Olympus hasn’t fallen

 

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Clients worry about Donald Trump. And I, from time to time, worry about Donald Trump as well. Fortunately, we’re in good company because on any given week there’s probably not a CEO of a major corporation, a US politician (GOP included) or a world leader who isn’t also worried about him.

But now that we’re approaching three years into his presidency, let’s put all this worry into perspective:

  • The US economy has experienced positive GDP growth every year since he became president:  +2.4% in 2017, +2.9% in 2018 and, likely, +2.3% this year. While not otherworldly, these are all solid growth numbers.
  • The US labour market has been strong. Jobs have been added every single month during his presidency with a monthly average of 191,000 new jobs, well in excess of the long-term average of 92,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is 3.7%, hovering around record lows.
  • The S&P 500 has averaged a 12.3% annualized total return thus far since his November 2016 election win with corporate profit growth of 11.4% annually. Not spectacularly in excess of market returns during other presidents’ tenures but still very good.
  • And, though it’s hard to believe given the seemingly endless barrage of negative headlines, market volatility has actually been incredibly low throughout his presidency with the Cboe VIX Index averaging only about 14 versus its long-term average of 20. In other words, markets have been 30% less volatile under Trump. Yes, like it or not Trump critics, the evidence suggests that Trump has actually been a calming influence.

CBOE Volatility Index – 20 years: Long-term average (white line) ve Trump presidency average (green line)

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Evaluations of Trump’s presidency basically boil down to two arguments: 1) Trump’s such an awful president that the economy and the stock market would have been much better if he didn’t screw everything up or 2) He’s a fantastic president who’s solely responsible for all the good things that have happened to the economy and the stock market.

If the answer is 1), that’s terrible, but then clearly the US economy and corporations are resilient enough that they’ve very easily weathered his incompetence. If the answer is 2), then we’re in good hands.

Probably the truth lies somewhere in between, but if you look at the bullet points above, one conclusion is obvious, even if you hate Trump: you need to stay invested in US markets regardless of who’s in power.

Now, is Trump unethical? You’d have to be naïve or a zealot to believe otherwise. His former campaign manager Paul Manafort and former personal attorney Michael Cohen are in jail.

Former campaign adviser George Papadolpoulos has already served jail time and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is awaiting sentencing. More than 20 women, of course, have also accused him of sexual misconduct. Conflict-of-interest scandals follow him monthly, if not weekly, the Ukraine impeachment scandal being the latest. If you’re so far to the right that you believe Trump’s clean as a whistle then you’d have to also accept that Justin Trudeau’s blackface scandal is just an unimportant example of a young man’s silliness. You can’t have your scandal cake and eat it too.

And does Trump’s massive staff turnover lead to an inconsistent, destabilized and chaotic White House? Definitely. According to the Brookings Institute, Trump’s turnover rate is “off the charts”. Of the top 65 positions in the Executive Office of the President (rather important jobs like national security advisor or chief of staff), Trump’s now churned through 51 of those 65 positions. Sixteen spots have turned over twice or more! And here’s what his cabinet turnover looks like compared to other presidencies (remember: Trump’s only in year three):

You’re fired! Trump cabinet turnover vs other presidents

Source: Brookings Institute

But is Trump really destroying the US economy and markets? Of course not. The reality is that, like it or not, he’s shaken things up, but he hasn’t blown things up. And you’d have to think that if his policies were really that damaging then, after almost three years in power, markets would have reflected this with more impact.

So, should you be worried about your investments under a Trump presidency? Of course, any presidency should be viewed cautiously. But, thus far, he’s posed far more danger to his staff’s job security than he has to markets.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

88 comments ↓

#1 conan on 10.05.19 at 2:37 pm

I equate Trump’s Presidency with a ceiling leak. Is it a simple pipe repair? Or, is there 5 gallons of water on the other side of the drywall, and its about to come crashing down…..

I think he was riding what Obama had set up…. Trump is a disaster.

#2 Flop... on 10.05.19 at 2:44 pm

Robax, I thought you might want to look at this…

M45BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/timeline-economic-history

#3 BobC on 10.05.19 at 2:51 pm

4 more years should do it. He can finish up what he’s started and then work on cutting half of our government.
Then a moderate Democrat.
Refill the popcorn and hold when he’s re-elected.

#4 Dave on 10.05.19 at 2:56 pm

As more and more USA manufacturing companies are leaving China…will China economy stall?

America only allows one super power….any contenders have historically been financially ruined.

#5 Boombust on 10.05.19 at 2:58 pm

Hmm, ever visited “Shadowstats.com”?

#6 Paddy on 10.05.19 at 3:00 pm

Another interesting article Dougy, thanks for sharing a different take on the impact that The Donald has had(or not had) on the markets….”I’m Ron Burgundy???”

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.19 at 3:06 pm

@#135 Flop
Hey Crowdie, I saw on the news this morning the Conservatives had pulled their candidate.
So to recap.
Leung is out of air.
Dong is on the upswing…”
++++

Crazy times Floppie.
Who would think a nutty Burnaby MP-wannabe would be crazier than Prez Trump.

I’m amazed the Cons waited this long to deflate Leung… since her less than Politically Correct notions were well known long before the election started, but perhaps they knew it was too late to introduce another candidate and they are hoping she may be an “independent” spoiler” as opposed to an “Independent christian soldier”.

Oh well, there’s always NDP Svend to fall back on in this election.
Will he whip up enough support and put Liberal Terry on the Beach?
Who knows, maybe Svend can reach out to grab Dong’s supporters……and get them to stand behind him in the election….. possibly to get elected once again to Parliament…… an Honourable Member.

#8 Sail Away on 10.05.19 at 3:13 pm

“If you’re so far to the right that you believe Trump’s clean as a whistle then you’d have to also accept that Justin Trudeau’s blackface scandal is just an unimportant example of a young man’s silliness.”

————————————

I do sort of believe both of those. Does that make me far right and far left. So confusing…

Quick, somebody give me a label so I know how to operate!

#9 earthboundmisfit on 10.05.19 at 3:32 pm

DELETED

#10 MaxBerniersShorts on 10.05.19 at 3:47 pm

Trump’s trade war damage to the economy are only just starting to work it’s way to the consumer/investor. Witness Dorel’s dividend suspension this week. Retailers are just starting to put post-tariff merchandise on the shelf and deciding how much they can pass onto the consumer.

#11 tccontrarian on 10.05.19 at 4:17 pm

“…market volatility has actually been incredibly low throughout his presidency with the Cboe VIX Index averaging only about 14 versus its long-term average of 20.”
– – –

Things change slowly – then they change quickly (to paraphrase someone)

Note the trend in the VIX: higher lows.

tcc

#12 baloney Sandwitch on 10.05.19 at 4:24 pm

The present is holding but the future may not. Trump has poured gasoline on fire since taking over with his tax cuts and deregulation orgy. We are now getting set up for the next GFC. Never has a budget deficit so high while the unemployment so low and they are still cutting interest rates. What will they do when the recession hits?

#13 Grunt on 10.05.19 at 5:06 pm

The last awful president:

“Wall Street are willing to forgive Watergate but never the prices & wages freeze..”

Louis Rukeyser.

#14 TurnerNation on 10.05.19 at 5:10 pm

Is TDS in the DSM5 yet?

A message to all you granola crunching Leftists. And, Lefties, crunching granola.
This is how it is: I like granola, too.
Therefore I heartily approve of your choice of foodstuffs.
Enjoy. I know I will do so.

#15 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.05.19 at 5:17 pm

Suggested reading:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-views-of-the-economy-are-partisan-but-theyre-not-immune-to-bad-news/

Bad enough that some of these people are managing their own investments, but some of them are making corporate investment decisions — like whether, when and where to invest in new production or lending. Others are managing others’ money, as investment advisors.

#16 NFN_NLN on 10.05.19 at 5:35 pm

> Now, is Trump unethical? You’d have to be naïve or a zealot to believe otherwise.

Everything is relative Mr. Turner. The question you should be asking: “Is Trump more of less ethical than the people that would replace him?”

The Bidens, the Clintons, Kamala Harris…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0mFzwrm8Jc&t=2m34s

#17 Herb on 10.05.19 at 5:50 pm

What does ethics have to do with politics or business? In both cases it’s the bottom line that counts, success in politics (domestic or foreign), and profit in business.

Not supposed to be this way in some ideal world, but it is in ours.

#18 Randy on 10.05.19 at 5:52 pm

Trump Haters are either corrupt or stupid.

#19 Shawn on 10.05.19 at 5:53 pm

What’s more interesting is that the deep cyclical sectors (oil, mining, steel, agriculture) where the bulk of his supporters are have performed the poorest since the election. Meanwhile largely democratic supporting technology companies have performed the best. He probably wins in 2020 and this divergence widens further.

#20 Linda on 10.05.19 at 5:54 pm

I believe markets have become used to the WH drama & have factored it in. Trump’s job performance is nothing to write home about, but the fact he frequently takes days off to play golf etc. have the possibly unintended side effect of mitigating the amount of damage. Given his highly volatile nature I’d not be surprised to learn WH staff encourage him to go play a round as often as possible:)

#21 akashic record on 10.05.19 at 5:55 pm

#16 NFN_NLN

Biden is going to end up with a heart attack, like Sanders.
His blood pressure at the infamous video during the Council on Foreign Relations event was much more relaxed.

#22 Sold Out on 10.05.19 at 6:22 pm

#16NFN_NLN

>Now, is Trump ethical?

Um, no. Nor are the Bidens, Clinton or Harris currently the sitting president.

https://www.citizensforethics.org/trump-inc-ethics-crisis-trumps-first-100-days/

#23 Blackdog on 10.05.19 at 6:27 pm

Trump doesn’t believe there is such a thing as man-made climate change regardless that it is a settled matter as far as science is concerned. Or maybe he does, but won’t admit it because it doesn’t fit in with his agenda, not to mention his family is rich so will likely be among the few who survive.

#24 Long-Time Lurker on 10.05.19 at 6:58 pm

#96 45north on 10.04.19 at 11:08 pm

…“A liquidity crisis beyond anything you will find in the traditional economic textbooks.” This phrase gives a clue that interest rates could rise suddenly and dramatically. Without putting a number on “suddenly and dramatically”, it seems to me, that real estate transactions would effectively cease. The real estate market would stop. Not only that, there’s a trillion dollars in mortgages. You cannot just suddenly announce that henceforth the renewal rate will suddenly and dramatically increase – the result would be to downgrade the mortgages. To just about zero.

>This scenario kind of sounds like Jim Rickards’ Ice-Nine scenario: A system-wide credit freeze while the central banks try to fix everything.

I’ve been wondering about Deutsche Bank. They were already in trouble and now Germany is a recession. Add on negative interest rates to that and I’m wondering if DB is staring at the abyss.

#25 Bill Grable on 10.05.19 at 7:11 pm

From Bloomberg:

“More than a thousand brokers and agents sipped wine and nibbled ahi tuna hors d’oeuvres at the black-tie sales launch of a luxury condominium in downtown Toronto last month.

The 62-story proposed skyscraper in Yorkville, one of Canada’s most exclusive neighbourhoods, features black marble kitchens with built-in wine troughs, an indoor-outdoor infinity pool and a piano lounge. Units range from about $650,000 to almost $1.97 million for a 1,163 square foot three-bedroom suite. Add in parking for $169,000.

“They’re selling out like crazy,” said Dawna Borg, a broker at RE/MAX Premier Inc., who spent more than three hours at the sales office one Saturday trying to snag units for her clients. “We had to go back Sunday and just wait for a new allocation to come out, and we still didn’t 100 per cent get what we wanted.”

A spokeswoman for RioCan REIT, which is developing the building with Metropia and Capital Developments, said more than 70 per cent of the units have been sold since the mid-September launch.

Canada’s housing market is back with a roar this fall. Benchmark prices in Toronto jumped 5.2 per cent to $805,500 in September from a year earlier, only about $10,000 below their peak two years ago. While prices in Vancouver continue to fall, sales rebounded 46 per cent, the third month in a row of year-on-year gains. Montreal and Ottawa continue to chug along and even in beleaguered Calgary, the energy capital of Canada, sales rose 8.2 per cent in September from last year”.

I think people have lost their minds. Anyone buying a piece of crap in the sky, as REPO’s in the States hit the roof amid the dystopian disaster we are facing, and it will wipe out a ton of people. DEBT is the death ray, as they give away money at the Banks. Just wait until there is a re-set on interest rates…after the goody bag that Government uses proves empty.

People have short memories. Stores are closing, job growth? Yeah, part time or minimum wage gigs.

Wake up, or get trampled.

#26 604renter on 10.05.19 at 7:30 pm

Lets keep things in perspective – trump is a pig. Period. A racist. A misogynist. Self serving. Without integrity. Ive never accused him of being a poor businessman – but he is no leader.

#27 BS on 10.05.19 at 7:42 pm

Snowflakes will never understand Trump.

Trump is unethical because his campaign manger committed tax evasion prior to Trump ever meeting him? Or his personal lawyer did the same which had nothing to do with Trump? I bet if you were investigated to the extent Trump’s colleges were they could come up with some irregularities in the taxes you paid as well.

George Papadolpoulos and Flynn were framed which will be coming out soon with the current DoJ investigations.

More than 20 women also accused him of sexual misconduct but none have won a dime nor has Trump ever been charged.

Everything else you listed is pure politics with nothing sticking. The impeachment is a joke to anyone without Trump derangement syndrome.

Sorry comparing to Trudeau with just blackface you forgot to add the sexual misconduct allegations against Trudeau (which he did not deny) and the SNC Lavalin case which may be criminal. Trudeau has associated with people on the terrorist watch lists. Trump compared to Trudeau is squeaky clean (unless you are a snowflake).

#28 Doug Rowat on 10.05.19 at 7:42 pm

#10 MaxBerniersShorts on 10.05.19 at 3:47 pm

Trump’s trade war damage to the economy are only just starting to work it’s way to the consumer/investor. Witness Dorel’s dividend suspension this week.

Dorel shares have been tanking for 5 years…back when Trump was only a TV star. This is the best example you could use to attack his policies?

–Doug

#29 Examples on 10.05.19 at 8:19 pm

#28 Doug Rowat – Just how many do you want? You protest too much.

#30 joblo on 10.05.19 at 8:25 pm

So the Globe and Mail story?

#31 Doug Rowat on 10.05.19 at 8:27 pm

#27 BS on 10.05.19 at 7:42 pm

Snowflakes will never understand Trump.

Trump is unethical because his campaign manger committed tax evasion prior to Trump ever meeting him? Or his personal lawyer did the same which had nothing to do with Trump? I bet if you were investigated to the extent Trump’s colleges were they could come up with some irregularities in the taxes you paid as well.

George Papadolpoulos and Flynn were framed which will be coming out soon with the current DoJ investigations.

More than 20 women also accused him of sexual misconduct but none have won a dime nor has Trump ever been charged.

I’ll put you down for ‘zealot’.

–Doug

#32 AACI Homedog on 10.05.19 at 8:32 pm

I believe that Trudeau’s gaff was indeed a harmless err by a young fellow, I do also believe that Trump is on one heck of a crazy agenda. In a greedy, selfish way i am just glad my portfolio is thriving.

#33 Doug Rowat on 10.05.19 at 8:34 pm

#26 604renter on 10.05.19 at 7:30 pm

Lets keep things in perspective – trump is a pig. Period. A racist. A misogynist. Self serving. Without integrity. Ive never accused him of being a poor businessman – but he is no leader.

I didn’t say he was a good businessman. He’s probably not.

I’m only stating that, as president, there’s evidence to suggest that he’s helped both the economy and the stock market.

–Doug

#34 Sail Away on 10.05.19 at 8:35 pm

Ahhh.. it’s so nice to see a post and comments with less emphasis on irrational Trump hatred. Maybe he’s not doing so bad a job after all, eh?

#35 Sail Away on 10.05.19 at 8:40 pm

#26 604renter on 10.05.19 at 7:30 pm

Lets keep things in perspective – trump is a pig. Period. A racist. A misogynist. Self serving. Without integrity. Ive never accused him of being a poor businessman – but he is no leader.

—————————–

What sort of perspective is that, where you spew poison for no reason?

#36 Ronaldo on 10.05.19 at 8:44 pm

#1 Conan

I think he was riding what Obama had set up…. Trump is a disaster.
—————————————————————-
You think? What exactly makes him a disaster? Name some.

#37 A great business man on 10.05.19 at 8:45 pm

Since 1985 Trump held himself out as a great business man, yet had six corporate bankruptcies leaving others holding the bag.
https://www.thoughtco.com/donald-trump-business-bankruptcies-4152019

#38 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.05.19 at 9:01 pm

“Snowflakes will never understand Trump.”

Probably not. It’s esoteric. About every 100 years, terrible things emanate from the fetid swamps surrounding the nation’s capital. Some historians have speculated that the cause may be related to particularly strong lunar tidal pulls, while others believe the phenomenon to have a supernatural origin — this latter theory was heavily adapted into a plot device for the movie Brigadoon.

The ‘Panic of 1819’ resulted from the confluence of real estate speculation, easy paper money and poor central bank policy, and high tariffs. Some of you might already be drawing parallels with the current administration…

The Harding administration of the early 20th century was a seething cauldron of corruption and graft, some involving drilling for oil in national parks. A clampdown on immigration policy, and numerous presidential bimbo eruptions were other hallmarks of the administration. Despite his personal physician declaring his health to be astonishingly excellent, the healthiest individual yet to have held the Presidency, Harding died in office of a heart attack.

And now Trump and his administration, the living embodiment of the third turning of this ponderous cycle. I need not bore you with the mise-en-scène, or the cast of “best people” currently populating the federal cabinet, cable TV, and some of the nation’s finer correctional institutions.

Will the republic survive to see the fourth turning, around 2119?

#39 Doug Rowat on 10.05.19 at 9:02 pm

#29 Examples on 10.05.19 at 8:19 pm

#28 Doug Rowat – Just how many do you want? You protest too much.

How about one more than a Canadian toy and furniture company whose shares are the exact same price they were 25 years ago. That’s Trump’s fault?

But before you get your keyboard all fired up to attack his policies, fair warning, I’m more interested in the Leaf game.

–Doug

#40 SunDays on 10.05.19 at 9:05 pm

Clients worry about Donald Trump. And I, from time to time, worry about Donald Trump as well. Fortunately, we’re in good company because on any given week there’s probably not a CEO of a major corporation, a US politician (GOP included) or a world leader who isn’t also worried about him.

—————————

Great! That is bullish for stocks.

#41 NJGeezer on 10.05.19 at 9:07 pm

TDS in full effect in the steerage section today.

Put me down as ‘zealot’ too.
You Canucks are a scream.

#42 TC on 10.05.19 at 9:29 pm

“But is Trump really destroying the US economy and markets? Of course not. The reality is that, like it or not, he’s shaken things up, but he hasn’t blown things up”

Well put Doug! A great article. Ya gotta love the theater and drama of all the crooked mud slinging going on in politics these days. That’s what politics is all about. Shake things up because you can! In the end……….who cares about them, their all expendable with another one in line ready to take their place. Just as long as we all keep making money……and I am………..they can do whatever they want!

#43 Ronaldo on 10.05.19 at 9:48 pm

#27 BS

Trump compared to Trudeau is squeaky clean (unless you are a snowflake).
——————————————————————
And Mr. Dressup compared to Trump is a pipsqueak as far as a leader is concerned. As Trump stated before, meek and weak. I’ll put my money on Trump any day.

#44 Sail Away on 10.05.19 at 10:11 pm

My refusal to condemn politicians based on stories is partly due to experience with people doing exactly what they condemn others for.

I’m a dual US/CDN citizen in a high tourist area in Canada, and frequently have conversations with visitors when out and about. It’s very common for visitors, both foreign and Canadian, to turn the conversation to America, then proceed to bash Americans in general and Trump in particular. Only Trump recently, though- the America bashing has been happening for 15 years, ever since we moved here.

When this happens, my procedure is to let them finish their tirade, then politely say, “By the way, I’m American. Don’t apologize for what you just said, though, I’m used to rude (Europeans, Germans, Canadians, etc.). Bye now.”.

It seems effective and hopefully gives a bit of a wake-up. My wife now wanders away when American bashing starts because she knows what’s coming.

#45 BS on 10.05.19 at 10:15 pm

I’ll put you down for ‘zealot’.

–Doug

Coming from a snowflake who parrots fake news I will take that as a compliment. Usually it is racist or deplorable.

#46 AR on 10.05.19 at 10:18 pm

Trump is coasting off all the policies Obama put in after the GFC – caused by Bush’s ridiculous lack of oversight on mortgage lending and banks. When Trump is finally gone, the Democrats will have another financial mess to clean up, but the rich republicans will have made out like bandits and the poor ones will still be poor, angry and racist.

#47 Sold Out on 10.05.19 at 10:33 pm

#40 NJGeezer

“TDS in full effect in the steerage section today”

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The only syndrome on display here is Dunning-Kruger

#48 Alberta Ed on 10.05.19 at 11:37 pm

Trump, unethical… good thing there aren’t any unethical Canadian politicians. Oh, wait…

#49 Nonplused on 10.06.19 at 12:02 am

Scott Adams nails it again.

The language of Trump: “I didn’t do anything wrong and here is the transcript”.

The language of Biden: “There isn’t any evidence that there was a conflict”.

Can you see the difference? Think about it for a bit.

(I’ll give you a hint, lairs rely on the lack of evidence. You can use that in your personal life. Your welcome. Truthful people immediately deny false allegations, they don’t ask you about your evidence. This works 90% of the time but some liars have learned to deny the occurrence up front like a truthful person would so we can’t be entirely sure. But it’s helpful. If you ask your wife is she is having an affair, quite an accusation to make, and she says “no, you arsehole” she is probably telling you the truth. If she says “what on earth would make you think that???” she’s probably got another man.)

#50 Blackdog on 10.06.19 at 12:09 am

“Why Climate Change denial and misogyny go hand in hand”

When it comes down to it, this troubling behaviour — misogynistic threats, refusing to engage in “girly” environmental choices, supporting an industrial, nationalistic economy — is all about the same thing: a deep desire to protect perceived world orders and a fear of change, of shifting power structures, of equality. But it’s far past time that sexists stop worrying about whether the feminists are winning or whether carrying a cloth bag is unmanly. We have more important things to worry about. Like our whole planet.

https://www.tvo.org/article/why-climate-denial-and-misogyny-go-hand-in-hand

#51 Duffy on 10.06.19 at 1:28 am

# 23 Blackdog

Salesmen must have made a lot of money off of you over the years . . . . . don’t be afraid to do some more research into weather wobbles, and question both sides . . . . . . think big dollars.

#52 Somking Mam on 10.06.19 at 1:41 am

Been saying the same shit for a long time. Nice you finally see it.

But I’m a high functioning drunk who is not afraid to share my thoughts of the moment. I get no respect here.

Do I care? hell no. You can’t bend who you can’t offend..

Those little pathetic suck up globalists engaged with mind control technics on our young students turning them into radical communists via the cult of the educational industrial complex.

Speeling and good Grammer is not important to a true risk taker.

Wifees P&L since I tried to get her to stop pissing away my money in a casino. She’s up to 1.67 million since March started out with 10k

Kids it’s all about hedging with 400 to 1 margin..

Is Turner investments ready to gamble 1 precent of their clients portfolio into my book. I get 50 precent of the profit..

Or no deal….

#53 R1200C on 10.06.19 at 2:34 am

So imagine for a minute that the president of the US of eH was an unscrupulous miscreant… you have just made the point that he can “make” stock market volatility (US and others) in the range of up to 20%…
How tough would it be to create a few shell companies (Russian ones for example…) and buy (and sell) ahead of what ever tweet of the day to make a few trillions?

#54 Smoking Man on 10.06.19 at 2:47 am

Truth is out there ..I hate censorships.

https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc

#55 604renter on 10.06.19 at 2:52 am

Sailaway. Any person with a modicum of decency can agree that trump lacks integrity. Statements of fact are not poison spewing. A true leader sets example. And societies are judged by how they treat their weakest members. Trump has mocked the disabled, objectified women, berated those who oppose him and attempted to extort foreign powers to help him politically. These are not characteristics of a good leader – they are characteristics of a narcissist. If you cant view the facts and understand that trump is a vile individual – well – we will have to accept that we are different people. There is much more to being potus than conveying stability to the market

#56 Tickety on 10.06.19 at 4:38 am

Stats always bother me when they don’t make sense. The newest and biggest is the unemployment rate in the US hovering around the lowest in history. Trumpians are loudly attributing this to excellent perfect strategies. I don’t. I feel it is more than likely unemployed people are getting jobs from those who are retiring and considering there is approximately 10000 people retiring everyday in the US there will be a lot of openings to fill thus the decrease in unemployment rate. GEN Xers are finally getting those middle management jobs therefore they can leave their 25 year entry level jobs

#57 Cdn Realtor on 10.06.19 at 6:35 am

More political crap to take the focus off of the HOT Canadian RE market.

#58 maxx on 10.06.19 at 7:58 am

@ #23 Blackdog on 10.05.19 at 6:27 pm

“Trump doesn’t believe there is such a thing as man-made climate change regardless that it is a settled matter as far as science is concerned. Or maybe he does, but won’t admit it because it doesn’t fit in with his agenda, not to mention his family is rich so will likely be among the few who survive.”

That’s the take-away isn’t it? Many policymakers have the backstop of an alternative plan for their own lives given assets, entitlements and connections.

Unlike the rest of society where the net impact of policy is far greater. Having said that, should climate change pick up momentum, few will escape it effects.

A term which results in mountains of debt and hurts select demographics is of little consequence to members of parties who simply move on to join the junket-rich, all expenses paid lecture-circuit fiesta, take on corporate directorships or simply retire to their compounds in sunnier climes.

Climate change could make travel a wee bit more challenging.

#59 Ronaldo on 10.06.19 at 7:58 am

#55 Tickety

GEN Xers are finally getting those middle management jobs therefore they can leave their 25 year entry level jobs.
——————————————————————
If a Gen Xer is still in an entry level job after 25 years, he/she can’t have a heck of a lot going for them. Hope you’re not one of those.

#60 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 8:46 am

TDS questionnaire:

1) Name five things Trump has done as POTUS that you agree with (appointments, laws, exec orders, military action, etc. Not squishy things or mere words. ACTIONS).

2) Five things you disagree with. Same criteria.

Post your answers right here if you’re bold. If you have trouble with EITHER question, you may well be suffering from TDS. If you have trouble with BOTH, you may not be as well informed about his presidency as you thought.

#61 Dharma Bum on 10.06.19 at 8:58 am

It doesn’t matter if Trump is doing a good job or bad job.
It matters only what people (markets) THINK what kind of job he’s doing.
Perception is the only reality.

#62 Doug Rowat on 10.06.19 at 9:06 am

#44 BS on 10.05.19 at 10:15 pm

I’ll put you down for ‘zealot’.

–Doug

Coming from a snowflake who parrots fake news I will take that as a compliment. Usually it is racist or deplorable.

#45 AR on 10.05.19 at 10:18 pm

Trump is coasting off all the policies Obama put in after the GFC – caused by Bush’s ridiculous lack of oversight on mortgage lending and banks. When Trump is finally gone, the Democrats will have another financial mess to clean up, but the rich republicans will have made out like bandits and the poor ones will still be poor, angry and racist.

—-

Look at you two, back-to-back zealots. It’s kinda sweet.

You should grab a beer together.

—Doug

#63 Penny Henny on 10.06.19 at 9:11 am

#114 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.05.19 at 9:41 am
In the spirit of reconciliation, and in order to get in touch with his indigenous side, Trudeau has decided to take an indigenous name.

Presenting Justin Two Jets.
//////////////

Hmmm,
that’s good but I think we need to make it a bit more indigenous. How about

Justin Two Jets Flying

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 9:16 am

@#52 Skimong Nam
“Is Turner investments ready to gamble 1 precent of their clients portfolio into my book. I get 50 precent of the profit…”
+++++

ONLY if you use spell cheque…

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 9:22 am

Trump …. a loose cannon rolling around on the deck of a ship.
The crew is too frightened of the careening cannon to try and reign it in ….so…. either it smashes though the sides and goes overboard to oblivion or…..crashes through an open hatch and smashes a hole in the bottom of the ship, sinking it.

Impeachment.
Perhaps the Democrats are just trying to give the cannon a little help overboard.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 9:28 am

@#63 Penny Henny

I liked the Justin Two Jets
But we should remember he’s the second Trudeau so.

T2 Two Jets

#67 Blackdog on 10.06.19 at 9:38 am

@Duffy #51
” # 23 Blackdog
Salesmen must have made a lot of money off of you over the years . . . . . don’t be afraid to do some more research into weather wobbles, and question both sides . . . . . . think big dollars.”

There aren’t two sides Duffy. There is one side, called science, and no debate within science that man-made climate change is real. Like the theory of gravity, the theory of man-made climate change is a done deal. Your insults don’t change anything. And if you want to “think big dollars”, think about all the money that is made at the expense of man-made climate change.

#68 Sail Away on 10.06.19 at 9:39 am

#55 604renter on 10.06.19 at 2:52 am

Sailaway. Any person with a modicum of decency can agree that trump lacks integrity. Statements of fact are not poison spewing.

Trump has mocked the disabled, objectified women, berated those who oppose him and attempted to extort foreign powers to help him politically. These are not characteristics of a good leader – they are characteristics of a narcissist.

If you cant view the facts and understand that trump is a vile individual – well – we will have to accept that we are different people.

———————————

It’s ok, 604. When it comes to Trump, I’m used to detractors who think their opinions are facts. Bye now.

#69 Sail Away on 10.06.19 at 10:01 am

#50 Blackdog on 10.06.19 at 12:09 am
“Why Climate Change denial and misogyny go hand in hand”

—————————–

I guess you can choose to conflate the two if you like, just as you can choose to conflate any disagreement with a woman about any subject as misogyny. It’s not an intellectually honest approach, but is quite common.

#70 MF on 10.06.19 at 10:10 am

A second term for Trump was never in doubt.

Myself and a few others said that way back in 2016.

The reason is simple: the Democrats are in total disarray and are reaching to the fringes left leaning voters. The fact there are no credible leaders just adds to the effect.

MF

Trump is credible and Biden is not? – Garth

#71 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.06.19 at 10:19 am

#63 Penny Henny on 10.06.19 at 9:11 am sez:
“#114 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.05.19 at 9:41 am
In the spirit of reconciliation, and in order to get in touch with his indigenous side, Trudeau has decided to take an indigenous name.

Presenting Justin Two Jets.
//////////////

Hmmm,
that’s good but I think we need to make it a bit more indigenous. How about

Justin Two Jets Flying”
———————————————
I like it. Let’s go all in and take out the Anglo first name.

How about Two Jets Flying?

#72 leebow on 10.06.19 at 10:39 am

Trump’s policies will not last. What’s gonna stay forever is the mistrust. Hysteresis.

#73 Blake Patterson on 10.06.19 at 10:53 am

You want to talk about unethical and corruption. Look at the biggest cartel called central banks, U.S. Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan etc.

They are ripping off tens of trillions of dollars a year from responsible, law obeying citizens and people around the world. Inflation is not 1.9% or 2.2% or whatever low figure they spit out. It is all a bunch of B.S. and rigged, socialistic, communistic command economy and money control from the top where the fish head rots and stinks. It is fishy alright.

Obama was worse and his socialistic, communistic rob Peter to pay Paul economics and government tax, spend, borrow ideology and policies. America after 2008 has been weakened within it’s borders and traitors to the U.S.

#74 NoName on 10.06.19 at 11:00 am

Here is an interesting read, longer, took me good chunk of the day yesterday to thru all reference links include, for some reason i got stuck on that website that has tons of tables.

anyways… its all because of ww2 and cold wars, bastige child internet, that alows us to move information sideways. definetly interesting read.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world/

#75 NoName on 10.06.19 at 11:01 am

tables web

https://www.gapminder.org/data/

#76 MF on 10.06.19 at 11:04 am

“Trump is credible and Biden is not? – Garth”

-Biden is seen as vistige from the Obama era. Trump voters have already rejected that type of leader, and I see no reason for them to stray. The media pressure (impeachment, mueller) has zero effect on them. Actually, it has done the oppposite and shored up support.

As for Democrat voters, Biden is too centrist for them. The party has tilted to the left and he will not due for the more radical Democrat voter base (growing in number, alramingly). Gender and race politics may therefore also negatively play into his presidential run as a modern Democrat candidate. He’s also on the older side. Too many obstacles. I see Warren as the only leader emerging from the Democrats with a chance, but ultimately her more radical views will prove unpalatable for the majority of Americans (of any political affiliation).

MF

#77 Spectacle on 10.06.19 at 11:41 am

#71 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.06.19 at 10:19 am
#63 Penny Henny on 10.06.19 at 9:11 am sez:
“#114 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.05.19 at 9:41 am
In the spirit of reconciliation, and in order to get in touch with his indigenous side, Trudeau has decided to take an indigenous name.

Presenting Justin Two Jets.
//////////////

Hmmm,
that’s good but I think we need to make it a bit more indigenous. How about

Justin Two Jets Flying”
———————————————
I like it. Let’s go all in and take out the Anglo first name.

How about Two Jets Flying?

————— How about……..

How about , No Jets Flying,
or Fallen ( substitute: Corrupt, Fake ) Eagle….

https://www.cbc.ca › canada › calgary
Web results
Canadian air carriers inspect Boeing aircraft for cracks after FAA directive | CBC News – CBC.ca

#78 Marcus on 10.06.19 at 11:46 am

It is so funny to watch and read socialist/Marxist Canadians try to comment with any degree of awareness about American politics. I have spent 25 years in Canada and 26 in America and I can say with 100% assurance that the average Canadian today is not even half way as intelligent nor self aware as their counterpart in Canada from the 1970’s. The amount of propaganda that Canadians have imbibed and accepted as fact is astonishing. Go ahead ….. continue on your present course and remove and destroy your heritage. Tear down the statues of your leaders from the distant past, Reeeee at the moon to get virtue points from equally brain damaged Canadians. Your time has passed …….. just get out of the way.

Number of gun deaths in the USA in 2018: 40,000. Number of gun deaths in Canada, 2018: 249. We’re not all bad. – Garth

#79 Spectacle on 10.06.19 at 11:56 am

15 Things Trump Got Right (Before Changing His Mind) – The Advocate

#60 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 8:46 am
TDS questionnaire:

1) Name five things Trump has done as POTUS that you agree with (appointments, laws, exec orders, military action, etc. Not squishy things or mere words. ACTIONS).

2) Five things you disagree with. Same criteria.

Post your answers right here if you’re bold. If you have trouble with EITHER question, you may well be suffering from TDS. If you have trouble with BOTH, you may not be as well informed about his presidency as you thought.——————–
Sometimes the question dictates the answer, Degras Tysen 2019.

Perhaps we are concentrating on the peripheral issues, and being fooled by the popular argument.

( Takes me an effort to stop being a puppet or pawn, being fooled by the public argument to fool us…….)

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.19 at 12:24 pm

Geez.
Trump is attacking Republicans now?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/politics/romney-trump-china-ukraine-rebuke/index.html

I wonder how many Republicans will be willing to throw the Prez under the bus when Impeachment proceedings begin.

Not to worry Trump fans.
President Pence will pardon him as he’s whisked by chopper to Mar A Lago

#81 Penny Henny on 10.06.19 at 1:04 pm

#71 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.06.19 at 10:19 am
#63 Penny Henny on 10.06.19 at 9:11 am sez:
“#114 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.05.19 at 9:41 am
In the spirit of reconciliation, and in order to get in touch with his indigenous side, Trudeau has decided to take an indigenous name.

Presenting Justin Two Jets.
//////////////

Hmmm,
that’s good but I think we need to make it a bit more indigenous. How about

Justin Two Jets Flying”
———————————————
I like it. Let’s go all in and take out the Anglo first name.

How about Two Jets Flying?

//////////////

By Tor, I think you got it!

#82 Two Jets on 10.06.19 at 1:08 pm

He just loves to fly, and was one a 1960’s cargo plane polluting the skies?
https://torontosun.com/news/national/election-2019/cargolift-conundrum-liberals-cargo-plane-inefficient-1960s-era-gas-guzzler

#83 Crazed and a little confused on 10.06.19 at 2:00 pm

Ok with all this political talk. Im sure some people benefited from the upheaval of stocks during the November rut.
I sold most of my mutual funds during that time . I was down about 8-13% during that time and maybe i should of kept it until February.. but i had most of these during 2003 so you can guess i made major gains holding it till 2018 except 1 mutual fund which i still have.

However because i sold and bought many times in October till December. I increased my manulife and bristol Meyer’s dividends about 40%
I did so with apple and Pfizer to a lesser extent.

Using that mutual fund money i bought into reits and some more blue chip like finning and molson . I sold some stock and reits just last week. My apple is sold for 219 and cuminar reit 13.34. I made money so lets get out and wait for another opportunity. Like a bus another one will be coming.
I know this site doesn’t recommend frequency trading but the market is a freaking yo_yo with trump . I rather get out with something than lose
Almost every Tom, joe and Larry is expecting a recession in 2020.
I know garth et al dont expect such a upheaval and or suggest a ride it out mentality.

I dont think i can. I live hear in the 604 district and you gotta be a little bit risky to get a head here. But you can also say i do follow garth advice because i have had apple since it was 109 and the cuminar reit i had for almost 3 years. I just rebalancing . But ready to buy in when and if it drops.

By the way i did buy Marijuana etf. Even with it tanking so bad. Im up about 20 % and it gives dividends about $308 every 3 months.
Just mitigate your risks. But i dont recommend amateurs to do what i do. I do what mutual fund advisors do. I buy blue chip when they are down and hold. I still have over 20 k in cash waiting for an opportunity.

So in view of personal interest trump being president has made me a little more richer than otherwise. I still think he is insane though. He runs the govt like he is a bully on the playground

#84 T2 on his Easter Vacation on 10.06.19 at 2:18 pm

He’s on his Easter Vacation to Florida flying back and forth to Ottawa, on the government jet that you paid for with your tax dollars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAYs_Nb-NKU

#85 SoggyShorts on 10.06.19 at 2:19 pm

#60 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.06.19 at 8:46 am
TDS questionnaire:

1) Name five things Trump has done as POTUS that you agree with (appointments, laws, exec orders, military action, etc. Not squishy things or mere words. ACTIONS).

2) Five things you disagree with. Same criteria.

Post your answers right here if you’re bold. If you have trouble with EITHER question, you may well be suffering from TDS. If you have trouble with BOTH, you may not be as well informed about his presidency as you thought.
*******************************
Alright, so I knew I was going to have trouble finding 5 things he did that I liked so I cheated and searched for a list of “Trump’s Accomplishments” and it didn’t go so well.

Here’s a list of 5 things the Trump administration is proud of that I think they should be ashamed of:

♦Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
♦Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
♦Issued Executive Order to keep Guantanamo Bay open.
♦Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
♦Cancelled the Clean Power Plan&pulled out of Paris Accord.

So please explain to me the whole TDS thing… am I considered “deranged” for not liking the above changes and people who like Gitmo, bigger military, bank deregulation, and pollution are the good guys?

The source for the above list: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/

Can we see your lists, please?

#86 conan on 10.06.19 at 2:25 pm

#79 Spectacle on 10.06.19 at 11:56 am

I can’t think of one thing that he has done that I like…..

Wait…. he agreed with the Democrats that something should be done about prescription drug prices.

That’s it .

Everything else is a joke…. 5 things that I do not like , more like 5 thousand things.

#87 Fred Mudtz on 10.06.19 at 8:41 pm

I hear they’re always looking for gasoline down at MSNBC.The smart money disagrees. Is this why my pro-Trump portfolio performance trebles Doug’s silly patter?

#88 Future Expatriate on 10.06.19 at 11:18 pm

“Hasn’t blown things up”

Yet.

Yet.