Boo

What is it about October? Volatile weather. Volatile markets. Elections. Shorter days. Falling leaves. These are weeks when investors brace for a financial roller-coaster ride.

For well over a century this month has sucked. Stock market gyrations during October have averaged 38% more than any other slice of the calendar. The biggest, scariest declines have happened here– back in 1929 (Oct. 28 – 13%), again in 1987 (Oct. 19 – 22%) and once again in 2008 (Oct. 15 – 8%).

Nobody really knows why. It’s just a thing. Maybe the autumn makes us think about change. Perhaps it’s worry about the coming winter. Or the sight of people dressed up in Donald Trump masks extorting candy.

When you think about it, no shortage of reasons to be morose. Washington just escalated the war with China by blacklisting tech companies. Brexit is blowing up along with Bojo. The new boss at the IMF is warning of a global slowdown. Manufacturing data is weak. Turkey, Syria, Iran and Hong Kong. Adele’s preparing to tour.

But at the same time the economy’s growing in NA. Unemployment in the world’s biggest economy has plunged to a 50-year low. Central banks are adding stimulus again. Inflation is weak. Mortgages are cheap. Corporate profits are okay. Stock markets are near record highs. Investors have had a great 2019 so far.

Should you get all bent out of shape over the 20-odd days left in the month? Is it worth going to cash to avoid the October Effect?

Hmm. Human nature might nudge you in that direction, but this would probably be dumb. For a number of reasons.

First, market corrections are temporary. They pass. Look at what happened last Christmas, then the months following. Anyone selling at that moment turned paper losses into real ones. Bad idea. Just chill. Second, the danger of missing good days is greater than the safety of avoiding bad ones. If a person with ten grand to invest 15 years ago stuck it in an S&P 500 index fund and ignored fluctuations, they’d have $30,000 now. If they tried to time the market, avoiding the worst days but also missing 10 of the best days, they’d have $15,000. The lesson has been proven over and again – the best time to invest is when you have the money.

Third, cash is trash. Look at this rate schedule I captured while in the TD Bank to use the washroom earlier today. Pathetic:

Inflation these days is 2% and about to rock higher after October 21st. Plus, money invested in a non-registered account yields taxable returns. That means most people would have to earn at least 4% interest just to break even in the short term, and you can’t even get that by locking up money for five years in a GIC where you must pay tax on cash not yet received.

Daily interest accounts, HISAs or term deposits don’t even come close to providing people with the returns they need to finance their futures. So pity the uneducated, risk-riddled people who get talked into ‘safe’ investments by [email protected] When money is giving you less than inflation and taxes take, you’re bleeding to death. Do not let the fear of loss hobble you.

Fourth, what stock markets do is interesting but hardly earth-moving for people with balanced portfolios. If you maintain 40% of your portfolio in fixed income assets, like bond or preferred ETFs, plus throw in some REITs, and have the correct weightings among Canadian, American and international equity markets, the Dow’s a minor deal. Bonds go up when equities fall. Dividends keep rolling in from the prefs and REIT tenants must their rents.

Fifth, no stocks. No individual equities should be in most people’s accounts, only ETFs. This helps shield you from the volatility caused when trendy weed stocks tank, profitless app companies blow up or there’s a Nortel/Blackberry/Enron implosion. Picking stocks is gambling. Using ETFs is investing. Your choice.

Remember human nature is the enemy. Fear and greed lead us into temptation and regret. Rarely to profit or safety. Build a portfolio with the correct weightings, invest when you have the funds, then fuggeddaboutit.

It’s only scary when you look.

 

117 comments ↓

#1 Stan Brooks on 10.08.19 at 4:49 pm

Banks are laughing at the savers, courtesy of the incompetents at BoC. 0.05 % interest (on balance of 60 000!) + huge fees for everything….

Inflation aka ‘cost of living’ is at least 6-8 %, look at grocery, rents, electricity, education. Maybe even more.

The bastardized CPI has nothing to do with inflation or cost of living, it is made for dummkopfs who think they are superior to others.

And whatever is giving you less than inflation is not money.

#2 Linda on 10.08.19 at 4:49 pm

Love the dog picture of the day:) Looking forward to having the upcoming election in the rear view mirror. Have been perusing the various platforms & given the choices, will pick the party I think will do the least harm. Nope, won’t be the party that offers the most goodies! Least harm in my view includes fiscal & frankly the cost of the promises being made is ‘not sustainable’. Like Christmas, everyone will forget the ‘joy of giving’ when the credit card bill comes due in January!

#3 weatherologist on 10.08.19 at 4:52 pm

And keep yourself away from performances of #Grimaceta

#4 marcus on 10.08.19 at 4:53 pm

Finally. As I mentioned a few days ago the woman in the blackface photo would potentially be Justin’s “Monica moment”. The story is dropping today. Drip drip drip. Justin has so many skeletons from his early 20’s. Some of them are deemed permissible in today’s society while others are still a third rail. This should get good! She was a minor. She entered the school a year ahead and Justin’s goose is cooked. The Chronicle’s sources claim that political observers had been anticipating an expose in Saturday’s Globe and Mail. However, it appears Trudeau and his people have gotten to the woman, and are in the process of negotiating an NDA. The woman is being represented by counsel, and is reportedly being offered monetary compensation. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trudeau-rumored-be-talks-suppress-potentially-career-ending-sex-scandal

#5 Sandra on 10.08.19 at 4:54 pm

DELETED

#6 CEW9 on 10.08.19 at 4:55 pm

I keep one stock in my portfolio. I lost 90% on it. Now it’s sole purpose is to remind me I am not special and I do not have an edge.

#7 Suede on 10.08.19 at 4:58 pm

Manulife bank pays 1.25% for a chequing account.

It’s not as easily accesible as a TD/RBC, etc.. branch.

But if you want a top rate. That’s the one.

/No skin in the game on this. Just use it myself to park rainy day cash.

#8 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 5:01 pm

Third, cash is trash. Look at this rate schedule I captured while in the TD Bank to use the washroom earlier today. Pathetic:
////////////////////

I learned the hard way not to use my camera in washrooms.

Actually it was not a washroom posting. Where the hell do you bank? – Garth

#9 Cottingham a bargain on 10.08.19 at 5:02 pm

Financial markets wobbling . Repeat of 2018 4th quarter ? Who knows.

Meanwhile back in the GTA tailwinds for RE as per usual .

When it comes to wagering , always best to be the “ house” pun intended .

#10 Leo on 10.08.19 at 5:14 pm

#4 marcus
The report was done by Tyler Durden …from fight club?

#11 Stan Brooks on 10.08.19 at 5:14 pm

Wait until they start charging negative interest rates on deposits. Currently fees act pretty much like that but is going to get much worse.

It is coming. It is not your money, it is theirs and they want it back.

How much do you think is the real market interest rates on loans these days? I would say at least 6 %, maybe 8.

Remove central bankers and see what happens.
Keep them and kiss your ‘money’ good bye/you will do that anyway.

#12 Sail Away on 10.08.19 at 5:22 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 5:01 pm

I learned the hard way not to use my camera in washrooms.

—————————–

RCMP?

#13 Popeye The Sailor Man on 10.08.19 at 5:26 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 5:01 pm
Third, cash is trash. Look at this rate schedule I captured while in the TD Bank to use the washroom earlier today. Pathetic:
////////////////////

I learned the hard way not to use my camera in washrooms.

Actually it was not a washroom posting. Where the hell do you bank? – Garth

________________

I thought it was a washroom picture taken at a bad angle with one hand because your doing some heavy lifting with the other. ;-)

#14 conan on 10.08.19 at 5:32 pm

Adele’s preparing to tour.

That means more cat videos set to her music…… It’s an internet conspiracy.

#15 neo on 10.08.19 at 5:42 pm

Any particular reason why this is being suppressed in the Canadian media but written about in the US?

https://buffalochronicle.com/2019/10/07/trudeau-is-rumored-to-be-in-talks-with-an-accusor-to-suppress-an-explosive-sex-scandal-that-may-force-him-from-office/

#16 AGuyInVancouver on 10.08.19 at 5:42 pm

#4 marcus on 10.08.19 at 4:53 pm
Finally. As I mentioned a few days ago the woman in the blackface photo would potentially be Justin’s “Monica moment”. The story is dropping today. Drip drip drip. Justin has so many skeletons from his early 20’s. Some of them are deemed permissible in today’s society while others are still a third rail. This should get good! She was a minor. She entered the school a year ahead and Justin’s goose is cooked. The Chronicle’s sources claim that political observers had been anticipating an expose in Saturday’s Globe and Mail. However, it appears Trudeau and his people have gotten to the woman, and are in the process of negotiating an NDA. The woman is being represented by counsel, and is reportedly being offered monetary compensation. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trudeau-rumored-be-talks-suppress-potentially-career-ending-sex-scandal
– – –
Nope, you’re just repeating old, baseless allegations from a third rate “news” outlet. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Garth allows it.

#17 Juve101 on 10.08.19 at 5:48 pm

“ It’s only scary when you look“
Love it!

#18 gerry on 10.08.19 at 5:48 pm

“Inflation these days is 2% and about to rock higher after October 21st.”

Please explain why.

#19 Larry B on 10.08.19 at 5:50 pm

Motive Financial is offering 2.8%…just saying.

#20 Michael King on 10.08.19 at 5:59 pm

#4 That is an interesting swerve. Frank magazine recently published a similar story. But, it mentioned a student’s mother as being the object of Trudeau’s affections.
https://frankmag.ca/2019/09/35525/

#21 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 6:00 pm

#13 Popeye The Sailor Man on 10.08.19 at 5:26 pm
#8 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 5:01 pm
Third, cash is trash. Look at this rate schedule I captured while in the TD Bank to use the washroom earlier today. Pathetic:
////////////////////

I learned the hard way not to use my camera in washrooms.

Actually it was not a washroom posting. Where the hell do you bank? – Garth

________________

I thought it was a washroom picture taken at a bad angle with one hand because your doing some heavy lifting with the other. ;-)
////////

You think he’s a lefty?

#22 ronh on 10.08.19 at 6:04 pm

But at the same time the economy’s growing in NA. Unemployment in the world’s biggest economy has plunged to a 50-year low. Central banks are adding stimulus again. Inflation is weak. Mortgages are cheap. Corporate profits are okay. Stock markets are near record highs. Investors have had a great 2019 so far.

Hmmm – something is not right. I can feel it.

#23 Yukon Elvis on 10.08.19 at 6:11 pm

The Klan is recruiting dogs now?

#24 Yukon Elvis on 10.08.19 at 6:21 pm

#16 AGuyInVancouver on 10.08.19 at 5:42 pm

Nope, you’re just repeating old, baseless allegations from a third rate “news” outlet. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Garth allows it.
……………………..

Kudos to Garth for allowing it. Takes balls.

#25 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 10.08.19 at 6:25 pm

OMG, what is it about October!?!?!?

WaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhHHHHHHH!!!

The Make Believes are LOSING AGAIN!!!

How did this happen!!??

It must be FAKE NEWS!

Please, anyone, please EXPLAIN THIS.

TORONTO MUST WIN FOREVER – I AM A BELIEVER!

#26 Another Deckchair on 10.08.19 at 6:25 pm

Hope this does not sound petty. Here goes:

Driving along the 401 from Ottawa to close to Kingston this AM, had two busses pass me. Liberal campaign busses. I was doing 110 in a 100 zone.

I know, I know, time is money. Speed is also pollution, which goes up (simplified, hand-ravingly to) with the square of velocity.

What happened to the old “we’ve all got to do our part for climate change!”

I was cringing about doing 110; should have been going slower for better fuel economy. Not that today’s trip was paid directly out of MY pocket, but in the end, T2 directs the funds for MY trip, too.

1) Why TWO busses? (or, not 1 but two 737s, for longer trips)? Garth??

2) Why not set an example, and drive at a speed that is most fuel efficient, if “climate change” and so forth is one of their mantras? leaving 15 minutes earlier is not a deal-breaker.

Unless of course, busses burn less fuel at 120 than at 100. Doubt it.

I think I know the answer; a friend of mine once said, about saving the environment, something like “why should I worry, when the ones at the top don’t?”

#27 Ed on 10.08.19 at 6:25 pm

Buying Fortis,Royal Bank,TransCanada,BCE and CNR rather than buying an index full of zombie companies is not gambling.

#28 Centrist on 10.08.19 at 6:27 pm

It undermines the integrity of this website when you allow peddlers of fake news to live out their lonely, wretched jealousy-based fantasies on here Mr. Turner.

The Buffalo Chronicle is a fake news site made up of a bunch of Ontario manosphere malcontents.

Much of the Trudeau hatred us fuelled by guys who suck with women and cannot abide it.

You’re the best thing the internet’s got going for it Garth. Please encourage the lapdogs to rise above it.

#29 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.08.19 at 6:28 pm

Billy Joel sez:

“Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray
South Pacific, Walter Winchell, Joe DiMaggio

Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Studebaker, television
North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe

Rosenbergs, H-bomb, Sugar Ray, Panmunjom
Brando, “The King and I” and “The Catcher in the Rye”

Eisenhower, vaccine, England’s got a new queen
Marciano, Liberace, Santayana goodbye

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it

Joseph Stalin, Malenkov, Nasser and Prokofiev
Rockefeller, Campanella, Communist Bloc

Roy Cohn, Juan Peron, Toscanini, Dacron
Dien Bien Phu falls, “Rock Around the Clock”

Einstein, James Dean, Brooklyn’s got a winning team
Davy Crockett, Peter Pan, Elvis Presley, Disneyland

Bardot, Budapest, Alabama, Krushchev
Princess Grace, “Peyton Place”, trouble in the Suez

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it

Little Rock, Pasternak, Mickey Mantle, Kerouac
Sputnik, Chou En-Lai, “Bridge on the River Kwai”

Lebanon, Charlse de Gaulle, California baseball
Starkweather, homicide, children of thalidomide

Buddy Holly, “Ben Hur”, space monkey, Mafia
Hula hoops, Castro, Edsel is a no-go

U2, Syngman Rhee, payola and Kennedy
Chubby Checker, “Psycho”, Belgians in the Congo

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it

Hemingway, Eichmann, “Stranger in a Strange Land”
Dylan, Berlin, Bay of Pigs invasion

“Lawrence of Arabia”, British Beatlemania
Ole Miss, John Glenn, Liston beats Patterson

Pope Paul, Malcolm X, British politician sex
JFK, blown away, what else do I have to say

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it

Birth control, Ho Chi Minh, Richard Nixon back again
Moonshot, Woodstock, Watergate, punk rock

Begin, Reagan, Palestine, terror on the airline
Ayatollah’s in Iran, Russians in Afghanistan

“Wheel of Fortune”, Sally Ride, heavy metal, suicide
Foreign debts, homeless vets, AIDS, crack, Bernie Goetz

Hypodermics on the shores, China’s under martial law
Rock and roller cola wars, I can’t take it anymore

We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
But when we are gone
Will it still burn on, and on, and on, and on
We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it
We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it”

#30 marcus on 10.08.19 at 6:33 pm

“Nope, you’re just repeating old, baseless allegations from a third rate “news” outlet. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Garth allows it.”

Sorry,you are incorrect. I was remarking that the info was finally dripping out into the media. I knew about the episode years ago since my wife knows some of the people involved. I commented on this PRIOR to the Buffalo news outlet made their story public. You learn a lot when you live a couple doors down from the Trudeau clan. LOL!

#31 Glengarry Girl on 10.08.19 at 6:37 pm

#19 Larry B

I am currently opening an account at Motive, Peoples Group is at 2.5%. I have CAD accounts with Tangerine at 3%, Meridian Credit Union 2.8%, before that RBC had 3%. In USD my Capital One is at 2.7% and Ally are at 2.85%. I am posting this to let others know that they are not alone if they are considering staying on the sidelines in cash and there are decent rates out there insured. I am in cash because I don’t have faith in the markets. I might be wrong and the central banks might keep this rigged market going forever, but I am not a gambler. I also like to have Cash available to buy hard assets when they correct. If interest rates keep lowering, I may change my current strategy, but I am keeping ahead of inflation. I also have lowered my living expenses by 75% and shifted to major savings mode.

The next strategy is eating bugs. See what fear does? – Garth

#32 Flop... on 10.08.19 at 6:39 pm

Getting spanked on both buttocks at the moment.

My left buttock has been getting spanked as the Australian Stock Exchange has been having a bit of a meltdown, so my Southern Hemisphere portfolio is down around 8% since early August.

My right buttock has been getting a playful slap from my North American portfolio with its seemingly normal October moodiness just to keep me awake.

I will be o.k, but I still keep a lookout in case the Liberals try to shove something down the middle…

M45BC

#33 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.08.19 at 6:47 pm

@26 Another Deckchair

Two Planes Flying, Two Buses Speeding.

It’s the Trudeau way.

#34 Nonplused on 10.08.19 at 6:50 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/capital-flight-killing-us-shale-boom

and…

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-are-these-five-tweets-change-world

And……

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trudeau-rumored-be-talks-suppress-potentially-career-ending-sex-scandal

All good news in October so far.

The last one is too speculative at this point to take seriously, and like the SNC affair nobody in Quebec or Ontario will care.

#35 Ian on 10.08.19 at 6:51 pm

#7 Suede

So with Manulife your money is disappearing by 0.75% instead fo 1% with TD- you’re not winning, just losing less! I use Alterna Bank because I can pay bills etc from their savings account paying 2.3%.

#36 Devil Anse on 10.08.19 at 6:52 pm

#15 neo on 10.08.19 at 5:42 pm
Any particular reason why this is being suppressed in the Canadian media but written about in the US?

——————————

The next story from that same esteemed source of information is about about how Elizabeth Warren pays for sex with a 24 year old marine. See a pattern here? Grow up.

#37 Glengarry Girl on 10.08.19 at 6:53 pm

#22 ronh

Something hasn’t been right for a while now, I feel it too and I trust my own intuition. The Central Banks and the stimulus, interest rates suppressed for a decade, Donald Trump. We are in unprecedented territory.

#38 yvr_lurker on 10.08.19 at 6:55 pm

#31
—–

I know the sentiment. I am very diligent with savings and if the economy was relying on me to be a “good consumer” we’d be pooched. Have a strong general mistrust (perhaps unfounded) of people who work with money for a career. Now I could use some $$$ to get a shrink for this condition, or educate myself and take it on myself. Purchased the balanced Vanguard ETF in April for 200K and it is doing decently (better than GICs).

#39 Bob Dog on 10.08.19 at 7:03 pm

Bankers are terrorists

You have been warned

#40 jess on 10.08.19 at 7:08 pm

By David Cay Johnston, DC Report Editor-in-Chief
Featured Story, Taxes, The Latest News
A Real Estate Deal That Should Have Raised Red Flags at the IRS

The price Bill Koch paid? $63,744,920.
The total amount he deducted? $42,637,729.
How did Koch deduct two-thirds of the value of a personal residence? The key was buying the property not in his own name, but through a Limited Liability Company or LLC. Another key is that the IRS, which is focused on income. It doesn’t normally look at real estate ownership records.

Part 4: Bill Koch May Have Taken an Illegal Tax Deduction When He Overpaid for a Cape Cod Estate
Featured Story, Taxes, The Latest News
The IRS Ignores Another Whistleblower Complaint

Part 3: How Koch’s Company Paid Him Millions of Tax-Free Dollars While Showing No Profits
A Tax Audit, a Coverup and a Neighbor in the Oval Office

Part 2: When Bill Koch’s Company Transferred Its Profits to an Overseas Tax Haven, and the IRS Looked the Other Way
Tax Dodges of the Super Rich

Part 1: How a Trump Neighbor and Supporter, Has Avoided Paying $1 Billion in Taxes

https://www.dcreport.org/2019/06/20/a-real-estate-deal-that-should-have-raised-red-flags-at-the-irs/

#41 Repent! on 10.08.19 at 7:09 pm

#36 Devil Anse on 10.08.19 at 6:52 pm

#15 neo on 10.08.19 at 5:42 pm
Any particular reason why this is being suppressed in the Canadian media but written about in the US?

——————————

The next story from that same esteemed source of information is about about how Elizabeth Warren pays for sex with a 24 year old marine. See a pattern here? Grow up.
….

Indeed….. all libs are sinners and going straight to the eternal hell fires

#42 Leo Trollstoy on 10.08.19 at 7:09 pm

#7 Suede on 10.08.19 at 4:58 pm

B2B offers 3.3%
DUCA offers 3.0%

Why even bother with 1.25%?

#43 I threw up ... on 10.08.19 at 7:13 pm

last night.

#44 Glengarry Girl on 10.08.19 at 7:17 pm

Garth,

I have a lot of respect for you and I enjoy reading your blog. I get it that your business is managing investments and that you may disagree with my decision to be a cash position. What I don’t get is how you would assume that I am not comfortable and that I have Fear. You inform us all of the time how most people are in Debt and are not in a good situation when it comes to their retirement. I am in a very good position and do not have Fear about my future. I would hope, because I believe you are a stand up guy, that I would be someone you might admire for being fiscally responsible.

You had me nodding until the part about reducing living costs by 75%. Sounded like bugs to me. – Garth

#45 Neo on 10.08.19 at 7:19 pm

DELETED

#46 Dave on 10.08.19 at 7:23 pm

Go with a respected newsletter with a good track record and buy dividend paying stocks and avoid bonds unless you need the money in the next five years. This will beat a 60/40 weighting over the long run. THere are only a small number of blue chip companies in Canada that operate as oligopolies like the banks, pipelines, and telcos and rails. Garth doesn’t mention this, but if you stick with these you’ll be fine.

#47 Barb on 10.08.19 at 7:28 pm

Hope that rate sheet wasn’t posted in the bathroom…

#48 Jason on 10.08.19 at 7:29 pm

Trading individual stocks IS gambling. And as long as you recognize this, know the odds of your system over the long term, know how to read charts, all while managing your risk, that’s your edge. You CAN beat the house quite handsomely over the long term. If you lose it all in some trendy weed stock or ENRON, you’ve only got yourself to blame and you shouldn’t be trading.

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.08.19 at 7:33 pm

@32 Flop
“but I still keep a lookout in case the Liberals try to shove something down the middle…”
++++
I believe it’s called a “rate rise”.
Nah.
It’ll be an audit and those usually go up the backside…..

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.08.19 at 7:38 pm

To all the sheeple quoting Zerohedge who quotes The Buffalo Chronicle…..
(Disclosure: I too, was once sucked in by their SNC Lavalin JWR “zingers”.)

Anywho.

Crap repeating crap.

The Buffalo Chronicle…..exposed?

https://www.canadalandshow.com/the-buffalo-chronicle-is-not-reliable/

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-buffalo-chronicle/

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/03/22/big-story-fake-news/

#51 AB on 10.08.19 at 7:39 pm

#28 Centrist
#16 a guy in Vancouver
The Trudeau shills doth protest too much me thinks.
You boy(s)could learn a thing or two from Garth about how to be man . Garth is to be commended for his courage.

#52 jim on 10.08.19 at 7:42 pm

Dear webmaster for Garth’s site:

As of iOS 13 can no longer double tap text column in Safari on the iPhone to resize larger to match screen width…very annoying for Garth fans who also use Apple devices…thanks!

#53 Tbone on 10.08.19 at 7:49 pm

No problems with holding individual blue chip stocks here.
I set up my own pension fund where I own the principle
And get to retire on the dividend income stream .
I resigned yesterday . Quit in a month .
I stopped buying more stocks so I wouldn’t screw up my OAS payout
Later on.
I like free money .

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.08.19 at 7:51 pm

Hmmmm

If enough Republicans that like Mitch Romney get onside….troubllllllle.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-whistleblower-poll-exclusiv/exclusive-democrats-willing-to-risk-2020-chances-to-impeach-trump-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1WN2D6

#55 SoggyShorts on 10.08.19 at 8:03 pm

#52 jim on 10.08.19 at 7:42 pm
Dear webmaster for Garth’s site:

As of iOS 13 can no longer double tap text column in Safari on the iPhone to resize larger to match screen width…very annoying for Garth fans who also use Apple devices…thanks!
**************************
True “Garth fans” don’t buy overpriced apple products- they’re more fiscally responsible. heh.

https://images.app.goo.gl/aeDcUwkNwFKyy44y9

#56 Cottingham a bargain on 10.08.19 at 8:04 pm

The next strategy is eating bugs. See what fear does? – Garth
————-

OMG that was funny Garth ! Kudos for that one.

I’m surprised you didn’t jump on her for wanting to buy “ hard assets” as well .. all of us knowing what those hard assets are of course lol.

No risk there it seems for her LMAO

#57 AGuyInVancouver on 10.08.19 at 8:05 pm

#30 marcus on 10.08.19 at 6:33 pm
“Nope, you’re just repeating old, baseless allegations from a third rate “news” outlet. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Garth allows it.”

Sorry,you are incorrect. I was remarking that the info was finally dripping out into the media. I knew about the episode years ago since my wife knows some of the people involved. I commented on this PRIOR to the Buffalo news outlet made their story public. You learn a lot when you live a couple doors down from the Trudeau clan. LOL!

Right, sure you do. How are the cookies at the Tory Troll Farm?

#58 Flop... on 10.08.19 at 8:18 pm

Geez, I can’t believe how orange Trump’s head is getting.

I think he took the turmeric thing too far…

M45BC

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.08.19 at 8:19 pm

@#41 Repent
“The next story from that same esteemed source of information is about about how Elizabeth Warren pays for sex with a 24 year old marine. See a pattern here? Grow up.”
+++++

Does the Marine sing ? ,
“From the Halls of Montezuma
To the shores of Tripoli;
We fight our country’s battles
In the air, on land, and sea;
First to fight for right and freedom
And to keep our honor clean;
We are proud to claim the title
Of United States Marine……”

#60 S.Bby on 10.08.19 at 8:21 pm

Nothing wrong with buying good quality blue chip stocks. Gambling is buying the outlier companies.

#61 PastThePeak on 10.08.19 at 8:24 pm

Trading stocks (if not a professional & part of your job) is gambling.

Buying speculative stocks looking for a big score is gambling.

Purchasing individual blue chip equities with a focus on dividend growth, with consideration for geographic and sector diversity, is 100% investing by becoming a part owner in the specific businesses.

#62 S.Bby on 10.08.19 at 8:26 pm

DELETED

#63 PastThePeak on 10.08.19 at 8:27 pm

#37 Glengarry Girl on 10.08.19 at 6:53 pm
#22 ronh

Something hasn’t been right for a while now, I feel it too and I trust my own intuition. The Central Banks and the stimulus, interest rates suppressed for a decade, Donald Trump. We are in unprecedented territory.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I can feel it in my bones…

#64 News Platform on 10.08.19 at 8:28 pm

The platform in Buffalo, NY is mainly devoted to issues in the surrounding area, so nothing fake about it at all. I see no problem the webmaster adding occasional additions about Canada. Being in the USA, the laws prevent a lawsuit against them is my understanding.

#65 oh bouy on 10.08.19 at 8:28 pm

buffalo chronicle? zerohedge?

Come on blogdogs, you’re better than this.

#66 tccontrarian on 10.08.19 at 8:30 pm

I get a feeling of Deja vous, again!

If my memory serves, it was around the same time last year and everything was hunky-dory; ‘everyone’ was making money – then the bottom fell out of the markets.

Of course, it was all Trump’s fault (aren’t we tired of scapegoating Mr. Orange yet?)

Well, I’m NOT in cash but I AM heavily weighted in Energy, EM’s and precious metals. Mostly ETFs but also individual stocks I like for their home-run potential.

FWIW, I am expecting a correction again similar to last year (SP500, Dow), but it could be even more intense. For me, being prepared is more profitable than being ‘scared’ – even on Halloween. Boo!!

tcc

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.08.19 at 8:50 pm

@#63 past the peak
“I can feel it in my bones…”
+++++

Arthritis?

#68 Deplorable Dude on 10.08.19 at 9:06 pm

#27 Ed..”
Buying Fortis,Royal Bank,TransCanada,BCE and CNR rather than buying an index full of zombie companies is not gambling.”

Agreed…pick nice stable companies with a long history of increasing dividends. Banks, Utilities are great.

Enjoy growing income every year as dividends are increased.

Can be a rollercoaster ride for portfolio value, but those lovely divs keep on rolling in regardless.

Last year sucked for portfolio value, but up nearly 20% this year. And have seen a 7% overall increase in dividend income ytd.

#69 Paul on 10.08.19 at 9:13 pm

#4 marcus on 10.08.19 at 4:53 pm
Finally. As I mentioned a few days ago the woman in the blackface photo would potentially be Justin’s “Monica moment”. The story is dropping today. Drip drip drip. Justin has so many skeletons from his early 20’s. Some of them are deemed permissible in today’s society while others are still a third rail. This should get good! She was a minor. She entered the school a year ahead and Justin’s goose is cooked. The Chronicle’s sources claim that political observers had been anticipating an expose in Saturday’s Globe and Mail. However, it appears Trudeau and his people have gotten to the woman, and are in the process of negotiating an NDA. The woman is being represented by counsel, and is reportedly being offered monetary compensation. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trudeau-rumored-be-talks-suppress-potentially-career-ending-sex-scandal
————————————————————————————————
Is reportedly being offered monetary compensation. Lol
You mean like a Bribe!

#70 Beneath on 10.08.19 at 9:20 pm

Salutations and genuflections from the steerage section Garth. I have a 90% equity 10% bond ETF portfolio with WealthSimple. Would this over the long term beat out a 60% equity and 40% bond split? I have a 20 year time horizon left, and have never panic sold over the past 10 years and never intend to. Is this smart if I stay in, or does the rebalancing with a 60 40 yield greater returns?

It’s not about returns. But you’ll learn. – Garth

#71 Marcus on 10.08.19 at 9:25 pm

DELETED

#72 Dr V on 10.08.19 at 9:48 pm

29 Bytor….

Yeah, I’m sitting on this barstool, talking like a damn fool
Got the twelve o’clock news blues
And I’ve given up hope for the afternoon soaps
And a bottle of cold brew
Is it any wonder I’m not crazy?
Is it any wonder I’m sane at all?

[Verse 2]
Well, I’m so tired of losing- I got nothing to do
And all day to do it
Well, I’d go out cruisin’, but I’ve no place to go
And all night to get there
Is it any wonder I’m not a criminal?
Is it any wonder I’m not in jail?

[Chorus]
Is it any wonder I’ve got too much time on my hands?
It’s ticking away with my sanity
I’ve got too much time on my hands
It’s hard to believe such a calamity
I’ve got too much time on my hands
And it’s ticking away, ticking away from me
Too much time on my hands
(It’s t-t-t-t-ticking away)
Too much time on my hands
(And I don’t know what to do with myself)
Too much time on my hands

#73 Marcus on 10.08.19 at 9:52 pm

Deleted Garth? How predictable. Everything I stated was true to my experience and memory. What about it does not conform to your ideology I wonder? Anyway, It matters not …. have a great evening.

#74 DON on 10.08.19 at 10:07 pm

Falling leaves. Easy peasy on the wet coast, wait for a dry day and recycle via the lawn mowers. Well…if there is a dry day.

Shorter days suck…noting more satisfying than going to work in the dark and coming home in the dark.

STOP changing the time!

Garth you mentioned 1987 funk. Bad omen?

GM Strike, HSBC layoffs, Germany experiencing a slow down are just the latest to add.

I can’t wait for Spring, at least the weather will be good. Feels like a stormy winter ahead!

For well over a century this month has sucked. Stock market gyrations during October have averaged 38% more than any other slice of the calendar. The biggest, scariest declines have happened here– back in 1929 (Oct. 28 – 13%), again in 1987 (Oct. 19 – 22%)

#75 dirtydebtor on 10.08.19 at 10:14 pm

Garth, interesting to see you preach ETFs. As your fund, turner investments, is managing a large portfolio, do you maintain individual stocks? or does your fund invest in exclusively ETFs?

It would make sense either way really, the robo stuff is so low fee these days

I walk the talk. – Garth

#76 DON on 10.08.19 at 10:20 pm

#63 PastThePeak on 10.08.19 at 8:27 pm

#37 Glengarry Girl on 10.08.19 at 6:53 pm
#22 ronh

Something hasn’t been right for a while now, I feel it too and I trust my own intuition. The Central Banks and the stimulus, interest rates suppressed for a decade, Donald Trump. We are in unprecedented territory.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I can feel it in my bones…
***************************************

Intuition is good especially when enhanced by observation, factual information, reasoning and deduction.

Were are in strange waters for sure and big debt is the anchor. Look at savings accounts…it’s obvious the banks don’t think many people have money to save at the end of the month.

#77 CJohnC on 10.08.19 at 10:25 pm

#52 jim on 10.08.19 at 7:42
Instead of the double tap on the iPhone, use reader view. It is cleaner anyways. But won’t work for the comments section

#78 DON on 10.08.19 at 10:27 pm

#12 Sail Away on 10.08.19 at 5:22 pm

#8 Penny Henny on 10.08.19 at 5:01 pm

I learned the hard way not to use my camera in washrooms.

—————————–

RCMP?
****************
Guest washroom in a prison?

#79 DON on 10.08.19 at 10:46 pm

#30 marcus on 10.08.19 at 6:33 pm

“Nope, you’re just repeating old, baseless allegations from a third rate “news” outlet. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Garth allows it.”

Sorry,you are incorrect. I was remarking that the info was finally dripping out into the media. I knew about the episode years ago since my wife knows some of the people involved. I commented on this PRIOR to the Buffalo news outlet made their story public. You learn a lot when you live a couple doors down from the Trudeau clan. LOL!
****************

If true: Anything coming out in Canada may be delayed till after the election. The PM can be swapped out after the election if the story is substantiated and there is no hush money involved. At the end of the day it is the Liberal Party that will be in Power (hopefully a minority), and Justin T is optional. Then they could ask Jane or Judy to run the party. Just one thought…maybe there will ask Garth to take the helm! Show some real leadership, vision and guts. OK sizzling abs.

#80 Remembrancer on 10.08.19 at 11:07 pm

#65 oh bouy on 10.08.19 at 8:28 pm
buffalo chronicle? zerohedge?

Come on blogdogs, you’re better than this.
——————————–
And its still 5 days til the full moon, jeez…

#81 NoName on 10.09.19 at 12:56 am

Continuation from yesterday, here it is the that paper that states even if we stop co2 that temperatures will be reising. So maybe instead of carbon tax, we should do carbon capture and sequestration…

Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface
temperature would remain approximately constant on multicentury timescales after CO2 emissions1–9 are stopped. Here
we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to
demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may
actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial
century-long decrease.

https://cmi.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/research/pdfs/froelicher_ncc13.pdf

this is my 3rd time in last 8yrs posting link to this video

Vinod Khosla will provide a look at renewable energy – where we are (and some of the exciting technologies out there) and where we need to be, as well as the key criteria necessary to differentiate real solutions from niche opportunities.

https://youtu.be/euXfy9c3Vuw

#82 Nonplused on 10.09.19 at 1:26 am

#65 oh bouy

Zerohedge is the best news source out there, although you have to discount the speculative and sensational stuff. And I did say the last one was too speculative to take seriously at this point. But if the bomb drops don’t say nobody saw it coming.

#83 WhistlerSnowBum on 10.09.19 at 1:57 am

It’s interesting to see how many people equate “good” companies with “good” stocks. This isn’t always the case.

#84 Oh Canada I Weep on 10.09.19 at 2:21 am

DELETED

#85 Westcdn on 10.09.19 at 2:29 am

I am in the elder class and want to share experience even it can drive you nuts. I will be one shaking my cane at youth. While being between 16 and 21 – I was driven by emotions and stupid. I was a late bloomer and I guess hormones retarded my brain. After I fledged out my brain started working again and I began to understand how things worked.

I still push against tides. I have come to realize there is a large part of my mind that does not speak to me directly but I can feel its influence. I call it “instincts”. There was a commenter saying I didn’t understand science and another saying unconscious willpower was real. I kinda liked the latter and will carry on, right or wrong. I consider being wrong a learning moment and being right a so what.

#86 crazyfox on 10.09.19 at 2:47 am

Apologies for changing the topic ever so slightly, Garth. Investing with a conservative, balanced portfolio does need attention and one of the points you’ve made concerning interest rates with “cash is trash”, is spot on. Not only is cash a loser, central bank rates as low as they are, give bond markets little room for coupons to inflate should a recession arise.

What are the feds thinking? I mean, Trump is doing what he can to create a currency wealth effect arguably to the medium and long term detrimental future stability of the U.S. dollar. I’ll quickly go through them:

– allowing overseas corporate tax dodgers to bring home income un-taxed after decades in tax shelters. it’s highly unethical and an ugly precedent, but boosts the dollar.
– slow rolling green tech and lowering EPA standards for gas guzzling cars and trucks. Creates more pollution and smog shortening lives, but boosts the petrol dollar.
– Deregulation of the financial sector has inflated real estate and created the double wealth effect of more personal equity and you guessed it, boosted the dollar.
– deregulation of all other sectors has also boosted the dollar through more corporate profit but the long term consequences by themselves can create recessions. Deregulation of the finance sector alone, lets not forget, led directly to the 08′ GFC.
-Trump has cut public education spending, tried with some success to end public healthcare spending, has not signed off on any infrastructure spending since he’s been office and took the savings and given it away to the rich. Currently, the fed is running trillion dollar deficits at the best of times with unemployment at an all time low and GDP running over 2% growth. The government (fed alone) is borrowing 5% of GDP growth to do it. This props up the dollar but its unsustainable. This is a hallmark of a national currency in stress or crisis created by either overspending/under taxation, or high rates ballooning public debt towards unsustainable levels, in this case the first.
– One can strengthen the U.S. dollar through low interest rates. It increases lending creating more velocity through the money supply and strengthens the dollar.
– Have I missed any boxes to check off? Try war or in the case of the U.S., a petrol dollar war where the dollar inflates from both… short term. Shouldn’t be too hard to predict, Trump will check off this box too, before the election… if they don’t get rid of him first.

What does the U.S. Fed do in times of recession? The Fed tries to thaw the freeze in lending through cheap rates. This strengthens the dollar creating more PPP, gets cash flowing and depending on the type of bonds, coupon values inflate offsetting market losses and it kick starts the economy again.

What can the Fed do if the recession begins with central bank lending rates near zero? Well, not much. Has it happened before? I can’t remember a time, this is anomalous. The Fed is forced to sit back and watch and if there is a currency crisis engineered with policies like Trump’s and such a crisis is ripe the longer such policies go on, rates will go up, not down and coupon values will take a bath and bond holders will have to ride it out for yields or take losses (depending of course, on the type of bonds but I think I have the gist of this right)… during a recession… where bonds in general are thought to be safe. They aren’t all losers but certainly the majority would be.

Do I have that right? Anyone?

Again, what can central bankers do? Go negative? Give money away? Or let rates rise… . What’s going on (low rates) is not logical for the Fed in a climate with unemployment so low unless the western world, as indebted as it already is, can’t handle the shock of rising rates but there is just no wiggle room anymore. The Fed has no ammo in its gun to fight recessions and high rates in such an indebted world is a dark scenario. Both realities are worrisome to me. Am I justified in seeing the dangers here, am I the only one who sees it this way?

#87 crazyfox on 10.09.19 at 7:49 am

2 weeks left before an election. I’m trying to do my due diligence as a voter finally and sure this is not a Canadian first. My vote doesn’t matter much, I’m in a western riding won by the same Con MP six times by high 50’s% or more and not much will change but so what. But still, I look at the candidates running and the party platforms and took in a recorded leadership debate and this is what I’ve seen so far:

Leadership debate was disappointing and reassuring at the same time. The leaders, I do mean all of them, are well meaning. We could do far worse with the field running. Better, too. We are all flawed as humans, our political leaders being no exception so it’s easy to say, we can do better. They all have flaws. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, we vote for the lesser of two evils. The leaders, the parties, the platforms, the ideologies and practices and doctrines and teachings and such, which choice will cause the least damage instead of the most good. It’s really like that, I’m afraid.
Lets start with the party websites.

https://www.ndp.ca/

The NDP doesn’t really have a platform on their website. I like Jagmeet. You can tell, he’s a decent individual but their website sucks. It’s short on detail. There’s no platform. How do you expect to trail blaze with no details? Nothing is costed, it’s like voting for a void. If the NDP bombs in the voting booth, its because they haven’t articulated what they stand for. The devil is always in the details… what are they hiding? You have to stand for something and when you don’t express it, the quick assumption is that you either haven’t learned how, or its too shady to be made public.

https://www.greenparty.ca/en

With the Greens, their website is steeped in detail. Their platform is there in plain sight, hiding nothing including costing. The problem with the Greens is the math. I wholeheartedly dispute reducing oil production to 8% by 2050 as necessary, at least in Canada. I explain why here in detail:

#160 crazyfox on 10.08.19 at 4:41 pm

Fundamental questions need to be asked when it comes to achieving carbon neutrality in the future specifically with upstream/downstream emissions. Will hydrocarbons be burned in the future as light crude is earmarked for or will they end up in a landfill such as plastics, carbon composites and asphalt, or will they be recycled? It’s simple. Unburned hydrocarbons downstream are acceptable (and necessary), burned hydrocarbons are not. Refineries have to clean up their act, (but can be forced to through regulation and tax subsidies) while the future of light crude consumed by combustion engines is dim for good reason but to say no to the production of asphalt, plastics and synthetic oils is extreme and unnecessary with the tech coming coupled with the needs of a greening world. In terms of pollution… the Greens need a rethink especially in Canada where extra heavy crude production is so high.

A greener world trying it’s best to avoid the apocalypse is not an extremist world that bans all hydrocarbon production. Instead, it’s a world that does not promote waste and pollution, overpopulation, biodiversity loss, poor ethics/greed or allow the environment to be bought and sold as a mere commodity. Instead, its a world that embraces superior tech and values life, health and all that supports it as the most important values of all and with the population levels, we don’t have time to experiment, we are the experiment and we are down to one chance to get it right if we have that still.

The Greens have their hearts in the right place as evidenced by their platform, but they are increasing government spending by 21%. 3.5% of GDP, that’s a lot! Free tuition, I like it, but it’s costly. I like Pharmacare too, but it’s costly and if the government doesn’t regulate the food manufacturing industry to chop out the sugar at the very least, we are looking at a recipe for major deficits, especially at a time when future oil and gas revenue will be in disruption and on the wane. Increasing corp taxation from 15 to 21% can offset, but run the risk of slowed productivity by the numbers. 100% taxed capital gains… not in favor. That’s a hail Mary for a currency crisis or stuff we can’t see coming, not for a first year govy. A .5% tax on all financial transactions… not in favor. Is it necessary to drum up this kind of revenue in this way so early?

I’ll say it again and again. Our government’s biggest expenditure is health care. The best way to reduce health care spending is through diet and the best way to do this is through government regulation. This is the true test of ethics and merit by way of the government’s ability to shape imports or manufacturing of food products. Digestive cancers and diabetes is going through the roof. What more incentive do we need for governments to act? Sugar is addictive and shortens people’s lives, so start there.

Garth is 100% right. Some 70% of government budgets are on healthcare and education. Our government spends too much money but on what? Education? It’s an investment. Healthcare? Bingo! The answer doesn’t lie in spending to treat illness or cheaper drugs (although that helps), but in regulating food manufacturers to promote health. Yes, the food on today’s shelves are that dangerous and the solution in my world is a Canadian government telling us not so directly, what to eat in our kitchens through regulation, trade wars be damned. If the Greens ever want to get serous about forming a government, they’ll need to wise up in doing the same. Cont.

#88 October on 10.09.19 at 7:51 am

“October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” – Mark Twain

#89 maxx on 10.09.19 at 7:59 am

@ #2

Hear! Hear!

My choice will be for a non-ageist, non-divisive, non-separatist, fiscally prudent government.

Starting with having had previous TFSA levels yanked away, seeing regularly scheduled clowning around the globe and suffering incessant braying about “middle class families” over the past 4 years has honed my gag reflex to the limit.

Newsflash for the current bunch: Seniors have paid taxes a hell of a lot longer than your “middle class families”, so chopping the TFSA limit is clearly demographic pandering at its cheapest and most transparent.

I also want decent representation on the world stage which does not cheapen Canada’s brand.

#90 crazyfox on 10.09.19 at 8:04 am

https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/

Not much to say here, most of it is misguided. Bernier has a platform, but it’s not costed. 2 years to balance is not realistic and he knows it so why try? The platform is divisive and the immigration policy is misguided at best. Ending open borders, its a myth, we don’t have them. Just this issue alone, reducing the numbers of immigrants into Canada effects economic growth. Immigrants are net positive with income after 2.5 years. Their “issue” with immigrants over economics is misguided and myopic at best and racist at worst. The platform is full of exaggerations and false information driven by no other reason I can think of than prejudice and ignorance. This is a front for division and a party that needs to die. Lets move on.

https://www.blocquebecois.org/

Their site is “all French” and without translation. (says a lot)

The Bloc is a party that argues openly for separation from Canada. That being said, it’s a party that is working against federalism specifically. The Bloc argument is the right to self determination established by language and culture. This argument has no merit to me. Unprotected human rights and a general breakdown in the rule of law would get me there. The universal federal government practices of discrimination and inequality would give grounds for separation. That being said, I don’t see the reason for Quebec to separate other than their leaders and supporters of a political party who want power within provincial borders.

It’s the same argument I hear from a western separatist. “We will be wealthier, more prosperous, free” etc., full of ideals and promise of ‘better” but at the end of the day, they are trying to reinvent the wheel. It’s up to the federal parties to run candidates that give Quebec better choices, its that simple.

https://2019.liberal.ca/

The Libs have a costed platform:

https://2019.liberal.ca/our-platform/a-responsible-fiscal-plan/

By the numbers, there isn’t much by way of change. 9.3 billion in new spending. A tax break the poor and middle class by raising tax exemption from $14,500 to $15,000 costing 2.9 billion in tax revenue… increasing OAS increasing spending by 1.6 billion next year scaling up to 2.5 billion by year 4… its 5.4 of 9.3 billion in increased spending/tax decreases. It’s modest, boring, about what one would and likely should expect from an incumbent party.

The Libs boast net debt to GDP ratio at 30.9% but gross debt is the one you should worry about, much higher, around 90% of GDP. Intergovernmental debt is not encouraging either. Is the train coming off the rails? hardly and its hyperbole and disingenuous to say that it is but Garth is 100% right. This current lib govy is overspending and they all will… and that’s a problem.

Can spending be reduced through regulation? Yes, same way any other political party could but it takes leadership and vision and picking your fights because it is one. Nothing good is ever just handed to us, it doesn’t come easy, we have to fight for it. The fight I want, the war I know it will be to right the fiscal ship, is against food manufacturing corps specifically. We start with sugar and move onto as many unnecessary food additives as we can but the simple fact of 75% added sugar in the food supply or 450,00 products of some 600,00 in the U.S. alone is by itself an indictment to the corruption we are facing in trade and regulation that has spilled over north of the line. Its embedded with trade, its systematic and has been going on 30 years or more, with lobby efforts comparable to big tobacco and asbestos with the power of big oil and it’s killing people much the same way. Slowly… and costing us tens of billions every year.

https://www.liberal.ca/our-progress/

Have the Libs progressed? Man… it can always be worse. I wish it was different but it’s not progression we vote for, its damage control. Who screws up the least and on that note, I give a rats ass if Justin wore black/brown face when no one else cared. Who cares now? Cue the fake outrage, it comes across as so hypocritical. Again, does anyone seriously believe T2 is a racist? Really? It’s like accusing him of being sexist and racist for replacing JWR. Who hired her and encouraged her to run as an MP to begin with?

No doubt T2’s made some mistakes. He didn’t deliver on balancing a budget. He’s falling short with climate and we all know it but in politics, who’s better? The Greens and NDP aren’t ready to govern. The People’s party and the Bloc can’t be taken seriously except in certain context, they can’t even be considered to govern. This leaves the Libs and Cons.

https://www.conservative.ca/

No platform… the election is in 12 days and there is no Conservative platform to be found. None. Crickets. No details, nothing costed, nothing to be found with an election 12 days away. Does this appear like a ready government in the waiting to you? Will we ever see anything other than dribbles through media that sound like Republican talking points, an embassy move to Jerusalem, 25% cuts to foreign aid… lets talk about that one for a moment: Cont.

#91 crazyfox on 10.09.19 at 8:29 am

https://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2019/10/01/scheer-pledges-to-cut-foreign-aid-by-25-re-invest-savings-in-various-tax-cuts.html

Foreign aid doesn’t just make bleeding hearts feel good, it gives us economic access to foreign markets of which there basically 2 ways to do it. You can target spending through foreign governments and UN initiatives or you can give money away with strings attached. “We’ll give you this or for so much at such an interest rate, we can give you personnel and resources and build it for you. Telecom, internet, mines, whatever you like.” The former relies on reputation to open access to markets abroad. The latter opens access between governments directly and no one does it better than China. Depending on the context, I prefer both but lets not be naive ok, foreign aid opens access to foreign markets. To not understand this and follow isolationist Trumpian Republican logic with some dribble about tax cuts with saved money that mystically ends up in the pockets of the average Joe is a stretch to believe and typical behavior of a political party who can’t release a costed platform with 12 days to go to election day.

Sheer already laid some eggs before last night’s debate where he came off as an angry suit. “Trudeau is a racist, Trudeau is a misogynist, Trudeau is a fake phony”, with all the political cabinet appointments and public servant appointments on down, with all the color and gender equality in the appointments, it simply does not square with Trudeau’s choices as PM. Cue the fake outrage, so why try? When I see someone behave that way, I can’t help but think that I’m the next one that gets lied to. It gets the base energized, sort of, but it doesn’t move the big tent needle. Y’know? That takes a platform and some measure of integrity and merit. I’m still waiting.

The one consistent divide between the Libs and Cons is climate change. The other is ethics. Leaders can’t simply come across as “opposition” to win, they have to stand for something, take hard lines in the sand. Ethics isn’t something you earn through smearing your opponent, its something you earn through your actions. Like I said, still waiting but the one issue outside of ethics between them is climate change. 29% of Canadians said this was their #1 issue. That’s a lot. Some will vote Green no doubt but the majority will vote for the governing party that most addresses this issue and this is where Sheer lays another egg.

Perhaps the next debate (Thursday) will offer more clarity for voters but if the Conservatives don’t put out a costed platform before election day, something this subtle can lead to a Liberal majority all by itself and when one thinks hard enough, so it should. You have to stand for something in politics and if you can’t, you seriously don’t belong.

#92 Bad Fog on 10.09.19 at 8:41 am

“Picking stocks is gambling”? Hahahaha, no takers for the boiled meat today Amigo. There is no wealth without picking stocks. What are you investing for? Is Fortis or Emera going to turn off the power? Not likely. Prefs are fine for the div that’s true, but look at the juicy capital gains in EMA or FTS or BCE, T or ENB etc etc etc over the past few years. $18 dollar stocks five years ago are $60 plus today. And those are “the safe stocks”. The choice stocks like GIB. a etc etc have made thousands into hundreds of thousands.

Learn to read a balance sheet and stay sober. Following the news and goings on of the companies you own until you make enough to call stock picking a full time job. If you want to gamble, buy an ETF. If you want to profit, get interested in the inner workings of individual companies.

Fine for cowboys. Wholly wrong for most people. – Garth

#93 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.09.19 at 8:45 am

@72 Dr. V:

Styx was a great show live. You shoulda been there!

#94 IHCTD9 on 10.09.19 at 9:07 am

#28 Centrist on 10.08.19 at 6:27 pm

…allow peddlers of fake news to live out their lonely, wretched jealousy-based fantasies…

…made up of a bunch of Ontario manosphere malcontents.

…fuelled by guys who suck with women and cannot abide it.
____

Speaking of fake news…

#95 Dharma Bum on 10.09.19 at 9:42 am

Hey Dogs,
Whaaaaaat’s happening?
Any thoughts on the reals estate market for this fall?
Yahhhhhhhh…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVmC0ktznNo

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.09.19 at 9:46 am

@#87,90,91 crazyfox

Sorry I wasnt listening……..
Could you repeat that?

#97 James on 10.09.19 at 10:00 am

#6 CEW9 on 10.08.19 at 4:55 pm

I keep one stock in my portfolio. I lost 90% on it. Now it’s sole purpose is to remind me I am not special and I do not have an edge.
____________________________________________

Well said I also once though I had an edge back when I lived in LaLa land I bought PG&E stock at around $28US. I dropped off most of the stock at a nice profit when I moved back to Canada but kept a marginal amount just for fun. I mean its PG&E stock for gods sake everyone in California gets their energy from PG&E. Well, well I took a hit this year with all of the law suits it dumped at around $7US. That goes to show you that none of us have the crystal ball. Stuck with wallpaper and a chapter 11 case now. Who knew?
PG&E currently sits at $10.90US today.

#98 James on 10.09.19 at 10:14 am

DELETED

#99 Rick Talka on 10.09.19 at 10:16 am

Our TFSA’s, RRSP’s are all tax free, tax sheltered so getting ICICI Bank and other financial institutions 5 year GIC’s all CDIC and after compounding 3.185% is not that spectacular but will do for fixed income part of our investments.

We figured save more, instead of 18% just in RRSP’s of our income which is $20,300 a year we added TFSA’s which is $12,000 a year or 11% a year. Non-registered is a different story with corporate bonds and dividend paying stocks in the 3.5% to 4.25% range.

Fixed income in tax free, tax deferred plans and equities, stocks in non-registered money. We have a mini mortgage fixed at 2.99% for 5% equity from our house $38,000 and has been invested for years now in a great investment Algonquin Power Utilities up 30% plus so far 18% in dividends paid out in 4 years.

#100 James on 10.09.19 at 10:20 am

It will be interesting how he can spin this one?

https://buffalochronicle.com/2019/10/07/trudeau-is-rumored-to-be-in-talks-with-an-accusor-to-suppress-an-explosive-sex-scandal-that-may-force-him-from-office/

Will people please stop posting this piece of fabricated crap? – Garth

#101 John on 10.09.19 at 10:22 am

Rents are going up stupid in Toronto. $2,500 for a 1 bedroom, $3,000 for a house. It makes me wonder if I should make a stupid decision to buy since my mortgage would be the same. I’m not sure how Millenials are supposed to get ahead in this economy.

Anyone thinking rent = mortgage needs help. You will have to put down tens of thousands as a deposit, pay closing costs, property tax, insurance, maintenance and likely condo fees, then fork out 5% to sell. Do the math. – Garth

#102 PG&E on 10.09.19 at 10:23 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/800000-californians-lose-power-after-midnight

#103 Marcus on 10.09.19 at 10:50 am

DELETED

And please go away. – Garth

#104 maxx on 10.09.19 at 10:58 am

@ #44

You go girl. Play your own game and stay in your comfort zone. Sounds like you’ll be a MM at some point anyway.

Skip the bugs, eat healthy vegetarian, stay active and your doctor will tell you you’ve got the heart of an athlete. Another source of wealth.

Investment style is personal and not necessarily fixed. Sometimes it’s based upon fear and at other times, people just prefer to sleep.

My bank pays out 5-year GIC interest monthly, with zero penalty. Another allows me unlimited transactions for the great sum of zero.

I have reduced retail by high double-digits as well. I’m having a mahogany Chippendale desk delivered today – paid for by what I typically save in a week, maybe two. That should provide a lovely surface upon which to partake in a bowl of bugs, should the mood strike.

If I was going to invest differently, I’d choose Turner Investments. But I’m not quite there. And I may never be.

I think it’s bad form to lean on people simply because they happen to see things differently – if they decide to change their approach, they won’t forget your words.

#105 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.09.19 at 11:04 am

“Fifth, no stocks. No individual equities should be in most people’s accounts, only ETFs. This helps shield you from the volatility caused when trendy weed stocks tank, profitless app companies blow up or there’s a Nortel/Blackberry/Enron implosion.”

Maybe Garth is too young to remember, so I’ll provide a little history lesson for all: Nortel peaked at 37% of the market cap of the TSE 300 (as the index then was). Not many disciplined stock pickers would’ve had 37% of their portfolio in one stock. It was the indexers who had their nuts macerated.

#106 conan on 10.09.19 at 11:16 am

I think most people are getting sick of the fake outrage. What is the Conservative platform anyway? Harper with a smile just does not cut it. More like angry Andy and the Decepticons.

They do not believe in climate change…….. that’s more than enough to punish them at the voting booth.

Add in all the Trumponian nonsense that the Cons want to bring to Canada and it’s a no brainer where the undecided/strategic vote is likely to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkZ7iWCYOu8&list=PLG0W27j3Wle3nwu6PT8QyA6IIV2jLKQfW&index=2

#107 IHCTD9 on 10.09.19 at 11:46 am

#101 John on 10.09.19 at 10:22 am
Rents are going up stupid in Toronto. $2,500 for a 1 bedroom, $3,000 for a house. It makes me wonder if I should make a stupid decision to buy since my mortgage would be the same. I’m not sure how Millenials are supposed to get ahead in this economy.
___

Take heart John, I’m sure that less than 1 in a thousand self funded, single, GTA Millennials are buying Toronto SFD’s these days, so you’re perfectly normal.

Seriously – if home ownership is important enough to voluntarily self-destroy your life’s finances, start looking at a different city to live/work in where the earnings to RE cost ratio is better.

If Toronto living is otherwise “that good” then renting for life should not be an issue for you.

DO NOT buy a Condo.

#108 JohnnyAppleseed on 10.09.19 at 12:18 pm

https://www.remax.ca/bc/cranbrook-real-estate/1701-3rd-avenue-s-wp_id231939194-lst

This is so 2007.

#109 Captain Uppa on 10.09.19 at 12:20 pm

A smidgen off-topic.

Garth, why the hate for Kia? I meant to ask this a few posts back when you made yet another disparaging quip against said automaker.

I don’t own a Kia, but all reports suggest their quality and reliability are towards the top these days. Just curious.

Now ask me about Hyundai. – Garth

#110 Phylis on 10.09.19 at 12:44 pm

A pound of cricket powder is over $50 on amazon. Those bugs are expensive. Best to stick with the home grown ones.

#111 Steven Rowlandson on 10.09.19 at 12:57 pm

Saving is a virtue but it doesn’t pay. To make any kind of a useful income you need massive amounts of the official currency.

#112 IHCTD9 on 10.09.19 at 1:58 pm

So, after AS or JT wins the election and bestow upon our house horny metro hopefuls greater buying power than ever before, how long until said RE shoots to the moon?

This should be pretty epic. Rock bottom rates combined with a fat syringe full of anabolics for buyers. Rates could drop even more too! It’s going to take some mental fortitude on behalf of the prudent to resist the salacious hoards tossing their heads and galloping in full heat.

I’m guessing by the time all this runs its course, the GTA/YVR RE markets will be a puke worthy comedy show.

Next stop – 3000.00+ for a one bedroom apt in Toronto?

#113 Jesse on 10.09.19 at 2:34 pm

Question to Garth: if you’re under 40, do you need bonds? Why?

Age has zero to do with it. – Garth

#114 Always Remember on 10.09.19 at 2:37 pm

A vote for change becomes a vote for the leader of the Conservative Party, whether you like it or not. A vote for the Liberal Party means more of the same. What has the Liberal Party accomplished in the past years – nothing? The other parties running are of minor importance at this time. Do you really want more of the same circus going nowhere?

#115 David on 10.09.19 at 3:06 pm

My late father used to tell me, “don’t put your money in the bank, buy the bank”. I’ve been doing that for many years and have been consistently rewarded with dividends of around five percent by CM, BNS, and BMO. Why should I buy bonds or other instruments which pay less and are taxed more?

#116 Richard Gibbons on 10.09.19 at 3:44 pm

Jesse, since Garth didn’t really answer your question about bonds, I’ll give you my view of his reasoning.

Since bonds often go up when equities go down–and are generally less volatile than equities regardless–adding bonds to a portfolio reduces volatility. What’s more, it does so without costing much in returns, since bonds normally have OK returns and because rebalancing the portfolio when bonds are up and equities down (and vice versa) essentially results in a automatic “sell high to buy low” trade.

Low volatility is good because it reduces the chance of selling at an inopportune time. With lower volatility, you’re less likely to panic sell during bear markets since your portfolio won’t fall as much, and, in a way, there are fewer bad times to sell because lower volatility means there are fewer bad times (i.e. a low volatility portfolio will experience a 10% loss from its high less frequently than a high volatility portfolio.)

#117 Sask to AB on 10.09.19 at 3:47 pm

re#91 crazyfox on 10.09.19 at 8:29 am

Thanks for your analysis.
Appreciate it!

F56AB