgeting and mindfulness, a sort of zen savings tracker helping you to achieve financial wellbeing.

https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/kekeibo-how-the-japanese-art-of-budgeting-can-help-you-save-money

#92 Nonplused on 12.20.19 at 2:31 am

Ok, but we have to take a step back here folks. Trump has not been impeached. Only the senate can impeach the president. Instead what has happened is the house has voted to approve articles of impeachment and move them forward to the senate.

Trump, for his part, has said “bring it on!” He knows in the senate he will get to do several things he could not do in the house, including calling and cross-examining witnesses, providing testimony and argument, and getting himself on CNN even more. He also knows there is no case against him that will pass a Republican majority senate (if there are actually any crimes he committed, which seems dubious at best. The worst problems with the impeachment articles is that there are no direct witnesses and the case rests entirely on what hearsay witnesses thought Trump’s intentions were. In other words mind reading by clairvoyants that weren’t in the room. The Salem witch trials were the last of that in North America.)

So nothing changed yesterday. Trump is still the president and he has not been removed. Nor is it likely he will be. The senate will have to have their own trial and vote on impeachment. Until that happens this is all more fake news from CNN and the like. As of today, nothing has changed one iota.

This, my friends, is why there are 3 branches of government, and congress is indeed split into 2 sort of giving 4. It is to prevent a rouge branch of government from, well, going rouge.

In Canada our system works differently but we sort of have different branches of government. We have a senate, and we have a supreme court. The way we elect our prime minister is kind of crap but it is what it is. In theory we also have a monarch but I am not sure how much power the monarch still has in the event that SHTF. We don’t need to impeach a prime minister, all he/she has to do is lose one vote in parliament and it’s back to the polls. That is probably going to happen in the next 2 years.

So Trump is still riding high. He will probably be in power another 5 years. Trudeau, on the other hand, should probably be making retirement plans. It is the government (and indeed unity) of Canada that is on shaky ground, not that of the US.

And now Pelosi and others are suggesting that they may not even move the articles of impeachment to the senate. She is on record as not wanting to proceed in the first place for 2 years, because she new it would be a hard row to hoe. She had no choice ultimately, but sadly this whole affair is likely to decimate the Democratic party. She was wise enough to see that 2 years ago. But as is always the case, politicians regularly vote for things they don’t understand. Polosi was overwhelmed by the squad.

And now we have the report on FISA abuses. That, of course, hasn’t been getting a lot of coverage. Could it be that impeachment was just a big distraction? Remember folks, Trump said he was going to “drain the swamp”. But he never did say exactly how. Sometimes the best way to handle a thing like this is give someone enough rope to hang themselves. That appears to be exactly what is happening to the Democrats, the FBI, and the CIA. Target number 4 will be the Pentagon and the endless wars.

The only real surprise I could see here in the next few years is if Trump gets assassinated. But he is one of the few presidents that has been able to afford his own security detail in addition to that provided by the secret service. I think it unlikely without a hell of a gunfight that the CIA just won’t risk because it would expose too much.

#93 Swamp Monster on 12.20.19 at 4:38 am

BANNED

#94 Re-Cowtown on 12.20.19 at 7:19 am

Democrats are so clueless they can’t even pull off a fake impeachement properly. According to the US constitution, the impeachment isn’t real until Pelosi delivers the papers to the Senate.

So the CNN second-coming headline “TRUMP IMPEACHED” is actually……yep… fake news. It never happened. Hilarious!!!!!

Think about it this way; it’s like someone being sued; you can draw up all the papers you want, gnash your teeth and make noise, but until you actually serve the papers, it’s much ado about nothing.

What a bunch of losers.

#95 crazyfox on 12.20.19 at 8:09 am

#60 Sail away on 12.19.19 at 7:02 pm

Lets not forget Sodomy and Gomorrah, ghosted them too. And then there were those golden calf worshippers that got 86’d, didn’t end well for them. As for Satan, that cat hangs with a rough crowd. They’re so bad, they don’t even end up in the histories but they’ll merc a guy just the same. Comin’ in loud and proud without protection, that’s how one goes down. Best advice is be humble, fly straight, shoot straight, give credit where due, don’t offend (swallowing hard), keep our wood to ourselves and watch what we put in our mouths and maybe… just maybe we might just die of natural causes (if climate change doesn’t get us first).

Man, it’s a jungle out there (don’t feed them, strong caution).

#54 Midnights on 12.19.19 at 6:34 pm

Me thinks Mr. market is biased towards Trump and missing the obvious. Trump is a fiscal flop that’s bought what looks like a good economy entirely with all borrowed money. Federal debt (at least 5% of GDP) is doubling economic growth and that’s without counting state and municipal debt. At some point the dollar will get hammered for this (you know, make more but you are worth less, simple math) especially if Trump gets re-elected (I know, I know, its a slow moving train wreck so its next to impossible to predict when) but what Mr. market is really missing is Trump is just too unfit to be president (plus he’s fake) and at least half of Americans (the bright half) know it well. The Senate has 33 seats up for re-election, 23 of them Republican:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections

Watching how 2018 played out along with 2019 elections, Senate Republican seats that have less than +10 PVI are in trouble. (I count 9) Dems recently had a Governor elected in Kentucky. Trump carried the state by 30 points in 2016 but the guy was a total chump. A quick news search on his parting pardon choices tells why and sets a bad tone for the brand going into 2020:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/20/matt-bevin-micah-schoettle-child-rapist-hymen-intact-pardon/

I predict Republican palpable old Joe wins the Dem nomination and smokes Trump. Dems win the Senate and add seats to congress, to many voters are energized and want this circus to end. I think the Arctic will decide how big the Dems spend from there specific to climate change for good reason. (won’t have long to wait. 2021 is first ice free summer and everything changes quickly from there)

If I’m right, I would also like a nice young healthy brown pony with a year of free hay…. (not 3 and 4 year stuff but first year first cut ;) and a gold star… and a red ribbon with sprinkles… and a plaque with my name on it with some fluff on how good a guesser I am! I would also like a Tesla truck AWD… and (inaudible :)

#96 n1tro on 12.20.19 at 8:18 am

#30 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 5:12 pm
I learnt something about marriage last week.

It was my wedding anniversary, didn’t do much, saving ourselves for our trip to Texas, and I was playing around on the iPad and told my wife that she was overweight.

I was referring to her Euro Fund, but the conversation never developed much further for the full topic to be discussed.

It was a rough night on the couch.
—————
Why the couch unless there is truth the the statement?

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 8:26 am

#10 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 3:55 pm

Hey Trackie, I didn’t know which one to pick as an example, so I just went with a tower with some random dude that I’ve never heard of, that’s got his name on it.

Trump Tower, Vancouver, currently 17 units for sale.

Lowest monthly strata fee…$472.91

Highest monthly strata fee…$1,150.49

Don’t forget the 49 cents.

Cutting into my banana money, that hurts.

Second mortgage for some…

M45BC
___

Hey Flopster – my mortgage payment back in 01 was 1200.00/mo. when rates were 6.4%. I could never shovel out 4 figures/mo. for “maintenance” on a condo.

I figure I’ve got between 35-40K in improving and maintaining my place. Throw in someone else’s labour costs and call it 80K. Hell, throw in another 20K as fudge to make in 100K over 18.5 years.

That’s still only 450.00/month to maintain 1500sf and 4 acres!

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.19 at 8:31 am

@#94 Re Cowtown
“headline “TRUMP IMPEACHED” is actually……yep… fake news. It never happened.”
++++

Trump was Impeached.
But in the legal/political context of US politics.

“Impeached” means he’s just been charged….. not convicted.
Smoke and mirrors.
Because the Republican majority senate wont convict him.
A huge waste of time.
But the mud slinging throughout his senate trial will be amusing to watch.
Those glaring CNN headlines do sell advertisements …dont they.

#99 Incubus on 12.20.19 at 8:41 am

“Wall Street (and Bay) believes Trump will be re-elected in November.”

I agree with them.

The Democrats are so ridiculous and have become a party of radical left.

#100 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.20.19 at 8:46 am

[email protected] sez:

“So nothing changed yesterday. Trump is still the president and he has not been removed.”
———————————————-
My understanding is that an impeached President cannot make any appointments to the Supreme Court. With Ruth Bader Ginsberg in extremely poor health, the Dems are afraid she will pass and Trump will appoint another “Conservative” Justice and that will tip the balance of the Court.

This is Pelosi’s strategy to avoid that but I don’t think putting off sending the articles of Impeachment indefinitely will have any legal standing.

#101 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 9:13 am

#107 Your buddy on 12.19.19 at 3:03 pm

Your Toronto bashing is truly comical. Like you would know how the vast majority in GTA are living, living as you do in the hinterland. Anyone who bought in the GTA in the past 20 years has made a killing in real estate. In the past year, three boomer buddies of mine have cashed out in the GTA and pocketed way north of a million on their principal residences and have bought elsewhere in the province. I know immigrants in their 80s living in parts of downtown Toronto that will leave homes in their estates worth north of $2 million to their lucky descendants. My better half is going to come into that amount in the next couple of years. And we are already millionaires…
____

Yes Boomers and early Gen X’ers made out like bandits if they bought GTA RE a couple decades ago.

Millennials will not. The RE ship has sailed, those that held a ticket won, those that do not yet can probably expect to go sideways for decades (at best).

Millennials/youth in the GTA get to make bank by working. No house lotto for them. Most do not make 300K – all you need to do is look at the Toronto Median Household Incomes to see this.

Houses now cost way more than your typical Torontonian can afford, this is well understood; and has been debated and moaned about for a decade already.

It’s not bashing, it’s just facts mang…

#102 Re-Cowtown on 12.20.19 at 9:18 am

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.19 at 8:31 am
@#94 Re Cowtown
“headline “TRUMP IMPEACHED” is actually……yep… fake news. It never happened.”
++++

Trump was Impeached.
But in the legal/political context of US politics.

“Impeached” means he’s just been charged….. not convicted.
Smoke and mirrors.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No… he actually hasn’t even been charged. Until the Senate gets the paperwork, all that’s happened is the House has had a vote on something; no charges have even been filed.

The distinction is YUUUGE as once someone is formally charged, they have the right to respond.

And Nervous Nancy wants to deny the Trumpster the right to respond. Stalin would be proud of Nancy of the depths of her skullduggery. The Dems have dug themselves into a political hole right to the seventh Circle of Hell. Amazing!!

The pundits don’t see a distinction but lawyers do. That’s why Nervous Nancy decided to sit on the “Orange Man Bad ShamWow!peachment”. She’s counting on everyone being stupid and not understanding that nothing actually happened.

Mo’ popcorn please! This is the best show ever!

#103 Dharma Bum on 12.20.19 at 9:24 am

#84 Soggy Shorts

What’s the catalyst for such a massive systemic failure of not only the entire stock market, but bonds as well?
——————————————————————–
Well, let’s see now… there’s:
Climate change hysteria
Improper gender pronouns
The wage gap
Patriarchal hierarchies
AI
Twitter
Fake News
Tribalism
Identity politics
Virtue Signalling
White guilt
Political correctness obsession
Doxing
Intersectionality
Antifa
Men are not women…or is it women are not men…or
Milo Yiannopoulos
Data mining
Human brain hacking
Nationalism
Mass poverty
Electric cars
Beyond meat
Vegans
Ministry of Middle Class Prosperity
Aging hipsters
Vape culture
Drake
Culture wars
Unfettered narcissism
Astoundingly rampant ignorance
You Tube
Anti-aging fanaticism
Tiny houses
HGTV
SJWs
Lip enhancement
Universal Basic Income
Scooters
Safe spaces
Woke
MeToo
Deplatforming
Cultural appropriation
Gender assigning
Microaggression
Transethnicism
Ubiquitous victim mentality

#104 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 9:28 am

#96 n1tro on 12.20.19 at 8:18 am
#30 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 5:12 pm

It was a rough night on the couch.
—————
Why the couch unless there is truth the the statement?
___

Walk up to your non-fat, in perfectly good shape wife; and tell her that she is getting a little chubby.

See what happens :).

#105 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 9:42 am

#100 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.20.19 at 8:46 am
[email protected] sez:

“So nothing changed yesterday. Trump is still the president and he has not been removed.”
———————————————-
My understanding is that an impeached President cannot make any appointments to the Supreme Court.
———————————————————–
There may be a better unqualified US constitutional authority here but my understanding is that there is no impact on presidential powers, including appointments with an impeachment at this point – it means a blot on the historical record (at least as considered by most sane people) but a senate trial is required to establish guilt or not and set penalties…

The delay is more likely a psy-ops move to see what else shakes out given the defacto jury foreman has announced he’s coordinating with the defendant pre-trial… And no, there’s no statute of limitations, its not a shoplifting charge…

#106 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 9:43 am

How do you know Trump will win in 2020?

Because “hick-hop” exists and gets tens of millions of views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ikxnz2NIdxI

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.19 at 9:46 am

@#102 Re- Cowtown
“No… he actually hasn’t even been charged. Until the Senate gets the paperwork, all that’s happened is the House has had a vote on something; no charges have even been filed.”
++++++

Po-TAY to.
Po- TAH – to

The impeachment is a done deal, the vote’s been held.
The process is under way.
The only person on the planet that doesnt think he’s facing impeachment is…..you.
Too many anabolic steroids in the Alberta Grain fed beef?
Or are you just naturally stubborn?

#108 ts on 12.20.19 at 9:59 am

RE#8 Gregory on 12.19.19 at 3:51 pm

Hmmm.. Where have I hear this story before? Canadians using their homes like ATM’s. What could possibly go wrong?

#109 Mattl on 12.20.19 at 9:59 am

#63 SoggyShorts on 12.19.19 at 7:16 pm
#6 Mattl on 12.19.19 at 3:44 pm
I’m surprised the blog host is so impressed by US results considering there was a post this week where he was so against debt and deficit spending in boom times.
*******************************
It’s pretty basic, just look at it from more than one perspective.

1. Long-term: are massive spending deficits bad for the future?
-Of course they are.
2. Shorter term: is massive government spending good for your portfolio?
-Of course it is.

There you have it. Yuge spending is good and bad.

That’s certainly where I sit with Trump. As a human being, I find him pretty despicable, but the idea of a Democrat who promises to chop up companies that hold a significant spot in my portfolio scares me more.

For the first time, I’m actually glad I can’t vote in the US as I’m pretty sure I’d do something selfish and kinda gross.

————————————————————–

Oh I hear ya. I am up 16.4% net fees this year. Love the growth. But there will be a price to pay, and if debt 30B deficits are a problem in Canada the 1.1T deficits are a real problem in the USA. Their economy is 12x the size but they are running 30x the deficit.

There will be a price to pay for all this debt.

#110 SunDays on 12.20.19 at 10:08 am

#83 Craig Sanderson on 12.20.19 at 12:00 am
I don’t begrudge anyone making 10% to 30% in stock markets or their portfolio but it is on the backs of savers, fixed interest investors.
—————————–
Nope. Not savers. We, the investors, are getting rich on the backs of Canadian companies’ workers by suppressing their wages. The resulting profits are used for share-buybacks and for paying out dividends.

Fixed interest investors are being defrauded by the Gov’t via financial repression.

#111 In Garth We Trust on 12.20.19 at 10:09 am

“It’s always amusing how people’s individual prejudices and beliefs cause them to view everything through a distorted lens. Trump is personally unworthy of being the US president, but markets embrace his business-before-all agenda since it’s in the naked interest of investors. My task here is to guide you to financial security. Whether you get there feeling soiled or morally superior is your problem. – Garth”

There has to be another book for you Sir Garth. You can’t leave this earthly plane without giving us another book. Any plans to put the sagacious views you have shared on this blog this past decade into a book?

#112 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 10:19 am

So, the impeachment has been approved by the House, but the leader is withholding the next step?

Wasn’t Trump’s withholding the cash to Ukraine the beginning of this farce?

Are the Democrats actually doing any governing at all anymore?

So many questions…

#113 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:20 am

#103 Dharma Bum on 12.20.19 at 9:24 am
#84 Soggy Shorts

What’s the catalyst for such a massive systemic failure of not only the entire stock market, but bonds as well?
——————————————————————–
Well, let’s see now… there’s:
————————————–
Wow, props, you need to really do an updated cover of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46EsZR8b7x8

or maybe a darker version of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGxjIBEZvx0

#114 Keith in Rio on 12.20.19 at 10:22 am

Sail Away……

In the previous thread, you asked me for the business case for investing in foreign real estate.

It’s dirt cheap compared to NA, much cheaper to buy than rent down here, but, I don’t need a business case to buy a place where I am going to live the rest of my life.

I’m married to a Brasilian, speak the language now, and have permanent residency. The way I see it, if I am going to live in a third world country, which Canada is rapidly becoming, I’d prefer to be in Brasil. We’ve got a beach within walking distance and it’s 25-50 degrees every day.

The rest of the negatives people read on the internet about leaving Kanaduh, only exist in fertile imaginations or are easily manageable.

#115 Capt. Serious on 12.20.19 at 10:33 am

2019 has been a remarkable year for investing. You literally could not lose money anywhere. Very rare. We’ll see what the future brings, but for sure missing 2019 would really mess up your 10 year returns. Nobody knows what’s going to happen, so staying the course + your savings rate are the most important things you can do to achieve your financial goals.

#116 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:35 am

#110 SunDays on 12.20.19 at 10:08 am

Nope. Not savers. We, the investors, are getting rich on the backs of Canadian companies’ workers by suppressing their wages. The resulting profits are used for share-buybacks and for paying out dividends.
———————————————
Jeez, don’t you read anything in terms of advice here? A B&D portfolio means its not just Canadian…

#117 n1tro on 12.20.19 at 10:36 am

#104 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 9:28 am
#96 n1tro on 12.20.19 at 8:18 am
#30 Flop… on 12.19.19 at 5:12 pm

It was a rough night on the couch.
—————
Why the couch unless there is truth to the statement?
___

Walk up to your non-fat, in perfectly good shape wife; and tell her that she is getting a little chubby.

See what happens :).
————
I do it all the time. Keeps her ego in check and let’s me eat more leftovers :P

#118 Uncle Rudolph on 12.20.19 at 10:44 am

The evil “World Governor” Marc Carney gets bounced.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bailey-succeeds-carney-as-boe-head-in-post-brexit-transition-1.1365271

Let’s pray he hasn’t crawled up Trudeau’s ass.

And Garth, this isn’t for anyone but you. Merry Christmas.

#119 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:48 am

#112 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 10:19 am
So, the impeachment has been approved by the House, but the leader is withholding the next step?

Wasn’t Trump’s withholding the cash to Ukraine the beginning of this farce?

Are the Democrats actually doing any governing at all anymore?

So many questions…
—————————————————-
No, the beginning was an ASK for dirt on Biden & Son from a foreign power to influence a US election, the withholding the cash, actually military aid to keep the Russians at bay, was the LEVERAGE to make it happen… Its all covered in the perfect transcript…

#120 Shawn Allen on 12.20.19 at 10:51 am

Savers are Saviors

#83 Craig Sanderson on 12.20.19 at 12:00 am said:

I don’t begrudge anyone making 10% to 30% in stock markets or their portfolio but it is on the backs of savers, fixed interest investors.

*************************************
Yes, and as an equity investor, I thank very much the savers who accept low rates like 2% so that interest rates can stay low and equity markets soar.

let’s not forget equity investors also make it “on the backs of” consumers and low wage workers. We must thank them all also.

#121 Shawn Allen on 12.20.19 at 10:55 am

Impeached means?

It’s pretty clear from the comments above that there is a lot of confusion over the meaning of “impeached”.

It seems to me to mean charged (and not yet convicted).

CNN is making it out to be a lot more than that. Maybe they could take just a couple a minutes away from their constant never-ending Trump bashing to simply explain the meaning and origins of the word.

I”m no Trump fan but the bias of CNN is obvious.

But then FOX is no better with its pro Trump bias.

#122 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 11:00 am

#114 Keith in Rio on 12.20.19 at 10:22 am

Sail Away……

In the previous thread, you asked me for the business case for investing in foreign real estate.

It’s dirt cheap compared to NA, much cheaper to buy than rent down here, but, I don’t need a business case to buy a place where I am going to live the rest of my life.

I’m married to a Brasilian, speak the language now, and have permanent residency. The way I see it, if I am going to live in a third world country, which Canada is rapidly becoming, I’d prefer to be in Brasil. We’ve got a beach within walking distance and it’s 25-50 degrees every day.

The rest of the negatives people read on the internet about leaving Kanaduh, only exist in fertile imaginations or are easily manageable.

——————————–

Thanks, Keith, that makes sense.

Any recommendations for long-term, 1-2 month rentals in your area? Maybe the condo you’re vacating?

#123 MF on 12.20.19 at 11:11 am

114 Keith in Rio on 12.20.19

Lol more evidence our expat community is mentally unstable.

I’m sure Brazil has no negatives at all online eh??

Hey “Keith”, no one cares one bit about you or your worthless story. If anything sounds like we are better with you gone.

MF

#124 Phylis on 12.20.19 at 11:16 am

Is nancy obstructing justice by not serving the papers to the senate? Where is the justice?

#125 MF on 12.20.19 at 11:29 am

101 IHCTD9 on 12.20.19 at 9:13

Ummm “Working”, like you say, is actually hugely important.

There’s a relationship between the availability of jobs and the price of real estate.

Toronto has all the jobs. This is why millennials choose it over some small town that does not offer the same opportunity. That’s why people from all over the world come here, too.

Your idea is that every millennial here lives hand to mouth is from 10 years ago and dated.

MF

#126 Damifino on 12.20.19 at 11:37 am

The S&P 500 is up over half a percent this morning. That impeachment thing is working out well. We know markets love certainty. Another four years of Trump, for example.

#127 SoggyShorts on 12.20.19 at 12:13 pm

#103 Dharma Bum on 12.20.19 at 9:24 am
#84 Soggy Shorts

What’s the catalyst for such a massive systemic failure of not only the entire stock market, but bonds as well?
——————————————————————–
Well, let’s see now… there’s:
[massive list]

********************
Lol well done!
If none of those things existed and then suddenly they all did, a 66% drop seems reasonable. The crazy thing is they already do and the market doesn’t care at all.

#128 Sail away on 12.20.19 at 12:14 pm

#123 MF on 12.20.19 at 11:11 am
114 Keith in Rio on 12.20.19

——————————————–
Lol more evidence our expat community is mentally unstable.
I’m sure Brazil has no negatives at all online eh??

Hey “Keith”, no one cares one bit about you or your worthless story. If anything sounds like we are better with you gone.
MF

———————————————-

Wow, fiery today, MF… and Keith didn’t even denigrate The Centre of the Universe. Cold in Toronto today, isn’t it?

I care about Keith and his story and feel a bit affronted by your unwarranted attack. So angry.

#129 shrimpBoat on 12.20.19 at 12:19 pm

democracy won’t be impeached yet, it is not time yet. They will have to continue to dig and fabricate stories in their pursuit of power. Once again, they have nothing. globalism is coming but not yet. and they may not have enough illegals to defeat Trump next election either.

#130 kommykim on 12.20.19 at 12:27 pm

RE:#126 Damifino on 12.20.19 at 11:37 am
The S&P 500 is up over half a percent this morning. That impeachment thing is working out well. We know markets love certainty. Another four years of Trump, for example.

========================================

But it was Trump who said that the sock rocket would crash if he was impeached….

#131 Sail away on 12.20.19 at 12:32 pm

#119 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:48 am
#112 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 10:19 am

So many questions…
—————————————————-
No, the beginning was an ASK for dirt on Biden & Son from a foreign power to influence a US election, the withholding the cash, actually military aid to keep the Russians at bay, was the LEVERAGE to make it happen… Its all covered in the perfect transcript…

————————————

Ok, thanks. I honestly haven’t been paying too much attention, being that it’s all happening in another country.

In a different country, the Ethio-Djibouti Railway shortened their travel time. It looks like some other countries might events as well.

#132 Gravy Train on 12.20.19 at 12:52 pm

What would you call an (IM)peached (P)resident (O)f (T)he (U)nited (S)tates? #IMPOTUS

(I stole that joke from George Conway, the husband of counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway.)

#133 Re-Cowtown on 12.20.19 at 12:52 pm

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.19 at 9:46 am
@#102 Re- Cowtown
“No… he actually hasn’t even been charged. Until the Senate gets the paperwork, all that’s happened is the House has had a vote on something; no charges have even been filed.”
++++++

Po-TAY to.
Po- TAH – to

The impeachment is a done deal, the vote’s been held.
The process is under way.
The only person on the planet that doesnt think he’s facing impeachment is…..you.
Too many anabolic steroids in the Alberta Grain fed beef?
Or are you just naturally stubborn?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually, it was one of the Democrats own law prof “star witnesses” who said that Trump hasn’t been impeached yet. Ironic, eh?

Time to face facts, Democrats have painted themselves into the most ridiculous situation possible. You can’t even make this up.

To paraphrase Woody Allen: “The Democrats have reached a fork in the road. One path leads to their own complete humiliation and rejection. The other leads their own total destruction. I pray that they have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

Popcorn time!

#134 Re-Cowtown on 12.20.19 at 12:58 pm

#119 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:48 am
#112 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 10:19 am
So, the impeachment has been approved by the House, but the leader is withholding the next step?

Wasn’t Trump’s withholding the cash to Ukraine the beginning of this farce?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Ukraine thingy was the Democrats last kick at the cat, timing wise. They needed something, anything, that they could throw at Trump to fit their timeline constraints of the democrat primaries and the election.

If Trump would have said he hated blue skittles on July 25th the impeachemnt would have been about Trump’s racist hatred of Smurfs.

#135 Damifino on 12.20.19 at 1:45 pm

#130 kommykim
RE:#126 Damifino

The S&P 500 is up over half a percent this morning. That impeachment thing is working out well. We know markets love certainty. Another four years of Trump, for example.
—————————-
But it was Trump who said that the sock rocket would crash if he was impeached….
—————————-

The man is simply a genius at reverse psychology.

#136 whiplash on 12.20.19 at 1:53 pm

The house can’t impeach, they can only vote for impeachment. There has to be one or two things happen:

a trial in the senate or the supreme court or both and a vote has to be taken by either both party’s to remove Trump from office.

As usual the idiots at CNN etc. didn’t get the memo!!

#137 Flop... on 12.20.19 at 2:19 pm

I feel like Garth explaining his cheques for free joke.

He cleaned out some of the racists, who knows, next year he could go after people with no sense of humour.

Wife is a year older than me.

In good shape, has the dark hair and dark skin thing happening.

I think Justin Trudeau might have dressed up as her once.

Goes to the gym regularly and likes spicy food and coffee which probably helps with weight.

Besides this blog, she is the love of my life…

M45BC

#138 Midnights on 12.20.19 at 2:23 pm

Dog Hit By Car Undergoes Surgery After Brother Stays By His Side Waiting For Help

https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2019/12/19/dog-hit-by-car-undergoes-surgery-after-brother-stays-by-his-side-waiting-for-help/

#139 Jimer on 12.20.19 at 2:37 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz

Trump had ‘probable cause’ (ie. Biden’s CFR Quid Pro Quo brag video) and as chief law enforcement officer it is Trump’s Constitutional duty to The People to investigate the Bidens.

#140 SunDays on 12.20.19 at 3:04 pm

#116 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 10:35 am
Jeez, don’t you read anything in terms of advice here? A B&D portfolio means its not just Canadian…
————————–
What advice? Investing is simple. Just don’t lose money. You are welcome.

I come here for the aesthetic experience of the narrative.

#141 Linda on 12.20.19 at 3:12 pm

#47 ‘Shirl’ – don’t know about ‘hot mic moments’ but found it interesting that an influential evangelical magazine published an editorial that apparently endorses the impeachment. Were I the Trump re-election team I’d be very concerned.

#142 MF on 12.20.19 at 3:16 pm

128 Sail away on 12.20.19 at 12

Meh tired of hearing all these complaints: millennials, Gen x, boomers, this religion, that religion, this country, that country, taxes, debt etc.

Everywhere humans are is crap. I argue Canada is less crap than the rest.

MF

#143 Remembrancer on 12.20.19 at 3:33 pm

#134 Re-Cowtown on 12.20.19 at 12:58 pm
If Trump would have said he hated blue skittles on July 25th the impeachemnt would have been about Trump’s racist hatred of Smurfs.
———————————–
If he was holding up the anti-Gargamel tank skittle launchers to get dirt on Biden from Poppa Smurf then sure, that comparison works great…

#144 Sail Away on 12.20.19 at 3:51 pm

#137 Flop… on 12.20.19 at 2:19 pm

I feel like Garth explaining his cheques for free joke.

He cleaned out some of the racists, who knows, next year he could go after people with no sense of humour.

——————————————

Aw, Flop. It’s nice to have you around when you’re not insulting the other blogdogs.

#145 Overheardyou on 12.20.19 at 3:53 pm

Thank you #3, #12, #39!

#146 Jimer on 12.20.19 at 6:49 pm

#94 Re-Cowtown

My understanding is the main issue is the Senate can conduct no other business and pass no bills, if they have received Articles of Impeachment. As such without delivering Articles to the Senate the House vote is another Dem nothing-burger.

#147 Keirh in Calgary on 12.20.19 at 8:10 pm

MF……

My accountant figures I’ll be legally depriving the bolshevik dictator of Kanaduh of about $1MM of income taxes over the next 20 years.

Revenge is sweet indeed. Enjoy your fiscal prison in debt land.

Oh, I forgot to say, It hit +30 today with 90% humidity. Kinda cold for this time of year…….heh.

Sail Away……

Try http://www.zap.com.br to search RE sales and rentals down here. “Aparthotels” is what you’d be looking for.

#148 Keith in Rio on 12.20.19 at 8:11 pm

Garth, you really need a bulletin board interface with an EDIT POST feature.

#149 Sail away on 12.20.19 at 9:17 pm

#147 Keirh in Calgary on 12.20.19 at 8:10 pm

Sail Away……
Try http://www.zap.com.br to search RE sales and rentals down here. “Aparthotels” is what you’d be looking for.

———————————

Thanks!

#150 Jimer on 12.20.19 at 11:59 pm

OAN has obtained exclusive interview with fired Ukrainian prosecutor, looks like Joe Biden, John McCain and Lindsey Graham are in the Ukrainian cross-hairs.