Trust

 

It’s a weird Canadian thing. Everybody – buyers, politicians, moms – complains bitterly about houses people can’t afford. But we call markets where sales are brisk and prices rising, ‘healthy’ and ‘robust.’ We say places where real estate is getting cheaper are ‘in distress,’ ‘depressed’ or ‘struggling.’

So are lower prices and less debt a positive or a negative? Have we allowed the Real Estate Industrial Complex to set the agenda? When realtors are making big money on commissions and frequent deals is that a good thing for society? Given the fact we have $1.7 trillion in mortgage debt (a record), a savings rate of less than 1% (almost a record) and 40% of people living paycheque-to-paycheque (definitely a record) the answer would appear simple. Hell, no.

Apparently MLS® has eaten our brains. In Canada real estate values are a proxy for the economy. Even when job creation numbers tank, the banks miss earnings estimates and governments sink further into deficits, the average price of a property in Van or the GTA is supposed to tell the whole story. And speaking of that – news – let’s have a moment of silence to mark the death of reporting. Media no longer discovers, distills and details the news. Its fresh job is to re-run press releases. Especially from the local real estate board. So much for trust.

An example from a day ago:

“Sales soar”, while “prices rebound” – plus we have a “jump in activity” and “unexpected demand.” Yup, all orchestrated to make you believe the market is soaring, rebounding, jumping and that houses are suddenly in demand. The desired result: FOMO. Realtors crave a sense of urgency and competition to spur sales and boost prices. The newspaper, which makes money from real estate, is happy to oblige.

So what’s real? Are things great in Vancouver because people have to pay $1.5 million for a detached house? And are things terrible in Calgary where the same property goes for $450,000 and is getting more affordable every month?

Dane Eitel is one of the few thoughtful analysts calling out the housing cartel. It’s a lonely job in a city like Vancouver, where real estate is porn. But he persists.

The increase in sales, he says, is no reflection of market strength. The people buying need to act for personal reasons. Investors are gone. Nobody should be expecting higher prices in 2020. In fact, the opposite. Eitel points out values are $120,000, or 7%, lower than at the end of 2017.

Not all markets in Greater Vancouver are created equal some areas are closer to the bottom while the majority still have significant percentage losses to come. The time to invest is on the horizon, however not at our feet yet. 2020 will experience needs-based selling as prices dip to 1.4 Million testing the current market cycle’s previously-established prices. At the 1.4 Million price point the market will have correct a total of 23% from the peak – back down to the 2015 level, indicating all gains over the previous 5 years will have been erased. Patience is a virtue and those purchasers willing to wait will be rewarded with stiffer competition amongst sellers in 2020 and 2021.

Newly listed properties that are appropriately priced are likely the ones receiving the acceptable offers. Properties that have been on the market for months are continuing to sit there. 2020 will see the inventory tick back up and surpass the 7000 active listings experienced in the summer of 2018. Largely due to the needs-based selling upcoming. Money save is money earned. Since our initial forecast that the Greater Vancouver Market had indeed topped out and prices would begin to trend lower. The market has realized a $360,000 price loss.

Dan Eitel doesn’t sell houses. Just information.

Re/Max has a different agenda. This is the company’s forecast for 2020 for East and West areas of Vancouver:

The Vancouver East housing market is currently balanced, which is expected to continue into 2020 due to strong market activity in the region. The RE/MAX average sale price for Vancouver East is expected to increase by eight per cent in 2020. Continued population growth and price increases are expected to boost the residential market in Vancouver East.

The Vancouver West market is expected to increase by 4% due to an uptick in buyer confidence returning to the market. Currently there are 4.5 months of inventory left on the market, as sales increase, we are beginning to see inventory levels drop so this is expected to be 15% lower in 2020. The most influential factors impacting market activity in 2020 include supply, interest rates and how sellers price their homes. Higher prices are expected in 2020 due to increasing sales and reduction on inventory.

By the way, the fastest-growing segment of the Canadian economy lately has been real estate commissions. We’re pooched.

 

108 comments ↓

#1 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 3:01 pm

The RE/MAX average sale price for Vancouver East …
____

They’ve got their own average?!

I need to get me one of those.

The “IHCTD9 Grizzly 700 SE average sale price” metric.

Then I can put my used Griz up for sale at 15K citing that (my) average prices are up over 20% last quarter and demand is so high for Grizzlies that there are bidding wars breaking out…

#2 n1tro on 12.05.19 at 3:19 pm

But at least the FOMO bidding wars are smaller in scale right?

I’m using an app called HouseSigma….it doesn’t have all the listings MLS has but the few it does, it shows useful info like price history and ones sold below last purchased price. Gives insights on the seller’s mindset.

I think the tide has already turned in that the number of greater fools out there has shrunk significantly. Toronto may be the fastest growing city in N. America(?) but one needs to ask what kind of people and particularly, how fat their wallets are, that make up that number.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 3:21 pm

When a “typical” house in the Lower Brainland is $1.4 mil…..and everyone is pickled in debt…..

Who are the realturds trying to fool?

#4 Happy Saver Happy Renter on 12.05.19 at 3:22 pm

I suggest people here read A Brief History of Doom by Richard Vague (former Banker). And Debunking Economics by Steven Keen (a heterodox exonomist).

#5 Stan Brooks on 12.05.19 at 3:28 pm

So they lied.

Stats/inflation numbers is a lie, banks lie, politicians lie, real estate cartel lies, media lies.

And all is good and ‘healthy’. Mark my words: This place will fall much harder than anythings that has ever fallen. The gullibility of this sheeple is absolutely astonishing.
Stuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuupido on exponential scale.

Cheers,

#6 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 3:33 pm

My BIL’s MIL died, so he and wife have moved into the MIL’s $1.4M owned condo in Kitsilano.

His wife has two siblings, so applying her inheritance, they’ve saddled themselves with a $900k mortgage they see as an “investment”.

He and I are both late 40’s and he’s just taken on a mortgage for life on a teacher’s salary. For comparison, the biggest annual bill my wife and I have is $5K property tax and we only work because we enjoy it. Why would anyone choose to live their entire life destitute in the city?

Crazy. Life decisions make a difference.

#7 GBiddy on 12.05.19 at 3:36 pm

“And speaking of that – news – let’s have a moment of silence to mark the death of reporting. Media no longer discovers, distills and details the news. Its fresh job is to re-run press releases.”

Yeah that started a long time ago, came to a boil about 2015-2016 and has been going strong since.

#8 The time for the ... on 12.05.19 at 3:55 pm

moment of silence for the news was a long time ago. Even the “news” stories are commercials. How did we ever let this happen?

#9 TurnerNation on 12.05.19 at 4:15 pm

We are ruled by globalist bankers. T1, T2 are deepening us into more debt asap,
For all those loons going on about UN agenda and such (me) here’s straight from TD Bank’s ad-madmen. Nothing to see here citizen, move along now.
Rub tummy??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JwSj3zJ-gM

“How TD Bank Group is aligning to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

In March 2018, TD Bank Group launched a new corporate citizenship platform called The Ready Commitment to help open doors for a more inclusive and sustainable tomorrow. As part of this multi-year, enterprise initiative TD is aligning to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. As a financial institution, TD believes it has a critical role to play in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. In this video we look at how TD is aligning to SDG 13: Taking Urgent Action to Combat Climate Change and its Impacts.”

#10 n1tro on 12.05.19 at 4:23 pm

“And speaking of that – news – let’s have a moment of silence to mark the death of reporting.”

Now now Garth, let’s be fair. Quality reporting is still live and well as seen in the below article reported earlier this year by the CBC.

How else would a simpleton like myself know that dropping my phone in the toilet with poop and pee would void its warranty just because I feel the IP68 water resistance (for fresh water) should also cover poop water and that the phone manufacturer should fully cover it because I am special and a victim?!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/water-resistant-phone-warranty-1.5121096

#11 FreeBird on 12.05.19 at 4:24 pm

Politicians should wear sponsor jackets like NASCAR drivers, then we know who owns them. -Robin Williams

Journalism is printing what someone else doesn’t want printed. Everything else is public relations. -George Orwell

(Great picture. Lions are one of my favorite animals)

#12 Kitsilano Kid on 12.05.19 at 4:52 pm

FOMO in YVR no longer exists. Most people have come to terms with the fact that owning a home (condo, townhouse, yurt) is unreachable. That being said try finding a place to live in YVR and you will inevitably pay through the nose. A family looking for a “liveable” space are facing a $3000 to $4000 per month rental market unless they enjoy ungodly, soul crushing car commuting. The market in YVR will not collapse and blaming foreign money or AirBNB is nonsense. If you want to live in the land of milk and honey pay up or shut up!

#13 X on 12.05.19 at 5:01 pm

City of Toronto to increase property taxes 10.5% over next 6 years. I bet by year six they have increased it by more than that.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/agar-torys-new-tax-flies-in-face-of-his-election-promises

#14 Smoking Man on 12.05.19 at 5:03 pm

YYZ worced airport in the world.

Good thing I’m only here for a few days… Freezing..

#15 Keith on 12.05.19 at 5:04 pm

Sales are up year over year for the month, for the fifth month in a row. November 2019 was four percent over the ten year average for that month, including some pretty high volume years. The rate of price decrease has fallen as volume of sales has increased.

If the sales increase in this way for seven more months, we can call the correction over, and the crash (except for West Vancouver and West side SFH) over. Prices will follow volume, they lag it but they always do. Looks like it will take the next recession to crash YVR real estate fully and completely.

#16 Penny Henny on 12.05.19 at 5:14 pm

#1 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 3:01 pm
The RE/MAX average sale price for Vancouver East …
____

They’ve got their own average?!

I need to get me one of those.

The “IHCTD9 Grizzly 700 SE average sale price” metric.

Then I can put my used Griz up for sale at 15K citing that (my) average prices are up over 20% last quarter and demand is so high for Grizzlies that there are bidding wars breaking out…
////////////////

Don’t forget you can also ‘seasonally adjust’ the price and sales numbers

#17 theoryAndPractice on 12.05.19 at 5:24 pm

#10 n1tro on 12.05.19 at 4:23 pm
———————————————-
It won’t be covered for every case, and it is logical because there may be any type of destructive chemical in a liquid. However, if the communicated reason covered by warranty, I don’t think they would spend a penny to prove the otherwise.

#18 jess on 12.05.19 at 5:24 pm

companies house

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article238037944.html

what’s boris have to say?

Panama Papers-style leak — and a Miami arrest — lift veil on how Iran ducks sanctions

By Shirsho Dasgupta and

Kevin G. Hall

WASHINGTON

Take the arrest of an Iranian-born Turkish citizen during a jaunt to Disney World. Factor in the irrepressible Rudy Giuliani, who briefly served as the arrested man’s lawyer. Add a dash of Turkey’s authoritarian leader, Recep Erdogan, a favorite of President Donald Trump. Mix in a massive leak of more than a million documents from a British offshore shell company provider.

And don’t forget to include a Miami cameo.

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article237638859.html#storylink=cpy
December 04, 2019 02:00 AM

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article237638859.html#storylink=cpy
Piercing the veil: a massive leak of records from British offshore services provider

By Kevin G. Hall
December 04, 2019 12:00 AM

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article238025004.html#storylink=cpy

WASHINGTON

About #29 Leaks:

The project’s name reflects the address of offshore services provider Formations House, located at 29 Harley Street, an upscale address in central London.

The data, 131 gigabytes worth or roughly a million files, comes from a breach at Formations House. The anti-secrecy group Distributed Denial of Secrets obtained the records and offered investigative journalists a chance to dig through.

The investigative news site Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) created a search engine to allow the Miami Herald, the McClatchy Washington Bureau and other collaborating news organizations globally to view the data, which included more than 880,000 emails.

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/investigations/article238025004.html#storylink=cpy

#19 jess on 12.05.19 at 5:30 pm

#29LEAKS: Inside a London Company Mill

https://www.occrp.org/en/29leaks/

“A cache of the family-run company’s internal records obtained by the anti-secrecy group Distributed Denial of Secrets, and shared with OCCRP and other media outlets, provides unprecedented insight into Formations House’s global reach, and the criminal activities of some of its clients around the world.

The resulting project — dubbed #29Leaks, referencing the company’s former address — provides insight into London’s company services industry, which UK law enforcement officials admit is regularly exploited by criminals. The stories also identify regulatory loopholes and failings that leave the global financial system vulnerable to fraud, money laundering, and corruption.

Even as firms registered by Formations House got involved in high-profile scams around the world, UK authorities failed to take action. The leaked records span a ten-year period, from 2008 to 2018, during which time the founder of Formations House was investigated by British police for serious financial crimes and the UK’s top anti-money laundering regulator warned the company that it could face prosecution for its failure to comply with regulations.”

ran a car-trafficking ring that cost Slovenian and Croatian taxpayers millions. In another, a fraudster banned from doing business in his native India skipped out on a construction deal in Serbia before buying a fake Gambian bank from Formations House

The documents also reveal the company’s plans to set up next-generation, privately-run offshore zones in poor countries with weak institutions. A big selling point? They would be beyond the reach of domestic and international authorities.

#20 Mattl on 12.05.19 at 5:35 pm

Playing games with RE data is what the doomers and pumpers do, all the time. Using MOM game when it suits, YOY when that looks better.

And leaving important data out. For instance, the 1.7T is backed by 6T in equity. If I have 500K debt on a 1.2MM home, and that debt is financed at 2.8%, do I really have a debt problem? Because that is a reality for a ton of YVR and GTA homeowners, and the 6T supports that.

Not arguing everything is OK and personally I hate debt. Balance for me is RE + balanced + non trad investments.

There is little difference between a Ross Kay, and the GVREA. Both have taken positions, are manipulating data to support them, and I’d argue neither one will be able to predict where RE goes next.

The RE boards have been more accurate then Ross the past 10 years, that’s for sure. But I’m sure at some point in this 20 year cycle he will be correct.

#21 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 5:37 pm

#11 FreeBird on 12.05.19 at 4:24 pm

(Great picture. Lions are one of my favorite animals)

——————————————

That might be a cougar Sometimes it’s hard to tell

#22 TurnerNation on 12.05.19 at 5:41 pm

So with Blog Dog Carney now looking like the Queen’s banker, and with Blog Dog Poloz gearing up for a official digital currency – well we know how well those have worked out eh.
(Btw ask yourself why the Royal in Royal Bank is there).

What if..we lose it all. Of course the usual overseas bogeymen will get blamed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-deny-compensation-online-fraud-security-1.5322982

“Banks deny compensation when hackers steal customers’ money”

Bank of Canada exploring digital currency that would replace …
https://business.financialpost.com › technology › blockchain › bank-of-cana…
Oct 15, 2019 – The Bank of Canada is considering launching a digital currency that would help it combat the “direct threat” of cryptocurrencies and collect

#23 Bezengy on 12.05.19 at 5:44 pm

Do the math on a $500k condo mortgage, add $800 per month fees, then add in another $500 for heat and hydro, etc and you’re close to 4k per month after tax. Perhaps a few can make the payments for awhile, but if they hit a curve in the road, and they almost certainly will, it will all come crashing down. It’s just a matter of time.

#24 Randy on 12.05.19 at 5:44 pm

Who cares about Real Estate…I should have bought a Chevrolet C8 Corvette for $60,000. Each car is sold by Chevrolet at a $20,000 loss. Oh yeah, the Cdn Dollar Sux. Next year prices go up $20,000 at least. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3fjInLGyOQ

#25 Smartalox on 12.05.19 at 5:52 pm

I’m a nerd, and one of my ‘hobbies’ is to chart the REBGV stats for detached houses, when they’re published every month.

I’ve been at this now for almost two years.

The best indicator (by far) of the long-term direction of the market has been the month to month change in ‘year to date’ median selling prices. Since March 2018, I’ve seen areas like Maple Ridge and New West go from double-digit gains of 20 to 21% (March 2017 to March 2018) to single-digit year over year gains, (Oct-Dec 2018) to double-digit declines in all areas.

Burnaby has been solidly negative since July 2018. It’s now down 12% over this time last year.

East Van since Jan 2019, also down 12% over this time last year, but falling less rapidly compared to Feb 2019, when prices were down 20% over the year before.

Van Westside in decline since April 2018, now down 14% over this time last year but not decreasing as rapidly as they were during the 25% decline seen in January 2019.

The declines are moderating, but prices are still declining. The biggest hits were seen in January of this year, I can’t help but wonder what we’ll see once property owners open their assessment letters in the first week of January!

#26 Cottingham a bargain on 12.05.19 at 5:58 pm

Lots of blah blah blah responses to my comment yesterday about rising prices and sales in the GTA.

All the same blah blah blah we have been reading here for the better part of a decade now.

See ya all at much higher prices next decade

#27 Rargary on 12.05.19 at 6:02 pm

Nov 9 ctvnews video, Tara Nelson for Calgary, mentions 50-60% of interest in $2 million homes are by foreigners, mainly China. Starting selling $2 million homes this year, 1st time since 2013! Realtors employing translators now given the high demand for high end real estate here. Apparently, they are coming for our top notch education. Friends chinese wife says her relatives in China (Beijing) are selling in Vancouver to buy in Calgary this past year. Vancouver is slipping!

In all of Calgary last month these was one – 1 – sale of a property worth $2 million or more. Don’t believe everything you see on CTV. – Garth

#28 Diharv on 12.05.19 at 6:09 pm

When 1M only buys you a detached POS teardown or an average aging condo, that is not a sign of a “healthy” market. Rather a bubble of delusion worthy of deflating.

#29 joblo on 12.05.19 at 6:12 pm

How to Lose $1 Million Dollars on a 50 year old house in Vancouver

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYySMGmycFo

#30 Where's My Money Going Now, Gov'ts? on 12.05.19 at 6:36 pm

RE: #3 Dave on 12.04.19 at 4:41 pm
What will speed up the price decline in Metro Vancouver??? Prices just are not dropping as fast as they were rising a few years ago
++++++++++++++++++++++
The gov’t taxes property to quell the onslaught but still hasn’t done sfa to stop numbered, anonymous cos. to purchase properties without proven, non-laundered monies.
It’s all a show by the gov’t (now with the Fed Liebs piling on with their taxes) to make it look like they’re doing something but really doing nothing to curb the criminals because the economy would croak w/out the building of residential properties.
In Abbotsford, they haven’t stopped tearing down every 2nd house on almost every street to build one or 2 huge 4000 sq. foot houses, while the apartment situation is at less than 1% vacancy because nothing is being built, can’t sell rentals back and forth to each other to launder their drug money.

#31 Yukon Elvis on 12.05.19 at 6:40 pm

I own a condo in the “University District” of Kelowna. Many condos and rentals in this area. Many students here have one or more roommates. Also many temporary foreign workers here working service industry jobs and seasonal agricultural jobs, most with one or more roommates. Rentals are scarce and rents are high. I know a few “born and bred” here young families who pool their resources and buy a house together because they just can’t afford to buy individually. Lots of pent up demand here for housing. If rents should ever decrease there will be lineups for any new rentals coming to market. With the pent up demand and population growth I see strong demand for housing going forward. I think rents and house prices will continue to trend upward. No relief. Like Garth says, pooched.

#32 Where's My Money Going Now, Gov'ts? on 12.05.19 at 6:45 pm

#30 Where’s My Money Going Now, Gov’ts? on 12.05.19 at 6:36 pm
RE: #3 Dave on 12.04.19 at 4:41 pm
What will speed up the price decline in Metro Vancouver??? Prices just are not dropping as fast as they were rising a few years ago
++++++++++++++++++++++
The gov’t taxes property to quell the onslaught but still hasn’t done sfa to stop numbered, anonymous cos. to purchase properties without proven, non-laundered monies.
It’s all a show by the gov’t (now with the Fed Liebs piling on with their taxes) to make it look like they’re doing something but really doing nothing to curb the criminals because the economy would croak w/out the building of residential properties.
In Abbotsford, they haven’t stopped tearing down every 2nd house on almost every street to build one or 2 huge 4000 sq. foot houses, while the apartment situation is at less than 1% vacancy because nothing is being built, can’t sell rentals back
++++++++++++++++++
Here’s an example how slack the RE industry/gov’t is vis-a-vis laundered money, and it’s a drop in the bucket to the drug coin. How come this wasn’t caught beforehand? It’s always AFTER the money gets laundered, then the gov’t comes in, grabs it, then gives a pittance to social programs.
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/burnaby-house-sought-in-civil-forfeiture-allegedly-linked-to-canada-revenue-agency-scam
Follow the money, obvious it’s the gov’t who’s making bank. Why would they kill the golden goose?

#33 S.Bby on 12.05.19 at 6:50 pm

Prices in my area of Burnaby have been sliding for a few years now.

These are all similar houses on similar lot sizes within a block or less of each other.

Jun 2016 6108 Berwick St. $1,890,000 (mkt peak)
Dec 2017 6125 Dickens St. $1,620,000
Oct 2018 6091 Dickens St. $1,440,000
Nov 2108 6158 Berwick St. $1,380,000
Aug 2019 6107 Dickens St. $1,275,000
Oct 2019 6475 Burns St. $1,150,000 (full reno)

and prices on detached are still dropping…

#34 Linda on 12.05.19 at 6:51 pm

I think it is all a matter of perspective. If someone is making $ with RE at such high levels then they would likely say it was good. Those who chose to buy despite the cost might still claim it was good, because they now have that trophy & can brag about how their place increased in value (presuming of course that it did). Those who can’t buy & want to be able to would say it was bad as they are priced out of the market.

I see the situation as bad, because insofar as I’m concerned aiding & abetting others to commit financial suicide will end up costing everyone. Case in point: the new taxes being imposed by governments who used the situation to justify said new taxes. To the approval of those who will end up paying them should they ever achieve that trophy house they lust after. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Problem is, they’ve shot everyone else too.

#35 Steven Rowlandson on 12.05.19 at 7:30 pm

“So are lower prices and less debt a positive or a negative?”

When it comes to real estate it is a positive because like lying when you increase the price of a home you make life more difficult or impossible for others or in other words you murder some part of the world. Which of course is genocidal under article 2 section c and d of the convention on genocide. Increasing the price of a necessity of life like shelter is done with forethought and malicious greed without the restraint of morality or conscience. This is the intent to destroy a people in whole or in part all for the sake of making a profit.
Survival of the richest, a way of acting and thinking worthy of Ebeneezer Scrooge. Are there no prisons? Are there no work houses? Scrooge thought the poor ought to die and get out of the way rather than getting a fair deal and a reasonable chance to live a decent life.
Real estate profiteers, home flippers and investors think the working people are made of money and ought to hand over every cent the tax man leaves them. Not only is this true it is also wicked! Left to continue it will be the doom of any country that permits it.

#36 ronh on 12.05.19 at 7:39 pm

#9 TurnerNation

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/agenda-2030-translator-how-read-uns-new-sustainable-development-goals

#37 Nonplused on 12.05.19 at 7:47 pm

As Mark Twain is credited with once saying, “If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed.”

We like to think it is a new phenomena because the internet and cable TV enable us to consume various points of view far beyond what could happen when the news was on at 6 & 11 and there were only 2 newspapers in town. But the fact is that “free news” has never been anything but a means to sell advertisements. The news has always been selected, tortured, censored, compressed, expanded, distorted, misrepresented, fabricated, and manufactured whole cloth to suit the purposes of the advertisers and owners.

Perhaps there have been a few news outlets that contained some news over the years like Bloomberg. But you need a $2000/month terminal to get that. They don’t put the actual news on their cable channel, that works on the advertiser model as above.

A good example is the current coverage of Trudeau’s most recent gaff where he was caught mocking the president of the United States on a hot mic (and camera). It’s simply Trudeau being the child wonder that he is, lacking maturity, decorum, manners, wisdom, and simple common sense, so it is nothing new. But it is all over the US media right now and Biden has already put it in a campaign ad. Really? Is it news that Trudeau is a daft bumbler? Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron are probably mortified by the release of this video and won’t be caught dead standing next to the boy wonder again. But it’s selling ads.

I’m surprised a little that Biden’s campaign decided to use the footage. Aside from it being a Hillary repeat, nobody in the US knows who Trudeau is or cares a flip what he thinks. The few people down there who do know who is think he is an arse. Americans are far more likely to be offended by this disrespect even if they don’t like this president.

Both Trudeau and Biden stepped in a cow patty again. It’s not going to help Canada.

So here is the thing about news, social media, TV, radio, anything you consider free: If you aren’t paying for it, you are the product.

#38 Boombust on 12.05.19 at 8:01 pm

The local press/RE industry here in Vancouver have been working overtime to drive FOMO even higher with this so-called “recovery”. However, they never mention that sales were off last year by 42.5% and that November was the 9th consecutive month of year over year price declines

Obviously lower overall prices have tricked some people into thinking some miraculous market turnaround is underway. Far from it. There is far too much debt any the momentum to drive prices higher is now long gone.

#39 Ronaldo on 12.05.19 at 8:09 pm

#21 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 5:37 pm
#11 FreeBird on 12.05.19 at 4:24 pm

(Great picture. Lions are one of my favorite animals)

——————————————

That might be a cougar Sometimes it’s hard to tell
————————————————————–
Looks too young to be a cougar.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:22 pm

@#34 Linda
“I see the situation as bad, because insofar as I’m concerned aiding & abetting others to commit financial suicide will end up costing everyone….”
++++

I totally agree.
We’re seeing it now with rising taxes and deficit budgets…
The “media” obeying their Real estate “masters” and pumping the nirvana of ownership….no matter what the cost.

Once again, politicians taking the easy road, defer the painful solutions to “sometime” down the road , hoping some other politician will have to deal with the outhouse muck that’s threatening to overflow even a wooden toilet….while they pander to the populists of the day.

Its been going on for decades and now it’s reaching a head.

Everywhere we are seeing political protests, some very violent political protests…. from third world countries (South America & the Middle East) to first world countries(Europe).

Everywhere we are seeing minority/coalition govts elected ….because no one believes the horseshit spewed out on a daily basis by our “leaders”.

Whats to be done?
I’m not sure.

But banning the HUGE money lobbyists use to influence govt decisions……might be a good start…

#41 Debtslavecreator on 12.05.19 at 8:34 pm

The Canadian economy is a massive Bezzle
It’s just starting to wake up the masses
Over the next 5 years as the climate emergency fraud translates into shock tax increases on almost everything and your groceries are 7-800/week instead of 200-250/ week you won’t be able to give away a house for free
This is the most brazen con ever inflicted save for CMHC and suppressing rates to allow the massive debt bubble to continue
On the bright side at least we have a rapidly growing population and some great deals to be had on homes in a few years
That first budget will be a doozy thanks to Justin and Jagmeet Marx

#42 Treasure Island CEO - 38,988,078.88 Offshore on 12.05.19 at 8:43 pm

Who cares about how much equity is built up in the system based on how much debt there is.

Look at what % it takes to service that debt. And any falter in the servicing and the equity will evaporate just like Bear Stearns.

Then everyone will be looking at one another not knowing who to trust, credit freeze, more pain, eventual ease and a new cycle begins

Right now it is housing that is lopsided and requiring an elevated level of servicing costs. Eating disposable income, requiring more debt. If that is where the money is going it is only natural that it becomes the number one industry in Canada.

This is very unbalanced and a lack of productivity in real goods produced in Canada is going to catch up and crack the labor market. Once the labor market cracks there will be a reckoning of debt, most of it written off as bad debt and this will torpedo the housing market.

The central banks can screw with the rate for now, which will work and is working, but as soon as the labor market cracks it is game over. Trading houses to one another wont last forever and is covering up massive problems in Canadian performance. Expect a massive uptick in housing just prior.

In fact, a massive uptick in housing prices is underway and is going to top 2017 madness in the coming months and will implode the system. Watch for any policy to curb what is going on. Like a new stress test…or maybe just the insane taxes that on on way.

As painful as this will be – it will be healthy reset for next generation. Sorry millennials about the screwups leaving you as a lost generation…and to anyone else who thinks 50+% allocated to shelter is sustainable and a good business model for investment.

#43 akashic record on 12.05.19 at 8:48 pm

2 cats to buy for.

#44 Bbobby on 12.05.19 at 8:54 pm

” and 40% of people living paycheque-to-paycheque (definitely a record) ”

Definitely a record based on what? You have no source for your invented claim of a record here Garth. The masses have always been living paycheck to paycheck – nothing to see here..

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:57 pm

@#39 Ronaldo
“Looks too young to be a cougar.”
++++

Yeah, thinking the same thing.

#46 BC Assessment 2020 ???????? on 12.05.19 at 9:01 pm

26 more days until BC residents get hit with news via letter about big drops on their home valuations…or will they?

This impacts mostly the old people who only believe what is written via hard copy stamped by the government. Everything else is fake news to them. Okboomer?

BC Assessment ran to media with news about major value increases several years ago yet now as things have reversed, no mention of the 15-20% drops.

Makes you wonder about who funds them. Or right, housing values and the taxation justified on those values forever increasing.

Vancouver is the place to watch…they already took a hit last year (mostly in the high end)…yet will there be another hit this year? Double whammy not ever seen in recent decades and finally hitting the lower end?

Okanagan is setup for a good 8-10% drop in values on everything based on the comparable sales for this past year.

Will they allow such a print? Not if the banks and municipalities have anything to say about it.

Just freeze the values again boys when times turn down to smooth things out. You are the government. You can do whatever you want.

This January will prove the credibility of the so-called independent arm of gov doing assessments.

If the letters are negative – this is when (aside from a media blackout about it) boomers will be sitting down and asking themselves? Is now the time to get my money out? And you know what the answer will be…no! Housing only goes up.

#47 Where's My Money Gone, Gov't? Oh yeah, the UN on 12.05.19 at 9:12 pm

Re” #15 Keith on 12.05.19 at 5:04 pm
Sales are up year over year for the month, for the fifth month in a row. November 2019 was four percent over the ten year average for that month, including some pretty high volume years. The rate of price decrease has fallen as volume of sales has increased.

If the sales increase in this way for seven more months, we can call the correction over, and the crash (except for West Vancouver and West side SFH) over. Prices will follow volume, they lag it but they always do. Looks like it will take the next recession to crash YVR real estate fully and completely.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Keith must have a crystal ball into the money laundry in BC.
Find the corner store RE lawyer, bring him a hefty hockey bag sized down payment, buy the house, take out a clean new mortgage for more than the property is worth and bingo, fresh as a spring morning cashola, as evidenced by my last entry’s story.
Why does the gov’t not stop this, it’s so glaringly evident?
It seems the banks are complicit, why don’t they do their due diligence. Oh yeah, they’re backed by we loser taxpayers!

Gotta clean that dough, no matter what!

#48 Dreaming on 12.05.19 at 9:16 pm

#31 Yukon Elvis

We sold our place in North Van for $2M in 2016. The buyers resold a year later for a $150K price loss plus realtor fees, taxes, etc. – so well over $200K loss.

Based on what I see selling now in the area, I would be surprised if they could get $1.35M for it. That’s $650K less in 3 years.

You are dreaming if you think prices don’t and won’t come down. It’s happening right now.

Of course many that are thinking of selling are hoping the NDP will get the boot and all the taxes will be eliminated so that prices go back up. Dream on, they’re increasingly dependent on those taxes for their incomes and they are becoming more common place in cities around the world.

#49 conan on 12.05.19 at 9:23 pm

I see a photo shopped nightmare. The lion’s right paw looks like they took it from a cheetos bag. That’s the most obvious one, but there are many more.

#50 n1tro on 12.05.19 at 9:44 pm

#39 Ronaldo on 12.05.19 at 8:09 pm
#21 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 5:37 pm
#11 FreeBird on 12.05.19 at 4:24 pm

(Great picture. Lions are one of my favorite animals)

——————————————

That might be a cougar Sometimes it’s hard to tell
————————————————————–
Looks too young to be a cougar.

True. It’ll be another 10-15 yrs before she becomes a cougar. Depends how hard she parties and tans.

#51 Sail Away on 12.05.19 at 9:44 pm

#37 Nonplused on 12.05.19 at 7:47 pm

I’m surprised a little that Biden’s campaign decided to use the [Trudeau dissing Trump] footage.

Americans are far more likely to be offended by this disrespect even if they don’t like this president.

——————————————-

I agree, it’s very surprising they’d use this. Many Americans will interpret this as Canada, France and Britain poking fun at the US.

Canada has always been seen as a pleasant neighbour in the US, but there’s no love lost for France and Britain. This latest shenanigan, combined with Freeland’s FU speech a few years ago, could shift that attitude.

Let’s see how it plays out. Oh, and probably preemptively reduce maple holdings.

#52 Sail Away on 12.05.19 at 10:01 pm

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:57 pm
@#39 Ronaldo
“Looks too young to be a cougar.”
++++

Yeah, thinking the same thing.

———————————

Cougars can be wily. More pictures would help.

#53 Paul on 12.05.19 at 10:11 pm

#12 Kitsilano Kid on 12.05.19 at 4:52 pm
FOMO in YVR no longer exists. Most people have come to terms with the fact that owning a home (condo, townhouse, yurt) is unreachable. That being said try finding a place to live in YVR and you will inevitably pay through the nose. A family looking for a “liveable” space are facing a $3000 to $4000 per month rental market unless they enjoy ungodly, soul crushing car commuting. The market in YVR will not collapse and blaming foreign money or AirBNB is nonsense. If you want to live in the land of milk and honey pay up or shut up!

_______

I guess we shall see how long YVR remains the land of milk and honey. I still love the city, in spite of all its problems and have great living arrangements with a short commute to downtown – but I sure as hell have no interest in investing in real estate here even though I could. While your boastful posts are grating, I wish you all the best.

#54 TheDood on 12.05.19 at 10:21 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 3:21 pm
When a “typical” house in the Lower Brainland is $1.4 mil…..and everyone is pickled in debt…..

Who are the realturds trying to fool?
________________________________________

The idiot line in BC has no end. There are sooooooo many………..

#55 William R Drury on 12.05.19 at 10:27 pm

We finally agree on something

#56 DON on 12.05.19 at 10:42 pm

#85 Mattl on 12.05.19 at 11:03 am

…If you can’t take the 10 minutes as month to go through the data that’s on you…

***********************
I feel the same about people who don’t keep aware of their surroundings and don’t calibrate their own thinking for their own well being.

For instance,

https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/lower-profits-higher-loan-loss-provisions-could-be-new-normal-for-canadas-big-banks

https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2019/12/04/bank-of-montreal-laying-off-hundreds-of-employees/

These people make mortgage payments and spend money at businesses. Gotta wonder how long the banks will allow people to draw on their equity before pulling the plug.

There have been numerous layoffs in Alberta (Oil and now public sector). A fair share of those oil workers were flyins/flyouts from all over BC. Now we have layoffs in our forest industry all over the Province. People are loosing their trucks, marriages and houses.

Who cares what the realtors put out, they pumped the markets for their own benefit.

Who came first the pumpers of the doomers?

Obviously, I missed the news that local incomes spiked upwards enough to justify steady price increases continuously at the same pace to fit their narrative.

I have a friend who was retired, with a large mortgage and intends on selling in the Spring. Another friend just went through a divorce, she sold the house just in time. They were only married and had the house for a couple of years. Yes she dropped the price to get out of the situation, came away with enough to travel, but couch surfed and paid all the bills for the last 1.5 years.

Life happens to people and these are someone’s neighbours who have to sell.

Oh yah…the manufacturing index in the US just went down.

But as long as you can categorize your opponents as doomers you’ll be all right in your books.

#57 april on 12.05.19 at 10:48 pm

#5 – how right you are!! ‘Fools rush in where…..’.

#58 april on 12.05.19 at 10:52 pm

#15 – Might it be that your deluded?

#59 april on 12.05.19 at 10:54 pm

#20 – sounds like realtor talk.

#60 R.E. Mini Watchdog on 12.05.19 at 11:08 pm

Garth

Please do an updated blog on the latest Condo Strata Building Insurance debacle that has been aired on TV News and in Newspapers in past week about the reality happening with Insurance giants raising Premiums by 30% – 700% on Multi Million Dollar Strata Buildings, raising Owner Insurance Deductibles and increasing Condo Fees to a new level. Now that word is out could you spread more on your thoughts on “Hole in the wall” investments.

#61 cramar on 12.05.19 at 11:11 pm

According to KPMG, 72% of Millennials want to own a home, but 46% say it is just a pipe dream (in Toronto and Vancouver)! Debt to income ratio for younger Millennials is 216% mostly due to mortgage debt. [Insane!]

https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/market-talk/kpmg-many-canadian-millennials-will-never-own-a-home-323693.aspx

#62 Barb on 12.05.19 at 11:40 pm

Eitel’s grammatical skills and sentence structure are close to the bottom too. Good grief!

#63 IHCTD9 on 12.06.19 at 12:07 am

#6 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 3:33 pm
My BIL’s MIL died, so he and wife have moved into the MIL’s $1.4M owned condo in Kitsilano
—-

Yo, isn’t your BIL’s MIL your own momma?

Well I suppose you could be referring to your wife’s brother’s wife’s momma?

I better stop trying to figure this out before I break some kind of taboo! :)

#64 islander on 12.06.19 at 12:10 am

“British Columbia condo buildings are facing insurance premium hikes of between 50 per cent and 300 per cent

deductibles are going from the conventional $10,000 or $25,000 to $100,000, $250,000 or $500,000,”

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/condo-insurance-canada_ca_5de813a3e4b0913e6f8a235c

This is when it starts to hurt – reality bites!

#65 Dr V on 12.06.19 at 12:58 am

46 BC 2020 – what letter? Find it here

https://www.bcassessment.ca/

And my taxes have never gone down, even when the assessment did

#66 Doug t on 12.06.19 at 12:59 am

Gotta give these guys credit – their making hay while they can

#67 DON on 12.06.19 at 1:10 am

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:22 pm

@#34 Linda
“I see the situation as bad, because insofar as I’m concerned aiding & abetting others to commit financial suicide will end up costing everyone….”
++++

I totally agree.
We’re seeing it now with rising taxes and deficit budgets…
The “media” obeying their Real estate “masters” and pumping the nirvana of ownership….no matter what the cost.

Once again, politicians taking the easy road, defer the painful solutions to “sometime” down the road , hoping some other politician will have to deal with the outhouse muck that’s threatening to overflow even a wooden toilet….while they pander to the populists of the day.

Its been going on for decades and now it’s reaching a head.

Everywhere we are seeing political protests, some very violent political protests…. from third world countries (South America & the Middle East) to first world countries(Europe).

Everywhere we are seeing minority/coalition govts elected ….because no one believes the horseshit spewed out on a daily basis by our “leaders”.

Whats to be done?
I’m not sure.

But banning the HUGE money lobbyists use to influence govt decisions……might be a good start…
**************

We could also automate the functions of an Politician. Replace them with robots that have your (collective), best interests at heart and is programmed to not tell lies.

We can call them all Spock. Just Spock

Of course we would hold quick and efficient referendums and move more towards direct democracy.

Anything is better than this current mess. Of course, the Robots would be hack proof or they’ll start working for the lobbyists again. No terminator shit, just happy, friendly, respectful robots.

#68 Robert Ash on 12.06.19 at 2:12 am

RE Housing Markets in Canada. Our Elected Leaders, and the BOC, have made conscious decisions, to lower Interest rates, to simulate Exports, and Housing. This is sadly an indication, that our Leaders, have no realistic plans, or even Ideas, on what to do, to keep our Economy moving forward positively.
Concentrating on Climate Change, while important as all Pollution abatement is important, simply distracts, from the Pressing Issue, .. the lack of Productivity, and Investment in Canada, at the Domestic, Corporate, and International level… Most of our Growth is Debt financed, and picking winners and losers, in the Ecomonic Lottery, is showing signs, of weakness… Like mentioned above .. Trading Houses, to one another is the little we have left, in Canada, that is positive, for our Economy. Has Trudeau, moved forward with Infrastructure investments, etc.. All a Dodge, to keep the Electorate, off the topic of slow regional economic growth, and of course this continuous dialog, hopefully keeps, the subjects that are really imperative, as second thoughts…

#69 Davebabych on 12.06.19 at 3:10 am

A buddy just sold his place in East Van for 1.6, sold in a couple days with multiple offers. And he bought for 750k a handful of years ago, did a few renos, and has a pretty nice return now. All this doom and gloom and talk of how the market will drop out and it still hasn’t happened…

#70 Midnights on 12.06.19 at 5:25 am

Wow!

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/the-most-important-canadian-economic-charts-to-watch-in-2020/

#71 Shadowfax on 12.06.19 at 5:47 am

DELETED

#72 Biologist on 12.06.19 at 7:28 am

That’s definitely a Fox and a lion. Meow!

#73 Dharma Bum on 12.06.19 at 7:30 am

#12 Kitsilano Kid

If you want to live in the land of milk and honey pay up or shut up!
——————————————————————–

You for got to say: “You people!”.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 8:17 am

@#69 babych
“A buddy just sold his place in East Van for 1.6, sold in a couple days with multiple offers. And he bought for 750k a handful of years ago, did a few renos….”
++++

Whats your friends name….SlumDog Millionaire?

#75 Dharma Bum on 12.06.19 at 8:21 am

Regarding the photo:

That looks like a very cunning and dangerous predator. I’d like to tangle with a wild animal like that, but I am too scared.

The lion on the right, on the other hand, seems pretty tame.

#76 Stan Brooks on 12.06.19 at 9:04 am

#70 Midnights on 12.06.19 at 5:25 am
Wow!

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/the-most-important-canadian-economic-charts-to-watch-in-2020/

——————————————

Getting productivity from a cheap labour/sweat shop is difficult.

Direct ‘investment’ is in the form of acquisitions and credit.

Business investment is ‘sluggish’.

Corporate debt is exploding/counted as ‘investment’.

GDP per capita shows Canada’s lost decade despite the record household debt! We are apparently at debt saturation phase, never deleveraged

Canada is still too dependent on the energy sector
And still no pipeline …

Canada’s economy appears remarkably resilient

The sheeple is still somehow holding, while Titanic is sinking.

A burden on future taxpayers

The bill goes to the future ‘lucky’ sheeple. We shall see if it will comply and pay it though…

Federal debt-to-GDP rule will likely be breached

Municipal governments are bucking the deficit trend

Low savings rates reflect overburdened consumers

Sheeple id debt – public and private, up to the eyeballs

Insolvency watch in Ontario

Where is the most indebted sheeple/explains the house prices in GTA

Growing population and falling investment: A recipe for declining living standards

Aha, remember all is ‘good’ and ‘no inflation’ nonsense?

Home is where the economy is

The ‘real economy’ is actually a debt fueled giant credit gas bag that is rapidly approaching point of explosion.

Record high debt levels and heading higher

An enormous credit orgy that gets wilder.

A overheated housing market hits renters

You can’t be normal among stupid.

Boomers OK to keep working

The sheeple will never ever retire and ‘is ok’ with it.

Work overload

That mortgage requires 2nd, then 3rd job… This is why it is called mortgages, from latin ‘mortos/mortu’, i.e. until death in debt.

Cheers,

#77 Phylis on 12.06.19 at 9:35 am

#37 Nonplused on 12.05.19 at 7:47 pm
So here is the thing about news, social media, TV, radio, anything you consider free: If you aren’t paying for it, you are the product.

Reminded of this.
The medium is the message. The content is the viewer. -McLuhan

#78 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.06.19 at 9:36 am

We can’t increase wealth by selling and reselling our houses. The Japaneses are still struggling to recover from when their housing market crashed in the 90s.

What we need it this country is to build more pipelines. That brings is real economic growth. It is not dependent on inflated asset prices. Nor will it price more people out of a home.

#79 Remembrancer on 12.06.19 at 9:42 am

#51 Sail Away on 12.05.19 at 9:44 pm
#37 Nonplused on 12.05.19 at 7:47 pm

Why surprised? This is living next door to the elephant 101 and Trudeau needs to keep his smart a$$ trap shut, he’s no Diefenbaker and Trump’s definitely no Kennedy…

American politics is always a blood sport and spoiler alert, if Biden needs to trash Canada on the way to the Iron Throne er White House he will…

Remember, when either party hasn’t got an incumbent they are de facto backing for a 2nd term they host their own 18 month plus hunger games nomination cycle to pick a candidate – if they’ll tear each other down, why would they care about anyone else on the road?

#80 Canada's failed leader on 12.06.19 at 9:48 am

DELETED

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 9:48 am

aking of trust.
What happened to all those jobs the liberals were bragging about heading into the October election?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1YA1K6

Lies and the lying liars that tell them.

Trudeau, in charge of a minority govt ., heading into an economic downturn????
Oh mammy!

#82 Sail Away on 12.06.19 at 9:56 am

#63 IHCTD9 on 12.06.19 at 12:07 am
#6 Sail away on 12.05.19 at 3:33 pm
My BIL’s MIL died, so he and wife have moved into the MIL’s $1.4M owned condo in Kitsilano
—-

Yo, isn’t your BIL’s MIL your own momma?

——————–

Willie Nelson explains it:

For now I have become
The strangest case you ever saw
As the husband of my grandmother
I am my own grandpa

I’m my own grandpa
I’m my own grandpa
It sounds funny I know
But it really is so
I’m my own grandpa

#83 Dr V on 12.06.19 at 10:08 am

IHCTD9 – try your spouses brother wife’s mom.

#84 Tony on 12.06.19 at 10:11 am

Made good money day trading today all based on the U.S. jobs figures reflected the December 15th deadline on the trade talks with China. Of course America had to appear to be in a strong position leading up to December 15th making the prediction of the jobs figure the surest thing since death and taxes. Of course the opposite will happen with next months jobs figures, we might even see negative jobs figures out of America.

#85 Mattl on 12.06.19 at 10:25 am

#56 DON – what are you rambling about? My point was that you can see the direction the market is moving from the RE Board. Clearly that direction is down, no matter what the release letter says. I don’t see the point in getting all worked up about a CTV FOMO report, or a board release letter when the underlying data is available and easy to interpret.

You have a tendency to quote one small piece of my post and then go on a rant that has nothing to do with what I posted about. I think you believe that I’m a RE pumper – I’m not, we have a small RE position relative to income / net worth.

But great rant on layoffs and median incomes, not sure what that has to do with RE Board stats. Maybe chase some other poster around for a bit?

#86 Sail Away on 12.06.19 at 10:28 am

Sahotas. And… the lawsuit:

https://www.vancourier.com/news/downtown-eastside-hotel-owners-launch-court-challenge-against-city-of-vancouver-1.24028664

#87 Mattl on 12.06.19 at 10:31 am

#59 april on 12.05.19 at 10:54 pm
#20 – sounds like realtor talk.

————————————————————–

You claim that the RE Board numbers are a lie, I ask for evidence, and that makes me a realtor. Lame.

BTW if you can ever take the 5 minutes to actually look at the numbers you’d see that they support that YVR is in a serious correction. But, much easier to rant and rave on this blog then truly try to understand what is going on.

#88 Ronaldo on 12.06.19 at 11:13 am

#48 Dreaming on 12.05.19 at 9:16 pm
#31 Yukon Elvis

We sold our place in North Van for $2M in 2016. The buyers resold a year later for a $150K price loss plus realtor fees, taxes, etc. – so well over $200K loss.

Based on what I see selling now in the area, I would be surprised if they could get $1.35M for it. That’s $650K less in 3 years.

You are dreaming if you think prices don’t and won’t come down. It’s happening right now.

Of course many that are thinking of selling are hoping the NDP will get the boot and all the taxes will be eliminated so that prices go back up. Dream on, they’re increasingly dependent on those taxes for their incomes and they are becoming more common place in cities around the world.
——————————————————————
For those who got in with minimum down payment are way underwater now and there would be many. These people are now trapped and many would be unable to come up with the funds to pay the bank. Even those who put the 20% down have lost most of that equity and they will be reluctant to sell and take the loss. This would account for the low listings that will occur. What will bring the prices down are the ones that have to sell. The speckers who have now become reluctant landlords may decide that they cannot afford to subsidize the tenants and take further losses and bail out. This too will cause prices to drop further. Foreign buyers who purchased with hot money will just dump them for whatever they can get or walk away. We havn’t even begun to see price drops yet. This rollercoaster ride is far from over and for those who think that prices will not drop any further are dreaming in technicolor. There is no reason for it to be different this time around than it was in the 70s, 80’s and 90’s. Stay tuned.

#89 Mr. Nirp on 12.06.19 at 11:16 am

Poloz got the boot

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-poloz-1.5386780

https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqOQgKIjNDQklTSURvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NoTUtFUWpocE1MSWpvQU1FY3hOSXVsUnQwTklLQUFQAQ?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

#90 Rory on 12.06.19 at 11:21 am

I couldn’t be more bullish on Toronto real estate.

Currently own some properties in the east end (Leslieville and Beaches) and hoping to acquire more. I’m still young though, so available cash for investment is an issue. I also have a young family, which as Garth always mentions ain’t cheap!

My father owns eleven (12!) condos in Toronto – many in the pre-construction/pre-occupancy stage, but some completed and rented out. All in prime areas. He’s made an absolute fortune.

Best city in the world by far – and fastest growing city in North America by far. No chance of that slowing down in the future. Love the multiculturalism, safety, excitement and energy. Where else would you rather live!? And no, a home on 40 acres in the country isolated and alone isn’t appealing to me.

I understand the idea of diversification, but it’s hard to argue with RE in Toronto proper, and it’s hard to beat those returns, I’ll tell ya that much.

#91 Alpha Bravo on 12.06.19 at 11:39 am

#6 Sail away

His wife has two siblings, so applying her inheritance, they’ve saddled themselves with a $900k mortgage they see as an “investment”.

Why would anyone choose to live their entire life destitute in the city?

Crazy. Life decisions make a difference.

————————————-

You are making an assumption here that they will remain there till their dying day. There are many people that took a chance at home ownership in 2003-2005, mortgaged heavily (sacrificed), and have been rewarded in equity. If your BIL is happy, be happy for him rather than snicker at his decisions.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 11:50 am

@#89 Mr Nirp

Nah,
He’s just smart enough to know whats coming and is getting out of Dodge before the shite hits the air mover…..

#93 Long-Time Lurker on 12.06.19 at 11:56 am

>Barack Obama bought a sea-level home in Martha’s Vineyard recently. Climate Emergency!

President Obama Buys Home on Edgartown Great Pond
* Julia Wells
* Wednesday, December 4, 2019
*
Former President Obama and his family are now permanent homeowners on Martha’s Vineyard, after completing the purchase this week of a large home situated on nearly 30 acres in the coastal perimeter of Edgartown.

The purchase price, recorded at 3:31 p.m. Wednesday with the Dukes County Registry of Deeds, is listed at $11.75 million. The buyer is a nominee trust representing the former First Family. The sellers are Wycliffe Grousbeck and Corinne Basler Grousbeck. Mr. Grousbeck is a private equity investor and owner of the Boston Celtics basketball team….

https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2019/12/04/president-obama-buys-home-edgartown-great-pond

#94 Dogman01 on 12.06.19 at 12:05 pm

Statistics etc.

Ok so now we see job losses of 71,000.

Before the election it is all rosy.

That is my gut feel on many statistics as well as scientific reports; mid-level functionaries (experts) really need their jobs and often have limited employment options in their field (which they have invested years of education in). Their bosses got to be the boss by knowing what pleases their bosses. (I worked in such a place). You get a low level manipulation as it is better to use discretion then show the unvarnished truth to those whom need to spin the truth to their purpose, Or else you career is over.

That is the way humans work in communities; and it leads to weird outcomes. 2+2=4 but I will say it =3 if I get bonus.; everyone else is.

#95 Ronaldo on 12.06.19 at 12:08 pm

So Canada loses 71,200 jobs. Economists had predicted 10,000 gain. So much for predictions. The USA adds 266,000. What’s our problem?

#96 Ubul on 12.06.19 at 12:20 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 9:48 am

aking of trust.
What happened to all those jobs the liberals were bragging about heading into the October election?

Worst job numbers since the financial crises, right after election. Were we fed cooked numbers before the election?

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 12:25 pm

@#90 Rory
“And no, a home on 40 acres in the country isolated and alone isn’t appealing to me….”
****

Awesome .
We wont be neighbors.
Enjoy the traffic.

#98 Dogman01 on 12.06.19 at 12:39 pm

2+2=3; watch the mini-series show Chernobyl on Crave\HBO.

A smart illustration of the results when a society decides that if the party says 2+2=3 then we all must do what we must to make 3 the answer, then the inevitable results when reality kicks you in the pants.

I see more and more of that in Western Society.

When I was young and naïve, I believed that important people took positions based on careful consideration of the options. Now I know better. Much of what Serious People believe rests on prejudices, not analysis. And these prejudices are subject to fads and fashions.
– Paul Krugman

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” -Upton Sinclair

#99 Stan Brooks on 12.06.19 at 12:46 pm

#89 Mr. Nirp on 12.06.19 at 11:16 am
Poloz got the boot

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-poloz-1.5386780

https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqOQgKIjNDQklTSURvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NoTUtFUWpocE1MSWpvQU1FY3hOSXVsUnQwTklLQUFQAQ?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

The rats are leaving the sinking ship.

Absolutely horrific job losses. There goes the ‘economy’ , flushed down the sink/toilet.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-sheds-71000-jobs-in-november-133348567.html

Canada sheds the most jobs in a month since 2009

That with 30 billions yearly deficit at federal level only + the biggest credit bubble in housing the world has ever seen.

#100 Mattl on 12.06.19 at 12:51 pm

#95 Ronaldo on 12.06.19 at 12:08 pm
So Canada loses 71,200 jobs. Economists had predicted 10,000 gain. So much for predictions. The USA adds 266,000. What’s our problem?

—————————————————————-

As part of my job I track Same Store Sales (SSS) at about 80K merchant locations in Canada. And SSS have been negative a few points for about 12 months. Typically, we see growth in the 2-6% range. So these numbers are not surprising to me.

#101 Don Guillermo on 12.06.19 at 12:53 pm

#96 Ubul on 12.06.19 at 12:20 pm
#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 9:48 am
aking of trust.
What happened to all those jobs the liberals were bragging about heading into the October election?

Worst job numbers since the financial crises, right after election. Were we fed cooked numbers before the election?
********************************************

We were fed cooked everything before the election. Bought and paid for state media at its finest.

#102 SunDays on 12.06.19 at 1:23 pm

#90 Rory on 12.06.19 at 11:21 am
I couldn’t be more bullish on Toronto real estate.
————-
If you can articulate the bear case too, then I believe that you know what you are doing.

I will help you out. Toronto is #39 on the “2019 Best&Worst Cities for Expats” ranking, while Montreal is #5 and Vancouver is #55:
https://www.internations.org/expat-insider/2019/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-expats-39894

#103 Sail away on 12.06.19 at 1:26 pm

#91 Alpha Bravo on 12.06.19 at 11:39 am
#6 Sail away

His wife has two siblings, so applying her inheritance, they’ve saddled themselves with a $900k mortgage they see as an “investment”.
Why would anyone choose to live their entire life destitute in the city?
Crazy. Life decisions make a difference.
————————————-
You are making an assumption here that they will remain there till their dying day. There are many people that took a chance at home ownership in 2003-2005, mortgaged heavily (sacrificed), and have been rewarded in equity. If your BIL is happy, be happy for him rather than snicker at his decisions.

—————————————

Point taken. For context, I’ve watched 20 years of decisions lead to a current position of no assets and student loan debt, car debt, loc debt, credit card debt, etc, while my own financial situation went opposite.

He’s similar to my bird dogs who are very enthusiastic, engaging and excellent with pheasants, but refuse to learn finances and should never be trusted off leash in a city. Yes, I know that’s patronizing…

I really hope not to end up with another Vancouver house since the last one was acquired in sort of a similar situation

#104 Sail away on 12.06.19 at 1:32 pm

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 12:25 pm
@#90 Rory
“And no, a home on 40 acres in the country isolated and alone isn’t appealing to me….”
****
Awesome .
We wont be neighbors.
Enjoy the traffic.

—————————–

Fartz, I thought you lived in a multires in the middle of the city? Your recent posts make me think the Sahotas just bought the building….

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.19 at 2:05 pm

@#104 Sailing Away

Yep.
I’m a beehive dweller for now.
Plan on pulling up stakes in a few years and moving as far away from the Lower Brain Land as physically possible…

#106 JUDGE DREDD on 12.06.19 at 2:31 pm

#98 Dogman01,

Actually, 2+2= 5.

Soon we will all see 5 lights.

#107 Gravy Train on 12.06.19 at 3:23 pm

#82 Sail Away on 12.06.19 at 9:56 am
“Willie Nelson explains it: […] As the husband of my grandmother, I am my own grandpa.” You could also become your own grandpa by marrying the daughter of your son’s wife. :)

#108 DON on 12.06.19 at 9:32 pm

#85 Mattl on 12.06.19 at 10:25 am

#56 DON – what are you rambling about? My point was that you can see the direction the market is moving from the RE Board. Clearly that direction is down, no matter what the release letter says. I don’t see the point in getting all worked up about a CTV FOMO report, or a board release letter when the underlying data is available and easy to interpret.

You have a tendency to quote one small piece of my post and then go on a rant that has nothing to do with what I posted about. I think you believe that I’m a RE pumper – I’m not, we have a small RE position relative to income / net worth.

But great rant on layoffs and median incomes, not sure what that has to do with RE Board stats. Maybe chase some other poster around for a bit?
*****************

“Ranting”, “Rambling”, “tendency to quote”

You forgot my personal Mattl rebuttal ‘Howling at the Moon’. Your debating style is lacking to say the least and juvenile at best.

The point of my initial response was for you to ‘look in the mirror’ with your response on listening to realtors etc, but discounting others as being doomers even when they provide evidence (which you seem to never do).

FOMO reports helped to fuel the market and create the debt situation that we face today.

AND we will all face the consequences to some degree, sooner or later (even if you have a secure job).

The banks layoffs and loan losses show that things are not OK, to say the least. Our economy is on borrowed time and no one is pointing to any green shoots on the horizon.

Your own research shows that sales are slowing.

Once again just so it sticks, we will all be affected by the next recession. But this time Canadians and governments at all levels are walking in with record debt and inflated real estate valuations. Only a matter of time. We are not in the same position as the US, they had their correction.

All I am saying is, take off the blinders and allow new information to challenge your assumptions and prepare your life accordingly. I have seen many stubborn people loose their shirts in recessions because ‘they didn’t see it coming’ (FOMO induced – head in the sand thinking). Looking back even the experts didn’t see the Great Recession coming only the ‘boots on the ground did’, the power of unbiased observations.

If you choose to allow realtors and media distort information so be it. I trust their information will be valuable components of your decision making process in the future. Good luck!