The thanksgiving

Forget Blackface. Ignore Lavalin. Who cares about Jody or Jane? Or that creepy India trip? Deficits, debts and a fake feminist in the PMO don’t matter much when you have… a job.

So the latest unemployment numbers, coming just 10 days before the federal election, make it hard for guys like Andrew Scheer to argue T2 has screwed up the economy. We gained 54,000 positions last month. On top of more than 80,000 the month before. That drives the jobless rate down to 5.5% (the lowest ever was 5.4% a few months ago), and all of the new positions were full-time. Yeah, too many in government, but a job’s a job.

The biggest number was this: 4.3%. That’s the average increase in working incomes year/year. It beats the US experience, and means with 2% inflation people are actually starting to get ahead. This was all the more impressive since economists had expected something less than 10,000 for the new-jobs number.

So, as a result (a) the loonie puffed up and so did Bay Street, (c) the odds of a Liberal re-election doubtlessly jumped and (c) you can forget about a Bank of Canada cut at the end of October. In fact, don’t be surprised if mortgage rates begin swelling again right after the Turkey Weekend.

Meanwhile more joy is coming from Washington, where Donald Trump – fresh from causing human misery, warfare and bitter disappointment in Syria – has decided he needs a political win. So on Friday emerged news of ‘significant progress’ in trade talks between America and China. It looks like new tariffs set to be imposed next week will be kaput, and the temperature in the world’s biggest economic spat will fall considerably.

Predictably, US stock markets soared hundreds of points, wiping away the October malady and putting them within a few hairs of all-time highs. American equities have gained more than 15% this year. Add in dividends, and 2019 has been a terrific one for investors, yet a miserable one for the GIC-afflicted.

So what next?

As stated, forget what anyone told you about the Bank of Canada. It does not want to lower rates, and won’t. Mr. Bond Market says so. Look what just happened to the yield on 5-year Government of Canada debt. This is the benchmark used to price five-year mortgages. Like I said, the bottom may be in.

And the Fed? If there truly is some kind of America-China deal (as this blog told you would happen), a significant dollop of risk has been removed from not only the US economy, but that of the globe. The central bank there has nipped rates twice, but indicated any further moves would be based on data. So a trade deal, a stock market surge and good jobs numbers in that country pretty much guarantee those four or five rate cuts people were talking about are pffft.

Isn’t it interesting what a few days will do?

No recession. No rate cuts. Rising mortgage costs. Stocks swelling to record levels. Insufferable investors. And deeply flawed political leaders in both countries now looking more secure than ever.

But the biggest news this weekend, of course, is Bandit’s birthday. His 15th year. How can I complain about anything?

105 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 10.11.19 at 2:56 pm

Surrendered my federal voting virginity today.

Had a few similarities with the previous time.

I didn’t know what I was supposed to do.

The other party didn’t know what they were doing.

I didn’t realize it was going to get that hot in there, therefore I couldn’t wait to peel off the excess layers of clothing.

Also, I had to get considerably drunk to go through with it…

M45BC

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.19 at 2:59 pm

Happy Birthday El Bandito!

#3 holly on 10.11.19 at 3:03 pm

Nice try… forgot to mention they were almost all in very Conservative Ontario…
Oh, and of course the Trump led US economy is the main driver of the bump in the Ont economy… but we can admit that one either.
Amazing…

#4 Bose on 10.11.19 at 3:04 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit !!!

#5 Charmaine on 10.11.19 at 3:06 pm

Happy Birthday, Bandit!

#6 PA on 10.11.19 at 3:08 pm

Happy B-day Bandit……

#7 John Brydle on 10.11.19 at 3:11 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit!

#8 Sask to AB on 10.11.19 at 3:41 pm

Happy Thanksgiving Garth and Dorothy.
Happy Birthday Bandit!

#9 LP on 10.11.19 at 3:41 pm

Aw, what a great photo! And, Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Just got back from an over-nighter to North Bay…what a gorgeous province Ontario is in the autumn. The colours are spectacular but they’ve already had a heavy frost so the leaves are falling. Get a move on or you’ll miss the show.

#10 Stan Brooks on 10.11.19 at 3:48 pm

It is a statistical game.

1. The job numbers will be revised down as always, it is election time.. of course they lie.

2. That ‘peak’ year over year wage increase will result in less than 3 % averaged yearly wage increase, less than 2 % net increase; with real inflation above 6-8 %.

And yes, there will be rate cuts, the direction is strongly down.

—————————————

Bottom line: If the economy was ‘so great’ why is not interest rates at least at 4-6 %, maybe even 8 % ?

Because it is one big, giant lie.
Run.

#11 leebow on 10.11.19 at 3:48 pm

Dogs are true. Unlike someone who is 90% socks.

The Lavalin scene yesterday was just brilliant. Trudeau’s detached look. Giving Blanchet a black eye just because. Golden. Scheer delivered.

#12 Dio Porco on 10.11.19 at 3:49 pm

The Libs can thank Trump for the bump in the economy. Imagine how much larger the gains will be with a Conservative government.

SCHEER 2019

#13 Sail away on 10.11.19 at 3:53 pm

Time to sell gold and bonds, and buy preferred shares.

#14 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 10.11.19 at 4:00 pm

Happy birthday Bandit
many happy returns

#15 Leo on 10.11.19 at 4:05 pm

Does he know who’s a good boy?
…ya he is.

#16 Mike on 10.11.19 at 4:07 pm

Happy birthday, Bandit! Here’s to many more.

#17 Basil Exposition on 10.11.19 at 4:12 pm

Happy 15th birthday Bandit. So loyal and beautiful. Cheers to you and your family.

#18 Smartalox on 10.11.19 at 4:17 pm

Garth, as a former Minister for national revenue, what is the preferred philosophy when it comes to taxation?

Collecting more tax per person from fewer people?
Collecting less tax per person, but from more people?

#19 Dave on 10.11.19 at 4:21 pm

In BC there has been a significant reduction in jobs in Forestry and housing construction. Between those two, our jobs numbers should be horrible but somehow look good and shiny? What gives?

Massive layoffs from sawmills and construction but all is ok because our province is very diversified. I call BS – BC numbers are wrong.

#20 WUL on 10.11.19 at 4:22 pm

All good economic news. Not so much in Fort McMurray where, at least, it is a beautiful day. “Binge to Bust” – Calgary Herald:

https://calgaryherald.com/commodities/energy/from-binge-to-bust-a-canadian-oil-town-lines-up-at-the-food-bank/wcm/0a8c1e40-c54f-428f-ad22-73621e50f4dd

Happy 15th Bandit!

#21 I'm off to early vote ... on 10.11.19 at 4:23 pm

today. And cherish the opportunity to do so. Hope for a big turnout. Give the old dog a bone … or maybe something softer …

#22 Canadian Moose on 10.11.19 at 4:25 pm

Awwwww! Happy Birthday Bandit and Happy Thanksgiving to Garth & Family and the Greater Fool community.

Cheers from the Hinterland!

#23 Mattl on 10.11.19 at 4:25 pm

15 years is amazing, I can only hope our Lab makes it that long.

Go Bandit!

#24 Incubus on 10.11.19 at 4:39 pm

“Isn’t it interesting what a few days will do?”

But one swallow does not make a summer.

#25 Asterix1 on 10.11.19 at 4:46 pm

Job numbers are a scam! Imagine if the USA had 540,000 jobs created last month and 840,000 the month before!

Jobs created in Canada are public sector jobs and self-employed. Private sector job creation is just not there.

Statscam!

#26 Bill Grable on 10.11.19 at 5:04 pm

Happy Birthday, Bandit!
Mr. Turner, he is a really beautiful dog. :-)

Some things are more important than money.

#27 Shawn Allen on 10.11.19 at 5:06 pm

Interest Rate Bottom?

“Like I said, the bottom may be in.”

*************************************
This interest rate cycle has had more bottoms called out than 10 years of the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition.

But the next year, there always seems to be an even better bottom.

I hope this is the last bottom for a while.

#28 the Awakened One on 10.11.19 at 5:07 pm

Happy Birthday bear-faced Bandito ! :-D

You should move to the north pole where your fluffy cousins roam free… Run away Bandit: let Ol’ Garth chase you thru the snow… wouldn’t that be a sight?

#29 Cassandra on 10.11.19 at 5:08 pm

There may be a truce or temporary deal. The friction with China will not end. It will be the story of this century like the Cold War was for the latter half of the last.

China’s goals are to dominate the Eurasian continent. Don’t be misled. Warfare isn’t set piece tank battles anymore. It’s subversion, economic warfare, incitement, cyber, theft etc. Just because there is a truce or armistice doesn’t mean the war is over.

We’re here to make dough, not fight. – Garth

#30 jess on 10.11.19 at 5:16 pm

the market will really go up when trump is gone
======
maybe this should be rethought
published on
Friday, October 11, 2019
by
Informed Comment
How ‘Citizens United’ Decision Paved Way for Giuliani’s Clients Parnas and Fruman to Buy influence in America
by
Juan Cole

They donated big sums to other PACs via their corporate personhood, funneling money from the Ukraine and $1 million from one Russian businessman alone. Citizens United allowed them to operate anonymously and to give as much as they liked (or as their foreign patrons liked).

They also used GEF to influence Republican congressman Pete Sessions to write a letter to secretary of state Mike Pompeo, demanding that he fire the US ambassador to the Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.

They also did illegal fundraisers for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, helping him win the governorship.

Ghost corporations, the ownership of which is opaque, can be set up precisely for the purpose of contributing to super-PACs.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/11/how-citizens-united-decision-paved-way-giulianis-clients-parnas-and-fruman-buy

#31 Linda on 10.11.19 at 5:22 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit! Hope I look that good when I become a senior citizen:)

My cynical self (who ‘advance’ voted today) wonders about the timing of that robust jobs number. Since it is obvious that our politicians will shamelessly bribe us with our own money to stay in power, makes one wonder what other manipulation they might indulge in with the same goal in mind. Will be interesting to read about monthly job numbers post election. They should be up due to holiday hiring but if they aren’t…

Now to return to giving thanks for family, friends, life, liberty & the right to vote. Happy Thanksgiving!

#32 Stats Look Positive on 10.11.19 at 5:24 pm

The PM must be happy with an election day coming soon, and am sure we will be hearing about it too. I heard a rumour that the civil servants worked some overtime to get those stats just right. They were busy in section B of the Ministry of Truth.

#33 conan on 10.11.19 at 5:39 pm

They had to say something, the Middle East is going into End of Days mode. The drone attack on the SA oil facilities was a major embarrassment/provocation. Today we had a large Iranian tanker come under missile attack , and just recently, an American Outpost in Syria just got the message missile.

The Turkish army has invaded Northern Syria…… normally just one of these events is enough to cause the markets to sell off.

I expect Tuesday to be a very big sell off. Today was an institutional buy in. The powers that be are playing the world’s financial markets like a yo yo.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.19 at 5:42 pm

@#25 Asterix The Gall
“Jobs created in Canada are public sector jobs and self-employed. Private sector job creation is just not there.”

*****

Well, SOMEONE painted all those rainbow sidewalks.

Oh and “Self Employed”…. IS the private sector.

#35 FreeBird on 10.11.19 at 5:45 pm

No matter how talented, wealthy or famous you are how you treat animals tells me all I need to know. Animals are better then humans in so many ways (esp dogs) and here long before us.

Happy 15th to Bandit. Looks very comfy in mom’s arms. The way it should be.

#36 The Wet One on 10.11.19 at 5:48 pm

Also, the home I bought a year ago is not worth $10-15K more than what I paid for it, in Edmonton no less.

It’s all good.

Good times.

I got paid almost $10,000 in dividends this year as well.

Good times indeed!

#37 raisemyrent on 10.11.19 at 5:49 pm

nice writing, Garth… and congrats to Bandit!

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 10.11.19 at 5:49 pm

So the whole trade war will end up being classic Trump: a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

-No deal with North Korea
-No Border Wall
-Still have troops in Syria and more on their way to Saudi Arabia

Trump is a failure on every level.

#39 Tony on 10.11.19 at 5:52 pm

Bank of Canada rate cut coming this October 30th. PMI down the drain, fake jobs numbers. No trade deal whatsoever between America and China. U.S. stock market to tank next week after the holiday.

#40 Phylis on 10.11.19 at 5:54 pm

The lost Shwa jobs will revert that puffy number towards the mean in a couple of months.

#41 Tony on 10.11.19 at 5:55 pm

Re: #33 conan on 10.11.19 at 5:39 pm

They’re just propping up the U.S. market for earnings season and the last week of November will see a huge drop in U.S. stocks. You can quote me on the last week of November.

#42 Smartalox on 10.11.19 at 5:57 pm

So Andrew Scheer released the Conservatives’ election 2019 platform in BC today: https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/10/11/scheer-fiscal-plan-budget/

Packed with $53 Billion worth of Doug Ford style spending cuts, it’s not much of a surprise that the platform was released on a Friday afternoon, immediately before the start of a long weekend.

Do you think that he waited until after 4pm Eastern time in the hopes that nobody in Ontario would notice?

This tactic of making unfavourable announcements late on Fridays before long weekends – called ‘taking out the trash’ – was perfected under the Harper government.

Well at least Scheer’s team managed to get a platform out, so they can say that their plan to run the country isn’t just an afterthought.

Too bad I didn’t get a chance to read it, before I went and voted this morning.

Maybe that’s what he learned in Insurance school: fill their heads with pictures of how rich they’ll be, slide the brochure across the table. Be sure to pat the brochure while smiling and making eye contact.

Just don’t let ’em actually read the fine print of the policy, or let them think about it too much, or you’ll NEVER get them to commit!

#43 Sail away on 10.11.19 at 6:04 pm

#36 Tony on 10.11.19 at 5:52 pm

Bank of Canada rate cut coming this October 30th. PMI down the drain, fake jobs numbers. No trade deal whatsoever between America and China. U.S. stock market to tank next week after the holiday.

————————————

Tony, you’re always making predictions. I believe a while back you advised to short the US market in November 2019.

If you’re wrong next week and/or in November, will you stop predicting?

#44 paracho on 10.11.19 at 6:09 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit !

#45 Rargary on 10.11.19 at 6:13 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit! 15 years? For a large dog? That does deserve honourable mention! He may have arthritis. If so, needs pain meds the rest of his dog years. I found out recently how cats and dogs 10 yeaes and older suffer in silence with chronic, very painful arthritis. Sure Garth on top of it but putting it out there for the other blog dogs. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

#46 FreeBird on 10.11.19 at 6:14 pm

China’s new Silk/Belt and Road initiative…
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007059/dominance-or-development-whats-end-chinas-new-silk-road

https://amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/specialreports/the-new-silk-road-chinas-campaign-to-dominate-the-global-economy-903212.html

Doc films (good weekend to watch)…
https://youtu.be/gfjikX5ZKLk
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cUxw9Re-Z-E

Early voting this weekend. No?

#47 espressobob on 10.11.19 at 6:29 pm

As a retail investor noise is what it is and things generally move upwards. A friend texted something interesting but dated. I felt compelled to share.

https://www.foxnews.com/story/common-sense-rip

#48 Steven Rowlandson on 10.11.19 at 6:42 pm

“Deficits, debts and a fake feminist in the PMO don’t matter much when you have… a job.”

Yes, it is easy to look the other way and see the sunny side of life if one is wealthy and or well paid. On the other hand if you have work at market wage rates and variable hours then one might not be so well paid and might tend to view the world with a more critical eye.

#49 Shawn on 10.11.19 at 6:50 pm

The FED and the BOC will both cut 25 bps in October

#50 Grey Dog on 10.11.19 at 6:56 pm

Bandit…happy birthday! An extra dog treat for you on your birthday for being such a great companion!!!

Happy Thanksgiving to all the other dogs!

I’m going to get a head start and vote this weekend.

#51 Mike on 10.11.19 at 7:03 pm

To bad about the americans backing off on new tariffs on China. That communist totalitarian police state needs to be contained. Its very myopic of western liberal democracies to trade with China, once they have leverage, they will turn the screws on us. The sad thing us that western neo-liberals and libertarians only value money and business and don’t see the long term damage that worldview has on the working class.

#52 Garth Ludwig on 10.11.19 at 7:10 pm

How are the job #’s derived? Are they from income tax submittals? If so when are the negative numbers (job losses) equated? What about self employment. Very frustrating to get so random number pushed at you with no willingness to explain the formula behind it.

#53 Shawn Allen on 10.11.19 at 7:18 pm

The new taxation Rules

In 1773 (246 years ago) the colonists dumped the tea in Boston Harbour and protested “No Taxation Without Representation”

Fast forward to today and Garth claims 40% tax filers pay no net tax after considering child tax benefit adn GST and whatever else.

With an election pending, should those who actually pay net tax protest “No representation without taxation?”

Probably not a slogan that will catch on.

#54 Canada on 10.11.19 at 7:30 pm

Canada has never been in a position of strength with USA, and won’t be with China either. We have lost our way by being neutral, diplomats, and peace keepers because that was our strength with the world. We had respect from all, but not anymore.

#55 Yukon Elvis on 10.11.19 at 7:35 pm

DELETED

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.19 at 7:37 pm

@#32 Stats and more stats
” They were busy in section B of the Ministry of Truth….”
+++++

Nowhere near the Dept of Political Correctness where all who enter must swear an Oath of Hypocrisy while packing and mailing thousands of pink T-shirts….

#57 Sunny South on 10.11.19 at 7:37 pm

Dear Mr. Turner,
First, Happy B-day to Bandit as he has certainly earned it. Our rescues have never made it the far… To date that is.
As stated before I have tried to follow you advice for long before your blog, going back to purchasing and reading your books and attending your seminars. And for the most part have been successful.
However, in reading your comments I’ve noticed a distinct disrespect/hatred towards government employees.
I do not know from whence this negativity comes however as a person who has recently completed 29 years of hell as a public service employee I can tell you first hand that it is anything but plush.
You have a total of what? 8 years in public service total. You disagreed with your boss and what happened?
Now, to quote John Lennon, just imagine if you had to suck it up for 3 decades and on top of that perform a job that requires you to make life altering decisions every day while constantly understaffed. Could you have completed such a feat? I think not. Just MHO

#58 TC on 10.11.19 at 7:42 pm

“Predictably, US stock markets soared hundreds of points, wiping away the October malady and putting them within a few hairs of all-time highs. American equities have gained more than 15% this year. Add in dividends, and 2019 has been a terrific one for investors, yet a miserable one for the GIC-afflicted.”

I’m not complaining……………I’m also making a lot of money with investments this year but the U.S./China trade pause phase one deal is a well timed distraction in my opinion. I think everybody, so far, is missing the worlds debt troubles brewing on the back burner as evidenced in the repo market lately. The problem that started the crisis in ’07 was that people thought they could create wealth by selling residential real estate to one another forever. Now the problem is that people think they can get rich by trading debt instruments with one another forever. The problem in both instances is that the debt instruments and underlying collateral ultimately find their true value, the price that buyers will actually pay. A line script in the movie Market Call said it best…..”There are 3 ways to make money in this business……be 1st……..be smarter…….or cheat”. Something has blown up somewhere and I think someone else has decided to go first!

#59 Shawn Allen on 10.11.19 at 7:45 pm

How accurate is the jobs report?

#52 Garth Ludwig on 10.11.19 at 7:10 pm

How are the job #’s derived? Are they from income tax submittals? If so when are the negative numbers (job losses) equated? What about self employment. Very frustrating to get so random number pushed at you with no willingness to explain the formula behind it.

******************************
It’s a survey of households. There is information on the Stats Can web site but you probably have to dig around to find it. It is only an estimate and is indeed subject to significant statistical error (like plus or minus 28,000 I believe). On top of that if the survey is not a perfect random sample (and of course it’s not perfect) the potential errors get bigger. On top of that the seasonal adjusting adds another possible source of error. It absolutely needs to be seasonally adjusted but that is a process subject to estimation).

Any one month can’t be trusted but the fact is that the results over the first nine months of 2019 are very good. It can’t be denied.

I believe Dolce Vita will weigh in and claim the survey is total crap. He is wrong. It might be crappy for one month but over time it probably does a reasonable job.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191011/dq191011a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#60 Nonplused on 10.11.19 at 7:53 pm

15 years is a good run for a large dog and Bandit has been very lucky to have you as his loving servant. I mean owner. I’m not sure which way it works. I myself have used the phrase “I have to go early to let the dog out”. Sometimes gladly, sometimes not. But anyway dogs are great. (So are cats too if you want or need real and effective mouse control.) But get a rescue if you can. If you get a rescue pup, it’s just as good as any other dog subject to your training. And older ones are often just as good and well trained they just ended up in a bad spot through no fault of their own. I used to think my ex-wife was heartless and cruel until she started fostering rescues. That’s when it dawned on me that it was just me she hated.

—————-

So, back to the topic of 50% of the population being below average IQ (when average IQ is already scary enough), and back to the plastic straw peeve: When you go to McDonald’s for a yummy Quarter Pounder meal, how much of the packaging that is headed for the landfill is actually the plastic straw for the drink? 2%? I am sure the lid is more. How many straws do people actually buy as a percentage of everything else that they put in the shopping cart at Walmart that is headed for the landfill? Why are plastic straws bad but k-cups are good? I think this hysteria looks a lot like renewable energy, where we think 2% makes a meaningful difference despite significant inconvenience. And additional costs. I heard it said once that the environmental impact of anything you buy is pretty closely related to the price of it because every major input is either labor or energy. Plastic straws? 0.5 cents. Paper? 4 cents. That means somewhere down the line it takes 8 times the energy input to make a paper straw as a plastic one. And paper straws suck.

#61 Troy McClure on 10.11.19 at 8:02 pm

Happy birthday, Bandit!

#62 Dolce Vita on 10.11.19 at 8:07 pm

On the September 2019 Labour Force Survey…well here is a statistically significant poll about its believability from a less than favorite of this Blog’s Author:

https://i.imgur.com/sVvwiAo.jpg

The again, judge for yourselves. This is from StatCan’s Labour Force Survey site “Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months” where you can slice, dice their data (link below). A few notes first:

1. Unadjusted = actual, raw data collected.
2. Seasonally Adjusted = Unadjusted “churned” thru their ARIMA statistical program (i.e., statistically “massaged”).

You need only look at the “Employment” row to determine job gains/losses (of course, compare the Seasonally Adjusted to the Actual Unadjusted data collected, for the heck of it):

Canada
https://i.imgur.com/V7CN1oU.jpg

Ontario
https://i.imgur.com/OVVKSTf.jpg

Quebec
https://i.imgur.com/7Ra0Juu.jpg

BC:
https://i.imgur.com/8wVquRb.jpg

AB:
https://i.imgur.com/N6oVUDY.jpg

Nova Scotia (since CBC Business said “Big gains for Ontario, Nova Scotia”):
https://i.imgur.com/uwkR6Wv.jpg

StatCan Labour Force Survey link for the above data (learn to slice, dice the data on your own):
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701

——————————————-

And the July 2019 GDP was not 0%, it was -0.1% using StatCan’s own data:
https://i.imgur.com/Ob6rqoJ.jpg?1

Since GDP is “Seasonally Adjusted” it was probably worse than -0.1% (pretty sure you will have figured that out on your own at this juncture).

——————————————-

People that parrot the Canadian MSM which in turn parrot StatCan “The Daily”…ascertain for yourselves the:

worthiness of what they have to say.

And in the end, their willingness to seek out the “Unadjusted” truth for you.

#63 Drill Baby Drill on 10.11.19 at 8:07 pm

Bandit looks absolutely loveable.

#64 Gulf Breeze on 10.11.19 at 8:13 pm

#51 Mike,

China is no longer Communist in practise. It is much more Fascist. In that way it resembles Russia and to a large degree, the U.S as well.

#65 Ju-uhh-uhh-uhh-stin Blackface on 10.11.19 at 8:18 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit – Sunny Ways to you, my pooch!

#66 PastThePeak on 10.11.19 at 8:25 pm

What’s next?

The coming stock surge will be the last in this cycle. Do with that as you will…

#67 PastThePeak on 10.11.19 at 8:27 pm

…and best wishes to Bandit! My own Alfie is a spry 9 year old by comparison…

#68 popeye the sailor man on 10.11.19 at 8:30 pm

Happy birthday bandit.

#69 Long-Time Lurker on 10.11.19 at 8:34 pm

Happy birthday, Bandit!

Where has Dolce Vita been?

I read somewhere that Italy issued a debt instrument in USD. I think it was someone’s tweet.

Hmm?

#70 Good Sam on 10.11.19 at 8:37 pm

This is a HD movie that’s classified as a Classic Drama, but its wrong because its a comedy. I have never had so many laughs. Enjoy for an uplifting evening at the movies tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHhBel2WqVI

#71 Long-Time Lurker on 10.11.19 at 8:47 pm

BUSINESS NEWS
OCTOBER 9, 2019 / 10:22 AM / 2 DAYS AGO

Italy raises $7 billion with first U.S. dollar bond since 2010

Yoruk Bahceli, Giuseppe Fonte

LONDON/ROME (Reuters) – Italy raised $7 billion on Wednesday with its first U.S. dollar bond in nearly a decade, a move that helps to diversify funding sources for the world’s third-biggest public debtor….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-bonds-idUSKBN1WO2A8

#72 acdel on 10.11.19 at 8:57 pm

Jobs gained; ha, fake news. Makes no difference to most Canadians; all looks good before an election. The real news if Trump is re-elected these short term deals with China will disappear the minute he is sworn in again. Gotta love/hate politics!

Anyways, bionic Bandit; enjoy chewing on that new treat Dorothy and Garth spoiled you with along with that down filled blanket. Now, that is enjoying life!

#73 Nonplused on 10.11.19 at 9:02 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wework-bailout-could-be-imminent-cash-runs-out

I never could see how this was going to work out. It was just a real-estate bail out. If I can work from home using nothing but a laptop and a phone, maybe a second screen, why in the heck would I rent office space??? WeWork was never anything more than an unemployed singles dating environment, and a prop for under-utilized office space. And a financial fraud. The whole thing is coming unglued now that folks are wising up to the fact that people that don’t have jobs don’t want to rent office space, and people who do have jobs but can work remotely, work from home, and thus also don’t want to rent office space.

Office space is a declining industry. It’s already way over-built for anything that will be required in the future as more and more people realize they only need 80 square feet to work from home and companies realize it is much cheaper to do it that way than rent them space for a cubicle. PS it also helps with global warming as only one building (the home) needs to be heated, and the commute is about 20 feet on foot rather than 15 km in a car.

Don’t buy office based commercial real-estate. It has only one way to go, down. Eventually it will mostly all be turned into condos that have little offices in them.

#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.11.19 at 9:09 pm

#42 Smartalox on 10.11.19 at 5:57 pm sez:

“So Andrew Scheer released the Conservatives’ election 2019 platform in BC today: https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/10/11/scheer-fiscal-plan-budget/

Packed with $53 Billion worth of Doug Ford style spending cuts, it’s not much of a surprise that the platform was released on a Friday afternoon, immediately before the start of a long weekend.”
————————————–
LOL. “Doug Ford style tax cuts”. Is that what you got from the linked article?

Liberal Shill.

#75 IA on 10.11.19 at 9:18 pm

Happy Bday Badit!

#76 Yanniel on 10.11.19 at 9:18 pm

Feliz cumpleaños Bandit.

#77 Dolce Vita on 10.11.19 at 9:35 pm

#70 Long-Time Lurker

Here I am.

As for Italian Bond issue:

Why ALL my money is in Canada. Good bless the Global free flow of funds electronically.

Italian economy a basket case, perpetual recession, since they adopted the €.

Then again, they are in good company as of late with Germany, UK and France (practically speaking) near or in recession (so their Central Banks say and/or warn).

And, Lefty me hates to say this, BUT:

God bless Orange Man…since Canada suckles upon an American teet for its prosperity.

——————————–

BTW, Sept. 2019 Job Losses in Canada were:

-69.1K

using actual, raw data from StatCan (do some visual “ciphering” from my prior post).

Any thinking person must by now know that “Seasonally Adjusted” data from StatCan is Science Fiction.

I mean, how do you turn -69.1K into +54K?

Beats me and I used to teach Stats (and StatCan do not publish their ARIMA stats program methodology online…I wonder why not?).

Still, StatCan cannot fool the good people of Canada (THE most highly educated lot on Planet Earth), again this poll on the Sept. 2019 job numbers “believability”:

https://i.imgur.com/sVvwiAo.jpg

Another reason why my money remains in Canada and NOT in Italia.

#78 Entrepreneur on 10.11.19 at 9:35 pm

Happy Birthday, Bandit and many more!

Jobs: Didn’t Elizabeth May say that Renewable/Green Energy will bring “lots and lots of jobs?” And we really cannot ignore the science anymore and the stats and the new records.

And didn’t she say the three party leaders (Liberals, Conservatives, NDP) don’t come close to her environmental stats or similar.

To me it seems to me that Elizabeth May is the Honest One.

On the news today they said BC is in a job slump.

#79 Tony on 10.11.19 at 9:37 pm

So what? How long can Canada’s absurd government spending create jobs in the face of an 80% drop in foreign investment in the past 4 years?

Elect Trudeau and say good bye to Alberta.

#80 Dolce Vita on 10.11.19 at 9:56 pm

#59 Shawn Allen

Never put your faith in a methodology of calculation you do not understand NOR know how the calculations are made (“Seasonally Adjusted” = Unadjusted “churned” thru ARIMA a Stats program used by StatCan with no published data as to how its Algorithm functions).

Thus, the actual or raw data (Unadjusted) is the more believable.

Occam’s Razor.

As evidence (and my personal favorite) here is Retail Trade Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted for the past 5 years (which line is easiest to explain?):

https://i.imgur.com/EUu9kFG.png

To wit, in the above farcical World of StatCan Seasonally Adjusted Retail Trade, there are virtually no seasonal differences when it comes to:

1. Back to School purchases.
2. Christmas purchases.
3. January claw back in spending due to X-Mas excesses.
4. Canadians emerging from hibernation in Spring to garden, get married and pay for Summer vacations.
5. Valentine’s Day cheapskates (could not resist).

#81 will on 10.11.19 at 9:56 pm

everybody hates trump. i don’t know why. i mean every time he tweets he creates trading opportunities. what’s wrong with that?

and everybody hates Justin. i don’t know why. the whole cannabis thing was a gift to the investment community. the primary market in particular, but the secondary market as well. with fewer and fewer companies to invest in and trade, i’m ok with that, though i haven’t bought nor even researched any cannabis companies.

#82 will on 10.11.19 at 10:04 pm

i voted today. i voted for what i think is the most conservative party. mister scheer and the so-called Conservative Party was excluded from my list as not credible.

#83 Millennial Realist on 10.11.19 at 10:05 pm

Paleo Boomers become irrelevant in:

11 Days and Counting………..

#84 Dolce Vita on 10.11.19 at 10:28 pm

A final word on:

StatCan “Seasonally Adjusted” data.

I beat up on them a lot about this since it bears no resemblance to Unadjusted or the actual raw data gathered.

Having said that, StatCan ALSO publish the Unadjusted data, you just need to know where to look for it and how to properly peruse the data.

For the latter, I COMMEND StatCan. Someone there believes in data transparency.

Why I DO NOT like is that they ONLY publish and talk about their suspect Seasonally Adjusted data – “The Daily” at the StatCan website:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/index-eng.htm?HPA=1

Unfortunately and for whatever reason, our Cdn. MSM take “The Daily” manifesto and PARROT it in its near entirety and to give the semblance of some “investigative” journalism they throw in a chart they made themselves, though, based on the StatCan manifesto data.

The Cdn MSM do Canadians a disservice by not asking “where is this adjusted data coming from, HOW was it adjusted and is that believable”? Called Investigative Journalism, a lost art it would seem.

And this is egregious when you consider that the GDP, Labour Force Survey and Retail Trade Reports are parroted using Seasonally Adjusted data – KEY INDICATORS as to the health of the Canadian economy…and investors want to know the truth for obvious reasons.

Why I am so critical of StatCan and yet, PRAISE them for data transparency, the latter you must hunt for and have a working knowledge of what is possible with Pivot Tables and Cube slice and dice methods.

‘Outta here.

#85 Dr V on 10.11.19 at 10:50 pm

18 Smartalox

Bodybuilder: “How do I get big and strong? Lift light weights for many reps or lift heavy weights for fewer reps?”

Cyclist: “How do I get faster? Easier gears at a high
cadence or harder gears at a lower cadence?”

Answers are

1)Lift heavy weights for high reps and
2) Harder gears at a higher cadence

The answer is now clear.

#86 Mikeshouse on 10.11.19 at 10:52 pm

Happy birthday Bandit!

Fifteen years and what a handsome fellow you have become.

#87 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.19 at 11:43 pm

Happy Bday!

Remember any ad hominem attack can be equally reciprocated. “The Insurance Guy” and “Mr. Dual Citizen” ain’t lookin’ so hot now…

#88 Dumb Wealth on 10.12.19 at 12:33 am

Stay on target guys. Have a plan and stick to it. Diversify. And stop obsessing over the day to day fluctuations.

https://dumbwealth.com/20-wealth-tips-from-real-financial-professionals/

#89 willinsc on 10.12.19 at 12:58 am

Happy Birthday Bandit

#90 jefferson on 10.12.19 at 1:03 am

Hey Garth, haven’t posted in a while not that I ever did much.. but always checking in here for the wisdom…

I know you aren’t the biggest cat fan in the world but my little buddy also passed the 15 year mark…congrats to Bandit and enjoy the nice sea air little guy …. time seems to fly by for us humans, but we can learn a lot from how our pets just live for the moment or the next treat etc. lol.

Been reading for about 5-7 years, quite a weird ride in the hot real estate markets…saw my value triple in my inherited family home from 2004 to 2017…got out partly based on your advice and am forever grateful.

Have been happily renting and investing since….I was able to lock in to a great new 3 bedroom rental in in East Gwillimbury ON for about $1700, and haven’t looked back.

#91 Flamed out in Kitchener on 10.12.19 at 2:16 am

Happy 15th Bandit! Here’s to many more, and many more happy and special moments.
Have a wonderful thanksgiving!

#92 Fortune500 on 10.12.19 at 2:59 am

Happy birthday Bandit!

#93 Smoking Man on 10.12.19 at 4:34 am

Happy Birthday Bandint. we took Sophie to Vegas for her 11th Birth Day.

Dogs Rock…

#94 Ohcanadaiweep on 10.12.19 at 4:41 am

A jobs a job? No, government hires are debt and pandering, not jobs.

#95 Sam on 10.12.19 at 7:00 am

Happy Birthday Bandit !!!!!

#96 MF on 10.12.19 at 7:53 am

82 will on 10.11.19 at 10:04

So basically a throwaway vote that will help elect the Liberals. Got it.

What makes the conservatives not conservative?

MF

#97 MF on 10.12.19 at 7:56 am

94 Ohcanadaiweep on 10.12.19 at 4

Sure troll.

Haven’t read anything positive ever from one of this troll’s posts.

In Canada, to fail and complain means you really have to go out of your way to try to be a failure.

This poster is Approaching Stan quality in very short order.

MF

#98 Yabba Dabba Bubba on 10.12.19 at 8:51 am

Trump is winning, like it nor not.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/cramer-on-trump-vs-china-hate-him-or-like-him-he-has-them-where-he-wants-them.html

Yup. Globalists suck. Climate fraud, you’re next.

#99 maxx on 10.12.19 at 8:58 am

@ #40

Agree. Timing, as they say, is everything.

#100 maxx on 10.12.19 at 9:06 am

@ #41

Uh oh, what about the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.19 at 9:35 am

@#83 Millennial Millions in Debt
‘Paleo Boomers become irrelevant in:
11 Days and Counting………..”

+++++

As you count down to Brownface’s re-election in a minority govt, enjoy the irony of the downward spiralling dollar and debt….
Dont be too smug yet my millenial mewler.

The Federal election here is no different than most elections of the past 5 years all over the planet.
Minority coalition govts that last a few years of squabbling backstabbing crap.
Hopefully long enough for either the Cons to rid themselves of Andrew Who and the Libs to rid themselves of Justin Two Faces.

But just keep pretending your vote counts.
Its very amusing.

#102 Dharma Bum on 10.12.19 at 9:46 am

Thanks for catching me up on the world’s financial situation.
With the beautiful weather, and all, over the last couple of days, I got carried away with my Margarita drinking.

#103 Blackdog on 10.12.19 at 9:58 am

Beautiful, happy dog. I wish they could all be as well-loved and taken care of.

Happy B-Day, Bandit!

#104 holly on 10.12.19 at 12:21 pm

Top R/E Bubble City’s…

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/which-cities-have-highest-risk-housing-bubble

#105 Cici on 10.12.19 at 1:57 pm

Happy Birthday Bandit!

I give thanks to Garth, Dorothy, Ryan, Doug, Sinan, etc.

And Happy Thanksgiving to all the blawg dogs too.