Gulp

First, the crumble in Vancouver. Then the blog terrorists. Please ensure you have the correct gear (protective eyewear, gloves, sidearm etc.) before proceeding. Thank you. And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.

The forecast: Tumult, then cannibalization

The meme coming out of the real estate cartel lately in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and (even) Calgary is that the storm’s abating. Buyers are coming back. Cheap mortgages are doing the trick. Sales are ticking higher. FOMO’s creeping in.

For example, read this breathless report from Van’s realtors:

Home buyer demand picked up across Metro Vancouver last month, making July, a traditionally quieter month in real estate, the second highest selling month so far this year.The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver  reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,557 in July 2019, a 23.5% increase from the 2,070 sales recorded in July 2018, and a 23.1% increase from the 2,077 homes sold in June 2019.

Wow. Big jump. Better buy now, kids, before the temporary dip in house prices is history. And how about that Hong Kong situation? Surely when the Chinese army marches, there’ll be an invasion of YVR. Yellow helicopters will blot the sun. Buy!

Well, Dane Eitel has another view.  His company, Eitel Insights, is a Van-based global leader in applying the principles of technical analytics to residential real estate. The results have been uncanny. Wicked accurate. You might be interested in the report he provided me yesterday.

On Detached house sales and prices:
“The Detached market is still plummeting especially when you take a 1 or 2 year outlook. Eitel Insights sees a tumultuous time still upcoming for sellers, and we anticipate the market to continue lower with a test of $1.400 million in our future. If that price point does not hold we expect the market to sink lower until we see prices of $1.225 million across Greater Vancouver on an average sale price.”

On the condo market:
“With the average sale price of Greater Vancouver coming in at $656,000 the market is down 13% from the peak. We anticipate this price point decreasing over the upcoming years leading to a test of $525,000 a total drop of 30% from the peak. The market will be inundated with active listings, even now the realtors are continually getting emails about assignments sales because developers do not allow their buyers to publicly advertise the listing on the open market. Once the property is completed the market will sharply rise in active listings and with each new month see higher and higher inventory. Eventually leading to the cannibalization of the condo market with new properties selling with warranties and kickbacks the resale market will be forced to lower their prices to see any offers. Thus forcing newer properties to lower their prices and the vicious cycle will repeat until the market bottom likely in 2022.”

On the stress test and why sales have bumped:
“The rationale for why the market is seeing a temporary lift is due to the Stress Test Mitigation. What we mean by that is the sale prices have fallen off 18% from the peak. Meaning those that have been forced to the sidelines due to the 20% increase of mortgage qualification, can now begin to purchase. This, as we say, will be a temporary effect. Once the demand due to stress test mitigation is introduced to the market the sales will pick up and we anticipate a tighter range of average sales price. However once that buildup of demand dissipates, we will see the market continue lower.”

The conclusion, kids: it’s a trap.

Things that go bump in the night (and all day)

Have you noticed some delays in trying to access your favourite, addictive and pathetic blog lately? Maybe your request to join has just timed out. Perhaps you’ve received some of those annoying ‘connectivity lost…we’re looking  into it.. be patient” messages from some elusive, cloud-based webmaster.

Well, there’s a reason. We are under attack. Here’s a screen shot of the automated firewall filtering of visitors or bots for part of an hour. Note the activity from China.

Says the webmaster (I actually have one, named William Stratas): “This is constant stream of identified crap that never reaches the server (or receives a challenge prompt) thanks to the network filtering.”

So, howcum this is happening? Why target a blog like this where there’s nothing of value to steal, above or below deck? “It happens due to general untargeted (or targeted) IP address scanning over the network,” Stratas explains. “Searching for open ports or particular apps. Poking around for vulnerable servers and sites and stuff. Whether an unemployed slob with a PC living in a basement, or a malicious state actor with a huge technical apparatus. Millions and millions of probes and pings every hour. Hell, every second, worldwide.

“Unless web site operators have competent knowledge of the available tools, their sites almost inevitably will fall. The good news is effective duct-taping of this infrastructure does not require big-budget tools. It’s quite satisfying for me that so many Canadians derive knowledge and inspiration from your writings, and can join the daily conversation, with minimal to nil inconvenience, no intrusion upon their privacy, and no barrier to participation.”

See how lucky you are to be here? Now behave better.

137 comments ↓

#1 binky barnes on 08.14.19 at 4:04 pm

Thank you, Garth :)

#2 BigEnglish on 08.14.19 at 4:14 pm

As always thank you for the insight.

#3 WUL on 08.14.19 at 4:19 pm

This comment is more relevant to yesterday’s missive from Garth on extreme reactions to market fluctuation. In any case, about 6 weeks ago, the prophets of doom about the markets sunk their hooks into my mind and I was going to liquidate everything and go to 100% cash. I decided to follow the advice of Turner, do nothing and ignore the noise.

It will be educational if nothing else. Now if I could just refrain from checking the TSX and Dow every 10 minutes and only open my statements every third month.

With luck, tomorrow’s tweet from the Oval Office will provide a bump.

WUL (M63AB – Of Dwindlng Wallet)

#4 Kelly on 08.14.19 at 4:22 pm

Dow Jones drops 800 points.

Time for another timely tweet from POTUS to make things right.

The market is so jumpy, it’s insane.

#5 Yanniel on 08.14.19 at 4:26 pm

#99 Sail away on 08.14.19 at 11:58 am
#63 Yanniel on 08.13.19 at 10:45 pm
I don’t quite get your argument about CAGR. Do you care to explain please? You said “1 oz of gold in 1972 is still 1 oz in 2019.” The same can be said about 1 share of Company X bought in 1972, no?
—————————————–
The compound annual growth rate assumes profits are reinvested into the company and result in additional return on interest; basically the snowball effect.
The ‘trade-in’ value of a successful company stock will increase over time: in the beginning, one share might essentially be tradable for a company vehicle, but after 50 years of compounding, that one share could be ‘tradable’ for a wing of the company factory.
An ounce of gold will always be an ounce of gold. It won’t compound into 2 ounces of gold.
Does that make sense?
——————————————-

Thanks Sail away, but I still don’t get why you say the concept of CAGR is not applicable to gold.

CAGR mathematical definition:

CAGR = ( EV / BV)1/n – 1

where:

EV = Investment’s ending value
BV = Investment’s beginning value
n = Number of periods (months, years, etc.)

This definition works for any investment: gold, other commodities, stocks, bonds regardless of whether the investment pays dividends, coupons or just appreciate via capital gains.

How is this definition not applicable to gold?

Thanks.

#6 Stone on 08.14.19 at 4:44 pm

First, the crumble in Vancouver. Then the blog terrorists. Please ensure you have the correct gear (protective eyewear, gloves, sidearm etc.) before proceeding. Thank you. And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.

———

So how’s the good old balanced and globally diversified ETF portfolio doing at this point?

Just ducky. Far better than an all-equity one. – Garth

#7 HowDeepThePain on 08.14.19 at 4:44 pm

Oil stocks are getting creamed…among others.

Gonna be some houses for sale, real soon!

#8 Paul on 08.14.19 at 4:55 pm

If or?when the Chinese army goes into Hong Kong the money will never get out. Plan accordingly ,better Two years early then one day late.

#9 baloney Sandwitch on 08.14.19 at 4:58 pm

#4 Kelly
Time for another timely tweet from POTUS to make things right. – Yes.

Uncle Xi – I am saying UNCLE – sttopp the pain @realDonaldTrump

#10 acdel on 08.14.19 at 4:58 pm

So China is picking on your blog; dow down 800, real estate sucks; yield curve in bonds tell the story; of course a major recession in on the way, batten down the hatches dawgs!

Hey, it was a beautiful summer day today with a severe thunderstorm watch right now; hmm; how ironic!

#11 Ian on 08.14.19 at 4:59 pm

Hi Garth,

I would love to hear of any tips on how one can improve their writing skills. Not a financial question I know, but I can’t help but wish I had learned more in English class. Math and Physics were my things!

Thank you,

#12 NoName on 08.14.19 at 5:04 pm

#81 why oh why? on 08.14.19 at 6:35 am
#49 NoName on 08.13.19 at 8:55 pm
and if you realy, realy want to make a point use 50 yrs cart dji vs gold
https://imgur.com/a/waqHVQN
____________________________________________

i assume gold is the yellow line in your chart? which is higher than the DOW/SP, meaning over the last 50 years, gold has beat stocks? is that the point you are trying to make?

All my charts, when i look at them i take them back to 2000, for one reason only that is a time i become aware of the market and start having decent earnings. for me it even pointles to look anything past 98.

and on a side note
My earliest memory is around when i was 3-is summer of 1979 i remember playing in park by fountain with my mother, and watching water in fountain and falling in it, right then and there is where i got traumatized afraid of water, i assure you my personal hygiene vaouch for that. Wait, i forgot what was a point i was trying to make, never mind…

How about that 30 yrs cart is it yellow line above or below red line?
https://imgur.com/a/azlgUGO

#13 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 08.14.19 at 5:07 pm

Is there anything we Dogg’s can do to help Garth ?

#14 GrumpyPanda on 08.14.19 at 5:09 pm

Saw many large headlines today about how short term bond yields were now higher than long term yields. Forecasts of recession and alien invasion. Then the small print: 2 year yield 1.63%. 10 year 1.62%.

#15 joblo on 08.14.19 at 5:09 pm

Oct 22
Hmm….. do I stay or do I go?

#16 Fredo on 08.14.19 at 5:10 pm

Isn’t Husky Energy down 61% from a year ago, yikes! looking back 5 years ago at $38 versus $8.50 today, really devastating.

#17 tccontrarian on 08.14.19 at 5:12 pm

“And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.”
– – –

Well, almost everyone! Sometimes I feel like a kid at a candy-store with all the ‘goodies’ on sale (mostly energy stocks, and some EM ETFs I’m following). I hope some of you were picking up the bargoons!

On the other hand, and I hate to say it but I did warn of US Markets being ‘toppy’ and hence high-risk (if you were long, of course).

Anyway, it seems no-one is listening so, right or wrong, I’ll stop posting my prognostications. They’re probably not welcome by the hosts anyway!

So, see y’all in 2021 AFTER the SP500 has lost > 50%, Nasdaq >60%. Until then, see if you can figure out what ‘TCC’ stands for. There will be a prize for the winner. ;)

TCC

#18 Cristian on 08.14.19 at 5:14 pm

“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”

John Kenneth Galbraith.

#19 Nonplused on 08.14.19 at 5:23 pm

The world wide web is turning out to be an interesting insight into the nature of humanity. We aren’t nearly as civilized as we thing we are. Nearly the first thing that happened was the rise of internet porn. It’s so big now that hardly anyone pays for it anymore. And of course the Nigerian scams. And online gambling. I can’t understand how anyone with a high school understanding at math still gambles. How is it that the word hasn’t gotten out? Gambling is a good way to get nothing for something. And it’s usually the people who can afford it the least that do it the most.

The fact of the matter is that there is always someone trying to steal your stuff, and they will destroy you to get it if they have to. That is the true nature of humanity. Plus the fact we are a bunch of perverts and can’t do math.

#20 Andrewski on 08.14.19 at 5:24 pm

My better half & I were recently visiting family who live approximately 30 minutes north of Calgary. We saw many, many signs posted looking for workers. Homes in these small towns average a measly $200 – $300K!

#21 Stone on 08.14.19 at 5:25 pm

#6 Stone on 08.14.19 at 4:44 pm
First, the crumble in Vancouver. Then the blog terrorists. Please ensure you have the correct gear (protective eyewear, gloves, sidearm etc.) before proceeding. Thank you. And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.

———

So how’s the good old balanced and globally diversified ETF portfolio doing at this point?

Just ducky. Far better than an all-equity one. – Garth

———

In the near term, I agree. On a YTD basis, an all equity portfolio with it’s distributions for that period is still ok. If you zero out the FI component of a balanced and diversified portfolio and divide the percentages on the equity component by 0.6, the YTD return with distributions is still a bit over 9%. I personally wouldn’t do an all equity portfolio myself as I’m not a cowboy but it’s not bad. I assume the B&D portfolio is around 5.5% to 6% YTD?

#22 Stone on 08.14.19 at 5:26 pm

#14 GrumpyPanda on 08.14.19 at 5:09 pm
Saw many large headlines today about how short term bond yields were now higher than long term yields. Forecasts of recession and alien invasion. Then the small print: 2 year yield 1.63%. 10 year 1.62%.

———

Alien invasion it is then. LOL

#23 Shawn on 08.14.19 at 5:32 pm

50 bps BOC cut coming

#24 JSS on 08.14.19 at 5:38 pm

“The meme coming out of the real estate cartel lately in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and (even) Calgary is that the storm’s abating. Buyers are coming back. ”

Why Calgary? What’s there?

#25 jess on 08.14.19 at 5:38 pm

Microsoft is warning Windows 10 users to update their operating system immediately because of two “critical” vulnerabilities.
The company said the vulnerabilities are potentially “wormable,” meaning affected computers could spread viruses and malware without any action on the user’s part.

#26 Tony Deliale on 08.14.19 at 5:39 pm

Everyone is talking about lower interest rates but what is wrong with a retiree living on corporate bond interest like Enbridge 4.0% YTM 2042 maturity.

Enbridge has been around a long time now.

#27 Howard on 08.14.19 at 5:47 pm

Picked up some HSD as a hedge. Retest of the December lows seems very likely.

Trump insulting Powell yet again. Frankly he should just give the President what he wants. “You want 0% rates Mr. Trump?? You want em?? You got em!! Have fun!”.

#28 Lost...but not leased on 08.14.19 at 5:48 pm

Garth..

Noticed your photo of you with your wife.

(2) points

(i)What a cradle robber your are..

(ii) Now I see where all the good advice comes from..can we bypass you and contact her ?

PS We are all invited for the 50th anniversary party (except elevator fart man)…correct ?

#29 acdel on 08.14.19 at 5:51 pm

#18 Cristian

Ah yes; but the reality, the one’s that should be flushing the real estate market and stock market are “BROKE”, just look around in the neighborhood! Clear indicator of what is happening!

#30 Penny Henny on 08.14.19 at 5:51 pm

#17 tccontrarian on 08.14.19 at 5:12 pm
“And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.”
– – –

Well, almost everyone! Sometimes I feel like a kid at a candy-store with all the ‘goodies’ on sale (mostly energy stocks, and some EM ETFs I’m following). I hope some of you were picking up the bargoons!

On the other hand, and I hate to say it but I did warn of US Markets being ‘toppy’ and hence high-risk (if you were long, of course).

Anyway, it seems no-one is listening so, right or wrong, I’ll stop posting my prognostications. They’re probably not welcome by the hosts anyway!
/////////////

No don’t stop.
Just keep them short so even if it doesn’t get posted at least you didn’t waste much time.
Same goes for you Bdwy Sktrn

#31 Blacksheep on 08.14.19 at 5:57 pm

crazyfox # 118,

According to you, the world is ending in 12 years, but you waste your time spewing this hate filled drivel?

You just used up, any shred of credibility you had left.

#32 Sail away on 08.14.19 at 6:03 pm

#5 Yanniel on 08.14.19 at 4:26 pm
#99 Sail away on 08.14.19 at 11:58 am
#63 Yanniel on 08.13.19 at 10:45 pm

———————————————-

Thanks Sail away, but I still don’t get why you say the concept of CAGR is not applicable to gold.

CAGR mathematical definition:
CAGR = ( EV / BV)1/n – 1
where:
EV = Investment’s ending value
BV = Investment’s beginning value
n = Number of periods (months, years, etc.)

This definition works for any investment: gold, other commodities, stocks, bonds regardless of whether the investment pays dividends, coupons or just appreciate via capital gains.

How is this definition not applicable to gold?

——————————————-

I agree that the concept is applicable and the value change of a commodity can be expressed in CAGR in order to compare to other investments. The difference is that while an item can increase in value, it’s not due to a compounding effect, but rather a value change only.

An analogy: if you buy 2 rabbits that have 10 living offspring per pair per year, at the end of 5 years, you will have 15,552 rabbits.

One ounce of gold will still be one ounce of gold, but the value may have changed.

Value change is not actually compounding, but it can be related to compounding for comparison.

#33 Dolce Vita on 08.14.19 at 6:10 pm

Agree with the RE analyst, though, most of that you can glean from Saretsky and what other analysts are saying. Nothing new, yet another voice of truth is a good thing.

The short of it is that RE corrections take 7-10 years to play out. YVR and 416 are but 2 years into it. One thing that escapes most is that RE corrections correlate to this:

The higher the peak price, the greater the fall in price.

Common sense and Toronto’s average home history since 1954. This means that your analysts -30% drop estimate for YVR (and 416 by association) is a tepid prediction.

The last Toronto RE correction in 1989 was (peak to trough, 7 yrs):

-39%.

This correction will be much worse for YVR and 416.

#34 IM in C on 08.14.19 at 6:12 pm

Garth. What is your take on the Calgary real estate market ?

#35 Dolce Vita on 08.14.19 at 6:26 pm

Regarding my last post on RE corrections I take note a lot of new Commenter names as of late, so for your edification a chart I put together using TREB avg. home price data since 1969, corrected for inflation using BoC numbers (the “Regs” here know it well as does My Liege):

https://i.imgur.com/0YST700.png

The red trend line created using Linear Regression.

The mid-1950’s Toronto RE correction shown in Marisha Robinsky’s chart (a 416 Realtor, very nice lady, we have conversed about this via the Internet, comparing notes) – scroll to mid way down the web page, 1st chart:

https://www.torontohomes-for-sale.com/Toronto-average-real-estate-property-prices.html

Prior post, my bad, the ’50’s correction peaked in the late 1950’s, not 1954 as I stated in my prior post. I did not use these numbers as they are not from TREB. Marisha has been a Realtor for a long time and thus, used her data sources from back then to provide those 50’s numbers. TREB started publishing avg. home price numbers in 1969.

Again:

The larger the peak, the greater the price fall.

YVR and 416 have seen nothing yet, much more to come.

History is a good teacher, few students.

#36 Axehead on 08.14.19 at 6:38 pm

#11. The answer according to Stephen King is: read alot; write alot.

#37 Shawn Allen on 08.14.19 at 6:42 pm

Share Buy Backs _ How Far Can They Go?

Just Watch Them.

Some highly profitable companies have bought back so many shares that their book equity is negative. Dollarama is such a case. Its balance sheet has lots of debt and negative equity. The lenders don’t mind.

Bombardier also has negative equity – for far different reasons.

What if the likes of Dollarama keeps on buying back all its shares until none are left?

Who would own the company? Would it own itself? Would it become a like a co-op? There are corporate entities out there without owners. Blue Cross?

What would stop this? Shares would simply get too expensive probably.

Is it theoretically possible? It would likely have to be a case where the shares just kept trading way below their “true” value. Are there regulatory barriers?

And someone said, there are no dumb questions! Some might take that as a challenge.

#38 Dolce Vita on 08.14.19 at 6:50 pm

Oh Garth, you can be such a debutante when it comes to Server attacks. Ask anyone who has been the Admin. of one, including me. I liked your righteous indignation. THAT was good. Reads you have a very good Admin. Good on you Garth.

As to the Markets, the Dystopia Tweet King himself Trump will kiss and make up with Xi by early next year if not earlier. Then all things will end well, for now.

Unlikely Trump will want to give up his Most Powerful Man on Earth designation – for once in his life, the real thing; thus, kiss and make up with Xi a must for him.

But, I believe he will lose next year to Biden.

Biden not that much different in views than Trump (just watch a Dem debate and Biden is the only one that is not a Lefty Progressive Lunatic). Biden is a “Trump Light” with his only weakness being he loves to lovingly fondle anyone younger than himself as a good Gran Dad does (younger means almost 99.98% of the people he encounters, the number a Stat joke…+/- 3 Sigma).

Biden will have the same platform as Trump minus the bluster, bravado and conspiracies. America will elect him for that alone.

#39 why oh why? on 08.14.19 at 7:01 pm

#12 NoName on 08.14.19 at 5:04 pm
____________________________________________

that’s funny. all my charts go back at least 100 years. gives you perspective.

#40 Flop... on 08.14.19 at 7:04 pm

DELETED

#41 LP on 08.14.19 at 7:06 pm

#11 Ian on 08.14.19 at 4:59 pm

Hi Ian

Try to find a copy of “The Elements of Style” by Strunk & White. There may be new ones at the usual sites but more likely you’ll find second-hand ones.

Some of it is very old fashioned – though no less correct for all that – but the majority is just plain good sense and the lessons stick, at least, they did for me. You’ll soon learn the differences between take/bring, wound/injure, fewer/amount and lots more. And maybe you will also learn not to use the dreadful word “gotten” but that’s a bridge too far for many people.

Good luck and congratulations for wanting to better our spoken and written word!

#42 Yanniel on 08.14.19 at 7:08 pm

#32 Sail away on 08.14.19 at 6:03 pm

“Value change is not actually compounding”

“The difference is that while an item can increase in value, it’s not due to a compounding effect, but rather a value change only.”

I thank you for your explanation, but I don’t agree. Compounding returns literally happen every day on the market.

“assume there is a stock that can only go up either +X% or down –X%….in any two-day period…”

“in the case where the stock went up +X% and then down -X% (or down –X% and then up +X%), we did not end up back at our starting wealth. Rather, we ended up with a loss of -X%2.

On the other hand, we can see that when the stock goes the same direction, we actually outperform twice the daily return by +X%2.

What’s going on here?

It is nothing more than the math of compound returns. The returns of the second day compound the returns of the first.” – Flirting with Models.

#43 LP on 08.14.19 at 7:08 pm

Ian – in the last sentence above, I meant to type your and not our.

#44 Dolce Vita on 08.14.19 at 7:12 pm

One last Comment and then ‘Outta Here.

Death and taxes.

Maxims of life.

In so far as equities go, Death doing very well in my meager portfolio…up near 9% since mid-June, excluding small dividend amounts every month.

Death seems unaffected by Trump Tweets as it marches to a different cadence – that of mortality.

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia.

#45 Yanniel on 08.14.19 at 7:14 pm

Missed the caret symbol (^) in my previos comment.

By “X%2” I really meant “X%^2”. Where 2 is an exponent.

#46 Long-Time Lurker on 08.14.19 at 7:24 pm

>I think he’s right about the algorithms. I may be wrong but I’m not worried about August. September’s another story.

https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1161667805906948097

Douglas Kass

Q, the lack of liquidity worked to the benefit of the markets yesterday and to the detriment of the markets today.

Machines and algos have outsized role in influencing prices in a market they dominate and in which retail investors have exited and instit investors are not active.

8:56 AM – 14 Aug 2019

#47 Rick O'laughlin on 08.14.19 at 7:26 pm

Hey, Tony Deliale, if want to get 5.0% a year yield to maturity corporate bond then Enbridge has a 2078 maturity bond.

#48 expat on 08.14.19 at 7:30 pm

Koch Industries dumped ALL! of its Alberta oilsands assets.

3% off all the averages. 8th largest drop in Dow history.

15 Trillion in negative rate bonds worldwide

25% of ALL SOVEREIGN DEBT NOW NEGATIVE RATES (WOW!) If you can’t inflate it away – create a new term called negative interest ratesto help broke governments cope with debt they can never pay back.

Hong Kong people buying any passport to get out. (Long term this will have a huge impact) EU countries can’t keep up with apps for financial residency in the last months.

Just another day at the office.

Oh and Trump tweeted for a face to face meeting with XI tonight.

He played the bully and went too far and has had his ass handed to him. Watching him squirm must make the chinese oh so very happy.
Expect no reply as they will exact extreme pain

another day at the office.

Real Estate is so yesterday

#49 expat on 08.14.19 at 7:36 pm

I found out who took the 1 billion dollar bond buyback.
There is one hell of alot of secrecy around this.
For good reason

Good on you Garth to stress a balance strategy. It saved alot of people today.

I expect margin desks will calling all night long for tomorrow liquidation.

Bloodbath phase underway. Just another normal intermediate cycle face ripoff day it shoudl end soon
enough

Clearer skies will come someday soon

#50 Leo Trollstoy on 08.14.19 at 7:36 pm

I see the pic today is one of the branch manager

#51 akashic record on 08.14.19 at 7:47 pm

Visitors from China heard they can have a heads up here first when the RE crash comes to Vancouver :)

#52 Tim on 08.14.19 at 7:52 pm

Thank you William.

#53 unbalanced on 08.14.19 at 7:56 pm

Does TCC stand for the THE CLASSIC CREEP? Just wondering.

#54 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 7:58 pm

Hey Flop you are getting deleted a bunch these days . What’s up ? Fake Flop ??

#55 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 8:00 pm

and again , where is Happy Housing Crash Everyone ( HHCE ) ?

#56 Flop... on 08.14.19 at 8:03 pm

#40 Flop… on 08.14.19 at 7:04 pm
DELETED

//////////////////

Hello imposter, Garth is not going to publish you.

Good to see I didn’t waste my time pleading for this nonsense to stop.

I’ve always insisted its a sad day for this blog when I’m the voice of reason.

This kind of stuff is comprises the integrity of the comments section.

Don’t take it for granted…

M45BC

#57 Gary Tan on 08.14.19 at 8:12 pm

I bought on Friday last week some Hydro One 2037-Sept-15 bonds with a 3.41% yield for 20% sitting cash allocation of my RRSP’s. What a day today. It looks like interest rates will be falling even more.

The roughly $1,700 for each of the 2 semi-annual interest payments a year and my quarterly RRSP, TFSA contributions will be reinvested in some utility and dividend ETF’s.

#58 Ex-Kelowna on 08.14.19 at 8:12 pm

Thanks once again Garth for your daily dose of wisdom, expertise, common sense advice and humor – very much appreciated!

#59 acdel on 08.14.19 at 8:12 pm

#20 Andrewski

That is absolutely “NOT TRUE”! Perhaps there are a couple of jobs where one needs years of experience to be eligible for this but for the masses it is hard work and low pay.

Met a young lady today; working her butt off in manual labour. Graduated in her top percentile of her class in H.R.; just over the summer, she sent out 430 resumes to jobs applied for; not one response; and hey, I live in Alberta so stop spreading false news. Things are not good here!

#60 badadmin on 08.14.19 at 8:18 pm

Um if there are hundreds of attacks per hour (anyone who watches firewall logs would obviously be aware of that), and thats normal, then the site would be down everyday. Everyone’s would. So in conclusion, it is not the cause of your downtime.

You are even behind cloudflare which has ddos protection. Those logs do not indicate an attack, but as he said, normal internet bot traffic. And not much of it if you are only getting a few attacks per hour… So being down probably had nothing to do with those small amounts of attacks.
I don’t think your admin told you the full story. a DDOS has thousands of attacks measured per minute, not per hour, and they don’t look at all like the logs you have shared. Cloudflare should 100% be protecting you. If you had database errors odds are its actually the webhost screwing up, probably caused by simple human error.

#61 Green shirt dude on 08.14.19 at 8:19 pm

Flop… on 08.14.19 at 8:03 pm
#40 Flop… on 08.14.19 at 7:04 pm
DELETED

//////////////////
….integrity of the comments section.

…..

Ok now that was a hilarious!!

#62 Tyberius on 08.14.19 at 8:20 pm

#55 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 8:00 pm

and again , where is Happy Housing Crash Everyone ( HHCE ) ?

/ / / / /

My guess is that he gave in to FOMO and bought – and now is ashamed after all the energy s/he put into it.

Just a guess tho…

#63 Flop... on 08.14.19 at 8:25 pm

#54 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 7:58 pm
Hey Flop you are getting deleted a bunch these days . What’s up ? Fake Flop ??

///////////////////

Hey North Shore, yeah someone trying to cause problems.

Sadly I’ve spent more time lately writing Garth off-blog than posting trying to protect myself and Boom from being disrespected.

I feel very passionate about this.

I don’t like it one bit.

I am currently being impersonated by someone, the people doing the Boom thing are not trying to copy his writing style, just being generally disrespectful to a guy that deserves better.

I’ll tell you how passionate I am about this.

The other day I stole my wife’s long distance phone card and called Garth personally to try and end this nonsense.

I yelled passionately down the line for about five minutes.

Then I got of the line and noticed it was his anniversary.

Not the present he had wished , I bet.

On the plus side at least he really knows now that I grew up in Australia…

M45BC

M64WI

#64 Camille on 08.14.19 at 8:25 pm

US 10 year bond was at 3.2% not long ago. Now it’s 1.6. It’s not far away from zero. I can see it happen. Will take longer for Fed to follow but follow it will I think. So bond prices are up but the yield to maturity is going to be down down. Then bonds will work their way to to face value. So I will get low returns with decreasing value over a long time. So should I buy stocks, reit, utilities… and keep minimal bonds. My portfolio will be like RJs. They said low returns were to be the norm. We’ll all crowd into stocks and all wind up at the same place.

#65 Unhinged Trader on 08.14.19 at 8:35 pm

I’m financially ruined…

#66 AGuyInVancouver on 08.14.19 at 8:37 pm

#51 akashic record on 08.14.19 at 7:47 pm
Visitors from China heard they can have a heads up here first when the RE crash comes to Vancouver :)
_ _ _
They’ll have nobody but themselves to blame:
“Chinese tycoon Li Jianhua fights daughter over Canada real estate fortune in lawsuits depicting knife violence, fraud and corporate turmoil”
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/money-wealth/article/3021721/chinese-tycoon-li-jianhua-fights-daughter-over-canada-real

#67 Westcdn on 08.14.19 at 8:56 pm

I get choked when I see the golden parachutes the top of executives receive when their company is bought out. This seems to be the pension plan of stupid results for elites. When the business fails, they seek a buyer so they can cash in their employment agreements. This galls me as they put their interests before workers and shareholders. As much as I rant against public servants, these heroes are worst. Own your failures and make way for other than protégés… I still like gold companies …

I laughed when I saw this B&B. I still like Idaho as a retirement destination.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/giant-dog-statue-idaho-actually-223400347.html

#68 Shawn Allen on 08.14.19 at 8:59 pm

Election?

My recollection is that the 2015 federal election was all the news in August 2015. This year? Almost nothing. Of course it is hard to compete with Trump for news.

Just seems like a real yawn of an election.

#69 acdel on 08.14.19 at 9:04 pm

Need to add a little humour to today’s blog. Ever imagine seeing Bill Clinton in drag; oh come on, no disrespect, but seriously this picture is just hilarious! Could care less of the politics behind this! :)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7353967/Did-Jeffrey-Epstein-portrait-Bill-Clinton-blue-dress-red-heels-NYC-mansion.html

#70 acdel on 08.14.19 at 9:17 pm

#67 Westcdn

Good Post! You get it!

#71 Soccer Mom on 08.14.19 at 9:44 pm

We were in Fort McMurray last weekend for the tier 3 soccer provincials. First time I have ever been there. Several observations.

All the dead trees (still standing, surprisingly) speak greatly to how terrifying the fire must have been. Why on earth there isn’t a 1 km zone around a town of that size where all the trees are cut and cattle are allowed to graze is beyond me. The refineries all have fire setbacks, towns should too.

The economy still sucks. Many of the restaurants and shops are permanently closed. You can’t get something to eat at 9:30 on a Saturday night. The Burger King drive through is the only thing open. Even McDonald’s was closed. So imagine a whole soccer team of kids walking through the Burger King drive trough because we chartered a bus to get there and there was literally no other food options after our last game that day. Thankfully the staff was good natured and allowed the kids to walk up to the window. Shout out to the Burger King staff!

The grass grows surprisingly well. Someone said it was because of the long hours of sunlight in the summer.

Our hosts (Fort McMurray soccer) did a wonderful job. Their team and parents were also the best natured of the ones we played. (They beat us, but they were gracious as victors.)

Fort McMurray is not the end of the world, but you can definitely see it from there.

About the only thing to do in town other than play sports is visit the Oil Sands interpretive center. It was informative. Do you greens know that eventually the mining sites are converted back to boreal forest? It takes a while of course because the mining has to be complete and then all the water has to evaporate and the sand has to be put back where it came from but in the end they put the fill back on top and plant trees. Haters have to hate but there is nothing environmentally degrading about the oil sands long term. You end up with trees, just like before. And gas for your car. But it does take a while.

My takeaway from this trip was to hate Turdeau and his band of humanity hating faux green commie liberals even more profoundly. The good people of Fort Mac are just trying to eek out a living by bringing energy to the people in an environmentally responsible manner. Turdeau (and Nutely) takes their taxes but when their town is threatened with total destruction they won’t even rent the Russian water bombers that were made available to them. They’d rather let the town burn. Nutely never should have been premier in the first place, terrible policies and ideas, but her total lack of action when Fort Mac burned sealed her fate. Nobody who has ever been there will ever vote NDP again. The commies want your money, but they won’t give you anything back not even fire fighting. They are literally no different than mosquitoes.

#72 MF on 08.14.19 at 9:59 pm

#48 expat on 08.14.19 at 7:30 pm

-Tons of Hong Kongers are returning to Canada (or immigrating here too):

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2150091/number-hongkongers-planning-leave-new-lives-canada

Hundreds of thousands already possessed Canadian passports. One of the largest communities of Canadians outside of Canada. Partially due to the British history of both Canada and Hong Kong.

The above article was from 2018. Expect the inflows to be greatly increased by now.

I don’t think most people grasp how important the situation in Hong Kong is. It has the potential to disrupt the status quo in many countries around the world. It all depends on the Chinese response to the demonstrations…and it’s not looking good.

MF

#73 acdel on 08.14.19 at 10:03 pm

#71 Soccer Mom

Another good post from someone who actually experienced the situation instead of posting false news items! Good on you; thank you!

#74 TRUMP on 08.14.19 at 10:07 pm

DELETED

#75 Phylis on 08.14.19 at 10:14 pm

Hey Garth can you line up Ryan for an annual update of his October 28th, 2017 post?

#76 JSS on 08.14.19 at 10:17 pm

#71 Soccer Mom

Having a bad day in Alberta? Blame Trudeau and notley.

#77 acdel on 08.14.19 at 10:32 pm

If I was an Olympic judge I would give this Moose a Gold medal for this most impressive dive. :)

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/videos/gallery/on-cam-moose-dives-antlersfirst-into-water-off-newfoundland-cliff/sharevideo/6072563886001/most_popular

#78 MF on 08.14.19 at 10:34 pm

#38 Dolce Vita on 08.14.19 at 6:50 pm

“Biden will have the same platform as Trump minus the bluster, bravado and conspiracies. America will elect him for that alone.”

-I disagree.

Biden represents the Obama era to a lot of Americans, and it’s an era firmly in the rear view mirror. It’s also an era that produced Trump. Putting him against Trump will just refuel Trump’s popularity and cause a repeat of 2016.

Also, Americans will or will not vote for someone based on their race/identity. On American forums I frequent it’s all they talk about. It’s really a divided society right now (sort of what Garth posted about yesterday). Much worse than the Canadians on the boards, who generally band together. Does Biden fit the bill for the average Democrat voter these days? I guess time will tell. His age is also a negative.

So expect four more years of Trump. If a trade deal with China is reached (which is likely) before the election, it will be the ultimate clincher.

MF

#79 the Jaguar on 08.14.19 at 10:38 pm

#24 JSS on 08.14.19 at 5:38 pm
“The meme coming out of the real estate cartel lately in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and (even) Calgary is that the storm’s abating. Buyers are coming back. ”

Why Calgary? What’s there?

Ssshushhhhh…… Move along now. Nothing to see here. These aren’t the Droids you are looking for…….

#80 Stock Watcher on 08.14.19 at 10:57 pm

SNC Lavalin stock has dropped A LOT

#81 Sail Away on 08.14.19 at 11:21 pm

#42 Yanniel on 08.14.19 at 7:08 pm
#32 Sail away on 08.14.19 at 6:03 pm

“Value change is not actually compounding”

————————————————

I thank you for your explanation, but I don’t agree. Compounding returns literally happen every day on the market.

————————————————-

That’s fine. We don’t have to agree. It’s actually not that important, to be honest.

#82 Jenny Wang on 08.14.19 at 11:45 pm

Wow, the MSM is an adult fantasy comic book world these days. Political porn from the US has the CBC running around with a g-string and pasties looking for a way to deflect Trudeaus latest Ethics summation.

Don’t you just love the dog days of summer when the world falls apart taking the stock market with it? I wonder how many blog dogs understand that brokers have holidays too and leave only junior staff on the desks leading to wide swings on low inventory. It’s like giving your car keys to the kids for the weekend. Come September this wild volitility will be history. It isn’t Trump, the MSM just doesn’t have any other sponsors aside from the Trump Hate Democrats.

As yields go beyond 6% on my favorite stocks I continue to buy with the assurance that my fellow humans in journalism know nothing about our business. Germany slow down? How is that important? They’ve been in slow motion collapse for years, Deutsch Bank anyone? Italy, Spain, Greece, UK? So the headline ghouls picked Germany as a summer vacay, so what? China, seriously, a tempest in a tea pot. They account for 1% of international settlements. China may as well be Mexico for all the effect is has on the US economy. But, if it’s anti Trump, it leads.

About Gong Kong effect on Vancouver, don’t be surprised if there’s a sudden repatriation of some 300,000 passports plus all thier relations . I got rich, my first million off the HK handover. It’s happened before. The media is showing bland pictures of jostling crowds, but don’t report the raw emotion of the people involved. It’s a powder keg. Another media deflection away from Trudeau. Lots of bargains popping up, don’t be fooled by the millions in American and Globalist propaganda dollars flooding in to hypnotize you.

#83 april on 08.14.19 at 11:52 pm

yes and their all coming to Vancouver… as if….

#84 Steve French on 08.15.19 at 12:08 am

Portfolio down $3,800 in 24 hours!! (Minus 1.53%).

My hair is on fire….. Run for the hills!!!!

Time to bring out the melancholic music-

This one’s for my ole ‘Nam buddy Smoking Man

“The Doors – The End (Apocalypse Now)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZoFYCDRMYM

#85 Tony on 08.15.19 at 12:32 am

I can’t wait to free up more cash to by more ETF’s. Buy low, sell never.

#86 Different Stan on 08.15.19 at 1:05 am

What would anyone say is a reasonable timeframe to hang on to an investment that is not returning anything?
Honest question, I am just wandering if I might be to emotionally invested to just wrapp it up-year and a half ago I invested in DB portfolio that can’t even cover inflation. I know it’s not very long yet, but the future doesn’t seem all that bright either.
Is it time to look of opportunities elsewhere?

#87 Smoking Man on 08.15.19 at 1:30 am

Differance between a communists and capitalist.

A capitalist wants to help people, find a problem to solve, find an missed need to fill. The by product of the spirt of goodness results in a shit load of loot. But loot was never the motivation. The trill of the gamble and helping others was the motivation.

A communist hates the risk taker. The Theiving lunatics want the same life style while giving society nothing in return. They salivate with jelousness, organize mobs hoping one day they can steal from a risk taker.

Communists fail 100% of the time when its tried.

Why?

One is a pathetic coward and thieve. The other is balls all in risk taker who’s goal is to help people.

Your marxists teachers took a shit load of money from you and made you crazy.. when your parents die your going to starve.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#88 Ronaldo on 08.15.19 at 1:32 am

#21 Stone on 08.14.19 at 5:25 pm

7.2%

#89 Howard on 08.15.19 at 1:45 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-vancouvers-empty-home-tax-is-returning-inventory-to-rental-market/

Vancouver’s empty-home tax is returning inventory to rental market

People are putting in new basement suites and laneway homes so that the main house can remain empty but still avoid the empty homes tax. Lots of new supply coming online as a result. The EHT is simply excellent policy.

Thank you Premier Horgan for putting the interests of the people first!

#90 Smoking Man on 08.15.19 at 1:54 am

It’s got to suck to be a CEO of a multinational Corp these days.

You made it to the top by being the best dodge ball player in the room. And now the mob at the meeting wants you to do a freak show Gillette commercial.

Your gut says. That will be a dodge ball smashing the head, but you are in conflict with that bonus that’s taxed at 25%..

Avoide polatics. Make the best product. Insticts dogs.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#91 ugh on 08.15.19 at 2:01 am

Oh boy… technical analysis?

You mean, horoscopes? Because that’s pretty much what it is.

Technical Analysis does not work for stock markets, and it certainly will not work for RE markets.

Just keep it to the fundamentals, please.

Sigh.

#92 AACI Homedog on 08.15.19 at 2:09 am

Prior to being elected, Trudeau said he was for electoral reform. Then changed his mind. Don’t forget that, come October.

#93 Smoking Man on 08.15.19 at 2:39 am

My song.

https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo

Good night.

#94 Ft Mac Jack on 08.15.19 at 4:11 am

DELETED

#95 Dolce Vita on 08.15.19 at 4:59 am

“Trudeau broke ethics rules by trying to exert influence in SNC-Lavalin scandal: report”

https://globalnews.ca/news/5764034/justin-trudeau-snc-lavalin-broke-ethics-rules/

There is no end to Justin’s arrogance and deception. The above video link is a testament to that. He needs to step down and RESIGN, plain and simple.

Canadian’s are a law abiding people. NO ONE INCLUDING THE PM IS ABOVE THE LAW.

Justin (and the MSM as of today) underestimate the fury Canadian’s will have over this. As for Liberal me, LIVID is n understatement.

If he does not resign, come October he will destroy the Liberal brand for a decade perhaps more ala Kim Campbell. And that will not be healthy for Fed Gov w/o an effective opposition with enough numbers to look into all Gov machinations.

————————————————————

-A SAD Ex-pat Canadian Buongiorno d’Italia.

#96 MF on 08.15.19 at 7:01 am

#82 Jenny Wang on 08.14.19 at 11:45 pm

Great Gordonski is that you?

Be honest.

MF

#97 Trisha Middleton on 08.15.19 at 7:35 am

Remember the ad scam and the Gomery inquiry with the Jean Chretien, Paul Martin Liberals. Here we go again with the Liberals doing wrong and breaking rules.

I would not be surprised if there is a whole host of corruption about this and others. Isn’t SNC Lavalin connected also with the McGunity, Wynee Ontario Liberals with all their pet projects from transit to infrastructure.

#98 PastThePeak on 08.15.19 at 7:54 am

Two ethics violations for Trudeau in one term! A record. Who says he isn’t busy doing stuff…

#99 Dominoes Lining Up on 08.15.19 at 7:56 am

Just watched former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers on CNN this morning. He paints a pretty dark picture of a big recession coming soon, long overdue.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-11/economy-at-riskiest-point-in-a-decade-lawrence-summers-says

If this starts in the US the ripple effect here could be serious, it could become the final tipping point for Canadian real estate, not just in YVR but in the east as well. I am hearing more and more about people struggling with everyday living costs so anything that slows down the economy and costs jobs could be very impactful.

#100 why oh why? on 08.15.19 at 8:16 am

#91 ugh on 08.15.19 at 2:01 am

technical analysis is the ONLY thing that works for stock markets. the ONLY thing.

#101 SunDays on 08.15.19 at 8:20 am

#26 Tony Deliale on 08.14.19 at 5:39 pm
Everyone is talking about lower interest rates but what is wrong with a retiree living on corporate bond interest like Enbridge 4.0% YTM 2042 maturity.

#57 Gary Tan on 08.14.19 at 8:12 pm
I bought on Friday last week some Hydro One 2037-Sept-15 bonds with a 3.41% yield for 20% sitting cash allocation of my RRSP’s. What a day today. It looks like interest rates will be falling even more.

————

Would be interested in your investment theses. Are you expecting negative interest rates coming to Canada? Are you OK to lose purchasing power of your capital allocated to these bonds in a Stagflation scenario?

#102 Gerry Santini on 08.15.19 at 8:50 am

Sundays, why isn’t anyone telling the truth that if inflation is 2%+ all bonds longer term should be 5%+.

Back in 2000 when inflation was 2.5%+ and unemployment was somewhere between 5% to 6%the Canada 30 year bond was 5.7% unlike today at 1.33%. This is all central banks printing money from nothing not money saved from the population and dumped on the bond market crashing bond rates, yields.

This is not an free enterprise economy anymore, it is manipulated by a money cartel called central banks. Remember OPEC which is basically an oil cartel.

For example, if tomorrow they started buying dividend paying stocks dividend yields would start to crash too. Who knows what might be next money opportunity they will will attack.

As for long dated corporate bonds, a think a major point nobody is talking about is what is the credit quality of the bond, will they last as a going concern and what if interest rates on government bonds even in 5 to 10 years return to more normal rate of 3.5% to 4%, those corporate bonds will easily lose value as much as 15% to 25% plus the commission of selling those bonds.

#103 dharma bum on 08.15.19 at 9:00 am

#19 Nonplused

Plus the fact we are a bunch of perverts and can’t do math.
——————————————————————–

Haha! More proof that we are all dumb animals. Just like the rest of the animals.

Humans:

A bunch of instinctive, obsessively primal copulation seekers.

#104 Jenny Wang on 08.15.19 at 9:38 am

#84 Steve F. If you’ve been following the rules and slowly building up a cash pile while the markets rose you’d be loving the downturn .

I heard Garth saying you should always be fully invested and rely on a HELOC otherwise. All debt is evil. I’ve never agreed with that, especially for times like this. Its a fact that markets go up and down, nice to get good stuff on sale once in a while. I’m in this for the long term. I’m no slacktivist.

If you’ve been buying lots of dividend payers then cash flow is never a problem. If you’re stuck with a 60/40 and no cash then absolute safety has robbed you of your ability to buy bargains as they present themselves. Always be buying. Never be stagnant. It’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that matters.

Sweet cash flow. The solution to every problem in life. With consistent dividend cash flow you don’t care where the markets pegged day to day, even year to year. If a recession sets in who cares? Go to Hawaii and let it all blow over.

#105 Justin S on 08.15.19 at 9:45 am

Interesting thoughts on YVR condos.

What’s the take on YYZ condos long-term – i.e. 5-10 year horizon? I know some people who bought precon a few years ago, and they’re just laughing.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19 at 9:45 am

@#25 Lost the lease

PS We are all invited for the 50th anniversary party (except elevator fart man)…correct ?
*****
Now now. Be nice
Besides.
I’m busy that weekend.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19 at 9:59 am

@#98 Past the Peak
“Two ethics violations for Trudeau in one term! ”
+++++
Amateur Hour
He’s just been caught at it.
More experienced political leaders would have been at least two PMO staffer’s away from “plausible deniability”.

Further proof he’s way out of his league as leader.
An international embarrassment.
Unfortunately he’s not quite as adept at entertaining us on a daily basis as Trump or Boris Johnson.

I’m sure he’ll win a majority of seats in Quebec for his SNC actions.
It played well there and , unfortunately, SNC type business tactics seem to be accepted in Quebec.
But not to worry, the stock markets and class action suits will crush whats left of SNC and then it’s carcass will have its bones picked clean…

Other publicly traded Quebec businesses should take note…

Former SNC employees ( such as myself and thousands of others over the years) that quit in disgust will be able to say “Je me Souvien” when its long dead and buried……. :)

#108 PastThePeak on 08.15.19 at 10:06 am

#17 tccontrarian on 08.14.19 at 5:12 pm
“And ignore the financial markets today. Everybody’s in a funk.”
– – –

Well, almost everyone! Sometimes I feel like a kid at a candy-store with all the ‘goodies’ on sale (mostly energy stocks, and some EM ETFs I’m following). I hope some of you were picking up the bargoons!

On the other hand, and I hate to say it but I did warn of US Markets being ‘toppy’ and hence high-risk (if you were long, of course).

Anyway, it seems no-one is listening so, right or wrong, I’ll stop posting my prognostications. They’re probably not welcome by the hosts anyway!

So, see y’all in 2021 AFTER the SP500 has lost > 50%, Nasdaq >60%. Until then, see if you can figure out what ‘TCC’ stands for. There will be a prize for the winner. ;)

TCC
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hey @TCC – I for one appreciate your posts to get the information from the contrarian side…

#109 TurnerNation on 08.15.19 at 10:17 am

OH BOY found the admitted Sub Prime lender.
Pickleing Kanadians’ finances – total spectrum domination.
We’re at war you know.

GSY.TO.

“goeasy Ltd.’s easyfinancial division has surpassed a $1-billion consumer loan portfolio, its most significant milestone to date.

The Company opened its first easyfinancial kiosk in 2006 to fill the gap between traditional banks and high cost payday loans. It has since grown to over 400 combined easyfinancial and easyhome locations across the country, offering a full suite of unsecured and secured personal lending products to the 7 million Canadians with non-prime credit. easyfinancial accelerated its expansion journey through the introduction of its first stand-alone branch in 2011, followed by a fully digital online loan application in 2012 and the launch of point-of-sale financing in 2016. With a centralized credit adjudication system that utilizes custom proprietary scoring models built from data on over $3.4 billion in originations and over 400,000 loans issued since inception, goeasy aims to provide everyday Canadians with access to the credit they need, while putting them on a path to a better tomorrow, today.

“We are incredibly proud to achieve such a significant milestone on our journey to become the leading non-prime lender in Canada,” said Jason Mullins, goeasy’s President & Chief Executive Officer””

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19 at 10:26 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-pap/in-clear-warning-chinese-paramilitary-forces-exercise-near-hong-kong-idUSKCN1V50LV

Hmmmm.
One wonders if the 30th anniversary Of Tienanmen Square will be overshadowed by Hong Kong 2019?

CIA reports of 30 years ago:
The troops entering Beijing to quell the unrest in 1989 were all given “vitamin shots” to protect them from “disease” were actually methamphetamins designed to keep the troops awake for days and make them extremely aggressive…..

As every military leader knows.
Its one thing to meet “the enemy” on an open field ( Tienanmen square)
Street fighting, block by block ,in a modern urban city….. good luck with that…..Molotov cocktails used on Communist troops….Oh the irony.
Hong Kong reduced to rubble?
We may actually get to see the Iron Fist hidden inside the silk glove.
One million imprisoned Uighurs may be cheering the Hong Kong protesters on……

#111 Mattl on 08.15.19 at 10:52 am

#63 Flop… on 08.14.19 at 8:25 pm
#54 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 7:58 pm
Hey Flop you are getting deleted a bunch these days . What’s up ? Fake Flop ??

///////////////////

Hey North Shore, yeah someone trying to cause problems.

Sadly I’ve spent more time lately writing Garth off-blog than posting trying to protect myself and Boom from being disrespected.

I feel very passionate about this.

I don’t like it one bit.

I am currently being impersonated by someone, the people doing the Boom thing are not trying to copy his writing style, just being generally disrespectful to a guy that deserves better.

I’ll tell you how passionate I am about this.

The other day I stole my wife’s long distance phone card and called Garth personally to try and end this nonsense.

I yelled passionately down the line for about five minutes.

Then I got of the line and noticed it was his anniversary.

Not the present he had wished , I bet.

On the plus side at least he really knows now that I grew up in Australia…

M45BC

M64WI

————————————————————-

You really called Garth about someone using “your” name on a blog. Wow. Dude, I think you need to take a step back, you are WAY too into this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvd3aEsThbc

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19 at 10:53 am

SNC stock price June 2018 = $60.15
SNC stock price Aug 2019 = $16. 75 ( and falling….)
Can $6.00/share be far away?

Glad I dumped my (ex) employee shares at $45 several years back and washed my hands of them….
:)

#113 LP on 08.15.19 at 11:41 am

#71 Soccer Mom on 08.14.19 at 9:44 pm
********************************

Ironic that you use the expression, “haters gonna hate” and then proceed in your last paragraph to express hate for Mr. Trudeau (correct spelling) and other people in government, e.g. Rachel Notley (also correct spelling). Your insults speak more to the type of person you seem to be. In an ideal world, prime ministers, premiers, town mayors and councillors would govern to suit just yourself or me, would spend their time on single issues in your favour or mine. That isn’t going to happen, ever, so let’s all try to calm down, try to see all sides and, for the love of Pete, stop with the vicious name-calling and insulting language.

I read your words as ad hominem attacks and am surprised they got past the moderator’s sharp eyes.

#114 Billy on 08.15.19 at 11:54 am

Check the story on GE today – perfect example of why diversification matters. Trump blaming Powell for mounting recession fears – how predictable. Trade wars are easy to win unless someone else screws things up…

#115 Sandra Davria on 08.15.19 at 11:56 am

I was told that Canadian bank stocks are supposed to be great long term investments with healthy growing dividends but my CIBC stock I bought last September at $124.85 today I looked and it is much lower at $98.20.

This is a deep 21% drop and in just 11 months. I never owned bank stocks before so is this normal for a big Canadian bank like CIBC? The dividend yield is currently 5.6% which is great but what if they actually start cutting it to 4.5% or less in comparison to other Canadian banks.

Another blue chip example of why buying individual equities is a bad idea, unless you have a seven-figure portfolio. – Garth

#116 Sail away on 08.15.19 at 12:17 pm

#111 Mattl on 08.15.19 at 10:52 am
#63 Flop… on 08.14.19 at 8:25 pm
#54 yvrmc on 08.14.19 at 7:58 pm

—————————————–

I am currently being impersonated by someone, the people doing the Boom thing are not trying to copy his writing style, just being generally disrespectful to a guy that deserves better.

I’ll tell you how passionate I am about this.
The other day I stole my wife’s long distance phone card and called Garth personally to try and end this nonsense.

I yelled passionately down the line for about five minutes.

————————————————————-
You really called Garth about someone using “your” name on a blog. Wow. Dude, I think you need to take a step back, you are WAY too into this
——————————————–

Agreed. Flop, the only thing you can really control is yourself. Why would you ever think it’s your job or right to restrict someone else from using ‘Boom’ or ‘Flop’ as their handle?

Relax. It doesn’t matter.

Feel free to post as ‘Sail Away’ if you want. I won’t scream at Garth.

#117 MF on 08.15.19 at 12:24 pm

112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19

Total bloodbath with that stock.

Maybe Warren Buffet will buy it like he did home capital?

MF

#118 James on 08.15.19 at 12:36 pm

#84 Steve French on 08.15.19 at 12:08 am

Portfolio down $3,800 in 24 hours!! (Minus 1.53%).
My hair is on fire….. Run for the hills!!!!
Time to bring out the melancholic music-
This one’s for my ole ‘Nam buddy Smoking Man

“The Doors – The End (Apocalypse Now)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZoFYCDRMYM
__________________________________________
I just knew that crazy Old Man was not 60 and he is an American to boot. Vietnam must have done a number on his bald head. Thanks for confirming my suspicions Mr French. lmao

#119 Ronaldo on 08.15.19 at 12:39 pm

#49 expat on 08.14.19 at 7:36 pm

Good on you Garth to stress a balance strategy. It saved alot of people today.

—————————————————————
Yep. Down .37%. Up 7.2 ytd. 58% fixed. Stressless.

#120 James on 08.15.19 at 12:48 pm

#113 LP on 08.15.19 at 11:41 am

#71 Soccer Mom on 08.14.19 at 9:44 pm
********************************

Ironic that you use the expression, “haters gonna hate” and then proceed in your last paragraph to express hate for Mr. Trudeau (correct spelling) and other people in government, e.g. Rachel Notley (also correct spelling). Your insults speak more to the type of person you seem to be. In an ideal world, prime ministers, premiers, town mayors and councillors would govern to suit just yourself or me, would spend their time on single issues in your favour or mine. That isn’t going to happen, ever, so let’s all try to calm down, try to see all sides and, for the love of Pete, stop with the vicious name-calling and insulting language.

I read your words as ad hominem attacks and am surprised they got past the moderator’s sharp eyes.
___________________________________________
There is no need to insult Mr Socks, AKA Justin Trudeau. Just let him govern for a while and embarrass himself with his solecisms and his backroom antics. Then let him browbeat you on being a good social and just Canadian. Then just look him in eye and say liar! No need to attack just let Trudeau be himself (herself, no-gender self) in people-kind. Ewe…..I think I’m going to throw up Trudeau just makes me vomit…………….

#121 Ronaldo on 08.15.19 at 12:55 pm

#115 Sandra Davria on 08.15.19 at 11:56 am
I was told that Canadian bank stocks are supposed to be great long term investments with healthy growing dividends but my CIBC stock I bought last September at $124.85 today I looked and it is much lower at $98.20.

This is a deep 21% drop and in just 11 months. I never owned bank stocks before so is this normal for a big Canadian bank like CIBC? The dividend yield is currently 5.6% which is great but what if they actually start cutting it to 4.5% or less in comparison to other Canadian banks.

Another blue chip example of why buying individual equities is a bad idea, unless you have a seven-figure portfolio. – Garth
—————————————————————-
Yep, you bought at the 10 year peak. Bad timing.

You would have been better off just putting it in XTR which was 11.09 at the time you bought CIBC and which is 11.00 right now (5.3% ytd) and pays a reguar 5.4% dividend. Something to say about balance.

#122 Barb on 08.15.19 at 1:01 pm

Wow, maybe Mr. Xi is bored.
And a strange coincidence after reading the blog.

My Microsoft updated automatically before shutting it down last night. This morning my email Outlook 2010 won’t receive emails. Says Send/Receive error.

We all need a William.

#123 Cindy Thompson on 08.15.19 at 1:12 pm

Sandra Davria, during the 2008 to 2009 world financial mess most bank stocks worldwide dropped anywhere from 40% to 75%.

Even CIBC dropped down to the $45 per share during that time so don’t be surprised that bank stocks and other financial stocks can drop 30%, 40%, 50%+ in the future but after many years to their credit did bounce back and go higher making new highs.

#124 jess on 08.15.19 at 1:30 pm

A Tale of Three Cities: Short-Term Sales and Investment Activity in the Waterloo Region august 2019

This study seeks to better understand short-term sales and long-term investment activity in the three cities of Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo during the period between 2015 Q1 and 2018 Q2.

https://tinyurl.com/y6odfekt

#125 jess on 08.15.19 at 1:35 pm

Court Rules Leaked Documents Are Fair Game in Tax Case Against Glencore

Australia’s top court has rejected a move by one of the world’s most profitable companies to stop government officials from using leaked documents to assess its tax bill.

Australia’s High Court ruled unanimously on Wednesday that commodity giant Glencore could not rely on “legal privilege” to prevent the Australian Tax Office from accessing emails, bank records, PowerPoint presentations and other files from the 2017 Paradise Papers investigation. Typically, documents marked “privileged” do not have to be disclosed in court.

HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA
http://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2019/HCA/26

The offshore industry is a major threat for our democratic institutions and our basic social contract,” French economist Thomas Piketty, author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century told ICIJ. “Financial opacity is one of the key drivers of rising global inequality. It allows a large fraction of top income and top wealth groups to pay negligible tax rates, while the rest of us pay large taxes in order to finance the public goods and services (education, health, infrastructures) that are indispensable for the development process.”

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/glencore-feels-a-little-less-privileged-20190814-p52h16
——————–
2012
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/hearings/us-vulnerabilities-to-money-laundering-drugs-and-terrorist-financing-hsbc-case-history
HSBC pays record $1.9bn fine to settle US money-laundering accusations
This article is more than 6 years old
Bank guilty of ‘blatant failure’ to implement money-laundering controls and wilfully flouted sanctions, US prosecutors say
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/dec/11/hsbc-bank-us-money-laundering

Paradise Papers: The True Story Behind The Secret Nine-Month Investigation (HBO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8mdNahdo4M
Paradise Papers reveal use of cross-currency interest rate swaps, which are under investigation by the tax office tax authorities around the world are concerned by their being used between arms of multinational companies to enter into deals at unrealistic, non-commercial rates, then using the swaps as a way to shift profits from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions.

The Paradise Papers show that on 12 April 2013 two Bermuda-based arms of Glencore – Glencore Capital and Glencore Finance (Bermuda) – changed $25bn in Australian dollars to US dollars through Glencore Australia Investment Holdings.Another Australian entity, Glencore Australia Finance, engaged in currency swaps with Bermuda-based Glencore Capital: for A$25m on 15 April 2013; and A$10m on 24 June.

https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/tax-wars-follow-up-investigations-and-who-was-actually-in-the-paradise-papers/

A recent report by the International Monetary Fund cited the Paradise Papers in a study that found even more evidence that such treaties strip tax revenue from some of the world’s poorest countries.

#126 Sold Out on 08.15.19 at 1:43 pm

Like Garth says, recessions are inevitable, as are recoveries. Everyone gets hung up on “calling the bottom”, as if one can time the markets. That is backward-looking behaviour, and bottoms are only evident in the rear-view mirror; I’m more interested in looking for signs of recovery. Just like driving, one should scan all their mirrors regularily, but failure to concentrate on the road ahead can be fatal.

#127 JSS on 08.15.19 at 2:15 pm

#115 Sandra Davria on 08.15.19 at 11:56 am
I was told that Canadian bank stocks are supposed to be great long term investments with healthy growing dividends but my CIBC stock I bought last September at $124.85 today I looked and it is much lower at $98.20.

This is a deep 21% drop and in just 11 months. I never owned bank stocks before so is this normal for a big Canadian bank like CIBC? The dividend yield is currently 5.6% which is great but what if they actually start cutting it to 4.5% or less in comparison to other Canadian banks.

—————————————————————-

CIBC’s common stock payout ratio is around 49% based on EPS. They have a solid history of growing dividends over the years. Highly doubt they’d cut the dividend because there’s a bit of volatility in the markets lately. In fact, who knows – maybe another dividend increase is in line later this month for CIBC!

Also, if you’re going to buy individual equities, then you need to be brave enough to put up with volatility. Quit looking at the ticker all the time. Otherwise, sell the shares at current price to those who would love to lock in a 5.7% dividend and who would keep the shares forever and accrue its benefits. Then invest in a way that you can sleep well at night, and you’re comfortable with.

In many ways, equity investors should be happy to see a stock market drop like this. This is a sale, and smells of opportunity that 6-12 months down the line might be a distant memory (of good deals).

#128 CLAYTON on 08.15.19 at 2:26 pm

#4 Kelly on 08.14.19 at 4:22 pm
Dow Jones drops 800 points.

Time for another timely tweet from POTUS to make things right.

The market is so jumpy, it’s insane.

_____________________________________________

Strongly recommend that Kelly and others learn the difference between the DOW and the Market, I know I was very surprised to learn exactly how useless a measure the DOW is. Also serves as further proof that the talking heads in the MSM are just that.

#129 Shawn Allen on 08.15.19 at 2:54 pm

Would Warren Buffett be interested in SNC?

#117 MF on 08.15.19 at 12:24 pm
112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19

Total bloodbath with that stock. {SNC}

Maybe Warren Buffet will buy it like he did home capital?

MF

*********************************
Buffett might be interested in their remaining hunk of highway 407 if the price was right. He likes toll roads and businesses that are like toll roads. Many many years ago he actually owned a piece of the Ambassador Bridge.

As for SNC itself, I doubt he would even think of touching it. SNC is accused of deep and pervasive corruption, at least in the past. Home Capital had an issue with some mortgage brokers and suffered a run on the bank. Home Capital itself I don’t think had much in the way of accusations of corruption. Home capital was in a simple business that Berkshire has been involved in for decades. Sub-prime lending. (See Berkshire’s Clayton Homes division). Home Capital had some newer management in place by the time Buffett invested including a Board member that he trusted and knew.

Buffett has never invested in an engineering consulting firm. So why would he even think of starting with a very complex one that needs new management and stinks of corruption?

#130 PastThePeak on 08.15.19 at 3:01 pm

Expecting Central Banks lowering the overnight rates to save the day? It will prop up stock markets for a bit, but it will do little for the economy.

When CB’s lower interest rates to spur more “demand”, they are trying to get businesses & consumers to spend more than they would have. In the consumer case, it is trying to get them to purchase goods they wouldn’t have otherwise. And the reason they would purchase this is that lower interest makes it “affordable”. But it means taking on debt. With low rates, the debt simply continues to accumulate – it is affordable – but it is still there and starts to become a drag on growth

Lowering rates pulls demand forward from the future. But we have had ultra low rates for over 10 years. How much more demand can be brought forward? Expect less consumption growth from lowing rates now than in the past.

#131 Doug Wright on 08.15.19 at 3:45 pm

Central banks are no longer what central banks are mandated to do and always did in the past decades. They have turned into a socialist monetary schemer. They are in conflict of interest with governments and the whole indebted corporations, consumers.

If a central bank or central banks jacked up interest rates to 10% to say we want people to retire earlier and have more people with larger savings than that would be a conflict of interest too. Now that everyone is addicted to spending and debt at very low rates, it is perfectly fine. The old expressions still exist today, it rots from the head and follow the money.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.19 at 3:47 pm

@#117 MF
“Maybe Warren Buffet will buy it like he did home capital?”
++++
I dunno.
After the court case and the pending class actions suits…..
Wont be much left to buy.

#133 jess on 08.15.19 at 4:02 pm

lest one forgets lookback

Conservative Cabinet Staffers Granted Immunity from Testimony A PMO edict absolved political staffers from ever having to testify before parliamentary committees.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2010/05
/25/tories_block_staff_from_testifying_at_parliamentary_committees.html

more here :

https://thetyee.ca/Documents/2015/09/24/Harper%20ebook%20final.pdf

#134 Sharon Zeng on 08.15.19 at 4:29 pm

It is all a show and fake. When governments and banks can do all this now with money it is worthless. I don’t blame people for stopping to go to work because they are going to lose their money any way. It is all a bunch of lies.

#135 Bark on 08.15.19 at 4:42 pm

#91 Reading chicken entrails is about as effective as using technical analysis.

#136 Jenny Wang on 08.15.19 at 9:48 pm

#135 Bark, agreed. TA is dead information. What good is it to look at what’s already happened? Stock markets are a forward looking arena . TA has some use to desk / day traders whose impulse is to follow the volume driven impulses/knee jerk expectations of other desk traders on Level Two. At that it’s a vehicle for the bored, but only the balance sheet can indicate which way a companies fortune may turn.

You confuse the objectives of technical and fundamental analysis. One might be of value to stock-picking, Alpha-seeking cowboys while the other helps guide more diversified index investing. – Garth

#137 Katherine on 08.16.19 at 6:55 am

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