Stuff happens

Despite Wednesday’s market spanking, it’s been quite the year.  Including dividends, Bay Street is ahead close to 20% in 2019. Wall Street has added 15%. Balanced, boring, pedestrian, sleep-at-night portfolios are running double digits in the black. Even wrinklies with less growth stuff and more fixed income are up 7%. Hard to argue that a liquid portfolio has beat the socks off bank deposits, brain-dead investment certificates or real estate that costs a bundle to buy and maintain.

But, but, but, the Rabble cries. What if there’s a recession, or the Orange One goes down hard and starts a civil war between Brietbart’s militia and the Antifa army? Or if Brexit blows up just as China rolls tanks into HK, Israel bombs Iran and Putin’s nuke-powered cruise missiles backfire, blowing up the Arctic? What then Mr. Smartypants advisor dude?

Well, stuff is always happening and the first thing worried people should do is look over their shoulders. Check out history. See what’s taken place in past decades when the SHTF. In fact since this pathetic blog first crawled out of the primordial ooze and grew legs (shapely ones) in 2008 we’ve had our fair share of grief. The GFC was just ending after a 55% market plop. Then the 2011 US debt ceiling crisis hit. Then the 2015 oil price collapse. Then the 2016 Trump bombshell. Then the 2018 Christmas Bear Market Massacre. And we’re still standing.

In fact over that decade a balanced, diversified 60/40 portfolio which was totally ignored (except for a little annual rebalancing) has delivered an average of 7%. Unless you diddled with it, tried to time the market and thought you were being smarter than everyone else. (You’re not.) If you bailed every time the steerage section moaned, gnashed and forecast Armageddon, returns would be far less and you’d have a perforated bowel.

But what now? Are we at the end of a ten-year economic expansion and about to head over a cliff? Is it different this time?

Markets have been tanky this week thanks to a slump in manufacturing. Not just in the US. Globally things have been slowing. Land Rover is hurting in the UK, thanks in part to Bojo. The Australian central bank cut rates again, cuz the ‘roos there are in a housing funk. Chinese data has sucked lately. The ECB is now more stimulating than Deepika Padukone. South America is a smouldering, political mess. And the ongoing American-Sino trade war is sapping growth everywhere.

Of course it all comes down to the States. And Bloomberg economists are pegging the odds of a recession next year at 25%. That’s it. Pffft.

How is it possible the economy, markets and portfolios will keep chugging along? First, manufacturing data – which has caused this week’s dip – is growing irrelevant. In Canada less than 15% of our GDP comes out of factories, and in the US 70% of the entire economy is generated by consumer spending. It’s still robust. People are spendy because job creation has been outstanding, interest rates are still cheap and household income’s been rising. When families spend, corps make money, Profits are good. Stocks go up.

Second, Trump may be an unpredictable, quixotic, truth-bending rebel now in serious political trouble, but he’s no idiot. No way he’s going into the 2020 campaign with a lingering trade war, the threat of a recession or a market sell-off. Besides, its Year Three of the presidential cycle, and traditionally this has been a bullish time for investors. Plus, don’t forget seasonality – the six-month period from November to May is traditionally the strongest of the year for equity markets. Miss those gains, and you‘ve historically missed a lot.

Third, this is 2019. We’re in the midst of an AI, 5G, autonomous-driving, drone-delivery, online revolution which is making society more efficient, productive and profitable, leading to the creation of omnibus conglomerates like Amazon which were unfathomable a decade ago. None of this is going away. (And it’s also responsible for populism, Trump, Brexit, nationalism and trade tensions which result when traditional employment vanishes. But these forces are destined to lose.)

Finally, focus more on your own financial plan than the swirl of current events. If you’re trying to save for a downpayment in four years, have a kid going to uni in a decade or want to retire at age 60, then set a goal, invest and stick to it. Flipping in and out of assets because you’re scared of Trump being impeached or factory data in Europe is just nuts. History says so. Logic confirms it. Set up a correctly-weighted portfolio, then forget the damn thing. Recall that some of the best-performing accounts at a major US brokerage are those of dead people. They get it. Buy and hold.

So, yeah, the economy will slow. October may be dark and stormy. And we’re living in an era of political bankruptcy. Doesn’t matter. Next month you’ll still be a month older. Time is your most precious asset. Don’t blow it fretting over the immaterial.

About the picture...

“Have read your blog for years and enjoy it very much,” writes Gerry. “Thank you for sharing your insightful perspectives on personal finances and politics. I came across this picture with the caption ‘Never buy a dog when you’re drunk’.

“I do enjoy your gallery of crazy canines and this may not fit perfectly with your theme, but when I saw it with the caption I immediately thought of your site.”

Thanks, I think.

117 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 10.02.19 at 4:26 pm

Flop’s Public Service Announcement.

I have been using Turmeric to treat a couple of my ailments, in particular, inflamed gums and arthritis, and I was just researching something and in light of a recent post regarding Alzheimers, I will just leave this here in case it helps someone out…

M45BC

Curcumin May Be Useful in Preventing and Treating Alzheimer’s Disease.

“Alzheimer’s disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease in the world and a leading cause of dementia.

Unfortunately, no good treatment is available for Alzheimer’s yet.

Therefore, preventing it from occurring in the first place is of utmost importance.

There may be good news on the horizon because curcumin has been shown to cross the blood-brain barrier (39).

It’s known that inflammation and oxidative damage play a role in Alzheimer’s disease, and curcumin has beneficial effects on both (40).

In addition, a key feature of Alzheimer’s disease is a buildup of protein tangles called amyloid plaques. Studies show that curcumin can help clear these plaques (41).

Whether curcumin can really slow down or even reverse the progression of Alzheimer’s disease in people is currently unknown and needs to be studied properly.”

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/top-10-evidence-based-health-benefits-of-turmeric

#2 Blacksheep on 10.02.19 at 4:31 pm

Dog breath #33, Past the peak # 147,

Watched the Vids from Zero Hedge too, then took Tony’s info and searched independently for graphs/proof, in attempt to discredit his findings. It doesn’t take long to find graphs with an alternate (usually longer) timeline than those used by pro climate change camp, which 100% supports his argument. The sources for the documentation found comes from organizations that are internationally considered reliable: USDA, NASA, NOAA, IPCC.

This whole exercise in independent self education, took about 30 minutes.

Climate change is being used as a tool to keep third world countries from developing (the West doesn’t need more competition) while controlling/taxing the crap out of the West.

Greta’s handlers and their ilk, should be ashamed. Using children as pawns from all over the world, watching them freak out over what has now become religion, not science, is disgusting child abuse.

#3 expat on 10.02.19 at 4:31 pm

I believe if people held through all the downdrafts from Oct 2018 they would be flat for the year.

If they had sold in October 2018 and bought at Christmas 2018 they would be up 20% or so.

But most people didn’t sell and did what their advisors told them to so.

Stay the course I believe is the industry mantra.

Doesn’t hindsight make you look smart? – Garth

#4 expat on 10.02.19 at 4:35 pm

Doesn’t hindsight make you look smart? – Garth

I was pointing out something that is not in your note.

Nothing more

#5 Brian Ripley on 10.02.19 at 4:36 pm

For Vancouver housing lookers, the September data and my charts are up: http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Res-Listings down 27% from JUN 2012 high
Res-Sales down 55% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 17%
Current Months of Inventory = 6

Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 13.1% from SEP 2017 Peak
Up 90% in last 10 years

Vancouver TownHouse Price
Down 10.7% from JUN 2018 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 55% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Townhouses

Vancouver Condo Price
Down 7.5% from JUN 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 46% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.2 Condos

#6 Flop... on 10.02.19 at 4:48 pm

Hey Crowdie, you’re slipping.

Do I need to get another Comedy Brother?

You were talking about kicking in teeth, and I quipped, at least wait until everyone gets free dental.

Anyway, you always supported my project so I’ll show you this one.

Detached liveable house in Vancouver central for 800k.

It more has the footprint of a townhome and could be rented at a much lower cost than the mortgage, however it exists and someone who wants to get off the rental roundabout will snap it up at some stage…

M45BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4320-miller-street

#7 JSS on 10.02.19 at 4:50 pm

mmm…Deepika

#8 Drill Baby Drill on 10.02.19 at 5:01 pm

I believe the election polls are out by about 5 – 7% in favour of the PC’s. The Liberals are in for a shock.

#9 Mr Fundamental on 10.02.19 at 5:04 pm

“I was pointing out something that is not in your note.

Nothing more”

You can always pick dates to prove whatever point you like. Luckily, over the long run, the economy keeps growing and the market keeps going up. Call me an optimist.

Stocks are on sale! Just keep buying, and never sell. You’ll be just fine.

#10 Stan Brooks on 10.02.19 at 5:06 pm

#189 Mattl on 10.02.19 at 3:01 pm
Stan – you’ve lost your mind. If my home and money is worthless, I’d hate to be in your position (no money no home).

Do not judge rashly says the bible.

You can’t be in my position, some 100 IQ points short of it.

And yes, your home is near worthless expect for the banks and municipalities/through interest and taxes.
The wealthy you, how many times have you been to a quality restaurant lately? How many times have you paid for the bill of the whole company?.. Zero.. One . maybe… precisely…

That wealth is in your mind.. it is not real. Then you wake up with the fingers in the electric outlet and your behind applauding…

Cheers,

#11 Dave on 10.02.19 at 5:06 pm

Lots of news in BC that the real estate is picking up????

Overall prices in YVR are 7.3% below last year’s level and detached houses have fallen 8.6%. – Garth

#12 SunShowers on 10.02.19 at 5:10 pm

Hi Garth, I have an actual proper question for you (or maybe one of your math-loving associates to address on the weekend)

Since as we all know, the DB pensions our parents and grandparents enjoyed (and continue to judge Millennials as if they still existed) are kaput, the best we can hope for are employer matched RRSP plans.

The good news is that the employer will match a percentage of contributions, usually up to a maximum of 3, 4, or 5%. The bad news is that these are more often than not invested in mutual funds with outfits like Manulife, which have sky-high MERs.

Is there an inflection point you have seen where these MERs get high enough that someone would come out ahead with a fee-based adviser and turning down the free money from their employer?

Never turn down free money. – Garth

#13 Linda on 10.02.19 at 5:14 pm

October in the stock market has the implosion mystique. It is sort of the adult version of Halloween. Trick or Treat with Scary Monsters:) Whether Trump remains as POTUS is ultimately not relevant to how stocks perform, but I’ve no doubt any violent fluctuations will be accredited to the outcome.

Regardless of the drama, in the end people will still eat, drink & need shelter. Trade for what they want. While I do expect the October market scares I also expect the holiday effect. Food, decorations, presents, travel, seasonal hiring et al. Don’t see a market meltdown changing that.

#14 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 10.02.19 at 5:27 pm

Absolutely, keep your portfolio balanced and don’t sweat the small stuff.

But gamble EVERYTHING on Toronto and the Make Believes!!

Tonight they will continue their fabulous 162 DAY UNBEATEN STREAK against some team from Ottawa!!!

It’s DIFFERENT in the GTA!!!

I have seen the light, and it is

BLUE AND WHITE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#15 How to ensure a minority government on 10.02.19 at 5:34 pm

With the federal candidates this time all being a bunch of amateurs getting ready for huge deficit spending, it would seem that perhaps the best one can hope for is a minority government. At least they may then partly thwart each other’s idiotic plans. My question to you all: how to vote to maximize the odds of a minority government?

#16 Brian Ripley on 10.02.19 at 5:36 pm

Tony Heller aka Steve Goddard produces misleading narratives.

#2 Blacksheep (and your anonymous bretheren) … Educate yourself by actually reading USDA, NASA, NOAA, IPCC etal

Mallen Baker Debunking Tony Heller’s ‘Gift to Climate Alarmists’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjPkclkZh6o

Skeptical Science:
https://skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=4225#128478

DeSmog
https://www.desmogblog.com/steven-goddard

NASA Charts
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/

NOAA Charts
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/start

IPCc Reports
https://www.ipcc.ch/

USDA Research
https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/

SEE ALSO my repost (from Wikileaks) of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program ‘Climate Science Special Report’ (CSSR): http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/very-high-confidence

#17 acdel on 10.02.19 at 5:45 pm

Thanks for the great laugh today Garth and I mean that in a good way! Great Blog!

#18 Deplorable Dude on 10.02.19 at 5:45 pm

I’m sorry….I’ve been a long time Trump fan….but today he’s gone too far….this is the final straw…if this doesn’t get him impeached I don’t know what will….

He tweeted a Nickleback meme on ….

Oh the humanity.

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.02.19 at 5:51 pm

@#6 Flop

No worries Floppie.
You were right. I drank a pot of coffee before my rant.
And I like the “dont do it until everyone gets free dental”…
I just think that wont happen ’til every crosswalk is “Rainbow”….

#20 Tbone on 10.02.19 at 5:57 pm

#12 sun showers

I have a plan at work with manulife .
I invested in mawer balanced and its at .35 mer
Typical mer for that fund is close to 1.0
Check it out , you may be surprised at what your company negotiated .

#21 conan on 10.02.19 at 6:03 pm

Lots of news in BC that the real estate is picking up???? -Dave.

If I lived in Hong Kong I would be moving .

Multiply that by how many people want to do that and we might have another mini boom in Vancouver.

I had to look her up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMHyHGedigc

#22 Tony on 10.02.19 at 6:14 pm

Trump is in zero political trouble, the dems have gone mental

Canada is pooched with the coming left wing coalition

Albertans are done and gone

The leftists can figure out how to pay for their grand schemes without it and maybe SK

Horizontal fracking is a money losing scam and depletion rates are overwhelming production.

The US will buy all the oilsands product it can get.

#23 BlogDog123 on 10.02.19 at 6:21 pm

Radio host taking issue with “Declaring a Climate Emergency” in Toronto.

Meaningless words and posturing because their previous message isn’t getting people wound up. Wrong word: emergency.

Let’s ask our elected officials what they are doing in this ‘climate emergency’:

Is any city employee on 24/7 standby during this emergency?
Have any employees had their agendas cleared to deal with this emergency?
Are there daily updates, dashboards, reports on progress being reviewed?
Are the police, fire, ambulance, treasurer, public health director engaged?

What are the key city leaders doing during this climate emergency? I think they’re planning their kerosene guzzling vacation flights with the family for winter break… That’s what they’re doing.

The operations centre in Toronto that is usually buzzing during real emergencies like big flooding or hydro lines down: Anything happening there?

So get your heads out of your assess and leave the emergency planning to someone who knows what they are talking about…

#24 Joe Schmoe on 10.02.19 at 6:30 pm

#12

I overthought that as well in the past. Companies generally say if you cash out the pension, you can’t get matching again for a period of time.

Over the course of 3 job moves I have moved all pensions into a balanced portfolio…some in RRSP some in LIRA dependent on the exit rules.

The free money far exceeds the inefficient MERs. And at some point you get to self direct.

#25 The Wet One on 10.02.19 at 6:30 pm

Who are these lunatics who concern themselves with Antifa?

Seriously?

How many people has Antifa killed? Bombed? Tortured? Stabbed? Raped? Robbed?

I’d really like to know.

Punching wannabe and actual Nazis doesn’t make you the greatest threat to humankind known to exist. It just doesn’t. Those people (the punchers of Nazis that is) are also known as the “Greatest Generation.” Which is, of course, entirely debatable, but it beats being a Hippie (The Nazis were actually bona fide evil, whereas “The Man” was, y’know, just society with all that entails).

Get a grip!!!

#26 gimme stuff on 10.02.19 at 6:41 pm

How is it possible the economy, markets and portfolios will keep chugging along?

====
There you go – ppl can pay more taxes.

#27 Bob on 10.02.19 at 6:45 pm

#5 Brian Ripley on 10.02.19 at 4:36 pm
For Vancouver housing lookers, the September data and my charts are up: http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html..
_ _ _
And yet prices continue to drop.

Those involved in the Real Estate Industrial Complex need to accept the Days of Wine & Roses & Chinese Millionaires paying big bucks to buy your crackshack are over. For good.

PS if realtors think Hong Kong money is going to save plump prices, know that the first thing Winnie the Pooh will do after sending troops into HK will be to slap the mainland’s capital controls onto everyone in the former British colony.

#28 acdel on 10.02.19 at 6:56 pm

#17 Deplorable Dude

Oh common, why such the hardships on Nickleback? :)

These guys have made millions; paid huge taxes, employed many, entertained many; oh I get it; they are from Alberta, Alberta does nothing right except make a huge contribution to a Canadian way of life; Oh the horror! :)

Just Burn it to the ground! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxgeSv88c2w

#29 PastThePeak on 10.02.19 at 6:56 pm

#12 SunShowers

My company group RRSP is with Sunlife (so should be similar), and the MERs are reasonable. Not as good as ETFs, but much better than through the banks.

Like 0.4% for a balanced type fund.

#30 Greg Ellis on 10.02.19 at 7:01 pm

Greg: I live in the US but have a Canadian RIF with TD. Now that Schwab and others are charging zero for trades and options in the US, I wonder if it will happen in Canada. TD is brutal. Selling a call costs about $12 US to initiate and $43 if exercised. Same trade with Fidelity here about $18 total for 5 contracts for both ends. Noticed TD was decimated when Schwab announced this. They were getting much more in fees than other brokerages. Looks good on them.

#31 Graeme on 10.02.19 at 7:15 pm

Gold returned 6% annually since 2009
roughly $850 then to $1500 now
And you didn’t even need to rebalance
(good because that means digging up the back yard every year!)
Just sayin’

#32 Reality is stark on 10.02.19 at 7:27 pm

The economy is slowing. Trade wars slow the world economy. Stock markets rise because central bankers drive the cost of money to zero. They force you into more risk at the same time as people on balance are getting older and want less risk.
They try to trick you into thinking things are getting better when things are getting worse. There will be no trade agreement with China as they are readily willing to kill citizens of Hong Kong which will repulse the American public.
Expect the economy to continue to worsen.
What central bankers do to artificially goose the stock market has no bearing on the viability of the economy. That is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

#33 GBiddy on 10.02.19 at 7:27 pm

And it’s also responsible for populism, Trump, Brexit, nationalism and trade tensions which result when traditional employment vanishes. But these forces are destined to lose. – Garth

In case you didn’t get the notice:

“The future does not belong to globalists. The future belongs to patriots. The future belongs to sovereign and independent nations who protect their citizens, respect their neighbors and honor the differences that make each country special and unique.” – DJT

I like your confidence (‘destined to lose’) but wonder where it comes from. Certainly not insider knowledge.

If the forces that gave us our identities and our nations is destined to lose, then what might replace it terrifies me. It should you too.

#34 Clem Kadiddlehopper on 10.02.19 at 7:31 pm

Yup – I try to mimic dead people as much as possible in my investment portfolio. Has worked so far.

Just leave them puppies alone, with the only difference being the re-investing of interest and divs every now and then. Simple and easy.

#35 Debtslavecreator on 10.02.19 at 7:51 pm

For a small slice of a high risk investor’s portfolio, instead of 10% in gold, do 5 instead and consider putting the other 5 in several junior gold royalty companies and a bit in Franco Nevada. You can research RZZ, SSL, ELY,MTA,REN

Rocks are not handy

Not a recommendation on these specific stocks – just a starting point for your own research if you want a high risk slice or if you’re someone who owns too much shiny

Balanced and diversified is the way to go for 90-95 %

#36 Deplorable Dude on 10.02.19 at 7:57 pm

#28 acdel……

#MNGA. – Make Nickleback Great Again !

#37 akashic record on 10.02.19 at 7:58 pm

M. Bernier is a sore loser who, when democratically defeated for the Conservative leadership, started his own party where he appointed himself. These are not the highest leadership traits. – Garth

That’s one reading of the tea leaves.
An other could be that this is the signature of a dedicated, self-starter principled leader, who is willing to start from scratch. When you started your own company, did you hire someone to lead it?

#38 Blacksheep on 10.02.19 at 7:59 pm

Brian # 15,

“Tony Heller aka Steve Goddard produces misleading narratives.”

“#2 Blacksheep (and your anonymous bretheren) … Educate yourself by actually reading USDA, NASA, NOAA, IPCC etal”

“Mallen Baker Debunking Tony Heller’s ‘Gift to Climate Alarmists’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjPkclkZh6o
——————————————————
The Mallen Baker video you linked to, is a joke.

I’m looking for facts so I can independently confirm or deny, but he gives excuses and reasons why, the only timeline that’s relevant, is the one put forward by climate alarmist. He even at one point, creates his own graph (see his name in the bottom right corner) to suit his argument.

I’ll try to be clearer this second time.

I did not believe or take a single word or graph, Tony Heller presented as fact. Let’s be honest, all he did was give his opinion on how the timeline of the data presented as evidence by climate alarmists, has been manipulated to get a desired outcome, one supporting the human driven climate change story.

I googled every graph / topic / timeline Tony supplied and found an additional yet different, parallel graph, supporting his perspective, all from one of the four letter acronym (NASA or whomever) global / government institutions I mentioned in my last post.

The rest of the links you supplied are useless propaganda, telling me “Why one degree matters”

Please.

Time is not on your side, as the days are definitely numbered before this whole scam blows up in the systems face, resulting in an even greater loss of the public’s trust.

How many young children does your kind have now believing, they will not live to be adults, get married, or have a family?

You and anyone whom promotes this utter bullshit, should really be ashamed….

#39 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 10.02.19 at 8:00 pm

Schwab cut commissions to 0 last week and now TD Ameritrade has cut and also E-trade. Any news on us up here in Canakistan, are we in for the big lift off of no commission on trades? There is foreboding news regarding the future election on this blog and it is increasingly disturbing.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.02.19 at 8:08 pm

@#27 Bob
“the first thing Winnie the Pooh will do after sending troops into HK will be to slap the mainland’s capital controls onto everyone in the former British colony….”
++++
Good one.
Most non chinese don’t realize….
Even the phrase “Winne the Poo” or the cartoon likeness is banned in China due to Chairman’s Xi’s close resemblance to “The Poo”…..

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-40627855

#41 Blackdog on 10.02.19 at 8:13 pm

@Blacksheep

Would love to hear your critique of this.

https://youtu.be/O6f4Q_ReMxA?fbclid=IwAR3Im8IG6byVCaqKqD2X-1BaT2bjrobmIbstyV18YJ8ZokKHOOLuUmrdTV0

#42 acdel on 10.02.19 at 8:16 pm

#36 Deplorable Dude

lol, to each there own! See them live and they are right up there with any great rock concerts that I have attended in my lifetime (which are many in years) regarding the crowds response; just awesome! Great live band!

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.02.19 at 8:19 pm

Hmmmm.
Is civil war breaking out in Iraq?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-protests-internet/internet-access-cut-across-much-of-iraq-ngo-idUSKBN1WH28Q

Why is it referred to as “civil”?

#44 akashic record on 10.02.19 at 8:51 pm

Trump on Oprah in 1988 if he run for president and what would he do. What a difference 31 years make…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI

#45 Yukon Elvis on 10.02.19 at 8:57 pm

Amazing to watch the news today. Bernie had chest pains, went to the hospital, had two stents inserted into arteries in his heart, and is taking some time off. MSM is calling it an arterial blockage, That is called a heart attack. Why can’t they just say Bernie is old and had a heart attack? I guess calling it a heart attack is not politically correct now. Wouldn’t want to inhibit his chances of beating Trump……..

#46 Dutchy on 10.02.19 at 9:06 pm

And it’s also responsible for populism, Trump, Brexit, nationalism and trade tensions which result when traditional employment vanishes. But these forces are destined to lose. – Garth

I completely agree with you Garth.
Reasons why Scheer should loose the election.

#47 oh bouy on 10.02.19 at 9:13 pm

@#45 Yukon Elvis on 10.02.19 at 8:57 pm
Amazing to watch the news today. Bernie had chest pains, went to the hospital, had two stents inserted into arteries in his heart, and is taking some time off. MSM is calling it an arterial blockage, That is called a heart attack. Why can’t they just say Bernie is old and had a heart attack? I guess calling it a heart attack is not politically correct now. Wouldn’t want to inhibit his chances of beating Trump……..
///////////////////////////

the way trumps been going he may be next in line for an arterial blockage.

#48 acdel on 10.02.19 at 9:14 pm

#45 Yukon Elvis

Meanwhile the left socialist are calling it a mild case of indigestion and the poor guy should eat more veggies.

While they are driving and texting or flying off to there next protest all made with petroleum products and arriving in a gas powered vehicle; laptops, clothes made of or petroleum used to make it while smoking or ingesting legal cannabis telling us on how we should live.

You just cannot make this stuff up! :)

#49 DON on 10.02.19 at 9:26 pm

“No way he’s going into the 2020 campaign with a lingering trade war, the threat of a recession or a market sell-off. ”

Who has more time to burn Trump or China. I think China will move slow or slower than Trump. Some analysts are already predicting a no deal resulting from October’s trade meetings. Will Trump make concessions to get his deal or will his ego get the best of him.

#50 YoChina on 10.02.19 at 9:38 pm

I am certain that the regular Chinese guy, is just like us. He wants to prosper. He wants to be happy. To have a family just like us. I bear him no ill will. I wish him the best. I have no desire to meddle in his
domestic affairs. I wish him peace and prosperity.

It is his ruler, the Chinese Communist Party that I do not trust.

#51 Long-Time Lurker on 10.02.19 at 10:01 pm

Too big to lend? JPMorgan cash hit Fed limits, roiling U.S. repos
David Henry


NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has become so big that some rival banks and analysts say changes to its $2.7 trillion balance sheet were a factor in a spike last month in the U.S. “repo” market, which is crucial to many borrowers….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-repo-jpmorgan-analysis-idUSKBN1WG439

#52 SunShowers on 10.02.19 at 10:12 pm

#20 Tbone on 10.02.19 at 5:57 pm
#29 PastThePeak on 10.02.19 at 6:56 pm

About a decade ago my group RRSP through my employer at the time used Manulife, and all of the growth-oriented equity based mutual funds had MERs ranging from 1.5%-2.5%

#53 IHCTD9 on 10.02.19 at 10:13 pm

#33 GBiddy on 10.02.19 at 7:27 pm

If the forces that gave us our identities and our nations is destined to lose, then what might replace it terrifies me. It should you too.
———-

I totally get nationalistic sentiment, but what is happening is a natural force beyond our control IMHO. Since the dawn of peoplekind, folks have been congregating together in larger and larger groups. As they did, life improved as efficiencies were created, specializations formed, and folks began to have the time to create and innovate, rather than spend all day just providing the basic necessities of life.

I sometimes wonder if we missed an important note in the Old Testament story of the Tower of Babel where God scattered the people of the Earth saying: “If as one people speaking the same language they have begun to do this, then nothing they plan to do will be impossible for them.”

Do human abilities have near boundless potential, and is it via unity and common purpose that it is realized?

Nations, maybe then continental states, then the final transition, no borders at all. Again just IMHO, even if it seems a little far fetched, the ultimate goal will be to get off this planet. Humanity will not progress further past a fully integrated and maximized Global economy. That’s as far as it goes as long as we are stuck here. We also know the Earth is temporary and will someday be swallowed by the Sun. If we make it that far, leaving Earth will not be optional.

If we don’t make it, then the “great filter” theory may have been proven correct, which could mean that no intelligent life has ever left their planet of origin due to self destruction. It may even be designed into the system to be this way.

You can call it part of our “predestined evolution”, I don’t see us stopping at nation states as there is logical reason for that to happen.

#54 Dumb Wealth on 10.02.19 at 10:16 pm

The average investor account makes nothing close to index returns because people trade too much. They buy on greed and sell on fear, at precisely the top and bottom of the market.

Doing less/nothing is not really just to benefit the industry. It actually is an important way to avoid emotional mistakes. The biggest way an advisor can add value is by helping to manage these emotions.

But once an investor recognizes their own harmful emotions, the investing experienced becomes much more vivid.

https://dumbwealth.com/the-intelligence-of-dumb-money/

#55 acdel on 10.02.19 at 10:26 pm

Last Blog for the evening!

It is a reflection night, was listening to a song a few hours back, a simple line stood out; “I never needed government to hold my hand”!

Besides basic rules of law, education and civil liberty, neighbors being neighbors and looking out for one another; Chinese, U.S., latin America, Europe, special interest groups etc could care less about us and yet we care so much about them to the point that we know the way things are going we will collapse. So??? What do we do???? Sorry Garth, Globalism is a myth, it will never work unless you are fortunate enough to have the money to invest. Your stats say we are hooped!

#56 Cassandra on 10.03.19 at 12:02 am

#53 IHCTD9
Multiculturalism and current Western society is the Tower of Babel. Things are not going to continue in the same fashion as they did since the end of the USSR.

We’re back to a spheres of influence game with large empires vying for control and power over non aligned countries. This will basically be the story of this century. The ongoing battle between the liberal United States led world order and the ambitions of China to control the Eurasian continent. Nation states will become less important but we’re not going to move towards worldwide integration. Quite the opposite.

Brexit and Trump will be remembered as the events that really began this period of time. Britain will become more closely tied to the United States. The offer by the Americans to purchase Greenland wasn’t a joke. It’s just an early sign of how things are going to go.

#57 NoName on 10.03.19 at 12:06 am

#41 Blackdog on 10.02.19 at 8:13 pm
@Blacksheep

Would love to hear your critique of this.

https://youtu.be/O6f4Q_ReMxA?fbclid=IwAR3Im8IG6byVCaqKqD2X-1BaT2bjrobmIbstyV18YJ8ZokKHOOLuUmrdTV0

iam not blackshep but iam sure that he would approve this message. i wonder does that ted talk scientist colects frikvent flyers or airmiles points…

#194 NoName on 10.01.19 at 4:01 pm
Interesting read

https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/amp/?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

#58 NoName on 10.03.19 at 12:15 am

i love this chart especialy pull down manu and slider…

https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants

#59 GBiddy on 10.03.19 at 12:29 am

#53 IHCTD9

We’ve gone from tribes to villages, to city-states, to nations, to empires, back to nations, then we moved towards post-nationhood and can see where that got us, and now we’re retrenching back to nation states.

Seems to me other then empires, not much outlasts or makes more sense than nations. Perhaps that’s the one form of collective agreement humans can manage with any longevity. Too soon to say, but maybe.

I predict greater fragmentation, not less. Western separatism. Quebec separatism. California voted on becoming 3 states this year. China’s expansionist dreams muted by the realities of self-fracturing from within. Brexit. Crumbling EU.

The writing is on the wall. The future belongs to patriots. Always has.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.19 at 12:47 am

Soooo
Trudeau skips the first English language debate.
He then participates in a french language debate where he dominates in his own language and Butz bans the Greens and the PPC…..that may bite him.

His ONLY english language debate will be in Ontario where he hopes to pick up more seats than Quebec.
( One fails to see how Ontario’s “punishing” Doug Ford and voting Liberal makes any sense to a hick from BC ……but …. I digress).

Then Trudeau will have one more french language debate before the final election.

Libs are hoping for 40 seats in Quebec.
75 seats in Ontario.
2 debates in french and 1 in english…..bizarre math to try and win seats in Ontario unless he things the hatred for Ford is that strong..

#61 Al on 10.03.19 at 1:15 am

”This whole exercise in independent self education, took about 30 minutes.”

I’m glad blacksheep got to the bottom of this climate change shenanigans. He did in 30 minutes what most climate scientists haven’t been able to do for decades. You should present it to the IPCC asap. Please put it on YouTube as a public service.

#62 Smoking Man on 10.03.19 at 1:37 am

Believe nothing. Drink till you pass out.

Everyone you meet is a sales pitch experiment.

Die standing straight up..

#63 Kool Aid on 10.03.19 at 4:47 am

My guess is a set it and forget it strategy with in a long running bull market seems counter intuitive.

It’s been a great ride for long term investors… taking one foot out of the market to turn paper to bricks & mortar, retire debt or fulfill a ones ambitions is part of the course.

Value is relative, a balanced and diversified asset set is prudent.

Interesting to read a few months back… Ray Dalio suggesting that this current era resembles pre warII.

The elastic bands of globalization are snapping back in a world that is now multipolar… may we live in very dull times with total returns of 5 to 6 percent.

#64 jess on 10.03.19 at 7:44 am

defamatory by Austria’s Supreme Court

https://gizmodo.com/facebook-must-delete-content-globally-if-its-considered-1838731178

#65 Penny Henny on 10.03.19 at 7:45 am

When Trudeau alleged Scheer is misleading Canadians about the government’s carbon price-and-rebate plan, Scheer fired back: “You’re a hypocrite on the environment. There’s only one leader here who had two planes in this campaign: one for the media and one for you and all your costumes and canoes.”

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/10/02/sparks-fly-in-french-language-election-debate.html

Garth that line was worthy of your writing.

#66 Tater on 10.03.19 at 8:34 am

#45 Yukon Elvis on 10.02.19 at 8:57 pm
Amazing to watch the news today. Bernie had chest pains, went to the hospital, had two stents inserted into arteries in his heart, and is taking some time off. MSM is calling it an arterial blockage, That is called a heart attack. Why can’t they just say Bernie is old and had a heart attack? I guess calling it a heart attack is not politically correct now. Wouldn’t want to inhibit his chances of beating Trump……..

—————————————

Rather than a left wing media conspiracy, perhaps they didn’t call it a heart attack because it wasn’t? A partially blocked artery can cause chest pain, but that isn’t a heart attack. A stent gets inserted and you can get back to regular activities far faster than if you had a heart attack.

#67 future expatriate on 10.03.19 at 8:40 am

“….but he’s no idiot”.

BWAH-HA-HA-HA-HA-H-H-HA-AH-H-AHA-A–AHA-H!!!

Gee Garth, you always are good for a laugh. And we here in Amerikastan need one, now more than ever.

And it is different, this time. The Neo-Soviet takeover to the right in the USA is going down, and Pütin is just about to cut ALL his losses.

How does a diversified portfolio do in a false flag nuclear/super tsunamic war between the US and China?

Asking for a friend.

#68 Penny Henny on 10.03.19 at 8:53 am

Sorry off topic here,

I was reading the comments in reference to the debate on the CBC website and Wow I was pleasantly surprised.
Lot of love for Scheer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tva-federal-french-language-debate-1.5306779

Not surprising though is CBC.ca trying to bury this coverage way down on their homepage.

#69 IHCTD9 on 10.03.19 at 9:21 am

#58 GBiddy on 10.03.19 at 12:29 am
___

You could be right too. The Great Filter Theory has Humanity at step 8 out of 9 where 9 is interstellar travel and colonization.

The Fermi Paradox rightly asks where are all the other intelligent life forms – the GFT attempts to explain why the Universe appears to have zero intelligent life in it other than us, ie – one (or more) of the 9 steps has never been achieved by any advanced life form.

Perhaps none have ever made the jump from the confines of their planet, and therefore met an eventual and unfortunate end.

#70 French Debate on 10.03.19 at 9:40 am

It was a circus, and you missed nothing, because they were busy trashing each other. The biggest waste of time in political history.

#71 JohnnyBGoode on 10.03.19 at 9:48 am

The world is ending.

#72 Dharma Bum on 10.03.19 at 9:48 am

Hey Now!

I took Garth’s advice regarding taking the CPP moolah as soon as it’s available (because, “why turn down free money from the government today when it may not be there tomorrow”), and submitted our applications to start the CPP cash flow in January 2020. Happy New Year.

The wife and I both turn 60 in October. Based on the amounts we are eligible for immediately, if taken now, will amount to about $93,000 by the time we’re 65, or $210,000 by the time we’re 70. That’s based on a conservative 5% yearly return (which is still way less than what we actually generate now on investments in our balanced and diversified liquid portfolios).

Notwithstanding all the theories and calculations about waiting until we’re 65 or 70 to start taking the money in order to get more per month starting in the future, based on the “dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow” rule, we feel better about having the head start with real cash in the bank growing now instead of a potentially larger income stream starting way later in life.

Besides, JT will probably spend our butts into oblivion in the next 5 years, and who knows if there will be anything left to dole out to us entitled boomers by then! Hahahaha!

Thanks Garth, for the sound reasoning.

#73 long time lurker on 10.03.19 at 9:56 am

Almost everyone i know are at best breaking even on stock market, what happened in the past 2 years basically wiped out all the gains from 2016. Heck, my gain (or should i say recovery) in the past 2 months were all wiped out in the past week and a half. Mean while, Garth is making 20% again. Amazing.

#74 Mattl on 10.03.19 at 9:58 am

#10 Stan Brooks on 10.02.19 at 5:06 pm
#189 Mattl on 10.02.19 at 3:01 pm
Stan – you’ve lost your mind. If my home and money is worthless, I’d hate to be in your position (no money no home).

Do not judge rashly says the bible.

You can’t be in my position, some 100 IQ points short of it.

And yes, your home is near worthless expect for the banks and municipalities/through interest and taxes.
The wealthy you, how many times have you been to a quality restaurant lately? How many times have you paid for the bill of the whole company?.. Zero.. One . maybe… precisely…

That wealth is in your mind.. it is not real. Then you wake up with the fingers in the electric outlet and your behind applauding…

Cheers,

—————————————————————-

What are you rambling about? I never claimed to be wealthy. And I couldn’t care less about what my home is worth, we live in it you dummy. Like I’m actually inside it right having a tea and working. Can you believe that? Where are you, in a tent? I assume you are in some piece of RE somewhere, owned by someone.

And no, I’ve never paid for the bill for my whole company, we have 80K employees so you would be correct in assuming that I wouldn’t be able to cover a 16mm bill at Nobu. But I do have a nice piece of grass fed brisket curing since Saturday that will be delish corned beef tonight. Local carrots and cauliflower and a Muga Reserve and dinner is served pal.

#75 Mattl on 10.03.19 at 10:05 am

#12 SunShowers on 10.02.19 at 5:10 pm
Hi Garth, I have an actual proper question for you (or maybe one of your math-loving associates to address on the weekend)

Since as we all know, the DB pensions our parents and grandparents enjoyed (and continue to judge Millennials as if they still existed) are kaput, the best we can hope for are employer matched RRSP plans.

The good news is that the employer will match a percentage of contributions, usually up to a maximum of 3, 4, or 5%. The bad news is that these are more often than not invested in mutual funds with outfits like Manulife, which have sky-high MERs.

Is there an inflection point you have seen where these MERs get high enough that someone would come out ahead with a fee-based adviser and turning down the free money from their employer?

Never turn down free money. – Garth

————————————————————–

I’ve been in a number of these plans and the MER’s are usually not too outrageous – mine current ones are right around 85bps – and never high enough the negate the 100% return you get. Most allow you to transfer a portion out every year as well. And my returns in these plans the past 15 years have been decent – my 3 years is 8.4% + the match. Zero downside.

#76 T on 10.03.19 at 10:10 am

Well …I guess the ISM numbers released this am should silence the “but the us consumer is fine” people from now on.

#77 Robert Ash on 10.03.19 at 10:37 am

I totally believe in Market economics, and the ablility of humans, to improve innovate and succeed… the problem with any rational analysis, is that the Policy makers are leaning on the ” Scales”. Up to you to consider this normal or not.. but it isn’t a free and equilibrium focused market any longer…

#78 David Prokop on 10.03.19 at 10:48 am

I really don’t like this “it’s been quite a year ” bragging, market is up 20% ….. yes, if you bought on Christmas eve last year you may be up 20%, if you’ve been holding for a year or 2 you are flat or down

#79 devore on 10.03.19 at 10:59 am

#44 akashic record

Trump on Oprah in 1988 if he run for president and what would he do. What a difference 31 years make

Are people just never allowed to change their minds, ever, even when growing and learning new information? What a strange position to take.

30 years is longer than most on this blog have been alive. I see this kind of attitude spouted all the time. People change. Ours is a culture of forgiveness and redemption, not eternal condemnation. That only leads to cancel culture, where people are driven to suicide due to being eternally shunned for things they said or did decades ago.

#80 Penny Henny on 10.03.19 at 11:14 am

No updated comments for hours??
Garth you must be on a plane back to Toronto

#81 Dutchy on 10.03.19 at 11:18 am

#53 IHCTD9 on 10.02.19 at 10:13 pm

Impressive post.
Wish I could express myself likewise.

Too bad we need to scroll through so many marginal posts on this blog to arrive at more enlightened comments such as yours.

#82 Tony on 10.03.19 at 11:20 am

Re: #1 Flop… on 10.02.19 at 4:26 pm

Grape seed extract and red wine together is far better than turmeric at preventing alzheimer’s.

#83 Tony on 10.03.19 at 11:22 am

Re: #62 Kool Aid on 10.03.19 at 4:47 am

I’ve always gone by Martin’s Zweig’s theory of strategic switching.

#84 Flop... on 10.03.19 at 11:28 am

Spend 30 seconds looking at this chart.

Click on the link.

We’ve come a long way, baby…

M45BC

“Visualizing The Thrilling Economic Growth of The Last 2000 Years

The world’s economy is seemingly poised for a slowdown, due to factors such as shifts in consumer spending, decreased global investment, and escalating tensions in the trade war between the U.S. and China. Historically, a variety of changes in international politics, technology, and monetary policy have influenced the trajectory of the world’s economy. Our newest visualization offers a timeline of the world’s economic history, with an emphasis on how worldwide GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP) has changed in response to major world events.

The way that people exchange goods and services has changed over time. In prehistoric times, bartering was the main economic activity. Over time, civilizations developed coins and paper money as currency to be used for trade. Fast forwarding to the twentieth century, credit cardsmade it even easier for consumers to make purchases and generate more demand for products and services. In addition, the rise of cryptocurrency in the twenty-first century has also revolutionized the way we use money across borders and could play an even greater role in the future.

Another theme in the timeline of the world’s major economic events is the increased interconnectedness of different nations’ economies. The rise of mercantilism after Columbus’ contact with the New World and the creation of Dutch East India Company affected how European nations viewed their own economies in relation to each other as well as colonized parts of the world. Global interconnectedness has also caused economic strife among countries in more recent years. For example, the OPEC oil embargo in the 1970s caused massive stagflation in the U.S., while the current trade war between the U.S. and China is affecting workers and consumers in the world’s two largest economies. As we rapidly approach a new decade, it will be interesting to see what new events will continue to shape the world’s economic history.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/timeline-economic-history

#85 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am

DELETED

#86 EB on 10.03.19 at 12:17 pm

# 53 IHCTD9 – “the final transition, no borders at all”

That’s the storyline from the people who plan to be on top of the global barrio, at least. They’re overplaying their hand a bit right now (the British apparently being slated to starve to death in the absence of a 20 year old trade agreement), but regardless you can be pretty sure they won’t be the ones buying cricket powder and algae cakes in the Green New World. That’s for the drones who live under the dictat of Historical Inevitability. Funny how nobody considers the universal fates of great administrative collectives (nobody said Empire, okay?), but awkward questions are frowned upon in any case.

#87 Damifino on 10.03.19 at 12:23 pm

#53 IHCTD9

You can call it part of our “predestined evolution”, I don’t see us stopping at nation states as there is logical reason for that to happen.
———————————–

I don’t see it if humanity can’t drop sectarianism at some point along the way. The sooner the better. The odds of that aren’t promising.

———————————–
If we don’t make it, then the “great filter” theory may have been proven correct, which could mean that no intelligent life has ever left their planet of origin due to self destruction.
———————————–

More likely, we’ll be confined here to due to purely physical constraints. The neighboring planets and their associated moons are exceedingly less hospitable than the place we inhabit. The energy we’re using to make Earth safe and comfortable is a pittance to what would be needed to do the same even on Mars which will likewise be cooked by the expanding sun when it dies.

Maybe Titan? Forget about it. Other solar systems? Places that take maybe 50 or more years to reach even traveling at light-speed, of which we will only ever achieve a minuscule fraction?

This is it. As always, it will be human ingenuity that pulls us up whenever it can triumph over superstition.

#88 IHCTD9 on 10.03.19 at 12:29 pm

#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am
Scheer and Kenney are planning to genocide. They are giving money to farmers to shoot Muslims:
___

I hear Info Wars is hiring…

#89 not so liquid in calgary on 10.03.19 at 12:35 pm

@ Drill Baby Drill on 10.02.19 at 5:01 pm

=========================================

Dog, I hope you’re correct!

Keep going, Riders!

#90 not so liquid in calgary on 10.03.19 at 12:37 pm

@ Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am

========================================

Hyperbole much?

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.03.19 at 12:54 pm

#80 Dutchy on 10.03.19 at 11:18 am
#53 IHCTD9 on 10.02.19 at 10:13 pm

Impressive post.
Wish I could express myself likewise.

Too bad we need to scroll through so many marginal posts on this blog to arrive at more enlightened comments such as yours.
———–
Obviously,
You’re easily impressed.
It’s called science “fiction” for a reason.

#92 SunShowers on 10.03.19 at 12:55 pm

#74 Mattl on 10.03.19 at 10:05 am

The last time I was enrolled in one of these a decade ago, the MERs ranged from 1.5-2.5%. That’s why I’m asking because those numbers are outrageous.

#93 SoggyShorts on 10.03.19 at 12:56 pm

#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am
Scheer and Kenney are planning to genocide. They are giving money to farmers to shoot Muslims:

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/10/01/jason-kenney-donated-100-to-a-defence-fund-for-an-alberta-farmowner-who-shot-a-tresspaser-he-calls-it-an-act-of-compassion-an-ethics-expert-calls-it-bad-judgment.html
*************************
Holy crap that might be the absolute worst click-bait lie I’ve seen posted here. You should be ashamed of yourself Amy

How do you go from that article to that post?

Some dude fired a warning shot at trespassers who were in the act of looting his vehicle on his farm and a ricochet hit one of them. Then the homeowner was being sued for 100K and Kenny pitched in $100 to help with legal defence. Also, the guy who was hit in the arm was named Watson which doesn’t sound super Muslim to me…

#94 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 10.03.19 at 12:56 pm

What I find interesting in Trump’s 30 year old interview is his verbal acuity. He wasn’t the best orator of all time, but he could recurse up and down a stack of ideas, pausing to make a side point and then returning to the main point. Night and day compared to today.

This is what happens when you hate reading, kids, and spend hours a day watching people shouting at each other on TV. And maybe not enough turmeric?

Anyway, I urge everyone to be proactive. If you’re at the office, check the executive washroom for Bidens, and report any if found. At home? Check under the bed! Don’t wait until The Donald has to call you out personally to do your part. See Something? Say Something!

#95 Ubul on 10.03.19 at 1:13 pm

#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am

Scheer and Kenney are planning to genocide. They are giving money to farmers to shoot Muslims:

What?!

#96 Russ on 10.03.19 at 1:25 pm

DELETED

#97 Stan Brooks on 10.03.19 at 1:28 pm

#73 Mattl on 10.03.19 at 9:58 am

GMO and pesticides rich corn and growth hormones produced beef I understand.

As for the sushi, I am hearing GMO rice with fukushima radioactive fish is quite tasty.

But who gave you the right to waste good Spanish wine?

#98 Don Guillermo on 10.03.19 at 2:08 pm

#195 MF on 10.02.19 at 3:12 pm
67 Don Guillermo on 10.02.19 at 11:42 am
Okay but that still doesn’t mean Canada can equal Venezuela any time soon. Totally different economies, culture, climate, demographics, and yes government. Never say never but it’s unlikely.
MF

********************************************

That fact that words such as “anytime soon” and “it’s unlikely” can even be used on this topic is disturbing enough.

#99 Blacksheep on 10.03.19 at 2:24 pm

Blackdog # 41,

Evangelist Professor Corinne Le Quéré delivers a passionate speech, long on emotions, but very on short historically based data. She uses the language typically heard when promoting the human driven climate change story: Trend Lines, Forecasts, Predictions, Models, Hypothesis and my fave, Recent Temperature Reconstructions.

She boldly claims:

“all of the warming trend, is caused by human activities”

And later follows with:

“I know, for the warming of the planet to stop, our emissions need to go down to zero”

Wow, this sounds like pretty bad news…

We all caused this climate catastrophe and since there is no god dammed way the world will cut its emissions, by even half in my life time, we are all doomed? (sarc. off)

Her children must be absolutely terrified.

#100 Blacksheep on 10.03.19 at 2:36 pm

AI # 60,

“I’m glad blacksheep got to the bottom of this”
—————————-
Hey, I’m only here to help…

#101 Brett in Calgary on 10.03.19 at 2:37 pm

Congratulations that’s the stupidest thing I’ve read in a long time.

=============
#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am
Scheer and Kenney are planning to genocide. They are giving money to farmers to shoot Muslims:

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/10/01/jason-kenney-donated-100-to-a-defence-fund-for-an-alberta-farmowner-who-shot-a-tresspaser-he-calls-it-an-act-of-compassion-an-ethics-expert-calls-it-bad-judgment.html

#102 Russ on 10.03.19 at 3:33 pm

Dear garth,

How was my content remarkably different than some others regarding Amy’s post?

Inquiring minds wish to know.

Cheers, R

A case of FDF. Frenzied Deleting Finger. – Garth

#103 Renter's Revenge! on 10.03.19 at 3:38 pm

#77 David Prokop on 10.03.19 at 10:48 am
I really don’t like this “it’s been quite a year ” bragging, market is up 20% ….. yes, if you bought on Christmas eve last year you may be up 20%, if you’ve been holding for a year or 2 you are flat or down

================================

It’s called cherry picking! Everyone does it. Just think of it as a way of looking on the bright side. Or as a way of poking fun at people of who sold when the market was down, while you held on, and now you’re back up, neener neener.

Besides, you have to pick a starting point when stating your returns, and using last Christmas as a starting point isn’t any less arbitrary than a year or two ago.

Just pick a point that favours your investment strategy and then brag about it online so everyone feels inadequate about their own strategies. That’s the point, isn’t it?

#104 Slim on 10.03.19 at 3:39 pm

#61 “Believe nothing. Drink till you pass out.

Everyone you meet is a sales pitch experiment.

Die standing straight up..” — Smoking Man

Or pass out straight up..

#105 Emissions on 10.03.19 at 3:39 pm

On weekends go to my cabin in the woods, and fire up the wood burning fireplace releasing lots of CO2. My forest trees are happy to be fed too, and take in the CO2 only giving back oxygen that we humans need to breathe. Its called photosynthesis that we are all taught in high school. The carbon tax story is nothing more than a hoax.

#106 jess on 10.03.19 at 3:40 pm

Bipartisan Bill to Combat Anonymous Companies Introduced by Eight Key Senators
Statement by Global Financial Integrity

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Introduced Thursday by a bipartisan group of eight US senators, the Improving Laundering Laws and Increasing Comprehensive Information Tracking of Criminal Activity in Shell Holdings (ILLICIT CASH) Act (S.2563) seeks to close a crucial gap in federal anti-money laundering laws by preventing the incorporation of anonymous companies in the US. The measure is sponsored by members of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Doug Jones (D-AL), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Bob Menendez (D-NJ), John Kennedy (R-LA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Jerry Moran (R-KS).

The ILLICIT CASH Act follows on the heels of the Corporate Transparency Act of 2019 (H.R.2513), which passed out of the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services by a bipartisan vote of 43-16 in June of this year. While there are differences between the bills, both would require companies to disclose their true, beneficial owners at the time of incorporation and thereafter if ownership changes hands.

#107 jess on 10.03.19 at 3:41 pm

Furthermore, how do the sales of major American commercial real estate to criminal actors affect our communities? The buildings the Ukrainian oligarchs acquired in Cleveland fell into high levels of disrepair upon purchase, with one building characterized as “a gaping hole in the heart of a revitalizing downtown.”

The U.S. Treasury Department has developed a unique approach to fighting this problem called Geographic Target Orders (GTOs), which require title insurers to identify the true beneficial owner behind any legal entity acquiring residential real estate worth more than $300,000 in all-cash transactions in major cities and counties throughout the United States.

GTOs work. A report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the University of Miami found that, “After anonymity is no longer freely available to domestic and foreign investors, all-cash purchases by corporations fall by approximately 70 percent, indicating the share of anonymity-seeking investors using LLCs [limited liability companies] as ‘shell corporations.’” The study further found a precipitous “95 percent drop in how much cash shell companies and other corporate entities spent on homes” in Miami-Dade County after a GTO was issued for that metro region in March 2016.

Unfortunately, GTOs do not include commercial real estate transactions …’

https://gfintegrity.org/ukrainian-real-estate-play-in-cleveland-highlights-need-to-know-the-beneficial-owner/

#108 Ustabe on 10.03.19 at 3:46 pm

The last time I was enrolled in one of these a decade ago, the MERs ranged from 1.5-2.5%. That’s why I’m asking because those numbers are outrageous.

So what you are saying is my fund which has a MER of almost 2% should be dumped?

Despite it returning over 12% growth after fees since inception…13.3% so far this year?

The year I bough in was over 28%, no kidding. 2016 and 2018 were not so good, single digit negatives but the over all performance far exceeds the MER. Don’t let a hatred for fees prevent you from opportunity.

#109 n1tro on 10.03.19 at 3:50 pm

#92 SoggyShorts on 10.03.19 at 12:56 pm
#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am
Scheer and Kenney are planning to genocide. They are giving money to farmers to shoot Muslims:

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/10/01/jason-kenney-donated-100-to-a-defence-fund-for-an-alberta-farmowner-who-shot-a-tresspaser-he-calls-it-an-act-of-compassion-an-ethics-expert-calls-it-bad-judgment.html
*************************
Holy crap that might be the absolute worst click-bait lie I’ve seen posted here. You should be ashamed of yourself Amy

How do you go from that article to that post?

Some dude fired a warning shot at trespassers who were in the act of looting his vehicle on his farm and a ricochet hit one of them. Then the homeowner was being sued for 100K and Kenny pitched in $100 to help with legal defence. Also, the guy who was hit in the arm was named Watson which doesn’t sound super Muslim to me…
——————
Picture the same sort of derangement when it comes to stories about say…Trump, white privilege, climate change, etc and hopefully you will see how facts get demented in someone’s head from existing bias, hate, etc and the end result is what was posted.

#110 conan on 10.03.19 at 4:07 pm

I think Trump will be impeached by the end of January 2020. I also think the Conservatives are going to lose seats after the 2019 election. More than 10.

#111 espressobob on 10.03.19 at 4:22 pm

As a retail investor I don’t bother much with all the analysis or daily events going on. Boring. Just keep things simple and rarely do a trade unless it’s to rebalance when things get out of whack. This has proven most profitable over the years.

There are better things to do in life than worry about ones portfolio. Trust me.

My time is better spent with my golf coach and trainer than worrying about the bloody markets.

#112 SoggyShorts on 10.03.19 at 5:34 pm

#108 n1tro on 10.03.19 at 3:50 pm
#92 SoggyShorts on 10.03.19 at 12:56 pm
#84 Amy on 10.03.19 at 11:59 am

And that is why everyone should always google
“Thing I just read/learned debunked/myth”

Mostly it seems people only like to search for
“Proof of thing that I want to believe”

That’s why we have “climate deniers” vs “climate alarmists” and seemingly few “climate realists” The fringes are just so damn loud it’s hard to hear the truth which is (of course) somewhere in the middle.

#113 GBiddy on 10.03.19 at 5:38 pm

This should put the lead in a few pencils (from the PPC platform):

A People’s Party of Canada government will:

Eliminate all corporate subsidies and other inefficient government interventions (bailouts of failing companies, regional development grants, conditional loans and loan guarantees with an implicit subsidy, tax credits, etc.) that unfairly support some companies or business sectors. This will generate savings of between $5 billion and $10 billion a year.
Gradually reduce over the course of one mandate the corporate income tax rate from its current 15% down to 10%. When completed, this measure will make about $9.5 billion available to businesses, allowing them to increase salaries or invest in productivity improvements.*
Over the course of one mandate, gradually abolish the personal capital gains tax by decreasing the inclusion rate from the current 50% down to 0%. When completed, this measure will put about $7 billion per year back into the pockets of Canadians.*

*According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s Ready Reckoner website.

What else could any investor ask for?

Maybe it is time to declare “Vote PPC – Strong and free!”?

#114 SunShowers on 10.03.19 at 6:09 pm

#107 Ustabe on 10.03.19 at 3:46 pm

I wasn’t suggesting dumping the fund entirely, I was wondering if it was possible that a MER could be sufficiently high enough that it would offset the matching employer contribution, and you would be better off investing in the same fund with a fee-based adviser.

From what Garth is saying, MERs typically don’t reach those lofty hypothetical heights, and it’s always best to take the free money.

#115 Westcdn on 10.03.19 at 9:20 pm

I look and see a minority Federal government. That will cause nothing but pain for Alberta. I have a suggestion. Alberta Conservative voters stand down. Let us send a truckload of Liberals to Ottawa even they be trained seals (not that I think Con MP’s are better). We know who we are. Sides, we can punt them in a heartbeat if they are not worthy and still send a message that we mean business.

#116 Kool Aid on 10.03.19 at 9:32 pm

#82 Tony

I’ve always gone by Martin’s Zweig’s theory of strategic switching.

Kool Aid: Excellent, in this centrally planned world, the FED, ECB, BOE, BOJ & BOC impacts are of the first order, Marty’s advice is timeless.

Re: #1 Flop… on 10.02.19 at 4:26 pm

Grape seed extract and red wine together is far better than turmeric at preventing Alzheimer’s

Kool Aid: Fuji water, contains natural soluble silica.

Silicon-rich mineral waters help to remove aluminium from the body because this form of silicon immediately follows water molecules through the gut wall and into the bloodstream where it forms a complex with aluminium called an hydroxyaluminosilicate. This form of aluminium can be easily filtered from the blood by the kidney. Hence, soluble silicon-rich mineral waters increase the excretion of aluminium. Ask your doctor the will be able to confirm the relative measurable benefits.

#117 Carpet Baggers on 10.03.19 at 11:03 pm

One big reason for the added buy side volume in RE over the past few months is the increased danger people in Hong Kong are experiencing. They don’t see the foreign tax as an impediment because the alternative to cutting the NDP a fat cheque is spending the rest of their lives in a stifling gulag under the murderous regime aka The Communist Party. Think it can’t happen? Tell that to the millions of Uyighers China has imprisoned indefinitely. Mao murdered an estimated 80 million. Hong Kongs several million could vanish overnight. People in Hong Kong really have to consider that. So, instead of being treated as royal refugees Hong Kongets have to bribe the NDP for a ticket to safe harbour. It’s a good thing the HK people aren’t Jews, the NDP would refuse entry altogether.

Meanwhile, Trump gets China, sees through their skeezy world domination schemes and decouples the world economy.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/forceful-delisting-of-chinese-stocks-from-u-s-exchanges-could-cost-investors-billions-experts-say

Trudeau will do nothing for HK. Zieg Hiel.