Fear of heights

As 2019 began Bay Street legend David Rosenberg told clients falling show ticket prices on Broadway were reminiscent of 2007, and they should get set for “the high (and rising) risk of a recession.” Like, move to cash.

Since then the Toronto stock market – despite an utter collapse in weed outfits – is up 19%. The US market (despite the trade war and you-know-who) is ahead 24%. Boring balanced & diversified portfolios are clocking in around 12%. Bond prices are down, yields are up, the inverted curve thingy is history, corporate profits are A-ok and there’s no recession. Not even close.

But fear sells. The people who pump gold and crypto depend on it. [email protected] with her bevy of GICs and HISAs thrives on scardey-cat investors. Same with the insurance floggers and their segregated funds – sucking off massive fees so investors can have a guarantee of getting their money back in a decade. (There hasn’t been a decade yet when it was required.)

Now, some people say today is different and it’s completely understandable to be frightened poopless. Trump is unpredictable. Hong Kong’s a powderkeg. Syria-Turkey-Kurds-Iran, whew. What if Brexit happens? Or Wexit? Or Putin’s nuke cruise missiles blow up again? Or China starts its world domination?

Others worry about debt. We’re pickled in it. Nobody has any cash. Interest rates are a joke. How can this last? And what about governments? After all, Washington alone accounts for a third of the entire world’s government debt and there are zero plans for reining it in. If the States goes down, we’re but a dustbunny in the global Hoovering. Look at this chart form the scary bear dude at Wolf Street. Yikes.

So are stock markets which have hit new highs and handed double-digit returns to investors now financial IEDs? Do they need to blow because they’ve inflated so much? Is the prudent thing to take money off the table – or is this another Rosenberg moment when doing so results in a serious loss of wealth?

I asked my suspender-snapping, Porsche-driving, trophy-wife, prodigy-children, omniscient portfolio manager buddies Doug and Ryan for a few words on this topic, which will be followed by the only investment advice you will ever need.

The first point Doug makes is that highs are meaningless since 77% of the time markets go up (like the economy). How can you beat those odds? For example in 2017 the Dow hit a new high 70 times. If you’d sold in fear when it touched 20,000 (as Rosie suggested), you’d have given up 40% since it now sits at 28,000. Besides, markets get momentum. This one continues to push ahead.

“Now, you can argue, as many bears do, that it’s different this time. For example, valuations have become richer. (My rebuttal would be that valuations almost always exceed long-term averages in bull markets.) However, whether it’s truly different this time or not, is not the point. It’s a mistake to isolate one arbitrary fact as proof of a future outcome: “Markets have done well, time to sell.” This is not a defensible argument.”

As you know, Ryan goes on BNN so I’m not sure about him anymore. But I do agree with his key point – bull markets don’t die of old age. Instead they’re always murdered – by central banks (rates rise) or some external shock (like a housing crash)

“Keep it simple. Last year markets were weighed down by Trump’s trade war and Federal Reserve interest rate tightening. This year markets are rallying on Fed cuts and the growing prospect of a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world. If they finalize a deal (Phase 1) this will remove a major risk to the global economy and equity markets. Then we’re left with a US/global economy, while slowing, is still growing at a decent clip, and very well could accelerate in 2020 if the trade war subsides. This could then lead to higher earnings growth in 2020, which could be the driver for further gains in 2020. With an accommodative Fed, an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold, the prospect for stronger earnings in 2020, and confirming bullish technical trends, as evidenced by the new highs, we remain bullish and see further gains. But we temper out bullish outlook by currently investing in lower risk equities such as low volatility stocks, REITs and blue chip dividends stocks just in case one of the risks (Trump’s trade war, Brexit, Hong Kong etc.) were to materialize and derail this ongoing economic expansion.”

Yes, debt and turmoil surround us. But investors continue to make bank, based largely on the prospects of the US economy, supportive CBs, easing trade tensions, money-making corps and an ocean of cash that is departing the safety of bonds and cash and flowing back into equities. Yes, corrections are inevitable along with economic slowdowns. But they’ve always been temporary and relatively short. Even during the 2008-10 meltdown, investors who stayed invested and ignored the storm with balanced portfolios did just fine – averaging +5% a year, while those who bailed lost a bundle. Fear is an emotion, not a strategy.  It comes with a price. Don’t pay it.

And here’s all you really need to know: Invest when you have the money and stay invested until you need it. All in between is but noise.

110 comments ↓

#1 Bill Spicer on 11.18.19 at 4:32 pm

FIRST!

#2 Dave on 11.18.19 at 4:36 pm

Vancouver Real Estate prices are Crashing

https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/five-examples-of-metro-vancouver-homeowners-losing-big-in-a-falling-market

#3 FreeBird on 11.18.19 at 4:37 pm

And here’s all you really need to know: Invest when you have the money and stay invested until you need it. All in between is but noise.
————————-

If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough. -Albert Einstein

#4 JacqueShellacque on 11.18.19 at 5:05 pm

So…what about the debts? The options are repay all, pay some, pay none. Repay all is out of the question (too much, voters won’t allow reduced consumption and services to do so). Pay some is tricky (have to drag feet and negotiate). Pay none probably means some near-catastrophic event that wipes out the debts or makes people not care (or the people who would care aren’t around anymore).

#5 NoName on 11.18.19 at 5:15 pm

Question for smarter than i, how does debt, tax and hording cash affect velocity of the money? I am thinking money now days very slow…

#6 not 1st on 11.18.19 at 5:18 pm

Well the bank cant repo your assets if they go bankrupt too, so party on I guess. Nothing else to do.

And world debt is $250T, which makes the US less than 10% of the time bomb. I would throw in with MAGA at this point.

Oh and there is no more destructive scenario in the universe than Trudeau at the helm with Singh, Blocheads and May whispering in his ear. That’s Thanos style snap your fingers wealth destruction.

Global sovereign debt is $69 trillion. US represents one third. – Garth

#7 debt? on 11.18.19 at 5:20 pm

”Yes, debt and turmoil surround us. But investors continue to make bank,”

……….

who cares about debt? as long as the SPY is increasing and we are ‘making bank’ the debt is a silly talking point, lol

#8 not 1st on 11.18.19 at 5:29 pm

Global sovereign debt is $69 trillion. US represents one third. – Garth

——-

Much higher and concentrated outside the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/15/global-debt-surged-to-a-record-250-trillion-in-the-first-half-of-2019-led-by-the-us-and-china.html

Global debt is an amalgam of all borrowings/bond markets. My reference was to sovereign debt. The US represents a third of it. – Garth

#9 Sam on 11.18.19 at 5:30 pm

But we temper out bullish outlook by currently investing in lower risk equities such as low volatility stocks, REITs and blue chip dividends stocks just in case one of the risks

…………..

‘tactically balanced’. Active management loses, why do people think otherwise? Walk the walk

#10 Mr Fundamental on 11.18.19 at 5:34 pm

I agree with this 100%:
“And here’s all you really need to know: Invest when you have the money and stay invested until you need it. All in between is but noise.”

Why do people make things so complicated?

#11 I’m stupid on 11.18.19 at 5:36 pm

Boy is new housing slow in the gta. I haven’t worked in 3 weeks. I’ve cut my discretionary spending to zero. I wonder how many others are in the same situation. 2009 wasn’t even this bad. Last year the grinch stole Christmas (Santa rally didn’t happen) this year I don’t know when I’ll get another paycheque so Christmas will be toned down.

I have enough invested to last 15 years but no one likes to live on savings. I’m thankful that when times were good I saved a bundle otherwise I’d be really stressed.

#12 Time In Market on 11.18.19 at 5:45 pm

It is all about the “Time In The Market” or: how long your money stays invested in the market.

Forget about peaks and valleys… Long Term is up. Always.

It is impossible to put your money in the TSX, for say your pension, or your toddler’s education, and then take it out 15 years later with a loss.

You will take it out with a profit. Plus the dividends you got paid for holding them.

It is a no-brainer.

#13 TC on 11.18.19 at 5:47 pm

But….but……..but…. the REPO market is the market making the most noise right now. Very few are talking about it. Trying to let us all know that all is well and all is contained…………..until it’s not!

Deutsche Bank and CLO’s & Derivatives of the CLO’s. This is the next black swan event. If Deutsche Bank blows up then look out below world………….this will start the Debt Bomb domino contagion effect and the economic carnage released from this puppy we will not recover from in our remaining lifetimes. It’s pretty certain the music has already stopped around the middle of this past September and somebody else has already gone first!

Buckle Up.

#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm

Yesterday, the following listing that sold in Vancouver was posted to show what a half million buys there.

https://idx.myrealpage.com/wps/-/facebook~1,preview~1,_wf~520/mylistings/414/listing.r2382156-13385-232-street-maple-ridge-v4r-2r6.89118163

Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21078164/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-198-lakeshore-leamington

Wotz in your area?

#15 the Jaguar on 11.18.19 at 5:58 pm

“…Or China starts its world domination?”
“…or some external shock..”

A recent out of country trip of the Jaguar coincided with the 70th anniversary of the Peoples Republic of China and the Jag caught some of the parade events on Chinese Television Global Network (english version) in the country I was visiting. The celebrations included an hours long televised parade of military equipment, rockets, planes etc., and endless military marching in perfect formation, in spotless uniforms, with faces beaming with pride for their country. It was impressive. Canada suddenly seemed small in the greater scheme of things. With each passing day the violence and protests in Hong Kong escalate. Not sure how long this is going to be allowed to go on before there is a ‘smackdown’. That could have an effect on markets, if only temporarily.
No country in the world will be able to come to their aid as the cost would be too great. Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of the consequences of our actions or lack thereof.
Garth’s advice to stay invested and ignore the noise is sound as always, but the timid may want to invest in some high quality noise cancelling headphones and stock up on absorbent undergarments.

#16 Camille on 11.18.19 at 5:59 pm

Staying invested in a balanced portfolio is good advice. But bond yields, although up some recently, are way down from a year or so ago. While stocks have not done so much since some time in early 2019. There is some respite from all the doom, and some can be permanently gloomy. But it played out a while ago.
And that 10 year yield didn’t top 2% and is pushing 1.8% now.

You don’t buy bonds for yield. – Garth

#17 Stone on 11.18.19 at 6:26 pm

#10 Mr Fundamental on 11.18.19 at 5:34 pm
I agree with this 100%:
“And here’s all you really need to know: Invest when you have the money and stay invested until you need it. All in between is but noise.”

Why do people make things so complicated?

———

Because they’re greedy (and stupid). Even Captain obvious knows that.

#18 earthboundmisfit on 11.18.19 at 6:40 pm

Was it you who said a while back “Stay balanced and diversified, and live quietly among the masses”? Took that advice, retired, now living it and loving it.

#19 earthboundmisfit on 11.18.19 at 6:49 pm

#13 Cramar …”Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres”.

Brother, I’d think twice, maybe even more, about buying waterfront property on the Great Lakes, given what’s predicted over the next couple of decades.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 6:51 pm

@#15 the Jag
I fully expect Hong Kong students to be “smacked down” in the next few days….with or without the People’s “Liberation” Army.
The rest of the world will bleat it’s dismay and do nothing.
Taiwan is another ball game all together.
Or some sort of “incident” in the South China Sea between the US and China.
Nukes….the great equalizer.

Who knows.
Maybe a world dominant China with millions of obnoxious tourists be almost as unpopular as “the ugly american” in 5 to 10 years…..

#21 Randy on 11.18.19 at 6:52 pm

Liberals-Greens and NDP (Climate Change/Global Warming/Sky is Falling) claim that the world will end in 11 years but you can still get a 25 year mortgage.

#22 Gregor Samsa on 11.18.19 at 6:55 pm

#14 cramar
#114 Guy in Calgary (yesterday)
>Show me a wooden shack for $500k in Calgary. I think you spelled GTA wrong.

You can have option A (https://tinyurl.com/qpyczu6): inner city wooden shack built in 1914, over 100 freaking years ago (so full of lead pipes, crummy wiring, and pests) for $475,000 or you can have option B (https://tinyurl.com/so8g83v): live in the middle of nowhere in a 2015 wooden particle board special that will start falling apart any day now for $489,000. Who in their right mind really thinks that either of these represent good value for the dollar?

They only reason those prices exist is that “happens” to be about the max amount of money banks will give people to buy a house. If banks gave $800K, they would be priced at $800K. There is no free market housing in Canada.

#23 Procrastinator on 11.18.19 at 6:56 pm

I’m finally getting around to moving assets from a cash account to my TFSA (will max it out) because, for unfortunate reasons, my personal tax rate will be really low this year.

Here is my question: My adviser wants to stuff the TFSA with what he calls “less tax efficient” parts of the portfolio like bond funds, basically stuff that doesn’t benefit from the current capital gains and dividend treatment, and leave the ETF’s and the few blue chips I have in the cash account. I think what he’s trying to do is avoid paying taxes on the bond interest. Does it make sense to do this? I know Garth has advised in the past to put growth assets in the TFSA but I can’t fit it all in. In theory it would double the after-tax return of the “safe stuff” in the portfolio, at least in normal years. He’s not advising GIC’s, but things more like PIMCO.

I also have RRSP’s but we aren’t looking at taking anything out of them because tax. They also contain a mix of bonds/ETF’s.

#24 Remembrancer on 11.18.19 at 7:14 pm

#15 the Jaguar on 11.18.19 at 5:58 pm

You know those are trained parade regiments right? Oh and check the tyres to see how much weight is actually being carried and by which vehicles – though it was always just as interesting to see who is standing next to whom…

The whole point is to make you feel small, don’t fall for it, its an old party trick and the only real advance is that its a lot easier to photoshop the VIP balcony shots now depending on who falls out of favour. Back in the day, those photo techs at Lubyanka had to have mad darkroom skills to doctor the negatives and prints…

#25 Sail away on 11.18.19 at 7:15 pm

#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm

Yesterday, the following listing that sold in Vancouver was posted to show what a half million buys there.

[garbage]

Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21078164/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-198-lakeshore-leamington

Wotz in your area?

—————————-

I’ll do you one better- near my bro’s house in South Dakota: 4 acres waterfront for $429K US. Beautiful area.

https://www.lakehousesofsouthdakota.com/property/13812-481st-Avenue-Big-Stone-City-South-Dakota-57216/7035365

#26 Sydneysider on 11.18.19 at 7:19 pm

#3 Freebird

Many quotations are attributed to Einstein to make them sound more profound. This is one of them I believe.

More credibly, the phrase “as simple as possible, but no simpler” (or variants thereof) seems to fit better with his scientific outlook.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05004-4

#27 not 1st on 11.18.19 at 7:19 pm

I was worried about this govt but honestly I don’t think it lasts.

Trudeau will try some whack climate thing, TMX never gets built, Singh tries to get his pharma care which Quebec wont agree to unless AB funds it which means the carbon tax has to go up because its for social spending anyway and not fake climate change as we all know and then AB goes ballistic right out of the CPP and the whole plan falls apart and so does the country.

Trudeau will be Gorbechev 2.0, PM without a country. Fitting epitaph for him.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/pension-plan-math-if-alberta-sneezes-ontario-will-need-the-kleenex

#28 Sail away on 11.18.19 at 7:21 pm

“You don’t buy bonds for yield. – Garth”

—————————–

Ok, sure: you buy them for capital preservation, inverse relation to equities markets and stability.

Similar for preferred shares.

That said, I’m very happy my preferred shares purchased some months back at multi-year lows have appreciated 5-6% in addition to 7-8% distributions.

#29 Bob Dog on 11.18.19 at 7:26 pm

Please tell us a story about collateralized loan obligations (CLO). Make it sound scary like its 2007.

Do young people realize they will be stuck with that $22 trillion debt once the boomers die off. Actually its $250 trillion worldwide. The next crash will make the GFC look like a walk in the park on a sunny day.

#30 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.18.19 at 7:30 pm

@Calgary Car Guy and KaleyCat last post:

Sounds great to me. I only have to convince the udder half. She’s a good woman, she’ll come along.

#31 Flop... on 11.18.19 at 7:37 pm

#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm

Yesterday, the following listing that sold in Vancouver was posted to show what a half million buys there.

https://idx.myrealpage.com/wps/-/facebook~1,preview~1,_wf~520/mylistings/414/listing.r2382156-13385-232-street-maple-ridge-v4r-2r6.89118163

Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21078164/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-198-lakeshore-leamington

Wotz in your area?

////////////////

Hey Cramer, that was me, long time, no chat, how have you been?

I still remember you telling me all about the Avro debacle.

That house you put up is really nice.

One small point.

The garden shed I put up yesterday was asking 499k but actually went for 450k.

What did they do with the difference?

I don’t know.

But it I’d have bought it, I would have spent the 50k on a safe room that I could crawl into when my wife got home, so she didn’t beat my backside with a broom because I spent 450k on a garden shed.

At least she wouldn’t have to go far to get the broom…

M45BC

#32 Kool Aid on 11.18.19 at 7:46 pm

Sovereign debt at 69T, got it.

How about adding in consumer and corporate debt, 250T seems reasonable.

How about adding in future liabilities, pensions and such, US alone has over 200T in obligations… negative US rates by 2021?

In this environment, better to invest in Pokémon cards if you truly require some appreciable paper, investors have lost the ability to rationalize relative risks in a negative rate landscape.

#33 Flop... on 11.18.19 at 7:49 pm

I’ve been slacking on the howmuch front, but they just did a good one.

Actually been busy at work hustling for my TFSA money for next year.

Trying to fund two accounts on 35k a year means I have to get creative sometimes.

Uncle Garth said if I pull it off, next time he’s in Vancouver he’ll give me a treat.

Probably something Bandit didn’t want to eat, but I’ll take it…

M45BC

Visualized: What Countries Hold the Most Money in Circulation?

How much money is in circulation around the world at any given time? And how would the money supply of each country compare against each other? Our latest map reveals the answers.

China has the most money in circulation ($25T), beating out the U.S. ($14T).

There are 327M Americans and 1.39B Chinese people.

That means the U.S. actually has more money in circulation compared to China on a per capita basis.

The European Union collectively has $8.1T in circulation, making it the fourth
largest in the world, behind Japan ($8.9T).

Countries in South America and Africa have very low supplies of money. Egypt has the most in circulation in all of Africa with only $197B.

Top 10 Countries With the Most Stock of Broad Money

1. China: $25T
2. U.S.: $14T
3. Japan: $8.9T
4. Germany: $3.3T
5. U.K.: $3.1T
6. South Korea: $2.2T
7. India: $2.1T
8. Hong Kong: $1.8T
9. Brazil: $1.8T
10. Italy: $1.7T

There are a few notable takeaways from our visualization. For starters, China has the most money in circulation ($25T), nearly double the amount of the U.S. ($14T). This is notable only for the fact that the U.S. has by far the largest economy in the world with a GDP of $20.5T compared to $13.6T in China, according to the World Bank. Of course, China is home to roughly 1.39B people, whereas the U.S. has a population of 327M, also per World Bank figures. That means there are more than 4 times as many Chinese people as there are Americans, but the country only has twice as much currency floating around.

Europe stands out because there are several nations with over $1T in circulation, including Germany ($3.3T), the U.K. ($3.1T) and Italy ($1.7T). In fact, the European Union boasts $8.1T in total stock of board money, making the EU the fourth largest in the world behind Japan ($8.9T). Of course, that figure includes the U.K., whose EU membership is still undetermined.

Note how Africa is almost entirely missing from our map. Egypt has the largest supply of money in Africa at only $197B. Brazil is the only country in South America topping $1T. We grouped any country with less than $100B in supply together in the “other” category in the top right, leaving lots of the Southern Hemisphere blank.

Regardless of how much money any individual country has in circulation, the U.S. dollar remains the reserve currency of choice around the world. This gives the U.S. a lot of advantages on the global stage. For example, the price of oil is priced in USD. The $14T in U.S. money supply therefore only represents one small part of how critically important the U.S. economy is to the rest of the world.

https://howmuch.net/articles/broad-money-world-2019

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 7:49 pm

Just when we thought politically Correct voters(Millennials?) electing “leaders” in Canada was scary…..now this

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-mcdonnell/no-one-needs-to-be-a-billionaire-britains-labour-party-says-idUSKBN1XS2LC

#35 YouKnowWho on 11.18.19 at 7:51 pm

Garth,

Be honest with us…that US debt will never be paid back. It’s impossible., right? Neither will the Canadian debt.

#36 Nonplused on 11.18.19 at 7:53 pm

“Invest when you have the money and stay invested until you need it. All in between is but noise.”

Well that pretty much sums it up, doesn’t it. A little re-balancing never hurts, but going to “cash” is actually risky from a return point of view. Why wouldn’t you just overweight bonds instead? Or preferreds? At least have a little interest coming your way. That is if you insist on making market predictions. Going to cash is a guaranteed -2% return due to inflation.

The hard part of the formula is of course “when you have the money”. I think Benjamin Franklin is credited with a quote that goes something like this: The first thing a young man needs to do is get some money. That is in fact the hard part. The next hard part is not to spend it all.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 8:15 pm

@#35 You know who
“that US debt will never be paid back. It’s impossible., right? Neither will the Canadian debt.”
+++++

let me guess….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBqoH-qx-os

You’re a Prime Minister?

#38 Politico on 11.18.19 at 8:17 pm

If I were the government of BC, I would be insisting Trans-Mountain 2 gets built. The original is nearly 60 years old. It will have to be decommissioned eventually. Say la vie say the old folks, but guess what? Then Vancouver goes in the dark. They can try and buy a bunch of EV’s in a hurry but then the grid goes down. They can try and buy more petroleum products from the US, but is there capacity? Nope. No Trans-Mountain, no gas at the PetroCan in Vancouver. Or anywhere else for that matter. And the old line needs to be shut down sooner rather than later.

The gas doesn’t just appear at the station by itself folks.

#39 Yukon Elvis on 11.18.19 at 8:28 pm

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 6:51 pm
@#15 the Jag
I fully expect Hong Kong students to be “smacked down” in the next few days….with or without the People’s “Liberation” Army.
The rest of the world will bleat it’s dismay and do nothing.
Taiwan is another ball game all together.
Or some sort of “incident” in the South China Sea between the US and China.
Nukes….the great equalizer.

Who knows.
Maybe a world dominant China with millions of obnoxious tourists be almost as unpopular as “the ugly american” in 5 to 10 years…..
……………………………..

China is not as tough as they think they are. They have internal problems. The Muslim Uighers are not happy. Falun Gong are not happy. Tibet is not happy. Hong Kong is miffed. Taiwan would go to war with China. China’s neighbours don’t like them. Nobody likes China’s south China Sea policy. Japan doesn’t like them. S. Korea doesn’t like them. Pakistan is not happy about the Muslim situation in China. Vietnam doesn’t like them. Philippines doesn’t like them. Malaysia doesn’t like them. And there are others. Chinese tourists in S.E Asia are tolerated cuz they have money but they are generally disliked by most. Russia fears them because Siberia belonged to China until about 150 years ago. China is surrounded by nuclear armed states like Russia, China, Pakistan, N.Korea, and the USA(Guam). China basically has no friends or allies. They are a-holes and there is lots of resentment out there towards them.

#40 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 8:37 pm

#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm
Yesterday, the following listing that sold in Vancouver was posted to show what a half million buys there.

https://idx.myrealpage.com/wps/-/facebook~1,preview~1,_wf~520/mylistings/414/listing.r2382156-13385-232-street-maple-ridge-v4r-2r6.89118163

Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21078164/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-198-lakeshore-leamington

Wotz in your area?
——-

Wow, I could not get that place for that price out this way, and we have TONS of waterfront. I guess near 650k for that in my area.

Too bad they don’t list the property taxes. I’ve seen nice places on the water here run 10k+/yr, which is why I’ll never own one. That’s one area where us rural knuckle draggers really get it up the posterior…

#41 Julie K. on 11.18.19 at 8:41 pm

What if there is no deal USAChina?
No Phase 1.
No Phase 2.
No deal.
What then?

#42 akashic record on 11.18.19 at 8:45 pm

The n-word was uttered today when The Fed was trumped, the “never in our lifetime” negative rate…

Looks like time is running out, end of life danger lurks in the air from all directions where the wind goes.

#43 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 8:47 pm

#21 Randy on 11.18.19 at 6:52 pm
Liberals-Greens and NDP (Climate Change/Global Warming/Sky is Falling) claim that the world will end in 11 years but you can still get a 25 year mortgage.
—————————————————————–
Yep. Those mortgages will surely be ‘underwater’ by then with the oceans rising.

#44 Shawn Allen on 11.18.19 at 8:56 pm

Don’t Pity the Young

29 Bob Dog on 11.18.19 at 7:26 pm
Please tell us a story about collateralized loan obligations (CLO). Make it sound scary like its 2007.

Do young people realize they will be stuck with that $22 trillion debt once the boomers die off. Actually its $250 trillion worldwide. The next crash will make the GFC look like a walk in the park on a sunny day.

*************************************
As a generation they also inherit all the world’s assets which FAR exceed the debt.

Debt is between people. Some of the young will be the 1% or the 10% to whom the debt is owed.

Also sovereign debt does not need to be paid off ever. Countries Just pay the interest. When principal comes due they borrow new to roll that over.

The young also have the greatest asset – their youth.

Does NOT suck to be them.

#45 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:04 pm

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 7:49 pm
Just when we thought politically Correct voters(Millennials?) electing “leaders” in Canada was scary…..now this

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-mcdonnell/no-one-needs-to-be-a-billionaire-britains-labour-party-says-idUSKBN1XS2LC
——-

151 billionaires in Britain, I wonder how much taxes they pay combined? I bet it’s a pile. Wonder how they would get by without it?

Maybe they should asked France how it turned out when they went after their rich folks…

#46 Flop... on 11.18.19 at 9:48 pm

NoName, did you get to see 60 minutes last night?

I have short attention span so I just watched these 13 minutes on undersea mining…

M45BC

“Picture a lump of rock about the size of a potato. Now pack it with some of the most valuable metals on earth, like nickel, cobalt, and other minerals known as rare earth elements. There are trillions of these nodules, that’s what they’re called, just waiting to be picked up. The problem is they’re on the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. The nodules were discovered more than a century ago. Now new technology has triggered a fierce competition to go get them. These metals are critical for modern life: cell phones, electric cars, and supercomputers. Nineteen countries, including China and Russia, have already jumped into the deep. But the one country on the sidelines? The United States. More on that in a moment, but first, we wanted to take a look at this new frontier.”

Bill Whitaker: So what makes them so valuable? What’s is in that?

Gerard Barron: Well, that is a electric vehicle battery in a rock.

Bill Whitaker: It looks like a lump of charcoal. (LAUGH)

Gerard Barron: It does. But it’s a beautiful lump of– lump of nodule. The amazing thing is it’s filled with nickel and cobalt and copper and manganese. And that’s everything we need to build a battery.

To get the nodules, the crew hoists a three-ton rig called a box core over the side. Plunging into the ocean, it begins its three-mile descent to the sea floor. Hours later, it neared the bottom. It felt like watching a new lunar landing.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rare-earth-elements-u-s-on-sidelines-in-race-for-metals-sitting-on-ocean-floor-60-minutes-60-minutes-2019-11-17/

#47 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:50 pm

#115 MF on 11.18.19 at 2:31 pm
#91 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 10:50 am

I’ll say it again. EVERYTHING you posted has been debunked on here many times.

Stop posting this drivel. You are a better poster than that.

We get it. You don’t like the GTA and prefer the north. Give it up with the propaganda already though.

MF

I’m afraid none of my postings on Toronto are propaganda, nor have they been “debunked”:

https://torontolife.com/city/torontos-population-will-change-next-50-years/

#48 Long-Time Lurker on 11.18.19 at 10:01 pm

>Someone asked this question about BRICS & USD a few days ago.

China is building up its ‘shadow reserves’ to counter its reliance on the US dollar
PUBLISHED SUN, NOV 17 20197:21 PM EST

KEY POINTS
Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. has “increased the risk of a financial decoupling” between the two largest economies.

Beijing will therefore manage its risk by diversifying its foreign exchange reserves into other currencies, ANZ predicted, as well as build up its “shadow reserves.”

Beijing is gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, which it is heavily invested in, and it has been going on a gold buying spree….

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/18/china-diversifying-fx-reserves-assets-to-counter-us-dollar-exposure.html

#49 Long-Time Lurker on 11.18.19 at 10:03 pm

>”Welcome to the Hotel California.” I’m glad I never checked in. (On moral grounds.)

Hedge Fund: It Is Astonishing That MSCI And Bloomberg/Barclays Index Force Global Pensioners To Fund China’s Communist Party

by Tyler Durden
Sun, 11/17/2019 – 18:20

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“They can no longer get their money out,” said the investor, a builder of global institutional portfolios.

“Allocators who made private equity investments in mainland China over the past 5-10yrs are now trapped,” he continued. “Not metaphorically trapped – they’re literally not permitted to move cash proceeds out of China as those investments are sold. The problem is widespread and the sums so large that we now have internal people focused on helping these allocators hedge the exchange rate risk.”

A worse fate than having your capital simply imprisoned in a foreign country, is having it locked-up and then devalued while you plot an escape.

“As investments mature and private equity managers distribute renminbi, they now ask clients who cannot get that money out of China to re-invest in their latest funds.” But even as the globe’s most sophisticated institutional investors find their capital quietly held hostage by Beijing, passive retail retirement savings is flowing into Chinese stocks and bonds at an accelerating pace.

In March 2019, MSCI quadrupled the share of Chinese onshore equities in their indexes. The increase is estimated to force between $80bln-$125bln of overseas savings into Chinese onshore stocks. MSCI left room to go further – to get to their full weighting, another $160bln-$250bln of passive equity flows will move to Beijing. And the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate index introduced a 6% weighting to China’s $13trln domestic bond market for the first time this March. An estimated $125bln-$150bln of inflows followed.

If other bond index providers follow Bloomberg/Barclays, an additional $125bln-$150bln will race in.

After decades of ever rising global capital flows, it is easy to forget that capital enters and exits nations only with the express permission of those in power.

“In the midst of rising East/West conflict and knowing that institutional investors are struggling to get their money out, it is astonishing that MSCI and Bloomberg/Barclays index boards have forced global pensioners to fund the Party.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-it-astonishing-msci-and-bloombergbarclays-index-force-global-pensioners-fund

#50 Long-Time Lurker on 11.18.19 at 10:03 pm

>That’s live millennials! Live!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRiSMXFpWIg

The Eagles – Hotel California Live At the Capital Center 1977
3,903,169 views•Feb 15, 2016

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 10:08 pm

@#41 Julie K.
“What then?”
+++++

China’s biggest asset and it’s biggest liability is it’s population.

If the people are happy, busy and working…boom time.
They can grind out a million widgets cheaper than the rest of the world combined….but if the world doesnt buy their widgets……uh oh.
If they are angry, bitter and unemployed…look out.
China has learned ( from the US) how to ramp up the nation behind nationalistic propaganda.
China’s economy is slowing.
They need minimum 6% GDP growth to sustain the population increase of workers entering the job market.
Let’s see how happy the population is when the economy grinds down to zero growth.
1.3 billion pissed off people can go in directions no one….even their own leaders…..can calculate…

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 10:14 pm

@#49 IHCTD9
“Maybe they should asked France how it turned out when they went after their rich folks…”
++++

Are we talking 1798 and the pitch forks and torches mob?
Heads on pikes and feed the bodies to the pigs kinda scenario?
Or are we talking modern times where the rich just moved to a friendlier tax haven?

Somehow I cant see the effete, socially aware, politically correct types in England getting their shoes covered in pig manure…..unless of course….its “Wince” Andrew in the Tower of London awaiting justice…..

#53 Kaleycat on 11.18.19 at 10:15 pm

#30 Bytor the Snow Dog
It didn’t happen all at once. First we sold the house (with full intent to buy another). But, well “Honey, let’s spend a winter in the Island First”. Then it was “well Honey, let’s buy a cute little motorhome and go fishing”. Then “well Honey, here’s a rental that worth millions and they’ll give it to us for $2k/month over the winter”. Then “well if we trade in our credit card points we can fly around the world this winter for free”. 4 years later we’re still at it – and no one had a more reluctant spouse then I did!

#54 CJohnC on 11.18.19 at 10:15 pm

#40 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 8:37 pm

Digging on the Leamington property website, the mortgage calculator lists monthly taxes @$417. That means about 5000 annual taxes if the number plugged in by the realtor is accurate.

#55 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 10:23 pm

#45 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:04 pmMaybe they should asked France how it turned out when they went after their rich folks…
—————————————————————
Nope. Didn’t go well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-14/france-s-wealth-tax-should-be-a-warning-for-warren-and-sanders

#56 Timmy on 11.18.19 at 10:24 pm

Rosenburb is a perma bear…Who would listen to him? Isn’t he the same economist that kept waring that housing was overvalued and then bought a house himself? Yes, it is a dismal science.

Biggest flaw in economics: assume people are rational.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 10:26 pm

@#39 Yukon Elvis
“China is not as tough as they think they are….”
++++
i hear ya….but ….
In the long run.
The have Nukes.
Which means no one else will use nukes.
Kinda why no one has stepped on that murderous slug from North Korea
So we’re back to armies, navies, air forces.
China can lose millions of troops, 10’s of millions of troops before they blink an eye.
But forget that.
Lets look at cyber wars,
Been called by a “Revenue Canada” spam lately?
Our own phone companies are either too lazy or too stupid to stoop it.
Thats just some hack from India.
Imagine if things get real nasty and China goes “rogue” and tries to hack everything….
Sure, we’ll hack back but the fall out…..?
Playing solitaire the old fashion way with a deck of cards…by candle light?
Awesome.
Reminds me of my youth.
Might actually get people to start talking to each other instead of staring at their phones.

#58 DON on 11.18.19 at 10:27 pm

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/rising-insolvency-readings-raise-red-flags-in-canada-sort-of?video_autoplay=true

“Surge in number of Canadians who can’t pay their debts has economists worried — and scratching their heads.

Insolvencies are accelerating at a pace that’s been associated with periods of distress, yet the economic backdrop has been positive”

Jaw dropping omission or no concept of the reality hitting main street? So much for the experts (u know what i mean) – Oil and forestry workers feeling LOTS of pain, but companies still making profits, so everything looks rosy. No boots on the ground. And while we are at it, not many experts saw the 2009 financial crisis coming and the ones that did were ridiculed to some extent.

Time to pack up folks…Idiocracy is slowly blanketing this planet. It’s not even funny anymore.

#59 Longterm on 11.18.19 at 10:27 pm

#45 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:04 pm

As a group UK billionaires don’t pay much tax. When I lived in the UK for a decade during the 2000s, Roman Abramovich was famous for paying less tax than his house cleaner.

Why you ask? It’s the UK special category of Non-Doms. You [well about 113,000+ people] can basically treat London as a party place or the countryside as a private hunting ground and live there while running all of your businesses and holding your billions via tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or even the local Channel Islands. It’s all perfectly legal, even at times positive encouraged by governments of several stripes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_with_non-domiciled_status_in_the_UK

#60 DON on 11.18.19 at 10:38 pm

#11 I’m stupid on 11.18.19 at 5:36 pm

Hang in there. All the best!

#61 DON on 11.18.19 at 10:45 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/6185498/alberta-government-firing-election-commissioner-bill-22/

“Alberta government firing election commissioner who was investigating leadership

Alberta’s United Conservative government is firing the province’s election commissioner, but says it’s not because he is investigating the party and has fined it more than $200,000.

Finance Minister Travis Toews says the decision to end Lorne Gibson’s contract is strictly about saving money.”

So basically, Kenney is above the law.

#62 Dr V on 11.18.19 at 11:03 pm

27 not 1st – read that article earlier today. The figures saying 16% of CPP contributions come from “Alberta workers” and only 10% of benefits go to “Alberta retirees” is a red herring. Break it down to the individual. If you make the same contributions over your career it doesn’t matter where you live.

#63 PHMIKE on 11.18.19 at 11:16 pm

A couple things… i followed the advice of GT sold my Langley BC condo in July for a nice gain wish i would have listened sooner it could have been even sweeter… currently same listings are 10% lower and on staying on the market.. also wasn’t a chinese dude but a middle aged white lady whose parents passed the cash… Thanks Big Guy
However when it comes to a recession im not scared and looking to cash out but doesn’t the fact that CN rail laying off 1600 or so employees, the longshoring jobs screeching to a halt and no energy sector mean at least here in Canada we may be pumping the brakes ?

#64 dakkie on 11.18.19 at 11:22 pm

What could go wrong? Most countries in “slowdown” phase, net exports of services now falling the most since the GFC & tech bust…. The market fully priced in a global economic recovery
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/what-could-go-wrong-most-countries-in-slowdown-phase-net-exports-of-services-now-falling-the-most-since-the-gfc-tech-bust-the-market-fully-priced-in-a-global-economic-recover/

#65 mj on 11.18.19 at 11:33 pm

things can go either way. December tariffs are on hold. If not phase one deal signed by the end of the year, I bet trump adds more tariffs. Then the feds have no choice but to start cutting rates again, and this time Canada will follow. I do think trump wants a deal, but it may happen later than sooner.

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.18.19 at 11:46 pm

#20
Who knows.
Maybe a world dominant China with millions of obnoxious tourists be almost as unpopular as “the ugly american” in 5 to 10 years….
——————
Obviously you have not been to Hallstatt, Austria.

#67 cramar on 11.18.19 at 11:50 pm

#31 Flop… on 11.18.19 at 7:37 pm
#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm

////////////////

Hey Cramer, that was me, long time, no chat, how have you been?

——————————-

Excellent…and getting better, thank you! Life is good! Wife has been bugging me for years to take her to BC (Vancouver). We’ll see how it goes in 2020.

#68 crazyfox on 11.19.19 at 1:08 am

The Schiller index is worth a mention:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

I see the markets continuing to inflate until the 15th of December when new tariffs are applied to China triggering a healthy selloff from there followed by another recovery. Why? Trump is manipulating the Fed rate through this trade war to artificially juice the economy into another term. So far, its worked and time will tell.

#69 Nonplused on 11.19.19 at 1:21 am

#44 Shawn Allen

I agree with some of your comments. The young should not be lamenting their plight. Greta should go back to school, not be sailing around on catamarans that have a much larger carbon footprint than a flight home would.

The world has its problems. Debt, insect die off, plastic in the oceans, over fishing, soil erosion, maybe global warming but I still haven’t taken a side on that one, deforestation, overpopulation, peak oil, nuclear waste, and that’s just a partial list.

But in the end of the day today is the best day to be alive there ever was and things just keep getting better! Things were not better 100 years ago. Back then people couldn’t even book a flight to Hawaii online, let alone be vaccinated against polio. They didn’t even have television! Although that might have been better.

I used to worry about the national debt a lot until I realized that money isn’t real. Its value is a creation of scarcity, as even Ben Bernanke admitted. So if the government or more specifically the central banks ever print to much of it, all that will happen is we start over with a new currency. It’s happened many times in history before. The buildings, roads, farms, rivers and trees will all still be there. All that will happen is a lot of people will come to realize that they aren’t going to get paid back. And it won’t be the millennials that get stuck holding the bag, they don’t hold much of the debt.

Don’t get me wrong, a currency collapse is a terrible event. But it only lasts a few years. It’s the modern day equivalent of a Jubilee. Lenders should always keep in mind that if the terms of the loan are onerous then it won’t be paid back in full. It is your responsibility to lend responsibly if you want your money back. As such, the millennials are not on the hook for this. Very few of them lent any money to anybody. Except maybe their friend at a bar. They won’t see that back for sure.

#70 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 6:11 am

#11 I’m stupid on 11.18.19 at 5:36 pm
“[…] I haven’t worked in 3 weeks. I’ve cut my discretionary spending to zero. I wonder how many others are in the same situation. 2009 wasn’t even this bad.[…] I don’t know when I’ll get another paycheque so Christmas will be toned down.[…]” Whether you’re searching for a job or changing careers, I’d recommend reading Dick Bolles’s What Color is Your Parachute? 2020. The book has been a bestseller for decades, but get the latest version. The chances of getting a job using the author’s job-search methods are about 86%.

#71 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 11.19.19 at 7:39 am

Is Alberta our own 3rd world country?

This kind of crap defies and defiles our democracy. There is a legitimate investigation underway into how the UCP manipulated the last leadership process. It is appears to have been an obvious and illegal activity.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/3pm-ish-embargo-government-bill-to-fire-alberta-elections-commissioner-roll-office-into-chief-electoral-officer

Kenney – RESIGN, and take the UCP with you, you crooks.

Welcome to Venezuela, Albertans.

You will get no sympathy from the rest of Canada if you tolerate this kind of behavior.

#72 -YAK- on 11.19.19 at 7:59 am

@#47 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:50 pm
________________________________

nah, most of your posts are anecdotal at best.

#73 NoName on 11.19.19 at 8:11 am

#68 crazyfox on 11.19.19 at 1:08 am
The Schiller index is worth a mention:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

I see the markets continuing to inflate until the 15th of December when new tariffs are applied to China triggering a healthy selloff from there followed by another recovery. Why? Trump is manipulating the Fed rate through this trade war to artificially juice the economy into another term. So far, its worked and time will tell.

Trupm is not manipulating fed, if not for fed and CB low interest rates working stiff would be bankrupt 10x between GFC and now.

Unfortunate part of low interest rates is wrecking pension funds, making those forward liabilities even bigger.

I hate to say, mf will definitely give me $#!7 for it, best thing that happened to working poor are actions of CB.

Many people think that makes are over valued, me think same, but bug reise of
ETF over last little while almost ackted as a shares buyback. Most of ETF investments are long, so when fund is created it acts as catalyst for share prices, because shares of ETF are traded on secondary market anyways, so float is getting smaller with every new ETF.

So what I am saying Schiller index need updating. But don’t take my word for it, aks professional.

And on a side it’s Nov 19, international Day of Man, when we celebrate man even those that are mediocre like I am.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 8:21 am

@#66 Pontius Pilate
“obviously you have never been to Hallstatt…”

=====

Nah, been to similar spots ruined by tourists.
I’ll save my money.

https://www.insider.com/hallstatt-photos-town-ruined-by-tourists-what-its-like-austria-2019-10

#75 K Birkshire on 11.19.19 at 8:39 am

Of course stock markets are rising, they are jacked with $ looking for profits as interest rates have been screaming look elsewhere for a decade and counting.

We are fiscally so far out of touch that when it does all crash and burn, nobody escapes- so it is a bit of a game of privatize the gains, socialize the losses. kudos to those who play it well.

#76 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:41 am

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 10:14 pm
@#49 IHCTD9
“Maybe they should asked France how it turned out when they went after their rich folks…”
++++

Are we talking 1798 and the pitch forks and torches mob?
Heads on pikes and feed the bodies to the pigs kinda scenario?
Or are we talking modern times where the rich just moved to a friendlier tax haven?

Somehow I cant see the effete, socially aware, politically correct types in England getting their shoes covered in pig manure…..unless of course….its “Wince” Andrew in the Tower of London awaiting justice…..
——-

Not the folks who refused to “eat cake”, rather the modern exodus of rich folks that sent their tax planners back to the drawing board.

Equality probably did improve a bit after all the millionaires left though…

There’s another example of using government force to achieve an end, and getting the opposite of what was planned.

#77 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:45 am

#54 CJohnC on 11.18.19 at 10:15 pm
#40 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 8:37 pm

Digging on the Leamington property website, the mortgage calculator lists monthly taxes @$417. That means about 5000 annual taxes if the number plugged in by the realtor is accurate
——

I guess that’s not too bad all things considered. Lots of folks I know are paying near 4K for regular houses in regular locations.

#78 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 8:50 am

#55 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 10:23 pm
#45 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:04 pmMaybe they should asked France how it turned out when they went after their rich folks…
—————————————————————
Nope. Didn’t go well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-14/france-s-wealth-tax-should-be-a-warning-for-warren-and-sanders
———

It probably has never been so easy to uproot and exit a country in the history of peoplekind as it is now. Millions have done it, and it would be even easier for rich folks compared to regular schmucks.

You’d think these politicians would have some desire to not shoot themselves and their citizenry in the foot.

#79 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 9:00 am

#72 -YAK- on 11.19.19 at 7:59 am
@#47 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:50 pm
________________________________

nah, most of your posts are anecdotal at best
——

Indeed they are – except for those concerning Toronto…

Anyone can look up and read the studies and projections that say the exact same stuff I’ve been saying.

#80 Shawn Allen on 11.19.19 at 9:11 am

Canada Pension Math Errors

#62 Dr V on 11.18.19 at 11:03 pm said:

27 not 1st – read that article earlier today. The figures saying 16% of CPP contributions come from “Alberta workers” and only 10% of benefits go to “Alberta retirees” is a red herring. Break it down to the individual. If you make the same contributions over your career it doesn’t matter where you live.

*******************************
Agreed the Fraser institute study, seems to be a biased piece of garbage math.

It’s like saying every 25 year over pays CPP because they are not yet collecting. Total Garbage to calculate Alberta’s share of CPP like that. Compared to Ontario, Alberta workers pay more versus what retired Albertans collect simply because of lower average age in Alberta.

Sad that people can be fooled with such obvious math errors.

But people believe what they want to and the numbers can always be tortured until they confess to whatever answer is desired.

Well, these days it is enough to simply declare an obvious lie to be truth.

#81 Penny Henny on 11.19.19 at 9:19 am

#14 cramar on 11.18.19 at 5:48 pm
Yesterday, the following listing that sold in Vancouver was posted to show what a half million buys there.

Just wondered what was available for the same price in my area. This is not bad. Lakefront with 1.5 acres.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21078164/2-1-bedroom-single-family-house-198-lakeshore-leamington

Wotz in your area?

//////////////

Isn’t the algae in the western portions of Lake Erie a huge problem.

Here’s what 500k will get you in Welland

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21199061/4-bedroom-single-family-house-259-gadsby-ave-welland

#82 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 9:25 am

#73 NoName on 11.19.19 at 8:11 am

And on a side it’s Nov 19, international Day of Man, when we celebrate man even those that are mediocre like I am.
——-

Thanks for the reminder, I had totally forgot. I was curious what festivities are planned to celebrate International Men’s Day in Canada, so I surfed on over to the CBC to read the coverage.

It looks like they haven’t got the article typed up just yet…

#83 Shawn Allen on 11.19.19 at 9:41 am

People are still spending in restaurants…

Stats Canada reported about ten seconds ago that:

“Sales of the food services and drinking places subsector increase in the third quarter

The figures in this section are based on unadjusted (that is, not seasonally adjusted) estimates.

Unadjusted sales in the food services and drinking places subsector were up 2.5% in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the same quarter of 2018. Sales increased at full-service restaurants (+2.9%), limited service restaurants (+2.4%) and special food services (+2.8%); sales at drinking places fell by 2.6%. Sales increased in nine provinces, with the largest gains in dollar terms being in Ontario (+2.6%), Quebec (+2.8%), British Columbia (+1.9%) and Alberta (+2.4%). Sales declined slightly in Saskatchewan (-0.2%).

Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.7% in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the third quarter of 2018 and prices for alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments were up 1.3% in the same period. Similarly, prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.7% in September 2019 compared with September 2018, whereas prices for alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments were up 1.0%.”

**********
Not that they say the figures are not seasonally adjusted. Well there is no need to seasonally adjust when you compare year over year. It’s, like, the same season both years! duh.

#84 Dr V on 11.19.19 at 10:00 am

80 Shawn – I prefer to say “there are different ways to interpret the data” and age is certainly one of them.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 10:05 am

@#126 GRG
“So, yes, I live on a ranch <60 min drive to downtown. That bother you?"
++++

Not at all.
I lived in cowtown in the very early 80's …the depths of the recession…..during King Ralph's reign.
Best areas to go on the weekends were anywhere but Calgary …… Bragg Creek , Pigeon Mtn, Black Diamond. or north east to the Badlands to hunt snakes or shoot gophers.
The Calgary Zoo was always interesting but the rest of the city……pffft.
Do I miss Calgary?
Not for a nano second

#86 Jesse on 11.19.19 at 10:07 am

#71 CROOKED JASON KENNEY – LOCK HIM UP!! on 11.19.19 at 7:39 am
Is Alberta our own 3rd world country?

This kind of crap defies and defiles our democracy. There is a legitimate investigation underway into how the UCP manipulated the last leadership process. It is appears to have been an obvious and illegal activity.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/3pm-ish-embargo-government-bill-to-fire-alberta-elections-commissioner-roll-office-into-chief-electoral-officer

Kenney – RESIGN, and take the UCP with you, you crooks.

Welcome to Venezuela, Albertans.

You will get no sympathy from the rest of Canada if you tolerate this kind of behavior.
****************************

You’re joking right? Trudeau and his crony, Gerald Butts are the reason why the west is angry.

Oh yeah, after Butts took the fall for Trudeau and stepped down during the SNC scandal, Trudeau hired him back for the 2019 election campaign.

Trudeau has broken Canada, alienated the west, divided the country…and all you can do is whine about a premier?

We got bigger fish to fry.

#87 PastThePeak on 11.19.19 at 10:19 am

I am surprised it has taken the “powers that be” this long to figure out the secret to perpetual growth:
– Debt growth above GDP
– No cost to money (essentially 0% interest)
– Print ever more money

A first year economics student could have figured that this is expansionary – why didn’t the gov’t & CBs do this decades ago? Surely there is no downside…

#88 Don Guillermo on 11.19.19 at 10:20 am

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.19 at 10:05 am
@#126 GRG
“So, yes, I live on a ranch <60 min drive to downtown. That bother you?"
++++
Not at all.
I lived in cowtown in the very early 80's …the depths of the recession…..during King Ralph's reign.
Best areas to go on the weekends were anywhere but Calgary …… Bragg Creek , Pigeon Mtn, Black Diamond. or north east to the Badlands to hunt snakes or shoot gophers.
The Calgary Zoo was always interesting but the rest of the city……pffft.
Do I miss Calgary?
Not for a nano second

********************************************
OMG, early 80's … over 35 years ago. Too funny. Of course you have it all figured out.

#89 Blog Bunny on 11.19.19 at 10:46 am

Garth,

I have friends who were so freaked out by the 2009 crash that they waited 10 years before getting back in the market… Even my cute fluffy bunnies are smarter than that.

#90 Dharma Bum on 11.19.19 at 11:18 am

#47 IHCTD9

I’m afraid none of my postings on Toronto are propaganda, nor have they been “debunked”.
——————————————————————–

IHCTD9 is 100% correct.

Rest assured, Toronto is on a trajectory to become a complete hell hole.

Get out while you can.

#91 Yukon Elvis on 11.19.19 at 11:29 am

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 10:26 pm
So we’re back to armies, navies, air forces.
China can lose millions of troops, 10’s of millions of troops before they blink an eye.
…………………………………..

Not really. China’s one child policy created 10’s of millions of male babies so that they could support their parents in their old age. That is how it is done there. If that support were to disappear there would be mass poverty and hunger. People would go nuts and China would implode. But you are right about cyber and economic warfare. That is how it will be done.

#92 david prokop on 11.19.19 at 11:36 am

Janet Powell was summoned to Trump WH yesterday to talk negative rates. Why? I have a feeling that the trade deal with China has fallen apart and we’ll soon see angry tweets and tensions will escalate Trump needs to make sure Fed will cut rates when it happens

Actually reports say the meeting was cordial. There will never be negative rates in the US. – Garth

#93 T on 11.19.19 at 12:42 pm

#47 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 9:50 pm
#115 MF on 11.18.19 at 2:31 pm
#91 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 10:50 am

I’ll say it again. EVERYTHING you posted has been debunked on here many times.

Stop posting this drivel. You are a better poster than that.

We get it. You don’t like the GTA and prefer the north. Give it up with the propaganda already though.

MF

I’m afraid none of my postings on Toronto are propaganda, nor have they been “debunked”:

https://torontolife.com/city/torontos-population-will-change-next-50-years/

—-

Incredible, a 3 year old article about what Toronto might be is 50 years. Very insightful and relevant… /s

I’m not a fan of Toronto lately either, but do try better than cherry picking ridiculous articles as supporting evidence of your points of view.

MF wins this one, hands down.

#94 T on 11.19.19 at 12:46 pm

#92 david prokop on 11.19.19 at 11:36 am
Janet Powell was summoned to Trump WH yesterday to talk negative rates. Why? I have a feeling that the trade deal with China has fallen apart and we’ll soon see angry tweets and tensions will escalate Trump needs to make sure Fed will cut rates when it happens

—–

Here we go with ‘feelings’ again. Fortunately data does not support your ‘feelings’. You might want to look at actual data before letting your ‘feelings’ get in the way of true insight.

Can we all start debating points of view based on data? It makes for much more constructive conversation.

#95 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 12:53 pm

Re: 60 minutes and Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone

Hey Flop- DeepGreen reappears! Some comments:

1. The company formed in 2012 with Nautilus Minerals’ Heydon striking a deal with Glencore for purchase of product. They planned to go public on TSX but nothing came of it after permitting issues.
2. The location Maersk was taking their samples in the 60 minute episode is nowhere near the actual CCFZ which is located 600-1000 miles offshore US extending almost to Hawaii, and there’s no way they reach it in a day. Maybe this area had similar nodules? In any case, it seems misleading.
3. In the last few years since 2017, DeepGreen has been trying to gain public interest, now they’re jumping on the climate change, carbon neutral, sustainable, treasure ‘just laying around for the taking’ bandwagon
4. A prefeasibility study for mining the CCFZ was to be done by DeepGreen in 2018 but I didn’t find it. It might or might not exist.
5. I found an article mentioning that 500 kg of nodules have been collected so far. To put this into perspective, that amount can fit in a pickup bed.
6. It looks like Macquarie and Fearnley have provided $150M of private funding to DeepGreen.

It seems the company is trying to raise interest by talking about solutions to current hot-button issues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go public in the next year or so with the hype.

If it does IPO, I wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole. Lots of hype with little to no substance.

#96 Tony on 11.19.19 at 12:55 pm

DELETED

#97 Tony on 11.19.19 at 1:00 pm

Re: #92 david prokop on 11.19.19 at 11:36 am

Consensus seems to be 50/50 odds of phase 1 of the trade deal going through and zero percent for phase 2 and anything after phase 2. We’ll see if Trump sells out all of America to China late in the summer of 2020.

#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm

Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One. New time of use rates as follows:

Off peak: 6.5 cents/kwh went to 10.1 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Mid peak: 9.4 cents/kwh went to 14.4 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 53% increase.

On peak: 13.4 cents/kwh went to 20.8 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Common man takes another hit. Again.

2% inflation my arse.

#99 pa on 11.19.19 at 1:49 pm

@#98
How inflation is calculated=
[s]Electricity[/s]
[s]Gas[/s]
[s]Meat[/s]
[s]Potatoes[/s]
[s]Cheese[/s]
[s]Milk[/s]
[s]Fish[/s]
[s]Fruit[/s]
[s]Housing[/s]
[s]Rent/s]
Sour grape bubble gum==Bingo

#100 Sail away on 11.19.19 at 2:10 pm

Hey Tony, good to see you. I’ve been shorting the US markets for all of November based on your predictions- it’s not working out too well, but there are still 11 days left, I guess.

Just kidding- I don’t actually trust my $ to anyone’s prediction. If markets do crash before the end of November, though, I’ll bow down to your otherworldly prognostication.

Otherwise…??

#101 Phylis on 11.19.19 at 2:16 pm

#17 Mathew Gibson on 11.17.19 at 4:54 pm
Something that everyone needs becoming less expensive is always a good thing for society.

#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm
Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One. New time of use rates as follows:

Off peak: 6.5 cents/kwh went to 10.1 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Mid peak: 9.4 cents/kwh went to 14.4 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 53% increase.

On peak: 13.4 cents/kwh went to 20.8 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Common man takes another hit. Again.

2% inflation my arse
+++++++++++++

Still Agreed. Too bad electricity in Ontario cant hear us. And big sigh.

#102 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 2:44 pm

#93 T on 11.19.19 at 12:42 pm

Incredible, a 3 year old article about what Toronto might be is 50 years. Very insightful and relevant… /s

I’m not a fan of Toronto lately either, but do try better than cherry picking ridiculous articles as supporting evidence of your points of view.

MF wins this one, hands down.
——

Ah yes, having back up and a source is frustrating isn’t it? It’s ok bud, we’ve all had to rely on the old “attack the source” strategy at one time or another.

That article drew its info in consultation with the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.

Plus it all seems pretty straightforward and logical IMHO. Nothing radical there at all.

Let me guess, U of T and Rotman (where 98% of the faculty have Doctorates) don’t know their @ss from a hole in the ground either?

No offense to MF, but I’ll be sticking with the Professors on this one.

#103 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 2:54 pm

#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm
Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One. New time of use rates as follows:

Off peak: 6.5 cents/kwh went to 10.1 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Mid peak: 9.4 cents/kwh went to 14.4 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 53% increase.

On peak: 13.4 cents/kwh went to 20.8 cents/kwh as of Nov 1st = 55% increase.

Common man takes another hit. Again.

2% inflation my arse
——

Has to happen. Wynne’s Liberal hydro handout has to be unwound or there’d be billions worth of debt hidden away in her little Public Corp in no time.

She cut my bill in half with her “fair hydro” “plan”, so I expect it to double, plus interest, plus whatever costs accumulated in the meantime. Plus, plus, plus…

When everything is back to normal, my bill will likely be over 250.00 for 800 kwh. I read a while back that Ontario electricity rates at the bottom line all in could approach .40 kWh before 2030.

#104 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 3:13 pm

#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm
“Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One.[…] Common man takes another hit. Again. 2% inflation my arse.” Have you thought about solar panels and net metering? Crunch the numbers! :)

#105 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 3:31 pm

#104 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 3:13 pm
#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm
“Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One.[…] Common man takes another hit. Again. 2% inflation my arse.”

Have you thought about solar panels and net metering? Crunch the numbers! :)
—- –

I was just thinking about your solar panels. There’s no way I will tolerate .40-.50 kWh hydro. That’s a new Grizzly 700 every 3 years!

Only way that it will happen for me is if I can get net metering in my area.

What’s your minimum billing? Do you have to have insurance against accidentally back feeding the grid during a power outage?

#106 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 3:48 pm

Here’s what 500k will get you in Welland

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21199061/4-bedroom-single-family-house-259-gadsby-ave-welland
——

That’s not a bad deal either, put 50k down and it’s a 2100.00 monthly at 3.0 for 25. A couple each grossing 45k/yr could handle that no problemo.

Taxes a bit high though.

Even so, it looks like great deals can be had without going too far into the glacial till of rural Ontario.

#107 Exurban on 11.19.19 at 3:57 pm

#14 cramer

That house is not in Vancouver, it is in the Silver Valley neighborhood of Maple Ridge. It’s at least 30 miles east of the Van-Burnaby border and a minimum 90 minute commute to downtown in rush hour.

#108 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 5:54 pm

#104 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 3:13 pm sez:

“#98 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 1:20 pm
“Just got my hydro bill from Hydro One.[…] Common man takes another hit. Again. 2% inflation my arse.” Have you thought about solar panels and net metering? Crunch the numbers! :)”
————————————–
The cost of subsidizing solar panels and wind turbines is the reason our hydro rates got so screwed up in the first place.

#109 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 7:22 pm

#105 IHCTD9 on 11.19.19 at 3:31 pm
“I was just thinking about your solar panels. There’s no way I will tolerate .40-.50 kWh hydro. That’s a new Grizzly 700 every 3 years!” Do I at long last have a convert after all my incessant and irritating proselytizing? :)

“Only way that it will happen for me is if I can get net metering in my area.” Here’s a link showing how to “contact your electricity company to find out how to apply for a net metering agreement, and connect your renewable energy system to the grid.”
https://www.ontario.ca/page/save-your-energy-bill-net-metering

“What’s your minimum billing?” It’s $22.75, but I don’t live in Ontario. :)

“Do you have to have insurance against accidentally back feeding the grid during a power outage?” No, according to para. 3.9 of my net metering agreement, in the event of a power outage, my power company will “curtail, interrupt or reduce [my] facility’s electrical output, without prior notice, whenever [my power company] determines that it is necessary to do so.” Feel free to ask any other questions. :)

#110 Gravy Train on 11.19.19 at 7:39 pm

#108 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.19.19 at 5:54 pm
“The cost of subsidizing solar panels and wind turbines is the reason our hydro rates got so screwed up in the first place.” There’s net metering in my province, too, but my power rates are rising only about 2% per year. How do you account for that? :)