Lubrication

Oliver’s a Millennial. He admits it. “35,” he says. “Make about 90k a year, DB pension, managed to save about 80k in a balanced portfolio of ETFs. 0 debt. I drive a Kia, so you already know I’m depraved, but I hope you’ll be able to give me some advice, anyway.”

The context: we’re exactly two weeks away from a federal election which has only two clear themes (since nobody seems to care about climate change, Albertan hurt feelings or Blackface). They’re tax cuts and, above all, sucking up to needy people like Olly. First-time homebuyers are the target demographic of both Trudeau and Scheer in the first election in which moisters represent the largest voting bloc.

As you know, Cons would gut the stress test and bring back 30-year mortgages. Libs have upped the RRSP homebuyer limit, will bring in yet another anti-Chinese-dude tax and have rolled out a shared-equity mortgage for properties up to $800,000 in the bubble cities.

Everybody whose livelihood doesn’t come from selling/financing properties or has a brain free of house-lusty hormones agrees: these are seriously bad ideas. They’ll increase demand and drive up the price of a limited supply of homes. And, really, how does it make sense to allow a couple to use $70,000 in money they got a big tax credit for to buy a house that’ll give tax-free gains? How did the system become so perverse? And why is the election of 2019 – where all parties would run budget deficits – making it worse? Oh right – nobody cares about the deficit. Silly us.

Anyway, back to O.

“I read in a blog comment you responded to the other day – “never leave free money on the table”. How does this apply to the new Federal Home Buyers Incentive Plan?

“I currently rent a decent 1-bed in the GTA for just shy of 2k/month plus utilities (new building, not rent-controlled in Ontario).

“With a buyers incentive of 5% on a 400k condo and 20k down, my monthly payments would be about 1500 plus condo fees (max $500/month), which puts me at my current rent – but with a monthly mortgage carrying cost guaranteed for the first 5 of 25 years.

“My job is secure, but it does not offer much in the way of mobility, so I can’t exactly take off to more affordable pastures. Do I take the plunge? It is free money, after all. Thanks for being a voice of reason.”

The ‘incentive’ is the shared-equity mortgage. Olly can by a resale condo and get CMHC to foot 5% of the cost in a mortgage he doesn’t need to pay back until he sells, or 10% if the condo is new. If he unloads down the road for a loss, the feds eat it. If he sells for a profit, Ottawa gets its slice. The top qualifying house price has just been raised by T2 to $800,000 in the GTA, Van and Victoria, and the max income of borrowers is $150,000.

So, yes, it smells like free money.

Of course the more ‘incentives’ the government provides for people to buy houses, the more personal savings are plowed into real estate and the more personal debt is accumulated. Oliver is considering giving up 25% of his nestegg and taking on a $380,000 loan to get a condo which is likely identical to the one he rents – and for the same monthly outlay. He may know what his mortgage payment is for the next five years, but property taxes will likely rise, the condo fees are subject to change and there could always be a special assessment to repair the garage or replace the windows.

In short, he’d trade liquid wealth and freedom for debt and uncertainty. There’d be no physical or financial improvement, plus the end to personal mobility. And nobody ever spends their adulthood in a condo. So how does that even start to make sense? The only way he could benefit is through the capital appreciation of his unit – after closing costs to buy and commission to sell. There’s no guarantee this will occur.

That’s the thing about incentives. They exist to make you do things which are probably too stupid to contemplate otherwise. Oliver should stop and wonder why it is the federal government would want him to buy instead of rent. Yes, his vote is being bought. But more consequential is the amount of capital that will be sucked out of his hide. Fees to realtors, lawyers, mortgage brokers and lenders. Property taxes to municipal government. Insurance payments to brokers and insurers. More fees to condo corporations, their agents and property managers. Yet more fees to appraisers and home inspectors. And don’t get Ikea, Wayfair and Itsy, because everybody wants to fluff the nest. HST galore.

This is why governments promote real estate. By holding out the carrot of tax-free gains, then slathering on ‘incentives’ when that isn’t enough, they turn over the job of economic stimulation to all of the little risk-takers, gamblers and amateur speculators who fall for it. Never fails. Oliver may be  next.

So, kid, go ahead and take the money. But never call it free.

131 comments ↓

#1 Debtslavecreator on 10.06.19 at 2:35 pm

I work in banking and sell mortgages – along with the junk monetary policy this RADICAL CMHC program is a transfer of wealth from those working to the banking / govt elites
Direct transfer
Because this artificially cheapens credit which allows mostly almost bankrupt high risk borrowers inflate what they pay for shelter relative to their meagre incomes
Fake money creating fake demand which results in fake housing “prices”
Don’t do it folks
It’s corrupt – a tax on the middle class and those trying to get there
Horrible !!

#2 Ray Skunk on 10.06.19 at 2:35 pm

Shaping up to be a very interesting week in the election race.

Don’t want to see Garth served with an injunction; Twitter is your friend if you’re intrigued. Recommend starting with Warren Kinsella and go from there.

If your copy of the G&M wasn’t on your porch yesterday, you’ll find out why.

The “free” media in Canada can be suppressed with $600m and the help of the courts, but in the age of the Internet, there’s no way a lid can be kept on things for too long.

#3 Highlander on 10.06.19 at 2:41 pm

So, Olly, in other words…DON’T DO IT!!

#4 Yoyoyoyo on 10.06.19 at 3:00 pm

Just Truedebt

#5 BlogDog123 on 10.06.19 at 3:12 pm

Large numbers of people want to live in the GTA. Not as much immigration to smaller towns.

Not much housing land left in places like Mississauga. Houses too expensive. Big lots compared to 416.

How about this unpopular move: Greatly increase the supply of houses, laneway housing, allowing those wide 70 foot lots to be sliced into townhouses.

Do the above and you solve the supply problem. NIMBYism won’t allow it, but get rid of all that stress test and shared mortgage stuff and replace it with “make new renovation / lot-splitting supply easier” as a solution.

Less regs for building permits and changing zoning. But I guess those regs are provincial and local…

Supply goes up, prices go down.

#6 Yukon Elvis on 10.06.19 at 3:13 pm

Yah, take the free stuff. You will be taxed into oblivion later but we will all sink together so you will not be alone. Today’s free stuff is tomorrow’s taxes.

#7 CEW9 on 10.06.19 at 3:16 pm

As someone who owned a condo, you need to take a realistic look at all the ‘hidden’ costs.

$1000 cash calls twice a year on top of condo fees that ballooned by over 50% during our ownership period.

Over the course of 10 years we saw our property value soar from 275k to over 400k, then plummet to 225k before slowly creeping up to sell at 350k (minus fees of course).

When we got wind of a $1,000,000 assessment coming down for our complex of 30 units in the next few years for a major retaining wall retrofit, we bailed.

It was a nice starter home, but ultimately would have been a lead weight around my neck.

If you jump, check the water first. If you do take the leap, make sure to get on the condo board.

#8 Smartalox on 10.06.19 at 3:17 pm

Incentives exist to make you buy things that are otherwise too stupid to contemplate.

Something to reflect on whenever one is offered ‘low low finance rates’ or ‘free payments for a year!’ or ‘avocado toast’ or liquor store gift cards, or whatever.

#9 Alex on 10.06.19 at 3:26 pm

I had a couple of questions about this home buyer incentive which I couldn’t find answered online – I understand that if I were to sell later on, 5% (or 10%) of the proceeds would revert back to the government, but how does it apply to renting the unit out? Does the government take a cut, or is it straight out forbidden to rent the place out?

Also – if I make more than $150K (in YVR), am I ineligible for the incentive or does the government’s contribution simply cap out at where it would be if I made exactly $150K?

Forbidden. – Garth

#10 MF on 10.06.19 at 3:30 pm

I sympathize with O. Of course condos are overpriced beyond belief. Of course there are hidden costs everywhere. But capital appreciation is a given thanks to government meddling, failed central banking, and urbanization.

The alternative is renting so some other idiot “landlord” can take the capital gains, which again I believe are a given.

Rents are too high. Screw landlords.

He should buy.

MF

#11 Dr Talc on 10.06.19 at 3:31 pm

A supply problem in the second biggest country in the world.
That’s right. Thanks to the UN. Disenfranchisement, that’s what millennials can look forward to. Hopefully they “totally get that’.

#12 Not So New guy on 10.06.19 at 3:41 pm

#49 Nonplused on 10.06.19 at 12:02 am

Scott Adams nails it again.

The language of Biden: “There isn’t any evidence that there was a conflict”.

====================================

I prefer:

“I did nothing wrong and you can’t prove it!'”

#13 Sam on 10.06.19 at 3:47 pm

Shared mortgages ? What an embarrassment Canada has become

#14 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 3:49 pm

#85 SoggyShorts asks: Can we see your lists, please? So please explain to me the whole TDS thing …”

I figure the guy’s been in office almost three years now. Some of his big promises haven’t gone very far, but he certainly hasn’t done nothing.

Stuff Trump has done that I like:

– Tariffs on China
– Cap the state and local income/property tax deduction from federal taxes
– Putting the boots to Boeing for military contract overruns
– Keeping the military body count down so far (cheating according to my rules, as no official act or law did this; merely restraint)
– Enhanced border security. A complicated issue, to be sure

I could write paragraphs for each of these bullet points, about how he’s doing the right thing for the wrong reasons, or that I like the idea but not the implementation, or that I’m worried he won’t follow through, or my nuanced justifications, whatevs. Balance is a + for all of them.

I won’t bore the gang with stuff I don’t like. I might not be able to stop myself typing if I started — that’s my slant. Anyone else want to post confessions of the stuff they like/don’t like about the administration they don’t like/like? A pretty piss-poor response so far, except that it’s the weekend and people with lives are out living them.

#15 Damifino on 10.06.19 at 3:58 pm

That’s the thing about incentives. They exist to make you do things which are probably too stupid to contemplate otherwise.

A real gem, that is.

#16 Brian Ripley on 10.06.19 at 3:59 pm

#5 BlogDog123 “Large numbers of people want to live in the GTA.”

…and a lot of them in the GTA are not employed relative to other jurisdictions:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

In the last 10 years, employment rates have gone up:

3.3 % in British Columbia
5.2% in Vancouver

3.7% in Quebec
4.0% in Montreal

Contrast that to:

1.3% in Ontario
2.6% in Toronto

In Alberta and Calgary employment rates are negative: -3.6% and -3.0% respectively over the last 10 years.

By the way, on my yield curve chart, the 10yr less 2 year spread is in its 3 inverted consecutive print. The last time this happened 12 years ago the TSX Real Estate Index tipped over into plunge-ville:
http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

#17 Westcdn on 10.06.19 at 4:18 pm

My father’s influence got me a summer job as a rigger on a gypo forestry crew. I nearly died. I persevered because it was important to him. I got stronger thanks to the indigenous Al. He would suggest we go search “bird” in Alert Bay. I wasn’t much into the game. Later when I was helping my father with falling trees a forestry strike happened. My father was a contracted and owed nothing to unions. We kept working as he was paid piece.

Then a forester walked up to me and said they could see us still working from Alert Bay. He mentioned that a crowd would show up to nail my balls to a stump and push me over backward. Being young and stupid, I said just try it. My father was more in connection and we ceased.

#18 Paul on 10.06.19 at 4:31 pm

This is for all the politicians that come to you door at election time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsZPWsVNTqo

#19 Paul on 10.06.19 at 4:49 pm

#13 Sam on 10.06.19 at 3:47 pm
Shared mortgages ? What an embarrassment Canada has become
————————————————————————————————
Who would ever take the Government in as a partner in anything. They will want part of the profit and tax you on the rest. I’m from the Government I’m here to help!

#20 Basil Exposition on 10.06.19 at 4:57 pm

No worries O. There is no shame in driving a kia. You’ll be stuck in gridlocked traffic just like every other car in the GTA.
English language debate this week. Being moderated by an all female group of journalists that could have been selected by Katie Telford. I guess Andrew Coyne wasn’t available? Or anyone from the Globe or Post media?

#21 Mark Williams on 10.06.19 at 4:58 pm

DELETED

#22 Smoking Man on 10.06.19 at 4:59 pm

If the rumours circulating on Twitter why Justin Trudeau lost his teachers job are true.

He’s finished…

#23 Levi on 10.06.19 at 5:22 pm

Do you guys know if the government has a say on the sale price for a property purchased with the Federal Home Buyers Incentive Plan? Can I sell the property for 50% of buy price?

#24 I'm old enough ... on 10.06.19 at 5:25 pm

to remember the really “free” money. Buy your first house and get two large from the Feds and another two large from the Provs. No contributions … just apply and receive your money. Was about 5% of the purchase price too, and this was north of the Fraser. Today most “free” stuff comes with attachments …

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 5:36 pm

@#2 Ray Skunk
“The “free” media in Canada can be suppressed with $600m and the help of the courts, but in the age of the Internet, there’s no way a lid can be kept on things for too long.”
++++

I’m no fan of T2 butt….
Unless Time magazine has another “blockbuster” story about T2….with sign depositions from former students…..this is just another internet trashfest

#26 Shirl Clarts on 10.06.19 at 5:39 pm

True, that the home incentive is just an offering to make it appear that they care and are taking action on housing affordability. Nothing more.

But consider this: you and all the other mills are thinking the same ( regardless if you read this blog). So if you think this program will drive up demand, do it quickly. If you can handle even more risk, do it before the election.

Or wait and see. But be warned; that 400k condo might be 500k in 18 months.

Its a gamble no question, and the big hockey stick increases are in the rear view mirror. So ask yourself; am i a betting man or an investor?

#27 Remembrancer on 10.06.19 at 5:55 pm

#14 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 3:49 pm
#85 SoggyShorts asks: Can we see your lists, please? So please explain to me the whole TDS thing …”

I figure the guy’s been in office almost three years now. Some of his big promises haven’t gone very far, but he certainly hasn’t done nothing.

Stuff Trump has done that I like:

– Tariffs on China
—————————————————–
You of course mean, tariffs on goods imported from China, paid for by American consumers with little or no elasticity, right? #TariffsAreTaxes

#28 Ace Goodheart on 10.06.19 at 6:21 pm

Interesting situation shaping up in the USA.

The Dems have promised to basically change about a hundred years’ worth of common law principles, in the name of gun control.

They want to make gun manufacturers liable if their guns are used to kill people.

Throughout history, the manufacturer of a product which, when used correctly, poses no risk, or which contains sufficient warning labels and tags to warn people of the risk, is not liable, if the product hurts someone.

Thus, if you use a kitchen knife to murder your neighbour, the knife company cannot be sued (because the knife was not used for its intended purpose).

Road laws: back when cars were a novelty, a lot of people ended up getting killed, by a car screaming down a formerly safe country lane or city street, and crashing into them.

This caused a problem for the drivers of the cars, as they would be charged and put in prison or hanged, for the crime of running someone down.

Enter motorist associations. They lobbied the government hard to create rules of the road. As long as the car driver is following those rules, they can mow down anyone they please, and it is not their fault.

The result is our modern “right of way” system, whereby if you decide to walk out into traffic, and someone hits you and you are killed, that is your own darn fault, and the driver of the car is rendered blameless. After all, he/she was following the rules of the road, and had the right of way.

What am I getting at with all of this?

Well, currently technology exists which, if used on all new cars, in 20 years’ time, would render death from drinking and driving a thing of the past. There are simple interlock systems that can be used to prevent a drunk driver, from starting and operating a vehicle. They work 100%. A person with alcohol in their system, cannot start or drive the car.

Why are these systems not put into every new car?

Well, why would they be? A car, used properly, following rules of the road, cannot be to blame for killing anyone.

If someone drives it drunk, they are not using it according to the manufacturer’s intended purpose, and therefore, the manufacturer is not to blame.

All of this is about to change.

With gun control, of all things.

Stay tuned……

#29 BC Renovator on 10.06.19 at 6:54 pm

Fees to realtors, lawyers, mortgage brokers and lenders. Property taxes to municipal government. Insurance payments to brokers and insurers. More fees to condo corporations, their agents and property managers.

_______

No Realtor fees when purchasing
Legal is $1,000 roughly
Banks pay the Mortgage Broker
Insurance on my new(ish) Condo in BC is $90 monthly, all hidden in the Rent. The Strata covers the Insurance, which yes, you pay into.

Even if O outgrows the unit he can still rent it out (as long as he buys in a building with no rental controls). Buy, diversification is key. Not everyone is a wiz at handling investments. Long term Real Estate has shown us; it wins

You have a few things to learn. – Garth

#30 Linda on 10.06.19 at 6:55 pm

It’s a bit difficult to tell, because when a condo building was built is apparently a factor, but as per Google the ‘average’ size of a condo in GTA is just under 800 square feet. For a single person that is an adequate amount of space to live in. Olly may or may not have a S.O. in his life, but not a few singles have decided to buy rather than wait. Age 35 is old enough to know what he wants out of life. As for the ‘young’ card, he is already past the halfway point to age 65. If he is living & working in the GTA it makes sense for Olly to buy if home ownership is truly what he wants & let’s face it – a $90K gross salary will NOT allow his purchasing a house in that inflated RE market, even if current prices dropped by half.

#31 Tony on 10.06.19 at 7:01 pm

Re: #22 Smoking Man on 10.06.19 at 4:59 pm

You give the voters too much credit. I’ll be flabbergasted if Trudeau doesn’t win by a landslide majority.

#32 Grunt on 10.06.19 at 7:14 pm

In the GTA once flood protection is complete the Port Lands will open up a whole new area for redevelopment.

#33 Something New on 10.06.19 at 7:15 pm

#28 Ace Goodheart – This is shocking if true, because this sounds like communism to me.

#34 Boombust on 10.06.19 at 7:23 pm

Any policy measures that might be introduced will do nothing to stem the downward trajectory of the correction now underway in Vancouver; the die is now cast.

Much more downside to come; any measures would be like pushing on a string.

#35 reynolds531 on 10.06.19 at 7:30 pm

#28 ace

First that’s a long shot to get passed.

Secondly there’s enough military surplus out there to keep everyone shooting for a hundred years. You gonna sue Putin when some gets shot with a fifty year old sks?

#36 J. Canuck on 10.06.19 at 7:37 pm

Ace Goodheart:
They want to make gun manufacturers liable if their guns are used to kill people.

**********************************
This behaviour is similar to suing oil companies for engaging in their business … they sell us gasoline, we burn it, CO2 hits the air, the earth is destroyed. But somehow, the user is entirely blameless.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 8:05 pm

@#35 J Canuck
This behaviour is similar to suing oil companies for engaging in their business … they sell us gasoline, we burn it, CO2 hits the air, the earth is destroyed. But somehow, the user is entirely blameless.”
++++

True.
If the recent events in large Canadian cities are any indication…
Laws for illegal guns are already in place….
We should also ban kitchen knives and rental vans.

But then again, in Canada, the penalties dont seem to fit the crime…
And therein lies the problem

#38 45north on 10.06.19 at 8:09 pm

Ace Goodheart:

automobile law suits

SpeedKore is in the business of restoring old cars. SpeedKore took a 1970 Barracuda and dropped a 6.2 litre V8 into it. Kevin Hart – I’ve never heard of him – bought it. Apparently one of his friends rolled it, injuring himself and Kevin Hart. They are now suing SpeedKore.

What a bunch of whiners.

https://driving.ca/features/feature-story/motor-mouth-what-do-joe-biden-justin-trudeau-and-kevin-hart-have-in-common

#39 45north on 10.06.19 at 8:10 pm

CEW9: If you jump, check the water first. If you do take the leap, make sure to get on the condo board.

my cousin is on the condo board. It’s not for the faint-of-heart.

#40 Rumours Everywhere on 10.06.19 at 8:10 pm

I deal in facts, and here before you is a hidden video of our PM in an interview showing how things are done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JziHQyZEQoU

#41 Wet Coast Elector on 10.06.19 at 8:33 pm

It’s funny to see the different perspective on the election from the other coast: only two clear themes … tax cuts and, above all, sucking up to needy people.

It seems that it’s only “Climate Change” on the Wet Coast.

#42 Reality is stark on 10.06.19 at 8:38 pm

Goosing the housing sector is a no brainer for the government. It is so easy to subsequently tax it through property tax hikes. The Feds can save by transferring less to the Provinces and the Provinces save by transferring less to the municipalities. The municipality is forced to raise property taxes.
Housing adds no productive capacity to the nation but the government doesn’t care, their job is simply to bamboozle the people.
One day the chickens will come home to roost as deflation in the west takes hold.
When the dollar hits 50 cents you’ll know you’ve been had by the socialists and their policies. The idea that you can have something for nothing into perpetuity is hollow reasoning. It is typical social justice warrior reasoning, causes with no economic merit.

#43 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 8:42 pm

“You of course mean, tariffs on goods imported from China, paid for by American consumers”

Sure. I’d even be in favour of a rider stating that whenever said consumer bought something made in China, they’d also get a complementary shot in the nads.

Hope that clarifies things.

#44 conan on 10.06.19 at 8:53 pm

#22 Smoking Man on 10.06.19 at 4:59 pm
If the rumours circulating on Twitter why Justin Trudeau lost his teachers job are true.

He’s finished…

___________

It better be good because people are getting “tired” of the Cons and their dirty tricks.

Yankee Doodle Dandy looks bad …….. A lot of people remember the serious grief that the Cons “rained” down on other politicians who had duel citizenship.

Does not play well ….
Not well at all…..

#45 Yukon Elvis on 10.06.19 at 8:56 pm

DELETED

#46 Sail Away on 10.06.19 at 9:22 pm

Here are ten things I like about Trump:

1. Secured the release of 3 Americans being held as prisoners by North Korea. These people were never coming home otherwise. This one alone justifies his leadership.
2. Refused to bomb Iran over the loss of a US drone as the expected human casualties were too high
3. Immediately responded by bombing a Syrian air base over proven government genocide
4. In process of securing the borders from unauthorized entry
5. Implemented $4.6b humanitarian aid package for migrant care at the US/Mexico border
6. Moved US embassy to Jerusalem
7. Publicly condemned and refused a planned meeting with the Taliban after they (the Taliban) detonated a car bomb the day before
8. Implemented ‘Safer Prescribing Plan’ to reduce opioid prescriptions by 33%
9. He considers and treats Russia, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia as valuable global citizens
10. He doesn’t apologize. There’s been entirely too much apologizing lately by all level of people. It’s done- get over it and move ahead.

Now, please… feel free to froth away.

#47 gC on 10.06.19 at 9:23 pm

I hate to break it to you but there is no way this government or any future Canadian government will ever be able to make housing affordable in the GTA or Vancouver LM. There is no policy they can employ to counteract the fact that we must allow 300,000 immigrants (and even more very soon) a year into the country just to kick the can to next year.
We have all collectively lived beyond our means in a tremendous way and we are demanding the government provide more and more and more.
The Liberal government promised 1 million immigrants would be granted entry between 2017-2019 and they will have to raise that number significantly going forward.
These immigrants are not coming here with dreams of starting a new life in Lumby BC.
They are not looking for peices of property in Moose Jaw.
And they have no intention of living in an igloo in Nunavut.
Every single one of them are moving to 604 or GTA.
Yes there are exceptions. A significant amount are going to Montreal and a couple are going to Edmonton, Calgary and Regina.
These people want homes. They have no intention of moving half way across the world with their families just to live under a bridge.
If you were shocked at the way 604 and GTA changed over the last 20 years just wait for the next 10.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Immigration averages 0.8% annually of our population. Newcomers are not the problem. Cheap rates, dumb policies and 9 million Millennials competing for houses are. – Garth

#48 Dumbwealth on 10.06.19 at 9:38 pm

You don’t solve supply problems by tinkering with demand.

#49 SoggyShorts on 10.06.19 at 9:49 pm

#28 Ace Goodheart on 10.06.19 at 6:21 pm
Interesting situation shaping up in the USA.

The Dems have promised to basically change about a hundred years’ worth of common law principles, in the name of gun control.
They want to make gun manufacturers liable if their guns are used to kill people.
*******************************
As usual your post is laced with bullshit. They are trying to repeal the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act. not“hundreds of years of common law principles.”

If a company in any other industry markets or distributes a product in unsafe ways they can be held liable. The whole gun industry gets a pass because of that 2005 act.

This is the internet: 2 seconds of googling can save you from looking foolish permanently.

#50 gC on 10.06.19 at 9:50 pm

Immigration averages 0.8% annually of our population. Newcomers are not the problem. Cheap rates, dumb policies and 9 million Millennials competing for houses are. – Garth

Debt is the problem Garth. The only way for this dog and pony show to continue is to increase immigration.
How many millions of boomers will be reliant on our social health system over the next 2 decades?
If we want to pay for all this (we can’t but we’ll can service it) immigration must increase.

Look 40,000 immigrants approx moved to metro Vancouver in 2018. But metro only build 22,000 new homes and that number includes all living spaces.

This is right from metros own report:

Future immigration will be the primary variable affecting future population growth and related, housing, employment and land use considerations in Metro Vancouver.

#51 Sebee on 10.06.19 at 9:54 pm

Garth,

You swim in these Canadian debt numbers, could we have an update on the situation?

Also, any data on private lending? Few days ago I read about some new private lender plan.
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/ontario-weighing-registry-for-private-mortgage-lenders-as-sector-grows

In there was also this:

Data from a provincial regulator showed private lending was still a small part of Ontario’s $132-billion mortgage brokerage market, but that it accounted for around eight per cent, or $10.6 billion, of the total dollar value of all mortgage transactions reported in 2017 by brokerages, which was up from $6 billion in 2014, the report said.

Note, no significant post stress test data, but why would government want more visibility to this segment if there weren’t concerns about it?

#52 7SIX on 10.06.19 at 10:21 pm

Over the first five years of that $380k mortgage, about $58k of principal will have been paid, assuming a 2.6% interest rate. Your argument only works if there is a massive increase in taxes or condo fees, or a major fall in GTA condo prices, none of which seem that likely. His rent could certainly increase from the $2k baseline, also. So his cost of owning is about $2,500 / month including fees and taxes, of which about $1,000 is paying down the debt. If his rent was $1,000 and he could instead of buying invest the $1,500 delta, then it would be as clear cut as you’re suggesting, but as it is he’s possibly ahead by buying even without any appreciation.

#53 JSS on 10.06.19 at 10:38 pm

High house prices only a problem in GTA and GVR.
Everyone else is ok.
Especially in the prairies. Might not have a job, but hey the house prices are relatively cheap! EI can cover the mortgage, plus have some money left over for the local casino! What a deal!

#54 Sold Out on 10.06.19 at 10:39 pm

DELETED

#55 Randy on 10.06.19 at 11:23 pm

Jian Ghomeshi said that Justin is innocent of all allegations. So there.

#56 acdel on 10.06.19 at 11:30 pm

#14 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper

Like him or hate him; he did what he said he would do.
So does one dislike the guy for fulfilling his election promises or does one say meh and elect a guy that has done nothing but lie to Canadians from day one; you know the one; Starts with J and ends with a T; what an upcoming disaster!

#57 acdel on 10.06.19 at 11:52 pm

Liberal/socialist voters have lost all sense of direction in life.

Duh, who is going to pay for it while thousands of companies have fled Canada to greener pastures; so naive socialists are!!

Capitalist companies have donated billions to education; inoculations; homelessness, hospitals, universites, arts, community projects, etc!

#58 Fortune500 on 10.07.19 at 12:19 am

Leveraging into overpriced real estate has been a winning strategy here since 2008. It looks like both the government and the populace at large are intent on keeping things that way. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. As many priced out people on this blog can attest.

Sure, things might one day correct, but it is unlikely to be for decades to come. Unfortunately millennials have the choice between falling behind and massive debt that could one day end in destruction. But meanwhile, they have to live a life.

#59 Al on 10.07.19 at 12:44 am

If decent houses in desirable areas end up costing 800k in those cities after the next recession, that free 40-80k may be worth considering, if prices drop that much it also may coincide with almost free mortgages.

#60 Qualified Divide on 10.07.19 at 1:41 am

I look forward to November when the HWY 1 is barricaded and The New Republic announces that not one red cent will ever to sent to Quebec. Trump will most assuredly underwrite another Colour Revolution and welcome AB, Sask and Man., into the fraternity of free nations. November 1st., the birth of a nation, the death of Canada’s dictatorship.

#61 AGuyInVancouver on 10.07.19 at 2:19 am

#43 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 8:42 pm
“You of course mean, tariffs on goods imported from China, paid for by American consumers”

Sure. I’d even be in favour of a rider stating that whenever said consumer bought something made in China, they’d also get a complementary shot in the nads.

Hope that clarifies things.
– – –
Already discredited by the school’s headmaster. I’m surprised Garth let’s that kind of innuendo and smear to be published on this blog. It’s on par with Pizzagate and assorted other right wing nuttery.

#62 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 3:47 am

Immigration is just a convenient excuse, justification for the sky high house prices. Immigrants coming here make 30 k before taxes, if lucky to find a job, hard to justify 1.5 mil shacks in GTA or 800 k glass condos.

The fault is with the lenders and bank regulators – i.e CHMC, the morally corrupt and financially dangerous practice of mortgage ‘insurance’ which (higher that the government debt) is just a convenient way to offload mortgage/loan risk from the lenders to the taxpayers. And people even don’t know that, they think that this is a widespread practice citing Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, that are mortgage lenders not insurers with much smaller portfolios relative to the market. There is no such annual as the idiotic CHMC anywhere in the world.

Over 1 trillion in ‘insured’ mortgages folks. Read uber-ultra subprimes.

Without it house prices would have been 30 – 35 % of current in GTA and Vancouver, the whole Ontario and BC.

As of that folly now of course we can not have rates normalized and the hungry lenders want more of it – humongous profits and fees just to administer a mortgage without any skin in the game in terms of risk.
Read parasites/cancer in an already collapsing body/economy.

As for BoC the amount of incompetence and stupidity in that body is simply astonishing, amazing.

#1 Debtslavecreator on 10.06.19 at 2:35 pm
absolutely agree. Junk policies, incompetence, greed combined with exceptional brainwashing.

It is too late for any meaning action though.

Let’s enjoy the fall before we hit the ground.
My advice for the young will be to just asap leave this place.

‘Abandon hope all ye who enter here’ – the sign on the door of the (real frozen) hell – debt driven slave labour work camp/sweatshop.

As for the savers, retirees and RRSP holders – good luck with the roaring inflation and the coming even more aggressive taxation.

Remember folks: You did it yourself.

#63 Axehead on 10.07.19 at 4:55 am

#29 indeed has a lot to learn.

I choose to rent a condo in Calgary vs buy (thanks Garth) even though the market is depressed here and I could pick up a good deal. Why? Freedom, capital preservation, risk avoidance and lower expenses. I could pay monthly $800 for condo fees, $200 taxes, $150 internet and electrical, $2200 mortguage (480k condo with 20% down) OR rent same unit for $2000/month furnished.

Duh.

Rent Olly rent.

#64 Axehead on 10.07.19 at 5:39 am

Here in Calgary, I choose to rent a condo (thanks Garth) rather than buy, even though prices are low and real estate is depressed. Why? Freedom, capital preservation, cost reduction. I could buy a $480k condo and pay $2200 mortgage (after 20% down), $800 condo fees, $200 taxes and $150 internet and electrical OR rent the whole thing for $2000 a month (furnished).

$3350 vs $2000 per month?

Rent Olly Rent.

#65 crazyfox on 10.07.19 at 6:20 am

This federal election’s top 5 issues back in july according to polling:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/climate-change-canada-election-2019_ca_5d2cb2c6e4b08938b0990248

#1 cost of living. #2 healthcare #3 climate change #4 taxes #5 housing affordability.

It’s devolved over the past few weeks into racism and who’s the least American. The election is still 2 weeks away and lord knows what’s next, 2 weeks is a long time. Hopefully, the issues that effect all Canadians from economics, income inequality, housing, debt private and public to trade, foreign policy, pollution and all of the relevant issues including the greatest threats to our fine nation, hopefully all of the most important issues come to the forefront once again.

The media wants a horse race for profit and they have it. The electorate… lets just say that democracy works when the electorate is honest with itself and media explores all of the issues as best it can, while democracy fails when the media gives way to greed and propaganda and playing favorites, when election laws are made inferior by previous governments seeking re-election and the electorate exaggerates and engages in hyperbole and lies.

Our election laws are fine for now and there’s something to be said for that. But, here’s an example of electorate failings at its worst in a minor sense but it goes to show, right, one of many. A woman posts a false argument about how Canada doesn’t have enough land to plant 2 billion trees for the Libs to fulfill their promise of 2 billion trees to be planted in Canada over 10 years in an effort to fight climate change. Here’s the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGlnxkLoqts

Literally every one of her arguments are false including her claim that trees really don’t capture carbon. If not for constraints I would go through them all but the most obvious is her claim that its not logistically possible to plant 2 billion trees over 10 years in Canada because we don’t have enough land, and yet we do. We will use BC as an example with 925,186 square kms of land, although Ontario has 917,741 km2 and Quebec has 1,365,128 sq km’s for national perspective.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia

In 2018, 1,351,314 hectare’s were lost to fire in BC:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_British_Columbia_wildfires

A km is 1,000 meters x 1,000 meters or 100 square hectares. In 2018, BC lost 13, 518 square km’s of forest to fire, or 1.473% of the province to flames. To reforest what was burned alone in BC in 2018, on average 1600 trees would be planted per hectare. (I know this by? having planted trees for 17 consecutive seasons in BC all over the province, this is the average. It’s less on the islands and more up north) 1600 x 1,351,314 hectares = 2.162 billion trees. To be fair, the majority of these burns will self regenerate with trees over time… but some will not. There is no industrial profit to pay for the planting on areas that are lost to fire so unless the provinces or federal government ponies up the dough, the areas that don’t naturally regenerate simply won’t come back.

The main determining factor of lack of regen is the intensity of heat in the fire and changes to soil chemistry. Did I mention that BC’s forest fire season last year was unprecedented and that these fires are burning more hot than ever before, all directly due to climate change? The previous record was 1.314% set in 2017 and before that was 1958 at .9%. BC lost 2.787% of it’s province to fire in just 2 short years. With all the fuel left behind from blight and pine beetle infestation, there is much more to come. Continued slowing and re-routed jet streams… future Arctic ocean summer free ice… much, much more to come and there isn’t a peep of this from media. Canada, you have no idea what’s coming. And the thing is, with climate change taking out pine in BC, what are the choices for species to replace?

The province of BC on average plants 218 million trees a year or 2.18 billion over 10 years to replace logged trees but where is the plan for all the forest fires going up in smoke over the next 10 years not just in BC but everywhere? There are 2 parties with plans to up reforestation as a counter for changes to climate and boy, are they coming. The Lib’s 2 billion tree plan over 10 years and the Greens 10 billion trees over 30 years. The rest of the parties don’t even recognize it as an issue. The comment section on the video I provided is a testament to the blind leading the blind. It’s one giant mockery giving us insights as to just how politics by itself shapes perception. If you are for industry politically, you don’t even recognize pollution on social media and mock those who do. This is politics in a nutshell, heavily influenced by western media, oil and gas lobby interests here AND abroad under the backdrop of a light crude industry in particular, highly vulnerable in the coming years to a major shift towards the electrification of green cars and solar/wind btw. And climate. Say, did I mention how propaganda and a dishonest electorate can wreck democracies?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/sci-tech/hot-streak-september-fourth-month-in-a-row-to-break-or-tie-global-heat-records-1.4626386

#66 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 6:31 am

Renters taxpayers must be trilled to subsidize with their taxes the poor debt junkie horny homeowners buying ultra expensive houses they can’t afford through the shared equity program.

It is a brilliant move, that again does not exist anywhere else in the world. Take shared/tax resources for the benefit of debtors and the banks. This thingy will go for as long as any available resource is committed to housing, including probably purchase with CPP funds.

I bet the shared equity program will eventually cover for the purchase of 2nd french villa.

The prudent will pay the bill for this one folks, as it always happens.

#67 The Fear Folks are out ! on 10.07.19 at 6:36 am

‘…let’s watch the fall..’

Lol, wasn’t that suppose to have happened already?:)

Some ever learn,is what it is

#68 att on 10.07.19 at 6:56 am

Garth, I can’t tell if you are being sarcastic or not when you say climate change doesn’t matter in this election. I usually get through your whole blog post but I just stopped reading it there. Have a nice day sir.

To the majority of urban voters, it seems not to matter. Hence the comment. – Garth

#69 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 6:59 am

Personally Olly, I would look at commuting options and buy a single detached somewhere more “affordable”. That is if the commuting option is not completely soul sucking and the house isn’t in a complete dump of a neighborhood.

That house does exist. Just need to expand your horizons.

Plus you’re 35. Put down the TorontoLife Magazine and get out of the condo.

#70 jess on 10.07.19 at 7:30 am

The problem of speaking directly

But according to a recent investigation by VoxUkraine, Zelensky’s Facebook page had the most active fake users of any Ukrainian politician — 27,926 inauthentic accounts. They posted almost a quarter of all comments during the period analyzed. Similar ratios were seen for other top politicians.”

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/inside-a-ukrainian-troll-farm

#71 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 7:43 am

#68 att on 10.07.19 at 6:56 am

‘Fortunately’ T2’s carbon tax is working.
5th in a row/very cold winter coming to Toronto:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2019/08/farmers-almanac-forecasts-brutally-cold-winter-toronto/

Today in things you probably don’t need to be told if you’ve lived in Toronto for any amount of time: Winter is going to suck.

The Farmer’s Almanac, which has been using an ancient formula to forecast weather conditions as much as 16 months in advance with up to 85 per cent accuracy for more than 200 years, is calling for a long and volatile winter across Canada.

“Our long-range forecast is calling for yet another freezing, frigid, and frosty winter for two-thirds of the country,” said the Almanac’s editor, Peter Geiger in the outlook. “If you remember last winter’s freezing temperatures, you’re going to want to be prepared.”

We’ll see “bitterly cold conditions” east of the Rockies to Quebec and the Maritimes for much of the season, with the coldest snap expected to come during the final week of January.

“During this time, the Arctic air could cause temperatures to drop as low as -40°C over the Prairies,” explains the forecast. “As the freezing air blows across the Great Lakes, intense bursts of heavy snow showers and squalls could, in extreme cases, deposit perhaps 70 cm in just a single day, especially in the snowbelt of Ontario.

Friends turning on the heating in June this year.

So he/T2 wins in a landslide.
You see, it was easy, tax the sheeple and the weather changes/sarcasm off.

Let’s tell the world how our climate policy/as the banks/ is the most prudent, superior, safe and stable in the whole world.

#72 NoName on 10.07.19 at 7:51 am

#65 crazyfox on 10.07.19 at 6:20 am

climate change election issue
How dare you?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/#66b120f835f7

It’s funny even BG start back pedaling on climate change when he sow all funnies coming out from woodwork…

https://www.businessinsider.my/elon-musk-space-plans-delusional-energy-scientist-vaclav-smil-says-2019-10/

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614331/bill-gates-says-its-time-to-redirect-solar-and-wind-subsidies-is-he-right/

#73 Dharma Bum on 10.07.19 at 8:17 am

Jolly Olly:

Real men buy and pay for their own houses.

I know this to be true.

Jordan Peterson said so.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 8:20 am

@#46 Froth Away

Well its good to know Trump sits at the right hand of the All Mighty.
It will be interesting to see which White House minion spews the truth 1st to the Impeachment investigation.
Staring a a hefty prison sentence for lying under oath tends to do that….

If Trump has proved anything over the past few decades.
Loyalty to his wives, his lawyers, his staff, anyone. ….. isnt in his play book.

#75 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 9:31 am

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 8:20 am
@#46 Froth Away

Well its good to know Trump sits at the right hand of the All Mighty.

———————————

Why the snark? I gave ten concrete and measurable items Trump’s done that I find good.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:36 am

The BC Govt lies about govt car insurance get better by the day.
ICBC spokesperson trying to justify the “new” ICBC rates states,…….
” $6400 per year for a new driver is a good deal. That same driver could be paying as much as $12,900 per year in Ontario….”

Any Ontario drivers care to comment?

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/icbc-sticker-shock-young-drivers-walloped-under-new-rate-system

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:41 am

@#75 Froth Away
Snark?
Are we reading Dr. Seuss now?

Nah, I also stated measurable comments, Ex wives, Ex lawyers, ex staff….

But its admirable that you avoid all his misogynistic comments( “just grab em by the crotch”), anti immigrant comments( “go back to where you came from”), on and on and on.

Trump is a boorish, bragging, balding, blonde?, bovine.

#78 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 9:43 am

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 8:20 am
@#46 Froth Away

It will be interesting to see which White House minion spews the truth 1st to the Impeachment investigation.
Staring a a hefty prison sentence for lying under oath tends to do that….

If Trump has proved anything over the past few decades.
Loyalty to his wives, his lawyers, his staff, anyone. ….. isnt in his play book.

———————————–

And also why the continued speculation? If anti-Trumpers were held to their record of speculation vs results, the accuracy would be zero. The continued crazy speculation defies logic.

If the same approach were applied to investing, you’d go broke immediately. Being wrong time after time after time does not lead to success.

#79 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 9:49 am

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:36 am
The BC Govt lies about govt car insurance get better by the day.
ICBC spokesperson trying to justify the “new” ICBC rates states,…….
” $6400 per year for a new driver is a good deal. That same driver could be paying as much as $12,900 per year in Ontario….”

Any Ontario drivers care to comment?

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/icbc-sticker-shock-young-drivers-walloped-under-new-rate-system

——————————————————————

Wow. What the hell is going on in BC?!

I have no idea about 18 year olds, but I pay $1,200 a year in car insurance a year for car insurance in Ontario. I’m 37.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.07.19 at 9:56 am

#76
I’m sure IHTC will weigh in.
We used to have this system in place in the 70s.
What’s wrong with an actuarial based car insurance.
Good way to wean kids of the car obsessed culture.
Let them take public transport for free, I say.

#81 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 10:43 am

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:41 am
@#75 Froth Away

….its admirable that you avoid all his misogynistic comments( “just grab em by the crotch”), anti immigrant comments( “go back to where you came from”), on and on and on.

———————————-

I listed ten things I like about Trump. Period.

To introduce other elements would be illogical, since that’s another discussion.

#82 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 10:46 am

#30 Linda on 10.06.19 at 6:55 pm
_______

I suppose what it boils down to, is Ollie needs to make a bet on his future pathway.

It’s tough to make bets like this when you’re 35. Not too old to end up married (with kids ), not young enough give good odds for it. When I was 35 I was already married, had two kids, was half way through paying my mortgage, and had a decent nest egg on the go. I had a pathway laid out at 25 and we were able to commit and go all in on our goals.

Tough call – if it were me, there’s no way I’d buy a condo with the idea of living in it for 2-3 decades, especially starting at 35. Not a chance. A single 90K income ain’t enough for owning in the GTA, living as a broke condo owner will get old fast. I’d also be nauseous at the idea of shelling out anywhere near a condo mortgage payment for rent.

Here’s a couple options:

1. Find a gainfully employed Mrs. Ollie. Two incomes make all the difference. I know some couples who are almost assuredly together mostly for quality of life reasons as opposed to “love”. Lots of different avenues open here if you don’t adhere to a specific doctrine when it comes to marriage.

2. Is that a govy job you’ve got there? Can you transfer to the same position in a smaller town? You’d probably make the same $, which means you can live the same life you are now (if not better) even while buying an actual SFD (a very nice one too).

3. Buy a crap dump sfd in the gta and fix it up. Do you have skills Ollie? (Note: Women like skills – see point#1) This is a good bet if you can buy cheap enough and do the work mostly yourself. Desperate situations call for desperate solutions.

#83 Phylis on 10.07.19 at 10:51 am

#76. Ontario rate, i figure mine is pretty good. I’m paying $134 a month and they wanted me to pay more for accident forgiveness. Collision incl. It seems to me that one shouldnt have to pay for forgiveness.

#84 Remembrancer on 10.07.19 at 10:57 am

#79 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 9:49 am
I have no idea about 18 year olds, but I pay $1,200 a year in car insurance a year for car insurance in Ontario. I’m 37.
—————————————————
$1400 +/- $200 annual seems to be a nice round number insurance companies use in eastern GTA at least for adults 25+ based on completely unscientific household survey over number of years and w/ no convictions for 30s, 40s & 50s and different types of vehicles…

18-21 range of $12900 w/o extenuating circumstances ie multiple convictions, chronic backintothings-ititus etc is possible but that would be a F.O. we don’t want your business quote (I’ve seen one like that). Companies more interested in the family business would maybe quote $4800-$6000, tops. Still outrageous though for accident / conviction free since 16 years old IMHO… That’s on the parents’ policy/parent registered vehicle with a 21 YO male listed as primary driver BTW for a similar 2014 car…

Even more horror stories in westend GTA that I’m sure someone can recount…

Outside GTA / ON rural areas will be less…

#85 TurnerNation on 10.07.19 at 11:01 am

SNC Lavalin stock price just lept a dollar upwards.
Must be telegraphing a Liberal victory….

#86 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 11:12 am

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:36 am
The BC Govt lies about govt car insurance get better by the day.
ICBC spokesperson trying to justify the “new” ICBC rates states,…….
” $6400 per year for a new driver is a good deal. That same driver could be paying as much as $12,900 per year in Ontario….”

Any Ontario drivers care to comment?

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/icbc-sticker-shock-young-drivers-walloped-under-new-rate-system
____

Just went through this. Eldest son has G2, so not fully licensed yet. His rate in his own name was 4500.00/year at 17 years old.

He opted to go under our policy for 650.00/yr.

He might pay 12,900.00 if he had 5 drunk and stoned accidents involving fatalities and had to go on Facility. Facility is for the worst of the worst – not normal folks.

$6400.00/year is a galactic rip off for a new driver.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 11:20 am

@#79 Captain Uppa
“I pay $1,200 a year in car insurance a year for car insurance in Ontario. I’m 37.”

+++++
I have a 42% “discount” off the regular ICBC insurance rates due to my decades of accident free driving.
( 43% is the maximum “discount” one can get).

I paid $1985.00 for one year of car insurance on a 5 year old truck.
My rates will be increasing next year when I renew due to the new ICBC rate rise.

ICBC.
Proving once again .
Anything the private sector can do the public sector will do for 4 times the cost.

ICBC rates jumped again in Sept of this year.
The NDP created it in the 1970’s so they cant be the one’s to nuke it.
The provincial Liberals used it’s excessive cash reserves as a cash cow to balance their budgets.

Now it’s a bloated, broken, bureaucracy and dragging both parties down…

It will be a major election issue next time around.
Count on it.

#88 Robert Ash on 10.07.19 at 11:20 am

I’m going to watch the English Debate this evening. I am sad to say this but I am going to have a Drink or two to calm my nerves, as I think I will witness a serious problem with Canada. That being no rationale Leadership. I am semi retired but will use the comments, and suggestions, to help in my Investment guidance. I do not think it will be a positive discussion, with respect to our Energy Industries, which I am considering Investing in, as the Securities, for these Companies, have been challenged, considerably in the last 4 years…. I am an advocate that we need all forms, of Energy, and aside from the obvious Financial Benefit, to our Country, we can help the world, with ethical and innovative Energy Solutions… It would be refreshing, if our Leadership, looked to the Positive Influence we as an exporting Nation can have on Western European countries. Our innate Natural Advantage being hobbled by folks, that don’t see the opportunities to use our Energy to advance societies, around the Globe, grow our national wealth, and assist other integrated Economies.. but the saddest part of not doing this… ie Energy and Resource development, is the lack of funds, to transition to and lead the Renewables Industry… It is a matter of timing folks… and self inflicted Economic, contraction, is not the best strategy.

#89 Car Insurance on 10.07.19 at 11:21 am

The used car purchased was dated 2013, so she needs to take off the collision rider for starters.

#90 Mike on 10.07.19 at 11:24 am

I own a condo in Calgary. It’s even in a great are close to downtown. I paid $325K for in in 2008 when I got divorced…right before the 2009 financial meltdown.
Today, I could sell it for $275K based on other units in the building. Not complaining. Just my experience.
Looking back, I should have rented. Buying isn’t always the best option.

#91 n1tro on 10.07.19 at 11:32 am

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 9:36 am
The BC Govt lies about govt car insurance get better by the day.
ICBC spokesperson trying to justify the “new” ICBC rates states,…….
” $6400 per year for a new driver is a good deal. That same driver could be paying as much as $12,900 per year in Ontario….”

Any Ontario drivers care to comment?
——————-
BS. G2 license pays around $220 a month or $2640 a year. Not even close to $12,900.

#92 Tater on 10.07.19 at 11:34 am

62 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 3:47 am

Over 1 trillion in ‘insured’ mortgages folks. Read uber-ultra subprimes.

Without it house prices would have been 30 – 35 % of current in GTA and Vancouver, the whole Ontario and BC.
———————————
Stan I’m sure your computer time is limited, but maybe use some of it to educate yourself. CMHC publishes lots of info about their insured portfolio. If you think a LTV of .3, to a borrower with a 760 credit score, 27% GDS and 37% TDS qualifies as subprime, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about.

I’m sure that comes as a massive surprise to regular readers of your drivel.

#93 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 11:43 am

#58 Fortune500 on 10.07.19 at 12:19 am.

Unfortunately millennials have the choice between falling behind and massive debt that could one day end in destruction. But meanwhile, they have to live a life.
___

Only in GVRD/GTA.

The kids are all-right out my way.

#94 NoName on 10.07.19 at 11:51 am

we didnt play music here for some time, probably thats why dog pen is in state it is…

They are playing in great smoke on halowind, maybe i aksed wife and if she wants go…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9FzVhw8_bY

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 11:58 am

@#91 nitro
“BS” ?
+++++
Did you even read the article?
The girl is paying $5300/year and next year she will pay $6400.
Thats…… a…… fact.
I pay $2000/year AFTER my 43% “discount” is deducted as a 10 years + of safe driving “Roadstar”.

In 40 plus years of driving I have NEVER had an “at fault” accident. I have been hit by other drivers but never my fault even though ICBC did try once to find me 25% “at fault” (so that I would lose my safe driving “discount”……. No conflict of interest there……)

The ICBC spokes-spin-person in the article said “$6400 a year is a good deal. A similar “new” driver in Ontario would pay up to $12,400….”

#96 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 12:01 pm

#83 Phylis on 10.07.19 at 10:51 am

… they wanted me to pay more for accident forgiveness. Collision incl. It seems to me that one shouldnt have to pay for forgiveness.
___

A.F. only needs using once to be worth it. Ms IH drove into a parking lot in the winter and hit a big chunk of frozen snow/ice sticking up. All the angles of the car and parking lot combined with the position of the ice block to tear a hole in the front lower nose of her Civic (all cheap plastic stuff up front).

Ins Co. said this would be considered an at fault accident, so the fallout of making a claim would be years of jacked rates.

Because we had the unused accident forgiveness – we made the claim and had it fixed “consequence free” outside of paying the deductible.

#97 Vehicle Repairs on 10.07.19 at 12:24 pm

Once had this car and the door was rusted badly, so called asking for a new door and price was $800. I ended up at a wreckage yard, and found one for $25, so called a body shop that came to take it off and repaint it for me $100. The next time the engine was going downhill on me. I phoned this young guy who at one time was the head mechanic for the USA racing circuit. He had a shop on the farm repairing cars part time. He would find me an engine, and all he had to do was turn the key and listen. He found me one that was restored in a crate. He charged me a total of $600 in cash. He picked up my car to remove the engine, and put the new one in with adjustments made. In 90 minutes had my car back for payment.

#98 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 12:49 pm

#96 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 12:01 pm

A.F. only needs using once to be worth it. Ms IH drove into a parking lot in the winter and hit a big chunk of frozen snow/ice sticking up. All the angles of the car and parking lot combined with the position of the ice block to tear a hole in the front lower nose of her Civic (all cheap plastic stuff up front).

Ins Co. said this would be considered an at fault accident, so the fallout of making a claim would be years of jacked rates.

Because we had the unused accident forgiveness – we made the claim and had it fixed “consequence free” outside of paying the deductible.

—————————-

IH, I’d expect you to fabricate an indestructible nose from an old Buick quarter panel and tell the insurers to pound sand. Maybe if it was your car and not your wife’s?

Also sort of rewarding to repair plastic cosmetics with epoxy, fiberglass and paint match.

I personally do home and auto maintenance when doing it myself at my professional hourly chargeout ($180) comes in at 1/2 or less the quoted price of a hired contractor or garage. Garages charge equivalent margin on parts as bars do for alcohol.

#99 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 12:52 pm

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 11:58 am
@#91 nitro
“BS” ?
+++++
Did you even read the article?
The girl is paying $5300/year and next year she will pay $6400.
Thats…… a…… fact.
I pay $2000/year AFTER my 43% “discount” is deducted as a 10 years + of safe driving “Roadstar”.

In 40 plus years of driving I have NEVER had an “at fault” accident. I have been hit by other drivers but never my fault even though ICBC did try once to find me 25% “at fault” (so that I would lose my safe driving “discount”……. No conflict of interest there……)

The ICBC spokes-spin-person in the article said “$6400 a year is a good deal. A similar “new” driver in Ontario would pay up to $12,400….”
____

I love how the ICBC says they’re looking at “high tech solutions to lower costs” in that article. LOL. I think a politician may have stated that one. Yeah, my heart fills with hope, maybe save 25.00/year. Every last comment by the ICBC in that article is misleading or outright BS.

There is only 1 problem to deal with: it is run by the government. We have the exact same issue here in Ontario when it comes to booze and electricity. Guess what? Prices for both are outrageous.

Seriously, if I were a young single guy living in BC – where driving without insurance is a piddly 650.00 fine – I’d be looking long and hard at the cost/benefit of skipping it altogether. The only real question is, how long could I drive without seriously injuring or killing someone in an accident? For me – that time is 31 years and counting. If I had to pay the likes of ICBC for 31 years – they’d likely have drained over 100 grand from me by then.

BC **MUST** have an epidemic number of uninsured drivers on the road.

#100 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 12:54 pm

#83 Phylis on 10.07.19 at 10:51 am

It seems to me that one shouldnt have to pay for forgiveness.

————————–

You must not be Catholic.

#101 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.07.19 at 12:55 pm

#83 Phylis on 10.07.19 at 10:51 am sez, in part:

” It seems to me that one shouldnt have to pay for forgiveness.”
——————————–
Funny, that’s exactly what Two Jets Flying is doing by buying “carbon offsets”.

#102 AGuyInVancouver on 10.07.19 at 1:00 pm

#79 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 9:49 am

I have no idea about 18 year olds, but I pay $1,200 a year in car insurance a year for car insurance in Ontario. I’m 37.
_ _ _
Thanks for the useless answer. The question was what do 18 year olds pay in ON? Everyone knows 37 is a sweet spot in car insurance when you’ve grown out of your reckless youth yet still in possession of all your faculties and reflexes.

Up until now ICBC has not penalized young, new drivers as most private insureres do (gov’t can’t discriminate by age dontcha know). The NDP finally realized that wasn’t working.

#103 NoName on 10.07.19 at 1:13 pm

Now that we are disgusting car insurance, we pay 480-something in car insurance, almost like mortgage payment where yellow tractor lives…

m43on car 1
f45on car 2
f17on car 2

one more music and iam done for a day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U631FGnXDXY

#104 Axehead on 10.07.19 at 1:15 pm

#97. I’m guessing Chrysler product.

#105 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 1:18 pm

#98 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 12:49 pm

IH, I’d expect you to fabricate an indestructible nose from an old Buick quarter panel and tell the insurers to pound sand. Maybe if it was your car and not your wife’s?

Also sort of rewarding to repair plastic cosmetics with epoxy, fiberglass and paint match.

I personally do home and auto maintenance when doing it myself at my professional hourly chargeout ($180) comes in at 1/2 or less the quoted price of a hired contractor or garage. Garages charge equivalent margin on parts as bars do for alcohol.
___

IH’s “car” has a steel nose from the factory :).

I don’t mind doing brakes and starter motors, but I learned a long time ago that auto body work is an art, so I leave that particular work to the Pro’s. The body shop did an invisible repair to her Civic, and it only ran us 500.00 for the deductible – that is cool by me!

#106 MF on 10.07.19 at 1:22 pm

92 Tater on 10.07.19 at 11:34 am

-Lol. Savage.

MF

#107 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 1:37 pm

#102 AGuyInVancouver on 10.07.19 at 1:00 pm

Up until now ICBC has not penalized young, new drivers as most private insureres do…
___

Correct. It sounds more like they’ve been penalizing ALL drivers, and STILL can’t get enough money. So now it’s time to pile drive the youth into the ground like a fence post with 6-7K annual premiums on top of it all.

The scariest thing about ICBC is how willing they are to casually lie through their teeth about what Ontario privately supplied Premiums look like.

Luckily, no BC’er will believe these nose-extending ICBC statements because they’ve already done their research, and know Ontario residents pay about half to a third of what BC’ers do for the same product.

Right?

#108 n1tro on 10.07.19 at 1:41 pm

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 11:58 am
@#91 nitro
“BS” ?
+++++
Did you even read the article?
The girl is paying $5300/year and next year she will pay $6400.
Thats…… a…… fact.
I pay $2000/year AFTER my 43% “discount” is deducted as a 10 years + of safe driving “Roadstar”.
———
BS as in the bent over position that you guys are paying. $220 a month is the rate one of the kids at work is paying. 2 years in Canada, with G2.

#109 Penny Henny on 10.07.19 at 1:46 pm

#96 IHCTD9 on 10.07.19 at 12:01 pm
#83 Phylis on 10.07.19 at 10:51 am

… they wanted me to pay more for accident forgiveness. Collision incl. It seems to me that one shouldnt have to pay for forgiveness.
___

A.F. only needs using once to be worth it.

/////////////////////////

I chose accident forgiveness so if I am so inclined to ram into some prick in a BMW/Mercedes/Audi I will be able to do so without my rates going up.

Come to think of it I should probably have stickers on my car warning others of such.

#110 jess on 10.07.19 at 1:48 pm

Judge dismisses Trump request to keep taxes secret in New York

By Erica Orden

This court cannot endorse such a categorical and limitless assertion of the presidential immunity…”

Read the opinion here:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/07/politics/sdny-ruling-trump-tax-returns/index.html

#111 jess on 10.07.19 at 1:52 pm

so this was the firm that was doing the endless audit?

“As part of its probe, the DA’s office sent Trump’s accounting firm, Mazars USA, a grand jury subpoena seeking tax returns and related documents going back to 2011. On Monday, a spokeswoman for the company said, “Mazars USA will respect the legal process and fully comply with its legal obligations.”

….The judge wrote that the issues at hand stretched back to questions addressed by the Founding Fathers.
“Shunning the concept of the inviolability of the person of the King of England and the bounds of the monarch’s protective screen covering the Crown’s actions from legal scrutiny, the Founders disclaimed any notion that the Constitution generally conferred similarly all-encompassing immunity upon the President,” Marrero wrote.
Courts have ruled that a president can be subjected to a civil suit concerning conduct that took place before he took office and must comply with subpoenas regarding third parties, Marrero pointed out. “The notion of federal supremacy and presidential immunity from judicial process that the President here invokes, unqualified and boundless in its reach as described above, cuts across the grain of these constitutional precedents,” he wrote.

#112 There Are Options on 10.07.19 at 1:52 pm

In basic logic the purpose of a vehicle is to get from one place to another safely. Any home is just a place to live, and nothing more. The most important factor to consider is liquidity, and having a portfolio that is diversified enough for retirement, and old age that is managed by a fee based advisor looking at everything of importance. Now, it may exist in the mix to obtain a better home and vehicle at the proper time when its affordable to do so.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 2:01 pm

@#99 IHCTD9
“BC **MUST** have an epidemic number of uninsured drivers on the road.”

+++++

Close.
The amount to vehicles out here with Alberta Plates is through the roof.
I see the same trucks driving in the morning month after month to their jobs.
Guys filling up their “Alberta” cars in the am with Safety vests on.
Apparently tourists from Alberta require safety vests when driving in BC……. OR they’re here working.

Most Police roadblocks for booze/impaired drivers they want to see your license and insurance now.
Yep.
I’m thinking tons of uninsured or illegally registered/insured (Albertan plates living working in BC) are out therte.
And its only getting worse.

An election issue for sure.

#114 PastThePeak on 10.07.19 at 2:11 pm

The first German bank is now charging their depositors negative interest (-0.5%) to hold their money (amounts over $100K€ for now) at the bank. Others are expected to follow.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-lenders-pass-pain-negative-090000979.html

…not going to end well…

#115 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 2:27 pm

#92 Tater on 10.07.19 at 11:34 am

If insuring mortgages was profitable it would not have been in the hands of the government, but privatized.

Where exactly do you live, in some parallel universe?

#116 yvr_lurker on 10.07.19 at 2:34 pm

I think the large ICBC rate increases reflect a perfect storm of events. First of all the Liberals raided the cash reserves of ICBC for any years without any critique. Secondly, over the past decade their has been a rapid increase in the number of law firms specializing in getting large settlements from low impact collisions. One example is (I tell my story below)

https://www.bungaylawoffice.ca/car-accident-icbc-claims/rear-end-collisions-vacouver

Another issue is the large increase in downright fraud cases (staged accidents) that ICBC does not go after as much as they should. Finally, with all the luxury cars in the lower mainland (with drivers who have perhaps purchased their licenses rather than earned them), fixing these vehicles is a great expense.

I had a direct experience with one of the new firms speciallzing in low speed crashes. My wife was responsible for a small accident when she ran into the back of a car at around 20Km/hr in stop and go traffic on the Lions gate two years ago. The people who she hit were fine, got out of the car and then exchanged insurance papers. They did not file a personal injury claim, and their car was fixed. However, one fellow in his 30s who was two cars ahead who was barely touched got my wife’s insurance papers and ended up filing a huge personal injury claim against us and ICBC using Bungay. The initial claim was a laundry list of lost wages, permanent disability, never being able to work at full capacity again…etc…etc… We were real stressed by this for over a year. Just before we were interviewed by ICBC’s lawyers before what we thought was going to be a trial I found on facebook that the individual who had claimed permanent damage to his ankle was in fact the leading scorer a few months back (after the accident) in an indoor soccer league in North Van and was the MVP in their playoffs. Gave that FB info to the ICBC attorneys. Not sure whatever happened to the claim, but it did not go to trial. I am sure though that he came away with some $$$ anyway.

So how does one fix ICBC. Limit the payments for low impact crashes to put some of these parasitic law firms out of business (this is free enterprise capitalism run amok). Put a high extra insurance premium on insuring luxury cars (say over 60K) as their repairs are super expensive. Indeed bad drivers responsible for several crashes in a short-time coupled with many moving violations should pay much more. Finally, investigate alleged fraud cases VIGOROUSLY and bring charges if warranted and fines so as to deter other likeminded individuals. I would think that these actions should bring the costs down.

#117 conan on 10.07.19 at 2:39 pm

Any thoughts on the debate? Not sure I can talk car insurance today.

#118 The Mechanic on 10.07.19 at 2:44 pm

RE- ICBC insurance. I can’t believe we are taking this Its time for a revolution. Our next generation will be so poor, so broke…. Do you wonder why they have the highest depression rates?

My first car, saved up $1500 cash. Paid for my own insurance $500 for the year. Gave me independence, allowed me to find a job outside of a bus route, good luck with that all rural dwellers.

What kind of life do we expect for the next generation whom can’t afford:
Rent
Student loan payback
Food
Car insurance and maintenance
A family
A life

This is utterly dismal, I am so sorry for the young folks out there. I get why they may be thinking socialism, take from the rich and give back to the poor. What they do not know is that is a pipe dream and they will be even worse off.

B.C a nice place to live if you can handle extreme poverty, taxed to death and paying for our governments mis-management of funds.

I give a mark of F.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.07.19 at 2:56 pm

@102 n1tro
Oops.
read it wrong.
Yep ICBC total bs

#120 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 2:58 pm

ICBC. This is the result of “provincializing” insurance. In the US, private auto insurance is around 1/2 the cost of BC.

Socialists take note: government is less efficient than private.

In a private system, companies are incentivized to make profit and the people at the top make a lot of $. In a socialized system, nobody is incentivized to make profit, so efficiency is lost, and everyone ends up paying more. Choose your poison. I choose private, partly because the higher compensation at the top is essentially negligible for the consumer, and partly because it makes me a lot of $.

I find it interesting that so many people are ready and willing to personally pay more for a service if it stops someone else from becoming exponentially richer. Cutting off your nose to spite your face on full display.

#121 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 3:20 pm

#102 AGuyInVancouver on 10.07.19 at 1:00 pm
#79 Captain Uppa on 10.07.19 at 9:49 am

I have no idea about 18 year olds, but I pay $1,200 a year in car insurance a year for car insurance in Ontario. I’m 37.
_ _ _
Thanks for the useless answer. The question was what do 18 year olds pay in ON? Everyone knows 37 is a sweet spot in car insurance when you’ve grown out of your reckless youth yet still in possession of all your faculties and reflexes.

Up until now ICBC has not penalized young, new drivers as most private insureres do (gov’t can’t discriminate by age dontcha know). The NDP finally realized that wasn’t working.

————————————

Here is an answer; if BC’ers are paying that much in car insurance, 18 or 37, you guys are screwed. The amounts listed in they article are grand larceny. You are overpaying 10-fold.

Enjoy the mountains though!

#122 jess on 10.07.19 at 3:41 pm

ah the left over goo what will they do

The White House issued a stunning statement last night:

Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey by telephone. Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial “Caliphate,” will no longer be in the immediate area.

The United States Government has pressed France, Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial “Caliphate” by the United States.”

https://www.lawfareblog.com/will-abandoning-kurds-result-mass-release-islamic-state-fighters

#123 Debate on 10.07.19 at 3:51 pm

#117 conan – The debate has too many candidates and press to ask questions. This will ultimately turn into an uncontrollable circus on stage. I will be watching at 7:00 PM EST for my nightly entertainment.

#124 Tater on 10.07.19 at 3:55 pm

#115 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 2:27 pm
#92 Tater on 10.07.19 at 11:34 am

If insuring mortgages was profitable it would not have been in the hands of the government, but privatized.

Where exactly do you live, in some parallel universe?

———————-

I live in the world where CMHC’s cumulative profits over the last 5 years is nearly $9 billion, you boob.

Please see my previous comment about allocating some of your computer time for learning.

Oh, and Genworth Canada, is a private mortgage insurer. I’ll leave it to you to figure out if they are profitable.

#125 Stan Brooks on 10.07.19 at 3:57 pm

#118 The Mechanic on 10.07.19 at 2:44 pm

Spot on.

But there are ‘intellectuals’ i.e. Tater, MF who do not get it. They are ‘fine’ so all is fine. Tell that to the next generation.
Stupid brain-frozen dumbcopfs.

#126 jess on 10.07.19 at 4:05 pm

Trump wins delay in New York court fight over producing his tax returns
=======================
all of a sudden those republicans are awake now ..how far is too far?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/disaster-betrayal-mistake-republicans-slam-trump-s-syria-pull-out-n1063251

Oct. 7, 2019, 2:34 PM EDT
By Dareh Gregorian

President Donald Trump on Monday defended his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from the northern border of Syria, saying if Turkey does anything he considers “off limits” that he would “totally destroy and obliterate” the country’s economy.

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2019

Trump threatens to ‘totally destroy and obliterate’
Trump’s warning came after bipartisan complaints that he’s leaving the U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters to the mercy of the Turkish military.

#127 conan on 10.07.19 at 4:28 pm

RE: #123 Debate on 10.07.19 at 3:51 pm

I will be watching . Popcorn plus potential knock out blow…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlBiGylBzLo

#128 Not So New guy on 10.07.19 at 4:32 pm

Another factor not considered in insurance is ROI. Insurance companies invest their excess premiums. So how is that working out with Central Banks squashing interst rates?

Rates should be between 5% and 7%. When they are not insurance companies and pension plans need to gamble in the market to make any money

#129 Wet Fur on 10.07.19 at 4:43 pm

I would have thought the gov would want more renters. Doesn’t half the rent collected go to income tax? Plus gov gets property tax anyway from landlords. Raising the cost of housing and building a tax farm of working renters seems like a win/win for gov.

I rent in town and own land outside city limits, clear title with 400 years of property tax stored in an old well.

#130 yvr_lurker on 10.07.19 at 5:08 pm

#120 Sail Away
—-

Seems like the answer to every possible situation is to privatize. Did you work for the Fraser Institute? Should we privatize our supply of drinking water and rivers as once suggested by a former position paper of the Fraser Institute that I read?…. great idea there (sarcastic…)

What happens when due to a previous accident no private insurer is willing to offer insurance? Well I guess you are out of luck. Same as in the US when many were left uninsurable in health care due to pre-existing conditions (however benign).

Junking ICBC in favour of privatization is not what I would want to see. A whole set of new problems would emerge.

#131 Sail Away on 10.07.19 at 5:46 pm

#130 yvr_lurker on 10.07.19 at 5:08 pm
#120 Sail Away
—-

Seems like the answer to every possible situation is to privatize. Did you work for the Fraser Institute? Should we privatize our supply of drinking water and rivers as once suggested by a former position paper of the Fraser Institute that I read?…. great idea there (sarcastic…)

Junking ICBC in favour of privatization is not what I would want to see. A whole set of new problems would emerge.

————————————–

Maybe we should instead use more public/private partnerships. Many drinking water and sanitary sewer systems in Canada already are, as is BC Ferries.

That would significantly change my firm’s focus since we currently act as a private contractor to all levels of government. We’d figure it out though, since we’re flexible and efficient- you know, the way private capitalistic entrepreneurial firms need to be.