How desperate?

Tim Hudak is, well, terrifying. The former hard-con, right-hand dude of legendary hack-‘n-slash premier Mike Harris of Ontario was largely credited as having handed an election to his Lib opponents, who plunged the hapless province into a morass of spending and debt. And that begat weird Doug Ford. Tim scared people by saying he’d fire a hundred thousand civil servants, corral teachers and be a general badass. Voters recoiled. Hudak lost his job in politics, then found the perfect spot for a hardcore capitalist: real estate.

He’s boss of the Ontario realtors’ association these days and has become a leading voice in trashing the mortgage stress test. Hudak’s not alone. The mortgage brokers all hate it. Real estate boards nation-wide have been lobbying against it. CREA’s all fussed. Even some big-name bank economists (like CIBC’s Benny Tal) have told Ottawa to gut it. The logic is that by forcing people to quality for a mortgage at 5.19% when they can get one for 2.8% (or less) is overkill. With a slowing economy the threat of a rate pop has, they argue, dissipated.

Says the former politician: “The test is disastrously flawed and is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Only the federal government can address these harsh one-size-fits-all mortgage restrictions.” So, with a big election coming in October, Hudak and all these other interests are beating on Justin to tell the bank regulator to back off.

Will he? Unlikely. But maybe. Depends on how desperate the federal Libs are for re-election. After all, a powerful force in making T2 the PM were moisters – now in their horniest of house-lusty years. It’s lost on nobody that they form the single-largest demographic (how did that happen?).

As you know, all real estate’s local. BC is a mess. The flat bits are comatose, Ontario is variegated. The GTA’s stable but low-energy. Montreal and Halifax are hot. The rest of the nation is at the beach. But the stats are telling. Mortgage rates are near historic lows and yet mortgage lending is the worst in over two decades. Up to 80% of real estate agents in major markets have not made a single sale in 2019. Prices are lower than 2017 levels in Toronto and Vancouver but still average families are far from being able to afford the average home. High prices mean high rents. It takes an income of almost $58,000 to lease a one-bedder in Toronto, and that’s higher than the median wage.

So, yeah, it’s a political issue.

Now, a reality check. Because we all know Justin reads this blog (bonjour!), let’s flip over to the always-helpful site called ‘Visual Capitalist’ which has just done an update on how humans love to commit death-by-real-estate.  Following up on a study by economist Niraj Shah, the VC dove into four key metrics which are warning signs of a housing bubble. “Ranking high on just one of these metrics is a warning sign for a country’s housing market,” we are told, “while ranking high on multiple measures signals even greater fragility.”

And guess what? We ace all four.

Source: Visual Capitalist. Click to enlarge.

In terms of the House-Price Ratio, House Price-to-Income Ratio, Real House Prices and Credit-to-Household Ratio, Canada sucks. So does New Zealand, but that country has about as many people as Montreal (sheep excluded).

Housing bubbles are destructive events. They never end well. ‘Soft landings’ are the Holy Grail of policymakers, but the normal conclusion is a deep hole with a smoldering fuselage sticking out of it. The stress test has slowed sales, tempered buying, reduced credit demand and erased FOMO. This is exactly why Hudak wants it gone. As does friendly barbarian-premier, Jason Kenney.

Soon we will see what spine the government has.

$     $     $

  So, these are Steve’s two dogs. He sent the picture along just to bribe me into answering his question. Apparently it’s working.

Hi there Garth. Great blog. I love it and regularly send the articles to my friends living in Toronto. I live in the great white North (well Sudbury…more like the grey North) and I have a house that I am renting to a friend. I am tired of renting and want to sell it. Likely I will sell it to them and do privately, but I was wondering how I figure out a good price. If I ask a real estate agent to assess it, they will probably assume they are going to get the listing and they’ll give me either a low ball (so they can sell it fast) or a high ball (so they can make a bigger commission). I was thinking of using a ‘real estate appraisal’ company, but will they give me a real value based on the sales in the area or what? A lot of the house’s value is in the yard and the neighborhood and if they just go by the stats, then I’m afraid it will get appraised very low. How do I get an honest, true value?

The simple, and vaguely unethical, way of doing this is to call three realtors (not one) who work for various brokerages and have experience selling in your area. Ask them to do a market assessment, and back up their opinions with research – which should involve an analysis of the comparables (recent ‘solds’ in the hood). Average out these three opinions for a pretty good ballpark of current value.

But like I said, it’s unfair to expect anyone to work for nothing (except me, on this blog), so best to declare your intention upfront and offer to pay for this process. Or, yes, you can engage a licensed real estate appraiser who will do essentially the same thing, providing data on similar properties’ sale prices and estimating the worth of yours. If your property’s in the city, a SFH and not on the water, this will cost about $400 plus tax.

What’s it really worth? Simple. What your buddy will pay.

 

94 comments ↓

#1 Sgt. Schultz on 07.22.19 at 3:43 pm

Talking about Just-in-time Trudeau – “I see nothing, I hear nothing, I Know nothing.”

How does this Schmuk rehire Gearld Butts, unreal!

#2 Sandra Solomon on 07.22.19 at 3:46 pm

BANNED

#3 Spend Some Money on 07.22.19 at 3:53 pm

A real estate agent can appraise a home based on his honesty, and experience. I would spend a few bucks and hire an A.A.C.I to give you a complete report first.

#4 Steve - Bungol is what you need on 07.22.19 at 4:13 pm

Steve, the easiest way is to do your own research and be well informed. Take a look at all the recent sale prices in your area on bungol.ca by creating a free account. Also show your friend the same sales data and reach a mutually acceptable number.

#5 Kelly on 07.22.19 at 4:17 pm

Tim Hudak would have won the provincial election easily by simply saying “vote for me”.
The Tory handlers in Ontario are legendary in their incompetence.

I expect the interest rates to stay low until the great reset or Trump wins his third term. In any event, an adjustment lower should not be a surprise. A jump start in housing is needed badly.

With Butts back, T2 now has someone in his earpiece to keep him appear competant. Unfortunately, all pipelines are dead if T2 wins and Canada is toast.

#6 dakkie on 07.22.19 at 4:47 pm

Canada’s Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, June Update

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-june-update/

#7 Dolce Vita on 07.22.19 at 4:53 pm

If Justin reads this Blog, well let me tell you this from the life long Liberal that I am (identifying the strongest with Chrétien and Martin for what they did to turn around the Federal Debt to a large Surplus that Harper inherited):

Try and shut up as much as you can until October before you destroy the Federal Liberal Party in its entirety.

No point getting into it as to why; otherwise, this Comment would turn into WAR AND PEACE at all the dumber than a box of rocks, sack of hammers, things you have said, done and planked in the past 4 years (https://youtu.be/sP0d2btYLek?t=15).

As for relaxing B20 or ending it, recall: cheap and easy mortgage credit, lax lending rules and how that can end…

The Big Short.

…and no, that’s not a movie about oversize Men’s underwear.

#8 Amok on 07.22.19 at 5:36 pm

Trudeau doesn’t have to worry about appealing to any particular demographic. The Libs already have the October election in the bag:
Bernier’s PPC is gonna split the conservative vote across the country.
The NDP will be decimated. I predict 10 seats, if that.
The Greens will pick up a bunch of extra votes, but probably no extra seats.
Liberals will win, with either a minority or more likely another majority.

Yawn.

#9 binky barnes on 07.22.19 at 5:43 pm

Butts back? Unreal. Bad move JT–reminds people of SNC debacle and great ammo for Scheer as election approaches.

#10 Linda on 07.22.19 at 5:51 pm

Actually the population of New Zealand is just under 4.8 million. Montreal currently checks in at 1.75 million. Both figures 2019 as per the mighty Google.

The stress test may indeed be thrown under the political bus of re-election. I’m not sure that it will improve sales even if it is. The state of indebtedness is such that even the usual insouciant types are going ‘whoa’. As for sales in the GTA & YVR, I think the pool of people able to pay the prices has long since been reduced to drought cracked mud. If OFSI wants the banks to keep their balance sheets on the side of secure, can’t see the banks willing to loan money out to those whose incomes truly can’t make the cut, low interest rates notwithstanding. As noted in not a few news articles, Boomers aren’t retiring as predicted. How can they when nearly half of them haven’t prepared financially for retirement?

Tim Hudak, like many politicians, failed to recall that the government employees he was threatening to punt if elected vote. So do their families & friends. I get that politicians are playing to the wider electorate by promising stuff like this, but the wider electorate has in recent years been less than willing to actually get out & vote. Whereas anyone with a functioning brain cell IS going to vote against someone who is threatening their livelihood. Just saying.

Montreal urban area pop is 4.1 million. – Garth

#11 Rargary on 07.22.19 at 5:53 pm

Wow. Someone got banned on Garth. They must be a rar! B-bye Sandra.
Does JT really read this blog? Is he looking for pointers?
Also, hiring a real estate appraiser may not work in this guy’s favour. It was in the news they are to purposely low-ball by 20%. Realtor comparative analysis is his best bet.

#12 Frustrated Kiwi on 07.22.19 at 6:15 pm

Feel I should comment on any post that gives a shout out to NZ – although you were a little rude. :-) Yes, our small population (like BC – about to hit 5 mil) makes our housing inflation even more impressive/ridiculous. Enjoying all these letters posted recently by the way – thanks! A friend did similar to Steve and used two appraisals – one chosen by himself and one by the buyer, then they averaged the two values.

#13 yorkville renter on 07.22.19 at 6:28 pm

“a deep hole with a smoldering fuselage sticking out of it. ”

… I read as I board my flight to Europe.

#14 Ultraman on 07.22.19 at 6:28 pm

Steve, use the factor of 15. You house is worth 15 times the annual rent. Fair market value of the rent of course.

#15 TurnerNation on 07.22.19 at 6:45 pm

Uhh so where does Bandit go for his grooming and waxing?
Moot point?

#16 Dave on 07.22.19 at 6:50 pm

What spine the government has? T2 has none. He’s not standing up to China for the detained Canadians, he’s not doing anything to prevent money laundering from the Chinese. He’s attended cash for access fundraisers with wealthy Chinese businessman.

#17 The dog pound on 07.22.19 at 6:55 pm

Re-name the stress test to the house bubble prevention block.

Wake me up when you can buy a single detach house in the rural part of BC for less than 800k.

Sales might be down, but prices are at all time highs. So what if if prices have dropped a bit. A person who works a job for a living that pays less than 200k and is a new entrant into the housing market since 2016 will never afford a single detach in BC, ever.

A line in the sand was drawn by 2016 – all future generations have been robbed.

#18 dirtydebtor on 07.22.19 at 7:04 pm

Canuck living in NZ here

the house horniness down here is eerily similar to vancouver. the locals are property crazy.

I rent a 1.4 million dollar apartment for $2300 per month.

The situation in NZ is even more insane though, as the building stock is built like absolute trash – even worse than the quality built during vancouver’s leaky condo crisis. (qualify to comment as i work in the construction biz)

over half the housing stock has no insulation. All new houses and apartments are still built without central heat or mechanical ventilation. Damp, mouldy homes are the norm. heating is electric, power is very expensive, most people suffer through winter in the cold and damp rather than flick on a heater (to the detriment of their health – NZ has the highest rate of respiratory illness in the developed world)

similar problems in australia right now with poor construction quality. though the weather is somewhat more forgiving, so even though the buildings are leaky, the weather is warm and dry enough that the buildings dont become rapidly dilapidated like they do in NZ. in sydney, there were line-ups around the block to pay $1M for an apartment, many of which are structurally failing at the moment.

at least in canada, when you buy real estate, you run a much lower risk of being saddled with liability for what was built on the slice of dirt.

#19 Smoking Man on 07.22.19 at 7:07 pm

Not a good sign or CAD economy. Huge Drop.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/wholesale-sales

#20 Alberta Ed on 07.22.19 at 7:09 pm

Beavis having to bring Buttshead back to do his thinking makes him look even more desperate and inept. Spine? Fuggedaboutit!

#21 Jeffrey on 07.22.19 at 7:14 pm

#2 Sandra Solomon on 07.22.19 at 3:46 pm

BANNED

This lady is so infamous of preaching hate against Muslims I wonder if she will ever get a job in Canada or Saudi Arabia (where she claims she originates).

#22 Denise Manjai on 07.22.19 at 7:18 pm

This is all a bunch of bull. For years the Chretien, Martin Liberals and Clinton, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown Liberals etc. pumped up housing praising low interest rates. How many times I heard that low interest rates were good for the economy and now look at the debt ridden society we have now. People don’t even have basic economics and how interest rates impact, highly inflate real estate and real inflation, cost of living and not the highly skewed to low side government statistics say.

John Cannis wrote newsletters how much interest Canadians were saving because under the Liberals interest rates were going lower and staying lower.

If the Trudeau and Morneau Canada Liberals had a real backbone, guts, they would have a 10% per year mortgage payment requirement for anyone with less than 25% down and an 8% per year mortgage payment requirement anyone who had more than 25% down.

They don’t want this including the Bank of Canada because interest rates were always higher in Canada than the U.S. They are all cheating everyone from savers to Canadians buying real estate at super inflated prices and cost of living.

#23 Craig Winters on 07.22.19 at 7:28 pm

Amok, Liberals appeal to low information voters and those that live off government, taxpayers. When the Canadian dollar gets to 50 cents per $1 U.S. dollar all those raises, welfare, benefits etc. will be just as worthless as any worthless as the monthly free money for kids to pay daycare and other kids expenses.

Remember the 62.5 cents to U.S. dollar under Chretien, Martin Liberals. Canadians like most others always want to learn the hard way, so be it.

#24 Armpit on 07.22.19 at 7:35 pm

Under Brazil’s Penal Code, slavery is characterized by degrading conditions, exhaustive working hours, forced labour and debt bondage. Sounds familiar???

#25 Cash is King on 07.22.19 at 7:40 pm

Am I the only one to notice that at the end of the paragraph mentioning that Justin reads this blog (Selfie!) there is a picture!! Coincidence? I think not!

Yes, Tiny Tim Hudak snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. His eternal reward also includes a barely listenable podcast that our local radio station refuses to delete.

#26 Andrew wake up on 07.22.19 at 7:46 pm

Not wanting to vote Liberal, but Andrew talking about scrapping the spec tax, being in big dairy back pocket and all this other bs like making weed illegal again…

These options suck. Time for a John Horgan or Eby as PM.

#27 Joe on 07.22.19 at 7:46 pm

Question

What if you need comparable done if your buying home from estate when folks pass to satisfy value of home to brothers and sisters and buy them out? Is this free info or do you have to pay for this?

#28 Sail away on 07.22.19 at 7:53 pm

#3 Spend Some Money on 07.22.19 at 3:53 pm

A real estate agent can appraise a home based on his honesty, and experience. I would spend a few bucks and hire an A.A.C.I to give you a complete report first.

————————————————-

Steve, I second this advice, as well as Garth’s advice. Ignore anyone telling you to do your own valuation. RE agents can provide value – we would’ve sold our first house below market value if pricing it ourselves, and actually came close to doing that.

The RE agent was money very well spent.

#29 Fred B on 07.22.19 at 7:58 pm

To Linda,

Greater Montreal has around 4 million in population, so Garth is right… Obvious…

#30 the Jaguar on 07.22.19 at 8:00 pm

Here is what Evan Siddell said in his letter to the Canadian Finance Committee in May 2019. He is a man of great integrity and leads CMHC. I wholeheartedly agree with him. Stay the course Canada:
” My job is to advise you against this reckless myopia and protect our economy from potentially tragic consequences. Indeed, it was my primary aim in leaving a private sector career in finance for public service: to help prevent a repeat of the harm that excessive mortgage lending created for hundreds of thousands of households just a decade ago.

The stress test is doing what it is supposed to do. Please look past the plain self-interest of the CHBA, MPC and OREA and see house price moderation as helpful: an intended consequence. Choose instead to heed the consistent views of those of us who are unconflicted: the Department of Finance, OSFI, the Bank of Canada, the IMF — again just this week, and CMHC. We will of course continue to monitor housing markets to ensure that the stress test and all sandbox measures are having the desired effects and the Minister of Finance or OSFI may make changes in the future.

CMHC’s analysis concluded that since first introduced in 2010, changes in stress test requirements since 2010 have helped reduce house prices nationally by 3.4% versus where they otherwise would have been. Correspondingly, in an astonishing piece of work, economists at TD Bank argued that the stress test should be removed so that house prices can increase by $32,000. CIBC’s economist has also called for a re-assessment of the stress test. Since a federal government guarantee stands behind lenders’ insured mortgages, these appear to be cases of evident moral hazard. I doubt they’d be as cavalier if it were their risk.

In closing, therefore, I would ask you to see past those who insist that everything will unfold benignly, as we all nonetheless hope. As a former US Senator once said, ”A billion here, a billion there; sooner or later it adds up to real money.” And then we have a problem — and one we could have avoided. “

#31 the Jaguar on 07.22.19 at 8:01 pm

P.S. I think Benny Tal is a weasel.

#32 Butts on 07.22.19 at 8:17 pm

Did anyone hear him announce this formally that he’s coming back? I must have missed it!

#33 tccontrarian on 07.22.19 at 8:27 pm

Steve, do what Garth suggests and ask for at least 3 market valuations. Also, hire an appraiser – only a few bucks more.
In 2006, I got a couple RE agents to do a ‘free’ assessment and they both came back with $375-395k (in the Langley area, BC). However, I’d done my own research and had concluded that mine was worth more, as our lot was 30% larger (from comparables sold the previous 6 months). I was firm in asking more, and so we did: at $433,000 to be exact; we sold in 10 days for $2k less than asking!
It pays to do your homework! And don’t be cheap! A good appraisal is really an investment.

TCC

#34 45north on 07.22.19 at 8:50 pm

House Price-Rent Ratio

Canada is 195.9
US is 110.8

roughly two to one

Monetary policy is made in the USA. So if interest rates go down, the drop will cushion Canadian real estate. Donald Trump says he wants lower rates, the theory is that lower rates will stimulate the economy and help him get re-elected. Everyone thinks they got it figured out but there’s another dimension: Capital flight.

Right now, the European Central Bank is lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy but this lowering, makes the US dollar more attractive. So capital moves from Europe to the US.

Capital is also moving from China to the US.

Everyone expects that the US Fed will lower interest rates on July 31 but it’s not going to. Donald Trump doesn’t need lower interest rates – he’s got the Squad.

The house price-rent ratio makes the Canadian housing market far more vulnerable to rising interest rates.

#35 Ronaldo on 07.22.19 at 8:55 pm

#17 the dog pound

Here’s a nice little fixer upper for you.

https://www.kijiji.ca/v-house-for-sale/smithers/259-elm-street-fort-st-james-british-columbia/1441848265?enableSearchNavigationFlag=true

#36 45north on 07.22.19 at 9:04 pm

the Jaguar:

Evan Siddall: My job is to advise you against this reckless myopia and protect our economy from potentially tragic consequences. Indeed, it was my primary aim in leaving a private sector career in finance for public service: to help prevent a repeat of the harm that excessive mortgage lending created for hundreds of thousands of households just a decade ago.

thank God for Evan Siddall.

#37 Sebee on 07.22.19 at 9:05 pm

Garth,

How can you look st that number and say slow melt in Canada? The second largest country on the planet with lowest population density to boot. And yet we believe there is a shortage!

#38 Scott Cordian on 07.22.19 at 9:17 pm

Andrew Scheer if you or anyone from the Conservative Party of Canada read this blog and my comments, do these 20 things and you will win the Fall-2019 election. This is only for the Conservative party of Canada to implement.

1) Every working taxpayer under 50 that works in the private sector and business owner will get a $250,000 income exemption for income taxes.

2) Every taxpayer and retiree that gets C.P.P., OAS, all other pensions will get a $10,000 a year annual exemption for income taxes.

3) RRSP’s don’t have to be change to a RRIF, Annuity or cashed in until someone reaches 75.

4) a flat tax of maximum 0% tax rate will apply to RRSP, RRIF annual withdrawals of up to maximum $50,000 lifetime for hardship cases such as illness, financial need due to unemployment, taking care of family members sick, children, adults going to university, college, trade schools, divorce etc.

5) Everyone that has working income, the first $20,000 a year will pay only a 0% tax rate not 15%.

6) RRSP’s up to maximum $50,000 per person can be used for down payments for first time home buyers will be repayable at time of death of all owners on the property, no more repaying back over 15 years.

7) There will be a $10,000 annual deduction for each child under 10 years old, $5,000 for over 10 years old with only one income or incomes under $70,000 a year.

8) TFSA annual contribution will be increased to $10,000 as it was prior.

9) A maximum $20,000 a year contribution to a medical, health savings account for a lifetime $500,000 per person to pay for any medical expense not covered by an insurance. This will be, grow and stay tax free as long as used for medical, health expenses including nursing homes, assisted living and other minor to major expenses.

10) A new topped up savings account match, GIC, term deposit, interest bearing accounts only called TOSIA(Topped Up Savings Investment Account) up to a maximum lifetime of $100,000 per person and maximum 12% per 5 year term of interest.

11) C.P.P., E.I. annual contributions will be a tax deduction not a tax credit meaning you get a larger tax refund or tax savings.

12) E.I. will be U.I. and will pay everyone 100 weeks if they worked at least 10 years straight, 50 weeks if they worked 5 years.

13) An extra E.I. or U.I. will be payable by business on the first $30,000 of income at 2% but the benefit will be be transferable to anyone in the family over 18 years old if the original recipient can’t claim for whatever reason.

14) C.P.P. Disability will get an extra increase of $200 a month for 60 months. This is only for those employed for a minimum 20 years total. Any C.P.P. disability under $800 a month will get an immediate $400 a month increase for just the first year.

15) Doctors, nurses and other medically necessary health practitioners that stay in Canada for a minimum 30 years will get an extra $1,000 a month C.P.P. increase from 65 years until to 85 years old.

16) Capital gains inflation deduction of maximum $7,500 per year will be allowed per tax payer. Also, an annual property taxes and rent deduction of $7,500 a year for those that don’t have any financial investments.

17) a $100,000 maximum lifetime private education tax deduction for families of all ages. Lower income earners making under $50,000 a year per family will get a $10,000 a year transfer option from public funds to private education institution.

18) Business owners capital gains exemption will be raised to $1,000,000 per owner of the business if they are operating in Canada with at least 20 employees and in business for 20 years.

19) Smaller size business will still get the $1,000,000 per business owner capital gains tax exemption if they have at least 75% of their employees, operations in Canada.

20) Any political party that has politicians that move from one party to another will face a $1,000,000 fine or must not be a politician or work for any government agency for at least 10 years.

#39 Shawn Allen on 07.22.19 at 9:22 pm

Mortgage Delinquencies

Garth has said these are not a useful predictor and that may be true.

Still, given that 90 day mortgage delinquencies are published by the Canada Bankers Association, I like to keep an eye on it.

90 day mortgage delinquencies are stuck at record lows of just one in one thousand mortgages in Ontario. They have been at or close to that record low for about 18 months. (0.10% or even 0.09% in some months call it 0.1% rounded).

Just one in a thousand being 90 days late strikes me as way too good to be true. I would have thought that just from people dieing or being out of the country or simply forgetting that it would be higher than that. Not to mention the unemployed and the divorcing. Something is fishy in these numbers I would say. But in any case I would like to see some updated figures.

But the latest figures are from January. The eager beavers at the Canadian Bankers Association generally post these “monthly” figures only every two months. The latest update was over two months ago on May 17th.

Seems like the work ethic of the people at that bankers association would make a 60 year old government worker coasting to retirement blush.

#40 SimplyPut7 on 07.22.19 at 9:22 pm

Justin reads?

Let’s give him some facts from his dear friend Tal

1) ‘Toronto is lagging Vancouver by about 14 months’ (0:29 min)

2) His thoughts on the Toronto condo market: ‘I believe that will start slowing down as well because investors are not investing’ (1:42 min)

3) ‘50% of the condo space in Toronto are investors’ (1:47 min)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m04aW9Wn-VU

Do those sound like housing markets you want to be spending taxpayer dollars on?

Or how about this scenario:

Buyer agreed to purchase newbuild home in Markham for $1.7 million.
Puts down $140,000.
Paid the sales agent a “bribe” to get ahead of the line.
Buyer failed to close.
Home now worth just $1.050 million.
Court orders the buyer to pay the builder $554,308.41 in damages on top of losing the $140,000 deposit.

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/1152287575056498690

B20 is not just about qualifying for a mortgage at 5.19%, you also have to verify the investor’s income.

Justin, you do not have the funds to bailout every greedy investor. They never qualified under the old rules so they will never qualify now. This is why the benchmark posted 5-year fixed rate is still so high, someone at OSFI was finally told the truth. There’s no wave of foreigners with a suitcase full of money coming to buy the overpriced homes. The investors never wanted the properties either nor did they want to become landlords. If the investors want to keep the property that badly they can pay the true price for taking on so much risk, 9% – 15% interest from a private lender.

There’s no change to the stress test that can make an investor find a mortgage large enough to cover a home that has fallen nearly 40% in value.

Let the investors rot, 2020 to 2024 will be some challenging times for real estate investors. You or Andrew Scheer will have to figure out how will Canada pay for all of its expensive social services without tax revenue from housing or oil and gas.

Maybe give CRA more power to go after all the investors for the years they didn’t cover in their targeted searches on housing tax cheats to make up the difference? The years 2011-2014 would be a great start.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/05/30/cra-adds-1-billion-to-government-coffers-going-after-real-estate-tax-cheats.html

#41 TurnerNation on 07.22.19 at 9:25 pm

#18 dirtydebtor tell us about the Bogans!

#42 Shawn Allen on 07.22.19 at 9:28 pm

Stress Test

The logic is that by forcing people to quality for a mortgage at 5.19% when they can get one for 2.8% (or less) is overkill.

***********************
The sentence pretty well demonstrates it is overkill.

It is one thing to have a stress test that truly tries to protect borrowers and lenders by making sure they can handle a 2% increase in rates. (Or whatever level of increase is deemed reasonable)

It is another and basically improper thing to impose a stress test for the actual purpose of pushing house prices down and then pretend it is to protect new borrowers and their lenders. And it does not seem proper to tie the stress test to weird posted 5 year rates that the banks in fact it seems never charge.

The “end” may be laudable but lieing about the goal of the stress test and using an easily manipulated non-market set of so called posted rates is bogus.

#43 Shawn Allen on 07.22.19 at 10:00 pm

Mortgage Delinquencies

At just one in one thousand being 90 days or more late in Ontario and just one in 400 nationally the evidence suggests that 99.75% of mortgage payers are affording their mortgages just fine thank you very much. (Yes I am ignoring those who are 30 or 60 days late, but even so).

Opinion suggests many people can’t afford their mortgages. The data suggest they find a way. Just sayin’

Weird but true.

#44 Jane Santiago on 07.22.19 at 10:11 pm

Scott Cordian, I would like add to point #15 one thing on your list, doctors should also get a $100,000 tax free retirement bonus for 30 years or more service in Canada.

#45 SoggyShorts on 07.22.19 at 10:12 pm

#38 Scott Cordian on 07.22.19 at 9:17 pm

I like it! Everyone pays zero tax all the time, sounds perfect! We’re not gonna talk bout the government going bankrupt though right? Good.

#46 Damifino on 07.22.19 at 10:56 pm

#8 Amok

Bernier’s PPC is gonna split the conservative vote across the country.
——————————–

Nope. Practically every conservative will realize a vote for Bernier is as good as a vote for nobody. It’s the left that hasn’t yet figured out how to avoid a split vote.

I predict a Conservative minority. It probably won’t last very long, though.

#47 Nonplused on 07.22.19 at 11:09 pm

Steve should be cautious about doing business with friends or relatives. Unless he’s ok not having that friend again in the future.

#48 The Real Mark on 07.22.19 at 11:22 pm

Instead of the silliness of ‘qualifying’ based on an interest rate, why not qualify credit based on a property costing no more than 3X income.

Either way, you get the same result, but at least the Realtors can’t make the accusation of undue interference based on faulty assumptions of rising interest rates.

“Opinion suggests many people can’t afford their mortgages. The data suggest they find a way. Just sayin’”

The allocation of capital excessively into household mortgage credit, whether as a payor or a lender, has systemic effects on the economy which should not be discounted.

I’m not too worried about a big cataclysm of defaults unfolding. But what I am worried about is that there will be some pretty extreme wealth disparities created, massive “winners and losers” if large swaths of the population are excluded from the sort of wealth creating opportunities that the next economic cycle will bring us. Of course, by definition, only a small number of people really can be wealthy in a society, so its a perfect setup for a massive transfer of wealth towards those with the foresight to bet against big finance and real estate. Over the past month, I think we’ve just had the beginnings of a taste of what the precious metals equities are capable of….

#49 Nobody on 07.22.19 at 11:30 pm

Get rid of the stress test but also get rid of CMHC.
It’s not the government’s job to tell people how much house they can afford – let the market decide. The banks will decide how much “stress” they want to test their customers – when it’s their own money on the line.

Then remind borrowers that, unlike the USA, their mortgage rates can go up and they can’t just give the keys back.

#50 Axehead on 07.22.19 at 11:33 pm

Steve, if you’re feeling guilty, just have 2 realtors assess comparables and treat it like they are applying for your contract. The best realtor wins. Also, in normal times, I add 10% to the city’s tax assessment value and most often get a good value for my home. Axe.

#51 Government with a spine on 07.23.19 at 12:00 am

Soon we will see what spine the government has.
==================================
Its all about self preservation for the filthy political clowns we have at all 3 levels of governance, if one can actually call it that.

I get a chuckle when the left and right leaning people argue who is a better choice…LOL

News Flash!!! They all suck on some level and most reek of corruption.

They are all scoundrels that give lip service but fail to actually have a proper vision outside of another term in office.

Self preservation is all these clowns really care about and we all know it sadly.

#52 Smartalox on 07.23.19 at 12:21 am

@Shawn Allen #43:

Reverse mortgages are kept current by drawing further debt from the principal.

Same with HELOC and blended HELOC mortgages. Garth has often quoted figures for how many make interest-only payments.

#53 Vampire Studies (doctoral thesis) on 07.23.19 at 12:58 am

37 Sebee – you haven’t figured it out have you? The land supply is restricted and the requirements to develop onerous.

But you can move to lovely affordable Tahsis BC.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20934924/4-bedroom-single-family-house-347-maquinna-n-drive-tahsis-z7-tahsiszeballos

#54 Lizard Man on 07.23.19 at 1:36 am

An appraisers work up would be too technical and honest. I suggest using an appraiser for a CMA would be a waste of money. Use an appraiser for a probate or divorce, but dealing with real estate snakes is likely the second best alternative to FSBO where you’ll pay zero commission. This doesn’t mean you have to cut up the snakes altogether. You can always negotiate a lower commission with an agent on an exclusive contract waiver that blows up in 24 hours unless they produce the offer promised. These days, with a tanking market, desperate agents are putty in your hands. Kick ‘me out when the talk stupid, they’re a dime a dozen.

And btw, once you’ve you’re free. Don’t be too quick to jump back into the real property toilet. If you’re smart you get a Mail Boxes Etc address and leave the country with an Ipad and a online trading acct. Buying stocks poolside is the best revenge.

#55 Smoking Man on 07.23.19 at 1:53 am

After 60 it’s a fast track down hill.
When you cant leap out of the pool in one motion.
Brazilian babes all over the place and you dont care. You are looking for the chair lift.

https://youtu.be/KPrf-svWUAQ

#56 Smoking Man on 07.23.19 at 2:29 am

When driving in Arizona.

Dont be afraid. Orange plazma pilots love you fools
That’s why we are here

https://youtu.be/-zol906ltPU

#57 Nonplused on 07.23.19 at 2:43 am

OMG I have just come up with a epiphany that probably doesn’t belong here but I haven’t yet figured out where to put it.

The trend these days is to de-invite children to weddings, usually so you can have a fancier wedding at less cost. But the purpose of wedding ceremonies is to pass the sacrosanct act of marrying and an understanding of it on to children. Plus the kids do most of the dancing until the adults get drunk. The kids have the best time and provide the most fun.

Totally unrelated to this blog I think but I needed a place to type before I place it in other locations.

#58 Smoking Man on 07.23.19 at 2:44 am

I’m a straight white man, zero chance of a freak show of nature attempting to make me feel guilty of the body I was born with.

Liberals. You are all insane. Enjoy the nose bleed seats after the election.

#59 Howard on 07.23.19 at 6:14 am

Can’t argue with Kevin’s assessment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gwsn3twqwZ0

Kevin O’Leary Says Trudeau is Toxic, Period

#60 Howard on 07.23.19 at 6:34 am

#37 Sebee on 07.22.19 at 9:05 pm
Garth,

How can you look st that number and say slow melt in Canada? The second largest country on the planet with lowest population density to boot. And yet we believe there is a shortage!

————————————-

Slow melt? I thought Garth said that Toronto RE will never decline?

I said 416 is more immune to corrections. 905, not so much. – Garth

#61 Howard on 07.23.19 at 6:42 am

#18 dirtydebtor on 07.22.19 at 7:04 pm

Might I suggest Martin North’s “Walk the World” channel on YouTube. He’s an Australian financial analyst and noted housing realist. He’s done quite a few segments on the New Zealand housing market. Looks like quite a mess down there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5_Q9PQDcjE

#62 MF on 07.23.19 at 7:01 am

#51 Government with a spine on 07.23.19 at 12:00 am

-Nothing worse than this type of cynical, self defeating whiny loser.

They always think they are so “edgy” too.

Don’t like anyone running for office, then run yourself. Or, use your vote and energy to promote someone whose views you like.

MF

#63 maxx on 07.23.19 at 7:09 am

#5 Kelly on 07.22.19 at 4:17 pm

“With Butts back, T2 now has someone in his earpiece to keep him appear competant.”

Why on earth, no, in the universe as we know it would it work this time around?

#64 IHCTD9 on 07.23.19 at 7:19 am

#51 Government with a spine on 07.23.19 at 12:00 am
____

Indeed there is not a lot of policy difference where it counts: economy and spending.

A tip for you that works for me is to restrict your financial support of government. Find ways to avoid taxation like buying used, maxing RRSP’s (if that makes sense for you), and doing your own work on the vehicles, house, property etc… Limiting your conventional energy use will also pay dividends now, and especially in the future – energy is highly taxed and will only get worse.

Once you have slashed a big chunk of your financial support, it’s less worry what Ottawa does.

#65 Sameeta Sharma on 07.23.19 at 7:24 am

Soggy Shorts, when people create more business and jobs tax revenues go up because they get great incentives to keep more of their hard earned money by not being taxed to death. The problem is the type of immigration system in this country. We need to get back to a point system with families that bring economic prosperity back to Canada.

The social programs and socialism gets out of hand and tax revenues actually get eaten up as too much economic burden in our society destroys it all. The current system does the opposite and the UN is the bully who forces everyone to do this under Liberals mostly.

#66 dharma bum on 07.23.19 at 7:28 am

#55 Smoking Man

After 60 it’s a fast track down hill.
——————————————————————–

So true.

Funny how it just kinda sneaks up on you.

Everything seems to be going along just fine. Then, one by one, shit starts falling apart.

As you tackle one issue, another pops up. Then another, then another.

Taking care of yourself after 60 is like a game of whack-a-mole!

So, live it up while you can all you middle-agers.

The end is nigh.

#67 Trumpocalypse2019 on 07.23.19 at 7:29 am

Boris Johnson is in office tomorrow. Watch out, Iran.

South Korea attacking Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/23/asia/south-korea-russia-military-intl-hnk/index.html

Mueller blows up the Presidency tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY = WAR

Prepare.

#68 Tater on 07.23.19 at 8:03 am

#43 Shawn Allen on 07.22.19 at 10:00 pm
Mortgage Delinquencies

At just one in one thousand being 90 days or more late in Ontario and just one in 400 nationally the evidence suggests that 99.75% of mortgage payers are affording their mortgages just fine thank you very much. (Yes I am ignoring those who are 30 or 60 days late, but even so).

Opinion suggests many people can’t afford their mortgages. The data suggest they find a way. Just sayin’

Weird but true.
————————-

And? Delinquencies and defaults are lagging indicators. Think for a minute about why that would be.

Defaults in the US began to rise a couple of years past the peak in home prices. Same pattern is seen wherever house bubbles burst.

#69 Stacey Donovan on 07.23.19 at 8:13 am

Hi, Soggy Shorts, Trudeau and Morneau Liberal economics is really working well the last almost 4 years. We have surplus up the wazoo. What a joke.

McGuinty and Wynee Ontario Liberals economics worked really. They added almost $93 billion and $200 billion to Canada’s, Ontario debt and deficits probably every year. Tax,spend, debt us to death really works well, come on.

These very low interest rates let these money drunks get away with this and act like drunken sailors when it comes to our tax dollars being squandered on everything they can create massive bureaucracy and social programs, welfare state that is clearly unsustainable.

#70 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.23.19 at 8:57 am

DELETED

#71 Mauro on 07.23.19 at 9:32 am

Hi Dolce Vita, could you send me an email when you get a minute? I had some questions regarding investing and banking in Italy.

magniarot (at) yahoo (dot) ca

Thank you
Mauro

#72 45north on 07.23.19 at 9:55 am

24 Sussex

Knock it down and turn it into parkland, give it away to some improbably deep-pocketed historical society — anything but this absurd pantomime

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-if-the-pm-needs-an-official-residence-we-can-do-a-hell-of-a-lot-better-than-24-sussex

24 Sussex is a big waste of money. You could turn it into a park or if you could build a replica. A replica would have the same gabled roof and stone siding. You could even have the stupid chimneys.

#73 Sebee on 07.23.19 at 9:58 am

I said 416 is more immune to corrections. 905, not so much. – Garth

What’s so wonderful and special about 905 that makes it immune or affordable by current standards? A non-walkable pile of concrete surrounding corner strip malls and a shopping mall or two…and oh yeah, warehouses, office buildings and plenty of flightpaths. Sure, there are larger lots with larger houses in 905, but mostly it’s repulsive.

I look at 905 and I say to myself…”why”? What makes it worth 1.3m+? Here is 25 acres for 1/2 that price, with less people around you, 1 hour away from 905.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/387-Schwartz-Rd-Lancaster-NY-14086/30362981_zpid/

And as I keep pointing out, you own that 25 acres in the US, not this interest in an estate nonsense in Canada. I mean, in Canada, even house “owners” are really just renters from the Queen, are they not? Where is the value? I agree 100% with you Garth, Canadian are delusional, on many fronts.

I’m no historian by any means, and I have told myself that I’ll read up on how the British were able to come in here, force their laws and regulations upon the natives and demand they sign contracts of ownership to the land in a language that is not the natives under laws the natives don’t understand and follow, and of course under duress. Would any court recognize such a contract as valid? It is all very interesting, from how the land was gotten, to the fact Canadians can’t own any, to the fact we’re out to lunch as far as any relation logic goes thanks to the cheap crack for these junkies that is wonderful debt.

In a world where lifestyles allow work schedule and geographic freedom, someone please try to convince me that 1.3m in 905 is worth it vs. 25 of my own acres 1 hour away, with my own soccer field(s), mountain biking trail(s), park, hunting and fishing grounds. Two and a half time the size of Washington Square Park, for HALF the price of a magical 905 suburban particle board special. Savour that 905 value! Enjoy the commute! Live that 905 dream! “Look mom, a row of big box stores!”

#74 Sebee on 07.23.19 at 10:07 am

So the Europeans claimed they had rights to the land they explored under treaties signed in Europe in complete absence of the Natives that were on this land already?

Someone please, recommend a good history book of how the Europeans conquered and claimed Canada as their own.

#75 LP on 07.23.19 at 10:12 am

#66 dharma bum on 07.23.19 at 7:28 am
#55 Smoking Man

After 60 it’s a fast track down hill.
——————————————————————–

So true.

Funny how it just kinda sneaks up on you.

Everything seems to be going along just fine. Then, one by one, shit starts falling apart.

As you tackle one issue, another pops up. Then another, then another.

Taking care of yourself after 60 is like a game of whack-a-mole!

So, live it up while you can all you middle-agers.

The end is nigh.
**********************************

When the late Herb Gray, MP retired from the House, he
quoted part of the poem Ulysses by Alfred, Lord Tennyson:

Tho’ much is taken, much abides; and tho’
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are,–
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

I take that as a mantra of sorts partly because I am currently in the process of moving and don’t now have (a) the enthusiasm for packing; (b) the strength and stamina I once did. Nevertheless it must be done and I must do it. So in recognition that I am less than I was, I have started early and do as much as I can each day. It will get done and I will prevail.

F72ON

#76 Shawn Allen on 07.23.19 at 10:18 am

Delinquency Opinion versus Data

Tater at 68 responded to me:

And? Delinquencies and defaults are lagging indicators. Think for a minute about why that would be.

Defaults in the US began to rise a couple of years past the peak in home prices. Same pattern is seen wherever house bubbles burst.

***************************

Agreed that the delinquencies figures are a lagging indicator. But that does not mean they should never be looked at or that the publisher should not keep them up to date or that they should not be questioned when they look absurdly low.

Have you looked at the U.S. Delinquency data? Canada is at 0.25% for 90 days. (0.1% Ontario)

For the U.S. I have 30 day delinquency data:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallnsa.htm

Currently at 2.70% for residential real estate loans. That is 11 times higher than Canada except we are 90 day and they are 30 day, so hard to interpret.

The U.S. peaked at about 10% delinquent. That’s one in ten! Compare that to one in a thousand in Ontario. 100 times higher! The U.S. was around 10% delinquent for three full years!!

U.S. delinquencies began to rise in 2007. They rose a lot more later. But some noticeable increase was seen VERY early, before the financial crisis.

I am not looking for Canada to have anything near the U.S. experience. But I have an extremely hard time believing that the the true delinquencies in Ontario are one in a thousand.

Garth says house prices in Toronto have declined a fair amount since the April 2017 peak. Yet delinquencies have not budged at all.

Two years. That’s some lag!

And you said look for the response in a couple years. So here we are. That’s my point. The Canadian Bankers Association is asleep and last posted monthly data for January. That was on May 17th.

#77 Shawn Allen on 07.23.19 at 11:01 am

The Queen is not your landlord

#73 Sebee on 07.23.19 at 9:58 am

I mean, in Canada, even house “owners” are really just renters from the Queen, are they not? Where is the value?

***********************
I am sure there are grains of truth to what you say in legal form, but not in substance.

Canadians own the land they own and can sell it and if it is expropriated they are get compensation.

In both Canada and the U.S. land owners are subject to many regulations and zoning rules.

There are many real problems to worry about. The notion that the Queen owns all the private land in Canada is certainly not a real worry.

#78 Sebee on 07.23.19 at 11:02 am

Hey, forgive Garth. I went on a 905 rant there before I fully woke up with my coffee. That’s what I get for waking up with The Blog!

#79 Spectacle on 07.23.19 at 11:22 am

Re #67.
And if this also doesn’t all happen ( world Ending etc..) will you now only post relevant comments. Such as Real Estate, Economics, Money and the Road ahead.

They banned Alex Jones fear mongering click-bait from the Internet/web for good reasons.

Road Ahead = China & Russia so deeply entwined in the same cause, and China owns a massive percent of Korean economic business interests. At most a game chest pounding chimps. The U.S. is a worldwide levelling instrument. Watch, nothing to prepare for, nothing.

——— Seriously …….. ? —————

#67 Trumpocalypse2019 on 07.23.19 at 7:29 am
Boris Johnson is in office tomorrow. Watch out, Iran.

South Korea attacking Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/23/asia/south-korea-russia-military-intl-hnk/index.html

Mueller blows up the Presidency tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY = WAR

Prepare.

#80 Yukon Elvis on 07.23.19 at 11:32 am

A Kelowna businessman says he is now leery of telephone and online banking after he says he was defrauded of $20,000.

Sebastiaan Pynappels owns Kelowna Cell Repair and was doing his payroll last week when he says things went horribly wrong.

“I needed to increase my e-transfer limit, so I called in. I was on the phone for about 25 minutes before we finally got the issue solved,” he says.

Pynappels says about 25 minutes later he accepted an online payment from a customer, that’s when he noticed a major discrepancy in one of his accounts.

“There was a transfer of $20,000 out of my account.”

He immediately called his bank to determine what had happened.

“I gave the bank all of my information, and then less than an hour later my money is gone. That’s too much of a coincidence.”

Pynappels says his TD branch in Rutland has been understanding and accommodating, but the TD Bank fraud department is moving slowly. After initially indicating they would have things figured out in two weeks, they are now telling Pynappels it’s going to be four weeks. He says that’s a long time to be without $20,000.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.23.19 at 11:35 am

@#1 Sgt Schultz
How does Trudeau rehire Gerald Butts?

+++++

Well, Trudeau needs all the help he can get and Butts was one of the few who actually has a brain in the PMO’s office.
AND since SNC Lavalin still plays well in Quebec where most of his seats will be…….
a Liberal win win……
Disgusting doesnt even begin to describe it.

#82 Lizard Man on 07.23.19 at 11:37 am

OMG, Trudeau couldn’t even get the dope business right. Now, with all his dithering and ” Buttsing In” the dope business is all moving south, along with all the foreign cash that’s Trudeau liberals have chased out of the country.

https://business.financialpost.com/cannabis/cannabis-business/u-s-bankers-are-answering-the-call-of-cannabis-as-deals-flow-away-from-canada

Gawd, what an idiot. Normally when you create lots of new new addicts they make you rich, but Trudeau?

#83 Damifino on 07.23.19 at 12:38 pm

The going got tough and Butts got going. It must have sucked, those few months he spent alone in the ‘private sector’. Not even enough time to pass probation.

If one needed evidence the PM is utterly out of his depth without his dresser, and his dresser without a king…

#84 Butts on 07.23.19 at 1:10 pm

I don’t believe Butts was all that important and rated highly. His background was more into environment issues. The election was won by who was trained in perception management of controlling the masses into thinking a certain way. This alone was not in Butt’s playbook. I now believe Butts has been setup for T2 to lose the election by opening up the SNC scandal once again. The opposition will be all over this issue now before the election.

#85 Marco on 07.23.19 at 1:19 pm

Well, Trudeau is a disgrace and alternative is called a shame. And that is a word excluded from Canadian vocabulary and mind. So, yeah, go ahead and vote conservatives and be happy and show the world how compassionate Canadians are. Canada: dangerous for seals, whales and indigenous people

#86 SoggyShorts on 07.23.19 at 2:01 pm

#57 Nonplused on 07.23.19 at 2:43 am
OMG I have just come up with a epiphany that probably doesn’t belong here but I haven’t yet figured out where to put it.

The trend these days is to de-invite children to weddings, usually so you can have a fancier wedding at less cost. But the purpose of wedding ceremonies is to pass the sacrosanct act of marrying and an understanding of it on to children. Plus the kids do most of the dancing until the adults get drunk. The kids have the best time and provide the most fun.

Totally unrelated to this blog I think but I needed a place to type before I place it in other locations.
*******************************
Weddings(especially big ones) are pretty dumb imo. The average one costs about $30,000.
As a nest egg for a 20y old couple that’s a $600,000 loss(age 65 at 7% compounded)
In North America, the whole industry is a scam. Totally different prices for weddings as opposed to business parties for example. A catering company will simply charge 25-30% more for the exact same service just because it’s a wedding. Same for flowers, venues, chair rentals, all a huge scam.
Far superior is the destination wedding. The honeymoon is (or should be) an expense you are already going to have, so paying the hotel in Mexico an extra $500 for the ceremony isn’t a huge spend. The right place might not even charge since you are booking a bunch of guests.
For your out of town relatives/friends, it’s even better- let’s face it where you live sucks as a vacation so coming to your wedding at an all-inclusive resort is 100x better and probably doesn’t cost much more than a short flight+hotel in Canada.

As for kids needing to be exposed to more wedding so that they can be induced to continue the same traditions…I’m not convinced that works. The current crop of wedding-aged adults are having fewer marriages than ever and they went to them as kids.
I mean kids don’t really love weddings, they just love any excuse to stay up late and play with other kids. The actual wedding part (church, ceremony, vows, speeches) is boring AF for kids.

#87 Barb on 07.23.19 at 2:02 pm

Coincidence that Mr. Butts returned at the same time that SNC “got religion”?

#88 Jesse on 07.23.19 at 2:59 pm

#86 SoggyShorts on 07.23.19 at 2:01 pm
#57 Nonplused on 07.23.19 at 2:43 am

As for kids needing to be exposed to more wedding so that they can be induced to continue the same traditions…I’m not convinced that works. The current crop of wedding-aged adults are having fewer marriages than ever and they went to them as kids.

***************************************

The trend of less marriages (and babies) among millennial’s (my generation), in favor of hook-up culture (even though less people are having sex among 18 – 30 year olds than ever before), will be the nail in the coffin for Canada as we know it.

Demographics are destiny.

Mass immigration will be needed to keep the economy and stock market going, and help pay back bonds in order to fund the Boomer’s retirement. At least boomer’s have families to keep them company in their old age. Millennial’s will have an lonely shoebox apartment with a box of opiods to help them get through their old age.

#89 SunDays on 07.23.19 at 3:01 pm

#76 Shawn Allen on 07.23.19 at 10:18 am

Agreed that the delinquencies figures are a lagging indicator. But that does not mean they should never be looked at or that the publisher should not keep them up to date or that they should not be questioned when they look absurdly low.

Scott Terrio, consumer insolvency expert in Toronto, has the answer for you:
“Almost every single homeowner that files either a bankruptcy or a proposal with us is current on their mortgage. Almost always.”

https://twitter.com/ScottTerrioHMA/status/876841282219495424

#90 JB on 07.23.19 at 3:24 pm

#66 dharma bum on 07.23.19 at 7:28 am

#55 Smoking Man

After 60 it’s a fast track down hill.
——————————————————————–

So true.

Funny how it just kinda sneaks up on you.

Everything seems to be going along just fine. Then, one by one, shit starts falling apart.

As you tackle one issue, another pops up. Then another, then another.

Taking care of yourself after 60 is like a game of whack-a-mole!

So, live it up while you can all you middle-agers.

The end is nigh.
……………………………..
Oh how he may worship phallic symbols in his old age and dream of yesteryear.

#91 Reddy on 07.23.19 at 3:27 pm

Wrt steves question re: market value, i have been invokved with a similar problem / resolve.

The vendor put the ad on Kijiji daily, for a couple of weeks accepting all offers until a given date (about twonweeks away). On that date the winning bid was supposed to be notified.

Our bid was really high and clean. Guess what? They sold to a family member. My guess is that they used kijiji and responses from kijiji to determine a fair price to sell to family member…

#92 Tony on 07.23.19 at 4:37 pm

The only one Jason Kenney is kidding is himself. Getting rid of the stress test wouldn’t make one iota of difference for Alberta real estate.

#93 blueberry bear on 07.24.19 at 1:52 am

#13 yorkville renter on 07.22.19 at 6:28 pm
“a deep hole with a smoldering fuselage sticking out of it. ”

… I read as I board my flight to Europe.

—–

Serendipity, comment #13. Reading GT is like reading the classifieds, get the pace of the nation.

#94 Ace on 07.24.19 at 11:52 am

Trashing the stress test will temporarily prop the market up again (maybe for a season or two) then it will go right back to where it’s been headed the last two years which is down and flat. Near everyone who wants to get a mortgage right now can do so, it’s easy to find a broker (they want your business btw) offering an “alternative” method of getting you into the market. You’re right they realtors are desperate to some how get that income back they’ve become so accustom to these last few years.