Big news

And the Comedy Trophy goes to…
Ashley Smith.  The comely boss (can I still say that?) of the Vancouver Real Estate Board is a big social media phenom, being voted the No.2 agent in all of YVRland by her many online groupies. Professionally, the talented A says she is “passionate about creating and sharing a story that moves buyers to pay top dollar for strategically-marketed properties.”

Well, as mentioned, these days she serves as president of the 14,000-member Audi Brigade, which just released the latest stats for August. Yup, sales were ahead (by 15%) of last year’s disastrous month, but still fell 9% below the 10-year average. The real news: prices have now dropped for 15 consecutive months (ouch), taking the frankenumber benchmark price from $1.1 million down to $993,300. Yes, that’s still an obscene amount to live in a city where there’s a speculation tax, an empty houses tax, uber property taxes and roving gangs of jealous greenies, but it’s a year/year plop of 8.3%.

  Meanwhile listings have jumped 13% in the same period. Supply up, demand tepid, prices falling. And BC still has a government that hates homeowners and is trying to engineer a property collapse (and doing fairly well).

But Ashley’s a trooper. She tosses her tawny mane and lets the Dippers have it. “These changes are creating more balanced market conditions,” she says. It never rains on the Internet.

Close, but no cigar…
As predicted on this pathetic but prophetic blog, the central did not diddle with rates this week. No change. Steady as she goes at 1.75%, even though the Fed nipped its rate a number of weeks ago, as have CBs in a half-dozen countries, thanks to the Trumpian trade wars.

Howcum? Simple. We don’t need it. The economy’s basically chugging along with slightly higher wages, fair job growth and low inflation. The dollar at 75 cents is stimulative for our trade, and the big bond market yield plunge has dragged consumer loans back into the ditch. As mentioned here, five-year mortgage money is out there for about 2.5%, and has dropped in price almost a full 1% in 2019. That’s yuge. And it’s having an impact on sales (see above, plus in the GTA), as well as consumer confidence (known on this site as house horniness).

And, finally, there’s no recession evidence except in the media. Sure, a slowdown will eventually come, but it’s not here. It’s not close. It’s not even a whiff on the breeze. So why should the central bank throw stimulus around when it’s not required? That is better saved for days to come.

Having said that, expect a quarter point drop at the end of October. Maybe. Depends on the trade wars, and there would be a lot of drama over the next eight weeks.

How to fool a moister…
Just tell her that you’ll pay part of her mortgage and give the program a fancy name, like the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive. Hey, “incentive,” that’s a good Millennial word – inducement, stimulus, motivation, collaborative, encouraging. It’s like Justin really, really wants you to get a mortgage and become chained to a 450-foot condo with strata fees and property taxes. So it must be good. Why would you get an incentive otherwise?

The program started this week and is Canada’s first foray into a shared-equity mortgage world. The idea is simple – the federal government will take over 5% or 10% of your mortgage (resale vs new build) and use tax dollars to subsidize the moister loan. That, of course, is a terrible idea since taxes are supposed to work for the common good, not put Destiny into a condo she could occupy for half the cost as a renter.

And the process is byzantine. Here’s how veteran mortgage dude Rob McLister describes it:

o Apply (once they add the application to this website)
Your closing date must be after October 31, 2019
o Give the completed form to your mortgage broker or lender
o Wait for approval
“Approval for the FTHBI happens concurrently with mortgage loan insurance approval,” CMHC says. “We anticipate that the process, including timing, will be unchanged from what currently occurs with mortgage / mortgage loan insurance approval.”
“The lender will receive the approval and confirm to the borrower that the Incentive is approved.”
o Notify your lawyer or notary that you’re using the FTHBI
Don’t be surprised if your lawyer mutters something unsavoury under their breath about having to learn a new down payment process
o “The homebuyers’ lender will be providing instructions to the homebuyers’ lawyer/notary to ensure the incentive is funded.”
o “…Homebuyers are asked to contact 1.833.974.0963 to activate their FTHBI payment and provide the name of the lawyer/notary,” CMHC adds
o Before closing, the lawyer/notary requests incentive funds from the FTHBI administrator
o The administrator sends the incentive funds to your lawyer/notary and the mortgage is closed

Besides bureaucracy (and all that cost) the big problem is the inherent uselessness of this in the hipster hotspots of 416 and Van. The maximum loan amount can only be four times qualifying income, which tops out at $120,000. Besides, people with that cash flow can qualify for a bigger mortgage without using the FTHBI. Finally, mortgage companies hate it because of the overhead involved, and CMHC will lose money on the program unless Destiny’s condo inflates in value and she owns it for 25 years before selling.

Is this what government should be doing?

99 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 09.04.19 at 4:37 pm

The government should be doing something when locals can’t get into UBC because it is flooded with foreign students who don’t pay taxes…the government should be doing something when it cost over 2 grand to rent a crappy one bedroom because they encouraged developers to build condos that were marketed to overseas investors as a place to park their money instead of building rental units. The government should do something becuase they allow people who don’t pay taxes here to buy real astate so it now costs a million dollars to buy a crappy house in a damp city with horrendous traffic and shoddy infrastructure. Yes, the government is starting to take small measures that have made a minor dent in prices but we still have almost zero percent vacancy, yet speculators are sitting on empty condos and housing is still unafordable. WHen they ban foreign ownership is when things will start to chage for the better.

#2 LeoK on 09.04.19 at 4:37 pm

Hell No!

…and first. :P

#3 n1tro on 09.04.19 at 4:42 pm

yes. If they want to have a chance to be voted back in.

#4 gk on 09.04.19 at 4:42 pm

first

#5 Larry B on 09.04.19 at 4:44 pm

But will the government take part of the lose if you have to sell for less than you paid OR is the minimum the government is going to get back is the amount they forwarded to you? Does selling costs effect to adjusted cost base on disposition?

NEVER get into bed with the government

Garth rule #76

#6 yvr_lurker on 09.04.19 at 4:50 pm

As I see it (and have said many times), the year-to-year price declines in YVR are a good sign that the speculators, flippers, and offshore buyers have been largely driven from the market. Long-term, if this trend continues, our local kids will be able to afford to live in YVR (of course only if they have a decent salary) and can have the same chances that I had years ago. We own a paid-off place on the west side of YVR and I don’t care if it is decreasing in value from the absurd year-to-year increases that were going on in 2016 etc. Bring it on.

#7 Yukon Elvis on 09.04.19 at 5:04 pm

Interesting if true. Check out point #5 : Will our tax dollars subsidize non citizens ?

Who qualifies to use the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive program?

1.At least one purchaser must be a first-time home buyer
2.Must not have owned a home during the last four years
3.People who have gone through a marital breakdown or separation (even if they have owned a home within the last four years)
4.Household income cannot exceed $120,000 per year

5.Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or non-permanent residents who are legally authorized to work in Canada

6.The maximum mortgage amount can be up to four times the amount of your annual income. If your income is $100,000, the maximum mortgage amount will be $400,000 so your purchase price will be $400,000 plus your down payment.

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-264834-902-.htm#264834

They have TFSAs, RRSPs and pay income taxes. How is that different from you? – Garth

#8 Brian Ripley on 09.04.19 at 5:09 pm

On my Vancouver chart (August data)
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Total Res-Listings down 28% from JUN 2012 high
Total Res-Sales down 57% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 17%
Current Months of Inventory = 6

Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 13.0% from SEP 2017 Peak
Up 92% in last 10 years

Vancouver Town House Price
Down 10.3% from JUN 2018 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 55% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Townhouses

Vancouver Condo Price
Down 7.1% from JUN 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 46% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.2 Condos

Drip, drip, drip

#9 Smartalox on 09.04.19 at 5:20 pm

Yes, the government should do it to stimulate home construction in lower population centers where housing stock is seriously dilapidated; because foreign speculators don’t shower cash on Flin Flon or Happy ValleyGoose Bay, or Elliot lake.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.19 at 5:24 pm

@#1 Dave
” is when things will start to change for the better….”
++++

I dont think Hell is freezing over anytime soon….
Global warming and all that…..

#11 paul on 09.04.19 at 5:25 pm

DELETED

#12 PastThePeak on 09.04.19 at 5:27 pm

#129 Post on 09.04.19 at 10:53 am
Of course not. There is no valid comparison with CDOs. – Garth
———————
What I take from the article is that ETF’s and other passive investments are not as liquid as many believe. If the trillions of dollars invested, all head for the exits at similar times, there isn’t sufficient volume and therefore the price will crash?

Nope. Mainstream ETFs are completely liquid, negotiable, openly-traded securities. A groundless fear. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The article uses some misleading language (comparing to CDOs when they are not actually implying ETFs are a similar product) and the posters’ interpretations are not what I read.

The basic premise of the article is that with passive investing now greater than 50% of the market (index funds and ETFs, pensions with similar approach,…), it may be inflating the equity market because as the contributions continue to flow in the underlying equities are always purchased, regardless of what the fundamentals (economic or individual company) might be. Being greater than 50%, the “active investing side” no longer has the dominant influence. The market is more one-sided => always long.

An interesting thought – don’t know how much of an impact it really has…

The same logic provides a powerful argument for market stability. – Garth

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.19 at 5:31 pm

@#149 Don Juan
“walking through +15 areas in shirtsleeves with blue skies streaming through and reflecting off the glass towers.”
++++

Ahhhh yes.
The +15 elevated pedestrian “hamster tubes” in downtown cowtown.

They were kinda different.

Mind you.
To hell with US Navy SEALS
The toughest hombres on the planet are bicycle couriers riding in Calgary at -40cel…..

#14 Remembrancer on 09.04.19 at 5:31 pm

#1 Dave on 09.04.19 at 4:37 pm
The government should be doing something when locals can’t get into UBC because it is flooded with foreign students who don’t pay taxes…
———————————————-
Dog whistle much? How about some facts sunshine or maybe you should have studied more to meet entrance requirements?

https://www.ubc.ca/about/facts.html

https://students.ubc.ca/enrolment/finances/tuition-fees/undergraduate-tuition-fees

#15 The Wet One on 09.04.19 at 5:31 pm

Just read this from yesterday Garth:

“Sadly, the following message must be delivered.

This blog is about money, the economy, canines, investing, real estate, chiseled abs and occasionally brake repairs and shorter people. It’s not here so you have yet another place on the Internet to dis the Chinese and Asians, tell us how brown families are making houses unaffordable, trash Muslims or opine for those great old days before we had ‘mass immigration.’

It’s a lamentable that populist, nationalist politicians like Max Bernier or you-know-who in the White House can be openly xenophobic and intolerant. They have lowered not only our threshold for dignity and respect but enabled all the economic and social losers among us. Bigotry and prejudice are usually born out of resentment and missed opportunity, which leads to hate and the heaping of blame upon outsiders. History is littered with ‘strong’ leaders who fired up the masses by making others into scapegoats. We are closer to that path than I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

So, no, I can’t change the course of events. Or make you peaceful, calm and confident. But I can, and will, keep this blog out of the swill. The Delete cops are standing by. The water cannons are loaded. The end is nigh.”

You’re good people Mr. Turner.

#16 Bill Grable on 09.04.19 at 5:40 pm

Honestly, I care more about how your pal Bandit is doing (bless his beautiful self), than reading some total malarkey from some R/E cretin, with hair extensions and an ego the size of a Buick.

Face facts – Vancouver is an unfolding disaster. End of story.

The noise level from endless construction starts at 7:30 and traffic is reminiscent of Bangkok, minus the tuks-tuks.

*I’d move – but health issues prevent that option. So please don’t start defending this City, that was once a place to live, rather than survive.

I get it.

It is devastating….when the City you have loved for 60 years, has imploded.

#17 FreeBird on 09.04.19 at 5:45 pm

“…can I still say that?”
I’d say ask Dorothy. My guess is if we’re reading it she’s good? And those yearly firemen (person?) calendars usually sell out. Sooo… Commonsense and fair play maybe.

As a side the internet went public just over 28 yrs ago (before auto correct and emojis).

https://thenextweb.com/insider/2011/08/06/20-years-ago-today-the-world-wide-web-opened-to-the-public/
Actual origins are still debated:
http://www.nethistory.info/History%20of%20the%20Internet/origins.html

#18 Don Guillermo on 09.04.19 at 5:46 pm

@#149 Don Juan
“walking through +15 areas in shirtsleeves with blue skies streaming through and reflecting off the glass towers.”
++++

Ahhhh yes.
The +15 elevated pedestrian “hamster tubes” in downtown cowtown.

“hamster tubes”

https://ggrexy.zenfolio.com/calgary/h7D1EAEB0#h7d1eaeb0

#19 belly rubs on 09.04.19 at 5:48 pm

Frequent reader with a few questions about building a business based on real estate. I appreciate the intuitive comments often found on this blog, so i would consider your input golden. Here’s the situation…

-Bought land with cash
-Scenic, next to park, and has on-site mineral spring
-Want to change zoning from farm to recreation (if zoning can’t change, I am still zoned for b&b and home business.)
-Then make operating company to develop site and pay rent to me.
-Get investors to participate in operating company
-Goal is seasonal camping, a few mini-cottages, public restrooms, mineral spa, small store, our own water label. Local employment.

Questions: Should I keep land ownership and operating company separate? Can the operating company get a low interest loan to build the facilities, and should I sell shares in the operating company?

I am new to this world of high finance, but it really is a sweet property and I would like to share the experience while preserving the natural magic of the place. (I already run an ecological reserve in another location, so I have the experience.) There is no camping in the park next door and the only local campgrounds are booked all summer. Dogs on our site can roam free, of course.

Any thoughts on this business idea would be awesome.

#20 north snore on 09.04.19 at 5:52 pm

Less government is what I would like.

This program is a complete waste. I wonder how hard it would be to scrap by the next government once its in motion

#21 Rargary on 09.04.19 at 5:54 pm

The JT incentive to win votes, help the feds bring in more long term money, coax moisters to get into more debt and potentially push up housing market prices… yet no further incentive to pay down debts and save or invest money… talk about pushing millenials over the edge!

#22 north snore on 09.04.19 at 5:55 pm

#1 Dave

Get a grip dude. Leave those students alone.

#23 Dolce Vita on 09.04.19 at 6:02 pm

Garth, as much as I love you, you are forgetting this fact about recessions:

1/2 Economy
1/2 Psychology

THE MEDIA

Albeit N. American MSM is very left biased (dislike Trump with gusto), thus, I believe they are doing their damnedest to work the “Psychology” angle to bring on a recession – however foolish, heartless and fiendish that narrative is (even normally level headed Bill Maher wishes it so, machinations of crazy rich people if you ask me).

Then again, even Fox Business (the Right) had this to say today:

“US-China trade war may drive economy to brink of recession”

“Markets predict slow growth, not recession: Ed Lazear”

That’s when you worry when even the Right is thinking the same thing. Seems they are unwittingly buying into the slow growth or recession narrative.

SOME TRUTH TO THE MSM NARRATIVE

There is some truth to that narrative though, look at other G7 members:

-Germany entering recession, AfD made huge gains in solidly CDU and SPD regions the other day in elections.
-Italy has seen no growth since they adopted the Euro.
-UK imploding about Brexit and warnings of recession from their central bank.
-France doing not much better that the above and buying compliance from the Yellow Vest movement, how long can that last?
-Japan facing recession.

All that is left is the US and its hanger on Canada. Neither will be able to weather a global slowdown or recession while the rest of the G7 are in it nor with China’s economy slowing down.

WISDOM OR LIES?

I hope you are correct economically for the sake of the average working person just trying to make a living but another fact you are ignoring is this:

Wisdom of the Crowd (statistically proven).

Or:

If you repeat the lie (slowdown, recession) enough times it becomes the truth – a sad but true comment about human nature.

We’ll see soon enough which it is, Wisdom or the Lie.

———————————–

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia*.

*Upper 20’s for the next few days, feeling absolutely Autumn like…love the cold, less A/C a good thing.

#24 Flop... on 09.04.19 at 6:07 pm

Real estate?

Really?

I just spent the last 24 hours brushing up on my race, religion and politics power points.

Also bought a colander and strapped it to my head.

Hit me with your best strop…

M45BC

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.19 at 6:13 pm

@#18 Donnie Brasco
“hamster tubes”
*****

Yer little Travel log didnt show too many “Hamster Tubes” 15 meters above the streets.
Just Malls and Skyline.
Been there .
Done dat.
The only fun in Cow town was Stampede.
The best road in cowtown heads west….to the mountains.

#26 Dave on 09.04.19 at 6:18 pm

Remembrancer
Dog whistle much? How about some facts sunshine or maybe you should have studied more to meet entrance requirements?

https://www.ubc.ca/about/facts.html

https://students.ubc.ca/enrolment/finances/tuition-fees/undergraduate-tuition-fees

—————-

I studied and got in…you obviously need a course in critical thinking.

#27 Slim on 09.04.19 at 6:20 pm

I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.

#28 Flop... on 09.04.19 at 6:22 pm

I could probably give a pretty good Vancouver real estate report right about now.

Unfortunately there are a few lunatics on here that think so highly of themselves that they think they should be able to give permission for me to tell the truth.

Some even in far-flung places like Alberta and Ontario.

It will just come out slower.

Regardless, it’s coming out and that’s the main thing…

M45BC

#29 Mrs Hubris on 09.04.19 at 6:32 pm

This “incentive” for FT buyers was deliberately restricted to specified limits so as not to encourage the endlessly uninformed and house- obsessed into (even more) debt they could not afford. See Evan Siddall’s ever level-headed comments from around the time of the original announcement. If government genuinely wants to help the Millennial generation, they need to seriously wake up to AirBnb which is removing great swathes of previously rentable (and buyable) properties from the market. The financialisation of housing is like whack-a-mole and simply undermines the social fabric. Who cares as long as we’re making money? Look closer – it undermines the endless virtue signalling too.

#30 Some guy on 09.04.19 at 6:36 pm

The federal government will never make housing affordable. Most government employees are home owners with comfy wages while living in the waspy Ottawa bubble. They have a vested interest in keeping house prices inflated. You are on you’re own in this country, greed has won.

#31 Never ending BS in the media on 09.04.19 at 6:42 pm

Sick and tired of all of these fake people in Canada.

Call a spade a spade. Canada is fooked. Beyond repair.

42% of Canadians now say their financial debt woes are so bad that it is affecting their work productivity.

Working and homeless? Yeah, that could be a bit of a distraction.

#32 Lead Paint on 09.04.19 at 6:43 pm

This explains Smoking Mans motivation and those that dislike science: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/opinion/trump-voters-chaos.html

#33 Forclosure Central - Alberta Ground Zero on 09.04.19 at 6:48 pm

Anyone in Alberta knows what’s up.

The crooks already left AB.

It will follow. BC starting to tank. Building slowdown which was the flip from oil now the root cause of mill shutdowns. Thousands being laid off for good and the wages are hard to replace. Flipping burgers at McDs ain’t going to cut it, but might be better than nothing. So learn the line for your next job: would you like that supersized – side order of fries for that sir?

#34 Trawna on 09.04.19 at 6:57 pm

Yowza! The comely Ashley really puts the “meow” in “homeowner”.

#35 Yukon Elvis on 09.04.19 at 7:07 pm

#7 Yukon Elvis on 09.04.19 at 5:04 pm
Interesting if true. Check out point #5 : Will our tax dollars subsidize non citizens ?

Who qualifies to use the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive program?

1.At least one purchaser must be a first-time home buyer
2.Must not have owned a home during the last four years
3.People who have gone through a marital breakdown or separation (even if they have owned a home within the last four years)
4.Household income cannot exceed $120,000 per year

5.Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or non-permanent residents who are legally authorized to work in Canada

6.The maximum mortgage amount can be up to four times the amount of your annual income. If your income is $100,000, the maximum mortgage amount will be $400,000 so your purchase price will be $400,000 plus your down payment.

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-264834-902-.htm#264834

They have TFSAs, RRSPs and pay income taxes. How is that different from you? – Garth
……………………..

How do you know that ?! You just made that up. You don’t know what they have or don’t have. If they are non permanent residents they are not Canadians. Why should they get a government subsidy? Take a poll, ask the dogs if they want to subsidize non residents to buy Canadian real estate.

All residents earn TFSA room. All employed people living here earn RSP room. All employed residents, citizens or not, are part of the income tax system. Just like you. If you keep up your old-stock-Canadian rant you’ll no longer be posting here. Make your choice. – Garth

#36 david on 09.04.19 at 7:10 pm

@30 Some Guy: “The federal government will never make housing affordable. Most government employees are home owners with comfy wages while living in the waspy Ottawa bubble. They have a vested interest in keeping house prices inflated.”

Oh, you mean that same terrible government that put in that terrible stress test and keeps it there despite all the calls from AB and ON to get rid of it, in part because it may have materially contributed to a decline in house prices. YUP. that is just more evidence that government is taking steps to inflate prices cause they all own a home. and how many times have they tightened the eligibility rules, which …. would… seem …NOT … to support … you get my point. its OK to admit your wrong…. go ahead… try it..

#37 Dina Conti on 09.04.19 at 7:17 pm

#20 north snore, it is a waste of money, time for taxpayers but see the Federal liberals, Trudeau, Morneau are thinking long term how to screw us even more and have one more thing to get votes and hold over conservatives.

They can simply promise that this would be a forgiven, tax free money that they don’t owe back as long as they get reelected the next time. Canadians are so uninformed and don’t know history. I remember my parents telling me that back when Pierre Elliot Trudeau, PM’s Justin Trudeau’s father was prime minister of Canada back in day, 1970’s, 1980’s promised $1,000 for those buying a house which I assume was first time buyers like this recent Justin Trudeau’s Canada Liberals shared equity mortgage.

Canadians wake up and smell the roses.

#38 AGuyInVancouver on 09.04.19 at 7:29 pm

#6 yvr_lurker on 09.04.19 at 4:50 pm
As I see it (and have said many times), the year-to-year price declines in YVR are a good sign that the speculators, flippers, and offshore buyers have been largely driven from the market….
_ _ _
Exactly, and for his troubles all John Horgan gets from Garth is abuse. Just as you can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, you can’t fix Vancouver’s housing market without pissing off a few rich folks.

#39 Long-Time Lurker on 09.04.19 at 7:33 pm

#19 belly rubs on 09.04.19 at 5:48 pm

Questions: (1) Should I keep land ownership and operating company separate? (2) Can the operating company get a low interest loan to build the facilities, and (3) should I sell shares in the operating company?

>(1) Prevent a complete hostile takeover. (2) Find investors. (3) Yeah, see #2. You’d better keep 51% ownership.

-Goal is seasonal camping, a few mini-cottages, public restrooms, mineral spa, small store, our own water label. Local employment.

>Start with a small b&b and small storefront. All these facilities can be in one smaller building. You might be able to fund all of this yourself. Grow from there if your business model is viable.

It sounds like business is going to be slow in the off-season. You’d better factor that into your plans.

#40 Oh Canada on 09.04.19 at 7:37 pm

Garth are you campaigning for the Liberals??? The economy is in shambles in fact and we may already be in a recession. This will come out AFTER the elections in October.

#41 Long-Time Lurker on 09.04.19 at 7:37 pm

#50 Flop… on 09.03.19 at 8:03 pm

Hey Lurker, did you see this Space Hotel yesterday?

>I saw that. The “Space Race” is the 21st century’s counterpart to the “Aviation Race” of the 20th century.

Re: Hong Kong. It looks like Lam is on the retreat. I’d doubt Xi would let them get away with that considering what’s happening to Uighurs in Xinjiang.

#42 conan on 09.04.19 at 7:44 pm

The comely boss (can I still say that?)

Nay. The word is bodacious.

#43 akashic record on 09.04.19 at 7:49 pm

#12 PastThePeak

– The article uses some misleading language (comparing to CDOs when they are not actually implying ETFs are a similar product)

—-

The big short guy is not using misleading language.

He is claiming similarities between current ETFs and those mis-priced CDOs, which triggered the 2008 crisis, based on the following:

– The passive flows are distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDOs did for subprime mortgages.

– The simple models that get people into sectors, indexes, or ETFs do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery (for individual, stand-alone stocks, for example).

– Like in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis, price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved (aka theoretical) models of risk – that proved to be untrue.

– In ETFs hundreds of billions of dollars are linked to large number of stocks, which as stand-alone stocks, are traded very differently: in low value and low volumes. The vast majority of stocks (in ETFs) are lower volume, lower value-traded stocks.

Based on these, he believes that the value of ETFs is distorted in a way, that is comparable the distorted values of CDOs, that created the financial crisis.

And he is wrong. But he did get his name revived. – Garth

#44 Entrepreneur on 09.04.19 at 7:56 pm

T1 is basically doing the same as the Liberal Clark did in BC. They will help buyers by any means to get into the condo/housing market, debt, long term. So sad.

So when leaders lead people into debt isn’t that basically wrong? Isn’t that going against our way of thinking, against what we have been taught in the school system? Short term debt only and there is a reason for this.

Or have the leaders left the people behind who they are suppose to govern when homeless campgrounds are on the increase? Looks like it to me.

The spiral to the top is climbing higher, leaving the hard working taxpayer behind. Leaving behind what used to be communities, caring people who care about their neighbours, environment.

Thank goodness we have a world referee but the leaders are not listening or either not connecting the dots. Or do not understand how environment works, refusing to acknowledge the consequences.

And cannot hand out millions of dollars to cover the problem.

#45 Capt. Serious on 09.04.19 at 8:05 pm

Is this what government should be doing?

As far as buying votes goes, you really have to admire the creativity of the current government.

#46 april on 09.04.19 at 8:11 pm

#5- Listen to Ross Kay at Howestreet.com Oct 3 re first time home buyer incentive. He explains in detail…. program is a scam.

#47 CJohnC on 09.04.19 at 8:25 pm

#19 Belly Rubs. “I already run an ecological reserve in another location, so I have the experience.

Your questions are surprising given the above statement

#48 Flop... on 09.04.19 at 8:31 pm

#16 Bill Grable on 09.04.19 at 5:40 pm
Honestly, I care more about how your pal Bandit is doing (bless his beautiful self), than reading some total malarkey from some R/E cretin, with hair extensions and an ego the size of a Buick.

Face facts – Vancouver is an unfolding disaster. End of story.

The noise level from endless construction starts at 7:30 and traffic is reminiscent of Bangkok, minus the tuks-tuks.

/////////////

Mr Bill, can I write anything to soothe you?

Probably not, but as always I will try to extend a branch.

I’m one of those guys that are working on new construction at 7.30 in the morning.

It is our workplace, and just like all workplaces, some people try to look after them and not infringe on anyone and some guys just don’t give a crap.

I just finished two new builds and had a totally different experience on each.

The first one, only house under construction, neighbors were friendly, asked questions to learn about the construction process and never complained about vehicles parked out front of their residences.

Second one, what a hot mess that area was.

Four houses in various stages of construction.

Orange death mesh everywhere.

After going out to get some tools out of my car and getting passive-aggressive post-it notes on my car, and a lecture I decided to park around the corner for the rest of the trip.

Nice couple living in a rancher and we got to talking about all the construction.

The guy thought that I made a good point when I pointed out that the most vocal neighbors were the ones in recently completed newer buildings.

These hypercritical people only want construction workers, or gardeners for that matter, in the neighborhood when they are working on their properties.

I like to keep noise to a minimum,a lot of times I am the first one on site, I keep as many doors and windows closed as possible and keep the radio down until 9am, by then there can be ten guys onsite and it’s game on.

I hate it when guys go to Subway/McDonalds/Tim Hortons etc and come back onsite and eat it in their cars and discard the wrappers out the window.

Totally disrespectful and unnecessary as their is usually the biggest bin in the neighborhood out front.

Also screws and nails all over the streets are disrespectful to the neighbors, and also workers.

Last year I was working on a house on Cypress Street and I told the developer to get a labourer to sweep the street as items on the street were out of control.

I got a screw in my tire few days later, there goes $30 for a patch.

I’ve been doing this for 30 years, I respect my workplace and prefer to try and get along the neighbors.

A lot of our vehicles are mobile workshops, as you never know what you are going to need on any given day.It is important to have them nearby.

There is such a thing as too much construction, and Vancouver has that problem.

They ain’t 3D printing houses and dropping them on vacant blocks of land yet, we still have to do hand to hand combat in hostile territory…

M45BC

#49 acdel on 09.04.19 at 8:33 pm

Low inflation in Canada; come on Garth even you probably bit your lip writing such a foolish line. Every Canuck out there knows that inflation, especially from week to week has become where one cannot even budget for next weeks groceries or bills,gas, etc! It is just a complete B.S. number in the charts that you refer to.

#50 n1tro on 09.04.19 at 9:01 pm

#42 conan on 09.04.19 at 7:44 pm
The comely boss (can I still say that?)

Nay. The word is bodacious.
————
Are you sure? Do you know the Asian way of measuring if pants to see if it will fit you without having a tape measure handy?

You take the pants, button it up, and wrap the waist part around your neck. If the 2 ends meet with a wee bit of slack, then the pants will fit your waist.

Ashley looks to have a pretty thick neck. Just saying… :)

#51 Derek R on 09.04.19 at 9:08 pm

Help-To-Buy programs like the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive scheme have already been tried in Australia and in the UK.

Experience in those countries has shown that it would be more accurate to call them Help-To-Sell programs because the main effect is to push up the price of housing. So sellers get more cash but buyers that qualify end up paying the same and buyers that don’t have to pay more than did before the program was introduced.

So, great scheme if you’re a seller. Not so much if you’re a buyer, even a first-time buyer.

#52 akashic record on 09.04.19 at 9:12 pm

#43 akashic record on 09.04.19 at 7:49 pm

And he is wrong. But he did get his name revived. – Garth

The big short guy had to make his name once by being right, to be remembered as long as the 2008 crises will be mentioned.

Time will tell who is right, who is wrong.

#53 IHCTD9 on 09.04.19 at 9:15 pm

#21 Rargary on 09.04.19 at 5:54 pm
The JT incentive to win votes, help the feds bring in more long term money, coax moisters to get into more debt and potentially push up housing market prices… yet no further incentive to pay down debts and save or invest money… talk about pushing millenials over the edge
———

It’s their sword to fall on, no one is putting a gun to their heads.

You know what would fix things in Van? 3 million dollar houses on the low end. 1 million dollar 400 sf condos with 1500.00/month fees. How dumb does the average home/condo buyer want to be? Make it 4 million. 5 million.

At some point along the hockey stick, brains will become engaged, 90% of once hopeful home buyers will finally throw in the towel in utter disgust, and the spec’ers will get absolutely slaughtered.

There is no way of making Vancouver RE affordable – actually affordable – without blood running in the streets, along with a total napalming for the life savings of tens of thousands.

That’s what it took in the US – it has to be bad enough to make RE scary.

#54 akashic record on 09.04.19 at 9:24 pm

#48 Flop…

They ain’t 3D printing houses and dropping them on vacant blocks of land yet

I can’t wait to get this to Lowes or HomeDepot and have some fun…

https://bonestructure.ca/en/process/#step8

#55 The homemoaner on 09.04.19 at 10:55 pm

Just bought a home because I have a steady job in BC now and need a place and can afford it. But I have to pay full fare, no free property tax give away for me, my bill was $8,200, can’t qualify for other incentives since I can actually support myself. It’s not the govt paying for these loser’s condos in BC, it’s my 8200. Guess I’ll keep driving my shitty car for the next 3-5 years so other people can try to own houses they can’t afford.

#56 Sail Away on 09.04.19 at 11:09 pm

#1 Dave on 09.04.19 at 4:37 pm

“The government should be doing something when locals can’t get into UBC because it is flooded with foreign students”

—————————————

Huh… my son’s local and he got right into UBC engineering. He’s rooming with three of his local friends who are in UBC as well. Maybe they missed the memo?

Regarding your other hopes for the government to step into all areas of our lives- be careful what you wish for since it just might come true. Then we’d be in trouble.

Ben Franklin said government could consist of up to a dozen members, but it should never be more than that.

#57 Raging Ranter on 09.04.19 at 11:31 pm

Smartalox, you’ve been peddling that same fantasy every time the shared home buyers incentive is mentioned. Not even the government pretends the program has an economic justification. They’re selling it as a way to get more Millennials into houses. It’s for stimulating votes, not construction in Flin Flon.

#58 Smoking Man on 09.05.19 at 12:36 am

T2 is going to win. Globalists via dumb ass teachers got to the kids…

Let this song sink in….
https://youtu.be/MfmYCM4CS8o

Me and my tax free forex bounty, will be watching from an island not in a Hurrican path..

Popcorn with mega butter. .

#59 Sail Away on 09.05.19 at 12:47 am

#115 dharma bum on 09.04.19 at 8:29 am
#95 Sail Away (from Sept. 2)

What do either of you know about corporations?
——————————————————————–

A lot.

Working as a chief operating officer, a sales manager, and a general manager for corporations over 35 years gave me a lot of insight into the culture and mentality of the profit motive. I worked to earn profits for corporations.

If it were up to them, they would hire slaves if they could, if not for the constant pushback by unions, workers, the media, the government, etc.

————————————————

An important point here is that corporations are individual unto themselves and one can be completely different than another. You or I can start a corporation in a week.

Just because a corporation exists doesn’t make it evil.

I assume as past COO, you must realize profit is necessary for continued operation. Without profit or at very least break-even, the operation fails and all jobs are lost with it.

If it were up to governments, employees, media and unions, they would raise employee wages/benefits to unsustainable levels and tax corporations out of existence. Luckily the constant lobbying and pushback of corporations allows a balance to be maintained and some profit to be earned.

There are many sides to each situation.

#60 Smoking Man on 09.05.19 at 12:59 am

George never downed 5 long island ice tee’s in a 1/2 hour in the desert..

https://youtu.be/–AvCsh48bk

I did….

#61 Smoking Man on 09.05.19 at 1:24 am

Too the newly schooled..

Find it.

https://youtu.be/Lli99OmkPwM

#62 DON on 09.05.19 at 1:34 am

@ The jaguar

I see it the same way. Not a doom and gloom scenario…just cold hard reality.

Staycations, short road trips and camping seem to be the norm, even among those with two incomes etc.

Real estate on the island in those retirement areas is slowing down. Friend is having a hard time selling a new build in Comox (never lived in). Deal fell through due to financing…first offer in 3 months. Young local families cannot afford to replace the retirees as they move on. Lack of high paying jobs to sustain the area. The forest industry has been gutted since the 80s etc. And so on.

Those reverse mortgage ads are booming these days, all over the radio/tv. Someone must see a market.

#63 Humankind on 09.05.19 at 2:14 am

Shared Equity? Bwahahahaha! You have to be a special kind of idiot to propose this political sham. And just in time for an election too? This is aimed at the Moisters who chose to drop out of math in Grade 9 to smoke dope. Garth yer right on this one. Why would Destiny want to own a coffin mortgage when she could rent for less. Man, these Mills are dense. Video games and Dope dense.

Meanwhile in the real world, where Trump Hate late night hosts are begging for a recession to play off and crush Trump. Wishful thinking. Here on Planet Earth the rumblings from underground are setting up the boom to come.

Baltic Dry Index notches 10th straight gain

#64 Victor on 09.05.19 at 2:52 am

sure, no inflation as we are told. I guess that doesn’t include food & gas here in BC. Maybe I live in a different universe.

#65 Boho Wrinkle on 09.05.19 at 4:35 am

Garth, just thought you’d need to know. Adele is coming .

https://people.com/music/adele-life-after-divorce-new-music-plans/

Enjoy

#66 Bloke in Lincoln (UK) on 09.05.19 at 5:04 am

“Shared Equity” mortgages to “get people on the housing ladder” have been pretty commonplace here in the UK for going on 20 years. All they succeed in doing is increasing the profits of the housebuilders for new property, and increasing the price of houses across the board for all types. As a nation, one of the places we went sadly wrong was when Economics stopped being taught in schools, or it would be obvious to everyone that this is inevitable.

#67 dharma bum on 09.05.19 at 7:53 am

The FTHBI is, like, soooooo unfair to boomers, man.

Like, why isn’t there a FTSRHOCBI (First Time Second Recreational Home Or Cottage Buyers Incentive) program?

I’ve had plain boring city homes now for 34 years, and I’d like to buy a nice waterfront cabin (y’know, maybe a high end Viceroy home, or a classic post and beam structure with floor to ceiling windows facing the lake) in the countryside.

Why is the government not helping me buy this? WHY? It’s my FIRST TIME buying!
So UNFAIR I tell you.
Stupid government.

I’m so angry I could just cry. The mills get all the breaks.

#68 jess on 09.05.19 at 8:18 am

Finance & Development, September 2019, Vol. 56, No. 3 PDF version
The Rise of Phantom Investments

Empty corporate shells in tax havens undermine tax collection in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies

Jannick Damgaard, Thomas Elkjaer, and Niels Johannesen
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/09/the-rise-of-phantom-FDI-in-tax-havens-damgaard.htm

Phantom’ €500bn of investment adds to Irish tax haven claims

“Interestingly, a few well-known tax havens host the vast majority of the world’s phantom foreign direct investment,” according to the report by IMF economists Jannick Damgaard and Thomas Elkjaer, with Niels Johannesen from Copenhagen University.

Luxembourg topped the list of countries which funds flow through, with $3.8trn in flows, while Ireland ranked ninth in a list which also included the Netherlands, Hong Kong, the British Virgin Islands, Singapore, the Cayman Islands, Switzerland and Mauritius.

The new report comes hard on the heels of data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis last week which said American multinationals declared $83bn profits here in 2017, data which prompted leading tax economist Gabriel Zucman to describe Ireland as the world’s number one tax haven.

#69 Boffo Sam on 09.05.19 at 8:53 am

“Big Short” identifies the biggest bubble brewing out there, passive investments. Bond funds, ETFs, Index Funds all look like they’re ready to implode. Read it an weep guys.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/the-big-shorts-michael-burry-says-he-has-found-the-next-market-bubble.html

Great companies doing great things produce income, indexes are 95% dogs. You want to own the best of breed . My bet is on the much maligned stock pickers and dividend aristocrats that keep the lights on, the shelves stocked, the rents collected etc.

#70 n1tro on 09.05.19 at 8:54 am

#59 Sail Away on 09.05.19 at 12:47 am
#115 dharma bum on 09.04.19 at 8:29 am
#95 Sail Away (from Sept. 2)

What do either of you know about corporations?
——————————————————————–

A lot.

————————————————

There are many sides to each situation.
————
Congrats on making it up to COO throughout your career. But does that really mean you understand how things really operate to make the comment that corporations just want slave labor? This isn’t to doubt your skills but some corps are self moving machines and you can put anyone in a position without really hindering the operations too much.

I’m sure some corps would love slave labor but that is only one part of a bigger equation. Any COO worth their salt would know to set up perpetual monitoring cycle which focuses on people, processes, improvements, and technology (maybe more items depending on the COO’s training) in addition to ways to drive/sustain sales. The COO’s job would be to tweak the cycle so the corp can get more without spending more. This doesn’t mean that employees would never get fatter paycheques, it just means, if done right, the corp would have a lean team that is paid well.

More often than not, COOs, GMs, etc from my experience anyways…are promoted from a pool of the best salespeople (ie. good talkers). My current place for example. The GM got promoted to COO. Typical old, tall, white guy with all head full of grey hair. Past experience? Working in the backoffices of Leon’s. His GM position was filled with a tall white guy who was an account manager for years at the company.

Tell how the experience of furniture sales and account management prepares someone to run an entire corporation now and for years to come?

#71 Edward Bear on 09.05.19 at 9:35 am

Having worked for many years in the towers of Calgary’s downtown core, the plus fifteen system made traversing the downtown and doing business in this wintry city much more pleasant when outdoor temps were 30C and the wind was howling down city streets. They mean that meetings, haircuts, coffee, shopping, medical visits, gym, beauty parlour visits, lunching or imbibing may be done without donning the Arctic gear. They continue to be a brilliant idea. Has the gaseous elevator fouler who called them ‘hamster tubes’ ever used them? You may buy a nice home in this neighbourly city that isn’t in a sky high rabbit warren still eat three meals a day and be 45 minutes from our vertical or horizontal countryside.

#72 Edward Bear on 09.05.19 at 9:35 am

Having worked for many years in the towers of Calgary’s downtown core, the plus fifteen system made traversing the downtown and doing business in this wintry city much more pleasant when outdoor temps were 30C and the wind was howling down city streets. They mean that meetings, haircuts, coffee, shopping, medical visits, gym, beauty parlour visits, lunching or imbibing may be done without donning the Arctic gear. They continue to be a brilliant idea. Has the gaseous elevator fouler who called them ‘hamster tubes’ ever used them? You may buy a nice home in this neighbourly city that isn’t in a sky high rabbit warren still eat three meals a day and be 45 minutes from our vertical or horizontal countryside.

#73 Flop... on 09.05.19 at 9:49 am

As long as bananas stay at 69 cents a pound, I’m in with a fighting chance…

M45BC

“Visualizing the Purchasing Power of the Dollar Over the Last Century

It’s no secret that $1 now will get you less than it would 100 years ago, but just how much has the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar decreased over the years? To illustrate this, we created a visualization that demonstrates the rise and fall of the dollar since 1913. Using this graphic, we can see how inflation and changes in the Consumer Price Index have decreased the dollar’s purchasing power over the last century.

$100 in 1913 would only be worth about $3.87 today.

While the purchasing power of the dollar has gone up and down since 1913, it has never surpassed the purchasing power it had in 1913.

The purchasing power of U.S. citizens has always topped the charts, but that could be changing in the future.

Inflation impacts nearly all variables of macroeconomics, and many believe that current U.S. inflation levels are too low.

To create our visualization, we used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI Inflation Calculator. This calculator uses the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, which represents the changes in prices for consumer goods and services purchased by urban households.

By examining this data we can see how the purchasing power, or the total amount of goods and services that can be bought with one dollar, has changed since 1913. Additionally, we can see how recessions and major economic events impact our purchasing power.

What is $100 worth in 1913 over time?

1913: $100
1923: $57.89
1933: $76.15
1943: $57.23
1953: $37.08
1963: $32.35
1973: $22.30
1983: $9.94
1993: $6.85
2003: $5.38
2013: $4.25
2019: $3.87

Though there are outliers, the purchasing power of the dollar has steadily decreased since 1913. This is due to inflation and the continued increase of the Consumer Price Index over the years. As demonstrated by the data, dollar purchasing power has a negative correlation with the CPI. As the CPI increases, purchasing power of the dollar decreases over time.

Inflation is the constant rise in the prices of consumer goods and services over the years. As these prices continue to increase, the total amount of goods and services that can be purchased with a single dollar decreases.

Typically, sustained inflation occurs when the world’s money supply outperforms economic growth, which is why many people suggest that the world’s central banks must coordinate to maintain economic stability. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Controlled inflation provides stable growth environment in asset prices. This increases the value of homes and other real assets.

Recessions and major economic events can also affect inflation and the CPI. During a recession, the CPI often falls or increases at a slower rate due to the decreased demand for consumer goods and services.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar

#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.05.19 at 9:52 am

#67 dharma bum on 09.05.19 at 7:53 am sez:
“The FTHBI is, like, soooooo unfair to boomers, man.

Like, why isn’t there a FTSRHOCBI (First Time Second Recreational Home Or Cottage Buyers Incentive) program?

I’ve had plain boring city homes now for 34 years, and I’d like to buy a nice waterfront cabin (y’know, maybe a high end Viceroy home, or a classic post and beam structure with floor to ceiling windows facing the lake) in the countryside.

Why is the government not helping me buy this? WHY? It’s my FIRST TIME buying!
So UNFAIR I tell you.
Stupid government.

I’m so angry I could just cry. The mills get all the breaks.”
———————————————————————
There there db. Undo your man bun to take some pressure off of your brain, grab a latte and head to your safe space with your comfort animal. You’ll be ohh-kay.

#75 Tannhäuser Gatekeeper on 09.05.19 at 10:21 am

#69 Boffo Sam — “Great companies doing great things produce income, indexes are 95% dogs. You want to own the best of breed . My bet is on the much maligned stock pickers and dividend aristocrats that keep the lights on, the shelves stocked, the rents collected etc.”

Yes, it’s a strange world these days. A few weeks ago, CIBC managed to float a new pref issue yielding less than their common. Who the hell buys such a thing? Smug indexers, I’d guess, and nobody else.

#76 Remembrancer on 09.05.19 at 10:45 am

#26 Dave on 09.04.19 at 6:18 pm

I studied and got in…you obviously need a course in critical thinking.
—————————————-
Hmm, critical thinking about what? That your “pay no taxes” jab is demonstrably offset by substantially higher tuition rates for international students? Who btw are still paying consumption taxes as well while resident in Canada. Or your definition of “flooded” enrollments is 26% international students?

#77 Mattl on 09.05.19 at 11:09 am

#28 Flop… on 09.04.19 at 6:22 pm
I could probably give a pretty good Vancouver real estate report right about now.

Unfortunately there are a few lunatics on here that think so highly of themselves that they think they should be able to give permission for me to tell the truth.

Some even in far-flung places like Alberta and Ontario.

It will just come out slower.

Regardless, it’s coming out and that’s the main thing…

M45BC

————————————————————

I find it odd that you feel so many people are out to get you – whoever you are – and prominent commentators on YVR RE like Ross Kay and Garth and guys that run FB pages calling for YVR RE doom seem to live perfectly safe lives. Brian Ripley posts these same numbers weekly and from what I can tell he isn’t under attack.

Sure you aren’t imagining this threat? I honestly can’t understand why anyone would be after you for posting what a house was bought and sold for. All of this is public info. Only bring this up because you are constantly posting about the threat you are under. Looking for attention I’m thinking?

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.05.19 at 11:23 am

Hamster tubes. Did not know they call it that.
They pretty much saved my ass when I took my first business trip to Calgary early April 1990.
Arrived in shorts and t-shirt from balmy 20 degree Vancouver to a bone chilling -25 in Calgary.

#79 expat on 09.05.19 at 11:25 am

Hong Kong cancels extradition plan – Asian market pops
China says it’s willing to bend over for trump- market jumps

It’s pretty clear algos are running on news feeds……
Shorts get whacked

Cnbc says all is well. All problems are gone – buy,buy,buy.

Negative rates are great, ECB will save Europe, the Fed will save North America………..

The steerage section goes woowho!!!!!!

Smart money shrink into the shadows quietly.

#80 Mattl on 09.05.19 at 11:37 am

Yukon Elvis:

“How do you know that ?! You just made that up. You don’t know what they have or don’t have. If they are non permanent residents they are not Canadians. Why should they get a government subsidy? Take a poll, ask the dogs if they want to subsidize non residents to buy Canadian real estate.”

———————————————————–

I for one am down with it. I don’t have a big play in RE – just the home we live in – but I’m all for the market being kept propped up. Immigration and programs like this will ensure that the RE train goes on for a long time. Look at YVR – three years from peak and only 13% down, after a 110% run up.

Let’s keep buyers coming in to the country and funded.

#81 Flop... on 09.05.19 at 11:40 am

Mattel

“I find it odd that you feel so many people are out to get you – whoever you are – and prominent commentators on YVR RE like Ross Kay and Garth and guys that run FB pages calling for YVR RE doom…”

I don’t call for RE doom.

I report/reported what is actually going on.

Did you bother reading my post to Bill Grable?

Since I have been on here I have tried to humanize immigrants.

I have tried to humanize construction workers.

I have tried to reach out, and even got a few real estate agents to help me out to try and humanize themselves and show they care when no commission is involved.

I can’t write for crap.

When Vancouver started correcting I thought Garths coverage needed augmentation, I did my best to keep as many people safe and informed as possible.

For a brief amount of time I had one of the most popular real estate blogs in the city, helped numerous people, with countless hours trying to improve their living situation.

I also managed to raise some funds for The Terry Fox Foundation.

Besides being a constant dick and try to mislead people, what did you do?

M45BC

#82 Sail away on 09.05.19 at 11:41 am

#76 Mattl on 09.05.19 at 11:09 am
#28 Flop… on 09.04.19 at 6:22 pm

…there are a few lunatics on here that think so highly of themselves that they think they should be able to give permission for me to tell the truth.

————————————————————
I find it odd that you feel so many people are out to get you – whoever you are –

Sure you aren’t imagining this threat?

Looking for attention I’m thinking?

————————————–

Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean the little green men aren’t watching you.

#83 TS on 09.05.19 at 12:02 pm

@ #75 Remembrancer

Dave’s tax “fairness” issue is a legitimate concern. Property taxes (about 0.25%), GST/PST, and higher tuition are a drop in the bucket. In theory we shouldn’t have a problem since once Canada establishes you as a resident, you should pay income tax on your global income. The problem is that Canada is a very naive country and relies on the honor system for people to voluntarily disclose their income abroad. I think there is probably one guy in the basement of the CRA that is tasked with looking for foreign income that isn’t declared. The result is people drive around in their Ferraris and declare 10k in income and laugh at the rest of you paying their bills.

#84 Damifino on 09.05.19 at 12:15 pm

#5 Larry B

NEVER get into bed with the government
————————————

There is one exception. Anyone with an RRSP is in bed with the government. But that’s actually a good thing. Not a great thing, but a good thing.

Now, the TFSA… that’s a great thing.

#85 yvrmc on 09.05.19 at 12:35 pm

#28 Flop…. so a friend bit the bullet and bought a condo on the North Shore. It started out at 1.4m about 18 months ago. After several price reductions it just sold for 925K…… slow but steady decline…

#86 James on 09.05.19 at 1:15 pm

#32 Lead Paint on 09.04.19 at 6:43 pm

This explains Smoking Mans motivation and those that dislike science: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/opinion/trump-voters-chaos.html
_____________________________________________
Trump and his sycophants disregard anything that contradicts their Führers discourses. If you ever look closely at the rogues galley of bootlickers behind him at the rallies it’s scary. The one that scared the hell out of me was those twin girls in the Pennsylvania rally a few years ago. They looked like they were part of Lebensborn experiment or the Grady Twins in The Shining!
God damn this is getting scary.

https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/trump-gets-crowd-to-raise-right-hands-and-swear-to-vote-for-him-video/

#87 IHCTD9 on 09.05.19 at 1:25 pm

Looks like the Libs and Cons are in a dead heat now. It will be interesting to see how accurate the polls were after the fact. Libs will probably take it, in which we’ll get 4 more years of Mr. Dressup while SFA gets done.

The most interesting thing happening in the race is watching the total destruction of the NDP. Layton must be rolling in his grave right now. Jagmeet and Co. have utterly failed to answer the usurping of their lefty shtick by the Libs. They are flopping around like fish out of water, and many of their faithful have understood and are bailing out. They can’t go any further left without looking like a bunch of twits to 90% of the country.

Anyway dogs, better get those debts paid off, build a stack of cash, and harden yourselves against taxes and fees before you get laid off. The near future ain’t looking too good.

#88 Diana on 09.05.19 at 1:40 pm

Anyone have any insights into the real estate prospects for Saint John N.B.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.19 at 1:43 pm

@Mattel Action Figure
“Sure you aren’t imagining this threat? I honestly can’t understand why anyone would be after you for posting what a house was bought and sold for. ”
*****

Au contraire GI Joe

I posted comments on another blog that was a Real Estate only site and the vitriol I received there was hilarious.
I had real estate industry people compare me to Satan ( true).
Accuse me of fornicating with of small animals( not true….yet).
Question my parents lineage( possibly true, DNA results pending).

On and on and on.
Flop put his blog out there innocently believing the truth would be accepted.
He also left enough clues about himself that he could, eventually be tracked down.
Apparently, people with Audi Lease payments can be quite nasty when their livelihood is threatened.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.19 at 1:46 pm

@#86 IHTCD9
“Looks like the Libs and Cons are in a dead heat now.”

++++
I’m not so sure.
I hang up on pollsters now and several close elections have been routs.
The grumbling I’m hearing from friends and business associates coast to coast doesnt seem to cut Mr Trudeau much slack.
It could be a real surprise result come Election Night in the Cons favor.

#91 Leo Trollstoy on 09.05.19 at 1:53 pm

It doesn’t matter who Canadians vote into office

Libs Cons Whatever

Canada will do whatever Trump tells us to do

#92 Craig Lipton on 09.05.19 at 2:08 pm

IHCTD9, so why are people going to vote Liberal if things are looking good in the near future. People are that absent minded or they are zombies on their Iphones.

#93 IHCTD9 on 09.05.19 at 2:28 pm

#82 TS on 09.05.19 at 12:02 pm

…The problem is that Canada is a very naive country and relies on the honor system for people to voluntarily disclose their income abroad. I think there is probably one guy in the basement of the CRA that is tasked with looking for foreign income that isn’t declared. The result is people drive around in their Ferraris and declare 10k in income and laugh at the rest of you paying their bills.
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Canada is not naive, it is broke. Too broke to chase the crooks. We’ve blown all kinds of revenue fighting climate change and ******* up pipeline projects, then turned around and given billions more to corrupt regimes running bronze age dictatorships for Women’s issues. There’s nothing left for actually running an organized society. Been this way a long time. The CRA was pleading with the canuck Panama tax evaders to just pay up in exchange for zero consequences.

Broke with a capital “B”.

It’s like this right across the board. While our leaders worry about the Police spending too much time in certain hoods and fiddle with the gender/ethnic makeup of the force – everyone else is lying on their tax returns, living off the social net, working under the table, ignoring all kinds of regulation, you name it – it’s happening.

Hell, I just met a guy a while back that makes his own hooch in the garage for personal consumption and selling for cash. Not the slightest bit concerned. No one is coming to haul him off to jail.

Everyone has pretty much got the idea I think. The nimrods in Ottawa crap out new laws faster than they can write them down. Then they essentially prevent the cops from enforcing them. The folks working for the various authorities tasked with enforcement of regulation are soft, well paid – and very protective of those fat pensions – best not to push anything too hard.

The real joke is, that it will never get fixed, only get worse. Every day a new Canadian realizes everyone around him/her is doing whatever the hell it is that they want to do – legal or not; and nothing happens to them…

#94 n1tro on 09.05.19 at 2:31 pm

#86 IHCTD9 on 09.05.19 at 1:25 pm
Looks like the Libs and Cons are in a dead heat now. It will be interesting to see how accurate the polls were after the fact. Libs will probably take it, in which we’ll get 4 more years of Mr. Dressup while SFA gets done.

The most interesting thing happening in the race is watching the total destruction of the NDP. Layton must be rolling in his grave right now. Jagmeet and Co. have utterly failed to answer the usurping of their lefty shtick by the Libs. They are flopping around like fish out of water, and many of their faithful have understood and are bailing out. They can’t go any further left without looking like a bunch of twits to 90% of the country.

Anyway dogs, better get those debts paid off, build a stack of cash, and harden yourselves against taxes and fees before you get laid off. The near future ain’t looking too good.
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Cup half full man! NDP under Jag may hopefully prop up a Conservative gov’t. When Libs go loony left it just makes NDP more conservative. One big circle after all.

#95 TS on 09.05.19 at 3:06 pm

#92 IHCTD9

Yup…maybe I was being too PC. Maybe stupid is the best description? That being said, you can never be too broke to go after tax cheats. Even if you pay an auditor 6 figures a year, there are billions and billions out there to be found. Most people don’t even try that hard to hide it. Every dollar invested in stopping tax cheats probably brings in thousands. Best ROI in history.

The problem is people like to believe the honor system works. Probably because most of them are cheating.

#96 Stan Brooks on 09.05.19 at 3:15 pm

#92 IHCTD9 on 09.05.19 at 2:28 pm

Canada is not naive, it is broke.

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Went to Greece and Portugal this summer, in each case with family friends from Toronto.

‘Proud’ owners of 1.5 mil homes, in constant money/debt stress, unable to relax, feeling uncomfortable taking the bills at a restaurant (frankly do not remembering last time they went to a restaurant) that I covered with pleasure.

All realizing that their kids are screwed, with no good jobs and that will never ever be able to retire, all were actively playing lotto in hope of a miracle.

Stupid ignorant brainwashed sheeple.

#97 Sail away on 09.05.19 at 3:21 pm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.19 at 1:43 pm

@Mattel Action Figure
“Sure you aren’t imagining this threat?

*****
Au contraire

I posted comments on another blog that was a Real Estate only site and the vitriol I received there was hilarious.

I had real estate industry people compare me to Satan

Accuse me of fornicating with of small animals

Question my parents lineage

On and on and on.

Apparently, people… can be quite nasty when their livelihood is threatened.

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Funny what people will do when you don’t play nice with them, eh?

This is the exact reason I don’t condemn politicians based on things people say. The venom a keyboard can produce…

#98 Shawn allen on 09.05.19 at 3:34 pm

ETF problems?

I believe it is the case that a stock will rise as soon as it gets into the index that ETFs follow. And will decline if booted from the index. To the extent that happens in any material amount it would indicate an inefficiency.

The ETF is driving stock prices to some extent rather than the other way around which it should be.

I don’t know if stocks rise enough on the announcement of being included in the index to be a concern or not.

#99 Renter's Revenge! on 09.05.19 at 3:36 pm

Ashley’s got that “Dark Triad” look to her face.