Six words

Trump snorted and stocks got the shakes this week. Fresh from hitting record highs, equity markets shed hundreds of points. The issue? China. After  hinting a trade deal was at hand, Tariff Man reappeared saying he was in no hurry to sign anything. In fact a new set of levies may be imposed on the 15th. It’s a risk-off moment. Down she goes.

There are three points in today’s blog post. (A short quiz may be taken later.)

First, this has been a boffo year. Anybody cowering in cash and afraid to invest has robbed themselves or their clients. American equity markets have given a total return of more than 20%. Even Bay Street has been a star, despite energy woes and a silly federal election. Balanced, diversified portfolios are ahead double-digits, and the four-year advance has been more than 25% – despite the plop in 2018, Trump, trade wars, volatility, Brexit, inverted yield curves and the girls on Tiktok. It sure pays to stay invested.

Second, Trump could well trash the Santa rally. New tariffs in 12 days’ time, coming after the pro-Hong Kong, anti-Beijing message from Washington are enough to heat the trade war to a new boil. Obviously the wily but weird president wants to save the big détente for closer to the 2020 election campaign, so he can blow up the Dems. But it’ll come. That probably makes what’s ahead over the next month or two a buying opportunity, if you have cash. And guts.

Third, the storm is over. There’s no recession on the horizon for the US. No reason to hunker in cash or a GIC. The yield curve is the banana it should be. Central banks have been (like me) serious but  stimulating. Corporate profits solidly beat expectations. Unemployment in the States is at a 50-year low. Consumer confidence and spending are strong. Global growth is steady. And there’s big momentum.

“We find that the signs of a global cyclical recovery are firmly in place,” says Van-based equity analyst Cam Hui. “Both U.S. and non-U.S. equity indices have flashed long-term buy signals that have proven to be remarkably effective in the past.”

So, it’s a ‘buy’ signal, he says.

Global recovery firmly in place: ‘Buy’

Source: Pennock IdeaHub. Click to enlarge.

If you believe this, stay invested. Even if December, 2019 turns out to be a pale imitation of the final weeks of last year, when Trump again did his grinch thing. Everybody with liquid assets should expect markets to gyrate, vibrate and occasionally capitulate. It’s normal. Traditionally there’s a 5% plop a couple of times a year (a “pullback”). Meaningless. Once every three years or so there’s a market decline of between 10% and 20% (a “correction’). They’re short and shallow, normally regaining all lost ground in about four months. Most of the time a correction doesn’t signal bigger losses coming. Occasionally it does. A drop of more than 20% (a ‘bear market”) is painful – we had one at this time last year – but equities have always recovered. So the only people who are truly whacked are those who panic and bail.

Humans are consistent in their emotions. We fret over losses more than we relish gains. Fear has always trumped greed, but those two emotions are the primary drivers of all markets – from stocks to houses. Meanwhile logic and experience show us that investing, staying invested and investing more when everybody is freaking out, is an excellent strategy.

If all you did were to find a hundred bucks a week starting from zero, and stick it into your TFSA in assets pacing the major stock markets (through an ETF) for your working life (35 years), you’d end up with $784,000. That would provide a tax-free income of $47,000 forever without diminishing the principal. Add in OAS and CPP and that becomes an income of about $65,000, and no tax. Add a spouse doing the same thing and you have household income of almost $130,000. And a tax rate of about 9%.

To clarify: that’s without putting money in RRSPs. Never having a non-registered investment account. No corporate pension. No inheritance. No lottery winnings. No GoFundMe page. Not even any crime involved. Just one simple action.

So here’s another chart. The market advances are in green. The contractions in red. Over the last half-century you can see what happened. Those who let fear win, lose. Six words to remember.

Big bulls, little bears. The 50-year story.

Click to enlarge.

 

113 comments ↓

#1 bdwy on 12.03.19 at 3:20 pm

Home sales roughly back in line with 10-year average, says Greater Vancouver real estate board

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-november-home-sales-1.5382685

#2 Heregoesnothing on 12.03.19 at 3:33 pm

Thank you for talking the more jittery amongst us off the ledge once again, Garth!

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 12.03.19 at 3:50 pm

I’m financially ruined…

#4 n1tro on 12.03.19 at 3:50 pm

VOO for the win!

#5 GBiddy on 12.03.19 at 4:01 pm

Fantastic post, Garth, as (mostly) always.

#6 unbalanced on 12.03.19 at 4:02 pm

Trump knows how to play the market! He knows exactly what to say and the markets react. Him and his buddies are making millions. Go ahead, Prove me wrong

#7 Dogman01 on 12.03.19 at 4:06 pm

Jason Kenny = Charlatan and Carpetbagger

I was hoping for some rationality…..but it’s even worse than the last 40 years of CONS in Alberta.

40 Years – The inability of these guys to grow the Heritage Fund, reign in government spending, diversify the economy.

40 years to turn Alberta into a conservative show room…..

Even Harper did not get the infrastructure built.

No plan, no vision, no common sense, ideological and seeming no interest in positive outcomes for society.

Not my idea of Conservative values.

“So, let’s remember. There are those among us who, in serving themselves, serve no one.” – Garth Turner

I could never trust Jason with a Provincial Police Force or my Pensions.

#8 Bigrider on 12.03.19 at 4:10 pm

Using fund company marketing material but not their products..tsk tsk on you.

I guess you browse at the Bay and buy on ebay too..lol

The company provides about 50 ETFs, and does good charts, one of which is now being exposed to a big mess of people. – Garth

#9 IHCTD9 on 12.03.19 at 4:14 pm

It has indeed been a a great year thus far after the late 2018 crap out.

We put the nest egg under new management in the spring (right when the market had recovered from the dump late in 2018), and yet the climb has been steady from there.

We buy more every week or every two weeks (can’t remember which) all year, every year, every decade – no matter what happened/s. It’s never let us down for long, so Mr. T’s advice here is spot on. I actually feel a little bit excited about our investments lately, which I don’t think has ever happened before.

Garth’s advice is ideal for the kids just getting started. Time is so huge. TFSA’s available right from the start. Set it and forget it for about 2 decades, then get a fee based Pro like TI to handle things.

We built our portfolio using tons of RRSP’s and [email protected] charging us out the wazoo with high MER’s – plus (IMHO) we started Late! So, we have done nowhere near as well as a young person would who just takes the simple advice G gives above.

#10 Kurt on 12.03.19 at 4:24 pm

Your graphic seems to say “Never sell into a bear market – ever. If you can buy into one, great, but don’t wait for one to buy. Wait for a bull market to sell, and you won’t wait long (no more than 2 years.) If you are thinking of selling to avoid a bear market, you shouldn’t be in equities.”

I know that’s simplistic, but I have a simple mind.

This is simpler: invest when you have the money and stay invested. That’s what I said. – Garth

#11 conan on 12.03.19 at 4:52 pm

I wonder if Trump’s impeachment trial will ever touch on the obvious?

He is tweeting with puts and calls in play. If I was POTUS, and did this, I would make an earth shattering amount of money.

#12 AACI Homedog on 12.03.19 at 5:14 pm

Thanks Garth. Awesome post. Trying to get my BIL’s to read & heed these things, I am. They can be stubborn !

#13 TurnerNation on 12.03.19 at 5:16 pm

At this weblog’s insistent behest I checked out Tic Toc.
Appears a newer, longer version of the now defunct Vine service:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vine_(service)
Vine was a short-form video hosting service where users shared six-second-long, looping video clips
The Vine app could be used to browse videos, along with groups of videos by theme, and “trending” videos.

– Boomers are cute sometimes with technology, Okay? ;-)

#14 Stone on 12.03.19 at 5:17 pm

If all you did were to find a hundred bucks a week starting from zero, and stick it into your TFSA in assets pacing the major stock markets (through an ETF) for your working life (35 years), you’d end up with $784,000. That would provide a tax-free income of $47,000 forever without diminishing the principal. Add in OAS and CPP and that becomes an income of about $65,000, and no tax.

———

The intent here (save and invest your money) is a good one but there is one issue with this example that must be highlighted and that is inflation.

When you consider a 2% inflation rate over that same 35 year period, the $784,000 in today’s dollars comes to about $362,000. The $47,000 tax free income in today’s dollars amounts to about $23,400 (tell me how far you can go with that). Even with CPP and OAS added in of $18,000 per the example above, that increases your income in today’s dollars to about $32,000 (still measly – remember, there’s a lot of competition among seniors for people greeter positions at Walmart or working at Home Depot). For a couple, that amounts to about $64,000. Yes, $64,000 is passable (pray you don’t get divorced though or at least hide a stash of cat food and thirsty underwear in a bunker somewhere before the divorce happens).

On that note people, try to save and invest more than a $100 a week for your own sake. To do otherwise is, well, stupid and places you as an individual in a precarious position.

Not looking to be negative, just realistic.

Realistically, investment returns rise as inflation does. No excuse not to invest. – Garth

#15 Deplorable Dude on 12.03.19 at 5:24 pm

#6 Unbalanced…”Him and his buddies are making millions. Go ahead, Prove me wrong”

You’re talking bollocks.

Trump’s net worth is about the same as it was in 2016. That’s after recovering from a Billion$ loss the last couple of years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-12/trump-s-net-worth-rises-to-3-billion-despite-business-setbacks

#16 SunShowers on 12.03.19 at 5:33 pm

“If all you did were to find a hundred bucks a week”

We’re talking about people who don’t even have $200 to their name at the end of the month after all the bills are paid.

#17 Bruce Allen on 12.03.19 at 5:39 pm

Haha. Gosh, I love how we wrap ourselves up in all this ‘feel goodism’ these days.

Stop the massive Fed accommodation if you wanna see how quickly this party ends. It’s just more (cheap) debt that can and will never be paid back. This is an outright form of fraud, but nobody cares of course. Business as usual. Nothing to see here, folks. Keep the money moving around, that’s what it’s all about. Ever play Monopoly?

On Nov. 13, the Fed went from non-QE QE to QT. Go check out their balance sheet for yourselves if you wanna real laugh.

I’m in my 70’s now. Don’t plan on sticking around too much longer as the cost of everything becomes so out of reach for most that you need to belong to the 1% to afford anything. Think I’ll pass on long-term care as well, since that alone can cost upwards of $3000/month, so good luck with that.

Glad I gave up on this wicked system of things years ago…….

Rally on….

#18 Dave on 12.03.19 at 5:58 pm

BMO is doing some major lay offs – your fired!

Whats the real reason….maybe real estate loan profits are falling???

#19 On behalf of James Sears on 12.03.19 at 6:10 pm

DELETED

#20 Kurt Edwards on 12.03.19 at 6:37 pm

#10 Kurt on 12.03.19 at 4:24 pm

This is simpler: invest when you have the money and stay invested. That’s what I said. – Garth

That is simpler! However, one day we all die, and some of us won’t have offspring to inherit. I know you’ve written many times about changing our portfolios to match the stage of our life, but I must have missed the part about taking money out. What if we want to do something expensive, stupid and fun? How should we handle that, assuming that we have the good sense to stay invested enough to live comfortably after we’ve done our fun, stupid thing? What I wrote handles that possibility, but it does it clumsily. Can you do better? Much appreciated, and keep rising above the idiocy in the comments!

#21 Xpat on 12.03.19 at 6:39 pm

#6 unbalanced on 12.03.19 at 4:02 pm
Trump knows how to play the market! He knows exactly what to say and the markets react. Him and his buddies are making millions. Go ahead, Prove me wrong
———————————————————

What’s your point exactly? Everyone invested is making money not just Trump. Rich people get richer by investing but so do all of us Joe Schmoes

#22 Cici on 12.03.19 at 6:41 pm

#15 Deplorable Dude

You’re hilarious if you believe in those numbers and that all of his assets are known and accounted for.

I mean seriously, the guy’s tax returns are top secret.

#23 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 6:42 pm

#11 conan on 12.03.19 at 4:52 pm

I wonder if Trump’s impeachment trial will ever touch on the obvious?
He is tweeting with puts and calls in play. If I was POTUS, and did this, I would make an earth shattering amount of money.

————————————

Sorry, what’s obvious here, Conan?

If you were POTUS, you could do illegal things to make money? Well, duh.

#24 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 6:52 pm

#6 unbalanced on 12.03.19 at 4:02 pm

Trump knows how to play the market! He knows exactly what to say and the markets react. Him and his buddies are making millions. Go ahead, Prove me wrong

————————————

You’re the one making the assertion. Prove yourself right first.

#25 Deplorable Dude on 12.03.19 at 6:57 pm

#22 Cici….” I mean seriously, the guy’s tax returns are top secret”

As are everybody’s. So what.

Trump handed off control of his empire when he became President. He donates his annual salary.

To claim he is making coin off his Presidency without a shred of evidence is pure Trump derangement Syndrome.

All public evidence shows the exact opposite.

I’m personally more interested in how all these ‘career’ politicians became multimillionaires on the job??

#26 Yukon Elvis on 12.03.19 at 7:00 pm

#20 Kurt Edwards
I must have missed the part about taking money out. What if we want to do something expensive, stupid and fun?
…………………………

That’s what I do. Wine, women, and song. The rest I just waste.

#27 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 7:04 pm

#16 SunShowers on 12.03.19 at 5:33 pm

“If all you did were to find a hundred bucks a week”

We’re talking about people who don’t even have $200 to their name at the end of the month after all the bills are paid.

———————————————

This is a finance blog. Plenty of blogdogs can find $100/week or even $100/day if needed.

#28 Lost...but not leased on 12.03.19 at 7:13 pm

So…..given we have had a corrupted monetary system in the USA since Federal Reserve circa 1913..the “market” is at whims of those who wish to lure the herd via bogus evaluations..

In other words there is no/nada/zero real value increase in the market per se ……just a rigged game with inflation of fiat currency…whereby we have RE at one phase of cycle…the lesser scam of the stock market as another Yin/Yan compensatory phase…all of which works just fine till it doesn’t .

N/C

#29 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 7:13 pm

#20 Kurt Edwards on 12.03.19 at 6:37 pm

This is simpler: invest when you have the money and stay invested. That’s what I said. – Garth

…I must have missed the part about taking money out. What if we want to do something expensive, stupid and fun? How should we handle that, assuming that we have the good sense to stay invested enough to live comfortably after we’ve done our fun, stupid thing?

Much appreciated, and keep rising above the idiocy in the comments!

————————————–

Don’t beat yourself up, Kurt. Your comments aren’t that bad.

Of course you should spend money on fun if you can; life would be pretty boring otherwise. Start doing this early- it can have the added benefit of strengthening your marriage, which is a key action toward reaching financial freedom.

#30 HoweStreet.com on 12.03.19 at 7:16 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Canadian Mortgage Debt or Canadian Recession?
The Vancouver Property Tax Scam Continues.

https://www.howestreet.com/2019/12/canadian-mortgage-debt-or-canadian-recession/

#31 Gravy Train on 12.03.19 at 7:25 pm

#21 Xpat on 12.03.19 at 6:39 pm
“What’s your point exactly? Everyone invested is making money, not just Trump. Rich people get richer by investing, but so do all of us Joe Schmoes.” You’re so obtuse! It’s obvious, isn’t it? He could sell or short stock one day, and then deliberately tank the market the next day with a tweet. He could buy stock one day, and then juice the market the next day with an offhand remark at a press conference. Easy-peasy lemon squeezy. Now, would he ever do that? I’ll leave that up to you! :)

#32 Long-Time Lurker on 12.03.19 at 7:43 pm

>Like I said: Acres of windmills (diamonds).

Suncor to build $300M wind farm
BY COLLIN GALLANT ON DECEMBER 3, 2019.

One of Canada’s largest oil companies will build a wind farm near Bow Island over the next two years at a cost of $300 million, Suncor announced on Monday as it released its 2020 capital spending guidance to investors.

The Forty Mile Wind Power project, also known as the Forty Mile Granlea wind farm, would be similar in size to the Whitla Wind Farm that was built this year about 60 kilometres southwest of Medicine Hat.

That project, set to be completed this month by Edmonton-based Capital Power, saw more than 300 construction workers on site this summer, while agreements with land owners and tax revenue is counted in the millions of dollars each year….

https://medicinehatnews.com/news/local-news/2019/12/03/suncor-to-build-300m-wind-farm/

#33 Nonplused on 12.03.19 at 7:57 pm

“Humans are consistent in their emotions. We fret over losses more than we relish gains.”

This has been psychologically proven. It’s also why VLT’s take a dollar or 2 at a time but occasionally pay out $100 or more and a light and bell goes on. If you put $20 bucks in and it disappears in one go people would stop playing. So the trick is to take the money slowly and occasionally give a big random reward. But be assured, the machines always win in the long run. There might be the odd person out there who is up on VLT’s, but stories of people losing their houses to the machines are much more common. Don’t gamble except for entertainment. The house always wins.

But more to the topic, in an inflationary environment with economic growth, of course things go up. What our central banks have learned is that deflation is bad, because it leads to debts not being serviced, which causes a deflationary feedback loop. So when the economy is growing they allow a little inflation and when things stall out they allow a lot of inflation. Things will go up in price as they have for nearly 100 years. Stocks included. The purchasing power of those assets probably only goes up by the economic growth, but the prices go up by both.

The last big real-estate crash both destroyed my father and made him a rich man. How could that be? Well, he was doing ok as a house builder until the crash of 1982, where he and his partner lost everything including their own homes. All he had left was an old van and his tools. The bank didn’t want those. So he got a new partner and they went back to swinging hammers and shooting themselves with air-nailers. But then a strange thing happened. The banks ended up with a lot of undeveloped speculative real estate that nobody would touch. They made a small deal and it worked. So they made a slightly larger deal which also worked at first until the land started settling. But by the time they needed to pay for that they had already made a much larger deal that covered the repairs and grew exponentially. Then they made more deals. 30 years of leveraged speculation in an upward market has made him and his partner fairly wealthy. The kind of wealthy that cruises around in a class A motorhome when they have nothing better to do.

It’s hard to call the bottom, and my dad had no choice if he wanted to escape the hourly wage world but to just try again. Easy come easy go I guess. But if you happen to buy the bottom the trade will go much better than if you try and time the top.

#34 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.03.19 at 7:58 pm

Great graph, thanks for posting it, Garth.

#35 Gravy Train on 12.03.19 at 7:59 pm

#24 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 6:52 pm
“You’re the one making the assertion. Prove yourself right first.” We can’t, since Trump refuses to disclose his tax returns. :)

#36 Anton Twinette on 12.03.19 at 8:05 pm

Garth

The net of effect of Canada’s over-valued real estate and immigration policies will be pockets of wealthy landed gentry “aristocrats” surrounded by poverty stricken immigrant barrios . Kind of what exists in Paris. All the immigrants live in the banlieues which have become no go areas. Seems the conditions are like just before the French Revolution. Let the eat cake…errrr let them eat poutine!

#37 chezboigla on 12.03.19 at 8:09 pm

“First, this has been a boffo year. Anybody cowering in cash and afraid to invest has robbed themselves or their clients. American equity markets have given a total return of more than 20%.”

Garth this is the typical stock sales promotion tactic. You always measure the return from the lowest point to bump up the numbers, assuming that investors bought there….and then you say don’t try to time markets! Most investors don’t buy right at the bottom. There is an underlying contradiction here

Calendar year returns are standard. You know it. – Garth

#38 Robert Ash on 12.03.19 at 8:09 pm

No one seems, to mention Micheal Bloomberg, is running in the 2020 Presidential election. Polls, Polls, and who knows about Polls, but the Polls, Like Pew Research, are suggesting that 55% of Polled respondents, would vote against, DT, and that is quite a large spread relative to any past Elections stats… I believe Micheal B, is very well placed to offer a viable, proven, and electable alternative to DT. They incidentally have often crossed paths, and long time New Yorkers… If the Democrats are elected, what might change… Well a lot it possibly , if you consider the recent past governance.

#39 not so liquid in calgary on 12.03.19 at 8:22 pm

@ Dogman01 on 12.03.19 at 4:06 pm

=========================================

Well, what’s holding you here?

Please leave.

#40 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 8:23 pm

#35 Gravy Train on 12.03.19 at 7:59 pm
#24 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 6:52 pm

“You’re the one making the assertion. Prove yourself right first.”

——————————————
We can’t, since Trump refuses to disclose his tax returns. :)
——————————————

Yes, you can’t. Another unproven accusation. Why would anyone try to rebut hot air?

#41 Doug in London on 12.03.19 at 8:24 pm

If Trump really does trash the Santa rally, then let’s hope it’s a repeat performance of this time last year when Black Friday and Boxing Day joined forces and brought us some AMAZING deals in the stock market. My belief in a generous Santa Claus has been fading recently, but such a turn of events could re-establish my belief in Jolly Old St. Nick.

As for this short term bouncing around in the markets, it reminds me of something I saw in Timmins many years ago. At The MacIntyre Mine in Schumacher, rock that was brought to the surface needed to be crushed before going into the smelting process. This task was done by a giant rock crusher. I remember seeing the ammeter for the load on this machine and how it would bounce around all over the place when in use. The fluctuations in the stock market are like that ammeter, randomly bouncing around and with no obvious pattern or trend. Pay no attention unless, as I said above, Black Friday comes late or Boxing Day comes early.

#42 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 8:26 pm

#38 Robert Ash on 12.03.19 at 8:09 pm

…the Polls, Like Pew Research, are suggesting that 55% of Polled respondents, would vote against, DT, and that is quite a large spread relative to any past Elections stats… I believe Micheal B, is very well placed to offer a viable, proven, and electable alternative to DT.
———————————-

Are these the same polls that had Hillary winning by a landslide in the last election? Colour me a skeptic.

#43 Shawn Allen on 12.03.19 at 8:36 pm

Bank Layoffs – No Surprise.

#18 Dave on 12.03.19 at 5:58 pm
BMO is doing some major lay offs – your fired!

Whats the real reason….maybe real estate loan profits are falling???

********************************
Well, paper cash and going to the bank to get same is becoming obsolete.

It is sad to see people lose their jobs. But the reasons are no mystery.

How many times a month (or year) do most of us use a bank machine let alone enter a bank branch?

The number of bank machines at the big 5 has been slowly declining for several years. More Branch closings will be along soon.

Remember, Garth owns a former BMO branch.

The key asset of a bank these days is a sophisticated computer system. What percentage of banking is electronic transfers?

#44 Gregor Samsa on 12.03.19 at 8:41 pm

Just a comment on Calgary, as I missed the blog yesterday. Here in Calgary, things are about as bad as ever during this downturn. Lots of local businesses are closing – restaurants, retail, even coffee shops like Starbucks and Second Cup closing (when you can’t make a go selling 10 cent coffees for $5, you know things are bad). The slow trickle of private sector layoffs continues (mostly done without media announcements). A guy just sold out his long running and successful local natural grocery chain. I see signs everywhere that the “smart money” is cashing out and getting out to greener pastures.

Few people are really talking about what the real issue is. Yes, the primary issue is that oil is in the tank, but the secondary issue that nobody touches is that Alberta overextended its public sector spending bigtime, at all levels. During the boom times, it grew a huge, inefficient, and well compensated government and health care sectors. These still are the largest, per capita, in Canada, and I believe also the best paid in Canada. It was easy to justify when baristas in Ft. Mac were pulling in 6 figures… but those days are over. Then you have the city of Calgary, were the standard work week of employees is 35 hours and the compensation is high.

And the really killer is that deflation, which should occur naturally in a downturn, is not being allowed to happen at its natural pace, so everyone is getting hit with rising taxes AND rising costs as governments sniff around for more and more money. House prices may be down a bit, but they SHOULD be down much, much more.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.19 at 8:46 pm

@#32 Lurker
“One of Canada’s largest oil companies will build a wind farm near Bow Island over the next two years at a cost of $300 million, ”
****

Is that anywhere near the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton?
Where all the hot air from politicians sucking and blowing simultaneously could power all the windmills for the next 300 years?

#46 Capt. Serious on 12.03.19 at 9:07 pm

Nobody knows what is going to happen over the next decade, but I’ll wager equity returns will be lower than the 2010s. 2010s were an outstanding decade. No reason to divest, but only those with the right temperament will see it through. Rational expectations are important.

#47 Bigrider on 12.03.19 at 9:16 pm

#8 Bigrider on 12.03.19 at 4:10 pm

Using fund company marketing material but not their products..tsk tsk on you.

I guess you browse at the Bay and buy on ebay too..lol

The company provides about 50 ETFs, and does good charts, one of which is now being exposed to a big mess of people. – Garth
———————–

True enough about Invesco’s ETF suite. As good as any.

However…

Invesco chart belies ,most probably without malice and obfuscates ,also without intention most likely, what might be the true nature of bull and bear markets, in what might be a new macro paradigm.

Post year 2000 – Plus 96.21% followed by minus 51.93 followed by plus24.22 followed by minus 27.62 and add plus 324.65 equals a sub-par return when compared to previous 43 years (post 57′ as chart shows).

Lots of risk for a net gross return of 275%(approx.). Might have come close to same with much less or zero risk, long duration interest bearing investments over the time period post 2000. Not to mention speed and severity of bear verse bull(broken elevator freefall on the way down , stairs with bricks on your back up)

Expect bear markets to be sharper, faster and occurring

#48 Bigrider on 12.03.19 at 9:18 pm

(continued)

more often with deeper declines.

#49 Neo on 12.03.19 at 9:19 pm

Apparently Mt. Rainier is threatening to blow. Sure would be a shame if Vancouver ended up with a 2 meter dusting of volcanic ash. Just might send housing costs back in line with family incomes.

#50 Rargary on 12.03.19 at 9:27 pm

#44 Gregor Samsa…House prices may be down a bit, but they SHOULD be down much, much more……………………..
SHHH We are still ahead of Ottawa and Montreal house prices…not bad for a city in despair. Once we do rise, we can sit back and enjoy!

#51 JSS on 12.03.19 at 9:34 pm

Moody’s Investors Service downgrades Alberta credit rating, cites weak economy

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/moodys-investors-service-downgrades-alberta-credit-rating-cites-weak-economy/amp

#52 Seeing a LOT of ... on 12.03.19 at 9:37 pm

#33 Nonplused on 12.03.19 at 7:57 pm
So he got a new partner and they went back to swinging hammers and shooting themselves with air-nailers.

Quality air nailers for sale on Craigslist out here on the west coast right now. Somebody has no use for them anymore.

#53 DON on 12.03.19 at 9:40 pm

IMHO – Trump’s strategy and personality allow him to shoot from the hip, shift strategies, play the short – medium and long game all to his benefit. He has 10 months to make a short term impression just enough to get re-elected.

He is master when it comes to his lies and managing his lies all the while deflecting, projecting and rallying the base. He is good at capturing a crowd cause he is different. Trump has been riding the whole trade deal being seen as ‘fighting the good fight’ and ‘bringing jobs home’.

I have been watching the international news and since the trade war began China has been somewhat diversifying away from the US. Most recently, Trump has announced possible tariffs on Venezuela and Brazil for steel(?). China just happens to be buying more soybeans from these countries and less from the US.

Trump just passed that human rights bill, right as the interim deal was being negotiated, knowing China would recoil. I don’t think the interim deal was all that good. By not settling now, Trump can continue to nurture the cause until the election and released at a convenient time to seal the deal (election, not trade war). Imagine the ego if/when he gets reelected, that is unless the democrats can get there act together and get an actor to run for them…I,m thinking Harrison Ford, George Clooney, the Rock or a JFK family member.

The next 11 months will be interesting in the US.

#54 Bob on 12.03.19 at 9:41 pm

There is an exodus from Alberta to Texas going on. I absolutely recommend abandoning Canada for USA. Trump admin might seem crazy but unlike the clowns in Ottawa at least the represent the people living in their own country.

https://apple.news/A2F7jMu8vTret-Vmlb5PFCQ

#55 IHCTD9 on 12.03.19 at 9:52 pm

#14 Stone on 12.03.19 at 5:17 pm

The intent here (save and invest your money) is a good one but there is one issue with this example that must be highlighted and that is inflation.
——-

I keep tying to nail down exactly where it is that I am getting nailed by inflation, and coming up empty.

IMHO, globalized manufacturing has taken a lot of the sting out of inflation. Consumer goods have never been so cheap compared to incomes. I sometimes laugh looking at flyers where I can buy a 300 pc ratchet set for under 100.00 “80% off” lol! They probably buy ‘em from China for 15.00. I paid near 100.00 for a smaller set in the 80’s.

Another thing to keep in mind are government handouts. These have really accelerated under Trudeau. Not everyone gets to roll in a mountain of Trudeau bucks, but for those that do, even temporarily; they can justifiably call it an anti-inflation subsidy. I know folks getting over 30k between their tax return and CCB. This cash goes into the chequing account and gets spent on regular daily items. 30k per year for free goes a loong way in handling whatever few things which actually cost more these days.

Then there are modern tools that allow you to sell and buy almost anything with ease. Sites like KIJIJI and EBay can really knock down your cost of living if you want. You can profit tax free selling whatever junk you have laying around, and buy damn near anything for peanuts. The modern consumer has many options to keep costs in line that never existed only 20 years ago. Many put it to use.

Finally, there are the FNR’s. These will keep getting more significant, and an ever larger thorn in the CRA’s side. Most folks think FNR’s are just selling gas, smokes, and now pot – but they have progressed to include auto parts, tires, building materials, and various services. To me, they have reached a point where a nearby gringo can save some major dollars on some pretty big ticket items. For whatever it is they have chosen to do out there, they are unbeatable on price – and tax free too of course.

My costs related to government are the only things going up it seems.

#56 IHCTD9 on 12.03.19 at 10:13 pm

#43 Shawn Allen on 12.03.19 at 8:36 pm
Bank Layoffs – No Surprise.

#18 Dave on 12.03.19 at 5:58 pm
BMO is doing some major lay offs – your fired!

Whats the real reason….maybe real estate loan profits are falling???

********************************
Well, paper cash and going to the bank to get same is becoming obsolete.

It is sad to see people lose their jobs. But the reasons are no mystery.

How many times a month (or year) do most of us use a bank machine let alone enter a bank branch?

The number of bank machines at the big 5 has been slowly declining for several years. More Branch closings will be along soon.

Remember, Garth owns a former BMO branch.

The key asset of a bank these days is a sophisticated computer system. What percentage of banking is electronic transfers?
——-

Yep. Small and very small towns are seeing banks closing entirely. Lots of good used BMO’s hitting the MLS. I go to my local branch very rarely as my truck gets 10mpg, much cheaper to do cash back wherever you’re at while running errands.

So many options these days for obtaining and moving cash, as well as paying for goods and regular bills.

#57 DON on 12.03.19 at 10:16 pm

#119 Gravy Train on 12.03.19 at 8:19 am

#104 DON on 12.03.19 at 12:12 am
“[…] Maybe I still have to rely on gasoline for my automobile (next car electric) for now, but I certainly can cut down on some if not all that other junk.[…]” Did you just say you’re trying to become an environmentalist? Don’t worry: I won’t tell any of the other ‘deplorables’ here in the steerage section. It’s our little secret. Oh, and did you hear that Trump’s now selling specialty plastic straws? He’s such a card! :)
********************

I wouldn’t call myself an environmentalist, I agree with making a living but doing it in a responsible manner.

I don’t agree with polluting my back yard.

I tend to enjoy pristine environments, fresh air and clean water.

It enrages me when we ‘human beings’ affect other creatures in a detrimental manner. You wouldn’t treat your dog that way…would you? That whale should not have had a 100kg or plastic in its belly, full stop! No secrets need to be kept, maybe I need a new sense of humour.

#58 april on 12.03.19 at 10:17 pm

#1 bdwy – why do you believe those people. Sales have not increased by 55%. The Van housing market is not “red hot” is still in decline. That was all those new builds sold in 2016/17/18 and only recently closed.

Hard to know why this industry gets away with such misinformation for yrs now.

#59 Dogman01 on 12.03.19 at 10:33 pm

#44 Gregor Samsa on 12.03.19 at 8:41 pm

Few people are really talking about what the real issue is. Yes, the primary issue is that oil is in the tank, but the secondary issue that nobody touches is that Alberta overextended its public sector spending bigtime, at all levels. During the boom times, it grew a huge, inefficient, and well compensated government and health care sectors. These still are the largest, per capita, in Canada, and I believe also the best paid in Canada.

—————————————————-

Alberta’s brand of Conservatives; All this occurred under their watch:

– They blew multiple O&G booms (how many “do-overs’ does anyone need to get it right?)
– They could not grow the Heritage Trust fund (so we would have invested after O&G – Like Norway)
– They grew and grew the most inefficient Public Sector in Canada
– They oversaw the creation of a massive orphan oil well liability

40+ years to “Mission Accomplished and what we still have is a largely a one trick pony based on the easy money of O&G.

They have certainly not been fiscal conservatives and often trend to being simply small minded social conservatives.

While we may justifiable criticize the pipeline obstructionists in Ottawa, before Alberta plays the victim, we should look at our 40+ years of complete lack of economic foresight and the small minded ideology behind that.

We had so much potential and so many chances. Conservatives should be looking the mirror and asking why before blaming Ottawa and playing the victim game.

#60 DON on 12.03.19 at 10:34 pm

@#44 Gregor Samsa on 12.03.19 at 8:41 pm

In small-town BC things aren’t so pretty either. Western Forest Products and the Loggers are into a 6 month strike. This is the result of years of continued bad planning and diversification but it is hitting now. The local tow company in Port McNeil (used to towing forestry breakdowns) recently refused to become a repo service that is in demand.

The whole of BC is being affected by Mill closures and curtailments. The former gov set the stumpage fees and they are tied to the US/Canada Softwood deal. Lowering the stumpage fees would be a violation and since we sell to the US (SOL).

We should have diversified and limited raw log exports a long time ago. Now mills are complaining that they get access high quality fibre. Meanwhile the log cargo ships and log booms travel out of sight off the West Coast of Vancouver Island to Oregon, China etc.

Alberta should start it’s own gas company, I’ll buy it. BC might want to start up a mill or two.

#61 Jenny Wang on 12.03.19 at 10:52 pm

How badly has Trudeau screwed Canada out of a future if billions in tax revenue from what should have been a no brainier, except Canada’s PM bungled our future, we’ll never get it back. And now Russia has done a permanent end run around the Trudeau/Butts/Soros team. Don’t look for any new hospitals or schools, we can’t afford those anymore.

Russia has completed s oil-gas mega pipe to Europe and China, in the time ittook Trudeau to put his makeup on.

#62 the Jaguar on 12.03.19 at 11:14 pm

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.19 at 8:46 pm

You are a minimalist poster today. I feel somewhat contrite in my comments of yesterday. We get mad at each other sometimes………. The ‘Blog’ reflects our everday reality. I know blog dogs value your comments, and if I have offended I apologize.
I really miss Dolce Vita as well. He provided so many interesting and informative comments about living in Italy. Come back to us Dolce Vita. You can get pissed off but it doesn’t mean you have to stay away forever………….

#63 unbalanced on 12.03.19 at 11:25 pm

Thank you Gravy Train for explaining something so easy, that some people are so blind to see. Thats how my 35 yr old friend became a millionaire. Its called inside trading. I wont say anymore about this. I just wish some people would sail away

#64 Fortune500 on 12.03.19 at 11:42 pm

Garth, where did the $47,000 estimate come from? According to the Trinity study, we can expect the 4% rule to work over 25-30 years (this person could potentially live longer), but following a 6% rule (as you have) would lead to failure in short order. Almost half of the simulations I run would end in disaster over a 30 year period.

What am I missing?

#65 Dr V on 12.04.19 at 12:04 am

14 Stone – remember inflation can work on the contribution end as well. Each year you should
increase it by that 2% – possibly more. If $100 a week is 10% of income, you could also just stick with that
percentage.

#66 Nonplused on 12.04.19 at 12:05 am

Canada explained:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIH-J3uLN3E

#67 Stoph on 12.04.19 at 12:15 am

I agree with the chart’s message that all-in-all markets go up over time, that markets go up more often than not, and that markets usually recover soon enough after a downturn. However, the chart poorly represents returns upon initial impression as the shaded area does not correspond to returns.

In looking at the 70’s, the loss of almost 50% over two years doesn’t have anywhere close to the same area as the that +100% gain that’s needed to recover from this loss, which took about 7 years.

A bar graph of yearly returns using a log scale would a give a more accurate impression of returns.

#68 Blackdog on 12.04.19 at 1:22 am

I really liked this post. I’ve been slowly learning how to invest. Been putting it off for years, all the while knowing in the back of my mind that I needed to do it. Just couldn’t seem to get started. Finally forced myself a couple years ago.

I didn’t initially get the concept of investing everything at once; started slowly investing portions of what is a significant total amount. Still waiting for the last portion to become accessible this summer. Yes, it is in brain-dead GIC’s(for shame), but at 3.25% for 18 months, so not too awful.

I’m now in the process of adjusting my portfolio (balancing and getting defensive) as I realize I am overweight certain asset classes, and am moving some equities to low-volatility etfs.

Things are making more sense. I wished I had started years earlier. Oh well, all is not lost. Can’t change the past.

What I once thought would be mundane and boring is actually start to becoming interesting. Thanks Garth.

#69 Blackdog on 12.04.19 at 1:28 am

…starting, not start. An edit function would be cool.

#70 Tales from the Crypto on 12.04.19 at 1:38 am

Don a Vancouver lad. He saved his hard earned cash. 117K. Put it on the Einstein Exchange. Kept it in fiat cash waiting for the right opportunity to buy into bitcoin.

Einstein Exchange disappeared. Whooooops. Not insured money. 16 million missing. And what did the receivers find? Some office equipment totaling 45K.

Also, if you put a ruler on 2019…it is flat. Yeah 20% gain if you bought the dip. For everyone else it wasn’t that great. 2017-2018 seems to tilt the right side of the ruler up.

#71 DON on 12.04.19 at 2:02 am

Correction on a prior post on Trump – it was Argentina and Brazil not Venezuela and Brazil.

#72 Smoking Man on 12.04.19 at 2:32 am

It’s getting dangerous to be truthful.

My silence is temporary….

#73 under the radar on 12.04.19 at 5:00 am

My client made a big financial commitment in Calgary . He will be opening a large retail/wholesale business in March. I begged him not to , I sincerely hope he knows what he is doing, because based on steerage comments , he could be in for some trouble.

#74 Shocked and Ashamed on 12.04.19 at 6:44 am

DELETED. Go away. Forever, you hater. – Garth

#75 David Pylyp on 12.04.19 at 7:16 am

Where can we find a list of ETF that are performing.

Nothing I have is near 5% gain YOY

A garden-variety ETF tracking the S&P 500 is ahead 22% YTD. – Garth

#76 LP on 12.04.19 at 7:53 am

#69 Blackdog on 12.04.19 at 1:28 am
…starting, not start. An edit function would be cool.

You’ve already got two of them. Just re-read – slowly, out loud if necessary.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:02 am

@#62 the Jag
Sorry Jag , complete coincidence,( for me not multiple posting), I was busy busy busy yesterday.
Ponzie must have been in his glory.

You must out of sorts.
The Jag is referring to themselves as “I” and “my”…

Dolce must be busy too.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:07 am

@#70 Tales from the Crypto
“Einstein Exchange disappeared. Whooooops. Not insured money. 16 million missing. And what did the receivers find? Some office equipment totaling 45K.”
++++

Yep, Cryptocash is an interesting idea but now all the criminals have moved in to take advantage of untraceable transactions…..
No thanks.

I wouldnt touch it with a barge pole ….yet.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 8:12 am

Trudeaus’ never miss a chance to stand out in a crowd.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-reax/division-pervades-nato-as-the-brain-dead-meet-the-delinquent-idUSKBN1Y8005

When will male fashion ditch the gawd awful brown “stepped in cow manure” shoes…?

#80 Randy on 12.04.19 at 8:21 am

Bubbles Everywhere……

#81 Buy? Curious? on 12.04.19 at 9:02 am

WHAT DID JUSTIN TRUDEAU JUST DO?!? WHAT THE FROBERSER BAY DID JUSTIN TRUDEAU JUST DOOOOOOOO?!?

#82 Avid reader on 12.04.19 at 9:15 am

Great post to keep us on track.

#83 Shocked and Shamed on 12.04.19 at 9:17 am

BANNED

#84 James on 12.04.19 at 9:17 am

Busted again Mr socks.
How many times must we watch this piece of $hit step in $hit. Can T2 not keep his smug sarcastic little mouth shut. In spite of what he said about Trump (the truth) he is a waste of human life. Have the balls to stand up and talk directly to the Orange blob or shut up. Don’t do it like a mean schoolgirl trying to smear someone behind their back. We are doomed unless the people of this country can realize what an incompetent prime minister he is. First non-confidence vote please!!!!! Remove Trudeau he is not fit for the job and never was.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/world/europe/trump-video-nato.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

#85 Re-Cowtown on 12.04.19 at 9:20 am

T2 gossiping like he’s at a PTA meeting. No wonder no one takes him seriously.

I stand by my comments; he is a naive, immature and chronically inexperienced. Most people with twelve years in politics have twelve years of experience. T2’s managed to chalk up one month of experience 144 times. Ground Hog Day!

Without his handlers to edit him he’s in trouble. He keeps repeating the same dumb mistakes over and over.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trudeau-johnson-macron-appear-to-be-mocking-trump-at-nato-summit-in-surfaced-video

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.19 at 9:22 am

Well, looks like Trudeau went one “step” further with foot in mouth” disease……. brown shoe and all…..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/04/trump-macron-trudeau-johnson-video-candid-joking-nato/

Its good to know Trudeau’s second term as PM will be just as painfully gaff prone as his first…..

#87 Jesse on 12.04.19 at 9:37 am

#7 Dogman01 on 12.03.19 at 4:06 pm
Jason Kenny = Charlatan and Carpetbagger

I was hoping for some rationality…..but it’s even worse than the last 40 years of CONS in Alberta.

40 Years – The inability of these guys to grow the Heritage Fund, reign in government spending, diversify the economy.

*********************************************

Can we stop comparing Alberta’s Heritage Fund to Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Alberta is a small province in a large country that transfers over $20 Billion/year to Quebec. Norway doesn’t have to pay off Quebec every year, they actually get to keep their wealth.

Alberta transfers zero to Quebec, or anyplace else. – Garth

#88 Dharma Bum on 12.04.19 at 9:45 am

#12 AACI Homedog

Trying to get my BIL’s to read & heed these things, I am.
——————————————————————–

What is it about BILs?

I got a couple of them that have shunned equity based investments for the last 30+ years.

They have preached that it’s all a rigged game, and that everything is going to go to hell in a hand basket.

I stopped trying to convince them otherwise many years ago. I’ve since retired. They wonder out loud how I was able to.

Nihilism is just self defeating.

#89 Dharma Bum on 12.04.19 at 9:52 am

#70 Tales from the Crypto

Also, if you put a ruler on 2019…it is flat. Yeah 20% gain if you bought the dip.
——————————————————————–

Hence the credo to invest when you have the money and STAY INVESTED.

Given a reasonable time horizon (i.e., your working life), your ruler will tilt up!

#90 Dharma Bum on 12.04.19 at 9:57 am

By the way….

Is that your ruler tilting up, or are you just happy to see me?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Waw7pvF1ZSk

#91 Sail Away on 12.04.19 at 10:04 am

#81 Buy? Curious? on 12.04.19 at 9:02 am

WHAT DID JUSTIN TRUDEAU JUST DO?!? WHAT THE FROBERSER BAY DID JUSTIN TRUDEAU JUST DOOOOOOOO?!?

———————————

This won’t end well. Sanctimonious little snit.

#92 cowtown cowboy on 12.04.19 at 10:21 am

DELETED

#93 Sail Away on 12.04.19 at 10:37 am

And, finally… a problem Trudeau may be qualified to address:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5382210

#94 Tony on 12.04.19 at 10:51 am

Re: #46 Capt. Serious on 12.03.19 at 9:07 pm

The U.S. dollar will likely be supplanted in the next 10 years. The U.S. dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. That could change everything.

Not in your lifetime or that of your children. – Garth

#95 cowtown cowboy on 12.04.19 at 11:05 am

Once again…thank you Ontario for voting in the ‘least intelligent leader’ in the history of this once great land..

There..Better Garth?

#96 AB Boxster on 12.04.19 at 11:20 am

Justin Trudeau -> Irrelevant

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.04.19 at 11:44 am

#88 Dharma Bum on 12.04.19 at 9:45 am
#12 AACI Homedog

Trying to get my BIL’s to read & heed these things, I am.
——————————————————————–

What is it about BILs?

I got a couple of them that have shunned equity based investments for the last 30+ years.

They have preached that it’s all a rigged game, and that everything is going to go to hell in a hand basket.

I stopped trying to convince them otherwise many years ago. I’ve since retired. They wonder out loud how I was able to.

Nihilism is just self defeating.
____

I got a few BIL’s that are the same. Two are headed for great DB Pensions, one is 100% RE (but will likely be alright as he’s played the long game and been cash-flow positive the whole time.)

None of these dudes have given any thought whatsoever to long term investing in financial markets.

In fact, one of them after deducting that we’ve been at the investing game long enough to possibly have a decent chunk – began showing some attitude on the topic!

I have one bro who thinks like me on the long game investing front – that’s it.

#98 Jesse on 12.04.19 at 11:53 am

#94 Tony on 12.04.19 at 10:51 am
Re: #46 Capt. Serious on 12.03.19 at 9:07 pm

The U.S. dollar will likely be supplanted in the next 10 years. The U.S. dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. That could change everything.

**************************************

Not likely, in fact it will be much stronger. No one wants Euro’s, the EU is a basket case with awful growth prospects, rising nationalism and poor demographics. The Yen isn’t coming back, they stopped having babies. Canadian dollars are a joke, with rising socialism, no babies and anti-western (oil, gas and mineral resources) policy the CAD will suffer.

What’s left? The USD will be King Dollar again. The world can’t compete.

#99 Damifino on 12.04.19 at 12:07 pm

Discretion is the better part of valor unless your name is Donald Trump. Otherwise… put a sock in it. (A cotton argyle should do the trick). A man with such media savvy ought to have known better. I grow weary.

#100 Sail away on 12.04.19 at 12:10 pm

#63 unbalanced on 12.03.19 at 11:25 pm

Thank you Gravy Train for explaining something so easy, that some people are so blind to see. Thats how my 35 yr old friend became a millionaire. Its called inside trading. I wont say anymore about this. I just wish some people would sail away

——————————————

Illegal trading is not a mind-blowingly complicated concept.

Is Trump doing this in some manner that the millions of people scrutinizing his every breath have not managed to see… but you, with your omniscience, are now revealing to the world?

If you have no evidence for the allegations, your comment is just unsupported slander. Contemptible behaviour.

#101 James on 12.04.19 at 12:57 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 12.04.19 at 2:32 am

It’s getting dangerous to be truthful.

My silence is temporary….
______________________________________
Your silence is golden. Did you loose your tin foil hat?
How did the triple bypass go and the double lung transplant go Old Man? The last Periscope video I watched with you had you coughing and hacking like an emphysema commercial against smoking. Man your grandchildren must love sitting on your lap!

#102 Lost...but not leased on 12.04.19 at 1:01 pm

#60 DON on 12.03.19 at 10:34 pm
@#44 Gregor Samsa on 12.03.19 at 8:41 pm

In small-town BC things aren’t so pretty either. Western Forest Products and the Loggers are into a 6 month strike. This is the result of years of continued bad planning and diversification but it is hitting now. The local tow company in Port McNeil (used to towing forestry breakdowns) recently refused to become a repo service that is in demand.

=================================

Flying over BC….one sees a checker board pattern of clearcuts. What isn’t cut seems to be mostly 2nd growth.

Driving around BC…many mills’ yards seem stuffed to the gills with raw logs.

IMHO…..this is a sunset industry….there will not be any comeback.

#103 Gravy Train on 12.04.19 at 1:18 pm

#100 Sail away on 12.04.19 at 12:10 pm
“[…] If you have no evidence for the allegations, […]” We should have his tax returns soon. :)

“[…] your comment is just unsupported slander.[…]” I think you meant to say ‘libel’, not ‘slander’. I don’t believe I’ve libeled or slandered anyone. Show me where I did. :)

“[…] Contemptible behaviour.” Donald Trump slanders and libels his opponents daily—sometimes even his fellow Republicans. Is his behaviour contemptible also? I suspect that you feel it’s not, and that ethics and morals only applies when it suits you! :)

#104 TRUMP2020 on 12.04.19 at 1:28 pm

TWO-FACED TRUDEAU!!!!!!

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trump-calls-trudeau-two-faced-after-video-of-reception-remarks-1.1357393

#105 unbalanced on 12.04.19 at 1:34 pm

Garth said Trump did his Grinch thing. If that doesnt spell it out. Slander Smander Sail far far away

#106 Sail away on 12.04.19 at 1:38 pm

#94 Tony on 12.04.19 at 10:51 am

The U.S. dollar will likely be supplanted in the next 10 years. The U.S. dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. That could change everything.

——————————————-

Tony, Tony, Tony… you and your predictions. You’ve been 0 for 3 since I started tracking them (remember the markets would crash hugely in November?). Is it in your best interest, in terms of credibility, to continue predicting?

What’s an acceptable rate of success? Better than zero?

#107 Doug in London on 12.04.19 at 1:49 pm

@Long Time Lurker, post #32:
That’s good news if there ever was, especially now when wind power is cheap enough to be competitive. In the present time, Alberta needs more pipeline capacity to get their oil to market, but in the longer term there’s a need to diversify the economy and this project is a good start. Good work, Suncor. I think I’ll hold on to those Suncor shares I scooped up earlier this year when they were on sale.

@DON, post #57:
Finally someone here who understands the logic behind making an effort to reduce the environmental damage we cause now, rather than leaving it to future generations.

#108 Sail away on 12.04.19 at 1:58 pm

#103 Gravy Train on 12.04.19 at 1:18 pm

————————————

Gravy, you didn’t make any allegations, slander/libel, or exhibit contemptible behaviour to my knowledge.

My post was for Unbalanced. Unless the two of you are one and the same… hmmm…?

#109 Shawn Allen on 12.04.19 at 2:10 pm

Invesco’s misleading chart

#67 Stoph on 12.04.19 at 12:15 am wisely said:

I agree with the chart’s message that all-in-all markets go up over time, that markets go up more often than not, and that markets usually recover soon enough after a downturn. However, the chart poorly represents returns upon initial impression as the shaded area does not correspond to returns.

In looking at the 70’s, the loss of almost 50% over two years doesn’t have anywhere close to the same area as the that +100% gain that’s needed to recover from this loss, which took about 7 years.

A bar graph of yearly returns using a log scale would a give a more accurate impression of returns.

***************************
It is true that the Invesco chart is a misrepresentation.

Even a 100% drop, a total wipeout would look small on that chart if it came after a gain of several hundred percent.

If you want to see the size of the downs compared to the ups for equities look at a long term growth graph on a log scale. Look at it on a total return basis to be fair.

Look at a graph for a balanced portfolio.

It is true that you win over the decades in markets and that the dips can be ridden through. But I see no excuse for Invesco’s horribly misleading chart. I see this as a reason to avoid Invesco. Thank you Stoph.

#110 TS on 12.04.19 at 2:33 pm

#87

Can we stop comparing Alberta’s Heritage Fund to Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Alberta is a small province in a large country that transfers over $20 Billion/year to Quebec. Norway doesn’t have to pay off Quebec every year, they actually get to keep their wealth.

Alberta transfers zero to Quebec, or anyplace else. – Garth

————————–

Why not compare to Norway? Only slightly higher population than Alberta, almost same income per capita, similar climate, etc. Seems like the perfect comparison.

Also, Garth I was hoping you would be the grown-up in the room re equalization but I won’t get my hopes up. Yes, Alberta does not directly send funds to Quebec, but they did send via federal income tax payments more than $600 billion than they received back in federal services. The feds didn’t save or invest this money..they spent it somewhere that wasn’t Alberta. Sounds like a transfer to me.

Alberta sent nothing to anyone. Albertans pay their federal taxes at the same rate as everyone else in Canada. How the feds allocate it to ensure all people have the same services does not actually affect Alberta. That is the grown-up position. – Garth

#111 n1tro on 12.04.19 at 3:38 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trump-calls-trudeau-two-faced-after-video-of-reception-remarks-1.1357393

Slander? Libel? Or just the Truth? Won’t matter to Trudeau lovers as he can do no wrong right?

#112 Lesser Ape on 12.04.19 at 4:01 pm

The chart is problematic because it causes people to draw the wrong conclusions because working in percentages results in the green looking a lot bigger than the red.

Suppose that there was a loss of 99% on that chart followed by a gain of 200%. The 200% gain would look way bigger than the 99% loss. But the outcome for the investor would be a 97% loss in capital.

Not to say Garth’s overall argument is wrong–long term investing is great. It’s just that that chart is terrible and I think deliberately deceptive.

#113 Blackdog on 12.04.19 at 4:44 pm

@LP That one single, small typo I made bugged you enough to give me suggestions how to avoid in future. You must really get your panties in a bunch when it’s you who does it.