‘Get me out’

There was a money show in the Big Smoke a few days ago. Suspicious DIY investors in hoodies wandered around booths full of hungry salesguys for stocks, weed, crypto, insurance, brokerages and funds. Same old story. Everybody wants to make out like a bandit. Nobody wants risk.

When it comes to investing, nothing changes. Ever. Fear and greed motivate. Of those, fear’s the strongest. Science has proved we gain less pleasure from a big win than we suffer in pain over a big hit. So fear of loss drives people to make decisions which are… nuts, actually. So many folks are willing to risk future security in order to escape short-term pain. Apparently humans have the attention span of gerbils and the endurance of moths.

What are the worries du jour? Trump. Boris. Brexit. Iran. Hong Kong. Recession. But it’s really volatility and the sense that just because markets are high they have to fall. As usual, we have a thin grasp of history and an overload of BNN.

So I work with some smart, steady people. Their job is to manage money in a disciplined, non-emotional, mathematical and goals-oriented way. They’re wicked boring. But when a client says they want an income of $100,000 in retirement in 13 years, my colleagues plot a path leading to that goal. Then they stick to it. Bumps and shudders happen. Assets swell and shrink. Markets gyrate. The news floods in. Adjustments are made. Portfolios tweaked. But never is their panic, rash action or the rush to an exit.

And that, in a nutshell, is the difference between a professional investor and the hoodies.

Here’s a small example – the words of my colleague Ross to a lady who, in a panic said, ‘I want off the rollercoaster. Take me to cash. A GIC. I can’t take it.’ She’s currently receiving investment income from her portfolio and will need to do so for decades. My pal clearly explained what the consequences of emotion would be.

Garth has stated numerous times in the blog that emotions should never drive financial decisions, which is precisely why you pay us to manage your assets.

*         Over the past 20 years, GICs have lost money after taxes and inflation, meaning you need to take on market risk to actually grow your wealth over time. In other words, the only guarantee from a GIC is that you’ll lose purchasing power.

(Source: Mackenzie Investments, Bloomberg. Click to enlarge)

*         Bear markets aren’t actually as scary as the media would suggest, as the average loss in a bear market is -27% and lasts about 14 months in duration, while the average gain in a bull market is 144% and last 54 months in duration (See chart 2). Staying invested over the long-term will allow you to reach your financial goals, while market timing will hurt you. Last year we hit bear market territory on the S&P/500 and your portfolio finished the year down only 3.7% after fees, therefore your portfolio is already designed to handle difficult periods in the capital markets. Finally, the last two bear markets were the worst bear markets over the past 60 years, so it’s unlikely that the next one will be as severe.
*         I realize there’s an abundance of negative sentiment in the news today, but if you look at the hard data things don’t look so bad. In the U.S. specifically, unemployment rates are hovering around 50 year lows, housing starts and new home sales massively beat to the upside in recent prints, and consumer confidence/spending remains elevated (70% of economic activity). At the same time, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, twice, into what is a robust U.S. economy. There has never been a global recession without the U.S. involved. In Europe things look a bit more bleak, however the ECB just cut interest rates and initiated another round of Quantitative Easing, meaning they injected a huge amount of stimulus into the European economy. China is cutting their lending rates as well, another form of stimulus.  The three largest economic centers in the world are now adding stimulus to promote growth (good for the stock market).

(Source: Mackenzie Investments, Bloomberg. Click to enlarge)

*         Keeping a long-term perspective is key. Below are 2 scenarios for your portfolio:

o   1) where you are earning 5.5% annualized (your return since inception), drawing $25,000 per year, with a 2% rate of inflation and
o   2) where you are earning 2% (GIC return), drawing $25,000 per year, with a 2% rate of inflation.
o   In scenario 1 your money will last 35 years, while in scenario 2 your money will last  21 years, a difference of 14 years in portfolio longevity!

So, what did she decide?

She bailed. Despite the increased odds of running out of income: “It all comes back to the rollercoaster ride.  Just not interested. Take that money out of the market and put us into cash.”

Over the almost-a-decade this pathetic blog has existed there’s been a debt ceiling crisis, an oil collapse crisis and a Trump crisis. Markets have suffered several 20%+ declines. In the midst of each people have reacted in the same way. When things go down they believe they’ll hit zero – just as folks buy houses during bubbles believing they’ll inflate forever.

In the real world markets rise over 70% of the time. Booms outlast busts. Economies swell more than they contract. Growth is the norm, recessions rare. Shocking events always fade into haze. Fear, it turns out, does not protect you. It costs.

 

157 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 09.26.19 at 4:18 pm

#124 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.26.19 at 1:47 pm
“How do you guys feel about voting for a federal leader that only speaks English?”

I respect every voter’s right to choose.

But I do question the seriousness and/or intelligence of a unilingual candidate. French isn’t that hard to learn. Quebec is 23% of House of Commons seats, and — because many ridings there change their allegiances — counts for even more in the electoral calculus.

//////////////////////

Hey Tann,

I guess partly what I was getting at is what to do with a Kevin O’Leary type of character?

I know at the the time he was still in the race, people on this blog stated that they would vote for him, even though he was struggling with the second language.

Hypothetically, if the United States gave Spanish an official language status, what do you think they would do?

I’m not so sure they would be so quick to rule out certain people because of not speaking the second language.

Also,since we are talking, after your post the their day, I decided to fake it until I make it.

Even though I am one of this blog’s lowest earners, I managed to find a Rolls Royce on Autotrader in my price range.

Now all I have to do is convince my Father-in-law to drive me around all the time so I can sit in the backseat.

I feel a movie coming out of it.

Driving Mr Flop…

M45BC

https://www.autotrader.ca/ico/rolls-royce/silver%20spirit/richmond/british%20columbia/19_11244261_/?showcpo=ShowCpo&ncse=no&orup=2_13_13&pc=V5W%203H3&sprx=100

#2 Chimingin on 09.26.19 at 4:19 pm

That picture made me laugh so hard I forgot to read the post! Thank you to the cutter of holes in the gate, whoever you are.

#3 Flop... on 09.26.19 at 4:20 pm

Hey Long Time Lurker, and by default, Smoking Man aka Nicotine Nutjob, you been watching the UFO show called Conact on Discovery Channel?

I’ve watched it the last two weeks as it follows on from another show I watch Expedition Unknown.

Anyway, I mainly seem to enjoy the nice scenery but the sighting in New Mexico on last nights show appeared to be convincing.

The cow mutilations in Montana and Brazil, I’m not that sure there’s any connection.

If they land in my backyard, I will offer them Hotdogs as a peace offering.

If they come after my ice-cream I will obliterate them…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qdeEnzteSrc

#4 jess on 09.26.19 at 4:27 pm

disgorgement penalties :

Rep. McAdams raises Kokesh decision, which has been touched on behind and asks Clayton about impact of decision which limited time period to five years for SEC to bring enforcement actions and recover funds. McAdams has a pending bill to increase time period to 14 years. Clayton wants to see a fix to Kokesh and sees the legislation as positive step to address the negative impact on SEC’s activities of the decision.
You should not reward someone for concealing a fraud for a long time,” Says Clayton.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/16pdf/16-529_i426.pdf
“In 2009, the Commission brought an enforcement action, alleging that petitioner Charles Kokesh violated various securities laws byconcealing the misappropriation of $34.9 million from four business-development companies from 1995 to 2009. The Commission soughtmonetary civil penalties, disgorgement, and an injunction barringKokesh from future violations. After a jury found that Kokesh’s ac-tions violated several securities laws, the District Court determined that §2462’s 5-year limitations period applied to the monetary civil penalties. With respect to the $34.9 million disgorgement judgment, however, the court concluded that §2462 did not apply because dis-gorgement is not a “penalty” within the meaning of the statute.

The unanimous Kokesh decision held that SEC disgorgement may not stretch as far back in time as supported by the evidence of misconduct.

Mr. Kokesh said the SEC should be able to collect only $5 million in disgorgement, the amount attributable to the five-year period before the agency filed its claims in 2009.The legal provision that establishes the five-year statute of limitations doesn’t explicitly mention disgorgement. It says it applies to “enforcement of any civil fine, penalty or forfeiture.”The Justice Department argued that disgorgement is different than those sanctions because it isn’t a punishment and instead is focused on ensuring a violator doesn’t profit from illegal conduct.

Writing for the Supreme Court, Justice Sonia Sotomayor said disgorgement “bears all the hallmarks of a penalty.” She noted that only some of the money collected by the SEC goes to the victims and that some of the funds end up with the Treasury.

“It is imposed as a consequence of violating a public law and it is intended to deter, not to compensate,” Sotomayor wrote in the 11-page ruling.

The case is Kokesh v. SEC, 16-529.
Months after Kokesh, the SEC estimated that it lost approximately $900 million in disgorgement in actions it had already filed. Kokesh also complicated investigations where the SEC learns of years-old misconduct due to the difficulty of marshaling sufficient investigative resources to charge violations quickly enough.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/liveblog-the-house-financial-services-committee-grills-the-sec-2019-09-24

#5 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 4:31 pm

@SoldOut re: #137 from yesterday’s post

“There certainly seems to be ample evidence in the steerage to support the arguments in this article…

https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers

Interesting article.

#6 dirtydebtor on 09.26.19 at 4:33 pm

With all due respect Garth, when clients decide to pull out and go all cash, Turner investments loses their 1% cut. for the average clients of yours, I imagine that amounts to Ryans monthly Porsche payment.

How do you & your team manage your respective personal funds? what are your balance of investments? do you gamble on individual stocks or speculative stuff? do you ever pull out cash from the markets and sit on it?

In other words, does everyone on the turner team practice what they preach?

A fee-based advisor sells nothing and it is immaterial if a client is fully invested in negotiable assets or sitting on cash. The issue is not revenues, but ensuring people achieve their goals and overcome misleading emotions. By the way, my practice does exactly what this blog preaches. No stocks, no mutual funds, no hedgies, no weird stuff. But we do provide free relationship counseling and occasional tummy rubs. – Garth

#7 NotLegalAdvice on 09.26.19 at 4:45 pm

Garth, I know you’ve mentioned in the past that detached homes in the GTA (905 included) will not drop 40% or 25% in prices (I recall a fancy graph showing the commute into Toronto). What would the drop look like? 5%? 10%? If prices are back to 2017 levels, surely a drop in prices (as one that occurred in 2018) will happen again?

#8 lurker on 09.26.19 at 4:51 pm

Something I’ve been wanting to ask:
When starting a portfolio in a TFSA with only $6k per year, what is the best way to achieve balance and diversification while not getting killed in transaction fees? Is it better to pick one or two ETFs to start and build around that in subsequent years, or stretch across enough ETFs to hit all major market sectors and regions?

#9 slam on 09.26.19 at 4:52 pm

“But when a client says they want an income of $100,000”

What’s a reasonable portfolio size to yield $100,000 income? 1.3m to 1.5m?

#10 tccontrarian on 09.26.19 at 4:53 pm

“…But we do provide free relationship counseling and occasional tummy rubs.” – Garth

—-

I could use one of those!

Funny that people will PAY to ride the rollercoaster here at the PNE – but the one provided by the markets for free is to be shunned. Go figure!

tcc

#11 Flop... on 09.26.19 at 5:00 pm

You want rollercoaster action?

I’ll give you rollercoaster action.

This post is for you Thomas Schmidt.

If interested you gotta always click on the link to get the full visualization, I could have probably trimmed it some more, but I post on an iPad because I have sausage fingers, so it doesn’t seem as long as on a phone.

I’m sure John C Riely will come after me again if I messed up…

M45BC

“Cannabis Stock Bubbles: The Higher They Rise the Greater They Fall.

Over the past few years, investors have been eyeing a new type of green — cannabis stocks. Even though only 33 U.S. states and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana to some degree and there is currently no federal law granting full legalization, American investors are still able to own shares in cannabis-related companies. As more U.S. states are eyeing full marijuana legalization, our new visualization tracks the rise and fall of cannabis stock prices over time.

Most of these major public cannabis companies are based in Canada, which officially legalized marijuana in 2018.

All of these stocks increased their share price since IPO, but they have all also decreased from their peak.

Of the ten major cannabis companies in the graph, only two (Harvest Health & Recreation and Acreage Holdings) have had a negative return for investors so far.
Prices come from Yahoo Finance. Each company in the graph above is represented by a differently colored line, with the company logo. The graph is also divided into three columns; the left column is the price from the first time publicly traded on a “major” stock (TSX, NSYE, Nasdaq; or OTC if not applicable); the middle column is the highest price each stock has reached, and the right column is the stock price as of September 13, 2019. All of these stocks increased their share price since IPO, but they have all also decreased from their peak.

The Largest Cannabis Companies & Their Current Share Price

1. Canopy Growth – Market Cap: $8.43B – Share Price: $27.45
2. Aurora Cannabis – Market Cap: $4.96B – Share Price: $5.94
3. GW Pharmaceuticals – Market Cap: $3.76B – Share Price: $141.01
4. Curaleaf Holdings – Market Cap: $3.43B – Share Price: $7.55
5. Cronos Group – Market Cap: $3.22B – Share Price: $11.54
6. Tilray – Market Cap: $2.66B – Share Price: $31.65
7. Aphria – Market Cap: $1.94B – Share Price: $6.72
8. HEXO – Market Cap: $1.35B – Share Price: $4.25
9. Harvest Health & Recreation – Market Cap: $1.04B – Share Price: $4.92
10. Acreage Holdings – Market Cap: $723M – Share Price: $8.39

Companies like Canopy Growth have performed particularly well since their debut. In addition, GW Pharmaceuticals has had a return of 1,484.38% and Aurora Cannabis has had a return of 188.28%. However, some analysts predict that marijuana’s “Big Four” stocks will likely lose money in 2020 due to factors such as aggressive expansion into international markets and issues on the supply side. Vaping-related illnesses are also killing the buzz for entrepreneurs and investors who have been riding high on the marijuana legalization boom. As the legal landscape evolves, so will the share prices and returns of cannabis stocks.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/cannabis-stock-prices

#12 jess on 09.26.19 at 5:21 pm

as Garth has said : your advis(e)r matters!

SEC Charges Las Vegas Investment Adviser with Fraud, Along with Registration and Other Violations

ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEEDING
File No. 3-19474

September 20, 2019 –

He was an airline baggage handler
OM Gosh you cannot make that up

Check out the name of his company
According to the SEC’s order, when Nevada regulators issued a cease and desist order in August 2017, Tamayo had more than 900 clients, with accounts worth more than $172 million, based in part on routine lies Tamayo told about the value of his personal retirement account and his assets under management. As also stated in the order, Tamayo failed to disclose the Nevada disciplinary action when he sought to register his new company, Bored at Work Retirement Services, LLC, as an investment adviser with the SEC.

https://www.sec.gov/enforce/ia-5358-s

#13 J. Canuck on 09.26.19 at 5:29 pm

#11 Mr. Flop

Good eye. I remember the tech implosion of the early part of this decade. The tech companies would always yield barrowloads of nice folding stuff. Then they didn’t.

#14 New Dad on 09.26.19 at 5:44 pm

from yesterdays post: “Open the correct RESP (a family plan)”

Can someone remind me again? Why is a resp family plan better than individual resp plans?

#15 Shawn Allen on 09.26.19 at 5:52 pm

Gains not as pleasurable.

Science has proved we gain less pleasure from a big win than we suffer in pain over a big hit.

******************************
Despite the reputed limited pleasure, I am still willing to accept any big wins that may come my way.

#16 Dave on 09.26.19 at 6:17 pm

Garth – when you next Real Estate update. That’s the only reason I come here!!!

#17 Flop... on 09.26.19 at 6:20 pm

#129 Remembrancer on 09.26.19 at 2:33 pm

#117 Flop… on 09.26.19 at 12:43 pm

“I agree though (easy to say as an Anglo), an otherwise highly qualified candidate should be considered as an electable operation would also have French language tutors and a strong Quebec lieutenant if they knew what they were doing…

Now here’s the truth test: what about a French-speaker with fair-to-middling English who was a top notch leadership candidate and both Canadian and Canadien. How would you feel about voting for that person assuming a supported platform?”

/////////////////

Hey Remy, sorry I didn’t include you in post number one, as I was already writing that out when you posted.

When I read your last paragraph my mind instantly went to Maxime Bernier.

I don’t know if it’s from my Aussie Rules career or what, but I have trouble understanding that guy.

If he had won the Conservative leadership race, yes, there is a chance I would have voted for him, even though we don’t vote for them directly.

I have never voted in a federal election, as I don’t see the point of lining up to cancel my wife’s NDP vote, and that’s who has owned the riding by a wide margin since the David Emerson saga.

California voted in Arnold and his English has been mocked for decades ,so I don’t think most people use it as the deciding factor, but it sure helps swing voters if they can understand what a person is talking about ( or in this election, what they are promising).

I know he probably felt ripped off, but maybe the smart play for Maxime might have been to wait to Scheer falls at the first hurdle and slide on in there, most likely without much of a contest.

Speaking of contests, my headline contest with the newspapers if the conservatives win has a new entry.

I think I went with Scheer Delight the other day, or if the author thinks it’s a bad things done the Liberals get another 4- Scheer Madness!

Here is my latest entry if the Conservatives win.

Scheers, Big ears…

M45BC

#18 TurnerNation on 09.26.19 at 6:23 pm

I see why the advisor/adviser’s attempt failed.
Waaay to much logic and fact in the reply.
The practice should hire Greta as Rentention Specialist.

#19 Irwin on 09.26.19 at 6:25 pm

You call this a “Trump crisis”?
Nonsense.
One day, hopefully not until at least 2024, there will be a “Crazio Lefty Crisis”.
If I’m lucky enough to see that one coming, I shall run for the hills sans equities.

The reference, obviously, was to Q4 of 2018. – Garth

#20 Alessio on 09.26.19 at 6:33 pm

Can you show same chart for stocks and bonds after inflation, taxes and fees? Thanks!

#21 mike from mtl on 09.26.19 at 7:03 pm

#17 Flop… on 09.26.19 at 6:20 pm
#129 Remembrancer on 09.26.19 at 2:33 pm

#117 Flop… on 09.26.19 at 12:43 pm

“I agree though (easy to say as an Anglo), an otherwise highly qualified candidate should be considered as an electable operation would also have French language tutors and a strong Quebec lieutenant if they knew what they were doing…

Now here’s the truth test: what about a French-speaker with fair-to-middling English who was a top notch leadership candidate and both Canadian and Canadien. How would you feel about voting for that person assuming a supported platform?”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

What about Chrétien? He handled a very real separation issue and said no to the Bush war of particular note.

#22 Damifino on 09.26.19 at 7:30 pm

#17 Flop…

… I don’t see the point of lining up to cancel my wife’s NDP vote, and that’s who has owned the riding by a wide margin since the David Emerson saga.
—————————————

I wouldn’t think twice about ‘cancelling’ my wife’s vote. As it turns out, we’re both independent adults of voting age. I don’t tell her how to vote and she returns the favor. We’ve cast ballots for different parties often, both provincially and federally.

However, I suspect she might go conservative this time. She’s tried very hard over the last term to be charitable about Justin Trudeau’s ponderous list of shortcomings.

She genuinely did like him, but has reached her limit. She says she’s fed up with ‘identity’ politics.

Unfortunately, that leaves few options on the table. If she votes for Scheer it won’t be with much enthusiasm.

#23 Linda on 09.26.19 at 7:31 pm

In the case of the lady wanting to bail, perhaps she is already old enough to expect that she won’t require income for more than 20 years. If the ‘fear factor’ bothers her to such an extent then perhaps getting off the roller coaster is in fact the right thing for her, even though it means her money will run out sooner.

While it is true that people are living longer, the expectation that most will live to age 90 is simply not supported by the stats. Planning for the future needs to be balanced with living for today.

#24 Bill Grable on 09.26.19 at 7:31 pm

Mr. Turner – can you explain why the FED in the Excited States is pumping $75 billion, per night, for the last four nights, into the REPO Market?

Everyone in Washington and on Wall Street, and at the Big Banks are trying to pivot away from that news.

What do you think this means?

#25 Wally Waffles on 09.26.19 at 7:33 pm

Would have met her on her level and replied, so you want to back to work! Wonderful, will move everything to a GIC for you pronto…

#26 Ronaldo on 09.26.19 at 7:33 pm

#8 lurker on 09.26.19 at 4:51 pm
Something I’ve been wanting to ask:
When starting a portfolio in a TFSA with only $6k per year, what is the best way to achieve balance and diversification while not getting killed in transaction fees? Is it better to pick one or two ETFs to start and build around that in subsequent years, or stretch across enough ETFs to hit all major market sectors and regions?
——————————————————————
XTR

#27 Nonplused on 09.26.19 at 7:41 pm

Go Home Greta

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7kKxbl-ILI

Unfortunately this guy is right. The proposals the left are advocating to stop climate change from happening in some distant date whether it is 12 or 20 or 100 years in the future is to end modern society now, and reduce our life styles and population to that which existed in the middle ages. Horse drawn carriages and hand tilled land and cities with no water or sewer and no medicine. No buses either. If that is where we are going, why would I want to go there one day sooner than I need to? I am sorry, I will go there only when there is no other option left.

That is the paradox of Greta, Al Gore, and all the greens. Their solution to climate change is to enact all of the worst outcomes of climate change on society now, years before it actually happens. Massive death, starvation, suffering, and no iPods or hot coffee. I’m sorry I just don’t care about the hippos that much. I’ll help save them, but not after you starve me to death and take away my coffee. I can’t really help save the hippos if I am dead. Or impoverished. Or impoverished and dying, with no coffee.

A better response is something like this:

https://www.scottadamssays.com/2019/09/23/a-message-for-children-about-climate-change/

Folks, as with Garth’s constant and unwavering admonition to not let FEAR run your investment decisions, you can’t let FEAR run your political decisions either. The climate may well warm 2 degrees before we run out of oil. The glaciers may well recede. But the rain will still fall and the plants will still grow and we have mastered damns and irrigation, so it hardly matters. Humans survived the ice age. We will survive a bit of global warming. We have much bigger things to worry about. Unfortunately the bigger things like insect die-offs due to indiscriminate pesticide use can’t be monetized, so they get no attention.

Folks, read the Scott Adams blog posted above. FEAR is the enemy of the future, in investing as Garth always says but also in all other things. As was said, rightly, I believe by Roosevelt, paraphrased, “There is nothing to fear but fear itself”. FEAR is the enemy. It haunts your brain. It grossly distorts your brain. But FEAR is all you need to fight. It is only FEAR that holds you back and shapes your world view.

And no don’t start talking about all the things we could but aren’t doing to slow climate change until you read the Scott Adams blog post I posted above. I am aware that there is more to be done. But reverting to terrorizing children with FEAR is not one of them. Teaching children FEAR is child abuse.

Sorry I kind of diverted from Garth’s post huge today. But it is time to stop this nonsense. Garth’s belief in the future of equities implies a belief in the future. It does not imply FEAR. And I agree. The world will be here tomorrow. We might not be, but the world will be.

#28 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.26.19 at 7:46 pm

“I guess partly what I was getting at is what to do with a Kevin O’Leary type of character?”

I’ve never been a political analyst, paid or otherwise. But the way I figure…

As a unilingual Anglophone national leader, you only have a chance if you’re a Conservative. You won’t get many votes in Quebec, so you need to carry lots of ridings in the Atlantic provinces, Ontario, Alberta, and BC. Alberta only votes Blue. QED.

But that means you need super charisma, and hopefully running against a slug, to clean up. I don’t think O’Leary could’ve cleaned up to the degree necessary in Ontario. I don’t know about elsewhere. It’s like shooting the moon in the card game Hearts — you need to collect ALL the other major regions, or you lose big.

In the US? It’s different there — no strategic voting. Everything’s Manichean us/them. But I’d guess that a Democrat, being these days the natural home of most Hispanics, wouldn’t need Spanish so much as a Republican. Look at Republicans claiming Spanish cred in recent national races… Habla? I married one! etc…

Mmm… Old West Coast classic cars. They don’t rust out there, and everyone’s so scared about repair costs and high gas prices that an old German potentate-mobile goes for less than a ten year old Corolla. All you need is a spot on the driveway, and maybe some basic wrenching ability to save on mechanic’s bills.

Too bad it isn’t like that with sailing yachts out there. To be fair, it’s the whole West coast, from Vancouver to San Diego. Much pricier than on the East coast.

#29 Frank on 09.26.19 at 7:46 pm

You only get hurt on a rollercoaster if you jump off

#30 yorkville renter on 09.26.19 at 7:47 pm

#14 – family RESP means you can split the funds among your kids in any % you wish… 50/50, 70/30, etc.

As far as “things never change” why woold the Fed drop already low rates if the economy is good?

#31 The jag on 09.26.19 at 7:53 pm

Hot here in Havana. Must be time for another cocktail.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 8:03 pm

@#137 SoldOut
“There certainly seems to be ample evidence in the steerage to support the arguments in this article…

https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers

+++++

Well.
As if the supposed inadequately appendaged climate deniers didnt have more to rant about…. that pseudo science article certainly fits the bill.

Perhaps it isnt misogynism that drives their vitriol.
Perhaps it boils down to….

Climate deniers are foaming at the mouth because an eloquent 16 year old can get her message in two minutes at the UN far better than they have over the past 10 years…..?
And their only rebuttal is to denigrate her gender and age.
I dont think they hate her gender.
They just have no ammo to refute her simple, straight forward, message…..

The planet is dying and we only have a few decades at best to avoid tipping into irreversible harm to humankind .

Everyone has been waiting for someone to stand up and call the useless talking heads known as our “Leaders” to stop bullshitting around the issue and DO something….

And
If a 16 year old is who we rally around because she’s(hopefully) too young to be corrupted by money…..unlike 99% of the “leaders” we grudgingly elect…..
So be it.

Let them keep climate denying…. all while they take personal shots at a 16 year old girl….
A 16 year old with undeniable facts.
It makes their petty arguements even more ridiculous.

#33 Ty Curry on 09.26.19 at 8:03 pm

Meh, doesn’t wash.

For every hard luck story about sky high house prices and record debtloads there’s 10 millennials getting hammered at a craft brewery at 10 bux a pint. No one cares about debt or savings because it’s about as relevant now as a CD player.

I’ve spent plenty of time in 3rd woild shitholes. There is a reason people slit each other’s throats to make it to a place like Canada. Houses are likely Canada’s most valuable resource.

Look where Japan’s been. That’s Canada’s economic future. Look at China now. That’s Canada’s technocratic future.

Garth’s investment advice is solid but houses are where Canadians really make the loot and will continue to do so.

#34 Flop... on 09.26.19 at 8:07 pm

#22 Damifino on 09.26.19 at 7:30 pm
#17 Flop…

… I don’t see the point of lining up to cancel my wife’s NDP vote, and that’s who has owned the riding by a wide margin since the David Emerson saga.
—————————————

“I wouldn’t think twice about ‘cancelling’ my wife’s vote. As it turns out, we’re both independent adults of voting age. I don’t tell her how to vote and she returns the favor. We’ve cast ballots for different parties often, both provincially and federally”

/////////////

Hey Damf, one point of clarification might be needed.

During the bulk of my marriage I wasn’t eligible to vote.

I got used to my wife just voting and to my knowledge she always votes NDP, I think partly because of her work Union, and I always thought I would never vote for those guys.

( I think now she is finding out no matter who is in charge provincially The School Board is still in disarray, but that is a different matter.)

I voted Orange in the last provincial election because I thought the B.C Liberals needed a time out to realize how corrupt they had become.

I still have to pull out my citizenship certificate occasionally and Stephen Harpers signature looking back at me always cracks me up.

I have credited this blog with making me more engaged citizen and even took the time to vote in the most recent civic election.

Federally, as I mentioned, our riding is so far left it wouldn’t matter if I tried to cancel out my wife’s vote just for a laugh or not.

As detailed the other day, my riding voted for a Liberal a while a go and he decided to cross the floor and become a Conservative, people were not happy and painted the riding Orange in rebellion.

Would have to see if the dates matched up to see when Harper got rid of Garth compared to my citizenship ceremony date.

If Harper voted Turner Out, Flop In, then that’s a sad day for Canada…

M45BC

#35 SoggyShorts on 09.26.19 at 8:08 pm

#8 lurker on 09.26.19 at 4:51 pm

Something I’ve been wanting to ask:
When starting a portfolio in a TFSA with only $6k per year, what is the best way to achieve balance and diversification while not getting killed in transaction fees? Is it better to pick one or two ETFs to start and build around that in subsequent years, or stretch across enough ETFs to hit all major market sectors and regions?

**********
Just get one of the 3 Vanguard “all in one” ETFs until you have at least 100K invested- then talk to an advisor.
VGRO if you are over 40 years old
VEQT if you are under 40

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/about-our-asset-allocation-etfs.htm

#36 Sandy Simpson on 09.26.19 at 8:19 pm

So someone making $45,000 a year working full time in a restaurant starting to save $800 a month can have $2 million by when?

#37 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 09.26.19 at 8:31 pm

#14 New Dad on 09.26.19 at 5:44 pm
from yesterdays post: “Open the correct RESP (a family plan)”

Can someone remind me again? Why is a resp family plan better than individual resp plans?

——————————————-

See the following post from April 2019:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/04/21/baby-bucks/

#38 Tony on 09.26.19 at 8:33 pm

Re: #8 lurker on 09.26.19 at 4:51 pm

Everything hinges on Trump winning the 2020 election. No other news will really matter.

#39 Yuus bin Haad on 09.26.19 at 8:37 pm

Thanks roller coaster lady – I just bought some of your shares

#40 Sold Out on 09.26.19 at 8:44 pm

@32 CEF

Perhaps this meets your definition of ‘scholarly’.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0305829818775817

#41 SoggyShorts on 09.26.19 at 8:48 pm

#36 Sandy Simpson on 09.26.19 at 8:19 pm

So someone making $45,000 a year working full time in a restaurant starting to save $800 a month can have $2 million by when?

*************************
2059 give or take a few months

#42 Gravy Train on 09.26.19 at 9:12 pm

#36 Sandy Simpson on 09.26.19 at 8:19 pm
“So someone making $45,000 a year working full time in a restaurant starting to save $800 a month can have $2 million by when?”

If their ROI is 6%, 43.5 years. If their ROI is 8%, 36 years. :)

#43 Damifino on 09.26.19 at 9:13 pm

#34 Flop…

Point taken. I didn’t vote NDP in the last BC election but I can certainly see why someone might. I voted for Christy Clark and her gang of questionables because I couldn’t, on general principle, vote for the dippers or the nutbar greens.

But I must say I wasn’t all that disappointed John Horgan got in. Not such a bad guy. Misguided, for sure, but a reasonable dude. Sort of, some of the time. Very wrong about the pipeline, though. And some of those taxes…. Oh well…

#44 Long-Time Lurker on 09.26.19 at 9:16 pm

#3 Flop… on 09.26.19 at 4:20 pm
Hey Long Time Lurker, and by default, Smoking Man aka Nicotine Nutjob, you been watching the UFO show called Conact on Discovery Channel?….

>Where’s my nickname: Loopy Lurker? No, there’s more interesting stuff on the internet. I try to put up science-based and “official” UFO tidbits up to give the general public a mild freak-out.

The US Navy has finally confirmed that mysterious videos showing pilots spotting UFOs are genuine after years of speculation

Sinéad Baker

The US Navy has confirmed videos showing pilots confused by two mysterious flying objects over the US contained what it considers to be UFOs, after years of speculation since their release.

Joseph Gradisher, the Navy’s spokesman for the deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare, confirmed that the Navy considered the objects in the videos to be unidentified.

“The Navy designates the objects contained in these videos as unidentified aerial phenomena,” he said in a statement to The Black Vault, a civilian-run archive of government documents….

https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-confirms-mysterious-videos-pilots-show-ufos-uaps-2019-9

#45 n1tro on 09.26.19 at 9:20 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 8:03 pm
@#137 SoldOut

Climate deniers are foaming at the mouth because an eloquent 16 year old can get her message in two minutes at the UN far better than they have over the past 10 years…..?
And their only rebuttal is to denigrate her gender and age.
I dont think they hate her gender.
They just have no ammo to refute her simple, straight forward, message…..

The planet is dying and we only have a few decades at best to avoid tipping into irreversible harm to humankind .
—————
What the heck are you talking about?? The majority of countries signed the Paris Accord. Carbon taxes are being collected and dumped into a bottomless pit ever since. What did Greta actually say? Not enough stuff is being done and something about her future being robbed all while making that face of hers. Was there any actual plans to do anything more than what is being done currently?? No.

So in the end, you got a brainwashed girl pointing out problems without bringing any viable solutions. I hear they want to fund free abortions for all women in the 3rd world. Go ahead and rally around that. When Greta is 30 and nothing has changed other than more carbon taxes have been collected, she can keep making that face of hers.

#46 Greg on 09.26.19 at 9:23 pm

Worries du hour. You forgot environmental crisis. Maybe that doesn’t affect markets. No real consequences, like a shortage of oil. Bloated funds can always clean up after disasters. Markets romp. But I think of the human fear/greed factors you mention and what that will look like if the environmental kaka really hits the fan.

#47 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:26 pm

@NonPlussed #27

” The world will be here tomorrow. We might not be, but the world will be.”

If ‘world’ means planet earth, and ‘we’ means humankind, then Greta Thunberg agrees with you.

#48 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.26.19 at 9:27 pm

#32 elevatorflatulence:

We should always, always take the emotional rantings of a 16 year old girl seriously. All that life experience counts for something.

#49 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:31 pm

@crowdedelevatorfartz #32

” And their only rebuttal is to denigrate her gender and age.”

Don’t forget denigrating her mental health. That tactic can be useful for discrediting a perceived opponent.

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.26.19 at 9:32 pm

#40 Sold Out on 09.26.19 at 8:44 pm sez:
“@32 CEF

Perhaps this meets your definition of ‘scholarly’.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0305829818775817
————————————————–
WOW. Someone took their Gender Studies class a bit too seriously.

I gotta go “drill for more oil” yaknowwhatI’m sayin’….

#51 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:32 pm

@Bytor, focus on the message, not the messenger. The issue is that important.

#52 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.26.19 at 9:36 pm

DELETED

#53 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:42 pm

@n1tro re: ” When Greta is 30 and nothing has changed other than more carbon taxes have been collected, she can keep making that face of hers.”

Words escape me.

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.26.19 at 9:49 pm

#27 Nonplused on 09.26.19 at 7:41 pm

I agree. That Scott Adams’ blog is great, thanks for directing me over there. I will be reading it to my kids when they start asking about climate change, and I sent it to friends with kids.

#55 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.26.19 at 10:02 pm

Isn’t getting off the roller coaster the whole point?

I mean, hey, it’s easy to say the average bear market shaves off 27%. But that’s not how investors live through them. You keep saving and investing every month, and then your first bear hits, and you’re down maybe $25,000 at the bottom. But you keep at it, because you’re young, employable, and it’s a LONG time until you need the money. Time goes by and you keep putting away money every month. The next bear hits, and you find yourself down $250,000. Not that you did anything wrong, just a random bear market applied to your bigger portfolio. But you knuckle through it, and you keep saving. Now it’s been ten years since the last big bear, and your advisor is basically saying hey maybe steel yourself for a $2mm drop in your portfolio, but it probably won’t last long and it’ll probably bounce back. Well, break out the scopolamine! Can I afford the bigger house? The cottage? The kids’ education? The cruise? Cauliflower?

It seems to me that the goal is to either amass enough that you can step off the roller coaster (hopefully near the top, but definitely NOT near the bottom, as if we’re good at telling), or to amass EVEN MORE, such that you can ride the roller coaster with equanimity. Both of these are really hard. I wish I could think about my portfolio’s value in percentages or logs. I think almost nobody can.

#56 conan on 09.26.19 at 10:02 pm

Greta: She needs no ideas of her own, or direction. For whatever reason, people gravitate to her message.
That’s all she needs.

Many Politicians are like this. If you could bottle it , you would be rich.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 10:02 pm

@#34SoldOut
“Perhaps this meets your definition of ‘scholarly’.”
====

” the concept of petro-masculinity, which appreciates the historic role of fossil fuel systems in buttressing white patriarchal rule….”
+++++

Yawn.
Aint buying the university psych BS
Careful, your misandrist roots are showing….

Back in the 1980’s I used to answer the same “misogynist” arguements posted by Dr. Helen Caldicott……

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Caldicott

…..about Cold War male leadership’s infatuation with the construction of “bigger”, “larger” nuclear bombs due to their lack of penile size…..

My comment to the female protesters that were convinced that Dr Caldicott was a genius was,

” Statistically speaking, 30% of the men involved in the anti nuke protests have below average penises ….they arent there because of their penis…they’re worried about the future of the planet.”

As I said before.
Most of the climate denier knuckle draggers couldnt care less that Greta is female….they dont care.
They just use that(and her age) as a target to belittle her.
And if you focus on their “message”…..they win.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 10:10 pm

@#48 Bytor the rabid dog
“We should always, always take the emotional rantings of a 16 year old girl seriously. All that life experience counts for something.”
++++

I didnt think she was “ranting” at all.
She was angry but factual.
I’ve found some of the most brutally honest opinions erupt from kids that dont have an off switch….
So be it.

AND I liked that she didnt use the usual pablum-speak that infests every level of public Orwellian-pablum speak.

God forbid we “offend” someone!
God forbid we call these “leaders” monsters for selling their souls to the almighty buck.

I for one enjoyed her “rant”.
It was very refreshing and judging by her 6 MILLION (and climbing)followers on twitter……..she’s goin places.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 10:13 pm

@#56 Conan
“If you could bottle it , you would be rich.”
++++

It’s called honesty.
During a crisis.
It’s gold.

#60 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.26.19 at 10:13 pm

#51 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:32 pm sez:
@Bytor, focus on the message, not the messenger. The issue is that important.
———————————————–
What message would that be, that we’re doooomed?

We’re not.

I feel bad for this child. All the anxiety that her parents and other Disciples of the Religion of Climate Change have caused her. Should be grounds for child abuse charges.

#61 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 10:18 pm

@n1tro, regarding what you describe as “that face of hers”, people with Asperger’s syndrome can have intense facial expressions which can appear hateful to those unfamiliar with the syndrome. Please try not to use this attribute of a developmental disorder as a tool to drag down Greta Thunberg’s heartfelt, science-backed message. It’s not about her.

#62 JMS on 09.26.19 at 10:21 pm

lurker on 09.26.19 at 4:51 pm
Something I’ve been wanting to ask:
When starting a portfolio in a TFSA with only $6k per year….
————————————-
Just use Questrade! All Canadian listed ETFs are free to buy, and there’s a measly $5 fee to sell. Thus you can easily set up a 10 ETF portfolio for nothing, and then ‘rebalance’ by adding to it and buying those that are down to bring you back to your target ratios. Easy peasy… I’ve been doing it for about six years and it works well. Search this site for decent ideas on what your weightings should be, and pick ETFs that are large and have lots of daily volume.

#63 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 10:23 pm

@Conan #56 ” Greta: She needs no ideas of her own, or direction. For whatever reason, people gravitate to her message.”

Perhaps the reason is she speaks the truth. For many, this resonates. For others, the cognitive dissonance is too powerful.

#64 Blackdog on 09.26.19 at 10:35 pm

@Bytor, I suggest you do some research into the carbon cycle and feedback loops for starters.

#65 akashic record on 09.26.19 at 10:36 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz

This was funny :)

After delivering the probably most hate-filled speech ever on record in the UN, five governments were served with legal action against them, by the same fearmongering teenager, “(hopefully) too young to be corrupted by money…”

I can’t wait when her handlers decide to sue the Kyoto Accord signatory countries, all 192.

#66 Sail Away on 09.26.19 at 10:39 pm

#51 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 9:32 pm

@Bytor, focus on the message, not the messenger. The issue is that important.

————————————–

That’s your opinion, Blackdog, don’t forget that. Extremism is never beneficial. Even if (maybe especially because) climate panic is the flavour of the day, it pays to tread carefully.

Strident teens I can accept as their version of the world is truncated. Strident adults are ridiculous.

#67 Ustabe on 09.26.19 at 10:46 pm

I feel bad for this child. All the anxiety that her parents and other Disciples of the Religion of Climate Change have caused her. Should be grounds for child abuse charges.

You know what really should be grounds for child abuse charges?

People who separate children from parents, ship them hundreds of miles away and place them inside chain link fencing, in tents, under abandoned freeway over passes.

#68 Sold Out on 09.26.19 at 10:59 pm

People who believe that climate change is a thing have science on their side..

Climate change deniers have “Yeah, but her face”, “Climate Barbie”, “Mentally ill”, etc, etc..

I can’t imagine why we believers haven’t been swayed by these well-crafted, deeply nuanced arguments.

#69 alternate economist on 09.26.19 at 11:02 pm

#24 Bill Grable on 09.26.19 at 7:31 pm

Mr. Turner – can you explain why the FED in the Excited States is pumping $75 billion, per night, for the last four nights, into the REPO Market?
What do you think this means?
==========================
The banks loaned so much money that they don’t have enough cash anymore to loan overnight to each other.
It’s because everybody want a cheap loan from the bank because interest rates are just too low.

Seriously, why did the FED just lower interest rates 2 times when the stock market is at an all-time high and unemployment is at a 50-year low? Normally they would raise rates in this situation. Same thing in Canada. Super low unemployment and record stock market.

What is the remedy they suggest in MSM? They suggest to print even more money: more quantitative easing. I think that MSM and the powers that be want big inflation. They want to keep inflating the debt bubble.

By the way it seems to me it’s always the economist David Rosenberg they publish in the headlines of Financial Post and G&M. He wants the interest rates to go down. Can’t they publish various economists with some other point of view instead of always Rosenberg?

#70 akashic record on 09.26.19 at 11:13 pm

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.26.19 at 10:10 pm

It was very refreshing and judging by her 6 MILLION (and climbing)followers on twitter……..she’s goin places.

@KimKardashian has 61.9 MILLION twitter followers and she is not in the top 10:

Barack Obama (108.7m followers)
Katy Perry (108m followers)
Justin Bieber (106.7m followers)
Rihanna (93.5m followers)
Taylor Swift (84.8m followers)
Cristiano Ronaldo (80.1m followers)
Lady Gaga (79.4m followers)
Ellen DeGeneres (78.6m followers)
YouTube (71.8m followers)
Ariana Grande (65.3m followers)

The places (hu)mankind going following them…

#71 Dumb Wealth on 09.26.19 at 11:39 pm

There is always a number of great reasons not to invest. Yet, the market has grown over the long run.

Of course, markets have had the tailwind of secular disinflation for over 30 years.

Then again, don’t try to time the markets… https://dumbwealth.com/20-wealth-tips-from-real-financial-professionals/

#72 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.26.19 at 11:46 pm

DELETED

#73 Gulf Breeze on 09.27.19 at 12:04 am

Go Greta!

Nearly all the climate change denial comes from hicks on YouTube who have an ‘opinion’. Or, they take the solar effect and distort the hell out of it, so it looks like it is driving climate change.

Then of course you have ‘real scientists’ on YouTube who are experts in another field completely. The most popular one currently is a geologist who has worked closely with the petroleum industry. We all know that geologists are the real experts when it comes to climate, not climate scientists. And yes, maybe meteorologists should be what? Veterinarians? And of course, the geologist wouldn’t have any conflicted interests, correct?

I have friends who send me these brain dead videos and I want to scream. These are friends who don’t have kids, therefore no skin in the game.

Like Greta, get angry. If you need to, get furious. Why should a 16 year old have to carry the weight of this emergency on her small shoulders?

#74 Fortune500 on 09.27.19 at 12:05 am

This analysis completely ignores the fact that we re-inflated the markets last time with the most stimulus (extremely low interest rates for a decade, quantitative easing) and next time we will have none of those tools.
Why on earth does your explanation to the client not take this into consideration?

#75 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:11 am

#140 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:10 am

#46 MF on 09.25.19 at 8:53 pm

34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.25.19 at 7:28 pm

-Lol good. I’m not surprised.

We actually agree on a lot.

I think you view everyone from Ontario, Toronto specifically, as one person with one view. I’ll keep reminding you that that is complete nonsense though :)

MF
****************

It is true…they are agreeing in principle. The apocalypse must be near.

#76 Nonplused on 09.27.19 at 12:25 am

#63 BlackDog

She speaks no truth. She isn’t old enough or educated enough to know what he “truth” might be. She speaks only what her handlers have told her to speak.

This is why you don’t get to vote until you are 18. Even at 18 you don’t know what the “truth” is but hopefully you will only get to vote once or twice before you figure it out.

What Greta’s handlers want to do is destroy the world now at our own hands rather than wait to see what happens. Bad choice. What’s happened to Greta at the hand of her handlers is just pure child abuse.

Don’t FEAR the future. It’s always gotten better. Wars, hurricanes, famines, moves by the Fed, and Justin Bebier. The future has always gotten better. Don’t FEAR it.

#77 akashic record on 09.27.19 at 12:29 am

This February, Canadian investigative journalist, Cory Morningstar, with strong connections to the environmental movement, wrote an in-depth research, paraphrasing the famous work of Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky – Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media.

The Manufacturing of Greta Thunberg—for Consent: The Political Economy of the Non-Profit Industrial Complex provides extensive background that puts in context how the Swedish teenager got to the front stage of politics.

http://www.theartofannihilation.com/the-manufacturing-of-greta-thunberg-for-consent-the-political-economy-of-the-non-profit-industrial-complex/

#78 Mike on 09.27.19 at 12:30 am

#24 Bill Grable – The Fed is injecting liquidity because USD outside of the US are being hoarded. This is drying up liquidity and is the first sign of a rush into both the USD and US markets. It’s why I hold 70% US funds/cash

#79 Smoking Man on 09.27.19 at 12:32 am

How do you become a risk taker.

First you need a female gym teach who sports a Crue cut.

Tells you that you will amount to nothing because you though home economics class for girls was a good idea. Said if they can cook and taker care of the house they can easily find a stupid man that will adore her and take care of her the rest of her life..

Man she was pissed.

Grade 12, my guidance counselor said you will be a garbage man.. she too had a crue cut hair doo..

Moral of the story. Never trust a girl that has short hair, and does not like little boys.

Find your sole mate young, and never cheat. Your dead realtives are watching from heaven.

Follow this boys and you and your wife will have a great life and money will fall from the sky..

Girls am I right… ?

Liberalism is mental disorder…escape if you can..

#80 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:46 am

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/09/25/miami-real-estate-collapse/

Interesting back and forth opinion of what is currently happening to the high end market in Miami.

#81 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:56 am

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/breaking-news/albertas-auto-insurance-crisis-and-the-simple-fixes-needed-176468.aspx

Similar article in Ontario last week.

#82 Smoking man on 09.27.19 at 1:06 am

Sky Pilots , risk takers..lefty looms come for me, I love pain..
Born to be alive .

https://youtu.be/j1XO2blhmYM

#83 Not So New guy on 09.27.19 at 1:07 am

I think the reason most people fail is not about math but about conscience.

With so many people suffering and starving in the world today, it is hard for wealthy North Americans to fly straight unless they have so much money that it is practically impossible to fail.

I wonder what the portfolio returns are of those who are very charitable

#84 mousey on 09.27.19 at 1:08 am

Re: Going to Cash/GIC, I get it. The volatility is just not for everybody. Going to GIC at 3% (well there was at least one of these left on the market until last week) for investments sheltered in a TFSA or RRSP is tax neutral and like getting 4% and paying a 1% fee to an advisor. If that is what she needs to sleep at night, then I can’t say that is a crazy decision. 3% tax neutral growth for a few years to steady one’s nerves may be the middle ground for a lot of people who can’t afford to ride the dips, both mentally and monetarily. My balanced and diversified portfolio was down something like 4% last year. Bit of a stomach churner, but my time line is still in my favour, but for others, maybe not so much. The portfolio has done well, around 9% this year, but if you back out the 4% loss, then 2018 is a zero gain and 2019 so far is 5%, which is better than 3%, but some crazy days.

#85 Richard Gibbons on 09.27.19 at 2:07 am

These arguments against Greta make me think of Easter Island. There, in the 16th Century, an Easter Island native cut down the last tree. Without trees, soil eroded making it hard to grow anything. What’s more, without wood, they couldn’t build canoes to fish. Mass starvation and wars followed, with eventually people turning to cannibalism.

I always wondered what they were thinking as they cut down the last tree–literally what was going through that guy’s head.

Was it “trees aren’t that important. It doesn’t matter if I kill the last one”? Or maybe “the last tree is super valuable. If I cut it down, I’ll be rich”. Or perhaps something like, “everyone else cut down the other trees, so it’s only fair that I cut down this one.”

But now, thanks to Nonplused, I think I probably have the answer. They were probably thinking, “People don’t eat trees, so there’s no reason to be concerned about cutting down the last tree. Fear is the real enemy.” Plus a bit of “I’d rather have a coffee now–sorry, tree now– and face starvation later, than have everyone on the island work together for a few days this week to replant the forest.”

Thanks, Nonplused. I’ve struggled for years to understand how people could make such an obviously terrible decision when the preponderance of evidence indicates a horrible outcome is likely. But your reasoning has really helped clear it up for me.

#86 Captain Uppa on 09.27.19 at 6:50 am

The woman in your post sounds exactly like my co-workers. All of them are “experts” and see the big recession coming, thus they are all going full cash and will start buying when THEY feel the floor has hit.

This type of investing must be exhausting. I like paying money nerds a minimal fee (0.5-1%) to manage my portfolio.

Set it and forget it.

#87 Harper King on 09.27.19 at 6:52 am

#9 Slam….Garth gave that to you @ 5% the $100,000 is generated out of $2,000,000, easy. Throw out bonds and replace with dividend growth and you’ll never touch the principal if you don’t want to. However, you’ve got a problem, that growth is going to grow, you’re not paying taxes ats income and you pile is going to grow, and compound, Rule of 72 and all that.

#88 Captain Uppa on 09.27.19 at 7:00 am

Hey Garth, my wife and I have solid DBs. Besides neglecting RRSPs and focusing on TFSAs as you posted the other day, what other things besides TFSA can one look to when having DBs?

As in, can I buy cool stuff?!

#89 n1tro on 09.27.19 at 7:02 am

#61 BlackDog on 09.26.19 at 10:18 pm
@n1tro, regarding what you describe as “that face of hers”, people with Asperger’s syndrome can have intense facial expressions which can appear hateful to those unfamiliar with the syndrome. Please try not to use this attribute of a developmental disorder as a tool to drag down Greta Thunberg’s heartfelt, science-backed message. It’s not about her.
———-
I didn’t know Greta had Aspergers or any kind of ailment. Regardless, heartfelt and science backed do not mix. Her message was what again? There is a crisis that needs to be addressed, OK….. Is that not what is being done when the countries of the world signed the Paris Climate Accord?? Greta goes on to criticize specific countries leaving out China and India..Why?…I thought she is the epitomy of honesty?.. Are we not all in this together??

Like I said, pointing out problems without bringing viable solutions does nothing more than add noise to the subject. It happens a lot in the office environment from my experience with clueless managers that want to look like they are contributing to a conversation.

People should stop conflating that anyone who questions what amounts to a person yelling in the street that the sky as falling as a denier. At least the “denier” is questioning things before accepting the message with what seems to be “you are a science denier if you don’t believe” as the majority of the answers.

As for the Easter island example. The natives cut down the last tree not because they didn’t think it was important to the environment but rather because they didn’t know. They were cutting all the trees down to use them as transportation for the huge stone heads they frequently made to appease whatever God they were worshipping.

#90 Justin S on 09.27.19 at 7:22 am

Scenario 1: Self-manage investments, sticking strictly to blue chip dividend paying equities (4-5% +). Enbridge, the banks, Brookfield groups, etc. The plan would be to never sell anything (until retirement) – simply hold and enjoy the dividend income. Add equities as funds become available. No investment fees as self-managed.

Scenario 2: Handing money over to a firm (such as Garth’s), and paying them to manage the funds. Same plan to never sell – just add as funds become available. Understanding there would be some rate of return each year (based on gains/losses and investment income), less the investment fee paid to the firm.

Would Scenario 1 provide a better net return (4-5%+ based on div yield) than Scenario 2? I suppose Scenario 2 depends on performance of the investment team, but is Scenario 1 not the more safe/stable choice over the long-term (i.e. not a roller coaster ride) in that it provides consistent return each year based on rock-solid dividend payments?

For reference I’m a cheap accountant advancing in my career, finally accumulating capital to invest. As stated, I’m cheap and would rather not pay someone to manage my money.

Rookie mistake: looking at performance only. Solid tax advice, a long-term financial strategy and helping guide a person through real estate, insurance, retirement planning and how to deal with spouses, parents, siblings and failing-to-launch kids is all part of what an advisor should do for you. Financial success involves more than money. – Garth

#91 BobC on 09.27.19 at 7:46 am

Seems like we’ve always been plagued by weak minded people that want to believe the worst. Perhaps it’s because they feel a false sense of intellectual superiority? Whatever the reason I wish it would stop so important issues would be dealt with.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/dozens-of-failed-climate-predictions-stretch-80-years-back_3096733.html

#92 Old guy advice to Justin S on 09.27.19 at 7:58 am

#90 Justin S
Garth gave you the perfect answer. You should print it and tape it to your bathroom mirror so you can read it each morning.

#93 Stan Brooks on 09.27.19 at 8:09 am

Exploring new frontiers in the housing idiocy/form of certifiable mental illness.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/it-takes-52-years-to-save-up-for-a-home-in-vancouver-164707878.html

#94 Justin S on 09.27.19 at 8:26 am

Thanks for the response Garth. Appreciate it.

Let’s say I’m confident I can deal with all that other stuff. I have the tax aspect covered, my wife and I have sufficient retirement pensions built up elsewhere, we own multiple properties in Toronto, etc.

This is really just some additional cash I’m earning each month that isn’t needed elsewhere. I don’t foresee needing it at any point ever, but do want to invest it long term and earn the best possible return I can. So performance really is the driving factor here.

#95 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 8:29 am

#142 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:17 am
#91 IHCTD9 on 09.26.19 at 9:10 am

#72 DON on 09.26.19 at 12:39 am

…and when I was 16 I knew a helluva lot.
___

I got ya beat there – when I was 16, I knew EVERYTHING.
******************

Gave me a good chuckle. Wouldn’t expect anything less. Now if you could spare some time and help me diagnose a crank no start on my 95 gmc sierra.
___

If it’s got fuel – first thing I’d look at would be the CPS.

#96 Dups on 09.27.19 at 8:50 am

Is the (Bull-Bear) chart, a logarithmic chart or a linear chart? That would make a huge difference on the slope…

#97 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 8:55 am

#22 Damifino on 09.26.19 at 7:30 pm

I wouldn’t think twice about ‘cancelling’ my wife’s vote. As it turns out, we’re both independent adults of voting age. I don’t tell her how to vote and she returns the favor. We’ve cast ballots for different parties often, both provincially and federally.

However, I suspect she might go conservative this time. She’s tried very hard over the last term to be charitable about Justin Trudeau’s ponderous list of shortcomings.

She genuinely did like him, but has reached her limit. She says she’s fed up with ‘identity’ politics.

Unfortunately, that leaves few options on the table. If she votes for Scheer it won’t be with much enthusiasm.
____

Welcome to the club. When Ms. IH isn’t voting for the NDP, it’s because the Cons might win, and she’s in strategic ABC mode. Together, we’ve mostly cancelled each other out over the years.

She also likes T2 but can’t take anymore after this blackface stuff. Jag evidently isn’t filling her heart with joy either. She would rather get hit by a truck than vote Conservative, so her vote will be a throw way this year.

If the Libs had booted creepy weirdo T2 they would have had her vote 100% simply because the Libs/Cons are running neck and neck.

#98 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 9:10 am

…What are the worries du jour? Trump. Boris. Brexit. Iran. Hong Kong. Recession. But it’s really volatility and the sense that just because markets are high they have to fall. As usual, we have a thin grasp of history and an overload of BNN….
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually, none of those items cause me any real (financial) concern. It makes the investment road bumpy, but that is life.

What does concern me are the stewards of the global financial system – central banks, profligate governments, global orgs, and fat-cat bankers – and the horrible job they have done over the last 2 decades. Anyone who thinks they “fixed everything” after the GFC has their head in the sand…

#99 dharma bum on 09.27.19 at 9:17 am

#85 Richard Gibbons

I’ve struggled for years to understand how people could make such an obviously terrible decision when the preponderance of evidence indicates a horrible outcome is likely.
——————————————————————–

The “preponderance of evidence”, as you phrase it, is questionable. Upon the cross examination of its presenters, there would be sufficient reasonable doubt generated such that a “not guilty” verdict would necessarily ensue.

The whole thing is merely an academic debate that will continue to play out amongst paranoid humans for multitudes of generations to come.

And so it goes.

#100 TurnerNation on 09.27.19 at 9:19 am

Today is climate strike day! As a non-precocious 40-something let scowl and issue my ‘demands’ to Boomers.
Boomers will have ruined my retirement years! The only retirement I had :-(

– I demand this weblog declare a Climate Emergency in the comments section.
– Cease all recreational boating activities at one. No emissions controls on those engines and it damages marine life. Carbon emission!!
– Cease all recreational motorcycle activities at once. No emissions controls on those engines and it the noise scares wildlife upsetting the eco system. Carbon emission!!
– No longer harbour non-essential house pets. Their food production requirements hurts the environment. Everyone knows, Dog phartz cause global warming!!

Act now Boomers for my retirement. You have one change to not screw it up.

#101 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.27.19 at 9:26 am

“Is the (Bull-Bear) chart, a logarithmic chart or a linear chart?”

Linear, and unadjusted for inflation. Any chart that makes the 1970s seem like an OK time to be in stocks is ahh… optimistic? Adjusted by the US government’s Consumer Price Index, the S&P 500 lost 47% from 1970 to 1980. Dividends would have eased the sting, but not by much.

#102 TurnerNation on 09.27.19 at 9:27 am

On a serious note doomers, let’s follow the smart money.
– Google Smart Cities being built at the water’s edge in Toronto. Via their Sidewalk labs project.

– Cheap labour and great growing in S. America for Weed producers. We have so much food production we built greenhouses and fields for Weed.

*My point , technology is the solution

https://www.investors.com/news/marijuana-stocks-eye-south-america-cannabis-production/

“North American marijuana companies are already putting down roots in countries like Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. Sourcing that product from South America could fatten profit margins and reorder the global supply chain.

“In fact, we don’t believe the Northern Hemisphere will be leading the cannabis cultivation industry in half a decade or less,” Joseph Lusardi, CEO of U.S. cannabis producer Curaleaf (CURLF), said during a presentation in January. “We will likely be importing cannabis from the Southern Hemisphere and from countries such as Uruguay, where we can’t possibly compete with those inputs.””

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.19 at 9:42 am

@#70 Akashic Record
“Barack Obama (108.7m followers)
Katy Perry (108m followers)
Justin Bieber (106.7m followers)
Rihanna (93.5m followers)
Taylor Swift (84.8m followers)
Cristiano Ronaldo (80.1m followers)
Lady Gaga (79.4m followers)
Ellen DeGeneres (78.6m followers)
YouTube (71.8m followers)
Ariana Grande (65.3m followers)”

****
Well I guess there is still hope for the climate deniers.
Katy Perry and “The Beebs” have almost as many followers as Obama.

Give this Greta kid some time.
It’s only been a week since she vented her rage at the UN.

#104 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 9:48 am

There’s always a buffet of Climate Change experts to choose from, so it’s hard to decide which one to go with.

So far, I’m sticking with Guy McPherson. The well learned and academically decorated professor emeritus of U of Arizona says that we are all toast by 2026.

By toast, he means dead. That’s right, no humans left alive anywhere on Earth in about 6 years.

Now, that’s the kind of SHTF I can get into!

Currently I am analyzing Greta’s predictions, but I’m thinking she’s not really taking the consequences of Climate change very seriously at all. She should at least understand she’s done like dinner right about the time she graduates from University. But no. She obviously has a much cheerier view about Climate Change than most of us realists.

What do you think Trumpocalypse?

#105 TurnerNation on 09.27.19 at 9:51 am

Oh our ruling elites. All over the Weed trade. Drug dealing is where it’s at:

‘Globe says Canopy sees Clark join Constellation board
2019-09-27 07:18 ET – In the News
Also In the News (C-TRST) Canntrust Holdings Inc

The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Sept. 27, edition that former British Columbia premier Christy Clark is joining Constellation Brands’ board of directors. The Globe’s Tim Kiladze writes that Ms. Clark is the first Canadian to join Constellation’s board, and her appointment follows the company’s $5-billion investment in Canopy Growth in 2018. Constellation now effectively controls Canopy, with four of seven seats on Canopy’s board. “

#106 Raging Ranter on 09.27.19 at 9:56 am

I see the PM is in Montreal today. Wanna bet he has an appearance scheduled with the climate girl? If that happens, her parents ought to be ashamed of themselves. Bad enough they’re renting her out (I was going to use another word but that would have gotten deleted) to a slick campaign run by PR professionals. But they’re crossing yet another line – a big one – if they allow her to be exploited by politicians for electoral purposes.

Before someone tries to shame me as yet “another middle age white male offended by an empowered teenaged girl” or whatever the prevailing canned response is, I just did it for you, so you needn’t bother. She’s a 16 year old on the high-functioning end of the developmental disorder spectrum – meaning she’s likely years ahead of her peers in terms of intellectual development, but years behind in terms of social awareness and emotional maturity (I have personal experience with this, but for privacy reasons that’s as much as I’m going to divulge). My bone of contention is this: the adults in her life who should be protecting her are instead letting her get used as a pawn in a well-financed global political movement.

Her father has boasted, only partially tongue-in-cheek, of being her “PR manager”. That says all I need to know about this whole Greta-mania phenomenon. I won’t apologize for a lack of gullibility. A healthy skepticism is my responsibility as an adult. It’s yours too. Don’t put your adult obligations on the shelf just because you’re taken with a cause or a story. A sense of fairness or a “willingness to let others speak and hear their voices” does not exempt any of you from using your adult judgement to see through carefully orchestrated BS.

#107 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 9:57 am

@Sail Away #66, Science is not opinion.

#108 The Protest on 09.27.19 at 10:03 am

I got my sign ready and will be protesting to save the world. Our worldwide leader Greta will be taking the stage soon. Climate change is no laughing matter, and carbon taxation will come next.

#109 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 10:06 am

#36 Sandy Simpson on 09.26.19 at 8:19 pm
So someone making $45,000 a year working full time in a restaurant starting to save $800 a month can have $2 million by when?
___

50 years.

Get married and double the effort, you’ll be done in 37.

#110 Flop... on 09.27.19 at 10:19 am

What does Justin Trudeau say to people when he arrives at a costume party?

Things are about to become a little darker in here…

M45BC

#111 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 10:21 am

For those who deny man-made climate change, what do you think of this?

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

#112 Sold Out on 09.27.19 at 10:25 am

#91 BobC

The Epoch Times is the basis of your “intellectual superiority”? Owned by Falun Gong, Trump’s biggest advertising supporter? I like to read widely and consider differing viewpoints, but I draw the line at cults. Do you also have a teeny, tiny universe constantly rotating in your belly button?

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.19 at 10:42 am

#81 DON on 09.27.19 at 12:56 am
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/breaking-news/albertas-auto-insurance-crisis-and-the-simple-fixes-needed-176468.aspx

Similar article in Ontario last week.
———-
“Private insurers are there to make money”
Thank God for ICBC.

#114 Damifino on 09.27.19 at 10:45 am

#90 Justin S

As stated, I’m cheap and would rather not pay someone to manage my money.
—————————–

Suit yourself. It is, after all, a free society.

What I can say is that I’ve been paying professionals (real ones) to manage my finances for almost 20 years. For me, it’s been a bargain and an unqualified success.

I used to do my own taxes too. What a pain. I don’t know why I waited so long to hire a pro.

#115 Sail Away on 09.27.19 at 10:46 am

#94 Justin S on 09.27.19 at 8:26 am
Thanks for the response Garth. Appreciate it.

Let’s say I’m confident I can deal with all that other stuff. I have the tax aspect covered, my wife and I have sufficient retirement pensions built up elsewhere, we own multiple properties in Toronto, etc.

This is really just some additional cash I’m earning each month that isn’t needed elsewhere. I don’t foresee needing it at any point ever, but do want to invest it long term and earn the best possible return I can. So performance really is the driving factor here.

—————————————-

Just put it all in Berkshire-Hathaway B shares. 65 years of much better returns than the 4-5% you’re hoping to get and no dividends to complicate your taxes. Talk again in 10 years or at the Omaha AGM…

#116 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 10:55 am

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.26.19 at 9:32 pm
#40 Sold Out on 09.26.19 at 8:44 pm sez:
“@32 CEF

Perhaps this meets your definition of ‘scholarly’.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0305829818775817”
————————————————–
WOW. Someone took their Gender Studies class a bit too seriously.

______

I read the title, and the first few sentences of that and had to quit.

I actually have a much better scholarly paper in the works:

“Carbonation of woody fibers resulting from toxic masculinity, the patriarchy, underlying misogyny, racism, and Climate hatred – under the guise of radiant heating for chilly Men.”

Abstract:
“Males claim to burn wood in stoves to keep warm in the winter, but closer scientific examination reveals that they do so only because they hate every one, and every thing, and want it all dead. Plus they’re all right wingers.”

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.19 at 10:59 am

#91 BobC on 09.27.19 at 7:46 am
Seems like we’ve always been plagued by weak minded people that want to believe the worst. Perhaps it’s because they feel a false sense of intellectual superiority? Whatever the reason I wish it would stop so important issues would be dealt with.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/dozens-of-failed-climate-predictions-stretch-80-years-back_3096733.html
—————
You’re quoting the Epoch Times.
The Watch Tower is more believable.

#118 Ubul on 09.27.19 at 10:59 am

#111 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 10:21 am

For those who deny man-made climate change, what do you think of this?
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

This comes to my mind.

Kevin Buzzard, a number theorist and professor of pure mathematics at Imperial College London, believes that it is time to create a new area of mathematics dedicated to the computerization of proofs.

The greatest proofs have become so complex that practically no human on earth can understand all of their details, let alone verify them.

He fears that many proofs widely considered to be true are wrong.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8xwm54/number-theorist-fears-all-published-math-is-wrong-actually

http://wwwf.imperial.ac.uk/~buzzard/one_off_lectures/msr.pdf

#119 James on 09.27.19 at 11:00 am

#79 Smoking Man on 09.27.19 at 12:32 am

How do you become a risk taker.
First you need a female gym teach who sports a Crue cut.
Tells you that you will amount to nothing because you though home economics class for girls was a good idea. Said if they can cook and taker care of the house they can easily find a stupid man that will adore her and take care of her the rest of her life..
Man she was pissed.
Grade 12, my guidance counselor said you will be a garbage man.. she too had a crue cut hair doo..
Moral of the story. Never trust a girl that has short hair, and does not like little boys.
Find your sole mate young, and never cheat. Your dead realtives are watching from heaven.
Follow this boys and you and your wife will have a great life and money will fall from the sky..
Girls am I right… ?
Liberalism is mental disorder…escape if you can..
_____________________________________________
So I can surmise that you never found your soul-mate instead you married a hag. Your words below not mine. Do you type what you really think or do you just open you mouth when you are drunk and verbal garbage pours out? All woman are bitches? So I can take it your mother was as well? Come on Old Man get a grip on your sorry life and stop blaming women for your lack of masculinity.

#82 Smoking Man on 05.09.17 at 10:42 pm
I may have a hag.of a wife. Met her when she was 17
I was 19. I’m such a bad ass.

We are in our 50s now. Yeah she is stIll a bitch. All woman are bitches. That’s why real men love em.
I would not change a thing. Love dogs. Figure it out.

Abba again. I’m wasted

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92cwKCU8Z5c&sns=em

#120 n1tro on 09.27.19 at 11:01 am

#111 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 10:21 am
For those who deny man-made climate change, what do you think of this?

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
————–
See that asterix at the end of the first sentence. Scroll all the way down and read/understand what it says. You are welcome.

#121 BobC on 09.27.19 at 11:02 am

#112 Sold out.

I claim no intellectual superiority. I have found that those who point out who is reporting facts as a rebuttal to a debut has no rebuttal.
Did you click through the links to discover where the facts came from? I’m sure you didn’t otherwise you would be forced to consider both sides of an issue. That’s no fun is it?

#122 Ubul on 09.27.19 at 11:03 am

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.19 at 9:42 am
Give this Greta kid some time.
It’s only been a week since she vented her rage at the UN.

https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1177221680999124992

#123 James on 09.27.19 at 11:03 am

#111 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 10:21 am

For those who deny man-made climate change, what do you think of this?

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
_____________________________________________
They will say that this is all fake news and fake science with the scientists being bought off by the left. I didn’t know the the lefties had so much money and influence?

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.19 at 11:09 am

https://theprovince.com/news/politics/finance-minister-orders-cuts-to-discretionary-spending-to-protect-b-c-budget/wcm/59e5c669-c124-43a3-b366-3bab91849228
————
Not bad for a lefty commie government.

#125 Sail away on 09.27.19 at 11:19 am

#107 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 9:57 am

@Sail Away #66, Science is not opinion.

—————————————–

Blackdog, the opinion is your idea that this climate business is of great importance. My opinion is that it’s being blown way out of proportion. I won’t denigrate your opinion if you don’t denigrate mine. Deal?

#126 Shawn Allen on 09.27.19 at 11:29 am

Look at percentage loss or dollar loss?

#55 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.26.19 at 10:02 pm

Isn’t getting off the roller coaster the whole point?

I mean, hey, it’s easy to say the average bear market shaves off 27%. But that’s not how investors live through them. You keep saving and investing every month, and then your first bear hits, and you’re down maybe $25,000 at the bottom. But you keep at it, because you’re young, employable, and it’s a LONG time until you need the money. Time goes by and you keep putting away money every month. The next bear hits, and you find yourself down $250,000. Not that you did anything wrong, just a random bear market applied to your bigger portfolio. But you knuckle through it, and you keep saving.

I wish I could think about my portfolio’s value in percentages or logs. I think almost nobody can.

*************************
I generally think more in percentage. But the dolalrs cl;early matter as well.

Losing say 20% of a portfolio when you are young and it amounts to 20% of annual wages stings but is actually a blessing (buy lower going forward)

Later on losing 20% of the portfolio when it amounts to a full year of wages hurts a lot more.

And losing 20% when you are older and it amounts to say three year’s wages is much more serious due to both age and the amount of dollars involved.

It’s correct to think in dollars as well as percentage.

P.S. I don’t recall all your posts but my general impression is that you have added good value to the discussion.

#127 45north on 09.27.19 at 11:35 am

government debt:

Carol Anne Meehan:

Cash is tight; spending is up, and LRT Stage 2 construction is set to start. The city’s debt is rising, and tax increases are coming. Not the pretty picture taxpayers thought it was.

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/meehan-budget-time-at-ottawa-city-hall-wont-be-as-rosy-as-you-think

somebody’s going to pay and it’s going to be us

#128 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 11:38 am

#111 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 10:21 am
For those who deny man-made climate change, what do you think of this?

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
=====================================================

Thanks for the link. I don’t deny climate change. I am skeptical of the claims of catastrophe. I always like to look into the source data, so from the abstract of the primary link:

“We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

——-
This is of course where the famous “97% of scientists” talking point comes from (various studies like this, dating back to 2004). Basically, in all cases, it is a review of papers looking at the topics by key words, and whether the paper in turn endorses AGW or not.

To summarize the outcome from this study in 2013 from above:
– 66.4% => NO OPINION expressed one way or other
– 32.6% endorsed AGW
– 0.7% rejected AGW
– 0.3% were uncertain

32.6% / 33.6% = 97%!! [of the 33.6% of papers that expressed an opinion, where 66.4% had none]. These are of course only in the narrow field of climate science – it doesn’t capture the views of physicists, geologists, etc.

It is not based on questions answered in a survey (‘do you agree that climate change is real, here, and the greatest threat to mankind’…). It does not cover “all scientists” as the media and Barack would have you believe.

Whether climate change is an extreme threat, or simply change we will adapt to, has nothing to do with the consensus outlined in those reports…

#129 BobC on 09.27.19 at 11:41 am

For those who pick and choose who to read. There’s many more.
Fits in with Garth’s post about people who thinks a drop in the market means it’s going to zero or will keep on going up when they buy high.
This time isn’t different in either case.

https://www.wnd.com/2018/08/30-amazing-years-of-failed-climate-alarm-predictions/

https://climatechangedispatch.com/50-years-failed-climate-predictions/

https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/09/18/doomsdays-that-didnt-happen-report-compiles-decades-of-dire-failed-climate-predictions/

https://realclimatescience.com/2018/06/new-video-30-years-of-failed-climate-predictions/

https://www.naturalnews.com/2018-06-26-the-global-warming-hoax-30-years-failed-predictions.html

#130 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 11:52 am

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.19 at 10:42 am

“Private insurers are there to make money”
Thank God for ICBC.
___

That’s funny Ponzie. Private insurers in Ontario charge me 650.00/year and make plenty of profits, and employ thousands outside the public sector.

ICBC, charges my demographic +400% more for the exact same product and is sinking into insolvency.

I’d bet the just income taxes paid by the employees of the privately run Ontario insurance industry far exceed the “profits” made by BC’s government run debacle.

ICBC – a global leader in burning money and sinking like the Titanic.

#131 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 11:59 am

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.27.19 at 11:09 am
https://theprovince.com/news/politics/finance-minister-orders-cuts-to-discretionary-spending-to-protect-b-c-budget/wcm/59e5c669-c124-43a3-b366-3bab91849228
————
Not bad for a lefty commie government.
____

Nice to see someone looking at it.

What is going on in this country when the Cons want to help you buy a house, and then pay you to renovate it – while the NDP is demanding spending cuts?

I might get a few weed plants on the go next spring.

#132 Raging Ranter on 09.27.19 at 12:22 pm

Oh for crying out loud, the ink was barely dry on my last comment….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-greta-thunberg-climate-change-action-1.5299674

It’s sad that my extreme cynicism was confirmed so expediently. Cynicism of both the PM and the purely political motivations of Greta’s handlers. Didn’t she just spend the last week blasting global leaders for “stealing my dreams”?? Now she’s helping one of them get re-elected??There is no shame and no lower bound to the machinations of either the Liberals or the slick PR brain trust that created Greta Thunberg TM. I was still holding out hope that the whole situation hadn’t become quite so pathetic. I ought to have known better. I’m disgusted. It’s gross.

My biggest concern, however, is more parochial. One does not mine Greta Thunberg’s supporters for votes, then turn around and build the Trans-Mountain pipeline. Those are mutually exclusive actions. They cannot coexist.

That brownface scandal we thought was so hilarious last week had a dark side (no pun intended). It forced Justin’s hand. He had no choice but to abandon any pretense of balance or moderation. He saw an opportunity to double down on climate hysteria to shore up his flagging “progressive” credentials. He’s put all his money on one horse and it’s not the pipeline.

That project is dead. The $4.5 billion he paid, sorry, we paid, will be written off as the cost hanging on to power and salvaging his career and his international image. His provincial counterparts already wrote that playbook with the gas plants, so the precedent is there. What’s a few billion dollars? There’s an election to win! Make no mistake, what we are witnessing here is the sunsetting of Alberta’s oil industry.

If that sounds like the overwrought hyperbole of a deranged right winger, then let’s see our current political leadership defy my lowest expectations and prove me wrong. Just this once.

#133 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 12:33 pm

For those deniers who like visuals.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

#134 Sail away on 09.27.19 at 12:53 pm

#133 Blackdog on 09.27.19 at 12:33 pm

For those deniers who like visuals.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

——————————————————

Ok Blackdog. And your opinion is that a 1.4 F increase over 134 years (if this chart reflects hard data, I haven’t vetted it) is of critical and immediate importance?

I liked it better when we were focused on ants. – Garth

#135 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.27.19 at 1:00 pm

I just can’t get that chart out of my head. So here’s more chart forensics.

I think the genius in the chart is using bars that are the height of the market gains (or losses) TIMES the length of time it took to happen. Would you prefer to double your money in three years, or six? Because on this chart, the six year bar would be twice as big, hitting your brain with twice as much colour. Similarly, a thirty percent loss in a week (like 1987) barely shows up at all — it just doesn’t register with your brain.

Look at the early 2000s — we get a short 45% drop, a small bar, followed by a long 108% gain — twice as high, three times as long, so six times the area aimed at our puny brains. Looks great on the chart, but you’re only up 14% in seven years, which kinda sucks.

Anyway, hats off to Mackenzie Investments for the marketing. Disclosure: I own shares in Mackenzie’s parent company, and its parent company, and the parent company of that in turn.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.19 at 1:05 pm

@#113 Ponzie Plot
““Private insurers are there to make money”
Thank God for ICBC.”

++++

Bwahahahahaha.
Thanks for the gut laugh.

ICBC
Proof that anything the private sector can do.

The govt can do ten times worse for 5 times the money……

#137 Not So New guy on 09.27.19 at 1:09 pm

My favorite question for those university students who say we only have twelve years left.

Why are you spending the next four to six years in Uni if you only have twelve left?

#138 BobC on 09.27.19 at 1:11 pm

#133 Blackdog

We should worry about something important like pollution.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2018/03/12/what-science-says-about-role-of-co2-in-climate-change/#.XY5BxbopCEc

#139 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 1:17 pm

#128 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 11:38 am
___

So many areas where the CC’ers get in trouble with their assertions. Doesn’t mean they’re wrong about CC – but when you engage in intellectually dishonest debate, you are just asking someone to burn your credibility into ash. Just a matter of time before the truth comes out. Who’s going to take you seriously then?

Another fail is descending into ideological zealotry, which the front line CC’ers likely have. The most intense folks get the headlines, set the narrative, and drive the entire bus off a bridge (with all those with reasonable positions still aboard).

Once a group has enshrined their position into an unassailable doctrine, they become unable to maneuver or evolve their position. IMHO, this is why emotional hands are being played (like Greta), instead of logical reasonable approaches. They become unable to debate the details without getting Napalmed.

They’re trapped. They will be convincing no person, and no government through shame, or any other emotional ploy. What they need is credibility – but they keep dumping matches and gasoline on theirs.

What I want to know, is when the CC’ers will join forces with all the Doomsday Preppers? These guys are more concerned about Greta’s fears than any other group out there. They’re actually filling bunkers with guns and ammo and freeze dried food for the day when society finally unravels due to the stress of Global Warming. It appears to me that they believe it more than the CC’ers do themselves.

How about it? 2-3 hardcore Preppers off YT, along with Greta and David Suzuki. Q+A, on how to survive WORL Grid-Down catastrophe as a result of Climate Change.

I’d watch it :)

#140 Sold Out on 09.27.19 at 1:20 pm

Hey Garth,

One of the links posted above by BobC led to a malware attack.

#141 bdwy on 09.27.19 at 1:34 pm

no question that icbc is giving the rotational threaded fastener to drivers in BC thru gross , wasteful inefficencies and sloth. Pigs in a trough.

want to know who is really screwed? motorcycle drivers.

liability premium is 85% of that of a car or truck
number of ppl killed by motorcycles (not on the bike) in BC? can’t find a single example of this ever happening.

in WA state motorcycyles are not required to have liability.

considering car drivers kill bikers regularly and the inverse does not happen , bike insurance should be negative!

#142 45north on 09.27.19 at 1:55 pm

PastThePeak:

Thanks for the link. I don’t deny climate change. I am skeptical of the claims of catastrophe

I’m thinking that increased CO2 in the atmosphere balances the loss of solar radiation. Even if it balances exactly there would be climate change: the polar areas would warm – which is what we’re seeing.

The fact that the Laurentide Ice Sheet covered Canada, 20,000 years ago is an important consideration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurentide_Ice_Sheet

It could be that increased C02 in the atmosphere is now preventing the formation of glaciers – which is what we’re seeing.

#143 BobC on 09.27.19 at 2:04 pm

#140 Sold out

And your not going to say which one? Thanks a lot. I didn’t experience that.

#144 Sail away on 09.27.19 at 2:23 pm

#139 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 1:17 pm
#128 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 11:38 am

—————————

Well stated, both of you. There’s definitely room to work together and lessen environmental impacts if we can avoid the ideological zealotry (good term, IH).

As soon as labels are applied and positions are trashed, the room for working together gets smaller. Skepticism is developed over a lifetime for very good reason, and many areas of the climate change crisis narrative need to be skeptically examined.

Mindless fury on either side is counterproductive.

#145 Latest Promise on 09.27.19 at 2:35 pm

T2 recently discovered that trees can harvest CO2, so now he has promised the funding if elected to plant 2 billion trees over the next 10 years.

#146 GBiddy on 09.27.19 at 2:59 pm

Why can climate alarmists ignore science with impunity?

There’s huge amounts of evidence against what weve been told is climate change–from whether it’s even happening, to what might cause it if it is, to what the effects might be.

Consensus isn’t science, skepticism is. When will people learn? So called climate change deniers are with Copernicus; alarmists are with the Catholic church.

All 4 climate models used by virtually every org or govt are known to be flawed and have been proven wrong time and time again. All climate models ignore the warming effects of convection. Talk to an atmospheric scientist someday. Learn.

Plus, electricity generation around the world is releasing the most powerful greenhouse gas in existence, 23,500 times worse that CO2, according to the all-knowing BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49567197

Climate alarmism is a huge threat to democracy and personal liberty because by and large, people are so weak minded and have such a strong need to fit in with the herd, they follow along.

In my lifetime we’ve gone from global cooling, to global warming, to climate change, to extreme weather, to climate emergency, and now to a climate crisis.

Ridiculous–how can more people not see this for what it is?

Pollution needs to be greatly reduced, and I want clean and and water and fish filled rivers for my kids etc. But the only threat to humans is from deforestation, urban sprawl, nuclear weapons and acts of God in the form of asteroid impact, volcanoes, or earthquakes.

Everything else is just noise designed to free you of your mind, freewill, and money.

#147 n1tro on 09.27.19 at 3:02 pm

#145 Latest Promise on 09.27.19 at 2:35 pm
T2 recently discovered that trees can harvest CO2, so now he has promised the funding if elected to plant 2 billion trees over the next 10 years.
——–
In Canada or is our money to be spent to replant other countries’ trees?

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.27.19 at 3:05 pm

@#136 Prattling Pilates
“Private insurers are there to make money”
Thank God for ICBC.”

*****

ICBC
A Cash Cow for the BC govt if there ever was one….. until the idiots in charge sucked so much money from the ICBC teat…..it ran dry.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Government+grabbing+cash+from+ICBC+Hydro+they+raise+rates+charges/9527548/story.html

ICBC and its legions of govt employees grunting and snuffling at the govt trough.

A financial disaster that the current NDP govt doesnt dare eradicate it( since the NDP were the idiots that created it in the first place ).
ICBC where most of its employees are the NDP govt’s unionized supporters…
Total conflict of interest.
Nah.
We’ll just watch car insurance rates climb ever higher into the stratosphere until even the most die hard union voters cant justify it’s existence AND it’s usefullness as a general revenue cash cow for the Liberal has been rendered moot.

#149 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 3:29 pm

#144 Sail away on 09.27.19 at 2:23 pm
#139 IHCTD9 on 09.27.19 at 1:17 pm
#128 PastThePeak on 09.27.19 at 11:38 am

—————————

Well stated, both of you. There’s definitely room to work together and lessen environmental impacts if we can avoid the ideological zealotry (good term, IH).

As soon as labels are applied and positions are trashed, the room for working together gets smaller. Skepticism is developed over a lifetime for very good reason, and many areas of the climate change crisis narrative need to be skeptically examined.

Mindless fury on either side is counterproductive.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Besides the ideological zealotry of the “CC = catastrophe” crowd, my second criticism is that their stated solutions will NOT (I repeat, NOT) work.

It is not possible to generate enough electricity from intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar for the population & civilization we have today, let alone what might be in the future. The energy density isn’t there even when the power is generated, it is intermittent, and to top it off the longevity of solar (investment) isn’t there.

But that is all the CC crowd talk about. It must be “green”. Despite multiple 10s of billions of investment in such capacity in the last 2 decades, the global energy output is in the low single digit %. You can’t get there, from here.

The only non-fossil fuel option is nuclear, and it is NEVER discussed by the CC crowd.

Add in their endless talk about reducing usage, while themselves traveling non-stop (often by private jets), and it is a wonder anyone is paying attention. Unfortunately, the media long ago gave up any aspect of “asking the hard questions”. They just lap up whatever the progressive elites have to offer.

#150 N on 09.27.19 at 3:34 pm

If true, this could revolutionize the world that we know…

A young Nigerian, Emeka Nelson dared to dream and has eventually made it a reality.
Emeka has the potential to put power -generating companies out of business.
He created a generator that runs purely on water and has used it to power his 2-bedroom apartment in Awka, Anambra state.
https://www.africa.com/young-nigerian-invents-generator-that-runs-on-water/

#151 jess on 09.27.19 at 3:36 pm

perhaps kids /adults do not want to live in this kind of society
——————————-
An irrational fear is called a phobia.

so is this irrational?

$48M Michigan high school designed to thwart active shooters …

How about the Japanese people who heard the warning alarms but thought it was just a practice run

will it make you look risk adverse/perceived as weak ?

the fear of fear worsens panic when things eventually start to go wrong

#152 Ustabe on 09.27.19 at 3:54 pm

There used to be a TV show about a father/son duo who built awful motorcycles and argued a lot. I think it was called American Chopper.

From time to time I’d inadvertently catch a bit of it and I recall thinking “Man, I’m glad none of those clowns live next door to me!”

I’m thinking the same thing more and more often of late as I read the blog comments.

#153 NoName on 09.27.19 at 4:00 pm

150 N on 09.27.19 at 3:34 pm
If true, this could revolutionize the world that we know…

A young Nigerian, Emeka Nelson dared to dream and has eventually made it a reality.
Emeka has the potential to put power -generating companies out of business.
He created a generator that runs purely on water and has used it to power his 2-bedroom apartment in Awka, Anambra state.
https://www.africa.com/young-nigerian-invents-generator-that-runs-on-water/

Funny thing I read almost same article about Romanian dude who did exactly same thing. So I went and red paper published on h2o engines, and the help with emissions under certain circumstances, but generally for h2o engine energy in is greater than energy out.

Why don’t you just leave comment section and go protest climate change, iam sure that higher taxes will fix it.

And on a side note, what is your carbon footprint?

You answer me that I look for picture of h2o engine that company I worked for I billed way back in 99, to deal with truck exhaust emmisions.

#154 NoName on 09.27.19 at 4:07 pm

Addendum toy previous post, I built that h2o engine from prints, iam not that smart to invent something like that. Way over head…

#155 NoName on 09.27.19 at 4:11 pm

Addendum to addendum, someone smart figured it out that addinh urea to diesel engine, reduce emissions. Just a small pump and cheap couple of gallons cheap plastic thank.

Funny this thing science is…

#156 NoName on 09.27.19 at 4:36 pm

I don’t know is it just imagination or I am on to something, last couple of weeks gargler spam filter is filtering all conservative emails to me, straight to spam…

Funny enough I subscribed to other party (not socialist or eco-friendly), other major opposing party and their email not In spam.

Scratching my head and wandering did I have one drink to many or not enough to solve this misterija…

#157 espressobob on 09.27.19 at 4:54 pm

I’ve been reading Garths blog for many moons and share the fundamentals on this post in particular.

Set it up the right way and leave it alone. Rebalancing on occasion never hurt anyone.

Following the markets daily and the usual tripe on the morning news is anything but conducive to smart investing.

Can’t handle the heat? Hire a pro.