Don’t do it

There was a good reason 65 was set as the retirement age for a government pension back in 1935. Life expectancy at the time was 61. Surprise!

Well, lots has changed. Now you can apply for your CPP at age 60, if you want (and you should). The average dude lasts until 80 and the girls clock in at 84. Increasingly people say they want to retire at 50, or 55. That means three decades of life after you bring in the last paycheque. If you’re one of those crazy FIRE kids, you’re gunning to stop work at forty. So, four decades.

Therefore, we have a problem. Too long life. Too little money.

Stark evidence of that this week as yet another scary survey was published, this one by Sun Life. If you ever doubt at least half the people on your street are pooched – whether they know it or not –  just check out the stats.

Almost half (47%) know they’re going to run out of money before they die. Of those already retired, almost three-quarters say it sucks (“not what I expected”). Among people working, 75% say they have zero financial plan and close to half expect to still be working in their late sixties – of necessity.

This is compounded now by life expectancy. Unless every kid in school starts vaping, males will hit 84 and females 87. The fast-growing group is already wrinklies over 100 and in North America 11,000 Boomers retire every day. In 35 years an even larger number of Millennials will be doing the same – if climate change doesn’t have everyone sunburned, drowned or chasing bugs.

So we’ve never been in this space before, with longer lives, stretched finances, substantial debt, a record-low savings rate, a demographic bulge – and the death of pensions. Sure, the CPP and OAS exist, but that’s gas and grocery money. Disappearing are defined benefit plans and also corporate pensions with payouts people can depend on. Seven in ten of us (like me) have no employer-organized plan of any kind.

How much do you need to retire? Depends on what you plan to spend, of course. Surveys show most people think $750,000 would do it, but the average family has saved $180,000 (better than in the US, but public pensions there are twice as generous as ours). So – given the current savings rate of less than 1% – it’s a recipe for disaster. Also recall that 80% of all the money in TFSA sits in GICs or savings (making nothing after inflation) and most people believe stocks are satanic and condos divine.

The inescapable conclusions: retirement won’t happen for large numbers of people who will have no choice but to work until they drop. Second, lots more houses will come on the market since liquidation will be the only salvation. Not good for valuations. Third, don’t count on an inheritance. You might have to take mom in, actually. Fourth, it’s impossible for governments to live within their means given the tsunami of old geezers in need of support and health care. Fifth, taxes are going up. A lot. And, six, we have a big collective failure on our hands – when half the population is unable to care for themselves after living for sixty or seventy years. What the heck were they thinking?

As this blog has told you repeatedly, there are simple ways to ensure you’re not cannon fodder in the war on stupidity. Putting $100 a week into a TFSA and staying invested in decent ETFs for 35 years will net you about $800,000. The tax-free income kicked out will be close to $50,000 (at 6%). Add in CPP and OAS (which would be undiminished by the income stream) and you end up with nearly seventy grand in annual income and basically no tax payable. That compares with the median income of $57,600 for Canadian retirees now.

So is saving/investing a hundred bucks a week an economic hardship? Apparently it’s out of reach for half of the families in Canada, who average $200 or less a month in disposable income after paying regular overhead. The overwhelming reason is simple. Property ownership. The historic cost of acquiring and maintaining real estate in Canada has wiped out household savings, gutted earned incomes, torpedoed the savings rate and now has 47% of people convinced they’ll be croaking penniless.

So if there’s one overarching lesson for the next gen of moisters, it’s this: look at the financial failure your parents are turning into. And don’t do it. He who’s liquid will get the last laugh. Or maybe wheeze.

 

164 comments ↓

#1 Overheardyou on 11.19.19 at 3:15 pm

Myself being a middle of the pack Millennial, speaking with others. Sadly, most can’t see past next month. Let alone decades from now. Plus, they’re all convinced by recency bias. Time will tell…

#2 Shawn Allen on 11.19.19 at 3:15 pm

On CPP at 60

Different strokes for different folks

One point. If a couple both have good, CPP then there will belittle or no survivor benefit. Therefore collect at 60 makes better sense in the cases versus one partner with high cpp. If that cpp not needed st 60 and might be needed at 75 then collecting at 65 may be best.

P. S. : I’m glad retirement is not a we thing. Many are pooched but not those who did and planned better.

Someone has to do the traveling and living well!

#3 MF on 11.19.19 at 3:17 pm

#93 T,

“Incredible, a 3 year old article about what Toronto might be is 50 years. Very insightful and relevant… /s

I’m not a fan of Toronto lately either, but do try better than cherry picking ridiculous articles as supporting evidence of your points of view.

MF wins this one, hands down”

-Honestly winning a debate against IH is pretty impossible. He’s damn good. Thanks T.

MF

#4 Damifino on 11.19.19 at 3:23 pm

I took my CPP nine years ago at 60.

No regrets. I highly recommend it.

#5 not so simple on 11.19.19 at 3:36 pm

“P. S. : I’m glad retirement is not a we thing. Many are pooched but not those who did and planned better.

Someone has to do the traveling and living well!”

Well, my parents are poor into their old age because my dad got early onset dementia and then my mom had to retire early to take care of him or cram him in a home.

It’s not always so simple as those who plan better get a better retirement.

#6 BillyBob on 11.19.19 at 3:45 pm

#3 MF on 11.19.19 at 3:17 pm
#93 T,

“Incredible, a 3 year old article about what Toronto might be is 50 years. Very insightful and relevant… /s

I’m not a fan of Toronto lately either, but do try better than cherry picking ridiculous articles as supporting evidence of your points of view.

MF wins this one, hands down”

-Honestly winning a debate against IH is pretty impossible. He’s damn good. Thanks T.

MF

====================================================

Nope.

The age of the article is a non sequitur. The article was talking about Toronto 50 years from now, so the fact that it’s 3 years old is inconsequential. It’s still completely relevant, unless of course in the last three years:

– immigration levels have dropped;
– people have stopped aging;
– people have started marrying more;
– public infrastructure development has increased exponentially.

Except that NONE of these has happened or is happening. It’s patently obvious that every factor mentioned in the article is completely on target and then some.

But then, I guess you and “T” would have had to read the article to grasp that. Much easier to ignore/dismiss things we don’t agree with.

#7 Rargary on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm

With CRISPR, Garth could be cloned for our distant future gens… but that’s not likely to happen. As a genx’er, I am both carrying the boomers (lol autotexted bombers) and supporting the genz’ers. Trusting the millennials to support me is scary with their FIRE movement. But there’s tons of them so hopefully a numbers game so they can pull it off. As much and as long as I’ve been reading G’s blogs, I have to ask, WHERE ARE WE HEADED? From a country of must haves to not haves. Retirement becomes fantasy. Doing magic tricks downtown for change?

#8 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm

Most people aren’t going to have enough money no matter how long they live.

Mistakes or missed opportunities in your 20s and 30s turn into catfood and cbc in your 70s and 80s.

#9 Some will win the lottery of life... on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm

Good health. A good private pension with benefits for the family after working for one employer his/her whole working life. A good inheritance. A divorce free life.
Other’s will need the other type of lottery, but both types are very elusive now.

#10 jess on 11.19.19 at 4:20 pm

“For years, banks in three Eastern European countries were stripped of assets by their owners using a blunt but efficient scheme made possible by Meinl Bank, a venerable Austrian financial institution that lost its license last week.

On November 15, the European Central Bank (ECB) revoked the private Viennese bank’s license.
Hundreds of millions of euros were siphoned out of Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania, punching holes in state budgets and leaving creditors empty handed, according to a six-month investigation by OCCRP and its Austrian partners, profil and ORF.

At the heart of the scheme was Meinl, which had gambled big — and lost — in real estate before turning to a profitable new business: helping bankers across Eastern Europe siphon money from their own institutions. The business helped keep Meinl afloat but the bank, now called Anglo Austrian AAB Bank AG, may pay the ultimate price.

When it came to stripping assets from their financial institutions, Eastern European bankers found the infrastructure they needed in a century-old Austrian bank.

Meinl Bank now faces permanent loss of its license and the dealings they facilitated are being investigated in at least four countries.

It’s an ignoble end for a venerable institution – and one that leaves taxpayers in Ukraine, Latvia and Lithuania on the hook. Some blame Austrian authorities for being too slow to act.

“The Vienna bank job employed a form of international financing called back-to-back loans, through correspondent accounts other banks set up at Meinl. Such accounts are mainly used to facilitate international trade and make payments in different currencies fast and simple. But at Meinl, some accounts were allegedly set up to benefit the banks’ owners.

Typically, banks in places like Ukraine would guarantee a Meinl loan to an offshore company with opaque ownership or a direct tie to the banks’ owners. The “borrower” would then default, prompting Meinl to invoke the guarantee and recoup the money from the originating bank.

Left to pay the bill were ordinary bank customers and, ultimately, states with national deposit guarantee systems. Ukraine, where some 100 banks were placed under state supervision and closed in 2014 and 2015 due to questionable accounting practices and suspected money laundering, was hit particularly hard.

The Ukrainian Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) estimates that 14 banks used corresponding accounts at Meinl to move US$385.6 million and 75.7 million euros that disappeared during the Ukrainian financial crisis.

Banks in Lithuania and Latvia, meanwhile, lost some 54 million euros that went offshore via Meinl Bank.

While Ukrainian banks lost more money, the Baltic banks present the clearest record of how the Vienna bank job worked.

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-austrian-bank-job/the-vienna-bank-job

#11 Not Tenth on 11.19.19 at 4:24 pm

Not 1st #9: Cat food and CBC at 70? I’ll pass on the cat food, but I don’t understand the connection with CBC. Most of the radio programming is great. Maybe you are referring to TV, which is terrible on any channel. But your cat food eaters probably can’t afford a TV, so please enlighten us. What’s wrong with CBC?

#12 Sold Out on 11.19.19 at 4:33 pm

#5 not so simple

Bingo! Very few people here seem willing to admit they have been extraordinarily lucky, and that misfortune never darkened their door.

Job loss, ill-health, disability, divorce – these are all reasons that some of us are less prepared for retirement than others. We are all just whistling past the graveyard.

Bad things happen to good people everyday; going all preachy, Protestant-work-ethic on their sorry butts isn’t the least bit helpful.

What’s that old Tom Wolfe quote? “If a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is a conservative who’s been arrested.”

#13 Captain Uppa on 11.19.19 at 4:35 pm

I was doing well saving until my two kids were born. RESP money is a must, but once both are in kindergarten we can resume our TFSA contributions.

The bright side is that we both have very good DB pension programs. We realize how lucky we are as not everyone has that luxury.

On an aside, I know quite a few people who want to work at 65 and our quite happy in doing so.

#14 Captain Uppa on 11.19.19 at 4:36 pm

I can’t believe I put “our” instead of “are”. I won’t sleep tonight.

#15 Camille on 11.19.19 at 4:39 pm

Millennials generally outnumber boomers now, and also generally know they can never save enough, so they are socialists and future communists. Think about it they are hedging. And they vote accordingly. Maybe not if they’re Albertans with no job. I like the way Garth says Boomers will work till they drop. I prefer this more truthful description. They may drop still without enough. You cannot work forever, unless you’re Picasso in good health.

#16 Marcus Tatum on 11.19.19 at 4:50 pm

#7 Rargary

Trusting the millennials to support me is scary with their FIRE movement. But there’s tons of them so hopefully a numbers game so they can pull it off.

Don’t worry about it. As a millennial FI goon, I can tell you that most people are unable, unwilling, or unaware of what it takes to become financially independent. FI has always been a contrarian strategy and will still be one when our ashes get tossed in a hole.

#17 Alberta Ed on 11.19.19 at 4:58 pm

Sock Boy’s carbon tax will also suck more $ out of Canadians’ pockets, on top of the soon-to-be capital gains taxes on real estate.

#18 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.19 at 4:59 pm

OLD JOKE:

Q: Why do males tend to die sooner than females?

A: Because they want to!

#19 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 4:59 pm

#8 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm

Mistakes or missed opportunities in your 20s and 30s turn into catfood and cbc in your 70s and 80s.
—— –

That’s the killer right there, if you sail thru your 20’s without getting moving, you are toast. If you have a great income (hopefully two), you can recover from that, but if you hit your 40’s with a giant mortgage and zilch for a portfolio, you’re done like dinner (unless a couple decades from now you can still sell your gta sfd for the equivalent of 1 million 2019 dollars).

A little time on a compound interest calculator shows that it’s the 4th decade of gains/savings that makes the magic happen with doable for most low deposits like Mr. T mentioned. You go from not enough, to set in that time.

The Mils have a big advantage with the Internet, and those of them with an ear to hear have surely already got the message, the rest might need it pounded into them somehow thru school/family/friends.

Going forward (if I were a Mil / Z), I’d not be counting on CPP, OAS, Private or public pensions, or a 65 year retirement date the way things are going with government debt and demographics.

#20 LP on 11.19.19 at 5:00 pm

#14 Captain Uppa on 11.19.19 at 4:36 pm
I can’t believe I put “our” instead of “are”. I won’t sleep tonight.
*****************************
I can’t believe I locked my keys and phone in the car today but there ya go…s**t happens; with disturbing regularity.

F72ON

#21 SunShowers on 11.19.19 at 5:02 pm

Disappearing are defined benefit plans and also corporate pensions with payouts people can depend on. Seven in ten of us (like me) have no employer-organized plan of any kind.

—————–

Sounds to me like the problem is mostly being caused by jobs not paying out as much as they used to.

#22 earthboundmisfit on 11.19.19 at 5:02 pm

11 Not Tenth …… “What’s wrong with CBC?”

They are the propaganda arm of the Liberal Party of Canada.

#23 Phylis on 11.19.19 at 5:03 pm

#15 Camille on 11.19.19 at 4:39 pm with your statement I think more mills will be working till they drop than boomers. Any one know how many boomers, percentage wise, have already retired? I’d guess more than 50%

#24 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 5:06 pm

#12 Sold Out on 11.19.19 at 4:33 pm
#5 not so simple

Bingo! Very few people here seem willing to admit they have been extraordinarily lucky, and that misfortune never darkened their door.

Job loss, ill-health, disability, divorce – these are all reasons that some of us are less prepared for retirement than others. We are all just whistling past the graveyard.

Bad things happen to good people everyday; going all preachy, Protestant-work-ethic on their sorry butts isn’t the least bit helpful.
———

True that, but another old saying also comes to mind:

“Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”

#25 YouKnowWho on 11.19.19 at 5:11 pm

Garth,

Kids don’t have the money to save now. Longer in school. More student debt (start them out on debt early!). Late starters. Delayed family. No pension. Where do you want them to get the money from?

And who’s causing all of this? Who’s setting this policy? Who’s putting all the kids in deep debt before they can even start? Who’s introducing the kids into the system that (as your post yesterday noted) it up to the ears in debt already with hardly a hope to pay it off?

No wonder the kids are pissed. They have a right to be to be honest. I would be if I was them.

Free education.
Laws that forbid government debt.
Laws that allow only balanced budgets.
Laws that don’t allow corporations to crap on the planet and leave it to the kids to clean up.

Are these things illogical? Impossible?

It’s nuts what happens right now. F-it! Let the kids worry about it!

#26 Lee on 11.19.19 at 5:12 pm

You ignore that about 25% of the workers in the province are government workers with DB pensions. At the Provincial level that is a pension paying roughly 70% of your best five years averaged. I think federal employees do even better. Even a lower ranking employee earning $50K a year would get $35,000 a year from their pension, plus OAS, plus some adjusted amount of CPP. If that is not enough,there’s always Walmart.

The Ontario government has 11% of workers on its payroll. – Garth

#27 FreeBird on 11.19.19 at 5:12 pm

Agree life challenges like job loss, ill-health, disability, divorce and also aging/ailing parents etc can make saving/investing tougher. After a certain age most of us have dealt with a few of these and continue to which makes saving money harder (much harder) but not impossible. We got a wake up call a few years ago via Garth (as readers not clients). Tough choices were made to get on a better footing and direction. Not easy but well worth it.

#28 YouKnowWho on 11.19.19 at 5:18 pm

#10 jess

When I play Ms. Pac-Man and I die on the Cherry or Strawberry level, I just reset the game and start over. I’m not going into the Orange level with a Pac lost in previous levels!

And so I wonder. Is that where the banking/debt mess is eventually headed? Toward a giant reset to wipe out the fact that they didn’t get the perfect score ahead of the next level? Or rather that the whole thing is so twisted that it resets under it’s own weight?

I can sure as heck see the kids want a reset for this game. Bet you they aren’t happy to play the old fart’s games – where they come into the game already owing a decade of “points”. “Oh and here is a pile of nuclear waste kids – handle it, would you? Or you’ll die. So long suckers!”

…flatline. Reset.

#29 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.19 at 5:20 pm

Smoking Man..

Was in LA last week…
……wanna compare notes?

#30 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 5:22 pm

Wait until the urban woke in GTA see the CPP fall apart after AB torpedoes it.

That’s right low information voters. Pick up a paper instead of reading the raptors page. Elections have consequences. You are about to get a hard lesson in how the country really works.

You badly need a puppy. – Garth

#31 Sovavia on 11.19.19 at 5:34 pm

(1) CPP was 100% in government bonds not so long ago; maybe Alberta will soon have a new SWF.

(2) The optimal mix of bonds and stocks varies by decade; over-confidence in asset allocation appears to be a dangerous Achilles’ heel.

(3) Climate change will be largely beneficial for Canada, as more land is available for agriculture and the entire north is open for development.

#32 Paul on 11.19.19 at 5:36 pm

Maybe this will solve the housing shortage. It’s like the Government nationalist people’s property?

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/evj37m/toronto-airbnb-rules-will-return-thousands-of-units-to-housing-market

#33 Gimme stuff on 11.19.19 at 5:39 pm

Yup, take that gubmint money – no socialism on this blog.

#34 AGuyInVancouver on 11.19.19 at 5:41 pm

#30 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 5:22 pm
Wait until the urban woke in GTA see the CPP fall apart after AB torpedoes it.

That’s right low information voters. Pick up a paper instead of reading the raptors page. Elections have consequences. You are about to get a hard lesson in how the country really works
_ _ _
Given Alberta’s sad history of finacial mismanagement (how’s that Heritage Fund going) it is more likely Canada will have to bail out Krazy Kenney’s Pension Plan, should Albertans be stupid enough to let it go ahead.

#35 YouKnowWho on 11.19.19 at 5:47 pm

You badly need a puppy. – Garth

Puppies are expensive Garth.

With the financial situation the way you highlight, the wrinklies can’t afford to share their dog food with actual dogs, even small ones puppy sized.

I’m not making a joke. How the heck is 40% of food wasted and people go hungry. It’s repulsive.

#36 Rargary on 11.19.19 at 5:48 pm

Speaking of fed debt, how much moula would be saved if we scrapped gov’t empl pensions?… just sayin…

#37 pimp my house on 11.19.19 at 5:57 pm

New rules for AirBnb landlords

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-airbnb-ruling-1.5364775

#38 Thistle My Mistletoe on 11.19.19 at 5:58 pm

Easy solutions here. Move to a small town but not too small. Rent. Walk. Watch curling on tv. Collect monthly and quarterly dividends. Eat a lot of sardines and peanut butter. Live to 99 and on your 100th birthday, strut around at the local mall and have a coffee.

#39 pimp my house on 11.19.19 at 5:58 pm

Oh yeah, don’t forget to include the income on your income return either!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-airbnb-ruling-1.5364775

#40 RE_Investor on 11.19.19 at 6:07 pm

I knew early in my career that future pension and RSPs would not be enough in my retirement years. That’s why I started to get rental properties to generate positive cash flow. Lots of sacrifices, hard work, saving the bulk of our salaries, reinvesting rental income into new rental properties. The monthly cash flow is amazing. The RIFs, TFSAs, CPP and OAS are not required now, but I’ll take it anyways. My wife and I are set for a comfortable retirement and our sons will inherit the real estate portfolio. It really only took 20 years to get to this stage of financial freedom with absolutely no worries about money!

My advice to anyone is start investing every spare dollar you have into any investment that will generate positive cash flow. Time is on your side if you start early enough. Anyone that disagrees, I wish them luck on their lottery ticket purchase….lol

#41 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 6:09 pm

You know, all this talk about the Mils working forever needs to be broken down a bit.

How many Mils making 150k plus have been featured on this blog? The Mils enjoy a work culture that for the first time in history, features hoards of well educated Women that bring home as much, if not more Bacon than the Men do – plus benefits and pensions to boot.

To me, there are two groups of Mils, the educated married couple with good dual incomes, and everyone else. The former essentially has the meat and potatoes to make a life (and retirement) for themselves almost anywhere they might land. The later are going to think boomers had it easy.

Over the last 10 years, a long standing statistic has reversed. At one time, educated Women were less likely to be married than their poorly educated counterparts. Today, an educated Woman has a GREATER chance of being married than a poorly educated one (again for the first time ever). These are Millennial Women, not Gen X or Boomers.

Cliff notes: educated millennial Men and Women are gunning equally for same these days, and both have an eye towards marriage – and guess what? Divorce rates are starting to drop a little with the Mils. Yes, probably because the less educated Millennial Men are actively avoiding marriage.

When we talk about the Mils, we are probably talking about the generation with the most extreme wealth inequality that has ever existed. But make no mistake, there are a good many of them that (should) have it made in the shade.

#42 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 6:11 pm

#18 Lost…but not leased on 11.19.19 at 4:59 pm sez:

“OLD JOKE:

Q: Why do males tend to die sooner than females?

A: Because they want to!”
—————————————
The above is a perfect example of what happens when one tries to run a joke thru the Politically Correct Sanitizer™. The joke is ruined.

The real opening line is “Why do husbands die before their wives”?

The punch line is the same.

#43 Andrewski on 11.19.19 at 6:14 pm

My Dad retired at 58, while Mom worked through to the age of 70. Both passed away in the last year at the age of 92. Thank goodness Dad had planned his golden years carefully. Admittedly they lucked out with the real estate lottery, having bought the family home at just under $100K & selling out at over 10 times that price, but to think that my Dad was retired for almost as long as his working years, is quite amazing! I was fortunate to spend a lot of quality time with my parents.

#44 -YAK- on 11.19.19 at 6:15 pm

@#24 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 5:06 pm
#12 Sold Out on 11.19.19 at 4:33 pm
#5 not so simple

Bingo! Very few people here seem willing to admit they have been extraordinarily lucky, and that misfortune never darkened their door.

Job loss, ill-health, disability, divorce – these are all reasons that some of us are less prepared for retirement than others. We are all just whistling past the graveyard.

Bad things happen to good people everyday; going all preachy, Protestant-work-ethic on their sorry butts isn’t the least bit helpful.
———

True that, but another old saying also comes to mind:

“Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
_________________________________________

ok doomer.

#45 Timmy on 11.19.19 at 6:15 pm

So why doesn’t the govt force higher CPP contributions? You can’t look after yourself, then we’ll require you to contibute more up front so you will have a higher pension/

#46 SimplyPut7 on 11.19.19 at 6:17 pm

You can rent a brand new detached house in the GTA for 40% less than the cost of ownership (assuming 20% down payment and mortgage rates never go up again).

Higher-end properties ($1.5 million and up) rent is 50% to 60% less than the cost of owning. The downpayment could be invested in a diversified portfolio without the worry about being house rich and cash poor.

MLS has many new homes reducing asking rent, I was wondering where these landlords were going to find all of these rich people to pay off their mortgages. The median family income in the GTA cannot afford the asking rent or buy a similar house.

I can’t wait for all of the new homes in the GTA to be completed. We may have finally reached peak rent.

#47 Stone on 11.19.19 at 6:18 pm

Almost half (47%) know they’re going to run out of money before they die.

———

What they’re not saying is that another 47% (almost half) are too oblivious to even realize or know that they’re going to run out of money before they die.

You know, people have these shiny plastic cards they use to buy things and the store magically lets these people walk out with merchandise. No paper money involved. It’s magic. Oooohhhh! Aaaahhhh!

These are the same people that believe if you slam a bathtub faucet and spout into any wall, water will magically appear when you turn the tap.

#48 Stone on 11.19.19 at 6:21 pm

The inescapable conclusions: retirement won’t happen for large numbers of people who will have no choice but to work until they drop.

———

So really, no change.

#49 BlogDog123 on 11.19.19 at 6:23 pm

“Disappearing are defined benefit plans and also corporate pensions with payouts people can depend on. Seven in ten of us (like me) have no employer-organized plan of any kind.”

Hey Garth, when you were an MP did you need to work 6+ years to get an MP pension, or is that a recent new rule?
re: Trudeau Minority: The papers say no election for next 2 years while the 2015 new MPs wait for their govt’ pension guarantee to kick in (6 years of service minimum). So they are motivated by self interest to reach that point in time before even considering voting down the Lib minority government.

#50 Ustabe on 11.19.19 at 6:23 pm

That’s the killer right there, if you sail thru your 20’s without getting moving, you are toast. If you have a great income (hopefully two), you can recover from that, but if you hit your 40’s with a giant mortgage and zilch for a portfolio, you’re done like dinner (unless a couple decades from now you can still sell your gta sfd for the equivalent of 1 million 2019 dollars).

Alternate scenario: My public work, the career most would associate me with as an adult was in owning/operating/running small independent restaurants. Worker bee stuff, definitely not get rich stuff. But I loved the work, my family was fed, housed and happy too.

I didn’t have much at all in terms of investments when I was 40, even 50. But my brother and I had a side gig. Over 35+ years we slowly acquired rental properties in Calgary. That turned profitable around year 15…then circumstances happened and I sold all the property and now, only now in my mid 60’s to today in my early 70’s do I have investments.

More than I ever dreamed of, for sure. Wouldn’t of happened if we didn’t persevere with that side gig.

Which brings me to my point: side gigs done properly can be very beneficial. In fact one of my adult sons is Assistant GM of a local auto dealership. He owns a duplex, both sides. Zoning allows him a suite underneath his owner occupied side and he rents that, the full other side and rooms in his side. His housing makes him money every month. You know what he does on the weekends? Delivers pizza and washes dishes for a local pizza/brew pub mashup. Meets more woman that I can keep track of, has an amazing social life, can climb a mountain or kayak a river. Fancy vehicle all paid for (I think), takes good vacations, etc. Side gigs…maybe think about one instead of bitching about trying to find RRSP/TFSA money.

On another note…I have decided I am no longer a Boomer…I am, in fact, a Zoomer. Try and keep up.

#51 akashic record on 11.19.19 at 6:30 pm

How can you run out of money when there is unlimited supply of new tax slaves, who are forced to pay the bills.

#52 Felix on 11.19.19 at 6:37 pm

Even worse, too many retirees are idiots who will spend their limited money on dogs.

Why are dog owners so stupid? Average IQ must be around 75.

https://www.680news.com/video/2019/11/19/video-of-dogs-running-on-dvp-prompts-investigation/

#53 yvr_lurker on 11.19.19 at 6:38 pm

I am okay with working until my late 60s if I still have my health (10-11 years left). I actually really enjoy my job and still feel on top of my game. Probably could retire comfortably in about 4–5 years; the issue that will push me over the edge is how much I dislike what has changed with YVR over the years. Will not be retiring in this city.

#54 Oil Patch Worker on 11.19.19 at 6:41 pm

I find myself forcibly retired at 52 and yes it does suck. Since my wife and most of the other people I know are still working there isn’t a lot to do. I feel guilty spending money so I don’t go skiing or golfing. Even riding motorcycles is more fun with others. I’m getting lots of sleep though. I asked myself out loud one day “what do I do when there is nothing to do all day” and my dog yawned and rolled over. I thought: “Yup, that’s about it.”

I thought about restoring an old car, that seems to be a popular retirement activity. But that costs a lot of money and takes up most of the garage.

There are still jobs to be filled in Calgary from time to time and I’ve had several interviews, but I keep losing out to the 35-40 year old crowd. Ageism is a real thing when it comes to employment. Diversity objectives are a factor as well but I think those are fair, everybody should have a fair shot. Eventually this factor will go away but it’s taking some time to set things right.

Maybe I’ll go drive a fork lift for Home Depot. I did that in my youth. It’s not a bad job. Doesn’t pay all that well but hey.

Or maybe we’ll have another oil boom. That would be nice. I only need another 8 years. I don’t think that can happen with Trudeau in charge though. Not unless there is another energy crises. They seem to come along cyclically but I don’t think we are due for another 5 years or so, which might be too late for me.

Once I give up on the job search entirely I think maybe I’ll volunteer. Maybe walking dogs at an animal shelter or something. Dogs don’t care if you are unemployed.

#55 Nonplused on 11.19.19 at 6:47 pm

#30 not 1st

Alberta leaving the CPP program and going “Quebec” will have an impact on the national program but not huge. It will benefit Alberta more than it hurts Ottawa. CPP, mathematically, looks set to fail regardless whether Alberta is in or out, only the timing changes. It probably makes the “Alberta Pension Plan” (I dub it the APP) sustainable for a longer period of time though.

One thing I am not up to speed on is what is proposed to happen to OAS. Certainly if Alberta pulls out of CPP they have to set up their own OAS system too, I would think. How does Quebec work that?

#56 Debtslavecreator on 11.19.19 at 6:48 pm

Governments and about 40% of the population who’s in massive debt / broke will assure our currency, aptly named the loonie, will collapse steadily and government will make sudden / drastic changes to taxes and registered accounts rules to prevent the few from avoiding the wealth confiscation

This is always how it goes
Those large number of reckless idiots who are making stupid choices will get bailed out until the end and the joke will be on those who’ve saved large and stuffed RRSP/TFSA

Watch and see
Let’s check in before 2030
Broke governments don’t give anyone tax free anything

#57 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 6:49 pm

#19 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 4:59 pm
#8 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm

—————————–
Mistakes or missed opportunities in your 20s and 30s turn into catfood and cbc in your 70s and 80s.
—————————–
That’s the killer right there, if you sail thru your 20’s without getting moving, you are toast. If you have a great income (hopefully two), you can recover from that, but if you hit your 40’s with a giant mortgage and zilch for a portfolio, you’re done like dinner

——————————
Yes, definitely avoid debt. Other than that, I’d say don’t worry too much if you don’t seem to be getting ahead when you’re young.

In your 20’s and 30’s, you’ll probably have tons of expenses, junior to intermediate work positions and lowish salary. You might just have to grit it out and tighten your belt.

If you can do that and hit your 40’s or early 50’s without much debt, you can still do just fine.

Buffett made 97% of his fortune after age 52 and Charlie Munger didn’t start his investment partnership until his 40’s.

Age and craftiness are an advantage.

#58 YouKnowWho on 11.19.19 at 6:53 pm

#18 Lost…but not leased

Q: Why do males tend to die sooner than females?

A: Because males spend their lives working hard and stressing trying to impress/provide for the females, needing to earn more than females just to pay for all the dates and drinks!

Hopefully, with more females in the work force, working and earning as much as males, as they should, this glaring inequality will even out soon and males will die at the same age as females sooner than later! :-)

#59 Lee on 11.19.19 at 6:55 pm

#26,

Yes but with federal and municipal employees included its probably closer to 25% of workers in the province working for one level of government or another.

#60 Nonplused on 11.19.19 at 6:55 pm

Garth, why the hate toward vaping? So far as anyone can tell it is a much healthier alternative to smoking and does not cause cancer. Sure, there have been serious health issues caused by black market THC vapes, but so far the stuff you get at the vape store seems to both eliminate the effects of smoking (smoker’s cough, shortness of breath, congestion) and help people quit. Plus “second hand vape” isn’t really a thing.

This is a clear example of a situation where free market forces found a better solution to a problem than government could. But in addition to helping smokers be healthier, it’s also cutting into government taxes. That’s the real reason they don’t like it.

Smoking anything is moronic. – Garth

#61 Randy on 11.19.19 at 6:56 pm

If I knew I was going to live this long, I’d have taken better care of myself.

Mickey Mantle

…financially and physically…

#62 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 6:58 pm

#34 AGuyInVancouver on 11.19.19 at 5:41 pm

—–

Quebec’s holding our heritage fund for us. That was nice of them don’t you think?

#63 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 7:00 pm

#33 Felix on 11.19.19 at 6:37 pm

Even worse, too many retirees are idiots who will spend their limited money on dogs.

Why are dog owners so stupid? Average IQ must be around 75.

——————————–

Well, they say people are an average of their 5 closest friends.

If you hang out with 4 people of IQ 120 and one dog of IQ 5, the average is 97.

Substitute one more dog and you’re down to 74.

On the plus side… simple minds, simple pleasures. I’ve got some squirrels to chase!

#64 Tony on 11.19.19 at 7:06 pm

My own hubris almost cost me a reasonable retirement. Listening to good advice of people like you and trusting you to help us save, gives us a good shot at being able to retire well. Thank you Garth.

Others reading; listen up, this is solid advice.

#65 BC Interior on 11.19.19 at 7:06 pm

My friends who bought the most expensive home they could as an “investment” will find out later in life that they saved very little for retirement, their home hasn’t provided any outsized appreciation vis-a-vis the other homes in town, and being poor and retired isn’t any fun.

#66 Irish Stew on 11.19.19 at 7:07 pm

Nice article Garth.
Thanks for taking the time to help guide others.
It is appreciated by many.

#67 Wibur on 11.19.19 at 7:13 pm

59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?

#68 akashic record on 11.19.19 at 7:15 pm

America seems different.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/boomers-win-again-old-americans-inherit-unprecedented-amount-incomprehensably-large

#69 2% inflation my arse on 11.19.19 at 7:17 pm

OMG my Mcdonalds value meal just went up 13%

#70 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 7:23 pm

The study on AB CPP says the ROC contributions would have to go up 10% to cover the income from AB. That’s about $365 per worker after tax. Take 32M people outside of AB, 65% are of working age and I get $10B extra needed in CPP contributions which would largely come from our most indebted province Ontario who has the next biggest pool of young workers.

I think it would hurt a little more than people realize.

#71 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.19 at 7:24 pm

#56 Oil Patch Worker on 11.19.19 at 6:41 pm

I find myself forcibly retired at 52 and yes it does suck. Since my wife and most of the other people I know are still working there isn’t a lot to do.
========================

No….actually…this may be a blessing.

Back in late 1970’s/early 1980’s..spouse was near graduation at University…major recruitment by corporations…

Then..economy tanked…(recall 20+% interest rates)

Economy did recover…spouse is now near retirement.

Our son has completed his 4th year apprenticeship insofar as schooling..has passed Interprovincial Exam//only problem is short of required hours?

A problem?

Not really…
….he is getting a lot of side gigs from people (ie renovations etc…..and I told him to simply do TOP QUALITY work…..then referrals will flow.

I recall an olde anecdote of a person wanting to be an actor in a crowded field and seeking advice from a mentor…..who stated ” There is ALWAYS room/demand for another GOOD actor”…..same advice applies for anyone with expertise in a certain field.

People who rely on Big Biz or Big Gov’t really lack the modern survival skills….thus think outside the box !!!

#72 RWZM on 11.19.19 at 7:29 pm

The government will arrange for the seniors to get paid all of the money that they didn’t pay in. Straightforward.

#73 meslippery on 11.19.19 at 7:33 pm

The overwhelming reason is simple. Property ownership.

Yeah thats not helping but if you only need $100.00 per week.
I think free trade and the off shoring of good paying jobs and wage stagnation
would make a $100.00 dent in available funds that would be there otherwise to in vest.

#74 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 7:37 pm

#52 Ustabe on 11.19.19 at 6:23 pm
—-

Yes, I guess I suffer a bit from target fixation – I went down the investing road and never considered much of anything else.

Of course you are correct, there is more than one way to skin a cat (Sorry Felix). Even multiple simultaneous ways.

I actually have a bro who is closing in on a couple decades worth of not having a regular job. But he did plenty of work – bought a house on 100 acres, severed the land built a new house, severed again, sold both houses, bought another lot and built again. Sold the remaining 90 acres at 100% profit and was mortgage free in his early 30’s. Has collected a couple more lots and will maybe build one more time or just flip the land, that’ll be it. Now he does part time work and runs a small biz doing lawn care equipment related stuff – nothing fancy. Pretty nice life actually (wife does have a good job too).

He has done pretty much as well as I have, and will retire comfortably. He likely did not have much of anything invested either, until his late 30’s.

#75 Flop... on 11.19.19 at 7:38 pm

Howmuch just updated the American version of this, and so I will put it up for our American cousins…

M45BC

“Mapped: How Much You Need to Retire Comfortably in Each State

Having enough savings to afford a comfortable retirement has been an issue for a long time now. In fact, some economists have recently estimated that millennials will face even a harder challenge and should save almost half of their income if they wish to retire at 65. However, the good news is that some parts of the country are friendlier on the wallet than others when it comes to retirement. Our newest visualization shows the average amount that a person will need to retire comfortably in each state, as well as the average retirement age by state.

The average retirement age in the U.S. is 64 years old. At the state level, the average retirement age varies from 61 years old in Alaska and West Virginia to 67 years old in Washington, D.C.

The average life expectancy nationwide is 78.6. Among the states, Mississippi has the lowest life expectancy at 74.5, and Hawaii has the highest life expectancy at 81.5.

Nationwide, the average yearly expenses for someone over the age of 65 is $51,624. Mississippi has the lowest annual expenses at $44,758, while Hawaii has the highest annual expenses at $99,170.

Taking into account life expectancy as well as yearly expenses, the average savings required for retirement in the U.S. is $904,452. States in the Northeast and the West require the highest savings for retirement, at over $1 million, while states in the South and the Midwest require the lowest savings.”

Top 5 Most Expensive States for Retirement

1. Hawaii: $1,844,556, average retirement at 66 years old
2. California: $1,456,286, average retirement at 64 years old
3. New York: $1,408,121, average retirement at 64 years old
4. Alaska: $1,341,805, average retirement at 61 years old
5. Oregon: $1,335,752, average retirement at 63 years old

Bottom 5 Least Expensive States for Retirement

1. Mississippi: $617,661, average retirement at 63 years old
2. Tennessee: $660,870, average retirement at 64 years old
3. Alabama: $712,832, average retirement at 62 years old
4. Oklahoma: $723,859, average retirement at 62 years old
5. Arkansas: $728,010, average retirement at 62 years old

https://howmuch.net/articles/cost-comfortable-retirement-america

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 7:44 pm

@#35 You no who
“How the heck is 40% of food wasted and people go hungry.”
****

They feed their cats first?

#77 tccontrarian on 11.19.19 at 7:48 pm

“Therefore, we have a problem. Too long life. Too little money.”
—-

Inevitably, at least for 47%, it follows that they must come face to face with the question of quantity vs quality (of life). I’ve witnessed a couple relatives ‘die’ gradually over several years (NO quality of life whatsoever during the last 5+). Keeping someone breathing at all costs doesn’t make sense to me.

I’ve promised myself to try and go ‘quickly’ as things begin to seriously ‘wind down’. Preferably, drop dead while swimming in a warm Southern Sea, or just go to sleep and not wake up.

tcc

#78 TurnerNation on 11.19.19 at 7:49 pm

I totally get the Climate now.
Millions of years of Earth’s evolution, complex interplay, all may be reduced to one simple thing:

Co2 = Earth’s Heat Control Knob.

I mean I don’t understand why the need for all those fancy degrees and certifications.
The test need only have one question.
Q. What is the Earth’s heat control knob?
A. Co2.

OH don’t forget cow phartz. They change everything!
So simply a child can understand.


Such is propaganda today, geared toward a 7 year old -our attentions spans. Still waiting for my moon trip, it’s been almost 50 years now. Never A Straight Answer.
Bring on the CGI..

#79 will on 11.19.19 at 8:04 pm

I might continue working beyond 65. Not so much for financial reasons but to stay in shape! I am convinced that if people die when they retire in many cases it’s because they are inactive. And I am not interested at all in going to one of those horrific commercial gyms with the exercycles or those horrific treadmills. A subscription to the YMCA maybe for swimming. And join the hiking club. Yeah we need money to stay alive but what you really need is a physical job with all the social interaction that goes with it. Otherwise, you die. Money is part of the equation to a good long life. An important part. But a part. And a dog too.

Lift stuff (not weights). Walk lots (not on a treadmill). Use public transportation, taxicabs, and rent a car whenever you want to. Forget about “living the dream,” god how I hate that phrase. Live LIFE!

#80 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:05 pm

#59 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 6:49 pm

Yes, definitely avoid debt. Other than that, I’d say don’t worry too much if you don’t seem to be getting ahead when you’re young.

In your 20’s and 30’s, you’ll probably have tons of expenses, junior to intermediate work positions and lowish salary. You might just have to grit it out and tighten your belt.

If you can do that and hit your 40’s or early 50’s without much debt, you can still do just fine.

Buffett made 97% of his fortune after age 52 and Charlie Munger didn’t start his investment partnership until his 40’s.

Age and craftiness are an advantage
—— –

I guess it depends on what the grand plan is. For us, it was investing only, nothing else. Every month since 26 years old, come hell or high water – and we have seen plenty of both since the 90’s. We did not put in much (still don’t really), but it will be enough in the end with any luck.

We had all those typical expenses, mortgage, kids, etc… We made it work by not buying a mansion (spent ~1/3rd of what we were approved for), and keeping expenses low. This was our “belt tightening”, it was basically a permanent arrangement fixed against our income.

By 42 the mortgage was done, and the portfolio was finally starting to look, like something. Today, it’s still steaming along nicely after a change in management.

For us, the path we took, we needed every one of those 21 years to get where we are now, and I would not condone wasting a minute getting started unless you have an avenue to pump in huge dollars later on in life (ie side gig / RE profits, as mentioned earlier, or maybe proceeds of business as may be in your case.)

#81 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:24 pm

#37 Figure it Out on 11.19.19 at 5:54 pm

Sure, but how do you know what kind of returns you’ll get in that fourth decade
—-

Same way I knew what I’d get in the 1st and second decade – I didn’t!

Who the hell knows what’ll be going down decades from now? That goes for DB public pensions, CPP, OAS and everything else.

However, it’s 100% GUARANTEED that if I saved squat, or started investing at 40, I’d be eating that cat food in retirement. No way to have a shot at retirement doing it this way.

Hopefully it works out well, if not – we’ll roll when the time comes. Frankly though, I am way more confident about a good outcome now, than I was 20 years ago.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 8:26 pm

@#69 Wibur
“59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?”
++++
No.
You now have enough money to change that gawd awful first name…..

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 8:29 pm

@#71 2% inflation me arse
“OMG my Mcdonalds value meal just went up 13%”
++++
Not to worry.
If you keep eating McDonalds “value meals” yer arse will increase by 50%

#84 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 8:30 pm

#71 tccontrarian on 11.19.19 at 7:48 pm

I’ve promised myself to try and go ‘quickly’ as things begin to seriously ‘wind down’. Preferably, drop dead while swimming in a warm Southern Sea, or just go to sleep and not wake up.

——————————

These women will happily help you avoid dying of natural causes. Easy-peasy:

https://www.wonderslist.com/10-most-cruel-wives/

#85 SW on 11.19.19 at 8:33 pm

#56 Oil Patch Worker on 11.19.19 at 6:41 pm

I’m really sorry you lost your job and hope you can find something else. I have friends in a similar position. They moved away and retrained for another trade.

You would be better to blame the Saudis for the low price of oil.

A recent edition of The Economist (Nov 2-8) says that the Saudis will keep the price low (they make profit at $3-$5 per barrel!) and basically bankrupt or disrupt the rest of the oil industry. They want to be left as the last oil company standing and cannot foresee a time when they actually run out of the stuff. Meanwhile they will try to diversify their economy and sell off some of Saudi Aramco.

(About the only thing that would damage their plans is a major war in the ME, which isn’t exactly unlikely.)

It’s difficult, to say the least.

#86 Flipjack Charlie on 11.19.19 at 8:45 pm

Possible NDP proposal? Move OAS from age 65 to age 18. Change the name to Adult Security Stipend. Increase current amount to $1,000 per month. Immediately raise millions of Canadians out of poverty.

#87 Lost...but not leased on 11.19.19 at 8:47 pm

#70 TurnerNation on 11.19.19 at 7:49 pm
I totally get the Climate now.
Millions of years of Earth’s evolution, complex interplay, all may be reduced to one simple thing:

Co2 = Earth’s Heat Control Knob.

==========================

Act- U -Ally…

……if ones does the homework(Redundant in “Greater Fool” Grad School)..the average Homo Sapien generates almost 1/2 ton of CO2 annually.

Therefore..to save the planet..DO NOT EXHALE !!!
======

AL-SO: Re: cement production??? and RE porn??

Producing a TON of cement produces …collaterally.. over a TON of “GHG”..

#88 genbizx on 11.19.19 at 8:49 pm

Berating people for not saving is kind of funny in an economy that is based on ever increasing consumption. Doesn’t anyone see the fundamental flaw in this? Everything we need and want to buy is far more expensive as a function of our income than ever before. We created marketing to drive consumption (ie. making each other feel less valuable when we have say, a Kia vs. a Mercedes) then we wonder why we are willing to take crazy risks, cheat, forego retirement planning etc. all just to feel ok. The issue here isn’t saving vs spending. Every system and rises and falls and greed, erosion of values, corruption, etc. are massive contributing factors every time.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 8:51 pm

@#80 Turnernation
“OH don’t forget cow phartz. They change everything!
So simply a child can understand.”
++++++

You misspelled “fartz” ( un-four-GIVEABLE) and you used “simply” where “simple” would do!

Off to bed without any supper!

#90 MF on 11.19.19 at 8:54 pm

#80 TurnerNation on 11.19.19 at 7:49 pm

“Such is propaganda today, geared toward a 7 year old -our attentions spans. Still waiting for my moon trip, it’s been almost 50 years now. Never A Straight Answer. Bring on the CGI.”

-We did it to prove to the Soviets we were better and now the cold war is over
-It’s incredibly expensive
-It’s incredibly dangerous
-There’s nothing there

The answer to that question is as straight as a ruler.

MF

#91 Bob Dog on 11.19.19 at 9:15 pm

I know several people in their 50s who did not take part in selling Canada down the river and are now forced to rent for the rest of their lives. I know of a nephew who is forced to live with 7 people in a rental because he is not a money laundering criminal.

When the shit really starts to go south will these people go silent into the night or will they seek vengeance on the corrupt incompetent traitors who have seized control of this pathetic excuse for a country.

I see violent protests taking place on every continent today. What will it be like in 25 years. Will today’s leaders be prosecuted for crimes against the people?

I’m perplexed that Canadians are so docile and complacent in the face of such aggressive financial terrorism.

When the average home cost is 11 or 15 times the average family income you really need to wonder who the military is protecting.

#92 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 9:17 pm

#56 Oil Patch Worker on 11.19.19 at 6:41 pm

Maybe I’ll go drive a fork lift for Home Depot. I did that in my youth. It’s not a bad job. Doesn’t pay all that well but hey.
———-

That’s what you should do, sitting around will wreck your brain and your marriage. Ms. IH asked me what I would do if I found myself out of work years ago. Prospects around here suck huge for good paying (non-trades) work, and I was damn lucky to get an opportunity to “make” a job for myself when I did actually lose my position 9 years ago.

I said I’d look for 2 jobs, one starting next week doing whatever, and one in my profession starting whenever. Maybe even a part time gig that might go somewhere someday (I own a bunch of heavy yellow iron, a tandem axle, and a 3/4 ton truck, a chainsaw, a… – well you get the picture).

I even consider this route as a slide into retirement, one that starts when I reach only 3 years down the road from where you are right now. Part time joe-job, easy on the brain, and enough to buy the groceries.

I think your wife would approve!

#93 SoggyShorts on 11.19.19 at 9:25 pm

#13 Captain Uppa on 11.19.19 at 4:35 pm
And
#55 yvr_lurker on 11.19.19 at 6:38 pm

There’s a huge difference between working in your 60s and having to work in your 60s.
My pops has been retired for a while but works 1-5 days a week for my brother. It’s perfect because sometimes they need an extra guy and sometimes not. It keeps the old man busy and healthy but at the same time he hasn’t turned down a mid-week fishing trip with any of his buddies in years. The extra cash is just a bonus he uses for upgrading from 4 to 5 star trips or fishing toys.

This is not even remotely what many can expect where they’ll be 65+ and still fall into that “if I miss a paycheck, I bounce a rent check”

#94 Grunt on 11.19.19 at 9:48 pm

Sun Life they’ve got room to talk. They run those DCP mutuals with all kinds of hidden fees where the employer puts the onus on their employees to pick performance. Life’s brighter under the sun that burns you.

Monthly shopping on the internet for disposable junk. Don’t do.it. Just cause you see a pretty picture on your phone doesn’t mean you can’t live without it.

Channel those funds into your TFSA or RRSP. Instead of custom fees and damaged-in-transit.

#95 Juve101 on 11.19.19 at 9:56 pm

Today’s post is like a punch to the face. Good reading but Ouch!

#96 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 10:06 pm

#109 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 7:22 pm
#105 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 3:31 pm

“I was just thinking about your solar panels. There’s no way I will tolerate .40-.50 kWh hydro. That’s a new Grizzly 700 every 3 years!”

Do I at long last have a convert after all my incessant and irritating proselytizing? :)

“Only way that it will happen for me is if I can get net metering in my area.”

Here’s a link showing how to “contact your electricity company to find out how to apply for a net metering agreement, and connect your renewable energy system to the grid.”

https://www.ontario.ca/page/save-your-energy-bill-net-metering

“What’s your minimum billing?” It’s $22.75, but I don’t live in Ontario. :)

“Do you have to have insurance against accidentally back feeding the grid during a power outage?”

No, according to para. 3.9 of my net metering agreement, in the event of a power outage, my power company will “curtail, interrupt or reduce [my] facility’s electrical output, without prior notice, whenever [my power company] determines that it is necessary to do so.” Feel free to ask any other questions. :)
—-

Ha! I only opposed the idea of solar as a stand alone power supply for the grid. I’m totally down for net metering if the $ makes sense. If you are familiar with McGuinty’s “micro-FIT” program back in the day, well – I gave some serious thought to it. In the end, the contracts were filled like lightning, and I felt too rushed to commit, so I missed out on that initial .80/kWh deal. :( Now we all get hammered here in Ontario because of that deal – even though they’re not paying as ludicrous prices for solar anymore.

Last I checked, it was a 45.00 monthly minimum here, but that still sounds pretty good compared to a 350.00 bill. You must have a smart meter, and that is probably how they can cut your power off in the case of outage – maybe that will be the case now for me too. It was a long time ago when I looked at all this stuff.

At any rate, my bills are about 125.00 now, I’ll start getting irked at 250.00, at 350.00 I’d be making escape plans. You probably already know that I’m totally allergic to getting shafted by the government no matter what dept. is providing the thrusting. Net metering could be a way (possibly excellent way) to do a little thrusting of my own if the prices go high enough.

Thanks for the links!

#97 Island Guy on 11.19.19 at 10:14 pm

I have a boy turning 19 in a few days and opening a TSFA. He has managed to accumulate about 25k in his young life and, while he lusts for an M3, is smart enough to keep accumulating. I have indeed introduced him to the compound interest calculators, the idea of balance but, most importantly, the idea that a TSFA in a savings account is idiocy.

If he can put 20K in on his 19th birthday and $100 a week thereafter at 5% tax free he will hit 50 with $450,000, by 60 that will be 800K. And, of course, his 19 year old income is likely to be a heck of a lot less than his 30 or 40 year old income. Along the way there will be, I suspect, a few bingos and a few setbacks. However, by starting as soon as he can, my son should hit a million early in life.

Start early. Be regular.

#98 Dr V on 11.19.19 at 11:59 pm

O man this is a really bad report.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/albertans-make-disproportionate-contribution-to-cpp.pdf

From the above

“Several key assumptions underlie this analysis.
First, the analysis examines the contributions
collected from workers in Alberta and the payments made to retirees in Alberta. In a strict
sense, this is different from what would happen
if Alberta were to withdraw from the CPP. In
such a case, benefits would be paid to retirees
who contributed to the system regardless of
where they lived in retirement. The view of the
authors is that this difference is largely mitigated in the calculations presented below based
on the reality that on net, Alberta tends to attract retirees. In other words, over time, more
seniors tend to move to Alberta than leave…..”

and then

“Over those 46 years, in only
12 of them did more seniors leave the province
than move into it—roughly one of every four
years. In addition, over the entire period, a net
total of 17,472 people over the age of 65 moved
(to Alberta)”

I think more people over 65 moved to Parksville in that time! I am sure Blogger Don can confirm.

The premise is bogus and the senior migration irrelevant. It is all based on the current Alberta demographic. Much like the CPP was in the early years.
It would all blow up. It’s a political ploy. Don’t fall for it.

#99 Smoking Man on 11.20.19 at 12:10 am

Don’t do it, never try to be poet on wild turkey..
…….
I don’t like to write I’m just acting in my compulsion, it feels like torcher to turn
A natural thought into a reasonable sentance. I don’t like that I can only see words
When most see pictures, or when I see pictures I obsess about finding the
Right words.

I hate dreaming when all I ever searched for was a vision,
I hate being good at pretending to listen when I truly cannot hear sound.
I hate crying when I am a liar because I am.so.good.at pretending to.be sincere
I hate that my passion is connected to my anger and drive and destroys my resilience as I make a dollar in pain and lose my 2 cents in my senserity honesty and sel f respect.

I used to belive in reason but that is a gift I have not been blessed with,
I hate the truth as it is burden I am reluctant to speak for if I do,
I lose brothers , not for the hardships it comes from a powerful realization instead of encouragement I provide no judgment just questions but from the
Irrational responses from thier truth in the desperation of protecting their
False image.
I belive in God as much as I believe in mirrors ,for the beauty of a
Bible is finding a solution through 1000 verses and if you take 1000 selfies
You can always pick the one you love most as a true reflection of self.

This self is interchangeable ,adaptable it grows it retracts it lives it dies
Image is like thought

good ideas are.beautiful roses , bad ideas are weeds,
The ideas that are beautiful hurt us yet we never take time to understand

The importance of not being able to kill a weed however we understand the
Destruction of nourishing such negative views of one’s self. A weed cannot be killed however
A rose can be beautiful but not as beautiful as other roses.

I sometimes want to grow more weeds after all a dandelion is once referred to as gods tooth.
It cannot be bought or sold , small innocent children give the gift of a dandelion to their mothers , and when a dandelion does we wish upon the seeds that spread across nations. A dandelion doesn’t ask to be grown nor does it need nurturing it is the true formation of one’s self, a rose may win a garden show but her pedals die and after one day we start searching for a new rose , however a dandelion shows up and lives outside of condemnation it is innocent as much as it is irregular some people grow up wanting to be roses, others grow upunderstanimg we are all dandelion and those hopeless people share their dreams acrpss.field s across humanity it self

The rose dies the dandelion grows stronger. An eminent truth in the side of humanity
We all want to discard as a page that is irrelevant ,

Be the wish upon innocent breath
Be a thought that cannot die
Be rooted and hardened with no pedals
Be nourishment to those who use us to fly

Be reason in pain ,be silence when it’s loud
Be a year in a drought be a beat when a heart stops ,
Be a thought without reason be a storm out of season ,
Be a comforting pain in a wrong pleasure be time when
There is nothing left ,be right be wrong be sideways
Be the wind and spread.
Be onesmall piecee of puzzle of the picture
You created in your head , for if you don’t connect ,
You cannot be dead there’s nothing wrong
with being incomplete
You can still lose all your peices ,
And thank god.for.being incomplete

So I digress wake up new day
Dry your years dear boy ,

There is always tomorrow …

Passion is pain
Dreams are visions
Sound is dead
Thought Is silent
Eyes are tears

#100 Ronaldo on 11.20.19 at 12:42 am

#47 Timmy on 11.19.19 at 6:15 pm
So why doesn’t the govt force higher CPP contributions? You can’t look after yourself, then we’ll require you to contibute more up front so you will have a higher pension/
——————————————————————
That is the governments intention but the people that would be most negatively affected would be those at the bottom of the income scale (as usual) since their GIS would be clawed back more than it is today (50% or more) and they would be forced to part with money now that they need to live on. Sacrifice income now to be taxed greater at a later date. Hardly seems fair.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/cpp-reform-whats-changing-and-how-it-will-affectyou/article30551445/

#101 Ronaldo on 11.20.19 at 12:48 am

#69 Wibur on 11.19.19 at 7:13 pm
59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?
—————————————————————
You’d be a fool not to. Doesn’t appear that you will be suffering one way or the other. Probably cover most of your mortgage interest with interest rates at 2.5%.

#102 Sail Away on 11.20.19 at 12:53 am

#82 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:05 pm
#59 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 6:49 pm

Yes, definitely avoid debt. Other than that, I’d say don’t worry too much if you don’t seem to be getting ahead when you’re young.

Buffett made 97% of his fortune after age 52 and Charlie Munger didn’t start his investment partnership until his 40’s.

Age and craftiness are an advantage
—— –

I guess it depends on what the grand plan is. For us, it was investing only, nothing else.

For us, the path we took, we needed every one of those 21 years to get where we are now, and I would not condone wasting a minute getting started unless you have an avenue to pump in huge dollars later on in life

————————————-

Yep, it takes a long time and good personal finance along the way. I see lots of folks in their 30’s and 40’s stressing out because they feel they don’t have enough and haven’t done enough to be comfortable in retirement.

I spent my 20’s in the army and school, 30’s working for others and 40’s so far running my own firm. The big killer for most people is debt, so it comes down to making good financial decisions through your life… if people haven’t made good decisions and saddled themselves with massive debt, then they very well might be screwed rather than being ok.

On the other hand, if they’ve retired most debt by mid-40’s, they should be ok even without a lot of other savings. It’s usually these people who are nervous, because they are fiscally prudent with personal finance and feel they’ve missed 20 years of compounding.

These folks still have 20 or more years to build their funds, so should mostly be ok. On the other hand, people like you who started earlier will be much more ok, or ready to stop working when you want.

Learning about finance is so important. A person can easily knock 10-15-20 years off the time to financial independence. People who don’t manage or blindly let others manage their finances because they’re too busy don’t realize what they’re doing. It’s the ’employee’ vs ‘owner’ mindset toward one’s own life.

#103 Sail Away on 11.20.19 at 1:20 am

I have no patience with, or sympathy for anyone, millenial or otherwise claiming that things are harder now than for my generation.

My exact path is open to all of them: 6 years in the military, who will then pay for your university engineering degree, then… and this is important… go up north where salaries are high, advancement is fast, and housing is subsidized. Establish yourself there and after that, move anywhere you want.

Why anyone would choose to take on crippling school debt or start a career in a massively expensive city is beyond me. And then have the gall to claim I had it EASY!

Life hinges on choices. It’s not my generation’s fault when you make dumb ones.

#104 DON on 11.20.19 at 1:27 am

#43 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 6:09 pm

… Divorce rates are starting to drop a little with the Mils. Yes, probably because the less educated Millennial Men are actively avoiding marriage.

*********

They also haven’t experience a nasty recession or recessions like the Boomers and early Gen X marriages did. Think of all those highly leveraged ones, keeping up with their friends and neighbours, sleepless nights, monthly payments out the ying yang. I don’t think the movies over yet!

#105 BS on 11.20.19 at 1:44 am

There was a good reason 65 was set as the retirement age for a government pension back in 1935. Life expectancy at the time was 61. Surprise!

In other words the idea was you work until you drop.

The inescapable conclusions: retirement won’t happen for large numbers of people who will have no choice but to work until they drop.

In other words the good old days the millennials lust for. I am not sure it is such a bad thing for people to work long past 65 years old. Personally I won’t retire until I can retire in style. I still may not retire until long after I can. Working gives you purpose. What is the point of retirement sitting around all day. Boring. I would rather work 3 weeks then take a nice vacation for week over sitting around watching TV. The retirees I envy are rich. No other way to do it. Otherwise keep working.

#106 T on 11.20.19 at 2:04 am

#6 BillyBob on 11.19.19 at 3:45 pm
#3 MF on 11.19.19 at 3:17 pm
#93 T,

“Incredible, a 3 year old article about what Toronto might be is 50 years. Very insightful and relevant… /s

I’m not a fan of Toronto lately either, but do try better than cherry picking ridiculous articles as supporting evidence of your points of view.

MF wins this one, hands down”

-Honestly winning a debate against IH is pretty impossible. He’s damn good. Thanks T.

MF

====================================================

Nope.

The age of the article is a non sequitur. The article was talking about Toronto 50 years from now, so the fact that it’s 3 years old is inconsequential. It’s still completely relevant, unless of course in the last three years:

– immigration levels have dropped;
– people have stopped aging;
– people have started marrying more;
– public infrastructure development has increased exponentially.

Except that NONE of these has happened or is happening. It’s patently obvious that every factor mentioned in the article is completely on target and then some.

But then, I guess you and “T” would have had to read the article to grasp that. Much easier to ignore/dismiss things we don’t agree with.

—-

The article uses a few data points and mixes in vast assumptions based on short term trends continuing for 5 decades. It’s basically an opinion piece and referencing it as pure facts supporting biased points of view is completely nonsensical.

It’s not about dismissing something I don’t agree with, it’s about dismissing something which is full of so many assumptions it can hardly be called factual.

Similar to how you assume I didn’t read the article, assumptions are not facts. And, in fact, you are wrong.

#107 Buy? Curious? on 11.20.19 at 3:04 am

Can I say it? Can I say the catch phrase that is sweeping the nation?!? Here it goes!

Ok, Boomer.

I love it!

Oh, I’m starting a petition to have Don Cherry removes from the Hockey Hall of Fame. Not because of his anti-immigration views but because of the damaged he’s done to millions of kids with that “Old time hockey” and violence in hockey. Think of all the concussions kids have suffered because of this guy.

Ok, Boomers. (Plural)

#108 waggily tail on 11.20.19 at 3:30 am

#18 Lost…but not leased on 11.19.19 at 4:59 pm
OLD JOKE:

Q: Why do males tend to die sooner than females?

A: Because they want to!

……

The way I heard it:
Married men typically live longer than bachelors (propabaly due to the healthy influence of their wives), but married men are more willing to go to war and die on foreign soil.

#109 SimplyPut7 on 11.20.19 at 5:44 am

#93 Bob Dog on 11.19.19 at 9:15 pm

People living in Canada are free to move anywhere they want, there are thousands of cities with lower costs of living than larger cities such as greater Vancouver or Toronto areas. Most Canadians do not have to rent for the rest of their lives. The homeownership dream is not dead if people are willing to move.

As for your comment on protests around the world, the world has always had some places in turmoil. Social media just shows how bad things are in real-time and mainstream media or state-run/government media are not able to control the entire narrative anymore.

Other than the Hong Kong protests and the EU’s willingness to accept immigrants which has led to mass immigration to their region, I haven’t seen anything on social media that is “new”.

#110 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 11.20.19 at 6:31 am

Clearly Canada is a train wreck about to happen. It is time for Alberta to jump off this train before it crashes and burns.

#111 Don Cherry - Realtor on 11.20.19 at 7:40 am

You people!

I am 85 years old. How can I possibly retire if I don’t get some commissions from property sales?

You people need to call me up and start buying, and soon!

You people want all of Canada’s milk and honey and you don’t want to give me a lousy 5% commission?

Sheesh!

#112 Taternuts on 11.20.19 at 7:43 am

Love all the huckleberries complaining about their hydro rates, without knowing how power in Ontario ranks compared to other North American regions.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/data/documents-donnees/pdf/comparison-electricity-prices.pdf

#113 not 1st on 11.20.19 at 7:54 am

Guess all that govt debt still cant buy a functioning economy. Canary in the coal mine for residential construction where we sell houses to each other and call that GDP.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/lowes-is-closing-34-underperforming-stores-in-canada

#114 Steve French on 11.20.19 at 8:05 am

FREE HONG KONG!!!

Those students are giving a master class in what it takes to fight for freedom and democracy.

I reckon even Don Cherry could take a lesson or 2 from those young students.

Democracy is never just handed to you on a silver platter. You always need to fight to get it, and fight to preserve it.

All true freedom loving Canadians should stand with free Hong Kong.

#115 TurnerNation on 11.20.19 at 8:12 am

Some say that the Railroad strikes on now will hurt farmers getting grain to market. Is this true?
If so , coincidental or another step in dismantling Kanada’s industry?
The time to strike us is now, thing are moving very very fast in the agenda. Watch for more Culture Cancellation too esp around national sports.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.20.19 at 8:14 am

@#88 Donni G
” Of course you have it all figured out.”
+++++

Yep.
Thats why I left.
Been back to Cowtown on business a few times.
Not much has changed.
The buildings down town are taller.
The suburbs are further out.
The zoo looks outdated.
No ocean views.
But the Bow does flood occasionally ….not the same.
Enjoy the housing meltdown and the recession….just like 38 years ago..

#117 NoName on 11.20.19 at 8:19 am

#101 Taternuts on 11.20.19 at 7:43 am
Love all the huckleberries complaining about their hydro rates, without knowing how power in Ontario ranks compared to other North American regions.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/data/documents-donnees/pdf/comparison-electricity-prices.pdf

Funny thing those table are. I wonder what criteria they used to compare, lets pick most expensive places in us and compare…

Here are other places in us that have running water and hydro at 1/3 of the price of my SF or that 3rd city.

https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/

#118 Jenny Wang on 11.20.19 at 8:48 am

Mills are quickly reversing the longevity numbers as stats show they are falling into poor health and not seeking treatment. It looks like the climate hysteria about “12 months to live” is having an extreme adverse effect. Boomers might outlive the Mills, sweet revenge.

Meanwhile, Trudeau just screwed Canada on the foreign file again, berating Israel on behalf of radical elements of his Euro Liberal backers. Canada loses another great friend, sad. Obama stabbed Israel in the back on his last day in office. Looks like the Trump Haters in Trudeau’s cabinet has succeeded in getting the ousted Freedland to do the same.

I’m in Israel right now, beautiful people, a Paradise of democracy and modernity. It isn’t just Palestinians rejecting the modern world, the Middle East is stuck in a twilight zone of ignorance with only Israel standing up for Civilization.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/271951

Trudeau and Freedland, rejecting our friends and protecting those who reject everything we hold dear. How many friends and partners has Trudeau lost for us? Too many, and why? What responsible leader does this? It’s insane.

#119 TurnerNation on 11.20.19 at 8:58 am

Ah-ha I see T2 bumped up Freeland in the cabinet.
I’d already posted her as my prediction for our next PM – given the UN signals and leanings I’d seen.
It’s all about Predictive Programing these dsys.

#120 Say my name on 11.20.19 at 9:09 am

#88 Flipjack Charlie on 11.19.19 at 8:45 pm
Possible NDP proposal? Move OAS from age 65 to age 18. Change the name to Adult Security Stipend. Increase current amount to $1,000 per month. Immediately raise millions of Canadians out of poverty.
————

Got my ASS cheque today.

#121 Blog Bunny on 11.20.19 at 9:11 am

Garth,

So how much money one needs to FIRE around 40? You always said the guys from Millenial revolution do not have enough and live on the edge of poverty, but nobody wants to advance a hypothetical number. A few advisors I have seen gave me bullshit answers like it depends… A very frustrated bunny here.

#122 Tony on 11.20.19 at 9:21 am

I retired at age 35 and have two pensions. I started working at age 18. Worked for local 173 in IATSE as a projectionist. One I worked a grand total of 18 months (paper pension) and it pays over 20 grand a year starting in 2028 for life. Why because some Jewish guy slapped everything into a 50 year strip bond way back in September of 1982. Yes this is a true story. The other one is a LIRA about $250,000 just GIC’s throughout all those years, no stocks.

#123 Phylis on 11.20.19 at 9:48 am

#114 Taternuts on 11.20.19 at 7:43 am Good April report, guess which province will have the greatest increase in the next report.

#124 Sail Away on 11.20.19 at 10:23 am

#120 Jenny Wang on 11.20.19 at 8:48 am

Trudeau and Freedland, rejecting our friends and protecting those who reject everything we hold dear. How many friends and partners has Trudeau lost for us? Too many, and why? What responsible leader does this? It’s insane.

—————————————-

Trudeau and Freeland will always do the opposite of the Trump, regardless of it being for or against Canada’s best interest.

#125 Wilbur on 11.20.19 at 10:35 am

#84 @#69 Wibur
“59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?”
++++
No.
You now have enough money to change that gawd awful first name…..
You sir are a very small minded person, Wilbur is not even close to what my name is.
All I was doing was asking a simple question, don’t be jealous because I was smart investing my money and chose to save for retirement.

#126 Tony on 11.20.19 at 10:47 am

Re: #107 BS on 11.20.19 at 1:44 am

If you play a lot of sports you can play all of them around the clock 365 days a year if you retire.

#127 Mattl on 11.20.19 at 10:51 am

I find it hard to believe that property ownership is the reason people aren’t saving.

40% of Canadians are mortgage free, and 30% don’t own RE. Clearly renters and those that are mortgage free are not saving as well.

I’d be interested in looking at the savings of renters vs home owners. This blog is full of anecdotes about poor homeowners and rich renters but the stats in this post indicate that NO ONE is saving so better off having a house at the end.

#128 M.T. on 11.20.19 at 10:52 am

***They are the propaganda arm of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Yeah. I thought that as I got older I would hear colleagues begin wising up to the ol’ CBC propaganda machine, but nope, here I am at age 40 still hearing people unironically listening to CBC and considering it “reasonable”.

#129 the Jaguar on 11.20.19 at 10:57 am

Peter MacKay playing ‘possum’ on page A4 of the National Post today. Didn’t want to fade from peoples memories just yet…………

#130 Sail Away on 11.20.19 at 11:06 am

#127 Wilbur on 11.20.19 at 10:35 am
#84 @#69 Wibur

“59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?”
++++
No.
You now have enough money to change that gawd awful first name…..

—————————
Wilbur is not even close to what my name is.

—————————

Of course not, it’s obviously Wibur as in your first post. I’d be peeved too…

#131 BillyBob on 11.20.19 at 11:16 am

#108 T on 11.20.19 at 2:04 am

The article uses a few data points and mixes in vast assumptions based on short term trends continuing for 5 decades. It’s basically an opinion piece and referencing it as pure facts supporting biased points of view is completely nonsensical.

It’s not about dismissing something I don’t agree with, it’s about dismissing something which is full of so many assumptions it can hardly be called factual.

Similar to how you assume I didn’t read the article, assumptions are not facts. And, in fact, you are wrong.

===================================================

Any projections or predictions into the future are of course going to contain assumptions. To most that would be self-evident. I don’t believe it was ever offered as “pure fact”, more like intelligent analysis based on current and past trends.

As you point out, the article does contain data points. All of which have only continued to trend in the same direction in the intervening years since the article published. That is a fact.

You, on the other hand, present no data to the contrary. Instead are limited to rhetoric using words like “biased” and “nonsensical”. There is nothing about the data that is either.

You are free to present your own contrary opinion, but if you want it to be given any respect whatsoever you may wish to include something to support it.

#132 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 11:23 am

#105 Sail Away
I have no patience with, or sympathy for anyone, millenial or otherwise claiming that things are harder now than for my generation.

——
I don’t agree at all with this comment. I spent much of my 20s and early 30s training in my profession, paying back student debt, and being paid peanuts for many long (mostly enjoyable) hours of work. When I finally started earning something decent in the late 1990s, but with little savings and no gifting of a nickel from anyone, I was still able to purchase something decent for a family in Kits or Dunbar for around 500K.
Try that now. Good luck. Similar tear downs going for around 2.2M; perhaps an 800sq foot condo for 1Million will suit you. Or how about the 90 minute Langley to UBC commute each way? In my view it is much more difficult for miilenials to get a foothold in YVR than in the past. If you don’t have parents being able to gift you 100K or more to get started, might as well move on somewhere else. Way too much of a struggle. I am convinced it has much to do with the globalization of our local real estate market spearheaded by the previous corrupt BC Liberal Gov’t.

#133 Old Hand on 11.20.19 at 11:26 am

Figure it out #37:
Excellent post! Bogle’s formula describes the strategy we have followed for the last 30 years. It has been very successful for us and continues to be so in our retirement years. We retired in 2000, but in our case growth of our investments continued over the 2000s decade (and still continues). Maybe the Canadian market diverged from the US, but I suspect that the continuing success of the formula in our case probably demonstrates the difference between investing in “the market” vs. investing in a number of carefully chosen stocks, i.e. 90% of “the market” consists of duds, which is why we look upon ETFs sceptically (sorry, Garth!).

#134 Dharma Bum on 11.20.19 at 11:35 am

Now you can apply for your CPP at age 60, if you want (and you should). – Garth
——————————————————————–

Done. Already got the confirmation letter from Service Canada indicating when the direct deposits start.

Gas and groceries, here I come!

Thanks Garth.

#135 IHCTD9 on 11.20.19 at 11:53 am

#106 DON on 11.20.19 at 1:27 am

They also haven’t experience a nasty recession or recessions like the Boomers and early Gen X marriages did. Think of all those highly leveraged ones, keeping up with their friends and neighbours, sleepless nights, monthly payments out the ying yang. I don’t think the movies over yet!
___

Yep, there will be one or two SHTF events they will have to deal with!

I have to wonder on the flip side too. Traditionally, Women initiate like 65-70% of all divorces.

If the young Ladies today are having a tough time attracting an acceptable for marriage Male (and they are), then those who did find one and committed may well fight a lot harder to keep the marriage intact if troubles come.

If so, that would see less divorce (which we are), and the stats may eventually start showing that Women are filing less too.

Hence, these couples may have a lot more resilience navigating a SHTF event than the GenX/Boomer couples did.

Millennial Women as a generation have more to lose in the case of divorce than pretty much any other Women since second wave Feminism decreed Women should get educated and work. I’ll bet they understand this too – especially if they make more than hubby does…

#136 Hookshott on 11.20.19 at 11:59 am

#107 BS on 11.20.19 at 1:44 am
There was a good reason 65 was set as the retirement age for a government pension back in 1935. Life expectancy at the time was 61. Surprise!

In other words the idea was you work until you drop.

The inescapable conclusions: retirement won’t happen for large numbers of people who will have no choice but to work until they drop.
…………
In other words the good old days the millennials lust for. I am not sure it is such a bad thing for people to work long past 65 years old. Personally I won’t retire until I can retire in style. I still may not retire until long after I can. Working gives you purpose. What is the point of retirement sitting around all day. Boring. I would rather work 3 weeks then take a nice vacation for week over sitting around watching TV. The retirees I envy are rich. No other way to do it. Otherwise keep working.
………….
News Flash! All the people I know who are retired, including myself, do NOT “sit around all day watching TV”! There are so many opportunities out there that are stimulating both mentally and physically as well as being extremely satisfying. I do not regret retiring at all…I have fit so much into these years that I would have missed out on if I had continued to work, which I could have done. Try it, you might be surprised…at least, there is the opportunity to be surprised if you make an effort to approach things the appropriate way…instead of sitting in front of the TV.

#137 Sail away on 11.20.19 at 12:02 pm

#134 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 11:23 am
#105 Sail Away

I have no patience with, or sympathy for anyone, millenial or otherwise claiming that things are harder now than for my generation.
——
I don’t agree at all with this comment.

In my view it is much more difficult for miilenials to get a foothold in YVR than in the past.

If you don’t have parents being able to gift you 100K or more to get started, might as well move on somewhere else.

—————————

Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.

#138 Richer on 11.20.19 at 12:06 pm

All this being said, when do we have an adult conversation about the sustainability of defined benefit pension plans?

It keeps me up at night knowing that these plans require more and more people (active employees and tax payers) to keep funneling money into them to keep the cash flow going.

#139 Don Guillermo on 11.20.19 at 12:12 pm

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.20.19 at 8:14 am
@#88 Donni G
” Of course you have it all figured out.”
+++++
Yep.
Thats why I left.
Been back to Cowtown on business a few times.
Not much has changed …. blah, blah, blah,

******************************************

I was pretty sure you’d need to get the last word in. Anyways , last time I saw a business man in Calgary from the LM he was selling cheap shoes. He missed the zoo and stuck with the VLTs.

Cheers

#140 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm

#139
Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.

——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.

#141 Gravy Train on 11.20.19 at 12:24 pm

#98 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 10:06 pm
“Thanks for the links!” You’re welcome. :)

#142 T on 11.20.19 at 12:25 pm

#133 BillyBob on 11.20.19 at 11:16 am

Any projections or predictions into the future are of course going to contain assumptions. To most that would be self-evident. I don’t believe it was ever offered as “pure fact”, more like intelligent analysis based on current and past trends.

As you point out, the article does contain data points. All of which have only continued to trend in the same direction in the intervening years since the article published. That is a fact.

You, on the other hand, present no data to the contrary. Instead are limited to rhetoric using words like “biased” and “nonsensical”. There is nothing about the data that is either.

You are free to present your own contrary opinion, but if you want it to be given any respect whatsoever you may wish to include something to support it.

—-

Thank you for helping prove my point. Assumptions are not facts, I don’t need to provide data to support this fact.

You can make some generational generalizations, however a 50 year projection using recent trends is no way to predict anything. 50 years is a long time, a lot will happen, much of which will not fit into any prediction models.

Now, I appreciate intelligent debate, but this is just not such as you don’t seem to understand the basis of my original objections. I’m also in not looking to find ‘respect’ on an anonymous message board, stop projecting your feelings onto others BillyBob.

#143 Ronaldo on 11.20.19 at 12:54 pm

Working gives you purpose. What is the point of retirement sitting around all day. Boring. I would rather work 3 weeks then take a nice vacation for week over sitting around watching TV. The retirees I envy are rich. No other way to do it. Otherwise keep working.
——————————————————————
Have been retired now going on 20 years and I can assure you that I don’t sit around watching TV. My wife and I are involved in many activities and are busier now than we were when we were working and raising children and we don’t consider ourselves rich. There are many things you can do in retirement that don’t involve high costs. I could name many. Sounds like you need to get off the couch out and get out more. If you believe that working is the only thing that gives you purpose I feel very sad for your spouse if you have one.

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.20.19 at 12:54 pm

@#127 Wilbur

You CHOSE Wilbur?!?!?
Wow.
Hey at least I know MY nom de plume is ridiculous.

I guess the old adage “money doesnt buy taste” is true.

#145 Flail Away on 11.20.19 at 1:17 pm

Thank god common sense has prevailed and Elon Musk will stand trial in the defamation lawsuit brought by the British cave explorer who actually participated in the rescue of the Thai kids. Poor Elon just never got over being called out after he made a big production of presenting a nonsensical solution to the problem of the trapped kids & coach.

Not to be outdone by his previous nonsense.. Elon argued that the case should be dismissed because his statement, a shortened version of the word pedophile, was a throwaway insult not to be construed as fact.

Hmmm.. how clueless and entitled do you have to be to think calling someone a pedo on twitter is no different than calling someone an idiot?

Good on the Brit for standing up to this elitist bully and good on the courts for standing strong. I hope the courts set a strong precedent that will deter other elites from such disgraceful behaviour.

Maybe Elon should have taken an ethics course when he was in school. Life is about balance & choices!

#146 MF on 11.20.19 at 1:33 pm

#133 BillyBob on 11.20.19 at 11:16

T doesn’t have to present any arguments. He was merely commenting as an observer to mine and IH’s debate.

If you had read my posts before, which you clearly did not, you would see that all evidence and data (published by multiple reputable sources with links posted here) pointed to the same conclusions:

-The GTA’s population growth is accelerating
-The GTA receives the most migratory inflow from other provinces, and within Ontario
-The majority of immigrants into Canada are from China and India (both in Asia), with these patterns accelerating not decelerating.
-Young families leaving the GTA is an act of desperation, not desire

Don’t believe me? Go look it up yourself.

MF

#147 site on 11.20.19 at 1:35 pm

What ever happened to the propertyinsight dot ca website?

Did the data embargo get to them?

#148 Don Guillermo on 11.20.19 at 1:38 pm

#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm
#139
Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.
——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.

*******************************************
#105 Sail Away on 11.20.19 at 1:20 am

… and this is important… go up north where salaries are high, advancement is fast, and housing is subsidized. Establish yourself there and after that, move anywhere you want.

********************************************
@yvr_lurker The above advice from “Sail Away” is one of the best a young person will find on this blog. Staying in an overpriced city and burying yourself in debt will ruin your life. This was applicable 40 years ago and still is.

#149 MF on 11.20.19 at 1:40 pm

144 T on 11.20.19 at 12:25 pm

“I’m also in not looking to find ‘respect’ on an anonymous message board, stop projecting your feelings onto others BillyBob”

-Eloquently put, as always.

BillyBob represents a lot of posters on here. Projection of their own failures on to others. Can be a whole generation of people, or..like in BillyBob’s case, Canada.

MF

#150 Jesse on 11.20.19 at 1:41 pm

#9 Some will win the lottery of life… on 11.19.19 at 4:04 pm
Good health. A good private pension with benefits for the family after working for one employer his/her whole working life. A good inheritance. A divorce free life.
Other’s will need the other type of lottery, but both types are very elusive now.
********************************

‘Good health’ is attainable, eat healthy and exercise, sex helps too ;)

‘Private pension’: these don’t exist anymore, and what are the odds your company can pay them out? This is a coming crisis no one wants to talk about. Aren’t pension funds driving negative interest rates?

‘Inheritance’: Ha! good luck with that, everyone is broke

‘A divorce free life’: Hahahaha! Divorce is almost guaranteed before the ink dries on your wedding certificate! I wonder if divorce has scared enough Gen Z men to just not get married? Marriage rates are down, so maybe?

#151 Sail away on 11.20.19 at 1:43 pm

#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm

Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.
——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.

——————————–

oh boy… I once wanted to work in Finland, but don’t speak the language or have any of the required credentials, so I chose to work here.

Maybe I should’ve petitioned the government to right the injustice against me instead?

#152 TurnerNation on 11.20.19 at 1:48 pm

MF that’s some super funny gatekeeping of yours.
Too dangerous, you mean like Nascar racing or something?
By your standard we should ignore Antartica, it’s just too dangerous and so boring. All ice!
No there;s nothing we can learn from the moon, just a bit of boring rock. Never going back there, if we ever did. (Should be child’s play today.)
Cancel all those Astronomy classes, that stuff is friggen boring up there. Nothing up there of interest mate.

#153 Jesse on 11.20.19 at 2:00 pm

#34 AGuyInVancouver on 11.19.19 at 5:41 pm
#30 not 1st on 11.19.19 at 5:22 pm

Given Alberta’s sad history of finacial mismanagement (how’s that Heritage Fund going) it is more likely Canada will have to bail out Krazy Kenney’s Pension Plan, should Albertans be stupid enough to let it go ahead.
*************************

Why do people think Alberta could have a massive ‘Heritage Fund’ like Norway? Alberta is not a sovereign nation. It’s impossible if Alberta has to send billions to Quebec each year via transfer payments? Technically speaking, Alberta is in debt right now because it has to send billions to Quebec.

#154 Sail away on 11.20.19 at 2:14 pm

#148 Sail away on 11.20.19 at 1:43 pm
#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm

Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.
——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.

——————————

Sometimes when I’m sailing, there’s land in the way, so I choose to go around instead of expecting someone to dredge a channel.

I’ve drunk too much a few times and felt awful the next day.. Now I choose to drink moderately, but it might actually be better to sue the distillery?

The truth is that we all choose our path in life. I strongly advocate for the personally advantageous path.

#155 IHCTD9 on 11.20.19 at 2:29 pm

#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm
#139
Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.

——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.
_____

YVR is done. The show hasn’t been worth the ticket price for a long time now. The best thing you can do is usher your kids out of Van.

Frankly, I’d get the kids right out of BC altogether – the perennial lefty governments destroyed Van in under 30 years, but still are still getting elected – so no one has learned anything yet. Plus the insurance rates are nutz (government again) and the big quake is well overdue.

The YVR kids need a helping hand in life, and that hand will turn them towards the exit door, and give them a gentle push.

#156 IHCTD9 on 11.20.19 at 2:34 pm

#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm
#139
Yep, times change. So live somewhere else. Choices.

——
Exactly. Pull up the ladder now that you have made it, and who gives a shite about how the next generation will fare in our major cities. Tough shit. We can all live in shoeboxes in the sky just like in major Asian cities; this is the developers idea and definition of a World Class City. I rather choose the route of voting for parties who understand and care about this issue, unlike yourself.
_____

YVR is done. The show hasn’t been worth the ticket price for a long time now. The best thing you can do is usher your kids out of Van.

Frankly, I’d get the kids right out of BC altogether – the perennial lefty governments destroyed Van in under 30 years, but are still getting elected – so no one has learned anything yet. Plus the insurance rates are nutz (government again) and the big quake is well overdue.

The YVR kids need a helping hand in life, and that hand will turn them towards the exit door, and give them a gentle push.

#157 kommykim on 11.20.19 at 2:43 pm

RE:#123 Blog Bunny on 11.20.19 at 9:11 am
So how much money one needs to FIRE around 40?

======================================

That depends on how much you currently spend vs how much you earn.

Mr. Money Mustache talks about that here:
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

#158 NoName on 11.20.19 at 2:58 pm

@ T to Billy Bob

Respect and intelligent debate. And that was funny, did you type that with straight face?

#159 Shawn Allen on 11.20.19 at 3:25 pm

#69 Wibur on 11.19.19 at 7:13 pm

59 years of age 3.5 M liquid invested.
500 thousand dollar mortgage
Retired at 55 should I take CPP at 60?

*******************************
Does not really matter a whole lot given your finances. But you will not take it early because anyone who has accumulated $3.5 million liquid is too focused on saving to forego the 30% or so for rest of life raise that will come from waiting to take CPP at 65.

P.S. This is not a dating or cheating site if that is what you were getting at with your impressive show of assets.

If you are married and your spouse has little or no CPP then wait until 65 or even 70 since the spouse will get a survivor pension and may need it as they may blow through the savings in some fashion. CPP is a guaranteed DB. Work to make it bigger not smaller.

If you (or both) die early and never collect, you will not miss it one bit.

#160 IHCTD9 on 11.20.19 at 3:40 pm

#148 MF on 11.20.19 at 1:33 pm

Don’t believe me? Go look it up yourself.

MF
___

I decided to take your challenge and look it up.

**”-The GTA’s population growth is accelerating”**

Agreed, thanks to immigration. I’ve never asserted otherwise.

**”-The GTA receives the most migratory inflow from other provinces, and within Ontario”**

I can’t say about other provinces, but within Ontario, you are incorrect. The quoted info originates from StatsCan as posted multiple times previously.

“There is, however, an area where an exodus is undeniably true – and is accelerating.

The Big Three metros are losing young Canadians on an intraprovincial basis – that is, the number of in-province residents moving to those cities is smaller than those making the reverse move.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/gen-y-money/article-canadas-big-city-millennial-exodus-is-greatly-exaggerated-rbc/

**”-The majority of immigrants into Canada are from China and India (both in Asia), with these patterns accelerating not decelerating.”**

Not wrong for the present, but I also believe those folks with those Doctoral Degrees at Rotman are probably not wrong about the future either.

Do you think China and India will improve and increase in wealth in the decades to come? If you do, then you are thinking like those folks at Rotman who contributed to the article.

“-Young families leaving the GTA is an act of desperation, not desire”

This is just opinion, so I will retort with an equally meaningless anecdote: All my buds who moved to the GTA can’t wait to get the hell out of there – even though the city made them rich via RE.

Here is some good data surrounding the phenomena of Toronto youth and kids exiting Toronto:

https://medium.com/@MikePMoffatt/examining-the-exodus-out-of-toronto-b10384daffb5

#161 T on 11.20.19 at 4:00 pm

#160 NoName on 11.20.19 at 2:58 pm
@ T to Billy Bob

Respect and intelligent debate. And that was funny, did you type that with straight face?

—-

Always.

I have a lot of respect for many of the minds here. Debate can be very constructive. Arguing for the sake or arguing, not so much.

#162 Renter's Revenge! on 11.20.19 at 4:03 pm

#123 Blog Bunny on 11.20.19 at 9:11 am
Garth,

So how much money one needs to FIRE around 40? You always said the guys from Millenial revolution do not have enough and live on the edge of poverty, but nobody wants to advance a hypothetical number. A few advisors I have seen gave me bullshit answers like it depends… A very frustrated bunny here.

==================================

I was gonna say “it depends” but then I read your comment again.

The Millennial Revolution couple (FIREcracker and Wanderer?) had $1M between the two of them when quit at 31. That only produces $40k/year at 4% (the safe withdrawal rate; which gives you a 95% chance of not running out of money if you retire at 65 and make it to 90 using a balanced portfolio). And that’s for two people, who are probably healthier now than they will be at 70. They are supposedly still doing things that make money though, just not stuff they hate (like their old jobs), and not as much money as they used to make. Cue the Retirement Police sirens.

I think $1M per person would be a better start. Also, having a flexible budget that lets you cut back on costs during the lean years would also be a good idea. For example, make sure your basic living expenses are half your budget, and fun the other half. Then you find cheaper ways to have fun when the market dips to avoid depleting your capital.

#163 Don Guillermo on 11.20.19 at 4:24 pm

#158 IHCTD9 on 11.20.19 at 2:34 pm
#142 yvr_lurker on 11.20.19 at 12:23 pm
_____
YVR is done. The show hasn’t been worth the ticket price for a long time now. The best thing you can do is usher your kids out of Van.
Frankly, I’d get the kids right out of BC altogether – the perennial lefty governments destroyed Van in under 30 years, but are still getting elected – so no one has learned anything yet. Plus the insurance rates are nutz (government again) and the big quake is well overdue.
The YVR kids need a helping hand in life, and that hand will turn them towards the exit door, and give them a gentle push

*******************************************
Unfortunately, most friends and family will try to discourage you from leaving. I know mine did. Making that first decision will be the toughest part. The next tough part will be not running home the first time you hit a speed bump. Then your on your way.

#164 Scott on 11.22.19 at 4:49 am

@#7

Worrying about millennials supporting you is a valid concern. Can confirm this as a millennial with no intent on supporting you or anyone else in Canada lol.
I suppose I’ll have somewhat helped by forking over 15 years of taxes/cpp/ei etc and not sticking around to be on the receiving end of any of it. I plan on being taxed some where between 0 and 15% depending on which beach we choose to reside on where they will tax my global income much more favourably than in Canada where they would treat my money earned abroad as though it came from a maple tree. I love Canada very much but not 30-50 cents on the dollar worth.