What a contrast. In Calgary a major and storied Canadian energy company just proved money has no alliance. Encana changed its name, packed its bags, and self-identified as a US enterprise. The city’s commercial vacancy rate of 20% got a little worse.
In Washington Trump did a jig as the latest jobs numbers flowed in. Wow. Forecasts for 85,000 new hires were blown out of the water. Despite a strike by tens of thousands of GM workers, America added 128,000 new positions. Unemployment at 3.6% is still considered ‘full’ employment. Wages grew 3%. Upward revisions added 95,000 jobs to previous months. Black unemployment at a record low (5.4%). Economic growth is a respectable 1.9%. Consumer spending is plumping at almost 3%. Stock markets at record highs. The Fed’s on pause. Trump laughs at impeachment while preparing for a second term.
And Encana defects.
This was a message some people were trying to send during the election campaign which ended October 21st. Money has no patriotism. Whether it’s a company struggling in a high-overhead country more concerned with social spending than infrastructure or a doctor facing a 54% tax rate, the incentive to leave augments. When houses in Toronto and Vancouver cost seven figures and rents rage, employers are under constant pressure to goose salaries. The result is dangerous. Household debt climbs. Savings fall. People live on the edge. We end up with a condo-and-cannabis economy.
Now, drama aside, it’s clear our two countries are on divergent paths, and the dudes running Encanaa made a studied, deliberate choice. This is why that ridiculous idea of Wexit has gained traction in the last dozen days, and why the T2-Dipper gang in Ottawa may be in for a rocky path ahead.
The American jobs numbers are significant. They prove the Fed was right. No more rate cuts are required. They show if the US-China spat is solved, or even toned down, that economic growth can romp. Lots of new positions, increasing wages and stable labour force participation suggest that even in Year Ten of an economic recovery, things are juiced. And they point increasingly to a second Trump term. “As markets internalize that,” says analyst Ed Pennock, “they will move higher.”
Indeed, bond yields are falling. Bond prices are rising. Preferreds may be the buy of the decades. And equities are marching upward in a trajectory that promises more highs for the Dow, the S&P and even Bay Street. So far this year stock markets have returned double digits and could touch 20% by year’s end. Balanced, diversified, boring, lower-risk portfolios are up more than ten percent, and that Christmas slaughter of 2018 is a distant memory. Too bad for those wusses who turned paper declines into real ones a year ago or fled to the torpor of cash.
But, but, but. What about Mapleville?
Well, it seems clear we’re entering into a new phase of discord. The hairy, salivating beast of sovereignty has risen again with the rebirth of the Bloc Quebecois as a strong nationalist voice. The anger in oil country and environs has spawned the rise of Wexit and the Bloc Rednecois. The October election showed the fracturing of Canada along regional lines as well as the urban/rural split. It’s sad. But no surprise. Leaders roared around trying to suck off votes by giving people more social programs and government goodies instead of nation-building. None spoke about what binds us. It was all about bribes. And, as a people, we responded that way. Now we reap the result.
There’s little doubt the Libs will have adopt a coalition position to govern. Representation from the West will have to come through an unelected senator, or PMO staff. Maybe crusty Ralph Goodale will be the Trudeau chief of staff. Maybe even that lone NDP MP from Edmonton will find herself in cabinet (wearing a wire for Jag). Also pretty certain is the troubled future of young Andrew Scheer, now that Peter MacKay (and others) are gunning for him. Perhaps in Canada the Harper model of social conservativism is simply kaput. No northern Trump. Instead a return to the middle as the PC brand re-emerges.
Or, then again, we might just fly apart. The hippies and Dippers in BC. Heathens in the middle. Snowflake millennial metrosexuals in the GTA. Separatists and hockey players in Quebec. And, of course, Lunenburg.
Seriously, expect turmoil. And taxes. Canadians have just elected the most left-leaning set of politicians in its history to form government. Americans seem likely to embrace the opposite. And now they get Encana.
108 comments ↓
What is Canada? Canada is a modern, dysfunctional family. Ontario is the oldest son. He works in construction, belongs to a union, complains that he’s not paid enough and lives in fear of being laid-off. Quebec is the special needs daughter. She requires constant attention and expensive care and lives largely in a world of her own. Alberta is the hockey player. He spent a few years in the NHL but now he’s back to the minors and trying to work his way up. The rest of the family constantly criticizes him for not being a forest ranger. BC is the beautiful daughter. She’s a model, vain and self-centered. A Chinese sugar daddy keeps her in the latest fashions. Sask., Manitoba, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia range in age from 7 to 11. They’re good kids but largely forgotten in the fighting of the older siblings. New Brunswick and PEI are the toddlers and they’re just cute. Dad was in the war, worked hard all his life but is now getting old and weak. He can’t keep up and the debts are piling up. Mom spent her life caring for the family with no life of her own. This is Canada.
from what i’ve read, there are no job losses at Encana (or the new name Otrivin).
Sorry, the new name for Encana is “Ovintiv”, not Otrivin.
> Trump will look horrible as the impeachment hearings go public, but his voting base won’t care.
Garth, in your words what do you think Trump is guilty of?
The people of this country lost their way a long time ago – things will continue to unravel and taxes will swell
ding, ding, ding.
Garth just rand the troll dinner bell – again.
lol
Can someone please give me an example of preferred share etf? Thanks
Lunenburg?
>Black unemployment at a record low (5.4%).
Wait a second… I’m told that Trump is a racist.
The liberals will need votes from wherever to pass any new legislation. On the energy front they could just revert to their old ways and steal policy from another party. They then introduce a bill with most, if not all of that party’s energy platform and dare that party to vote against it. Maybe they could try this party’s platform
https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-plan-to-fix-our-energy-sector/
Husky, Encana, Pengrowth all cratering since the election….. TMX is still a long long shot…..there will be nothing left in another 4 years.. .Keystone will probably eventually get approved……… by then Trump can buy us for a few pennies……
I am sure MF will be along to tell us that Encana leaving is no big deal. There are lots of other O&G companies waiting in the wings to pickup some more business and they won’t whine as much.
And that the only reason we don’t have more O&G companies is because of greedy doctors…
..or something like that.
#7 Paperless on 11.01.19 at 4:32 pm
Can someone please give me an example of preferred share etf? Thanks
**********************************
I don’t have prefs, but this is the one most often mentioned on this blog:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPD.TO/
Why didn’t you mentinon that Encana’s 5 year return was negative 75%, while other Canadian major oil companies had positive returns? Maybe something to do with incompetence of senior management instead of blaming it on other excuses?
Flight of capital out of New York city exists too. Though it’s still staying in America, just to more favorable states.
Alberta’s UCP are certainly feeling their elected oats. Since May, the Kenney cohort have cancelled contracts, handed out corporate largess, de-indexed various public benefits to the most vulnerable, introduced legislation to delay arbitration, have instructed contract negotiators to now demand wage rollbacks, have instructed various public pension plan boards who were not under AimCo to hand over the control of the funds to AimCo (& potentially will be gunning to reassert unilateral control of all public pension funds, reversing the recently granted joint governance). They also have mused about limiting where doctors can practice – in effect, forcing doctors to work in certain areas of the province by not permitting their medical licenses to bill from prohibited regions. Now they are maybe messing with how lottery funds get distributed to charities. Have to hand it to the UCP, they apparently want to piss off everyone:)
1 Tony Hladun
==========
Read that before somewhere… sadly true.
@7 Paperless
Can someone please give me an example of preferred share etf? Thanks
ZPR, XPF, CPD …. all off between 6% – 16% since time of purchase. OH ……. BUT THE YIELD! As the man says …. “never exit an asset class”. It’s been hard, I tell ya.
FWIW …. I’m not seeing Trump on the ticket in 2020. Something’s gonna blow.
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Post of the year Garth – wonderful
Most of not all dumbocrat and socialist provinces are continuing to decline and will continue to
Good one today – thoroughly enjoyed
#7 Paperless on 11.01.19 at 4:32 pm
Can someone please give me an example of preferred share etf? Thanks
These are the Canadian preffered share ETF’s that I am aware of:
ZPR
HPR
CPD
RPF
DXP
PPS
HFP
PR
RPS
DIVS
FPR
DCP
Hope that helps, but you gotta make your decisions.
The plot is a little thicker than that.
Encana was involved in some projects that were viewed unfavourably by shareholders or investors. Management decided to relocate head office to the US to get exposure to US index funds and the capital with it. Not everyone is on board with the strategy though:
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/this-is-not-the-fix-you-are-looking-for-why-encanas-proposed-move-is-being-widely-criticized
There aren’t any layoffs occurring either:
“Make no mistake, we have a long and proud history in Canada and our assets here are world class,”
https://rdnewsnow.com/2019/10/31/encana-moves-headquarters-from-calgary-to-u-s-changes-name-to-ovintiv/
I don’t know if I would entirely paint this as some kind of geopolitcal issue like everyone thinks.
Lol every once in a while Garth seems to put out the bait for the trolls. Usually the next day or so the next post is about shutting the blog down..but man it’s always good reading.
MF
#2 JSS on 11.01.19 at 4:25 pm
from what i’ve read, there are no job losses at Encana (or the new name Otrivin).
————————-
Big deal. Some worker bees stay here, but the hive and honey are in US.
#12 PastThePeak on 11.01.19 at 4:48 pm
Just posted about it.
Thanks for the shout out!
Anyways, companies moving off shore have been an issue for decades. Nothing new. It’s also a big reason why Trump was elected down south.
You said it yourself, some other company will just fill the void. Let’s hope T2 understands that he better be more facilitative to the oil sands otherwise he risks dividing Canada further. That should mean no coalitions with worthless parties like the NDP or Bloc, but bridges with the cons. He seemed to get it in the first press conference but we shall see.
MF
#4 NFN_NLN
As a U.S. citizen and daily reader and admirer of Garth Allow me to answer that.
He’s guilty of being an embarrassment as president of the United States. Yesterday
#11 James called him a buffoon. As much as I hate to admit it James is right.
In Trumps defense look what he has to fight against in order to reverse the damage caused by the liberal democrats. Is Trump right? I think Garth pointed out the results nicely above. There lies the proof. I really believe he will tackle the debt in his next 4 years if he gets the congress and senate he needs. I think he will.
Also look at the opposition he fights daily. Easy to say Trump is a buffoon in his talk and personal actions. BUT. What would you call Maxine Waters? Pelosi? AOC? How about Bernie Sanders? Crooked Hillary. (If any citizen did what she did we’d die in prison)
I think he should be thought of as taking a fire fighting fire position.
I think Canada is a beautiful country. It’s being slowly destroyed by socialist just like we were being destroyed by every president starting with LBJ. We were shoved against the wall until we couldn’t take it anymore. Canada will realize one day what I’m talking about.
What’s he guilty of? He’s guilty of being a buffoon. I’m thinking it’s the only way he can make America great again. I’m going to vote for him again.
“Balanced, diversified, boring, lower-risk portfolios are up more than ten percent, and that Christmas slaughter of 2018 is a distant memory.”
– – –
Yep, a “distant memory”. Probably time for a review (that markets can actually correct when things are…peachy!)
So nice for Mr. Market to allow me to increase my short positions at even more favourable levels (for inquiring minds, I’m shorting Semiconductors SMH, and Russell 2000 IWM).
I could be off by a few weeks, but that ok – I’m patient.
Good Luck Everyone!
tcc
This is what you said last December in the midst of the correction (which this blog said was temporary): “Some have a pretty good idea how this is going to end (but no-one wants to hear the bad news). Chances are that 2019 will be far worse than 2018, 2nd Quarter onwards.” Of course 2019 has brought new record highs. You are, in fact, a contrarian indicator. – Garth
Its good to have our province back…hope Kenney issues free bus tickets to Ontario for the losers complaining of upcoming public employee wage cuts.
And Encana defects.
________________________________
Surprised? I wouldn’t be. This is no news news story!
With its assets of ~80% in U.S. and its pooh-bah Doug Suttles move to Denver back in, … oh, March ’18, it was just a matter of timing. And as far as Canadian operations go, this change will have no substantive effect.
Anyway, … it’s been a long, long journey for ECA. It all started with Alberta Energy Company Ltd. – an Alberta Corporation – with exclusive natural gas rights for Suffield and Cold Lake weapon ranges, … and now, to Ovintiv Inc.
Pretty much a dog for last longish while, …
Performance? -7.80% in the last month, – 53.90% in the last year, … -74.10% total return (5 yrs.).
I guess, it’s all those assets of ~80% in U.S. that outperforming! Oh, well, … but this is just a guess.
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
#24 BobC on 11.01.19 at 5:42 pm
#4 NFN_NLN
What’s [Trump] guilty of? He’s guilty of being a buffoon.
—————————
Good summary. He’s also guilty of starting a war with the media, who scrutinize every move with hugely negative bias. In spite of it all, Trump is effective.
“condo-and-cannabis economy”
No kidding, all I’ve seen lately in Vancouver is construction workers smoking dope while building the latest shoebox in the sky.
God bless Canada. How I would love to move to a lower tax jurisdiction, but my wife is totally opposed to it……best I can do is try to earn as little as possible (just enough to buy some pot) and then I can fit in with about 80% of Vancouver….paying no taxes and smoking all day.
The Encana story is ayet another tale of a cossetted CEO moving where he wants and taking the company with him. Boeing did the same when they decamped to Chicago and they’ve been on a downhill ride ever since. The same will happen with Otrivin or whatever it’s called now.
#
This is what you said last December … – Garth
Wow. Garth keeps his cartotheque up to date.
Its not all bad,any young professional can move to the states and live a better life!I know its very hard to save for retirement but live for today and not for tomorrow.
Wait for a 5 year fixed mortgage under 1.5% in a couple of years.Real estate will go much higher from here.Play the momentum stocks,the market has been going up for 10 years and will see Dow and Nasdaq make new highs every year!Some little advice for you all.
Rates will never touch that in your lifetime. Even reptilian. – Garth
“Balanced, diversified, boring, lower-risk portfolios are up more than ten percent, and that Christmas slaughter of 2018 is a distant memory.”
– – –
Yep, a “distant memory”. Probably time for a review (that markets can actually correct when things are…peachy!)
So nice for Mr. Market to allow me to increase my short positions at even more favourable levels (for inquiring minds, I’m shorting Semiconductors SMH, and Russell 2000 IWM).
I could be off by a few weeks, but that ok – I’m patient.
Good Luck Everyone!
tcc
This is what you said last December in the midst of the correction (which this blog said was temporary): “Some have a pretty good idea how this is going to end (but no-one wants to hear the bad news). Chances are that 2019 will be far worse than 2018, 2nd Quarter onwards.” Of course 2019 has brought new record highs. You are, in fact, a contrarian indicator. – Garth
– – – –
In 2018 there were ‘record highs’ in Q3, and I was cautiously increasing short positions. Then Q4 happened and I closed off shorts – my portfolio intact and went long energy among other things.
Now, we have a similar ‘record highs’ for the SP500, yet the underperforming Russell 2000 is being ignored (hardly anyone addresses the ~ -10% since 2018). So, based on what I see (which is just my humble opinion), I see a similar set up as last year. You see, psychologically speaking, most are now even more complacent than in 2018 (thinking that “even if there is a correction, the market will rebound, just as it did in 2018”).
For this reason, I think this time the coming correction will be even more severe in % terms but the rebound will be muted – for a net loss.
Aside but related, the Fed reversed position on rates because they know the economy isn’t as healthy as it appears. Why else would theys stop raising them? We’re back to emergency levels on a booming economy? Something is off in that logic – and I’m not alone in saying this. But those saying it don’t seem to get any air time in the MSM.
tcc
Just say you were wrong. Faster. – Garth
#7 – Paperless
I would suggest using Google. It’s a marvellous invention and it significantly increases your ability to disseminate information very quickly, by yourself! Imagine that! You must be from B nothing C, or Onterrible, or welfare Quebec!
#15 – Linda
No economy, no money. It’s called correcting the ship and simple math. Let me simplify this for you, if there was an economy then you can pay for things, no leggies no runnies! And btw, ‘assuming’ their pissing people off is a lot better than ‘knowing’ they’re pissing people off, like the Dippers found out in April.
Remember folks, just because you have an opinion doesn’t mean your opinion is right. Educate yourself and stop relying on others to right your wrongs in life. Trust funds are only promised to the ignorant and the privileged, the rest of us have to work for a living!
Back to work,
FW
Canada is in trouble.
Chaos is coming everywhere.
Ovintiv —- didn’t he play defence for the Red Wings?
Yeah… Sergey Ovintiv… played junior for Moscow Dynamo, then Red Army. Then was drafted 143rd overall in ’94. After he left the Wings he went to the Caps, retired and scored a gig as an interpreter for Hunter Biden. Then he bought Encana and re-named it after himself.
Good gig.
DELETED
Garth on #25 so funny.
RE:#9 Keyboard Smasher on 11.01.19 at 4:36 pm
>Black unemployment at a record low (5.4%).
Wait a second… I’m told that Trump is a racist.
====================================
Garth is making the assumption that Trump is the reason that the US economy is booming.
Hint: It is not.
Nope. I said the economy is why Mr. Market is thinking re-election. – Garth
Encana has been “co-located” in Calgary and Denver since the Tom Brown acquisition in 2004, right up to the executive. The current CEO is from Texas. Investment focus has been in the US since about 2013. The fact is that the foundational properties that Pan-Canadian and Alberta Energy brought to Encana are mostly depleted and they had been moving up highway 35 towards High Level for years. But now there is nowhere for that oil and gas to go. New pipelines are needed not just to markets but also up and down highway 35. And to Fort McMurray.
Natural gas storage, once a very lucrative business in Alberta, is now unprofitable. The problem is that storage was always treated as “interruptible”, that is it could only flow when their was capacity on the pipe, which for physical reasons usually coincided with exactly when storage operators would want to inject or withdraw. However, this has reversed. TC (formerly Trans-Canada and before that Nova) has to push so hard on the gas to get it down the pipes from way up north that there is now little capacity for storage withdrawals. Not that it matters, the gas glut makes storage margins super thin anyways. Right now the best storage spread on Henry Hub is Jan-Apr and it’s barely 43 cents. It was tough to make a go of storage at 43 cents in 1990, today it’s worse.
Things look even worse for the oil patch from a fundamentals perspective. OPEC is meeting soon to discuss whether to keep current cuts in place. If they decided not to, the major factors being an inability to come to an agreement or an outright desire to take a kill shot at the floundering US shale oil industry, prices could tank even further. The only thing holding prices up are those cuts.
Add to that the fact that there is virtually no way this coalition government is going to build any pipelines and things do no look rosy. There will be no expansion in the immediate future.
And then to make matters worse TC just had a leak on its Keystone pipeline in the US. It was a relatively small leak, most pipeline leaks are, but it is playing right into the hands of the anti-pipeline crowd. Probably several times more oil leaks every day from car engines, and this spill will be relatively easy to scoop up and carry away, but the anti-pipeline crowd is going on as if this is another Exxon Valdez or BP Horizon.
Add this all together and it is clear that things are not going to get better for Alberta any time soon. I predict net migration outflows for the next 5 years as there will be few new jobs here. The vacancy rate in downtown Calgary is not going to get better any time soon. House prices in Calgary are still relatively flat to 2007, but a significant collapse is not out of the question. There are still a lot of people out of work here and I personally know several who have left the province for employment elsewhere already. 2 are in Norway. Many are in Texas.
Albertans, tell your children to avoid the oil patch if they can. It is too volatile. Sure, in the good years you can make a lot of money, but then a crash comes and you get laid off at 50, unable to ever work in that field again, at least not in Alberta. (They always lay off the 50 year olds first.) Also tell them to be mobile. There is little to no prospect that Alberta can “diversify” extensively. There just isn’t a compelling reason to say develop a thriving technology industry in Alberta other than in support of the oil patch. It’s just too far away from anything. The only thing we have to offer is cheap energy prices and a well trained work force, but that is something that exists pretty much anywhere in North America right now. Manufacturing jobs will continue to move to Mexico, high tech jobs will continue to be in California, banking will stay in New York, and what solar and wind we could develop we also can’t move to external markets (because we are too far away. Nevada will eat our lunch.)
We wouldn’t even be able to develop much of a movie industry, even if westerns returned to fashion, because everything is CGI these days and the computers and technicians are all in California.
Wexit may not mean Alberta leaving confederation. But it very well mean many Albertans leaving for greener pastures, mostly in the US. I’d say already more Albertans have already left for the US than Torontonians left for the US after the Avro Arrow was scrapped.
If you think presidents are responsible for the economy of the USA you need to learn more about economics.
RE: #39 kommykim on 11.01.19 at 7:06 pm
RE:#9 Keyboard Smasher on 11.01.19 at 4:36 pm
>Black unemployment at a record low (5.4%).
Wait a second… I’m told that Trump is a racist.
====================================
Garth is making the assumption that Trump is the reason that the US economy is booming.
Hint: It is not.
Nope. I said the economy is why Mr. Market is thinking re-election. – Garth
====================================
Oh I see. You meant that a president usually gets reelected because the economy is booming even if he/she had nothing to do with it.
It’s hard not to be bearish on Canada.
#43 Flop… on 10.31.19 at 7:42 pm
#125 Fake Flop… on 10.31.19 at 11:50 am
…I’m pretty sure I’ve told you this at least 4 or 5 times.
Get your own handle.
Hey Lurker, this guy is thick as molasses…
M45BC
>It’s an opportunity, Flop. I took advantage of my impostor. You can do some crazy things and blame the impostor. Now where did I put that howling Bigfoot video? Ah, here it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stISzPngwh4
strange unknown noise caught on video
73,609 views•Oct 3, 2019
Oh, great. My impostor is back. (Hee hee!)
Garth USA got The Smoking Man
Bloc Rednecois. Luv it, Garth.
Count me in, and I listen to Outlaw Country, so I have creds.
Trump may be an animal, but he has spirit.
His challengers are not that lucky.
I hear his impeachers whistle-blower suddenly doesn’t want to testify. This attempt to remove him from office might become cheaper for taxpayers than the previous was.
“Things are difficult to predict, especially the future.” – old Dutch saying.
Mr. Moe has thrown down the 3 demands, none of which Trudeau will respond positively to because they are exactly the opposite of what he has been campaigning on since day one of his first election campaign.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6066881/saskatchewan-premier-scott-moe-justin-trudeau/
Kenney has thrown down the idea that maybe Alberta should exit the CPP and go Quebec style since Albertans put in about 17 cents for every 10 cents they get back. Not a bad idea, would help balance the Alberta budget. But it would be bad news for Ottawa so expect friction with Ottawa and Quebec City. This is the first salvo in the transfer payment battle.
Neither Moe or Kenney are talking outright about separation, but then divorce often starts with marriage counselling.
Where this goes is difficult to predict. Garth says it can’t happen, but unless his Magic 8 Ball is better than mine he doesn’t know either. People are not rational and they aren’t even statistically predictable, they run in herds until the last man is crazy and then they regain their senses only one by one. (Charles Mackay – 1841, paraphrased.)
What we have happening in Canada right now is that there is a herd in Quebec, running one way, which is east. There is another in Ontario, running every which way, they have no idea which direction. And another in the west running the opposite way, west. And then there is still another herd on the left coast of BC running who knows where but they have definitely been at the catnip. No herd is interested in compromising with the others.
It is completely impossible to predict what the outcome of this will be. There is a new storm approaching, and “normalcy bias” may not be the best lens through which to view it.
Hey Garth t, why don’t you change the blog name from greatest fool of all to the world has changed…lol
Thanks to my TFSA performance I am 5k closer to joining the millionaires club.
Ah, who am I kidding, gonna be dead by then…
M45BC
Mapping the Population of Global Millionaires in 2019
More millionaires live in the U.S. than any other country in the world, and it’s not even close. That’s according to the 2019 Global Wealth Databook by Credit Suisse. Here’s how the U.S. compares to the rest of the globe.
The U.S. has 18.6M millionaires, more than any other country in the world.
Europe has more millionaires than Asia, with the U.K. (2.5M) leading the continent followed closely by Germany (2.2M) and France (2.1M).
China (4.4M) is home to the most millionaires in Asia, followed by Japan (3.1M).
South America (673K) and Africa (171K) are almost entirely missing from our map because so few people are millionaires in those places.
The numbers behind our map come from the 2019 Global Wealth Databook by Credit Suisse. You can read about the researchers’ detailed methodology in the report itself. We created a map using one dot to represent 1,000 millionaires, color-coding each country by continent. Credit Suisse grouped a number of countries with a small number of millionaires together under “other” and we placed them in the top right corner. This lets you easily and quickly see where millionaires live, and where they don’t, providing a snapshot of global wealth.
Top Countries Where the Most Millionaires Live.
1. U.S.: 18,614K
2. China: 4,447K
3. Japan: 3,025K
4. United Kingdom: 2,460K
5. Germany: 2,187K
6. France: 2,071K
7. Italy: 1,496K
8. Canada: 1,322K
9. Australia: 1,180K
10. Spain: 979K
https://howmuch.net/articles/world-map-of-millionaires-2019
#11 Rednexit is alive
Exactly right there.
Alberta is suffering terribly as its oil/gas industry is destroyed chunk by chunk. Many Canadians will be happy because they don’t like oil. But they NEED it to survive. Period.
And so does Canada. Without it we cease to be viable.
So it’s time to thank the following Canadian elitists, and useful idiots on the anti-TMX pipeline,
for all of their treacherous behaviours and ignorance of what the future may bring: Suzukis/Bermans/Weavers/Horgans/and others whose names I try to forget.
Big American Environmental’s Financial campaign, in support of the protesters, and cooing words for the elitists, all conspired against Alberta and the ROC. Big American Environmental got its loot from Big American Corporate Oil. Why? So the latter could get Alberta bitumen for a song and thus ensure US energy independence literally forever. And so that has come to pass.
This is why President Trump brags that the US is energy self-sufficient.
Meanwhile, It hope that young Jagmeet doesn’t pursuade Trudeau to cut-off bitumen exports to the US from Alberta.
Then we’ll find out the power of the hot breath and rage from Big American Empire.
Canada is all about petty envy. Cant have those pesky Albertans making $20k a year higher than the rest of the country so instead of learning a thing or two from them, lets destroy them and their livelihood even if it means shaving $200B off our GDP. We will find someone to tax for the difference.
We can only hope Canada cracks up and Trump grabs the good parts.
#4 NFL-NLN…” Garth, in your words what do you think Trump is guilty of?”
To quote a meme I’ve seen several times….a black and white photo of Trump sitting…pointing straight at the camera…..
“They’re not after me, they’re after you. I’m just in the way”.
Trump is guilty of beating The establishment in 2016. He was never supposed to win.
Once this government gets going and starts the giveaways they promised to stay in power, the same groups that voted in these incompetents will be complaining that taxes are too high. The supposed wealthy one percenters we’re going to pay they were told, everything was supposed to be free.
No wonder Trudeau and team have gone to ground, they have absolutely no idea what to do.
#54 Deplorable Dude
The guilty always deflect responsibility. So far, despite the fact nobody likes him, Trump hasn’t really done a lot that, but his accusers sure have.
My suspicion is that there is a lot of “Deep State” shenanigans that Barr is close to exposing. But they can’t get rid of Barr unless they get rid of Trump, because the president appoints the attorney general.
All day long most of the MSM broadcasts Trump Derangement Syndrome. This is despite the fact that he really hasn’t harmed the US irreversibly. So he’s building a wall on the US border? So what? All it does is make it harder for immigrants to avoid going through border control. Whenever I go to the US, for work or play, I have to go through border control. I’ve never been turned back. What’s the big deal? It’s TDS.
#44 Long-Time Lurker on 11.01.19 at 7:22 pm
#43 Flop… on 10.31.19 at 7:42 pm
#125 Fake Flop… on 10.31.19 at 11:50 am
…I’m pretty sure I’ve told you this at least 4 or 5 times.
Get your own handle.
Hey Lurker, this guy is thick as molasses…
M45BC
>It’s an opportunity, Flop. I took advantage of my impostor. You can do some crazy things and blame the impostor.
/////////////////
Hey Lurker, I’m a pretty jovial character as most people can probably tell on here.
The main reason I take exception to this particular imposter is because someone became unhinged on here and wrote a post that wasn’t particularly nice and part of it encouraged the unsavoury characters of Vancouver to pay my wife a visit because of The Pink Snow Project which showed everyone exactly what was going on in Vancouver real estate.
I shut down my blog immediately and stopped sharing the information with Garth as per our gentleman’s agreement.
I don’t think it is fair on my wife that this person continues to post the sort of post that drew the ire of that person.
I could have kept going but I didn’t want my wife or any of her students to be at risk, and also there are more places available to view the type of information I was posting.
I can disagree with people on here all day long, don’t want to know where they work or live, we don’t need to intrude on each other’s lives.
I kept my blog private but dormant and people still request to join six months after I shut it down such was the desire to be in the loop.
For me the saddest part was I had moved away from the heavy losses and started to focus on improving people’s living conditions with better bang for buck available during this prolonged correction.
This is the part I normally come up with something funny.
This time I’ll pass…
M45BC
I find it ironic that you believe ‘Greater Fools’ only exist in Canadian RE, Garth. Anyone buying the major USA markets right now (SPY, Dow, Nasdaq,…) is soon to discouver this reality – that Greater Fools exist everywhere. The powerful herding instinct (to do what the majority is doing), will end in pain – again. I’ll try to not enjoy it, but I’m afraid I will.
“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present.”
– John Naisbitt, New York Times best-selling author
Central Banks are sending strong messages by keeping ultra-low rates in place – that the economies of the world are not as healthy as the ‘record level’ stock markets are signaling.
Time is the great equalizer. As long as SP500 is >3,000, I’m adding to my shorts. And my ‘shorts’ aren’t the soggy kind (LOL)
tcc
It will be interesting to see if our economy and the US economy dramatically diverge.
We missed the housing meltdown they had from 2008 onwards.
Will Canuckda suffer a recession that minority govt Trudeau will pay dearly for?
Time and a deficit spending tax increasing govt will tell
WEXIT WILL HAPPEN!
Canada has treated the West badly for far too long. T2 is simply not qualified to deal with this, and Wexit will bring down his government.
Our parting gift to the rest of Canada ;)
Encana appears incompetent
As Timmy above at 13 says it seems they have vastly under-performed the industry. And that is in spite of already having more operations in the U.S. than Canada.
In interviews yesterday the CEO claims not a single job is moving. He already lives in the U.S. He claims this is just a change of official domicile. So basically the registered head office moving on paper but nothing in substance?
If that is the case their press release did a horrible job of explaining it. The media keeps reporting that head office is moving.
Also they are changing their name to some weird meaningless word and getting a weird meaningless logo while pretending that that both have great meaning.
They pretend they are going to the U.S. to “attract capital” Why does this company that claims to be making a quarter of a billion in cashflow in Q3 need more capital? The reality seems to be they think they can get a higher share price in a U.S. ETF. Good for the CEO’s stock options.
Also this would be the ETF tail wagging the stock dog (dog a good word here). Something is wrong when the stock priced depends on the ETF rather than the other way around.
They are consolidating the shares five for one. A classic sign of failure.
This has incompetence and failure written all over it. Not a failure of Alberta or Canada – failure of the CEO and Board of Encana.
#34 ‘This’ – the word I used was ‘apparently’. Stop changing others words to make your point. Further, your assumption that others rely on someone else to ‘right their wrongs’ & the further assumption that those others haven’t worked make it clear you need to educate yourself. The Alberta economy isn’t dead, nor does it solely rely on O&G. Though I am wondering if the about to depart Encana received any of the recently distributed UCP government largesse towards corporations. Perhaps you might make yourself useful & let us all know if that were the case.
#41 Rural Rick
So you think others should learn economics if they think there’s a connection between eliminating over 800 costly, needless regulations and lowering taxes and an improving economy? Others Should?
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2017/07/20/trump-admin-war-on-regulations-paid-off-n2357693
Encana and Canadian ETFs
The worse scenario would be that Encana becomes a U.S. company and is removed from the Canadian ETFs at about its current depressed price. Then it rises sharply simply because of being a U.S. company and therefore more attractive to U.S. investors or its profits improve.
The Canadian ETFs would not enjoy the upside.
A better scenario is if it can remain in the Canadian ETFs despite becoming a U.S. citizen. Maybe it can be a dual citizen?
Encana / Ovintiv new mission
“To make modern life possible for all.”
I am not making that up. It’s from their Q3 presentation. What an incredibly general mission or slogan or whatever. Sounds more like the mission of the Sun or the earth or the air. Did they actually pay someone to come up with this meaningless crap?
******************
Maybe Alberta can use it as a mission with a little tweak:
To make modern life possible for oil.
Check out this real estate insanity from my former land of thieves and prostitutes.
340k for a garden shed.
Are drugs legal there too…
M45BC
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/brighton-beach-box-record-price-buyer-swoops-for-quick-sale/?rsf=syn:news:nca:hs:article
A couple of points of clarification, if I may.
I thought moving to the US was the advice around here, Doctor? Move to the US. IT guy? Move. Engineer? Move.
Suddenly it doesn’t fit your narrative or what? Encana’s move has been in the works and planned out well before it happened. Doubtful T2 had anything to do with it at all.
A few points on the US. For the third year in a row the average life expectancy of an adult male has declined in the US.
Two significant mass shootings last week bringing the total ytd to 353. That’s not number of deaths or injuries, that is the number of mass shootings in the US in 2019.
I have a friend in WA. His property and mine are very similar. He has 1/3 acre, I have 1/4. We both live on a year round stream, his is trout, mine is salmon. He’s an hour from saltwater beach, I’m 20 minutes walking.
He’s about an hour from the big city in stop and go traffic, I’m an hour from a small city on almost always empty two lanes each way divided highway.
His property taxes are four times mine. Mine also includes things he pays for on top of his property tax like garbage pick up and water.
Things are not always as they are presented to you, especially when you are predisposed to do the heavy lifting for those that couldn’t even begin to care about you. Big, strong conservative men (mostly) parroting the anti-intellectual tripe promulgated by folks who don’t have the balls to explain the real agenda out loud.
Come back when you know the difference between your and you’re and the definition of neoliberal.
I’m of a generation that me and most of my friends, when little, had fathers, uncles, even grandfathers who died in war for this country. Canada. I never got to meet my paternal uncle nor grandfather due to this war. But I sure get to read you lot bitching about and pissing on my country, Canada.
Like I used to say to my staff, “Don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.”
And lets try and remember, big, strong, conservative men don’t whine and bitch and moan; they silently get to work fixing the issues.
Bloc Rednecois
One of your best, Mr. T.
When houses in Toronto and Vancouver cost seven figures and rents rage, employers are under constant pressure to goose salaries.
——————————————————————-
They could also do like they did in the early 80s and move their head offices to Calgary and take advantage of the lower house prices and cheap commercial real estate.
#4 NFN_NLN on 11.01.19 at 4:28 pm
Garth, in your words what do you think Trump is guilty of?
——————————————————————
In the minds of the dems he is guilty of winning the election.
Putin still runs the Whitehouse though, right? MBS gets a bit of a say too, right?
#62 – Linda
I think it’s best you look up economic time lags and then ponder current federal and previous provincial government policies.
I will no longer argue with a person who uses ampersands mid sentence, who thinks one sector directly contributing 25%+ to a provincial GDP is not substantial, and thinks that all work should be considered equal.
LW
won’t surprise me to see more companies leave Canada to go to the US. With all the taxes and red tape here, and down south cutting everything.
Any bets that TC Energy is following suit?
Ustabe at 67:
I’m of a generation that me and most of my friends, when little, had fathers, uncles, even grandfathers who died in war for this country. Canada. I never got to meet my paternal uncle nor grandfather due to this war. But I sure get to read you lot bitching about and pissing on my country, Canada.
*************************************
Hear, hear… that’s worth repeating.
We also hear how that generation had it so easy in the job market. Well, those who survived the war at least.
Maybe they earned it?
go south young man!
Two of my great grandfather’s made their fortunes there in the 1920s and returned home. To late for me but for my kids a highly likely option.
Garth. Encana is an oil company. Oil is international. Since T2 decided to kill Northern Gateway despite its regulatory approval, he told all oil companies that they were not welcome here.
Canadian companies have nowhere to go. All the majors left. Encana has done the same.
This is capital flight. T2 has driven petroleum out of Canada. Encana is an international company. It has feet, those feet don’t like risk they can’t understand. Oil is risky enough, not knowing if rule of law exists where it should is a risk that can’t be properly calculated.
Enbridge spent 500 million bucks jumping through hoops that 5 years previously should have cost no more than 50 million bucks. That’s unacceptable risk.
Encana, Shell, Conoco, etc operate everywhere. Places with no law, places with clear laws and everywhere in between and make money for us their shareholders.
They are gone. More are going.
Canada’s leadership has decided that Canada gets to freeze in the dark. Not based upon science, but on the anti-human ideas of the Marxist environmental movement.
Even the UN knows that petroleum is not replaceable. They claim that it will take 40 years to replace it as an energy source. They know that no one can predict that far in the future. They know the number is bull.
Yet the Trudeau Government imagines that it can kill an industry and have good outcome. We in the petroleum industry are leaving. The only ones staying are trapped here. Suncor, Syncrude, etc will not be able to expand and grow. Look at rig counts in Canada, ignore heavy oil drilling for in-situ heavy oil. That tells the tale, no conventional oil, a few pure hoax resource plays.
Canada is cold. Good luck heating your house in 5 years. Good luck filling your car.
@#67 Ustabe on 11.01.19 at 9:00 pm
________________________________
Bravo Ustabe.
don’t let the doomer & dullard crowd on here get you down.
#53 not 1st on 11.01.19 at 7:49 pm
Canada is all about petty envy. Cant have those pesky Albertans making $20k a year higher than the rest of the country so instead of learning a thing or two from them, lets destroy them and their livelihood even if it means shaving $200B off our GDP. We will find someone to tax for the difference.
We can only hope Canada cracks up and Trump grabs the good parts.
******************************************
You’ve got this right. It’s all about envious people pretending to be environmentalists. Canada is done RIP
Well done post Garth!
Wifey and I are moving out of Liberal London. Offers are now in play. Might as well cash out now with this market as hot as it is here. Moving to a more Conservative WASP land. There is too much diversity, Liberalism, cultural clashes and societal fracturing to stay here anymore. We don’t like it here and therefore we are leaving!
Great reading your posts Garth but life is too short to stay around an area that is experimenting with cultural diversity that is clearly failing. When governments flood a city with people that are too different from one another then the natives leave. We are tribal creatures and we want to be around those who are like us who share our culture and values! Governments cannot change that……EVER! Inclusion, multiculturalism, diversity, identity politics………..DO NOT WORK! All this accomplishes is making people leave the areas they were born in!
#65 Shawn Allen
“To make modern life possible for oil.”
You are welcome to live without it if you can. Stay away from gas pumps, buses and grocery stores and turn off your furnace and lights.
Yes, preferred share ETFs. I already have some exposure but am loading up on more. If you want to buy a bargain, look for something that’s getting about as much attention as the program of events for the 1964 Tillsonburg Fall Fair, and that would be preferred share ETFs right now.
Why didn’t you mention that Encana’s 5 year return was negative 75%, while other Canadian major oil companies had positive returns? Maybe something to do with incompetence of senior management instead of blaming it on other excuses?
——————————————————-
Consistent with what I’ve read. To entirely blame the government is like trying to also blame the government entirely for GE scaling back operations and laying people off in Peterborough. No, it couldn’t possibly be any of management’s fault.
Ronaldo, post #69:
Makes perfectly good sense to me. If CP Rail can move to Calgary I don’t see why other companies can’t. Maybe it’s got something to do with Torontonians that don’t understand there’s a whole big world outside the GTA. I think only now some are starting to discover places like Kitchener, Brantford, Guelph, and Barrie. In another 80 years they might discover Sudbury and Windsor, but don’t count on it.
” Maybe even that lone NDP MP from Edmonton will find herself in cabinet (wearing a wire for Jag)… ”
Garth, have you ever considered a second career as a comedian? Or a novelist? Seriously! :O)
My old abdominal hernia is rupturing from laughing! Now we all know why you couldn’t last as a politician on that Hill of hate…
Garth,
I believe you misunderstand and underestimate Wexit.
Rob
#72 ‘This’ – Oh, my, what big assumptions you have. Nowhere in my posts today have I stated that O&G is not substantial. Nor have I stated that all work should be considered equal. I did however call you out on your meadow muffins.
#40 ‘Non’ – you seem to have a good handle on the issues facing the energy sector. I agree that it is highly unlikely any new pipelines will be built in the near future. Even if one were approved, how many years would it take before it was completed & ready to operate?
As for the skills exodus, people will move to where work can be found. I agree with your point that the O&G industry appears to be waning, but the world still needs energy. Whatever replaces O&G will need skilled workers too.
My animal spirit is hiding somewhere in wmu53a. I am going solo this year, wifi bailed on me last min…, so if iam not posting nonsense by next week send crazyfox and yellow tractor dude to the rescue.
Here is interesting read
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50228549
68 Barb on 11.01.19 at 9:13 pm
Bloc Rednecois
One of your best, Mr. T.
He didn’t coin it…. and out here where we homesteaded this land we wear the phrase as a badge of honour, but you wouldn’t know anything about that… and isn’t there a pride parade or Greta speech you should be attending
Canada has black face..
I love Trump. Not ashamed…
https://youtu.be/gWAgIVNzHKs
Communist suck.
Risk takers rock…
America is open for business… We welcome Canada money..
#51 Flop
Europe has more millionaires than Asia, with the U.K. (2.5M) leading the continent followed closely by Germany (2.2M) and France (2.1M).
China (4.4M) is home to the most millionaires in Asia, followed by Japan (3.1M).
———-
Flop, as usual your numbers don’t add up.
Please stick with reporting on RE in Vancouver East.
#75 Shawn Allen on 11.01.19 at 9:52 pm
Ustabe at 67:
I’m of a generation that me and most of my friends, when little, had fathers, uncles, even grandfathers who died in war for this country. Canada. I never got to meet my paternal uncle nor grandfather due to this war. But I sure get to read you lot bitching about and pissing on my country, Canada.
————————————
Ustabe, there are plenty of people who also fought in modern times. If we bitch about the country, maybe it’s for a reason. And the fighting was done so everybody is allowed to bitch to their heart’s content.
When the economy implodes and all that’s left standing is the Oil and Gas industry (cuz that’s not a luxury it’s a necessity) we’ll see who gets the last laugh.
….and like Mr. GT has now finally accepted after realizing the power of a dollar bill Trump will not be impeached and he will serve a 2nd term.
Key Takeaways:
1) A HUNDRED DOLLAR BILL IS A HUNDRED DOLLAR BILL
and,
2) YOU CAN’T STUMP THE TRUMP!!!!
DELETED
I try to read all comments so I am several days behind the topic du jour. Right or wrong they keep me grounded since I am an adult able to measure. I don’t seek to confirm my beliefs but I will defend them till proven wrong since I listen. Being born rich would have been nice but I have few things to be ashamed. There are many events I could have done better. I seldom lie to promote myself or protect my butt. I will lie to protect other people and have been disappointed – part of growing to recognise those that matter.
Speaking of butt, I would love to take on Gerald Butts – the man annoys me.
This comment was modified. – Garth
@ #40
“Albertans, tell your children to avoid the oil patch if they can. It is too volatile. Sure, in the good years you can make a lot of money, but then a crash comes and you get laid off at 50, unable to ever work in that field again, at least not in Alberta. (They always lay off the 50 year olds first.)”
Excellent post.
Why is the likelihood of being laid off in mid-life lost on so many? If ever there was a great reason to save and max out RSP’s and TFSA’s, this is it. Happens to millions in this ageist world, yet far too may live for today on future money.
If Canada’s economy goes into the crapper, we’re all in for one heck of a ride – regardless of age.
Getting out of debt and saving will make that largely inevitable bump in the road far less damaging.
@#89 Ponzie’s plithy prognosticating
“Europe has more millionaires than Asia.”
++++
Reading skills affected by a bit of Friday peach schnapps Ponzie?
Flop wasnt discussing “Europe” .
He was discussing “millionaires BY COUNTRY”….
And the way the EU is bickering and sniping …..I doubt even your beloved “One Europe” will last another 10 years.
If the economic down swing doesnt do it first…. :)
Time for you to switch to beer ?
Hell yeah, now we are talking.
Forget Greenland — Trump should offer statehood to these Canadian provinces
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/forget-greenland-—-trump-should-offer-statehood-to-these-canadian-provinces/ar-AAJJnFq?ocid=spartanntp
Canada does not exist
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=w-l-gEG4kRM
Like it or not, I have made my stand in Canada. Its not my motherland but my homeland. Money comes and goes. Its just a game for people who know how to play it. It should not become an obsession.
There are much, much more important things in life.
67 Ustabe on 11.01.19 at 9:00 pm
Probably the post of the decade there.
Everyone should read it.
MF
95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.19 at
I agree.
The EU is on borrowed time.
MF
#67 , well said Ustabe ….
#85 Linda
I agree with your point that the O&G industry appears to be waning, but the world still needs energy. Whatever replaces O&G will need skilled workers too.
————————————
Agreed. Upcoming replacements for Oil & Gas…
1. Near term: a lot more Oil & Gas.
2. Medium term: Nuclear Fission
3. Much longer term: Nuclear Fusion
Note the distinct absence of wind, sunlight, bio-fuels and old-fashioned elbow grease in the list above.
Maybe more hydroelectric, though.
I find it incredible that there is no mention of the debt that is piling up in the US to fuel this growth. This growth isn’t organic. They are running near trillion dollar deficits in what are, based on this post, good times.
I can’t stand Trudeau but if he cut taxes significantly and ran 75 billion dollar deficits would this be a good thing?
Living without oil
#81 Nonplused on 11.01.19 at 10:52 pm
#65 Shawn Allen
“To make modern life possible for oil.”
You are welcome to live without it if you can. Stay away from gas pumps, buses and grocery stores and turn off your furnace and lights.
*******************************
Umm, I said maybe the quoted phrase would make a good mission for Alberta.
I did not give any hint in that post or any other that I was against oil production or use. Though I did say I was in favor of the carbon tax.
I was just pointing out how silly it was for Encana to have a new mission “to make modern life possible for all” I first read that as possible for oil, which I thought was ironic.
Making the modern world possible is the job for knowledge and such things as electricity and yes energy. It’s not the job of any one company although perhaps that was what they were getting at – that energy makes modern life possible. If so, I agree.
P.S. Your attitude of telling those against additional oil development that they can no longer drive etc. is juvenile. The fact is that people have largely accepted that added carbon consumption is damaging. Taking juvenile positions with the majority of the population is not going to help.
Even Premier Jason Kenny just imposed a higher carbon tax on industry. He should not have removed the carbon tax on consumption. That removal weakened Alberta’s credibility on the issue.
By the way, my homeland, Cape Breton was once a power house for coal mining and shipping and to a lesser extent steel. Things change. All three went to zero. Cape Breton still pines for the ancient days when Sydney Harbour was a busy as New York. Things Change. And there was no shifting the economy. Cape Breton’s economy in relation to other areas simply withered. Alberta might want to study such history.
For the first time, I feel lucky to have a double citizenship.
Re: #58 tccontrarian on 11.01.19 at 8:14 pm
Go short from the open November 19th to the close on November 26th this year.
#102 ‘Damn’ – I have been doing a bit of research on alternative technologies as eventually our current vehicle will need replacing. While oil & gas will still be in use for quite some time to come, the production of vehicles that use gas exclusively looks set to change with some manufacturers claiming they will only sell electric powered vehicles after a certain date. Further, there are at least two prototype air powered vehicles being tested. Instead of oil, gas or electricity highly compressed air will drive the engine & thus will produce zero emissions.
Of course the top driving speed is much lower than that possible with gasoline or diesel powered engines & the driving range too. However both are more than enough for the majority of urban users to have the convenience of a vehicle as they do today with the plus that pollution from burning fossil fuels or the production/disposal of batteries for electric vehicles would be nil.
#104 ‘Shawn’ makes an excellent point that old makes way for new with potentially permanent economic impact. I truly believe that oil & gas will be in demand & production for quite some time to come. However the sheer speed of change in today’s world may well bring those economic impacts far sooner than most would believe possible.