Spotified

It’s Friday. In July. So why is there still news happening?

Here are some things worth noting. One or two are scary.

DOWN SHE GOES
For the first time since it came into effect, the stress test rate has fallen. But don’t get too excited – the decline is from 5.34% to 5.19%, so new buyers must still prove they can pay mortgages at almost twice the actual street cost. Some people think this is extreme. Others believe it’s critical to cool off the housing market. Realtors and mortgage dudes hate it. Sales are piteous. Lending is at 25-year lows.

As broker-blogger Rob McLister points out, the change means a buyer with a $100,000 income and a 5% downpayment can afford $5,900 more house. With 20% down, it’s $8,300 more. So, yes, this is minimal, inconsequential and unlikely to fill the streets with wild-eyed moisters.

Some think the stress test will end after the October election. They will be disappointed.

$    $     $

HACK? WHAT HACK?
On the morning of July 8th, at 9:08, I walked into a branch of the TD Bank at ask that a $119.88 direct debit to my chequing account in the name of Spotify be reversed. I caught it a couple of hours earlier when checking to see if Bandit’s social media Influencer payment had arrived. Neither the pooch nor I subscribe to Spotify, which is apparently filled with drug-addled Millennial music.

The interesting part: that morning I was in the tiny seaside town of Lunenburg, NS, in a spec of a bank populated with friendly people and dominated by a model of a big schooner. The guy next to me arrived at 9:09 am, to complain that his account had been debited in error. For $119.88. By Spotify.

“Well,” the tellers said to each other, “this is gonna be one busy day.”

The hit was reversed the next day, after my debit card was shredded and replaced. Since then, as you may have noticed, there have been sporadic media reports on the $119.88-Spotify caper across the country. The music streaming company says it had nothing to do with it, which is credible since the people hit were not its customers. They were all TD clients.

The bank, for its part denies any data breach and says “a very limited number” of clients experienced “fraudulent activity incurring unauthorized charges from a single merchant.” However, Spotify states no money went to it – so it sure smells like a hack of the Canadian debit system, specifically as it relates to one bank.

Go look at your account. Now.

$     $     $

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ (EXCEPT YOUR VOTE)
Is there an election coming?

You betcha. And the Trudeau Libs are out to help “hard-working middle-class families and the parents working hard to join the middle class” as opposed to all the other people who do nothing. So this week Ottawa announced yet more money will be shovelled to parents in the form of enhanced Canada Child Benefit payments. That’s now $6,639 per kid under six and $5,602 for those up to age 17.

The net effect of this is staggering. The annual payments will total $24 billion, with money flowing to 3.7 million people. As mentioned here before (and confirmed by the prime minister) the CCB helps remove 40% of Canadians as net contributors to the national coffers. Four in ten families now collect more in payments than they remit in taxes. The tax-free money for having children need not to be spent on kid stuff, either. Most of it likely ends up feeding a mortgage. What an odd country.

$     $     $

IS THAT A GUN IN YOUR POCKET?
It’s pretty harrowing being an Albertan woman, according to that province’s financial giant, ATB. The company’s research arm said this week that females “feel less confident and are more risk averse” when it comes to investing than men. And the dudes are cocksure, too. “Men surveyed were twice as likely to say they had more clout in financial decisions with or without consulting their partner.”

Both men and women claim too much debt is holding them back (Albertans carry far more than the average beaver), but that the guys worry far less about it. So, machismo is alive and well in Jason Kenney Land.

But there’s also this: a stunning 73% of Albertans (both sexes) say they have “inexperienced investor knowledge.” Four in ten think the stock market is a casino, and almost 100% of people would choose “moderate” or “low/very low” as their risk preference. “Women are 1.6 times more likely to see themselves as having low/very low risk tolerance.”

The Venus-Mars split is not just a prairie thing, of course. It’s embedded in our culture. Wrongly. Go to any assisted-living facility or retirement home and do a headcount. Yup, mostly babes. They live longer and need more money. But in a low-yield, low-rate world, there are no high-yield, low-risk investments.

We need tougher women, obviously. So next time, bring your daughter.

90 comments ↓

#1 Dolce Vita on 07.19.19 at 4:46 pm

StatCan May 2019 Retail Trade Sales Theme Song:

“Oops!… I did it again.”

April 2019 –> May 2019 “Tale of 2 Cities” Retail Trade Sales Numbers:

Canada, Seasonally Adjusted -46,185 Million
Canada, Unadjusted +6,873 Billion

How did StatCan masseuse +6,873 Billion into -46,185 Million? On top of that, they CHANGED the prior report April numbers in the May report (same as they did in the last GDP Report):

April Seasonally Adjusted difference between April & May Reports = -12,218 Million

So the SUPPOSED -$46.2 Million drop in Seasonally Adjusted Retail Trade Sales, well -$12.2 Million of that by going back and changing the numbers.

——————————————————-

Detailed Data:

Retail Trade Sales by Industry Sector, NAICS, where Seasonally Adjusted shows that Canadians STARTED EATING LESS in May 2019 (and DRANK LESS Beer and Wine too – hard to believe):

https://i.imgur.com/DRFWlYd.jpg

Retail Trades Sales by Province (where supposedly sales decreased in 8 Provinces except in vote rich ON and PQ, big supposed drop in AB):

https://i.imgur.com/NawyLPA.jpg

Here is the Retail Trade Sales chart to May 2019:

https://i.imgur.com/eB3hXRV.png

Draw your own conclusions from the above (gerrymandering if you were to ask me).

Source data (slice & dice StatCan data as I did on your own):

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000801

——————————————————-

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia.

#2 Syphilis captial of canuckistan on 07.19.19 at 4:46 pm

Cowboy country……

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-declares-provincewide-syphilis-outbreak-amid-surge-across/

Rat free since confederation.

#3 The Wet One on 07.19.19 at 4:47 pm

So…

You don’t listen to any music at all do you?

” which is apparently filled with drug-addled Millennial music.”

Errr…

Pretty sure the music of your youth, from several eons ago based on the above line, is on Spotify too.

Honestly.

You’re making a mockery of yourself with that line there my friend. And I’m far closer in age to you than any Millenial.

C’mon man, try harder.

Sheesh.

If you take everything written on this blog literally, I pity you. – Garth

#4 TurnerNation on 07.19.19 at 4:49 pm

The narrative I choose to believe is that a goal lies in bankrupting USA and Canada as giant welfare states. UN agenda. Like magic people arrive.

Prove me wrong. Add free health care (paid here) and welfare to start and no wonder…can’t blame these folks . Professionals.

“The arrival of the Congolese refugees — at a rate of 10 a day for 10 days in mid-June — was not expected by Vive. The nonprofit primarily serves as a temporary shelter for asylum seekers who intend to move on to Canada. ”

https://buffalonews.com/2019/07/08/vive-and-asylum-seekers-overwhelmed-by-generosity-and-pizza/

#5 Ustabe on 07.19.19 at 4:50 pm

I have found that most often folks who maintain that they are surrounded by idiots have the issue stemming from themselves.

Side ribs are ten fold better than back ribs in the smoker.

#6 Peter on 07.19.19 at 4:51 pm

“But in a low-yield, low-rate world, there are no high-yield, low-risk investments”.
Well.. the dividend yield on investment grade perpetual preferred and many rate reset preferred shares issued by Canadian banks, insurers & utilities is well north of 5% these days.

#7 kommykim on 07.19.19 at 5:01 pm

I rolled my eyes after reading the CBC headline: “Mortgage stress test rules get more lenient for first time”. Then they rolled some more when I realized that there were no actual changes to the rules themselves at all. Gee, a formula outputs different numbers when given different input parameters. Talk about click bait.

#8 David on 07.19.19 at 5:02 pm

Just checked my TR Canada Trust account and Bandit’s payment hasn’t been charged to me. Yet.

#9 Investx on 07.19.19 at 5:04 pm

Men and women are different.

Shocker!

#10 Dogman01 on 07.19.19 at 5:09 pm

Things don’t seem to make sense; I drive in North Calgary today and I see massive new construction and new neighborhoods, a lot of units in progress or for sale ; who are these new home buyers, is there a spike in Calgary population to merit this?
Prices are $300K+ for an Apartment suite in a wood frame four story. + Condo fees; in a city where $380 will get you a decent smaller single family house. (land lawn etc.)
Why would you choose an apartment condo at those prices?

#11 joblo on 07.19.19 at 5:12 pm

Lieberals plan, continue to screw stupid taxpayers….
buy votes from those with kids then these kids can inherit Kanada’s debt, sounds about right.

#12 Robbie on 07.19.19 at 5:27 pm

#3 “the Wet One”
You need to work on understanding humour!

#13 Dolce Vita on 07.19.19 at 5:30 pm

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part I

4.0 million (2016 est.) living alone get $0 billion.

3.7 million (2019 est.) with kids get $24 billion.

-Trudeau Liberal Math.

…94 days to go.

———————————

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part II

$10 MM for al Qaeda Khadr.
$600 MM for our digital Luddite Cdn. MSM.
$700 MM for foreign reproductive rights.

Add to the list:

$900 MM to settle sexual misconduct lawsuits against Canadian Armed Forces.

What next?

Only altruistic College Kid, Frat Boy Trudeau knows. “Mistakes were made” Justin says today. Today, Pierre in heaven said that about December 25, 1971.

Justin and his ilk need to go once and for all. Rebuild my Lib Party to what it once was before Harper came along.

#14 paulo on 07.19.19 at 5:55 pm

here is a possible add on to the scary list:

There are reports that Iraq late this afternoon may have grabbed at least one
British flagged oil tanker in the strait, and possibly a second British owned tanker flying a flag of convenience.

If correct the S##T will hit the fan shortly in the region

#15 FreeBird on 07.19.19 at 5:55 pm

I guess I’m in the minority but maybe it comes with being a small biz owner and raised by parents who were. I try to push retiring friends married and single to sell their house if they own and rent and stay avoid TNL/[email protected] selling GICs so they don’t end up living on tuna and prunes watching reruns on the shared TV. One listened and is nicely set up to NOT age in place but travel until they can’t minus the tuna (prunes are a given when older.)

#16 Dogman01 on 07.19.19 at 6:01 pm

#4 TurnerNation on 07.19.19 at 4:49 pm
The narrative I choose to believe…

It is natural for the human mind to try and create structures and purpose so all the information make sense, create a pattern; I glean the trend-patterns occurring now:

Globalism -Immigration
Lower standard of living for the next generation. (not discussed much …yet)
Reduced personal autonomy via taxation, with greater government dependence.
Surveillance and control via Social media and technology.
Media obsession with gender orientation
Climate Change a primary accelerator for social change

#17 NorthOf49 on 07.19.19 at 6:10 pm

“Realtors and mortgage dudes hate it. Sales are piteous. Lending is at 25-year lows.”

Yup, speaking to an investment advisor buddy (not mine) says his real estate broker pal in the Hamilton-Burlington area said 2019 is turning into his “worst year ever” for sales in the last 20 years.

My neighbour worked as a senior mortgage approver for one of the big banks. He did BIG mortgages for NHL players and the like. He’s just been transferred over to auto dealership loans cuz the big mortgage biz ain’t what it used to be.

Lots of fat million dollar sale properties sitting idle over here in Ancaster. The spec flippers appear to be unloading and running for the hills. Someone should have told them it’s still Hamilton, regardless of how many Teslas there are around.

#18 Cici on 07.19.19 at 6:14 pm

Yes, I believe the Canadian banking system is in need of much greater cyber security.

Kudos to Desjardins for at least stepping forward and taking responsibilty. That cost them a lot in terms of credibility and business, but it was absolutely the responsible thing to do, especially in the long run.

So T.D is trying to save face by bawlking and downplaying the situation? That could cost them even more if a breach is at some point fully exposed.

I think our banks need get together on this one as fast as possible, and get the lawmakers on their side too for quicker, swifter and tougher law enforcement in such situations.

#19 Yukon Elvis on 07.19.19 at 6:33 pm

Do check your TD account…..My daughter had bill payment taken from her account which definitely was not hers. Money was promptly refunded and new debit card issued. TD told her that her computer was hacked but I am calling bs. I think Td’s computer was hacked.

#20 Ponies Pilatus on 07.19.19 at 6:35 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 07.19.19 at 5:30 pm
MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part I

4.0 million (2016 est.) living alone get $0 billion.

3.7 million (2019 est.) with kids get $24 billion.

-Trudeau Liberal Math.

…94 days to go.

———————————

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part II

$10 MM for al Qaeda Khadr.
$600 MM for our digital Luddite Cdn. MSM.
$700 MM for foreign reproductive rights.

Add to the list:

$900 MM to settle sexual misconduct lawsuits against Canadian Armed Forces.

What next?

Only altruistic College Kid, Frat Boy Trudeau knows. “Mistakes were made” Justin says today. Today, Pierre in heaven said that about December 25, 1971.

Justin and his ilk need to go once and for all. Rebuild my Lib Party to what it once was before Harper came along.
————-
Yearning for the good old days.
Ain’t it always seem to go that you don’t know what you’ve go ’till it’s gone.
They paved paradise which caused global warming and we are now on the highway to hell.
And the chicks are suing now for payment.

#21 Shawn Allen on 07.19.19 at 6:37 pm

Laurentian Bank

An era is about to end at the Laurentian Bank with customers no longer having access to teller services as of Monday in almost all of its branches.

*************************************
That’s interesting…

Are tellers simply no longer needed or is this bank particularly desperate to cut costs?

I wonder if we will see this bank sold to a larger one in the next year or so.

#22 Rargary on 07.19.19 at 6:45 pm

#10 Dogman01 on 07.19.19 at 5:09 pm

Things don’t seem to make sense; I drive in North Calgary today and I see massive new construction and new neighborhoods, a lot of units in progress or for sale ; who are these new home buyers, is there a spike in Calgary population to merit this?
Prices are $300K+ for an Apartment suite in a wood frame four story. + Condo fees; in a city where $380 will get you a decent smaller single family house. (land lawn etc.)
Why would you choose an apartment condo at those prices?
……………………………………
I’m a high risk investing female Calgarian. Anomolies are everywhere. Agreed about the condo thang.. the NW is so overpriced here. And they have the most congested traffic too. No thx!
And the people buying are the ones who have stuck around suffering out the bleak economy here.
Back at the ranch, if Calgary’s population maintains its current rate of growth, we will surpass Montreal’s population.
People are flocking here still… Pipeline dreams? Affordable homes? Best minimum wages? Beautiful mountains?
Need I say more? Giddyup

#23 Nonplused on 07.19.19 at 6:53 pm

I wonder if they could get around the stress test by offering 25 to 30 year fixed rate mortgages like they do in the US? If the mortgage is amortized such that it will be paid off with no possibility of a rate adjustment then I would think a stress test would be unnecessary.

But anyway the stress test is in my opinion another example of how we humans think we have much more line of sight on the future than we do. For example stress testing applicants at 5.19% seems like a safe enough number given where rates are now and the history of rates over the last 10-15 years, but what about job loss, divorce, disability, recession, prices falling, war with Iran & North Korea or whoever is next on the list, the impending implosion of the US shale oil industry, automation, and a whole host of other personal disasters that could affect a person’s ability to renew? It would be interesting to see how many people in the past have actually been denied refinancing based on rate changes as compared to other factors affecting income. But I’m too lazy to do the research, if the data is even available.

So, the stress test, like so many other risk management measures such as VAR and stop loss orders are just window dressing measures that don’t really affect risk outcomes by that much.

For example let’s look at stop loss orders, a popular trading strategy with many active traders. The idea is you buy something and simultaneously enter an order that the computer is to sell the stop if it goes below a certain level, thus limiting the potential loss in theory. But what if the stock goes “no bid”? The computer doesn’t know what to do, it will hit the first bid that comes up, which could be way below the original stop order. Stop orders depend on an assumed amount of liquidity. That liquidity these days is usually provided by computers that are programmed to “spoof bid” and “run stops”. It’s how they make their money. Another problem with stop orders is that they assume the trader is done trading once he’s closed out. In practice, the trader waits until he has built back up his confidence and then he places another order and another stop. So he can stop himself out all the way to zero if he doesn’t get the trend right.

VAR is another problematic measure. The idea being that using various magical statistical formulas one can measure the largest expected negative move in a portfolio of exposures over a certain time frame, often one day. If the VAR is too high, you reduce your positions thus never exceeding your daily exposure. The main problem with this strategy is again it assumes liquidity such that you can exit your positions at will. When the SHTF this is often not the case and you can experience many days of VAR losses in a row before you finally get out of the position. This is especially true in smaller markets like natural gas, where the very act of trying to reduce a position can lead to blood in the water and the market going “no bid”.

Risk management is an “art” as much as it is a “science”. And as they like to say over at the zero, “On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero”.

This is why a balanced portfolio beats out most other trading strategies over the long run. It adheres to the adage “never put all your eggs in one basket”. It in essence attempts to be naturally hedged, so if one position goes bad hopefully other positions are not affected. But not even a balanced portfolio is immune to the worst case scenario. But in that case, we are probably all screwed so there isn’t much you can do.

But take heart! Even in the worst case scenario short of nuclear war the rivers will still run and the trees will still grow so we will just start over. Money isn’t real so don’t fret over it too much. It is just accounting slips. Monopoly is one of the best games ever invented to teach this proposition. Anyone who is successful at Monopoly knows it is better to have a monopoly with hotels on it than a great big pile of cash. The cash always migrates to the guy that has the best monopoly. Garth has consistently reinforced this concept himself when he advises people to be fully invested rather than sitting in cash or GIC’s. Cash is now the full equivalent of gold, the central banks have managed to actually pull it off. It pays no dividends or interest, but yet has transnational value. In years past banks had to pay interest on cash in order to attract deposits but this is no longer, now account fees render deposits negative for most people, just like gold.

So get rid of that cash and build yourself a nice portfolio of monopolies, railroads and utilities.

#24 akashic record on 07.19.19 at 6:56 pm

We got hit on our personal credit card with close to 1K of charges within days from Facebook, the company I would not touch especially not with a profile, fake or real.

Maybe they were testing their new crypto. :)

#25 Nonplused on 07.19.19 at 7:03 pm

* I meant cash has transactional value, but the spell checker was right it also has transnational value at least some of it does.

#26 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.19.19 at 7:09 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 07.19.19 at 5:30 pm
MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part I

4.0 million (2016 est.) living alone get $0 billion.

3.7 million (2019 est.) with kids get $24 billion.

-Trudeau Liberal Math.

…94 days to go.

———————————

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part II

$10 MM for al Qaeda Khadr.
$600 MM for our digital Luddite Cdn. MSM.
$700 MM for foreign reproductive rights.

Add to the list:

$900 MM to settle sexual misconduct lawsuits against Canadian Armed Forces.

Justin and his ilk need to go once and for all. Rebuild my Lib Party to what it once was before Harper came along.
———–
Ain’t it always seem to go that you don’t know what you’ve got ’till it’s gone.
They paved paradise and that caused global warming and now we are on the highway to hell.
And the chicks are suing for backpay.

#27 akashic record on 07.19.19 at 7:09 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 07.19.19 at 5:30 pm

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part I

4.0 million (2016 est.) living alone get $0 billion.

3.7 million (2019 est.) with kids get $24 billion.

-Trudeau Liberal Math.

…94 days to go.

———————————

MONEY FOR NOTHIN’ Part II

$10 MM for al Qaeda Khadr.
$600 MM for our digital Luddite Cdn. MSM.
$700 MM for foreign reproductive rights.

Add to the list:

$900 MM to settle sexual misconduct lawsuits against Canadian Armed Forces.

What next?

Only altruistic College Kid, Frat Boy Trudeau knows. “Mistakes were made” Justin says today. Today, Pierre in heaven said that about December 25, 1971.

Justin and his ilk need to go once and for all. Rebuild my Lib Party to what it once was before Harper came along.

What’s next?

How about a sexual misconduct class-action suit against the party in majority on behalf of taxpayers?

The list proves that we were – let’s mince the words to pass the Garth-filter – “taken advantage” in a non-consensual act.

#28 NoName on 07.19.19 at 7:09 pm

I like that dog, probably my favorite brand of dogs.

Priest that merrid me and my wife had Dalmatian, I just made mistake one time to tell him that his dog is fat. Right then and there I was condemned to 9th circle. I am telling you this dogs, so you know what not to do.

As for my my CCB cheque I sat down with mi kids other day, and told them, children listen to me carefully, “apple doesn’t fol far from the tree”. Now they are ready to live long life of mediocrity like they parent do…

Could be worst, I guess…

#29 Shawn Allen on 07.19.19 at 7:12 pm

Need Fixed Rate Mortgages

#22 Nonplused on 07.19.19 at 6:53 pm
I wonder if they could get around the stress test by offering 25 to 30 year fixed rate mortgages like they do in the US? If the mortgage is amortized such that it will be paid off with no possibility of a rate adjustment then I would think a stress test would be unnecessary.

********************************
Exactly Right!! And in the U.S. those 30 year fixed rate mortgages are open for repayment for just a modest fee right from the start.

This is exactly the sort of thing Bank Governor Poloz talked about last month. The Canadian mortgage market has not innovated in decades as far as long term fixed rates.

But there has been some progress. I believe there are now some very decent 10 year fixed rates out there and these are open (per Bank Act) after 5 years. Ten years ago the ten years were absolutely outrageous. Now they are affordable. That’s progress. No need for a stress test when the renewal is ten years out. Applying a stress test to a ten year is simply dumb.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.19.19 at 7:19 pm

Venus-Mars
It’s a little more complicated than that these days.
The Kinks were ahead of their time with “Lola”

#31 Marco Rabinno on 07.19.19 at 7:20 pm

Our family of 3 has RRSP’s, TFSA’s, cash money $5 million in GIC’s at 3.25% to 3.75%, 5,6, 7 years in various credit unions and trust companies. They are all CDIC, DICO, other deposit insured.

We don’t need alot to live on, 0.65% per year and our taxes are not more than 20% so we are okay. We have no debt and that is the key to not living on tuna and prunes. By the way central banks pulling it off is still not a sure thing. We still could end up like Venezuela, U.S.S.R., Zimbabwe, Chile, Bolivia, Cuba, Argentina, Vietnam and many socialist states that failed.

#32 Banks on 07.19.19 at 7:23 pm

Its not the only bank under attack, because in one of my accounts there is too much money there, and in another bank my deposit from many days ago has not shown up.

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.19.19 at 7:34 pm

Was at the Liquor store today.
Second to last in a line-up of about 20.
Cashies yells: System is down. cash only.
About 15 in front of me cursed and returned their booze to the shelves.
I had cash.
Made my day.

#34 Telephone Calls on 07.19.19 at 7:41 pm

Just to make a call to the RBC in Toronto I have to hit my phone with 19 digits just to get in now. Three of them is a pin number. In order to call my local branch at another bank it has voice recognition technology, and am talking to a robot now, to get someone to answer the bloody phone.

#35 Shelly Oakes on 07.19.19 at 7:50 pm

The annual $24 billion in child tax benefits paid out is equivalent to 3.48% interest charged every year on the national Debt of Canada standing at $690 billion. So low interest rates are not saving Canada any money in interest payments. When are people going to learn that if they say they will save here they will spend it much more elsewhere.

Liberals and their purposed, skewed name changes, E.I. employment insurance, child tax benefit. People get government insurance benefits when they lose their job not when they are employed. Children don’t pay taxes for benefits. What a bunch of lies.

#36 Doug Petulia on 07.19.19 at 8:01 pm

Canada’s workers pension system is a tuna and prunes lifestyle for Canadian retirees, seniors.

Maximum C.P.P. is what $900 a month and taxable. Don’t mention OAS because it is only another $650 a month. Canadians working 40 years to get the maximum only gets $900 a month is a ripoff. This is only $22.50 per month for every full year 2,000 hours worked.

The maximum C.P.P. for a 40 years worker in Canada should be at least $3,000 a month or make it $2,000 a month that is not taxable. If you worked only 20 years it should be maximum $1,500 a month taxable, 25 to 30 years $2,250 to $2,500 a month maximum.

Don’t mention GIS which is basically welfare for seniors that did not work 40 years full time in Canada.

#37 Long-Time Lurker on 07.19.19 at 8:15 pm

#24 yvrguy on 07.18.19 at 6:11 pm
What’s your take Garth?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/

How you will prepare for the coming shift?

>Ray Dalio gives an explanation for government bond buy-backs in that article. It’s basically for stabilization.

Dalio’s not the only big name person who’s thinking what he’s thinking. I’ve read two others.

#38 Adrian on 07.19.19 at 8:17 pm

“Four in ten families now collect more in payments than they remit in taxes.”

You need to stop with this. Are you trying to create resentment towards the poor?

By the Fraser Institute numbers you yourself have used, the bottom 40% earn 14.4% of TOTAL pre-tax income in Canada. But you begrudge them receiving help? And you’re against raising the minimum wage.

It seems more like you just want to keep the working poor desperate and compliant.

#39 acdel on 07.19.19 at 8:25 pm

Interesting Blog Garth; down she goes could not escape my mind of the recent article that Rex wrote. As usual, your choice, your blog of posting but your blog has similarities of how crazy the western world has become.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-b-c-groin-waxing-case-is-a-mockery-of-human-rights#comments-area

#40 Gender Studies on 07.19.19 at 8:38 pm

#29 Ponzius Pilatus

I don’t think the Kinks were ahead of their time. This sort of thing goes back to ancient Greece. People have always had a wide range of self expression when not oppressed. Even though I am straight as a ruler, I do not fear it, it’s never made any difference before why should it in the future?

However I am not keen on biological males playing women’s sports. I do think that is a real threat to women and also unnecessary because anyone can play “men’s” sports, including biological females, so everyone has a place to compete already. Some of the soccer teams my son plays against from smaller clubs put their best “girls” on the “boys” team if they don’t have a “girls” team to put them on. There are, so far as I know, no rules against this anywhere. And most of those girls are pretty kick-ass in the lower tiers, but they wouldn’t be able to compete against the boys in tier 1.

Transgenderism wil be the end of paid women’s sports, whether professional or scholarship based.

I bet Garth deletes this post because I offended the 0.001% of readers that happens to be a transgender hoping to get a scholarship as a woman in track and field. Such is how the discourse has gotten. And don’t get me wrong, I have no thing against anyone in the LGTBQ+ community, I believe in live and let live. But if women are to have a protected class of sports, then it needs to be protected. If it is not to be protected, it should be eliminated and they can all play with the boys. I think there is a reason that that is not the case already.

#41 acdel on 07.19.19 at 8:44 pm

Ok, one more, Conrad has a point.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-canada-needs-to-compete-heres-how-we-can-win#comments-area

#42 Shawn Allen on 07.19.19 at 9:18 pm

When Only Paper Cash Works

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.19.19 at 7:34 pm said:

Was at the Liquor store today.
Second to last in a line-up of about 20.
Cashies yells: System is down. cash only.
About 15 in front of me cursed and returned their booze to the shelves.
I had cash.
Made my day.

******************************
Savour the moment as it is increasingly rare for the payments system to go down.

Interesting too about 20 people lined up.

That’s what i see in Edmonton. Lineups of people buying tons of things all the time.

Stats Can says retail sales were down a tiny amount in May. But as Dolce said it was seasonally adjusted and subject to other errors and also worse than average weather. It will take another month of declining data at least to convince me that people are not still buying apace.

As investors we benefit from all this buying. Someone here said a few times “own the means of production that the masses consume”. Yes indeed. I love lineups when I own shares.

Buy shares in Costco and then go and enjoy the lineups. It’s heaven.

#43 G Gree on 07.19.19 at 9:50 pm

Identical fraudulent charges happened to me on July 5 – 2x. TD reversed the charges on July 8. I almost never use the debit card in question (last use was 6 weeks prior) so it sure looks like a data breach to me

#44 IHCTD9 on 07.19.19 at 10:00 pm

#37 Adrian on 07.19.19 at 8:17 pm
“Four in ten families now collect more in payments than they remit in taxes.”

You need to stop with this. Are you trying to create resentment towards the poor?

By the Fraser Institute numbers you yourself have used, the bottom 40% earn 14.4% of TOTAL pre-tax income in Canada. But you begrudge them receiving help? And you’re against raising the minimum wage.

It seems more like you just want to keep the working poor desperate and compliant
———

Living under a rock? I’m not poor at all, Ms. IH and I paid about 5k in income taxes last year with no small help from Trudeau’s CCB (which is what Mr. T was referencing).

If your poor peeps have no kids, Trudeau’s plans do diddly squat to help them.

If Trudeau gets in again, looks like I’ll be paying even less. At least Canadian Conservatives (who have more kids) will have one thing to thank our bird brained dunce cap sporting douchebag PM for.

#45 Jesse Farrina on 07.19.19 at 10:17 pm

I work for minimum wage, $14 an hour in Ontario here my wife works for minimum wage. I work full-time 60 hours a week and my wife works 22 hours a week part-time and our gross income is $68,000 a year. I will be getting a 35 cents an hour raise for each year for the next 3 years starting on August 1st.

We have 2 kids and live in a 3 bedroom house in Pickering for $1,450 a month+utilities, we have only 1 car and after monthly auto payment, auto insurance, gas, auto maintenance etc., food, clothing, all other expenses for living and other stuff we are left with $1,300 a month which goes into savings.

We don’t need the $8,000 a year tax free for our 2 children one 2 and the second 3 years old we get from the government.

We paid $17,560 in income taxes, Canada Pension Plan, Employment Insurance, Ontario Health Premiums. I would rather have a larger yearly RRSP, TFSA contribution or a higher personal amount saving income taxes on our income. We are getting started on that next month putting our $20,000 in these.

People used to have family and friends that help out. My in-laws watch our children only 2 days a week when my wife works. This is the problem with society today. There is too much government programs and involvement in our lives.

This is a welfare program for kids and not working Canadians, families. Call it for what it is. It is pure dependency and not for temporary, safety net, help when a Canadians are in a bind.

#46 Childcare Costs on 07.19.19 at 11:19 pm

We both work.
We have a daughter in daycare.
Daycare is approx $10,500 per year. Nothing fancy, just a regular daycare.
Our $6K/year CCB goes directly to daycare costs, so we can both work to earn and pay taxes on an extra $60K per year.
Seems like a gov’t plan that makes sense to me….

#47 Spade on 07.19.19 at 11:20 pm

#10 Dogman01 on 07.19.19 at 5:09 pm

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A similar thing going on in Winnipeg – Condo projects are sprouting up and prices (to me) seem too high when compared to a decent single detached housing stock available.

If developers are building stuff, chances are there is demand. My guess is they are servicing the “less active” retired boomer segment. As they reverse their way down the property ladder, condo’s seem cheap, shiny, and new with none of the home ownership headaches, specifically yard work and snow shoveling.

Remember, there is no such thing as a Forever home.

#48 Steve French on 07.19.19 at 11:23 pm

I think Sir Garth’s-a-Lot might need to start tempering his ongoing disparagement of so-called “bullion lickers”.

My 5% portfolio holding in gold miner ETF fund GDX is playing a very nice buffering role in my balanced and diversified portfolio at the moment.

What say you about gold, Smoking Man?

Steve O.

#49 Al on 07.19.19 at 11:28 pm

How little do we need to make to get that 6.6k goodness? For additional spawn, does it just multiply? 20k for three kids? About time these kids were cash positive (if you don’t outsource the care), like the good old farming days..

#50 akashic record on 07.19.19 at 11:31 pm

#33 Telephone Calls on 07.19.19 at 7:41 pm

Just to make a call to the RBC in Toronto I have to hit my phone with 19 digits just to get in now. Three of them is a pin number. In order to call my local branch at another bank it has voice recognition technology, and am talking to a robot now, to get someone to answer the bloody phone.

You call the main number. Hit 0 a couple of times. If voice recognition comes up just say “I want to make a payment” or “lost card” for any question. You may have to keep repeating it, no matter what they ask or prompt you to do.

These efforts usually take you to a person. Then you just tell them what you are calling about.

If you are lucky your call won’t be transferred to an endless loop.

#51 IHCTD9 on 07.19.19 at 11:38 pm

#38 acdel on 07.19.19 at 8:25 pm
Interesting Blog Garth; down she goes could not escape my mind of the recent article that Rex wrote. As usual, your choice, your blog of posting but your blog has similarities of how crazy the western world has become.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-b-c-groin-waxing-case-is-a-mockery-of-human-rights#comments-area
——-

That’s a wowzer that one. I have to laugh though, this stuff is what you get when you let the progressive extremists run the legislature. It’ll get worse too, if these lawsuits are actually taken seriously, and I’ll laugh some more.

As #39 mentioned above, it won’t be too long before Women’s sports in Canada is totally taken over by “Men”. I can’t be the only one who finds this hilarious, no?

I feel bad for the female athletes, but they’d best find another line of work, or pack up and head for some other country where the voters still have brains that work. I’m serious, you can stick a fork in it, it’s done – the lefties are trapped by their own doctrine on this one. We already have some women’s sports with enough men competing that the women don’t even place.

To be crystal clear, I don’t give a flying **** what group wants what in Canada, I don’t pay enough taxes to give a rip. However, I will definitely be eating popcorn when the lefty progressives have to choose which of their previously protected groups gets booted to the curb.

This is a side show worth watching, you know it because the CBC is passing on it. The transgender activists are suing the lesbians, feminists, governments, insurance companies, sports teams, Doctors, Teachers, and everyone else under the sun for being transphobic.

Seriously, I’m rolling on the floor!

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.20.19 at 12:15 am

https://www.richmond-news.com/news/hundreds-of-pre-sale-richmond-condo-owners-left-hanging-by-developer-1.23890988
———
Only the beginning.
In the floodplain, formerly known as Richmond.

#53 Spade on 07.20.19 at 12:47 am

#30 Marco Rabinno on 07.19.19 at 7:20 pm
Our family of 3 has RRSP’s, TFSA’s, cash money $5 million in GIC’s at 3.25% to 3.75%, 5,6, 7 years in various credit unions and trust companies. They are all CDIC, DICO, other deposit insured.

We don’t need alot to live on, 0.65% per year and our taxes are not more than 20% so we are okay. We have no debt and that is the key to not living on tuna and prunes. By the way central banks pulling it off is still not a sure thing. We still could end up like Venezuela, U.S.S.R., Zimbabwe, Chile, Bolivia, Cuba, Argentina, Vietnam and many socialist states that failed.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
5 Million in GIC’s???? Do you even read this blog? The bank must love you.

In the chance that you are serious, get your money out of CU’s. Don’t trust CHIC. Ever. But i suppose the GIC guarantee gives you just 1% after inflation. That should cover the taxes and leave you with a bit left over.

#54 Grumpy on 07.20.19 at 2:32 am

“Buy yourself a nice townhome, get into the market, get your equity, over time hopefully your income appreciates, you pay your mortgage down a little and, three years from now, you make that jump,” she said. “You’re in the market, so your money is protected. You’re on the field. Then, when you want to make that next jump, you’ll be more comfortable”

This Squamish realtor needs to give her head a serious shake.

https://www.squamishchief.com/real-estate/squamish-is-partly-bucking-regional-real-estate-trend-1.23890852

#55 DON on 07.20.19 at 2:58 am

#97 Mattl on 07.19.19 at 11:29 am

#71 DON on 07.19.19 at 1:46 am
#50 Mattl on 07.18.19 at 8:53 pm

#32 Re: Mattl the Kelowna Realtor on 07.18.19 at 7:16 pm
d) $139,152

4.5% per year.

… Homes will go down here but you will miss the next buying opp just like you did the last, and the one before that, because you don’t understand the math. Hint: nothing is selling right now, dirt cheap mortages, tons of inventory and lots of deals to be made.
******************

What do you consider to be a deal in terms of income 4 times earnings or …7 ? And it doesn’t appear that the cheap mortgages will be going away any time soon (at least a year). Tons of inventory is not an incentive to buy but maybe a incentive to wait and see how things play out a bit more before jumping into the biggest financial purchase in a life time based on recency thinking. Why not wait a little longer? Not like prices are going up at the moment. Catching a wave or catching a falling knife.

————————————————————–

Don I was addressing the group of Kelowna posters that pop in here and tell us about the coming doom in this market. They lie about what’s actually happening here – most notably using MOM in place of YOY. This is a VERY seasonal market and MOM is a stupid metric to use and they know it (I think).

By all means wait as long as you want. These posters that are calling for doom missed an incredible buying opp in THIS market. Adjusted for inflation, homes here were essentially flat from 2008-2015. The boom came late, and was short. Homes were pretty affordable – I’d argue they still are but that’s debatable. You can get lake view, walk to beach, pool, 1acre lot, 20 mins from downtown for under 900K. About the cost of a basement walkout on a 2500 sqft lot in Maple Ridge. You can still get a starter home in West Kelowna for under 500K.

Believe it or not, lots of families have over 100K family income, so these prices are not super insane, especially at today’s interest rates. And rents here are ridiculous. So a ‘deal’ is relative to the situation of the buyer. Lots of us buy homes to live in for a long time, it is not about realizing the actual best price possible. We just bought a home we could afford loved – I truly couldn’t care less what it’s worth between now and when we decide to sell. What good or harm does it do me if it goes up or down by 20%?

Here is my main point…lots of folks have been waiting since 2008 and that strategy has not worked out very well. By all means try and time the market. Prices will continue to fall until they don’t, when it turns – whenever that is, could be 10 years – inventory will become tight and we will be in the next cycle. I have a very hard time believing that those that have been waiting since 2008 and missed the last bottom will be able to see the next one.
***************

Your logic is fleeting and based on what you think based on what you think you know.

How many first time home buyers are making over 100K.

Let’s say you are right, then why the slow sales and falling prices and lots of inventory on the market. Why are people not jumping in. As sales slow – so will building and other jobs that attributed to the 100K. The US bubble popped and sent prices backwards, what’s to say that someone who bought an over priced house in 2010 won’t be under water. No one knows how far south prices will go…but one thing is sure, prices are still trending downward.

It’s been trending downward for the last 18-24 months and prices are sticky as expectations are still based on recency bias. In Victoria houses are sitting on the market, one friend just bought and is facing a loss already. But the justification is oh well I love my house.

You believe that a reasonable affordable house in Kelowna is under 900K. How long exactly would it take to pay off that mortgage making the normal monthly payments (assuming the year over year boom increases have subsided). So if houses keep on increasing in value who is gonna buy them.

As for Kelowna, what jobs in the area support those price ranges? I have watched you comments over the last what 4 years and you are not letting the movie play out. As it increasingly appears the trend is still downward and affordability is an issue in just about every city in BC based on local wages but somehow it is different in Kelowna. As Vancouver falls there are less people cashing out and heading to Kelowna and Vancouver Island. Driving out to Sooke and beyond the ocean front is littered with stagnant for sale signs. All the signs are pointing towards a crisis and even bloomberg rates Canada as the next one to face a burst bubble. Chinese buyers are on the decrease in both Canada and the US. Now we are facing increases in private mortgage lending at an average interest rate of 9% (wasn’t that the missing piece of the puzzle that Canada was avoiding that was key in the US housing downturn). Now made in Canada. My point: The show ain’t over yet, so why are you saying it will never happen. It appears we are getting closer and closer on a monthly basis. To buy in Vic and Van you need to make at least 140K…and if you do most of your wages will go to service the mortgage. Again how many first time home buyers in their 20s and early 30s with families are making that much money early in their careers while trying to start a family and paying at least $1500 dollars a month per child daycare so the parents can go to work and afford an over priced particle board postal stamp.

There is no way to spin a downturn.

#56 Todd Scottsdale on 07.20.19 at 7:28 am

If governments and central banks were not using financial repression by basically cutting interest rates to the bone and printing money to buy their government bonds/debt, GIC’s would be such a terrible option. bonds always paid more than GIC’s and please don’t tell me nobody buys them for their rates, yields.

The whole risk now and black swan event is about investors chasing for yields in his distorted, manipulated market at higher and higher risk levels including currency risks, transaction costs.

The way I can see this happening over the last 25 years, the skewed statistical inflation numbers have no changed much between 1.5% to 3% but low interest rates have been cut over 75%.

I’m sorry to say but the whole system is rigged against saving money in general. The latest bad policy move by the Bank of Canada is buying more Canadian bonds, $500 million or so and when we do get an economic downturn, recession, another 30%+ current devaluation of a possible 50 cents Canadian dollar versus U.S. Poloz already did 30% in recent years.

This is cause most of our goods to cost alot more and we will still be told inflation is low. Did you see lately water, property taxes, insurance, electricity, gas etc. increases over the last 15 years.

We had the so called approaching Canadian peso back under Chretien, Martin Federal Liberals, 62 cents Canadian dollar to U.S. dollar.

Really after real inflation, currency devaluation, taxes, fees nobody is ahead in reality, some lose more and some lose less per year but we are are poorer in real terms.

#57 TurnerNation on 07.20.19 at 7:33 am

16 Dogman that’s some great gatekeeping there.
That 10 ppl a week spending 1000k USD on one way flight tickets to sneak into a country. Sure it just happens. Every week like clock work.
Name one area of the earth where we cannot grow food and live and building buildings sufficient for living due to climate.

The end time doomers want to restrict our travel and freedom. They forget the Marijuana companies have built millions of acres of indoor growing space. Not for food no we have more than enough. But for a psychotropic drug.
(What was that about controlling our minds again I forget)

#58 the Jaguar on 07.20.19 at 8:19 am

#53 Don.
Good and accurate comeback comment. BC interior and Van Island have always benefited from the influx of retirees, people buying vacation homes, etc. Jobs, not so much.

#59 IHCTD9 on 07.20.19 at 8:33 am

#45 Childcare Costs on 07.19.19 at 11:19 pm
We both work.
We have a daughter in daycare.
Daycare is approx $10,500 per year. Nothing fancy, just a regular daycare.
Our $6K/year CCB goes directly to daycare costs, so we can both work to earn and pay taxes on an extra $60K per year.
Seems like a gov’t plan that makes sense to me
———

It’s not sustainable. Only about 60% of Canada’s population actually has a job, and if only 60% of these are actually paying net taxes, where are the government revenues supposed to come from?

Meanwhile, the top 20% of earners in Canada are already paying 56% of all taxes. We know that once an individual hits about 60% total taxation, they start pushing back. Trudeau found this out a few years back when his new “tax on the rich” resulted in a drop in revenues. We’re not going to get much more out of these folks, and if we keep trying there is a great chance revenues will drop again.

All Canadian Citizens get the CCB – even if they don’t work (in fact they’d get more). I know of one Woman with 4 kids getting 50k net tax free between her ex and the CCB.

She has opted not to work…

#60 dharma bum on 07.20.19 at 9:29 am

#21 Rargary

People are flocking here still… Pipeline dreams? Affordable homes? Best minimum wages? Beautiful mountains?
Need I say more? Giddyup
——————————————————————-

Calgary is amazing.
Right now, it’s a bargain.
Beautiful houses for sale in really nice neighbourhoods for a mere fraction of what they would cost if they were in Toronto.
As far as I am concerned, the fact that Calgary is the gateway city to the most stunningly beautiful region of this otherwise pallid country – The Majestic Rocky Mountains – makes is a double bargain.
If you are not a wage slave, and you love the great outdoors (skiing, hiking, kayaking, hunting, climbing, etc.) it’s a fantastic place to be! And cheap, compared to Toronto!

#61 LP on 07.20.19 at 9:59 am

#49 akashic record on 07.19.19 at 11:31 pm

I recently got caught in another dimension between 2 different banks. I will be moving to a small town next month and require to pay my monthly rent by PAC (pre-authorized payment). Usually one would give the payee, my new landlord, a void cheque that he would take to his bank to set up the payments.

Apparently not so anymore. Landlord’s bank told him that I must do that at my bank. So off I go to my bank branch in the new town. They won’t do it even though I had all the banking information for the landlord who banks at a different bank, a branch of which is conveniently located across the intersection from my bank branch.

I crossed the intersection. I went inside. I swear I heard Rod Seiling’s voice telling me to run. I should have! Said branch tells me they won’t process the transaction.

Long story short…the next week I took my walker (which I use when I anticipate standing for a long time), went to the business teller and sat down on the walker in front of his wicket. I need help, I said, and I’m not leaving until this situation is fixed. Bless his little heart, with the help of the manager and after some 20 minutes, it appears as if on September 1st my landlord will get the funds due him. Here’s hoping!

#62 have a nice day on 07.20.19 at 10:43 am

extra dour in here this mornin’

I worry about you people.

#63 Smoking Man on 07.20.19 at 10:43 am

Steve French on 07.19.19 at 11:23 pm

I think Sir Garth’s-a-Lot might need to start tempering his ongoing disparagement of so-called “bullion lickers”.

My 5% portfolio holding in gold miner ETF fund GDX is playing a very nice buffering role in my balanced and diversified portfolio at the moment.

What say you about gold, Smoking Man?

Steve O.
…………

I may be a savage lush’ but I’m not stupid. I’m with Gartho on Gold and Bitcoin.

Forex is my game.

Where you been man?

#64 MF on 07.20.19 at 10:48 am

The usual whining and sulking on here.

We as a society want to incentivize family formation. That’s what the CCB is for.

How dare a mom stay home and be with her kids. She should be at work and the state, media, and peer group should raise the kids of course.

MF

#65 TurnerNation on 07.20.19 at 11:03 am

70th? The UN has its claws into this country.

The Opinion section of our national newspaper today is 10 pages long.
Three pages including cover is selling Veganism. With many pictures of house pets…which we don’t eat here.
–Another large chunk of text for Right Guilt: how Kanada needs to take in more people migrating across the border. How we have it so good here. (How’d that happen it must have been magic? )
Because. ..Trump USA not doing enough.
Next page is Trump bashing bad orange man with photo of four blonde Trump supporters.
Ohh those evil blondes!! Lol. Surely our main problem.

Add another page for some Soviet mention (our Eternal Enemy — you know the ones we share space station with.
And another piece crowing about going to the moon 5 decades ago…but never again.
Hey they invented the fax machine probably 50 years ago…let’s celebrate that.

#66 KD on 07.20.19 at 11:05 am

#53 Don
He will just say your jealous and a Kelowna hater, truth is a lot of the industry up there is local industry and when it slows down like in 90s it will be ugly.
There are very few good paying jobs outside of medical, teaching and govt positions and no one leaves those. When you talk to the locals the vast majority of them work in construction industry which cuts back to the bone at the first signs of slowdown.
Just watch the number of housing sales, Sendero Canyon development in Penticton keep an eye on it.

#67 millmech on 07.20.19 at 11:15 am

Was in response to #53 Don

#68 not 1st on 07.20.19 at 11:26 am

​Gets worse Garth. Project is now a perpetual money loser until the expansion is built which is never.

Trans Mountain posts $36 million loss to date

https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2019/7/trans-mountain-posts-36-million-loss-date/

#69 Oh Canada, I weep. on 07.20.19 at 11:42 am

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-alberta-panel-studying-foreign-funding-of-environmentalists-is-necessary

I want to know how much American money has flowed into Trudeau’s reelection activities? A forensic accounting is obviously necessary .

#70 NoName on 07.20.19 at 12:08 pm

Great news, yesterday in a mail CCB came in amount more than doubled, instead of receiving 11 per kid now we are getting 22.

And for those that think that daycare won’t get more expensive with newly increase in ccb, good luck with that.

Luckily for us our daycare provider cooks for us, so there is always home made meal in a fresh or leftover form for us.

Big CCB recipient look at those dishes and weep, also your self does you government subsidies day care does that for you.

As what SM would say FREE MARKET bitches*.

*Word bitches, is not used in derogatory or defining way, just funny way.

Top 2 after work, bottom 2 before work…

Kidney beans soup, baked sauerkraut bacon and left overs, green beans soup (obviously yellow were used) and stuffed peppers.

https://imgur.com/a/PQGvnwD

#71 BigBankTechie on 07.20.19 at 12:12 pm

Hey Garth,

You have the details on the Spotify payment issue a bit wrong. To my understanding, the fraudulent payments have all been charged to Visa debit cards which, until the last hop, use the same payment mechanism as Visa credit card transactions. The hack – assuming that’s what it is – is likely therefore not one to the debit system itself, but more likely is a standard card-holder not present type fraud where card details (name, number, expiry, CVV, home address etc) have been stolen in bulk.

That it’s all TD cards from the reports suggests TD is the most likely source but the fraudsters could also be targeting TD specifically due to some weakness in it’s automated fraud detection system for online payments not present in the systems used by other providers.

cheers,
BBT

#72 BillyBob on 07.20.19 at 12:15 pm

#64 MF on 07.20.19 at 10:48 am
The usual whining and sulking on here.

We as a society want to incentivize family formation. That’s what the CCB is for.

How dare a mom stay home and be with her kids. She should be at work and the state, media, and peer group should raise the kids of course.

MF

==================================

Praise God and pass the ammunition.

Of COURSE the CCB couldn’t be simply to pander to potential voters. Nothing like buying people with their own money.

You’re constantly going on about how how Canada is a seething mass of folks eager to arrive and thrive, why then is it necessary to pay them to have children?

#73 Smoking Man on 07.20.19 at 1:10 pm

TurnerNation on 07.20.19 at 11:03 am
70th? The UN has its claws into this country.

The Opinion section of our national newspaper today is 10 pages long.
Three pages including cover is selling Veganism. With many pictures of house pets…which we don’t eat here.
–Another large chunk of text for Right Guilt: how Kanada needs to take in more people migrating across the border. How we have it so good here. (How’d that happen it must have been magic? )
Because. ..Trump USA not doing enough.
Next page is Trump bashing bad orange man with photo of four blonde Trump supporters.
Ohh those evil blondes!! Lol. Surely our main problem.

Add another page for some Soviet mention (our Eternal Enemy — you know the ones we share space station with.
And another piece crowing about going to the moon 5 decades ago…but never again.
Hey they invented the fax machine probably 50 years ago…let’s celebrate that

…….

Claws? Canada has been swallowed in gulp. No saving it. Shear is no different than T2. Mad Max dosent stand a chance.

Get while you still can.

#74 islander on 07.20.19 at 1:52 pm

“Go look at your account. Now.”
Yes, that is one timely piece of advice. Thank you Garth!
Now for my tale of woe:

Initially I agreed with, myflightsearch.com, to buy a ticket online(for a family member) for $890 USD. When they notified my family member that the ticket was no longer available and offered a ticket at a much higher rate, the new offer was refused. (bait and switch?)
myflightsearch.com then sent my family member (addressed to me) the following text, “ as per our conversation and as agreed, we have cancelled your booking. Please be advised that your card has not been charged for this reservation.”
myflightsearch.com (after cancelling the ticket), then went ahead and debited my VISA for $2,455. USD/ $3,368 CAD.
This is for a ticket which was originally 890.USD and which was cancelled by the company!
VISA was able to have my money refunded, but I lost money on the exchange rate.

Buy at 2455.15 USD @ 1.3719 = $3,368.28
Sell at 2455.15 USD @ 1.283 = $3,150.04

My Flight Search, used a different exchange rate for the refund into CAD and I am now short $218.24.
There had been minimal change in the bank rate USD/CAD during the two days in question between buy and sell.
I consider this to be a fraudulent practice, but VISA just sees it as the cost of ‘doing business’ when dealing in foreign currencies.
In my opinion myflightsearch.com, defrauds customers by:
pretending to issue tickets, issuing false confirmations, cancelling nonexistent tickets, offering bogus higher rates, sending false texts and charging VISA customers accounts any price they choose (in my case almost 3 times the initial offer). They charge in USD, appear to convert at a rate of their own making and refund also at a rate of their own making. In my case they pocketed $218.24 CAD.

#75 Dina Santos on 07.20.19 at 2:12 pm

You want give incentive to create family formation, give tax deductions off or taxable income not welfare for kids like child tax benefit(CCB). Another major point nobody mentions is that child tax benefit is not taxable and also other welfare, social benefits are not taxable. This is teh real scam as well.

I am from Chile and know how this social programs and socialism creeps up and a little more and more and then gets to a point where it is a big financial mess. Look at the deficits Mcgunity, Wynee ran up Ontario’s debt by 200 billion dollars in 15 years and Trudeau Canada Liberals ran up almost $100 Billion debt in just 4 years.

The reason the left, Liberals, NDP etc. do this is because they want voters that can’t fend for themselves and are using lower income people are pawns. If they really wanted to help all Canadians with families and create more families, they would improve economic expansion and job growth and give incentives for businesses, employers to expand their companies and create jobs.

A big welfare state will always fail and we have many examples everyday about this happening. Notice how no major news media shows in depth or even shows everyday how Venezuela, once South America’s richest country is now economic disaster because of socialism and high in the pie promises that will never pan out. People are so uniformed and so uneducated about basic economics that they will always have to learn the difficult way which is financial pain.

#76 IHCTD9 on 07.20.19 at 2:44 pm

#73 BillyBob on 07.20.19 at 12:15 pm
#64 MF on 07.20.19 at 10:48 am
The usual whining and sulking on here.

We as a society want to incentivize family formation. That’s what the CCB is for.

How dare a mom stay home and be with her kids. She should be at work and the state, media, and peer group should raise the kids of course.

MF

==================================

Praise God and pass the ammunition.

Of COURSE the CCB couldn’t be simply to pander to potential voters. Nothing like buying people with their own money.

You’re constantly going on about how how Canada is a seething mass of folks eager to arrive and thrive, why then is it necessary to pay them to have children?
————-

Not to mention that paying people to have kids never works…

Also, plenty of respectable folks have been raised by two working parents. Having enough to get by sure beats the hell out of mixing the stress of barely paying the bills in with the responsibilities of parenthood. Once the kids hit 5 years old, they’re gone all day anyway.

Number 1/2 cause of divorce is money issues…

#77 Rick Evans on 07.20.19 at 3:08 pm

IHCTD9, why is the cost of living so high today? It is because governments are so in debt because of all these social programs, benefits paid out and they have to keep taxing consumers, businesses, citizens to death.

Also very low interest rates to help governments, speculators, financial institutions to lend out too much and borrow. High electricity and energy costs with coming carbon taxes etc. will just make things worse. It is the oldest trick in the book, raise everything that costs us to live sky high and then Liberals, NDP, leftists show they are helping the poorer of society and give peanuts called H.S.T. credit, CCB, welfare other social program benefits, GIS etc. We are all getting suckered.

#78 Ustabe on 07.20.19 at 3:36 pm

#62 have a nice day on 07.20.19 at 10:43 am

extra dour in here this mornin’

I worry about you people.

I gave up worrying, now I’m just thankful that my orbit doesn’t contain similar types of folks.

This little self selected group has, in the main, rejected reality and substituted one of their own making.

My orbit, btw, runs from fishing with and being a guest of Brandt Louie (they are just using me as a free guide…I can fish) to running the local kids program with the Streamkeepers. Old money, new money, no money. Old Stock, First Nations, new Canadians. Men, women. My hockey watching buddy is the son of one of the founders of Alaska Air. My other hockey watching bud is a carpenter.

Breadth and depth to my circle and at their worst they are a spa compared to the cesspool this place devolves into often.

#79 Barb on 07.20.19 at 3:50 pm

Anybody have a Westjet Mastercard?
Heard the following horror story from two acquaintances this week.

Both individuals had fraudulent charges (+$1,000 U.S.) on their cards, origin was California.
Something to do with trampolines.

And here’s where it got scary. The first fellow caught it when his monthly statement arrived/was viewed. So his mastercard’s fraudulent charges were reversed.

Unfortunately, the second fellow’s credit card is paid in full automatically from his account.

He didn’t notice the fraudulent activity until he checked. Reversing it was denied because cardholder hadn’t notified them within the 60 day notice period.

He admitted he was indeed on the hook for “over $2,000 in fraudulent purchases” on his card. How sad!

Westjet Mastercard holders, check your accounts!

#80 IHCTD9 on 07.20.19 at 4:07 pm

#75 Dina Santos on 07.20.19 at 2:12 pm
—-

Excellent comments Dina. I always love getting the perspective of one who has “been there, done that” first hand when it comes to socialism and other unworkable ideological dingbatism.

Rick, I agree that we’re headed for trouble on the spending/debt front, it has become a political taboo to even mention the idea of getting the countrys’ finances back into shape. Canadian voters won’t stand for it – political career over.

However, I quit hoping Canadians would come around years ago, and have adopted a lifestyle that allows me to care little about what shenanigans Ottawa is up to. All I have to do is pay enough attention to realize when it’s time to exit the loonie.

#81 Nonplused on 07.20.19 at 8:17 pm

#53 Spade

You have $5,000,000 in CDIC insured accounts? You would need accounts at 50 different institutions to do that. I suspect you do not have $5,000,000 or you would know that CDIC only covers $100,000 per individual per institution.

#82 Tim Harrison on 07.21.19 at 12:31 am

To Nonplused, the way I read Marco’s post is they have RRSP’s, TFSA’s, non-registered or cash accounts.

Each person, 3 in this case has a TFSA, RRSP, CDIC insured separately, $100,000 for cash GIC’s and DICO for RRSP’s, TFSA’s has no limit deposit insurance and $250,000 for cash GIC’s. They also specified other deposit insurance which could be other provincial deposit insurance like BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan has no deposit insurance. This is for each financial institution.

I know some of this stuff about depsit insurance because my cousin is a deposit, GIC broker and sells GIC’s available from across Canada getting the top rates. You can easily look at this by checking each province’s deposit insurance.

He told me that he has clients with several million dollars that want income from and wanted it spread over many financial institutions in Canada.

Also, insurance companies have similar deposit insurance too but I don’t know the amounts that will be covered.

#83 SoggyShorts on 07.21.19 at 12:53 am

#74 islander on 07.20.19 at 1:52 pm

Its probably not just the exchange rate since it’s a whopping 7% loss.
Almost every credit card charges 2.5% exchange rate fee each way.
The same thing happened to me after booking a family vacation and then finding it cheaper the next day- paid $25 rebooking fee but it actually cost me a couple hundred because of getting boned for 2.5% each way.
Now I only use my scotia passport infinite card for buying stuff in other currencies.
Not to sound like an ad but try it out- it’s one of I think 3 credit cards in Canada that doesn’t charge the 2.5% and the rather high $140 yearly fee is offset by getting about $300 in travel points for signing up (and you can use those fancy VIP lounges in the airport for free too)

#84 Jill Taylor on 07.21.19 at 1:54 pm

Hey IHCTD9, the real reason most voters are still not concerned or don’t care about deficits and the huge national debt and other huge government debt is the ridiculous interest rates cut from 8%-9% to 1% to 2.7% on government bond yields.

A 1% point increase would mean at least $45 billion a year in additional interest from all government debt. If we had just back to year 2000, we would have to be paying an additional $150 a year in extra year interest. This is since 5.6% to 6.4% government bond yields. This would kill off all these social programs and pet projects mainly pushed by Liberals, NDP, Greens etc. and our taxes would be at least 30% higher than today. The real financial pain would make most people to have to notice this huge problem.

#85 Tammy Shenfield on 07.21.19 at 2:09 pm

To Tim Harrison, I think you mean BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan has no limit deposit insurance meaning no set dollar amount like CDIC $100,000 or DICO $250,000, unlimited provincial deposit insurance not no deposit insurance you stated in your post.

#86 jess on 07.21.19 at 5:01 pm

5 Dina Santos on 07.20.19 at 2:12 pm

“A giant statue of Jesus Christ that looms over Lima is causing controversy in Peru because of its financing by the graft-tainted Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht and late ex-president Alan Garcia.

The 37-meter (121-foot) acrylic and concrete structure, which cost $800,000, is viewed by some as a symbol of corruption, giving rise to a local nickname ‘Christ of Theft.’ Thousands are demanding its removal.

===============
Bribery Division: Raids in Peru Target Former First Lady, Law Firms Linked to Odebrecht Pipeline

Prosecutors in Peru have raided the home of former first lady Nadine Heredia in a sweeping operation linked to alleged corruption connected to a massive gas pipeline constructed by the disgraced multinational Odebrecht.

The Heredia home was one of 26 properties targeted by anti-corruption forces probing corruption in the construction of the pipeline known as Gasoducto Sur, reported the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists‘ media partners at Convoca and other media outlets.

The raids, which were authorized by judge Juan Carlos Sánchez Balbuena, also zeroed in on the homes of two former ministers of energy and three prominent Peruvian law firms.
https://www.icij.org/investigations/bribery-division/bribery-division-raids-in-peru-target-former-first-lady-law-firms-linked-to-odebrecht-pipeline/

#87 baloney Sandwitch on 07.21.19 at 6:32 pm

I am OK with kids parents getting my tax dollars. Better than old farts whose reproductive days are over. Kids are expensive to raise and we need more of them to pay for our diapers and golf.

#88 Juan Martinez on 07.22.19 at 7:43 pm

If you want a big family then pay for it with your own my like my family did. What you think there is no consequences with all this debt and deficits adding in the tens of billions every year.

The reality is Canada is a nation of losers not savers, productive taxpayers like when we came in the 70’s. This will end badly. Look at where I was born, Puerto Rico, it is crap now that took decades to become that way.

#89 Brandon Hyman on 07.22.19 at 10:17 pm

Jaun, Puerto Rico is a real mess. I read somewhere that the real economy is terrible and the main thing that is keeping it all from collapsing is the social security payments that many retirees, seniors get from the U.S. government.

The fact that they use the U.S. dollar as their currency and are a territory of the U.S. is also very important to them keeping afloat.

#90 Tommy Douglas on 07.23.19 at 1:08 pm

Billy Bob liberals are the sulkers and whiners with all their protests and marches. Why don’t you guys go to work and pay taxes contribute something to society instead of living off the blood, sweat of others.