The Mission

Let’s forget Trump, China, the Fed and the markets for a day. We have bigger questions to deal with. Like: what if a powerful Artificial Intelligence program were used to analyze, say, a pathetic blog? What would it think?

Now that people and computers are connecting in ways never before dreamed of something called ‘sentiment analysis’ is all the rage. And because cheap hormones and fake thinking are what this site is all about, how could it not be a perfect subject?

That was the conclusion of techie phenom Keith Stoute. He’s the founder of Visual Antidote, an IT consulting outfit and software manufacturer with a global clientele. He’s also a blog dog who has just AI’d Greater Fool. Imagine. This is like NASA looking for life on a distant, weird, freaky dead star.

“I am an avid fan of your blog (the term ‘addict’ may be more adept) and also learning technologies related to Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning,” he writes. “I’ve decided to merge the two, and have had IBM’s Watson technology read one year’s worth of posts (including comments) and provide feedback on what it found.  Surprisingly it did not break!

“To do this I scraped all blogs (365) and comments (50,521) from August 1st 2018 to July 31, 2019, stored them in a database, and passed them to Watson one at a time (50,643 records – you’re busy).  Watson returned a measurement of what it analysed in terms of sentiment (overall positive, or negative?), sadness, joy, anger, fear and disgust.   The results are pretty fun.

“This type of technology – sentiment analysis – is one of many that is currently changing the way humans and computers can interact, and how our futures will look.  Big organisations like banks and telcos are already using it to monitor their customers interactions in call logs, chatbots and surveys.    There are implications, both positive and negative, for humanity, which makes me excited to learn and apply it (hopefully for good). I had a lot of fun compiling this and I hope your readers get some enjoyment from it too.”

Well, what follows is Stoute’s summary of Watson’s findings. By the way, this is the same program that won a million bucks beating everyone on Jeopardy. But today it’s parsing the steerage section. Put on your safety googles. Here we go.

For each blog and comment we received a score for overall sentiment (positive or negative), joy, anger, fear, disgust and sadness.  What we identified was that blogs with a ‘negative’ sentiment generally seemed to garner the most comments, which could be assumed to be a proxy for engagement.

However, it does seem that being ‘too negative’ drives comments down – see farthest left bubble.

It should also be noted that Guest-Bloggers in general seemed to be more positive than average, and they post on weekends, which might account for some of the lower comment counts on the positive end of the scale.  For example, guest bloggers account for 19 of the 50 most positive blogs, but only 6 of the 50 most negative.  The 10 most positive blogs had an average of 97 comments, while the 10 most negative blogs had an average of 130 comments.

The most commented-on blog ranked number 20 out of 365 total, as measured by fear (0.59797).

The real Insanity: the Comments Section:

The Greaterfool.ca has a lively comments section, filled with a wide variety of characters who opine on and off topic, often without decorum, taste or manners.  This makes for a compelling challenge for Watson. Luckily we did not break it with the insanity it had to endure!   Sadly, the most prolific commenter has a pseudonym I will not repeat on my blog, but pertains to something that can occupy a crowded elevator you do not want to be in (how’s that for a Jeopardy question?).

Below is a chart of the top 10 most prolific commenters.

Click to enlarge

If you can believe it, “Mr. Elevator” posted 1,577 comments in 12 months, or an average of 4.3 comments every day.  This is just over double  the amount of the 3rd most prolific commenter.

The regular contributer ‘For those about to Flop’ would have been in the top 10 had he posted consistently under one name, but seems to flop back and forth between his long formal name (463 comments) and ‘flop’ (183 comments). So he is aptly named.

Speaking of Flop, who likes to post regularly about ‘how much’, let’s rank our top comments as evaluated by IBM’s Watson.

Just a brief note about ranking: Watson returns a value between -1 and 1 as a measure of a sentiment or emotion.  So an anger value of 0.9 means you are really angry, and -0.9 means you are not angry AT ALL.

Top Positive Comment
“Thank you so much for your excellent answer to my question! I really enjoy your writing and I look forward to every post. Kind of you to share your knowledge with us. (The pictures are cool too!)” – Ian “Blog Dog”, Nov 26, 2018. Sentiment rank: 0.999947

Top Negative Comment
“Yet another pic of a stupid canine failing the IQ test. (Too bad dog owners are equally of lower intelligence, or they could save their poor dumb puppies from their own stupidity.)” – Felix, Sep 23 2018. Sentiment rank: -0.998314

Top Joyful Comment
“Thank you, Garth. Such wonderful stories. Happy New Year to you and your family.” – Chris, Dec 30 2018.  Joy Rank: 0.991983.

Top Angry Comment
“Enjoy life don’t, worry about the small shit. Gamble bitches.” – Smoking Man, Apr 4 2019. Anger rank: 0.935145

We knew SM would appear here somewhere. Frankly, this does not strike me as all that angry, I like rank #10 as the most angry:

“If the lazy parasites communist CONservatives want t No B-20 that is fine but they should DEMAND the shut down of CMHC. They always hate government interference but since it helps those useless communists they dont say boo about CMHC. Proving CONservatives are nothing but CON artists and SHYSTERS who hate the free market but love communism for the rich.” – Communist CONservatives, May 14, 2019. Anger rank: 0.853132

Top Disgust Comment
“Progressives and their “ideals” sure are revolting and disgusting.” – Classical Liberal Millennial, May 5, 2019. Disgust rank: 0.91043

Top Fear Comment
“oh boy I fear for the comments section today. I’m out.” – yorkville renter, Feb 28 2019. Fear rank: 0.947706

Top Sad Comment
“My Dad did the same as Nance:( He won’t tell me but at 88 I’m sure he’s broke now. Just CPP and OAS to live on. Sad AF!” – Honey Dripper, Sep 13 2019. Sadness rank: 0.965764

How we did it:

IBM Watson is “IBM’s suite of enterprise-ready AI services, applications, and tooling.” The area of AI we are using is known as Natural Language Processing and Sentiment Analysis. Basically you give a computer system some phrases in a human language like English, and it will return its interpretation of some aspects of it, such as:

  • Overall sentiment – is it positive or negative?
  • Emotions – what emotions are involved, and how strong are they?
  • Entities – what are the topics or categories being discussed?

Organizations use this to process large volumes of data to look for specific trends.  For example, a call centre at a bank could transcribe call logs and monitor realtime if customers are becoming emotional in one direction or another, or companies can analyze huge volumes of their customer survey results for meaningful insights into how their customers or market is feeling.

To get all this data we built a web scraping tool using Python to retrieve publicly available content from the Greater Fool blog. From there we passed it to Watson’s API and recorded the results in a database for further analysis. From there we did further analysis with SQL, Python and Excel.

We ran our approximately 56,000 records against Watson without tweaking or tailoring Watson to understand the culture, sarcasm or irony prevalent on the Greater Fool blog.   For example, it deemed this post as overwhemingly happy and positive!

“Happy Housing Crash Everyone! The days of SHYSTER lies are over. I can’t wait for a uber type realtor. Could we see $1000-$5000 to sell a home?  Happy Housing Crash Everyone!:-)”

It reads like a biblical pestilence is being lifted… how could that not be happy?  To be fair Happy Housingcrash Everyone’s average sentiment across 21 comments was negative.

110 comments ↓

#1 Brandon on 08.02.19 at 3:46 pm

“Honey Dripper, Sep 13 2019. Sadness rank: 0.965764”

Watson can see the future.

#2 infrequent on 08.02.19 at 3:48 pm

“communism for the rich”

That.. is.. hilarious.

#3 Kathy on 08.02.19 at 4:02 pm

Wow, that’s crazy! Always learning on your blog, thanks Garth.

#4 Howard on 08.02.19 at 4:03 pm

Vancouver July stats out. Sales up yoy, prices down.

https://www.rebgv.org/market-watch/monthly-market-report/july-2019.html

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $995,200. This represents a 9.4 per cent decrease over July 2018 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.

Sales of detached homes in July 2019 reached 841, a 32 per cent increase from the 637 detached sales recorded in July 2018. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,417,000. This represents a 10.5 per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.5 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,243 in July 2019, a 15.2 per cent increase compared to the 1,079 sales in July 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $653,200. This represents an 8.8 per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.

Attached home sales in July 2019 totalled 473, a 33.6 per cent increase compared to the 354 sales in July 2018. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $770,000. This represents a nine per cent decrease from July 2018, and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to June 2019.

#5 n1tro on 08.02.19 at 4:18 pm

Hey Keith,

Does Watson think I’m crazy? Need to get some answers. Thanks.

#6 Smartalox on 08.02.19 at 4:21 pm

It would seem that analyses like these place focus on the extremes of sentiment (posts that are happiest / saddest, nicest / meanest, etc.) from a relatively small number of posters.

Much more interested in seeing reflections of the ‘majority’ sentiments (the centre of mass of the distribution) and how they’ve changed over time.

The change in sentiment of some individual posters, over time might be worth a laugh as well.

But otherwise, scary technology. Easy to see this tech let loose on the email servers of corporations, in lieu of formal employee surveys. (Yikes!)

#7 El presidente on 08.02.19 at 4:25 pm

Business must be slow…. sheesh…….. analyse my tweets……….me me me

I love the smell of a shorted market… the greatest money making gig I’ve ever had… the Russian mob loans will be paid back in a jiffy

#8 dakkie on 08.02.19 at 4:25 pm

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July Update: Year-Over-Year Declines Spread to Seattle

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-july-update-year-over-year-declines-spread-to-seattle/

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.19 at 4:26 pm

The most Prolific poster….
Who knew I was an honorary member of the Babylon Society.

The scary version?
My sister can out talk even me……..and she lives within an hour of Lunenburg……. :)

#10 Smoking Man on 08.02.19 at 4:40 pm

Nice Job Keith Stoute.

I also do Python TSql and Vba.
I built a similar system to Trade Forex.

Using the wife as the Ginny pig. She’s up 549,978.00 since mar 19th.
44 trades 3 losers. biggest lose 5gs. Biggest win 105k. Jun 19 to Jun 20.

I love to share the model but it would only screw up the algo if everyone trading same strategy..

All I can say to kids…Learn to Code’ you will never worry about money again..

Well done Keith..

#11 tccontrarian on 08.02.19 at 4:54 pm

Most interesting post! Something to ponder about, for sure. I see that I need to be more careful how I post here. I’ll try to be more positive, yet honest about my views (and maybe change my name to ElevatorShaft?)

Now, fast-forward to Dec. 2021 and run AI to assess the most accurate market prediction from 2019.

TCC says:
1. +50% losses for major markets (SP500).
2. +60% losses for Nasdaz
3. Oil @ +$75US per barrel
4. CAD @ 85 US
5. Gold will make a serious run to $2,000/oz
6. Inflation fears elevated

tcc

#12 Chris on 08.02.19 at 4:54 pm

Yay! I’m pretty sure that I wrote the Top Joyful Comment! My day is complete. Thanks again for all of the useful information over the years, Garth.

#13 Vision on 08.02.19 at 5:05 pm

Boring. Don’t care for this kind of analysis.

#14 Frank Steefle on 08.02.19 at 5:26 pm

Come on, you are telling me that governments, businesses, corporations, central banks and anyone else that has been spying on us for decades does not know what pisses us off and what we are glad to see.

They know everything about us and that is why so many Canadians and others around the world are so much in debt and drank the koolaid. They know most of us are lazy, financially illiterate and gullible. There is no other reason someone would be in debt for a home $1 million.

#15 Howard on 08.02.19 at 5:29 pm

But who typed the most WORDS? I’m thinking Nonplused or IHCT. Though I guess it’s difficult or even impossible to quantify original content. One can’t simply count the number of words under a screen name as that would frequently include copy/paste of previous posts to which one is responding. And then you’d also have to scrub out copy/paste of external articles.

#16 Keith Stoute on 08.02.19 at 5:33 pm

For those interested you can find ‘top 50’ comments here.

Click tabs at the bottom to see different emotions ranked.

#17 D.D. Corkum on 08.02.19 at 5:40 pm

#13 Vision on 08.02.19 at 5:05 pm

Boring. Don’t care for this kind of analysis.

——

I hope you are kidding. If you don’t realize the significance of algorithms being used like this then you lack what your name is.

#18 baloney Sandwitch on 08.02.19 at 5:44 pm

Sad that watson was not astute enough to highlight yours truly, who purveyed some of the most insightful comments over the years. No wonder IBM’s stock sucks, google would have done better.

#19 Alex on 08.02.19 at 5:44 pm

This is really interesting. Thank you for posting this. One thing that I would be interested in seeing is a rating of how the comment relates to the blog post. Some people who comment here go off in directions that have little to do with the topic of the blog and right from the get go. As well, perhaps it would also be interesting to see how positive or negative the off topic comment was.

#20 Shawn Allen on 08.02.19 at 5:47 pm

I’m number four…

You’re Welcome…

#21 Dolce Vita on 08.02.19 at 6:02 pm

SO, scrolling challenged here, I click on the “Stoute’s summary” link, read the article there and whereupon I scroll down and there it is AGAIN, replicated by Garth.

WTF Garth, why the link if you replicate the juicy bits of the article right after? What’s up with that?

Sadness rank: -0.568741.

IS IT ME OR IS OUR BRILLIANT AI WATSON (and its programmers) CHALLENGED WHEN IT COMES TO DOING THIS WITH NUMBERS:

rounding.
rounding.
rounding.
rounding.

Watson (and its programmers) need to revisit 4th Grade.

Some AI that is.

It can’t even round like a 4th Grader.

Watson Sadness rank, dismay and rounding embarrassment: -0.999999

OR

-1.0

————————————

Ciao d’Italia…where, we can still count by hand.

PS:

400 of my 600 posts were defending my home town of Pordenone, Italia…the other 200…revealing yet another “numbers challenged” outfit:

StatCan

that incidentally also uses Software to make it ridiculous calculations from raw or unadjusted data.

Buonanotte, you to Watson…you poor thing you.

#22 SimplyPut7 on 08.02.19 at 6:08 pm

If your top commenters are happiest when they are complaining, can their statements really be classified as negative comments?

#23 Felix on 08.02.19 at 6:15 pm

It’s hard to find anything positive to say about dogs, sorry, that’s just the truth.

Meow.

#24 TrumpIsLeavingSoon on 08.02.19 at 6:29 pm

Looks like Watson and AI have a long way to go.

How many millions did it cost to develop???? Better go back to the drawing board.

This should make Elon Musk sleep better at night if this is the type of AI that is out there.

Simplistic and useless.

#25 Millennial Realist on 08.02.19 at 6:29 pm

Hmm.

Awkward. But it needs to be said:

“Mr. Elevator”

Get.

A.

Life.

#26 Dolce Vita on 08.02.19 at 6:30 pm

NO WORRIES about Watson.

Just because the damn thing is good at Jeopardy does not mean it knows anything about Anger, Disgust, Fear, Sadness (or Embarrassment on its own about its rounding skill).

Having said that and taught MIS there is something to this field of study worth pursuing besides pastiche analysis.

Back in 2007, Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee authored this business case:

Prediction Markets at Google

“Google’s internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company.”

I was astonished at how accurate and precise their predictive software was. And that was 12 years ago. Imagine what they can do now.

Mind you, nothing new.

Researched and explained back in the 19th C. by the 2 “von” Economists: Hayek and Mises.

Thus, there is hope for Watson…if not anticipation.

#27 Dave on 08.02.19 at 6:33 pm

Lately the posts are boring….I come here to read about real crashes and sad Realtors.

#28 Phylis on 08.02.19 at 6:33 pm

Note that Watson does not know what he is missing. Ie deletes and posts that never saw the light of day. So the results are biased. Fun but biased. Now was this a positive or negatively sentimented comment? It might have negative words, but is it really negative. Watson, how smart are you?

#29 What's in a name on 08.02.19 at 6:33 pm

In Dutch, “Stoute Keith” translates into “Naughty Keith”.

#30 TurnerNation on 08.02.19 at 6:42 pm

Parents, don’t let your kids become Blog Dogs :)

The top spot for Most Deleted?

For the VET.TO touts I started building small position today awaiting confirmation.

#31 Dolce Vita on 08.02.19 at 6:42 pm

#25 Millennial Realist

Says he from his parents basement.

#32 n1tro on 08.02.19 at 6:43 pm

Happy happy go lucky sunshine rainbows fuzzy bunnies apple pie heart we are the world

Got to crack the top 10 somehow…

#33 Russ on 08.02.19 at 6:44 pm

Congratulations Felix!
Well done, and always bang on the money.

And Keith,
Jess should have been a throw-out. She doesn’t post a comment but merely a bunch of dumb “news” articles dredged from the Internet.
It’s all garbage content really. I cannot recall one opinion from her.
#Sad

Watson might need a bit o’ optimizing…

Cheers, R

#34 Dolce Vita on 08.02.19 at 6:49 pm

#29 What’s in a name

Well.

FYI.

Dutch translates to Klingon when listened to by the Italian ear.

Jol yIchu’.

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 08.02.19 at 6:56 pm

…The Greaterfool.ca has a lively comments section, filled with a wide variety of characters who opine on and off topic, often without decorum, taste or manners….

>Uncannily accurate.

>Isn’t this inhumane treatment for IBM’s Watson?

#36 akashic record on 08.02.19 at 7:09 pm

AI has not evolved much at all.

Classical content analysis – invented by linguists at a British university for MI6 to figure out if the latest invention, RADAR had been effective against Hitler’s submarines – was way more interesting and useful.

It proved not only that RADAR worked, but also that the creators of communication can never fully control the message, which always contains information that they never intended to include, or even wanted to hide.

Watson could learn a lot from 3-letter agencies, which computerized content analysis decades ago, extending the sources to ingest even to fictions.

The trick from the very beginning, was to intelligently define what to look for.

IBM’s Watson obviously still has no clue on its own.

#37 TRUMP on 08.02.19 at 7:14 pm

HERE WE GO AGAIN………..

Taking advice from a transvestite in thongs, with a wife-beater t-shirt 1 size too small, wearing no bra, a rasta wig, and pink hi-heels.

If only are elders knew what we were doing to ourselves.

HAPPY LONG WEEKEND CANADA!!!!!!!!

#38 akashic record on 08.02.19 at 7:22 pm

It’s hilarious that IBM’s Watson has shaky hands censoring red pencil.

It hides from the rest of the world the most inconvenient part of crowdedlevator, with some misguided artificial, but not intelligent consideration, that only a machine would understand.

#39 Tyberius on 08.02.19 at 7:26 pm

LOL…

Doug Rowat got the 11th most “Angriest” comment!

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/06/01/tokyo-rose/

Time for peer review maybe?? :)

#40 Nonplused on 08.02.19 at 7:27 pm

Wait, I didn’t make the top ten?? I think there is something wrong with Watson.

#15 Howard

I type all my own posts but not many of the thoughts are original. My thoughts, like most people, are a combination of other thinkers thrown in with a bit of original thought and organization. People like Doug Casey, Nicholas Taleb, Andrew Watts, Mike “Mish” Sheldock, Bill Bonner, Scott Adams, Jordan Peterson, Carl Sagan, Richard Dawkins, Patrick Moore, Gail Tverberg, Chris Martenson, and of course Garth to name a few. I read a lot. And mostly watch lectures or documentaries on YouTube because I can barely stand what passes for TV or movies these days. Uhg. Another indestructible superhero saves the world from invading space creatures using special effects. No thanks.

I don’t agree with everything anyone says, for example if you fully agreed with everything Chris Martenson says you’d jump off a bridge but his arguments about the long range implications of exponential growth are compelling. Of course he makes the Malthusian mistake of ignoring the effect of technological progress on our ability to sustain growth, but still he is correct that certain things like population cannot increase exponentially forever. We’d run out of places to stand. He is probably also correct that it won’t be physically possible to double energy production in the future relying on fossil fuels. But again he ignores the potential of Gen IV nuclear. There are interesting developments occurring in this sector. And maybe they’ll get fusion to work on day. People are working on it.

I don’t often cite sources because what you are getting is a mishmash of the parts I liked best as best as I understood them combined with any original ideas I have. But most people don’t have very many original thoughts in the course of a lifetime. Even Garth’s ideas about things like a balanced portfolio have been around forever. What Garth does best is separate the good ideas from the bad and then drill it into our skulls. But you have to be pretty smart to do that. Most people wouldn’t recognize a good idea if it snuck up and bit them in the rear. Remember, half the people are below average intelligence, and that is particularly frightening when you consider the intelligence of the average person.

And yes it is true my posts are often long. It takes a lot of time to be brief. As Mark Twain once wrote, “I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”

#41 NoName on 08.02.19 at 7:28 pm

@ DV

Now that you mention prediction and accuracy, Amazon’s accuracy in product suggestion 3-5%, Netflix 95%+, imagine that.

#42 ShawnG in TO on 08.02.19 at 7:40 pm

i think Brian Ripley’s comments are the scariest

where’s HHCE? i miss him

sad

#43 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 08.02.19 at 7:49 pm

I come here to read Garth’s daily blog first, but I also enjoy reading Nonplussed’s comments along with MF’s.

I kinda miss SCM; I wish (s)he wasn’t banned.

One prediction: we will have the most comments in today’s post.

RV signing off.

#44 Stylite on 08.02.19 at 7:51 pm

I’ve been lurking on greaterfool for a while now, its about time I say something. (Top Useless Comment)

#45 Elementary, Watson on 08.02.19 at 7:52 pm

Top Disgust Comment: Has the word disgusting.
Top Fear Comment: Has the word fear.
Top Sad Comment: Has the word sad.
Top Angry Comment: Has the words smoking man.

#46 Flop... on 08.02.19 at 7:54 pm

Where was this dude during my Pink Snow Project?

I was typing so much I had no skin left on my fingertips…

M45BC

#47 Yanniel on 08.02.19 at 7:59 pm

Refreshing and interesting.

#48 Flop... on 08.02.19 at 8:09 pm

For the record I posted as “For those about to flop…” up until “After the house sold ” wrote a hit post about my wife and I.

I took a break and reflected on if I wanted to continue to contribute, and when I decided I was ready to enter the cesspool again I knew I wanted a fresh chapter and decided just to call myself what most people were already calling me.

Only switched over once, and I don’t see any reason to change again…

M45BC

#49 Keith Stoute on 08.02.19 at 8:16 pm

#15 Howard on 08.02.19 at 5:29 pm
But who typed the most WORDS?
———————-
These are ranked here (most and longest posts).

It will not tell you who actually ‘typed’ vs. copy and paste, but it will tell you who needs an editor.

#45 Elementary, Watson on 08.02.19 at 7:52 pm

You are on to something. The score is a confidence level, so comments that use the keyword in question rank highest. The ‘intelligence is reflected further down the rankings when it has to use something more subtle to discern intent.

And clearly IBM is on to Smoking Man.

#50 Win not Lose on 08.02.19 at 8:17 pm

Smokey
only # 3.
Is the California sun impacting your brain cells?
Or did you have too many “removals?”
Interesting question “who had the most Post removed by author?”

#51 mark on 08.02.19 at 8:17 pm

Imagine what it might look like if it got its hands on all the deleted comments.

#52 Matt on 08.02.19 at 8:27 pm

Happy housing crash guy has been quiet. Mom must have cut off the internet in the basement.

#53 Yuus bin Haad on 08.02.19 at 8:30 pm

I’ll take “Stupid Robot Tricks” for 800, Alex.

#54 MF on 08.02.19 at 9:14 pm

Pretty cool analysis.

I was one spot away from a top 10 most frequent commenter.

Even Surrounded by some GF royalty! Sweet. Surrounded by Don, NoName and….uh….umm……not 1st.

Never mind I guess lol.

MF

#55 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 08.02.19 at 9:23 pm

100 DAYS WITHOUT A LOSS!!!!!!!!!!

GO MAKE BELIEVES GO!!!!!

TORONTO IS #1!

MOST POSITIVE COMMENT EVERRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!

#56 DON on 08.02.19 at 9:31 pm

#25 Millennial Realist on 08.02.19 at 6:29 pm

Hmm.

Awkward. But it needs to be said:

“Mr. Elevator”

Get.

A.

Life.
**************
Or you could listen and benefit from his knowledge and experiences.

#57 Doug t on 08.02.19 at 9:38 pm

The world is going to end – some day
The rich will be burned at the stake
Greed kills
WWIII will end the planet
Capitalism will kill the human race
AI will be the end of our existence
Etc etc

#58 Paul on 08.02.19 at 9:45 pm

I’ll have to come back and read this a few times.

In solidarity with Nonplussed, I’m shocked that he did not make some kind of list.

“Prolific” – intellectually productive. Give the man his due.

We finally made it to Lunenburg yesterday.

Cheers,

Paul

#59 Peter on 08.02.19 at 10:15 pm

“Top Angry Comment
“Enjoy life don’t, worry about the small shit. Gamble bitches.” – Smoking Man, Apr 4 2019. Anger rank: 0.935145”

This comment was only given the top angry spot because a comma was mistakenly put between “don’t” and “worry”.

I think this AI stuff has a long way to go.

#60 Scully on 08.02.19 at 10:17 pm

Meh. I’d rather go on a date with Smoking Man than learn code and algorithms. ;)

#61 Ronaldo on 08.02.19 at 10:26 pm

#52 Matt on 08.02.19 at 8:27 pm
Happy housing crash guy has been quiet. Mom must have cut off the internet in the basement.
—————————————————————-
He’s still here Matt. He posts under another name on here and a well known one at that. Can u guess which?

#62 Chris on 08.02.19 at 10:26 pm

Also, the comment “first” was mentioned 54000 times.

#63 Ronaldo on 08.02.19 at 10:31 pm

Here’s one for you Crowded. Which one is you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=W2JI0k9HuZk

#64 Alien grammar on 08.02.19 at 10:44 pm

#59 Peter on 08.02.19 at 10:15 pm

“Top Angry Comment
“Enjoy life don’t, worry about the small shit. Gamble bitches.” – Smoking Man, Apr 4 2019. Anger rank: 0.935145”

This comment was only given the top angry spot because a comma was mistakenly put between “don’t” and “worry”.

I think this AI stuff has a long way to go.
.
……..

bingo……..spellin don’t matter… punctuation does!

#65 Renter's Revenge! on 08.02.19 at 10:45 pm

If you say “AI will be the end of our existence”, does Watson count that as a positive comment or a negative comment?

#66 BC Renovator on 08.02.19 at 10:50 pm

What about-

most hyped on Real Estate: Upa Upa Dude! lol

and lets not forget about WE ALL GONNA DIE!- Trumpocalypse Guy

Steerage is kinda funny/annoying. I scroll for the links and Turner come backs.

#67 Classical Liberal Millennial on 08.02.19 at 10:50 pm

Well for the amount of comments I make (which are few) I’m surprised and amused I made a “top” comment. Hahaha
I stand by it though.
Fascinating post today, Garth!

#68 Doug t on 08.02.19 at 11:07 pm

The world will learn to love
The rich will share their wealth
People will have empathy
War will end
Sharism will happen
AI will give life hope
Etc etc

#69 short horses on 08.02.19 at 11:08 pm

This was a really fantastic enlightening post.

Among other things, I learned (by looking it up) that a term favoured by a certain blog dog is not a racist dogwhistle; rather, it’s etymology was deemed by Merriam-Webster to more likely derive from the German Scheisser [Scheißer]. Even if it’s in ALL CAPS.

#70 BlorgDorg on 08.02.19 at 11:34 pm

Thanks for doing this and sharing, Keith.

I work with machine learning as well myself (hand-rolled mostly, haven’t used Watson or Amazon’s service yet). I had considered doing sentiment analysis on the GreaterFool corpus as well — looks like you beat me to it.

A different axis that I’m interested is sentiment analysis over time: Garth recently mentioned that the blog is 11 years old; I would love to see how sentiment has changed during various economic periods / events (eg. Interest rate changes, pre/post-B20, Trumpian bumps & dumps, etc).

Unfortunately Garth has been fairly consistent over the last decade (which is boring for data science), and as you’ve already realized, the quality of blog comments for ML is pretty low and the quantity of data is pretty high.

But picking infinitesimally small needles from enormous haystacks is what computers are good at, and Moore’s Law seems to continue unabated. Word to those here who like to dump on AI: it’s only a matter of time until this technology is powerful and ubiquitous enough to cause real problems for humanity.

It’s already happening. Look up “deepfakes” if you don’t believe me.

#71 NoName on 08.02.19 at 11:40 pm

we all heard this joke

A programmer is going to the grocery store and his wife tells him, “Buy a gallon of milk, and if there are eggs, buy a dozen.”

So the programmer goes, buys everything, and drives back to his house. Upon arrival, his wife angrily asks him, “Why did you get 13 gallons of milk?” The programmer says, “There were eggs!”

and for that dude from yesterday @#93 that is missing a food p()rn, worry not, just stick around, i got your back.

(click on a link only if you have eyes facing forward and pointy teeth, and/or you like to get rid of greenhouse gases contributors.) WIN WIN, isn’t that great. $BYND beyond the meat i guess would be hashtag.

https://imgur.com/a/T42n8q0

and interesting read.
https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2019/7/24/beyond-ridiculous

#72 hmm on 08.02.19 at 11:55 pm

so the losers on here are actually the winners lol

#73 Ruane on 08.02.19 at 11:57 pm

That is SO COOL! And hilarious. Love it!

#74 DMER on 08.03.19 at 12:05 am

…I honestly just don’t what to say.

#75 ohcrappers on 08.03.19 at 12:33 am

I thought we were supposed to use a unique name every time! doh!

#76 Smoking Man on 08.03.19 at 12:46 am

#60 Scully on 08.02.19 at 10:17 pm

Meh. I’d rather go on a date with Smoking Man than learn code and algorithms. ;)
……
Sorry Scully. I’m taken. The bitch got me when I was 19 and she was 16.

Dont know hiw she did it. But she owns me. Thanks for the offer.

#77 Smoking Man on 08.03.19 at 12:56 am

Got the ear buds on trying to make sence of this song after a Friday night no holds bard raid the barr moment.

https://youtu.be/sh7BZf7D5Bw

Cute Q

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.19 at 1:05 am

Without the deleted comments, this so called analysis is useless.
Garth, how much did you pay this phony guy?

#79 Nonplused on 08.03.19 at 1:05 am

#49 Keith Stoute

Well, I appear prominently in “length of post”. I assume those are letters because there is no way I am typing 6000 words, but still a good measure. I am also “Flat Earth Society” and “Nobel Laureate”, whom I notice are also verbose. I’ve used many handles over the years depending on the character I thought was appropriate including “Economystic” (which was a hit, but socialism doesn’t come up much anymore so he’s been retired) and some others but I kind of dropped them when the topic they were meant to address sort of went away.

#58 Paul

Thanks for the support, but I am not sure these are lists one hopes to be on! :-)

#80 Smoking Man on 08.03.19 at 1:09 am

The song T2 and Climate Barbie will be hooked on come November.

https://youtu.be/8SbUC-UaAxE

Globalist teet sucker’s you lose.

#81 Nonplused on 08.03.19 at 1:17 am

PS probably my most popular comment of all time was posted under “Interstellar Space Signal” or something like that where I pretended to be Beelzebub responding from the heavens to prayers from the Federal Reserve circa 2008. It was done entirely tongue in cheek, but people liked it.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.19 at 1:42 am

#59 Peter on 08.02.19 at 10:15 pm
“Top Angry Comment
“Enjoy life don’t, worry about the small shit. Gamble bitches.” – Smoking Man, Apr 4 2019. Anger rank: 0.935145”

This comment was only given the top angry spot because a comma was mistakenly put between “don’t” and “worry”.

I think this AI stuff has a long way to go.
————-
Agree.
This whole exercise is a waste of tax payers money.
Without the deleted and banned comments it’s useless.

#83 Lizard Man on 08.03.19 at 3:16 am

I’m reminded of the Seinfeld theme, “a show about nothing”. Mr. Stout might make a decent civil servant, spending the day producing nothing of value , expecting compensation. I’d suggest a more intellectual pursuit that sheds less for on human behaviour as wiped from the bowels of technology, Predictive Linguistics, which is algorithms that reform sentences out of the billions of most popular words used across the internet in a specific timeframe. It’s like having a conversation with everybody, simultaneously.

Aside from that, buy the dip.

#84 Howard on 08.03.19 at 3:27 am

#40 Nonplused on 08.02.19 at 7:27 pm

By “original”, I simply meant, not copy/paste from an external site or a previous post. Nothing wrong with doing that of course (I copy content from external articles here all the time).

#85 Leo Trollstoy on 08.03.19 at 6:46 am

Analytics is the horoscope of the inter webz

#86 Shawn on 08.03.19 at 7:58 am

The 10-2 Canadian yield curve is inverted (US is not). The BOC needs to cut 50 bps in total to fix it.

BOC overnight rate 1.75%

BOC 10-year yield 1.38%

Rate cuts coming

#87 dharma bum on 08.03.19 at 8:05 am

“The results are pretty fun.” – Keith Stoute
——————————————————————–

Not.

#88 Shawn on 08.03.19 at 8:08 am

At present the entire Canadian yield curve is below the BOC overnight rate of 1.75%.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

#89 dharma bum on 08.03.19 at 8:10 am

For those interested you can find ‘top 50’ comments here.
——————————————————————–

Top 50 Ass Kissers, you mean.

#90 maxx on 08.03.19 at 8:26 am

@ #13

I find it truly fascinating as you can observe front-line employee behaviour (as well as other physical cues) of all manner of business and extrapolate what’s going on behind the scenes in the world of AI. Entertaining at minimum.

Never-ending attempts to mess with your head in order to get to your wallet. I see it as entertainment – kind of like a game of spy vs. spy. There are a gazillion ways to feed phony data back to commerce in its effort to try to “figure us out”.

It. Is. Owed. Nothing.

Always assume business is watching you and that you can go a very long way to figuring IT out. Sort of.

Follow the money followers.

#91 maxx on 08.03.19 at 9:20 am

@ #44

That was actually funny. You fit right in!

#92 Trumpocalypse2019 on 08.03.19 at 9:28 am

I am not at the top of any of these lists, because I am telling the truth, not being negative or fearful.

I am trying to help you all prepare for what is imminent.

Consider:

China and USA in standoff

USA revokes nuclear deal with Russia

Trump in his bunker fearing impeachment

Global climate catastrophe unraveling in real time.

– Greenland has 60% of its ice surface melting right now. More melted in one day than ever before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/extreme-ice-melt-in-greenland-threatens-coastal-communities-scientists-warn.html

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/greenland-ice-melt-climate-change-warming-arctic

Sea level rises coming, just wait and see. But not too long.

A global disaster that is totally unprecedented is racing towards you.

PREPARE.

#93 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.03.19 at 9:52 am

All the money spent on Watson was wasted.

Proof?

None of my posts were top 50 in any category. Obviously this can’t be the case ergo Watson is a pile of electronic trash.

#94 jess on 08.03.19 at 10:18 am

Can AI detect sarcasm?
——————————————
“internet highwayman”

Falder, brought up in Cheshire, had excelled at school and emerged from Cambridge University with a master’s degree and PhD before becoming a lecturer at Birmingham University. One former tutor described him as “one of the finest students” whose work had “international impact”. He had dynamic social magnetism, was extremely talented and was the life and soul of the party, the court had heard.

…. The ongoing child abuse inquiry in Rotherham, for example, in which there are 1,510 victims and 110 suspects, employs 144 officers. In February, Paul Williamson, the NCA’s senior officer in the investigation, said he needed 100 more.

Owens to name her biggest success, she picked the case of a Birmingham internet sadist jailed in February for torturing and blackmailing 300 women across the world, without ever meeting a single one.

virtual communities” of abusers on the dark web, distributing images on so-called “hurtcore” websites, where images of violent sexual and physical abuse are shared, and where he had a membership level of “rapist”.

He forced one victim to film herself licking toilet seats, a used tampon and eating dog food; another into eating his faeces and drinking urine. He also encouraged the rape of a young child, the court had heard. He had set up hidden cameras in publicly accessible toilets and at his parents’ home, catching unsuspecting victims on film then blackmailing them and trading images online with others.

#95 Flop... on 08.03.19 at 10:59 am

Well since Keith mentioned how I like to support “How Much” I guess it’s as good as any reason for me to do one of my five posts for the year where I’m actually on topic.

Won’t try to break the record for the most words typed/pasted.

Here is a solid ten- pack.

Have at it…

M45BC

These 10 Visualizations Put Global Trade Into Perspective.

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-trade-explained-in-10-visualizations

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.19 at 11:01 am

@#25 Millennial Surrealist
“Get a life”
+++++

But who would you vicariously fantasize about ?

#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.19 at 11:06 am

Two adages are poignant here:
On the Internet no one knows that you’re a dog.
In vino veritas.
Too many posters hide behind anonymity and/or are writing under the influence.
Many of those are probably deleted.
Garth is riding a tight ship.
Analyze that, Watson.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.03.19 at 11:25 am

Watson predicts future comment:
Top Sad Comment
“My Dad did the same as Nance:( He won’t tell me but at 88 I’m sure he’s broke now. Just CPP and OAS to live on. Sad AF!” – Honey Dripper, Sep 13 2019. Sadness rank: 0.965764

#99 Flop... on 08.03.19 at 11:27 am

#33 Russ on 08.02.19 at 6:44 pm
Congratulations Felix!
Well done, and always bang on the money.

And Keith,
Jess should have been a throw-out. She doesn’t post a comment but merely a bunch of dumb “news” articles dredged from the Internet.
It’s all garbage content really. I cannot recall one opinion from her.
#Sad

//////////////////

#94 jess on 08.03.19 at 10:18 am

“He forced one victim to film herself licking toilet seats, a used tampon and eating dog food; another into eating his faeces and drinking urine. He also encouraged the rape of a young child, the court had heard. He had set up hidden cameras in publicly accessible toilets and at his parents’ home, catching unsuspecting victims on film then blackmailing them and trading images online with others.”

//////////////////

Russ, it looks like Jess was listening.

Gonna struggle to acquire a hunger for breakfast now…

M45BC

#100 IHCTD9 on 08.03.19 at 12:47 pm

Cool analysis!

Interesting as the #2 most prolific commenter that I do not make the top 50 most joyful, angry, disgusted, positive, or negative comments – at all – zero. The only two places I show up was #2 for sad comment (condolences to WUL on the passing of his wife), and #37 for fear comment (I posted a modified “there was an old man with a beard” limerick :) ).

I guess I must be posting a whole lot of real boring stuff!

#101 expat on 08.03.19 at 12:48 pm

The machine world will win, humanity will be enslaved.

And no one will notice except when the SKYNET drones hover over their houses.

All because they gave away their thoughts, feelings, and identity to social media.
The selective cull begins.

I can hear it now

“But nobody told us”

#102 Shawn Allen on 08.03.19 at 12:53 pm

Bank of Canada target Rate 1.75%

#88 Shawn on 08.03.19 at 8:08 am
At present the entire Canadian yield curve is below the BOC overnight rate of 1.75%.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

**********************************
That is interesting…

By the way, who pays and who is collecting that 1.75% overnight rate? And how many dollars?

My understanding is that the Bank of Canada pays that amount to the banks for their positive deposits at Bank of Canada.

I believe they would also lend to the banks at that rate but that that rarely happens.

I understand that the banks are encouraged to and do lend to each other at the 1.75% rate on the basis that it is the same they can get at BOC or theoretically borrow from BOC.

Have the Canadian Banks started to leave more cash on deposit at Bank of Canada given this rate?

Certainly banks should not now want to bother holding any federal government bonds since they pay less than Bank of Canada overnight rate?

Perhaps other have better knowledge?

Institutions hold government bonds because they are risk-free, not to collect interest. You have some difficulty grasping bonds, it appears. Nobody buys them for cash flow. – Garth

#103 Shawn Allen on 08.03.19 at 1:06 pm

Extremely Low Bond Yields and Implications

So we seem to be back at low bond yields. Entire German curve is negative. The rise in yields of 2018 has fissled out like all the other seeming increases the past quite a few years.

U.S. ten year = 1.9%, 30 year 2.4%

Is one implication that the rich are lending money to governments at near-zero rates?

In effect the rich are sharing their wealth by lending it to government for almost no (in some cases negative) return even before inflation.

Chinese government is lending vast amounts to the U.S. for near-zero return. Other governments too.

Pension funds lending to government at near-zero.

Insurance companies lending to government at near-zero.

Mutual funds adn ETFs and therefore the entire investor community lending to government at near-zero rates.

Central banks printing and lending money to their own governments.

What are the implications?

Why should governments even think about reducing debt in this situation? Especially the German government. They should borrow as much as they possibly can?

Why is it happening? Is it just some natural consequence of wealth concentration. Too much concentrated wealth and (apparently) not enough!!! borrowing demand?

#104 Penny Henny on 08.03.19 at 1:41 pm

79 Nonplused on 08.03.19 at 1:05 am
#49 Keith Stoute

Well, I appear prominently in “length of post”. I assume those are letters because there is no way I am typing 6000 words, but still a good measure. I am also “Flat Earth Society” and “Nobel Laureate”, whom I notice are also verbose.
///////////////

That’s funny cause I liked reading comments from ‘Flat Earth Society” but I just skip through ‘Nonplussed’ because they ramble on too much

#105 Phylis on 08.03.19 at 1:47 pm

#103 Shawn borrowing demand. Seems like a new bank slogan is needed. your money is worth less than you think.

#106 Shawn Allen on 08.03.19 at 1:51 pm

Who pays and who collects bank of Canada 1.75%?

By the way, who pays and who is collecting that 1.75% overnight rate? And how many dollars?

….

Certainly banks should not now want to bother holding any federal government bonds since they pay less than Bank of Canada overnight rate?

Perhaps other have better knowledge?

Institutions hold government bonds because they are risk-free, not to collect interest. You have some difficulty grasping bonds, it appears. Nobody buys them for cash flow. – Garth

********************************
Actually, I have been thinking and coming around to your point on that. I would not say “nobody” buys for cash flow but I take your point that many or most buy for stability.

But why buy the 30 years and even ten years when short-term investments are equally as risk free? Turner investments I understand uses only? short bonds in the asset mix and also puts half the fixed income into things other than bonds.

Sure 30 year bonds can give capital gains but at the cost of potential capital losses so that is not certain to add stability to a portfolio. They are not always negatively correlated to stocks. (See the about the entire 1970’s)

But my question in the post you responded to was specifically about who pays and who collects the 1.75% Bank of Canada over night interest rate? I want to learn more about that too. That’s now a pretty good risk-free rate versus the low return but risk free bonds.

#107 Barb on 08.03.19 at 5:35 pm

This post and Watson’s summary are so cool!
Thanks techie Stoute!

#108 acdel on 08.03.19 at 9:38 pm

Ha, funny, sad, or just insulting to so many that posted a very well stated educational comeback that did not make the list!

For me I enjoy the reading between the lines types; good on you! :)

#109 45north on 08.03.19 at 11:27 pm

Soil Survey of Lunenburg County:

http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/publications/surveys/ns/ns7/index.html

These documents include archived information that is provided for reference, research or record keeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards

People responsible for the Web Standards have threatened to shut down the web site for 19 years because it doesn’t conform to the standards. The Soil Survey of Lunenburg County is available in English only. Blind people cannot see the maps. The Soil Survey of Lunenburg County was done in 1957 but it’s the most up-to-date information available.

Huge resources have been poured into the Web Standards at the expense of the underlying data.

I was a member of the team responsible for developing the web site. We located the original soil reports, scanned them and put them up on the web site. It’s a fairly straight forward process but for the last 10 years on the job most of the effort went into trying to conform to the web standards – a useless effort.

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 08.04.19 at 10:48 am

Could we see $1000-$5000 to sell a home?

How about $1,000 to $5,000 as a 100% down payment??

Remember it is only a place to live.