Not gonna happen

– Christian Vieler photo

Twenty-four years ago this week the Dow breached 5,000 for the first time. Now it flirts with 28,000. Let’s have some context.

For example, remember the dot-com bubble and crash? Tech stocks lost 80% of their value, and for good reason. We went through the Y2K scare. Then the mother of declines in 2008-9 as Bay Street shed 55% of its value, Wall Street banks caved and people freaked.  Rates crashed. In short order there was the 2011 debt ceiling crisis with investors worried the US was running out of money. Stocks tanked. Gold spiked. Then came the Bitcoin bubble/bust, followed by Brexit and Trump. That begat volatility, trade wars, populism and protectionism.

And here we are. Over the last eight years a nicely-balanced portfolio has delivered a 7% return. From 1926 until now a 60/40 portfolio has averaged almost 8%. Returns were positive 85% of the time. There was even a depression. People who put their money in and forgot about it doubled their wealth every decade – despite the fact the world ended fairly regularly.

So far this year middle-of-the-road portfolios are ahead about 12%. The US economy is blooping along steadily. Unemployment’s at a 50-year low. Corporate profits have exceeded expectations. Global trade tensions are easing. Interest rates are on hold. Equity markets are at record levels. Markets think Trump will be re-elected. Brexit will probably fail. Populism’s best days are behind us and the alt right is going down. The world is being reshaped by AI, apps and the Internet of Things. Now rockets land on their bums, everybody’s online and cars drive themselves. Why would we possibly start going backwards?

Yes, debt’s a disease. The climate is unhappy. Porous borders have ignited tribal unrest. Social media fuels the anger of the disadvantaged.

But in the sweep of recent history, this is a gilded time. Let’s hope you’re making the most of it.

Now, what’s next?

CBs give a good clue. The job of central bankers is to keep inflation in check, support the currency and help maintain economic stability. When they worry, pay attention. A good example was in 2008 as these guys chopped the cost of money and flooded the system with liquidity. It worked. In fact central banks around the world now routinely coordinate their monetary policy. The result has been a decade-long expansion amid low inflation, rising global wealth and progress, despite the Kardashians, vaping, Fox News, TikToc, the Amazon, Drake, opioids, Rudy Giuliani, K-pop or Don Cherry.

This week the Bank of Canada dialed back the next rate cut. It’s a big deal. This comes after the US Fed’s decision not to trim the cost of money further, the bond market’s big reversal on yields and the fact nobody’s yakking abut recession or a stumbling economy any more except those trying to justify their investment mistakes and bad calls.

Bank boss Steve Poloz said it clearly: “We think monetary conditions are about right,” and “We’re watching and waiting,” and  “The Canadian economy is in a good place overall.”

As a result, expect no rate cut when the next decision day comes in early December. In fact, no reduction until the Spring. Maybe not then, either. Market odds at the moment are 50-50 for a quarter point drop in March, but that could be wiped away by one Trump tweet on trade news with China.

Says Bay Street analyst Ed Pennock, in writing about recession warnings: “Not going to happen. The US consumer engine is engaged. The tsunami of liquidity injected over the last decade is finally working. Starting to work. It’s the 3rd inning not 9th.”

Really? Ten years of economic expansion, and we’re still rocking. It’s a record. So maybe things are different this time?

Nah. The rules still apply. Those who are invested are doing great. And will continue. Those who have borrowed from the future are taking a big risk. Nothing fundamental has changed. The rich hold assets. The rest hold debt.

A balanced diversified approach has paid off. No flipping individual stocks. No stupid mutual fund fees. No brain-dead GICs or high-interest accounts. Portfolios that contain a variety of safe ETF assets as well as growthy ones. Combine that with smart tax planning – using all available shelters, plus income-splitting – and this is a formula for success. But you need this, too: confidence.

Remember my only piece of advice. Invest whenever you have money. Redeem it when needed. Ignore everything in between. It’s all noise.

 

81 comments ↓

#1 Lost...but not leased on 11.22.19 at 3:20 pm

Phyrrrrzzttd

This post is 100.666% CARBON NEUTRAL

#2 Erick on 11.22.19 at 3:27 pm

Ok but …
Interest rates are negative all over Europe, in Japan … Never happened in the last … years (well, it never ever happened)
How could it not have a devastating impact on the workd economy in the long term
Ever heard of the white paper from IMF dealing with how to implement hugely negative interest rates – like -3%, -4% …

#3 Highlander on 11.22.19 at 3:35 pm

“Remember my only piece of advice. Invest whenever you have money. Redeem it when needed. Ignore everything in between. It’s all noise.”
Amen to that or I suppose A-peoplekind to that :)

#4 Gbiddy on 11.22.19 at 3:35 pm

Anyone else find it odd, and kinda frightening, how so many only celebrate when the “alt right” is seen as going down, but never the “alt left”?

Historically, one gave us Hitler and the concentration camps, the other Stalin and his gulags.

Are we to infer that the “alt left” is somehow preferable, less evil, less vile and less dangerous?

#5 Figure it Out on 11.22.19 at 3:53 pm

I’ve found in general that people are pretty terrible at predicting recessions. They make both type 1 and type 2 errors. Furthermore, I really don’t care whether a recession is coming, I care whether the market changes from thinking one isn’t coming to thinking that one is.

Right now it seems that the financial industry is euphoric. Every asset class has done well so far this year, and PMs are mentally spending their bonuses. Who’s left to buy? I know one group of people who will be selling for the rest of this year — those with retirement funds who have to liquidate a certain percentage before 2020.

I’d appreciate that if someone is quoted giving an opinion about the future, their track record was summarized.

Shall we make that a condition of the comment section? – Garth

#6 TurnerNation on 11.22.19 at 3:56 pm

CBC reports the next four years will see T2 focusing on the climate.
This means, by virtue of government policy and taxation we all are to become Climate Changers.
So, what types of climate changes , and where you would like the climate changed?
What if we do not agree exactly on the changes to be made climate-wise?

I’d suggest you think about this and also ask your kids. All 37 million of us now can change the climate.
Have you considered that the changes we make to climate may be the wrong ones or have concequences unintended?
Looking forward to helping change the climate have a good weekend all. What a grand experiment the government has bestowed upon us citizens

#7 James on 11.22.19 at 4:22 pm

#6 TurnerNation on 11.22.19 at 3:56 pm

CBC reports the next four years will see T2 focusing on the climate.
This means, by virtue of government policy and taxation we all are to become Climate Changers.
So, what types of climate changes , and where you would like the climate changed?
What if we do not agree exactly on the changes to be made climate-wise?

I’d suggest you think about this and also ask your kids. All 37 million of us now can change the climate.
Have you considered that the changes we make to climate may be the wrong ones or have concequences unintended?
Looking forward to helping change the climate have a good weekend all. What a grand experiment the government has bestowed upon us citizens
__________________________________________

We as proud Canadians can all help reduce our greenhouse gas output and prevent the onslaught of evil climate change. For starters Ottawa should lead by example. They can turn off the heat in Parliament in the winter, eliminate the use of carbon burning automobiles and jet aircraft for travel and walk instead. They can take off their clothes and turn off the air-conditioning in the summer. Eliminate their incessant use of computers and cell phones thus saving us Megawatts of electrical energy and while they’re at it do all of their supposed work on the front lawn of Parliament Hill and saving us enormous amounts of energy with free sunshine and at the same time all of those pasty faces get a free tan.
Oh sorry I was just thinking that T2 and his liberal idiot climate force actually want to make a change that matters. Forget it go back to whatever you were doing!

#8 45north on 11.22.19 at 4:24 pm

The world is being reshaped by AI, apps and the Internet of Things. Now rockets land on their bums, everybody’s online and cars drive themselves.

Lorraine Sommerfeld speculates on cars that drive themselves.

What would that SUV have done if it had been deciding the course of action without input from someone like Marciano? Would it have hopped the median and taken out the bad guy?

Marciano drove his SUV over a median to block the bad guy:

https://driving.ca/mercedes-benz/column/lorraine/lorraine-explains-how-much-would-you-risk-to-save-a-strangers-life

autonomous vehicles will never do anything like what Marciano did

Of course not. Why would they? Nor would 99% of the human population. – Garth

#9 Yukon Elvis on 11.22.19 at 4:31 pm

ATLANTA, GA—In this week’s Democratic debate, a wide gap emerged between the candidates as they laid out their competing visions to cripple the country’s economy.
In a crowded field, the Democratic candidates are scrambling to set themselves apart as the one with the most effective plan to crush our economic growth.
Elizabeth Warren claimed to have the most effective plan by far, citing the fact that she would cripple the economy with a $52 trillion Medicare for all plan. Buttigieg quickly fired back, saying he could destroy the nation’s prosperous economic growth in half the time and also reminding everyone that he is a gay man. Cory Booker shouted, “I AM SPARTACUS!” and seemed not to understand what the discussion was about, while Biden argued with him and said that he’s actually Spartacus, appearing to believe himself to be living in the Roman Empire in the First Century B.C.
Kamala Harris had an innovative plan to set herself apart: arrest everybody in the country so nobody can work at all.
Andrew Yang said some stuff too but was bleeped out by network censors.
The runaway winner from the night appeared to be Bernie Sanders, who seemed to have the firmest grasp of the best way to crash an economy, pointing to his lifelong study of Soviet-style communism and other failed socialist states all over the world.
“Sanders is a clear favorite, but let’s not count out Warren or Biden yet,” said one MSNBC commentator after the debate. “In a tight race like this, there are a number of candidates just insane and ignorant of basic economics enough that any one of them could bring this all crumbling to the ground.”
The candidates were also distinguished from one another by exactly how much free stuff each person wanted to give away, with some candidates looking to give away as much free stuff as possible, and others planning to give away just a little bit less than that.
https://babylonbee.com/news/democratic-candidates-clash-over-conflicting-plans-to-destroy-economy

#10 Rick on 11.22.19 at 4:31 pm

You are wrong about Brexit.

#11 The Wet One on 11.22.19 at 4:34 pm

Ok, I’ll bite (why I don’t know, but anyways, I guess I’m bored).

Who’s the alt-left today?

Give me names.

Show me their influence.

Show me their believers in high officer.

Show me the politicians who consider them “good people.”

Also, show me the bodies left in their wake in the last 5 years.

Thanks.

Any and all links would be appreciated.

#12 Political Distribution on 11.22.19 at 5:01 pm

@GBiddy #4:

In our (civil) society, political sentiment is distributed normally (i.e.: on a bell curve). The reason it seems to you that ‘everyone’ cheers the defeat of the ‘alt right’, is because EVERYONE THAT IS NOT in that tiny fraction of a percentage of the population that identifies as ‘alt right’ is against the ‘alt right’.

The majority of the population may not agree on much, but they agree on this, overwhelmingly.

The majority reject extremism on the left as well – nobody wants governments to nationalize private industries, for example. That’s well to the right of the ‘alt left’ that you describe (Stalinism).

But I suspect that you’re so far off the other end of the spectrum, that you can’t see it.

Now go recruit someplace else.

#13 Sail Away on 11.22.19 at 5:03 pm

#9 Yukon Elvis on 11.22.19 at 4:31 pm

ATLANTA, GA—In this week’s Democratic debate, a wide gap emerged between the candidates as they laid out their competing visions to cripple the country’s economy.

——————————

Haha, very good. Luckily in the US, there is someone opposing the destruction. Not much opposition here…

#14 CEW9 on 11.22.19 at 5:24 pm

#12 Figure it Out on 11.22.19 at 4:49 pm

“Shall we make that a condition of the comment section?”

That’d be sweet. I’m up 29.7% off last December’s lows, and currently 25% in cash. But I don’t want to brag… yesterday’s $2mm man got shelled pretty badly.

Yep, why someone would come here to an anonymous comment section to satisfy their need for affirmation and feelings of superiority is beyond me.

Take me for example, I am up 79% since last Tuesday, with over 3 mil. I take all my advice from some guy’s old lady, so that’s why I guess. She’s a prodigy, fer sure.

All jokes aside, I am probably at the bottom of the heap when it comes to invested assets. But I am on the road now, better late than never. I have a balanced plan, and that puts me ahead of the majority of the people I know, but even more important it puts me ahead of where I was a couple of years ago.

So if you are starting to think about it good for you. But if you need to come to the comment section to feed your self esteem, there are other areas of your life you need to work on, too.

#15 Sail away on 11.22.19 at 5:25 pm

#8 45north on 11.22.19 at 4:24 pm

The world is being reshaped by AI, apps and the Internet of Things. Now rockets land on their bums, everybody’s online and cars drive themselves.

————————————

Or, more succinctly: “Elon Musk is the future”

#16 FIRE'd up on 11.22.19 at 5:36 pm

Wow, lots of hostility in the comment section on my post yesterday. Yikes! Jealousy runs rampant here and gets me all FIRE’d up! Here’s how I did it, and no, no inheritance.

Graduated Uni in 2006 and employed soon after with a large corp. Promoted a few times and in 2011 took on a VP role. Continued to work and got my MBA on part-time basis in 2014 (paid for by employer). Then in 2016 promoted to SVP, and now pull in north of $300K in salary. Of course fat bonuses in all that time too.

Worked my f’ing tail off to get to this point. Live frugally, rent, and invest, invest, invest. It ain’t difficult folks. Now get back to work to pay that mortgage!

#17 X on 11.22.19 at 5:41 pm

#4 Gbiddy on 11.22.19 at 3:35 pm

“Anyone else find it odd, and kinda frightening, how so many only celebrate when the “alt right” is seen as going down, but never the “alt left”?

Historically, one gave us Hitler and the concentration camps, the other Stalin and his gulags.”

Interesting take… Some would argue that both, Hitler and Stalin, sprung out of the left. Adolph Hitler – affiliated with National Socialist German Workers’ Party and Stalin – General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Both were responsible for deaths of countless millions.

#18 Sail away on 11.22.19 at 5:42 pm

#5 Figure it Out on 11.22.19 at 3:53 pm

I’d appreciate that if someone is quoted giving an opinion about the future, their track record was summarized.

Shall we make that a condition of the comment section? – Garth

—————————————–

When a prediction is made that interests me, I’ll generally note it down in my spreadsheets with the name and date for future reference.

Guess what?

Doug Rowlands predicted REITs in March- the index has appreciated 7% since, plus divvies

Garth used Boeing as a stock cautionary tale during their 737 troubles in May- it’s up 10% since then

Garth recommended ignoring the noise during December’s troubles: excellent gains since then

Etc… I’ve got them all listed.

#19 Borrow or not on 11.22.19 at 5:42 pm

Hey Garth,

Can you do a piece on borrowing $$$ to invest in the case when your debit is low? I.e. grabbing available LOC $$, that is a low rate – to expand an existing, profitable, balanced portfolio? Thanks!

#20 Debt till depart on 11.22.19 at 5:48 pm

Canadians will have debt till departure day

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/two-in-five-indebted-canadians-don-t-ever-expect-to-escape-debt-says-survey-1.4697565

#21 Rargary on 11.22.19 at 5:51 pm

Truth be told, Confidence is key Garth! Sits alongside “faith” in the smart investing plan!

#22 Sebee on 11.22.19 at 5:55 pm

Are we in a tech bubble or not?

Facebook 560B valuation? Really?

I watched Sacha Baron Cohen ADL speech today and at the end of it concluded that Facebook may simply be an electronic version of National Enquirier, just much more creepy.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 6:01 pm

@#95 Don
“I am not pro union or private sector, lazy people are everywhere. …..

…..And where exactly did you read that i was in support of teachers??? How did you mis innterprey that.

+++++
You should re read what you stated in comment #51
about Unions and striking school teachers in Saanich.
Sounded pretty “pro” to me…..

While I will admit that the population has increased dramatically in the last 20 years, BOTH the NDP and the Liberals have used ICBC as a cash cow over the last 40 years.
Rates will never go down. They are the highest in Canada.
Larger govt employers like Transit, Schools, ICBC, BC Hydro, Health Care, on and on and on have this NDP govt by the short and curlys.

Transit is about to go on strike and neither side is even talking….and Horgan will sit watching until either the striking union membership squeals in financial pain ( 4 weeks) or the enraged public demand action ( 1 week) for what is an essential service for thousands..
Either way Horgan has dropped the ball and will reap the “benefits ” in the next election in about 6 months time…..

#24 Reximus on 11.22.19 at 6:14 pm

#45north

you do know that you can simply commandeer any self driving car….you just grab the steering wheel

#25 Millennial Realist on 11.22.19 at 6:16 pm

#8 45north

The world is being reshaped by AI, apps and the Internet of Things. Now rockets land on their bums, everybody’s online and cars drive themselves.

Lorraine Sommerfeld speculates on cars that drive themselves.

What would that SUV have done if it had been deciding the course of action without input from someone like Marciano? Would it have hopped the median and taken out the bad guy?

Marciano drove his SUV over a median to block the bad guy:

https://driving.ca/mercedes-benz/column/lorraine/lorraine-explains-how-much-would-you-risk-to-save-a-strangers-life

autonomous vehicles will never do anything like what Marciano did

____________________________________________

Your comment is just stupid.

Lorraine is a dope, like her co-hosts on Lemon Aid, always defending the status quo.

Raising the straw man of some highly unlikely ethical issue in driving interactions is silly. Garth is right, almost all drivers would do no better than an AV.

What bozos like you don’t get, is that the 1.35 million deaths each years caused by cars WILL be dramatically reduced due to AV tech.

Probably down to about 10,000 or less once all old cars are gone.

So…a tiny handful of odd situations such as what you reference may still result in deaths.

But at least about a million people will not die every year, thanks to AV cars.

Ok, Boomer!?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

#26 Flop... on 11.22.19 at 6:23 pm

The 2 million guy got rinsed yesterday.

That’s life.

The top of the pops in the U.S earns 63 million a year.

I hope one day to earn 63k a year.

Am I a failure?

Boom and his wife only once pulled in over 100k U.S combined a year and I didn’t consider them to be failures.

They chipped away and had everything they needed and wanted apparently.

Except the happy ending…

M45BC
M64WI

“America’s Soaring Inequality: Income Needed to Be a Top Earner.

Income inequality in the U.S. is the highest it has been in decades. Not only has the gap between the richest and poorest Americans grown over the past few years, but recent IRS data shows that the new threshold for reaching the top 1% of earners in the U.S. has grown to more than half a million dollars. To further illustrate the wide disparity in income levels, our new visualization charts the minimum income needed for each income percentile, from the top 50% to the top 0.001%.

Currently, the combined wealth of the 1% almost surpasses that of the combined wealth of middle-class Americans.

Even after accounting for inflation, the income needed to reach the top 1% of earners increased 7.2% between 2016 and 2017.

At the same time, the wealthy have the greatest tax burden. An analysis from Bloomberg shows that the top 1% earned 21% of the country’s income and paid 38.5% of federal income taxes. By contrast, the bottom 90% of earners paid 29.9% of federal income taxes.

How Much You Need to Earn For the Top Income Percentiles
1. Top 0.001%: $63,430,119
2. Top 0.01%: $12,899,070
3. Top 0.1%: $2,374,937
4. Top 1%: $515,371
5. Top 5%: $208,053
6. Top 10%: $145,135
7. Top 20%: $97,870
8. Top 30%: $72,268
9. Top 40%: $54,672
10. Top 50%: $41,740

Percent of Total Income Earned by Top Income Percentiles

1. Top 0.001%: 2.34% of total income
2. Top 0.01%: 5.17% of total income
3. Top 0.1%: 10.52% of total income
4. Top 1%: 21.04% of total income
5. Top 5%: 36.53% of total income
6. Top 10%: 47.74% of total income
7. Top 20%: 63.21% of total income
8. Top 30%: 74.23% of total income
9. Top 40%: 82.47% of total income
10. Top 50%: 88.75% of total income

Some experts say that inflation has been pressing more and more individuals into the lowest end of the income distribution. This is the current breakdown of four-member households that are considered to live in poverty, based on factors such as age, race, location, and educational attainment.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/breaking-down-income-inequality-us

#27 Will Pay the Employer to work for free on 11.22.19 at 6:27 pm

How can Millenials and Zoomers afford to pay these sky high rents in Toronto if their parents end up in a retirement home and the fathers have divorced the mothers to re-marry in South-East Asia, while using the internet to promote hate and division to make life harder for Millenials and Zoomers?

Many of the Boomers who post hate speech against migrants, post it from the safety of their gated communities in third world countries.

They are hypocrites such as the owner of the blog :-)(cymbal crash)

…..DELETED….BANNED….

#28 Will Pay the Employer to work for free on 11.22.19 at 6:30 pm

Speaking of Brexit:

It’s a form of resistance against the Globalists and becoming insular from Europe and immigration in general, yet the UK wants to install a military base in the Caribbean to topple the Maduro government, while creating more Venezuelan refugees, who would be told by pro-Brexiters to “go back”.

#29 BobC on 11.22.19 at 6:32 pm

Can’t make this stuff up. Guess if you don’t want to spend the Tax money to try to cure the addiction might as well feed it.

https://tnc.news/2019/11/21/trudeau-open-to-funding-heroin-supply-for-addicts-in-vancouver/

#30 GBiddy on 11.22.19 at 6:43 pm

#11 The Wet One

If you’re unable to see your own biases, I’m not gonna help you man. Pull on your big boy pants and open your eyes.

If you can’t see the undeniable truth that alt-left and alt-right are equally vile and should be equally troubling to those who cherish individual rights and freedoms, you’re a lost case. In this country you are in very good company, however.

Sorry you find history so hard to believe, or get so riled when it’s mentioned, as I’m sure you’d prefer people forget history.

So I’ll say it again: the embrace of the alt-left leads directly back to Stalin and his gulags and the ashes of a hundred million people.

The embrace of the alt-right to the goose step and millions more…

#31 John Pfeifer on 11.22.19 at 6:46 pm

“ The result has been a decade-long expansion amid low inflation, rising global wealth and progress, despite the Kardashians, vaping, Fox News, TikToc, the Amazon, Drake, opioids, Rudy Giuliani, K-pop or Don Cherry.”
———————————
As always, love your humour Garth! But you did not mention Adele. Are you softening on us? ;)

#32 GBiddy on 11.22.19 at 6:53 pm

#13 Political Distribution

Rejecting both the alt-left and alt-right would make someone a recruiting agent for what, exactly? Common sense, balance and non-extremism in any form perhaps?

#18 X
Good point, and a historical case can and has been made for Hitler’s left wing leanings.

I may offend modern sensibilities by relying too often on historical evidence, so perhaps a shift to the present?

Venezuela, North Korea, and China are interesting case studies for those espousing neo-Marxist ideology.

Any takers?

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 6:56 pm

@#26 Flop
“I hope one day to earn 63k a year.
Am I a failure?”
+++++

Absolutely not.
And if your saving money for retirement…..you’re ahead of 90% of Canucks.

#34 Nonplused on 11.22.19 at 6:58 pm

“Invest whenever you have money. Redeem it when needed. Ignore everything in between. It’s all noise.”

Great advice, and succinct, especially on the back of Sinan’s story yesterday. I wish I heard it years ago.

Unfortunately for me I have always had an aversion to debt and spending windfalls inspired by my dad going broke in the early 80’s. His debt was mostly for business purposes but when things went bad they went very bad. Strangely it never had the same affect on him and he never lost his appetite for leveraged real estate. So he and his new business partner were out making land development deals when prices were at the lows and everyone was still licking their wounds. It was really the only way a carpenter could get out of the hourly wage routine and he wanted out. It worked. Unfortunately guys like him don’t diversify so I worry about his holdings being all in one sector and mostly all in one town but so far he doesn’t want for money. But as he would say: “You have to dance with the girl that brought you.”

Also he has used a financial adviser before when he had money to park but frankly never trusted finance because he doesn’t understand it. Also it didn’t help that I was always dissing the adviser’s advice. One time he put a big chunk of my dad’s money in Chrysler bonds. Yup, just one asset. I was like: “Dad, the reason the yield is so high is because Chrysler is going bankrupt and nobody knows if those bonds will be honored!” A few years later Chrysler did in fact go bankrupt but fortunately my dad had already sold his bonds and put the money into yet another real estate development, where it stayed.

None of the projects my dad invested in had a particularly great rate of return when looking at just the rent versus the investment, but the magic of being highly leveraged in good commercial real estate in a boom town during the period from say 1985 until today made him and his growing number of business partners wealthy. He couldn’t have done that swinging a hammer.

His story is reminiscent of how many people in the trades get wealthy. Since they aren’t going to get any stock options or be promoted to VP, they are forced into business. Many go broke trying, but the ones that can handle the business side of things can do quite well. That, of course, was not my dad,but he knew this about himself which is why he always partnered with someone more savvy with that side of it while he handled construction. So I would join Mike Row in saying “don’t go to college, learn a trade.” I did go to university, but in STEM. I had no intention of taking something that wasn’t going to pay off my student loans. Even my daughter, who is “artsy”, when she was considering various non-viable degrees, I pushed towards art school with a view to getting a B.Ed. after as plan B. Plan B is now in process. My other daughter is in STEm and dating and engineer. My son is only 13 but when he isn’t playing Minecraft he’s writing scripts in something called Python or Scratch.

So I would say the advice that kids need is this:

“Invest whenever you have money. Redeem it when needed. Ignore everything in between. It’s all noise.” – Garth.

“Don’t go to college, get a trade.” – Mike Row

“You have to dance with the girl that brought you.” – my dad

“Education is career planning, not self fulfillment.” – me

#35 Sail away on 11.22.19 at 7:04 pm

Tesla Cybertruck… hmmm… I might sign up for one. The bed would carry the bird dogs, the frunk the cooler, 4 people, 16″ of clearance, sleep in the back in a pinch, drag F-150s all around the parking lot for fun, maintain steady temp at night for the dogs when on the road (Sept, Oct and Nov can get chilly!).

I like the DeLorean look. And, of course, Tesla is the future.

#36 earthboundmisfit on 11.22.19 at 7:28 pm

“Populism’s best days are behind us and the alt right is going down.”

Methinks the jury remains sequestered on this, Mr. Turner. I do hope you’re right.

#37 Today on 11.22.19 at 7:29 pm

#17 FIRE’d up on 11.22.19 at 5:36 pm

This is exactly why I left the corporate world. VP’s who don’t understand humility or true leadership.

I have seen great leaders lead in a way of making you feel like it’s about you. Obviously a lessen you could learn.

In my experience, some people are dealt a hand of cards that they are lucky to be standing.

Not disconnecting your work but I think many would agree that it’s not actually jealousy. The fact that you think this is the issue is telling.

I applaud you for your success and my hope if you can learn the humility to know bragging doesn’t fill the hole.

Cheers.

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 7:54 pm

@#35 Sail Away

I googled the worst cars in sci fi ….and lo and behold!

https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2018/02/5-best-and-worst-sci-fi-cars.html

Scroll down to the “car” in Timecop and ….ironically enough….the next car is the DeLorean from Back to the Future……

Methinks Tesla’s designers got a little lazy and did an “ugly sci fi car” search……

#39 mj on 11.22.19 at 7:56 pm

if it wasn’t for the feds repo and “not QE,” the economy would be in a lot of trouble. Powell is working for Trump, he is going to do whatever it takes to keep the economy moving until trump is reelected. They just had a meeting and I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump told Powell to keep cutting rates.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 7:58 pm

And there’s always…..

“Johnny Cab”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY

An inspiration for a self driving Tesla truck perhaps?

#41 Sail away on 11.22.19 at 8:11 pm

#17 FIRE’d up on 11.22.19 at 5:36 pm

Wow, lots of hostility in the comment section on my post yesterday. Yikes!

———————————–

Don’t worry about it too much. There’s no qualification needed to write here (heck, I’m here!).

Speaking of insecure a-holes: just the other day, a blogdog gave the procedure to turn in your neighbour to the AirBNB police. I thought for a minute I was reading 1984.

Per Pogo: We have met the enemy and he is us.

#42 Sail away on 11.22.19 at 8:16 pm

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 7:54 pm
@#35 Sail Away

Methinks Tesla’s designers got a little lazy and did an “ugly sci fi car” search……

————————-

Love it. My dogs, shotguns and boats are beautiful. Trucks… never cared – but very functional. The Cybertruck has 16″ clearance!

#43 Shawn Allen on 11.22.19 at 8:21 pm

What does it say about people who get upset about someone bragging a bit about their financial success on this anonymous financial blog?

A truly ignorant comment at 37:

#37 Today on 11.22.19 at 7:29 pm complained:
#17 FIRE’d up on 11.22.19 at 5:36 pm

This is exactly why I left the corporate world. VP’s who don’t understand humility or true leadership.

************************
I don’t think the corporate world misses this person.

Our successful friend at 17 was answering the question that was asked of how he came about having $2 million liquid at age 40.

#44 Drill Baby Drill on 11.22.19 at 8:26 pm

To be dictated and preached to by the Chinese ambassador today is almost too much to bear.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 8:28 pm

@#6 &7 james and turnernation
“CBC reports the next four years will see T2 focusing on the climate.”
++++

bwahahaha.
the CBC hopes and Prays that T2 lasts four years…

Aint….. gonna….. happen.

The minority Liberal govt, the economy , the endless pc drivel spewing forth from our nations capital……nah.
Look around the world.
Minority govts everywhere.
Riots everywhere.
Voters are pissed.

T2’s second term?
12 months tops.

#46 MF on 11.22.19 at 8:31 pm

Sail away on 11.22.19 at 5:42

Awesome. One of the reasons why we all come back, among many others.

We’ve had some real accurate predictions on here since I started reading nearly a decade ago.

A few I remember off the top of my head: REITs in 2015, oil’s and commodities bottom in 2015, preferred shares bottom (a few times). Also BTC, MJ stock tops.
I’d even argue that everything investment related is generally predicted accurately on here.

The only thing they got wrong was re, which is what the entire blog mostly focuses on, ironically. And Trump.

MF

#47 S.Bby on 11.22.19 at 8:57 pm

When people get giddy and brag about their great profits in the markets, it’s time to sell off.

#48 Robert Ash on 11.22.19 at 8:58 pm

My point of view with respect to making Investments, in Maple, is the lack of Common Sense of our Leaders. We have a small group of Idealists, who I believe lack the Business accumen to stear our Economic Ship, and have done the Political research necessary to find an Amorphos issue, to secure Political power, in a country that is completely apathetic Politically… Just look at the Field of Candidates, we put forward as Leaders… Would you join a Business focused, Partnership with any of Trudeau, Singh, May, Scheer, Blanchett?
When a Goverment will focus on Climate Change as the Priority it seems, to me, that there is not a lot of Common Sense, since Climate Change, means, a reduction of the focus on Natural Resource development. Isn’t Canada, a Trading Economy with a huge portion of our GDP based on Energy, Mining, Hydro, etc… So if the whole Political apparatus, is really not business friendly, in the traditional sense, then why would I have a lot of confidence in thier path forward.
So yes, that significanly impacts my Investment planning and Portfolio development. In my own country.

#49 DON on 11.22.19 at 9:06 pm

@#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 6:01 pm

You should re read what you stated in comment #51
about Unions and striking school teachers in Saanich.
Sounded pretty “pro” to me…..
**************

You mean this…

“The teachers are still not getting what they want. The School support workers in Saanich went on strike for three weeks and teachers wouldn’t cross the picket lines – so no school. They just settled, everyone needs to pay their bills and judging by the $200 away from broke stats…no striker will be able to last more than 2-3 weeks. Things have changed, not 2001 anymore. ”

Just merely restating know facts. Judging by all the ‘one paycheque away from not making bills’ stories in the news, most workers won’t be able to strike for much longer than 3 weeks, especially at this time of year. As for the Teachers, don’t worry I expect value out of them.

My oil fields BIL’s mother is a Teacher, who wouldn’t last long on the picket line as she up scaled her house to a farm – just her and a house and still has a big mortgage – she is close to retirement. Had to buy the farm for the horse, the rental stable wasn’t good enough – her dream so let her have it. She basically spends like a drunken sailor (new truck, horse trailer etc) because she has job security or so she thinks.

It is funny though – in good times when private sector wages are rising no one cares about the unions. It”s when ‘we’ fall on rough times that the knives come out.

I know you know that I know that both governments took from ICBC. But the former gov took the lead position on bankrupting ICBC and and all the money that body shops, experts, and lawyers raked in.

On the subject of Coast Mountain/Drivers. I read somewhere this am that Coast Mountain asked for a mediator. I am more interested in the strategies being played out on all fronts than taking any side. I went through the last transit strike in Van, was not fun getting downtown. I had to walk/run/cab.

AND there is nothing wrong with anyone being pro-union. We all could have went that route.

cheers,

#50 tccontrarian on 11.22.19 at 9:07 pm

“Remember my only piece of advice. Invest whenever you have money. Redeem it when needed. Ignore everything in between. It’s all noise.”
– – – – – –

I can’t agree with all of this. Here’s my version which has some overlap, but not entirely:

1. Invest when the odds for gains exceed the odds for losses (aka ‘buy-low, sell-high’).
2. Ignore the ‘noise’ (but you’ve gotta know which is noise and which isn’t!)
3. Don’t ignore when ‘smart-money’ is acting in unusual extremes (ie. either buying with high intensity, or selling similarly)
4. Redeem when funds needed.
5. Cash is a position (aka ‘dry powder’)
6. Avoid being aligned with the herd

tcc

#51 CoveredCall Q on 11.22.19 at 9:39 pm

Garth (or others in the comment section)– would you mind discussing why a covered call strategy (selling covered calls, earning the additional yield, particularly with stocks priced so high currently) is a bad strategy. I understand the “upside risk” in that you could potentially lose out on future gains– but isn’t this a worthwhile risk to “lock in” some gains in the short/medium term. What am I missing? (Or is it a philosophical issue…)

#52 DON on 11.22.19 at 9:40 pm

45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 8:28 pm

@#6 &7 james and turnernation
“CBC reports the next four years will see T2 focusing on the climate.”
++++

bwahahaha.
the CBC hopes and Prays that T2 lasts four years…

Aint….. gonna….. happen.

The minority Liberal govt, the economy , the endless pc drivel spewing forth from our nations capital……nah.
Look around the world.
Minority govts everywhere.
Riots everywhere.
Voters are pissed.

T2’s second term?
12 months tops.
********************

My bet is the NDP needs the national spotlight and are broke so they will not want an election. The bloc – not sure yet, as long as no new pipelines go to Quebec and the transfer payments keep rolling in Quebec may shore him up if the NDP decide not too. He has to be on best behaviour (think Christy Clark and Andrew Weaver holding the cards).

This is Trudeau’s last term in my opinion that is unless the Conservatives fail to go back to their roots and rid themselves of the of the Harper, Scheer, Kenney, Ford influence. Kenney just fired the Election Commissioner who was investigating him and his party and already levied $200,000 in fines. There is an active RCMP investigation, then Kenney went into hiding. He took a trip down south to ask why Encana left in the first place. Can’t make this shit up.

If not Trudeau may win again, unless there is reason for a massive swing vote to one of the remaining political parties. It just takes a progressive leader at the right moment. Just a repeat of history with a different slant.

#53 Phylis on 11.22.19 at 9:44 pm

#47 S.Bby on 11.22.19 at 8:57 pm I’m getting a shoe shine tomorrow, i’ll let you know if he has any tips.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.19 at 9:46 pm

@#49 Don
“AND there is nothing wrong with anyone being pro-union. We all could have went that route.
+++++

Fair enough.
I’m a manager and run a union shop.
Many years ago I was a Union shop steward.
I managed in non union companies as well.
As you have said,you get the good and the bad in the private sector whether its unionized or not.

Dealing with govt employee unions….?
Totally different ball game.
The sense of entitlement is palpable.
You’re dealing with thousands of members in govt institutions that are “bullet proof” .
Thousands of members that can influence govt. decisions
Thousands of members that are:

Unbelievably difficult to fire so managers dont bother…
This sets up an environment of invincibility among the workers.
So you have workers that cant be fired, that have jobs for life, pensions for life, for salaries and and benefits that most in the private sector only dream about.

And we are supposed to “support” them and the NDP lackeys that are in their back pocket?

Do I think the Liberals are any better?
I held my nose and voted NDP in the last election to rid BC of the “Christy Clark regime “… The incompetence was too much to take.

What now?
Who knows…..
But a prolonged bus strike at Christmas?
Only Ebeneezer could come up with something so diabolical.

#55 DON on 11.22.19 at 10:38 pm

#103 IHCTD9 on 11.22.19 at 2:01 pm

No need to complicate things Mr. Don:

I pay 650.00/yr in On.

Fartz pays over TWENTY FOUR HUNDRED DOLLARS in BC.

We are near identical customers.

End of discussion.

If you want to pretend this is just the standard ho-hum, run of the mill difference between rural and metro – be my guest.

FWIW, here is an article where some rural BC’ers say they are getting screwed over by ICBC on car insurance:

https://www.wltribune.com/news/freedom-of-information-campaign-on-rural-vs-urban-icbc-rates/

****************

I read the link you provided.

If I were the former ‘free enterprise’ Mayor who just lost an election I would want to run with something. I would be asking the same question of why residents of two northern BC communities that are close in proximity are paying different rates (small rural village paying $100 more than larger regional city).

The article is dated Feb 11, 2019 so…even before we knew how much the rates would be increased this last September. If you renewed before September you got last years rates. They warned people, multiple times but than again not everyone pays attention of their surroundings.

This whole ICBC good/bad thing is a political match. ICBC used to make a profit and I used to insure both my vehicles year round at $750 each in Vancouver in the early 2000s. It has been hi-jacked by political forces and their privatized donors. ICBC has been looted by both governments but more so by the ones that want it to fail so they can rally the public to sell it to their donors. Same thing happened to the profitable BC Rail.

The banana republic government that was kicked out 3ish years ago is still openly rallying to sell it, that will be their platform. They did the same to BC Hydro, a crown jewel. They put their friends in board positions, management etc. Their business friends create multiple associations all sending out the same messages to sway public opinion. This is all documented.

Now before you impose your “End of Discussion” dogmatic fathering technique…indulge me and read the following. It will only take a minute.

NOVEMBER 17 – 2019.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-auto-insurance-rate-increase-ucp-cap-1.5361492

“Some Alberta drivers are facing increases in car insurance premiums next year, following the provincial government’s decision to lift a five per cent cap on rates.

Edmonton driver Danny Parker, 45, said his insurance with Aviva Insurance will increase by about 25 per cent in 2020.

That means he will pay $1,885 next year, a jump from the $1,350 he paid this year.

“I thought it was BS because I have no tickets, no at-fault accidents on my record,” Parker said. “I pretty much have a clean record and I’m now paying close to $2,000 per year. I think that’s unfair. I don’t understand why I’m paying so much.”

Parker was told by his broker that he isn’t alone. Companies across Alberta are applying to increase their rates following the removal of the cap, he said.

Kim Zook, 36, from Tofield, said his rate went up when he renewed his premiums with Wawanesa Insurance this month.

Zook’s rate jumped from $445 to $790 per year, which averages out to about an extra $30 per month. He said it’s going to be a challenge to cover the extra cost because he is injured, unable to work, and has medical bills to pay. ”

So they lifted the insurance rate caps imposed by the former ‘socialist’ government.

This is happening in Ontario and New Brunswick also. Manitoba still has public insurance and the crown agency is still bring home the meat and potatoes, yet to be hijacked by a ‘free enterprise’ political party.

By the way I am fine with Capitalism but this ‘free enterprise’ is just a political gift to donors at the expense of us non-donors (hard working people). Corruption at it’s best.

One more thing how do you know that you and Crowded have the same driving record?

In one of the other articles I sent you on rates rising in Ontario, the journalist states that there is a different between rural and city rates (as their should be in terms of the Insurance company’s financial risk management)

By the way DON is an acronym much like IHCTD9. No Mr. required.

Cheers,

#56 DON on 11.22.19 at 10:42 pm

#103 IHCTD9 on 11.22.19 at 2:01 pm

No need to complicate things Mr. Don:

I pay 650.00/yr in On.

Fartz pays over TWENTY FOUR HUNDRED DOLLARS in BC.

We are near identical customers.

End of discussion.

If you want to pretend this is just the standard ho-hum, run of the mill difference between rural and metro – be my guest.

FWIW, here is an article where some rural BC’ers say they are getting screwed over by ICBC on car insurance:

https://www.wltribune.com/news/freedom-of-information-campaign-on-rural-vs-urban-icbc-rates/

****************

I read the link you provided.

If I were the former ‘free enterprise’ Mayor who just lost an election I would want to run with something. I would be asking the same question of why residents of two northern BC communities that are close in proximity are paying different rates (small rural village paying $100 more than larger regional city).

The article is dated Feb 11, 2019 so…even before we knew how much the rates would be increased this last September. If you renewed before September you got last years rates. They warned people, multiple times but than again not everyone pays attention of their surroundings.

This whole ICBC good/bad thing is a political match. ICBC used to make a profit and I used to insure both my vehicles year round at $750 each in Vancouver in the early 2000s. It has been hi-jacked by political forces and their privatized donors. ICBC has been looted by both governments but more so by the ones that want it to fail so they can rally the public to sell it to their donors. Same thing happened to the profitable BC Rail.

The banana republic government that was kicked out 3ish years ago is still openly rallying to sell it, that will be their platform. They did the same to BC Hydro, a crown jewel. They put their friends in board positions, management etc. Their business friends create multiple associations all sending out the same messages to sway public opinion. This is all documented.

Now before you impose your “End of Discussion” dogmatic fathering technique…indulge me and read the following. It will only take a minute.

NOVEMBER 17 – 2019.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-auto-insurance-rate-increase-ucp-cap-1.5361492

“Some Alberta drivers are facing increases in car insurance premiums next year, following the provincial government’s decision to lift a five per cent cap on rates.

Edmonton driver Danny Parker, 45, said his insurance with Aviva Insurance will increase by about 25 per cent in 2020.

That means he will pay $1,885 next year, a jump from the $1,350 he paid this year.

“I thought it was BS because I have no tickets, no at-fault accidents on my record,” Parker said. “I pretty much have a clean record and I’m now paying close to $2,000 per year. I think that’s unfair. I don’t understand why I’m paying so much.”

Parker was told by his broker that he isn’t alone. Companies across Alberta are applying to increase their rates following the removal of the cap, he said.

Kim Zook, 36, from Tofield, said his rate went up when he renewed his premiums with Wawanesa Insurance this month.

Zook’s rate jumped from $445 to $790 per year, which averages out to about an extra $30 per month. He said it’s going to be a challenge to cover the extra cost because he is injured, unable to work, and has medical bills to pay. ”

So they lifted the insurance rate caps imposed by the former ‘socialist’ government.

This is happening in Ontario and New Brunswick also. Manitoba still has public insurance and the crown agency is still bring home the meat and potatoes, yet to be hijacked by a ‘free enterprise’ political party.

By the way I am fine with Capitalism but this ‘free enterprise’ is just a political gift to donors at the expense of us non-donors (hard working people). Corruption at it’s best.

One more thing how do you know that you and Crowded have the same driving record?

In one of the other articles I sent you on rates rising in Ontario, the journalist states that there is a different between rural and city rates (as their should be in terms of the Insurance company’s financial risk management)

By the way DON is an acronym much like IHCTD9. No Mr. required.

Cheers,

#57 Sail Away on 11.22.19 at 10:46 pm

Re: Tesla pickup

When I was in the army in the 90’s, we would patrol in the most horrible clayey/rutted terrain, and the Humvees would crawl right through nasty wet clay with their independent suspension and low low range torque. Sometimes one rut would be 4′ lower than the other and almost too slippery to walk through and the Hummer would somehow go right through without high-centering.

The most common mechanical issue was torn boots on the halfshafts letting water/grit into the joints, so a half dozen halfshafts were carried and our mechanic always tried to beat his record for changing one out- then he’d blow it out, soak it in solvent, regrease and reboot if it was still in decent enough shape for reuse. The guy was a magician. He’d have a couple privates along, and would be snoozing on top when they were underneath, and would yell out the next step when they got stuck without them even mentioning it.

The Humvees were ugly and horribly rough on paved roads. Dry desert convoys were awful since all side windows were fabric and nothing sealed in the front, much less the back- thick dust everywhere. Lots of night missions trying to see where we were going in blackout with infrared and night vision goggles. Rock-hard seats. Metal, canvas and kevlar everything with strong diesel small from splashing jerry cans.

I couldn’t believe it when civilian models came out. It turned out they were much more ‘genteel’, but still fairly capable offroad.

The Tesla Cybertruck is definitely ugly, but no uglier than a Humvee. If it’s equally capable, count me in.

#58 DON on 11.22.19 at 10:59 pm

#100 Mattl on 11.22.19 at 1:32 pm

Actually 8.5 million. And mortgage debt is growing faster than the population. It’s not all sunshine & ponies. – Garth

Agreed, there are issues for sure. HELOC growth is concerning.

But just posting 1.6 trillion without the context – which includes a residential market valued at 8.5 trillion – is only a partial picture.
*****************

What are you worried about? Houses can only go up up up!

Forget about the Airbnb regulations coming to a theatre near y (revenue hungry indebted local governments).

Forget about your neighbors helocs. Besides they would tell you if there was a problem with their finances in any event.

Forget that house prices are in peak ranges and unaffordable for local families. Isn’t that why you left the Lower Mainland?

A downturn will never ever ever happen again. Just live your life and have some fun.

#59 DON on 11.22.19 at 11:05 pm

#109 JonBoy on 11.22.19 at 3:59 pm

BC gas prices are high because we buy some higher-priced gas from Washington to make up for the slight lack of gasoline coming from elsewhere in Canada.

That higher-priced gas sets the price for all other suppliers. The Lower Mainland only needs a few thousand extra barrels a day (9000, give or take, I believe) from Canadian sources to drop prices in Vancouver to more reasonable levels.

Some light reading to understand the root cause.

https://achemistinlangley.net/2019/04/29/how-the-ccpa-completely-misses-on-the-root-cause-of-our-elevated-gasoline-prices-in-the-lower-mainland/

We still have the most heavily taxed fuel in Canada but we’re paying a premium on top of that due to a lack of domestic (Canadian) supply.
****************

Thanks for the article I read Blair’s blog once in a while.

Maybe BC can buy all our gas from Washington State and negotiate a better discount on a larger amount? Or buy from somewhere else?

#60 Nonplused on 11.22.19 at 11:43 pm

#8 45north

Settle down #8, true AI and autonomous vehicles are a lo further away than they are saying. Lane assist is not autonomous and it doesn’t work at all if there is snow on the ground.

#61 Not So New guy on 11.22.19 at 11:53 pm

The energy politicians spend to heat their workplaces, for example, should be counted double against them as carbon usage because they get their money from tax dollars. People need to burn carbon to get those tax dollars. Thus the carbon is being burned twice for the same dollar spent to heat political offices

#62 Nonplused on 11.23.19 at 12:08 am

#49 DON

I was having a similar conversation tonight. Now, don’t get me wrong, I think teachers are great, and in good times I am happy to pay my taxes and see them paid appropriately. But since 2014 100,000 people have lost their jobs in Alberta and no longer pay tax. To hear the CBE talk about it, laying off 300 people is the end of the world (most of those positions will not be teachers).

Folks, if Trudeau manages to shut down the private sector in Alberta, the public sector must be shut down too. The Public sector does not raise revenues. I don’t have anything against the school teachers, snow plow drivers, the folks who build the roads, or the police. In fact I quite like them. The problem is if I don’t have a job I can’t pay them.

My daughter’s solution was to parrot the media and “raise taxes on the rich”. I pointed out to her that I am the rich people they are targeting and I am out of work, so I don’t pay taxes. Half the rich people I know are either out of work or have headed out of country. The media has somehow convinced us that there is a billionaire who isn’t paying his fair share hiding under every rock, and all we have to do to solve everything is start turning over rocks. But no, that isn’t what will happen. Instead, kids, they will raise taxes on your parents. In the end you still pay the taxes when you inherit less.

Remember, kids, the “rich”, excepting a few billionaires, is just your parents and grand-parents, and hopefully in a few years if you play your cards right, also you. Whatever you mandate the government to do to others they will also do to you. So think things through and don’t fire before you aim.

#63 YouKnowWho on 11.23.19 at 12:10 am

Check out this crib in Hoffman Estates – a suburb of Chicago.

6brdm, 5 bath, 3600 sqft, brick, would easily cost $4m range in world known Mississauga or close to $8m in exclusive and executive cold and grey 8 months a year cold Oakville.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5797-Red-Oak-Dr-Hoffman-Estates-IL-60192/70429796_zpid/

…that’s right….that’s all it costs in Hoffman Estates, IL. Just 10% or so of what you’d pay for it in any Toronto suburb. #WeTheSpecialNorth.

#64 Economystical on 11.23.19 at 12:19 am

My dear friends, the solution to economic turmoil has always been for the government to hire more workers. It doesn’t matter what they do, as long as they spend their earnings and pay taxes. Don’t you see the beauty of it? The government hires more people and then collects more taxes. What they don’t tax gets spent at subway, which employs people in the private sector.

This whole idea that the private sector supports government is backwards! “You didn’t build that!”, as Obama once declared. It is the government that supports the private sector.

The goal of Economystics is a free lunch for everyone, with no one working in the kitchen. This is entirely achievable if we just carve the golden goose up slowly enough. Or more precisely teach it to carve itself up.

#65 Smoking Man on 11.23.19 at 1:25 am

Garth give it up. Canadians are not risk takers.
They won’t invest shit. They think a post office job with a good pension is making it.

There are more Lear Jets at John Wayne air port than in all of Canada.

Difference, risk taker vs communist teacher education..

Bring Turner investments to orange county, shit load of risk takers here…

Canada is doomed….

#66 Jenny Wang on 11.23.19 at 1:46 am

DELETED

#67 Smoking Man on 11.23.19 at 2:04 am

Warning to star bucks employees

https://youtu.be/j1XO2blhmYM

#68 Stan Brooks on 11.23.19 at 2:50 am

The expectations of 7-8 % returns when economy/GDP grows at 2 % is optimistic at best.

+ that GDP ‘growth’ is based on understated inflation and ever increasing debt.

How long can private debt grow further? Not much despite all junkie debt ‘guarantees’ in the form of ‘mortgage insurance’.

Federal government alone is running 30 billions annual deficit and we have not even started to deleverage.

Selling the immigrants future in the form of debt is limited. Plus the cost of living despite all lies about ‘high standard’ is restricting quality immigration flow.
Now 30 k before taxes immigrants income suddenly justifies 1.5 mil cornflakes homes and 1 million glass condos

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/immigrants-burning-canada-short-sellers-110028233.html

Demand, the lairs say. Just remove the ultra dangerous mortgage insurance and see what happens with that ‘demand’. Of course the owners/the banks will not allow it.

Stock market seems the only safe heaven from dangerous and stupid monetary policies/for now/subject to future tax/’wealth’ confiscation from the poor called ‘rich’.

Keep slaving folks. And remember, it is just a cheap labour sweatshop, nothing personal.

#69 Ferdinand McMillan on 11.23.19 at 2:51 am

Has Trudeau become China’s lackey? Defecting spy unloads. Every level of organization has been infiltrated by Chinese Communists and yet the greed wagon filled with Liberals keeps accepting China’s Communist terror campaign. Let’s dig into Trudeau’s Foundation donors, make that all public. We need to know our country isn’t on its knees to a foreign dictatorship.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/defecting-chinese-spy-offers-information-trove-to-australian-government-20191122-p53d1l.html

#70 Stone on 11.23.19 at 6:44 am

#69 Ferdinand McMillan on 11.23.19 at 2:51 am

Garth, I’m just noting the time stamp as this is the last one published when I got up this morning. It’s not the first time I noticed this. Do you ever go to sleep or are you ever vigilant? Like Batman?

#71 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 11.23.19 at 7:44 am

Re: #43 Flop… on 11.21.19 at 10:14 pm
Where’s the money Greedeau?

Hey G, remember that house you wrote me about the other day?

They paid 1.33 in late September and just sold for 1.2

Serious coin gone in two months on the second rung of the ladder…

M45BC

MLS® Sales History (Since Jan 2014)
3027 E 20TH AVENUE
Date Comments MLS® Number
2019-Nov-20 Sold $1,200,000 R2418880
2019-Nov-08 Listed $1,188,000 R2418880
RE/MAX Crest Realty
2019-Sep-23 Sold $1,330,000 R2405968
2019-Sep-17 Listed $1,128,000 R2405968
RE/MAX Central
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Doesn’t matter, the money is now washed.
Just have to fire up the pill press for another day at minimum 5000 pills per hour to make that coin back up.
That’s why there are no propeties left for regular peeps.
Who can compete with pill presses making them $50k an hour, unless you’re a huge company’s CEO or sports star.
In 10 years most billionaires will be drug kings with presses running round the clock in every city.
They will have pushed the price of EVERYTHING up so us plebes will all be homeless with all the properties/goods in their hands and no need rent out.
Just lovely, and our paid off gov’t in cahoots with them.

#72 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 11.23.19 at 7:51 am

Jason Kenney = the most disgusting abuse of power in Alberta’s history

https://www.mylethbridgenow.com/6123/ndp-opposition-calls-bill-22-most-disgusting-abuse-of-power-in-the-history-of-alberta/

Albertans, there will be no sympathy anywhere for the oil industry decline if the province continues to support this idiotic, unethical government.

Undemocratic. Appalling. Likely criminal as well.

Alberta = New Venezuela

#73 Alberta Ed on 11.23.19 at 8:49 am

Actually, the climate is about right, too, once you look at the actual data. Google: Climate Groupthink.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.19 at 8:58 am

Apparently it wasnt just the CyberPunk truck windows that cracked yesterday……

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/22/elon-musk-net-worth-tesla-cybertruck

#75 Phylis on 11.23.19 at 9:15 am

#8 45north on 11.22.19 at 4:24 pm Would it have hopped the median and taken out the bad guy?

Kitt would have.

#76 Sam on 11.23.19 at 9:19 am

There are always recessions so don’t let recency bias get the best of ya .

It took two full years to get back to even .TWO, whole advisors got their 1%

#77 TurnerNation on 11.23.19 at 9:48 am

I welcome our new Minister of Middle Class Destruction.
All these new taxes coming, it’s the slow from of communism/government ownership of assets.
See if they came for all of it at once you’d yelp.
But bleeding an extra 1-5% a year in taxes against earnings and fixed assets; well they own you but you still claim freedom.
Oh the wonderful schools and roads and hospitals it will beget, right?

Shut down Kanada already. Railroad strikes helping. As if our elite rulers would leave anything to chance!

#78 Remembrancer on 11.23.19 at 10:46 am

#57 Sail Away on 11.22.19 at 10:46 pm
Re: Tesla pickup
The Tesla Cybertruck is definitely ugly, but no uglier than a Humvee. If it’s equally capable, count me in.
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No way its equally capable; have they published approach / departure angles? Heck, you can’t even reportedly get a sheet of drywall into the bed so its likely relegated to being another over priced mall crawler. Can you even see a MK 19 turret going on top or rear? Besides, the Toyota Hilux is already the platform of choice for DIY mounted firepower or going rock crawling for that matter…

#79 Gregor Samsa on 11.23.19 at 10:55 am

#73 CROOKED JASON KENNEY – LOCK HIM UP!! on

The NDP created a second election investigator office, duplicating the original office. Why? Because the original office is non-partisan (politicans do not appoint the investigators), while into their duplicate office was directly appointed an NDP-partisan investigator (who had a long grudge with the PC Party and previously sued them). So what we had there is something like the situation in the USA with the endless Trump investigations: the NDP had a created an independent office, accountable to nobody, designed to solely investigate their political opponents for years on end. Who’s really abusing power in that situation?

By getting rid of the partisan investigator and moving the investigations back where they belong, the UCP thwarted the NDP plan having 4 years straight of “investigations” into the UCP. The NDP are fighting so hard on this because that was their only hope of fooling Albertans to get back into power.

#80 TOguy on 11.23.19 at 11:34 am

Could this happen in the Great White North?

Baby boomers may put ‘tidal wave’ of 21M homes on market — but who will buy them?

https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/baby-boomers-may-put-21m-homes-on-market-but-who-will-buy-them

#81 Dharma Bum on 11.23.19 at 11:46 am

Over the last eight years a nicely-balanced portfolio has delivered a 7% return. From 1926 until now a 60/40 portfolio has averaged almost 8%. Returns were positive 85% of the time. There was even a depression. People who put their money in and forgot about it doubled their wealth every decade – despite the fact the world ended fairly regularly. – Garth
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A big problem for the idiotic masses today is TOO MUCH INFORMATION.

20 short years ago, we thought we lived in the information age. Media outlets were many – television, radio, print, and the fledgeling internet. We watched, listened, and read, and thought we knew everything we needed to know in order to make informed decisions.

Today, however, any jerk with a phone and a wi-fi connection can have a blog, a podcast, a you tube channel, a twitter account, an instagram account, a facebook account, a reddit account, or whatever stupid platform they want to espouse their idiocy.

It’s far more difficult today to separate the wheat from the chaff, consequently resulting in poor decision making by the ignorant, the gullible, and the paranoid.

Dunderheads surf the net and think that they are educating themselves. At worst, they make foolish investment decisions based on gross misinformation. At best, they become deer in the headlights.

As always, you just need to ignore the gibberish, and stick to your long term financial plan. The world goes on. Hitch your wagon to it and stay the course for the long haul.