Get over it

“I like to think I’m a smart guy,” says the kid. “I like bashing other millennials for being stupid, so I’m hoping you can keep me on the straight and narrow here so I can maintain my intellectual superiority complex.”

So far, you sound like a jerk. But do continue.

“My income is just over 100k, my wife stays home with our kids and we rent a townhouse for under 2000 a month. We like renting. Last year I determined in order to generate a sufficient retirement fund, I would need to invest a minimum of $15,000 a year for the next 40 years, expecting a modest growth rate of 5%. We’re on track to add $25,000 this year, and our expenses have been higher than average. This actually makes me worry we may be saving too much, deferring comfort for us and our kids in the present.

“Being a natural contrarian, I dumped a bunch of cash into equities back in December when everyone was panicking about the stock market. I’m very risk-tolerant when it comes to investing, so my portfolio is comprised of nearly 100% US, international, and Canadian equities.

“I realize that this isn’t a balanced portfolio, as you so often recommend on your blog, but given that I’m 40 years away from retirement and firmly not going to sell in a downturn, is it a reasonable strategy to remain exclusively in equities now, and slowly increase my weighting of fixed income over the years until I reach something like a 60/40 mix around 2050?”

A common question. Hear it a lot. This reflects a persistent myth of the investment business – that risk tolerance is the biggest factor in designing a portfolio. That logic has young achievers like this guy gung-ho on equities, while retired people are supposed to live off bond interest and KD. But it’s unwise. Risk tolerance has a lot more to do with your wussiness than your age.

Why? We all live in the same world. It contains Donald Trump, falling rates, trade wars, Brexit, Hong Kong, Iran and a whole heap of nationalist, dingbat, dangerous politicians. This stuff causes volatility, which breeds emotion. People get scared. Recency bias kicks in. Fear makes them sell at the worst moments, just as lust makes them buy badly. Everybody gets the willies sometimes. Even cowboys.

The point of having a 60/40 B&D portfolio is (a) to mitigate losses when markets fall, so (b) you will ignore the news, but (c) to grab growth when things advance.

Now, today. Where are we? Is this a good or troubled time to make portfolio changes?

First, the bad news. As we head into the autumn of 2019 things are kinda like they were this time a year ago. Trump is unpredictable and quixotic, with the power to move markets on a whim. The trade war’s worse. Volatility has increased (check out the Vix). Corporate earnings have staled. Manufacturing data’s weak. There’s recession talk in the air. And unlike this time last September, bond yields have plunged, bond prices soared and interest rates reversed.

Of course, Q4 of 2018 turned into a giant buying opportunity for those with cash and courage. It was a nothingburger for balanced investors who ignored it. And it became a disaster for those with a bad attitude who got spooked and sold into the storm.

Now the good news. So far in 2019 the US market has gained 18% (S&P) and Bay Street is ahead 15.5%. Balanced portfolios recovered all of the 2019 loss and have grown nicely, thanks in part to the big pop in bond prices. The jobs numbers are great – US is still at a 50-year-low unemployment level while Canada exploded with over 80,000 new positions last month. Wages are increasing. Crashing mortgage rates have created more real estate sales.

Suddenly the odds of extra rate cuts in the US are diminishing. Most expect a small chop next month, but half the pundits now think the Fed might rest there. What a sea change in a few days. And we hear there are high-level US-China trade talks set for Washington. Finally, Trump. As oft said, there’s no way he wants an election in 2020 in the middle of a slowdown or a market plop.

Given this, some people think the Dow (now nearing 27,000) will achieve 40,000. Trump said days ago it would be ten thousand points higher without a trade war. And he has the power to end it. Go figure. This is why the Bank of Canada didn’t cut its key rate a few days ago. It knows. In fact, a drop at the end of October may soon be in doubt.

Does this mean markets won’t have another bout of year-end, Trump-induced chaos?

 Absolutely not. It’s entirely possible a new purge could take place. Traders have seen stellar returns in 2019 and may be wanting to take some gains (and risk) off the table. In fact, so long as the Trump presidency lasts, we’re prone to more big, shocking twists in sentiment and market direction.

This is the world we inhabit. Long-term sustained growth based on techno advance, economic growth, a rising and affluent middle class and a globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism. That’s inevitable. But it’ll come with turbulence. An all-equity portfolio will be like a cork on the sea in a Cat 5 howl. Why endure such turbulence when it’s unnecessary and upsetting? For the same reason, why spend the last decades of your life counting pennies because you feared losses?

Balance. Diversity. Liquidity. Do not desert the three pillars. You will topple.

83 comments ↓

#1 Rise Canada on 09.08.19 at 2:28 pm

DELETED & BANNED

#2 JackSquat on 09.08.19 at 2:40 pm

#84 oh bouy on 09.08.19 at 9:23 am
@#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm
6 MF on 09.07.19 at 8:58 am
#65 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 1:55 am

Show some damn respect to risk takers.. With out us, you all starve..
_______________________

sm you’re closer to a village idiot than risk taker.
_______________________

he is a make believe entrepreneur who misspells words on purpose too for daily attention

#3 red falcon on 09.08.19 at 2:41 pm

The future is Best!
and Dividends from dividend blue chip equities are best too! don’t forget that!

and… first!

#4 db on 09.08.19 at 2:42 pm

Small correction to your post…
“Of course, Q4 of 2019 turned into a giant buying opportunity for those with cash and courage….”
Guessing you meant Q4 of 2018..more importantly, how are you and the family after Dorian? All the best, stay safe.

#5 TurnerNation on 09.08.19 at 3:04 pm

Photo is Smoking man wearing a T-trump toupee??
T-riggered.

Anyway I support a ban on single-use Blog Dogs.

#6 TurnerNation on 09.08.19 at 3:07 pm

The kids are alright?
Pharma solution is working. Well done T2.

“FRIDAY, Sept. 6, 2019 — Marijuana use by U.S. college students in 2018 was the highest in 35 years, researchers report.

Their survey of about 1,400 respondents, ages 19 to 22, found that about 43% of full-time college students said they used some form of marijuana at least once in the past year, up from 38% in 2017, and previous month use rose to 25% from 21%, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

The 2018 rates are the highest found in the annual University of Michigan survey since 1983.”

#7 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:13 pm

Hi. Garth. I hope you and your family safely weathered Hurricane Dorian. Now, I am a happy little old lady of 80 who loves your blog and tries to follow your advice. However last year when GIC’s started returning 3% I weakened and bought some. Later this year a couple will come due and I am considering purchasing a preferred ETF. Wise? At 80 preservation of assets has become more of a concern. I guess what I’m asking is what should me balance be? I’m currently 70% fixed income and 30% annuities and REITs. Old age can get expensive. So far, so good.
Thanks.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.19 at 3:23 pm

“so long as the Trump presidency lasts….”

+++++
Interesting post.

I’m wondering if the pressure is getting to Trump.
A mental meltdown before impeachment?

#9 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:25 pm

Sorry. Garth. My previous post contained an error. My current portfolio is 70% fixed income and 30% equities not annuities. A comment for everyone on how to manage long after retirement would be appreciated
Thanksforyour patience

#10 Dave on 09.08.19 at 4:15 pm

Cost living day to day is beyond measure

Rent gas food clothing and then more with kids.

Hyper inflation for the regular joe….debt is locked in for life. Free slaves.

#11 conan on 09.08.19 at 4:28 pm

Trump has the power to end the trade wars, but will he?
He is the idiot that started them. Billions of people are witness to this fact. Besides, canceling may trigger billion dollar + fines from the WTO.

He has done more than a little damage. Now, he is a loose cannon that wants to be rewarded for stopping his economic juggernaut.

I will be surprised if the markets like this.

#12 Nonplused on 09.08.19 at 4:31 pm

First of all Garth, good to see you survived Dorian relatively unscathed (I hope and assume since you are posting already). I hope everyone affected is well and the damage isn’t too bad. Sounds like many people will be without power for days so let’s hope for the best for them.

With regard to the post today, I would remind the kid of your other point on re-balancing. That simple strategy causes a move out of bonds and into equities whenever equities plop, which is the best time to do it, so the long term exposure to the equities market may be higher than the 40% or 50% or 60% or whatever it is a person is comfortable with. 100% is obviously too high as there is then nothing to re-balance out of, so the tool is lost. The “safe” stuff has to be a large enough part of the portfolio to counterweight the growth stuff through re-balancing. Not that you haven’t explained that in detail before and given us the magic 60/40 split. But I think those with long time horizons could start at 40/60 and move towards 60/40, but I wouldn’t expect a financial adviser to make that his professional opinion. Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing: “Don’t lose money.”

Dorian hit as a Cat 2 with winds of 155 km and enough rain to revive ark-building. I’ve been in two lightning strikes and one tornado, but this was the first hurricane. One’s enough. – Garth

#13 David on 09.08.19 at 5:01 pm

I have had almost 100% of my money in Canadian equities for the past 25 years. I sold all my US stocks years ago to avoid the 15% US withholding tax. All of my shares pay high dividends from ranging from 4.47% for BMO to 7.42% for RUS. My portfolio is well balanced between a dozen large Canadian companies with EPS levels well above their dividend payout rates so I don’t worry about dividend cuts. Why on earth should I put money in bonds and similar investments which pay a lot less than my stocks and are taxed at a higher rate? Since 1995 the value of my portfolio has increased to 15 times what it was when I started. There have been big dips along the way but they didn’t bother me much because the dividends just kept rolling in. And that’s the way I like it.

#14 thesecondcomingofjohngalt on 09.08.19 at 5:02 pm

Hi Garth,
There is a very good article written by Neil McDonald about tough decisions when having a dog with health issues on Sundays CBC website, given some of the stories you’ve shared with us about having a dog in the family, I thought you,and other readers who have dogs might appreciate what Neil has to say. Not tech savvy enough to figure out how to post the link, maybe you could help in this regard. Always look forward to reading your blog.

Thank you. The article is here. – Garth

#15 mark on 09.08.19 at 5:16 pm

#2 JackSquat on 09.08.19 at 2:40 pm

GAL.
Figure it out.

#16 mark on 09.08.19 at 5:22 pm

Can I get a refund please.

#17 Nonplused on 09.08.19 at 5:38 pm

“Dorian hit as a Cat 2 with winds of 155 km and enough rain to revive ark-building. I’ve been in two lightning strikes and one tornado, but this was the first hurricane. One’s enough. – Garth”

Well I am glad you are alright and I hope everyone else is too.

#18 FreeBird on 09.08.19 at 5:52 pm

#7 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:13 pm
Hi. Garth. I hope you and your family safely weathered Hurricane Dorian. Now, I am a happy little old lady of 80 who loves your blog and tries to follow your advice. However last year when GIC’s started returning 3% I weakened and bought some. Later this year a couple will come due and I am considering purchasing a preferred ETF. Wise? At 80 preservation of assets has become more of a concern. I guess what I’m asking is what should me balance be? I’m currently 70% fixed income and 30% annuities and REITs. Old age can get expensive. So far, so good.
Thanks.
————————-
I’m not Garth (obviously) but if you missed this post it might help.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/09/01/time/

If you’re up to it invest (pun intended) some time searching this site either using the field in upper right of this page (just below his pic) or via Google will yield a wealth of posts on advice for golden aged readers and on pref’d shares recently. Saying retired readers these days could mean <50 years old (FIRE). Ryan has covered both as well in his posts and sometimes gives more specific advice in comment/steerage section of his posts if you’re brave enough…some wine first.

Good luck.

#19 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 6:05 pm

“…globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism.”

As long as that does not create One World Labour Mobility ala Soros.

Italia has a very thick culture and I can tell you that we do not want to be overrun by the “open borders labour” concept of Globalists such as Soros et. al.

If all this pluralistic globalism works so well (excluding finance, trade) then why is the UN so dysfunctional?

Globalism will not overcome Nationalism in the end lest National cultures are LAID WASTE.

THAT will take some doing in a country like Italia (scratching the surface):

1. That has more World Heritage Sites than any other country (we stopped applying many years ago, let the rest of the World catch up – we used to have more sights than the rest of the World combined).

2. We gave the World Rome [1,400 years].

3. The Venetians [when the rest of Europe was still in the Dark Ages].

4. We pulled the “West” out of the Dark Ages with the Renaissance and

5. Per the dysfunctional UN, 60% of the World’s most significant art is in Italia (would the Louvre be even worth visiting without the Mona Lisa [La Gioconda]?).

Ya, I want to see the above be overrun and disappear with whomever wants to “drop in” and bid local wages lower.

Globalism is fine as long as it sticks to economics MINUS cheap labour flooding across borders unchecked – if it does, it will fail miserably…well, in Italia anyway (and Japan I suspect as well).

Canada can keep on adding gobs of immigrants to prop up its GDP.

There are some things however that money cannot buy and NEVER will.

Talking in black-and-white is destructive and disingenuous. No mainstream political party anywhere advocates for open borders or ‘overrunning’ your precious culture. You only enable and legitimize the bigots by using such rhetoric. I held you in higher regard. – Garth

#20 Sail Away on 09.08.19 at 6:12 pm

What Garth said. Now rebalance!

#21 Yukon Elvis on 09.08.19 at 6:16 pm

#19 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 6:05 pm
“…globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism.”

………………………….

I wish I had said that as well as you did.

#22 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 6:31 pm

PS:

Glad to read Garth that you made it thru Dorian.

Ciao d’Italia.

#23 Nonplused on 09.08.19 at 6:42 pm

#19 Dolce Vita

They are advertising on the radio that Canada is expecting 600,000 immigrants in the next I think they said by 2024. Not that I am opposed to immigration, based on the needs of the host country, but it wasn’t that long ago that Calgary was only 600,000 people. It’s more people than all but our top 10 cities. It’s more than Newfoundland. So it sounds like a lot but it’s only a 1.6% rise in population over 5 years, so it’s only about 0.33% per year. In other words, each year about 3-4 people in 1000 will be new immigrants. That does not much make up for the decline in births below replacement rates, which is approximately 20 people per year. (2.2-1.8)*1000/20 years (I assumed each woman has a 20 year window to have her 1.8 children, 2.2 is considered replacement).

So the immigration numbers really aren’t that bad in Canada. We aren’t being “overwhelmed”.

#24 Long-Time Lurker on 09.08.19 at 6:45 pm

#7 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:13 pm
Hi. Garth. I hope you and your family safely weathered Hurricane Dorian. Now, I am a happy little old lady of 80 who loves your blog and tries to follow your advice. However last year when GIC’s started returning 3% I weakened and bought some. Later this year a couple will come due and I am considering purchasing a preferred ETF. Wise? At 80 preservation of assets has become more of a concern. I guess what I’m asking is what should me balance be? I’m currently 70% fixed income and 30% annuities and REITs. Old age can get expensive. So far, so good.
Thanks.

#9 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:25 pm
Sorry. Garth. My previous post contained an error. My current portfolio is 70% fixed income and 30% equities not annuities. A comment for everyone on how to manage long after retirement would be appreciated
Thanksforyour patience

>I think your 70% fixed income to 30% equities & REITS is a good balance for an 80-year-old. It could even be more conservative like 80/20 given all the risks in the world at the moment. You could add in the preferred shares to your equities portion while keeping the conservative balance.

You don’t really need the capital gains from equities at your age but a safe, steady, and sufficient income. You could increase your preferred shares percentage in the 30% equities proportion and reduce the common shares equity percentage: As preferred shares are something like a safer equity bond paying out a regular dividend.

Just my opinion.

I hope you’re doing okay, Garth. Do you think this was good or bad advice? I could use a second opinion.

#25 Irwin on 09.08.19 at 6:55 pm

If anyone thinks Trump (that’s Mister to you) cares about winning 2020, you really don’t know much.

He would walk away in a heart beat if he detected someone with a pulse who was willing to put up with the crap that he does, and still get the job done.

I bow before the Almighty.

#26 baloney Sandwitch on 09.08.19 at 7:14 pm

Just make sure you have enough cash etc. for 3 years of expenses. A recession usually lasts less than a couple of years.
I have done that and then I have 85% of the rest in stocks and 15% in fixed. Dividends keep on rolling in anyway.

#27 Fred on 09.08.19 at 7:15 pm

Am in the same boat – 100% equities and I don’t even look at my portfolio , turn the news off .add quarterly

I’ll be a millionaire in 30 years, or the world crested a new normal . Real estate ship has sailed in Canada so equities it is

(Btw all the US is running a trillion dollar deficit with UE below 4%, but who cares ,right ?:) …)

#28 Lost...but not leased on 09.08.19 at 7:28 pm

Thanks for posting CrowdedPhartzMans Kindergarten grad photo..

Should get about .ooo1 cents on E -Bay

#29 Blackdog on 09.08.19 at 7:28 pm

Re: #14 The secondcomingofJohnGalt

I was thinking to post a comment regarding Neil McDonald’s article as well. Responded, suggesting he go for the surgery. Veterinary medicine has come a long way.

And on that note, PLEASE dog (and cat) owners, consider pet insurance. Insurance of all types is for cat(and dog)astrophic events. If you love your pet, but would struggle tremendously to pay for their care due to illness or injury requiring expensive treatment, pet insurance is for you.

#30 akashic record on 09.08.19 at 7:33 pm

“rising and affluent middle class”

What’s Canada’s average household income? What’s the 30-years trend-line?

The reference, of course, was global. – Garth

#31 Cici on 09.08.19 at 7:49 pm

Glad to hear you are safe, thanks for posting!

The MPTV video was great too. You didn’t seem stressed at all and I loved your hilarious commentary!

And PS, the kid may be a jerk but at least he’s a smart and responsible jerk who’s on a great trajectory and will most likely succeed regardless of his weightings, so long as he stays brave enough to stay focused and cancel out the noise.

#32 akashic record on 09.08.19 at 7:58 pm

#30 akashic record on 09.08.19 at 7:33 pm

“rising and affluent middle class”

What’s Canada’s average household income? What’s the 30-years trend-line?

The reference, of course, was global. – Garth

Of course.

#33 Second Opinion on 09.08.19 at 8:00 pm

There are not enough facts to make one, for this 80 year old citizen.

#34 Gone on 09.08.19 at 8:32 pm

Globalization was a cute theory embraced by the chattering classes. It’s a dead duck. But it is great to see everything you worked a life time for collapse. Trump woke the deplorable people up, and not a minute too soon.

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.19 at 9:03 pm

@#28 Lost the leased car
“Should get about .ooo1 cents on E -Bay”

+++++
You’re too kind.

I’ll take that $0.0001 bid in Zimbabwean dollars….makes me an instant billionaire…

#36 Nonplused on 09.08.19 at 9:39 pm

#14 thesecondcomingofjohngalt

I read that article too but somewhat disagree with the author.

Lola would have suffered her vocations regardless of who her owner was. Hard decisions have to be made. We all lose loved ones of however many legs they have, and usually before we would like. Lola is lucky to have such a compassionate owner, and if he wasn’t making the decisions, somebody else would be.

I do not look forward to the day we will have to decide to put our dog down. And the decision will not be made lightly. But the fact is we don’t put our pets into an induced comma until natural causes take their effect like we do with our elderly.

Sometimes decisions must be made. To me it sounds like the author is doing the right thing, letting Lola swim while she can. But the writing is on the wall longer term. It is with all of us among the living. So you have to make the best decision you can, knowing full well you’ll always feel like it was the wrong one afterward.

When I was young our cat starting having debilitating epileptic seizures, which got worse and worse. My mom put it out to stay in the garage. One day it ran away to die in the woods, or so I was told. It wasn’t until years later that I figured out what happened. Either the cat died, or my mom took it to the vet.

I once worked for a guy who decided to tell me his story about his diabetic dog, whom he gave shots every day for a year before he put the dog down. He thought the vet had misinformed him. I said something along the lines that the vet was presenting options and didn’t want to be responsible for the decision. He laid me off not long after. But I wasn’t trying to say he made the wrong decision, the dog lasted another year and still could go on morning runs with his owner, which they loved to do together. A year for an old dog is a long time, and it sounds like he (the dog) was happy except for his morning prick. I’m not sure I can directly attribute the comment to my fate but I don’t get involved in such conversations anymore.

Things have to be done and you are never sure you are making the best decision. If you are sure, you lack knowledge and experience.

#37 Millennial905er on 09.08.19 at 9:43 pm

God I love Trump. MAGA2020.

#38 Lost...but not leased on 09.08.19 at 9:59 pm

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz

====================

Don’t get us wrong….

We 99.888 % turdally respect your #[email protected]&% views

That straight jacket we sent is a token of our depreciation.

#39 Ex TO on 09.08.19 at 10:17 pm

Thanks Garth for your daily column and your willingness to share your expertise and experience!!

Hope that you and Dorothy were not impacted by yesterday’s storm? We were worried about you!

#40 Sail away on 09.08.19 at 11:28 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/hatred-for-donald-trump-clouds-judgment-of-canadians/ar-AAGZ5Rn?ocid=spartanntp

#41 Mark on 09.08.19 at 11:45 pm

#23 Nonplused on 09.08.19 at 6:42 pm

Tell that to the Canadian that can’t get McDonald’s job no more!!!

#42 Entrepreneur on 09.08.19 at 11:49 pm

“…globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism. That’s inevitable.” I find that troubling also.

Well said #19 Dolce Vita. Include the environment with that, connect the dots, do not exclude because it is international.

But, but, what do the people want, especially the ones that are left out or on welfare, homeless.

Also, “Crashing mortgage rates have created more real estate sales.” You mean get more people into debt that they cannot move, most of the salary goes towards mortgages, less on the basics like food, clothing. Get a job that does not agree with values and forget starting a business, can’t pour money into that. I call that “really dumb,” “stupid”, “greedy.” What about the environment?

Pulling strings like a puppet, control, is not the answer.
Let the people live, build from the bottom up, flourish within borders. People are not asking for much, basic food, clothing and shelter. Their dreams.

Connect the dots.

#43 Not So New guy on 09.08.19 at 11:50 pm

Dorian hit as a Cat 2 with winds of 155 km and enough rain to revive ark-building. I’ve been in two lightning strikes and one tornado, but this was the first hurricane. One’s enough. – Garth

================================

You better move to Vancouver then because it is clear you don’t have any earthquakes in your portfolio yet. :)

#44 Fortune500 on 09.09.19 at 12:15 am

Glad to hear you are safe Garth! What about a post on investing in a negative interest rate environment? I mean, assuming we get another recession (guaranteed), it looks to be the only course left for the US. How do you suggest investors handle that?

#45 NoName on 09.09.19 at 12:18 am

@ Lavida loca

“open borders labour”

Answer me this why, stress over open borders labour when you have robots, 3rd world disposable workers and “borderless” product mobility?

Funny thing someone somewhere come to conclusion that joe deplorable is getting bit wresles watching his kids becoming wreched. I guess they realised we arived to pitch fork on a road…

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/it-s-not-all-about-shareholders-any-more-ceo-group-n1043846

#46 TG on 09.09.19 at 12:33 am

DELETED

#47 Al on 09.09.19 at 1:01 am

If you think all equities is a roller coaster, ask Doug how gambling/poker is, even when you have a huge expected advantage. 100 precent diversified equities feels like betting on a colour in roulette!

#48 Smoking Man on 09.09.19 at 1:24 am

Fellow writers. Next time you get writes block. Drink some jack and crank this on the ear buds.

You are cured.

https://youtu.be/_wO8toxinoc

#49 Dolce Vita on 09.09.19 at 3:12 am

“Talking in black-and-white is destructive and disingenuous. No mainstream political party anywhere advocates for open borders or ‘overrunning’ your precious culture. You only enable and legitimize the bigots by using such rhetoric. I held you in higher regard. – Garth”

——————————————-

Well Garth tell that to the Dalai Lama:

“Europe belongs to the Europeans.”

or as Righty Peter Hitchens says (better than I):

“Without borders the world Will become – is visibly becoming – a howling desert of traffic fumes, plastic and concrete, where nowhere is home and the only language is money.”

I have the courage to say what most are afraid to say and I am not deterred by “preening cultural superiority” for the sake of of outward appearances (and appeasing Globalists).

And yes, our culture is “precious” and we want to keep it that way. We are in no need of cultural enrichment, diversity…we have plenty of that to go around, well, so implies the dysfunctional UN.

No party advocates open borders. Be careful what you write. – Garth

#50 SoggyShorts on 09.09.19 at 3:21 am

#88 Sail Away on 09.08.19 at 11:23 am
#78 Al on 09.08.19 at 1:12 am

You do realize that anyone can write anything[about trump], right?
*********************
Anecdotal and unconfirmed as some things may be, there’s just so MANY of them I find it hard to brush them all off.

I can’t imagine that as crazy as he acts on twitter and on camera that he’s some totally cool, and collected dude behind the scenes.

Also, if he was a thoughtful and calm person I believe that would leak out and we’d have quotes from other (probably unconfirmed) sources saying so…but I’m not seeing any when I google for it.

Seriously, nothing. Every phrase I can think of searching the only person I can ever find saying something positive about trump is…trump–it’s possible he’s drowned out every other positive voice by shouting about what a tremendously stable genius he is…

Maybe I didn’t try hard enough, can you find quotes from staffers, aides, janitors, or anyone at all saying good things about working with Trump? Listing great qualities or just refuting what every other quote seems to agree on?

A few days ago when presented a list of times Trump was racist you felt that those weren’t enough proof either which leads me to ask:

Why? Do you personally know him or at least have a trusted relative/friend who does? Is it a pure benefit of the doubt thing that you give everyone?
I’m genuinely curious as I doubt that any theory/position on what you think Trump is really like has much impact on your life so what makes you choose to believe as you do?

#51 Ustabe on 09.09.19 at 4:06 am

PSA:

Now and into the near future is a really good time to take early morning walks on the beach if you live on or near any of the Maritime coasts.

It is surprising what kinds of flotsam roll up on the tides after a big storm.

#52 dharma bum on 09.09.19 at 8:04 am

#5 TurnerNation
#28 Lost…but not leased

Re: The Photo

I submitted this photograph because the t-shirt slogan reminded me of something Garth might say.

I just recently met that dude while on an impulsive cross border shopping spree with the wife in Rochester, NY (I had to get my Trader Joe’s fix).

I spotted him walking along and told him that I liked his shirt, and asked if I could take his picture.

He told me that he decided to wear it that day because he had to go down to the Veterans Affairs office, and that it was the appropriate thing to do, given the miserable folks that work there. Haha!

He was walking with a cane made out of a full length rattle snake body, head, gaping mouth with fangs, and all.

Characters abound.

#53 Remembrancer on 09.09.19 at 8:12 am

#49 Dolce Vita on 09.09.19 at 3:12 am
We are in no need of cultural enrichment, diversity…
————————
The Dalai Lama and Peter Hitchens, that’s quite a reading list range, good for you. You do know that the Europe for Europeans meme begins with a moral imperative “…receive them, help them, educate them…” right? Hardly isolationist nationalism…

Oh and one of the best donairs I’ve had outside of Halifax was blocks from the Vatican – diversity baby…

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.19 at 8:21 am

@#38 Lost the leased car
“That straight jacket we sent…..”

++++++

And here I thought you were announcing your freedom from the asylum…

#55 Howard on 09.09.19 at 8:41 am

DELETED

#56 Howard on 09.09.19 at 8:52 am

DELETED.

You were warned, and are now banned. – Garth

#57 Howard on 09.09.19 at 8:55 am

No party advocates open borders. Be careful what you write. – Garth

—————————————

Maybe, but the Democrats seem bizarrely opposed to border controls.

There are no mainstream US politicians advocating open borders. None in Canada. Nor Britain, or France or any other country. Stop posting lies. – Garth

#58 Howard on 09.09.19 at 8:57 am

Dolce Vita,

It does seem like nationalism has taken a hit what with the ousting of Salvini, though I suspect this is a blip in the road until the next election when I expect Salvini to win handily.

#59 Howard on 09.09.19 at 9:14 am

BANNED

#60 Boffo Sam on 09.09.19 at 9:33 am

97% approval rating for Trump.

https://www.facebook.com/95475020353/posts/10163587351845354/

This is double Obama’s best poll days after his election.

Looks like Trump’s policies are long term . The TDS will cost the whiners big time. Wah !!!

Meanwhile Trump is winning the trade war. Chinese manufacturing tanking. All Asia is eating thier lunch and happy to do it. Looks like China’s bullying hasn’t made any friends.

#61 Howard on 09.09.19 at 9:34 am

BANNED

#62 Sail Away on 09.09.19 at 9:40 am

#50 SoggyShorts on 09.09.19 at 3:21 am
#88 Sail Away on 09.08.19 at 11:23 am
#78 Al on 09.08.19 at 1:12 am

You do realize that anyone can write anything[about trump], right?
*********************
Anecdotal and unconfirmed as some things may be, there’s just so MANY of them I find it hard to brush them all off.

A few days ago when presented a list of times Trump was racist you felt that those weren’t enough proof either which leads me to ask:

Why? Do you personally know him or at least have a trusted relative/friend who does? Is it a pure benefit of the doubt thing that you give everyone?

I’m genuinely curious as I doubt that any theory/position on what you think Trump is really like has much impact on your life so what makes you choose to believe as you do?

————————————————–

There’s no belief of good or bad on my side, just application of critical thinking, so I neither support nor condemn. Review the facts, remove emotion, and see what remains.

#63 IHCTD9 on 09.09.19 at 10:23 am

#19 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 6:05 pm
“…globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism.”

As long as that does not create One World Labour Mobility ala Soros.
____

I don’t like it either – but you’d best get ready – well, get your kids and grand kids ready.

As humans moved from tribes to nations, everything improved. As people moved from small groups to large groups the dynamics of living changed. We began to specialize, increasing in knowledge, and disciplines of knowledge. Technology, food production, energy sources, and population all exploded.

No one can reasonably deny that as humanity increased in number and density and began working together in ever larger groups – efficiencies were created that could never have happened if we had not joined together in larger groups. Everything improved right across the board.

Following a logical train of thought, national borders are the last remnant of our original tribalism. It actually makes sense to drop these borders, so you can kiss your cultural diversity good-bye in the future. It’ll be a soup for a while, but it will become the new normal.

Labour will move to where it is needed, fertility will appear where it is needed, food will be grown were it grows best, and energy produced/extracted from where it makes most sense to do so.

Technically – there is only one best place on earth for any one undertaking – doing each at said location on a global scale is the best that can be done if we are stuck on this planet. The ultimate efficiency that can be had on planet earth. Looking at the historical trend, life should then improve once more.

The next logical expectation would be leaving the planet.

These are just my musings based on a reasonable, logical extension of the historical trends – my preference would be about the same as yours, but I can’t see any reason that national borders will prevail. They will fall by agreement, necessity, or force eventually.

Cultural diversity is sitting on death row (IMHO).

#64 IHCTD9 on 09.09.19 at 11:07 am

#34 Gone on 09.08.19 at 8:32 pm
Globalization was a cute theory embraced by the chattering classes. It’s a dead duck. But it is great to see everything you worked a life time for collapse. Trump woke the deplorable people up, and not a minute too soon.
___

Good luck with that one. Globalism is/will continue to happen, just look at how world trade and economies have changed in the last 30 years.

Dirt cheap labour will continue to be in demand until robots can do all the work. You actually love it, you just don’t know that you do.

More Global economic and manufacturing efficiencies will bring even more of what it already has: more choice, more competition, lower prices, lower prices, and lower prices (!).

Be happy you are not crawling out of your mud hut to get your first job working in a factory for 1.00/day in some $h!thole country. If you live in the West, you benefit more than anyone from Globalization.

The West can NEVER go back to paying 5X-10X more for consumer goods and services like back in the “good old days”. It’s been way too long, lifestyles have been re-indexed up a rung or two which has now become the bar, whatever slack that existed has been taken up by the system, and is now a requirement thereof. Every advantage we have in the West now depends on globalization (because the West is broke, infertile, and expensive).

#65 NoName on 09.09.19 at 11:10 am

All fresh water frozennor.liquid acounts to total of 3%. I would like to see math and simulation what happened is we revise sea level for equal amount of that water. Anyways blast from the past… 1932

https://mobile.twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1171053440258248704

#66 AB Boxster on 09.09.19 at 11:11 am

Yes, Garth you are right.
There are no mainstream US politicians advocating open borders. None in Canada. Nor Britain, or France or any other country.

But that does not mean that open borders are not an issue.

Democrats in the US don’t advocate open borders.
They just have no intention of enforcing any border laws that the US has on the books.
And they have opposed any intelligent policy, or proposed or passed any new legislation that might solve the problem of controlling US borders.
Mostly because they just oppose Trump.

Result: Open borders

Europe’s Schengen agreement is a policy to allow freedom of movement of citizens that are EU members.

Works great for Europeans right?

Well when 2 million ‘refugees’ decided to enter Europe through Greece and other countries, and then once in Europe, had the ‘right’ through Schengen, to cross over into France or the UK, or any other country without controls, that essentially created open borders in Europe.

One of the main reasons for Brexit was the fact that to remain in the EU that Shengen must apply, and Britain could essentially not control the influx of millions of hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants.

So sure, mainstream politicians do not advocate open borders. But there are certainly open border issues throughout the world.

It’s much like saying that there is no Federal Liberal politician who advocates killing the energy industry in western Canada.

But they are happy to kill all pipelines, create legislation that will ensure there will never be another energy project ever. Or to ensure that only tankers carrying product from Alberta are banned. Or they say nothing when hundreds of thousands lose their jobs do to the exit of investment to other regions. Or they fail to defend a project in federal court, resulting in project uncertainty or delays.

But of course, there is no official policy of killing the industry.

#67 NoName on 09.09.19 at 11:35 am

I am wondering where is my lady friend crazy fox, I always enjoy reading her posts.

Here is a link to something that she will like. Note use a slider, from past to future.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants

#68 Shawn on 09.09.19 at 11:35 am

I disagree. Way too much crowding into defensive parts of the market. Sell low volatility and buy high beta. SPHB > SPLV.

Buy financials, consumer cyclicals, small caps

#69 Yukon Elvis on 09.09.19 at 11:46 am

There are no mainstream US politicians advocating open borders. None in Canada. Nor Britain, or France or any other country. Stop posting lies. – Garth
……………………

There are 7 sanctuary states is the US. How many sanctuary cities ?

This conversation is over. Go away. – Garth

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.09.19 at 12:08 pm

#63 IHCTD9 on 09.09.19 at 10:23 am
#19 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 6:05 pm
“…globalism that will ultimately overcome nationalism.”

As long as that does not create One World Labour Mobility ala Soros.
____

I don’t like it either – but you’d best get ready – well, get your kids and grand kids ready.

As humans moved from tribes to nations, everything improved. As people moved from small groups to large groups the dynamics of living changed. We began to specialize, increasing in knowledge, and disciplines of knowledge. Technology, food production, energy sources, and population all exploded.

No one can reasonably deny that as humanity increased in number and density and began working together in ever larger groups – efficiencies were created that could never have happened if we had not joined together in larger groups. Everything improved right across the board.

Following a logical train of thought, national borders are the last remnant of our original tribalism. It actually makes sense to drop these borders, so you can kiss your cultural diversity good-bye in the future. It’ll be a soup for a while, but it will become the new normal.

Labour will move to where it is needed, fertility will appear where it is needed, food will be grown were it grows best, and energy produced/extracted from where it makes most sense to do so.

Technically – there is only one best place on earth for any one undertaking – doing each at said location on a global scale is the best that can be done if we are stuck on this planet. The ultimate efficiency that can be had on planet earth. Looking at the historical trend, life should then improve once more.

The next logical expectation would be leaving the planet.

These are just my musings based on a reasonable, logical extension of the historical trends – my preference would be about the same as yours, but I can’t see any reason that national borders will prevail. They will fall by agreement, necessity, or force eventually.

Cultural diversity is sitting on death row (IMHO).
___________________
Linear thinking at its best.
Globalism as an excuse for colonialism.
Destruction of the environment a necessary result of overconsumption and so called progress.
And then on to mars.
And start over again.

#71 the one way street on 09.09.19 at 12:16 pm

Needless to say, in the world of investments, and personal estate planning don’t always listen to friends, bankers, insurance, lawyers, accountants, or mutual fund sales people. The best road to take is with a fee based advisor who can look at everything that has the knowledge and experience to do so. The modest fee is tax deductible too, and the older one gets there can be no mistakes made by others.

#72 oh bouy on 09.09.19 at 12:48 pm

@#69 Yukon Elvis on 09.09.19 at 11:46 am
There are no mainstream US politicians advocating open borders. None in Canada. Nor Britain, or France or any other country. Stop posting lies. – Garth
……………………

There are 7 sanctuary states is the US. How many sanctuary cities ?

This conversation is over. Go away. – Garth
___________________________________

Time for yukon to join howard maybe

#73 Tater on 09.09.19 at 12:49 pm

#60 Boffo Sam on 09.09.19 at 9:33 am
97% approval rating for Trump.

https://www.facebook.com/95475020353/posts/10163587351845354/

This is double Obama’s best poll days after his election.

Looks like Trump’s policies are long term . The TDS will cost the whiners big time. Wah !!!

Meanwhile Trump is winning the trade war. Chinese manufacturing tanking. All Asia is eating thier lunch and happy to do it. Looks like China’s bullying hasn’t made any friends.
——————————————
Real deep thinker here is shocked that Trumps approval rating with REPUBLICANS is higher than Obama’s approval was with everybody.

Bonus points for sharing a FB link as a source.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Notice how Obama’s approval rating was alway higher than disapproval? Not so for Trump.

#74 IHCTD9 on 09.09.19 at 1:26 pm

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.09.19 at 12:08 pm

Linear thinking at its best.
Globalism as an excuse for colonialism.
______

Global manufacturing, immigration etc is not being orchestrated by some mastermind.

That’s conspiracy thinking at its best.

Immigration is actively being sought after by the West because of its infertility.

Manufacturing is actively sent elsewhere because it is much cheaper there.

International deals for resources are common because they work great on the mutual benefit front.

There are obvious, excellent reasons why all these events are taking place.

This is the natural result of businesses and countries trying to compete and improve. I’d be more fearful of the day when costs can no longer be lowered without leaving the planet. That will be the day when everyone is on pretty much equal footing, and progress along with prosperity starts grinding to a halt.

#75 Tater on 09.09.19 at 1:44 pm

Seems to have been an issue with the Obama chart on my phone. His approval wasn’t always higher than disapproval.

But Trumps disapproval has been higher than his approval for the vast majority of his presidency

#76 jess on 09.09.19 at 2:12 pm

next time one eats avocado toast:

Mexico cartel hangs bodies from city bridge in grisly show of force
This article is more than 1 month old

Jalisco New Generation cartel claims 19 deaths in Uruapan
Drug gangs believed to be fighting for control of avocado trade

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/08/mexico-bodies-police-uruapan-drug-cartels

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/10466-cartel-war-seeks-to-control-avocado-trade-in-mexico

#77 Kootenay Hippie on 09.09.19 at 2:19 pm

How does a blog post about B&D portfolios turn into a discussion about open borders? What are you people so afraid of?

With 1.6 birth per woman, who is going to pay for the roughly 1 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities the Canadian government has?

What about economic growth? Just look at Japan. I sure would like to see the Canadian stock index keep rising in the future, and for that we need more people buying goods and services here.

#78 jess on 09.09.19 at 2:33 pm

House Democrats launching probe of Trump, Giuliani actions on Ukraine

Democrats pursuing various allegations of wrongdoing as well as setting out impeachment hearing rules
Thomson Reuters · Posted: Sep 09, 2019 1:23 PM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago

move in depth here:
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/meet-the-florida-duo-helping-giuliani-dig-dirt-for-trump-in-ukraine

#79 BillyBob on 09.09.19 at 2:49 pm

Italy is like other ancient cultures, resting on the laurels of past glories while the current infrastructure and systems crumble around them. Think places like Egypt, or the United Kingdom. Delusions of past grandeur, echoed thinly in the present. Former empires who haven’t achieved anything of note in the last several hundred years, selling their past to tourists then complaining when they come.

I’m fascinated by Dolce’s constant cheerleading of all things Italian, given that from what I understood he also holds Canadian citizenship and spent I would assume, some significant part of his life in Canada.

Basically a bandwagon Italian, in a sense how is he any more legitimate than any “latecomer” immigrant? Because he speaks the local language? That can be learned, as well as the customs. The conceit that ones identity is “in your blood” is naked tribalism at its worst.

IHCTD9 makes extremely cogent arguments as to why nationalism is doomed to fail and from a fairly worldwide perspective I think he is right on the money. Not that fearful people will let it go without an ugly fight, as we see daily now.

#80 James on 09.09.19 at 4:30 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm

6 MF on 09.07.19 at 8:58 am
#65 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 1:55 am

“The one’s in the public sector are too stupid to realize their meals are the result of a gamble…”

-Do you mean like those who serve their country in the military?

MF
……

Nice try at deflection. Not knocking the public service, not everyone has nuts of steel and take massive risks to get to enjoy the good things in life..
If it wasn’t for risk takes, enterprising gamblers and investors..
Teachers, Firemen, Cops and tax collectors would not have job..
Show some damn respect to risk takers.. With out us, you all starve..
__________________________________________
Hey Old Man you useless $%^&, The Military has more balls of steel than you could ever muster even when you were not an OLD MAN!
It takes a real man to stand up to a bullet and not hide in front of a computer screen.

#81 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 09.09.19 at 4:50 pm

From The Little Book of Synonyms:

xenophobe = nationalist = patriot = good guy

globalist = brainwashed betrayer = traitor = bad guy

#82 MF on 09.09.19 at 6:02 pm

Just read yesterday’s comments.

Yikes.

As usual IH ran with ball and scored a hat trick late in the game. Some players were ejected (Howard), wheras others fumbled the ball and lost their position permanently in the starting lineup (Dolce).

Even BillyBob scored a surprising and rare goal later on, allowing others to (temporarily) forget his normal antics of running the wrong way or scoring on his own net.

An intense game, indeed.

MF

#83 Tony on 09.09.19 at 7:09 pm

The $64,000 question is when do the central bankers unload everything?