The moaning

During that godawful election campaign the cowboy premier argued the mortgage stress test is unfair to Calgary and Edmonton. “One of the reasons why homes are less affordable in Alberta today is because of unfair rules imposed by Ottawa to deal with the overheated real estate markets in Toronto and Vancouver,” thundered Jason Kenney.

The federal Cons agreed. Andrew Scheer promised to ‘modify’ the rules setting minimum mortgage hurdles. And so the Conservatives swept the West. Once again real estate got real political.

So what’s the situation? Are Alberta houses unaffordable? Would gutting the stress test for certain regions of the country make houses accessible? Is Trudeau likely to do this to help keep the prairie Liberation Army at bay?

Hmm. The latest numbers tell a different tale. New house prices in Calgary are falling – down about two and a half per cent over the past year. Resale prices have been on the decline for five years. Sales of detacheds year/year is negative. But that hasn’t halped sales much – they’re at a 23-year low.

House starts have fallen in Calgary. Off 16% from last year. In fact the real estate board says that’s okay since there are already too many houses. The market is oversupplied, and so the value of homes drops – and will continue to do so. Says one realtor in counseling vendors: “If you’re selling your house, you have to take a deep, deep breath and you have to lower your price to probably well below what you thought your house was worth. And even then, you’re in for a challenging time.”

Yes, prices for single-family homes in the Canadian energy capital have now declined for nine straight months. Valuations peaked in the autumn of 2014, and have held a decline of about 10%. Currently the average detached house goes for $459,000, which is 7% cheaper than last year. Of course that amount of money buys you a crappy one-bedroom apartment one hour’s commuting distance from downtown Toronto, or a single-car garage in Vancouver. Well, actually, a garden shed.

“We should all get comfortable in the market we’re in,” realtor Tanya Eklund told some local media. “We’ll likely be in a very similar situation into 2020 and possibly into 2021 unless we start to see some huge migration numbers of people who are employed.”

And Edmonton? Crickets. Prices are stuck at the lowest point in six years. The average is now $316,000, or thirty grand less than in Halifax – a city with 30% less population and sitting in an equally regional, economically-challenged zone. Overall houses cost 9% less than five years ago. Factor in inflation, and it’s closer to a 20% plop. The average detached, at $421,000, is $16,000 lower than way back in 2015.

Says the head of the real estate board: “Our market has been down over the last number of years and we haven’t seen a significant increase in the market, and we’re not anticipating a significant increase soon. The stress test is making it difficult for buyers to be financed, even though in theory we’re in a buyer’s market. Consumers are just saying, ‘I’m happy to go out for dinner, I’m not happy to spend half a million dollars on a new house.'”

Well, there you go. After jumping into bubble territory a decade ago, the Alberta real estate market corrected, and has since stabilized. Here’s the chart for Calgary.

Stable prices: how is this a bad thing?

Now, let’s ask: why is this a problem? The market is drifting sideways. Modest inflation is eroding prices. Affordability has been enhanced over the past half-decade, not decreased (as in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver). The stress test is still in place to ensure buyers aren’t squished in the future when interest rates rise (and they will) – in other words, to keep people from becoming over-extended. The real news is the average detached in Calgary or Edmonton costs $1 million less than a similar hovel in Van.

So modestly, gently declining real estate values in Alberta are good. Not bad. We should all be so lucky.

The problem is our cult society in which ‘good’ real estate markets means constantly rising prices and sales. Anything other is called – by the media, politicians and (especially) realtors and lenders – ‘poor, ‘declining’ or ‘struggling’. We’ve fallen for this ruse. We’ve come to equate general economic health with rising property values, even when that robs, debilitates, impoverishes and indebts families.

In reality, the ability to buy a fine house for less than half a million should be a big positive feature of life in Calgary or Edmonton. These places are not outposts. Calgary has 1.4 million people, the fourth-largest metro region in the country. An equal number live in Edmonton. Real estate that people can actually buy is an advantage. Not a disease.

Gutting the stress test so the Albertan housing market can inflate, become over-extended and create more risk for the people living there is just as dumbass as thinking the province can exit Canada. But, it comes from the same people. Figures.

126 comments ↓

#1 Nobody on 11.17.19 at 3:51 pm

Eh? A stress test designed to limit how much people can borrow is lowering prices and so making homes unaffordable?

I really must stop doing engineering and go into politics

#2 Flop... on 11.17.19 at 3:55 pm

Bit of garden shed talk on here.

Reminded me of this garden shed in Maple Ridge that recently sold for 450k.

We are told to shovel all our net worth into real estate.

Before late 2016 there were lots of shiny tools in the Vancouver real estate shed.

Mr Market pulled out his trusty old Correction Broom that he had been lying dormant for around 15 years.

Since then a lot of people have been raked…

https://idx.myrealpage.com/wps/-/facebook~1,preview~1,_wf~520/mylistings/414/listing.r2382156-13385-232-street-maple-ridge-v4r-2r6.89118163

#3 Still employed in AB on 11.17.19 at 4:00 pm

Parts of Alberta are imploding and I would be worried if I owned a condo in Calgary or Edmonton. There are still people leaving the province and many of them are becoming reluctant landlords unable to get their price.

Ft Mac is on Fire Again https://www.facebook.com/638246188/posts/10158222060066189?sfns=mo

The top end of the market is taking a beating if you take a look at the « high rollers » aka The biggest losers on the monthly Edmonton stats. https://member.ereb.com/WEB/Documents/pdf/October-CMA-All_.pdf

Meanwhile we are still building condo’s, rent is affordable, and some places offering 2 months free rent on a one year lease.

#4 JSS on 11.17.19 at 4:06 pm

Calgary and Edmonton are fourth and fifth largest metro populations in Canada:

Toronto, Ontario 6,341,940
Montréal, Quebec 4,255,540
Vancouver, British Columbia 2,650,010
Calgary, Alberta 1,486,050
Edmonton, Alberta 1,420,920
Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario/Quebec 1,414,400

2018 stats.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/443749/canada-population-by-metropolitan-area/

#5 Andrewski on 11.17.19 at 4:09 pm

A friend of ours is a RE agent in Calgary and he has had to hustle hard to make deals happen.

#6 Joe Schmoe on 11.17.19 at 4:16 pm

As a guy raised in Ft Mac, can currently residing in Cowtown I can assure you two things:

1) Wexit is a dumb idea. But it is being used to get some much needed attention. Like a kid holding their breath to get what they want. That’s how silly politics is.

2) Calgary is still one of the best places to live in Canada. We have been checking other places out the past year. Income+taxes+cost of living+crowding+amenities= not many places even close in the rest of Canada….for now. Easy come, easy go.

#7 Shawn Allen on 11.17.19 at 4:24 pm

Not all is bad (or good depending on your view point) in Edmonton housing market

From Edmonton journal: The city’s rental vacancy rate declined from 7 per cent to 5.3 per cent from 2017 to 2018. In 2019, that number is expected to drop to 3.9 per cent. That trend is projected to continue with a 3.4 per cent vacancy rate in 2020 before increasing to 4.3 per cent in 2021.

That looks pretty healthy.

Is Garth’s overall message a suggestion for people to move to Edmonton? Looks like Edmonton is doing a lot better than Calgary.

#8 Dave on 11.17.19 at 4:28 pm

I feel for the folks in Calgary who have lost value in their homes, but other than family, many live there for work–not for the winters or the vibrancy of the city, so if there is no work then…

#9 DON on 11.17.19 at 4:29 pm

On another note, Why have the BRIC countries and other countries been buying gold the last couple of years.

To lesson their dependency on the Western Financial system but what else? How does this impact the West? Any thoughts/explanations?

#10 Tim on 11.17.19 at 4:33 pm

Don’t worry, Jason Kenny is coming to the rescue! Despite being under RCMP investigation for the fraud he committed during the election running a Kamikaze candidate he’s giving his corporate buddies tax breaks, while shafting the middle class. Yes folks, cutting funding for special needs children, cutting school budgets while Husky Oil makes a profit becuase of paying less taxes and then proceeds to lay off hundreds of people. Rest assured, his highly cooperative and collaborative nature with the Federal government will pay dividends in helping this province. We want a better deal with the Feds…is that why we didn’t elect any Liberals?

#11 Paddy on 11.17.19 at 4:36 pm

Please correct me if i’m wrong(cause we all are sometimes) but it sounds like the stress test is stopping people from buying houses that they can’t afford, which is a good thing…..Mr. Kenney wtf have you got yourself into…

#12 Grunt on 11.17.19 at 4:36 pm

Get rid of the border and these issues largely disappear. It used to be worth keeping. But in recent years there’s been just as much violent crime in Canada as in the US. Nowadays we might just as well go hand-in-hand and benefit from lower taxation and improved business competition. It’d only be the death of corporate Canada. That’s all the border is.

#13 Tim on 11.17.19 at 4:38 pm

Saudi Aramco Sets Its Market Value at Up to $1.7 Trillion

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/business/aramco-ipo.html?searchResultPosition=2

Why are the Saudis so anxious to offer up shares in the oil company to the public? They say they want to diversify the economy, but is it more the case that they want to get it out of the ground while they can still get a good price for it, given many forecasts call for oil use to decline within 10 years?

#14 yvr_lurker on 11.17.19 at 4:45 pm

Indeed Calgary and Edmonton are markets where, if you have a stable job, local people can have a good lifestyle. Unlike YVR and Toronto, rather few immigrants driving up demand for housing and rentals. The trouble of course is with jobs, but if you have a secure one you have it made. Have always loved the area near Turner valley and hiking in Kananaskis, where the national parks are not inundated (as in Banff) with armies of tour buses filled with hordes of tourists every summer. Perfect for reclusive and insular people who like the solitude….

#15 John on 11.17.19 at 4:46 pm

“Gutting the stress test so the Albertan housing market can inflate, become over-extended and create more risk for the people living there is just as dumbass as thinking the province can exit Canada. But, it comes from the same people. Figures.”

This probably comes from the same dimwit that wants to manage Albertan’s pensions….something else they can loot on a rainy day.

Calgary has always been a boom and bust town. People don’t go there to retire or for the weather. If you buy a condo during the boom then you have to expect that it won’t go up forever.

#16 Re-Cowtown on 11.17.19 at 4:53 pm

You think a double hull has been tested against a rocky reef in an unpredictable stormy surf. When you were living in Victoria/Point Grey you saw only relatively calm waters, travel up island a bit. A couple years ago we had an oil tanker dead in the water off Haida Gwaii. Ice ripped through the Titanic didn’t it?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not even remotely related to what I was talking about. I see that you didn’t find any instances of double hull tankers rupturing either, so you had to invent something that didn’t happen. The Titanic? Really?
Really? That’s just silly….

The Haida Gwaii spill wasn’t an oil tanker. It was a tugboat. The fuel spilled from it’s fuel tank. Fuel tank spills can happen from cruise ships, ferries, fishing boats and climate activist vessels. Just ask Greenpeace and the recent Sydney harbour incident that they tried to avoid responsibility for.

Again, none of your arguments have nothing to do with modern double hull tankers, so thanks for supporting my argument by going off topic becuase you couldn’t find anything to refute it.

#17 Mathew Gibson on 11.17.19 at 4:54 pm

Something that everyone needs becoming less expensive is always a good thing for society.

#18 NoName on 11.17.19 at 5:21 pm

#13 Tim on 11.17.19 at 4:38 pm
Saudi Aramco Sets Its Market Value at Up to $1.7 Trillion

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/business/aramco-ipo.html?searchResultPosition=2

Why are the Saudis so anxious to offer up shares in the oil company to the public? They say they want to diversify the economy, but is it more the case that they want to get it out of the ground while they can still get a good price for it, given many forecasts call for oil use to decline within 10 years?

An article states that 1.7B is for 1.5% of the company, they are not going out of oil businesses any time soon.

#19 Gen Zuumer on 11.17.19 at 5:24 pm

Ok Buumer

#20 FreeBird on 11.17.19 at 5:29 pm

Unless I missed something:

Alberta has affordable real estate in big cities but elected Premier says that’s bad and wants higher prices.

Vancouver and main areas are still high but elected Premier says that’s bad and wants lower prices.

Toronto prices are generally high and it’s accepted by most but some want more affordable prices or easier to take on debt.

So do those wanting lower prices to buy also want higher prices after to make money? Hard to have both.

#21 Remembrancer on 11.17.19 at 5:36 pm

#1 Nobody on 11.17.19 at 3:51 pm
Eh? A stress test designed to limit how much people can borrow is lowering prices and so making homes unaffordable?

I really must stop doing engineering and go into politics
—————————————
Maybe you missed out on complex systems engineering and risk analysis?

#22 Phylis on 11.17.19 at 5:40 pm

#17 Mathew Gibson on 11.17.19 at 4:54 pm
Something that everyone needs becoming less expensive is always a good thing for society.

Agreed. Too bad electricity in Ontario cant hear you.

#23 JSS on 11.17.19 at 5:41 pm

From what I hear and read, the Alberta public sector employees will be dealt with by Kenney and crew.
Expect further job cuts, wage rollbacks, transfer of pension from DB to DC.
Considering that the public sector is the biggest employer in Alberta (yes, bigger than oil and gas), and the beating they will take, I’d suggest that house prices in Calgary and Edmonton will take a further hit. Especially Edmonton.

#24 conan on 11.17.19 at 5:55 pm

#13 Tim on 11.17.19 at 4:38 pm
Saudi Aramco Sets Its Market Value at Up to $1.7 Trillion

Aramco is going to flood the market with oil. No one can produce quality grade oil cheaper than Saudi Arabia.

Alberta’s only chance is to to get their oil to tidewater in the west. They have a good shot at becoming number one supplier to Japan and other countries who do not want to be so dependent on Iran’s product.

We have 50 years to pay back all of the investors in Alberta energy, then the market will be deader than a door nail.

#25 Tony on 11.17.19 at 5:57 pm

Small point. Calgary is where people talk about doing energy stuff. Edmonton is where people actually do energy stuff.

#26 Popeye The Sailor Man on 11.17.19 at 6:06 pm

Live in the Edmonton Area, work month on month off at sea. I fly to Work so I can practically live anywhere near an airport.

To move to South Vancouver Island would add about $350-450K in Mortgage Debt, and Go from 85% equity to less then then 50% equity.
I Have owned this house for 10 years Value has not moved much, and I’m Ok with that.

#27 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.17.19 at 6:11 pm

Re #14 by yvr_lurker
Indeed Calgary and Edmonton are markets where, if you have a stable job, local people can have a good lifestyle. Unlike YVR and Toronto, rather few immigrants driving up demand for housing and rentals. The trouble of course is with jobs, but if you have a secure one you have it made. Have always loved the area near Turner valley and hiking in Kananaskis, where the national parks are not inundated (as in Banff) with armies of tour buses filled with hordes of tourists every summer. Perfect for reclusive and insular people who like the solitude….
——————————————————————
BINGO! You have just described where and how I live! For six years now I have lived by myself in an older 40ft diesel pusher motorhome on a 112 acre wilderness property near Bragg Creek west of Calgary. I have a pretty secure job at a car dealership in Calgary and do a forty minute commute with a beautiful scenic drive on a very well-maintained highway. The only hook-up I have is power…I haul water. Tanks are dumped with a macerator pump into the toilet of a derelict mobile home on the property to access the old septic field. I bought this beautiful motorhome on ebay for 48900 CANADIAN dollars in 2013. It was 392000 US dollars when new in ’97. Considering my rent on this 1.5 million dollar property is only 600.00 per month the motorhome has more than paid for itself. It is definitely work to live here like I am but it is worth it. The wildlife is incredible. My point is that you can live quite well and pretty cheaply if you research, plan and are determined. I will be 62 in less than a month. Cut your cost of living people. I am living my dream.

#28 Soccer Mom on 11.17.19 at 6:13 pm

#3 Still employed in AB

I was in Fort Mac this summer for the Alberta soccer provincials championships. The stories are true. While most of what burned has been fixed, stores are shuttered everywhere. You can’t even get food after 9 pm on a Saturday. No problem finding hotel rooms, even with a big event like this in town. This is what happens to a town when the major industry gets up and leaves.

Sure, the buses are still running up from Edmonton every day to carry the camp workers back and forth, but those folks are mostly just working the existing mines. What made Fort Mac a boom town was all the expansions that were going on. Those are all on hold for the foreseeable future. Even if oil prices rise from here, there is no point expanding while the province remains bottle-necked. Of the 3 pipeline proposals, the only one I think has a chance is Keystone XL because it doesn’t have to go through BC or Quebec. But its been delayed a long time and I think it will be delayed a long time yet.

#29 TurnerNation on 11.17.19 at 6:18 pm

#3 Still employed in AB thanks for pointing out that bad news. I’d been wondering how they could shut down rural industry and get us into cities. There will be no bailout for the people. From the link:

“My condo corporation just reluctantly signed an insurance renewal for 2020. We had no choice as we had to place insurance by law. Our premiums increased not 7% …not 70% ….but 700% in just one year!! Many of our owners in the building will be foreclosed out in the next few months barring some major government intervention (so far …crickets) … and the tenants will be evicted by the foreclosing banks. This is a policy driven, man made disaster. It didn’t have to be this way.”

– My take last week or so what that they’d use lack of insurance/insurance companies – like kindly W. Buffet’s – to do their bidding and drive people our of rural sustinance and into controlled cities.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/11/10/lest-we-ignore/#comment-674824

– A recent thread on Toronto Reddit, populated mainly by the young and the left. Slowly waking up to their future.
They all speak well of the West…until their get to that “conservative attitude” out there.
Wait a sec..maybe the East is failing Because of liberalism?! All these young liberals planing their flight. From the most perfect city in the world ?

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/dxpqxd/whats_everyones_escape_plan_from_toronto/

“Since most of the schools in downtown Toronto are full and the government is planning to add at least 1 million more people in the next ten years, I also know that I have to leave if I want to have children. My brother left last year for that reason – two small kids in a condo, all the schools in the neighbourhood and surrounding neighbourhood full (he had the option of his kids commuting an hour each way to school, or paying $30k+ for a private school). Staying means paying high taxes for public services I can’t use because they’re full. The prospect of having kids who have to do classes online because the government is so broke is not appealing to me.”

#30 AB on 11.17.19 at 6:20 pm

#15 John
Just my personal observation , but our family, the neighbors down the street and friends of ours have all sold their “ mountain properties” and decided to retire in Calgary. It is amazingly refreshing to spend time in other people’s company who do not constantly preach climate politics with self righteous abandon.

#31 oh bouy on 11.17.19 at 6:33 pm

@#12 Grunt on 11.17.19 at 4:36 pm
Get rid of the border and these issues largely disappear. It used to be worth keeping. But in recent years there’s been just as much violent crime in Canada as in the US.
_________________________________________

Where do you guys come up with this nonsense?
You couldn’t be more wrong lol

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.19 at 6:35 pm

@#7 Shawn
“Looks like Edmonton is doing a lot better than Calgary.”
++++

Edmonton , with its Provincial Legislature and all the politicians, bureaucrats, assistants, and paper shufflers that MUST be kept busy wasnt as hard hit as Calgary’s oil dominated business sector.
Thus the hammering Calgary’s economy and real estate sector have endured is much worst than “Redmonton” as some wags refer to the left leaning (union dominated?)capital of the province.
Higher unemployment = lower sales in Cowtown.

I wouldnt be moving to Edmonton yet. Something tells me a govt job isnt hanging from the trees like ripe fruit.

#33 TurnerNation on 11.17.19 at 6:35 pm

I’ve seen it myself. Large white signs attached to the construction fencing of new build kandos.
The Toronto School Board stating they are full up, spaces may not be available.
I thought taxes pay for stuff like schools – state the bootlickers? Where’s all the tax money going to from the countless new kandos?
I maintain all new taxation at this point is straight up theft. The system is a ponzi, new entrants required.

#34 Alberta Boy on 11.17.19 at 6:46 pm

Our housing market in windy Lethbridge Alberta is down 15 -20% over last 2 years and there is more to come. We are literally back to 2005 prices. I have been bleeding equity in my personal home but I am actually happy to see it come down into territory my children will be able to afford. To be honest, with all of the negative sentiment in AB these days I do not think any policy change would restore confidence in housing.

#35 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.17.19 at 7:01 pm

#27 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.17.19 at 6:11 pm sez:

BINGO! You have just described where and how I live! For six years now I have lived by myself in an older 40ft diesel pusher motorhome on a 112 acre wilderness property near Bragg Creek west of Calgary. I have a pretty secure job at a car dealership in Calgary and do a forty minute commute with a beautiful scenic drive on a very well-maintained highway. The only hook-up I have is power…I haul water. Tanks are dumped with a macerator pump into the toilet of a derelict mobile home on the property to access the old septic field. I bought this beautiful motorhome on ebay for 48900 CANADIAN dollars in 2013. It was 392000 US dollars when new in ’97. Considering my rent on this 1.5 million dollar property is only 600.00 per month the motorhome has more than paid for itself. It is definitely work to live here like I am but it is worth it. The wildlife is incredible. My point is that you can live quite well and pretty cheaply if you research, plan and are determined. I will be 62 in less than a month. Cut your cost of living people. I am living my dream.
————————————————————
Can I ask how you heat your palace?

#36 Nonplused on 11.17.19 at 7:08 pm

Garth, in your “Seeing Red” post you showed a graph of the national debt. I think an interesting graph would be the national deficit plotted with the WCS (Western Canadian Select) price. My guess is what it would show is that the deficit is somewhat correlated to the trend in oil prices. The surpluses stopped right around 2010, which is pretty close to the great recession of 2008 and subsequent collapse of oil prices. The deficit seems to have returned to zero, but not a surplus, for a while after that as the markets recovered. But then WCS collapsed in 2014 and a year or so later the deficits returned and just keep getting larger. This is just looking at your graph and recalling roughly what was happening in the WCS market.

Oil and gas are Canada’s largest cash export. I content what happens to this market largely determines what Canada’s finances look like, at least on the margin which is where the deficit lives. Ontario can keep ticking away at 1-2% growth, but it just doesn’t have the same effect as the wild fluctuations in fortune the energy industry has experienced.

If my theory holds at least partially true, it is difficult to see how the deficit can be reduced while WCS remains so far below WTI (West Texas Intermediate). It also means the deficit is largely outside the control of whoever is in power, and why Harper could not produce surpluses even though that was his intent. It also means Trudeau’s spending plans are foolish because the money isn’t there.

What Canadians have to realize is that the energy industry is not just a cash cow for Alberta, but for all Canadians. Ottawa sees substantial royalty income from oil and gas, as well as above average income taxes from workers and related activities. Or at least they did. Trudeau’s disdain for this industry and its workers shows he clearly doesn’t understand Canada. Or economics.

—————–

I haven’t done business with my realtor for many years but he is still a close friend of my parents, so I hear about him from time to time. He used to be a very high volume agent because he’s good at it and also because he negotiates a low rate when you list with him (he makes most of his money when you purchase). And he is hard working and good at it. When I purchased using him I bet we looked at well over 50 properties before we found something to my tastes and sensibilities. My dad says at this point he’s virtually out of work. Nothing is happening. Nobody wants to buy, and those people that want to sell are holding their properties off the market. I don’t think tweaking the stress test would fix that, because the hurdle isn’t that high in Alberta anyway. House prices are elevated here, but not such as they are in Vancouver or Toronto.

When does a recession become a depression? Things have been awful in Alberta for at least 5 years now, and it looks like it might last another 5 years. If Trudeau survives his 4 year minority term, there won’t be any new pipelines for at least that long. Trans-Mountain will never be built because it has to cross the orange part of BC. Energy East will never be built because the east is beholden to foreign oil imports and those suppliers don’t want to lose market share. Keystone XL will be built eventually, but not until the US shale oil thing has run its course, and that could take years. A decade even. Maybe even longer.

So anybody hoping for a turnaround in Alberta real estate, no matter what they do with the stress test, should probably take a pill. If you try and sell, there won’t be many offers and the price will not be great.

——————-

Also got word from my dad today that many of the younger folks he plays shinny hockey with (yes he still plays hockey in his 70’s, though not well I might add) are not showing up very often anymore, because they are working in the US. This is particularly true among heavy-duty mechanics, large diesel engine mechanics, welders, pipe fitters, and the like. They have no work here, so they are heading south working under temporary visas. How long until they get green cards and just move? Guess what they will then want to do with their Alberta houses? Yup. The stress test in Alberta is not the problem. Even if they removed it completely, house prices will continue to fall because the corporations, the money, and the population is leaving.

And if I were a bank, I wouldn’t be as concerned with the stress test as I would be with the prospects for the Alberta economy. There is nothing that says a bank has to lend to you just because you passed the stress test. Lending, for a bank, only makes sense if there is some prospect they will get paid back.

#37 Shawn Allen on 11.17.19 at 7:11 pm

Livin large in Edmonton

Crowded at 32 said:

I wouldnt be moving to Edmonton yet. Something tells me a govt job isnt hanging from the trees like ripe fruit.

***********************************
True, those many with government position are doing well.

Times are good for those collecting DB government pension in Edmonton.

Actually, there has been lots of building going on in Edmonton. Loads of commercial spaces. Lots of condos and apartments. High rises still going up Downtown Edmonton. Hard to tell it’s a recession in Edmonton. Maybe the bad times will soon be evident. But so far I have not seen it in terms of construction.

But I do know that a lot of people were out of work Social service office very busy. But the malls and restaurants mostly remain busy (though a few did close).

#38 the Jaguar on 11.17.19 at 7:16 pm

Oh my goodness…..I read this on the internet……………….
“The refinery that is the sole local supplier of motor fuel in the B.C. Lower Mainland is being scheduled for an eight-week maintenance shutdown early next year but owner Parkland Fuel Corp. says it is taking measures to keep prices at the pump in check.”. Mercy, this seems like destiny in the form of ‘venganza’. Price at the pump here in Calgary is about 95 per litre. What’s the price in the lower mainland? Better ditch those dirty ol’ oil guzzlers for Teslas out there in BC. I can’t stop giggling.
About this business of Alberta house prices. I see it as a positive. If the whole bloated global housing market is going to be subject to severe whiplash, better prices remain more affordable here. Those who decided to stick their necks out as investors or developers and throw caution to the wind ignored the lessons of the last ‘bust’. There was tremendous over development then as now. If you speculate in real estate you do it at your own risk.
As for Jason Kenney. I hear he is a hard worker. That’s a good thing. But he is also a career politician who never really had a job before politics and only washed up on Alberta’s beach when Harper stayed too long and national aspirations vanished. From Oakville, Ontario I think. His former boss (Harper) was also from Ontario. Does this matter? It shouldn’t given this province welcome’s people from all over the country and world. But it would be foolish of him to think there is any leverage in talk of ‘wexit’ which only fuels the ambitions of arses like Peter Downing. He is an embarrassment. Is he from Saskatchewan by any chance?
It’s +15 and sunny here in Calgary today. I hope this lasts until next sunday so we are able to celebrate the Grey Cup, a source of Canadian pride, in a city that knows how to throw a party.

#39 the Jaguar on 11.17.19 at 7:19 pm

Forgot to mention I loved the ‘plug’ for Alforno Bakery and Cafe in Eau Claire area of Calgary. Good food. They also have a ‘free air’ pump for bicycles and always a water dish out for doggies. Bless the Alforno Cafe and Bakery.

#40 Moses71 on 11.17.19 at 7:26 pm

Wasn’t Kenney living in his mudder’s basement? What does he know about affordability?
Calgary is a nice place to live if giving a comparison to Toronto. Only I miss Toronto’s cultural diversity, architecture and authentic cuisine options
Otherwise, Calgary is pretty good. Jobs are here too. Just not as many, but less competition, so 6 of one and 1/2 dozen of the other

#41 islander on 11.17.19 at 7:28 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-our-overspending-problem-explained-we-dont-say-i-cant-afford-it/

“We don’t say ‘I can’t afford it’ any more. I’m in Calgary all the time, the economy’s horrible there and the restaurants are packed, and not inexpensive restaurants. Places with $20 cocktails. We find ways to make spending happen and we use debt to do it.”

“I don’t think there’s enough conversation about the stigma of being a renter, and about doing a fair analysis of whether home ownership is right for you.”

Worth at least a quick glance!

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.19 at 7:28 pm

@#37 Shawn allen
“Actually, there has been lots of building going on in Edmonton. Loads of commercial spaces. Lots of condos and apartments. High rises still going up Downtown Edmonton. ”
+++++

Fair enough but I find a lot of those highrise projects are approved and take 3-5 years to build

I talked to one of my suppliers the other day that sells to the commercial and residential sector.
Residential is dead.
High rise condo building is wrapping up in the Lower Brainland and not much coming down the pipe other than renos and upgrades of existing buildings.
I think I also mentioned the other day about a freight courier we use….. these guys haul from the USA as bonded couriers as well as Hazardous Goods. dead……The phone aint ringin’.
Amazon toilet paper delivery services? Off the chart.

I cant wait to see what Trudeau is dealing with in his tax and spend more budget this time next year…….when The Donald may …or may not ….be President.

#43 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.17.19 at 7:31 pm

Re #35 Bytor the Snow Dog’s question about heating.

I have multiple heat sources including two fireplaces. One is a large external wood stove buried in a sand filled cinder block cube structure inside a wood shack. Six inch steel pipe buried with the stove in the sand. The pipes elbow up out of the sand straight up about 4 and five feet. I attach insulated 7″ ducting to the pipes which then enter my coach through an insulating styrofoam board in a window opening. An 8″ computer fan on the end of one duct inside the coach pulls air out of the coach through the duct, down into the hot sand by the woodstove and then back into my coach through the other duct opening. I also have two electric oil-filled radiator heaters. The coach’s on-board system is an AquaHot diesel boiler system with liquid heating and heat exchangers throughout the coach including the bays. Good skirting and a 10kw on board diesel generator on auto start. I was in shorts and a tee-shirt at -41.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.19 at 7:35 pm

@#38 The jag
“Price at the pump here in Calgary is about 95 per litre. What’s the price in the lower mainland?”
+++++

I filled up today at $1.33/litre for Regular.
It should be noted that the Lower Brainland has been paying the highest gas prices in North America $1.58/liter until about a month ago when the Provincial Govt demanded a report from the fuel companies explaining their costs and pricing.
To date the oil companies havent given a report but have issued vague news releases…..
I guess they’re busy………

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-oil-and-gas-companies-fail-to-explain-price-gap-in-new-report

#45 Flop... on 11.17.19 at 7:42 pm

Good to see the Canadian-Australian work visa programme is still working.

Canadian born Mike Henry is about to become CEO of Australian mining giant BHP, his base salary will be slightly higher than Australian minimum wage at 1.7 million AUD per year.

In exchange for this, Keith Urban is allowed to play 3 songs during the half-time show at the upcoming Grey Cup in Calgary.

Not too sure who came out on top…

M45BC

#46 Greg on 11.17.19 at 7:45 pm

Hello from the B.C. Interior: For a pipeline that will not be built (TMX), there’s certainly a lot of pipe moving around. If I didn’t listen to you people, I’d say it’s on.

#47 JSS on 11.17.19 at 8:02 pm

Edmonton also has a lot of federal government jobs that also provides a tiny bit more stability than Calgary.

Rather than premier Kenney fighting for oil jobs, he should be begging for federal government jobs to be transferred to both Calgary and Edmonton

#48 Linda on 11.17.19 at 8:06 pm

The stress test didn’t really make the slightest bit of difference regarding home affordability in Alberta. What did gut the market was the tanking of O&G (Oil & Gas) production/prices. A bit difficult to shell out $ to buy a new or second hand house when your job just got nuked. The end result is that a lot of new house & condo construction has been offered with various incentives & price reductions to try to move product that just isn’t moving. As for rentals, they too have seen incentives – first & last months rent waived, free groceries for a year, no damage deposit required etc. etc.

So yes, housing prices will continue to erode as long as the local economy flounders. Fine if one doesn’t have to sell, not so great if one does. About the only plus I can see offhand is that if the federal government does begin to tax sales of principal residences the amount they will collect from Alberta home sales won’t be as much as what they will collect from ‘hot’ markets like YVR & GTA.

#49 Don Guillermo on 11.17.19 at 8:17 pm

#25 Tony on 11.17.19 at 5:57 pm
Small point. Calgary is where people talk about doing energy stuff. Edmonton is where people actually do energy stuff.

******************************************

Bigger point. Calgary is where the large projects are/were conceived, financed, engineered and where the project management, construction management and the commissioning/start-up and turnover plans are/were created and site managed. Most of the trades and operations people come from Edmonton, but also from BC, SK, MB, ON, PQ, Maritimes, etc. I worked many years on both sides of that story and am now retired. The Calgary part of my resume allowed me to work all over the world on many exciting foreign assignments. Those experiences were incredible. In general the Calgary side was more challenging and rewarding but both were awesome. This is why I am so saddened that Canada is self sacrificing/destructing this industry. I am happily out of it, spending half my life in the tropics and half in Calgary and would love to see another generation or two of young Canadians be able to have the same opportunities and great experiences I was fortunate to have. I moved from BC via Toronto to Alberta as a young man and will always be grateful for the life that AB has given to me and my family.

#50 KaleyCat on 11.17.19 at 8:21 pm

CalgaryCarGuy – you’re right. We sold everything, pocketed the BC real estate cash, and live in our cabin all summer. No water, but yes, Hydro. Seniors, so taxes are $100/year. No OAS claimed yet – we’d get caught in the clawback.
Winters we move to running water. Van Island, wine country, travel around the world-last year in a campervan in Australia, which is cheaper then owning a house in Canada. We always rent high end, big valley or ocean views. People are happy to rent lovely homes to seniors with cash for rent.
Why isn’t everybody doing this?

#51 State 51 on 11.17.19 at 8:21 pm

DELETED

#52 DON on 11.17.19 at 8:34 pm

#16 Re-Cowtown on 11.17.19 at 4:53 pm

Not even remotely related to what I was talking about. I see that you didn’t find any instances of double hull tankers rupturing either, so you had to invent something that didn’t happen. The Titanic? Really?
Really? That’s just silly….

The Haida Gwaii spill wasn’t an oil tanker. It was a tugboat. The fuel spilled from it’s fuel tank. Fuel tank spills can happen from cruise ships, ferries, fishing boats and climate activist vessels. Just ask Greenpeace and the recent Sydney harbour incident that they tried to avoid responsibility for.

Again, none of your arguments have nothing to do with modern double hull tankers, so thanks for supporting my argument by going off topic becuase you couldn’t find anything to refute it.
**********************
1st paragraph –

I provided silly with the Titanic example CAUSE NO SHIP is safe in rough waters that is why they travel down the OUTSIDE of Haida Gwaii and Vancouver Island away from the reefs, rocks, rough currents.

2nd paragraph –

I didn’t say that Haida Gwaii was a SPILL. IT WAS A TANKER DEAD IN THE WATER they brought the coast guard and other ships in to tow it while they were trying to fix it. The point being it ran the risk of hitting the ROCKS double hull and all. One SPILL of that magnitude and the ecosystem is WRECK for a long long while.

3rd

Why don’t you advocate for refined products instead of OIL, we have a highly educated population and we can start creating more secondary and tertiary manufacturing.

4th

Take a fishing trip to Haida Gwaii and the North end of Vancouver Island in November. AND do some googling on the why current oil prices are in the lows.

AND you didn’t answer my question…Does Kenny’s war room allow for breaks? If you are allowed a break, google Gulf of Mexico Oil spill and check on the recovery there. It just take one big spill, why not advocate to ensure safety is the number one concern as other people rely on the ocean for their jobs and livelihood as well. It’s not just about you, Kenny and ALBERTA.

#53 Carly on 11.17.19 at 8:44 pm

The thing that nobody seems to be talking about is the mass oil field layoffs. They aren’t occurring all at once, but are trickling out each week. The fear in Alberta is palpable because entire shops that were previously deemed very busy are being chopped and seemingly without warning. It is a scary place to be, and what is scarier is the fact that nobody seems to be really talking about it. Those with “stable” jobs in healthcare are now looking at wage rollbacks, and these are people who already feel that their budget is tight. The reasoning behind the cuts is of course sound, as you pointed out real estate in Calgary is the relatively affordable to other cities and so it doesn’t make sense that the health care professionals in Alberta get paid more to do the same amount of work as their counterparts across Canada. But of course this negates the human factor. Wexit isn’t about a bunch of crybabies (I mean maybe slightly it is), and of course they aren’t going about it in the right way, but the fear for their future is real.

#54 Gregor Samsa on 11.17.19 at 8:45 pm

Garth’s Calgary housing chart has a clear head and left shoulder. All we need is for the right shoulder to form and then housing will actually be affordable to the common man and represent the true value again. Wooden shacks in Calgary are not worth $500K. Shoddily built condos in Calgary are not worth $300K.

Only one reason they are valued where they are, which is the same reason housing across the country is over valued: historical low interest/mortgage rates + Canadian house FOMO.

The latter is the truly inexplicable one. A huge empty country and we are convinced the next house built will be the last one…

#55 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.17.19 at 8:58 pm

Re #50 KaleyCat
“Why isn’t everybody doing this?”
——————————————————————–
Because they are afraid of enjoying the basics in life.

#56 DON on 11.17.19 at 9:03 pm

#46 Greg on 11.17.19 at 7:45 pm

Hello from the B.C. Interior: For a pipeline that will not be built (TMX), there’s certainly a lot of pipe moving around. If I didn’t listen to you people, I’d say it’s on.
**************
I am hearing the same thing. Lost on most (it seems) is that it already exists and they are just twinning it. But yet people still go on about it never being built.

#57 Don Cherry - Realtor on 11.17.19 at 9:07 pm

You people coming to this blog for your milk and honey should pay attention and give thanks to Garth Turner!

He just told you, Alberta has some good real estate prices right now. I’m gonna go there myself and get a real estate license there, too! That market’s gonna be on the move, yeah baby!

#58 Wayne and... on 11.17.19 at 9:09 pm

I’ve got significant exposure Canadian Banks through TD Dividend Income mutual fund.

With Canada heading into recession what are my options? General opinions on TD mutual funds.

I don’t know much about investing so I stick with these.

#59 DON on 11.17.19 at 9:11 pm

#38 the Jaguar on 11.17.19 at 7:16 pm
**
Out here in BC, Forestry manufacturing is tanking, but we are still shipping premium raw logs over seas. Mills are shutting down everyone. It’s what happened on Vancouver Island during the 80’s and 90s, only a couple of mills are left, literally a handful and WFP is on strike. If only we would stop shipping raw logs and provide some secondary and tertiary manufacturing again. But at the moment is about flipping logs.

I feel Alberta’s pain, so do most forestry workers. Recessions suck.

#60 Ronaldo on 11.17.19 at 9:45 pm

#55 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.17.19 at 8:58 pm
Re #50 KaleyCat
“Why isn’t everybody doing this?”
——————————————————————–
Because they are afraid of enjoying the basics in life.
——————————————————————
Not their thing I reckon. There are things I like doing that others couldn’t or would not want to do. Everyone has their own likes and dislikes.

#61 yvr_lurker on 11.17.19 at 9:52 pm

#27 CalgaryCar Guy
—–
Brother-in-law lives in Okotoks and every year we spend some time hiking in Kananaskis, Peter Lougheed National park, etc. So many great hikes, wildlife and very few people on tour buses….just pack in some food, bring a sleeping bag and tent for camping, and no need for mediocre restaurants selling over-priced food to the mass of tourists……. love this part of Alberta….

#62 fishman on 11.17.19 at 10:18 pm

Lets get back to the Donald, the one that got canned, not the one getting canned. More fun than R/E. By the way, out here in Van town R/E real good, sales up,average prices down a little cause Chicoms in hiding but millennials taking up slack. Volume way up. Anyways, Ron’s confession about that missed opportunity to save his partner from ignominy on that day of sacrifice was tortured. Reminds me of what Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe said about British PM Harold McMillan after an in- party purge. “Greater love hath no man than to lay down his friends for his life.”

#63 will on 11.17.19 at 10:25 pm

I’ve thought about that before about the stock market. If the stock market were stable and steady dividends, why would that be a bad thing? Which reminds me of a funny cartoon years ago in the new yorker: “the New York Stock Exchange closed early today. There were no trades as everyone was satisfied with their holdings.” (something like that).

#64 GRG on 11.17.19 at 10:34 pm

Garth: Your writings over time suggest a bit of animosity towards the current Alberta Premier and the denizens of his Province?

But picking on him over the stress test really is beneath you.

We all know without the utterly stupid property bubble our politicians and Central Bank have aided in inflating in Vancouver and the GTA there wouldn’t be a stress test. It has nothing to do with Calgary or Edmonton. Disposable incomes in both cities are higher than the Canadian average, house prices are below, and if there’s anybody that cannot qualify for a mortgage in Alberta they certainly shouldn’t even think about buying a Starbucks latte in Vancouver or Toronto.

House prices, rents and some other living costs are declining because money continues to shun Alberta and its capital intensive lifeblood industry. An overtly hostile Federal cabinet, along with select Provincial Premiers doesn’t help. Thankfully Alberta got rid of its own hostile-to-the-industry Provincial Government.
The latest stats show net in-migration to Alberta and continued family formation. That (combined with continued cheap mortgage money) is probably why housing is in a slow drift down instead of a much steeper decline like the early 1980s.

The level of ignorance about Alberta shown in today’s comment section exceeded even the usual abysmal daily standard. Moses71 has Jason confused with Jag, LOL.

Yes, people do retire in Calgary. Why? Because the housing is modern and affordable, the infrastructure works, taxes are lower, health care services are excellent by Canadian standards, the grandkids live here (because their parents work here) and it’s a lot less hassle and less expensive to get about and do things indoors or outdoors compare to YVR or the GTA.

I’m Vancouver born and raised. My wife is from Victoria. Left there in the late 1970s, and will never go back. We live just outside Calgary, in the foothills to the SW, in a stunningly beautiful region populated with some of the most talented musicians and visual artists in the country. There’s a reason they live here, and not in some elevated chi chi concrete box in Yaletown or on King St W.

Yes, Jason Kenny, as with all politicians (with the possible exception of the host of this site?) has visible warts and historical baggage. But he’s an experienced, better organized, more astute politician than his predecessor, who suffered an acute shortage of bench strength after stuffing her Cabinet with talentless 3rd string social workers and teachers. No Glen Sather, that one. We really expected better.

The last time around the Reformer’s (nee WCC) slogan was “The west wants in”. This time it seems more like “The west wants out”. Wexit is a waste of time. The reality is Canada’s political power is centered on the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal axis (the axis of evil?). The peripherals to either side of Upper and Lower Canada have never had the population base to significantly influence what happens Federally. Even the occasional temporary anomaly of a non-Quebec Prime Minister is viewed with suspicion, as some sort of grievous error needing correction at the first available election opportunity. We Albertans would be better off accepting that reality, ignoring the consequences and get on with those parts of our lives that bring joy each day.

#65 IHCTD9 on 11.17.19 at 10:53 pm

#29 TurnerNation on 11.17.19 at 6:18 pm
——

Man that reddit thread is a horror show, 650k for a 2 bed plus 800.00/month condo fees!

Also all the talk about Torontonians doing drinking and eating for entertainment – and that’s it!

I spent a few hours in downtown Toronto yesterday evening. Went to the RTH to listen to the TSO play Vivaldis’ four seasons. Got to see lots of drunk folks and inhale plenty of second hand pot smoke. The couple sitting next to us at the hall were also drunk, and slept through 3/4 of the performance. By the time the 3rd part of spring started, she was actually grinding her teeth, and he was making these occasional snorting noises. Nice high class Toronto entertainment…

#66 Sail Away on 11.17.19 at 10:53 pm

#57 Don Cherry – Realtor on 11.17.19 at 9:07 pm

Alberta has some good real estate prices right now. I’m gonna go there myself and get a real estate license there, too! That market’s gonna be on the move, yeah baby!

————————

I’m with you- that sounds like a great idea! Who needs oil, anyway?

All Alberta needs to do is leverage its other resources and…. oh, wait a minute

#67 Dr V on 11.17.19 at 10:57 pm

41 islander – the sayings I use are “Do I need it?” and “Is it worth the money?” because I can actually afford quite a bit of stuff.

59 Don – yes, the latest Douglas magazine actually has a decent article about it. And I agree with your view on pollution. Reduce, re-use, recycle. The first is the one most people have difficulty with.

Interesting trivia. If BC were to move completely to electric vehicles, it is estimated that 15 more hydro projects equivalent to site C would be needed. We are energy gluttons.

#68 GRG on 11.17.19 at 11:00 pm

Just an add on. You’ve correctly pointed out to us that in politics symbolism is important.

Our recently re-elected Prime Minister participated in three televised debates during the campaign. All of them were held in Quebec. What message does that send to the rest of the country?

Even the Perpetual Ruling Party (the one with red maple leaf) has dumped the pretense of alternating its leaders between Francophone and Anglophone.

Owe Canada…

#69 Barb on 11.17.19 at 11:17 pm

A bird? A plane?
No, Martha, it’s the NDP government spying on B.C. farmers again.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6180634/alr-spying-farms-bc/

The

#70 Westerner on 11.17.19 at 11:32 pm

If you’re going to start writing about specific cities, then how about Victoria? Or the places inland from Vancouver (ie Abbotsford). I’d love to hear why those places have gone crazy over the last four years.

#71 Sail Away on 11.18.19 at 12:04 am

#58 Wayne and… on 11.17.19 at 9:09 pm

I’ve got significant exposure Canadian Banks through TD Dividend Income mutual fund.

—————————-

Yep, checked it out: $4B under management, with a 2% MER; this means that the TD management team reaps $80M per year for this fund alone. Good business, that.

How strange it is that some are skeptical of the financial services industry.

In answer to your question: if I were you, I’d learn about index funds first, then act. No hurry, though, make sure you have a handle on it first. Good luck.

#72 Jenny Wang on 11.18.19 at 1:01 am

#58 Wayne, Canadian Banks are more active in the US than ever. TD has more branches in the US than Canada. Our bankers are way smarter than our government. Proviso….get out of mutual funds due to the higher the necessary fees…they’ll kill you over time. BNS gives you a sweet 5% dividend and international diversity, no fees of any kind.

#73 AACI Homedog on 11.18.19 at 1:13 am

Yup…rents look cheap in Edmonton too…$1,200 for 2 bedrooms ? Not too shabby.

#74 AACI Homedog on 11.18.19 at 1:15 am

Looks like a fair selection too.

#75 Smoking Man on 11.18.19 at 1:56 am

Just moved into my new house over looking Back Bay in Newport Beach..

My eyes look at the world from a 21 year old prospective, my body no so much.

I hurt.

Why did not hire the Mexicans hanging out at Uhale. Dirt cheap…

I’m thinking played too much hockey as a kid..

It’s a white guy man thing….I’m such an idiot…

#76 LP on 11.18.19 at 7:45 am

#75 Smoking Man

Don’t tell me, played without a helmet didn’t you.

#77 Sam on 11.18.19 at 7:54 am

If you want to use mutual funds then open an account at questrade – buy the F-series funds . These are what fee based advisors use . Many of them are under 1%

Nothing is for free when using active management

Fee-based advisors do not buy mutual funds. At least those worth dealing with. – Garth

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 8:07 am

@#64 GRG
“We live just outside Calgary, in the foothills to the SW, in a stunningly beautiful region populated with some of the most talented musicians and visual artists in the country. ”
+++++

Sooo, actually, you and some of the most talented, unnamed musicians and artists , dont live in Calgary per se.

Just one more question.
Did Kenny pay you to write that ?

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 8:20 am

@#69 Barb
“….it’s the NDP government spying on B.C. farmers again….”
++++

When was the last time you took a drive around Richmond, Langley or Abbottsford?

The mega “farm houses” are 10,000 to 20,000 sq ft and look like Motels.
Which really stand out on a 5 acre “farm” in Richmond.
Nah, bring on the satellite tech. ….its cheaper than municipal building inspectors driving around in cars all day.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-agricultural-land-reserve-mega-mansions-ban-farmland-february-2019

#80 Sam on 11.18.19 at 8:27 am

To clarify , by fee based I’m talking those that look at the situation then the client executes – it’s not hard opening a questrade account

You’re NOT fee based . You’re % if aum. At 1% groosbandbof course at that cost you would use use a fseies fund as margins are encouraged

Sorry about the confusion

Fee-for-service advisors charge by the hour and do not build portfolios or manage them. Fee-based advisors plan, execute, maintain and rebalance portfolios as well as provide strategic, tax and planning services. Big difference. – Garth

#81 david prokop on 11.18.19 at 9:04 am

My wife forced me to attend a sales event for new student condos around McMaster’s university in Hamilton. 150 units, mostly 280 sq ft @$290k. It was the second weekend they hosted it and there were only 10 units left. House lust is back

#82 Steven Rowlandson on 11.18.19 at 9:15 am

“Stable prices: how is this a bad thing?”

It prolongs the genocidal attack on the homeless and the working poor. Social justice and creating a natural society that works requires a 95% collapse in home prices to bring prices in to a reasonable relationship with real incomes and not these fantasy incomes Garth and his buddies keep talking about.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 9:31 am

@#82 Socialist Repoland.
“It prolongs the genocidal attack on the homeless and the working poor. Social justice and creating a natural society that works requires a 95% collapse in home prices to bring prices in to a reasonable relationship with real incomes…”
#####

Well done comrade!
You regurgitated Pravda from the 1950’s verbatim.

You lost me at….
“Genocidal Attack on the homeless”
And then you followed that up with a “95 % collapse in house prices”…..
The key word being “collapse” and …gee whiz……everyone would be homeless….hurray you win!

You are proof, once again, some university students spew more regurgitated drivel than others.

Speaking of wacky Professors…..how about these two.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/us/arkansas-chemistry-professor-meth.html

Perhaps you should switch your Major to Drama……

#84 NoName on 11.18.19 at 9:37 am

DELETED

#85 Ivan the Moderate on 11.18.19 at 9:46 am

Further towards the sharing economy

https://globalnews.ca/news/6089001/mountain-view-cemetery-changes/?fbclid=IwAR16tymuX4MuY2AgRihXiap8k4PIvD8sCoDjZVLY4pgiyW5z8LD8WykyvK8

#86 not so liquid in calgary on 11.18.19 at 9:52 am

@ Tim on 11.17.19 at 4:33 pm

=========================================

The Dippers got swept out and you’re still pissing and moaning like an old woman, eh?

#87 Rodger on 11.18.19 at 10:01 am

Wouldn’t it be good if the west did separate Garth?
That way we could get our resources out and be extremely wealthy? Like the rich city’s in the Middle East have done. Gas 40 cent a litre. Maybe a tax free west.
Own military. Own borders. Visa required to come in. Good for 30 days. And then only way you get citizenship is only if your grandparents where born here. Just like UAE
Something to think about.

Delusional. – Garth

#88 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 11.18.19 at 10:19 am

House prices are low in Calgary not because of the stress test but because Trudeau is destroying the energy industry.

#89 Shawn Allen on 11.18.19 at 10:27 am

Please Move to Edmonton

#73 AACI Homedog on 11.18.19 at 1:13 am
Yup…rents look cheap in Edmonton too…$1,200 for 2 bedrooms ? Not too shabby.

************************
What are people waiting for?

#90 Randy on 11.18.19 at 10:35 am

Pro-Tip: Pay off or get rid of your Debt/Mortgage before the music stops.

#91 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 10:50 am

There are quite a few writings on the net that deal with alternate locations and lifestyles, outside of previously lived in hell holes like the GTA. YouTube is packed with “off-grid”, “homestead’, and “prepper” channels that keep inputs low, and hands busy.

These movements were born out of the GFC, but gained legs on their own merits, and still grow in popularity today. The main draws are avoiding the cost/chaos of urban life, the desire to live a little closer to the land, and a taste for self sufficiency.

Conversely, just look at the expectations for Torontos’ future:

1. The fastest growing age demographic will be senior citizens.

2. Most of Toronto’s new immigrants will come from Africa and the Middle East.

3. In 50 years, the GTA is expected to have over 13 million folks living there with Toronto being home to 5 million worth.

I expect the Toronto of the future to be nearly devoid of marriage and children, and filled to the brim with old folks and newcomers. I can’t see how it won’t eventually become an incandescent mushroom cloud of violence either. Stuff way too many folks who have nothing to lose into a no-win situation and what do you think will happen?

It’ll likely get bad enough that Toronto will cease to be seen as a place to settle, rather it will be a place to get started and possibly “Canadianize” a bit before moving on to a place where they might actually obtain a hope in hell for a decent life.

#92 James on 11.18.19 at 10:55 am

#75 Smoking Man on 11.18.19 at 1:56 am

Just moved into my new house over looking Back Bay in Newport Beach..
My eyes look at the world from a 21 year old prospective, my body no so much.
I hurt.
Why did not hire the Mexicans hanging out at Uhale. Dirt cheap…
I’m thinking played too much hockey as a kid..
It’s a white guy man thing….I’m such an idiot…
___________________________________________
Well Old Man your last statement is finally something we can agree on!
So you moved to Bayside Village MHP. Perfect for an old guy like you. Now you can play shuffleboard with the rest of the retirees. As I understand your wife killed it on Forex and now you have sequestered the assets out of sight from the taxman. Good luck!
BTW don’t worry about CRA it’s the IRS that you need to be concerned with. There is no negotiating with them at all!

#93 James on 11.18.19 at 11:05 am

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.19 at 7:35 pm

@#38 The jag
“Price at the pump here in Calgary is about 95 per litre. What’s the price in the lower mainland?”
+++++

I filled up today at $1.33/litre for Regular.
It should be noted that the Lower Brainland has been paying the highest gas prices in North America $1.58/liter until about a month ago when the Provincial Govt demanded a report from the fuel companies explaining their costs and pricing.
To date the oil companies havent given a report but have issued vague news releases…..
I guess they’re busy………

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-oil-and-gas-companies-fail-to-explain-price-gap-in-new-report
_________________________________________
It is going to get worse in BC for fuel before it gets better. Buckle up tree huggers, your life is going to change for the worse.

#94 Figure it Out on 11.18.19 at 11:09 am

“Gas 40 cent a litre. Maybe a tax free west. Own military. Own borders. Visa required to come in. Good for 30 days.”

What I find so ironic about “Wexit” is that the big idea seems to be:
1) Seize the means of production (“turn off the taps”) thus screwing energy investors AND pipeline investors, and the lenders, and causing your customers to look for more reliable sources for supply.
2) Create a giant bureaucracy — police, army (air force?), pensions, foreign service with embassies and consulates worldwide, plus delegations to the UN, the EU, ICAO, ITU, UPU, World Bank, IMF, and a few hundred trade treaty negotiators, banking regulators, securities regulators (OK, ha ha, just joking on that one), customs and border patrol…
3) ?????
4) Profit!

And I haven’t even considered the currency. Try to maintain a peg or a currency board, and have your economy yo-yo with some other government controlling your interest rates? Or float the Edmontoonie, and have your currency swing by 50% every few years with the price of energy?

No country with Alberta’s small population is anywhere near first world, except for the ones who are hubs of international finance (i.e. “tax havens”).

Plenty of people elsewhere in Canada have relatives in Alberta, or have visited, worked there, what have you. The notion that the bigwigs in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver (who own much of the equity and debt of the E&Ps, and the pipelines, rails, banks, retailers…) want to see Alberta fail is NUTS.

#95 crazyfox on 11.18.19 at 11:10 am

#64 GRG on 11.17.19 at 10:34 pm

“But picking on him over the stress test really is beneath you.” – GRG

Kenney earned it. Scheer too. They both argued to have the stress test removed… and juice CMHC regs to 30 year nothing down mortgage loans too. Both moves would lead to re-inflating Canada’s real estate bubble beyond it’s peak from a few years ago, a real estate bubble in obvious crisis (even now, that’s the point) with governments trying (somewhat successfully I might add as Garth’s chart reveals) to engineer a soft landing for obvious reasons.

To think for one moment that Canada’s housing market is still not in crisis is folly since it simply is. Incomes have still not caught up to debt levels and it shows. Canada has been lolled into a false sense of security over ultra low interest rates for 11 years now. This will not last. Why? U.S. debt and climate change. In time, one of these two will implode and when it does, consumer debt in Canada will kill Canada’s economy for years all on it’s own, likely at a time when Canadians will most need their dollars most.

I get that you voted for them and you have your own bias towards them but the facts are the Cons tried to buy our votes. All parties did to some degree but the Cons (and NDP) tried it with real estate with a housing market still flashing red:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/households-debt-to-income

Even with tighter housing regs, Canadians are still borrowing their brains out. Fact is, if rates normalized at any time over the next 4 to 6 years, we would be screwed without politicians trying to bait us into more debt with so called cheaper credit. This tells me, this one singular shift in policy straight off, the Conservatives aren’t fit to lead federally.

It’s not just the over the top personal attacks on their website or the regional west/east divisional politics and obvious poor tone, or their blind eye to climate change and dramatically increased U.S. energy production and it’s implications (gas producers have had to face gas prices below the cost of production for the last 6 months because of it), its the policies in regulation and provincially in Alberta, they’ve already come home to roost.

https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/swann-stop-the-blame-game-albertas-plight-is-our-own-doing

#96 Jenny Wang on 11.18.19 at 11:12 am

#87 Rodger, millions agree with you. Time to get out of Trudeau-land and start getting what we deserve. The anchor of Eastern Socialist – George Soros controlled Trud- Canada is holding us back. A resource rich powerhouse like we’d have in the common sense pro-citizen New Republic would have us swimming in milk and honey. The sooner we drop the pretense of a unified Canada the sooner we’ll get our lives back.

#97 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 11:16 am

#73 AACI Homedog on 11.18.19 at 1:13 am
Yup…rents look cheap in Edmonton too…$1,200 for 2 bedrooms ? Not too shabby.
___

That seems too cheap. That’s about the same as I would pay out in the boonies here in Ontario.

#98 YAK on 11.18.19 at 11:16 am

@#65 IHCTD9 on 11.17.19 at 10:53 pm
#29 TurnerNation on 11.17.19 at 6:18 pm
——

Man that reddit thread is a horror show, 650k for a 2 bed plus 800.00/month condo fees!

Also all the talk about Torontonians doing drinking and eating for entertainment – and that’s it!

I spent a few hours in downtown Toronto yesterday evening. Went to the RTH to listen to the TSO play Vivaldis’ four seasons. Got to see lots of drunk folks and inhale plenty of second hand pot smoke. The couple sitting next to us at the hall were also drunk, and slept through 3/4 of the performance. By the time the 3rd part of spring started, she was actually grinding her teeth, and he was making these occasional snorting noises. Nice high class Toronto entertainment…
________________________________________

Locals generally stay away from those tourist areas.
you were probably stuck sitting by some 905ers

#99 Dharma Bum on 11.18.19 at 11:19 am

#14 yvr_lurker

Indeed Calgary and Edmonton are markets where, if you have a stable job, local people can have a good lifestyle. Unlike YVR and Toronto, rather few immigrants driving up demand for housing and rentals.
——————————————————————–
I was about to post a similar comment, but yvr lurker beat me to it.

This is very true. The Calgary – Red Deer – Edmonton corridor is a fantastic place to live. It’s unfortunate that the economy in Alberta is so “oil biz-centric”, but if you have a relatively stable job in that province that doesn’t totally depend on the energy sector, you can have a great life and a very nice house. Not to mention access to the Canadian Rockies, which are the crown jewel of Canada.

I have a family member who lives there. Decent paying stable job that allows him to live a life that wouldn’t be available to him in Toronto or Vancouver. The cost of an equivalent house in that neck of the woods is about a quarter of that in YYZ or YVR. The difference in down payment required is investable in diversified liquid assets.

It really is the best of both worlds. A place where you can have your cake and eat it too.

#100 crazyfox on 11.18.19 at 11:20 am

I see one of Garth’s old bosses making headlines this morning:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/kim-campbell-on-wexit-climate-change-and-the-conservatives-election-loss/ar-BBWWsxE?li=AAggNb9&ocid=ACERDHP17

#101 David Pylyp on 11.18.19 at 11:47 am

60% of Buyers paid the MAX they could afford
42% of Buyers FELT UNCERTAIN during the home buying process

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/consumer-surveys/mortgage-consumer-survey-2019

David Pylyp
Toronto

#102 Mattl on 11.18.19 at 12:06 pm

#50 KaleyCat on 11.17.19 at 8:21 pm
CalgaryCarGuy – you’re right. We sold everything, pocketed the BC real estate cash, and live in our cabin all summer. No water, but yes, Hydro. Seniors, so taxes are $100/year. No OAS claimed yet – we’d get caught in the clawback.
Winters we move to running water. Van Island, wine country, travel around the world-last year in a campervan in Australia, which is cheaper then owning a house in Canada. We always rent high end, big valley or ocean views. People are happy to rent lovely homes to seniors with cash for rent.
Why isn’t everybody doing this?

————————————————————-

So I like this lifestyle – save for the no running water.

But it’s not for everyone. In fact most humans like to stick pretty close to home, family.

There are lots of posts on this blog about living overseas, moving around non stop but some want to spend every day with pets, grand kids, parents, etc.

I could retire today and live comfortably in Vietnam but zero chance I’m leaving aging parents, growing nieces and nephews, close friends. When you look around and wonder why all your friends aren’t living in Camper vans below the equator that’s probably why.

#103 AB Boxster on 11.18.19 at 12:21 pm

Kim Campbell

Campbell said politicians have to have respectful “adult conversation” about difficult issues like western alienation, climate change and equalization payments — but that can’t happen if the discussion starts from a position of hostility.


—————————————–

Have an adult conversation with who Ms. Campbell?
The Liberal @holes under Mr. Blackface and his band of climate change zealots?
The ones whose every policy and commentary revolves around the destruction of an industry that produces the most environmentally clean energy in the world.
Energy that every man, woman and child in this country use everyday, and which every country in the world would kill for.

Who are these adults that Alberta is to have a respectful conversation?

François Legault from Quebec?
Comrade Horgan from Bring Cash?
Mr. Blackface?

Albertan’s are now resigned that our bargaining position ‘must’ come from a position of hostility.

We are hostile that we cannot get our product to market.

We are hostile that the federal government is trying to kill our industries.

We are hostile because our province in recession for 5 years, and massive budget deficits, still contributes huge amounts of money to the ROC with no consideration.

We are hostile due to the personal wrecked finances, corporate bankruptcies, broken families and increasing suicides, that are occurring due to policies from the rest of Canada.

We have tried negotiation for years, and it has got us nowhere. In fact, we are much worse off.

Nope. The time for respectful negotiation is pretty much over.

Don’t like it, so far?

Well you ain’t seen nothing yet.

#104 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 12:24 pm

XIU up 23.7% since the December 24th. pre Xmas sale. Good to be heavy in Maple.

#105 The Wet One on 11.18.19 at 12:31 pm

Yep.
It’s good to live here.
In E-town.
And if you bought years ago, you’re still rolling in it. Not as well as in say, 2013 or 2008, but you’re still winning.

I’m happy with my real estate situation in Edmonton.
S’all good for me.
Yay me!

#106 NoName on 11.18.19 at 12:34 pm

#97 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 11:16 am
#73 AACI Homedog on 11.18.19 at 1:13 am
Yup…rents look cheap in Edmonton too…$1,200 for 2 bedrooms ? Not too shabby.
___

That seems too cheap. That’s about the same as I would pay out in the boonies here in Ontario.

no its not cheap, its expensive where you are. If you go and check wages (hourly i gues) at stats canada, wages are more or less uniformed across provinces, with exception of alberta, they have many jobs that pays 10-20% more for comparable jobs elsewhere.funny thing you cant send link to customized table, Its all because Hayper, i guess.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410030701#timeframe

if you do this table its easier to handle
click on customize
geography
-uncheck canada,
-open “+” (lets call him drill down menu, i do call it that way)
-select all provinces
click on reference period
select 2018-2018

customized table should look like this
https://imgur.com/a/LbdqzTT

#107 Yukon Elvis on 11.18.19 at 12:35 pm

#94 Figure it Out on 11.18.19 at 11:09 am
And I haven’t even considered the currency. Try to maintain a peg or a currency board, and have your economy yo-yo with some other government controlling your interest rates?
……………………………………

There are about two dozen countries/territories that use the USD as their official currency.

https://www.businessinsider.com/usd-countries-use-dollars-as-currency-2018-5

#108 Barb on 11.18.19 at 12:39 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 8:20 am
“…The mega “farm houses” are 10,000 to 20,000 sq ft and look like Motels.
Which really stand out on a 5 acre “farm” in Richmond.
Nah, bring on the satellite tech. ….its cheaper than municipal building inspectors driving around in cars all day.”

————————————————-
All of which had building permits issued by govt.

The farmers that’ll be ensnared are chiefly the little guys whose land has been locked in the Agricultural Land Reserve since the 1970s, and who are trying to make a few bucks by allowing 2 or 3 RVs to “park” year round.

The issue is current land use.
The ALC/NDP are unmatched at destroying initiative and ambition.

#109 The Wet One on 11.18.19 at 12:39 pm

Also, why do I read the comments here?

Just why!?!?!?!?

Lordy, I must be an idiot.

#110 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 12:40 pm

#61 yvr_lurker on 11.17.19 at 9:52 pm
#27 CalgaryCar Guy
—–
Brother-in-law lives in Okotoks and every year we spend some time hiking in Kananaskis, Peter Lougheed National park, etc. So many great hikes, wildlife and very few people on tour buses….just pack in some food, bring a sleeping bag and tent for camping, and no need for mediocre restaurants selling over-priced food to the mass of tourists……. love this part of Alberta….
—————————————————————-
Some of the best hiking we have done has been in Alberta in particular Jasper National Park and Waterton Lakes National Park. Two others that offer incredible hiking is Glacier National Park and Mt. Baker. Highly recommend. Just got back from hiking the East Coast Trail in Newfoundland. Time to rest up for showshoe and ski season here on the island. Never thought retirement would be so time consuming, lol.

#111 Renter's Revenge! on 11.18.19 at 1:04 pm

#72 Jenny Wang on 11.18.19 at 1:01 am

Our bankers are way smarter than our government.

==================================

LOL it’s funny ’cause it’s true.

#112 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 1:27 pm

#81 david prokop on 11.18.19 at 9:04 am
My wife forced me to attend a sales event for new student condos around McMaster’s university in Hamilton. 150 units, mostly 280 sq ft @$290k. It was the second weekend they hosted it and there were only 10 units left. House lust is back
____

$1036.00/SF and no dirt.

I’ll bet most of those units went to folks who hope to get rich renting them to the students, and then finally sell for 500% profit in 10 years…

#113 Angry and not complacent any more on 11.18.19 at 2:09 pm

Let’s see, the count of Trudeaus industry killing spree just keeps on marching Canada into the grave. Forestry, Oil&Gas, Agriculture, Mining, all straight into the toilet after Trudeau’s interference. Now, Trudeau’s signature industry, besides giving billions to terror, is the death of his dope racketeering. Americans came in, courtesy of Justin, and stole everything. Trudeau’s Foundation in the meantime has been filled with millions. Funny how that works.

https://calgaryherald.com/cannabis/cannabis-business/cannabis-investing/cannabis-flameout-looks-almost-as-bad-as-the-dot-com-bust/wcm/2c66a065-6a9a-441e-9b87-1f7cb261b322

George Soros and the movers at the UN are jumping for joy. With Justin at the helm there’s nothing to stop the gutting of our country. Justin plans to borrow billions more. He built a system of beautiful freeways in Jordan. Confiscation of homes by his tax ghouls is coming. You know it .

#114 Guy in Calgary on 11.18.19 at 2:14 pm

#54 Gregor Samsa on 11.17.19 at 8:45 pm
Garth’s Calgary housing chart has a clear head and left shoulder. All we need is for the right shoulder to form and then housing will actually be affordable to the common man and represent the true value again. Wooden shacks in Calgary are not worth $500K. Shoddily built condos in Calgary are not worth $300K.
————————————————————–

Show me a wooden shack for $500k in Calgary. I think you spelled GTA wrong.

#115 MF on 11.18.19 at 2:31 pm

#91 IHCTD9 on 11.18.19 at 10:50 am

I’ll say it again. EVERYTHING you posted has been debunked on here many times.

Stop posting this drivel. You are a better poster than that.

We get it. You don’t like the GTA and prefer the north. Give it up with the propaganda already though.

MF

#116 Sail away on 11.18.19 at 2:44 pm

#109 The Wet One on 11.18.19 at 12:39 pm

Also, why do I read the comments here?
Just why!?!?!?!?
Lordy, I must be an idiot.

——————————–

Why do you post, for that matter, when you have such a low opinion of others?

#117 Deplorable aliens on 11.18.19 at 2:57 pm

#75 Smoking Man on 11.18.19 at 1:56 am
Just moved into my new house over looking Back Bay in Newport Beach..

My eyes look at the world from a 21 year old prospective, my body no so much.

I hurt.

Why did not hire the Mexicans hanging out at Uhale. Dirt cheap…

I’m thinking played too much hockey as a kid..

It’s a white guy man thing….I’m such an idiot…

All I saw was an aged bald dude taking endless smoke breaks while the misses did all the heavy lifting.

#118 Brett in Calgary on 11.18.19 at 3:15 pm

I am considering buying after (many) years of renting. But, I will likely take it one step further and move to a satellite town outside of Calgary. In Olds for example, there are many (nice) SFHs in the $250-350K range, which is affordable on even a single professional income. I will work remote and enjoy a reasonable cost of shelter. Sure there will be even more blood in the streets, but only a fool would expect $100K SFHs 1 hour out of Calgary.

#119 Jesse on 11.18.19 at 3:19 pm

Hey Garth – what is your opinion on investing in a corporate share purchase plan (where you get a 15% discount off the stock price on the first, or last day of the year) vs just putting away money every month in a non-reg account buying a S&P 500 index fund?

#120 AGuyInVancouver on 11.18.19 at 3:40 pm

#103 AB Boxster on 11.18.19 at 12:21 pm

Have an adult conversation with who Ms. Campbell?
The Liberal @holes under Mr. Blackface and his band of climate change zealots?
The ones whose every policy and commentary revolves around the destruction of an industry that produces the most environmentally clean energy in the world.
Energy that every man, woman and child in this country use everyday, and which every country in the world would kill for.

Who are these adults that Alberta is to have a respectful conversation?

François Legault from Quebec?
Comrade Horgan from Bring Cash?
Mr. Blackface?

Albertan’s are now resigned that our bargaining position ‘must’ come from a position of hostility.

We are hostile that we cannot get our product to market.

We are hostile that the federal government is trying to kill our industries.

We are hostile because our province in recession for 5 years, and massive budget deficits, still contributes huge amounts of money to the ROC with no consideration.

We are hostile due to the personal wrecked finances, corporate bankruptcies, broken families and increasing suicides, that are occurring due to policies from the rest of Canada.

We have tried negotiation for years, and it has got us nowhere. In fact, we are much worse off.

Nope. The time for respectful negotiation is pretty much over.

Don’t like it, so far?

Well you ain’t seen nothing yet.
_ _ _
Can I get you a tissue snowflake?

If you live and die by a boom and bust one resource economy, and you’re the highest cost producer of that resource, live with the consequences. The fact that society is turning against the product your pushing is just the deepest stake run through the heart of your economy. Get used to it.

#121 Jesse on 11.18.19 at 4:19 pm

#120 AGuyInVancouver on 11.18.19 at 3:40 pm

Can I get you a tissue snowflake?

If you live and die by a boom and bust one resource economy, and you’re the highest cost producer of that resource, live with the consequences. The fact that society is turning against the product your pushing is just the deepest stake run through the heart of your economy. Get used to it.
**************************

I don’t think you understand what is going on in the west. Bill C48 and C69 is why Alberta is angry, the market isn’t making these decisions, it’s Trudeau and the Liberals that have landlocked Alberta oil (on behalf of the the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation, the William & Flora Hewlett Foundation, the David & Lucile Packard Foundation, the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund). Gerald Butts had ties to all these groups when he was President of the WWF Canada (and then he went on the be Justin Trudeau’s adviser, do you see the conflict on interest yet?). Follow the money, it’s the only way to see what’s going on.

Brett Wilson: I’m terrified by the ‘lunacy’ of Bill C-69 – https://youtu.be/WeCf1BOv1QQ

#122 Bdwy on 11.18.19 at 4:38 pm

Great blog, great comments.

I believe Tony wins the prize for most vocally calling the epic pot stock meltdown presently in progress.

I tried to buy some put options back
then but there was almost no market

A guy I know dumped +500k of a smaller player a few weeks ago cause I screamed at him. It’s down 60%

Good times.

#123 Sail away on 11.18.19 at 4:48 pm

#119 Jesse on 11.18.19 at 3:19 pm

Hey Garth – what is your opinion on investing in a corporate share purchase plan (where you get a 15% discount off the stock price on the first, or last day of the year) vs just putting away money every month in a non-reg account buying a S&P 500 index fund?

————————————-

Hi Jesse,

Since Garth didn’t answer, I’ll jump in…

If the corporation is publicly traded, the stock meets your criteria for purchase, and is trading at a reasonable price, absolutely buy it at a discount. If it’s at an all-time or 52-week high for no particular reason, maybe think twice.

If it’s a private company, be very careful. Valuation metrics can vary wildly and often have a strong correlation to the relationship between the owner and his/her accountant.

Don’t ever allow that to be your one and only investment, though. Many Enron employees made that mistake. As long as it’s just a portion of your total portfolio allocation and you’re getting value it’s probably not a bad idea.

#124 Ronaldo on 11.18.19 at 5:13 pm

#102 Mattl

I could retire today and live comfortably in Vietnam but zero chance I’m leaving aging parents, growing nieces and nephews, close friends. When you look around and wonder why all your friends aren’t living in Camper vans below the equator that’s probably why.
————————————————————
Totally. My thoughts as well. Especially being a grandparent. Awesome.

#125 AB boxster on 11.18.19 at 6:22 pm

If you live and die by a boom and bust one resource economy, and you’re the highest cost producer of that resource, live with the consequences. The fact that society is turning against the product your pushing is just the deepest stake run through the heart of your economy. Get used to it.

—————
Hah.
“You People” are a hoot!

#126 GRG on 11.19.19 at 1:37 am

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.19 at 8:07 am

@#64 GRG
“We live just outside Calgary, in the foothills to the SW, in a stunningly beautiful region populated with some of the most talented musicians and visual artists in the country. ”
+++++

Sooo, actually, you and some of the most talented, unnamed musicians and artists , dont live in Calgary per se.

Just one more question.
Did Kenny pay you to write that ?
————————————————————

Owned 3 different houses over my decades working in Calgary. All of them SFD and all of them within a 30 minute walk (max) of my downtown offices. Try that in the GTA or YVR. Now I’m retired and we raise horses. Tough to do in the inner city, even in Cowtown. So, yes, I live on a ranch <60 min drive to downtown. That bother you?

To your second question, if you think Jason Kenney paid me to write this (LOL)…

"We Albertans would be better off accepting that reality, ignoring the consequences and get on with those parts of our lives that bring joy each day."

…you are a good example of what is wrong with our public education system these days.