Not done yet

Dan’s worried about his FIL. “He’s just turned 65, single, virtually no assets or pension. Made good money in his 50s, but spent a lot helping his family. In his 60s he started having trouble holding down a job and has spent a good amount of time unemployed. So whatever savings he had has gone back to zero.”

Dan himself may also need help, after admitting this: “Love the blog, long time reader. I’m one of those weird people that reads the blog to my wife every night before bed.”

That’s me. The Financial Aphrodisiac. Guaranteed to arouse with all the talk of hormonal, house-horny moisters. Or maybe’s it’s the dogs. Dunno.

Anyway, Dan seeks investment advice. FIL is now working, making $150,000 and can stay at it for about four more years. “Spending is more under control and he can save 5k a month. Our plan is to have him put it into RRSP, use the tax refund for TFSA, and load them both up (lots of room) until he retires. Hopefully by then he’s got enough of a portfolio (3-400k) to draw from in retirement, supplemented by CPP and OAS.

“I am wondering about the correct investment portfolio. A B&D portfolio seems extra risky with recession talk looming and such a short timeframe. But low-yield safe stuff (as the robos recommend for someone who is 65) seems to just be a guarantee to run out of money. Any advice on this, or anything else I should be thinking about would be greatly appreciated! Thanks for your time, and the daily education/entertainment.”

First, the recession may be vastly overstated. It’s become a Media Thing. Time will confirm if we feared something that was undeserving. That’s the opinion of analyst Cam Hui (Pennock Idea Hub) whose latest report today says market reaction to a potential recession has already happened.

“Even if the economy were to enter a downturn in Q4 2019, this does not matter as much for equity investors, because markets are inherently forward looking, and stock prices tend to look ahead 6–12 months. If there is a slowdown or mild recession in late 2019 or early 2020, arguably the market anticipated the weakness when it fell in Q4 2018.”

So if Trump thumps the markets more, Hui adds, it’ll end up being a buying opp, like the oil roil back in 2015. Besides, the Fed’s already reacting, so they yield curve inversion is a ho-hum non-event. But this is not to say risks are gone. The US presidential contest – maybe pitting bulldog, tax-cutting Donald against social justice warrior, tax-loving Warren – could be a zinger in 2020.

“In conclusion, investors should distinguish between real risks and red herrings for stocks. Downside equity risk from a recession is relatively low, and we are less concerned about the signal from the yield curve. If a recession is in the cards, it has to be one of the best anticipated and telegraphed slowdowns in the post-War era.”

Okay, that all makes sense. The fed wants no recession. Trump hates the idea. Wall Street’s already hunkered. Even the Chinese crave US economic growth since they sell so much stuff there. That’s why the trade talks may be back on before long. So rest assured central banks and politicians will be throwing around everything they’ve got over the next 15 months to soften the slide.

Back to Dan.

Avoiding growth to protect against a non-existent slowdown, or because a dude hits 65 is just silly. That’s why letting an algo – designed by somebody who just started to shave – make your investment decisions is a stretch.

Father-in-law must spend little and save the max, of course. Chunking that money into an RRSP and using the tax refund to plump up a TFSA also works. But the risk is in thinking he’s saving for retirement in four years when he hits 69. In reality, he’s investing for lifetime financial security – and that is (hopefully) a 25-year experience. The risk, as stated here with nauseating repetition, is not losing some capital temporarily in an infrequent market downturn, it’s running out of income when you’re 78 years old, and needy.

So, of course FIL should have a balanced and diversified, 60/40 portfolio of low-cost, high-liquidity ETFs. The long-term return has been 6-7%, and there’s no valid reason to think it will dip much below that over the next two decades. The world is still growing. Inflation is low. Technological advance is incredible. China and India are hatching vast and hungry, affluent middle classes. Despite Trump’s best efforts, globalization is the future and will continue to create unbridled opportunities for multinational corps – most of which feed wealth back to shareholders here.

The idea of a B&D portfolio is to profit from this growth, yet have enough fixed-income (safe) assets to reduce volatility while spreading out the risk through diversification. No fee-sucking mutual funds. No roller-coaster stocks. Not too much maple. Commercial real estate. Downside protection but upside potential. Aggressive and conservative. Tough but caring. Sensitive but manly.

Just like this blog. No wonder she likes it, Dan.

76 comments ↓

#1 Mike on 08.26.19 at 3:32 pm

Great post Garth, here’s my take on your comments:

1) The MSM wants to squawk about Chinese tariffs, trade, blah blah blah. While the MSM pundits are trying to scare people, Chinese trade represents less than 3% of US trade. Buy heavily affected shares in AMD, AAPL, MU – or better yet an ETF with these as major holdings. Wait for the downturn into Q3 and BUY BUY BUY

2) Interest rates don’t have much lower to go – buy REIT’s and Preferreds like there’s no tomorrow. Preferreds are a fire sale bargain and a year from now most likely wont be.

3) If you need to borrow, do so to improve your future value – buy a quality, under appreciated business, upgrade your education, etc.

4) Continue reading this blog.

#2 Derek R on 08.26.19 at 3:46 pm

Yeah, Financial Aphrodisiac… My wife also begs me to read your posts to her at bedtime. But not because it makes her frisky. Quite the reverse in fact. She usually starts snoring before I reach the end.

It must be the way I tell ’em.

#3 unbalanced on 08.26.19 at 3:55 pm

Everyone should read this entry twice. Another fine read

#4 Jimmy on 08.26.19 at 4:13 pm

Kinda looks like Smoking Man
sans smokes and glasses.

#5 Jim on 08.26.19 at 4:39 pm

Garth, your blog has inspired me.
https://www.instagram.com/investmentmemes/

#6 Axehead on 08.26.19 at 4:48 pm

Something is off. How can a guy essentially broke, hard time holding a job, start making $150K per year when the average income is somewhere in the range of 70k / year combined? Just wondering what he does.

#7 Jesse on 08.26.19 at 4:49 pm

$XAW is a great all in one ETF to own the world (no maple!). Or, you can buy a balanced mutual fund, MAW104, pretty solid but pricey (I think the MER is 0.9). Also, Vanguard has some balanced ETF’s to look into: VGRO, VBAL, etc.

#8 MF on 08.26.19 at 4:58 pm

101 Ubul on 08.26.19

Yes. Thanks for reiterating my point.

MF

#9 Jager on 08.26.19 at 5:00 pm

“Climate change hoax collapses as Dr. Michael Mann’s bogus “hockey stick” graph defamation lawsuit dismissed by the Supreme Court of British Columbia”
https://tinyurl.com/y2stp3we

Dr. Tim Ball
-The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science-
https://tinyurl.com/yxtg48hr

#10 Ed on 08.26.19 at 5:01 pm

Does it make sense to have preferreds in a TFSA or should one wait until their TSFA is all filled up and start adding them to a non-resisted account instead?

#11 Flop... on 08.26.19 at 5:15 pm

I heard a ruckus out the front of the house yesterday.

I pulled up the blind and saw a face I recognized.

It was Andrew Sheer.

Sort of.

Two badge wearing, Conservative Blue toting, volunteers had been banging on the door with Sheer on a badge and I presume their candidate as well.

The lady started to point at me, as if to say, look there is someone home, after all.

I got all self conscience about having no shirt on and simply pulled the blind back down.

Didn’t know these guys visited on Sunday’s or else I would have had my man boobs covered.

Anyway else been having this experience as yet?

Visiting volunteers lobbying for your vote, that is?

Not people staring at your man boob problem…

M45BC

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 5:29 pm

@#11 Flop

Yep,
The Cons have called me twice on the phone and texted me a third time asking for my support.
Nada from the NDP or the Libs….. yet.

#13 Sandshrew on 08.26.19 at 5:31 pm

They say that if you are married with the modern Canadian Millennial, your life expectancy is cut by over 70 per cents on the century.

I feel sorry for you youngins. You will not live to even see age 30 if you man up and marry these days in Canada.

It’s a good and more financially sustainable idea to marry someone of your own gender than to become a work horse for someone who doesn’t care for you because of SJW politics.

Going Elton John is not all that bad; he’s happily married and might live to age 100.

#14 Yyz2yvr on 08.26.19 at 5:35 pm

Jim

Great work on that Instagram account

#15 NoName on 08.26.19 at 5:39 pm

@ farts

If you give them 43 or 47cad thay’ll have you name on a banner, so they say. Imagine every so often “crowdedelevatorfartz” scrolls thru war room. Would that be funny?

#16 Flop... on 08.26.19 at 5:43 pm

With what is taking place down in Brazil it is probably as good as anytime to run this one.

Key point ***Agriculture represents 3% of global GDP but employees 30% of all workers***.

Different regions of the globe are covered in this article but I will just put the bit up on Brazil and I guess we will see how this changes in the coming years.

Seems like in Canada it is less than 5% of GDP.

Developing countries have a higher percentage in GDP.

Too busy selling condos to each other, gets in the way as well…

M45BC

Visualizing the Importance of Agriculture in the World’s Economy

“One of the things that everyone on earth has in common is the need for food. As a result, agricultural production plays a pivotal role in the world economy. Factors like climate, arable land, access to technology, and amount of human labor affect agricultural production in different parts of the world. Our new series of visualizations take a closer look at how agriculture as a share of GDP varies from country to country, as well as how many workers worldwide are employed through agriculture.”

Americas by Agricultural Output

1. United States – $204.9 billion – 1.42% employed in agriculture
2. Brazil – $74.4 billion – 9.39% employed in agriculture
3. Mexico – $36.7 billion – 12.99% employed in agriculture

https://howmuch.net/articles/role-agriculture-around-the-world

#17 Musk a fraud? on 08.26.19 at 5:59 pm

No Name you’ll like this.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-musk-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=biz&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_mailing=Thematic_Business_08262019%20w/%20Dek&utm_medium=email&bxid=5c7472212ddf9c39973eb38d&cndid=53191968&utm_content=A&utm_term=Thematic_Business

#18 Brian Ripley on 08.26.19 at 6:15 pm

re: #9 Jager

Jager, you are reporting this story incorrectly.

from Michael E. Mann August 23 at 7:38 AM

There have been some wildly untruthful claims about the recent dismissal of libel litigation against Tim Ball circulating on social media. Here is our statement:

The defendant Ball did not “win” the case. The Court did not find that any of Ball’s defenses were valid. The Court did not find that any of my claims were *not* valid.

The dismissal involved the alleged exercise of a discretion on the Court to dismiss a lawsuit for delay. I have an absolute right of appeal. My lawyers will be reviewing the judgment and we will make a decision within 30 days.

The provision in the Court’s order relating to costs does NOT mean that I will pay Ball’s legal fees.

This ruling absolutely does not involve any finding that Ball’s allegations were correct in fact or amounted to legitimate comment. In making his application based on delay, Ball effectively told the world he did not want a verdict on the real issues in the lawsuit.

Source Link: https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/2470358663020321?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARBya9fGb1LNL5elqpKe13gDo54QvdvazeZRk5YgexeZssKFgL-G4sR56fzkxlYgeDECKH3usfAsbaPzVrNkSHfEaJPTZvdAB6CoKsBZai2bmDppfu9sLWJwMmNeaxGpIadX_IkE9bhPGONdvytbQ4gRniS2IALNbZdnMtuBqvyKhSmcz-CDqjSh67jJggmtYCjlT6FV4BPvlhnIk6FzUhWIzO-ap7azzm9tgH6V17dhDnfh7eaVrNbVDaxpBcMZqlAKW4PuG0AwmZazYiBxbUjLX8_UNqEluWkSE8b8AOnFKxFMPKELKg85SuHWiWDEaxAt2y0Z0o7D3OJ6X2WXSw&__tn__=-R

If you do a bit of research, you will find that Tim Ball is spreading misinformation…

See: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Tim_Ball for the following quote:

<In 2011, Ball found himself at the receiving end of a couple of libel suits. In February, University of Victoria climatologist (and now a member of the British Columbia legislature) Andrew Weaver filed a lawsuit against Ball for his op-eds that accused Weaver of incompetence and corruption. In March, Penn State climatologist Michael Mann filed a lawsuit against Ball and his think tank for publishing statements on their websites that claimed Mann was complicit in a "cover-up" of Climategate and that he had committed scientific fraud.[14]

Since the suits were launched Canada Free Press has retracted one of the interviews with Ball on the website.[15] Furthermore, they seem to have scrubbed a good deal of Ball's articles and Ball-related material.[16]

In February, 2018, the suit by Weaver was dismissed on the grounds that Ball's attack on Weaver was so stupid and inept that it couldn't be considered libelous thus doing no injury to Weaver's reputation to an informed reader. [17] Therefore the official judgement of the Canadian court system is that Tim Ball is either an incompetent idiot or someone pretending to be an incompetent idiot.

“incompetent idiot” … this is a close cousin descriptor to “useful idiot” which is how the Russia secret service refers to Donald Trump (see Malcolm Nance’s “The plot to destroy democracy” https://www.amazon.com/Plot-Destroy-Democracy-Undermining-Dismantling/dp/0316484814

#19 Shawn on 08.26.19 at 6:20 pm

Commercial real estate? Can you elaborate?

#20 Shawn on 08.26.19 at 6:23 pm

You mean REITs right?

#21 Rargary on 08.26.19 at 7:14 pm

What does Dan’s wife do if he gets sick or can’t work for some other reason?

#22 Barb on 08.26.19 at 7:30 pm

Glad that Commercial Real Estate is included.
Now if only mine would sell…

#23 Ken M. on 08.26.19 at 7:36 pm

#17 Blackdog on 08.25.19 at 6:23 pm
@Ken #6, disability insurance is more important to the over 60 person who still needs to work. How are you going to support yourself and those who depend on you if you are alive but disabled? Better to be dead perhaps? …kidding…sort of. Of course, it is also super expensive to buy private disability insurance at any age, but especially at 60+, so hopefully one has such insurance through their employment.

Regarding life insurance, if you still need it at 60+, term is the best way to go. Don’t get sucked into the ‘whole life’ or universal type policies that masquerade as investments.
——————–
there you go smoking man

#24 Morty on 08.26.19 at 7:58 pm

65 and no savings, making a $150k a year…. Only in Canada. Young readers take note and don’t let this be you. Start the snowball early in life (as in your twenties) and find a long hill with wet snow as the great Warren Buffett says. I did and I retired at 55 with portfolio returns that would make Garth jealous and a collection of real estate in the GTA.

#25 Shawn Allen on 08.26.19 at 8:10 pm

Infaltion Numbers

Whenever the official inflation numbers are mentioned Stan and others go on tilt and claim the numbers are way below reality.

Maybe it would help if Stas Cananda dewscribed it the way Alberta does:

“On a year-over-year basis, Albertans paid 1.3% more in July 2019 for the goods and services that comprise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) than in the same month a year ago, which was below the national average rise in CPI of 2.0%.”

The key being “for the goods and services that comprise the CPI”

This avoids the claim that “inflation” is such and such and the implication that there is some economy wide inflation number.

Instead it makes the correct claim that this is the inflation ONLY in the items as weighted in the CPI basket. To argue with the number one should first look closely at what is in the CPI and the weights.

The CPI tries to represent an average. Of course there are precisely zero people who are precisely average and purchase precisely the goods and services in CPI at the assigned weights.

Anyhow, I do know that government worker pensions in Alberta are indexed at 60% of Alberta CPI if that makes Stan feel better.

#26 Shawn Allen on 08.26.19 at 8:12 pm

#20 Rargary on 08.26.19 at 7:14 pm

What does Dan’s wife do if he gets sick or can’t work for some other reason?

********************

Work?

#27 Joe on 08.26.19 at 8:20 pm

Trump….Boris…Brexit….China tariffs…an old globalist like you Garth must be having a fit.

#28 Felix on 08.26.19 at 8:23 pm

Yep, today is a Nothing Day.

Dan’s FIL probably wasted his money on the wrong breed of pets.

Cats will make you rich.

#29 n1tro on 08.26.19 at 8:24 pm

#17 Brian Ripley on 08.26.19 at 6:15 pm

Sounds like the doublespeak of a loser in denial.
“The defendant Ball did not “win” the case. ” — Being the plaintiff and not getting a conviction makes you what exaxtly? The winner as always are the lawyers who will happily refile/redefend.

#30 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.26.19 at 8:25 pm

#5 Jim on 08.26.19 at 4:39 pm
Garth, your blog has inspired me.
https://www.instagram.com/investmentmemes/

—————–

This was awesome! Thank you for posting.

#31 n1tro on 08.26.19 at 8:32 pm

Maybe it is too early in the night but how come no outrage about today’s pic? Poor old man having to bear his goodies for all to see! He’s just like me but with the beard. Can’t seem to grow one. Damn my hairless monkey ancestors.

Garth, for equality since it’s 2019, I expect you to show a picture of an equally aged female with the same amount of skin/tattoos exposed for tomorrow’s blog post or I will be filling with the human rights tribunal.

:)

#32 jane24 on 08.26.19 at 8:42 pm

A while ago there was chat on this blog about Trudeau Junior’s new program to help first time buyers get on the RE ladder. Consensus including Garth was that the program was too small and pathetic to be of use to anyone.

WELL in Montreal many folk live in triplexes, which is three apts in a single semi-detached building. Usually the set-up is two 3 bed flats, one each on the first and second floor and one single bed flat in the basement. Family members have brought one of these investment buildings for their first time buyer daughter under this federal new home buyers program. In order to be legit within this program she has to nominally live there only for a year.

The two 3 bed flats are rented out and the bottom small flat has been left empty for now as daughter actually lives at home with her parents. They will direct some mail there. After one year they can then rent that one out too.

Now this is totally within the program and clever thinking by the relatives and shows you how free money from the govt can be claimed no matter how unpromising that federal program looks at first glance.

False. The program is not yet in place. – Garth

#33 Piet on 08.26.19 at 9:29 pm

@#11 Flop
Our Green MP’s office called us weeks ago and we arranged for them to set up a sign on our property when the time comes. Hope the rest of Canada gets on board.

#34 JettaFlair on 08.26.19 at 9:47 pm

@11 Flop
I’ve received the text from “Sarah” from the Cons w/ an option to reply “Yes” or “No”

Seemed more like a Phishing scheme to me…

#35 NoOneOfConsequence on 08.26.19 at 10:04 pm

If the B is mostly there to calm me in down times…and I am not prone to making rash decisions…isn’t it overall smarter to just hold the D side of the equation?

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 10:14 pm

@#34 JetFlare

I had the same text….. Deleted.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 10:23 pm

@#32 Jane24

My my.
Family members possibly engaging in fraud….
How ….deliciously intriguing….
Upstairs/ Downstairs and all that Tommy Rot eh wot?
Taking a walk on the “other side of the tracks”….with the great unwashed plebes.
I like it!

But enough of dabbling with rabble.
Let’s hear how the Pizza Pilazzo is doing.
How the dual citizenship is doing.
Both feet firmly planted on both sides of the Channel.

Loading up on anti depression medication, pain killers and toilet paper before heading back to Blighty?
I’m thinking a truck load of all three items will guarantee financial security for decades to come if Boris’s Brexit Bluff is called Oct 31st…

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 10:28 pm

@#31 n1tro
“I expect you to show a picture of an equally aged female with the same amount of skin/tattoos exposed for tomorrow’s blog post…”
+++++

Time out.
Where’s your “equal opportunity” agenda?
She has to have a facial beard just as white and just as long….it’s all about empowerment……

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 10:31 pm

@#15 No Name

You are a bad bad man….but I like the way you think…..

:)

#40 Smart Millenial on 08.26.19 at 11:19 pm

Dan illustrates just how dumb most boomers are with their money.
They are so used to the abundance of well paying jobs that they have no grasp of saving money for a rainy day or living within their means.
Their next paycheque will always solve their problem and rob Peter to pay Paul.

#41 Westcdn on 08.26.19 at 11:36 pm

If you are a leader, you know how tough it is to keep the majority happy never mind the 3rd that will despise you even if you walk on water – my favorite Klein joke: an Albertan sees Ralph’s dog walking on the surface of a lake and says too bad it can’t swim. My word of advice is first watch what I do and then listen to what I say for the direction I am leaning – I like to talk things out before action but I will go with instinct if I don’t have the time or angered which takes effort/time. Usually you will find me alone and resolutely holding the middle/center where both sides try to shoot me.

My JE preferred and option bets started on the right foot today – little money involved but bragging rights are fun and give reputation. Studs rule?

#42 Jager on 08.26.19 at 11:56 pm

#18 Brian Ripley

This is of course Mr Manns summary and not the legal council (interpretation) of the defendant.

“The Court did not find that any of my claims were *not* valid.” Is this because the data in question was not released to the court? No data no consensus. Is this simply Fake News?

The followup from rationalwiki is simply legal summation (libel case) bereft of any hard science pertaining to anthropogenic climate change. Kick it up a notch (tone set by wiki) and you now have a lurid predicate for “ad hominem” attacks.

Questions

How does one know when climate change may be attributed to anthropogenic causes or as a natural physical process. These processes frequently devastating as often noted in our planets history? Note: Is the Earth still seeking equillibrium after the last ice age?

Further, how is it determined which changes if any may effect significant (earth threatening) conditions especially when the data is so often missing or skewed?

#43 Fredrick Farmer on 08.27.19 at 1:05 am

1st. The numbers simply don’t support a recession hitting the US markets. The media frenzy is Trump Hate, 100%. The talking A – Holes are spouting nonsense. Ex: Bill Maher ” I want a recession to get Trump out of office, too bad if a few people get hurt”! Serious cases of Trump Derangement Syndrome are widespread. This is like the Salem Witch Trials, pure mass hysterics, based on nothing indicating recession. In fact every responsible analyst says the opposite. This silly wave of negative media is great news to me, a dividend investor, because as prices soften, yields go up. If anyone thinks utilities will fail and we’ll move into communal yurts, get your head examined. The globalists are on the last gasp, Trumps winning. Cry about sure, but don’t not invest because of it.

And, making $150K and only being able to save $5000 a month. Proof positive Canadians are getting screwed by our Liberal politicians. By lowering taxes we’d have a vibrant consumer economy less reliant on carbon and Chinese Dollar Stores. Statistics show that increased disposable income sparks spikes in new births. Look at families in Texas with six kids per family vs 1.2 in Trudeaus Canada.

If you can leave Canada you must. Otherwise take your dentures out and advertise your services on Craigslist. Retirement norms are spinning away, and out of your reach. Unless your a coddled sheltered civil servant then of course your DB will let laugh and spit at the fools who aren’t.

#44 Smoking Man on 08.27.19 at 2:02 am

Met the wife 40 years ago..

I was 19, she was 16.. Lied about her age..
She’s a bit older now with a few extra pounds, and a few wrinks I would not trader her nothing..I love her.

Kids your teachers hate that story.. They never want you to feel that..
Globalism is pure evil..

https://youtu.be/TUWCdkzgfSo

#45 Smoking Man on 08.27.19 at 2:12 am

I will never apologise for my toxic masculinity

https://youtu.be/URwX1oWdnUY

I’m the Smoking Man

#46 Stylite on 08.27.19 at 6:22 am

#10 Ed on 08.26.19 at 5:01 pm
“Does it make sense to have preferreds in a TFSA or should one wait until their TSFA is all filled up and start adding them to a non-resisted account instead?”

================

I am also very curious about the same question.

#47 MF on 08.27.19 at 7:24 am

#43 Fredrick Farmer on 08.27.19 at 1:05 am

It’s almost like this poster turns up in some iteration every day.

Starting to look like the same troll factory consistently squeezing, tensing and grimacing to poop out these posts on the page for us here.

Maybe he’s another expat in Thailand 100% dependent on globalism coming here to tell us about how evil globalism is.

Maybe he’s another delusional US based expat living in a gated community unaware that his new home is verging on civil war, or, 21 trillion reasons why the tax cuts were a bad move.

Perhaps failed private sector worker looking to blame everyone else for his problems.

I guess it’s much easier to blame others than take responsibility.

MF

#48 Gravy Train on 08.27.19 at 7:45 am

Despite Trump’s best efforts, globalization is the future and will continue to create unbridled opportunities for multinational corps – most of which feed wealth back to shareholders here. – Garth

#44 Smoking Man on 08.27.19 at 2:02 am
“Globalism is pure evil..”

Hey, Smokey. Do you even read Garth’s posts? Why do you post your blather on this blog? Garth doesn’t share your opinion on anything! Go away!

Oh, and I see from the pic that you’ve been working out! :)

#49 TurnerNation on 08.27.19 at 8:14 am

Y’all enjoy your dividends, always dipped in the financial blood of retail investors. Support that Banking Mafia running this county.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that the Ontario Securities Commission is pursuing settlements with Royal Bank of Canada and TD Bank in the first major Canadian regulatory action as part of global investigations into foreign-exchange traders. The Globe’s Clare O’Hara and David Milstead write that from 2011 to 2013, employees at both banks used electronic chat rooms “many hundreds” of times to share confidential customer information with foreign-exchange traders at outside firms. The traders at both banks had a “profit motive,” the OSC said Monday in a statement of allegations. “Traders sought an advantage to make more profitable trades on behalf of their bank, which in turn would benefit the trader through performance incentives.” The OSC has scheduled hearings for both banks Friday. Details of the settlement are not yet available. In 2013, the little-known world of foreign-currency trading made headlines on news that traders at some of the world’s biggest banks had possibly colluded, using chat rooms with names like The Cartel, The Bandits’ Club and The Mafia. The activity was alleged to have stretched back a decade. TD and RBC imposed bans on its traders’ use of the chat rooms in late 2013. © 2019 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#50 n1tro on 08.27.19 at 8:54 am

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.19 at 10:28 pm
@#31 n1tro
“I expect you to show a picture of an equally aged female with the same amount of skin/tattoos exposed for tomorrow’s blog post…”
+++++

Time out.
Where’s your “equal opportunity” agenda?
She has to have a facial beard just as white and just as long….it’s all about empowerment……
————————-
Most women can’t grow facial hair but I hear your point. How about as a compromise, in place of the facial hair, the lovely tattooed woman in tonight’s blog must have equal amounts of underarm hair which the old dude is missing? Garth can use her as a spokesperson for having a diversified portfolio or over leveraging in a single asset.

“Be balanced, be diversified….or Sheila will pay you a visit!”

#51 dharma bum on 08.27.19 at 9:29 am

Dan.
Just a regular, everyday, run of the mill dopey dude.
Worked a lifetime.
Zero to show for it.
Planning to retire on $350K?
Plus CPP?
What’s that gonna generate?
Oh yah.
A poverty line existence.
What Dan really needs is a serious Sugar Mamma!

#52 Eks dee Siple on 08.27.19 at 9:50 am

From yesterday: thanks to the blogdog who sent the link. But no, wavefronts and phase shifts do not account for light slowing down and then speeding back up. You can isolate any of the colours separately (lasers) and you will see the same effect. The medium does not absorb the kinetic energy and and then give it right back. That’s just stupid.

Light is not being propagated; rather, what we perceive as light, is simply a perturbation of the aether. I have the answers, I was just giving you all the opportunity to expand your minds a bit, like I said. And this is related to my previous post from another day where I told you about the upcoming energy breakthrough on the horizon. Google away. Good luck.

#53 NoName on 08.27.19 at 11:21 am

#52 Eks dee Siple on 08.27.19 at 9:50 am

What are taking about in energy, thorium reactors???

#54 mark on 08.27.19 at 11:48 am

A good estimate is 25 times the yearly amount you figure you need in retirement.
If you got that say good by to the MAN…..

#55 TurnerNation on 08.27.19 at 12:07 pm

Got Gold? Oops wrong weblog.

#56 Stan Brooks on 08.27.19 at 12:42 pm

#55 TurnerNation on 08.27.19 at 12:07 pm
Got Gold? Oops wrong weblog.

As I said: gold stocks/junior miners and long term treasuries will explode. Gold bugs are having a field day.

Rates will only go down and then nominally negative, with inflation north of 6-8 %. For a decade or two…..

Gold was $35 in 1971, now is $1550, average yearly return of 10 %, pretty good for an useless rock.

So the questions is: which is wrong: the asset or the measure.. 98 % loss of purchasing power of currency in less than 5 decades folks.

#57 Stan Brooks on 08.27.19 at 12:53 pm

In the meantime, in the land of the blind:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/profits-canadas-big-banks-saying-080000960.html

Policymakers have spent years worrying about Canadians’ debt loads, but Royal Bank’s performance suggests there’s room for more. Borrowers wouldn’t be taking on all that new debt if they weren’t feeling confident about their prospects, either. As TD Bank analyst Mario Mendonca put it, “We expect mortgage growth to make a healthy recovery this quarter, reflecting a reasonably strong spring selling season, particularly in Ontario.”

That is right, lower rates and higher house prices coming, not in terms of real stuff but in the terms of sheisse poloz bank notes/currency.
Useless, worthless stuff, worth 1/100 of a brick of a shack in the middle of nowhere.

Cheers retirees and savers, betting on how much more you can take it. Indefinitely more apparently.

#58 Brian Ripley on 08.27.19 at 1:06 pm

#9 & #42 Jager will no doubt not be interested, but perhaps others are; the following link is for readers of this blog who are confused about who Tim Ball is and why the post #8 Jager’s is misleading:
https://www.desmogblog.com/timothy-f-ball-tim-ball

Tim Ball and his cohort believe that “Global Warming Is the Biggest Deception in History.”

The rest of us can see the environmental damage that humans have been causing since the agricultural and industrial revolutions began… we see it in the air we breath and the water we drink. We see it in our forests, our oceans and our planet’s species and bio diversity.

We see it in our physical health data:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming_on_humans

With respect to Michael Mann’s (1998 ‘hockey stick’) work, here are 3rd party defenses of his team’s work by other scientists with additional data July 24 2019):
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/global-warming-today-unlike-last-2000-years-climate-shifts

Meanwhile “83 Plus Environmental Rules Being Rolled Back Under Trump – Part One” as reported July 3, 2019 here:
https://www.indiantime.net/story/2019/07/03/environment/83-plus-environmental-rules-being-rolled-back-under-trump-part-one/31818.html

#59 TurnerNation on 08.27.19 at 1:13 pm

I can brook the Brook’s logic. NUGT to 50.

#60 Bigriders Nonno on 08.27.19 at 1:14 pm

DELETED

#61 Exurban on 08.27.19 at 1:19 pm

Preferred shares in Canadian companies already come with a significant tax break on the dividend payments. It’s probably better to fill your TFSA with other things like ETFs. I’m positive Garth has discussed this issue before, but if I’ve gotten it wrong I should be corrected harshly :^)

Speaking of harsh correction, Dr. Tim Ball was AWARDED COSTS by the court that dismissed Michael Mann’s lawsuit. Judges rarely do that. That tells you a lot about the merits of the suit.

On the fake news front, the “Amazon rainforest fires” are fake news. It’s not rainforest, it’s other land being cleared for agriculture. I’m not saying this is a good thing, I’m saying that news reports of the jungles being destroyed by climate change are fake news.

#62 Ubul on 08.27.19 at 1:19 pm

#18 Brian Ripley

If you “delay” the case for 8(!) years by refusing to provide the actual data that verifies the claim, the court should have dismissed the case long time ago. It is abusing the legal system.

If there is an appeal, the court should take it on the condition that the appeal includes all the data delayed for 8 years. Otherwise it would be just the continuation of abusing the system.

#63 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.27.19 at 1:32 pm

@58 Brain Ripley-

Well, believe it or not Ripley you shot your credibility all to hell with that cockamamie proxy votes for mommies proposal.

So yeah, scroll wheel.

#64 Stan Brooks on 08.27.19 at 2:27 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rbc-td-seeking-settlements-over-231703265.html

“Staff of the Ontario Securities Commission have identified many hundreds of prohibited disclosures throughout 2011-2013,” said 11-page statement of allegations filed against each bank.

The statements allege confidential information, including trade sizes, timing, price, or stop-loss levels, was shared by the bank’s traders with other participants in chatrooms or received to gain a potential advantage in the market over traders at other firms who did not have access to this information.

The commission noted that currency traders at both banks were involved in several large chatrooms involving traders from other international banks in addition to bilateral chats.

Rigged currency trading.
3 % + commission on currency exchange.
zero rates on deposits.
account ‘maintenance’ fees.
No responsibility for ultra subprime loans/thanks CHMC.
record profits.

I bet no one of these ‘traders’ will be penalized (this is by definition illegal activity – conspiracy to commit securities fraud), let me guess, that will be handled by the securities commission of Ontario that can not enforce criminal penalties. Some fines and the live goes on…. Until it does not…

#65 Ace Goodheart on 08.27.19 at 2:49 pm

Looks like a bunch of ETFs are going to have to change themselves into a type of mutual fund to avoid big tax changes coming down the pipe.

ETFs are of course another animal of the trust fund species, a much maligned tax free vehicle built on the old man known as the trust.

Look to hear from your ETF in the near future as fund managers try to restructure and avoid the tax

No tax is proposed on ETF holdings. – Garth

#66 Lee on 08.27.19 at 3:26 pm

#9 Jager,

I suspect he couldn’t find his notes after all these years. Source data often gets lost. That’s why lawyers always ask for it.

#67 Victor V on 08.27.19 at 3:41 pm

No need to tweak B-20 stress tests for ‘shrewd’ Canadians: Scotia CEO

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/no-need-to-tweak-b-20-stress-tests-for-shrewd-canadians-scotia-ceo-1.1307522

#68 Hanna Apter on 08.27.19 at 3:52 pm

Just don’t worry about ETF’s tax structure being under attack. The Trudeau, Morneau Federal Liberals are going to start attacking the TFSA again but with more tricks this time.

#69 jess on 08.27.19 at 3:53 pm

According to Schumpeter, the “gale of creative destruction” describes the “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one”.

Koch legacy
operational complex web of dark-money lobby groups and think tanks, e.g. this archived footage, preserved on C-SPAN, of the 2009 Americans for Prosperity annual gala.”…
=====================
https://www.c-span.org/video/?289277-1/defending-american-dream-summit&start=10673
https://theintercept.com/2019/08/26/david-koch-donald-trump/
===========
Koch’s central clearing house for doling out political grants. Donald McGahn, Koch’s campaign operation lawyer, became Trump’s campaign and White House attorney. And Mark Block, a key Americans for Prosperity official in Wisconsin, seen in the C-SPAN video reporting out the success of his growing chapter in mobilizing anti-Obama demonstrations, was the first to introduce Cambridge Analytica’s services to Steve Bannon, according to a whistleblower account.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?289277-1/defending-american-dream-summit&start=10673

#70 Lee on 08.27.19 at 4:07 pm

#68 Hanna Aptor,

Like what? They already tax it if it used as a day-trading account.

#71 jess on 08.27.19 at 4:54 pm

an actual legal theory called “cat’s paws” theory of liability for employment discrimination and retaliation claims based on a Supreme Court decision written by Botta’s fellow Italian-American Justice Antonin Scalia in 2011.

Opinion recap: “Cat’s paw” theory upheld form the Scotus Blog:

As finally crafted by the Scalia opinion, the “cat’s law” theory of liability falls upon the employer only if these steps play out in a sequence: (1) a supervisor of the worker takes a step (writing up a negative report, for example) that is done for a biased reason, (2) that supervisor intends to get the worker fired, demoted or otherwise penalized, and (3) the supervisor’s step is found to be the “proximate” cause of the ultimate decision — even if the executive or supervisor who actually carries out the firing or other penalty is someone else, and that person was not at all biased.

From the Obermayer Rebmann Maxwell & Hippel LLP. HR Legalist blog

The Fable

“The Monkey and the Cat” is a fable (dating back to the 17th century or perhaps earlier) about a monkey who persuades a cat to pull chestnuts from the embers of a fire, only to take the reward for himself and leave the cat nursing a burnt paw. The fable is the source of the English idiom “cat’s paw” – essentially, one who does another’s dirty work. The story of the clever monkey and the unsuspecting cat has also worked its way into modern employment discrimination law.

“Cat’s paw liability” describes a scenario when an employee or supervisor, motivated by discriminatory intent, influences an otherwise unbiased decision-maker to take an adverse employment action against another employee. In the end, the employer is still held responsible.

A 2011 Supreme Court Opinion, Staub v. Proctor Hospital, made the cat’s paw theory slightly more employee-friendly. After Staub, the employer can no longer automatically defend a cat’s paw case by arguing that the non-biased decision-maker investigated other materials (such as the employee’s personnel file) before making the ultimate decision. As long as the biased supervisor’s input is a factor (but not necessarily the sole factor) in the decision, the employer can still end up getting burned.

http://retheauditors.com/?s=kpmg

=========================
KPMG profited from the scheme by receiving annual fees from the clients, and in some cases, a percentage of the taxes dodged. The most successful KPMG salespeople were known internally as “product champions.”

A KPMG flow chart of the secret Chan companies, filed in court, shows that the brothers named themselves, their spouses and their children as the “eligible persons” that could receive the tax-free “gifts.” (Federal Court of Canada)

Canada Revenue Agency in the Federal Court of Canada over a decade-long offshore tax dodge.

Numerous internal emails filed in court this summer reveal the Chans’ involvement in a KPMG offshore scheme so secret that neither tax collectors nor even their spouses were ever supposed to find out.

The KPMG offshore tax dodge helped wealthy clients set up shell companies on the Isle of Man, a tiny tax haven in the middle of the Irish Sea. It promised clients they could pay “no tax” on their investments and hide money from their ex-spouses.

Over time, interest income from the overseas investments would accumulate untaxed, and funds would also be sent back to family members or other “eligible persons” as untaxed “gifts.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/b-c-billionaire-brothers-use-of-kpmg-offshore-tax-scheme-exposed-in-emails-1.5261032

Read more: https://www.seriousfacts.com/amazon-rainforest-facts/#ixzz5xppiWKRk

https://globalnews.ca/news/5819167/amazon-forest-fires-satellite-images/

#72 Marco on 08.27.19 at 5:15 pm

Why bother? Soon you all be working for Chinese.
Your salaries will change, your diet will change and you will be replaced by Chinese workers because you are slow (fat fingers) and you are lazy (fat). Goodbye brutal anglo capitalism. Goodbye networking, nepotism and tribal economy. Education will be counted as an asset. Canadian experience, what?

#73 Jack Manning on 08.27.19 at 7:46 pm

Lee, I can give you a list of possible tax changes and don’t anyone say in the future that I gave them the ideas because Liberals are masters of taking others people money without their permission.

Here they are, 1) including all income, capital gains, dividends, interest etc. as part of calculating OAS, GIS and other clawbacks and other benefits reduction.

2) Minimum withdraws as like RRSP’s by a certain age.

3) Getting rid of the inflation indexation or reducing it.

4) Just like RRSP’s, you can’t get back any withdrawal room, once it is gone that is it.

5) Putting a time limit on unused TFSA contribution room. If you don’t use it you lose it.

6) Putting a lifetime cap or maximum TFSA contribution amount like RESP’s.

7) Lowering to straight out elimination by being disqualifying the annual contribution amount from it’s current $6,000 on certain higher income earners like in U.S. roth IRA.

8) Making it taxable in the name of a surviving spouse on some or all of that TFSA that is named as a successor etc.

I can go on and on and who knows what else the Trudeau, Morneau Federal Liberals are up to. If you want to keep paying more and more and getting much less than they are for you.

#74 Bang bang bang on 08.28.19 at 12:25 am

It depends on how you read a net worth statement. Steve counts the appreciation unrealized in his townhouse, and most likely his rusty crate and designer dog in thier too. Fact is that’s nonsense. You can’t include a real estate holding or portion there of on a net worth statement in the real world because it is not a fungible asset.

Count only the cash on hand, that is net worth. That is why really estate millionaires ate granted very small margin on an investment account, usually 20% or less. A HELOC is a banking joke. It’s selling you debt when you thought they were ackowleging your entitlement. One word, bamboozled.

You’re not a millionaire until you have a million investable. Only .085% of Canadians have 1 million + in case to invest. The rest are the subjects if s fickle God who gives today and takes tomorrow, the trixster imp, Real Estate.

If you think it’s normal to have million dollar price tags on homes occupied by fools who turn 80% and more of pre-tax income to the bank for shelter then you”re a new species of experiment yet to be capped. Think about it rationally. Justice delayed is not justice denied. You’re on the chopping block every day.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/jim-cramer-on-recession-fears-i-think-the-yield-curve-linkage-is-wrong.html

On the other side, reality might break through and a few of you might survive, very few. Most won’t. In a market based system which took 300 years to develop but then rolled over, consequences are a bitch.

#75 Scott Bryer on 08.28.19 at 11:24 am

They could also make the TFSA like an RRSP to qualify for. What I mean is you have to have earned income such as employment income or C.P.P. disability. This would hurt retirees and others that have no earned income or working income.

#76 Prince Polo on 08.29.19 at 6:51 am

Is that a photo of Santa in the off-season?