The big miss

As predicted here, Mad Max is gone. Liz May’s also toast – a fact she acknowledged a couple of days ago. Now more doubts are being raised about young Andrew Scheer, since the Libs managed to pummel him with his own social conservative principles. Despite Lavalin, Jody, India, deficits, ethics and blackface, Trudeau retained government even when losing the popular vote. The country is polarized. Wexit happened. More separatists sit in Parliament.

And what about the election’s fallout on personal finances?

More on that in the weeks ahead when we discern if T2 will be cowtowing to the Dippers, running up the deficit and trying to pay for it with a higher capital gains tax plus more burden on corps. In the meantime, we’re already seeing what the vote did to real estate.

Sales and prices in most markets plumped during a campaign in which every major party promised to shower buyers and owners with goodies. Even the Tories – supposedly the party of fiscal restraint and market forces – suggested opening the borrowing floodgates by gutting the stress test and bringing back 30-year mortgages. What a disaster that might have been.

Well, what now?

We know the Libs will be pushing ahead with the enhanced shared-equity mortgage, letting first-timers buy digs worth up to $800,000 in the Bubble Cities, ensuring the bubbles remain. It’s hard to know how many moisters will plug into this, but the very notion the government will suck off up to 10% of a mortgage has had an impact. More showings mean more offers, more demand and price pressure. That’s just the way things work.

The Libs have already increased the borrowing limit on the Home Buyers Plan, letting young couples raid their RRSPs of $70,000 for a downpayment, with no tax consequences. There’s more money now for retrofitting homes, and the new national tax on non-Canadian buyers – the first time the feds have directly taxed real estate ownership. Let’s not forget the T2 government is a minority and will need the support of the BQ or (more likely) NDP to pass a budget. Such propping-up might come with strings, such as enacting Dipper policies to return 30-year mortgages or double the tax credit for new buyers.

It all adds up. Even in an uncertain world of Trump, Brexit, Syria and trade wars, this stuff is having an impact. You could see that this week in the latest projections by CMHC, Canada’s federal government housing cabal. These guys predict Toronto prices, for example, will be 10.5% higher (average price hitting just under $1 million) in 24 months.

This is, of course, a pox. It’s triple the inflation rate and double wage growth. This would push affordability down, even if mortgage rates stay at current depressed levels. Leverage increases, debt rises and personal finances become more precarious. If there is a recession two or three years out, a lot of people may be sorry they embraced loans to buy a peak asset.

The feds say prices will roar thanks to increasing employment and population growth, both from immigration and internal migration. At the epicentre, at least in the GTA, will be condos.

States CMHC: ““We are already seeing demand for the more affordable types of homes like condo apartments and townhouses. That’s an area that has really picked up steam. I don’t think demand ever dissipated in Toronto but it has sort of shifted from the singles to the condos. The sales-to-listings ratio in condos is in what we call the sellers’ territory nearing 70 per cent so there’s a little heat in that market. That’s where properties aren’t staying long in the market. There’s rapid price growth in that area.”

Fine. We get it. The kids can’t afford singles and drift to condos. Demand rises. Prices grow. Political pressure to ‘do something’ about unaffordable real estate and the high rents it begets grows. Leaders make stupid promises. They get elected. Incentives follow. More demand. Prices rise. And here we are.

So once again competition for condos is heating up. It’s entirely possible in 2020 we could see 2016 prices exceeded – even with the stress test in place and insured mortgages halted at 25 years.

Is this a permanent condition? Will any corrections going forward be like the one just ended – short?

I doubt it. But who knows? When governments keep doing silly-ass things like giving buyers a 25-year holiday from part of their mortgage payments or letting them divert pension money to buy inflated houses how can anyone be certain what lies ahead? We know personal finances suck. We know debt’s at an historic crest. We know the savings rate has crashed. We know financial illiteracy abounds and that retirement savings are melting. We know the Mills are a demographic bubble.

All that spells risk. You can embrace it or not. But if real estate hits a new high next year, thanks to artificial stimulus, make damn sure you’re buying on a solid foundation. Don’t shovel all your net worth into a condo. At a minimum, fill that TFSA and stay invested. Lock in your mortgage rate. Do the rent/buy math. Don’t count on steady appreciation, remember to price in closing costs and be aware of the rising burden of ownership. Know the Rule of 90.

Best guidance: never buy a one-bedroom condo if you’re in a relationship. Bad move. Like voting, apparently.

 

113 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.19 at 4:28 pm

Dont buy a condo period.

Dealing with crappy construction.
Strata Council Nazi’s
Rising contingency fees.
Amenities you never use.
Elevator maintenance….
Ugh.
Run screaming in the other direction.

#2 theoryAndPractice on 10.25.19 at 4:28 pm

The feds say prices will roar thanks to increasing employment and population growth, both from immigration and internal migration. At the epicentre, at least in the GTA, will be condos.-GT

Perhaps, there are a lot of candidates to warm up the housing markets. Both CMHC and Feds know it !

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-004-m/75-004-m2019003-eng.htm

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190226/t002b-eng.htm

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001201

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Canada_by_median_household_income

https://www.livingin-canada.com/work-salaries-wages-canada.html

#3 Boombust on 10.25.19 at 4:41 pm

That CMHC report is pure nonsense; all designed to inspire FOMO-buying.

No mention of a looming recession, the fact the bubble cities have reached nowhere near “bottom” yet, huge debt loads…the whole mix.

I’m surprised you would even cite this as a credible report, Garth. What I want to know is what has changed since they issued their 2018 report which has n fact, been happening and will continue to happen. In that report, they said 2019-20 would see slower price growth and sales.

You sure like to flip flop, Garth.

Not my flip nor flop. I quoted the feds – who just finished a house-pumping campaign. Don’t blame me. – Garth

#4 Mr Fundamental on 10.25.19 at 4:44 pm

Words of wisdom from Garth!
“Don’t shovel all your net worth into a condo. At a minimum, fill that TFSA and stay invested.”

#5 Ian on 10.25.19 at 4:50 pm

I understand why the Banks don’t include a minimum savings rate in their mortgage affordability calculator. However, the CMHC calculator should offer something stating a minimum savings rate as part of an affordability calculation. Not that you actually have to save it, but the Government agency shouldn’t allow you to have an insured mortgage knowing you are not going to save a dollar for retirement on initial purchase.

#6 MF on 10.25.19 at 4:51 pm

This was all expected.

Young people don’t want houses and yard work. They want convenience.

Told everyone this years ago. Of course it’s a pox, of course the situation is driven by garbage policy.. but Zero chance condo prices will ever drop in the gta.

MF

#7 Yukon Elvis on 10.25.19 at 4:59 pm

What we need is the modern day equivalent of burying money in the back yard. A way to store wealth where government can’t reach it and inflation doesn’t erode it.Maybe bury gold coins or stamp collections or guns. Or stash hockey cards or Rembrandts in the attic like Garth’s buddy. Kyle Bass (the hedge fund guy)bought a million dollars worth of US nickels cuz he figured out that the scrap value was worth 6.8 cents. Where to stash the cash and prevent your wealth from being plundered?

#8 Sovavia on 10.25.19 at 5:00 pm

(1) Official forecasts are not useful; they obscure more than they enlighten.

Banks and governments never forecast a recession. Even in the midst of the September 2008 collapse, no one predicted one.

(2) In a parallel universe, the GST is raised and the tax bias toward real estate is fixed; maybe during a national coalition government between the Libs and the Cons.

(3) Luck is more important than skill in investment returns (see “The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing”).

#9 Mona on 10.25.19 at 5:33 pm

I will ask again.

A large part of outstanding mortgage debt is backed by CMHC (a.k.a. our government).

What happens when thousands, perhaps even millions default on their mortgages because interest rates normalized?

WHO will foot the bill?

Will savers and people with investment income be forced to pony up to pay for the ignorance of the people who bought in a frenzy of FOMO?

How can investors protect themselves?

What should they do NOW to better protect themselves from the government actions taken to cover possible mortgage defaults?

This seems like a very important question, Mr. Turner.

#10 Damifino on 10.25.19 at 5:50 pm

It goes without saying, T2 will have to throw a few crumbs Jagmeet’s way. But he shouldn’t expect much.

#11 Cottingham a bargain on 10.25.19 at 5:53 pm

I don’t hate saying I told you all so.

The GTA housing market, along with forever rising prices , is completely unstoppable simply for the fact that the government will stand firmly behind it with both policy and now money in the form of shared mortgages .

By the way , stress test and b20 rules have done nothing but drive people to alternate lending sources like private mortgages . A consistent return to be made there as well for the private lenders and more attractive , in my opinion , than financial assets .

Real estate in the GTA really is different . It really is infallible and the sooner all the bubble heads on this blog accept this fact the better you will all be.

#12 Andrewski on 10.25.19 at 5:57 pm

Re: HBP withdrawal increase, copied from Feds website:

“Modernizing the Home Buyers’ Plan

To help with the down payment and costs associated with the purchase of a first home, the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) allows first-time home buyers to withdraw up to $25,000 from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to purchase or build a home, without having to pay tax on the withdrawal.

Unlike regular RRSP withdrawals, HBP withdrawals are not added to a person’s income when withdrawn. Instead, the HBP withdrawals must be repaid over a 15-year period or included in the individual’s income if not repaid.

The HBP maximum withdrawal amount—currently $25,000—has not been adjusted for 10 years.

house iconTo provide first-time home buyers with greater access to their RRSP savings to purchase or build a home, Budget 2019 proposes to increase the Home Buyers’ Plan withdrawal limit to $35,000. This would be available for withdrawals made after March 19, 2019.

Alex and Michelle are a young couple living in Toronto where high home prices have put their goal of homeownership further from reach. With the increased HBP withdrawal limit, they will be able to withdraw up to $35,000 each from their RRSPs, for a total of $70,000, allowing them to contribute more toward their down payment, making home ownership possible.

For Canadians who have experienced a breakdown in their marriage or common-law partnership, it can be difficult to keep the family home under new and more challenging financial circumstances.

house iconTo help Canadians facing this challenging life event maintain homeownership, Budget 2019 also proposes that individuals that experience the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership be permitted to participate in the Home Buyers’ Plan, even if they do not meet the first-time home buyer requirement. This measure would be available for withdrawals made after 2019.

Increasing the HBP withdrawal limit to $35,000 and extending access to individuals who experience the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership is estimated to reduce federal revenues by $145 million over five years, starting in 2019–20.”

#13 yvr_lurker on 10.25.19 at 5:57 pm

I don’t see too much happening here in YVR except at the lower end of the market (where the T2 incentives may kick in for lower priced condos… ). Big mistake by T2 here. At the higher end though 1.5M + very little is moving according to my realtor neighbour as this was stoked by offshore people. Speculators, flippers, offshore are still largely out of the market owing to the extra taxes. The provincial NDP is still popular and (contrary to what many indicated previously) have not been caught up in any series of scandals and controversies. Bodes well for the next election.

#14 Cottingham a bargain on 10.25.19 at 5:59 pm

#4 Mr Fundamental on 10.25.19 at 4:44 pm
Words of wisdom from Garth!
“Don’t shovel all your net worth into a condo. At a minimum, fill that TFSA and stay invested.”

————-

An alternate to that strategy would be to put your money down on a new build condo as close to the GTA core as possible .

Hey I know ,let me self deprecate myself in advance of all the bubble heads …words of an idiot I’m sure .

#15 Sebee on 10.25.19 at 6:01 pm

Garth,

This isn’t a bad plan from the Liberals.

Either pay for real estate melting on the back end or pay to keep it inflated now, right?

Also, aligns to socialist agenda. Like communist east block counties in prime of cold war, it’s a first step to government owning all homes.

All makes perfect sense.

…now about your privacy, personal data and all that electronic social media facial recognition 24/7 smart phone tracking – every communist country’s wet dream – right? Who owns your data?

#16 oh bouy on 10.25.19 at 6:02 pm

I remember selling in 08 thinking i could do better down the road in a couple years. Glad I bought back in when I did. this run up in real estate value has been going for 20yrs now, gotta end sometime. doesn’t it?

#17 FreeBird on 10.25.19 at 6:05 pm

Short video on Brexit with info on deals and politicians involved…

https://youtu.be/_HDFegpX5gI

#18 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 6:07 pm

On top of all of this, 15 kids – taking cue and the money – (mostly) from other countries, timing the event to the teenage climate messiah’s Canadian tour – launched a “how dare you” lawsuit against this government.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canadian-teens-lawsuit-federal-government-over-climate-change-1.5331773

“The group is claiming the government’s “contribution” to high levels of greenhouse gases and climate change infringes on their right to equality, since young people are disproportionately affected by long-term effects of a deteriorating climate.

They say they have “suffered specific, individualized injuries” due to climate change, interfering with their constitutional rights to life, liberty and security of the person.”

These politically activated and remote controlled teenagers probably also share the climate crisis view, that we have just a handful of years left before humankind eliminates ???self from this planet.

If they are right, and life really cuts short, they have little chance to find out the ruling, which is most likely heading for the Supreme Court for final verdict – and all the victims of other social crimes – natives of this land for example – know all too well, serving justice usually takes decades to go nowhere.

Maybe the kids – and their group of prominent lawyers – hope that the PM gets scared again, about Canadian taxpayers going bankrupt by losing the lawsui. To save the constituency and family legacy, Trudeau will likely order the Queen’s lawyers to pay up handsomely, again, like they did to cure different kind of suffering of an other former teenager.

Reading this blog it is quite obvious, that just like climate change can ruin the life of young people, the real estate agony can be equally detrimental to health, happiness, probably it also violates at least one UN-certified human rights, to give full merit for let’s say millennials to sue the hell of the Canadian government, maybe with the financial support of Chinese NGOs.

There really is not much to lose, we are supposed to die soon, but if for some unforeseeable reason to science this sad and sudden end gets delayed into the deep future, T2’s handsome settlement millions can make the newly granted extension on life really enjoyable with carbon rich pleasures.

For T2 making a decision is a total no-brainer.
Who wants to go to hell for denying compensation for dying souls at the end of the world – especially with money that has reached heavenly abundance with the invention of paper printing press, or with further progress, releasing green bubbles of virtual monetary onezes.

#19 IHCTD9 on 10.25.19 at 6:07 pm

#123 Gravy Train on 10.25.19 at 3:59 pm
#67 IHCTD9 on 10.24.19 at 10:46 pm
“IMHO, […]” There’s nothing humble about you.

———- —

I asserted that wind/solar aren’t viable as an **alternative** in current society, given our huge consumption and massive peak loads.

You came sailing in saying you destroyed my argument because you’ve got a grid tied solar array and get by just fine.

You’re driving a hybrid and pretending you don’t need gasoline.

#20 under the radar on 10.25.19 at 6:09 pm

Foolish to believe GTA real estate is infallible . Like the titanic was unsinkable. A bad recession , a rapid escalation in interest rates from a black swan event and bang !!

#21 leebow on 10.25.19 at 6:10 pm

It looks like RE prices will achieve a permanently high plateau in a year or two.

#22 FreeBird on 10.25.19 at 6:14 pm

Professor’s experiment in socialism.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/646/does_socialism_work_a_classroom_experiment

#23 Shawn Allen on 10.25.19 at 6:16 pm

The Canadian Average Household Savings Rate???

I must admit I am confused about how it is calculated.

There is no doubt that the reported savings rate is low. I can’t dispute that.

From a google search “Statistics Canada reported Friday the household savings rate, which represents the proportion of disposable income that remains after spending,

From “trading economics” Personal Savings in Canada averaged 7.61 percent from 1961 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 21.60 percent in the first quarter of 1982 and a record low of 0.30 percent in the first quarter of 2005.

I have said that based on bank balance sheets and based on the fact that banks create deposits when they create loans we appear to be awash in savings just as much as we are awash in debt.

Perhaps corporations own the vast majority of the deposits / savings? But banks report a huge amount of personal deposits. Perhaps the 1% owns the vast majority of the savings / deposits and which offset the debt of the masses on bank balance sheets?

In my recent example of Frank selling his house for $500k to Joe who paid for it with a mortgage did that $475k (or whatever after fees) that landed in Frank’s bank account count as “net savings”. I am guessing no given the word net.

Bottom line, I can’t come to any understanding of this “net savings rate”. I find it extremely hard to believe it was over 20% in 1982. I was there. I was raised in a fairly affluent family. I can’t imagine many people at all saved anything close to 20% in 1982. No way the average was 20% when so many would have been 0% and less. Sure as heck not in Cape Breton.

Canadians have a lot of wealth. Someone owns a huge amount of bank deposits which are savings. Those deposits are growing very rapidly. Yet the savings rate is very low. I admit to being confused how that is possible.

Well, average figures are often useless anyway. Absolutely no family is average (with the 1.4 kids and all).

#24 yvr_lurker on 10.25.19 at 6:20 pm

And for those who thought that the Supreme Court would overthrow the legality of the

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/foreign-buyers-tax-housing-chinese-1.5336201foreign buyer tax

It would have been an outrage to have it any other way. Glad that Eby has a background in law as he must have thought of all of the possible avenues for challenging it.

#25 Calgary Man on 10.25.19 at 6:39 pm

Society is pooched.
Savings are no longer important because the family unit is being dismantled by the Globalists and United Nations. Those that do have families will see their children have less opportunities and vote in socialism in order to have their basic needs met.
Millenials (especially those born 1989 and after) are spending their paycheques on travel, fancy vehicles, eating out and other vanity projects.
Canada and the world will get more and more socialist as jobs vanish, automation increases and the population continues to rise.
One world government, Orwellien Nightmare here we come.

#26 IHCTD9 on 10.25.19 at 6:43 pm

#9 Mona on 10.25.19 at 5:33 pm
I will ask again.

A large part of outstanding mortgage debt is backed by CMHC (a.k.a. our government).

What happens when thousands, perhaps even millions default on their mortgages because interest rates normalized
——- –

I wouldn’t worry too much. Most mortgages in Canada are full recourse. So if buddy defaults, the bank takes his house, car, investments, furniture, everything of value – and sells them off.

On top of that, Canadians will sell their children into slavery before defaulting on their mortgages.

#27 ken r on 10.25.19 at 6:50 pm

Did someone mention burying money in the back yard?
That would be a deposit in the “Agricultural Bank”

#28 conan on 10.25.19 at 6:52 pm

#16 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 6:07 pm

What happened to the tobacco companies is going to happen to the oil companies. I think the 15 v the Feds is a “Sesame Street” practice- run for both sides.

The insurance companies are also keen to exercise their right to subrogation.

This is all going to happen within a decade, and Mark Carney hinted that it might even be sooner.

It’s time to reevaluate investments for this risk.

#29 Divorce Layer on 10.25.19 at 6:59 pm

“Best guidance: never buy a one-bedroom condo if you’re in a relationship. Bad move. Like voting, apparently.”

Buying a one bedroom condo is a bad idea for anyone who isn’t nearing retirement and already done with any family aspirations.

If you are single and want to get married and have kids one day, don’t buy a condo because you will have to dump it when the day comes. Invest your savings in your TFSA and RRSP instead. The money will be there when the time comes.

If you are single and don’t want to ever get married (smart!) rent so you can follow the jobs or follow the sun, and invest in your TFSA and RRSP instead.

If you love to travel and hike around Thailand for 6 months at a time, rent so you can ditch the apartment while you are away and invest in your TFSA and RRSP instead.

TFSA’s and RRSP’s are as mobile as you are. Your condo isn’t. It’s an anchor.

I can’t believe in this day and age of Car-to-go, rented electric scooters and e-bikes, Uber, experience vacations, the gig economy, anti-consumerism, mobility, personal freedom from ownership, and such, the very kids who drove those trends want to lock themselves into an apartment in the sky. Rent, my young friends. Stay free to follow your heart. You can’t follow your heart if you have a mortgage.

This is especially true in Alberta and Saskatchewan where it looks like mobility is now about the most important asset you can have. If the Liberals and the NDP have there way on environmental issues, the population of Alberta will decline by about 1/3 to 1/2 over the next ten years. That could be you. If that happens you will find yourself selling into a market that is severely overbuilt. As goes the vacancy rate for downtown commercial real-estate in Calgary (now running close to 30% and looking to get worse), so goes the residential occupancy rate (well, in inverse, and with a lag of several years).

#30 Cottingham a bargain on 10.25.19 at 7:12 pm

18 #under the radar on 10.25.19 at 6:09 pm
Foolish to believe GTA real estate is infallible . Like the titanic was unsinkable. A bad recession , a rapid escalation in interest rates from a black swan event and bang !!
——————

And as the bubble heads continue to prepare for those possibilities you mention,the escalation in prices continues as does the increased government support of that escalation. Seems like a foolish line to take.
———-

#24 IHCTD9-

You are correct in that a Canadian will do anything before defaulting on a mortgage .

They will sleep on the floor and with 20 others ( think Brampton) and skip eating before defaulting on a mortgage payment.

#31 Chris Bennett on 10.25.19 at 7:19 pm

Trump will be out before new year. invest accordingly

#32 Linda on 10.25.19 at 7:20 pm

#10 ‘Damifino’ Throw a few crumbs Jagmeet’s way? Are you serious? Minority government, remember? Both the Bloc & the NDP can ensure Liberal policies pass, but you can bet your assets that the cost of doing business isn’t going to be ‘a few crumbs’ worth.

Meanwhile, back to housing. All the people who didn’t sell last round but who need to sell in order to retire had best grab this possible last golden opportunity to get their pile of cash out before the bubble pops. This of course presumes they haven’t already sucked off any equity in the form of a reverse mortgage or HELOC & spent it to fund a lifestyle beyond their means.

#33 Mike S on 10.25.19 at 7:29 pm

#31 Chris Bennett on 10.25.19 at 7:19 pm
Trump will be out before new year. invest accordingly
———————————–

Good luck with that

#34 Drill Baby Drill on 10.25.19 at 7:35 pm

Very good post today dog blog.

#35 Drill Baby Drill on 10.25.19 at 7:37 pm

I believe that Trump will implode over the next short while. This will start a market swoon much sooner than a couple of years. Canada is not prepared for a downturn in the USA. We have no real trading partners (friends?) that we can count on anymore.

#36 brian woodward on 10.25.19 at 7:40 pm

Nice one. Not boring.

#37 Nonplused on 10.25.19 at 7:46 pm

The Rift

Scott Moe (Premier of Saskatchewan) has laid down the terms.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6066881/saskatchewan-premier-scott-moe-justin-trudeau/

Scroll down for a PDF of the letter. The demands:

“1. Cancel the Federal carbon tax.
2. Commit to negotiate a new equalization formula that is fair to Alberta and Saskatchewan.
3. Commit to develop a plan to ensure that Saskatchewan and Alberta can get our exports to international markets. This means pipelines.”

Mr. Moe of course forgot to include all of the ridings all up and down the Alberta/BC border in BC that also voted Conservative because they are deeply affected by these issues. But he can’t really speak for them while taking BC as a whole. BC itself acts like an empire, with most of the votes concentrated in and around Vancouver, who then treats the hinterlands as a resource to be exploited for the benefit of Vancouver, sort of like how Ottawa treats the rest of Canada.

Anyway, the honorable Mr. Moe said to reporters that he did not favor separation, and this letter was not meant to be about separation. That’s like saying a letter to your wife asking her to stop blowing all the families grocery money on VLT’s and stop driving home from the pub drunk is not about divorce. He is being fair, in that he is allowing Trudeau and the rest of Canada to respond before he calls in the divorce lawyers. But don’t think it is anything other than that.

Mr. Moe missed point number 4, which is that the Trudeau government has to stop talking about shutting down the oil sands. That will never happen, unless the invisible hand of economics without government interference dictates that it should, which any reasonable view of the future would indicate also won’t happen. Maybe Trudeau could say the oil sands must reduce carbon emissions to that of say shale oil. Great! Already done! Maybe he wants them to go down a little more. Great! We’ll build a nuclear reactor to source the steam! But shut them down? Stop dreaming.

The die has been cast. The demands have been made.
Wexit is real, and a looming national disaster. As I have made a case for in previous comments that Garth didn’t like, Ottawa does not have a military option. The thought of tanks rolling through Edmonton is preposterous, they would never get there. No soldier would be willing to fight. The US would intervene, and not on the side of Ottawa. Thus, it will be negotiated.

When I was a kid, I used to have a “Republic of Western Canada” ball cap. I wish I still had it, but I have no idea where it ended up. How strange is it that it was a Trudeau in the PM’s office when that was popular too. Well, what’s old is new. Nothing divides the country like a Trudeau, and this one isn’t smart enough to know when his ideology has gone too far. He lives on a stage where all he needs to do is act. But he doesn’t realize this isn’t a theatrical performance. Shit is going to get real soon.

#38 TurnerNation on 10.25.19 at 7:54 pm

#18 akashic record – please tell their parents I stand ready to buy their water- lake- and ocean front cottages now – before they become uninsurable then unhabitable.

I will pay 10% of assesed value, that is 10 cents on the dollar.
Reply with
– Lawyer’s contact and escrow account wire details.
– Copy of most recent tax assessment.

Easy peasy. This offer stands. Think of their inheritance.
I also will consider boathouses and watercraft therein.

…would anyone put it past the UN to sue then bankrupt 1st world countries over this? Very good chance.

#39 Damifino on 10.25.19 at 7:54 pm

#32 Linda

Both the Bloc & the NDP can ensure Liberal policies pass, but you can bet your assets that the cost of doing business isn’t going to be ‘a few crumbs’ worth.
———————————–

Good one. What’s the BQ going to do after their miraculous rise from the dead? Tread carefully is what.

What’s the NDP going to do after depleting their meager resources in a bitter fight that left them with half the seats they started with? Bring down the government on a budget vote? Or on any confidence vote?

Nope. It’ll be crumbs. Real putzy stuff. And then only because it might be seen as the gentlemanly thing to do.

If it’s a vote for anything regarding a pipeline headed in a westward direction, the Dippers can pound sand because the Conservatives will support it.

And if its a vote for anything to do with Quebec, T2 will ensure it’s a sweet deal right off the bat. It’s his home province and he’s always cared deeply about the fortunes of La Belle Province. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have tossed JWR to the wolves over a relatively small number of jobs (compared to those lost in Alberta).

#40 Margaret on 10.25.19 at 7:56 pm

DELETED

#41 Flop... on 10.25.19 at 7:57 pm

Not my flip nor flop. I quoted the feds – who just finished a house-pumping campaign. Don’t blame me. – Garth

//////////////////

I had to read it twice just to make sure you weren’t disowning me…

M45BC

#42 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 8:00 pm

#26 conan

Alright then.
Let’s bring back the natives to run the land.
No other society was more environment friendly. They didn’t preach it, they lived it.
They know that tobacco is a sacred plant, not cigarette.
They know tobacco doesn’t need tobacco industry.
They know people’s life should not be ruled by insurance companies.
Mark Carney’s role is quite questionable in the environmentally pristine world.

#43 Ustabe on 10.25.19 at 8:02 pm

Some of today’s posters need to push away from the computer and let Pasha take over for a bit. Go outside, take a walk.

Beautiful late fall day in Leningrad.

#44 Social Conservative on 10.25.19 at 8:03 pm

What social liberal thing would a person have done such that they would call orientation-Scheer not a social liberal?

#45 Doug t on 10.25.19 at 8:11 pm

65 cent dollar anyone – hewers of wood and drawers of water is Canada’s legacy and will continue to keep us at the mercy of the world markets – plus let’s face it the U.S. could easily walk across our border at some point in the future and say “ alright folks put down yer hockey sticks and poutine cause your now officially ours”

#46 saskatoon on 10.25.19 at 8:21 pm

recessions are SO twentieth century.

#47 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.25.19 at 8:26 pm

#18 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 6:07 pm sez:

“On top of all of this, 15 kids – taking cue and the money – (mostly) from other countries, timing the event to the teenage climate messiah’s Canadian tour – launched a “how dare you” lawsuit against this government.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canadian-teens-lawsuit-federal-government-over-climate-change-1.5331773

“The group is claiming the government’s “contribution” to high levels of greenhouse gases and climate change infringes on their right to equality, since young people are disproportionately affected by long-term effects of a deteriorating climate.

They say they have “suffered specific, individualized injuries” due to climate change, interfering with their constitutional rights to life, liberty and security of the person.”

These politically activated and remote controlled teenagers probably also share the climate crisis view, that we have just a handful of years left before humankind eliminates ???self from this planet.”
——————————————
If these dumbass kids and their obviously even more dumbass enabling parents want to see what it’s really like to have their dumbass lives cut short their power and any/all natural gas supplies should be cut off immediately.

Just so they can experience some realism of what life is really like in the 1850’s.

#48 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.25.19 at 8:26 pm

Dumbasses.

#49 Flop... on 10.25.19 at 8:27 pm

I wrote a post trying to help out one of Garths stories yesterday that also ties into this one.

If you want a fairly new house in Vancouver under a million you need to buy an Infill house.

This one is 1400 sq ft 3 bed, 3 bath.

It was built in 2016 and still has some warranty left on it.

They are around East Vancouver and in my b-grade opinion better than buying a Townhome or a Condo.

You get a detached property with no maintenance fees and you share an oversize block of land with 2 or 3 other structures.

Once the development is established, like this one, you can see what the vibe is in the mini complex and if kids or pets playing are an issue, you buy one located near a park.

The person selling this one is most likely going to take a loss so that’s why I suggested the person put an aggressive offer in on if the thought rentals were not going to be the answer long- term with a growing family.

You friends will tease you that your neighbors are too close, but there is nothing above and below.

Maybe just heaven and hell, but as an atheist I’m not qualified to comment on that…

M45BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5512-dundee-street

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.19 at 8:33 pm

@#41 Flop
“I had to read it twice just to make sure you weren’t disowning me…
+++++
Uncle Garth has you in the Will?

You rock!

#51 AGuyInVancouver on 10.25.19 at 8:34 pm

#37 Nonplused on 10.25.19 at 7:46 pm
The Rift

Scott Moe (Premier of Saskatchewan) has laid down the terms.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6066881/saskatchewan-premier-scott-moe-justin-trudeau/

Scroll down for a PDF of the letter. The demands:

“1. Cancel the Federal carbon tax.
2. Commit to negotiate a new equalization formula that is fair to Alberta and Saskatchewan.
3. Commit to develop a plan to ensure that Saskatchewan and Alberta can get our exports to international markets. This means pipelines.”..
_ _ _
With all the respect due to Scott Moe (none) he is in no position to make any demands. Does anybody really care what Saskatchewan wants? It’s bad enough we have to pretend to care and listen to Alberta’s whining.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.19 at 8:44 pm

@#96 IHCTD9
“I remember watching Dad split wood, and was amazed how he could nail the first crack right on the money with the second swing. Definitely one of those jobs that an experienced dude can make look easy.”
++++

Yep.
My uncle( who’s now almost 90)
Would walk me out to the wood pile and grab the maul.
“Here’s how its done”
THA-WACK!
The split pieces would jump 4 feet in opposite directions.
Impressive.
THA-WACK!
He’d do it four or five more times and then glare at me and say , “Got it?” as he handed me the maul…
Who could refuse and be subjugated to the endless embarrassment…?
“Yup! Got it!’
He’d then leave me with a cord (or two) to split.
Of course many years later he let on that the wood he grabbed and split was last years dried wood without knots.
I was splitting this years fresh, green cut….full of knots.
Blisters and bruises……
Builds character I suppose

#53 Flop... on 10.25.19 at 8:49 pm

If I was Albertan I would most likely be miffed at the moment.

Would I be pushing to become part of The United States?

The way Washington D.C treated Puerto Rico in their time of need should give you pause…

M45BC

#54 AlbertaGuy in AB on 10.25.19 at 9:04 pm

How a social network could save democracy from deadlock

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50127713

#55 To Hell with Alberta on 10.25.19 at 9:21 pm

Norway’s trust fund today is worth $1.4 trillion CDN and will provide wealth for everyone for decades.

Alberta’s?

Squandered by 40 years of financially incompetent Conservative idiots.

Don’t point the finger at the rest of Canada, Albertans.

Look yourselves in the mirror.

Too many of you have willfully been……….

Stupid.

Financially illiterate.

Right Wing Fools.

Too bad Garth Turner wasn’t your financial advisor back in the day.

LOL.

#56 Linda on 10.25.19 at 9:28 pm

#39 ‘Damifino’ – consider that the 3rd & 4th parties in size essentially hold the balance of power. If for some reason the Liberals do not accede to the NDP requests & approach the Bloc for support, keep in mind that the Bloc have never been known to be shy, demure types who sit in a corner & wait to be asked to dance. More like slap you across the face for looking at them sideways, declare the proffered 1 carat diamond is ‘an insult’, demand 10 carats minimum – and get it.

#57 Reality is stark on 10.25.19 at 9:42 pm

We should be supporting R&D investments and initiatives as good governance. Instead we goose real estate for political purposes. Short sighted policy that guarantees long term poverty. However it is a sector which is easy to tax through property tax increases and land transfer taxes.
The taxes are used to provide outrageous pensions to public sector workers. In the meantime we get to enjoy a long term decline in the average private sector employee’s standard of living.
We vote to mortgage our future to support the risk averse. Brilliant public policy.

#58 Gravy Train on 10.25.19 at 9:47 pm

#19 IHCTD9 on 10.25.19 at 6:07 pm
“I asserted that wind/solar aren’t viable as an alternative in current society, given our huge consumption and massive peak loads.” You didn’t answer my question: Why does green power have to be stand-alone? :)

“You came sailing in saying you destroyed my argument because you’ve got a grid-tied solar array and get by just fine.” You said, “The typical Ontario household uses over [750 kWh] per month.” I said, “My solar panels […] on average […] produce 873 kWh per month.” My solar panels produce all the clean energy I need, and I can sell the surplus back to the power company. Checkmate. :)

“You’re driving a hybrid and pretending you don’t need gasoline.” Unlike you who’s just using gasoline, which you have to pay for. I get to use the sun for free. :)

#59 palebird on 10.25.19 at 9:51 pm

Hey GuyinVancouver,

Do you actually believe anybody cares what you think? Lotusland is completely out of touch with anything. Nobody cares what people in Vancouver think.

#60 Dutchy on 10.25.19 at 9:54 pm

So the Voters had it all wrong (Dumbos)
Scheer knows better and wants to remain the leader of the two prairie provinces.
T2 for another 8 years ??

#61 Tony on 10.25.19 at 9:56 pm

Re: #31 Chris Bennett on 10.25.19 at 7:19 pm

It’s all up to John Bolton.

#62 DON on 10.25.19 at 10:08 pm

#39 Damifino on 10.25.19 at 7:54 pm

#32 Linda

Both the Bloc & the NDP can ensure Liberal policies pass, but you can bet your assets that the cost of doing business isn’t going to be ‘a few crumbs’ worth.
———————————–

Good one. What’s the BQ going to do after their miraculous rise from the dead? Tread carefully is what.

What’s the NDP going to do after depleting their meager resources in a bitter fight that left them with half the seats they started with? Bring down the government on a budget vote? Or on any confidence vote?

Nope. It’ll be crumbs. Real putzy stuff. And then only because it might be seen as the gentlemanly thing to do.

If it’s a vote for anything regarding a pipeline headed in a westward direction, the Dippers can pound sand because the Conservatives will support it.

And if its a vote for anything to do with Quebec, T2 will ensure it’s a sweet deal right off the bat. It’s his home province and he’s always cared deeply about the fortunes of La Belle Province. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have tossed JWR to the wolves over a relatively small number of jobs (compared to those lost in Alberta).
*****************

This is exactly what is playing out right now in BC.

Federal NDP need exposure and will back the Libs. The TMX is going ahead baring the First Nations. Trudeau seeks redemption doesn’t he? We may get pharma care or dental/medical combination.

You and me and the rest of the people benefit from minority governments as they have to work together and be somewhat reasonable in their policies and legislation.

#63 conan on 10.25.19 at 10:17 pm

#42 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 8:00 pm

Investing in oil industries still makes sense, but you have to look at them differently . There is now an environmental risk component . Canada has good regulation in this regard. Other countries not so much.

#64 Sail Away on 10.25.19 at 10:28 pm

#31 Chris Bennett on 10.25.19 at 7:19 pm
Trump will be out before new year. invest accordingly

—————————–

Yes, of course he will. And pigs will fly and your prediction will be right because….??

Nothing less trustworthy than speculators like this. They never own their incorrect calls and continue to float goofy opinions. Don’t trust them for investing or anything else.

#65 DON on 10.25.19 at 10:31 pm

#32 Linda on 10.25.19 at 7:20 pm

#10 ‘Damifino’ Throw a few crumbs Jagmeet’s way? Are you serious? Minority government, remember? Both the Bloc & the NDP can ensure Liberal policies pass, but you can bet your assets that the cost of doing business isn’t going to be ‘a few crumbs’ worth.

Meanwhile, back to housing. All the people who didn’t sell last round but who need to sell in order to retire had best grab this possible last golden opportunity to get their pile of cash out before the bubble pops. This of course presumes they haven’t already sucked off any equity in the form of a reverse mortgage or HELOC & spent it to fund a lifestyle beyond their means.
******************
Judging by the number of reverse mortgages and deferred property taxes (BC – not sure about rest of Canada) people are using their houses as daily ATMs for a number of reasons. Last chance is right. My friend just sold her house after she got divorce, after paying off debt she is planning of a trip then back to work. At least she got out after an unexpected divorce (no kids involved). I am happy for her.

#66 Moh on 10.25.19 at 10:44 pm

Seems like my semi purchase is looking better and better now.

#67 april on 10.25.19 at 10:52 pm

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/greater-vancouver-home-prices-headed-lower-for-longer/

#68 april on 10.25.19 at 10:55 pm

PS: Formafist – real estate on youtube… just his opinion.

#69 DON on 10.25.19 at 10:56 pm

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.19 at 8:44 pm

Yep.
My uncle( who’s now almost 90)
Would walk me out to the wood pile and grab the maul.
“Here’s how its done”
THA-WACK!
The split pieces would jump 4 feet in opposite directions.
Impressive.
THA-WACK!
He’d do it four or five more times and then glare at me and say , “Got it?” as he handed me the maul…
Who could refuse and be subjugated to the endless embarrassment…?
“Yup! Got it!’
He’d then leave me with a cord (or two) to split.
Of course many years later he let on that the wood he grabbed and split was last years dried wood without knots.
I was splitting this years fresh, green cut….full of knots.
Blisters and bruises……
Builds character I suppose
*******************

Punishment meant splitting wood with my parents, I grew to enjoy it and become really good at it. Practice makes perfect right!

Had a similar experience with my Grandfather – in his later years he took a chair a small axe and the small sledge hammer and he would whittle away at the blocks and somehow bet me to split the rest.

I’m also thinking about woodfire pizza.

#70 Sail Away on 10.25.19 at 10:56 pm

#42 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 8:00 pm
#26 conan

Alright then.
Let’s bring back the natives to run the land.
No other society was more environment friendly. They didn’t preach it, they lived it.
They know that tobacco is a sacred plant, not cigarette.
They know tobacco doesn’t need tobacco industry.
They know people’s life should not be ruled by insurance companies.
Mark Carney’s role is quite questionable in the environmentally pristine world.

———————————–

The theme with people is that when the technology exists to exploit the environment, and there is a benefit to doing so, all humans will exploit it.

An argument that peoples without the ability to exploit the environment were environmentally friendlier doesn’t hold water, since they didn’t have the technology to do so. Where has any group of humans voluntarily refused to accept an easier life or personal gain?

#71 Hawkeye on 10.25.19 at 11:00 pm

THE STORM
-People come and air there frustration
-The election is over we got a Prime Minster who has no life skills out of touch with reality
– Garth has been trying for years to explain it in very understanding way but it seems they do not get it
– Some people and very smart people miss it
– It is simple you need to work and save for a down payment on a house yourself the payments can not exceed 32% of your income on borrowed money
– Real Estate and all the costs that go with it are so far out of control it is going to cripple our country
– The public wants everything for nothing it does not work this is our young peoples future lets fix this .
– This all starts at the top at the Prime Minster level everyone take a 10% pay cut ( I guess no one told you we
can not compete in the world when regular houses cost 1
million dollars for working people they can not keep up]
-It will fall apart sooner than you think PLEASE WAKE UP
– Fix is from the top down you Lead by showing not just going on TV talking and nothing gets done.

#72 Sail Away on 10.25.19 at 11:02 pm

Anybody see Tesla’s 25% jump in the last two days? Elon is an absolute genius who is the face of the future. Buy a Tesla and stay long Tesla stock. Game-changers like this are few and far between; when they come along, bet heavily.

#73 John on 10.25.19 at 11:08 pm

Garth might know what to do with liquid funds in investment vehicles but he’s been saying this market is full of risk for 10 years as investors were made rich in housing.

There’s risk in the housing market but the stock market is a bubble of epic proportions because of QE infinity.

I wonder why Garth never mentions the increasing risk in stocks AND bonds when we are late in the debt cycle.

A broken clock is right twice a day. Sadly for Garth, he’s still waiting and been 10 years let alone a day.

#74 Don Guillermo on 10.25.19 at 11:57 pm

#53 Flop… on 10.25.19 at 8:49 pm
If I was Albertan I would most likely be miffed at the moment.
Would I be pushing to become part of The United States?
The way Washington D.C treated Puerto Rico in their time of need should give you pause…

*****************************************

and Ottawa/ROC should give us what? … fast forward…

this will not end well

#75 Dr V on 10.26.19 at 12:08 am

49 Flop – interesting property. The link says it is “non
conforming strata” but a little research confirmed the structures as “not previously occupied” in 2016. As this means new construction, all the usual development and building permits would be required.

Any idea why it’s deemed “non-comforming”?

#76 Dr V on 10.26.19 at 12:33 am

Hey flop – part 2 of my investigation on Vanmap gave me the RT-11 zone. I found the bylaw here

https://bylaws.vancouver.ca/zoning/zoning-by-law-district-schedule-rt-11.pdf

Note that the pages are dated for earlier this year, so it is likely that despite the near-new building, the bylaw may have been amended creating the non-conformance.

Try to get out this weekend and enjoy what is
supposed to be nice weather (after a little wind!)

#77 not 1st on 10.26.19 at 12:37 am

https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-cutting-room-files-part-3-the-future-of-canada

Quote; There is no modern Canada without Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength, and there is no Albertan and Saskatchewan financial strength without the two provinces’ energy sectors.

#78 not 1st on 10.26.19 at 12:47 am

#51 AGuyInVancouver on 10.25.19 at 8:34 pm

Every part of Canada is aging into oblivion except AB and Sk. They have the youngest highest per capita populations. They are literally paying for the social programs for the rest of the provinces.

Play with a population pyramid for a bit and see whats coming.

Are you absolutely sure you want to kill the golden goose?

http://population-pyramids.github.io/#/Alberta/Canada

#79 Smoking Man on 10.26.19 at 1:11 am

Clapper on CNN

“I don’t know why I’m being investigated, I was only doing what Obama told me to do.”

The swamp. Zero loyalty…. Watch em eat each other now…

Popcorn….

#80 Sid on 10.26.19 at 1:21 am

Hi Garth…I withdraw $25K from RRSP for house purchase in Feb 2019, can I still withdraw the extra $10K Fed added this year? Thank you.

#81 Stan Brooks on 10.26.19 at 2:46 am

#11 Cottingham a bargain on 10.25.19 at 5:53 pm

Real estate in the GTA really is different . It really is infallible and the sooner all the bubble heads on this blog accept this fact the better you will all be.

You could be right in terms of nominal prices.

Real estate was ‘infallible’ in Japan few decades ago, the most industrial/high tech country in the world with huge trade surplus, then in US, the world’s economy engine.

Travel around and you will notice the insignificance of our economy and un-attractiveness of GTA with crumbling/non-existing infrastructure, low working class wages, high taxes, lack of entertainment and lifestyle, bad weather.

The notion that a declining in terms of importance and competitiveness economy (we barely make top 20 in terms of size of the economy in the world in real terms and are projected to go much, much lower in that ranking) can sustain the biggest real estate bubble the world has ever seen is highly exaggerated.

An economic tsunami is in the cards that will most likely manifest itself in huge deficits, inflationary depression and real contraction of economic activity.

There is nothing the government can do about it except deferring it for a little while and making it more severe when it unfolds.

It is inevitable, a certainty.

#82 Robert Ash on 10.26.19 at 5:00 am

Number 54’s reference to a vTaiwan, is a great suggestion to start fixing many of our problems. It is a simple method of finding consensus using technology and computers, to arrive at common sense decisions… if the Question of a referendum on Immigration was asked to all Canadians, with a PC, then we could move forward, with the Majority votes legitimized, and done… We have the ” My Account” to collect the CRA sole revenue source… Why can’t I vote on this platform, also…. relative to divisive issues, like Pipelines, Equalization, etc… We are shut out, and should shut out our Tax remittances, until we are included in the decisions… easy and fair… all around…

#83 maxx on 10.26.19 at 7:16 am

@ #23

I see the “savings rate” figures as more of a litmus test result as to where job and economic states are now.

In ’82, although interest rates were sky high, people had much more secure jobs, far more people had company pensions and advantages and corporate computer apps of all stripes had not yet excoriated and redistributed wealth back to what appears to me to be parallel to the middle ages.

Sure, we have cars, convenience and the illusion of comfort, but most of the crap we buy is made of plastic (read oil), our frankenfood (read GMO) is laced with glyphosate, pesticides, fungicides and processed to oblivion. It took us years to convert our pantry to organic and rid ourselves of most of this junk and we’re still peeling that onion.

We talk about condos today and the junk building standards that are now standard. Pressed cornflakes, plastic home wrap and a boatload of oil-based finishing products that gas off. Mold traps as the building doesn’t breathe. Detached housing is not exempt either. All of this “luxury” is pimped with a slab of granite, ss appliances and hardwood, although I hear that vinyl flooring is now hot.

People pay more money now for less house than ever and if purchased new, for far inferior quality.

So yes, there are pools of cash, huge pools of cash on deposit, but the owners are indeed non-spending corps and people who will hang onto their savings no matter what it takes.

Many who actually have cash on deposit are becoming expert in maintaining the life they desire whilst sourcing everything they need at pennies on the dollar. And they still have a wild card in their back pockets: should corps succeed in totally controlling prices, people can simply disburse cash with an eye dropper. Let’s see how that plays out with “stock replacement flow” and bulk buying at big box stores.

The savings rate is not healthy. At all. The mound of cash is huge because its endlessly printed by demented central banks – it just isn’t distributed as equitably as it was not so long ago.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/new-york-fed-offers-to-inject-more-liquidity-into-the-banking-system-2003576

If armies of these economic gurus can’t put things right over decades, the problem is huge and systemic. Planning on it changing is a mistake. Fundamentals don’t mean much anymore.

Save like there’s no tomorrow. Spend carefully and question everything, especially markup.

The economic boom IMHO, is over. The deck chairs are simply being redistributed on the deck.

And the people aren’t happy.

#84 Keith in Rio on 10.26.19 at 7:57 am

In Calgary the number of new listings and relistings exploding !!

Politically, as I predicted, Andre’s Scheer wasa joke. Personality and leadership skills of a wet towel all rolled into one. What was the CPC thinking ? Have they no leaders remaining?

#85 Dharma Bum on 10.26.19 at 8:32 am

#9 Mona

What should they do NOW to better protect themselves from the government actions taken to cover possible mortgage defaults?
——————————————————————–

Buy guns and ammo.

Head for the hills.

Y’know. Be like an American!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich

#86 Dharma Bum on 10.26.19 at 8:41 am

#45 Doug t

…let’s face it the U.S. could easily walk across our border at some point in the future and say “ alright folks put down yer hockey sticks and poutine cause your now officially ours”.
——————————————————————-

I don’t think we’ll get so lucky.

One can only dream……………..

#87 Scott Danin on 10.26.19 at 8:47 am

Tesla will be bankrupt in 5 years maximum. You read it here first.

#88 Dharma Bum on 10.26.19 at 8:52 am

#81 Stan Brooks

The notion that a declining in terms of importance and competitiveness economy (we barely make top 20 in terms of size of the economy in the world in real terms and are projected to go much, much lower in that ranking) can sustain the biggest real estate bubble the world has ever seen is highly exaggerated.
——————————————————————–

People will continue to flock to the GTA like there is no tomorrow, notwithstanding the perceived economic sustainability of the megalopolis.

People around the globe see the GTA as a safe haven from everything that they are escaping from: persecution, racism, intolerance, dictatorships, poverty, slums, natural disasters, disease, squalor, tribalism (the real kind), religious insanity, and death.

Look around you in the GTA. It’s refugee heaven.

Demand for residency in the GTA will continue to rise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFnOfpIJL0M

#89 Tammy Simms on 10.26.19 at 9:04 am

I know this is mainly an investment or forum but I hope this comment passes mustard. I mean I hope this comment does not get deleted, shut out.

I am part of a group that believes in aggressive saving. We don’t want to depend on taking more risk to achieve maybe an extra 2% to 2.5% a year so the way we look at it we save much more per month, year.

We would rather get 2.75% to 2.85% on our GIC’s and instead of saving 10% or 15% of our net income per year we decide to save 45% to 55% of our net income per year.

We do agree that information and strategies utilizing the most of RESP’s, RDSP’s, RRSP’s, TFSA’s and any tax deferred, tax sheltered, tax free plans that help us save more and keep more is well appreciated on this forum.

Some of us have achieved our financial and other goals or are so close to them that we do appreciate your advice on the dividend tax credit and dividend investing. Some of us have taken 10% to 15% of our total investments to be applied to such investments. We can live well with even 90% to 85% of all our investments so we look at it as a pure risk play.

Garth, we may disagree on many things but you do give alot of important information and strategies that make alot of sense and make us save more in the long run.

#90 akashic record on 10.26.19 at 9:16 am

#55 To Hell with Alberta on 10.25.19 at 9:21 pm

Norway’s trust fund today is worth $1.4 trillion CDN and will provide wealth for everyone for decades.

Alberta’s?

Interestingly, Norway is not member of the EU, no equalization of their national wealth is going to economically less fortunate members from Bruxelles.

Could any province actually legally crate a trust fund in Canada, shielding wealth from Ottawa? I doubt…

#91 akashic record on 10.26.19 at 9:24 am

#70 Sail Away on 10.25.19 at 10:56 pm

#42 akashic record on 10.25.19 at 8:00 pm
#26 conan

Alright then.
Let’s bring back the natives to run the land.
No other society was more environment friendly. They didn’t preach it, they lived it.
They know that tobacco is a sacred plant, not cigarette.
They know tobacco doesn’t need tobacco industry.
They know people’s life should not be ruled by insurance companies.
Mark Carney’s role is quite questionable in the environmentally pristine world.

———————————–

The theme with people is that when the technology exists to exploit the environment, and there is a benefit to doing so, all humans will exploit it.

An argument that peoples without the ability to exploit the environment were environmentally friendlier doesn’t hold water, since they didn’t have the technology to do so. Where has any group of humans voluntarily refused to accept an easier life or personal gain?

Go visit any reservation in your province you will find some.

You can exploit tobacco because “there is a benefit to doing so” but you turn a secred plant with purpose and way of using it properly to a poison, that creates more cost, suffering than the profit from exploitation.

#92 MF on 10.26.19 at 10:11 am

77 not 1st on 10.26.19 at 12

Man just give it a break already. Do you ever have anything positive to say?

Here’s a thought: not everyone thinks like you.

Here’s another thought: no one is stopping you from moving to the US and complaining about everyone and everything there.

MF

#93 Asterix1 on 10.26.19 at 10:20 am

CMHC should be barred from making any “predictions”! That is not their role.

Legislation must be placed to restrict them from joining the rest of RE cartel in pumping all this nonsense.

Reports coming in from International banks, IMF and others clearly show GTA is in a massive bubble. Debt levels are atrocious and the rest of the negatives.

Yet, here! Not a word!! Its all great, keep buying. MSM was bought offa long time ago by RE cartel and T2!

#94 Remembrancer on 10.26.19 at 10:25 am

#82 Robert Ash on 10.26.19 at 5:00 am
Number 54’s reference to a vTaiwan, is a great suggestion to start fixing many of our problems. It is a simple method of finding consensus using technology and computers, to arrive at common sense decisions… if the Question of a referendum on Immigration was asked to all Canadians, with a PC, then we could move forward, with the Majority votes legitimized, and done…
———————————————
Interesting and almost a return to an ancient Greek city-state democracy style, though “citizens'” franchise would need to be much broader as that was a rather exclusive club. Your placement of the comma before “with a PC” may intentionally or unintentionally underscore a fundamental challenge as this needs to assume universality of access of a device and internet access, which is not the case…

Assuming so, since you mentioned immigration, if whatever scheme any tattered remnants of the PPC would propose would never get much above 1.6% would you all finally find something else socially productive to do?

#95 IHCTD9 on 10.26.19 at 10:33 am

#58 Gravy Train on 10.25.19 at 9:47 pm

“You didn’t answer my question: Why does green power have to be stand-alone? :)”

Because if it can’t, it’s not a viable alternative. Nukes can. Coal can. Hydro can. That’s why these technologies are upstream of you feeding the grid instead of solar and wind.

“My solar panels […] on average […] produce 873 kWh per month.” My solar panels produce all the clean energy I need…”

No they don’t. Don’t believe me? Unhook yourself from the grid and see what happens.

You asked how you were not being honest – you are not admitting your solar NEEDS the grid. The grid is your battery, your ”peaker”, and your inverter.

I’m thinking you just paid an outfit to put your solar in and just signed the cheque. You don’t seem to understand all the things the grid is doing for you.

#96 NoName on 10.26.19 at 11:05 am

So Im wondering is price about to up or down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-22/u-s-bacon-pile-is-biggest-in-48-years-but-may-start-to-ebb?__twitter_impression=true

#97 Flop... on 10.26.19 at 11:10 am

Dr v.
49 Flop – interesting property. The link says it is “non
conforming strata” but a little research confirmed the structures as “not previously occupied” in 2016. As this means new construction, all the usual development and building permits would be required.

Any idea why it’s deemed “non-comforming”?

#76 Dr V on 10.26.19 at 12:33 am

Morning Vamp, from the web…

“Most non-conforming stratas exist when a detached home is converted into multiple residences, or when a newly built property is built with multiple units. You will see non-conforming strata situations in duplexes, triplexes or heritage homes that have been converted into multiple residences.”

Most of the ones I have seen have been built on oversize corner or irregular shaped blocks of land.

They appear slightly tighter together than standard housing and seem to feature concrete and stone with minimal landscaping and grass to maintain.

I have documented on here before about one of the more famous infill developments in my neighborhood.

On a corner lot they actually jacked up and moved around 10 meters an 1895 built heritage house.

They then built three new structures surrounding it.

If you look at the links you can see the heritage house moved.

In Vancouver if you want a new house under a million you have to get creative.

This is creative…

M45BC

https://vancouvertrueborns.com/post/133625027656/6306-prince-albert-street-at-47th-avenue-was

Scroll down to see plans and pictures.

https://council.vancouver.ca/documents/phea3-6306PrinceAlbertStreet.pdf

#98 Dr V on 10.26.19 at 11:16 am

65 don – what stats do you have on the reverse mortgages?

#99 Shawn Allen on 10.26.19 at 12:25 pm

The Wondrous early 80’s?

#83 maxx on 10.26.19 at 7:16 am
@ #23 responded:

I see the “savings rate” figures as more of a litmus test result as to where job and economic states are now.

In ’82, although interest rates were sky high, people had much more secure jobs, far more people had company pensions and advantages and corporate computer apps of all stripes had not yet excoriated and redistributed wealth back to what appears to me to be parallel to the middle ages.

******************
I appreciate the response.

I’m guessing you are not old enough to remember the economy of 1982. Actual, while things were about to get way better, 1982 was a terrible time for the economy.

Think brutal interest rates, brutal inflation and unemployment at about twice today’s level. We called it stagflation. For Alberta , think national energy program and housing price collapse. A Trudeau was Prime Minister for goodness sakes!

Many thousands lost their homes in Ontario.

But yes, there were more union jobs and more defined benefit pensions.

I suspect the high calculated NET savings rate back then had more to do with people desperately paying off debt than with actual additions to savings.

1982 was clearly a terrible time for the Canadian economy and if the net savings rate indicates otherwise then it is the calculation of the net savings rate that is suspect.

#100 Jenny Wang on 10.26.19 at 12:36 pm

Garth, you’ve finally and absolutely lost your claim that Chinese Dudes weren’t the cause of the rapid inflation of real estate prices. Squabble with the Supreme Court . It’s been adjudicated in its entirety. You were wrong all along and the rest of us were right.

https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/court-rules-against-claim-that-b-c-s-foreign-buyers-tax-is-discriminatory

#101 Sideshow Rob on 10.26.19 at 12:39 pm

#79 Smoking Man on 10.26.19 at 1:11 am

Clapper on CNN

“I don’t know why I’m being investigated, I was only doing what Obama told me to do.”

The swamp. Zero loyalty…. Watch em eat each other now…

Popcorn….

————————————————-

The trail is heading straight to Hillary. And she knows it.
I always figured she would let the other Dem candidates out stupid each other and then announce her candidacy by mid January. The game has now changed. I’m guessing she will hop on her broom, ride to DC, and toss her colostomy bag in the ring an early as next week. We shall see.

#102 Renter's Revenge! on 10.26.19 at 12:49 pm

#55 To Hell with Alberta on 10.25.19 at 9:21 pm
Norway’s trust fund today is worth $1.4 trillion CDN and will provide wealth for everyone for decades.

Alberta’s?

Squandered by 40 years of financially incompetent Conservative idiots.

===============

I always find this comparison interesting, but I wonder if anyone has done an actual analysis to determine what Alberta could have had they not “squandered” their oil wealth.

Norway paid for everything with really high income and sales taxes so they could build their sovereign wealth fund. Their oil companies are state owned, and they’re a sovereign state.

Alberta has low income taxes and no sales tax, their oil companies are mostly publicly owned, and their fiscal capacity is subject to equalization with the rest of Canada.

Alberta’s wealth wasn’t really squandered when you consider the benefits derived by their residents through low taxes, their companies’ shareholders derived through low royalties, and residents of Quebec and Manitoba derived through equalization. It was just “spread around”.

All they want – all they’re askin’ – is for a little respect!

#103 Shawn Allen on 10.26.19 at 12:50 pm

Climate Change – Carbon reduction

Of all the dumb arguments against action, one of the dumbest is that “Canada is less than 2% of the emissions”.

By that logic none of the 7 billion or so inhabitants of the globe should ever do anything to improve the environment or have the slightest care since the actions of any one of us amount to an average of 0.000000014% of the problem.

Classic “tragedy of the commons”. By that logic continue to spew carbon and pollute and do whatever at will.

What a horribly weak and selfish argument.

Conrad Black used it in his column today – While also claiming that Trudeau has only a weak mandate to govern (sore loser) and falsely claiming that China and India are doing nothing about climate change.

#104 MaxBerniersShorts on 10.26.19 at 12:59 pm

#90 Akashic Record
Norway also has a 25% sales tax. Let us know when Albertans are ready for that…

#105 Tony on 10.26.19 at 1:09 pm

Re: #99 Shawn Allen on 10.26.19 at 12:25 pm

1982 was the best year financially of my entire life.

#106 SoggyShorts on 10.26.19 at 1:33 pm

#89 Tammy Simms on 10.26.19 at 9:04 am
I know this is mainly an investment or forum but I hope this comment passes mustard. I mean I hope this comment does not get deleted, shut out.

I am part of a group that believes in aggressive saving. We don’t want to depend on taking more risk to achieve maybe an extra 2% to 2.5% a year so the way we look at it we save much more per month, year.

We would rather get 2.75% to 2.85% on our GIC’s and instead of saving 10% or 15% of our net income per year we decide to save 45% to 55% of our net income per year.
***************************
Why not both? We’re planning on retiring @40 and that’s only possible because we worked and saved well over 50% while investing normally and getting good returns.
GICS that pay the same as inflation (after taxes) gain you literally nothing. Wealth preservation is good, but completely ignoring the 10y doubling effect of 7% returns is extremely wasteful imo.
You can live a decent life working for money, but wealth comes from money working for you.
In practical terms, for us, it makes a 5 year difference in retirement age, and these are some pretty prime years. Who knows how many healthy ones you have?

This is why Garth preaches ETF/index investing. Yes, there is some risk of a downturn, but it’s not like you can lose it all (if the top 500 US companies go bankrupt in 1 year it’s the apocalypse and I can assure you your GICS won’t help you either)

#107 SoggyShorts on 10.26.19 at 1:57 pm

#73 John on 10.25.19 at 11:08 pm
Garth might know what to do with liquid funds in investment vehicles but he’s been saying this market is full of risk for 10 years as investors were made rich in housing.

There’s risk in the housing market but the stock market is a bubble of epic proportions because of QE infinity.

I wonder why Garth never mentions the increasing risk in stocks AND bonds when we are late in the debt cycle.

A broken clock is right twice a day. Sadly for Garth, he’s still waiting and been 10 years let alone a day.
************************************
You seem to have a reading comprehension problem. The message on this blog has very clearly always been one of balance. Not putting all of your eggs in one basket has been solid advice since forever.
So what if 2 markets out of all of Canada have managed to keep stupid high real-estate prices? For the vast majority of Canadians index investing has completely crushed RE returns for the past decade.

Imagine the opposite advice:
“Leverage yourself to the hilt, and raid the bank of mom to buy a house!”
How many readers would that have worked out for the last 10 years?
Pretty much 0% of Canadians outside of the GTA/LM, and of those within few have made the 250% return that the S&P has paid.

Despite all of that Garth has often said that there’s nothing wrong with buying a house if you can afford it.
How ridiculous would the opposite advice to that be?
“Buy things you can’t afford.. because YOLO!”?

Those of us who have listened and actually followed the advice on this blog have done quite well, thank you. Those who chose not to buy a house and didn’t save/invest were probably doomed to failure anyway.

There’s no reliable magic bullet for wealth, but steady saving, debt avoidance, and diversification has worked for almost everyone who does it and will continue to do so.

#108 Dr V on 10.26.19 at 2:23 pm

97 Thanks Flop. The last link shed some light on the situation. In that case, increased density was permitted in return for preservation of the heritage
status. I believe that in most jurisdictions this would require rezoning but according to the document council is empowered through the charter to do this. In my opinion then the development “conforms”, but they may flag it as “non conforming” for legal purposes.

While it is good to have some flexibility in bylaws, too much flexibility makes for a very convoluted process which can be very subjective.

#109 Sail Away on 10.26.19 at 2:25 pm

#91 akashic record on 10.26.19 at 9:24 am
#70 Sail Away on 10.25.19 at 10:56 pm
—————————-
No other society was more environment friendly. They didn’t preach it, they lived it.
They know that tobacco is a sacred plant, not cigarette.

———————————–

Where has any group of humans voluntarily refused to accept an easier life or personal gain?

Go visit any reservation in your province you will find some.

You can exploit tobacco because “there is a benefit to doing so” but you turn a secred plant with purpose and way of using it properly to a poison, that creates more cost, suffering than the profit from exploitation.

——————————-

Any substance that mimics or replaces dopamine has been considered ‘sacred’ by some group of humans.

Coca- check
Marijuana/hashish- check
Peyote- check
Ayahuasca- check
Alcohol- check

Don’t get too excited about spiritual messages. The reverence is due to mind-altering-ness. Anything else is just religion.

#110 Gravy Train on 10.26.19 at 2:51 pm

#95 IHCTD9 on 10.26.19 at 10:33 am
“Because if [green power] can’t [be a stand-alone system], it’s not a viable alternative. Nukes can. Coal can. Hydro can. That’s why these technologies are upstream of you feeding the grid instead of solar and wind.” By 2020, my power company forecasts its power from the following sources: wind (18%), hydro and tidal (20%), oil and natural gas (6%), biomass (1%), solid fuel (37%), biogas, solar, etc. (2%), and imports (16%). In other words, 41% of the power company’s sources of energy are coming from renewables. :)

“No, [your solar panels] don’t [produce all the power you need]. Don’t believe me? Unhook yourself from the grid and see what happens.” Why would I do that? :)

“You asked how you were not being honest – you are not admitting your solar NEEDS the grid. The grid is your battery, your ‘peaker’, and your inverter.” Of course I admit I’m connected to the grid. My power company installed the bidirectional meter on my house. My last power bill showed that I just had to pay the basic charge of $22.75, and that 787 kWh is a ‘surplus carryover’; in other words, the power company will apply a credit to my power bill when my energy consumption exceeds the solar panel’s production—likely sometime this winter. :)

“I’m thinking you just paid an outfit to put your solar in and just signed the cheque.” I signed a ‘Net Metering Class 1 Interconnection Agreement’ with my power company. :)

“You don’t seem to understand all the things the grid is doing for you.” I do understand. You fail to understand that everything I’ve done is legal. :)

#111 AGuyInVancouver on 10.26.19 at 7:17 pm

#59 palebird on 10.25.19 at 9:51 pm
Hey GuyinVancouver,

Do you actually believe anybody cares what you think? Lotusland is completely out of touch with anything. Nobody cares what people in Vancouver think.
_ _ _
Really? That must be why the leaders of all four major federal parties spent so much time in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island during the campaign vs. how little they spent in Saskatchewan.

#112 Oilaphant on 10.27.19 at 12:06 pm

“Wexit happened.” -Garth

…uuhhhhh, what?

#113 Steven Rowlandson on 10.27.19 at 1:31 pm

We know the Libs will be pushing ahead with the enhanced shared-equity mortgage, letting first-timers buy digs worth up to $800,000 in the Bubble Cities, ensuring the bubbles remain.

No problems solved here , just pandering to a genocidal hyper inflationary real estate market.