The slathering

Why do big-city houses cost so much and rents are bonkers? Yeah, mortgages are too cheap and house lust too strong. But as big a reason as any comes packaged in one word: investors. Half all new condos and four in ten existing ones have been snapped up by people with no intention of living there. A bunch are speckers who rent them out (many in negative cash flow). A pile more are Airbnbers. In fact that company now has more than 22,000 listings in Toronto alone – at a time when the rental vacancy rate’s barely over 1%.

As mentioned here recently, Toronto is trying to crack down on the pseudo-hotel business. So far, no impact. In fact the number of Airbnb places for the GTA has actually increased since anti-rental rules were approved.

Let’s compare that with Boston. Politicians there are apparently tough mothers.

Airbnb scrubbed more than three-quarters its listings for the city (from 4,000 to less than 800) this week after Boston banned short-term rentals in any dwelling not owner-occupied for at least nine months of the year. Hosts may own only one single listing (in Toronto there are scads of people with multiple offerings – it’s a business), and they must register annually with the city. Plus pay a licensing fee.

“Across the city, rents are growing more and more out of reach,” says councillor Michelle, sounding familiar.  “Through closing the corporate loopholes for de facto hotels in residential neighborhoods while preserving homeowners’ ability to benefit from home-sharing, the regulations are designed to help more Bostonians stay in their homes.”

Expect more of this. Everywhere Airbnb operates it has helped boost property values, turned homes into hotels, depressed vacancy rates, made real estate less affordable and increased rents – as well as endangering the business models and jobs of people legitimately in the hospitality business, many of them lowly-paid and vulnerable. It’s a scourge. Like vaping. Tats. And that godawful Drake.

Airbnb is getting ready for a blockbuster IPO next year. Don’t even think about investing. You’ll regret it.

$     $     $

Also big news: no rate change from the Bank of Canada (as expected) , Trump calls Trudeau ‘two-faced’ (a step up from blackface) while Calgary is down again, Toronto isn’t and Vancouver sputters, despite the headlines.

Cowtown and Montreal remain the two most affordable big-city markets in the nation. Prices in the second-largest urban area have been going up steadily, month after month, while in Calgary it’s been a story of continual decline. If you’ve been trying to flog a condo in Alberta’s main city you know the story – falling prices, no buyers, no showings and certainly no offers.  Overall the average price of real estate has dropped another 4.5% from a year ago and sellers are giving up, with listings off 11%.

At least the realtors are being truthful: “Achieving more stable conditions will take time. While the amount of supply in the market continues to ease, the persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices.”

As Wexit sentiment grows, prices will crumble. Be careful, rebels, what you wish for.

More price declines in Vancouver, too. Sales were up a lot from last November (55%) but dropped from the month before (-12%). Prices overall are almost 5% less than last autumn and detached homes have slipped about 6% (to $1.4 million), although a lot more sold (825 as opposed to 516).

So here we are, two years into the Dipper war on VYR real estate and the average price is still just a hair under $1 million. Condos average more than $650,000, and sales of apartments have jumped 50%. Demand has been pushed down to lower price ranges, jacking the cost of units people can afford, while detacheds stay firmly out of reach. And this is in a market where foreign buyers have exited – kicked out by punitive taxes and xenophobic nastiness.

Conclusions: (a) politicians have no idea what they’re doing and are making stuff up as they go along. Like the 25% hike coming in the empty-houses levy. Taxing real estate as never before has not crashed prices. Just hurt owners. (b) The Chinese invasion wasn’t a thing. Punting offshore buyers hasn’t made it any easier for average families to buy average houses. That’s because the impact was over-stated by government and media, and gave people something to hate and blame – when they should have been looking in the mirror.

Real estate is a cult and a fetish in the LM. It’s all people talk about. It’s the goal of their existence on this earth. And they are paying the price of obsession.

Toronto?

The realtors say sales are up year/year (14%), listing down (-22%) and prices ahead (7%). The credit is going to cheap mortgages and a drop in inventory. Of course you will recall that study described here a few days ago which found 70% of sales in a hot Toronto hood were below the asking price. So, who do you believe?

In any case, the average detached house (at $1.36 million) is still lower than it was three years ago, despite all the pumping, the rock-bottom mortgage costs, the political pandering and media slathering. Apparently there are better places to put your money. Who knew?

 

109 comments ↓

#1 n1tro on 12.04.19 at 4:31 pm

The answer is A! A little bit of B. Is there a choice C for all of the above?

#2 Lost...but not leased on 12.04.19 at 4:34 pm

Phyrrztt !

RE never goes ______?!?

#3 Dave on 12.04.19 at 4:41 pm

What will speed up the price decline in Metro Vancouver??? Prices just are not dropping as fast as they were rising a few years ago

#4 Jeff on 12.04.19 at 4:43 pm

Garth, interesting you note a correlation between vacancy rates, housing prices and AirBnB. Have you seen any studies or articles on this?

#5 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 12.04.19 at 4:46 pm

at least we are still
1 horse
2 bit
with a semi-pro football team
I luv it

https://www.cjme.com/2019/12/04/housing-sales/

#6 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 12.04.19 at 4:54 pm

“The slathering”–Garth

Speaking of slathering, let us spread this on thick.

In addition to all his other numerous and amazing good deeds, the Great Physician Donald J. Trump has been busy healing people. As a Man of Action, The Donald really gets around. Not only is President Trump a Good American, he is also a Good Samaritan.

Check out this 5 minute YouTube video of President Trump with Natalie Harp (Right to Try):

Good Samaritan Donald J. Trump with Natalie Harp

That is the fakest, most politically-engineered performance I have ever seen. – Garth

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 4:54 pm

Well
The apartment building I live in just got bought out by a landlord from Toronto about 3 months ago..
They do not have a good reputation.
They won the “Golden Cockroach” award in TO in 2010 as the worst landlords in the city.
They have “inspected” every apartment 4 times in the past month and have now announce “renovations” on vacant suites.

“Jackhammering will commence Monday to Friday from 7am to 8pm
Saturdays jackhammering will start at 8am to 8pm.”

Renovictions by any other name…….

A washing machine has been broken for a month
” thank you for your patience”……

The elevator “upgrade” has been going on for 8 months with no end in sight……. 1 elevator for an 18 story building for 8 months….awesome

ALL the tenants are livid and ready for battle.
Stay tuned.

Does no elevator mean you may explode? – Garth

#8 Linda on 12.04.19 at 5:03 pm

About the AirBnb thing. If the intent is to force all those investors/speckers to rent out their property full time I can’t see it lowering housing costs for those who are in the market to rent. As was pointed out on this very blog, the reason why owners embraced AirBnb is that 1) all rentals are short term; 2) the renters do not present any landlord tenant issues such as not paying the rent, rent controls, eviction etc. though there is of course the risk the renters may trash the unit. If that happens, AirBnb has insurance to cover the cost; 3) the price per night is both lower than the local hotel/motel offerings but if rentals are constant provides enough income to cover all costs. Which as has been pointed out in this blog is usually not the case for long term rentals. There are doubtless other benefits accruing to owners in addition to the above.

So let’s say the GTA does emulate Boston & impose all sorts of conditions to limit or even terminate the AirBnb business. Owners at that point will either sell – presumably at a profit, which the government will happily tax but which will undoubtedly be at a price that will still not be ‘affordable’ to those looking to purchase or rent but price the rental so that all their costs are covered plus enough profit to pay the aforementioned government taxes. Which may still not be ‘affordable’ for those looking for housing either. Plus if these are condo units would the condo boards permit long term rentals? If they don’t & enforce, then the units will still sit empty unless the owner occupies it or sells to someone who will. Or will the government pass a law forcing condo boards to permit rentals regardless of the impact to how the building is managed/maintained, helpfully assisting in the potential destruction of property value at owner’s expense?

Quick question: if the aforementioned 22,000 units were available to rent, would that solve the current housing woes or simply alleviate them given the population of the GTA? Any estimates on how much potential ‘relief’ would accrue?

#9 FreeBird on 12.04.19 at 5:06 pm

@#4 Jeff
Garth, interesting you note a correlation between vacancy rates, housing prices and AirBnB. Have you seen any studies or articles on this?
————————-

Quick search using ‘correlation…AirBnB’ found info below. Garth can answer how vacancy rates effect housing/condo values.

“…suggesting an increasing commercialization of STRs and a correspondingly increasing threat to housing affordability across Canada.”

(This paper is slow to load but good)
https://upgo.lab.mcgill.ca/publication/short-term-rentals-in-canada/short-term-rentals-in-canada.pdf

https://ruor.uottawa.ca/bitstream/10393/35791/1/Horton_Tyler_2016_researchpaper.pdf

https://hbr.org/2019/04/research-when-airbnb-listings-in-a-city-increase-so-do-rent-prices

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5116941

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 5:12 pm

Does no elevator mean you may explode? – Garth

+++++

Oh Ye of little empathy……

There’s always the Lobby.

#11 Stone on 12.04.19 at 5:13 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 4:54 pm
Well
The apartment building I live in just got bought out by a landlord from Toronto about 3 months ago..
They do not have a good reputation.
They won the “Golden Cockroach” award in TO in 2010 as the worst landlords in the city.
They have “inspected” every apartment 4 times in the past month and have now announce “renovations” on vacant suites.

“Jackhammering will commence Monday to Friday from 7am to 8pm
Saturdays jackhammering will start at 8am to 8pm.”

Renovictions by any other name…….

A washing machine has been broken for a month
” thank you for your patience”……

The elevator “upgrade” has been going on for 8 months with no end in sight……. 1 elevator for an 18 story building for 8 months….awesome

ALL the tenants are livid and ready for battle.
Stay tuned.

Does no elevator mean you may explode? – Garth

———

Garth, how long have you been waiting to “toot” your horn on this specific scenario coming up in the comments section? Lol

#12 Buy? Curious? on 12.04.19 at 5:13 pm

If we are to take any positives from the Trump/Trudeau insult towards Donald is that at least he didn’t do it in “orange” face.

#13 earthboundmisfit on 12.04.19 at 5:17 pm

“gawdawful Drake” …. truer words were never spoken. A total embarrassment.

#14 NotLegalAdvice on 12.04.19 at 5:21 pm

The MIL and FIL are trying to influence us to buy a property. “buy a home now or you’ll regret it”, they say.

“Prices are going up 6% next year and will never come back down”. They lived through the real estate crash in the 90’s, but are very confident that prices will never drop again. They blame immigration (still at 1%).

Are they right or wrong? Only time will tell.

#15 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 12.04.19 at 5:22 pm

“That is the fakest, most politically-engineered performance I have ever seen.” – Garth

With even such experienced political animals as yourself conceding that President Trump’s most excellent performance was the very best you have ever seen, it is no wonder that he got elected, and will continue to get elected.

#16 WhobeDrake? on 12.04.19 at 5:23 pm

You mentioned Drake in your blog. I fail to see the relevance of bringing Sir Francis Drake into the discussion.

Signed a country bumpkin

#17 Lost...but no leased on 12.04.19 at 5:29 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 4:54 pm
Well
The apartment building I live in just got bought out by a landlord from Toronto about 3 months ago..
They do not have a good reputation.
They won the “Golden Cockroach” award in TO in 2010 as the worst landlords in the city.
They have “inspected” every apartment 4 times in the past month and have now announce “renovations” on vacant suites.

====

ALL the tenants are livid and ready for battle.
Stay tuned.

Does no elevator mean you may explode? – Garth

=======
PHd-artzmann

Your numerous posts exude brilliance at all levels of psycho cognitive cognitiveness ….on par with a No Bull Prize…as well as zero evidence of sarcasm or condescending comments.

Go Funned ME page = next.

#18 Rargary on 12.04.19 at 5:33 pm

BofC also saying maybe no rate decrease in 2020… hope is on the horizon! Get our economy to more normal, sane conditions. REALITY Garth, the Wexit’ers are killing our AB image! (Whatever is left of it). Me, my family, and many others would high-tail it out of AB if they were to move further forward on this.

#19 The Wet One on 12.04.19 at 5:38 pm

“And that godawful Drake.”

Garth…

Stop.
Being.
So.
Old!

Seriously. You’re the man yelling at clouds aren’t you?

Now get off my lawn!

;-)

#20 Sail away on 12.04.19 at 5:40 pm

#12 Buy? Curious? on 12.04.19 at 5:13 pm

If we are to take any positives from the Trump/Trudeau insult towards Donald is that at least he didn’t do it in “orange” face.

—————————————-

Don’t legitimize that garbage by calling it an insult- a proper insult is delivered directly and its meaning is clear to everyone, especially the recipient. If that were done, there could be some respect for Trudeau.

This was childish schoolboy snickering meant to denigrate in secret. Contemptible.

#21 Shawn Allen on 12.04.19 at 5:53 pm

Why Big-City Houses Cost sSo Much

Why do big-city houses cost so much and rents are bonkers? Yeah, mortgages are too cheap and house lust too strong. But as big a reason as any comes packaged in one word: investors. Half all new condos and four in ten existing ones have been snapped up by people with no intention of living there. A bunch are speckers who rent them out (many in negative cash flow). A pile more are Airbnbers. In fact that company now has more than 22,000 listings in Toronto alone – at a time when the rental vacancy rate’s barely over 1%.

*******************************
All true…

Ultimately rents are high also because people want to live in big cities where the work (and play) is.

House and Condo prices in big cities are high partly for the same reason. Most people simply want to live in Cities. They have voted with their wallets.

Big cities continue to grow faster than small ones and certainly faster than rural areas.

In any case for lots of reasons we have lots of Demand for houses and condos. Do we have enough supply coming on? Are there barriers to condo / apartment supply including the single-family home belt? How much of a problem are rent controls in discouraging new supply?

#22 Treasure Island CEO - 38,057,483.88 on 12.04.19 at 6:00 pm

BC RE is making a major turn around. Regardless of the speculation of what is causing it the money is flowing in hot again.

New price records being achieved in Victoria and Kelowna.

It is basically the adjustment in rates down and prices that previously softened.

So, here we are again in BC trending back to record prices.

With that being said, now is probably not the time to find a deal in BC.

#23 Smartalox on 12.04.19 at 6:01 pm

For Linda @#8:

I don’t know what the number of apartment listings to date has been for the GTA, but in greater Vancouver, the number of apartment listings Year to Date has been 23 000.

Even if the number of apartment listings in the GTA this year to date is twice that number, 46 000, if even half of the 22 000 air BnB listings were to suddenly be added to the pool of listings (in response to the new law, for example), that would be a 25% increase in supply, within a very short period.

That would be bound to drive down prices – and values – in the market, because prospective buyers would have much more choice.

Not just more supply flooding into the market though, also less demand: passing a law like Boston’s would cause would-be Air BnB investors to abandon those markets, too.

That’s a lot of unsold inventory!

#24 Snore shore on 12.04.19 at 6:10 pm

When Garth mentions Adele, all I hear is crickets. Say one thing about Drake and half of the blog dogs throw their paws up.

Get over it!

#25 april on 12.04.19 at 6:15 pm

#22 – Not according to Ross Kay, Howestreet yesterday.
You choose to believe the real estate industry numbers?

#26 yvr_lurker on 12.04.19 at 6:46 pm

I am not taking the bait today with Garth’s negative comments about the actions of the NDP on housing in YVR. Just give it a further 5 years on this path and then we can talk about affordability. However, if Hong Kong goes completely south and a good percentage of the 300K of well-off people with Canadian passports move to YVR, it will negate everything the NDP is trying to do by a huge spike in demand. If this comes about, this is when I check out of this city permanently.
——————–

On a more cheery and off-tangent note, If I was a young person starting my career in Computer Science, I would gravitate to learning as much as I can about operating systems and cyber security. Top notch people in this field are increasingly in high demand, and I predict that one day (rather soon) they will be able to write their own ticket $$$wise. The number of clever scams and “e-criminals” (a term here I made up) is also increasing like never before. I predict that this will be a HUGE enterprise going forward.

#27 Bob Dog on 12.04.19 at 6:49 pm

“Also big news: no rate change from the Bank of Canada (as expected) ”

Well there is your problem right there.

#28 Penny Henny on 12.04.19 at 6:49 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 4:54 pm
Well
The apartment building I live in just got bought out by a landlord from Toronto about 3 months ago..
They do not have a good reputation.
They won the “Golden Cockroach” award in TO in 2010 as the worst landlords in the city.
They have “inspected” every apartment 4 times in the past month and have now announce “renovations” on vacant suites.

“Jackhammering will commence Monday to Friday from 7am to 8pm
Saturdays jackhammering will start at 8am to 8pm.”

Renovictions by any other name…….

A washing machine has been broken for a month
” thank you for your patience”……

The elevator “upgrade” has been going on for 8 months with no end in sight……. 1 elevator for an 18 story building for 8 months….awesome

ALL the tenants are livid and ready for battle.
Stay tuned.
////////////////

renting sounds splendid!

#29 Linda on 12.04.19 at 6:53 pm

#18 ‘Margery’ – hear you on the Wexit thing but wonder if the cost of departure will force folks to stay put. If you can’t sell your property or are forced to sell it at a loss & if you belong to a public pension plan that the Alberta government has control of (potentially even former CPP benefits) seems like golden handcuffs to me.

#23 ‘SmartAlex’ – in theory it ‘should’ drive prices down but what if the units can’t be sold without financial loss to the current owner? What if the units can’t be rented long term because condo rules prevent it? 23,000 units sounds like a lot, but balance that against the number of Canadians retiring daily who might want to live on the West Coast. I can see how that supply could disappear faster than one might think possible. Unless of course the government stepped in & mandated that sales could only be to current B.C. residents…..

#30 Linda on 12.04.19 at 6:54 pm

#18 – I did type your name with an ‘R’. Dratted autocorrect!

#31 Christina @ Bargainblog on 12.04.19 at 6:58 pm

Fartzy,

May I call you Fartzy? I’m rather a fan of your comments on here. I had to send sympathy for the horrible bloating you must be experiencing with this elevator debacle! (I also giggled at Garth’s ‘exploding’ comment.) Sorry, friend, but it was too good to ‘pass’ up. Heehee

All jokes aside – my parents live on an 11th floor. When there were ongoing elevator repairs in their building, I was downright concerned for them. My Mom’s mobility is not that great anymore. The office had a list of folks who would’ve needed assistance in case of an emergency, but it still made me nervous.

#32 joblo on 12.04.19 at 7:10 pm

As Gavin McInnes put it, Calgary the next Detroit.

T2 twojets two faced, whatta kountry Kanada.

#33 akashic record on 12.04.19 at 7:16 pm

High rent: Airbnbers vs population growth?

If there was no steady huge population growth in the GTA, Airbnb would not matter. Airbnb promotes tourism, generate revenue from other jurisdictions for the city.

#34 Linda on 12.04.19 at 7:18 pm

About the possibility that Alberta might withdraw from CPP & set up a provincially run pension plan like Quebec. Does anyone know for sure if contributions paid into CPP would remain with CPP? News articles seem to suggest Alberta would have those funds transferred over from the CPP, but what if the people who paid into CPP want those funds to remain there & not be handed over to Alberta? Do the contributors get any say in this?

#35 Real-estate Drake on 12.04.19 at 7:26 pm

Started from affordable, now we’re here
Started from a good income to average ratio, now the whole housing market’s fizzin’ here

I done kept it real-estate from the jump
Livin’ at my momma’s house, ‘cos I can’t afford T.O.

Started from the bottom, now we’re here….

#36 Dave on 12.04.19 at 7:31 pm

Solution is simple: ban foreign ownership like so many other countries have already done. Trudeau lacks the integrity to stand up to China so not much will change

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 7:33 pm

@#28 penny henny
“renting sounds splendid!”
++++

It was….until these A-holes bought the building.

#38 Dave on 12.04.19 at 7:34 pm

he Chinese invasion wasn’t a thing. Punting offshore buyers hasn’t made it any easier for average families to buy average houses. That’s because the impact was over-stated by government and media,

That’s crap and you know it.
Take a look around Vancouver

Wow. People of Asian heritage who were born here. Must be a plot. – Garth

#39 bdy sktrn on 12.04.19 at 7:54 pm

#3 Dave on 12.04.19 at 4:41 pm
What will speed up the price decline in Metro Vancouver??? Prices just are not dropping as fast as they were rising a few years ago
————————–
you are not keeping up.
prices are now rising and listings shrinking last 4 out of 4 months.
yes y/y still lower but not for long.

we have hit and passed the bottom. its obvious.

sales up 54% y/y. where do you think prices will follow?

hey you ungodly Toron-tonyians, you may want to take notice, you tend to be a year behind our trends.

#40 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:00 pm

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/20/fear-of-reversal-rates-sets-in-says-the-fed/

“Reversal rates” is the term for a situation where interest rates are so low that they’re doing more harm than good to the overall economy, and that lowering rates further will screw up the economy rather than boost it.

Low interest rates distort the pricing of risk. Risk is priced via the cost of capital. Normally, investors demand a larger return to compensate them for a higher risk.

But if central banks push interest rates too low, this essential function doesn’t function anymore. While investors are taking more and more risk to make a little return, unprofitable projects get funded cheaply, encouraging misallocation of capital.

#41 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:04 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/4388427/new-zealand-bans-foreign-home-buyers/

New Zealand bans foreigners from buying homes
August 15, 2018

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117411737/new-zealands-median-house-price-passes-600000-for-first-time-real-estate-institute

New Zealand’s median house price passes $600,000 for first time
Nov 14, 2019

#42 meslippery on 12.04.19 at 8:05 pm

Does no elevator mean you may explode? – Garth
——
Its not like you get to follow Penny up the stairs.

#43 Danny Boyd on 12.04.19 at 8:08 pm

You should see the big drops in UK property funds 20%+ losses and investors can’t get their money out of these mutual funds for awhile now. This could be coming to Canada in just years.

#44 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:13 pm

Wow. People of Asian heritage who were born here. Must be a plot. – Garth

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/vancouver-fourth-for-foreign-born-residents-but-is-it-cosmopolitan

More than 45 per cent of Metro Vancouver residents are foreign born, according to the 2011 census. There are only three major cities on the globe that have a higher percentage of foreign-born residents.

They are Dubai, Brussels and Toronto.

Yes, it’s 46% in Toronto. No outcry. Grow up. – Garth

#45 Ronaldo on 12.04.19 at 8:13 pm

#21 Shawn Allen

This article may be of interest to you.

https://www.straight.com/news/1259451/petition-aims-cap-rent-hikes-after-tenant-leaves

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:16 pm

@#31 Christina
“The office had a list of folks who would’ve needed assistance in case of an emergency,”
+++++

Of course you can call me Fartzy, we’re all friends here….unless you’re Ponzie.
Anywho.
The new owners have left the “old” ,defunct, emergency number up on the walls of every floor by the elevator hall call buttons ( can you say “liability”? I knew you could)
They have slapped typed notes in the elevator and lobby with four….yes….. four different numbers to call in the event of an emergency….all of them 1-800-who-cares.

I wont be waiting for the almost non existant property “managers’ to save me in the event of a fire….
Speaking of which.
The old owners did the legally required, monthly fire bell tests which ended back in Sept when the new owners took over….

Time to drop a line to the Fire Inspector…..
Then the elevator inspector….
Then the boiler inspector……
Then the building inspector….

#47 Ronaldo on 12.04.19 at 8:21 pm

A friend just purchased a nice condo in good part of Red Deer for 18% less than the owners paid for it back in 2007. Suspect worse to come yet. Pretty hefty haircut.

#48 IHCTD9 on 12.04.19 at 8:22 pm

Whatever is driving the price increases in GTA/GVRD, I’m thinking a reversal to affordability will require something that really puts a bad taste in just about everyone’s mouth when they think about owning.

Like a giant earthquake, a super volcano – a total turn off. Maybe a good hard universal spanking of specuvestors would do it too.

Whatever it will be, it only needs to carry on another 10 years or so to pretty much financially wreck a fat slice of big city millenials. The RE glass is getting shorter by the year, and the older Mils are sneaking up on 40 already.

What happens when piles of Mils show up at 50 with no big assets and nothing saved?

#49 Ronaldo on 12.04.19 at 8:27 pm

The consequences of rent control

https://www.policyed.org/intellections/no-vacancy/video-0

If I recall, something similar happened in the early 70’s when the NDP under Barrett imposed rent conrols which led to the formation of BC Housing Corporation.

#50 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:28 pm

https://www.dw.com/en/australia-cuts-interest-rate-to-record-low/a-50652767

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a historic low of 0.75%. It’s the third time the cash rate has been lowered this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/02/australian-house-prices-record-biggest-monthly-rise-since-2003

Australian house prices record biggest monthly rise since 2003

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:32 pm

@#41 Demo Mob Rule
“New Zealand’s median house price passes $600,000 for first time…”
++++

Still a hellava deal when you realize the Kiwi $600k is only $518k Canuck !
I’d be the “down under” King of the world!

Time for me to renounce my Canuck passport and maybe marry a Maori…
If I could only get past the facial tattoo’s

#52 Chaddywack on 12.04.19 at 8:59 pm

I now rent a house in a swanky area of Vancouver that is owned by a Chinese national. I could never afford to own this house, but i’m benefitting precisely because of the empty homes tax…….seems like it’s working ok otherwise this house would still be sitting empty and I’d be living in my old dump in east van with the doobie brothers living next door.

#53 TRUMP2020 on 12.04.19 at 9:12 pm

DELETED

#54 Debtslavecreator on 12.04.19 at 9:22 pm

Just wait for Justin and Jagmeet Singh to pass their first budget
Cap gains inclusion going up to 75% which will kill the investor and may trigger a sharp correction but if they also decide to come after your primary residence equity

As owners in Vancouver just found out, the “climate change emergency “ fraud / propaganda is now used to justify massive / confiscatory tax increases which will only get more and more brazen

Govts are broke. Bond holders / banks and insurance companies and greedy / corrupt politicians now need an excuse to explode your cost of living via massive taxes on EVERYTHING and you’ll have NO WAY out except to sell before the masses begin to default

It’s right in front of you folks

Communism 2.0 – left and right wing fascism blended together

#55 Shawn Allen on 12.04.19 at 9:34 pm

What Percent Foreign Born?

#44 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:13 pm
Wow. People of Asian heritage who were born here. Must be a plot. – Garth

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/vancouver-fourth-for-foreign-born-residents-but-is-it-cosmopolitan

More than 45 per cent of Metro Vancouver residents are foreign born, according to the 2011 census. There are only three major cities on the globe that have a higher percentage of foreign-born residents.

They are Dubai, Brussels and Toronto.

Yes, it’s 46% in Toronto. No outcry. Grow up. – Garth

*********************************
46% of Toronto residents are foreign born and 45% in Vancouver?

Wow, that does sound high.

I admit, I am shocked by those figures. I simply never realized it was that high.

We are indeed a cosmopolitan country it seems.

#56 TRUMP2020 on 12.04.19 at 9:40 pm

GARTH …. THE LOUSY CANADIAN GOVERNMENT PUPPET.

HOW PATHETIC!!!!!

NOT FOR THE PEOPLE… FOR THE INCOMPETENT PUPPET MASTERS

THERE ALL THE SAME!!!!

#57 april on 12.04.19 at 10:19 pm

#39 – sales up 55% due to new homes being built and bought in 2016/17/18 and recently closed. No “hot housing market” as the realty industry would have us believe.

#58 akashic record on 12.04.19 at 10:26 pm

#44 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 12.04.19 at 8:13 pm

Wow. People of Asian heritage who were born here. Must be a plot. – Garth

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/vancouver-fourth-for-foreign-born-residents-but-is-it-cosmopolitan

More than 45 per cent of Metro Vancouver residents are foreign born, according to the 2011 census. There are only three major cities on the globe that have a higher percentage of foreign-born residents.

They are Dubai, Brussels and Toronto.

Yes, it’s 46% in Toronto. No outcry. Grow up. – Garth

No correlation with the highest real estate price growth in Vancouver and Toronto, vs. rest of Canada, either?

The outcry about affordability is loud and clear.

#59 april on 12.04.19 at 10:37 pm

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada – “Of all Canadians abroad surveyed, 83% expressed strong sentiments about their potential to make a meaningful contribution as Canadian citizens living in Hong Kong. Their level of attachment to Canada, however, remains mixed. Only 16% considered Canada as their home ‘all the time’, while 37% said ‘never’. Moreover, 35% said they would ‘almost never’ consider returning to Canada”. Doesn’t sound like a flood of Canadians returning to
Vancouver if things go “south”.

#60 NoName on 12.04.19 at 10:41 pm

farts and Maori woman, wedding would be definitely something to see and experience if would happen. Iam.just wondering how would you go thru all haka without letting it rip…

Wedding Haka
https://youtu.be/TuTWyVFs_XU

#61 Eco Capitalist on 12.04.19 at 10:45 pm

@#51 Crowded

Hate to break the news, but that doesn’t work there:

https://nomadcapitalist.com/2018/08/29/how-to-get-new-zealand-citizenship/

#62 Dumb Wealth on 12.04.19 at 10:52 pm

Bank of Canada is the last holdout in this new mini-easing cycle. IF a growth slowdown does actually materialize, the Bank of Canada will have to play catchup and CAD will tank.

In other news, Standard and Poors today released their Persistence Scorecard for portfolio managers. As you probably imagine, the results are sad.

https://dumbwealth.com/time-to-stop-loving-that-hot-portfolio-manager/

#63 Sail Away on 12.04.19 at 11:05 pm

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:32 pm

“New Zealand’s median house price passes $600,000 for first time…”
++++

…the Kiwi $600k is only $518k Canuck !
I’d be the “down under” King of the world!

Time for me to renounce my Canuck passport and maybe marry a Maori…
If I could only get past the facial tattoo’s

————————————–

Oh, you’d be the one compromising? Just stay out of elevators or the shine will be off that pumpkin…

#64 Point Blank on 12.04.19 at 11:14 pm

DELETED

#65 Rargary on 12.04.19 at 11:19 pm

Linda on 12.04.19 at 6:54 pm

#18, 30 and 34 – I did type your name with an ‘R’. Dratted autocorrect… true Linda. But no Wexit, all hype. Albeeta pension plan? Quite possible unfortunately. Kenney might ask us for input, but his trend is plow ahead and screw the sheeple views

#66 SunDays on 12.04.19 at 11:40 pm

#48 IHCTD9 on 12.04.19 at 8:22 pm
Whatever is driving the price increases in GTA/GVRD, I’m thinking a reversal to affordability will require something that really puts a bad taste in just about everyone’s mouth when they think about owning.
————-
The keyword for housing price increases is: jobs. Toronto is a job creator, which attracts people from all over the world. In turn, more dwellings/infrastructure need to be built and more services provided, which also create jobs. It is a self-reinforcing loop. Housing affordability will only return when Toronto stops being attractive as a destination for int’l immigrants for whatever reasons.

This City Created More Tech Jobs Than the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., Combined
https://fortune.com/2018/07/25/tech-jobs-bay-area-san-francisco-toronto/

Toronto’s economy roars while the rest of Ontario hollows out
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-torontos-economy-roars-while-the-rest-of-ontario-hollows-out

#67 RWZM on 12.05.19 at 12:41 am

More of the same:

1. And are rents in Boston (and the prognosis for rents in Boston) much improved in the grand scheme of things since AirBnB was suppressed? Didn’t think so.

2. “The Chinese invasion wasn’t a thing. Punting offshore buyers hasn’t made it any easier…” – The Chinese thing was never about above-the-table offshore buyers and you know that

3. You “described” a study about 70% of Toronto houses selling for less than asking. I don’t believe you linked to it or cited anything. I was trying to find it.

#68 Survivor on 12.05.19 at 1:12 am

DELETED

#69 Dr V on 12.05.19 at 1:16 am

40 Mob rule – interesting link. Makes some good sense. thanks

#70 DON on 12.05.19 at 1:49 am

@#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:16 pm

A family friend was visiting from Victoria, she stays in a high rise for over 50s. New management – without hot water for days, heat, elevator down to one. It’s been going on for months. Now they are charging for parking, and the outdoor pool has been shut down. Some have moved out and the places were renovated.

#71 GRG on 12.05.19 at 2:01 am

“…As Wexit sentiment grows, prices will crumble. Be careful, rebels, what you wish for…”

You have it backwards Garth. If Wexit sentiment is growing (debatable), crumbling home prices is one of the catalysts, not one of the consequences.

People in Alberta are beyond whining; a growing number are now truly fearful. Fearful of losing their livelihoods, fearful about their ability to support their families, fearful about what the future holds for their children. And that is what stokes the resentment towards our incompetent political class, too many of whom are shielded from the financial consequences of their own policies.

Wexit is a “sky-is-falling” fringe side show. The Alberta equivalent of Greta Thunberg. Cheap entertainment.

Even in Alberta virtually nobody takes Provincial separation from Canada seriously. Besides anyone with a functioning brain cell is too busy Wexiting their capital, and often themselves from both Alberta and Canada. It will take more than the re-election of T2, the reappointment of Morneau and soothing words from Freeland to stem the capital outflows and the brain drain that is now accelerating.

The next Canadian recession, when it finally arrives, is shaping up to be a doozy. Albertans will be well prepared, since they are already in it.

#72 I. Ron Yee on 12.05.19 at 7:25 am

No love for Drake here, but he is hardly our biggest (inter)national embarrassment.

#73 Phylis on 12.05.19 at 7:46 am

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:16 pm Help out the new owners. Post those phone numbers next to the others.

#74 Phylis on 12.05.19 at 7:54 am

#48 IHCTD9 on 12.04.19 at 8:22 pm What happens when piles of Mils show up at 50 with no big assets and nothing saved?

Simple. The younger generations will be blaming them for everything and saying OK Milly. Mils will scratch their heads. A few will have a lightbulb moment and disassociate themselves from the head scratchers.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:06 am

@#70 Don
“Some have moved out and the places were renovated.”
++++

Yep.
Reno-victions.
Broken elevators.
No heat.
No water.
Minimal maintenance.
Endless renovation noise.

And the politicians from the municipal, provincial and federal levels all refuse to deal with the newest version of “slum lords’.
The slum lords who use their money, lawyers and political influence to hammer the middle class that cant afford to buy a ridiculously priced home or condo.

REITS that snap up buildings and purge the slovenly, low brow renters for “renos” so they can earn their investors even more money.
Tossing hundreds out on the street to try and find another rental.
While the politicians wait until the next election to stand in front of a sign announcing “25 new co op apartments”….to be ready in 2- 3 years….for people who are on welfare…..no one else need apply.

Torches and pitchforks time….

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 8:31 am

Hmmmm.
Does China offer REITS in Canada?

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/12/04/hospital-union-says-senior-care-needs-more-scrutiny-after-3-centres-taken-under-govt-control/

The almighty dollar Trumps all…. including elderly care homes….

#77 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.05.19 at 9:02 am

@Crowdie-

Maybe BC should separate?

#78 Dharma Bum on 12.05.19 at 9:11 am

Toronto is trying to crack down on the pseudo-hotel business. So far, no impact. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Hah!

Toronto politicians. What a sad, sad joke.

Trying to crack down on something.

The sorry dupes can’t even bring Toronto property taxes to the level that they should be in order to fund their own insane deficit.

Zero balls. Zero vision.

That’s Toronto politicians.

#79 Stan Brooks on 12.05.19 at 9:24 am

The sheeple gets deeper in debt.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadians-ramp-up-mortgage-borrowing-200819340.html

Food getting more expensive:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-canadian-family-will-spend-487-more-on-food-in-2020-164353623.html

..with vegetable prices spiking by 12 per cent year-over-year..

Remember, there is no inflation.

Repeat with me: Life is great, expensive is cheap, crap is quality, poor is rich, cold is warm.

Cheers,

#80 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 9:27 am

‘banned short-term rentals in any dwelling not owner-occupied’

Not an unreasonable solution IMO

#81 SimplyPut7 on 12.05.19 at 9:38 am

#48 IHCTD9 on 12.04.19 at 8:22 pm

Rent is really high in the GTA. It’s about $2,000 to find a 1 bed condo near cheap transit in the city of Toronto and $1700 if you go to the outer parts of the GTA.

While rents for entire houses in the 905 are cheaper ($2000-2400) you have to pay at least $150-$300 in utilities and find a way to get back into the city if you work downtown Toronto ($200-$400 for transit).

The people I know who have bought in the last 12 months are not poor or lower-middle-class (I’m sure they feel poor after buying a home in this market, but it was their choice to be house rich and cash poor). They either had equity in their houses to make lateral moves in the housing market, they bought older condos with stable maintenance fees or they had been saving for years for a downpayment on a house.

All seem to understand that the home prices are too high and are not sustainable but the money they would pay in rent could be used to pay down the mortgage especially since mortgage rates are still low and most of that money would go to repayment of the principal and not interest. None of them bought anything that was more than 5 times their income and could probably handle a 25% drop in housing prices as their mortgage balance in 5 years would be less than the value of the home.

That being said, who knows how home prices will change when we find out who bought all of the investment condos being built. Or when the Liberals/NDP taxes homeowners to get more rentals on the market and reduce speculation in the housing market.

If the throne speech today hints the government will force empty homes to go back on the market (for rent or for sale) and people get to live in places they could never afford like #52 Chaddywack on 12.04.19 at 8:59 pm. That may throw a wrench in some speculators/future landlords dream of charging higher rents to offset the cost of owning these expensive properties if the supply of homes available for rent or sale drastically increases.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 10:16 am

@#73 Phylis
” Help out the new owners. Post those phone numbers next to the others….”
++++

Why should I do their job?
They are a “property management company” that is intentionally driving tenants out so they can jack the rents…
And judging from the first 3 months of filth, unrepaired maintenance items, the endless suite “inspections”, memos taped to walls, and no one answering calls during business hours, unacknowledged telephone and emails requests…….
I should help THEM?
From what?
Their own sloth and incompetence?

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 10:18 am

@#77 Bytor
“Maybe BC should separate?”
++++
bwahahaha, yeah. That’ll solve everything….

#84 Cottingham a bargain on 12.05.19 at 10:28 am

Toronto is the fastest growing city in the country and growing at three times the fastest rate of the fastest growing city in North America . Source police services board.

Why does anyone actually think that prices will ever decline in the GTA? Delusion perhaps ?

#85 Mattl on 12.05.19 at 11:03 am

I guess I’m the outlier but I don’t find the monthly real estate reports to be that hard to interpret. The data is all there to make your own call on where the market is headed. And the only thing that really matters is YOY. RE is incredibly seasonal, MOM is mostly useless.

Example – Central Okanagan looks like it exploded MOM and YTD. But it’s clear that a few large sales drove volume – and average price – way up. And good on them, the local RE board acknowledged this. But even if they didn’t, it takes about 5 minutes and grade 12 math to understand what is actually happening in the market.

So I have no sympathy for those that are feeling duped by the RE boards. If you can’t take the 10 minutes as month to go through the data that’s on you.

#86 Stan Brooks on 12.05.19 at 11:06 am

#84 Cottingham a bargain on 12.05.19 at 10:28 am
Toronto is the fastest growing city in the country and growing at three times the fastest rate of the fastest growing city in North America . Source police services board.

Why does anyone actually think that prices will ever decline in the GTA? Delusion perhaps ?

That ‘growth’ is based on import of poor immigrants who can not afford rent, god forbid 1.5-2 millions shack or 1 million glass condos in GTA,

How much debt you think they can handle?

The whole ‘GTA’ housing giant, enormous gas bag is based on ultra-uber subprime mortgages, 1 trillion of which (out of total 1.6 trillion) are ‘insured’ by you/me/the taxpayer (trough guarantees on private and public ‘insurers’).

Why? Because it is subprime crap that the lenders do not want on their balance sheet/guess why?

The last ‘rich’ foreigners in GTA were the hong-kong-ers 20 years ago who ‘drove’ house prices to sub 300 k in Toronto for a SFH, compare that with 1.5-2 millions shacks in Vaughan or Mississauga, hell even Brampton ?!?)

And there is additional 200 billion in HELOC guaranteed by these ‘house values’.

When this thing blows up and it will, it will be epic and very, very smelly.

We continue to pile on debt over-leveraging with lower rates, instead of deleveraging as in US.

The result is ultra expensive life with close to zero quality to justify the cost.

I said it, will repeat it and and the idiots will laugh, but places like Romania and Turkey despite all problems are quickly overtaking us in terms of economy and quality of life.

The worse thing of course is the inflation, people now have 60 % of their standard in 2000, even lower with the younger hit even harder.

Look at the price of food at the grocery stores, at the 40 % smaller but over 100-150 % more expensive meals at the restaurants or the food courts./compared to 2000 for example.

And you know what? The inflation is just starting.

Just wait and see what happens next.

The delusional is you.

Cheers,

#87 Mattl on 12.05.19 at 11:10 am

#22 – Not according to Ross Kay, Howestreet yesterday.
You choose to believe the real estate industry numbers?

————————————————————-

Help me understand what you are claiming here? Is it your belief that the RE board is submitting false numbers? So if a house sells for 1MM, they submit it as a 1.2MM sale? Of that they are intentionally under representing the number of listing?

The RE board (pumpers) will always paint a positive picture, and guys like Ross Kay (doomers) are waiting for their 2007 predictions to come true.

Unless you have evidence that the RE is submitting false numbers, I’d suggest the data is where you should start if you want to understand a specific market.

#88 Stan Brooks on 12.05.19 at 11:24 am

Some more milking of the sheeple:

Condo Insurance Premiums Are Spiking In Canada, Threatening Resale Prices

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/condo-insurance-canada-145100939.html

Should we have a state insurer to ‘insure’ the leaky crappy 1 million bucks condos?

Note: this is not even related to the carbon tax increases coming. Climate change folks. 6th cold winter in a row, heater turned on (in June! this ‘summer’) in Toronto.

Cheers,

#89 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 11:27 am

#66 SunDays on 12.04.19 at 11:40 pm

The keyword for housing price increases is: jobs. Toronto is a job creator, which attracts people from all over the world. In turn, more dwellings/infrastructure need to be built and more services provided, which also create jobs. It is a self-reinforcing loop. Housing affordability will only return when Toronto stops being attractive as a destination for int’l immigrants for whatever reasons.

This City Created More Tech Jobs Than the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., Combined
https://fortune.com/2018/07/25/tech-jobs-bay-area-san-francisco-toronto/

Toronto’s economy roars while the rest of Ontario hollows out
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-torontos-economy-roars-while-the-rest-of-ontario-hollows-out
____________________________

So, the GTA has been what you describe for as long as I have lived near it. There are many more jobs (although of lower pay/quality) available now than when I was a kid – and the GTA population has since bloated like a dead coon on the side of the road.

The GTA HAS to be even more attractive to immigrants now than ever before – due to the jobs of course – but also because of the giant ethnoburbs that exist there today.

In short, over the almost 40 years I’ve known the GTA – all the things you have described have only increased.

My expectation is more of the same going forward with international immigrants packing themselves into the enclaves like sardines, and the GTA expanding and becoming more and more dense.

So that leaves two options:

1. Something external blows up the GTA economy big time and kills the job market.

2. The more growth/jobs feedback loop continues to the point where the ramifications thereof cause such a huge drop in quality of life, that only the “creme de la creme” jobs are worth the headaches and costs of actually living there.

I’m thinking #2 is much more likely, and this will not run it’s course over a year or two – it will take DECADES. This is what will screw anyone living there who cannot afford to buy and pay off a house and/or invest.

Looking at the above, it seems that for the vast majority of younger folks working in the GTA, they will retire with almost nothing to show for their 4 decades of work. That’s quite unlike my Gen X peers who are living in the GTA. The GTA has been VERY good to them on the financial side of things with good jobs and great pay, and insane RE appreciation. I can’t see how many Mils can possibly get the same treatment from the GTA anymore – it’s pretty much gone for good.

I think living well and retiring well in the GTA for today’s youth is now down to stable, married, well educated, good dual income couples only.

#90 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 11:52 am

#81 SimplyPut7 on 12.05.19 at 9:38 am
_____

Yeah, total wild card. IMHO, new rules/regs/bans whatever the government says it’s going to do is just lip service until they actually show that they will enforce same. In my experience, enforcement on EVERYTHING and ANYTHING in Ontario is at an all time low. It’s the wild west out there.

I don’t think we’re going to see many condo owners running in fear to list their Airbnb’d sky boxes until they see their amateur landlord buddies are getting tossed in jail and fined out the wazoo for running illegal STR’s.

On top of that, the GTA is jam packed with illegal basement cash apartments – and they’ve been getting away with that for decades. 100% everyone keeps doing what they’re doing until the gov puts boots on the ground.

Will the gov grow some teeth? My guess is no they won’t, so we can forget about lower rents and STR’s located in residential buildings going away.

#91 SimplyPut7 on 12.05.19 at 11:59 am

#84 Cottingham a bargain on 12.05.19 at 10:28 am

Prices will decline because many homes (especially in new condo buildings) are owned by investors who are losing money being landlords and only keeping the property because prices have continued to go up in the condo market.

But now that everyone wants to be a landlord because rent in the GTA is high, and the first glut of condos being built is almost ready for people to take ownership. The supply of homes available for rent or purchase will be increasing just as year-over-year rent increases have started to fall.

On top of that, we have thousands of cash-poor homeowners who will find out they can’t eat their house in retirement. Reverse mortgages are not the best instrument to get cash out of your home, selling is since people can easily live another 20-30 after retiring. Who are these people going to sell their homes to? Broke millennials or renters who like the freedom of moving wherever they want and being debt-free?

https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-millennials-dont-want-baby-boomers-empty-houses-2019-11

#92 Phylis on 12.05.19 at 12:24 pm

Crowded, Time to drop a line to the Fire Inspector…..
Then the elevator inspector….
Then the boiler inspector……
Then the building inspector

…Meant post phone numbers for these outfits for your interested neighbours…

#93 Phylis on 12.05.19 at 12:27 pm

(Ya the help i previously referred to was sarcastic and did carry well)

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 12:32 pm

@#Phylis.
Ahhhhh.
Gotcha.
My brain isnt functioning until I have at least 2 coffee.

#95 Maggie the Teck Writer on 12.05.19 at 12:34 pm

#39
“hey you ungodly Toron-tonyians, you may want to take notice, you tend to be a year behind our trends.” (sic)

Afraid not. Vancouver is three hours behind and always will be.

#96 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 12:42 pm

#52 Chaddywack on 12.04.19 at 8:59 pm
I now rent a house in a swanky area of Vancouver that is owned by a Chinese national. I could never afford to own this house, but i’m benefitting precisely because of the empty homes tax…….seems like it’s working ok otherwise this house would still be sitting empty and I’d be living in my old dump in east van with the doobie brothers living next door.
___

Heh, I just noticed recently a local home that has been on the MLS for over 2 years at 1.8 Mil now has gone up for lease. Very nice place, but other very nice places (and newer ones too) are about 1 mil, so 2 years and no deals yet – never will be either at that price.

It’s definitely a flip attempt – no one is living there. Whoever bought that place is learning a hard lesson about how this kind of stuff doesn’t work out here in the boonies quite like it does in Toronto.

Anyway, an 1.8 Mil mortgage is an $8,500.00 monthly. Taxes are about 12K/yr on this place too.

Lease price?

$4500.00/mo. LOL!

#97 n1tro on 12.05.19 at 12:43 pm

1 drop in a sea of tears(?)…

9 Helena Crt Brampton. Fully done up inside with 4bdr, 4 baths. Aluminum sliding outside, no garage. 1500-2000sq ft.

Bought for $555K in summer
Listed for $550K last week

at least 12 offers. Sold for $629K. Take out the commission and double land transfer tax leaves seller with about ~$25K “profit”? That’s assuming nothing was upgraded in the house from the summer to now.

#98 Ubul on 12.05.19 at 1:03 pm

#80 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 9:27 am

‘banned short-term rentals in any dwelling not owner-occupied’

Not an unreasonable solution IMO

World-class cars, world-class women, world-class lifestyle is not for everyone. You can’t afford Sandals, you go to Cuba. If you can’t afford Cuba, you go to Niagara Falls or to the local public swimming pool. The Charter doesn’t say yet that everyone should be provided by the means to live in Canada’s world-class city on the back of taxpayers or affluent people who make Toronto world-class city at the first place. Find the appropriate spot you can afford on your own, the steerage section of Canada is big enough to accommodate the demand.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.19 at 1:04 pm

well well well.
A new law just in time for our Reno-victions……..

https://www.burnabynow.com/news/burnaby-adopts-best-in-canada-tenant-assistance-policy-1.24026575

Getting more interesting …..

#100 Rargary on 12.05.19 at 1:11 pm

#97 Sold for $629K. Take out the commission and double land transfer tax leaves seller with about ~$25K “profit”? That’s assuming nothing was upgraded in the house from the summer to now……………..owned less than a year with quite a profit? Wouldn’t that raise a red flag with CRA? Pay cap gains perhaps? Surpreeeese!!

Worse, the gain could be taxed as income. – Garth

#101 JB on 12.05.19 at 1:29 pm

#88 Stan Brooks on 12.05.19 at 11:24 am

Some more milking of the sheeple:

Condo Insurance Premiums Are Spiking In Canada, Threatening Resale Prices

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/condo-insurance-canada-145100939.html

Should we have a state insurer to ‘insure’ the leaky crappy 1 million bucks condos?

Note: this is not even related to the carbon tax increases coming. Climate change folks. 6th cold winter in a row, heater turned on (in June! this ‘summer’) in Toronto.

Cheers,
………………………………………………………….
Yes siree my wifes cousin just renewed his condo insurance in September and I couldn’t believe the deductible for a condo . It was $7000. I couldn’t believe how expensive Condo insurance is and when I read your link it was an eye opener. The worst part is that his condo is pretty dam well a rental unit in the Bloor West Village area but he owns it? He says that it is 67% rental from investors. His neighbours have changed like a revolving door lately and the place is getting run down. Its only two years old WTF. He actually thinks he could loose money on his condo investment. His problem is he works downtown and moving closer to work means the prices are ridiculously high even if he liquidated and rented. He is not happy but staying put for the mean time.

#102 Jesse on 12.05.19 at 1:52 pm

Anyone else having issues posting?

#103 Brett in Calgary on 12.05.19 at 2:27 pm

Agreed.
============
#71 GRG on 12.05.19 at 2:01 am
The next Canadian recession, when it finally arrives, is shaping up to be a doozy. Albertans will be well prepared, since they are already in it.

#104 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 2:32 pm

@#98 Ubul on 12.05.19 at 1:03 pm
#80 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 9:27 am

‘banned short-term rentals in any dwelling not owner-occupied’

Not an unreasonable solution IMO

World-class cars, world-class women, world-class lifestyle is not for everyone. You can’t afford Sandals, you go to Cuba. If you can’t afford Cuba, you go to Niagara Falls or to the local public swimming pool. The Charter doesn’t say yet that everyone should be provided by the means to live in Canada’s world-class city on the back of taxpayers or affluent people who make Toronto world-class city at the first place. Find the appropriate spot you can afford on your own, the steerage section of Canada is big enough to accommodate the demand.
_____________________________________

not sure where you’re going with this

#105 SimplyPut7 on 12.05.19 at 3:16 pm

#90 IHCTD9 on 12.05.19 at 11:52 am

The government will enforce its laws when something breaks like the CRA crackdown on flippers avoiding taxes or B20 guidelines as a result of Home Capital nearly collapsing.

Being closer to the centre of the housing craziness I get to hear a lot of stories from speculators, landlords and tenants. Things that made the US crash in 2008 people in Toronto seem happy to do without a second thought.

Something is going to break, I think it will be the investors taking ownership of the investment condos, the people who bought early on (2010-2014) were real investors who cared about the owning property for the long haul. The ones who bought near the end (2015-2018) were flippers and wannabe landlords who didn’t know the government would change the mortgage rules (B20) and it would drastically change what they could qualify for in terms of second mortgage (e.g. financing the investment property).

While the B lenders, credit unions and shadow banks do have money to give, they do no have as much as the big banks who are increasingly turning risky buyers away. The rates at B lenders are still competitive (e.g. MCAP), I wonder what those rates would be like at the end of the 5-year term when they know borrowers can’t leave them because they never qualified for a mortgage at an A lender for their investment properties.

#106 West Island mtl on 12.05.19 at 3:24 pm

Anecdotal experience disclaimer

House down my street was listed this summer. West island of Montreal.

After an eternity’s worth of waiting they finally closed, I wanted to see how hot my ‘hood was getting, so I checked the notary docs online.

New neighbours are straight outa China, married there in 2017. No mortgage, they paid cash 20% over asking.

I gave him the nod, he gave me the nod. Wonder if he speaks french

#107 Ubul on 12.05.19 at 3:41 pm

#104 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 2:32 pm

@#98 Ubul on 12.05.19 at 1:03 pm
#80 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 9:27 am

‘banned short-term rentals in any dwelling not owner-occupied’

Not an unreasonable solution IMO

World-class cars, world-class women, world-class lifestyle is not for everyone. You can’t afford Sandals, you go to Cuba. If you can’t afford Cuba, you go to Niagara Falls or to the local public swimming pool. The Charter doesn’t say yet that everyone should be provided by the means to live in Canada’s world-class city on the back of taxpayers or affluent people who make Toronto world-class city at the first place. Find the appropriate spot you can afford on your own, the steerage section of Canada is big enough to accommodate the demand.
_____________________________________

not sure where you’re going with this

People should live where they can afford to live.
Don’t rely on others to subsidize out-of-reach choices with extra taxes, regulations.

#108 Jesse on 12.05.19 at 3:56 pm

Garth – I’m having issues posting, not sure if I’ve been banned or why (I never posted any hate or swears or anything). I am trying to post from an alternate email. If I have have been banned please just reply with a YES or NO.

Thanks.

Maybe. – Garth

#109 Remembrancer on 12.05.19 at 4:13 pm

#104 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 2:32 pm
@#98 Ubul on 12.05.19 at 1:03 pm
#80 oh bouy on 12.05.19 at 9:27 am

not sure where you’re going with this
————————————
I think its a suggestion that there is no enshrined right to live where you want if you can’t afford to…

Step 1.
Develop the skills to find a honest, lawful means of employment where you can afford to live (that doesn’t necessarily mean a SFH on the same block as your parents or a 2500 sqft loft at the coolest intersection in town…

Step 2.
Profit!!!