Could be worse

It’s been one of those weeks. Whew. Where to start?

The president of the USA is being impeached, but will likely survive it. Trump might even welcome it, letting him play David to the deep state’s Goliath. Mr. Market still thinks Republicans will own the White House next year and that Elizabeth Warren’s a commie.

Interest rates are not plunging, dropping or going negative. Get over it. The Bank of Canada held the line, making no cut and saying it, “will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment and pay close attention consumer spending and housing activity–as well as to fiscal policy developments.”

In the States the Fed trimmed a quarter point (the third one), then said it’s done. No need for those four more nips that were expected just a few months ago, since the economy is doing fine, unemployment is the best in half a century, corporate profits are ducky and consumer confidence high.

Stock markets have been in record territory. Volatility (as measured by the Vix) is as interesting as Saskatchewan. The interest rate cuts of the last few months are just now working their way through the US economy, while inflation, incomes and spending are as expected. In short, expect more record highs.

What’s a likely scenario this Halloween, 2019?

Trump will look horrible as the impeachment hearings go public, but his voting base won’t care. The president will do something radical in 2020, with likely candidates being (a) an abrupt end to the China trade war, igniting markets or (b) a broad-based personal tax cut, igniting markets.

He wins the election after the Democrats have vivisected themselves and picked the wrong person.

The next interest rate moves by the Fed are up, not down. Bond yields shoot higher along with the capital value of preferred shares. The Bank of Canada looks like a genius for having remained calm and stoic when other CBs were spreading more stimulus than Beyoncé.

Rising rates bring a crisis to Ottawa, where the T2 gang has opened up the spending spigots, goosing the deficit and plumping the debt. Rising debt servicing costs wreak havoc with the fiscal plan, causing the feds to up taxes. All the 1%ers riot, but nobody notices. Meanwhile Peter MacKay shivs Scheer, takes over the Cons, and keeps Trudeau up at night with the thought of fighting Progressive Conservatives, instead of dinos.

Mortgages are never again 3% or less. The stress test rate goes up. Real estate stalls.

Jason Kenney loses 25 pounds, gets a black horse named “Wexit” and rides bare-chested with a Glock in his belt from Edmonton to Calgary prior to the Alberta referendum.

Or, not.

In any case, the winds of change are howling. Those who counted on a recession and falling markets will probably be disappointed. The bank will never pay you to take a mortgage, like in Denmark. And the longer than Donald Trump stays in office, the bigger corporations will grow and the more California will burn.

There’s plenty to be scared about. Just not what you thought.

118 comments ↓

#1 Dudlow on 10.31.19 at 3:07 pm

Dang it all, Garth, your sense of humour got coffee up my nose again! Your familiar prose style surely is a winner. Rock on, Dude!

#2 Chris Gerard on 10.31.19 at 3:21 pm

The responsible and prudent get punished with higher taxes, fees, cost of living and lower interest rates every 5 year period compared but the irresponsible, not prudent get rewarded with government giveaways, handouts, government welfare, social programs.

the only thing left is we all starve and lose everything. What a great measure to use for working 35 years and getting picked our pockets day in and day out.

#3 CJ on 10.31.19 at 3:27 pm

Garth, the California fires are due to forest mismanagement. You might want to do some research.

#4 PastThePeak on 10.31.19 at 3:35 pm

The next interest rate moves by the Fed are up, not down.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This was a funny line. The Fed tried to make it clear they were “staying put”, if they can. And they might, for a few months.

On raising rates:
“I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.”
– No sign of inflation, let alone persistent, significant inflation. That didn’t happen when the economy had much more gas in the tank
– Interest rates aren’t going up *anytime soon*

On lowering rates:
The situation would need to show substantial change from present
– Or the S&P 500 goes below 2800…
– Or Trump goes on a tear and rips the Fed weeks on end…

The Chicago PMI is out and shows the worst 8 month slide in decades. It went deeply into contraction (43.2, vs. 48 expectation). Some recent Chinese PMIs were also below expectations. Lots of US economic numbers are not looking very good (really only the U3 unemployment number is “good” – many others just ok or bad).

Pretty certain the next Fed move will be further down…

#5 Doug in London on 10.31.19 at 3:35 pm

Yes, a great time to scoop up some of those dirt cheap preferred share ETFs while they’re still on sale.

#6 Westcdn on 10.31.19 at 3:41 pm

I have being trying my hand at option trading. It is certainly easier to buy then sell. I have to remember to leave something on the table for the guy behind me. I am still learning. The commissions hurt. The main thing is to be right more times than I am wrong and sell those lousy decisions. The market owns me so I take what I can get. Most investment advisors think I should have died a long time ago. I am pretty thin on the ground according to them but I am quick so far. I don’t expect that to last so I am getting defensive. Good preferreds are on my radar.

I have decided to hold most of my losers because I suspect a higher capital gains inclusion. I have had a good run on REITs and think it is time to rebalance to preferreds. I just think the tide is going out and we are going to find bad things. Yet there are good companies so I will seek them out. One thing about getting old is s##t does not matter as long as I can breathe, pay my bills and make decisions (you may not like them).

Funny, I think Trudeau should bring on Brad Wall as a represented voice for Western Canada – it would likely make Justin chock.

#7 Figmund Sreaud on 10.31.19 at 3:41 pm

Whew. Where to start?
____________________________

Well, … just enjoy Hollowe’en Treat, … tonight:“Night of the Vampire”! [… by Roky Erickson]
https://youtu.be/NqRdqw0VDXw

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#8 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.19 at 3:41 pm

After finishing high school in the top 90% of my class I decided to further my education by attending Tony’s College of BS Knowledge for four years and graduated Dumma Cum Loud Eh. I then progressed to a rewarding career in the gravel industry turning big rocks into little rocks for forty years. My prediction is: no significant move in interest rates. Chillax.

#9 Joe Schmoe on 10.31.19 at 3:47 pm

Poor Saskatchewan.

Where is the best place to live in Canada?

I landed in Calgary for reason in 1996 but thinking it’s time for change for the sake of change.

#10 Caledondave on 10.31.19 at 4:00 pm

“Garth, the California fires are due to forest mismanagement. You might want to do some research”,

Actually the Foresters had to bow down to the politicians. The Foresters would have embraced the “let burn theory”, which would have eliminated all the dead dry fuel. The politicians on the other hand are all clueless

#11 James on 10.31.19 at 4:14 pm

#3 CJ on 10.31.19 at 3:27 pm

Garth, the California fires are due to forest mismanagement. You might want to do some research.
_____________________________________________
You have been listening to the Orange Buffoon way too much. He is pushing the raking of the forest floor bullshit and ignoring the obvious.
The enormous amount of natural fuel and compounding atmospheric conditions contribute to the annual series of destructive fires in California. The state only receives its minuscule amount of moisture in the winter months (hopefully). Everything in the state from April until November is a tinder box just waiting for a simple spark. Even if forest mismanagement was at hand (which it is not) you could never beat the dry Santa Anna winds. The state lacks water and moisture it is that simple. Almost the entire state is arid and the fact that 40 million people live there doesn’t help matters. Cars, trains, electrical suppliers, manufacturing, stupid people that start fires all exasperate the issue. So cut the bullshit!

#12 Smartalox on 10.31.19 at 4:16 pm

The California fires are as big and as devastating as they are, because hot dry winds blow through the canyons. Sure, the forests are full of ‘fuel’, but until that fuel reaches a critical temperature, and is sustained with enough oxygen, that fuel is not a danger.

But of fuel, heat and oxygen, the easiest to control is fuel.

#13 Dave on 10.31.19 at 4:19 pm

Encana (Energy Canada) is leaving Alberta and changing its name. There already has been a mass exit of capital from this province – now things are getting far far worse.
Is the only hope for Alberta is the next federal election where Conservatives win?

#14 Mattl on 10.31.19 at 4:21 pm

“Mortgages are never again 3% or less. The stress test rate goes up. Real estate stalls.”

This signals that mortgages will be below 3% soon and we can expect RE to climb higher.

#15 Linda on 10.31.19 at 4:29 pm

A bare-chested Jason Kenney. Now THAT’S scary. Happy Halloween!

#16 not 1st on 10.31.19 at 4:55 pm

Somebody should remind Poloz that our economy is dependent on resources, not unicorns and fairies.

#17 Camille on 10.31.19 at 4:57 pm

Mr. Turner, please be a good gonzo journalist. No need to tell us it’s fiction or truth. Fun to read, thank you. Gentleperson who said yesterday maybe real estate makes sense in a nirp or zirp interest rate environment got me thinking. Real estate as gold?

#18 Sovavia on 10.31.19 at 5:04 pm

(1) How can the Fed raise rates without Europe and Japan doing the same?

(2) Negative rates were supposed to be an emergency measure in Switzerland, but now the SNB cannot get rid of them because the ECB also has the negative rates bug.

(3) Forget binary thinking: put a probability on the possibility that you are wrong (there is still downside on preferred shares).

#19 David Pylyp on 10.31.19 at 5:13 pm

What are you scared about @GarthTurner

@DavidPylyp
Toronto

Re/Max agents. – Garth

#20 Thedood on 10.31.19 at 5:35 pm

#13 Dave on 10.31.19 at 4:19 pm
Encana (Energy Canada) is leaving Alberta and changing its name. There already has been a mass exit of capital from this province – now things are getting far far worse.
Is the only hope for Alberta is the next federal election where Conservatives win?
________________________________________

Think its too late for that. Big Oil & Gas exodus out of Canada has been ongoing for a while now. All planned, paid for, and executed beautifully by American Oil & Gas. LOL! Canadians are a bunch of suckers, what can we say.

There is no way a Canadian government is going to bring in the kind of big investment needed to rebuild the industry within the next 10 or 20 years without giving away the farm. We’ve proven in multiple recent federal and provincial elections that we are a socialist country with a socialist agenda. Investors hate socialists. No money coming here anytime soon.

#21 BobC on 10.31.19 at 5:38 pm

#11 James

Sure, they love supporting the “orange buffoon”. James, TDS is real. Seek Help.

https://lhc.ca.gov/report/fire-mountain-rethinking-forest-management-sierra-nevada

#22 akashic record on 10.31.19 at 5:43 pm

Bitcoin whitepaper is 11 years old today.

“The cryptocurrency’s appreciation thus stands at a staggering 304033233% as of press time, with Bitcoin currently trading at $9,120.”

Happy Birthday, baby…

#23 JG on 10.31.19 at 5:46 pm

I dont always agree with you 100% , Garth, but best post ever!!

#24 Shawn Allen on 10.31.19 at 5:52 pm

Rate Reset Preferred Shares

#18 Sovavia on 10.31.19 at 5:04 pm said:

(3) Forget binary thinking: put a probability on the possibility that you are wrong (there is still downside on preferred shares).

**********************************
Always some probability of interest rates going even lower for even longer.

In that scenario of say 1% on a five year government bond, why should rate reset preferred shares yield (as now) about 5% or more? When will 4% of a rate reset pref share start to look quite good in comparison to 1% on a bond?

#25 Nonplused on 10.31.19 at 5:56 pm

#13 Dave

I have friends that are still at Encana and they are being told the move will not have much impact on Canadian operations beyond what has already been done. Encana hasn’t been spending any money in Canada for years, but they will still have Canadian assets that need to be operated unless they sell them. But still, the head count is way down since 2013 and will stay that way until the oil patch recovers, if it ever does.

#26 Renter's Revenge! on 10.31.19 at 6:01 pm

Sad about Encana, though. I can understand why Albertans are angry and frustrated. Very disappointing performance by Trudeau.

#27 Figmund Sreud on 10.31.19 at 6:01 pm

Jason Kenney …… gets a black horse named “Wexit” and rides bare-chested with a Glock in his belt from Edmonton to Calgary prior to the Alberta referendum.
___________________

Meh, … he is just another Trumpian acolyte: a very sad, narcissistic sociopath, who do not give a damn about anything but corporate profits. Two-bit wealth-transfer hustler, … in fact!

Anyway, Kenney’s recent budget forecasts $6.5 billion in 2019-20 revenues from non-renewable resources, … like oil and bitumen. And only C$5.3 billion in 2020-21, … and then skyrocketing to, … to C$6.7 billion in 2021-22 and C$8.5 billion in 2022-23 ( … presumably the expanded TMX pipeline – by then – will be gushing bitumen to Burrard Inlet as well as C$s into Edmonton!)

Good luck with that!

Cheers,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#28 SharkTank on 10.31.19 at 6:07 pm

#20 Thedood on 10.31.19 at 5:35 pm

True. Canada’s future is like Finland. Pleasant enough to live there if you have no greater ambitions than just getting by and enjoy freezing your butt off 8 months of the year.

#29 Screwed Canadian Xillenial on 10.31.19 at 6:12 pm

Rents in Jane & Finch were aboot $1,100 in 2015.

Rents in Jane & Finch are now $1,650 + utilities in 2019.

Now that’s scary!

#30 Nonplused on 10.31.19 at 6:17 pm

I’m still convinced the whole US political spectacle is a made for TV movie made to up viewership for the “fake news” channels. Take the impeachment thing. Everyone knows it won’t pass the senate because there is no identifiable crime that’s been discovered. But it helps get CNN’s ratings up.

Or why else would they have elected a reality TV star as president? Or allowed the constant barrage of tweet storms? The fact is that there isn’t enough real news to keep the 24 hour feed rolling, so they have to make 90% of it up. So suddenly we have hours of postulating about a transcript that’s already been released and who tweeted what to who.

The impeachment vote was almost exactly along party lines, which was to be expected. It will be in the senate as well, so it will be defeated. The only thing that could change that is if the investigation actually does find some “high crime or misdemeanor” sufficient to sway the republicans to vote to impeach. So far all they’ve made public is that a couple NPC’s (non-player characters) found a conversation they heard third hand the president had disturbing. But we’ve got the transcript and it does not contain the alleged quid pro quo. So unless something else turns up, it’s dead in the water. But it makes good television, absolutely dividing the country into pro and anti Trump factions.

The networks intend, I think, to whip people on both sides into such a frenzy that violence breaks out and they have something to report on. It might just work.

The impeachment is a great prequel to 2020 as well. So far the democrats aren’t putting forward any candidates that middle america can stomach. The leaders (except Biden) are all crazy left leaning. Even most stanch blue democrats know that Warren and Sanders are proposing stuff that just can’t be done. So Trump The Impeached might win in a landslide and win back the house. Viewership will be through the roof with riots and looting the next morning. That is assuming the riots don’t start before the election, preventing anyone from getting to the polls.

#31 mj on 10.31.19 at 6:21 pm

Garth, the yield curve went negative. Doesn’t that signal a recession in 12 – 18 months?

#32 Leo on 10.31.19 at 6:22 pm

#13 Dave

We have had many conservative governments over the years, but they couldn’t get a pipeline built either.

#33 Mike on 10.31.19 at 6:26 pm

Nothing more than a Kangaroo court, the USA is quickly following Canadas slide into Banana republic territory. Donald Trump is the only person holding back the slide into delusion. But alas its only temporary eventually western civilization will forget its hard won lessons, neuter itself. China will take its top spot as hegemon.

#34 Wexit on 10.31.19 at 6:30 pm

Tricky treat – Trump 2020!

Can’t wait to taste the delicious tears of libs everywhere.

#35 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 10.31.19 at 6:38 pm

Peter McKay does not want to head up the Conservative Party unless Andrew Scheer quits. Peter McKay is an “old boy” from the “old boys’ club” as we say the wolf dressed in sheep’s clothing. McKay fits in with the “hairy chest set” but does not resonate with women. He is politically correct but so is Trudeau and Jag. Women expect more than politically correct. Scheer is not flawed which irks the sh*t out of left leaning media and this hi class blog.

#36 Dharma Bum on 10.31.19 at 6:40 pm

“Trump will look horrible as the impeachment hearings go public, but his voting base won’t care. He wins the election after the Democrats have vivisected themselves and picked the wrong person.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Right you are, oh wise one!

I’m currently driving through the vast midwest en route to Arizona.

The only visuals filling the endless prairie more than signs proclaiming that Jesus is real and will damn you to hell unless you believe, are banners the size of barn sides that say TRUMP!

Trump is more popular out here than Jesus.

Sorry, Beatles.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.19 at 6:47 pm

@#11 James
“Almost the entire state is arid and the fact that 40 million people live there doesn’t help matters.”
+++++

Apparently the lack of precipitation wont allow you even a glass of water to swallow a “chill pill”.
Yeesh.

#38 Trump 2020 on 10.31.19 at 6:47 pm

Ms Pelosi initially resisted launching an impeachment investigation because she thought that it had little chance of leading to a conviction in the Senate — where 20 Republicans would need to vote to convict Mr Trump — and could backfire by rallying the president’s supporters ahead of the November 2020 presidential election.

https://www.ft.com/content/d3fae4bc-fbee-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

#39 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 7:06 pm

#3 CJ on 10.31.19 at 3:27 pm
Garth, the California fires are due to forest mismanagement. You might want to do some research.
***************************
Actually you might want to loosen your MAGA hat and do a little yourself:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/politics/fact-check-trump-california-fire-tweet.html

#40 Dave on 10.31.19 at 7:10 pm

jason Kenny just gave his big business buddies a nice tax break, courtesy of the middle class in Alberta who are paying for it. Reduce money spent on health and education so big business gets more tax cuts. What a failure of a Premier. How can he still be holding office with this Kamikaze election stunt? Why isn’t he held to account? And why doesn’t have have the brains to realize its the world oil prices that are causing the downturn?

#41 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 7:17 pm

#31 mj on 10.31.19 at 6:21 pm
Garth, the yield curve went negative. Doesn’t that signal a recession in 12 – 18 months?
*************************************
It’s been right 7 out of 10 times, and the recession hit within 7-24 months.
Not as impressive an indicator as many believe.

Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/invertedyieldcurve.asp
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/next-recession-inverted-yield-curve-could-be-false-signal-now-2019-8-1028488094
“an inverted yield curve has predicted 10 of the last 7 recessions.”

#42 Dave on 10.31.19 at 7:17 pm

RE’ Thedood on 10.31.19 at 5:35 pm
Think its too late for that. Big Oil & Gas exodus out of Canada has been ongoing for a while now. All planned, paid for, and executed beautifully by American Oil & Gas. LOL! Canadians are a bunch of suckers, what can we say.

There is no way a Canadian government is going to bring in the kind of big investment needed to rebuild the industry within the next 10 or 20 years without giving away the farm. We’ve proven in multiple recent federal and provincial elections that we are a socialist country with a socialist agenda. Investors hate socialists. No money coming here anytime soon.”

I recommend you read up on the term socialism. It involves social ownership of the means of production–not privatizing Petrocan like the cons did. Socialism isn’t taking the Heritage Trust fund revenues and pisssing it away on failed projects, socialism isn’t shipping record amounts of oil to the states for 14 years and still running a deficit because the Cons charged super low rates on leased land and royalties. The price of oil and the incompetence of the Conservatives are the reason we are in this mess

#43 Flop... on 10.31.19 at 7:42 pm

#125 Fake Flop… on 10.31.19 at 11:50 am
ABOOM!!

$718,000 loss (+ expenses)

3312 WESTMOUNT ROAD, West Vancouver

Bought 2015 $3,618,000

Just sold for $2,900,000

2018 Assessed: $2,819,200
2017 Assessed: $3,160,200

https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1189723260306354176

////////////////////

I’m pretty sure I’ve told you this at least 4 or 5 times.

Get your own handle.

Hey Lurker, this guy is thick as molasses…

M45BC

#44 conan on 10.31.19 at 7:43 pm

I think the Democrats are gambling that the Senate will fail to impeach Trump, and look very bad in the electorate’s eyes, for doing so.

This is all about what happens in the 2020 election. The Dems want to take control of the Senate, the House, and the Presidency. They are thinking long term.

I still think Biden figures it out and becomes the Democratic candidate.

Anyone getting rain?

#45 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 7:44 pm

#41 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 7:17 pm
Grr “10 out of 7” I meant to type…

There’s too many false positives to rely on it.
i.e. 10 inverted yield curves have resulted in 7 recessions.

#46 Ustabe on 10.31.19 at 7:46 pm

…Scheer is not flawed which irks the sh*t out of left leaning media and this hi class blog.

“Not flawed” I suppose is a matter of opinion, not fact.
One man’s flaw is another man’s virtue these days.

Perhaps reading up on Opus Dei and further, what Kenny, Ford and Moe are attempting to do with education within their provinces might be in order

https://thewalrus.ca/the-rising-political-influence-of-the-catholic-right/

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm

“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.

As your highly-trained analysts know, the Russell is a more accurate gauge of the economy than the FAANG-heavy SP500.
As during Halloween, too much sugar (ie. low rates), will have dire consequences down the road.
———————————————

“Volatility (as measured by the Vix) is as interesting as Saskatchewan.”

Low Volatility indicates that most are complacent about the dangers in the markets. Didn’t work well last time (2006-2008).
Note the higher lows – it’s a bad omen. I don’t fear it – I’m preparing for it.
———————————————————–

“The interest rate cuts of the last few months are just now working their way through the US economy, while inflation, incomes and spending are as expected. In short, expect more record highs.”

“Record highs”? Only on weed (stocks).

Different opinions on this – but that’s the beauty of the Markets! If everyone agreed, there’d never be any opportunities for profit!

Feeling Bewitched tonight!

TCC

#48 Roial1 on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm

#20 Thedood on 10.31.19 at 5:35 pm

Investors hate socialists. No money coming here anytime soon.

Really???
I’ve just been to Norway and yu know what?
They got lots of investment. In fact the “Big Oil” are all over them with investment money. Now how about that!
BUT! Big Oil is playing with NORWEGIAN RULES.
They are now the richest country that is NOT a tax haven.

The reason that Alberta is getting the shaft is that they bent over and happily gave the “Big Oil” the farm.
Now they (Big Oil)want to keep on getting Gov. “FREE” money or they are running home laughing all the way to their banks.
Dirty oil will always cost too much to produce so why bother without subsidies? (which just went to Dallas)

#49 Dm2 on 10.31.19 at 7:53 pm

#42 Dave

Tell us more.

dm2

#50 AGuyInVancouver on 10.31.19 at 7:58 pm

#13 Dave on 10.31.19 at 4:19 pm
Encana (Energy Canada) is leaving Alberta and changing its name. There already has been a mass exit of capital from this province – now things are getting far far worse.
Is the only hope for Alberta is the next federal election where Conservatives win?
_ _ _
Maybe the only hope is for Alberta to realize we’re in the 21st Century and hitching your wagon to one resource is a dumb idea.

#51 yorkville renter on 10.31.19 at 7:58 pm

I cant believe how many people let Trump break the law because they value party over country… Obama was attacked as often and for WAY less meaningful infractions (beige suit! didnt salute a soldier!)… it’s like the Twilight Zone, but it’s real life.

#52 mj on 10.31.19 at 8:01 pm

#41 soggyshorts, thank you for the clarification

#53 will on 10.31.19 at 8:08 pm

#26 Renters Revenge said:

“Sad about Encana, though. I can understand why Albertans are angry and frustrated. Very disappointing performance by Trudeau.”

Why do you think this decision has anything to do with Trudeau?

#54 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 8:22 pm

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm
“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.
******************************
1 year ago today the S&P 500 was 10% lower, is this some Stan Brooks “Inflation is 10%” thing, or am I missing something?

#55 Ted fifty fore on 10.31.19 at 8:27 pm

“Mortgages are never again 3% or less”
All predicted before by your eminence “Garth”
and for a while it went higher, But then it went lower . Never say never. The future of interest rates will be a back and forth range of about 2% for as far out as anyone can predict. 20 years perhaps

#56 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 8:33 pm

#54 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 8:22 pm

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm
“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.
******************************
1 year ago today the S&P 500 was 10% lower, is this some Stan Brooks “Inflation is 10%” thing, or am I missing something?
++++++++++

Yup, you’re missing reading comprehension.

Read again and report back. Your “D” may be adjusted to a C+, maybe.

#57 Deplorable Dude on 10.31.19 at 8:45 pm

California….”we’ll charge you double other states for your gas to encourage you to use electric vehicles”

Also California….”now we turn off your power”….

Next couple of weeks is gonna be lit in Trumpland.

The IG report on FISA abuse is gonna drop any day….hopefully closely followed by indictments.

Micheal Flynn’s charges get tossed by his Judge due to the recent evidence provided by his new crack lawyer Sidney Powell, who dropped a bombshell last week proving the FBI lied under oath, and altered their 302 summaries to contradict what Flynn told them.

Ohh and the first medal of Honour will be given to a dog…there’s a photo for your page Garth!

#58 WHere's Our Money Going Trudeau (To France)? on 10.31.19 at 8:46 pm

I was checking out Credit Unions here in Bc for the last month and found most are now, or in the next year, converting to the CDIC (Canadian Deposit Insurance) instead of the provincial CUDIC (Credit Union Deposit Insurance). So only $100k covered instead of $1 MM/or more per account.
Does this allow them to get bailed in, is there something they know we don’t?
Doesn’t this stab the present members in the back? I think it does.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.19 at 8:55 pm

@#43 Flop
“Get your own handle.”
+++++

Not to worry flop.
In some cultures imitation is the height of flattery.

Someone else wishes they were you sooooo bad they have to pretend they ARE you.

OR they dont have the imaginative skills to invent their own name …

Either way.

Sad.
But I digress.

So Ponzie……
Whats your Halloween costume this year?
Albert Einstein?
So you can pretend you’re smart for one night a year?

#60 VicPaul on 10.31.19 at 9:14 pm

Garth says:
“He wins the election after the Democrats have vivisected themselves and picked the wrong person.”

*******

Kinda like the conservatives did this year.

#61 Barb on 10.31.19 at 9:32 pm

Encana’s exodus from Canada the first of many?

#62 Dumb Wealth on 10.31.19 at 10:01 pm

I became a much better investor once I realized how often I’m wrong about everything. Rates up? Rates down? Who the F knows! Plan accordingly.

#63 Re-Cowtown on 10.31.19 at 10:09 pm

Just reading an excellent book about America’s rise to superpower status. In one part reference is made to the 1956 Suez Canal War where the Brits and the French tried to re-establish old style exploitive colonial control over Egypt.

The U.S. withheld post war reconstruction $$$ from both the Brits and the French until they smartened up.

Quid pro quo? Absolutely. and anybody who thinks that governments (and parents of misbehaving children) haven’t done this from the beginning time is a full blown idiot.

If Trump ISN’T using quid pro quo he’s not doing his job.

BUT as Biden if finding out , if the withholding of US government funds is to ensure that your son keeps a cushy job and stays out of jail, then its just plain old corruption.

I see a big difference, but someone please explain where I’m wrong.

#64 Yuus bin Haad on 10.31.19 at 10:14 pm

You got that right; Trump is a peach

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.19 at 10:27 pm

So Flop…
Whats your Halloween costume this year?

#66 Lost...but not leased on 10.31.19 at 10:30 pm

From last post:

#96 fishman on 10.31.19 at 12:09 am
So what’s the richest man in Hong Kong doing about condo development. He knows a thing or two having built all the condos in Yaletown after Gracie “gifted” him the Expo lands. Well, 3 years ago he bought the 8 acres of Molson/Coors land south side of the Burrrard Bridge. Skitsalano, real nice. The boys figure 220-240 with 180 on the books. Anyways, 20-30 million an acre.
Last month he brought in 20 dump trucks of pea gravel, covered all the parking lots,(4-5 acres). Then 130 double dumpers of top soil. He’s planting veggies to feed the homeless. The plant is empty & looks like the movie guys using inside for movie shots.
He just gifted around $C 180 mil for affordable housing in Hong Kong. He’s planting root crops in Vancouver. Go figure. Maybe these millennials should shut down the airport or something instead of dropping their cash on a condo.

======================

Thanks for the info..

My understanding of WTF is going on is collateral scam via COV charter.

If one drives around Vancouver..and in areas whereby OCP designates high density…one will see…drum roll….”community gardens”….which effectively is a tax dodge.

These properties are holding properties, ironically by many of the deepest pocket developers.

In essence..their property taxes are based on quasi farms status…. and the property tax burden shifts onto the REST of the general public.

#67 Sunburned canuck on 10.31.19 at 10:32 pm

#30 response to Nonplused….

You are 1000 percent CORRECT.
Pinpoint accuracy on your viewpoint.
The Democraps have no idea yet about the granite-solid Trump base that is growing and will help him win in 2020. His pre-election fundraising has created a massive financial war chest bigger than any candidate in history, and GROWS BIGGER EVERY DAY because of the Democratic bullshit circus.
Don’t be surprised if you hear of Trump/ Republicans holding a One Billion Dollar election campaign fund late next year….

The left wing ideology is well past the thresh-hold of a lunatic asylum.

#68 Doug in London on 10.31.19 at 10:37 pm

The Bank of Canada looks like a genius for having remained calm and stoic when other CBs were spreading more stimulus than Beyoncé. There’s some deja vu here. During his time as finance minister Paul Martin said: I knew there was going to be a banking crisis and so did everyone else who has read history. I just wanted to be damn sure that when a crisis occurred it wouldn’t occur in Canada, and if it did internationally Canada’a banks wouldn’t be sideswiped by the contagion. Yes, history does repeat itself.

Meanwhile Peter MacKay shivs Scheer, takes over the Cons, and keeps Trudeau up at night with the thought of fighting Progressive Conservatives, instead of dinos.
————————————————————
If they Conservatives had Peter MacKay in the first place they probably would have won the election.

#69 Flop... on 10.31.19 at 10:45 pm

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.19 at 8:55 pm
@#43 Flop
“Get your own handle.”
+++++

Not to worry flop.
In some cultures imitation is the height of flattery.

Someone else wishes they were you sooooo bad they have to pretend they ARE you.

OR they dont have the imaginative skills to invent their own name …

Either way.

Sad.
But I digress.

So Ponzie……
Whats your Halloween costume this year?
Albert Einstein?
So you can pretend you’re smart for one night a year?

////////////////

Hey Crowdie,

I grabbed a blue shirt, yellow tie, glasses and knocked on doors calling people moisters.

Apparently not everyone knows who Garth Turner is in my neighborhood.

It was a pretty easy costume but I struggled with the itchy beard.

Should have just dressed up as Crocodile Dundee,perhaps?

Walking around the neighborhood knocking on people’s doors, demanding candy with an oversized knife.

What could go wrong…

M45BC

#70 Basil Fawlty on 10.31.19 at 11:08 pm

Some might consider it scary that the US Fed has initiated $60B per month in Non QE (George Orwell just passed wind). Plus, a daily REPO rollover of about $135B. Oh yeah, while real interest rates are effectively zero, if the stated inflation rate can be trusted.

If the economy is strong, why have these policies been initiated? Trick or Treat!

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.19 at 11:15 pm

https://theprovince.com/business/commercial-real-estate/vancouver-based-westbank-gets-green-light-for-450-million-seattle-luxury-tower/wcm/dd7eb8ca-fd70-4053-9d2c-bffd0e6e1f9e
———-
Vancouver developers are beating the Yanks to the punch

#72 Vision on 11.01.19 at 12:00 am

Screwed Canadian Xillenial on 10.31.19 at 6:12 pm
Rents in Jane & Finch were aboot $1,100 in 2015.
Rents in Jane & Finch are now $1,650 + utilities in 2019.
Now that’s scary!
———————
You are not kidding scary,.
Rough area and quite pricey

#73 WUL on 11.01.19 at 12:10 am

It is late in Fort McMurray as I send this dispatch.

Keystone Pipeline has a rupture and spill in North Dakota. Not a peep in the Calgary Herald about the incident.

Yet, a big lament about Encana ditching this great Dominion of Canada and a triumphant article about a Michigan Court decision allowing Enbridge to continue operating its 66 year old pipeline.

Is it any wonder I don’t read the news anymore?

Propaganda.

I only come to this wholly pathetic blog to know whasup.

Sail on Garth.

#74 Jenny Wang on 11.01.19 at 1:49 am

Trudeau kills yet another once proud and expanding Canadian company as Citadel moves all it’s jobs, money, investment, taxes, wages, south. Just so you know, the jobs don’t go south, the NAFTA doesn’t consider Canadian expertise as irreplaceable. These companies lay off all the Canadians, except a few managers, and replace them with happy Americans. It really means more bankruptcies, divorces , kids who won’t afford hockey and big fights between parents on Christmas morning because the tree is bare. Gerry Butts just got a bonus, Omar Khadr got $10,000,000, will they be donating to a hungry family in Alberta this Christmas?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/citadel-drilling-caodc-oilpatch-1.5339892

Billions have fled, Trudeau’s borrowing to make it look like it’s OK, it’s not. Liberals say green jobs will replace the jobs list, bullshit. Nailing solar panels onto suburban rooftops are minimum wage jobs. Most oil workers were easily grossing two hundred thousand.

This makes Canada a minimum wage, low expertise economy. Those income taxes and increased taxes on assets and savings will kick in real soon. The “Woke and Shaming” economy of brain dead millenials will revolve around dollar store and dumpster diving. Good decision making Canada. You voted for your own swan song. “Highway to Hell”.

#75 SoggyShorts on 11.01.19 at 3:10 am

#56 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 8:33 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 8:22 pm

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm
“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.
******************************
1 year ago today the S&P 500 was 10% lower, is this some Stan Brooks “Inflation is 10%” thing, or am I missing something?
++++++++++

Yup, you’re missing reading comprehension.

Read again and report back. Your “D” may be adjusted to a C+, maybe.
*******************
Alright, I looked back and the only thing I can figure is that you meant the end of Q3 which is really close to the start of Q4 so when I hit the 1-year tab and looked at Oct vs Oct I got a different result than when you looked at Sept vs Oct.

BTW the “D” here should be for you as in “You don’t need to be a Dick when someone asks for clarification.”

#76 crazyfox on 11.01.19 at 3:33 am

Trump will look horrible as the impeachment hearings go public, but his voting base won’t care. The president will do something radical in 2020, with likely candidates being (a) an abrupt end to the China trade war, igniting markets or (b) a broad-based personal tax cut, igniting markets. – Garth

Why not add (c) u.S. war with Iran.

Unbeknownst to most, the developed world is in a natural gas slump in prices due to Iran pumping record production of natural gas due to forced shut in oil production from the Trump administration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves

Qatar is pumping as fast as they can because the world’s largest gas field is under Iran/Qatar:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_fields

Since their markets are landlocked, Iran and Qatar are locked in a race to the bottom undercutting Russian gas prices to China and beyond. How does a U.S. war with Iran help the U.S.? Higher oil prices for one. Currently, the U.S. is producing around 14 million bpd of oil surpassing Saudi Arabia as the world’s #1 producer:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

This record oil production has come from mostly shale production with a major byproduct of natural gas that has crushed gas markets in North America (scroll down to max chart):

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/ng%3Anmx

What is it… anything $2.40 or below is 80% below the cost of new production? Must suck if your an Albertan separatist, too dumb to figure out separation won’t save you, like, the last thing investors like is political instability among other silly little things like overdeveloped resource production and commodity prices below the value of cost of production… but we can’t fix stupid now, can we.

For the second year in a row now, the U.S. has become a net exporter of natural gas through liquid nat gas exports. Russia is currently building an undersea pipeline to feed Europe which, aside from the Trump administration, the U.S. doesn’t like because it gives Russia leverage over Europe through a commodity it’s dependent on but what stands in Russia’s way is cheap Iranian gas and since Trump is Russia friendly…

Well, there’s your motive. The U.S. benefits from higher oil prices boosting the petrol dollar and the Russia benefits from higher gas prices and leverage over Europe. If Putin had his way, he would use industrial sabotage to destroy nat gas production from this field in particular:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pars/North_Dome_Gas-Condensate_field

But you know, Putin can’t do it and why does he need to when he’s got his favorite puppet Trump there to do it for him at his command? A desperate president facing impeachment that Republican senators can prevent until the 2020 election but by that time, the U.S. is already at war with Iran and Americans sure do love a war time president. Will 2020 electronic voting machines be hacked in favor of personality disordered Trump? How much farther can it go. So, the market bets on Trump. Or if Trump is impeached first, a Republican president in 2024. Just business, nothing personal.

Meanwhile, in the day of a life, Encana chases U.S. oil shale climate change be damned because they see it coming and move their HQ to the U.S. because of cheaper taxes. Why not. And why not tell media its because Canada is no longer a good investment opportunity because… of lower nat gas prices? Over exploitation and over development? No, lets not tell media that. It’s lack of coastal pipelines, yah, that’s it, even though there’s no money in gas now domestic or overseas, you know, barring war and the U.S. is jerking our chain with the promise of Keystone pipelines that never get built so they can buy our oil for dimes on the dollar. Young Trudeau should have had that pipeline built already, he’s owned it since last year. His name sucks out west, sure, blame him.

Politicize it for that corporate tax cut without really saying it, Encana can do that. Maybe Canada can run 5% of GDP deficits like the Trump administration is now equivalent to $90 billion dollar federal deficits here so Encana can get what it wants… hypothetically, at least as a shareholder, like what do they have to lose? They are American now. Just another day in the way of the world.

#77 Cdn expat on 11.01.19 at 3:46 am

“Jason Kenney loses 25 pounds, gets a black horse named “Wexit” and rides bare-chested with a Glock in his belt from Edmonton to Calgary prior to the Alberta referendum.“

You are gosh darn hilarious Garth

#78 Kelly on 11.01.19 at 4:48 am

Its tough to read tonight’s blog.
So misguided in so many places.
TDS rules in so many places.
The future looks bleak on several fronts.
At least we can sleep knowing T2 and Gerald Butts will use our hard earned after tax money to change the world weather so we don’t all die shortly.
So misguided.

#79 Stan Brooks on 11.01.19 at 5:33 am

#72 Vision on 11.01.19 at 12:00 am
Screwed Canadian Xillenial on 10.31.19 at 6:12 pm
Rents in Jane & Finch were aboot $1,100 in 2015.
Rents in Jane & Finch are now $1,650 + utilities in 2019.
Now that’s scary!
———————
You are not kidding scary,.
Rough area and quite pricey

This is direct result from the policies of the ‘geniuses’ at BoC and CHMC.

And ‘inflation’ is 1 %, right. More like 10 % based on the above numbers.

Jane and Finch… It seems very much in demand area in GTA…
Wait when the rents there double from here in the next 4-5 years.

Rates are going down, not up.

#80 Fabio on 11.01.19 at 6:49 am

Currently in mainland China.
Hong Kong officially in a recession. China manufacturing, 8 month straight decline. Not getting better either.

I’m Canadian and can’t really get things done because these guys really dislike the Trudeau government. I’m having to remind them of Dr. Bethune just to get them to listen to me. Not good.

Currently they are HEAVILY investing (and Russia) in Africa. Canada, I’m afraid, is not even on their radar.
Hopefully this new government make up does something positive in China trade.

As for oil and the middle east here’s a clip I watched just the other day. Says the truth of why things are happening there.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-10-30/Expert-Fight-against-terrorism-isn-t-a-short-journey-Ldw2Mghgcw/index.html

In the end it foreign interest screwing things up not terrorists.

#81 akashic record on 11.01.19 at 7:15 am

#72 Vision on 11.01.19 at 12:00 am

Screwed Canadian Xillenial on 10.31.19 at 6:12 pm
Rents in Jane & Finch were aboot $1,100 in 2015.
Rents in Jane & Finch are now $1,650 + utilities in 2019.
Now that’s scary!
———————
You are not kidding scary,.
Rough area and quite pricey

Glock included in utilities? Or a black horse with no name?

#82 the Jaguar on 11.01.19 at 7:25 am

@ #96 fishman on 10.31.19 at 12:09 am

Fishman, I am losing sleep trying to figure out what your post implied:
“Last month he brought in 20 dump trucks of pea gravel, covered all the parking lots,(4-5 acres). Then 130 double dumpers of top soil. He’s planting veggies to feed the homeless. The plant is empty & looks like the movie guys using inside for movie shots.
He just gifted around $C 180 mil for affordable housing in Hong Kong. He’s planting root crops in Vancouver. Go figure. ”

Do you think it means he figures the condo market is overbuilt and best to just sit on the land for the moment until the math looks better, or is it a tale of a multi billionaire becoming truly philanthropic and caring about poor people?
What is the moral of this story?

#83 Tater on 11.01.19 at 7:47 am

#6 Westcdn on 10.31.19 at 3:41 pm
I have being trying my hand at option trading.

————————————————-

You aren’t trading options. You’re making a highly leveraged directional bet that has a limited lifespan. And if you don’t understand why that is, you shouldn’t be making those bets.

#84 MF on 11.01.19 at 7:56 am

80 Fabio on 11.01.19 at 6:49

Lol just lol.

Why do you think China would invest in a group of underdeveloped countries over developed ones?

MF

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.19 at 8:14 am

@#65 Crowdedelevatorfartz

Ahahahahha.
That took about 10 seconds.
Sorry Flop. Wasnt me.

As I said before “imitation is the best form of flattery” or… in my case…. flatulence.

Keep imitating me “fartz”.
I’ll take a coffee break.
Just remember .
You will be loathed by one and all equally…

Enjoy!
:)

#86 MF on 11.01.19 at 8:14 am

#80 Fabio on 11.01.19 at 6:49 am

And that article you posted might the most dumbed down simplistic take on the Mid East I’ve ever read.

Yeah the problem is that “governments won’t talk to each other”.

How about religion’s impact? I would argue that’s the number one reason and it wasn’t even mentioned.

The “foreign influence” you talked about? Also absent.

Did you read that article before you posted? Probably not. Maybe that’s why no one will do business with you..

MF

#87 David McDonald on 11.01.19 at 8:15 am

Garth, you seem to accept as inevitable that Trump will win in 2020. That really scares me since you are right so often. I shudder to think about the state of US after four more years of Trump.

#88 Tater on 11.01.19 at 8:25 am

#56 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 8:33 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 8:22 pm

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm
“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.
******************************
1 year ago today the S&P 500 was 10% lower, is this some Stan Brooks “Inflation is 10%” thing, or am I missing something?
++++++++++

Yup, you’re missing reading comprehension.

Read again and report back. Your “D” may be adjusted to a C+, maybe.
———————————————————-

And you’re cherry picking to make a very weak point.

#89 James on 11.01.19 at 9:22 am

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.19 at 6:47 pm

@#11 James
“Almost the entire state is arid and the fact that 40 million people live there doesn’t help matters.”
+++++

Apparently the lack of precipitation wont allow you even a glass of water to swallow a “chill pill”.
Yeesh.
________________________________________
Hard to chill seeing that when I lived there we experienced a couple of wildfires in the hills. The place is nearly a desert. Try chilling when you have to be evacuated from your domicile with a small child in the early morning!

#90 Stan Brooks on 11.01.19 at 9:41 am

Yes, it could be/and is fast becoming much worse.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-becoming-dirty-word-oil-130838529.html

(Bloomberg) — Canada’s beleaguered energy sector suffered another morale blow as Encana Corp. — one of its marquee companies that was born out of the 19th-century railway boom — announced plans to move its headquarters to the U.S. and drop the link to Canada from its name.

“Canada is no longer viewed as a world-class destination for capital, both generally and specifically for oil and gas,” Mac Van Wielingen, founder and partner of ARC Financial Corp., a Calgary-based private equity firm focused on the Canadian energy industry, said in an interview. “There’s a whole combination of factors at work that are really working against Canada.”

But not to worry.

We have T2, the french villa guy and can always sell some housing to the uber rich of the world/all of who would like to come and live in GTA.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/mass-stabbing-multiple-shootings-mark-104108527.html

#91 Candice Noonan on 11.01.19 at 9:59 am

Norway is the supposedly strong benchmark you are going to use. I never hear Garth mentioning Norway as the place to never bet against. It is the U.S.A. not Norway. Come on you got to give a better example than that.

#92 Stan Brooks on 11.01.19 at 10:12 am

#84 MF on 11.01.19 at 7:56 am
80 Fabio on 11.01.19 at 6:49

Lol just lol.

Why do you think China would invest in a group of underdeveloped countries over developed ones?

MF

Your understanding of ‘developed’ and ‘developing’ countries is far from the reality of the world today.
Forget what you are told at school or what the ‘public opinion’ indoctrinates.

There are already many places with better services, better weather, better standard of living and better prospects including economic growth and that are much cheaper.

You can’t compete with the progress with miserable and ignorant, underpaid debt slaves.

You can try but will fail. Open your eyes/and smell the roses as Ryan Lewenza said.

Cheers,

#93 MF on 11.01.19 at 10:41 am

#74 Jenny Wang on 11.01.19 at 1:49

Lol great gordonski is that you?

How are the millennials down south different than us? Hint: they are worse. The Democrats are worse than our libs too.

I know you are a troll but meh.

MF

#94 Keyboard Smasher on 11.01.19 at 10:52 am

@76 crazyfox

>But you know, Putin can’t do it and why does he need to when he’s got his favorite puppet Trump there to do it for him at his command?

Wow, you’re dumb.

Not even the people who devised this contrived hoax believe this themselves. It was just a means of sabotaging the civilian government under Trump.

#95 Remembrancer on 11.01.19 at 11:01 am

#84 MF on 11.01.19 at 7:56 am
80 Fabio on 11.01.19 at 6:49

Lol just lol.

Why do you think China would invest in a group of underdeveloped countries over developed ones?

MF
———————————————-
MF, you should broaden your world view a bit or learn mandarin – while the “news” source is the PRC version of Russia’s RT, the reason China is investing in what you call underdeveloped countries is that is where the resources and influence is to be gained.

For instance, a central strategy idea behind One Belt – One Road is to establish infrastructure and a firm political/economic footprint moving from a mostly inward looking / protecting borders hydraulic empire to one projecting outwards.

And say what you will, but Africa is once of the next big things as far as resource development goes and China / Russia are looking to cash in, especially while their main rival is staggering geopolitically speaking with no coherent foreign policy that lasts longer than a tweet; Putin an Xi aren’t worried what Sean f’ing Hannity says for instance except where it helps them sow discord…

As for the Mideast, it has always been about religion, land and trade for the locals and for foreign empires since the 19th century oil, before that largely religion and trade as well…

#96 the ryguy on 11.01.19 at 11:17 am

#87 David McDonald on 11.01.19 at 8:15 am
I shudder to think about the state of US after four more years of Trump.
———————————————————–
Do ya Dave? Do you really shudder? Give me a reason you are scared of the big orange boogie man?

Is it the record high employment across all genders/races/demographics? Is it the trying to end decade(s) old wars? Securing fair trade deals? Taking out terrorists? Fighting back against corruption? Is it the tax cuts?

What is it baby Dave? You are completely brainwashed by the media. It was silly but understandable in year 1. We are almost through 3 years now..if you haven’t woken up I really don’t think there is hope for you. Just keep clutching those pearls every time CNN tells you to.

#97 -=jwk=- on 11.01.19 at 11:44 am

##21 BOB

#11 James

Sure, they love supporting the “orange buffoon”. James, TDS is real. Seek Help.

https://lhc.ca.gov/report/fire-mountain-rethinking-forest-management-sierra-nevada

Quote: Complicating the management problem is the fact that the State of California owns very few of the forests within its borders – most are owned by the federal government or private landowners.

Why aren’t the feds managing their land? Oh, never mind, nothing to see here…

#98 IHCTD9 on 11.01.19 at 1:00 pm

#95 Remembrancer on 11.01.19 at 11:01 am

And say what you will, but Africa is once of the next big things as far as resource development goes and China / Russia are looking to cash in, especially while their main rival is staggering geopolitically speaking with no coherent foreign policy that lasts longer than a tweet…
___

Well, Africa has always been there and has been available for resource development. There are a few reasons why the West is not in there like a dirty sock.

One of the biggest hold ups is that US oil development has always come with strings attached. Political, humanitarian, and civil rights strings. These are tough ones for the corrupt dictators running these countries to swallow.

China does business differently: “here’s what we want, here’s what we’re willing to do to get it, nothing else matters”. This is music in the ears of the Mugabe’s of Africa. Plus you can get a deal done is a week, compared to the years it took with the US.

I expect the Dictators of Africa will do very well making deals with China – but I doubt a single African outside these folks will benefit much at all.

#99 RWZM on 11.01.19 at 1:20 pm

“Rising rates bring a crisis to Ottawa”

This part I just don’t get. Why would it change anything? If it goes up, it’ll go back up to where it was in the recent past (which is very low). And the Fed doesn’t seem to think that it’s going up in the long term; they seem to think things are mostly fine.

The chart of interest rates looks like the chart of a stock that you shouldn’t have invested in. It seems like once you hit bottom, you never get out. And if you look at the chart since 1790 it still looks like a secular path to zero with a big “bubble” event in the recent past.

#100 Jenny Wang on 11.01.19 at 1:20 pm

DELETED

#101 jess on 11.01.19 at 1:26 pm

government rule changes go back and forth through time – depends on the time

https://www.alberta.ca/alberta-energy-history-up-to-1999.aspx
http://history.alberta.ca/energyheritage/bitumount/Default.aspx

1933 -The falling price of milk affects the profitability and viability of milk producers in Alberta. To provide price stability, the Government of Alberta declares milk a public utility. The Public Utilities Commission (renamed the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) in 2008) begins setting the minimum price that milk producers receive (the wholesale price). The commission is also put in charge of licensing and regulating milk producers and distributors. In 1969, the Government of Alberta creates the Alberta Milk Control Board. While the AUC’s jurisdiction over the regulation of milk production is surrendered to the board, it continues to set minimum wholesale prices. In 1991 the Government of Alberta deregulates the minimum retail price of milk.

1950 – Detonation of an underground atomic explosive device is proposed to melt Athabasca oil sands bitumen to aid commercial development. Federal government denies approval.

1961- National oil policy directs that all refineries west of the Ottawa Valley must use higher-priced crude from western Canada.
1973- Arab oil embargo triggers first global energy crisis. The Alberta Energy Company Ltd. is created to initiate a capital investment program and lessen dependence on foreign oil. It would later merge with PanCanadian Energy Corporation to create Encana.

1973- Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau decrees ‘made-in-Canada’ crude oil prices.
1973-The Alberta Petroleum Marketing Act creates the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC).

1974- The Natural Gas Price Protection Plan is introduced. It is aimed at sheltering Alberta consumers from increasing world market prices for natural gas. In 2009 it was replaced by the Natural Gas Price Protection Act.

1982-1986 – Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) attempts to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts meet with repeated failure as various OPEC members produce beyond their quotas. During most of this period, Saudi Arabia acts as the swing producer, cutting its production in an attempt to stem the free fall in prices. In August 1985, the Saudis link their oil price to the spot market for crude. By early 1986, they increase production from 2 MMBPD to 5 MMBPD. Crude oil prices plummet below $10 per barrel by mid-1986. Despite the fall in prices, Saudi revenue remains about the same with higher volumes compensating for lower prices. Source: West Texas Research Group

1984-1985 -The Progressive Conservative government under Prime Minister Brian Mulroney replaces the Liberal government in 1984. The new government signs the Western Energy Accord in 1985, eliminating the National Energy Program.

1985- The federal government deregulates oil prices and opens Canada’s borders to imports and exports.

1985 -Oil royalty holiday programs are introduced to reward successful explorers. Previous grant-oriented programs only favoured activity…..
@https://www.alberta.ca/alberta-energy-history-up-to-1999.aspx

#102 jess on 11.01.19 at 1:31 pm

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/encana

Are the “dictators” of africa listening to the Catholic bishops of Kenya who are praying and calling on the higher power to rid them of corruption.

#103 Nelson Hu on 11.01.19 at 1:51 pm

“All the 1%ers riot, but nobody notices.”

Isn’t it better than the 99% riot due to rising taxes?

#104 tccontrarian on 11.01.19 at 1:55 pm

OK Soggyshorts (must be uncomfortable – perhaps explains why you don’t seem to have a sense of humour, and didn’t appreciate the tongue-in-cheek “D” to “C+” thingy…)

Anyway, I’ll spell it out for you. I’m making 2 separate statements:

1. the SP500 is at ‘record levels’ but only just, if inflation is accounted for. Basically ‘flat’ since 2018 Q3
2. the Russell 2000 is DOWN ~10% during the same timeframe.

Main point is that the Russell 2000 is a more meaningful index when trying to gauge the ‘health’ of the economy.
The SP500 is popular but less meaningful – especially as it’s dominated by a few extremely populart companies (the FAANGs).

Now… I made another post with a link to an article with a bearish perspective – but it didn’t get past the Gatekeepers here. I guess one is only allowed to post bullish articles here – unless it’s bearish on real estate, I guess. Or, maybe it’s still being screened for ‘appropriateness’? We’ll see…

TCC

#105 Doug in London on 11.01.19 at 2:23 pm

@the ryguy, post #96:
So what is it you ask? How about the deficits and debt which has exploded financing those big tax cuts? It might be understandable if they resulted in many jobs being created but most has gone to share buybacks and increased dividends. I’m not even American and I’ve benefited more from these tax cuts than a lot of Americans. Who’s going to pay for all this debt, especially if a recession comes along and increases that debt even more? The present path here is clearly no more sustainable than the sub prime mortgage fiasco was last decade.

How about the costs from extreme weather events that will only get worse from climate change? While the bumbling fool in the White House denies its existence, a lot of people higher up in the U.S. military do see it coming and are quite concerned. I know who I would rather listen to.

One thing I’ve learned is you need to be self reliant and less reliant of the fools in charge who only care about getting the vote and nothing else. I’m busy figuring out how to protect myself when the inevitable consequences come. For starters, I’m completely avoiding investing in insurance companies.

#106 Fire sale continues........ on 11.01.19 at 2:27 pm

Poof…. there goes another one… as the liberals slowly grind us into pulp with their policies……..

https://calgaryherald.com/commodities/energy/pengrowth-energy-to-be-acquired-by-cona-resources-for-740-million/wcm/dd17ad15-8949-4ac8-b648-0b76ae80aaaa

#107 SimplyPut7 on 11.01.19 at 2:37 pm

#90 Stan Brooks on 11.01.19 at 9:41 am

There are 6.8 million people in the greater Toronto area.

Only 36 homicides were gang-related in 2018.

The media likes to keep people focused on shootings and stabbings so people will forget they were the ones that convinced them to buy that investment condo that will be completed and need a hefty mortgage next year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/organized-crime-statistics-1.5226940

#108 Remembrancer on 11.01.19 at 2:58 pm

True sustainability, ultimately can’t be trucked or piped in, it needs to be built for from the bottom up…

This Op Ed piece… https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/opinion/california-fires.html

works so much better with a soundtrack playing at the same time…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-aK6JnyFmk

#109 tccontrarian on 11.01.19 at 3:14 pm

#88 Tater on 11.01.19 at 8:25 am

#56 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 8:33 pm
#54 SoggyShorts on 10.31.19 at 8:22 pm

#47 tccontrarian on 10.31.19 at 7:49 pm
“Stock markets have been in record territory.” – Garth

SP500 is basically flat (inflation adjusted), since 2018 Q3
Russell 2000 is down -10%, same time frame.
******************************
1 year ago today the S&P 500 was 10% lower, is this some Stan Brooks “Inflation is 10%” thing, or am I missing something?
++++++++++

Yup, you’re missing reading comprehension.

Read again and report back. Your “D” may be adjusted to a C+, maybe.
———————————————————-

And you’re cherry picking to make a very weak point

/ / / /

Me? Explain what am I ‘cherry picking’?
And why is my point ‘weak’?

thx

#110 BobC on 11.01.19 at 3:17 pm

#97 =Jwk=

Liberal tree huggers and environmental wacko’s have filed lawsuit after lawsuit to stop federal, state and even loggers from properly managing the forest. Been going on for years before Trump. They wanted to save the trees and clean the air. Haha how is that working out.
But to please you guys let’s just say Trump sneaks in and sets the fires himself.

https://www.libertyheadlines.com/environmentalists-lawsuits-to-stop-forest-thinning-the-main-cause-of-killer-wildfires/

#111 MF on 11.01.19 at 3:23 pm

95 Remembrancer on 11.01.19 at 11

No I get it. I was being sarcastic.

China is a dictatorship. Plain and simple. Of course they are power hungry. Of course they would look to Africa to exploit them.

Human rights? Yeah right.

I see IH already beat me to the punch.

MF

#112 MF on 11.01.19 at 3:27 pm

#92 Stan Brooks on 11.01.19 at 10:12 am

I was Sarcastic but whatever.

Mankind is a complete joke. Most of not all countries are crap.

Nice weather isn’t enough when there is rampant corruption, massive inequalities, crime or whatever.

Name me some countries you speak of.

I’m all ears Stan.

MF

#113 the ryguy on 11.01.19 at 4:07 pm

#105 Doug in London on 11.01.19 at 2:23 pm
—————————————————-

I can’t deal with you climate freaks. 20 years ago Mr Gore warned us of all sorts of cataclysms..zero have born out. ZERO!!

The Obamas just bought a massive $15M mansion on the oceanfront in Marthas vineyard. You really think Obama is worried? You people are nuts…NOTHING your side has predicted has happened. I can’t respect people that are constantly wrong and never admit to it. “Cooling, warming, cooling, warming,…ehhh you know what, lets just call it ‘change’ and that way we’re always right.” Get a grip Doug..you’ve been lied to.

#114 Sail Away on 11.01.19 at 6:36 pm

#105 Doug in London on 11.01.19 at 2:23 pm

One thing I’ve learned is you need to be self reliant and less reliant of the fools in charge who only care about getting the vote and nothing else. I’m busy figuring out how to protect myself when the inevitable consequences come. For starters, I’m completely avoiding investing in insurance companies.

———————————-

Climate change is purely speculative. Nobody knows what, if anything, will happen. Never exit an asset class. You know who will never exit insurance? Ever hear of Warren Buffett and Prem Watsa?

#115 Doug in London on 11.01.19 at 10:48 pm

the ryguy
You would do well to stop getting your”facts” from tabloid papers like the National Enquirer and instead pay attention to what scientists who have credentials and have been following this issue for years have to say about human made climate change. By the way, do you believe the Earth is flat, only 6000 years old, and at the centre of the planetary system? Wow, I’m eagerly waiting for the opportunity to sell you some dirt cheap Nortel shares for only $20,000 each and that’s U.S. Dollars not Canadian.

#116 Doug in London on 11.01.19 at 10:53 pm

@Sail Away:
Climate change is purely speculative? Where do you get a dumb idea like that? It’s been going on since the beginning of the earth some 4.5 billion years ago and has been due to a multitude of factors. However, for at least 100 years the DOMINANT factor has been human made. Can anyone here explain how the amount of C02 in the atmosphere and average temperature of the earth have both gone up sharply during that period?

#117 Fabio on 11.02.19 at 6:02 am

#86 MF

Did you read that article before you posted? Probably not. Maybe that’s why no one will do business with you..

MF

Lol. Yes I did troll. Shabi. Wanted to show the video. Media is controlled everywhere, it is what it is. Best I could find at the moment. Don’t know what it has to do with me doing business in China.

Been doing business in China for 25 years. I think I know what I’m doing. Signed a fair deal today for both sides. I can come home next week. Can’t wait to eat pizza.

#118 Jager on 11.02.19 at 9:05 am

“None spoke about what binds us.”

What exactly binds Canada in 2019 and moving forward?

Watch and see what happens in the inevitable next phase of economic slow down.

P.S.
All Canadian politicians and their media parrots have left is anti-Trump rhetoric bordering on derangement to cover up for the countries failings.