Bye, Robot

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

During a misspent youth I played a lot of poker. My friends considered this pretty cool. I also played a lot of chess. This was considered decidedly less cool. And it was also a lot less profitable.

But regardless, both activities prepared me well for my current job, refining my abilities as a portfolio manager. From both games I learned how to be analytical, think ahead, weigh percentages and manage risk.

While I never mastered either game, I understood both well enough to conclude that a supercomputer might someday beat the best human players at chess but never at poker. The potential moves in chess are virtually unlimited, but the correct moves in critical situations are relatively finite. I figured a computer might be able to more precisely assess the possibilities at such moments and make the best move. That’s why, in 1997, I was shocked when the IBM chess supercomputer Deep Blue beat grandmaster and reigning world chess champion Garry Kasparov…but not too shocked.

Poker, meanwhile, where bluffing is such an integral part of a player’s success, was a different animal entirely. How could a computer be taught to lie correctly? And a computer would not only have to learn to bluff, which I considered a singularly human ability, but learn to read bluffs as well. And, typically, it would have to do this against several opponents at once. Therefore, with all this hidden information so integral to the game, I concluded that a computer might never master it fully.

Well, I was wrong.

Facebook’s artificial intelligence (AI) team earlier this year created a bot capable of beating the world’s best professional poker players. The AI system, named Pluribus, faced off against 12 pros and beat them decisively. It was able to bluff effectively and squeeze profits out of hands that many pros would have abandoned. One of the pros, a six-time World Series of Poker champion, conceded that “Pluribus is a very hard opponent to play against. It’s really hard to pin him down on any kind of hand.”

What’s fascinating is that this professional player referred to Pluribus as “him”, perhaps revealing a bit of sexism but also highlighting the evolution of AI—such programs are now so adept at “thinking” that we are considering them human.

Recognizing the enormous potential of AI (and its related cousin, robotics) was one reason that I highlighted the topic on this blog back in October 2017. However, I also highlighted the many risks for this niche sector, including ethical concerns (e.g., what if self-driving cars start running people over?), security concerns (e.g., data breaches, privacy violations, etc.) as well as a general lack of government oversight. The AI and robotics space was also expensive in 2017. At the time, I pointedly highlighted that our clients had no direct exposure to the sector. As it turns out, my concerns were well founded as the Global X Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ-US), the largest North American–listed ETF covering this sector, has since fallen 19% and plunged more than 30% from its early 2018 all-time highs.

Fall of the Machines: Global X Robotics and AI ETF (BOTZ-US) – 5 years

Source: Bloomberg

But the upside potential is still there. According to independent research firm International Development Corporation, global spending on AI systems across all industries, including banking, manufacturing, health care and retail, will reach US$97.9 billion in 2023, more than 2.5x the US$37.5 billion that will be spent this year. This equates to an impressive compound annual growth rate for the 2018–23 forecast period of more than 28%.

We’re often asked what investment ideas we currently have ‘bubbling under’—ideas which may eventually make their way into our model portfolios. AI and robotics are certainly a consideration, especially after the 30% pullback. However, we’re not quite there yet. To say that this sector has some bugs to work out would be an understatement. Proof? A team of robots recently played a soccer match against their scientist creators at the 2019 RoboCup in Sydney, Australia. The robots showed some potential with pattern recognition and team play, but ultimately still lost 4-1.

So, I could reiterate the multitude of investment risks (and we can now add the US-China trade war to that list), but suffice to say, if these thinking Meccanos can’t beat a geeky, uncoordinated squad of propeller heads then plenty of work still needs to be done.

Check out the breathtaking action from last year’s tournament here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KT2e4Z0u2C8. A Ronaldo–Messi clash of the titans it is not.

Finally, Donald Trump’s annual Hurricane Comedy Show is upon us as Hurricane Dorian begins to make landfall on the US east coast. Last year, Trump helpfully told us that Hurricane Florence would be “tremendously wet” and this year, in reference to the category 5 Dorian, he mused that category 5s never occur, even though three such hurricanes have occurred during his presidency alone.

But, Trump’s comments aside, it’s also that time of year for hurricanes to be featured prominently in the financial news—visit Bloomberg.com and tell me if you don’t still come across frightening satellite images of Dorian? However, aside from short-term commodity traders or investors focused on the insurance sector, hurricanes have zero lasting impact on financial markets. Below are the market returns surrounding history’s 15 costliest hurricanes:

Hurricanes always make the financial news, but they don’t actually impact markets.

Source: Bloomberg, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Turner Investments. Total return shown. Damages not adjustedfor inflation. (Click to enlarge)

The bottomline: enjoy Trump’s unintended comedy, but don’t worry about hurricanes actually affecting your portfolio.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

98 comments ↓

#1 Darryl on 09.07.19 at 7:26 am

Wow
Kinda early . Getting out ahead or Dorian?

#2 conan on 09.07.19 at 8:27 am

Is Garth going to do a hurricane show? I would watch that.

#3 Andrew on 09.07.19 at 8:33 am

How much longer will fiduciaries be able to ignore the risk adjusted returns of bitcoin before their clients start asking why they haven’t been invested in the top performing asset class of the last decade. Especially with bakkt, ledgerX and other institutional grade resources coming online.

https://twitter.com/nickszabo4/status/1167119019553411073?s=21

Ask your fiduciary their thoughts on bitcoin. See how committed they are to your wealth.

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.19 at 8:50 am

Natural disasters and wars have always benefitted the markets.
No story here.
Now let’s pray for the poor souls of the Bahamas.

#5 Big Sugar on 09.07.19 at 8:56 am

I wondered over which paragraph the lingering Trump Derangement Syndrome would rear its ugly head. TDS is like a lingering untreated case of malaria. The victim predictably falls off his chair. They can’t help it. But, and ex-poker player and money runner should have by now gained some self control.

Dorian is not Trumps fault so why mention it? Hurricanes are wet. My English elocution and Texan accent doesn’t make me a hillbilly bourgeoisie douchebag. But Trumps New York colloquial speech does?

What matters is what we in the investment business call “the dick wag”. The guy who wins has the guts to put it on the table. It’s not about the size of the schlong, it’s about what you do with it. That’s why Trumps a billionaire and the president. Trump won, on both counts, get over it.

It’s the same thing with this blogs constant boo hop about stock picking vs passive investing. My track record would stack up against any robot, because my methodology isn’t determined by what happened in the past.

#6 MF on 09.07.19 at 8:58 am

#65 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 1:55 am

“The one’s in the public sector are too stupid to realize their meals are the result of a gamble…”

-You mean like those who serve their country in the military?

MF

#7 oh bouy on 09.07.19 at 9:33 am

@What matters is what we in the investment business call “the dick wag”. The guy who wins has the guts to put it on the table. It’s not about the size of the schlong, it’s about what you do with it. That’s why Trumps a billionaire and the president. Trump won, on both counts, get over it.
———————————————
lol, trump would be no better than a used car salesman without the silver spoon he was born with.
No doubt he’d be a good one though.

#8 A role to play on 09.07.19 at 9:39 am

I don’t believe that robotics, automation, and AI in and of themselves will be areas where profits are to be made. When these technologies are integrated into product offerings, and services, with the results of lowered operational costs or greater profitability, a consequence will be that the companies that make use of these technologies will be more profitable.

An optometry chain that can incorporate AI and robotics to make diagnostics simpler, faster, and cheaper will wipe the floor with its competitors. It is to the advantage of any business to look at where it can incorporate these new technologies to become better at what they do to the point that they have a clear advantage over their competitors.

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 9:44 am

“ethical concerns (e.g., what if self-driving cars start running people over?)

++++

Well, as long as it wasn’t intentional….. robot road rage as it were.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU73kzrhWig

Clint Walker at his “best”.

#10 HBD #2 on 09.07.19 at 10:12 am

“My English elocution and Texan accent doesn’t make me a hillbilly bourgeoisie douchebag.”

Its the grammer and punktuashun that gives ya away, Clem.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 10:23 am

Hmmmm.
Off subject but perhaps Denmark should reconsider selling Greenland to the US.
So the US will be stuck with their radioactive waste clean up ?
Radioactive waste exposed by 2090?
Methinks they better recalculate.

http://www.atomicheritage.org/history/camp-century

#12 Dogman01 on 09.07.19 at 10:46 am

8 A role to play on 09.07.19 at 9:39 am

I think your perspective on Robotics will be correct. Like the Personal Computer revolution, the businesses in a position to leverage the Tech will do well but the Tech providers will be hum-drum.
Apple did well off the consumer market, not sure if Dell or IBM or any of the providers to business every really took off in relation to the revolutionary productivity they were enabling. The gains are captured by the savvy industry players when they can exploit the tool, just like human productivity, it is not like the workers as they get more productive get paid better. Look for those companies that can leverage the tech not those providing them the tech.

Regarding Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), herd mentality on display.

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.19 at 10:57 am

#8 A role to play on 09.07.19 at 9:39 am

An optometry chain that can incorporate AI and robotics to make diagnostics simpler, faster, and cheaper will wipe the floor with its competitors. It is to the advantage of any business to look at where it can incorporate these new technologies to become better at what they do to the point that they have a clear advantage over their competitors.
——–
True, to a certain point.
But soon, the competion will have the same or better technologies and the race to the bottom continues.
The goal is the replace the human touch provided by doctors and nurses.
I spent a couple of days in the hospital. Was wheeled from test to test.
Never saw my doctor.
Makes you feel like piece of meat.

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 11:05 am

Geez.
Lunenburg is directly in the Dorian path.
If you get the rare opportunity to have the Eye of the hurricane pass directly over the town.
Check it out.
I’ve seen two.
Very bizarre. Screaming wind, lashing rain ….then it stops……
Total calm for a half hour or so. You can go outside and safely check for damage and talk to neighbors. You can see blue sky during the day or stars at night in a perfect circle. Amazingly rare sight very few people get to experience.

Then back inside for more hunkering down. Screaming wind and lashing rain…from the opposite direction.

#15 El Presidente Sharpie on 09.07.19 at 11:12 am

The orange one can simply draw a new path to help you out…….. or nuke it.

but ya really gotta kiss the ring… he’s really into that or else he just whines and whines and whines….

#16 leebow on 09.07.19 at 11:13 am

Garth, may be it’s time to get into the shrimping business.

“You will never sink this boat”

#17 Dogman01 on 09.07.19 at 11:14 am

8 A role to play on 09.07.19 at 9:39 am

I think your perspective on Robotics will be correct. Like the Personal Computer revolution, the businesses in a position to leverage the Tech will do well but the Tech providers will be hum-drum.
Apple did well off the consumer market, not sure if Dell or IBM or any of the providers to business every really took off in relation to the revolutionary productivity they were enabling. The gains are captured by the savvy industry players when they can exploit the tool, just like human productivity, it is not like the workers as they get more productive get paid better. Look for those companies that can leverage the tech not those providing them the tech.

———————————————-

Actually Microsoft did really really well…..so obviously a complex network of results…as per most human systems.

#18 No Debt on 09.07.19 at 11:16 am

Stay safe Garth. Maybe Ryan will let you use the couch in his office for a night or two.

#19 Doug in Londinium on 09.07.19 at 11:16 am

Garth:
If the wind’s really blowing hard don’t get too close to windows should they shatter. Also seek the upstairs of your home. Other than that, get a drink and bag of popcorn and watch the show.

#20 Sail Away on 09.07.19 at 11:21 am

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 11:05 am

Geez.

If you get the rare opportunity to have the Eye of the hurricane pass directly over the town.

Check it out.

I’ve seen two.
Very bizarre. Screaming wind, lashing rain ….then it stops……
Total calm for a half hour or so. You can go outside and safely check for damage and talk to neighbors. You can see blue sky during the day or stars at night in a perfect circle. Amazingly rare sight very few people get to experience.

Then back inside for more hunkering down. Screaming wind and lashing rain…from the opposite direction.

———————————————-

Yes-weird experience. I had the eye of a storm pass over the sailboat in the middle of the Pacific. As you describe with the 180 degree wind change. The winds got higher as the center approached, then… nothing for an hour or so, then full sail reset, windvane recalibration for new wind direction, and off again.

Best wishes, Garth. Maybe hang out in your stone bank?

#21 Barb on 09.07.19 at 11:26 am

Head back to TO for the impact.
Dorothy and Bandit need to be safe.
You too…

#22 Damifino on 09.07.19 at 11:28 am

Here’s my AI test (“the Damifino test”, if you will):

I dislike watching advertising on TV. As a consequence, I watch few commercial broadcasts in real time. Equipment I rent from my communication provider (for which I pay plenty) allows me to do this, and I make full use of it.

Like everyone else, I fast-forward through ads to return to my regular program as fast as possible. I’ve become very adept at that.

I want to see a robot (or equivalent software) that can, based on intellectual content alone select between advertising and scheduled programming, while quickly skipping over ads in prerecorded material with better than 99% accuracy.

Also, some programs concern advertising. They include examples of ads as actual content. If I watch such a program, I understand the contextual difference and do not skip over those ads. If I can do this, any AI program worth it’s salt should be able to do the same.

#23 Patrick on 09.07.19 at 11:28 am

Yikes. Take care Garth!

#24 mike from mtl on 09.07.19 at 11:30 am

Innovations typically don’t happen at large, slow, publicly traded corps. Exceptions are ones that have massive r&d for example 3M. It’s one thing to have a great idea, quite another to take it off the ground.

Though no matter how amazing the product / idea, it does take resources ($$$ and power) to make it a reality at scale and profitable. Rather than simply faking it by burning VC money.

#25 gfd on 09.07.19 at 11:35 am

Earlier this week Trudeau privately met with The Toronto Star’s editorial board and did a campaign stop in Bolton Ontario. The question is, what possible “private business” could Justin have with the Toronto Star’s editorial board? I cannot conceive of any that would not be a conflict of interest. If it is a government-related business meeting, then it is an attempt to conceal activities for which he is accountable to Canadians.

Apparently it’s none of our business. I’m betting the reason they did not disclose the Bolton stop is a reaction to the embarrassment of the nightly news showing footage of protesters showing up at recent appearances; so maybe the rule is to not publish such itinerary items.

Nora Maddock’s comment. “The Toronto Star gets paid $115,000.00 PER week to spread the Trudeau Unifor Liberal NDP Greens PPC propaganda and it is being paid out of the $650 million taxpayers money Trudeau used to buy out the media and then he bragged about it, people.”

#26 Doug Rowat on 09.07.19 at 11:39 am

#5 Big Sugar on 09.07.19 at 8:56 am

I wondered over which paragraph the lingering Trump Derangement Syndrome would rear its ugly head. TDS is like a lingering untreated case of malaria. The victim predictably falls off his chair. They can’t help it. But, and ex-poker player and money runner should have by now gained some self control.

Dorian is not Trumps fault so why mention it?

Because I’m writing the blog and I find Trump hilarious. Lighten up, Tex.

–Doug

#27 Yukon Elvis on 09.07.19 at 11:55 am

I survived Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. I was in the Central Visayas region of the PI, recorded winds were 315 kph in some places. Palm trees bent to 45 degrees, some uprooted, roofs flying by, horizontal rain. Was in a 3 story concrete building with barred windows so I was ok. Had stocked up with candles, batteries, food, water, beer, books, etc. Took a few days for power to be restored and flood water to drain away. Six thousand reported deaths. Nasty experience but fascinating to watch.

#28 Sail Away on 09.07.19 at 12:10 pm

Your table could indicate that major hurricanes are a flashing red BUY signal.

#29 T on 09.07.19 at 12:53 pm

#3 Andrew on 09.07.19 at 8:33 am

How much longer will fiduciaries be able to ignore the risk adjusted returns of bitcoin before their clients start asking why they haven’t been invested in the top performing asset class of the last decade. Especially with bakkt, ledgerX and other institutional grade resources coming online.

https://twitter.com/nickszabo4/status/1167119019553411073?s=21

Ask your fiduciary their thoughts on bitcoin. See how committed they are to your wealth.

——–

Hahahaha! Asset class, Bitcoin, hahahaha. Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

#30 NoName on 09.07.19 at 12:54 pm

Yea but as games were played deep blue was being manually updated with strategies, especially for last game. If update wasnt added deep blue would loose.

I remember beating chessmaster2000 can’t remember on what Schneider or c64, once only, highlight of my chess skills.

I wonder how much more powerful is current chess engine now vs deep blue back then.

In a most recent video I watch with Kasparov he is steel uneasy with 97 match.

What I would like to see blue playing Anand and Magnus, but without blue being updated in a real time and cut of the internet.

#31 Internet on 09.07.19 at 12:59 pm

Even with a power outage there are several ways to obtain the internet. This includes a server problem, because one can simply adjust the settings. Just switch the server to the free high speed public service, and your back in business again.

#32 TRUMP2020 on 09.07.19 at 1:35 pm

QUESTION STILL REMAINS??

CAN WE use nuclear bombs to eradicate the next hurricane???

Or maybe send a flying robot into the eye-of-the-storm to stop the Hurricane in its tracks??

#33 Marco on 09.07.19 at 1:41 pm

I somehow believe that self-driving truck wouldn’t kill Broncos, because it is design better than truck driving training in Canada

#34 Marco on 09.07.19 at 1:46 pm

And yes, Trump is absolutely guilty of hurricanes.
They are related. Trump is a hurricane.

#35 The Real TRUTH on 09.07.19 at 2:32 pm

ARE we serious here??

This topic isn’t even worth a single breath.

Is that the best you can do?

Or maybe you can correlate my pinky-toe nail growth to the Horizons reggae music ETF.

#36 Ustabe on 09.07.19 at 2:37 pm

A Trump Apologist posted:
I wondered over which paragraph the lingering Trump Derangement Syndrome would rear its ugly head. TDS is like a lingering untreated case of malaria.

To which I reply:

“He’s deteriorating in plain sight,” one Republican strategist who is in frequent contact with the White House told Insider on Friday.

But one person who was close to Trump’s legal team during the Russia investigation told Insider his public statements were “nothing compared to what he’s like behind closed doors.”

“He’s like a bull seeing red,” this person added. “There’s just no getting through to him, and you can kiss your plans for the day goodbye because you’re basically stuck looking after a 4-year-old now.”

Just C&P any of the above into Google or Bing to see the entire article

#37 ShawnG in TO on 09.07.19 at 2:38 pm

oh sht. Dorian is now a cat 2. stay safe !

#38 GOLDENBOY on 09.07.19 at 3:14 pm

Hey, Sailaway. Could you possibly stay in the eye for an extended period of time while sailing or would it be better to just get through it.

#39 Doug Rowat on 09.07.19 at 3:17 pm

#30 NoName on 09.07.19 at 12:54 pm

Yea but as games were played deep blue was being manually updated with strategies, especially for last game. If update wasnt added deep blue would loose.

What I would like to see blue playing Anand and Magnus, but without blue being updated in a real time and cut of the internet.

Magnus Carlsen has gone on the record as saying that it’s Kasparov’s “own fault” that he lost the match against Deep Blue because he didn’t play his best.

Magnus notes that one game in particular could have been easily played to a draw but Kasparov conceded it.

Ah, what might have been, but a loss is still a loss.

–Doug

#40 Stan Brooks on 09.07.19 at 3:45 pm

That ETF has very little to do with AI.
FB, Amazon, Google have everything to do with it.

As I stated countless times (and was laughed at) in 10-15 years, maybe sooner ALL jobs will be automated.

People will become useless debt slaves and will be stripped of their assets/ensured by current monetary policies that boost cost of life while ensuring income is capped.

Proud homeowners in the suburbs will end up living in high crime ghettos. Try growing food in that 2000 square feet backyard with nasty weather.

If you don’t own farmland, you own nothing.

Government services will be reduced to GMO food, base income and minimum health care/decent ‘dispatch from this world’ services.

The very term ‘job’ will disappear.
That is an optimistic scenario by the way.

#41 The Eye on 09.07.19 at 3:46 pm

This is offshore of target area, and heading toward Halifax according to latest update from Windy.

#42 Yanniel on 09.07.19 at 3:47 pm

Good luck with mother nature Garth.

Yahoo. What a day. Exciting. – Garth

#43 Alberta Ed on 09.07.19 at 4:02 pm

Hope the vault is well-stocked with emergency supplies: H2O, Scotch, dog food, etc.

Yes, the three food groups. – Garth

#44 Yanniel on 09.07.19 at 4:06 pm

#42 Yanniel on 09.07.19 at 3:47 pm
Good luck with mother nature Garth.

Yahoo. What a day. Exciting. – Garth

Back in 2004 hurricane Charlie passed over my home town in Cuba. The eye literally passed over my house. I was holding my grandma. She was very scared of the sound of the wind and the flying objects hitting everywhere. My mother hid under the bed with her 3 dogs.

I was scared but very excited too. The hurricane passed fast. Only 2h intense hours and it was gone.

In the morning the town resembled WW2 bombarded village.

Electricity was gone for 15 days. Groceries were scarce.

Lots of people lost all.

Now, what’s important is to protect life. Don’t underestimate cyclones.

Good luck!

#45 Sail away on 09.07.19 at 4:09 pm

#38 GOLDENBOY on 09.07.19 at 3:14 pm

Hey, Sailaway. Could you possibly stay in the eye for an extended period of time while sailing or would it be better to just get through it.

————————————-

It’s not possible since the eye is moving and you have no idea which direction. The only thing to do is quarter downwind toward the outside- sometimes for days.

#46 Tim on 09.07.19 at 4:14 pm

Garth and Dorothy, I hope you and your place come through OK. A downside of living close to the Atlantic…

#47 Simon on 09.07.19 at 4:20 pm

Twitter Search dorian and lunenburg

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=dorian%20lunenburg&src=typd&lang=en

Webcam

https://www.novascotiawebcams.com/en/webcams/lunenburg-harbour/

#48 Winds Far Reaching on 09.07.19 at 4:22 pm

The roof of a 50 unit apartment building in Halifax blew off, and tenants were evacuated. Those with no hydro power in Nova Scotia now at 237,000.

#49 oh bouy on 09.07.19 at 4:24 pm

@#40 Stan Brooks on 09.07.19 at 3:45 pm
That ETF has very little to do with AI.
FB, Amazon, Google have everything to do with it.

As I stated countless times (and was laughed at) in 10-15 years, maybe sooner ALL jobs will be automated.

People will become useless debt slaves and will be stripped of their assets/ensured by current monetary policies that boost cost of life while ensuring income is capped.

Proud homeowners in the suburbs will end up living in high crime ghettos. Try growing food in that 2000 square feet backyard with nasty weather.

If you don’t own farmland, you own nothing.

Government services will be reduced to GMO food, base income and minimum health care/decent ‘dispatch from this world’ services.

The very term ‘job’ will disappear.
That is an optimistic scenario by the way.
__________________________________

you have the beginnings of a fantastic dystopian novel.
maybe thats your calling – writer of fiction.

#50 Penny Henny on 09.07.19 at 4:34 pm

#40 Stan Brooks on 09.07.19 at 3:45 pm
That ETF has very little to do with AI.
FB, Amazon, Google have everything to do with it.

As I stated countless times (and was laughed at) in 10-15 years, maybe sooner ALL jobs will be automated.

People will become useless debt slaves and will be stripped of their assets/ensured by current monetary policies that boost cost of life while ensuring income is capped.

Proud homeowners in the suburbs will end up living in high crime ghettos. Try growing food in that 2000 square feet backyard with nasty weather.

If you don’t own farmland, you own nothing.

Government services will be reduced to GMO food, base income and minimum health care/decent ‘dispatch from this world’ services.

The very term ‘job’ will disappear.
That is an optimistic scenario by the way.

/////////////////

Oh Stanley, always the optimist.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 4:42 pm

@#48 Winds far reaching
“The roof of a 50 unit apartment building in Halifax blew off, ”
++++

The video of the collapsing crane was far more exciting.

https://twitter.com/CBCNS/status/1170430734831706114

#52 Grunt on 09.07.19 at 4:43 pm

Be careful Garth. I don’t know how far above sea level you are or what the projected storm surge will be. I’m assuming you’re in the century BMO place? If you have time watch some 2011 Japanese tsunami on YouTube. Don’t get caught in the car. Houses cars get washed away. Concrete high-rises are okay. RememberJapan got the earthquake you’ll get the wind. Perhaps the sky will turn purple afterwards like Florida?

The previous awful president understood the need to get on with China and the environment (passed the first Great Lakes clean up bill). China, a one party country electrifying infrastructure like rail & buses ahead of many other regions. America’s a democracy and ends up with a coal-burning autocrat not interested in saving giant pandas or endangered species. Still at least it’s not 36/37 years of Franco or Mugabe. Imagine that with some of our tyrants…

#53 Lead Paint on 09.07.19 at 4:56 pm

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.19 at 8:50 am

Pray if you want but better yet, let’s donate.

https://donate.redcross.ca/page/47946/donate/1?locale=en-CA

#54 mark on 09.07.19 at 5:53 pm

All the best!

#55 Nonplused on 09.07.19 at 6:25 pm

Assuming those robots were not remote control and were working autonomously then the technology being displayed here is actually pretty interesting and could have a number of applications, particularly in the military and crowd control. Imagine a wall of these things, only bigger and armed with tear gas and stun guns, facing down a crowd of protesters and you see where I am going with it.

I guess with Trump’s category 5 comments it is left to the reader to decide whether he was unaware that there have been category 5 hurricanes or that he meant it was extremely rare for a category 5 to make land as a category 5. “None” is not technically correct, but a cat 5 making land as a cat 5 is a big deal. The devastation in the Bahamas is pretty bad, with something like 70,000 people homeless and the body count at 43 and rising. If that thing had hit a more populated area as a cat 5 the results would have been quite bad. So even though Trump was not technically correct, his main point was to try and persuade people to get the heck out of the way. Probably not a bad time to use exaggeration and play loose with the facts. It would have been worse to see him downplaying the possible impacts of the storm.

#56 BillyBob on 09.07.19 at 6:26 pm

I’m currently inflight working a trip from an unnamed European city to JFK, which has us skirting the edge of Dorian or its remnants.

Current winds at 36,000 feet showing 285 degrees at 178kts. That’s over 200 mph, about 330 km/h. We’re taking it in the teeth so slow going (for a Dreamliner) but fortunately the turbulence so far has been moderate at worst. Looking forward to a drink or two in Manhattan.

Be safe out there.

#57 LP on 09.07.19 at 6:56 pm

Hurricane memories

I was a little girl when hurricane hazel passed near toronto. My dad was on the metro toronto police force, a constable, and like all members of the force, was “all hands on deck”, all leaves canceled.

Dad couldn’t swim a stroke and was terrified of water and of drowning at the best of times. My sharpest memory is of him coming by home for dry clothes. He sat at the kitchen table, head down weeping. He was exhausted from 48 hours of no sleep, little food, and the stress of constant fear, perhaps as much for himself as for us his family that he couldn’t stay near to protect.

#58 Phylis on 09.07.19 at 7:00 pm

Where is Stan’s orderly? Did the ford cuts get him?

#59 Heating on 09.07.19 at 7:02 pm

During a power outage a bit of heating might be needed. Nothing better than a vintage Perfection smokeless heater #525 from the 1920’s with millions manufactured. This one has parts and wick assemblies available. They are not large, but throw off a lot of heat with a little window to watch it burning using kerosene for fuel. The flames are adjustable, and cooked my breakfast on the top of it too.

#60 joe on 09.07.19 at 7:23 pm

Note to Doug Rowat:

President Trump is richer and more successful than a childish minuscule “Portfolio Manager”.

#61 MF on 09.07.19 at 7:34 pm

#57 LP on 09.07.19 at 6:56 pm

My mom was a little girl when Hazel hit Toronto. She says it was the most frigthening weather she has ever seen.

Hope Garth is doing alright.

MF

#62 neal on 09.07.19 at 7:40 pm

Stay safe Garth….

#63 acdel on 09.07.19 at 7:56 pm

Great accomplishment for those who created these systems, clap,clap,clap, so now what?? Are you asking us to invest in these companies that will take away our jobs and slowly turn us into them. Come on people, this is serious s*hit that will impact all generations extremely hard. No thanks! Rather hug a human then what ever comes next!

#64 NoName on 09.07.19 at 7:59 pm

@DR

Here it is, he is promoting a book, and gives few insights from 97 match. Here is a link, fast forward to 5:30 and watch next few minutes, otherwise 40min long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhkTHkIZJEc

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.19 at 8:14 pm

@#56BillyBob

Hey!
What the ‘H” “E” doublehockeysticks you doing sending emails from the cockpit during a hurricane?

Or is the Robot flying the plane?

#66 Stan Brooks for PM on 09.07.19 at 8:30 pm

#40 Stan Brooks on 09.07.19 at 3:45 pm

Where is your farm located Stan? Why aren’t you running for office? This country sadly needs your wise and sagacious thoughts!

#67 In Garth We Trust on 09.07.19 at 8:32 pm

Hope you are holding up well in the bunker Garth! If you have to send out an SOS, I am sure a number of us grateful blog dogs will bail you out…. We are thinking of you and the missus and of course Bandit! Godspeed!

#68 acdel on 09.07.19 at 9:07 pm

Hey fellow Canadians; a great big clap to Bianca Andreescu; she did it; she beat the best in tennis with class; so proud of her!

#69 S.Bby on 09.07.19 at 9:13 pm

Quantitative Trading involves the use of computer algorithms and programs based on simple or complex mathematical models to identify and capitalize on available trading opportunities. At the back end, quant trading also involves research work on historical data with an aim to identify profit opportunities.

#70 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 9:20 pm

At the swim up bar at Harras in Funner California, on TV wow Halifax is getting hammered by Dorian. My next Zamboka dedicated to Nova Scotia. Stay safe dogs….

#71 S.Bby on 09.07.19 at 9:31 pm

Trump said he can detonate a nuclear bomb into a hurricane to stop it. Did someone call him about this one yet ?

#72 MF on 09.07.19 at 10:05 pm

#49 oh bouy on 09.07.19 at 4:24 pm

“you have the beginnings of a fantastic dystopian novel.
maybe thats your calling – writer of fiction.”

-Maybe?

MF

#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm

6 MF on 09.07.19 at 8:58 am
#65 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 1:55 am

“The one’s in the public sector are too stupid to realize their meals are the result of a gamble…”

-Do you mean like those who serve their country in the military?

MF
……

Nice try at deflection. Not knocking the public service, not everyone has nuts of steel and take massive risks to get to enjoy the good things in life..

If it wasn’t for risk takes, enterprising gamblers and investors..

Teachers, Firemen, Cops and tax collectors would not have job..

Show some damn respect to risk takers.. With out us, you all starve..

#74 Oh Canada, I weep. on 09.08.19 at 12:05 am

Civil Servant compensation is out of control.

https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/heres-how-much-money-you-have-to-earn-to-be-considered-rich-in-canada

Small wonder they’re getting away with murder when Canadians are focused on Trump instead of the massive lying propaganda campaign to reelect The Only PM in history to be found guilty of criminal acts multiple times !

For me the groping incident was proof positive . But, you supported him through that. If he’d sexually attacked my daughter the story would have taken another direction. A civil action would have been rammed so far up his ass he’d have jumped bail and run back to Daddy in Cuba.

Instead you agreed that it was our fault as a country that he would do this? Weak Canadians get the government they deserve. When you election a criminal leader then you get criminal actions.

#75 The Future on 09.08.19 at 12:11 am

Will advances in A.I make financial advisors superfluous? After all, you are just taking in new data if all sorts, and applying rules to decide what this might mean for investments. Rules and pattern finding in big data, in other words, exactly the thing for AI.

#76 Hurry Cane on 09.08.19 at 12:13 am

“I located directly in the path of Hurricane Dorian.”

Talking about greater fools, how could that happen, with all the advance alerts?

#77 Spectacle on 09.08.19 at 12:52 am

Doug,

I thought this was a great blog entry !

Storms, youth strategy, AI and tech, people commuting across the bridge /texting/ on self drive/ while their Uber passenger takes a photo !
Thank you.

Sir Turner, be well, enjoy the Storm with your loved ones Safe as always. Looking forward to the blog update.

Ps: love a great storm myself, but they are pretty weak on west coast.

#78 Al on 09.08.19 at 1:12 am

“He’s like a bull seeing red,” this person added. “There’s just no getting through to him, and you can kiss your plans for the day goodbye because you’re basically stuck looking after a 4-year-old now.”

Too which the the fans say “fake news! Anecdotal! Killary! Obama was worse! Master negotiator! “

#79 Dolce Vita on 09.08.19 at 1:21 am

I liked the AI examples. There’s a place for this technology for certain.

It will take over everyday repetitive decisions and allow workers the time to think, dream up new ideas and/or work on one-off difficult tasks. AI will free up inventiveness for certain.

Still, AI can’t do “lateral thinking” (well it can, but most of what I have read is that it spews out garbage, you still need a human to decide what the hidden nuggets are or not in the end) and it’s ONLY as smart as its Programmers .

There is always someone on the IQ + EQ scale that is more clever.

Hopefully, that person is on the AI Programmer teams and honest.

#80 Smoking Man on 09.08.19 at 2:44 am

DELETED

#81 conan on 09.08.19 at 8:40 am

RE #74 Oh Canada, I weep. on 09.08.19 at 12:05 am

Like living in 1984 with this version of the Conservatives.
Canada is finished if they get back into government.

Doubt it will happen. NDP and Green support is soft in the Blue vs Red ridings.

#82 Doug Rowat on 09.08.19 at 8:52 am

#75 The Future on 09.08.19 at 12:11 am

Will advances in A.I make financial advisors superfluous?

Portfolio managers maybe, but not financial advisors. Financial advisors need to provide reassurance and sound, client-specific advice often during times of crisis (usually market but sometimes personal). Knowing as a client that you’re speaking to a person you trust who absolutely has your best interests at heart can make all the difference in avoiding mistaken and emotional investment decisions.

And besides, what’s the creepy answer going to look like when a client asks a computer how it spent its summer?

–Doug

#83 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.08.19 at 9:21 am

#61 MF on 09.07.19 at 7:34 pm sez:

My mom was a little girl when Hazel hit Toronto. She says it was the most frigthening weather she has ever seen.

Hope Garth is doing alright.
================================

That must have been one powerful storm to make it all the way to the Centre of the Universe.

MF

#84 oh bouy on 09.08.19 at 9:23 am

@#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm
6 MF on 09.07.19 at 8:58 am
#65 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 1:55 am

“The one’s in the public sector are too stupid to realize their meals are the result of a gamble…”

-Do you mean like those who serve their country in the military?

MF
……

Nice try at deflection. Not knocking the public service, not everyone has nuts of steel and take massive risks to get to enjoy the good things in life..

If it wasn’t for risk takes, enterprising gamblers and investors..

Teachers, Firemen, Cops and tax collectors would not have job..

Show some damn respect to risk takers.. With out us, you all starve..
_______________________

sm you’re closer to a village idiot than risk taker.

#85 Millennial Realist on 09.08.19 at 9:30 am

The fear that self-driving cars might kill people is purely irrational.

Yes, there will be deaths and injuries due to various types of errors in the system.

But these will be a tiny fraction of the deaths caused by the stupidity and distraction of regular human drivers. Millions of lives will be saved in just the first decade.

BTW, this is a good time to start unloading any insurance stocks you might possess. The motor vehicle insurance industry will be globally disrupted with self-driving vehicles. The claim rates will be so low that profits will evaporate.

Only Paleo Boomers will be insisting on driving their own cars by 2030, and even with a perfect driving record they will be paying at least $10,000 to $20,000 a year in insurance costs for the privilege.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.19 at 10:45 am

Hmmm
Who needs a mortgage in Vancouver’s toney Shaughnessy district at 12% ?

Subprime repos accellerating ?

https://openhousing.ca/2019/09/07/subprime-mortgage-lender-forecloses-on-women-who-amassed-westside-properties/

#87 Boffo Sam on 09.08.19 at 10:55 am

Trump Hate Glue Sniffer buying bonds. Hah !!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/07/parents-tell-you-to-invest-in-bonds-they-had-no-idea-what-was-coming.html

Wouldn’t Trudeau have called an election by now if the numbers were going his way? He’d want to ride the momentum and deride his opponents , right? He’s a gloating glory pig, right? So why are the Liberals distancing themselves from Trudeau? Could it be that Trudeau is being chased out of town along what should be his victory tour?

Scheer is disappointing sure, but Butts can’t be celebrating with Trudeau’s head in his lap. Poor Sophie, she’s abusing the elections act by promoting her husband as normal. Hah!! Would a winner be need to prove he really is normal, promise. This is in spite if all the very weird crap he’s laid on us, Canada is in no mood to forgive our Little Potato it would seem.

Buy stocks. Trump’s a god. I’m rich. It’s you that might have a problem.

#88 Sail Away on 09.08.19 at 11:23 am

#78 Al on 09.08.19 at 1:12 am

“He’s like a bull seeing red,” this person added. “There’s just no getting through to him, and you can kiss your plans for the day goodbye because you’re basically stuck looking after a 4-year-old now.”

Too which the the fans say “fake news! Anecdotal! Killary! Obama was worse! Master negotiator! “

—————————————–

Not a fan, but I look to the sources of the quotes and see:

Trump aides and confidantes
One Republican strategist
Trump’s advisers
One former White House official
A person who was close to Trump’s legal team
Etc…

To break it down in terms you can understand, these unnamed sources have the same legitimacy as Mickey Mouse, Rocketman, Captain America, Peter Pan and Tinkerbelle.

You do realize that anyone can write anything, right?

#89 Yanniel on 09.08.19 at 11:40 am

#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm

“Show some damn respect to risk takers.. With out us, you all starve..”

Hunger (and necessity in general) has a way to turn the most risk averse into a risk taker. Risk takers are born out of necessity in many cases (not just because they were born so).

On a tangent: are you dry Garth? How’s the town? How are you and your loved ones?

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.19 at 12:02 pm

@#85 Millenial Surrealist
“……and even with a perfect driving record they will be paying at least $10,000 to $20,000 a year in insurance costs for the privilege…..”
+++++

Move to BC and experience govt car insurance.
Its almost that bad now……

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.08.19 at 12:04 pm

@#83 Bytor re Hazel
“That must have been one powerful storm to make it all the way to the Centre of the Universe.”

++++
Scientists believe at the center of the universe (toronto) there is a massive black hole ……

#92 MF on 09.08.19 at 12:15 pm

#83 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.08.19 at 9:21 am

How many times has it happened since?

MF

#93 LP on 09.08.19 at 12:15 pm

Bytor you can google Hurricane Hazel, early 1950s. The town of Woodbridge was particularly hard hit as was the city of Galt. Toronto, while hit hard, didn’t suffer as much as those two communities.

#94 MF on 09.08.19 at 12:19 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 09.07.19 at 11:30 pm

Firefighters, police, and military personelle risk their lives all the time.

Without security and safety risk taking businesses would not be able to survive.

MF

#95 Sail Away on 09.08.19 at 12:20 pm

#83 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.08.19 at 9:21 am
#61 MF on 09.07.19 at 7:34 pm sez:

My mom was a little girl when Hazel hit Toronto. She says it was the most frigthening weather she has ever s

================================

That must have been one powerful storm to make it all the way to the Centre of the Universe.

—————————–

Haha- best comment of the day!

MF gets owned

#96 Damifino on 09.08.19 at 1:39 pm

#81 conan

Like living in 1984 with this version of the Conservatives. Canada is finished if they get back into government.
————————————-

That’s almost exactly my thoughts about the current version of the Liberals. We have much in common.

Both fatalists, it seems.

#97 Gravy Train on 09.08.19 at 2:47 pm

Item on bucket list: Pass through eye of a hurricane. Check! :P

#98 Lolo on 09.08.19 at 3:20 pm

Sorry. Garth. My previous post contained an error.
My portfolio balance currently is 70% fixed income and 30% equities and REITs. Not annuities. My mistake.