Dr. Garth

The Dr. is IN.

I have been regularly reading your blog for the last 6 months. It’s been a great source of information, as well as self-reflection. At 35, married and 2 kids, I have realized I am far behind in terms of net worth compared to some your other readers. Our household income is around 250K. Total savings including RRSP and TFSAs is around 200k. We have been renting a semi in GTA for 2000 for the last 3 years, while the average rent in the area for semis has gone up to 2,600.

I have been holding off buying a house, though wife really wants to, for the last year or so. However recently there has been an opportunity that is making me rethink. There is a builder in Milton offering a zero percent mortgage for the first 3 years, on semi costing around 780K, with 15 percent down payment. I am thinking it’s a sound investment to buy that property, rent it out (I have researched, others are renting these properties for 2700 a month- which covers the entire mortage) while I continue to stay in my current rental (saving 600 every month vs the market) till my landlord decides to kick me out (potentially a year or 2 from now).

Would love to get your thoughts on this? Am I making a big mistake buying a year or so before a recession? Thanks a bunch for all your awesomeness! Your blog is such a great resource. Thanks, Raheel.

Okay, R, if your Toronto-dwelling wife wants a house, why would you even consider buying a rental for other people to live in, way out in Milton where there are probably bears? Just because it sounds cheap? Because the mortgage rate is 0% for thirty-six months?

Then give yer head a shake. Fuzzy thinking will get you into trouble. Bigly. First, the interest you’d save over three years – about $32,000 – is already priced into the house. This is a sales gimmick, the same as reducing the selling sticker on the property. But it’s not much of a discount – just 4%. A little dickering without the 0% mortgage would get you a better deal.

Second, you’d lose money. Even a 0% mortgage plus property tax and insurance equals at least $2,800 a month. Add in the lost opportunity cost of your $120,000 downpayment, and the true cost is $3,400 – far less than rent. Third, this is a naked new-build house. No trees. No deck. No grass. No backyard. What kind of tenants will you attract? Fourth, as a rental from Day One any gains in value will be taxed as capital gains. If you sell in a year or two, profits will be considered business income and taxed at your marginal rate. Fifth, this is in Milton. Get a grip. It’s probably snowing there already.

Of course, this little insanity would also consume more than half your liquid net worth while plunging you into debt of more than $600,000, and delivering negative cash flow. But on Sundays your wife can go out to weed the yard. That should work out well.

First off, I’d like to thank you for the nightly reads. Your blog was recommended to me by my father and now I’m hooked. It is usually where our conversations end up (did you read Garth’s blog today!?) My wife and I (30, married a month) have approximately 50 k sitting in our TFSA in a high interest saving account. I’ve been advised by my…financial advisor that we should not be invested in any ETF’s right now since we are planning on using this money to buy our first home and that we can’t risk losing it by investing it in the market. I am finding it difficult not being invested in ETF’s since like you mentioned in your NOPE blog on August 20th, ” High-interest savings accounts barely pace inflation, and rates of return will be falling even lower in the months to come”.

Since our parents who would like us to stay close by, and rates being at 2.5-2.99%, we believe the next quarter or so may be a good opportunity for us to get into the housing market. With that being said, are there any other investment vessels we can consider besides HISA that won’t eat up a portion of our investments if a recession does present itself? Thanks for your help and all of your advice…Please feel free to use me in your blog, this moister has thick enough skin lol. Thanks, Steve.

I hope so. Bad idea. You’ve got fifty grand between you, have been married a few weeks and plan on buying a house within three months? How can you be 30 and be so naive? Unless you make a huge joint income, you’ll never qualify for enough (given the stress test) to buy more than a concrete box in some desolate tower – which you can rent for far less. This is a pathetic amount of money for two working adults to have accumulated. Did you blow it all on a honeymoon to Nevis? And how do you know if this union is going to work? Is this your bright idea, or hers? Do you really want to lock yourselves into a steaming pile of debt (and a potential nightmare getting out if the thing blows up)?

As for your question, keep the money in the HISA if you’re seriously house-horny. If not, the entire $50,000 invested for a year might earn enough to buy a new couch. Then you’ll have a place to sleep.

Hi Garth, I follow your blog and investment advice frequently. I’m contemplating helping my 32 year old son buy a house in Toronto.

I delayed over the past 10 yrs thinking major corrections were likely to happen but the opposite occurred and the prices soared. There is much talk of a looming Canadian recession so wondering if we could be on the cusp of a correction? Naturally he has a long term horizon for the house value so wondering if we should just jump in. Thanks, John.

There’s no recession looming, except in the media headlines. The economy is fine. Unemployment is low. Companies are making money. Little inflation. Robust consumer spending. Sure, a slowdown is inevitable after a decade of growth, but it’s not even close yet. When it comes, house prices will decline. So why not wait? Maybe by then your adult, middle-aged child will then be able to stand on his own. Like you did.

Gotta go. Tee time.

103 comments ↓

#1 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:43 pm

Raheel hasn’t been reading long enough to get to know Mayor of Milton. Where are you buddy? Tell Raheel why Milton is the best place to invest!

#2 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:47 pm

Hey Steve, my 2yr son has almost $10K in his RESP. I hope that gives you perspective on your situation.

#3 Billy on 08.22.19 at 4:48 pm

Some educated people (not just media) appear to think a recession is a realistic possibility in the not too distant future. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-recession-us-china-trade-war-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-08

#4 Nonplused on 08.22.19 at 5:02 pm

Golf – a lovely walk through a perfectly manicured garden ruined by a little white ball.

#5 Brought to you by the CPC on 08.22.19 at 5:18 pm

Pierre Trudeau was a Canadian politician and leader of the Liberal Party. He rose to power as Chancellor of Canada in 1933 and later Prüme Minister in 1934. During his Liberal dictatorship from 1933 to 1945, he initiated the Silent Wars in North America by invading Quebec on 1 September 1979.

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.19 at 5:20 pm

Tee Time.

Ahhhh the Lunenburg Golf course.
I almost scraped the rental on the side of one of the cannons guarding the entrance….. I was gawking at the hawk on the post just outside the entrance……

#7 islander on 08.22.19 at 5:20 pm

#4 Golf – a lovely walk through a perfectly manicured garden ruined by a little white ball.

When did you last see anyone walking around a golf course (unless it’s a pitch and putt)?
No sir – it’s all about, ‘hitting your little white ball, getting in your golf cart ‘a la Trump’, and driving to your next shot.
I outta know – living as I do on the 18th fairway of a ‘World Class’ golf course.
Golf stopped being any form of exercise a loooooong time ago!

#8 Bill Puffle on 08.22.19 at 5:21 pm

A semi for $780,000 in Milton is a big rip off. I’ve been watching house prices in that market and you can get very nice fully detached houses for less than that. I’ve seen pretty nice detached houses there go for around $700,000. Still seems really expensive for Milton, but $780,000 for a semi isn’t a good deal.

——-

“There’s no recession looming, except in the media headlines. The economy is fine. Unemployment is low. Companies are making money. Little inflation. Robust consumer spending. Sure, a slowdown is inevitable after a decade of growth, but it’s not even close yet. ”

——–

Can I borrow your crystal ball Garth? How do you know there wont be a severe recession in Canada soon? You might be right, but you also might be very wrong. Only a Sith deals in absolutes. The truth is, that nobody knows for certain.

There are perfectly valid arguments to be made for a major downturn in Canada:

The reason we could be heading for a severe recession is that the Canadian consumer has taken on way too much debt. The consumer borrowing resulted in artificially high consumer spending which helped our economy along over the last decade. Now that house prices aren’t increasing, the consumer isn’t able to borrow like they have been and they have to start thinking about repaying debt. This will reduce consumer spending and hurt Canadian businesses. That will result in job losses, which leads to even lower spending, debt defaults, and a housing price crash. Then Canada might experience what the United States went through in 2008, where the Federal Government and Bank of Canada has to step in to prevent our banking system from collapsing.

Canada has a bubble economy based on artificially high real estate prices and massive consumer debt. I think it could all come crashing down. A deflationary depression in Canada is certainly possible. We don’t have a vibrant free market economy. We have an economy built on a house of debt and a government that has fully embraced socialism. It could all end very badly, or maybe things will be fine and dandy and the Leafs will win the cup! Either way, I would be hedging your bets.

There are plenty of examples of economies that get into major trouble when there is too much debt in the system.

A recession is when there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, not when your head hurts. We have yet to experience any negative growth, let alone six months of it. I am correct. – Garth

#9 expat on 08.22.19 at 5:31 pm

Conservatives at 34%
Liberals at 32.6%
NDP at 14.6%
Greens at 10.6%

I’d say teh Liberals finally are in big trouble as it is my hunch the 10% who switch their vote every election vote Green.

#10 Colin on 08.22.19 at 5:39 pm

Where does Steve live? I thought all real estate is local. In the Montreal burbs you can get a very decent detached or semi for under $400K. It wouldn’t be such a terrible idea there.

Toronto. But buying anywhere with just $50,000 is plain dumb when this brings you oodles of debt and reduces your liquid assets to zero. No house is worth that. – Garth

#11 Dolce Vita on 08.22.19 at 5:53 pm

5 of the G7 not doing so well:

“These 5 countries are teetering on the brink of a recession”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/global-recession-china-germany-uk-italy-japan

And if you don’t believe Fox, well there’s always the horse’s mouth:

“Germany’s central bank warns of possible recession”

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-central-bank-warns-of-possible-recession/a-50082585

At my age you have come to realize that when the MSM gets a whiff of the above, they are already in it – die cast a while ago.

———————————

I was amazed at how easy it was to to make travel arrangements in September and October to some lovely Italian holiday spots: Sicily, Gulf of Naples, Amalfi Coast. THAT is the 1st time in 4 years it was this easy. Normally, tough to find flights, trains, good hotels etc.

There were a plethora of fine places to choose from in Capri which is normally crawling with domestic and foreign tourists most of the year. UNHEARD OF. This will be my 5th time there.

Something is afoot in the EU – seems travel has been cut back by people – maybe this recession talk may well be true.

———————————

But Canada will be fine.

On its own.

Hanging from the shirt tails of America.

Same America embroiled in a trade war with China – blamed in part for what is happening in Germany now (trade).

That and 2-bits will buy you a cup of “coffee” at Starbucks.

To repeat (again): a downturn is inevitable. But it is not imminent. People who run to cash do themselves a disservice. So do those who scare others, just for the fun of watching them scamper. – Garth

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.19 at 6:00 pm

@#9 expat
“Conservatives at 34%
Liberals at 32.6%
NDP at 14.6%
Greens at 10.6%

I’d say the Liberals finally are in big trouble as it is my hunch the 10% who switch their vote every election vote Green….”

++++

I wont be clapping and cheering until (if and when) Trudeau concedes on Oct 21st election night.

Less than 2 months……….. and then we get to see PM Boris impaled on his legendary sword “Brexcaliber”.

I swear, a scriptwriter couldn’t plan a better Fall TV season.

#13 BlogDog123 on 08.22.19 at 6:08 pm

Yikes I know so many folks who are buying second properties… Keep saying that Milton, ON homes are “easy to buy early” and flip for sale as soon as the developer hands you the keys…

It is way easier to invest in ETFs that can be bought and sold in seconds than all the paperwork and onerous developer-sided contracts of the house flipping game.

The difference is that setting up a brokerage account and trading ETFs is boring compared to HGTV house-flipping shows that say it’s so easy to make big money with housing/rentals.

#14 Dolce Vita on 08.22.19 at 6:13 pm

To repeat (again): a downturn is inevitable. But it is not imminent. People who run to cash do themselves a disservice. So do those who scare others, just for the fun of watching them scamper. – Garth

I am the converted, long before I started reading your Blog, about the “fear, scamper” mentality. In that you are correct to lecture people about and their investing habits.

My point is that I believe Canada is in a recession, at very best a slow down.

I base this in part on speak out of both sides of your mouth StatCan data. It does not square and they gerrymander serious data such as GDP.

Trump is so confident about his economy that he wants a rate cut. Say what????

The guys a nutter for sure when he trash talks but a rate cut with his so called booming economy? The stuff of Twilight Zone. He must know a slow down or recession is at hand.

Even with the macro out of the picture, there are limits to how much people can borrow to “extend and pretend” whether that’s home as ATM or credit card. The cracks are beginning to show with bankruptcies up…more to follow.

I was wrong about May but this quarter (J-A-S) and the next (O-N-D), I believe the truth will come out…recession.

#15 david on 08.22.19 at 6:14 pm

Raheel: at only 15% down, that smells like it would need insurance unless its some magical private lender doing 85LTV, which implies the hidden interest charge is stupid high ie. over 8%. smells like a trap, tastes like a trap …

#16 david on 08.22.19 at 6:15 pm

and raheel, you cant insure an investment property.

#17 Dolce Vita on 08.22.19 at 6:38 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz

As a lifelong Liberal I dislike it very much if they lose especially to the profligate Cons.

Then again, when I look at a photo of Justin and onto those weird eyebrows, blue eyes and beautifully coiffed hair I think:

Pretty boy, 2 bricks short of a full load.

BUT smart enough to know his limitations and surround himself with smarter people like Butts. Harper was correct about Justin, not ready for prime time. He never will be. Not the intellectual powerhouse that his Father was and to this day I admire.

Right now the Libs have a chance but Justin being Justin, he seems to do or say something stupid bi-weekly. We are about due for another one of his foot in mouth gaffes.

Oh Liberal Elite, what have you done with my beloved Liberal Party? Turned it into a Progressive Left clown car.

The alternative is Scheer, Harper Light.

Torn in the end. As I suspect most Canadians are.

You are correct about Oct. 21st.

As for Boris…and we think Italian Gov. is crazy, Boris puts our crazy to shame with his no deal Brexit…there goes my Amazon.co.uk well priced items list that I love and have come to rely on…

Grazie Boris. Asino.

#18 Doug t on 08.22.19 at 6:51 pm

LMAO – here goes Sir Garth again looking down his nose at people and their lot in life – you slay me Garth you really are a piece

So don’t come here looking for a tummy rub. – Garth

#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.22.19 at 6:55 pm

#2 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:47 pm
Hey Steve, my 2yr son has almost $10K in his RESP. I hope that gives you perspective on your situation.

——————————————————————

How are those two situations even remotely similar? The arrogance that shows itself on the blog is amazing sometimes.

You can tell just by the question they are new to investing and saving while also being quite young. $50k by 30 isn’t terrible (lots have nothing) if they have no debt. They may have been paying off student loans previously and only then started to save, who knows?

If they saved that amount on their own they are on the right track. Despite what people on this blog think, having a $500k investment portfolio by 30-35 is not the norm.

S, you cannot afford a house. Invest the money, keep saving and if you do not know what you are doing or what accounts/investments to utilize based on your personal situation, seek professional advice.

#20 JSS on 08.22.19 at 6:56 pm

CIBC 2.9% dividend increase, similar to RBC yesterday…

just waiting to hear from Scotia next week.

income property? what’s that?

rub tummy.

#21 Dolce Vita on 08.22.19 at 7:00 pm

Forgot to say:

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia[*] Garth.

*You know, the Italia where we don’t know who’s in charge anymore. But, we are used to it. It eventually gets sorted out, every year and a half or so.

Then, repeat.

Povera Italia.

This Canada is when you know you are one heck of a great country to live in when it comes to political stability.

Never forget that. No matter what is said between now and October 21st.

Oh ya, and our intrepid Blogger…he’s pretty good too (for a Conservative).

#22 Why You Were Sacked on 08.22.19 at 7:14 pm

“A recession is when there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, not when your head hurts. We have yet to experience any negative growth, let alone six months of it. I am correct. – Garth”

Your arrogance is boundless. That would be bearable if you were almost always right – but you are not. To make it worse, you are not even man enough to own up whenever you are wrong. This is why Harper sacked your sorry ass, and you know it. Stick with presenting facts, tone down your self-serving rethoric, and you will do much better.

Where was I incorrect? – Garth

#23 Sandy Henderson on 08.22.19 at 7:14 pm

Canada is a stable Liberal, socialist cesspool that will run it’s course to financial and societal ruin. Time is not on Canada’s side. Don’t forget you can’t spend, tax, borrow yourself to prosperity.

#24 Butts on 08.22.19 at 7:17 pm

Butts was involved with organizing a biography, and environmental issues in government. He may have assisted in past political campaigns, but believe his credentials are being overstated. I perceive that he was just an old friend put on the payroll, and the handler is elsewhere that guides the PM. The PM travels a lot, but Butts is rarely seen, and that in itself is rather odd.

#25 Flop... on 08.22.19 at 7:31 pm

Tee time?

Don’t you mean Tea time?

You always gave the impression you hate all things sport.

Thanks for helping me be on topic for once.

Let’s check to see if this article interests your new found love for different shapes and sizes of balls…

M45BC

“Most Valuable Sports Teams in the World:

1. Dallas Cowboys: $5 billion
2. New York Yankees: $4.6 billion
3. Real Madrid: $4.24 billion
4. Barcelona: $4.02 billion
5. New York Knicks: $4 billion
6. Manchester United: $3.81 billion
7. New England Patriots: $3.8 billion
8. Los Angeles Lakers: $3.7 billion
9. Golden State Warriors: $3.5 billion
10. Los Angeles Dodgers: $3.3 billion

Despite not having won a championship in decades and not being a part of an international sports league, the Dallas Cowboys remain the world’s most valuable sports franchise at an astounding $5 billion.

But it’s not just the Cowboys. The NFL is the world’s most dominant league when it comes to the value of its franchises. More than half of the top 50 most valuable sports teams are football teams.

Aside from the NFL, the top 50 is made up mostly of the teams you would expect to see there, including major franchises like the New York Yankees, New York Knicks, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and more.

While traditional sports teams continue to dominate the sports industry, eSports is quickly rising in value and popularity. The Fortnite Championship Series, for example, will have more than $10 million in prize money up for grabs. It may not be too long before we see an eSports franchise take a spot on the list of most valuable sports teams.

By analyzing this graphic, we can get a better understanding of how much the world’s most popular sports teams are worth, and how much of an impact they have on the global economy.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-most-valuable-sport-teams

#26 Leo Trollstoy on 08.22.19 at 7:33 pm

With questions like those in the blog it’s no wonder these ppl are poor

#27 Mattl on 08.22.19 at 7:33 pm

Consumer spending in Canada is not strong. Weak vehicle, boat and RV sales. Retail same store sales are mostly flat a trend that started Dec 2017. No idea if a recession is imminent but the merchant portfolio that I track, mostly smb, is flat or negative yoy

#28 yvr_lurker on 08.22.19 at 7:35 pm

#19
You can tell just by the question they are new to investing and saving while also being quite young. $50k by 30 isn’t terrible (lots have nothing) if they have no debt. They may have been paying off student loans previously and only then started to save, who knows?
——–

Exactly. If one went to school to get some some advanced training (in hopefully an area that has some marketable skills), racking up some student debt, then it is likely they will be in this position around 30 years old. This was where I was when I was 30. No need to judge their situation harshly. They should save aggressively for the next 5 years or so and then enter the housing market.

From the social circle that I know the few who have 500K invested in their early 30s got a windfall inheritance that set them up for success.

#29 GratefulBoomer on 08.22.19 at 7:35 pm

Lol. The diagnosis and advise for all 3 patients today was just so spot on. The Doctor is hilarious!

Gotta go cocktail time

#30 But.. on 08.22.19 at 7:37 pm

But a 0% mortgage and renewal in a very likely negative rate environment. This is a no loss.

But better even would be to negotiate it down 5% and still get the 0% mortgage.

But renting it out is a supremely silly idea.

#31 Scott on 08.22.19 at 7:51 pm

Pretty scathing roast on Steve. I found it hilarious but that must have been hard for him to hear if he earnestly asked that question.

Seems nearly every political comment is PC vs libs. Ya’ll watching too much CNN and Fox News. It’s not a two party system in maple land and this election will show how that can come in to play in an major way.

Greens steadily rising globally (although so are protectionist/hard right parties). Lots can happen in the next few months. At least wait til September before you declare who will “definitely win” in October.

#32 Gary Mittleton on 08.22.19 at 7:53 pm

Why is it that the CRA says i have to charge at least the Bank of Canada rate to lend money to my spouse but a Milton home builder is allowed to give 0% mortgage rates.

Where is the bank, financial and real estate regulators on this case and others. It is true, lose bankers with socialism together will sink our society in a sea of debt and red ink.

The mortgage is not zero. The builder just paid it down as a sales incentive. – Garth

#33 Happy on 08.22.19 at 7:57 pm

#22 Why You Were Sacked on 08.22.19 at 7:14 pm

Do you also find it hilarious that ppl come to the comments section just to complain about it? I do.

#34 Jacques Strappe on 08.22.19 at 8:00 pm

#5

———————————
I was amazed at how easy it was to to make travel arrangements in September and October to some lovely Italian holiday spots: Sicily, Gulf of Naples, Amalfi Coast. THAT is the 1st time in 4 years it was this easy. Normally, tough to find flights, trains, good hotels etc.
———————————-

That’s because people are realizing that Europe is an over touristed $h|+hole. It’s 40 degrees in Italy and you have to line up for everything only to be ripped off and treated like garbage when you are finally served. Discount airlines, AirBNB, Uber all make travel easier for the masses. No longer a privilege but a right to go to the same place as everyone else. If I were offered a free trip to Barcelona, Nice, Paris anywhere in Italy or Greece I would say no thank you.

#35 Flop... on 08.22.19 at 8:07 pm

Is Reddit shutdown?

Where else did all the pissy people come from?

Besides Vancouver and Toronto, that is…

M45BC

#36 Bonds on 08.22.19 at 8:17 pm

It’s equities or bust Garth . No comparison long term bonds vs equities with regards to return

Bonds are for the weak hands

#37 Sail away on 08.22.19 at 8:20 pm

#22 Why You Were Sacked on 08.22.19 at 7:14 pm

Your arrogance is boundless. That would be bearable if you were almost always right – but you are not. To make it worse, you are not even man enough to own up whenever you are wrong. This is why Harper sacked your sorry ass, and you know it. Stick with presenting facts, tone down your self-serving rethoric, and you will do much better.

————————————————-

Hey Sack, your spelling of rhetoric is wrong. Care to own up to your mistake?

Funny how we’re not all right all of the time, eh?

#38 Spectacle on 08.22.19 at 8:41 pm

Sure…buy a place they always go up ( or Down ! )

Or not, total sinkhole in the making. West coast or East coast, Down they go…..more ways than just one.

https://www.vicnews.com › news › f…
Fourteen ‘dream’ homes ordered evacuated as sinkholes open in Sechelt – Victoria News

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.19 at 8:48 pm

@#31 Scott
“At least wait til September before you declare who will “definitely win” in October.”

+++++

I wont be making any predictions on this election.
Too close.
And if the Greens hold the balance of power in a minority govt……
The politically correct, tree hugging, anti bullying, far left embracing the Greens by the 10’s of thousands may mean nothing if Trudeau wins Quebec and it’s SNC support groupies.
Rob Ford just needs to try and stop talking and go away until Oct 22nd to allow some Federal pc support in Ontario to have a chance of a mandate.
I wont be surprised at a minority.
God only knows who will offer more money to become PM.
Trudeau or Scheer……..

The ‘Power Broker” Greens in BC have all but disappeared in a gravy train of NDP cash and perks…. so much for their concerns for the planet….git er done! Build that Dam!

I cant wait to see how long it takes the Federal Greens to sit, stay, roll over for more money and perks…… Good job!

#40 IM in C on 08.22.19 at 8:49 pm

Houses are not liquid. Case in point, here in Calgary, with so much real estate on the market, there have been no real price drops. People won’t sell. Many have discovered that you can vacate your property for about $10,000 per year carrying cost . Home owners, if facing a 1-2-3 hundred thousand dollar reduction, can well afford to let their property sit till the next upturn

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.19 at 8:50 pm

@#37 Sail Away
“Hey Sack, your spelling of rhetoric is wrong…”
++++

Not if he has a cleft palate and lisps.

#42 jess on 08.22.19 at 9:04 pm

Byrne also recently admitted he had an intimate relationship with accused Russian agent Maria Butina
The founder and CEO of Overstock.com, Patrick Byrne, resigned today after news of his romantic involvement with an infamous Russian agent and controversial comments about the “Deep State” left the e-commerce company reeling.
Byrne confirmed media reports that he engaged in a three-year relationship with Maria Butina,

#43 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.22.19 at 9:05 pm

#102 Sold Out on 08.22.19 at 1:15 pm
#99 Sail Away

“Let’s make some more commandments while we’re at it.”

1. Thou shalt not exit an asset class entirely
2. Thou shalt not pick individual stocks
3. Thou shalt not go to cash due to irrational fears
4. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s bullion
5. …?

——–

I’ll finish it up:

RV’s 10 Investment Commandments

1. Thou shalt not exit an asset class entirely
2. Thou shalt not pick individual stocks
3. Thou shalt not go to cash due to irrational fears
4. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s bullion
5. Thou shalt not pay excessive fees
6. Thou shalt not have unnecessary excess cash
7. Thou shalt have a portion allocated to bonds
8. Thou shalt always invest via index funds
9. Thou shalt not fear the market
10. Thou shalt not try to time, or beat, the market

#44 Westcdn on 08.22.19 at 9:10 pm

For the longest time I didn’t why I scared women and small children. I said, in all honesty, what I thought. Then it my old age I remembered the marketing axiom “most people do not do not remember what you said but how they felt after you said it”.

I am sure most politicians and other leaders are aware. Trump and T2 – what a contrast in acting! As I stew alone wondering where are the guts to fight against competency. I know bureaucrats have lived through many political leaders and are for keeping the status quo. My favorite quote from Genghis Khan was “Stop bringing me Academics and bring me someone who can get things done” – his Trumpian will.

It reminds me why Rome elected so many bad leaders – https://www.vox.com/2015/5/7/8564895/crazy-roman-emperors

It is sad when we end up at the place we started. I really wish C02 was the only answer to climate change. I think the Mayan civilization collapsed because people stopped believing in abusive leaders when the climate changed in spite of their “knowledge”.

BTW, I am not impressed with Putin, Xi or Lagarde either – too much baggage. But then that is why wars are fought and they don’t die. Trump, Putin and Xi, I can see their backbone – Christine looks like she needs help against her self-serving bureaucrats. Alas history repeats with the business cycle – you know, where hope meets reality.

#45 Why You Were Sacked on 08.22.19 at 9:21 pm

“where was I incorrect?”

You said “There’s no recession looming”, as if that is an indisputable fact. Do you have a crystal ball?

Two quarters of negative growth. It is still positive. There is no recession. Get over yourself. – Garth

#46 akashic record on 08.22.19 at 9:57 pm

#42 jess

The daily dose of Russia phobia delivered.

#47 TRUMP on 08.22.19 at 10:22 pm

STOP BEATING UP ON GARTH!!!!

HE hangs around a bunch of RICH & ARROGANT Investment Bankers and can’t help it.

I don’t complain, I just come here to get my Tummy Rubs!!!

#48 Tony on 08.22.19 at 10:57 pm

Re: #20 JSS on 08.22.19 at 6:56 pm

Interest rates are falling and post 2020 election looks worse than a train wreck especially for the financial sector and insurance companies. Both negatives for Canadian bank shares.

#49 Sail Away on 08.22.19 at 11:38 pm

#43 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.22.19 at 9:05 pm
#102 Sold Out on 08.22.19 at 1:15 pm
#99 Sail Away

“Let’s make some more commandments while we’re at it.”

———————————-

I’ll finish it up:

RV’s 10 Investment Commandments

1. Thou shalt not exit an asset class entirely
2. Thou shalt not pick individual stocks
3. Thou shalt not go to cash due to irrational fears
4. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s bullion
5. Thou shalt not pay excessive fees
6. Thou shalt not have unnecessary excess cash
7. Thou shalt have a portion allocated to bonds
8. Thou shalt always invest via index funds
9. Thou shalt not fear the market
10. Thou shalt not try to time, or beat, the market

———————————

Very nice

#50 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 11:38 pm

#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.22.19 at 6:55 pm
#2 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:47 pm
Hey Steve, my 2yr son has almost $10K in his RESP. I hope that gives you perspective on your situation.

——————————————————————

How are those two situations even remotely similar? The arrogance that shows itself on the blog is amazing sometimes.
———–
How are they similar? Both situations include 2 kids (my son and Steve) who have jack shit to their names. Both know nothing of money and need adult supervision when it comes financial matters because both are oblivious to what is involved. When it comes to voluntarily putting oneself into debt via a house (or a wife), arrogance needs to be left at the door and eyes need to be wide open.

#51 Urban Exec on 08.22.19 at 11:57 pm

#35

I was amazed at how easy it was to to make travel arrangements in September and October to some lovely Italian holiday spots: Sicily, Gulf of Naples, Amalfi Coast. THAT is the 1st time in 4 years it was this easy. Normally, tough to find flights, trains, good hotels etc.
———————————-
That’s because people are realizing that Europe is an over touristed $h|+hole. It’s 40 degrees in Italy and you have to line up for everything only to be ripped off and treated like garbage when you are finally served. Discount airlines, AirBNB, Uber all make travel easier for the masses. No longer a privilege but a right to go to the same place as everyone else. If I were offered a free trip to Barcelona, Nice, Paris anywhere in Italy or Greece I would say no thank you.

Jacques, you are an idiot. I just returned from an amazing 2 week trip in Italy and have also been to Barcelona and Paris many times. You obviously are NOT a traveller and haven’t got a clue on how and where to travel. Probably live in Oshawa!!

#52 Urban Exec on 08.22.19 at 11:58 pm

#34

I was amazed at how easy it was to to make travel arrangements in September and October to some lovely Italian holiday spots: Sicily, Gulf of Naples, Amalfi Coast. THAT is the 1st time in 4 years it was this easy. Normally, tough to find flights, trains, good hotels etc.
———————————-
That’s because people are realizing that Europe is an over touristed $h|+hole. It’s 40 degrees in Italy and you have to line up for everything only to be ripped off and treated like garbage when you are finally served. Discount airlines, AirBNB, Uber all make travel easier for the masses. No longer a privilege but a right to go to the same place as everyone else. If I were offered a free trip to Barcelona, Nice, Paris anywhere in Italy or Greece I would say no thank you.

Jacques, you are an idiot. I just returned from an amazing 2 week trip in Italy and have also been to Barcelona and Paris many times. You obviously are NOT a traveller and haven’t got a clue on how and where to travel. Probably live in Oshawa!!

#53 Steve French on 08.23.19 at 12:05 am

Just because I have Trump Derangement Syndrome doesn’t mean that Trump is not deranged!

Read this and be afraid folks.. the dude has deep-seated daddy-mommy issues.

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/16/psychoanalyst-justin-frank-on-why-trump-hates-reality-and-must-be-quarantined/

The problem with Trump is that, first of all, there are so many different factors psychologically and emotionally that are involved with his behavior that to really understand Donald Trump would mean that you would understand of all of psychiatry. You would understand every single pathology, you’d understand paranoia. You would understand sociopathy. You’d understand sadism. You’d understand grandiosity and malignant narcissism. You would understand every single thing about psychiatry, because Donald Trump has all of the characteristics writ large. Donald Trump should not be president. He should be removed immediately.

That is why his supporters love him. Trump does not believe in “political correctness.” A person just can’t just walk around and attack people or say negative things about people. You have to be proper, thoughtful and respectful. But Trump is saying, “You don’t have to do that. I’m sick of being respectful.” Because Donald Trump is giving people permission to do whatever they want, that makes him an immoral and amoral leader. Alcoholics drink in order to narcotize their superego so that they can act without guilt. In that way Donald Trump is the ultimate glass of vodka for his followers.

—————

#54 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 12:12 am

#43 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.22.19 at 9:05 pm
#102 Sold Out on 08.22.19 at 1:15 pm
#99 Sail Away

“Let’s make some more commandments while we’re at it.”

———————————-

I’ll finish it up:

RV’s 10 Investment Commandments

1. Thou shalt not exit an asset class entirely
2. Thou shalt not pick individual stocks
3. Thou shalt not go to cash due to irrational fears
4. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s bullion
5. Thou shalt not pay excessive fees
6. Thou shalt not have unnecessary excess cash
7. Thou shalt have a portion allocated to bonds
8. Thou shalt always invest via index funds
9. Thou shalt not fear the market
10. Thou shalt not try to time, or beat, the market

———————————

Very nice, Blessed Canadian Moses!

#55 Smoking Man on 08.23.19 at 12:56 am

Damn, James was right. The homeless dude was back in my garbage tonight. I got suckered in.. Note to self. Dont talk to homeless people when hammered.. They’re infectiously charming.

He’s a hell of alot better clothing tonight and gave my a full pack of smokes..

Sort of glad he’s full of shit… Great conversation tonight.
Glad he’s back..

#56 Smoking Man on 08.23.19 at 1:15 am

Being a genius with no need for fame or fortune is a gift from God..

Nicola Tesla.. My Hero. Einstein is fake news..

#57 Smoking Man on 08.23.19 at 1:40 am

DELETED

#58 Not So New guy on 08.23.19 at 2:07 am

I believe Trump wants to buy Greenland for the same reason Alaska was bought. The guy who did it will be remembered. A purchase like that is a large bump on the road of America’s history. Forever they will be saying Donald Trump, the guy that gave America Greenland.

What did Obama do? Nothing of significance. Trump is about fame and legacy. Thus his motive

#59 PHMIKE on 08.23.19 at 3:45 am

I love the I’ve been reading your blog for x amount of years and now I want to do the complete opposite of your advice … it’s a good idea right?

#60 dharma bum on 08.23.19 at 7:36 am

Seems that the more these wannabe adult mils read your blog, the stupider they become.

Weird.

Zero comprehension. Zero retention.

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
― George Carlin

#61 Paddy on 08.23.19 at 7:55 am

Raheel’s household at 250k gross, takes home either 163k if one spouse is working or 92k per spouse(if each gross 125k) so 13.5k/month or 15.3k/month(according to tax calculator)……that’s a lot of dough.

#62 NoName on 08.23.19 at 8:19 am

@SM

Nicola Tesla

It’s not c, it’s a k, at least remember how to write his name corektlee.

#63 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.23.19 at 8:21 am

#31 Scott on 08.22.19 at 7:51 pm sez, in part:

“Seems nearly every political comment is PC vs libs. Ya’ll watching too much CNN and Fox News. It’s not a two party system in maple land and this election will show how that can come in to play in an major way.

Greens steadily rising globally (although so are protectionist/hard right parties). Lots can happen in the next few months. At least wait til September before you declare who will “definitely win” in October.”

———————————————————
Oh it’s likely the Cons will win the most seats but it looks like no one will get enough for a majority. What this likely means is that we will be thrust into an unholy Lib/Green or a disastrous Lib/NDP Coalition Gov’t.

May Dog help us all.

#64 jess on 08.23.19 at 8:25 am

Thursday, August 22, 2019
Massive International Fraud and Money Laundering Conspiracy Detailed in Federal Grand Jury Indictment that Charges 80 Defendants

June 11, 2018

International Business E-Mail Compromise Takedown

Multiple Countries Involved in Coordinated Law Enforcement Effort

Operation WireWire—which also included the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Treasury, and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service—involved a six-month sweep that culminated in over two weeks of intensified law enforcement activity resulting in 74 arrests in the U.S. and overseas, including 42 in the U.S., 29 in Nigeria, and three in Canada, Mauritius, and Poland. The operation also resulted in the seizure of nearly $2.4 million and the disruption and recovery of approximately $14 million in fraudulent wire transfers….

How to protect your business read here

Awareness of BEC Schemes Can Safeguard Your Business
Here are the most current and frequent BEC scenarios identified by the FBI:

Business Executive: Criminals spoof or compromise e-mail accounts of high-level business executives, including chief information officers and chief financial officers, which result in the processing of a wire transfer to a fraudulent account
Real Estate Transactions: Criminal impersonate sellers, realtors, title companies, or law firms during a real estate transaction to ask the home buyer for funds to be sent to a fraudulent account
Data and W-2 Theft: Criminals, using a compromised business executive’s e-mail account, send fraudulent requests for W-2 information or other personally identifiable information to an entity in an organization that routinely maintains that sort of information
Supply Chain: Criminals send fraudulent requests to redirect funds during a pending business deal, transaction, or invoice payment to an account controlled by a money mule or bad actor
Law Firms: Criminals find out about trust accounts or litigation and impersonate a law firm client to change the recipient bank information to a fraudulent account.

And to further educate yourself on BEC schemes to help protect your business, read more about how BEC schemes work and how you can avoid being victimized. You can also take a look at this IC3 public service announcement on BEC schemes.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/international-bec-takedown-061118
https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/massive-international-fraud-and-money-laundering-conspiracy-detailed-federal-grand-jury

By Faith Karimi, CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/23/us/nigeria-romance-scam-arrests/index.html

#65 Rock On Garth on 08.23.19 at 8:29 am

I like it! Fire and brimstone Garth (FBG) emerges with guns howling, buns rippling, hair flexing, and dogs blazing.

Seriously, given the bone-headed questions I read here, this blog sometimes rivals TMZ as a source of entertainment. What are people thinking (or apparently not thinking)? Many would be better off simply calling up, oh I don’t know, someone who has experience, has a proven track record of consistent and realistic performance, and who is willing to pull no punches.

While I am not a client of FBG (albeit a fan), I can honestly say that my financial minions do a credible job of managing my pile using most of what he suggests thus allowing me to write silly and annoying comments online, do as little as possible other than play with my dogs, and generally be an annoying old boomer who begins every other sentence with the phrase “Being financially independent”. To the people profiled (or reviled) here by FBG, suck it up and hand over the reins to the guy with cojones bigger than a set of Alberta truck nuts.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19 at 8:53 am

@#59 dharma bum
“Zero comprehension. Zero retention.”
+++++

Well, when you think that with the advent of the internet and the smart phones…you dont have to remember anything.
Names,dates, phone numbers … all at your finger tips and if you cant remember.. “Hey Google” will find it for you.

Follow that up with at least a decade of parents doing everything for their kids and or telling their kids, “Good job” ( like our parents used to say to the family dog when it sat on command or returned a stick), when the brats do the most basic of expected tasks…..and here we have the ( not too surprising)results.

Zero comprehension, zero retention

And it shouldnt surprise us.
Lets face it. When parents or computers can do it for them….why retain anything?

#67 NotLegalAdvice on 08.23.19 at 9:04 am

“Maybe by then your adult, middle-aged child will then be able to stand on his own. Like you did.” – G.T.

– This isn’t fair Garth. As you had previously mentioned on your blog, millennials’ situations are more similar to their grandparents and not their parents. Parents had it way easier (I think on average they were using like 35% of their income on a house?), where as Millennials and our Grandparents are/were using significantly more.

I think if this Father is in a position to help his son, he should go for it. Middle aged or not!

#68 oh bouy on 08.23.19 at 9:08 am

@#23 Sandy Henderson on 08.22.19 at 7:14 pm
Canada is a stable Liberal, socialist cesspool that will run it’s course to financial and societal ruin. Time is not on Canada’s side. Don’t forget you can’t spend, tax, borrow yourself to prosperity.
_________________

lol, sure Sandy.

#69 IHCTD9 on 08.23.19 at 9:09 am

Raheel has wife who wants house.
Raheel decides to buy house, but let other people live in it.
Raheel gets divorced.

“irreconcilable Real Estate differences”

PS Raheel, if you somehow make this work with your wife, please contact me here with your method as I would love to buy a new 2019 Sierra 1500 Denali, and I am facing the same basic dilemma.

#70 oh bouy on 08.23.19 at 9:17 am

@#34 Jacques Strappe on 08.22.19 at 8:00 pm
#5

———————————
I was amazed at how easy it was to to make travel arrangements in September and October to some lovely Italian holiday spots: Sicily, Gulf of Naples, Amalfi Coast. THAT is the 1st time in 4 years it was this easy. Normally, tough to find flights, trains, good hotels etc.
———————————-

That’s because people are realizing that Europe is an over touristed $h|+hole. It’s 40 degrees in Italy and you have to line up for everything only to be ripped off and treated like garbage when you are finally served. Discount airlines, AirBNB, Uber all make travel easier for the masses. No longer a privilege but a right to go to the same place as everyone else. If I were offered a free trip to Barcelona, Nice, Paris anywhere in Italy or Greece I would say no thank you.
_______________________

lol, no.

#71 Mr Canada on 08.23.19 at 9:17 am

LOL It is Milton after all — $780k for a semi – in Milton — no thanks — while Milton is growing like a weed, the developments are just rows and rows of homes, zero character, just like Mississauga and Brampton….its so bad in terms of the lack of planning and expansion that North Oakville is now called South Milton….

#72 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 9:37 am

#50 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 11:38 pm
#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.22.19 at 6:55 pm
#2 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:47 pm
Hey Steve, my 2yr son has almost $10K in his RESP. I hope that gives you perspective on your situation.

——————————————————————

How are those two situations even remotely similar? The arrogance that shows itself on the blog is amazing sometimes.

———–
How are they similar? Both situations include 2 kids (my son and Steve) who have jack shit to their names. Both know nothing of money and need adult supervision when it comes financial matters because both are oblivious to what is involved. When it comes to voluntarily putting oneself into debt via a house (or a wife), arrogance needs to be left at the door and eyes need to be wide open.

————————————-

Different situations. Steve saved the $, your son didn’t. I probably had a similar inflation adjusted amount when I was 30 and 17 years later am very happy with my life and financial situation. No need to be harsh. Saving $50k shows awareness.

Houses are just shelter made of readily-available materials. They are not all located in Toronto or Vancouver where land prices are delusionally inflated.

A very nice house can be built for a reasonable price. Maybe Flop can weigh in on what that price is? A $2M house in Toronto is no nicer than a $200k house in a remote area. They’re both built with identical materials.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

#73 PastThePeak on 08.23.19 at 9:44 am

Corporate profits strong?

Not according to the US GDP revision data released back in June (believe someone else also linked this at the time). Not that I subscribe to ZeroHedge gospel, but it is directly referencing the GDP data and one of the non-YT sources I could quickly find.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/stunner-todays-gdp-revision-no-profit-gains-past-5-years.

Corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment) have dropped in both 2018 and 2019 (a lot), and the revisions significantly lowered the profits both in these years and past. The peak was end of 2014.

Many companies are meeting or exceeding their targets at a “per share” basis, but not an absolute basis. The reason for many is the massive share buybacks over last several years – $1T in 2018 alone. This increases EPS even if overall profit is flat or down. Apple is a good example (I own them and think they are a great company, but…) – the profit is roughly flat from 5 years ago, but EPS is up nicely.

As an investor in a company, there is nothing specifically wrong with using “truly excess” free cash to buyback shares, if all reasonable investments are accounted for. Your shares have a greater ownership of future profits. But focusing solely on earnings per-share as a barometer of the health of the economy will be misleading in this scenario.

There are many indicators (other than headline GDP and U3 unemployment) that show the US economy is not nearly as healthy as the media and Trump like to suggest. Calling for a 1% immediate Fed cut is a signal that Trump knows things are not as rosy as he & the team claim.

Share buybacks show strong balance sheets and add to shareholder value. Regardless of the impact on EPS, there is no valid argument that US corps aren’t vastly richer than they were a decade ago. Profits drive equity valuations. Mr. Market is probably smarter than you. – Garth

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19 at 9:48 am

Apparently Liberal hack job artiste Ralph Goodale posted a sound clip of Andrew Scheer expressing his personal views on same sex marriage from 10+ years ago.
Scheer wasnt abusive or derogatory, merely stated his opinion.

For the record
Smug Liberal toady, Ralph Goodale, looking for anything to get the SNC Lavalin dirt back under the Liberal carpet ………..also voted against same sex marriage in that episode.

#75 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 10:05 am

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19 at 9:48 am
Apparently Liberal hack job artiste Ralph Goodale posted a sound clip of Andrew Scheer expressing his personal views on same sex marriage from 10+ years ago.
Scheer wasnt abusive or derogatory, merely stated his opinion.

—————————–

Sorry, opinions contrary to

#76 PastThePeak on 08.23.19 at 10:07 am

Share buybacks show strong balance sheets and add to shareholder value. Regardless of the impact on EPS, there is no valid argument that US corps aren’t vastly richer than they were a decade ago. Profits drive equity valuations. Mr. Market is probably smarter than you. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Share buybacks exceeded FCF last year. Outside of a few very profitable firms (like Apple, Microsoft), many corps have funded buybacks via debt.

#77 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 10:09 am

…the whim of the day are verboten. Tolerance is a one-way street.

#78 Huh? on 08.23.19 at 10:20 am

Huh?

Yesterday:

“A recession is inevitable, but not imminent. Maybe 18 months away. You will find out then. Be ready, be liquid.”

Today:

“The is no recession looming, except in the media headlines.”

I see a 180 degree turn here.

None. A recession will come. But not soon. Stay invested. – Garth

#79 n1tro on 08.23.19 at 10:43 am

#71 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 9:37 am
#50 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 11:38 pm
#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.22.19 at 6:55 pm
#2 n1tro on 08.22.19 at 4:47 pm
Hey Steve, my 2yr son has almost $10K in his RESP. I hope that gives you perspective on your situation.

——————————————————————

Different situations. Steve saved the $, your son didn’t.
Saving $50k shows awareness.
——
What does saving the money or having it gifted have to do with the situation of making a mistake?
Steve didn’t save $50K. $50K is what the TOTAL was after the marriage. How much of it was Steve or the wife’s. I’ll be generous and assume 50/50.

You remember in school when teachers and professors told you that “There are no dumb questions”? Sad to say but they lied.

There are absolutely dumb questions…like “Do you think I’ll get hurt if I jump off this building on a dare?” right up to “We only got $50K earning less than inflation to our names and want to buy a +$750K property…do you think that is a good idea?”

The thing about dumb questions is not that they shouldn’t be asked but that the person asking realize that the question is stupid (from hearing the answer) and learns from it to act accordingly. A lot of people ask questions seeking confirmation to what they intend to do anyways.

I got out of school around 27 and was more than broke with school loans. What I didn’t do was 1. get married and 2. think about buying a house weeks after it. Why? Because I asked myself, “How am I going to pay for all of it?” and used readily available mortgage calculators to realize I’d be in debt for 25 years.

Steve and wife may be new doctor grads with plenty of earning potential so buying a place and paying for it will be a breeze but given what was written and asked, I stand by what said.

#80 Concerned Reader on 08.23.19 at 11:01 am

Mr. Elevatorfartz while Goodale did vote against gay marriage in 95 and 99 he did vote in favour of gay marriage in 05. Scheer has continuously voted against gay marriage and his refusal to march in pride parades proves that he still feels the same way. While I don’t believe Scheer would touch the legislation, I suspect it makes gay Canadians uncomfortable to vote for someone who seems to be homophobic. Goodale remains a disingenuous opportunist politician and Scheer remains publicly homophobic. Neither leopard has changed their spots.

#81 Safety Man on 08.23.19 at 11:02 am

He was the one who authorized the payment of $10.5 million while the PM was in Ireland. The PM was never told, and the transaction was supported by other Cabinet Members. Meet your order in council to assume the PM’s duties, because T2 never appointed a Deputy PM.

#82 SeeB on 08.23.19 at 11:15 am

This is a pathetic amount of money for two working adults to have accumulated. Did you blow it all on a honeymoon to Nevis?

—————————————————————

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts they were paying off student debt, so try not to be TOO harsh. Welcome to life among the little people.

#83 toosoft on 08.23.19 at 11:25 am

I think its funny that everyone complains about your arrogance when they could go to any other Canadian and receive the politically correct plate of BS that they crave. Your ‘arrogance’ (honesty?) looks out for my future self, which I appreciate. Thanks for your honesty, even if it does feel like a slap to the face at times.. Honesty is something Canadians could use a whole lot more of.

#84 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 11:26 am

#78 n1tro on 08.23.19 at 10:43 am

Yes, much is unknown. Buying a $750k house in Steve’s situation would be ridiculous – a house price wasn’t mentioned in the post, though, and there are more reasonable options if one is flexible.

In my line of work of engineering a 30 yo is generally recently accredited and just starting to find their feet. Most attention and effort prior to that is spent on earning registration rather than finances.

From my perspective, $50k at 30 yo is a reasonable place to be. Of course we all apply our own perspective and the real situation is probably different.

#85 Dangerous Dad on 08.23.19 at 11:33 am

“There’s never a bad time to buy real estate”. Oh that famous refrain.

Meanwhile, Trump Hate is spinning itself into frenzy, it nutz. The G7 are acting like paranoid rock stars, as if Trump is like doing too much cocaine. If we don’t save the planet in 12 months it’s all over. If Trudeau doesn’t
get back in The Proud Boys will sell yellow stars outside the 711. Is there a worse time to invest, almost no!!! It’s time to set your hair on fire folks. We’re all gonna die. Koch died today. It’s time to bring back LSD.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/g7-is-well-timed-to-fight-recession-but-leaders-unlikely-to-act-1.1305688

#86 Sean Dinna on 08.23.19 at 11:56 am

A vote for NDP Singh and Liberals Trudeau is a vote for economic decline and disaster. Look at what happened to Ontario, BC and BC, Yikes!

#87 Shawn Allen on 08.23.19 at 11:58 am

What would you like the answer to be?

Past the Peak at 72 claimed:

Corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment) have dropped in both 2018 and 2019 (a lot), and the revisions significantly lowered the profits both in these years and past. The peak was end of 2014.

And cited a link from doomer site zerohedge.

****************************************
Which simply goes to show that as always the data can be tortured and adjusted until it confesses to exactly the answer the desired.

P.S. interesting to see that after Garth set a nasty tone today (which may have been largely to get reader attention and engagement and so is smart – and Garth also used humor which softens the nastiness somewhat) the comments quickly turned much nastier than usual. People are easily led to be kind or mean. Leaders including thought leaders have a scary power that way.

#88 Oakville Rocks! on 08.23.19 at 11:59 am

#70 Nobody calls North Oakville South Milton.
Do you even live here?

Oakville and Milton may meet one day in the future (like 20 years or later) but right now the developments are not even close. And there is the matter of Highway 407 between Oakville and Milton. And the bears.

Maybe look at a map? Oakville blends into Burlington in the West and Mississauga in the East but Milton to the North is still a considerable distance. The most traveled route is Bronte Rd and Halton region’s Waste Management Site is there in the middle, at least 5-10 mins by car from the most recent housing developments in either Oakville or Milton.

Where I live in North Oakville (below Dundas) is the starting point for lots of cycling club’s morning rides because the roads just north of here are mostly vacant of development.

And speaking of Milton – they have a pretty decent farmer’s market on Saturday – worth the drive from where ever you live.

Maybe open your eyes Mr. Canada and stop being such a pessimist.

#89 Enlightened on 08.23.19 at 12:32 pm

Garth…did you ever consider a Podcast enlightening the masses on financial basics?

#90 IHCTD9 on 08.23.19 at 12:52 pm

#72 Sail Away on 08.23.19 at 9:37 am

A very nice house can be built for a reasonable price. Maybe Flop can weigh in on what that price is? A $2M house in Toronto is no nicer than a $200k house in a remote area. They’re both built with identical materials.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
___

Indeed. I used to be a ‘price shopper”, today I am a “value shopper”. Being a value shopper has been a trip UP the price ladder to where I think I am getting some decent bang for the buck every time so far.

I bought a MINT 15 year old truck for 10K a couple years back with nearly zero winters on it, and 123K on the clock – just outstanding condition. Saving just 2K on price meant high mileage, and rusty cab corners/rockers. The 2K price increase brought with it a lot better value than the rusty cheapies.

Same thing with houses out here. 500-550K buys a nice standard issue everyone has one Colorado on an acre. 700-800K buys something truly outstanding with acreage, high end finishes, fancy driveways, and interesting architecture with pools and hot tubs. You definitely feel the bang for the buck is better at 700K.

#91 Braj on 08.23.19 at 1:12 pm

17Trillion in negative yielding bonds worldwise. Up a couple of trillion in a few months.

Where’s trumpocalypse 2020?

#92 PastThePeak on 08.23.19 at 1:21 pm

#87 Shawn Allen on 08.23.19 at 11:58 am
What would you like the answer to be?

Past the Peak at 72 claimed:

Corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment) have dropped in both 2018 and 2019 (a lot), and the revisions significantly lowered the profits both in these years and past. The peak was end of 2014.

And cited a link from doomer site zerohedge.

****************************************
Which simply goes to show that as always the data can be tortured and adjusted until it confesses to exactly the answer the desired.

P.S. interesting to see that after Garth set a nasty tone today (which may have been largely to get reader attention and engagement and so is smart – and Garth also used humor which softens the nastiness somewhat) the comments quickly turned much nastier than usual. People are easily led to be kind or mean. Leaders including thought leaders have a scary power that way.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And your response is misrepresenting what I posted and stating things which are not true. Says something about you I suppose:

1) I clearly noted the ZeroHedge link, that I do not subscribe to their gospel or doomer view, but was using it as the link to where the data was discussed. They did not create the data noted.

2) The data itself is from official US government sources, but it seems that only fringe media looked into the weeds & published this point. If you consider any information that doesn’t come from MSM as wrong, again, that is your issue.

3) Nothing in my post was mean spirited in any way. Do you consider information you don’t agree with to be “mean”?

#93 MF on 08.23.19 at 1:31 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19

Normally a decent poster but this hate millennial thing is not looking good on you.

Yeah, paint an entire generation of people with one brushstroke.

Or is that type of stupidity a boomer thing? You know, the generation that left us with trillions of dollars of debt even during one of the most prosperous times in human history.

See two can play that stupid game.

Smarten up.

MF

#94 DON on 08.23.19 at 1:40 pm

#59 PHMIKE on 08.23.19 at 3:45 am

I love the I’ve been reading your blog for x amount of years and now I want to do the complete opposite of your advice … it’s a good idea right?
#60 dharma bum on 08.23.19 at 7:36 am

Seems that the more these wannabe adult mils read your blog, the stupider they become.

Weird.

Zero comprehension. Zero retention.

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
― George Carlin
********************

Yup…people can read but comprehension and synthesizing information seem to be a work in progress for some.

#95 Sovavia on 08.23.19 at 2:14 pm

Recession risks are rising in Canada (household debt is the main cause), and very few investors can stomach a loss greater than 40%.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/dividend-stocks-are-being-touted-as-a-substitute-for-bonds-but-the-reality-is-much-more-complicated

The GFC in 2008-9 was the worst financial event in our lifetimes. Stocks declined 55% and took seven years to recover. A balanced portfolio lost 20% and recovered in one year. If you are invested property, you can just ignore any storm. – Garth

#96 VicPaul on 08.23.19 at 2:17 pm

83 toosoft on 08.23.19 at 11:25 am

I think its funny that everyone complains about your arrogance when they could go to any other Canadian and receive the politically correct plate of BS that they crave. Your ‘arrogance’ (honesty?) looks out for my future self, which I appreciate. Thanks for your honesty, even if it does feel like a slap to the face at times.. Honesty is something Canadians could use a whole lot more of.
********************

Absolute word…)

#97 Ace Goodheart on 08.23.19 at 3:27 pm

So the Trumpster has just ordered all US companies to exit China.

This looks a lot like an embargo.

The US loves these things. They have embargoed Cuba for many years. Iran, Iraq, North Korea.

Now China.

Look for consumer goods in the USA to become very, very, very expensive.

Just go to any Walmart and read the labels. Everything they sell pretty much is made in China. Same goes for most of the cheap, affordable consumer goods that Americans currently enjoy for massive discounts to the same products produced by American union labor.

If Trump actually does embargo China and force all US companies to close shop there, and stop dealing with the Chinese, then all bets are off as to stock markets.

When we are told by various eminent economic minds that the global economy will never really collapse, that recessions will always end, and that bear markets will inevitably be followed by bull markets, this advice up to now did not take into account just how nutbar crazy whacko the current US president actually is.

If this fruitcake of a President actually does embargo China, all bets are off. Get out of US equities as quick as you can. He is going to destroy the American economy and the companies that run it.

#98 Mississauga Mel on 08.23.19 at 3:54 pm

#71 Mr Canada on 08.23.19 at 9:17 am

“LOL It is Milton after all — $780k for a semi – in Milton — no thanks — while Milton is growing like a weed, the developments are just rows and rows of homes, zero character, just like Mississauga and Brampton..”

Ever been to my neck of the woods in Mississauga, Mineola cowboy? Acre plus lots and homes that have garages worth more than you. Quite the generalizer aren’t you?

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19 at 4:05 pm

@#80 Concerned Reader
“Neither leopard has changed their spots.”
++++

No arguement there.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.19 at 4:16 pm

@#93 MF
“Yeah, paint an entire generation of people with one brushstroke.”

++++

Well,
it has been my personal experience of late that ( inadequate reading and comprehension skills aside) a vast majority of Mills are too busy texting “selfies” to see the world around them.
We’ll see how much more “stupid and greedy” Boomers are as the millenials age and learn how to be adults….

At least this is one trend Boomers didnt invent…

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-45745982

#101 Sold Out on 08.23.19 at 4:45 pm

#100 CEF

To be fair, if selfies were a thing when Boomers were in their 20’s the death toll would be exactly the same. Regardless of demographic cohort, 20-somethings are dumb as rocks. I was completely clueless, displaying no evidence of the 50-something genius I would become.

#102 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.23.19 at 8:35 pm

#97 Ace Goodheart on 08.23.19 at 3:27 pm
So the Trumpster has just ordered all US companies to exit China.

This looks a lot like an embargo.

The US loves these things. They have embargoed Cuba for many years. Iran, Iraq, North Korea.

————–

Seems like you don’t know why US actually went ahead with the trade war with China in the first place.

I’d suggest reading up from an unbiased source first before placing all the blame on the POTUS.

#103 SunDays on 08.24.19 at 8:07 am

#95 Sovavia on 08.23.19 at 2:14 pm
Recession risks are rising in Canada (household debt is the main cause)…

———-

Wrong. Gov’t policy is the main cause. Just listen to these interviews…

Toronto chef Mark McEwan: Inflation is hitting Canadian restaurants hard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjXfArHbV_A

‘I’m scared stiff for our country’: Seymour Schulich sounds alarm for Canadian energy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9Ajst7y71g