Dog talk

Bow-wow. Time for a Blog Dog update on some of the sordid, lamentable and usually nauseating topics this site loves to wallow in. Pull on the hip waders. Here we go.

Siphoned seniors, going in reverse:

So the amount of money being sucked out of houses by old people is reaching astonishing levels. Reverse mortgage debt is just a few Cybertrucks short of $4 billion, according to the federal agency that worries about such things. The rate of growth is staggering – 26% in a year, or more than $800 million over that period. Needless to say the wrinklies have never swallowed this much debt before.

And it’s sad. Reverse mortgages are giant money-sucking proboscises thrust into the livers of the financially illiterate, the naïve or the unprepared. By borrowing against their equity with open-ended loans at huge rates of interest (currently well over 6%), these innocents end up owing more money every single month. The only way out is to sell the place and placate the parasite or croak and hope the kids don’t hate you too much.

Thinking of a reverse mortgage? Then stop. Sell the house, invest and rent, or set up a simple-interest HELOC. Get your spawn to make payments as a deposit on their inheritance. Only fair.

We told ya this was coming:

Yesterday the topic was rain tax. The offspring of the carbon tax. And the message is simple – liquid wealth can be shifted around in the name of tax avoidance. Real estate, however, is a sitting duck. Utility costs are mounting. Rental income is being targeted. Transactional costs are ridiculous. Storm runoff, sewers, water consumption, garbage collection – all taxed as user fees abound. There are taxes for leaving a house empty. More taxes if it’s a second property. Extra levies if it’s worth a lot. And the relentless march higher of property tax.

Poor Van owners just got shellacked with a local boost of 8.2% – four times the rate of inflation and double the average increase in family incomes. And there’s more – a 9.4% jump in the cost of service fees for water, sewage and picking up the trash. The dudes running the city have increased their budget more than 7%, to $1.6 billion. “It is about tackling the big problems that everybody wants us to tackle,” says a long-serving councillor, “getting more affordable housing, dealing with the opioid crisis, making sure we are combating climate change.” More to come. Get used to it. Or get out.

What? Realtors lie? Who knew?

In the Kingdom of 416, this kind of statement appears just about every month when the local real estate board releases its questionable stats: “We will likely see stronger price growth moving forward if sales growth continues to outpace listings growth, leading to more competition between home buyers.”

Ah yes, competition. Also known as FOMO – the fear of missing out that whips young buyers into an orgiastic frenzy of desire so they pay whatever’s needed to get a home before all properties have been snapped up, and they find themselves bedded down on pizza boxes under a bridge. Have you seen those ‘Sold Over Asking!’ stickers than realtors love to slap on their signs? Pure Viagra.

Well reality is something else. A study released this week found more than 70% of the sales in a hot area of Toronto went to buyers who paid less than asking. Yes. Less. That included detacheds as well as condos.

What does that tell you about the market? And realtors?

What comes after the Boomer boom. Bust.

A moister lament is that the Boomers stole all the good jobs and houses. True, maybe, but it will come to an inevitable end as the Stones generation fades and eventually pfffts. If Canada is like America (it is) then about 60% of all the houses are currently owned by wrinklies. Real estate outfit Zillow figures Boomer aging will create havoc in the real estate market over the next two decades, potentially whacking buyers now paying peak prices.

The estimate is that almost a third of all the homes in America will come to market – about a million per year by the end of the 2020s. Hardest hit there will be the retirement destinations like Florida and Arizona, as well as the rust belt states where the young left and parents remained. The result will be supply overwhelming demand, and falling values. The good news is houses will get affordable. The bad news is reduced equity for owners.

How about Canada?

Actually our Boomer population is proportionately larger than in the US. We have a higher rate of home ownership. We owe one helluva lot more in mortgage debt. Our savings rate is less. Mortgages reset more often. Our government pensions more meagre. Figure it out, kids. If you’re buying a house today from someone in slippers and a Motley Crue T-shirt, don’t.

129 comments ↓

#1 yvr_lurker on 11.27.19 at 3:55 pm

Good analysis today, but there is one thing that (unfortunately for the next generation) I do not agree with. I think Toronto and YVR will always be super expensive owing to the fact that this is the place where the large number of immigrants that Canada is taking in
(some poor, others very well-off) are settling. Global cities. Just wait until Hong Kong is crushed slowly in a vice by China; lots of very well-off people there (300,000 in fact with Canadian passports) will be seeking to get out. They won’t be moving to Trois Riveire or Frederiction. Unfortunate situation for the young LOCAL people in our major cities who have been screwed over big-time by this globalization of the housing market. Better hope for a big inheritance or inherited property if you want to thrive (and not just barely survive) in our major cities.

#2 Lost...but not leased on 11.27.19 at 3:57 pm

Phyyrrzzt………

#3 Re-Cowtown on 11.27.19 at 4:07 pm

If Canada is like America (it is) then about 60% of all the houses are currently owned by wrinklies.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Kind of true, but the US has a far younger demographic than Canada does. We’re more like Japan, unfortunately. The US has the demographic power to blast through the boomer generation and keep on going. Canada? Not. And this will effect everything from interest rates to housing.

In the old days Canada and the US were in lockstep. Now we’re diverging. They just don’t need us anymore.

And not much to be done. It takes 30 years to grow a productive adult, so even if the Mills went at it like the Greatest Generation did after WWII we’re still decades away from a reprieve.

#4 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 4:15 pm

I’m Radiant

#234 Wilfred on 11.27.19 at 3:54 pm
Shawn:
Our bodies, especially in a light state of dress also typically radiate heat to the ground and any cooler surroundings and I believe the rate of radiation depends on color. I believe Snow will attract more heat from our bodies than frozen green grass of the same temperature.
——————————————————————-
Our body heat radiates from our warm skin to any colder surface like a window in winter. However, a white, cold surface such as snow actually “reflects” radiant heat and darker surfaces absorb. Basic thermodynamics!

**********************************
I will take your word for that which actually agrees with what I said except I guess I got the color part backward.

So, our warm body will radiate heat not only to the colder window pane (which is a good point) but also to the snow outside even if the snow is white? Or does the whiteness of the snow prevent any radiation from our bodies despite its cool temperature?

And you would agree that we need a higher air temperature to feel the same level of warmth in a room with windows and snow outside as opposed to the same room with no windows?

#5 The Greater Cauliflower on 11.27.19 at 4:24 pm

The kids will inherit all those Boomer houses and use them as investment properties. Why sell? No big housing correction.

#6 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 4:36 pm

Radiation and Color

Upon a bit of reflection, I must agree that Wilfred is 100% correct that dark colors like Black absorb radiation much better than white. A Black roofing shingle gets hotter than a white one on a warm sunny summer day.

I was just in Florida and the subject of roofing shingles came up and looking around the neighborhood, they were all sort of greyish. Not the black we often see in Canada.

But here is a question: Since black absorbs heat better, why did human skin pigmentation evolve to black in the tropics and white in the colder parts of the world? Obviously there is more to that than the color and the radiation. Tanned and darker skin better protects us from the sun’s radiation.

#7 Camille on 11.27.19 at 4:39 pm

Mr Turner you are a futurist, and a good one in my humble opinion.

#8 islander on 11.27.19 at 4:43 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-rescuers-search-for-albania-quake-survivors-as-death-toll-rises-to-26/

Got a roof over your head? Time to give thanks!

#9 Kitsilano Kid on 11.27.19 at 4:51 pm

This is for all the chumps living in YVR that decided not to own real estate. Amazon now working on a major expansion in the downtown core with capacity to hire up to 10,000 people. My rental condos are brimming with cash already not to mention my PR has tripled in the past decade. Can’t wait to jam the rents upwards as all these Amazon bots battle for living space. Wish I could AirBNB it all but the commies in charge say no.

#10 HoweStreet.com on 11.27.19 at 4:59 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Evictions and Foreclosures in BC.
Stabilizing…Equilibrium…Nonsense.

https://www.howestreet.com/2019/11/evictions-and-foreclosures-in-bc/

#11 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.27.19 at 5:08 pm

Accidentally put this comment in the blog comments from a couple days ago, but I think it’s something everyone on here should be aware. Mr. T had already warned us about this.

So now we’ve had op-eds on why the TFSA should be capped. Now we have why the dividend tax credit should be “fixed”. Next will be the why capital gains inclusion rates should be upped. I think Debtslavecreator may be on to something… Anyways, here’s the post and the link;

#114 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.27.19 at 9:26 am

Here’s another Ottawa op-ed hit piece softening up the general public to accept a Canadian eligible dividend tax credit overhaul this time… thankfully the financial industry is almost always smarter than the idiots in Ottawa.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/our-dividend-tax-rules-are-broken-and-need-to-be-fixed

#12 prairie person on 11.27.19 at 5:17 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-woman-ordered-to-pay-600000-to-home-seller-after-backing-out/

#13 CEW9 on 11.27.19 at 5:25 pm

#7 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 4:36 pm

But here is a question: Since black absorbs heat better, why did human skin pigmentation evolve to black in the tropics and white in the colder parts of the world? Obviously there is more to that than the color and the radiation. Tanned and darker skin better protects us from the sun’s radiation.

Melanin inhibits vitamin D production in the skin. Fair skin produces more vitamin D, which is important in low sunlight regions.

#14 Keyboard Smasher on 11.27.19 at 5:31 pm

Great article as usual, but I’ve got another personal finance dilemma that perhaps someone here can address.

How do you remove an article from the internet that details a crime you committed?

#15 The Wet One on 11.27.19 at 5:44 pm

Just to be clear, you’re saying that the following:

” Storm runoff, sewers, water consumption, garbage collection – all taxed as user fees abound.”

Should be free?

Or should not be paid for?

Are these things that private industry can provide?

What are you saying here?

I’m not quite following you.

Do you not need wastewater removal, water supplies or garbage removal at your home? Can you do stormwater drainage by yourself at your place (on an acreage or farm probably, in a neighbourhood of dwellings of various sorts, I have my doubts).

Help me understand.

#16 No Federal C Tax here on 11.27.19 at 5:53 pm

BC has had a Carbon Tax since 2008. So, T2’s Carbon Tax will not affect us.

I would be interested in your opinion on how the tax affected us in BC and what the rest of the nation might expect in the future.

#17 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 6:03 pm

Reverse Mortgages

It is indeed too bad that the interest rate is not a lot lower such as 3%. In that case if older home owners took it out as say $1000 per month (not a lump sum), the interest would be small at first and the equity would be drawn down over quite a few years.

I imagine the reason the interest rate is so high is there is no CMHC insurance for the lenders?

What say, we petition CMHC to give their insurance for these mortgages? (Cue Exploding heads… I shall take cover against the incoming insults to be expected for that suggestion).

#18 Not 1st on 11.27.19 at 6:14 pm

Isn’t it more likely the US boomers will siphon their 401ks before selling their home? Maybe both will happen.

Those carbon tax loving millennials have no idea what they voted for. Likely their own economic enslavement. But I hear the edibles are awesome.

#19 Kurt on 11.27.19 at 6:15 pm

#7 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 4:36 pm

On skin pigmentation: the darker pigments reduce skin cancer. The lighter pigments allow greater production of vitamin D for improved bone strength. In prehistory, most fractures would be fatal, if only because they impaired food gathering. Hence, human skin pigment is the result of an evolutionary equilibrium between these two concerns. I have heard that the ancestors of modern-day Indians (no, not Canadian Aboriginals) had light skin, and some of them had blond hair and blue eyes. The time to reach equilibrium in a given environment is about 5-10,000 years. Light-pink people like myself are descended from those unfortunate enough to live in the gloom of Northern Europe since about the last ice-age.

#20 Kurt on 11.27.19 at 6:19 pm

#11 Figure it Out on 11.27.19 at 4:56 pm

The Blackbird was painted with radar-absorbing “iron ball” paint. Photographic film of the time tended to render it as dark blue, but it was seriously black.

#21 Sail away on 11.27.19 at 6:27 pm

Nice to see we’re becoming an engineering blog.

Three principles of engineering:
1. F=m*a
2. Shit flows downhill
3. You can’t push a rope

And the overriding design theme: When in doubt, make it stout.

Finally, a brainteaser:
You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

Good luck.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.19 at 6:41 pm

@#16 Keyboard Smasher
“How do you remove an article from the internet….
+++++

You dont.

#23 Chelsea on 11.27.19 at 6:54 pm

It is so hilarious to assume the rain tax… come on people.. BC and the rest of Canada pours down enough rain to drown us out. Yes, next the farts from cats, dogs etc…. horses and cows next. What next! Our blood next! No scruples no brains! Well Canadian government will suck the blood right out of you.. just wait!

#24 Ray on 11.27.19 at 6:56 pm

I think the argument of why the climate is changing is mostly irrelevant at this time. If we pretty much stopped burning all fossil fuels, there is still about four feet of sea level rise baked in by 2100. The main issues are natural positive feedback processes, that accelerate the impacts. For example, ice reflects about 90% of the sunlight harmlessly back into space, where- as open water absorbs about 90% of the sunlight as heat. As the oceans warm, less sea ice is formed, so less light is reflected, so more light is absorbed, so the water warming is accelerated, which removes even more ice…… Another positive feedback loop is the decaying plants currently locked up frozen in Tundra ice. AS the atmosphere warms, previously ice bound plants become exposed to the air. Bacteria/fungi decompose the plants into carbon dioxide and methane. The release of these gases contributes to atmosphere warming, which contributes to more tundra melting. The oceans will rise because warm water occupies more volume than cold water, and ice currently on land (Antarctica & Greenland) melts and adds new water into the ocean.
The oceans will rise, and seashore cities will have to deal with it. Think of Miami, New York, London. How do you do that? Will the cities have to be moved to higher ground? A very expensive proposition because all the infrastructure (Subways, power/communication cables, buildings). Western countries are already in debt up to their wazoo and are poor in making large hard decisions on a timeline, (everyone will have an opinion that can delay things in the courts). So, Wall Street will become under water, financially and figuratively, and the climate change deniers’ children will have to deal with it.

https://phys.org/news/2015-12-impact.html
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/when-rising-seas-hit-home

#25 Nonplused on 11.27.19 at 7:13 pm

One thing you have to admit is that Trump has a sort of sense of humor, which is unusual in a politician.

“Thankfully, Bread and Butter have been specially raised by the Jacksons to remain calm under any condition, which will be very important because they’ve already received subpoenas to appear in Adam Schiff’s basement on Thursday,” adding, “It’s true. Hundreds of people have.”

https://postnewsd2.blogspot.com/2019/11/president-trump-jokes-pardoned.html

And now it seems some Dems are getting cold feet:

http://www.stationgossip.com/2019/11/democrats-in-panic-mode-michigan.html

“Censure” is the new word of the day.

You can’t make this stuff up. Or you would think you can’t, but somebody must be. I am increasingly convinced the whole thing is scripted like a reality TV show. Why else would they have a reality TV show star as president? Even Trump’s victory over Hillary has all the hallmarks of a carefully crafted upset similar to when Trump would make an upset decision on The Apprentice.

#26 Timmy on 11.27.19 at 7:18 pm

Re “0 Kitsilano Kid on 11.27.19 at 4:51 pm
This is for all the chumps living in YVR that decided not to own real estate. Amazon now working on a major expansion in the downtown core with capacity to hire up to 10,000 people. My rental condos are brimming with cash already not to mention my PR has tripled in the past decade. Can’t wait to jam the rents upwards as all these Amazon bots battle for living space. Wish I could AirBNB it all but the commies in charge say no”

————-
Yeah and people schlepping product in warehouses are going to pay 2 grand in rent? lol….3/4 of the properties in Vancouver sold below assessed value this year. Guess which way it’s going?

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.19 at 7:30 pm

I always wondered what BC Teachers did on “Pro-D days”

They were learning how to speak in gender neutral tones.
Its as easy as 1,2,3

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/11/27/chilliwack-sogi-bctf-lawsuit/

#28 Ustabe on 11.27.19 at 7:31 pm


BC has had a Carbon Tax since 2008. So, T2’s Carbon Tax will not affect us.

I would be interested in your opinion on how the tax affected us in BC and what the rest of the nation might expect in the future.

Never noticed it.

I miss the bitcoin/weed stock days…wonder where all those prognosticators disappeared to.

#29 Nonplused on 11.27.19 at 7:43 pm

“Poor Van owners just got shellacked with a local boost of 8.2% – four times the rate of inflation and double the average increase in family incomes.”

First, I doubt family incomes went up at twice the inflation rate. That sort of wage pressure has not existed in Canada in decades. But regardless the published numbers are what they are.

But an 8.2% property tax increase? To combat climate change? Or address the homeless crises? There will be a lot more homeless people if the city keeps pulling crap like that.

It’s as if politicians think there is an infinite pool of money out there, and all they have to do is suck harder and the soda will never get empty. If it does you get a free refill. But that’s not how it works in real life. In real life neither the rich or the poor have very much money, they have income, expenses, debt, and assets. Nobody has a bunch of gold coins piled up in the basement like Scrooge McDuck. So when the government raises taxes, something has to give, usually on the expenses side. Or the debt increases if there is no room to cut expenses, which sometimes there isn’t. Once you’ve cut the gym membership, your kid’s piano lessons, smokes, started making your own beer and wine, started cutting your own hair, and shopping at thrift stores there is only so much more you can do. Eventually you have to sell the house and live in an RV. Much easier to do in California than Canada though. Those things aren’t made to stay warm in a Canadian winter, although I suppose even without heat they are better than a tent. You might be able to pull it off in Victoria or Vancouver though. But not in Calgary. Brrrr. Even your bottled water will freeze.

(Yes I know RV’s have heaters. But if you have ever tried to manage your propane and batteries when the overnight low is +4 you know of which I speak. Minus 20? Forget about it.)

#30 EB on 11.27.19 at 7:45 pm

#27 Ray on 11.27.19 at 6:56 pm – If only there were some technology that could hold back four feet of water. But I guess New York is doomed, unlike the Netherlands for some reason. I don’t doubt the existence of feedback loops, but I question their infinite capacity for carnage – this is by no means the first interglacial and the permafrost must have melted plenty of times before (14+ times in the last million years if we believe Ehlers and Gibbard (Quat. Int. 2007)). The citation of feedback loops is usually followed by an implied ellipsis, I note, leaving the implications to the reader’s imagination. But in any case four feet of water ain’t much compared to the nearly 400 feet that the sea level rose at the end of the last glacial period, to the Earth’s apparent indifference.

#31 Fish lips Lonnegan told me ... on 11.27.19 at 7:46 pm

#24 Sail away on 11.27.19 at 6:27 pm
Finally, a brainteaser:
You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

If you drop somebody overboard with cement shoes they sink to the bottom. Who cares what happens to the lake level?

#32 akashic record on 11.27.19 at 7:48 pm

#183 akashic record on 11.27.19 at 9:19 am

Has anyone calculated the impact of “climate emergency” on “the portfolio”?

Will it make it nosedive?

Can anyone diversify “climate emergency” out of the cozy average 6% return?

Should anyone even bother, if it is true that in the near future life in this planet goes into survival mode, which will require all personal sacrifice?

In the climate of rain tax, who is to say that nationalization of investment accounts is not in the wind?

It’s a small price to pay for the planet to survive, isn’t it?

Do you ever worry about your credibility? It might be time to start. – Garth

—-

Not worried at all.

My family, including me, used to to live in houses, condos that we used to own before the government decided that it should be their property, without any compensation, instead, moving forward we should pay rent for using them. The same happened to our cottages, lands – except we could not even rent or lease them.

At least decades later we got the opportunity to re-purchase them, “at a discounted price”, when privatization become fashionable again.

We were out of luck with confiscated businesses and investments in securities.

The way how “climate emergency” has been shaping up, with the rain tax and the rhetoric, it sure smells inconveniently similar.

While you worry about my credibility, you should rather be concerned about how will you be able to provide the usual return for your clients in the “climate emergency” economy.

You seem to think that this country is blessed with some kind of irrevocable immunity to earn 6% on investment, as if it was a UN human rights declaration.

During those times when we used to pay rent for living in the properties that we used to own, we also had to invest in government bonds, whether we wanted to buy them or not. They were designed to make no meaningful return.

We had to buy them not to satisfy our selfish greed, but for the greater good. Kind of like the rain and carbon tax.

At that time, we were told, world peace was in extinction grade emergency.

Who were we to dare doubt all those in the know.

#33 n1tro on 11.27.19 at 7:58 pm

Anyone look at the Hamilton market lately? The dodgy non mountain side with the shacks along the streets with empty shops? A property I was looking at which was originally bought for $179K in 2015, owners did nothing with the property which needs a total renovation. Bank owned now because I guess the owners couldn’t keep up with the $400/month payments just sold for $350K as is. No garage, no driveway, no real backyard. FOMO is still going strong.

#34 Treasure Island CEO - 31,049,342.88 Offshore on 11.27.19 at 8:10 pm

Trudeau’s secret plan to tax your home: Wheels are already in motion.

In 2018, behind closed doors in a Liberal caucus meeting, Justin Trudeau’s housing expert Adam Vaughan proposed a secret plan to implement a tax on up to 50% of the profits on the sale of your home.

This official policy proposal from the Liberal caucus promotes “increasing the capital gains” tax on your home and details a “50% tax after one year of ownership, 25% after two years, 15% after 3 years, 10% after 4 years, 5% after five.”

Debunked. – Garth

#35 neo on 11.27.19 at 8:10 pm

“If Canada is like America (it is) then about 60% of all the houses are currently owned by wrinklies.”

Canada has the most prolific and efficient immigration system the world has ever known. Your government will have no trouble replacing you. Bank profits will be just fine once the newcomers are acclimated to a lifetime of debt slavery.

#36 Drake on 11.27.19 at 8:16 pm

DELETED

#37 TurnerNation on 11.27.19 at 8:26 pm

Yup yup Toronto getting the same huge Garbage fee hikes with more planned the next 10 years. A blank cheque.
Advise all kids to get into government, NGO, Charity, Crown Corp jobs, the primary output being 6-figure salaries.
Jobs for Life with the Party jaja.

https://trnto.com/garbage-removal-in-toronto-is-set-for-a-major-rate-increase-next-year/

Get ready for a garbage bin price hike in the new year. The City of Toronto is set to increase rates for trash removal to the tune of 2.5% in 2020. That doesn’t necessarily sound so bad, but it’s also slashing existing subsidies, so homeowners will be carrying significantly increased costs come January.

If you have a small garbage bin, you could be paying $86 more in 2020 for the city to collect your waste. This year, residents were charged $260 for a small bin but received around $160 in rebates for a total carrying cost of about $100.

With the proposed changes, the city will cut its rebate share in half. Factoring in the rate increase and the reduced rebate, residents will now be looking at $186 in annual garbage fees, which is $86 more than 2019.

For some, that’ll be a drop in the pond, but when you consider the percentage increase, it’s a bit more dramatic. When it comes to the small bins, the new fees represent an 86 percent increase in cost.
..
Next year’s rate hikes are part of a 10-year financial plan that forecasts additional increases each year until 2029

#38 Dan on 11.27.19 at 8:32 pm

@num24 Sail Away

I say that the water level neither rises nor falls

#39 Shawn Allen, P.Eng. on 11.27.19 at 8:32 pm

An Engineering Blog

#24 Sail away on 11.27.19 at 6:27 pm
Nice to see we’re becoming an engineering blog.

Three principles of engineering:
1. F=m*a
2. Shit flows downhill
3. You can’t push a rope

And the overriding design theme: When in doubt, make it stout.

Finally, a brainteaser:
You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

Good luck.

****************************
In my day it was

1. The sum of the forces = zero.
2. The sum of the moments (circular forces) = zero
3. You can’t push on a rope.

I guess these were the rules for static analysis as opposed to things moving or accelerating.

Pond level remains unchanged because the rock was previously pushing the boat down displacing the same amount of water as the volume of the rock. The boat will rise slightly.

Here is my question:

A car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?

Also: You want to keep your coffee hot. Should you pour in the cream immediately or will it be better or worse to wait and pour in the cream after two minutes. In which case will the coffee be hotter or will it matter? And what is the reason?

#40 Yukon Elvis on 11.27.19 at 8:49 pm

#42 Shawn Allen, P.Eng. on 11.27.19 at 8:32 pm

A car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?

Also: You want to keep your coffee hot. Should you pour in the cream immediately or will it be better or worse to wait and pour in the cream after two minutes. In which case will the coffee be hotter or will it matter? And what is the reason?
…………………………

A tree falls in the forest but there is no one around to hear it. How do we get you under it ?

#41 Phylis on 11.27.19 at 8:58 pm

#19 No Federal C Tax here on 11.27.19 at 5:53 pm
BC has had a Carbon Tax since 2008.

My questions are, how much tax was collected, what has it fixed or how many tonnes has it prevented?

If the tax is effective then let’s continue.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.19 at 8:59 pm

@#42 Shawn Allen, Ring Knocker

The ultimate question to surmise your I.Q. and E.Q. is…

If you can tune a piano.
Can you tuna fish?

#43 Ray on 11.27.19 at 9:14 pm

#33 EB
The earth will be fine, it has been through much worse, from being a completely frozen snowball to rain forest jungles on Antarctica.

#44 Hamsterwheelie on 11.27.19 at 9:20 pm

Dad falls into that first camp – well almost – he’s using a heloc. I’ve sent him your blog posts re: reverse mortgages and heard nothing back. I’ve been banned from discussing money matters any further. And yet…lotsa house, on a lake, very cold and he admits, boring in winter. Have offered to rent him a unit next to us (we would be making a lot more if we rent to anyone else and we can’t afford to float the unit for free) He believes paying rent is giving money away…but he could be living off the interest after selling the casa. Have a built in dog sitter, a social life, family, home cooking… Ah well – as I say – banned from discussing finances, especially his. My real worry is that the market will turn upside down and he will be left with little to nothing to take care of his needs and wants. (In this regards our finances are tied together because we would, of course, take care of him)

#45 prairie person on 11.27.19 at 9:21 pm

Some 11,935 consumers filed for insolvency in September, according to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy — a 19-per-cent increase from a year earlier and the biggest annual gain since 2009. So far in 2019, there have been 102,023 consumer insolvencies, the second-most for the first nine months of a year in records dating back to 1987. –BNN

#46 dakkie on 11.27.19 at 9:27 pm

DELETED

#47 Dave on 11.27.19 at 9:28 pm

This is not analysis – it’s fear mongering.

#48 David on 11.27.19 at 9:29 pm

Those reverse mortgages all we can say is yikes! The problem is the ads are innocuous and soft sell. Grandma and Grandpa sitting in their reclining medichair watching cable tv all day inevitably fall victim. Same sort of thing happens with all the stair lifts and bath chair and prayer lines making elderly peoples last years more comfortable. The $4 billion figure is astounding.

#49 45north on 11.27.19 at 9:30 pm

Sail Away:

You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

the level of the pond will fall

because the rock in the boat displaces enough water to keep it afloat
but the rock in the pond displaces less water and it sinks

as a boomer, I went to Syracuse NY where Archimedes used to lecture

#50 Mom on 11.27.19 at 9:32 pm

Toronto is to pay more for garbage disposal? $186? Waaa. I live in the bush on Lake Superior, and we pay $300 annually.

Thankfully, we’ve left the city, so the new, propsed run-off tax won’t affect us…personally. We still have one remaining rental property in the city, which we should ditch. The city can’t control its spending, so we pay $1700 a year in property taxes on it (includes garbage, but not water/sewer). Ridiculous, since it’s just a 1500 sq ft, 116 year old house, worth only $105,000 on the market. Except MPAC insists it’s worth more, and won’t reduce the assessed value, despite appealing it.

#51 Shawn Allen on 11.27.19 at 9:32 pm

Analysis?

#45 Dave on 11.27.19 at 9:28 pm

This is not analysis – it’s fear mongering.

*****************************
This is also an opinion blog. Wishy-washy opinions are less interesting.

#52 Sierts on 11.27.19 at 9:33 pm

#11 Figure it Out on 11.27.19 at 4:56 pm

Why was the SR-71 painted black?

———————————-

Sound, heat, light, atomic-radiation are mainly distributed by moving in waves (radiating).
If they hit a “mirror” (something of light colour or shiny) they change direction/go back.
Radar sends out waves, then listens, if (and from where) these waves come back.
Black planes absorb more (radar)waves and send less waves back, than shiny aluminium planes.

Staying with reflected waves…
Sunlight is broken and partially reflected by the “mirror” earth.
Part of the reflected heat does not escape into space, because it is absorbed or again reflected back to earth by “stuff” flying in the air around the world.
(most of this “stuff” is water/vapor.)
A full 0,04 % of “stuff” is CO2.
So, if every CO2 particle gets hit by heat radiation, earth’s heatloss through reflection goes down to only 99.96%.

Shucks! Now i’m really frightened!

(for simplicity i did not break up the 0,04 % CO2 into natural and human-caused emissions)

Less CO2 in the air and less temperature result in less vegetational growth.
Less vegetation results in more hungry and starving humans.

#53 Dutchy on 11.27.19 at 9:39 pm

Just saying:
Vancouver has the lowest property taxes in North-America.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/best-worst-cities-canada-property-taxes_ca_5cd55eb8e4b07bc729777ace

Bidding wars, up to 15 offers and as much as 35% of sales above asking…

https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/real-estate/bidding-wars-multiple-offers-the-norm-in-montreal-real-estate-market

#54 Gramps on 11.27.19 at 9:45 pm

The pond level goes down.
The rock in the boat is displacing equivalent weight
When it the rock is in the water it displaces it’s volume.
Since the rock sinks, it’s volume is less than the equivalent volume of water.
The bottom of the tire is doing 60 mph. Probably a minuscule amount of slippage. If it was going faster or slower it wouldn’t stay with the car. The rotation speed varies with circumference, but not the speed.
Pour your cream in immediately. Thickens the coffee and slows down convection heat loss.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.19 at 9:59 pm

@#48 praireperson
“Some 11,935 consumers filed for insolvency in September, according to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy — a 19-per-cent increase from a year earlier and the biggest annual gain since 2009. So far in 2019, there have been 102,023 consumer insolvencies, the second-most for the first nine months of a year in records dating back to 1987. –BNN’
+++++

Where?
canada?
US?
Alberta?
Sask?
Man?

#56 DON on 11.27.19 at 10:05 pm

“The Kenney government wants Ottawa’s help — and some money as well — to deal with the growing number of abandoned oil and gas wells in the province, while creating jobs in the process.”

In a letter sent Monday to Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Alberta is seeking federal assistance to “accelerate the reclamation of abandoned oil and gas wells.”

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-alberta-seeks-ottawas-help-and-money-in-cleaning-up-abandoned-wells

Gotta wonder if this is a ‘mutually agreed upon olive branch’ or Kenny is just a passive aggressive.

#57 45north on 11.27.19 at 10:06 pm

Mom: Ridiculous, since it’s just a 1500 sq ft, 116 year old house, worth only $105,000 on the market. Except MPAC insists it’s worth more

I heard a story that in India, the government could buy your house for what you say it’s worth

#58 Herb on 11.27.19 at 10:08 pm

#24 Sail Away,

A body floating in a liquid displaces its own weight of that liquid? “Eureka”, shouted Archimedes, jumped out of his bath and ran naked into the street. (Grade 12 physics many years ago was memorable.)

#59 DON on 11.27.19 at 10:10 pm

#9 islander on 11.27.19 at 4:43 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-rescuers-search-for-albania-quake-survivors-as-death-toll-rises-to-26/

Got a roof over your head? Time to give thanks!
**********

Yup!

#60 Al on 11.27.19 at 10:20 pm

Retired people don’t qualify for simple interest Helocs. Hence the growth of reverse mortgages

#61 VicPaul on 11.27.19 at 10:28 pm

Figure it out, kids. If you’re buying a house today from someone in slippers and a Motley Crue T-shirt, don’t.
– Garth

In the era of social media, flash mobs and mass force manipulation….and you throw this out to the dogs…this pre-chewed, lightly bacteria-seasoned rawhide?
That bone’s got some meat on it…

#62 DON on 11.27.19 at 10:53 pm

@#32 Nonplused

Once you’ve cut the gym membership, your kid’s piano lessons, smokes, started making your own beer and wine, started cutting your own hair, and shopping at thrift stores there is only so much more you can do. Eventually you have to sell the house and live in an RV. Much easier to do in California than Canada though. Those things aren’t made to stay warm in a Canadian winter, although I suppose even without heat they are better than a tent. You might be able to pull it off in Victoria or Vancouver though. But not in Calgary. Brrrr. Even your bottled water will freeze…

******************

Priced out of small towns a lot more people are living in RVs moving to and from RV parks on Vancouver Island. People work in Victoria and park their RVs along side vacant lots and parks etc then go home on the weekend.

If I remember correctly Surrey just made it illegal to park on the street and live in your RV.

I was walking near an electricians Van as he opened the door, I saw a bed inside. Nice new extended version that you can stand in. He looked like he had it all set up.

#63 NoName on 11.27.19 at 11:05 pm

#11 Figure it Out on 11.27.19 at 4:56 pm
Other questions to research for those questing after thermodynamics knowledge:

What is the albedo effect?
Why was the SR-71 painted black?

I guess because its fast. You probably already so this. friend of mine showed me this few weeks back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AyHH9G9et0

#64 Lily on 11.27.19 at 11:14 pm

DELETED

#65 Deplorable Dude on 11.27.19 at 11:39 pm

#27 Ray….”, there is still about four feet of sea level rise baked in by 2100.”

Yeah yeah…..stuck record….’experts’ have been making ridiculous claims about rising seas since the 80’s.

Here ya go….official NOAA sea gauge records. I challenge you to find ANY gauge that shows an accelerating rise beyond the nominal linear rises over the last century….which is what we would expect if we had mass melting.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

My local sea level in Campbell River has dropped half a foot in the last century..

#66 Fortune500 on 11.27.19 at 11:48 pm

The final argument is easy to dispute and is already happening … simply bring in more people. Allow for higher immigration levels, problem solved!

If you do not think this is the direction Canada will go in to ‘save the Boomers’ than you haven’t been paying attention.

#67 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 12:09 am

#52 45north on 11.27.19 at 9:30 pm
Sail Away:

You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

the level of the pond will fall

because the rock in the boat displaces enough water to keep it afloat
but the rock in the pond displaces less water and it sinks

as a boomer, I went to Syracuse NY where Archimedes used to lecture

—————————————

Correct. Good job.

When in the boat, the rock displaces a water volume equal to its mass, but when underwater it displaces a water volume equal to its volume. Any object with greater density than water will displace more water when being carried in a boat.

#68 DON on 11.28.19 at 12:24 am

The morning commute, local radio stations running ads for Reverse Mortgages. Former news anchor Mr. Bill Good is one voice that comes to mind in BC. He is retired and I guess he appeals to his age group as they (somewhat) trusted him as a news anchor prior to the internet taking off.

I hear Tom Selleck is/was a voice in the US.

#69 Dr V on 11.28.19 at 12:24 am

24 Sail away – when in the boat, the rock will displace
a volume of water which has equal weight to the rock
ie more volume than the rock becuz rock is denser,

When dropped in the water, the rock only displaces its volume.

So to start, the lake level contains the volume of water plus the volume of water representing the rocks weight.
After, the water level contains the same amount of water by volume. but only adds the volume of the rock.

so the lake level drops. Agree with 45 north.

If it doesn’t seem intuitive, imagine a very small but very dense rock (collapsed star dense) on a large boat in a small pond.

#70 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 12:34 am

#42 Shawn Allen, P.Eng. on 11.27.19 at 8:32 pm

Here is my question:

A car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?

Also: You want to keep your coffee hot. Should you pour in the cream immediately or will it be better or worse to wait and pour in the cream after two minutes. In which case will the coffee be hotter or will it matter? And what is the reason?

———————————–

Let’s see:

Assuming the car is not skidding or burning rubber, the bottom of the tires would not be moving relative to the road. The tires maintain full traction from the weight of the car and friction factor between the rubber and the road.

Second… hmmm… conduction and convection, no phase changes except the coffee steaming. I’d say pour the cream in immediately because it will cool the solution slightly and reduce the evaporation and heat loss due to phase change.

Related to the second one, those reuseable ‘cooling rocks’ that are sold to cool drinks instead of using ice? Total crock. The phase change of ice melting is what really cools a drink. Obviously created by a marketer and not an engineer.

#71 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 1:15 am

Re: Shawn Allen and coffee question

I’ll amend my answer to factor in the heterogeneous solution: put the cream in immediately, because it creates a solution which will have a higher heat of evaporation than plain coffee. Then the cream will both cool the coffee and reduce evaporation more because of the higher heat required.

#72 Nonplused on 11.28.19 at 1:21 am

#24 Sail away

No affect on the lake if you throw the rock out of the boat into the water. You did not provide the true answer as one of the options. Even Brilliant.com does better than that. At least one of their answers is always true.

#73 Nonplused on 11.28.19 at 1:25 am

#52 45north

Now that I think about it, your answer is correct once the rock hits the bottom and is supported by land rather than buoyancy. Either way it’s a silly question because nobody throws rocks out of boats.

#74 Russ on 11.28.19 at 1:26 am

Sail away on 11.27.19 at 6:27 pm

Nice to see we’re becoming an engineering blog.

Three principles of engineering:
1. F=m*a
2. Shit flows downhill
3. You can’t push a rope

And the overriding design theme: When in doubt, make it stout.

Finally, a brainteaser:
You are floating on a pond in a boat. In the boat with you is a rock. If you drop the rock overboard, will the level of the pond rise or fall? Why?

Good luck.
============================

Classic trick question as it doesn’t present the real answer.

the displacement of the rock in the boat equals the displacement of the rock in the lake.
No change.

So, a few sailors are on a boat with a free case of beer. After finishing the beer they all piss overboard.

Does the level of the lake rise or fall?

How many fall over the side?

Who paid for the beer?

Cheers, R

#75 Dr V on 11.28.19 at 1:32 am

56 Dutchy

“Just saying:
Vancouver has the lowest property taxes in North-America.”

Maybe try readin’ instead of sayin’. The article
says “lowest tax rates”.

Been discussed here often. The cities determine their budget needs, then work backwards to calculate the tax rate from the total assessments.

#76 Smoking Man on 11.28.19 at 1:40 am

Why is Canada not getting paid by the UN for all the hard work our trees do…

Climate Change is a scam. Designed to transfer wealth to the 3rd world, 3rd world won’t see a dime. Criminals and the deap state will get it all.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/canada-may-already-be-carbon-neutral-so-why-are-we-keeping-it-a-secret

Tell T2 to stop taxing Canadians and demand other co2 emiters to write checks to Canada.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics..

#77 Stan Brooks on 11.28.19 at 2:46 am

Immigrants from Hong Kong already came to Canada at the end of the last century. They ‘drove’ the housing market to 25 % of current valuations, a house worth 250 k in GTA, 350 k in Vancouver.

The recent immigration is mostly from relatively poor overpopulated Asian Countries, that excludes even China. There are no rich people coming from these countries, mostly poor immigrants who can hardly make ends meet renting, this immigration is not driving
pressure to the housing market and can not justify valuations of 1.5 – 2 millions for a shack, 1 million for a condo.

Well off people are better even in these countries, it is better to be a doctor in India than driving taxi/if lucky in Toronto.

It is all carefully over-engineered mass-hysteria and FOMO, propaganda by special interest groups – builders, lenders, real estate cartels, corrupted media with the support of government with intent to first boost ‘confidence in economy’, boost spending, consumption and then tax it.

A strategy supported by all means possible including ‘insurance’ of uber-sub-primes to the tune of 1 trillion out of 1.6 trillion total mortgages (+ additional 200 Billion HELOC).

Productivity at the same time has dramatically declined and the ONLY thing holding the whole Ponzi scheme together was the ever-increasing debt orgy.

Now the hope for the debt growth to continue with poor immigrants who need 50 net yearly incomes to get a new condo and then start paying property taxes and maintenance on top of the mortgage of course will miserably fail.

Attempts to further squeeze water out of a stone will be futile.

In the meantime the mass exodus from the ultra-expensive but with miserable quality of life big cities will only accelerate and the amount of people leaving could potentially close on and even exceed the amount of new immigrants, with the corresponding capital outflows.

Capital controls will be in place to prevent that in 5-10 years time frame you won’t be able to take your money out without ‘permission’.

In the mean time taxes will only rise at all levels.

There is no underlying economy to support this credit boom. Normal mortgage debt is probably 1/3 of the current.

#78 Jenny Wang on 11.28.19 at 5:00 am

Yup, I concur. The Boomer real estate bust will get a cap in the ass at some point, just not now. Most late Boomers are just turning 65, healthier than any generation proceeding, and sadly healthier than a broad cross section of Millenials. So, just as Dr David Foot called it, but got the dates wrong, the times they are a changing. But between you and me and the super for late Boomers, the housing crash will likely not happen until the Boomer Bump goes into the ground. Boomers turning 64 will live at least another 20 years or more. The call for my death is premature.

Reverse mortgages, the alligator in the basement. Because of greater longevity the house title will pass directly to the lender. These loans will eat up all the equity. Mills can forget about any inheritance from the parents homes. So, when Mom calls and says she’s taken out a RM so she finally go to Italy, it’s not a day for celebration.

Don’t forget the small print in a RM, maintenance, paint, yard work, eave troughs, new roof as scheduled, furnace, floor, window upgrades. It’s worse than a car lease return when you find out the contract stipulates new tires, brakes, timing chain etc etc etc, costing you thousands more. The lender can decide to foreclose at any time. And, if Mom’s poor and has spent the money, where does the added maintenance money come from? Where will Mom go when she gets foreclosed on because she cant afford the new roof? She loses the house and you get Mom, if you’re a Sandwich household.

I think the day those RM go underwater is the day they start foreclose processes. “Stay in the house as long as you live” might start sounding like “Freedom 55, hollow.

#79 Steve French on 11.28.19 at 6:18 am

“Sell the house. Sell the car. Sell the kids. Find someone else. Forget it. I’m never coming back!! Forget it!!”

#80 Bdwy on 11.28.19 at 6:22 am

car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?.
………….

7.462598 radians/s , of course!

#81 Alpha on 11.28.19 at 7:51 am

Dear and all knowing Garth.
Can you please post references to the study about
“70% of the sales in a hot area of Toronto went to buyers who paid less than asking”

Many thanks

Mr. Google can help. – Garth

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.28.19 at 7:54 am

@72 Don
“Former news anchor Mr. Bill Good is one voice that comes to mind in BC. He is retired and I guess he appeals to his age group as they (somewhat) trusted him as a news anchor prior to the internet taking off.”
++++
Bill Good appeals to his age group?
Bloviating Bill was axed from his tv “news reading” spot because he was seen as a boring “has been” by mostly boomer viewers.
He then moved to radio where he became a BC Liberal shill and lickspittle.
His pandering, pro Christy Clark fawning, became such an embarrassing ratings downer even pro BC Liberal CKNW management couldnt handle him any more….and he was mercifully ……axed.
Now?
He’s reduced to shilling radio ads for HELOCS for high interest money lenders….
I guess he still has a mortgage to pay.

#83 Renter's Revenge! on 11.28.19 at 8:04 am

What’s the difference between a seal and a sea lion?

An electron.

#84 Re-Cowtown on 11.28.19 at 8:08 am

#192 SunShowers on 11.27.19 at 10:25 am

Here’s the same logarithmic relationship, but plotted properly.
https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I read the article. Word salad and confirmation bias. Nothing more. The author overlies a second unrelated data set onto the primary data set to force the answer that he’s looking for. Totally meaninless.

It’s like the author started with a picture of Michael Jackson, ran it through a facial morph computer program and turned Michael Jackson into Miss Piggy. This morphed photo then becomes the authors evidence that Miss Piggy actually wrote and performed “Beat It”. Makes no sense whatsoever.

If anything, the article supported and agrees with my original statement that the logarithmic nature of CO2 heat trapping makes it such a weak greenhouse gas that it is impossible for CO2 to cause runaway warming.

#85 Phylis on 11.28.19 at 8:10 am

Negligibly lower. Negligibly sooner. Depends on the frame of reference. -some will get this.

#86 NoName on 11.28.19 at 8:12 am

#83 Bdwy on 11.28.19 at 6:22 am
car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?.
………….

7.462598 radians/s , of course!

You should answer that in minutes of arc…

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.28.19 at 8:15 am

Civil war looming in Iraq?
Only Iran knows for sure…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-protests/iraqi-forces-kill-28-protesters-after-iranian-consulate-torched-idUSKBN1Y20WX

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.28.19 at 8:28 am

@#82 Steve Francais
““Sell the house. Sell the car. Sell the kids. Find someone else. Forget it. I’m never coming back!! Forget it!!”
+++++

The better line in that movie.

“You’re an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill…”

#89 not 1st on 11.28.19 at 8:39 am

Funny Garth hasn’t talked about the real black swan event staring us in the face.

If China cracks down on HK, they will be booted from WTO and trade with USA and EU will come to a grinding halt.

That would give the economy a pretty good kick you know where. Canada would be roadkill.

#90 Tony on 11.28.19 at 8:50 am

Re: #81 Jenny Wang on 11.28.19 at 5:00 am

Negative interest rates Canada pension plan cuts and the end of the stock market ponzi will mean debt will be passed on to the next generation instead of any wealth transfer.

#91 Re-Cowtown on 11.28.19 at 8:51 am

#86 Re-Cowtown on 11.28.19 at 8:08 am
#192 SunShowers on 11.27.19 at 10:25 am

Here’s the same logarithmic relationship, but plotted properly.
https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

More garbage from the article. The author assumes that CO2 stays in the atmosphere and just accumulates using some unsupported and illusory half life calculation that we’re all expected to take at face value.

What is interesting is that old research (pre Global Warming hysteria when scientists had no dog in the hunt and published their results without worrying about politics) puts CO2 cycle time at 8-12 years in the atmosphere. This means that CO2 gets scrubbed out of the atmosphere by natural processes over a very short time, so short term fluctuations don’t mean a lot. And are definitey not dangerous.

But a CO2 quick scrub process doesn’t work in the IPCC computer models. They need a CO2 residence time of 100+ years for their computer models to support climate hysteria. So guess what happens next? You know it!

Recent climate researchers (who now HAVE a great big dog in the hunt and are paid by political masters) have magically increased CO2 cycle time from 10 years to 100+ years to fit with what the IPCC needs to promote their agenda. You really do get what you pay for.

But it still all boils down to gross misconduct and torturing of data to get a pre-determined result to support climate hysteria.

The article you found is probably one of the best examples of everything that is wrong with climate science today. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

#92 NoName on 11.28.19 at 9:15 am

fight the flue by eating meat

The ketogenic diet — which for people includes meat, fish, poultry, and non-starchy vegetables — activates a subset of T cells in the lungs not previously associated with the immune system’s response to influenza, enhancing mucus production from airway cells that can effectively trap the virus, the researchers report.

https://news.yale.edu/2019/11/15/ketogenic-diet-helps-tame-flu-virus

#93 Stone Walker on 11.28.19 at 9:21 am

Haven’t stopped in here for ages. Good post, but #1yvr_lurker – You stole my comment! lol. exactly what I was thinking while reading. So many wealthy people coming to Canada pricing Us out of the market and there’s no end in sight. Even with Canadian citizens producing less offspring, the population will continue to grow by being subsidized with immigration. I personally know people in the process of coming here now from Europe. Seems like everyone there want’s to get out of the congested countries and out to where there’s not 10 people per square foot, and with the euro and pound worth way more than the North American Peso, it only makes sense to invade Canada. Friend just went to New Zealand lately, interested in immigrating himself, got a rude awakening when he found out how hard it is if your not a rich professional, plenty of Chinese that are doing it though and outnumber natives. This won’t change anytime soon. What will change markets, and everything else, is the move to a new world currency and reset. The East is already moving away from the USD, trading oil in Yuan, has a central bank. It’s only a matter of time now, and we’re overdue for a currency reset.

#94 high school physics on 11.28.19 at 9:34 am

Here’s a mental exercise to help people with the “rock” question.

Imagine you are sitting in a boat displacing water and thereby raising the water level in a lake. I hand you a 50 lb iron bar, take it back, and then hand you a 50 lb red clay brick (which is of course much larger than the 50 lb iron bar). I think you would agree that the water level goes up the same amount in both cases?

Next you throw the smaller iron bar into the lake, take it out, and throw the larger red clay brick into the lake. Both weigh 50 lbs but observe that the water level goes up more for the physically larger brick than for the iron bar.

Does that help?

#95 Dups on 11.28.19 at 9:36 am

After the rain tax, there will be the air we breathe and exhale tax. If you have extra large lungs, oh more tax for you…

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.28.19 at 9:43 am

@#93 Tony
“….and the end of the stock market ponzi …..”
++++++

Sooooo, it would be safe to assume your not an investor?

#97 Mark Stevenson on 11.28.19 at 10:11 am

I’ve been lurking here for a while and, as wrinkly in training, am a connoisseur of political history. I’ve seen where a small vocal minority can justify draconian punishments for those that disagree with there delusions. I see the early stages in west of this shift in power to dangerous, angry groups and wonder about the reasonable, educated person living in times of turmoil: do you fight Lenin, Mao, Pol Pot, Duvalier, Pinochet, Franco, Robespierre, etc. or do you flee and when do you choose? If the state chooses, the state can take everything you have. You can batten down the hatches and hope someone else picks up the sword but you would end up being one of the reasonables of Romeo Dallaire’s nightmares. When do reasonable people become unreasonable and fight back ..or when do they leave?…asking for a friend

#98 Sentinel on 11.28.19 at 10:15 am

Garth,

please review – #67 Lily on 11.27.19 at 11:14 pm
Think it needs to be DELETED asap.

Yes, missed it. Now gone. – Garth

#99 Mattl on 11.28.19 at 10:16 am

Garth I don’t necessarily disagree with your rants against RE ownership. But I see lots of issues with long term renting. Rents have been going up fairly dramatically the past decade. What is someone going to need to save, to rent a SFH in a decent city in Canada in 2030-2050? Have to figure 4-6K for a decent place (this is what Kelowna costs today!). So a long term renter will need to have what, 1MM in savings just stacked against their rental costs.

I know people will jump in now and talk about all the cheap rentals in 3rd world countries, or how you can live above a barn in North Dakota for peanuts. But some of will want to wind it down in nice communities, with good services, near family. Renting is these places today is incredibly expensive. Unless that changes, long term renting could be real problematic for middle class Canadians that are having a hard time saving today. Most renters will not be the ones featured on this blog, those 40 yo’s with 3MM liquid. They will have, maybe, 600k-2mm.

Housing – pay now, or pay later. If most Canadians aren’t saving – and that includes renters – maybe home ownership is the only thing that will save most.

#100 the Jaguar on 11.28.19 at 10:26 am

Still thinking about the big tax hike in Vantown and environs… Hmmm. I guess if you have a situation where city assessment values are significantly higher ( I am talking as much as 500,000 in some parts of the lower mainland, i.e. West Van) than what sales prices support, then you have a revenue problem. City can’t keep over assessing the property value to get $$$, but they still need the revenues.
It’s a vicious cycle this gas bag real estate thingy…..

#101 IHCTD9 on 11.28.19 at 10:35 am

Too many tricky math questions for me!

Let’s try something philosophical:

True or False:

“A man does not pay for sex, he pays her to leave afterwards.”

#102 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 10:41 am

#76 Nonplused on 11.28.19 at 1:25 am
#52 45north

Now that I think about it, your answer is correct once the rock hits the bottom and is supported by land rather than buoyancy. Either way it’s a silly question because nobody throws rocks out of boats.

————————————-

Support from the bottom is irrelevant since the mudline is saturated and buoyancy unchanged whether the rock is dropping or resting on bottom. Maybe we’ll do a buoyancy or liquefaction question in a few days…

#103 Not Gonna Happen on 11.28.19 at 10:51 am

Boomers all selling their homes in a concurrent frenzy? Nah sorry not gonna happen. Just like the the usual suspects including this blog incorrectly predicted years ago that the current wrinkles would flood the market. Didn’t happen either. 75-85 year olds still living in 3000 square foot homes everywhere.

At any rate, telling a millennial who’s already pushing 40, that houses jusssst might be more affordable (whatever that means) in 20 years, isn’t exactly a source of comfort. I’m the forgotten Gen X (thankfully relatively fortunate) and can openly admit that the vast majority of those under the age of 40 are royally screwed when it comes to living in major cities in the frozen north. Years ago, I thought there was hope. Globalism has sealed their fate.

Nobody, anywhere, predicted a massive Boomer sell-off. It only takes a fraction of that demographic to skew supply. And that will certainly occur. More reason not to put all your net worth in real estate. – Garth

#104 Think about it on 11.28.19 at 11:01 am

#83 Bdwy on 11.28.19 at 6:22 am

car is traveling down the highway at 60 miles per hour. How fast is the bottom of the tires moving and can you explain your answer?.
………….

7.462598 radians/s , of course!
……….

Zero…. unless the wheel is slipping

#105 Shawn Allen on 11.28.19 at 11:24 am

Practical Engineering Questions:

Sail Away at 73 and 74 responded:

Let’s see:

Assuming the car is not skidding or burning rubber, the bottom of the tires would not be moving relative to the road. The tires maintain full traction from the weight of the car and friction factor between the rubber and the road.

******Shawn’s response: Correct, the bottom of the tire is not moving as it rolls over the road and the explanation that this must be the case since the road is not moving and the tire is no slipping is correct.

Second… hmmm… conduction and convection, no phase changes except the coffee steaming. I’d say pour the cream in immediately because it will cool the solution slightly and reduce the evaporation and heat loss due to phase change.

Related to the second one, those reuseable ‘cooling rocks’ that are sold to cool drinks instead of using ice? Total crock. The phase change of ice melting is what really cools a drink. Obviously created by a marketer and not an engineer.

*** Shawn’s response: That sounds 100% correct and I had not thought of it. Thank you for the education / reminder.

#74 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 1:15 am
Re: Shawn Allen and coffee question

I’ll amend my answer to factor in the heterogeneous solution: put the cream in immediately, because it creates a solution which will have a higher heat of evaporation than plain coffee. Then the cream will both cool the coffee and reduce evaporation more because of the higher heat required.

****Shawn’s response. In real life, absolutely put the cream in first if you want to keep the coffee hot. It cools way faster if you wait and put the cream in a bit later.

I had that question on a final exam years ago and never got to see the correct and best answer.

Phase change is a very good point.

My first thought was that the colder cream and hot coffee need to equalize in temperature. But that impact should not change very much in two minutes.

Second a hot object or liquid loses heat to its cooler surroundings at a rate proportional to the square of the temperature difference. I think that is totally aside from any phase change/evaporation. So hot coffee is losing heat much faster just before it is cooled somewhat by the cream and then starts losing heat more slowly. I think this is the main impact. But a lower level of phase change is I guess a second reason.

On rocks in boats. I got that wrong. I was thinking about volume but then said water level unchanged. Sail Away and a few others corrected that one. Volume based displacement once in water less than weight-based displacement while rock was in boat.

#106 Yukon Elvis on 11.28.19 at 11:26 am

The Canadian Press – Nov 27, 2019 / 7:30 pm | Story: 271463
The City of Vancouver will be raising its empty homes tax by 25 per cent for each of the next three years in an effort to tackle a crisis in the lack of long-term rental housing.
Mayor Kennedy Stewart says he has directed staff to use additional revenue from the tax hike starting in 2020 to strengthen efforts to provide affordable housing for households with an annual income of less than $50,000.
The city says the empty homes tax has generated $39.7 million in net revenue since it was launched in 2016 to fund affordable housing initiatives for tenants who face a vacancy rate that is less than one per cent.In February, the city said statistics from 2018 showed the number of vacant properties had fallen by 15 per cent in one year and just over half of those previously empty homes had been returned to the rental market.The city says other efforts aimed at helping renters include the opening of a community-based Renter Centre in 2021 so key organizations providing supports, education and legal advocacy can be located in one place.Vancouver’s empty homes tax is the first of its kind in North America.

#107 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 11.28.19 at 11:56 am

#20 Stan Brooks on 11.26.19 at 5:08 pm

“I can smell the coming carbon tax on individual residences – glass condos, cornflakes homes with poor insulation.The rich homeowners/millionaires living in those should pay their fair share of taxes.”

Hey you forgot to include your cardboard home under the Gardiner Expressway Stanley….

#108 Not Gonna Happen on 11.28.19 at 12:05 pm

Nobody, anywhere, predicted a massive Boomer sell-off. It only takes a fraction of that demographic to skew supply. And that will certainly occur. More reason not to put all your net worth in real estate. – Garth

Sorry Garth but this will be a non event in my opinion, not with so much population growth and reckless lending. Real estate in Canada needs to crash and hard for any of this to make sense and I don’t know what it will take to make that happen. I’m more than happy to sacrifice my paper equity to live in a far more affordable country. No eggs for that basket when 2/3 of the population is barely getting by with no end in sight.

#109 Sail away on 11.28.19 at 12:06 pm

Re: engineering

Yeah, I’m a lot of fun at a party. One reason I enjoy the markets is because they’re so randomly illogical. Sometimes they make sense and sometimes act totally batshit crazy…

#110 Blog Bunny on 11.28.19 at 12:13 pm

I tried to convince my parents to sell their house. Not gonna happen. They love it and will die in it. Fair enough.

But me and my brother are 100% liquid and free. We can move anytime anywhere we want. Add to this a FIRE portfolio and the feeling is amazing. It is not about money, but freedom. My only ties are the bunnies. They hate moving.

#111 Dharma Bum on 11.28.19 at 12:21 pm

The next phase of the residential real estate market in Toronto is that the majority of properties owned by seniors will be rezoned as burial grounds so the wrinklies never have to leave and their houses will be converted into crypts.

Problem solved.

Happy US Thanksgiving.

#112 IHCTD9 on 11.28.19 at 12:24 pm

#97 high school physics on 11.28.19 at 9:34 am
Here’s a mental exercise to help people with the “rock” question.

Imagine you are sitting in a boat displacing water and thereby raising the water level in a lake. I hand you a 50 lb iron bar, take it back, and then hand you a 50 lb red clay brick (which is of course much larger than the 50 lb iron bar). I think you would agree that the water level goes up the same amount in both cases?

Next you throw the smaller iron bar into the lake, take it out, and throw the larger red clay brick into the lake. Both weigh 50 lbs but observe that the water level goes up more for the physically larger brick than for the iron bar.

Does that help?
__

Great explanation!

#113 Sail away on 11.28.19 at 12:25 pm

The fact that water- strangely, illogically and anomalously when compared to other liquids- expands and floats when it freezes, allows all life as we know it to exist.

If water acted like other elements, earth’s waters would be a solid frozen ball.

#114 IHCTD9 on 11.28.19 at 12:31 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-home-auction-1.5375493

Spin the wheel…

#115 Dutchy on 11.28.19 at 12:31 pm

#78
Try paying…

Sisters residence sold recently in LML.
Assessed value over $1M
My home Montreal island assessed value $0.5M
Residential taxes paid about the same.

#116 James on 11.28.19 at 12:34 pm

#106 Not Gonna Happen on 11.28.19 at 10:51 am

Boomers all selling their homes in a concurrent frenzy? Nah sorry not gonna happen. Just like the the usual suspects including this blog incorrectly predicted years ago that the current wrinkles would flood the market. Didn’t happen either. 75-85 year olds still living in 3000 square foot homes everywhere.

At any rate, telling a millennial who’s already pushing 40, that houses jusssst might be more affordable (whatever that means) in 20 years, isn’t exactly a source of comfort. I’m the forgotten Gen X (thankfully relatively fortunate) and can openly admit that the vast majority of those under the age of 40 are royally screwed when it comes to living in major cities in the frozen north. Years ago, I thought there was hope. Globalism has sealed their fate.

Nobody, anywhere, predicted a massive Boomer sell-off. It only takes a fraction of that demographic to skew supply. And that will certainly occur. More reason not to put all your net worth in real estate. – Garth
________________________________ ___________
Agreed my parents, all of my aunts & uncles, my wife’s parents and her aunts & uncles are not moving into a high rise slab of concrete just to stare at four walls as they slowly die. They all want to enjoy their freedom and green grass to the end. More and more boomers don’t want the condo crap with the hassles and ridiculous rules as well as the lack of enforcement on rules that are important. I have not run into a single boomer in the last 5 years with the plan of leaving their homes. So get used to high prices for the next twenty-five years.

#117 James on 11.28.19 at 12:42 pm

#108 Shawn Allen on 11.28.19 at 11:24 am

Practical Engineering Questions:

Sail Away at 73 and 74 responded:

Let’s see:

Assuming the car is not skidding or burning rubber, the bottom of the tires would not be moving relative to the road. The tires maintain full traction from the weight of the car and friction factor between the rubber and the road.

******Shawn’s response: Correct, the bottom of the tire is not moving as it rolls over the road and the explanation that this must be the case since the road is not moving and the tire is no slipping is correct.

Second… hmmm… conduction and convection, no phase changes except the coffee steaming. I’d say pour the cream in immediately because it will cool the solution slightly and reduce the evaporation and heat loss due to phase change.

Related to the second one, those reuseable ‘cooling rocks’ that are sold to cool drinks instead of using ice? Total crock. The phase change of ice melting is what really cools a drink. Obviously created by a marketer and not an engineer.

*** Shawn’s response: That sounds 100% correct and I had not thought of it. Thank you for the education / reminder.

#74 Sail Away on 11.28.19 at 1:15 am
Re: Shawn Allen and coffee question

I’ll amend my answer to factor in the heterogeneous solution: put the cream in immediately, because it creates a solution which will have a higher heat of evaporation than plain coffee. Then the cream will both cool the coffee and reduce evaporation more because of the higher heat required.

****Shawn’s response. In real life, absolutely put the cream in first if you want to keep the coffee hot. It cools way faster if you wait and put the cream in a bit later.

I had that question on a final exam years ago and never got to see the correct and best answer.

Phase change is a very good point.

My first thought was that the colder cream and hot coffee need to equalize in temperature. But that impact should not change very much in two minutes.

Second a hot object or liquid loses heat to its cooler surroundings at a rate proportional to the square of the temperature difference. I think that is totally aside from any phase change/evaporation. So hot coffee is losing heat much faster just before it is cooled somewhat by the cream and then starts losing heat more slowly. I think this is the main impact. But a lower level of phase change is I guess a second reason.

On rocks in boats. I got that wrong. I was thinking about volume but then said water level unchanged. Sail Away and a few others corrected that one. Volume based displacement once in water less than weight-based displacement while rock was in boat.
_________________________________________
I was not aware that so many P.Eng’s were such studious investors here. My first grasp of buoyancy was
Archimedes’ principle. Then direct into Bernoulli’s principle. I still dislike fluid dynamics with the exception of lift force on an airfoil where I could actually use it.

#118 DON on 11.28.19 at 12:56 pm

@#85 crowded

Thanks for finishing the thought…totally in agreement. Get the ptsd when i type christy’s name. Mr. Not so Good is happily raking in the ad money though. I think he owns a waterfront house in west van.

No strike eh. I still don’t think many can last financially on the strike line…including teachers who regardless of their job security are also spending accordingly.

#119 PastThePeak on 11.28.19 at 1:32 pm

#18 Figure it Out on 11.27.19 at 5:51 pm
“Here’s another Ottawa op-ed hit piece softening up the general public to accept a Canadian eligible dividend tax credit overhaul this time”

Messing with the dividend tax credit, affecting older, richer voters who vote and donate in disproportionately high numbers is one thing that won’t be on the agenda of any minority government. That’s the kind of thing you do at the beginning of your term if you’ve got a big majority.

Tax reform is something often talked about but rarely done. Rarer still that it makes the capitalist class worse off.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Changing the dividend tax credit is unlikely to be considered major reform by this government. They have a strong minority and the NDP will back them in this without question. They will likely gamble that the majority that vote for them don’t care – it will be a non-issue at the next election.

As for your last statement – it is true that the “truly wealthy” – those say are worth $10M+ that control much of the political system – will not “allow” changes that affect themselves much. Hence why Wild Bill was all about changes to the smaller private corps.

But they are all in on changes that affect the 1% through to the 0.1%. Hence the first action by Trudeau last time was to increase the top marginal federal rate from 29 to 33%, moving the top total marginal in many provinces to ~54%.

This doesn’t really affect the wealthy (0.1%) as most of their money is shielded through complex tax arrangements. Sure screws over the doctors, engineers, lawyers, and small businesses that take salary. Similar result to changing the dividend credit – the rich will have a way around, the upper middle class with investments for retirement – not so much.

#120 yvr_lurker on 11.28.19 at 2:16 pm

#121 Past the Peak

But they are all in on changes that affect the 1% through to the 0.1%. Hence the first action by Trudeau last time was to increase the top marginal federal rate from 29 to 33%, moving the top total marginal in many provinces to ~54%.

This doesn’t really affect the wealthy (0.1%) as most of their money is shielded through complex tax arrangements. Sure screws over the doctors, engineers, lawyers, and small businesses that take salary. Similar result to changing the dividend credit – the rich will have a way around, the upper middle class with investments for retirement – not so much.

——————

Exactly the problem what I have been harping on. Super easy just to increase the marginal tax rate on high wage earners. Not much they can do to shield anything. Makes it harder to make a transition between “working class” to “upper middle class” in ones lifetime if you are taxed to the bone when trying to get ahead. As people here have commented, once you have a minimum of 1million in invested assets, it is much easier to go for 2M by all sorts of strategies to minimize tax on the growth. It is getting to the first million that is the trickier part if you are taxed to the max on your high income…

#121 Yukon Elvis on 11.28.19 at 2:23 pm

I am here to speak on behalf of the fish. Stop throwing all that sh*t in the lake. You are making a mess.

#122 Jesse on 11.28.19 at 2:41 pm

#21 Not 1st on 11.27.19 at 6:14 pm

Those carbon tax loving millennial’s have no idea what they voted for. Likely their own economic enslavement. But I hear the edibles are awesome.

*****************************

This what happens when you raise/brainwash a generation with a modern, liberal education with too much leisure. Millennials were given a great education in one of the freest countries in the world, who still manage to be chronically ungrateful and perpetually offended by anything that doesn’t match their idea of a perfect world.

#123 Doug in Londinium on 11.28.19 at 2:53 pm

Great news for potential buyers. Back in the 1990s David Foot predicted this increased selling of Boomer’s houses in his book Boom, Bust and Echo. So far it hasn’t happened, but possibly it still could. The problem is that when houses FINALLY become within sight of being affordable governments will tamper with good old fashioned highly reliable market forces again to try and sustain the bubble. Then again, if this increase in listings comes just in time for a recession houses could finally become affordable again. Let’s see, when did that last happen? Wasn’t Cleopatra still Queen of Egypt?

On a different note, Happy Thanksgiving to all you Americans out there.

#124 Rexx Rock on 11.28.19 at 2:55 pm

# Stan Brooks

Nice comment,explained and written very well.Yes the high taxes and high cost of living is effecting everyone’s lives who are low or middle income.The government and central bank is the culprit.Retirement is very scary for the average person because they refuse to live in a much cheaper city or another country.If you can travel around Canada or the world to find a more affordable living environment.Its sad but a reality.

#125 MF on 11.28.19 at 3:10 pm

124 Jesse on 11.28.19 at 2:41 pm

Just lol at this comment.

Stereotype? Check
Sweeping generalization? Check
Scapegoating? Check

You sound awfully like the silent generation complaining about these idiot hippie kids with their bell bottoms and flannel.

Them: we fought and died for their freedom and gave them a life of leisure, and they get brainwashed by flower power and are ruining everything!

MF

#126 Jesse on 11.28.19 at 3:22 pm

#129 MF on 11.28.19 at 3:10 pm
124 Jesse on 11.28.19 at 2:41 pm

Just lol at this comment.

Stereotype? Check
Sweeping generalization? Check
Scapegoating? Check

You sound awfully like the silent generation complaining about these idiot hippie kids with their bell bottoms and flannel.

Them: we fought and died for their freedom and gave them a life of leisure, and they get brainwashed by flower power and are ruining everything!

MF

******************************

I’m a millennial, I grew up with these kids….the entitlement is strong with my generation. And yeah…they’re coming for your bank account. These kids want to tax the hell out of the boomers, lot’s of resentment, jealousy and lack of awareness. They saw how good the 60s hippies had it and are mad as hell they didn’t get to experience it.

Also, lots of loneliness/lack of $ex/too much porn….leads to anger and frustration…and then who knows.

#127 NoName on 11.28.19 at 3:47 pm

#119 James on 11.28.19 at 12:42 pm

Haha James is ether pilot in spare time or rocket scientist full time.

Ang if you are glider pilot we would know you ain’t chicken.

Which one is it?

#128 Phylis on 11.28.19 at 3:49 pm

#122 yvr_lurker on 11.28.19 at 2:16 pm old joke goes… making your first million is the most difficult. That’s why I decided to start with the second million.

#129 Don Guillermo on 11.28.19 at 3:52 pm

#124 Jesse on 11.28.19 at 2:41 pm
#21 Not 1st on 11.27.19 at 6:14 pm
Those carbon tax loving millennial’s have no idea what they voted for. Likely their own economic enslavement. But I hear the edibles are awesome.
*****************************
This what happens when you raise/brainwash a generation with a modern, liberal education with too much leisure. Millennials were given a great education in one of the freest countries in the world, who still manage to be chronically ungrateful and perpetually offended by anything that doesn’t match their idea of a perfect world.
********************************************
The world has never been in a better place. All we suffer from now is the following:

– hard times create strong men and women.
– strong men and women create good times.
– good times create weak men and women.
– weak men and women create hard times.
– rinse and repeat!

Don’t recall where I found this but we seem to be on the fourth step.