Wrexit

Most of us outside AB don’t care about Wexit. But we will. Western alienation has the potential to create political chaos in Canada, send the feds into a tailspin, blow up the Conservative party and send a shudder through the national economy.

But Alberta isn’t going anywhere. Just like Quebec. And Jason Kenney, the current premier, is a fool if he continues to gently fan the flames of pissed-offedness in his realm. There is nothing but loss and hurt that flows out of thinking a hunk of the nation with a few million people in it can become sovereign. There is no legal path out. No exit is possible. No prime minister could grant one. Nor should any thinking cowboy want it.

Which brings us to Adam.

“I’ve been reading your blog since 2010 and sincerely appreciate the wisdom imparted. The financial advice keeps our family on track and lets our two dogs eat brand name kibble. You know, the good stuff.”

Fine. But this blog dog has a problem.

“We’re currently renting a house due to the continual year over year price declines here in Calgary. We also own a downtown apartment that we haven’t been able to sell.  Each year we have a realtor tell us the market price and put it on the market, only to receive no offers. Not even low balls. Meanwhile, market prices continue to decline. Should I start aggressively discounting the price or just continue to rent it? Rent covers expenses, mortgage interest and a little of the mortgage principal. What to do?”

Cowtown condo values currently sit about 17% below their peak. That’s worse than detached places, which are down about half that amount. Of course, higher-end Calgary real estate has been a disaster for most of a decade. That won’t end soon, and Wexit would send prices cascading lower.

Calgary (and to a lesser extent, Edmonton) inflated badly, saw a wave of speculative buying/investing fomented by shameless pumpers like REIN (Real Estate Investment Network) and flew high along with crude until the oil collapse. I remember visiting the city a dozen years ago and warning that prices could topple by 15%. The media was gobsmacked. Realtors flogged and ridiculed me. But I was wrong. The drop was  20%.

Lately sales have picked up, but only in the lower price brackets. “Employment has shifted in the city, with job growth occurring in our non-traditional sectors and often at a different pay scale. This is consistent with the shift to more affordable housing product,” the real estate board sad recently, acknowledging oil’s sorry state. “However, at the higher end of the market the amount of oversupply is rising, as supply cannot shift enough to compensate for the reductions in demand. This is likely causing divergent trends in pricing and preventing prices from stabilizing across the city.”

That’s putting it mildly. Calgary (and Edmonton) housing is cheap, struggling, and destined to plunge if the Wexit delusion continues to infect the minds of otherwise sound men. Evidence? Sure, it’s called ‘Montreal,’ a city of four million people where the median single-family house price is $355,000, thanks in large part to a legacy of political instability and wingnut sovereigntists. Compare that to Toronto, a five-hour drive away, where a detached now averages $1.323 million.

Of course, oil was once $140 a barrel and now it’s $55 on a good day. We all know the country’s bickering, indecision, and regionality has prevented building the pipeline infrastructure the oil patch needs, so the Canadian price has tanked. We know the Dippers in BC hate the cowboys, while the T2 Libs in Ottawa were blanked and shunned in the West. Meanwhile Alberta voters have swung from majority Cons to majority NDP and now majority super-Cons in the last three elections. The office vacancy rate in Calgary is ridiculous and the gleaming Bow tower stands as a semi-empty monument to bad planning, too much testo and wishful thinking. None of this inspires confidence. No wonder capital’s gone elsewhere. And now Wexit. The coup de grace.

So, Adam, you might want to dump this condo sooner than later. Sure, prices could increase, but they might also ride the separatist elevator to the basement. It’s possible the entire market could collapse. No sales. No offers. Why would anyone buy in a region destined for economic depression or political ostracism? As international capital flees instability, so would more jobs. The price of independence is prosperity. And opportunity. Talk of an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta revenue agency and an Alberta police force – all approved by the governing party on the weekend – means more overhead, cost, tax and aggrandizement for charlatan leaders.

Finally, look at others for guidance. Brexit has turned into a three-year nightmare for the UK. Trump is abandoning his trade wars and protectionism. Nowhere are nationalism or sealed borders making people wealthier or more secure. It’s the big fiction of our times.

Sell, Adam. Release all the equity you can, trash the debt and stay renting. Keep the car gassed, too.

149 comments ↓

#1 Remembrancer on 12.02.19 at 2:43 pm

A question and a comment…

Q: If Adam sells the condo presumably at a loss, that qualifies as a capital loss he can apply to other gains, correct? Assuming of course, and I’m sure he was, he’s been keeping the CRA up to speed on this as a rental business investment?

C: Hey AB, a friendly tip from ON, if you get your own police force, keep an eye on its budget for a tricked out shagging wagon for the king to get driven around in…

Spoiler alert, sanctimonious cost cutting Cons love other people’s money as much as Libs and Dippers do…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-camper-van-1.5032704

#2 Early Bird on 12.02.19 at 3:08 pm

K. I will play. First?

#3 Apostle on 12.02.19 at 3:23 pm

Wexit does not have to be legal nor orderly. Who is going to stop it ? The first and major step would be for all Albertans to stop paying federal tax and remit it to the province instead.

#4 MF on 12.02.19 at 3:25 pm

#96 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 12:43 pm

“Canada already loses between 30-40% of all its immigrants within 10 years of showing up. You can’t expect these folks to stick around if they never get anywhere and keep getting pounded with new taxes.”

-100% wrong again.

Starting to get real worriesome too. One of our greatest posters on here has been losing some battles lately and seems to be drifting somewhere weird. Another person complaining about taxes? How lame. Could it be a result of exposure to some us VS them USA style propaganda?

I don’t know and I digress. This information was released in 2016:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/research/interprovincial-mobility-retention-inflow-landings-2008-2013.html

“Reading Table 1: The case of Ontario as an example
Of the 430,275 permanent residents who landed in Ontario between 2008 and 2013, 400,410 still lived in Ontario in tax year 2013. Thus, the retention rate for Ontario is 93.1% (400,410/430,275).

29,865 left Ontario and lived in other provinces (out-migration), while 37,045 permanent residents who declared a destination province other than Ontario, moved to Ontario (in-migration). Thus, the net of in-migrants and out-migrants for Ontario is +7,180 (more moved in than moved out). As a result, the net inflow rate is 101.7% (a slight gain).”

-I hope what you are referring to is the outflow rate of PEI? Because all data points to a retention rate of 90% or higher in Canada in general, and Ontario specifically. Read further in the report and you will see that Alberta and BC each had well above 90% retention also. Quebec was slightly lower at 87%. Those are our most populated provinces.

The retention rate hovered around 30% (the lowest in Canada) for PEI however, and was followed by the other maritime provinces (who are starting to retain more, and have double the retention rate of PEI of about 60% themselves). Where did those immigrants go when they left PEI? Other provinces like Ontarariariowe (and BC).

IH we get it. You espouse small town living. Nothing wrong with that. But the falsehood that immigrants are leaving Canada is inaccurate as best and sounds like propaganda at worst. It’s not supported by any data whatsoever. People can choose to live where they want. Some like you prefer small town living, others big cities. The data seem to point to a much higher proportion of people choosing the latter. Time to accept it and move on.

MF

#5 jerry on 12.02.19 at 3:27 pm

Garth , YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG ON THE ISSUE OF A PROVINCE withdrawing from Confederation . Quebec came very close and the SCC has recognized there is a valid protocol to have a Vote and leave Confederation I the Citizens of that province so desire. Alberta has many valid claims all being ignored by Trudeau. Western Separation is REAL and is a Existential moment for Confederation. I have no idea where you spend your time but if you are in Calgary or Rural Alberta this fact is obvious. Trudeau allows and supports a Double standard in giving Quebec support on Pipelines which is clearly a Federal matter of Jurisdiction. Legault and Blanchet cannot have it both ways, to Sabotage Western Energy/pipelines and then demand over $13 Billion Dollars each year from Alberta in Equalization transfers

Read the Clarity Act. No legal separation without approval from a majority of all governments. Don’t let the Wexit snakeoil salesguys spin you. – Garth

#6 TurnerNation on 12.02.19 at 3:28 pm

Why are they hamering us? Don’t ask scientists, they will repeat what is necessary for their jobs, grants.
No instead listen to the all the Queen’s Men – the bankers.
It’s looking like they will be almost bankrupting 1st World countries simply with strokes of their pen.
All to enrich their exploitative activities in poorer countries: of people, drugs, and resources.
Learn from history. The British Empire was built on the Opium Trade. Today it continues, we have an opiate crisis. Paid for using our tax dollars no less (Van’s mayor said exactly this in their hiking) . A perfect war that never ends.
As yourself what is the “economic justice” they speak of, what does this mean to your homes and capital gains. It is moving SO fast now into 2020-2021. Don’t listen to me just watch. The pawns have been deputized, PM.

“Carney’s colleagues in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) amplified this message on October 15 saying: “What is needed is a Global Green New Deal that combines environmental recovery, financial stability and economic justice through massive public investment in decarbonizing our energy, transportation and food systems while guaranteeing jobs for displaced workers and supporting low carbon growth paths in developing countries… through the transfer of appropriate technologies”.

#7 Yukon Elvis on 12.02.19 at 3:57 pm

Most of us outside AB don’t care about Wexit. But we will. Western alienation has the potential to create political chaos in Canada, send the feds into a tailspin, blow up the Conservative party and send a shudder through the national economy.
…………………………………..

So how to appease Western alienation/discontent ? They have a pretty good argument and a solid list of grievances.

#8 trains trains and trains on 12.02.19 at 3:57 pm

That train is coal-powered, have you no shame?

#9 Yukon Elvis on 12.02.19 at 4:11 pm

Read the Clarity Act. No legal separation without approval from a majority of all governments. Don’t let the Wexit snakeoil salesguys spin you. – Garth
…………………………………

Did all governments / provinces sign the Clarity Act or was it just Jean Cretien and his Liberal government of the day? Is the Clarity Act even constitutional ?

Yes. – Garth

#10 Tater on 12.02.19 at 4:14 pm

Wexit would likely be a disaster, but absent any other solutions being put forward to solve Alberta’s problems, it could get quite popular.

#11 Sail away on 12.02.19 at 4:16 pm

#8 trains trains and trains on 12.02.19 at 3:57 pm

That train is coal-powered, have you no shame?

—————————————

…and it’s a millennial on the tracks who prefers to complain about the train instead of moving to avoid disaster.

#12 Always Lurking on 12.02.19 at 4:18 pm

“Nowhere are nationalism or sealed borders making people wealthier or more secure.”

What about Poland?

#13 JSS on 12.02.19 at 4:24 pm

Alberta Pension Plan, Alberta Provincial Police, Alberta Federal Tax Collection agency… all these ideas will require more provincial government workers, and higher taxes, and more debt.
Dumb ideas…

#14 Incubus on 12.02.19 at 4:27 pm

“There is no legal path out. No exit is possible. No prime minister could grant one. ”

I dont understand, they just have to do a referendum on the matter and become a new state in the US.

I can write the question”

Do you want to separate from Canada and become the state of Alberta in United State of America? Yes or No.

Call Trump, to see if he is interested to grab the second petrolum reserve in the world for free.

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 4:29 pm

@#5 Jerry
“… there is a valid protocol to have a Vote and leave Confederation I the Citizens of that province so desire. Alberta has many valid claims all being ignored by Trudeau. Western Separation is REAL and is a Existential moment for Confederation…..”

########
Garth
Please let the Wexit-tears rave on.
Its very entertaining and the disappointment will be even more so when they realize “Jay Kay” has lied to them…

#16 Yukon Elvis on 12.02.19 at 4:42 pm

#9 Yukon Elvis on 12.02.19 at 4:11 pm
Read the Clarity Act. No legal separation without approval from a majority of all governments. Don’t let the Wexit snakeoil salesguys spin you. – Garth
…………………………………

Did all governments / provinces sign the Clarity Act or was it just Jean Cretien and his Liberal government of the day? Is the Clarity Act even constitutional ?

Yes. – Garth

#10 Tater on 12.02.19 at 4:14 pm
…………………………

Not so. The Legislation was passed in 2000, some five years after the 1995 Quebec referendum on separation. As can be expected, it was a controversial bill (Bill C20) at that time and was not universally supported in the House of Commons and was widely opposed by Quebec provincial political parties. And no provincial legislatures signed on. And its constitutionality has been questioned.

The Clarity Act was passed by the House of Commons. No provinces need agree. It’s law. Just like legal weed, which you guys have obviously embraced. – Garth

#17 Mr Fundamental on 12.02.19 at 4:48 pm

I like the advice. Sell the condo and buy index funds instead. Fill up the TFSA and RRSPs.

#18 Dill on 12.02.19 at 4:50 pm

“Calgary (and Edmonton) housing is cheap, struggling, and destined to plunge if the Wexit delusion continues to infect the minds of otherwise sound men. Evidence? Sure, it’s called ‘Montreal,’ a city of four million people the median single-family house price is $355,000, thanks in large part to a legacy of political instability and wingnut sovereigntists. Compare that to Toronto, a five-hour drive away, where a detached now averages $1.323 million.”

Are you suggesting family shelter priced at $355K is a bad thing? Those poor suckers in Montreal who don’t have to leverage and mortgage themselves to death.

Are you serious? – Garth

#19 Bucky on 12.02.19 at 4:54 pm

A bit wildly optimistic on that Canadian oil price Garth. Western Canadian Select goes for US$30/barrel. If that same barrel was produced in Texas and didn’t have to find space in a pipe to get it to market it would be worth $55 (West Texas Intermediate). Bonus – get it to tidewater on the North America West Coast and it is now worth $65 (Alaska North Slope Crude, delivered to West Coast – even in the US there is insufficient pipeline capacity from mid-continent to the West Coast). Now, if only there were some way for Canada to recoup the massive discount we have been generously giving the US on Canadian crude, what oh what could we possibly do?

The price quoted was WTI, of course, not WCS. – Garth

#20 Sail away on 12.02.19 at 4:59 pm

#14 Incubus on 12.02.19 at 4:27 pm

“There is no legal path out. No exit is possible. No prime minister could grant one. ”

I dont understand, they just have to do a referendum on the matter and become a new state in the US.

——————————–

The land and oil does not belong to individual Albertans- It belongs to all Canadians. What makes you think they could just walk away with it?

#21 Brett in Calgary on 12.02.19 at 5:02 pm

I saw a MLS listing in a rural town outside Calgary that offered a $500 credit towards buying a snow blower to the lucky buyer. Not sure if that’s just funny, sad or what it is?

#22 Apostle on 12.02.19 at 5:06 pm

“Alberta Pension Plan, Alberta Provincial Police, Alberta Federal Tax Collection agency… all these ideas will require more provincial government workers, and higher taxes, and more debt.
Dumb ideas…”

Is it better to give money to Ottawa to fund those well-paid jobs than keep that money in your own province ?

#23 Kitsilano Kid on 12.02.19 at 5:14 pm

Move along. No housing bubble here. Still loving my YVR real estate portfolio – T2, Premier Hulk Horgan and Mayor Kennedy Lenin please keep the immigrants and Amazon bots coming to YVR. My cup runneth over with rental income.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-why-canadas-housing-and-household-debt-risks-remain-contained/

#24 45north on 12.02.19 at 5:15 pm

Of course, oil was once $140 a barrel and now it’s $55 on a good day.

Peak Oil is real. The biggest oil fields have been found. They’re the easiest to find and the cheapest to develop. Everything that comes after is smaller and more expensive. Other fields such as the Alberta tar sands, deep sea drilling and fracking are smaller and more expensive. But the price movement of oil contradicts peak oil. It’s not more expensive, it’s cheaper. So what gives?

One factor is technical development of fracking – people doing it are getting very good at it. But it’s also the politics of the Middle East – I’m thinking of the Saudi Royal Family – they’re selling cheap and in volume because they have to.

The next move is a no-brainer. Build the pipeline to Ontario as well as the refineries to supply Ontario with a reliable source of fuel and petro-chemicals. Give Québec the option to buy in.

There’s an analogy with Québec – it poured in massive political support for the development of Hydro-Québec – an investment that has paid off many times. Political support for the pipeline has to come from the Federal Government – it’s time for Justin Trudeau to step up to the plate.

#25 Kurt on 12.02.19 at 5:30 pm

#19 Bucky on 12.02.19 at 4:54 pm – WCS will *never* command the same price as WTI – it’s heavier and is more expensive to process. That said, the current discount is driven primarily by the shipping bottleneck.

#26 AGuyInVancouver on 12.02.19 at 5:40 pm

#5 jerry on 12.02.19 at 3:27 pm
Garth , YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG ON THE ISSUE OF A PROVINCE withdrawing from Confederation . Quebec came very close and the SCC has recognized there is a valid protocol to have a Vote and leave Confederation I the Citizens of that province so desire. Alberta has many valid claims all being ignored by Trudeau. Western Separation is REAL and is a Existential moment for Confederation. I have no idea where you spend your time but if you are in Calgary or Rural Alberta this fact is obvious. Trudeau allows and supports a Double standard in giving Quebec support on Pipelines which is clearly a Federal matter of Jurisdiction. Legault and Blanchet cannot have it both ways, to Sabotage Western Energy/pipelines and then demand over $13 Billion Dollars each year from Alberta in Equalization transfers
_ _ _
Alberta whining, so tiresome. Let’s boot them out now before we’re all stuck paying the billions required to clean-up their abandoned wells.

#27 Parksville Prankster on 12.02.19 at 5:45 pm

Alberta has clearly, and justifiably, had enough of tough broncs, ornery bankers, navel gazing environmentalist, entitled nations within nations, and obstinate federal politicians.

Rex Murphy nailed it:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-this-is-not-a-standard-downturn-and-albertans-are-not-whining

#28 joblo on 12.02.19 at 5:59 pm

“Most of us outside AB don’t care about Wexit. But we will. Western alienation has the potential to create political chaos in Canada, send the feds into a tailspin, blow up the Conservative party and send a shudder through the national economy.”

Well done Kanada, ya gets what the politicos deserve.

#29 Alberta Public Sector Employee on 12.02.19 at 6:17 pm

What about those of who have just had our pensions handed over to AIMCo? Who, in turn, just bought a pipeline.

Kenney’s got the whole province’s future tied up in Oil and Gas, like it or not?

My pension represented a significant chunk of my retirement plan and I’m a bit terrified.

How safe is it do you think and what should those of us affected do to make up for potential (inevitable) losses?

#30 Ray on 12.02.19 at 6:18 pm

The next ten years will most likely be the most transformative to human civilizations. Progress in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, G5 internet and Biogenetics promises to be revolutionary in what is possible. The greatest opportunities are ahead of us, the greatest threats are ahead of us. Almost every aspect of what is called “work”, be it any repetitive manual labor to any intellectually professional capability will be “ improved and optimized” by either robotics or AI. Within 10 years, self -driving trucks will be ubiquitous for delivering goods from city to city. Automated self-unloading robots will clear the trailer, sort the good to baskets and then drones will/could complete “the last mile “ deliveries . For example, Productivity improvements by delivery cost reductions will be the driving force for self driving trucks, but by doing so, the whole infrastructure for truck driving is going to be diminish or eliminated. Think about drivers, highway restaurants, hotel accommodations, filling stations, tow-motor operators, logistic planners, etc., the whole system, and the “jobs” that are currently required to support it. This could be will be a fraction of what they are to-day. Labour demand reduction will strain the societal fabric unless preemptive planning is implemented before a social crisis begins. An unemployed truck driver will not be able to flip burgers at McDonalds, because a robot will have already taken that job. This pattern will be in place for almost any job currently required. Think about a million pissed off armed truck/taxis/tow-motor drivers. !!!
“It is the best of times, It is the worst of times”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnBAdnNIIXk

#31 Lost...but not leased on 12.02.19 at 6:21 pm

B.C. condo owners brace for sticker shock as insurance rates surge ’50 to 300%’

https://globalnews.ca/news/6237709/bc-strata-insurance-surge/

QUOTE:
B.C. condo owners are bracing for sticker shock amid surging insurance rates for their homes.

“Rates are increasing for people in policies now anywhere from 50 to 300 per cent, and deductibles are going from the conventional $10,000 or $25,000 to $100,000, $250,000 or $500,000,” said Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium Home Owners Association.

The reasons for the surging rates are multiple, but one of the factors is the sky-high value of B.C. properties.

===================

COMMENT:

More evidence that strata is THE worst RE investment…

#32 the Jaguar on 12.02.19 at 6:23 pm

In Alberta there are:
45 First Nations in three treaty areas. 140 reserves.
The chest thumping and bluster coming from the pie holes of these “Wexiters” appears not to have taken this into account. I find this disrespectful. To borrow from Greta, “How dare you”?
Full disclosure: The Jag’s family arrived in southern Alberta in 1885. Coal was king in those days, and early arrivals found their first shelter in dugouts built into the coulees in southern Alberta to survive the ‘elements’. Wasn’t even called Alberta in those days. The province has accomplished a lot since then, especially given its land locked location, and this can largely be attributed to the hard work of every Albertan that has come ahead of the current occupants who include too many whiners for my taste. ( Check and see if their birth certificates reveal a Saskatchewan birthplace……just sayin’)
Do we have excess commercical and residential real estate occupancy issues? Yes, because we overbuilt just like the last time in the early 1980’s when we said we would be smarter next time. We were not. The ‘sprawl’ of both Calgary and Edmonton is unconscionable. There is no defense for it. While it’s true we are going through a ‘rough patch’ economically, we have been through them before and we still have solid fundamentals to see us through the transition if we show some restraint and common sense. We need to work smarter based on a changing paradigm. There will always be winners and losers in any economic cycle. Choose your financial investments carefully to loser your risk exposure accordingly. Threatening to ‘pick up ones toys and go home’ isn’t a solution, it’s a tantrum. An end game. The last refuge of those who are unable to grasp hope, faith, and opportunity and continue to build the legacy of this great province.
I am not inclined to join you. I admire and appreciate the fine work of the RCMP. I will chose to remain a citizen of the federation of Canada. Ernest Shackleton had it right when he proclaimed “Through Endurance We Conquer”. Jason Kenney should be reminded that use of the “diversion or distraction” tactic can backfire with the silent majority.
Enough said. Maybe Fishman will take me out for a spin on the boat to calm my nerves…..

#33 real eyes on 12.02.19 at 6:23 pm

“Spoiler alert, sanctimonious cost cutting Cons love other people’s money as much as Libs and Dippers do…”

lol’d at this one. So painfully true. I’m rarely impressed with the left either but there is some kind of special brain sauce that makes many a right-winger uniquely oblivious. Best summed up by this magical quote from right-wing genius Craig T. Nelson:

– “We are a capitalistic society, OK? I go into business, I don’t make it, I go bankrupt, they’re not gonna bail me out. I’ve been on food stamps and welfare, anybody help me out? No.”

#34 Ustabe on 12.02.19 at 6:24 pm

Only peripherally related to today’s post but Jason Kenney is proposing regulation and legislation that would tell Doctors where they could work, how much they would be paid and allow the government to bring in replacement workers for union jobs.

https://www.hcamag.com/ca/business-news/alberta-introduces-bill-affecting-pay-rules-for-doctors-public-sector-workers/189935

Now that is a real, small C, hands off conservative plan, eh?

Jason Kenney, supposedly a conservative man, turning Alberta into Alabama one power grab piece of legislation at a time.

#35 JSS on 12.02.19 at 6:34 pm

#29 Alberta Public Sector Employee on 12.02.19 at 6:17 pm

I suppose if you’re under 55 years of age, you can quit and port the pension into a LIRA to some financial institution of your choice.

If you’re past 55 years of age, then there’s not much you can do. You’re stuck with a DB pension that might be risky.

Scary

#36 Dave on 12.02.19 at 6:36 pm

Is the Trans Canada pipeline really going to be built???

https://www.google.com/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/trans-mountain-construction-set-to-begin-with-pipe-in-the-ground-before-christmas/amp

#37 Treasure Island CEO -34,045,324.88 Offshore on 12.02.19 at 6:40 pm

So…..what you are saying is Calgary is a huge buying opportunity?

To see single detached homes in the beautiful neighborhood of Mt. Royal listed right now at 600k is incredible.

Calgary is a city. Yeah, oil is a big part. But there is a lot more than oil going on. Big infrastructure, universities, airports, even amazon opened up a big warehouse because there is a population of 1.3M. Calgary ain’t going anywhere.

Now let’s compare that to fly over BC. Canoe, BC where that same house costs the same price, 600k, population of 2,000 people, a sawmill, which is laying off people because the forestry sector is screwed and you have to drive to another town to find a grocery store on par with a 7-11 convenience store like food…and don’t tell me the climate and weather is so much better in BC…it still freezes, snows and the front row seat to the forest fires every year is not any better than the back row seat in AB. And consider the potential career growth in a small little town. There is always the ability to sell trinkets on the street and the local farmers market I guess.

Canada has about 8 good economic centers with only two that generation x and down will be able to sustain living in based on cost benefit: Calgary and Montreal.

#38 William R Drury on 12.02.19 at 6:41 pm

Trump is abandoning his tariff wars? Really when did that happen.

#39 Shawn Allen on 12.02.19 at 6:43 pm

Alberta Pubic Service Pension Worries?

#29 Alberta Public Sector Employee on 12.02.19 at 6:17 pm

What about those of who have just had our pensions handed over to AIMCo? Who, in turn, just bought a pipeline.

Kenney’s got the whole province’s future tied up in Oil and Gas, like it or not?

My pension represented a significant chunk of my retirement plan and I’m a bit terrified.

How safe is it do you think and what should those of us affected do to make up for potential (inevitable) losses?

*********************************
The Alberta public service pensions plans are very safe. Those already collecting have probably nothing to worry about. They will continue to be paid the the pension indexed at 60% of Alberta CPI.

The switch of the teachers pension plan to AIMCO will have very little impact, positive or negative.

Any pensions shortfalls (due to any reason) will continue to be made up by government employees still working and by the government. This has been the case for decades. The contribution rates on those pensions more than doubled in the past 30 years. I know this from personal experience.

Also, those collecting Alberta public service pensions can continue to collect those pensions when they move out of Alberta.

#40 akashic record on 12.02.19 at 6:44 pm

US, India, former USSR states, Yugoslavia, just to name a few cases – none of them followed a constitutional script to break away. None of them was “legal”.

#41 Shawn Allen on 12.02.19 at 6:47 pm

The Canada Pension Plan…

25 years ago it was very common to hear that the plan would be broke by about now.

Nope, the doomers were wrong then as they usually are.

The CPP is in great shape.

Before the CPPIB was created, the doomers were correct. Hence the change was made. – Garth

#42 genbizx on 12.02.19 at 6:48 pm

There’s plenty of fiction in both nationalist and globalist ideology. Believe it..

#43 Dave on 12.02.19 at 6:50 pm

Great idea, let’s separate, we’re a land locked province tied to a one trick pony that is in long term decline. Instead of collaborating and cooperating, Kenny is being divisive and alienating the Feds. Threats will work against him as even he understands Albertans were too stupid to elect any Liberals and now they’ve just realized they have no one to represent them. So why should the Feds bend over backwards for them? Isn’t buying a pipeline enough? How many were built during the Harpo regime?

#44 Dave on 12.02.19 at 6:54 pm

Garth,
you put it mildly. If there is any doubt that the future is not oil read this:

Apple now has a higher market cap than the entire US oil industry. Guess where things are headed…

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/Government-Face-Reality-Fossil-Fuel-Industry-Collapsing/

#45 Tom Grozny on 12.02.19 at 6:57 pm

“… ‘Montreal,’ a city of four million people where the median single-family house price is $355,000, thanks in large part to a legacy of political instability and wingnut sovereigntists..”

I thought renters in Montreal can apply for a tax refund of part of their rent on their tax returns. This means that Revenu Quebec can track landlord’s rental incomes easily. So landlords can’t avoid paying taxes on it and that changes the profitability of owning investment properties.

I thought this would explain most of the RE price difference, rather than political instability. Politics are unstable by definition anyway :)

#46 WEXIT! on 12.02.19 at 7:06 pm

Wexit is real.

Wexit is coming.

Wexit is necessary.

Wexit is right.

Wexit is good.

#47 AB Boxster on 12.02.19 at 7:08 pm

Oh I see.
So Alberta or any other province in Canada cannot separate, because the rest of Canada says it illegal to do so.

And Alberta cannot sell it’s energy products because the rest of Canada says it won’t let it, all the while they stuff their faces with energy imported from the rest of the world.

And when the climate change idiots decide to kill Alberta’s beef industry in order to deal with C02 cow farts, well golly her that will be just okeedokee.

And as the province becomes a have not province , on the scale of Canadian provincial patheticness, Albertans will rejoice that we have finally been put in our proper place in the confederation, by our government overlords and Marxist elites who despise those who actually create wealth.

And of course, the people of Alberta, some of the most independent, free thinking and government dispising citizens in the world will naturally just roll over and say “thank you sir. Can In have some more?”

You be dreaming in technicolor Mr. Turner.

#48 Dave on 12.02.19 at 7:08 pm

“What about those of who have just had our pensions handed over to AIMCo? Who, in turn, just bought a pipeline.

Kenney’s got the whole province’s future tied up in Oil and Gas, like it or not?

My pension represented a significant chunk of my retirement plan and I’m a bit terrified.

How safe is it do you think and what should those of us affected do to make up for potential (inevitable) losses?”

We’ll for starters look at how badly the Alberta Conservative governments have mismanaged the Alberta Heritage Trust fund. By investing in speculative ventures and other missteps, they managed to only grow the fund to 17 billion, while Norway’s is worth over 1 trillion. That charlatan Kenny is going to gut this province. Tax breaks for Oil companies that lay off staff after generating a profit at the expense of healthcare and education. I can’t believe that people aren’t outraged.

#49 Calum on 12.02.19 at 7:08 pm

As for WEXIT. I grew up in Ontario, knew my politics, president of local young Progressive Conservatives. I was a proud Canadian.

I moved out to Alberta in 1978. I heard them complain about Eastern Canada, and I though Albertans where a bunch of whiners.

I lost my job during the NEP, which was just a tax grab by an Eastern based government. I knew then I was wrong on my first impression of Albertans. They were correct, and they had valid concerns.

That was when I quit been a proud Canadian, and became a Western Canadians, first, foremost and only.

I live in BC now, and I think Albertans and Saskatchewan, should look out for themselves. With that a new federation, if not separated from Eastern Canada,

#50 Timmy on 12.02.19 at 7:09 pm

Garth,

You didn’t mention the loss of 6000-7000 jobs in government, health and education in Alberta that Kenny is cutting in order to give his oil buddies more corporate welfare. How can this not affect the housing market?

#51 AR on 12.02.19 at 7:14 pm

So tired of Alberta’s unrelenting whining. Always judging the less fortunate and then as soon as there is a whiff of hardship you become angry, loud, self-righteous victims. Suck it up and deal with it. Adapt. The world is changing fast. Make a plan. If necessary get Trump to adopt you. He’s as whiny and angry as you. Canada will gladly take Oregon and Washington in exchange.

#52 Stratovarious on 12.02.19 at 7:40 pm

You should consider combining two of your common themes into one post: Trump and Wexit! One “whisper” you hear is that Trump, upon winning in 2020, will offer to cooperate with, or even adopt, Alberta as a new territory of the US. Now that you are gasping for air, please remember that The Donald kept US troops in Syria for the express purpose of protecting the oil fields. Alberta, with its 4M barrels per day production, is most certainly worthy of US troops, if only to irritate T2 and his most admired US advocate, Obama. And during a second Trump term, the gloves really will be off. So the cowboys may still win, and Canada (or what is left of it) will lose 20% of its total export volume.

The comedy is non-stop tonight. – Garth

#53 Long-Time Lurker on 12.02.19 at 7:41 pm

#65 Tater on 12.02.19 at 8:19 am
#57 IHCTD9 on 11.28.19 at 10:59 pm
#19 Tater on 11.28.19 at 6:20 pm

…And it doesn’t matter how many times you say it, it doesn’t magically become true.

Kinda like the lord’s prayer.

>It worked for this guy.

How MyPillow Founder & CEO Mike Lindell Went From Crack Addict To Self-Made Multimillionaire | CNBC

55,431 views•Sep 22, 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJbdj3SMzlM

#54 SunDays on 12.02.19 at 7:41 pm

#24 45north on 12.02.19 at 5:15 pm

Peak Oil is real.

——————-

The fix for low prices is… low prices.

A Real Conversation with Mark Gordon: Unprecedented Opportunity in Oil Markets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhc6vyxVsDs

#55 Dan Anise on 12.02.19 at 7:43 pm

JSS, I worked for 27 years for a large construction union and just lost my job 3 months ago. I turned 61 and took out my pension and transferred it to my insurance/advisor guy and got 50% in 20 year GIC LRIF’s 2.5% and 50% in 2.5% 10 year compound interest GIC interest rates.

My $425,000 LRIF lasts 20 years and brings in $27,000 a year plus my $7,500 a year in early C.P.P and no debts. I have 1 year’s of income $35,000 in reserve, savings accounts and my $425,000 10 year will mature with $544,000 maturity value. My rent, insurance, income taxes and other living expenses is $1,875 a month so I am still $1,000 a month ahead. I’m done with with working anymore.

Once I get my OAS, $700 a month by then I will have the same capital by my 20 year RRIF GIC runs out. Who knows, I might not need any of this money I might be dead by 81 years old.

#56 Nonplused on 12.02.19 at 7:44 pm

“Read the Clarity Act. No legal separation without approval from a majority of all governments. Don’t let the Wexit snakeoil salesguys spin you.” – Garth

Laws can be changed and if they extrajudicial they can be ignored. Having a law in place that allows Quebec to determine whether Alberta can separate is about as enforceable as the US’s new Hong Kong Human Rights Act. Or the “Till death do us part” bit once your wife announces her intent to divorce.

That said Wexit won’t happen. Trudeau will cave and renegotiate the transfer payment formula over the cries of blue bloody murder from Quebec. That will go along way to resolving what needs to be resolved. And it will be resolved. “Talk of an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta revenue agency and an Alberta police force” does mean “more overhead, cost”, but not “tax”. Billions of dollars are available to pay for it if Alberta cuts Ottawa off and it would repatriate a lot of desperately needed jobs. But it won’t happen it’s all just bargaining chips.

In fact, I don’t think Wexit would even get a 50+1 majority if it were put to referendum. UPC voters might vote in favor, but Liberal and NDP voters will not. I think that is why Kenney is proposing other measures and not outright separation. He knows separation won’t fly with enough of the voters. It is a dead issue. The transfer payments and CPP contributions, on the other hand, are not. I am not sure why Alberta needs it’s own police force but it might have to do with removing Ottawa’s ability to persecute Alberta taxpayers for sending their money to Edmonton rather than Ottawa. Basically, any edicts from Ottawa would be unenforceable unless they want to send in the army, and that won’t happen.

Without changes to the way revenues are collected and distributed, Canada is doomed as a long term project. Ontario and Quebec are old and retiring, Alberta and Saskatchewan and relatively younger. BC itself might not be able to remain a viable entity because there is a line straight down the middle of the province separating the blue and the orange. In terms of geography, the heart of Ontario is separated by a vast section of Canadian Shield from the prairie provinces to the west, who have more in common and more economic ties with the US prairies to the south than they do with eastern Canada.

Maybe Trump is working on a plan to buy Alberta. That is actually the most sensible option for everyone involved. Except BC. It would kind of strand BC. Of course I am joking about that, it would never happen because not only would Alberta have to vote decisively to separate, they would then have to vote decisively to petition to become a US state and the US would have to vote to accept, all 3 of which have zero possibility of happening. But really it makes the most sense.

I have only ever traveled to Quebec for work once, and that was to give a presentation that lasted 1 hour at a conference. I have however spent a large amount of time in the US on business. Alberta’s economic interests run north-south, not east-west. The only interest we have that runs east-west is the CFL. And most of those players come from the US too. But if Baltimore managed to win the Grey Cup once, the Stamps and Eskimos can probably stay in the CFL too.

#57 Stone on 12.02.19 at 7:44 pm

#45 Tom Grozny on 12.02.19 at 6:57 pm
“… ‘Montreal,’ a city of four million people where the median single-family house price is $355,000, thanks in large part to a legacy of political instability and wingnut sovereigntists..”

I thought renters in Montreal can apply for a tax refund of part of their rent on their tax returns. This means that Revenu Quebec can track landlord’s rental incomes easily. So landlords can’t avoid paying taxes on it and that changes the profitability of owning investment properties.

I thought this would explain most of the RE price difference, rather than political instability. Politics are unstable by definition anyway :)

———

That’s an excellent idea. That should be done across Canada.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 7:48 pm

@#46 Wrecks-it!

Is stupid.

Just ask the Brits…

#59 Stone on 12.02.19 at 7:51 pm

#47 AB Boxster on 12.02.19 at 7:08 pm
Oh I see.
So Alberta or any other province in Canada cannot separate, because the rest of Canada says it illegal to do so.

And Alberta cannot sell it’s energy products because the rest of Canada says it won’t let it, all the while they stuff their faces with energy imported from the rest of the world.

And when the climate change idiots decide to kill Alberta’s beef industry in order to deal with C02 cow farts, well golly her that will be just okeedokee.

And as the province becomes a have not province , on the scale of Canadian provincial patheticness, Albertans will rejoice that we have finally been put in our proper place in the confederation, by our government overlords and Marxist elites who despise those who actually create wealth.

And of course, the people of Alberta, some of the most independent, free thinking and government dispising citizens in the world will naturally just roll over and say “thank you sir. Can In have some more?”

You be dreaming in technicolor Mr. Turner.

———

Actually, you’re absolutely right. They won’t just roll over. They’ll bend over too.

Was that rude on my part? Sometimes, the comments section brings out the worse in me.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 7:54 pm

@#32 The Jag
“early arrivals found their first shelter in dugouts built into the coulees in southern Alberta to survive the ‘elements’. Wasn’t even called Alberta in those days…..”

++++

Ahhh those tougher than nails… sod busting, stubble jumping, gopher eaters…..a truly hardy lot.
Living in Rupert’s Land….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert%27s_Land

Today?
Albertans eat hard boiled eggs and drink their coffee black and dangle fake prairie oysters from the tow hitch of the truck……
Wrecks-it.
A great idea….until reality hits home.

#61 Sideshow Rob on 12.02.19 at 8:06 pm

The US had no legal path for separation from the British Empire either. It worked out for them.

#62 Amok on 12.02.19 at 8:07 pm

Alberta deserves everything it gets, doesn’t it?
Voters who make ill-informed choices deserve the ills that come with them, no?

When industries in Atlantic Canada’s started to decline, what did those fine Canadians do? They moved to where the work is. Doesn’t it make sense that maybe it’s time for Albertans to bite the bulletin, pick up and move to another province, where there is better job opportunities? Or?
Could someone please explain to me why Albertan Canadians have a god-given right to be prosperous and hand-fed… Asking for a friend.

#63 Sail away on 12.02.19 at 8:08 pm

#40 akashic record on 12.02.19 at 6:44 pm

US, India, former USSR states, Yugoslavia, just to name a few cases – none of them followed a constitutional script to break away. None of them was “legal”.

————————————-

So, to be clear, you’re pointing out either civil war or total country dissolution/border recreation as a solution? That’s bananas!

Let’s examine this:

70% of Albertans would immediately relocate to another province or country (because, let’s be honest, Alberta’s cold, and CPP/OAS accounts would still be valid elsewhere), and a very small militant group of remaining Albertans would slowly freeze in the dark while eating their cows and being absolutely ignored by everybody else, before capitulating as another winter approached and put their second consecutive Mexico winter vacation in jeopardy.

There would be no punitive sanctions, because… Canadians… and the country would welcome back the wayward ones with open arms and celebratory curling matches. Gordon Lightfoot would perform the ‘Albertan Rebellion Ballad’ to emotional Albertans during the Stampede.

Actually, now I’m in favour. Sometimes a fight is the best way to make a friend.

#64 Ed on 12.02.19 at 8:10 pm

Alberta never voted for NDP…we voted against the left shift that Stelmak and Redford forced on us.

Oh…and oil was $12/b not long ago…we make lots of money on $50 oil if we can ship to our buyers…you should know that.

#65 vanisle on 12.02.19 at 8:12 pm

I have a question.
What can we as a country sell? We must sell something in order to keep our competitive position on this planet, what is it?
ETF’s? Balanced portfolios? Stocks? Bonds? Derivatives? Shares?
Retail, forestry, fisheries, mining, agriculture, oil & gas, manufacturing are all gone for the foreseeable future.
What is going to drive our economy? Tourism, Government workers, Real estate, Fresh water, Alt energy, Wall\Bay Street?
We’re in trouble as Nation…You are blind if you have yet to notice this!
We need to relax the red tape, cut the rules and regulations, and get shit to market quickly and efficiently or we’re going die as a Nation. We need to sell things! Just as a store needs to sell things or they go bankrupt!
Been On this rock for 47 yrs, been through 3 recessions, and made it out.
I see good qualified tradesmen living in their cars because rent is so high on the Island.
This time IS different.
This time I’m scared.
We need 100% Government transparency at all levels. We as the tax payer need to see where every f#cking nickel is going.
Bottom line…We need to sell shit or we starve.
I love this Country…Don’t you?
I was going to write this all out in crayon, but it would have taken far too long!

#66 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 8:15 pm

#4 MF on 12.02.19 at 3:25 pm
#96 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 12:43 pm

“Canada already loses between 30-40% of all its immigrants within 10 years of showing up. You can’t expect these folks to stick around if they never get anywhere and keep getting pounded with new taxes.”

-100% wrong again.

Starting to get real worriesome too. One of our greatest posters on here has been losing some battles lately and seems to be drifting somewhere weird. Another person complaining about taxes? How lame. Could it be a result of exposure to some us VS them USA style propaganda?

I don’t know and I digress. This information was released in 2016:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/research/interprovincial-mobility-retention-inflow-landings-2008-2013.html
———-

Indeed MF, that link you posted does indeed show that Ontario’s retention of PR’s from **other Provinces** in Canada is 93.1%.

That’ll be great info to link up when someone is talking about interprovincial movements. You know, folks moving from one Province to another, and how long they stay there.

But, I’m not talking about interprovincial mobility, right MF?

I guess I’ll cease imploring you to educate yourself on the meanings of the words immigration, emigration, interprovincial and intraprovincial, because you’re obviously not interested. From here on in I’ll just state: “irrelevant info” whenever you’re hard at work refuting Canadian emigration numbers with stats about interprovincial mobility.

I’ll post a couple links for you to read, even though you won’t. It’ll be the last time I do.

Believe what you like.

“Wendy Cukier, founder, Diversity Institute in Management and Technology at Ryerson University, in a presentation, cites a study (Watt et al.,2008) that shows that 40 per cent of immigrants who entered Canada in the skilled worker or business class left Canada within their first 10 years.“

“A previous study by Statistics Canada indicated that one-third of male immigrants (aged 25 to 45 at the time of landing) left Canada within 20 years after arrival. More than half of those who left did so within the first year of arrival.”

https://canadianimmigrant.ca/living/community/why-some-immigrants-want-to-leave-canada

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/060301/dq060301b-eng.htm

Also:

“Another person complaining about taxes? How lame.“

I cannot conceive of how you could possibly be noticing this about me just now. Over 4 years straight of me harping non stop damn near every day about dodging taxes.

4 damn continuous years MF!

“Time to accept it and move on.”

Glady, once I get a relevant refutation from you. Hasn’t happened yet, and at this point; I don’t think it’s gonna.

#67 Dazed and CONfused on 12.02.19 at 8:31 pm

“…..Meanwhile Alberta voters have swung from majority Cons to majority NDP and now majority super-Cons in the last three elections……”

After 40 years of Alberta PC rule, incompetence, and exceptionally bad planning, a true definition of insanity: electing the same Alberta PC party over and over again and expecting a different result.

Alberta Advantage? Oh, pulllllllease….
To paraphrase Warren Buffet, “Only when the (oil) tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

#68 Joe Schmoe on 12.02.19 at 8:39 pm

Wexit is dumb. Jason K is dumb for thinking divisiveness will solve this. The East is dumb for thinking they don’t need O&G money at this point in time. JT is just dumb.

With all the dumb people hogging the microphone, how do the smart people even stand a chance?

It’s like trying to talk about inclusiveness at a Kid Rock concert.

#69 Flanneur on 12.02.19 at 8:44 pm

@55

GICS FOR 20 years? Why would you post that here?

#70 the ryguy on 12.02.19 at 8:51 pm

Could someone please explain to me why Albertan Canadians have a god-given right to be prosperous and hand-fed… Asking for a friend.
——————————

How stupid are you and your friend? Just look at the lifetime equalization payments in Canada…then try and say with a straight face that Alberta doesn’t have something to complain about.

#71 Sam on 12.02.19 at 8:57 pm

Abandoning his protectionism ?

Garth , he is sticking with tariffs to Brazil and Argentina

Hope like hell he doesnt get angry with Canada

#72 conan on 12.02.19 at 9:03 pm

The oil business has changed. It’s every producer for themselves now. The TMX is critical, and Harper should have built it, when oil was at 140.

Alberta has 25 years to sell it’s oil. Saudi Arabia has everyone licked on the cost of production. The USA is also in the game, with it’s cost of production advantage.

We live in interesting times.

#73 Stone on 12.02.19 at 9:07 pm

#65 vanisle on 12.02.19 at 8:12 pm
I have a question.
What can we as a country sell? We must sell something in order to keep our competitive position on this planet, what is it?
ETF’s? Balanced portfolios? Stocks? Bonds? Derivatives? Shares?
Retail, forestry, fisheries, mining, agriculture, oil & gas, manufacturing are all gone for the foreseeable future.
What is going to drive our economy? Tourism, Government workers, Real estate, Fresh water, Alt energy, Wall\Bay Street?
We’re in trouble as Nation…You are blind if you have yet to notice this!
We need to relax the red tape, cut the rules and regulations, and get shit to market quickly and efficiently or we’re going die as a Nation. We need to sell things! Just as a store needs to sell things or they go bankrupt!
Been On this rock for 47 yrs, been through 3 recessions, and made it out.
I see good qualified tradesmen living in their cars because rent is so high on the Island.
This time IS different.
This time I’m scared.
We need 100% Government transparency at all levels. We as the tax payer need to see where every f#cking nickel is going.
Bottom line…We need to sell shit or we starve.
I love this Country…Don’t you?
I was going to write this all out in crayon, but it would have taken far too long!

———

You do realize that you can literally sell shit, right! Every spring, people drive up to Walmart, Home Depot, etc., and buy cow and sheep manure for their gardens. Manure = shit. Literally!!!

Ok, on your point of how gouvernment spends money and a need for transparency, I completely agree.

For the rest though, get real. The way you wrote out your spiel is pretty much saying we should sell the clothes off our back and our firstborn children. A certain level of red tape is there to stop unlimited exploitation by unscrupulous people (aka company executives) who would sell us all into slavery if they could. You do realize most of those company execs are psychos. Literally! Trust me, they all have that same cold, calculating, empty look in their eyes, waiting for you to deliver that next great idea. The moment you do that and you don’t have anything new to provide, they’ll throw you into the pit to be torn apart by hungry underfed wild animals.

So yeah, on that point, I’m damn happy for the red tape that keeps you, me, this blog, Garth and Bandit safe for another day from those ravening psychos. And that red tale lets us buy regulated shit (manure) at Walmart and Home Depot. Thank you very much.

As for you psychos out there, you know who you are.

#74 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 9:08 pm

#37 Treasure Island CEO -34,045,324.88 Offshore on 12.02.19 at 6:40 pm

Now let’s compare that to fly over BC. Canoe, BC where that same house costs the same price, 600k, population of 2,000 people, a sawmill, which is laying off people because the forestry sector is screwed and you have to drive to another town to find a grocery store on par with a 7-11 convenience store like food…and don’t tell me the climate and weather is so much better in BC…it still freezes, snows and the front row seat to the forest fires every year is not any better than the back row seat in AB. And consider the potential career growth in a small little town. There is always the ability to sell trinkets on the street and the local farmers market I guess.

Canada has about 8 good economic centers with only two that generation x and down will be able to sustain living in based on cost benefit: Calgary and Montreal.
———

There are others, but no one’s heard of them. I live in a village of 500, and houses cost 120-600k. There are about maybe 20 crap jobs within our borders, pretty much everyone here works within a 1/2 hr drive away to a few nearby 20-50k cities. Almost no one makes 6 figs, getting 50k is good actually, outside of these there is the public sector with awesome pay, benefits and pensions per usual.

Limited time offer though. I shudder to think what small town Ontario will look like in 30 years. Cities used to try and lure big new manufacturing plants, now they try to lure tourists and retirees. Property taxes on residential is the new cash cow, half the main drag has for sale/lease signs in the shop windows. New subdivisions going up everywhere.

There may well be future business opportunities in servicing senior citizens out here though…

#75 the Jaguar on 12.02.19 at 9:12 pm

@
#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 7:54 pm
Ahhh those tougher than nails… sod busting, stubble jumping, gopher eaters…..a truly hardy lot.
Living in Rupert’s Land….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert%27s_Land

Today?
Albertans eat hard boiled eggs and drink their coffee black and dangle fake prairie oysters from the tow hitch of the truck……
Wrecks-it.
A great idea….until reality hits home.

And your point is what? They were sod busters. They did live under incredibly hard conditions. They were ‘truly hardy’. Are you critical of that? And what value do comments about dangling fake prairie oyster truck nuts add to the issue of Alberta alienation? What an incredibly naive and condescending comment about inhabitants of a province who have been the GDP engine in this country for many years. And no need to wag your finger on the subject of “reality”. This was acknowledged in my comments.
You are just a ‘serial poster’. A review of the daily comments supports this. Lots of quantity, not so much quality.

#76 Nonplused on 12.02.19 at 9:13 pm

#24 45north

The problem with peak oil is that it is not so simple. Energy is the life-blood of the economy, and a scarcity of oil will create only create higher prices until the point where the economy can no longer afford the oil. Then at that point the economy could collapse faster than oil production.

Energy leads economic activity, not the other way around.

Check out this site for many well thought out discussions of the issue:

https://ourfiniteworld.com/

When the economic collapse from which we will never recover comes, it won’t be because of the debt (although that is what it will look like). It will be because the windmills and shale oil just wasn’t worth it. Sure they work, but the economic return just isn’t there. And it can’t be. And it’s not money, which isn’t real, it’s physics, which is.

When you can’t earn enough money to gas up your car, you walk.

#77 not so liquid in alberta on 12.02.19 at 9:19 pm

@ Apostle on 12.02.19 at 3:23 pm
The first and major step would be for all Albertans to stop paying federal tax and remit it to the province instead.

=====================================

And just how in hell do you propose this happen??

#78 Dragonslayer on 12.02.19 at 9:22 pm

Sideshow Rob #61

The US South didn’t have have a legal path for separation from the North either. Didn’t work out so well for them did it?

#79 BobbyB on 12.02.19 at 9:30 pm

But Garth, Calgary is recovering! Minto says so it must be true.. why else would they charge you the low low price of only double the current going condo rates?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/140onpRFd4J8jVOKDIoss5UVC-CXVMnxK/view?usp=drive_web

#80 SimplyPut7 on 12.02.19 at 9:34 pm

#4 MF on 12.02.19 at 3:25 pm
#66 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 8:15 pm

MF – IHCTD9 is right and you are wrong.

First, you don’t just become a permanent resident when you first come to Canada.

You can come to Canada in many different ways, which is not included in your link as most non-citizens have left the country by the time they get the opportunity to become a permanent resident. You can work, study, visit, travel through or live permanently in Canada.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/come-canada-tool.html

One of the big moneymakers for Canada is the international student program. There were more than 350,000 international students were enrolled in schools across Canada at the end of 2015.
https://vancouversun.com/feature/how-international-students-are-filling-funding-shortfalls/chapter-4

There were over 572,000 international students in Canada at the end of 2018. Only 54,000 international students obtained permanent resident status in Canada in 2018.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-ottawa-rejecting-more-and-more-study-visa-applicants

Most of these students do not get work permits or become Canadian citizens, but the government does not explicitly state that in simple English so that students – many of whom have to pay their full tuition year upfront now, can decide if they want to get an education in Canada or another country where they are more like to become citizens and better their lives for themselves and their family.

Another way into Canada is to become a temporary worker.
Of the 264,000 temporary foreign workers first admitted to Canada from 1995 to 1999, 13% (or 35,000) were still in Canada five years after their initial arrival. This was the case for 37% (or 187,000) of the approximately 500,000 temporary foreign workers first admitted to Canada from 2005 to 2009. The same pattern was evident 10 years after arrival among earlier cohorts. Specifically, 11% of temporary foreign workers first admitted to Canada from 1995 to 1999 and 18% of those first admitted from 2000 to 2004 were still in Canada 10 years after their initial arrival in Canada.

Almost 90% of temporary foreign workers [that is, of the 11% and 18%] who were still in Canada after 10 years had obtained permanent resident status, having made the transition from temporary foreign worker to landed immigrant.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180129/dq180129b-eng.htm

After going through all of these hoops, without provincial health care or tax-payer subsidized post-secondary tuition. The few who are not completely sick of Canada and their false promises of easy citizenship – 90% of the smallest group left become permanent residents (the updated word for landed immigrant).

And, a permanent resident is still not a Canadian citizen.

It would be nice if the federal government just told the truth, from the moment a person comes into the country that is not here for business or pleasure, how many of them become permanent residents (non-citizen) and how many become Canadian citizens; and what is the retention rate over 5, 10, 25 and 50 years of these people. This would lead to better planning of resources and save the time and energy of individuals who may have a chance of a better future in the US, EU, UK or Australia.

#81 MF on 12.02.19 at 9:54 pm

#80 SimplyPut7 on 12.02.19 at 9:34 pm

Found the guy who hates Canada.

In his original post yesterday, IH made a claim that “80% of immigrants get fed up of Canada due to taxes and lack of opportunity” and leave.

I posted data that clearly shows of those who intended to stay, and become permanent residents (which literally used to be called landed immigrant), 90+ were still here years later.

An international student is not an immigrant. Nor is a temporary worker. Before you Launched into your literal diatribe you forgot to define immigrant…and that’s where you fail.

What we now have on this site is a collection of losers and complainers. Maybe it was always so?

It really is a pathetic blog.

MF

#82 MF on 12.02.19 at 10:00 pm

#80 SimplyPut7 on 12.02.19 at 9:34 pm

Oh, and with regards to your last point, the UK and the EU don’t really have a future. If we use the metric put forth in this discussion (taxes, regulation and debt) than these places are in for a lot worse. The is notwithstanding the failed social situation there, and powder keg the EU is.

Ditto the US, although it is in far better shape than the EU or the UK. That 21 soon to be 22 trillion debt will come back to bite soon though. The aussies are similar to us.

MF

#83 To Hell with Alberta on 12.02.19 at 10:02 pm

Albertans and their stupid conservative governments deserve every stab of pain they get.

For over forty years, they have bungled the potential of the Heritage Fund.

Norway turned theirs into a TRILLION DOLLAR ASSET!

For Albertans and their Conservative leaders, their tiny remnant of a fund today is their badge of dishonour.

Norway’s citizens will benefit forever from their wise savings, putting society first ahead of corporations. They now invest it away from the oil and gas industry as well.

Albertans’ historic bending over to right wing capitalist impulses has robbed them of their wealth and helped threaten the planet with climate extinction.

You crybabies are disgusting and an embarrassment to Canada.

You should feel grateful that the rest of us even allow you to stay in our country.

Your jobs will soon disappear. Your homes will be worth squat.

Norway’s investment was like a wise client of Turner Investments, with a long term, balanced approach.

Alberta acted like a gambling fool buying condos at peak market or throwing money at bitcoin.

You wanna leave, whiners?

THERE’S THE DOOR !!!

#84 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.02.19 at 10:05 pm

Garth you are much to negative about Alberta freedom. A free Alberta would not be sending a net of $20 billion a year to Ottawa that it does not get back. A free Alberta could become a tax haven in North America and attract a lot of investment from people who want to avoid taxes. We are only a few hours flight from Wall Street.

Most importantly a free Alberta would actually be democratic. We would no longer be subjected to a hostile regime selected by anti oil voters in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. We would also not be subjected to the dictates of a undemocratic leftist supreme court.

It is time to free Alberta!

#85 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 10:15 pm

#81 MF on 12.02.19 at 9:54 pm

In his original post yesterday, IH made a claim that “80% of immigrants get fed up of Canada due to taxes and lack of opportunity” and leave.
——-

I did?

I thought I said:

“Canada already loses between 30-40% of all its immigrants within 10 years of showing up”

That’s 30 to 40%, not 30 PLUS 40%.

Your link showed permanent residents who moved from one Province to another Province and how long they stayed in said Province…

…Ahhh, nevermind.

#86 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 10:19 pm

#83 To Hell with Alberta on 12.02.19 at 10:02 pm

Albertans and their stupid conservative governments deserve every stab of pain they get. [Etc…]
——

Good Grief!

Go to LCBO immediately!

#87 Re-Cowtown on 12.02.19 at 10:19 pm

Eastern Canadians fail to understand that Quebec uses separtion to wheedle a better deal out of Canada and has no real intention in leaving, and that it has no place else to go.

The dangerous part is that the West does have someplace else to go and issues like the Carbon Tax are threatening to split up the country.

The Carbon Tax is such a divisive issue, pitting region against region in a pitiful and disgusting way. The Carbon Tax needs to come off the table.

By that I mean that its OK to keep it, nationally, but provinces such as Quebec who enjoy a massive benefit on carbon emissions based solely on their geography should equalize their fortunate status with the rest of Canada. Alberta has shared it’s fortune of geography in having most of Canada’s oil resources. Maybe it’s time for all provinces to share more, not less?

It’s time for a Carbon Equalization Program. Something like that would go a long way to settling Alberta down. Quebec equalizes carbon credits with Alberta so Alberta can continue to fund Quebec’s social programs.

That would work; seriously, it would.

#88 Dutchy on 12.02.19 at 10:21 pm

I,m confused. Remembering the NEP of T1 (1980-1985)

Does not Alberta have complete control over their energy resources now?
Which their Premier Lougheed fought so hard for at the time.

And now nothing but crying: “pig in a poke”

#89 akashic record on 12.02.19 at 10:27 pm

#63 Sail away on 12.02.19 at 8:08 pm

#40 akashic record on 12.02.19 at 6:44 pm

US, India, former USSR states, Yugoslavia, just to name a few cases – none of them followed a constitutional script to break away. None of them was “legal”.

————————————-

So, to be clear, you’re pointing out either civil war or total country dissolution/border recreation as a solution? That’s bananas!

Some of them was with civil war, many of them (Baltic republics, Ukraine, etc. of former USSR, split of Czechoslovakia) were totally peaceful.

The point is, even the peaceful ones didn’t follow some constitutional pretext.

#90 Sail Away on 12.02.19 at 10:35 pm

#73 Stone on 12.02.19 at 9:07 pm

Trust me, [company execs] all have that same cold, calculating, empty look in their eyes, waiting for you to deliver that next great idea.

The moment you do that and you don’t have anything new to provide, they’ll throw you into the pit to be torn apart by hungry underfed wild animals.

As for you psychos out there, you know who you are.

———————————————

So… spit out this great idea you speak of. Time’s short and the wolves are hungry.

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 10:41 pm

@#75 The jagged edge
“You are just a ‘serial poster’. A review of the daily comments supports this. Lots of quantity, not so much quality.”
++++

My my.
I was thinking the same thing…

Ironically.

I admired your descendant’s struggles.

Let me guess….they immigrated from Europe?
Like mine?
Who immigrated 100 years before your “stubble jumpers”?

Whatever.

Life was hard.
They survived.
Canada was the result…
Butts for how much longer?

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 10:44 pm

@#83 To H… E… Doublehockeystix with Alberta
“For over forty years, they have bungled the potential of the Heritage Fund.
Norway turned theirs into a TRILLION DOLLAR ASSET!”

+++++

Now now.
No need to rub sea salt in the wound…
:)

#93 Rargary on 12.02.19 at 10:51 pm

There will be no Wexit. Most of us Albertans know it’s just a threat. And for those who say Albertans deserve Kenney crap cuz we haven’t learned, etc. GROW UP! That’s like saying Ontarians deserve Ford as you voted him in. The divisiveness with some on here is pathetic!

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 10:52 pm

@#69 Flanneur
“GICS FOR 20 years? Why would you post that here?

$$$$$$$$

I was thinking the exact same thing but I was busy with the “stubble jumper”….. my apologise.

#95 CalgaryGuy on 12.02.19 at 10:53 pm

“But Alberta isn’t going anywhere…. There is no legal path out. No exit is possible. No prime minister could grant one. Nor should any thinking cowboy want it.”

We don’t need your permission. We don’t care what nine judicial activists in red dresses have to say about it. We don’t require acquiescence from any prime minister. If we decide to leave, who cares what you people think? Go ahead, make us stay.

All hat, no cattle. – Garth

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 11:00 pm

@#65 vanisle

Total agreement.

Too much red tape.
Too many bureaucrats.
And when Red Seal tradesmen are working AND living out of their cars….
There is something seriously wrong…

But our politically correct “leaders” will save us…

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 11:01 pm

I think Albertans should bide their time. I’m not convinced yet that US fracking will last forever. The reserves are huge, but so is the industry debt – and then there are the environmentalists. The US Shale industry is never more than a new loon in the White House away from a pile of trouble.

Use T2’s fresh new understanding that something has to get done for the West to stack the deck. Get that pipe built, global crude consumption is still going up. Saudi Arabia is well into draining the Ghawar, 2021 marks the 70th year of pumping it. The water cut today is near 50%, so they’re definitely less than 50% OOIP, with who really knows what recoverable. They’re getting down to the short strokes.

Talking about leaving is fun, but not a good plan. Better to get prepped for the decades to come, it’s not going to stay this cheap forever.

#98 Robert Ash on 12.02.19 at 11:09 pm

Well as a recent Ex Pat of Alberta, I am quite disappointed in the Comments. From my View, I find it very difficult to understand, how any or all Governments, can restrict or retard, the Significant ( Largest Export) Revenue, from any of our Provinces.. It is important to not just comment on Alberta, because, this demonstrates, to me, that those focusing on Alberta, do not whether conveniently or not, recognise that the Problem, is in Three Western Provinces… These provinces, are also very negatively impacted by Policies, restricting Resource Development. They include all of Saskatchewan, all of Alberta, and most of British Columbia. The Voting base in BC, is obviously dominated, by the Metro Vancouver and Victoria areas, but the Political strength, in this area is quite weak… Just one seat or so…Green/NDP alliance. Most Folks, from the Northern areas of BC, and the Interior, want Pipelines, and Forrestry, and Mining, etc… Their Lives as they exist today depend on those Industries.. and they are geting Hammered by Trump Policies, and of course Eastern Canadian Metro voters, as well… So there is a serious Disconnect… While a lot of the Stability in the three regions, cited above are firmly supported on a long term basis by the Agricultural Sector.. If you talk to Farmers, who are Base Case Environmentalists.. They don’t quite get the Climate Change narrative, or at minimum are sceptical.. Most burn Logs, for Winter Heat… in many regions…
My gripe is that this whole mess is Self Destructive, as evidenced by the comments.. it is really sad to me, to see, such a waste of Productivity.. We have great resources, but our Leaders today are certainly out of favor with Oil and Gas… and this is also exacerbated, by the Hydro Producing Provinces, like Quebec and BC… the CC Science is now being criticized…and frankly should be reviewed from a Canadian Scientific perspective, not a Political one…
If you read, the article by Rex Murphy listed above this article Summarizes, a lot of the Preceptions, and the reaction to being called Whiners.. but the comments, seem factual to me, as hard as this is to be believed, from a common sense point of view…
I do believe that there could easily be a Movement, of Residents, coverning a vast majority of the Geography, from Sask, to that tiny Metro Center, called Vancouver… and if Democracy is still prevalent, who would stop the Folks, from thier own self determination.
All these areas are not as Land Locked as one thinks… There are Options, for Movement of Tankers trough the Northern Territorial Shipping routes, with the use of Nuclear Powered Ice Breakers… also in the period of May to October, a lot shipping, to build Refineries, in Alaska, has been transported via the Mackenzie Delta, the Badami Refinery in Alaska, was a Project I worked on… Truck load after Truck load, trans shipped to Barges, destined for ALaska..
Once Alberta and Sask, seperated, then BC would follow, as there would be referendums, and here is another sad consideration, most BC folks, are percentage wise, in Favor of the Pipelines, since they realise, that all their Energy Interests, are Western Based…
Just imagine how Popular Horgan, Butts, Trudeau, Mckeena, Lagarde would be if the Transport of Energy is curtailed for one week… Think about that… Carnage.. and If I were Kenny I would just quietly orchastrate this eventuality… Show me the money …Canada whether the Environmental Lobby likes it or not… still runs, on Fossil fuels.. it is the abject denial of this fact that I find Perplexing.. Sad that we are inflicting wounds on ourselves, while China and the USA, consider their own self interests entirely.. Also the Apathethic Western Canadian, is changing..their Perspective.

#99 Ustabe on 12.02.19 at 11:11 pm

Hey Everybody!

Its the happiest time of year. No?

Why all the animus?

Lets hold up on this Alberta stuff, the immigrant’s place of residence, etc. Lets talk about Prince Andrew instead!

OK, I’ll start the new topic:

I don’t think Prince Andrew killed himself.

Discuss.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.19 at 11:13 pm

@#73 Sharon stone
“As for you psychos out there, you know who you are.”
+++++

Ummmm.
Could you put the ice pick down?
Pleeeeese?

#101 SimplyPut7 on 12.02.19 at 11:20 pm

#81 MF on 12.02.19 at 9:54 pm
#82 MF on 12.02.19 at 10:00 pm

Canada’s definition of immigration needs to be updated to reflect how it really works and not how the federal government thinks it should work in principle.

If you have international students studying for years and work no more than 20 hours a week (in theory) to support themselves as well as temporary foreign programs, temporary visas, and all the other ways non-citizens stay in Canada to work legally or illegally for years.

Shouldn’t this be properly accounted for in our statcan data? Wouldn’t the number of immigrants coming to Canada increase when you include those who intended to stay even with “temporary” visas, work permits or study programs and then got “fed up” and left?

More importantly, if you have a certain amount of invited immigrants becoming permanent residents and that retention number decreases by year 10, while now including temporary workers and students who have become permanent residents, where did those immigrants go? That retention number doesn’t seem to reflect the number of invited immigrants missing when you add the other temporary program users to the permanent resident statistic.

I personally have known immigrants that have left Canada for more money in the US, better work-life balance in the UK (with EU passport), study and live in Australia to go to medical school or go back to their home country as they realize the grass was not greener in Canada (they missed their connection to family and traditions that are not expressed widely in Canada).

Also, the EU and the UK are not going to fall apart any time soon. They will agree to disagree and move on with their lives peacefully.

#102 IHCTD9 on 12.02.19 at 11:24 pm

Everyone is grumpy over this Wexit thing. So here is a joke for city slickers, feminists, and dog owners to cheer everyone up:

So a young man leaves the city to spend time with his Grandfather on the trap line. While setting the table for supper he noticed that the dishes aren’t very clean, the Grandfather sees the boys face and says:

“My boy I am an old man and I lost your Grandmother years ago. I have very little of the modern comforts and that is as clean as cold water make the dishes.”

So after about a week he is playing with one of the dogs that his Grandfather allows in the cabin. The boy takes a real shine to the dog and asks:

“This is such a great dog, what is his name?”

The Grandfather replies:

“Why, that is Cold Water!”

#103 DON on 12.03.19 at 12:02 am

They held a Wexit Rally in Prince George a couple of weeks back. Enough showed up to set up a BBQ. A handful of people showed up.

Alberta has two problems and one of them is Jason Kenney. The other is an economic downturn even if the Oil makes it to tide water. Russia just opened up gas pipeline to China. Back to Kenney and his 6000 – 7000 job cuts. Those people buy stuff, like houses, cars etc. Alberta got their own Christy Clark/Doug Ford. The federal conservative party is done. |Time to rebuild.

Trump is going after Brazil and Venezuela with tariffs as they are both picking up the slack and selling soybeans to China. China has been slowly side stepping the US.

@ Tater: you provided IHCT with evidence of past posts and still nada nothing…all well you tried.

@MF keep at it.

@Alberta – First Nations land claims may get in the way of separation. I don’t recall them ever surrendering.

@Garth – lots of nuttiness lately eh!

#104 AB Boxster on 12.03.19 at 12:08 am

#55 Dan Anise on 12.02.19 at 7:43 pm

My $425,000 LRIF lasts 20 years and brings in $27,000 a year

———————
So if you have 50% of the LRIf in a 20 year GIC and 50% in 10 year compound GICs and each pays 2.5% , then how is this LRIF throwing off $27 k every year?
And you expect it to grow to 544k n 10 years?

27k on 425k means 6.3% returns.
2.5% returns on 425k equals $10,615.

#105 DON on 12.03.19 at 12:12 am

“A sperm whale that stranded and then died on a beach in Scotland had a ball of trash in its stomach heavier than most human beings.

The nets, bundles of rope, plastic cups, bags, gloves, packing straps and tubing totalled about 100 kilograms, the Scottish Marine Animal Strandings Scheme reported on its Facebook page Sunday. That’s quite a bit more than the average human mass of 62 kilograms.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/whale-plastic-100kg-1.5381205

Maybe I still have to rely on gasoline for my automobile (next car electric) for now, but I certainly can cut down of some if not all that other junk.

As for Lithium batteries…gotta wonder why there was a take over in Bolivia – someone has been wanting to mine those lakes for quite some time. Now I don’t think the benefits will be going to the locals.

#106 diharv on 12.03.19 at 12:35 am

#62 Amok on 12.02.19 at 8:07 pm
Alberta deserves everything it gets, doesn’t it?
Voters who make ill-informed choices deserve the ills that come with them, no?

When industries in Atlantic Canada’s started to decline, what did those fine Canadians do? They moved to where the work is. Doesn’t it make sense that maybe it’s time for Albertans to bite the bulletin, pick up and move to another province, where there is better job opportunities? Or?
Could someone please explain to me why Albertan Canadians have a god-given right to be prosperous and hand-fed… Asking for a friend.

Have your friend ask Quebec, or maybe that’s who your friend is. Idiot.

#107 Ed on 12.03.19 at 1:01 am

Hmm…lets see …
1. Norway is a country, Alberta is a province
2. Norway has pipelines running to all their coastlines,Alberta has 1/3 of one 50 yeasr old and unable to build more
3. Norway mandates only Norwegian oil to be burned in their country…Alberta can’t compete with Saudi Arabia & Nigeria on the East Coast
4.Norway has a large fund…Alberta paid for most of Quebec’s infrastructure
etc etc

#108 canuck on 12.03.19 at 1:23 am

Garth, I appreciate you showing your true colours today. Truly, you’re an easterner that is out of touch with western Canadians. You just don’t get it. There is a large majority of people from Alberta and Saskatchewan who feel there is nothing to lose by separating. These two provinces provide 75% of beef production in this country. Same goes for grains. We have more than enough water, oil, coal and natural gas. No worries about going hungry or cold. You can keep your Quebec milk and corn… and your Ontario tobacco. We don’t need it.

I don’t see the prairies separating but I’m ok with having our own police, Pension plan and revenue dept. They can be funded by the 20 billion we don’t send to Ottawa anymore.

#109 fishman on 12.03.19 at 1:35 am

You’ll know the Wexiteers are getting serious when they go silent & don’t answer the phone. Because they’ve thrown them away. Cell phones are the kiss of death. They’ll be using digital VHF’s, self programable for up to a dozen phones. Range about 30 miles. $600 bucks. We had old analogue phones that scrambled frequencies but these new digital ones way better & almost uncrackable. Also pay attention if they are switching to the dark web. Thats where you’ll find the untraceable blogs & unmentionable things . These are two leading indicators. The cowboys are getting ready for some midnight runs.
Jaguar, nobody’s ever asked me for a spin out there to calm their nerves. Your the first. Some, I suppose, come for the romantic experience but that doesn’t last long.

#110 Jenny Wang on 12.03.19 at 3:13 am

Garth, you’re a federalist, and good for you. Not all of us share that romantic motion, especially as Trudeau’s backers are hell bent on destroying Canada, and that’s obviously. A Western Republic can’t make it? Seriously? Norway has the same population as Alberta and derives it’s revenue from energy and resource extraction and management.

You said it yourself, because Liberals will fight our seperation, ” we’ ll have to shoot our way out”, your words. That will happen, that is a welcome option. Barricades are fine with me, a mountain of burning tires to stop the few fanatical RCMP who’ll show up to shoot at us, no problem.

There are many international of examples of countries negotiating marine access. Crimea is a recent success. Alberta and partners will either push through Northern BC or negotiate towards Hudson’s Bay. The north is the most viable option.

Threats that land claims first have to get settled is nonsense. Those tactics are just bar stool talk. We don’t recognize any treaties signed by Canada, British or French. All people are welcome to join or leave. Norway has a trillion dollars national fund. Everyone involved agrees that Alberta alone could create the same safe social conditions as Norway. Partners like Saskatchewan and Manitoba will make our Republic a global commodity super power over night.

The nail in Canadas coffin is the diabolical cabal of Trudeau, Soros and EU/UN ideologues. The lickspittke like Hussen, McKenna and Freeland will fail immediately once the American carpet baggers see that we called their bluff.

See you on the front lines, if you want to breath real freedom from globalist manure. And, saying that, even the EU has announced that the globalist policies have failed. Why is Canada still the target if failed experimentation?

#111 Steven Rowlandson on 12.03.19 at 4:10 am

DELETED

#112 H.Peter on 12.03.19 at 4:10 am

Ah. How I miss YYC.
Left in 2011. Cashed out on land and bought in Europe. Lost some $$ in France, now trying to make it up in another social democratic country. Despite what we read in the papers, Europe is more levelheaded anyone in North America. Some troubles, yes, but nothing that cannot be handled.

Come on over, we need more entrepreneurs.

#113 Parksville senior on 12.03.19 at 4:29 am

Albertans hollering for Wexit is at least a change from their regular lament of “Oh Lord, let there be another oil boom and I promise that I won’t piss it away this time”.

But then they have progressed to am entirely different level of stupidity by electing Jason Kenny who is only outdone in this department by the Tangrine turd. Imagine complaining to the rest of Canadians how your tax revenues are about to drop while simultaneously bragging about giving Albertans their biggest tax cut in history. No wonder Jason is so big on religious schools-he doesn’t want anyone to be smarter than him!
But Garth, I would have expected you to have commented on the benefit of a balanced investment portfolio especially with Danielle (with the wheels) touting the benefit of an Alberta Pension Plan that could invest in the oil sector.
Evidently stupidity is widely spread throughout the UCP!

#114 Jenny Wang on 12.03.19 at 6:22 am

https://images.app.goo.gl/4w69RTFipSa1aps67

Alberta in Glory. Blood and Fire Brothers.

You forgot the regret and retreat. – Garth

#115 Always Lurking on 12.03.19 at 7:50 am

It’s easy to see the benefits to Canada of Alberta remaining, but what are the benefits to Alberta besides abiding the hassle of leaving? What exactly does Alberta get from Canada besides a big fat bill, snarkiness, and a kick while it’s down. I see Alberta’s skies brighter (or at least not more dark) leaving.

The delusion and ignorance here is breathtaking. No currency. No central bank. No military. No border controls. No RRSPs, TRFAs, RESPs, CPP, OAS, health care transfers, postal service and not enough population to sustain replacements without punitive new taxes, all while seeing multinationals flee and employment plummet along with real estate values and personal net worth. Plus you get to take your share of the national debt. Meanwhile the US would never, ever consider annexation. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. – Garth

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.19 at 8:15 am

Alberta Wrecksit fantasies aside.

Would the last NHL coach who didnt say something hurtful to a player a decade or two ago please turn out the lights when they leave?

#117 Dharma Bum on 12.03.19 at 8:18 am

Don’t let the Wexit snakeoil salesguys spin you. – Garth
——————————————————————–

This separation crap never works.

It’s always misguided anger and frustration that drive separation movements, but there are no practical ways to actually implement it.

Better for those that want separation to live out their fantasies in their own heads and dream on.

Get over it.

#118 Phylis on 12.03.19 at 8:18 am

#80 SimplyPut7 on 12.02.19 at 9:34 pm Windsor is also an interesting stepping stone for many since about the mid 90’s.

#119 Gravy Train on 12.03.19 at 8:19 am

#104 DON on 12.03.19 at 12:12 am
“[…] Maybe I still have to rely on gasoline for my automobile (next car electric) for now, but I certainly can cut down on some if not all that other junk.[…]” Did you just say you’re trying to become an environmentalist? Don’t worry: I won’t tell any of the other ‘deplorables’ here in the steerage section. It’s our little secret. Oh, and did you hear that Trump’s now selling specialty plastic straws? He’s such a card! :)

#120 DM in C on 12.03.19 at 9:07 am

We are in Calgary, and sold in early 2018, before things fell out in our suburb. Currently renting and gassed up.

If this carpetbagger Kenney pulls the trigger on an Alberta Pension Plan, we’re outta here. I will work remotely from anywhere but AB, and I know half a dozen who will do the same.

#121 James on 12.03.19 at 9:15 am

#84 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 12.02.19 at 10:05 pm

Garth you are much to negative about Alberta freedom. A free Alberta would not be sending a net of $20 billion a year to Ottawa that it does not get back. A free Alberta could become a tax haven in North America and attract a lot of investment from people who want to avoid taxes. We are only a few hours flight from Wall Street.

Most importantly a free Alberta would actually be democratic. We would no longer be subjected to a hostile regime selected by anti oil voters in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. We would also not be subjected to the dictates of a undemocratic leftist supreme court.

It is time to free Alberta
_____________________________________________
Peter it is talked about everywhere, “lets separate”. As Garth pointed out they tried that in the USA at the Montgomery Convention in February 1861. By 1863 a full-fledged civil war was at hand and at the end 1.4 million people died both soldiers, slaves and civilians. At the beginning of the war the government debt was $64.8 million. Once the war began, debt grew quickly. The financial cost of the war was significant, totaling an estimated $5.2 billion on the North side only. Now with that little history lesson aside let’s not fool ourselves that an attempted separation would be far more costly than the gains. Alberta is also a landlocked province and has no easy way in or out without crossing other provinces. What is needed is for Ottawa to keep in mind that Alberta is an important part of Canada and that no part is less important. Together we are strong divided we fall. That is what our stupefied idiot Prime Minister needs to learn, which is surprising as he was a teacher and should know this. I live in Toronto and would never want to see Alberta partitioned off it is akin to “Cutting off the nose to spite the face”. What we need is to provide an even playing field for all provinces.

#122 Glenn on 12.03.19 at 9:21 am

“But Alberta isn’t going anywhere. Just like Quebec. And Jason Kenney, the current premier, is a fool if he continues to gently fan the flames of pissed-offedness in his realm.”

Let’s be clear about one thing Garth. Kenney isn’t fanning the flames of ‘pissed-offedness’. We were already angry and don’t need a politician to tell us when we’re being treated badly.

According to your flip and shallow analysis, you think we should just take it and do nothing and then you make comparisons to Brexit but based on what I’ve read, I don’t really think you have a sound grasp of Brexit or the EU. The EU is a disaster waiting to happen and Brexit may very well seem prescient a few years from now but it’s apples and oranges compared to AB. vs Canada.

‘Then you go onto Talk of an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta revenue agency and an Alberta police force – all approved by the governing party on the weekend – means more overhead, cost, tax and aggrandizement for charlatan leaders.’

Charlatan leaders? Like Trudeau, Singh and May who would all throw Alberta under the bus to appease the far-left minority?

Taking control of our pension and taxation is designed to head off separation and frankly, it seems like the best option out of nothing but bad options but I’m all for it if it loosens Ottawa’s control over us.

Please spare us your eastern condescension.

It’s not East vs West. It’s rationality vs emotion. Wexit is a disaster, nose to tail. – Garth

#123 Sail Away on 12.03.19 at 9:47 am

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.19 at 8:15 am
Alberta Wrecksit fantasies aside.

Would the last NHL coach who didnt say something hurtful to a player a decade or two ago please turn out the lights when they leave?

———————————–

First they came for Don Cherry, and I didn’t say anything…

#124 Justin S on 12.03.19 at 10:01 am

Daily reader, but I rarely comment. I do like to comment every now and then to thank Garth for the awesome blog and awesome advice.

So thank you Garth! It is much appreciated.

#125 Ferdinand McMillan on 12.03.19 at 10:21 am

Garth you talk about an Alberta impoverished and depressed. Excuse me? No more ridiculous propaganda from the CBC, no more Canada Post and the thousand radical unions that suck blood from every pore. We’ll sell a few barrels of oil and pave the streets with gold. Is Norway impoverished? The charlatans are the eastern socialists and liberal thieves. Someone said we’ll have to shoulder “our share” of Trudeau’s debt. What a laugh. We’ll do nothing of the kind. My suggestion is to hire wall builders and cut all communication off with Trudeau -land altogether.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.19 at 10:27 am

Soooo.
After Alberta separates and the next time there is a meltdown in the price of oil and Albertastan’s economy drops to the bottom of the outhouse…..

Canada wont have to give them any more bail out money right?

https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN1Y61QQ

#127 Blog Bunny on 12.03.19 at 10:30 am

DELETED

#128 Quintelian on 12.03.19 at 10:53 am

“send the feds into a tailspin, blow up the Conservative party and send a shudder through the national economy.”

Sometimes you have to take the bad with the good. If the current conservative party destroys itself, Alberta might have the chance it deserves to enter the 21st century. But again, Albertans will have to mature politically which is an evolutionary process and somewhat uncomfortable.

A moderate centre party in government, if successful, could possibly put the buffoons like Kenny and Scheer in the political penalty box for good. Alberta might then be led out of the backwoods; it has the people with talent and work ethic, but for too long the people’s trusting nature has been hijacked by unscrupulous politicians who know how to manipulate and create divisions for their own selfish reasons.
All I heard last election was:

“ if you hate the Liberals vote for us”.

Sorry Cons, that is not good enough.

#129 Brett in Calgary on 12.03.19 at 10:53 am

We do not live in unique times. I have an uncle who balked at gun control (admittedly it doesn’t work) and said “what would Ottawa do if all us farmers stood up with our guns”? I was thinking to myself… fly a drone over and drop a small bomb on you dumb asses from 20,000 feet up. These cowboy heroics might feel good, but will accomplish nothing. Wexit will not happen. Have to find another way.

#130 Lizard Man on 12.03.19 at 10:58 am

Falling prices are huge in Vancouver.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/five-more-metro-vancouver-homeowners-hosed-in-a-falling-market

Yuge !

#131 AB Boxster on 12.03.19 at 11:05 am


The delusion and ignorance here is breathtaking. No currency. No central bank. No military. No border controls. No RRSPs, TRFAs, RESPs, CPP, OAS, health care transfers, postal service and not enough population to sustain replacements without punitive new taxes, all while seeing multinationals flee and employment plummet along with real estate values and personal net worth. Plus you get to take your share of the national debt. Meanwhile the US would never, ever consider annexation. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. – Garth

——————
Well those are all very ‘scary’ issues you bring up.
But perhaps the delusion is yours Garth.

What you really fail to understand Garth is the western Canadians are far more aligned with American sense of independence, entrepreneurship and can do attitude.

Alberta has been blessed land and resources,definitely. But it is the strength of its people and entrepreneurs that have actually developed the resources through ingenuity, risk taking and hard work.
(And no, none of it was funded by Quebec)

Much of this success was achieved despite the obvious anti-western policies put in place by the Canadian federal government. ( Think punishing Crow Rate, forced selling of grain to the Canada Wheat Board, NEP of 1980s)

Today, while you eastern Canadians deceive yourselves into believing that Canada will solve climate change , the high price of housing, or the pathetic wage growth of Canada, by taxing more, Albertan’s believe that developing resources that are demanded by the world (our farming industries, forestry industries, energy industries, IT industries) and the accompanying great jobs that come with these industries, is the way to move forward.

And of course, the average income levels in Alberta are massively higher than in any other province, because of this.

Do you not wonder why the average income level in most Canadian provinces (other than AB) is lower than average income levels than even the poorest states in the US?

I mean seriously. Had the oil sands been situated in Quebec or Ontario do you really believe that they would have been developed to become one of the biggest economic drivers for Canada and in fact the world?

So, the factor you wrongly discount, is the nature of the people in this province.

The people in this province have built this province from a rural backwater to a powerhouse of a province that produces the best agricultural products in the world (without forced supply management I might add) the best energy in the world, and the best educated people in Canada with the youngest population.

And it was done using the best environmental and land management practices in the world.
All contributing to the most successful province in Confederation.

(You know, the province that the federal government is trying to bankrupt with their absurd policies, all with the approval of eastern Canada.)

The success of Alberta was not accomplished by federal transfers, or federal investment, or federal taxation, or federal loan guarantees.
It was not accomplished by taxation, regulation, and federal government interference. And much of it was done despite federal programs and legislation that disadvantaged the west.
(Screw the West. We’ll take the rest!)

It was accomplished by well educated, hard working citizens of the province willing to take a risk with their finances and lives, in order to build a better life. And it has provided benefits to countless immigrants and other Canadians who were happy to come to this province to help in the building of a better life.

So sure.
Wexit may be difficult.
It will not be without its challenges.

But unlike the rest of much of Canada, who bask in the glory of government handouts and cash transfers and are thrilled with its new position of Transnational state glory, throwing up arguments, silly or otherwises, does not play to the Alberta crowd.

The many roadblocks and obstacles, fears, insults, that are thrown our way are not in any way daunting.
They are just issues and problems to be solved, addressed, fixed, changed, adapted to, ignored, etc.

Albertan’s have done this alone for hundreds of years and it is why this province is so successful today.

The more that you and others say it shouldn’t be done, or especially that it ‘can’t be done’ the happier were are to say:

“Just watch us”

We all are. Other than being delusional, you’re not special. – Garth

#132 Yukon Elvis on 12.03.19 at 11:17 am

Meanwhile the US would never, ever consider annexation. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. – Garth
………………………………

Trump tried to buy Greenland. Perhaps he would be interested in Alberta.

Sure. Help break up the largest US trading partner and closest ally, creating political instability on its northern border. You guys are a source of endless amusement. – Garth

#133 Marx on 12.03.19 at 11:22 am

Put your thoughts of sovereignty aside Alberta and embrace the new norm – socialism. Pay up. Independent thought, actions and self sufficiency will not be tolerated and will be taxed accordingly. Majority group-think rules

#134 not so liquid in alberta on 12.03.19 at 11:46 am

@ Remembrancer on 12.02.19 at 2:43 pm

=======================================

… spoken like a true Wynne-r…

#135 Work and Tumble on 12.03.19 at 11:59 am

I cant heat my home or cook food without Natural gas from the west. I am in Ontario and converted everything to natural gas over the years, even my pool heater, BBQ, dryer.

#136 Yukon Elvis on 12.03.19 at 12:34 pm

#132 Yukon Elvis on 12.03.19 at 11:17 am
Meanwhile the US would never, ever consider annexation. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. – Garth
………………………………

Trump tried to buy Greenland. Perhaps he would be interested in Alberta.

Sure. Help break up the largest US trading partner and closest ally, creating political instability on its northern border. You guys are a source of endless amusement. – Garth
……………………………

You are an endless source of amusement too. The Trumpet would not give a rat’s buttock about political instability in Canada. He would have the power to make it happen if he wanted to. Having said that, I don’t think Alberta will separate.

Of course not. Nor would the US Congress ever even inch towards annexation of Canadian territory. Stick to what you know. Whatever that is. – Garth

#137 Jason Meyer on 12.03.19 at 12:45 pm

Here in Alberta, Our Premier has really instigated the Wexit. WE have the highest GDP in the Country & the lowest $$ per person spend on Government services per person.

Hundreds a month being laid off by oil companies after over almost 5 billion in tax discounts to profitable businesses. While Tax incentives for new business & to diversify the economy are chopped. 5100 front-line healthcare workers jobs to be cut.

Unemployment Insurance application procedures & standards for families being laid off are not fair or equal to Quèbec & many have to rely on the food banks for two months to get a cheque..

We need a leader who cares about Alberta. Someone who is an Albertan.. we don’t have that anymore… I think that’s why there is a huge separatist movement… the province is so poorly managed.

#138 shockmaster on 12.03.19 at 12:55 pm

“‘Montreal,’ a city of four million people where the median single-family house price is $355,000, thanks in large part to a legacy of political instability and wingnut sovereigntists.”

Much higher income taxes in La belle province are also a major contributor to lower housing prices in the Province.

Total income tax on $100,000 – Ontario, 27.5%, Quebec 32%. But Quebeckers get almost-free daycare, worth about $14,000 a year. – Garth

#139 Remembrancer on 12.03.19 at 1:06 pm

#134 not so liquid in alberta on 12.03.19 at 11:46 am
@ Remembrancer on 12.02.19 at 2:43 pm

=======================================

… spoken like a true Wynne-r…
———————————————————-
Oh boo hoo, some anonymous poster using a new handle to the blog is calling me names using a not so clever take on words for the last premier of ON who over spent on shiny trinkets to deflect that the current premier is doing the same thing while claiming not to while running a higher deficit…

Oh, and if you’re actually from AB then I take it all back, JK can drive around in his APP shagging wagon spending your money on hiring his cronies for new jobs while he tells you AB is open for business for all I care…

#140 shockmaster on 12.03.19 at 1:06 pm

“Total income tax on $100,000 – Ontario, 27.5%, Quebec 32%. But Quebeckers get almost-free daycare, worth about $14,000 a year. – Garth”

subsidized daycare is a bonus for only a few years while the children need it. That lower tax rate lasts a lot longer. It’s a big factor.

Hey, you forgot the poutine and Canadiens. – Garth

#141 Sail away on 12.03.19 at 1:47 pm

Sure, blame other provinces and the Feds if you want, but Calgary’s own council is actively screwing city businesses:

https://www.retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2019/2/calgary-streetfront-retailers-shuttering-amid-property-tax-increases

What a great idea: if there’s a cash shortfall because of high vacancy rates, just increase taxes on the remaining companies. How could it go wrong?

#142 AGuyInVancouver on 12.03.19 at 2:17 pm

#110 Jenny Wang on 12.03.19 at 3:13 am
….The nail in Canadas coffin is the diabolical cabal of Trudeau, Soros and EU/UN ideologues. The lickspittke like Hussen, McKenna and Freeland will fail immediately once the American carpet baggers see that we called their bluff.

See you on the front lines, if you want to breath real freedom from globalist manure. And, saying that, even the EU has announced that the globalist policies have faile
_ _ _
And here I thought VIA Rail had cancelled the Crazy Train through Alberta. Turns out its still chugging along and apparently full of passengers.

#143 Marco on 12.03.19 at 2:30 pm

There is nothing but loss and hurt that flows out of thinking a hunk of the nation with a few million people in it can become sovereign….
Well this is a rule for Canada, Belgium, Germany and privileged countries like that. Tell that to former Yugoslavia or Spain or Lybia or Iraq or Syria…….

#144 Russ on 12.03.19 at 2:34 pm

If Alberta is smart they will gather a group of business and political leaders to caucus with a select group of B.C. business and private sector union leaders.

Find common goals regarding resource management and present the way forward to B.C. NDP and the Feds. Period.

They need to fight on their own terms.

Oh, um, never mind.

#145 Bob Dog on 12.03.19 at 2:56 pm

Who is responsible for the sale to Petro Canada to private interests?

Corrupt politicians who are guilty of crimes against Canada. These individuals are the reason we see no oil money flowing in the streets of every Canadian city as it does in Norway.

And who is responsible for the sale of Ontario Hydro to private interests? What a bunch of corrupt muppets we have running this sad country.

#146 James on 12.03.19 at 3:26 pm

#131 AB Boxster on 12.03.19 at 11:05 am

The delusion and ignorance here is breathtaking. No currency. No central bank. No military. No border controls. No RRSPs, TRFAs, RESPs, CPP, OAS, health care transfers, postal service and not enough population to sustain replacements without punitive new taxes, all while seeing multinationals flee and employment plummet along with real estate values and personal net worth. Plus you get to take your share of the national debt. Meanwhile the US would never, ever consider annexation. You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. – Garth

——————
Well those are all very ‘scary’ issues you bring up.
But perhaps the delusion is yours Garth.
What you really fail to understand Garth is the western Canadians are far more aligned with American sense of independence, entrepreneurship and can do attitude.
Alberta has been blessed land and resources,definitely. But it is the strength of its people and entrepreneurs that have actually developed the resources through ingenuity, risk taking and hard work.
(And no, none of it was funded by Quebec)
Much of this success was achieved despite the obvious anti-western policies put in place by the Canadian federal government. ( Think punishing Crow Rate, forced selling of grain to the Canada Wheat Board, NEP of 1980s)
Today, while you eastern Canadians deceive yourselves into believing that Canada will solve climate change , the high price of housing, or the pathetic wage growth of Canada, by taxing more, Albertan’s believe that developing resources that are demanded by the world (our farming industries, forestry industries, energy industries, IT industries) and the accompanying great jobs that come with these industries, is the way to move forward.
And of course, the average income levels in Alberta are massively higher than in any other province, because of this.
Do you not wonder why the average income level in most Canadian provinces (other than AB) is lower than average income levels than even the poorest states in the US?
I mean seriously. Had the oil sands been situated in Quebec or Ontario do you really believe that they would have been developed to become one of the biggest economic drivers for Canada and in fact the world?
So, the factor you wrongly discount, is the nature of the people in this province.
The people in this province have built this province from a rural backwater to a powerhouse of a province that produces the best agricultural products in the world (without forced supply management I might add) the best energy in the world, and the best educated people in Canada with the youngest population.
And it was done using the best environmental and land management practices in the world.
All contributing to the most successful province in Confederation.
(You know, the province that the federal government is trying to bankrupt with their absurd policies, all with the approval of eastern Canada.)
The success of Alberta was not accomplished by federal transfers, or federal investment, or federal taxation, or federal loan guarantees.
It was not accomplished by taxation, regulation, and federal government interference. And much of it was done despite federal programs and legislation that disadvantaged the west.
(Screw the West. We’ll take the rest!)
It was accomplished by well educated, hard working citizens of the province willing to take a risk with their finances and lives, in order to build a better life. And it has provided benefits to countless immigrants and other Canadians who were happy to come to this province to help in the building of a better life.
So sure.
Wexit may be difficult.
It will not be without its challenges.
But unlike the rest of much of Canada, who bask in the glory of government handouts and cash transfers and are thrilled with its new position of Transnational state glory, throwing up arguments, silly or otherwises, does not play to the Alberta crowd.
The many roadblocks and obstacles, fears, insults, that are thrown our way are not in any way daunting.
They are just issues and problems to be solved, addressed, fixed, changed, adapted to, ignored, etc.
Albertan’s have done this alone for hundreds of years and it is why this province is so successful today.
The more that you and others say it shouldn’t be done, or especially that it ‘can’t be done’ the happier were are to say:

“Just watch us”

We all are. Other than being delusional, you’re not special. – Garth
___________________________________________
The first real settlement of whites was founded in 1788. Fort Chipewyan was the first European settlement in Alberta and Alberta was nothing more than a fur trading centre until the mid 1800’s when Northern Europeans, Americans and people from Eastern Canada started to take advantage of free land. So really your hundreds of years statement is a little off. Needless to say every province started out this way with hard working dedicated people whom many of gave their lives to make the land livable. Try understanding how inhospitable it was in Northern Ontario during the same periods. Northern Ontario is vastly different from the warm fertile south along the great lakes. Your point is not hitting the target, again I would remind you that the imbeciles in Ottawa are where you should write your letters to. We are all Canadians first. We need to vote out the people that we don’t see eye to eye with and not insult our compatriots. Garth has a point with your small provincial numbers it would be a herculean task to go it alone. We have cities here in Ontario with more people than the entire province and it is still a monumental task to pay our share.

#147 Marco on 12.03.19 at 3:50 pm

DELETED

#148 Jenny Wang on 12.03.19 at 10:57 pm

#142 Guy. Scared…..much? Pull your skirt up and face facts.

#149 Doug Straus on 12.04.19 at 8:01 pm

I understood it as 20 year GIC’s in his RRIF’s. RRIF’s every year deplete or withdrawal from principal. He said that his RRIF runs out in 20 years which is 81 years old in his case. The 2.5% is a fixed rate for 20 years in which I guess his insurance, advisor guy thought it would give a stable, predictable income.

The $27,000 is the annual RRIF payments based on the declining balance and it looks like it stays within the minimum annual RRIF withdrawals required by the CRA. I did not check this but on a declining balance it makes sense this math most likely works out.