Bid & ask

By the standards of, say, Lethbridge or Timmins, it ain’t much. A 14-foot-wide, 130-year-old row house with a tiny courtyard, an unusable basement, no front yard, no driveway, no parking and a price tag of $1.1 million. But, it’s a mere slapshot from Yorkville Avenue, Bloor Street and all the chichi goings-on that bestow value upon a location. There aren’t many residences in this hood that come with actual dirt. And they seldom are available.

But $1.1 million was just a tease. The agent said it was an ‘aggressive’ value, set purposefully low to attract multiple offers. Besides the come-hither listing price, the seller and her agent said no offers would be considered prior to Friday, July 13th. That tactic, they thought, would certainly engender a bidding war through the blind-auction technique. Since no buyer would know what others were offering, all would be motivated to offer high, plunk down a $100,000 certified cheque with the bid, and (naturally) have no conditions. It’s a process that irks and disadvantages bidders. But it works.

Until now.

Despite being priced about a quarter million less than comparables within a few hundred feet, no offers materialized on Friday. No war. No sale.

So on Monday the owner cancelled the listing and re-listed for what she really wants: $1,350,000. The trouble now, of course, is that the old price is on the record – clear for any potential buyer to see. The property is tainted and may well sell for considerably less than the seller wants. Greed sometimes costs.

As in Vancouver, but less so, the Toronto real estate market is in trouble. Yes, realtors say sales were up in June, but from a low benchmark, with average prices barely pacing inflation and sitting below 2017 levels. This is remarkable because (a) Canada has just experienced the best job creation in more than 40 years, (b) income growth, corporate profits and financial markets have all been robust and, especially (c) mortgage rates have collapsed. The banks are giving away fivers at 2.8%. There’s two-year money around at 1.99%. You can sign up for 10 years at less than 3%. Normally deals like this would stir loins, kindle FOMO and engender endless house lust.

So, huh? What gives? Why would this listing go unsold, and Canada’s major markets descend into turgidity?

The mortgage stress test is one solid reason, since new buyers still have to crawl over a 5.34% hurdle to qualify for a home loan. Another is the sense that housing peaked, is in decline, and those who wait will buy more for less later. So far, that’s a winning strategy. But a bigger factor may be a standoff between buyers and sellers. Purchasers want to pay prices they think will prevail next year, and vendors want the same money as two years ago. As a result, sales languish and prices drift – despite a plunge in the cost of credit.

Well, what next?

In a couple of weeks US interest rates will go down as the Fed buckles to pressure from President Trump. This is extraordinary, given good economic growth, record low unemployment and stock markets hitting fresh highs. Why would the central bank throw gas on this conflagration?

The result will be inflation. That usually brings higher interest rates. So if you mix in a US-China trade deal and a presidential election, the odds of the Fed reversing course and hiking again are palpable. Meanwhile our central bankers are unlikely to follow the Fed down and, as this pathetic blog has suggested a few times, today’s mortgage rates are not a harbinger of better ones to come. This is it, baby. Especially if North America falls into a Trumpian wage-price spiral.

Of course, Canada has an election coming, too. In three months – with the potential to rock the political landscape. Currently the Cons lead the polls (36%) with the Libs at 29%, the Dippers with 15% and Liz’s Greens at 10%. Mad Max is nowhere. Liberals have run big deficits every year in office, despite record low rates and a growing economy. Government largess means four in ten families receive more money directly from Ottawa than they pay in taxes. Now a new report from the Institute of International Finance shows Canada is among the top three countries for ballooning its public debt in the past year. The fear is any rate cut will exacerbate that. Today’s debt is tomorrow’s taxes. Residential real estate is a prime target, now that so much net worth has been concentrated there. Just look at what BC’s doing. If the Cons win, look for leaner government. If there’s a Lib-Green coalition, look out.

What does all this have to do with a pricey row house in Yorkville?

Ch-ch-ch-changes, as Bowie said. Expect a lot in the next year. The housing market is far weaker than is being revealed. Changes to the economic, monetary and political environment will create even more uncertainty, dampening demand and widening the gulf between bid and ask. The row house story has one moral: buyers are wiser than you think.

132 comments ↓

#1 David Pylyp on 07.15.19 at 4:40 pm

SPOT ON !

“… mortgage stress test is one solid reason, since new buyers still have to crawl over a 5.34% hurdle to qualify for a home loan. Another is the sense that housing peaked, is in decline, and those who wait will buy more for less later. So far, that’s a winning strategy. But a bigger factor may be a standoff between buyers and sellers. Purchasers want to pay prices they think will prevail next year, and vendors want the same money as two years ago. As a result, sales languish and prices drift – despite a plunge in the cost of credit.”

CMHC Borrowings are to a MAX of one Million. After that the banks want more downpayment. Sales over a Million are languishing.

Have a great Summer!
Thank you.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#2 n1tro on 07.15.19 at 4:42 pm

My old manager recently sold his Oakville house for $1.6M. Had it list for $1.9M and it sat for months. Bought it originally for around $900K a few years back. Buyers were asian. Not sure if local or came in from yellow helicopter. Sweet gains right?

Alas, he sold the house because he’s getting a divorce. Wife was cheating on him. 2 teenaged children left in the wake. Talk about Ch-ch-ch-changes.

#3 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 4:50 pm

“Why would the central bank throw gas on this conflagration?”

Ah, let me guess: it’s an election year?

I’m just sayin’.

———————-

“turgidity”

Garth, you and Rex Murphy ought to start a Dead Poet’s Society.

#4 TurnerNation on 07.15.19 at 4:51 pm

I’ve just reviewed this weblog.
Big problem Buddy.
Too much T not enough E.

So keep drinking the water. (Killing us Softly)

Source: IE and BenefitsCanada

“A new metric, formulated by alternative data firm Indexia, measures the relative male- or female-dominated nature of language used by a company. The metric was built through a process of analyzing millions of direct quotations from both men and women, and then attributing a male- or female-leaning designation based on how many times a word was used by each gender.

Female-dominant language tends to be softer and more caring or conscientious, whereas male-dominant language can include patterns described as “macho,” noted a press release.

In using the metric to analyze discourse around public companies, Indexica found that across significant samples of text, female-dominant language tends to be used in conjunction with events and behaviours that correlate with higher environmental, social and governance rankings, while the opposite is true of male-dominant language”

#5 Cottingham a bargain on 07.15.19 at 4:53 pm

Anyone who thinks that the mortgage stress test is solid reason to hang a bearish argument for real estate prices on must be blind to the massive cabal of those who will continue to exert tidal wave pressure to have it eradicated.

Once gone, onwards and upwards we go

That is simply not logical. Nor will that occur. Go hump elsewhere. – Garth

#6 Chad on 07.15.19 at 4:53 pm

Looks like the tide is turning. I’m looking to sell my condo i bought in 2011, hopefully get a good amount of cash and stash my tfsa.

#7 Tater on 07.15.19 at 4:55 pm

Yep. And as prices stagnate, cost of carry starts to become an issue. The specs with the private mortgages could make a decent return even paying an 8% rate, when prices were going up 10% or 15% per year. But with prices flat, it gets a lot harder. And, anecdotally, you can see the specs have stepped back.

I see plenty of places out there that would have been snapped up in ’15, ’16 or ’17 that are languishing. This fall should be interesting and next spring even more so.

#8 TalkingPie on 07.15.19 at 4:58 pm

It’s interesting that the market in Toronto is continuing to correct. At the same time, this post reminds me that real estate markets are local; looking at listings in my off-island Montreal suburb, I get the distinct impression that prices have risen in Canada’s second largest city since I bought a year ago.

According to the local real estate critters, prices for single family houses on the island increased 8% YOY, to an admittedly still reasonable $352,250. Supply is tightening while sales are increasing.

Real estate mouth pieces, local realtors, and a family friend who’s the vice principal of a local private English school all tell me that there’s an increase of Chinese nationals on the island.

A useful comment until the yellow-peril crap you added. – Garth

#9 Lee on 07.15.19 at 5:08 pm

The Last Campaign Research poll July 12, 2019 has it 33/32 for the Liberals. Keeps bobbing back and forth. The big key here is JT has tied up Quebec about 50/10. That pretty much puts a fork in Scheer.

My numbers were from CBC poll tracker, which is an amalgam of polling. – Garth

#10 JSS on 07.15.19 at 5:10 pm

Are we eventually going to see capital gains taxes applied to the sale of primary residences, in order to help reduce federal debt? This is nice fruit for government to munch on.

#11 DON on 07.15.19 at 5:12 pm

“A 14-foot-wide, 130-year-old row house with a tiny courtyard, an unusable basement, no front yard, no driveway, no parking and a price tag of $1.1 million.”

I’ll offer a cool 2 Million as there must be buried treasure in that basement.

#12 Mattl on 07.15.19 at 5:13 pm

The listing price means very little.

On yesterdays blog a poster was getting a kick out of a house that had a 200K reduction, from 750k to 599K, as if that was a sign of a falling market and the seller was in big trouble. The house in question is appraised at 375K and will probably sell low 400’s. If bought more then 5 years ago, was purchased in the 200’s, low 300s.

I don’t feel a lot of angst for a seller that bought for 500K, is asking 1.5MM and only gets 1MM. That is not a loss, for anyone that is confused about how RE works.

#13 Alessio on 07.15.19 at 5:14 pm

Garth, I feel like the example you used is not a good proxy for current market. 1.35MM is a good price for Yorkville! It costs as much for a town in suburbia and they’re selling! Look at Towns in Rich Hill selling for 1.2MM on Zolo.

Miss the point much? There were no offers at $1.1 million. – Garth

#14 TalkingPie on 07.15.19 at 5:16 pm

“A useful comment until the yellow-peril crap you added.” – Garth

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to frame it as a “peril;” simply an observation of what people are reporting in the city.

Racial profiling is never acceptable. – Garth

#15 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 5:24 pm

Canadian election countdown: 98 days (tirade follows).

And as for your reference to Bowie’s “Changes”. Can’t come soon enough for me and I’m a Liberal.

I don’t care if I have to fly to other side of Italia to vote at a Canadian embassy or Consulate, I will, and it won’t be for Justin’s “Progressive” College Kid, planking, Sari dressing, Japan is the the new China, fake Kokanee feminist, SNC-Lavalin dirty dealing behind the scenes, pipeline workers are evil (hide your women), big mouth that pissed off China and America, $600 MM Cdn. MSM buy-off, $700 MM foreign reproductive rights (WTF?), self-entitled Trust Fund, rudderless, U of Chicago high or drunk performance with David Axelrod, agenda.

Waiter, insurance salesman Scheer will seem a breath of fresh air once Justin is gone for good.

And by gone for good I mean he will lose his Papineau seat where normally a 3 headed dog called a Liberal wins with ease.

The Justin Liberals need to crash but not burn.

I like Chrysta Freeland to pick up the pieces and rebuild, Rhodes Scholar, author, spunky, articulate and all around babe in a pair of heels…brains to burn and presence. And on the US trade thing, blame her boss and not her (as in learn to fight another day). When Pretty Boi would stand up in the House of Commons and lie about Jodi and SNC-Lavalin, Chrysta sitting next to him had nothing but contempt on her face for him.

That’s the woman I want running Canada. Andrew (Harper Light) can inherit it for 4 years and he’ll get my vote, BUT no more and just the 1 time.

Sorry Cons…and bite me.

#16 Smartalox on 07.15.19 at 5:26 pm

I’ve recently signed up for email alerts for new listings in the lower mainland.

Not seeing much yet in terms of desirable selections. What I am seeing mostly appears to break down into two groups:

– Category ‘A’: detached homes that are over built (and overpriced) for the areas in which they are offered. I don’t need three suites and a laneway home to compensate for Italian marble floors in my kitchen.

– Category ‘B’: Lots of ‘Late-capitalist’ hopefuls, those near-condemned, decades-without-a-reno structures on so-so lots, being listed too late for multiple millions of dollars, the unfounded assumption being that ‘some builder’ will snap up the lot, and build another over-built, over priced, ‘Category A’ house, like all the other ones that aren’t selling in the neighbourhood.

Of course, both types of house are side by side in my neighbourhoods of interest.

It’s going to make things interesting when the ‘Category B’ houses start getting priced realistically. Comparables don’t specify if they’re Category ‘A’ or Category ‘B’ – only lot size and asking price.

Markdowns are coming, at the end of this long, slow summer!

#17 The Wet One on 07.15.19 at 5:27 pm

“Racial profiling is never acceptable. – Garth”

Someone should tell Trump.

Ha!

#18 Alessio on 07.15.19 at 5:31 pm

Garth, the point is something odd is up with that house if it won’t sell for 1.35MM. It’s in the top spot if Canada and selling for same price as a townhouse in Richmond Hill or Vaughan or Geez Nobleton even!!!! So it’s got something pretty wrong either it or it would sell fast.

#19 Blue angel on 07.15.19 at 5:43 pm

“If the Cons win, look for leaner government. If there’s a Lib-Green coalition, look out.”

More a cons-bloc Quebecois in my view

#20 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 5:44 pm

One last thing.

That Dorkville example, that is a SINGLE data point Garth. You need 3 for a straight line and at least 30 for a normally distributed sample size provided the standard deviation is low.

THOUGH it’s like you’re saying, it seems there are TWO CANADA’S, 1 where they are saying RE is doing fine in 416 et. al. land then the Marketing Survey Canada where they say people are drowning in debt and hanging on financially by the skin of their teeth.

I agree on the Buyer’s. They will win as they always have in past downturn’s. But that’s just it, you need a downturn. For now, it’s a Mexican Standoff between Buyer’s and Seller’s from what I read.

Time will tell.

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia*.

*Where it’s finally cooled off to upper 20’s and low 30s…then again, Ferragosto will be when Gaia turns up the heat…yet again.

Why you shouldn’t vote for the Greens (the holier than thou Greens should practice what they preach: use nothing derived from fossil fuels and issue that challenge to Canadians in November…come Spring, when most Canadians will have either died of starvation or frozen to death, I expect the Greens will have a Fossil Fuel Born Again revelation…Sermon on the Mount stuff).

#21 pee town on 07.15.19 at 5:55 pm

Garth I’d love to hear your thoughts about the real estate markets just outside the GTA.

Here in Peterborough prices are not slowing at all. Every week it seems some clown from Toronto is buying a dump for 50k over asking. Meanwhile we have a giant tent city next to city hall of homeless people who can’t afford rentals anymore. It’s a disaster.

#22 Captain Uppa on 07.15.19 at 6:03 pm

The amount of flip flopping on this blog over the last six months or so as to where interest rates are headed is dizzying.

Garth, is it not perhaps time to hang up the prognostication hat for interest rates? It changes by the day. No one knows exactly.

Yes, I know it would be simpler for you if the economy was static. But try to keep up. – Garth

#23 [email protected] on 07.15.19 at 6:04 pm

If the Federal Conservatives are elected in the fall is this not a harbinger of populist (Trump-lite) finances to pump inflation by getting rid of the stress test, reintroducing longer CMHC amortizations and cutting oversight of money laundering, flipping and speculation to restore real estate’s influence on GDP?

#24 Alex on 07.15.19 at 6:05 pm

DELETED

#25 Lefty Ruggiero on 07.15.19 at 6:05 pm

“In a couple of weeks US interest rates will go down…”

Fugget about it. Not gunna happin. You C, Powell is a “friend of mine”, that’s right no one can touch him, ask Donnie, he knows.

I gave Powell a couple of “fasules”, bada-bing, bada-boom, no rate hike. Agane, fugget about it.

#26 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.15.19 at 6:13 pm

Bidding wars have been heating up in Montreal since 2017-ish, FOMO to follow soon (I guess)…

Smokin’ HAWT areas :

SFH : Westmount, Town of Mount Royal, West Island (Pointe-Claire, Kirkland, and Beaconsfield).

Will be SIZZLIN’ after the completion of the LTR (2022) linking the western burbs to the International Airport and Downtown.

CONDOS & PLEXES : Plateau, La Petite-Patrie, Rosemont, Verdun, Villeray-Saint-Michel, and Parc-Extension (New UdeM Science campus MIL) / Mile-X (high-tech and AI sector). Hipster heavens!

Getting to boiling point :

Anjou (metro extension by 2026), HoMa (new high frequency-high volume bus service ‘SRB Pie-IX’ 2022), Mercier (Longue-Pointe) handy man specials galore!

Off-island’s a roll of the dice, on the south-shore the Louis-Hippolyte Lafontaine tunnel (east) is scheduled for major work starting next year, and already problematic. On the other side a NEW Mercier bridge (west) is in the works… Most of the traffic will likely rerouted on the NEW Samuel-de-Champlain bridge… yikes!

On the the north-shore, anything within a short bus ride to one of the three Laval metro stations is as good as living on-island. Anything along the Hwy 15 corridor is a nightmare! The Hwy 13 corridor’s still acceptable–for now…

Don’t forget about Québec City and Sherbrooke, university towns, and finally Trois-Rivières has some sweet deals.

Economy’s booming, and lots of retirements coming up in the next few years. Oh, and less tail-end Millennials in Quebec; people stopped having kids in the 90s… (?).

Select Sources :

https://www.lapresse.ca/maison/immobilier/201806/18/01-5186177-letat-du-marche-surenchere-a-montreal.php

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1103999/revente-surenchere-immobilier-maisons-residences-plex-region-metropolitaine

https://www.lapresse.ca/maison/immobilier/201710/06/01-5139158-transactions-revoici-la-surenchere.php

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/278448a3-e0b6-4387-b6c2-68f8203c9a11__7C___0.html

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/853e4e92-2dc0-4fbc-8f7e-62d2c9f4c936__7C___0.html

#27 Interstellar Old Yeller on 07.15.19 at 6:20 pm

Found the listing, looked at the pictures. I’m a little surprised it got no bids, that seems like an in-demand area and a comparatively not-terrible price.

#28 Kona on 07.15.19 at 6:22 pm

I am starting to see many listings in sleepy Ottawa set up for bidding wars that fail to materialize. Who would have thought when it is a seller’s market here? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that buying now means closing around the date of the Federal election. A Cons Gov’t in October will most certainly take the heat out the Ottawa housing market.

#29 CHINESE IS NOT A RACE on 07.15.19 at 6:22 pm

DELETED

#30 MF on 07.15.19 at 6:22 pm

#17 The Wet One on 07.15.19 at 5:27 pm
“Racial profiling is never acceptable. – Garth”

Someone should tell Trump.

Ha!

-In my opinion I think Trump’s detractors still don’t understand Trumpism. It’s about economics and patriotism, not race.

The recent press conference where Trump did a good job of defending his controversial treats about the 4 radical Democrat congresswomen was an example of this. He was accused of being racist/sexist the whole time, but continued to bring the discussion back to denouncing the un-American racist views of the congresswomen. He did a great job.

MF

‘Un-American’? What did the four elected women say that is not ‘American’? – Garth

#31 Cottingham a bargain on 07.15.19 at 6:23 pm

Cottingham a bargain on 07.15.19 at 4:53 pm
Anyone who thinks that the mortgage stress test is solid reason to hang a bearish argument for real estate prices on must be blind to the massive cabal of those who will continue to exert tidal wave pressure to have it eradicated.

Once gone, onwards and upwards we go

That is simply not logical. Nor will that occur. Go hump elsewhere. – Garth
———-

Not humping at all even though I will fully admit that I believe RE prices will continue , or resume , escalation .

On the other hand your response to my comment is weak to say the least. The pressure I cite for the elimination Of stress test is not only real but coming from huge masses of people. Given your political experience I would think that you of all people would think that the promise of its elimination by any political candidate would be winning move .

As stated, will not happen. Significantly, no party is advocating it. – Garth

#32 Linda on 07.15.19 at 6:39 pm

Just because an asset is listed for a certain price doesn’t mean it will fetch it. Stress test, people tapped out, too much debt & also – just how many people are there who could actually make a million dollar plus offer? Seems to me that there is a limit to that category & that it is quite possible that most or all of those who could buy have either already done so or have decided against doing so. Add in the current property condition, which almost certainly means expensive & extensive renovations in addition to the initial purchase price plus land transfer taxes. No offers tell me that people don’t think it is a good investment, despite the so called prime location.

#33 Greg on 07.15.19 at 6:46 pm

Hi Garth,

With the US rate cuts happening in a few weeks, how will this impact the USCAD exchange rate? CAD should appreciate, eh?

#34 Stats freak on 07.15.19 at 6:50 pm

So does this all still mean we should just continue to ignore the noise and stay in our diversified portfolio holdings moving forward ?

#35 Smoking Man on 07.15.19 at 7:10 pm

Read it and weep James, wifey poo is doing pretty good as an amature. Like I said before, millions of ways to make millions.

She opend her account with 10g betting 10 contacts. Once up to 100k she started betting 100 lot contracts.

Being a confest bull shitter and master lier most of you will think this total bull shit. Working class mentality. Next project. She bakes amazing cookies. We will add a little THC sell them at the dispencary.

USDCAD TOTAL $436,718

Start Date End Date Buy Contracts Sell Contracts  

19-Mar-19 25-Mar-19 50 10 $13,076

25-Mar-19 3-Apr-19 20 40 ($1,136)

3-Apr-19 11-Apr-19 30 10 $4,384

11-Apr-19 12-Apr-19 10 30 $2,930

12-Apr-19 15-Apr-19 20 10 $1,832

15-Apr-19 17-Apr-19 10 20 $1,816

17-Apr-19 18-Apr-19 30 10 $3,508

18-Apr-19 23-Apr-19 40 10 $8,016

23-Apr-19 24-Apr-19 40 10 $3,480

24-Apr-19 26-Apr-19 10 20 $503

26-Apr-19 30-Apr-19 10 30 $5,870

30-Apr-19 2-May-19 40 10 $8,355

2-May-19 3-May-19 10 30 $4,192

3-May-19 7-May-19 30 10 $4,514

7-May-19 10-May-19 10 30 $2,996

10-May-19 13-May-19 30 10 $3,284

13-May-19 15-May-19 10 20 $1,124

15-May-19 22-May-19 20 20 ($5,000)

22-May-19 23-May-19 30 10 $4,860

23-May-19 24-May-19 10 20 $1,542

24-May-19 11-Jun-19 10 70 $39,792

11-Jun-19 18-Jun-19 50 10 $24,800

18-Jun-19 19-Jun-19 100 200 $12,940

19-Jun-19 19-Jun-19 100 200 $5,220

19-Jun-19 19-Jun-19 100 200 $24,260

19-Jun-19 20-Jun-19 100 400 $105,480

20-Jun-19 21-Jun-19 200 100 $9,710

21-Jun-19 25-Jun-19 100 300 $47,400

25-Jun-19 26-Jun-19 100 300 $26,620

26-Jun-19 26-Jun-19 100 100 $0

26-Jun-19 28-Jun-19 100 200 $5,530

28-Jun-19 2-Jul-19 100 100 ($750)

2-Jul-19 3-Jul-19 100 200 $10,570

3-Jul-19 9-Jul-19 100 200 $21,500

9-Jul-19 10-Jul-19 100 300 $23,060

10-Jul-19 12-Jul-19 100 300 $10,440

#36 Shawn on 07.15.19 at 7:13 pm

The Fed will cut 25 bps in July and again in Dec.

The BOC will cut 25 bps in Oct.

#37 Shawn on 07.15.19 at 7:15 pm

Powell went too far. Now he has to reverse. The rest of the world is still easing…

#38 Nonplused on 07.15.19 at 7:28 pm

“Currently the Cons lead the polls (36%) with the Libs at 29%, the Dippers with 15% and Liz’s Greens at 10%. Mad Max is nowhere.

Hopefully Turdeau will join Nutley as a “single use politician”. But unfortunately those numbers point to either a minority or coalition government. Yikes.

—————-

Here is a really good presentation by Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace. It’s a very long watch (1:24) but if you haven’t seen the material before very worth it. You’ll be “woke” by the end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWahKIG4BE4

I found the bit about the new Greenpeace, of which Moore is no longer a member, wanting to ban chlorine, extremely enlightening. Hello cholera, and good luck keeping your granola and kale down. These people’s ideas are nothing short of dangerous. They aren’t about stopping nuclear tests and saving the whales anymore, they want nothing less than the complete reversal of modern society and a dramatic culling of the human population. But they make good money doing it.

#39 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.19 at 7:29 pm

Of course, Canada has an election coming, too. In three months – with the potential to rock the political landscape.
……………………….

It is not an election, it is an exorcism. I am bringing holy water, a wooden stake, a defrocked priest, and Van Helsing. What are you bringing ?

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.19 at 7:33 pm

@#15 Dolce Vita
“Chrysta sitting next to him had nothing but contempt on her face for him….”
++++

I think that look is permanent and not just for Trudeau.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.15.19 at 7:45 pm

Hmmm.
Looks like Trumps use (abuse?) of economic sanctions to drive political policy has come back to haunt him……

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan/china-says-will-freeze-out-u-s-companies-that-sell-arms-to-taiwan-idUSKCN1UA0N8

It will be interesting to see where the latest Tv/ Video Game/ Iphone/ etc. comes from when 90% of them are “Made in China”

#42 Bezengy on 07.15.19 at 7:48 pm

So I’m sitting here on the deck at my farm in Timmins, aka Goldtown. House is a disaster but Its arguably the nicest property in the city with over 100 acres, private bay with 700 feet of shoreline, hockey rink size man’s garage and no neighbours, and I still can read the blog with cell service. Life is good. Paid 100k 5 years ago. I’ll take the 1.1 mil if anyone is interested. Btw, thanks for the shoutout to Timmins. Did I mention the fish are biting?

#43 AGuyInVancouver on 07.15.19 at 8:00 pm

DELETED

#44 Shawn Allen on 07.15.19 at 8:03 pm

WE’RE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE HERE!

On this blog we are all quite literally although definitely not figuratively on the same page basically all the time.

I have not seen anyone copy the format of this highly successful and addictive blog. (One active page per day and the commentators provide much of the entertainment and reason to visit.) Has anyone seen it copied?

#45 the Jaguar on 07.15.19 at 8:26 pm

@#15 – Dolce Vita “I like Chrystia Freeland to pick up the pieces and rebuild, Rhodes Scholar, author, spunky, articulate and all around babe in a pair of heels…brains to burn and presence.”

Respectfully, as I know I am addressing a person who can probably whip up a mean carbonara (mild or hot pancetta?), however:

Agreed she is wicked smart, but gets on her soapbox too much on issues like Putin and Ukraine when she should be minding business closer to the hearts and minds of Canadians. As for her being ‘spunky’, too many sound bites on the empowerment of women for my taste. It gets tiresome. Aren’t we beyond that by now? As for her wardrobe, I still can’t get the image of that awful black dress she wore repeatedly during the trade talks out of my memory. It was funeral wear. Where is Nigel Wright? I always liked him. Grace under pressure and smart as hell. The man reeked of decency! Andrew Scheer is probably a likeable enough sort, but what’s going to hurt him is his association with Saskatchewan. Hard to explain, but line up 20 people with ten from that province and the Jaguar can go down the line with a felt marker and identify every single one of them. Mercy.

#46 DON on 07.15.19 at 8:41 pm

#12 Mattl on 07.15.19 at 5:13 pm

The listing price means very little.

On yesterdays blog a poster was getting a kick out of a house that had a 200K reduction, from 750k to 599K, as if that was a sign of a falling market and the seller was in big trouble. The house in question is appraised at 375K and will probably sell low 400’s. If bought more then 5 years ago, was purchased in the 200’s, low 300s.

I don’t feel a lot of angst for a seller that bought for 500K, is asking 1.5MM and only gets 1MM. That is not a loss, for anyone that is confused about how RE works.
*************

Your house is only as worth as much as a potential buyer is willing to pay for it in a given location.

Check the local wages as the retirement boom subsides as well as the exodus out of Vancouver. Even human nature is logical (somewhat).

#47 Yanniel on 07.15.19 at 8:44 pm

#60 Tater on 07.15.19 at 7:48 am

#49 Yanniel on 07.14.19 at 2:20 pm
#45 Sail Away on 07.14.19 at 12:07 pm

Leverage = risk. That’s not necessary so.

Leverage can be a powerful tool in risk control.
—————————————————————-

Can you flesh this out a bit?

********************************************

Sure. A simple example. Say you want to invest all your money in the S&P 500 (just as Buffett in his famous bet).

Option 1: invest 100% of capital in SPY.

Option 2: invest 66.67% in SHY and 33.33% in UPRO, rebalance quarterly.

Don’t trust me on this. Go to portfoliovisualizer.com and back test it yourself. See how similar the CAGR, Stdev, Max. Drawdown are. (Bad thing the backtest can’t go beyond 2010. It would have been very interesting to add just a couple of years, starting in 2008)

If they are so similar, why to bother with Option 2 and those pesky leveraged ETFs?

The difference is that the maximum drawdown in Option 2 is capped at around 33.33%. The maximum drawdown in Option 1 could easily go beyond that. Even if UPRO implodes like a super nova the maximum loss is capped in Option 2.

Volatility is often used as an indicator of risk; but that alone does not tell the whole story. Fat tail and Black Swans are not captured by volatility and guess what:

“Most turkey’s live very happy, stable, predictable lives. Until Thanksgiving.” – Nassim Taleb

Mean reversion is not the Knight in Shining Armor that can conquer Blank Swans. The damage you do can be permanent; the shorter your investment horizon the worst it can be.

Notice that in this example leverage was used not for greed; not to chase alpha. This example uses it to cap the maximum loss while still keeping the same stock exposure and upside potential.

The bad:

The cost of leverage in Leveraged ETFs is embedded in the MER and it is not tax deductible. Sorry. No way around this. Still, paying 1% will give you control of 3 times your invested capital. It does not seem like a rip-off to me. This idea can be implemented with derivatives with its own benefits and drawbacks.

Leveraged ETFs are trading vehicles, they are not to be used for couch-potato-like-investing, they don’t track the index, they are bad! I disagree. The best article demystifying all this that I have read so far is this one: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/01/levered-etfs-long-run/. “WisdomTree” has an easy to use simulator of leveraged ETFs. Play with it. See how they do in trending markets or in choppy markets. After all this, go portfoliovisualizer.com once more and play with other portfolios: what about the 60/40?

Quarterly re-balancing? Leveraged ETFs are not to “buy and hold”, but you can think of them as “buy and adjust”. Re-balancing more often reduces “timing luck” (google it) and it can be done without incurring any transactions costs depending on your broker and the size of your account.

Unrelated: This article offers a distinct view about Buffett’s bet (thought of it after “Sail away” mentioned it):

https://investresolve.com/blog/resolves-buffett-bet-portfolio-risk-parity-and-factors/

#48 -=jwk=- on 07.15.19 at 8:51 pm

If the Cons win, look for leaner government.

You can look all you like, but you wont find it. It has never happened this way. Usually it’s the libs cleaning up the Con mess. Now will the Con’s actually clean up the lib mess or just let it ride? My bet is on let it ride.

#49 Shawn Allen on 07.15.19 at 9:06 pm

Fee’s not tax deductible

Yanniel said a bunch of stuff too complicated for me but added:

“The cost of leverage in Leveraged ETFs is embedded in the MER and it is not tax deductible. Sorry. No way around this.

*****************************
Any MER is not a deduction on a tax form. But since it lowers your return, it automatically lowers your tax bill.

But it may be a delayed tax benefit. Some of the benefit won’t show up until years later when you sell at a capital gain that is lower due to the MER… and capital gains are only half taxed so that makes the MER effectively half tax deductible in that case.

So, for example, a tax deductible management fee paid to an esteemed fee-only advisor is MORE of a tax deduction than is an MER, but the after-tax cost an MER will be lower than the gross before tax MER as the MER paid will lower your taxable dividends, interest and/or capital gain at some point.

#50 I think I'll ... on 07.15.19 at 9:06 pm

#39 Yukon Elvis on 07.15.19 at 7:29 pm
It is not an election, it is an exorcism. I am bringing holy water, a wooden stake, a defrocked priest, and Van Helsing. What are you bringing ?

bring up my breakfast if the Lib’s win again.

#51 Captain Uppa on 07.15.19 at 9:07 pm

>> #22 Captain Uppa on 07.15.19 at 6:03 pm
The amount of flip flopping on this blog over the last six months or so as to where interest rates are headed is dizzying.

Garth, is it not perhaps time to hang up the prognostication hat for interest rates? It changes by the day. No one knows exactly.

Yes, I know it would be simpler for you if the economy was static. But try to keep up. – Garth >>

Well if it’s not static then stop pretending to know exactly where rates are going for the love of Vishnu!

Canadian rates are going nowhere. – Garth

#52 fishman on 07.15.19 at 9:11 pm

Christa Freeland for PM? Bite me. Really? The Christa that tweeted on Aug 24 2016 that she honours the memory of her maternal grandfather Mikhailo Chorniak. I mean its not like their is one skeleton in that closet. More like millions. I know the sins of the fathers are not supposed to be handed down but honouring the memory of a man who voluntarily editorialized in Krakivski Visti for Hans Frank from 39 till Allies captured him in 45? Frank wasn’t called the “Butcher of Poland” for nothing.

#53 Mr Canada on 07.15.19 at 9:12 pm

Re; Fall Can 2019 Election. Unfortunately it will probably be a Liberal Minority. Libs will grab most of the 15 NDP ridings in PQ with Mad Max splitting the vote at the expense of the Cons. Liberals will lose all of Alberta and most of the Prairie’s to the Cons, and will likely lose ridings to the Green’s in BC and a few to the Cons in Maritimes. Ontario will remain Liberal because they think Cons will be another Doug Ford. NDP will be done & Singh will be toast. With a Lib minority supported by the Green’s and a few remaining NDP’s – it will be just like BC: tax, borrow & spend baby, and forget the pipelines. Time to buy some US $.

#54 Penny Henny on 07.15.19 at 9:21 pm

The result will be inflation. That usually brings higher interest rates.
/////////////////

Just in case it wasn’t mentioned earlier.
Gold baby Gold.

Give it up. Inflation may rocket to 3%, resulting in central bank response and a bolstered USD. Rocks will languish. – Garth

#55 Sail Away on 07.15.19 at 9:33 pm

#47 Yanniel on 07.15.19 at 8:44 pm
#60 Tater on 07.15.19 at 7:48 am

#49 Yanniel on 07.14.19 at 2:20 pm
#45 Sail Away on 07.14.19 at 12:07 pm

Leverage = risk. That’s not necessary so.

Leverage can be a powerful tool in risk control.
—————————————————————-

Can you flesh this out a bit?

********************************************

Sure. A simple example. Say you want to invest all your money in the S&P 500 (just as Buffett in his famous bet).

Option 1: invest 100% of capital in SPY.

Option 2: invest 66.67% in SHY and 33.33% in UPRO, rebalance quarterly.

—————————————–

Yanniel, what was the outcome with this simulation, inclusive of fees? Option 1 vs Option 2? Say starting with $1M

#56 Sebee on 07.15.19 at 9:42 pm

What if they look at current rates the way they looked at 8%…normal? What if they are prepared to go to 0% or negative interest rates. You can be sure those scenarios have been thoroughly evaluated.

Passing this massive non repayable debt to future generations is ingenious play by the thoughtful politicians Why shouldn’t they be in-debt and in the hole at birth? Inslave them to the politicians from first breath.

#57 Shawn Allen on 07.15.19 at 9:57 pm

FUture Generatiosn Shall Inherit What?

Sebee at 56 lamented:

Passing this massive non repayable debt to future generations is ingenious play by the thoughtful politicians Why shouldn’t they be in-debt and in the hole at birth? Inslave them to the politicians from first breath.

***********************************
Well, as an offset to the debt, it is a fact that future generations will inherit the earth with all of its current improvements and the accumulated knowledge of humanity which can come in useful. Maybe not such a bad deal.

Also can’t they just punt the debt to the next generations after that? Only the interest need be paid?

#58 Sebee on 07.15.19 at 10:06 pm

$1.1M? $1.35M

Here is one for $950K, 10 acres, indoor pool, creek in the back…and you still have $400K to give to Garth to stash away into something paying 6%+

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6291-Broadway-St-Lancaster-NY-14086/30362898_zpid/

Cheaper gas. 1 hour or so drive from Toronto. Leafs play near by and tickets cost less. Tim Hortons is there for some time so you don’t have to cross and you can still shop at Target! And unlike Dolce Vita Gelatoman, you can still enjoy the incredible Canadian winters!

Oh..and you’ll actually own the 10 acres of land, not like this Queen’s land they make you believe you own here in Canada.

#59 Yanniel on 07.15.19 at 10:08 pm

#55 Sail Away on 07.15.19 at 9:33 pm

Yanniel, what was the outcome with this simulation, inclusive of fees? Option 1 vs Option 2? Say starting with $1M

——————-
Option 1:

Initial Balance: $1,000,000
Final Balance: $3,181,521
CAGR: 12.96%

Option 2:

Initial Balance: $1,000,000
Final Balance: $3,067,360
CAGR: 12.52%

#60 Moses71 on 07.15.19 at 10:22 pm

#2–deeevorce is the numner one wealth killer. too bad his wife wasn’t caught in 2017, this hubby would’ve made more, I guess

#21–Peterborough is getting $50k over asking?? Hope someone is telling them where the flood zones are. Jeez

Fast and furiously playing catch-up over here on the retirement planning end as I entered into my forties. Thanks to this blog, especially. (After 20yrs of financially single mother hood and CRF)–So it’s never too late. Looking forward to an early retirement, I’m hoping.

#61 BD on 07.15.19 at 10:23 pm

TalkingPie

Majority of economist/financial advisors miss the impact of foreign capital on residential real estate and only concentrate on local incomes. This is why the economist/financial advisors were talking about a housing bubbles since 2008. They did not see or factor in foreign capital flows into real estate.

Same reason the Dow keeps moving up! Foreign capital looking for a save place to park their money!

I live in South Surrey and foreign investors around October 2016 were willing to purchase a house for $1.2m to rent it out for $2,700 a month. That is a 2.7% return. I think it is more like 3% now. However, at that time I believe a Bond, S&P500, Dow, and TSX ETFs were paying a 2.4% dividend.

I could add more information, but I think you get the point – It is just money moving around trying to find a save place to park!

#62 Moses71 on 07.15.19 at 10:28 pm

#2–deeevorce is the numner one wealth killer. too bad his wife wasn’t caught in 2017, this hubby would’ve made more, I guess

#21–Peterborough is getting $50k over asking?? Hope someone is telling them where the flood zones are. Jeez

Fast and furiously playing catch-up over here on the retirement planning end as I entered into my forties. Thanks to this blog, especially. (After 20yrs of financially single mother hood and CRF)–So it’s never too late. Looking forward to an early retirement, I’m hoping.

#63 Miss Anthropic on 07.15.19 at 10:39 pm

#26 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.15.19 at 6:13 pm

What a complete load of crap. Links to newspaper space purchased by Quebec’s RE cartel, who push their propaganda under the guise of “news” to build FOMO. Totally corrupted market in and around Montreal. Mostly quick flips orchestrated by broker networks…

#64 Sail Away on 07.15.19 at 10:43 pm

#59 Yanniel on 07.15.19 at 10:08 pm
#55 Sail Away on 07.15.19 at 9:33 pm

Yanniel, what was the outcome with this simulation, inclusive of fees? Option 1 vs Option 2? Say starting with $1M

——————-
Option 1:

Initial Balance: $1,000,000
Final Balance: $3,181,521
CAGR: 12.96%

Option 2:

Initial Balance: $1,000,000
Final Balance: $3,067,360
CAGR: 12.52%

——————————

Thanks

#65 Sean on 07.15.19 at 10:56 pm

Scary times when the Fed is under political control. Bye bye US dollar as the global reserve currency.

#66 DON on 07.15.19 at 11:03 pm

#18 Alessio on 07.15.19 at 5:31 pm

Garth, the point is something odd is up with that house if it won’t sell for 1.35MM. It’s in the top spot if Canada and selling for same price as a townhouse in Richmond Hill or Vaughan or Geez Nobleton even!!!! So it’s got something pretty wrong either it or it would sell fast.
**********************

Maybe we are going back to the old normal. When bidding wars and high asking prices were non existent. Could be the downside of the roller coaster ride. How much do you have to make to buy at these current prices (picture yourself as a younger first time buyer).

Slow melts over time still hurt – the debt doesn’t go away. The breaking point…

#67 Sean on 07.15.19 at 11:04 pm

Canada as a whole would be lucky to have an economy as strong as British Columbia’s. Maybe we shouldn’t be afraid of a (Federal, not Conservative BC) Liberal, NDP, Green coalition.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadas-new-economic-power-british-columbia/

#68 Bill Puffle on 07.15.19 at 11:07 pm

I disagree that mortgage rates are at a bottom in Canada. I still think there will be a massive crash in real estate in Canada. I’m predicting a 50%+ decline across the board in Vancouver and the GTA. Some of the properties that are in disrepair will have even bigger declines. The declines in the non-bubble areas of Canada will be more modest.

When this happens, the government will do everything they can to stimulate housing again. They will be begging for people to buy. They’ll bring back 40 year amortizations. They’ll bring back the 0% down payment. Rock bottom interest rates. There will be all sorts of government programs to get people buying houses again. It will be a fantastic buying opportunity and you’ll have a nice recovery over the next decade from the lows.

What I think you fail to understand Garth, is that rates will never really normalize. We will be in a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future. I’m talking Japan style ZIRP for decades with no end in sight. Now sure, they might do some tinkering and raise it by 25 basis points a few times like they’ve done recently, but they will ultimately cut back to zero again. Interest rates will probably be this low or lower for the rest of our lives.

Also, “Today’s debt is tomorrow’s taxes” is only true if you believe that the government will one day run a surplus to lower the debt. I also doubt that will ever happen again in our lifetime. There might be the occasional year where the budget is balanced, but I really don’t think any politician is going to actually start running surpluses for multiple years. So today’s debt isn’t tomorrow’s taxes, it’s just bigger government, a devalued currency, and inflation. I doubt we will ever see a Canadian politician win by campaigning to raise taxes and pay off the debt. They only ever want to raise taxes to increase spending. Canadians aren’t going to vote for higher taxes to repay the debt, they’ll vote for lower taxes or more free stuff.

#69 Ace Goodheart on 07.15.19 at 11:11 pm

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.672799&-79.392882&18?listing=31-bishop-street-toronto-c4517345-3891714

Cute. The backyard isn’t really much of an oasis.

Electric baseboards? Wow.

Oh well. The Annex always was over rated. Sort of like calling Rockcliffe the “upper Junction”.

#70 DON on 07.15.19 at 11:13 pm

#53 Mr Canada on 07.15.19 at 9:12 pm

Re; Fall Can 2019 Election. Unfortunately it will probably be a Liberal Minority. Libs will grab most of the 15 NDP ridings in PQ with Mad Max splitting the vote at the expense of the Cons. Liberals will lose all of Alberta and most of the Prairie’s to the Cons, and will likely lose ridings to the Green’s in BC and a few to the Cons in Maritimes. Ontario will remain Liberal because they think Cons will be another Doug Ford. NDP will be done & Singh will be toast. With a Lib minority supported by the Green’s and a few remaining NDP’s – it will be just like BC: tax, borrow & spend baby, and forget the pipelines. Time to buy some US $.
***************

I have been watching the social media and May (Greens) hiring Warren Kensella may be a factor in BC (lots of potential Greens are unsettled with the move or so it seems) and things may just stay same in BC. I agree with the how Ontario will go due to Ford. A minority government seems likely. Will the Greens offer electoral reform…dental plan etc. What do people need at the moment…help with the cost of living increases?

#71 Tony on 07.15.19 at 11:33 pm

Re: #3 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 4:50 pm

The election in America is next year.

#72 Skeptical and Jaded Gen Z'er on 07.16.19 at 12:17 am

Isn’t this where all of those designer stores are located?

Something isn’t right that land which could be used to tear down and rebuild a condo or duplex isn’t selling for a mill.

Mizrahi could build a condo tower and sell each unit for a mil for one unit alone, so what is the story of this?

Check Steeles Avenue East and Yonge- entire rows of houses are being bought to tear down and build condo towers.

So why is right in the heart of downtown Toronto not selling?

America stamping down on money laundering?

#73 islander on 07.16.19 at 12:29 am

Almost 20% of the condos in my building are for sale. Suburbs of Victoria, 10 year old building, gorgeous location, but somewhat isolated. The ‘for sale’ signs out front are gathering dust – I might suggest to council that they be replaced with one discrete sign saying,’please contact your realtor for information’, because it’s starting to look a little tacky – one sign after another!
6 months ago there was movement with one or two ‘prime suites’, but not any more.
The market is dead in the water.

#74 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.16.19 at 12:33 am

I’m hoping for a Bloc/Conservative coalition. The way forward.

#75 Sebee on 07.16.19 at 12:34 am

#57 Shawn Allen

Improvements? Like what? Global warming? No? How about all that nuclear waste? No? For sure then the fantastic political system. Oh yeah.

…and pay only interest? Are you reading this post and thinking “I’m gonna buy me the 130 year old row house Garth be talking about. If it’s on the blog it must be a steal of a deal. I’ll pay interest only on it!”

#76 John Turner on 07.16.19 at 12:46 am

DELETED

#77 palebird on 07.16.19 at 12:59 am

#45 “Andrew Scheer is probably a likeable enough sort, but what’s going to hurt him is his association with Saskatchewan. Hard to explain, but line up 20 people with ten from that province and the Jaguar can go down the line with a felt marker and identify every single one of them. Mercy.”

Jag,
I don’t even like Scheer but he is the only one to vote for. But it would seem that you don’t get out much. You do realise that 90% of the population of this country are all star Canadians, just like the poor folks in Saskatchewan. The rest are dweebs living in “the city” pretending to be somebody that they are not. Line up 20 Canucks anywhere in western Canada with 10 originating from TO and the Hogtown experts stick out like a sore thumb. Don’t have to use a felt marker. That dumb look on their face says it all.

#78 Nonplused on 07.16.19 at 1:01 am

#57 Shawn Allen

See, the thing about “passing the debt down to the next generation” has never been a real thing. I know lots of people talk about it that way and frame it that way, but that’s not what is actually going to happen, because future generations never lent anybody any money.
Instead, what really happened is that a bunch of boomers and banks lent a bunch of money to other boomers and banks through the government or through private channels, and they are going to find one day that they aren’t getting paid back. One could say at 2% interest rates and 2% inflation they already aren’t.

The concept that a debt today can be a claim on future earnings has a very limited scope and in fact is almost never done. Sure a bank will lend you money for a house if you have a good income and can support the loan, but the loan is always against the house and they will take the house back if you don’t pay. Same with a car loan, don’t pay it and tow trucks show up after dark. On small loans banks will extend credit but oh boy don’t default or life becomes hell.

This idea that we have that we have somehow indebted the future generations is complete balderdash. Money is an accounting system, it is not real. When the default occurs, it will not be the young who suffer, it will be the folks with golf memberships who foolishly lent money to folks they should not have like the government.

All government debt gets paid off through default or inflation, sometimes hyperinflation. It never gets paid off by taxing the next generation. It can’t, they don’t have any money.

And it is all as moral as it can be. Anybody who expects to make good money by lending money to the government is corrupt, and deserves all the losses they will eventually incur.

Every single dollar there is in government debt will be dealt with by inflation. There is no other way at this point. If you were corrupt enough to lend money to the government, you will get what you deserve.

#79 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 2:22 am

Only reason I taught the wife to trade forex , become self sufficient, to the point she would never need me again.

I came to the realization that my two packs a day of taken down a cigarette on a single drag and my uncontrolable binge drinking might lead to certain early death.

My fear was she would find a better man.

Look at me, a few teeth left, no hair. Skinny arms with a 8 month pregnant belly. Zero attractiveness.

Mother nature will take me out soon. I love her.

Last thing I want for my wife of 40 years is to be owned by another man.

After I’m done, she will have luxury to pick and chose a new man with out the pressure of being poor.

Dear God I might be a feminist….

#80 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 2:43 am

Dudes if you work for a multinational Corp and you think layoffs are coming. Job security basterds. Think outside the box.

Sport some lipstick. A few ear rings. Confess to being a trans. You will be the last be let go.

No CEO at Davos wants to be the man that did that. The shaming will be brutal

Got my wife’s underwear on right now auditioning. She’s looking at me with Charles Manson eyes.

#81 Howard on 07.16.19 at 5:26 am

#15 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 5:24 pm

I like Chrysta Freeland to pick up the pieces and rebuild, Rhodes Scholar, author, spunky, articulate and all around babe in a pair of heels…brains to burn and presence. And on the US trade thing, blame her boss and not her (as in learn to fight another day). When Pretty Boi would stand up in the House of Commons and lie about Jodi and SNC-Lavalin, Chrysta sitting next to him had nothing but contempt on her face for him.

——————————-

Chrystia Freeland went on US television and said we shouldn’t criticize honour killings because it would offend people.

This is the woman you want leading a national political party with a shot at power?

She is ideologically identical to Twinkle Toes but with a bit more grey matter.

#82 Howard on 07.16.19 at 6:13 am

#48 -=jwk=- on 07.15.19 at 8:51 pm
If the Cons win, look for leaner government.

You can look all you like, but you wont find it. It has never happened this way. Usually it’s the libs cleaning up the Con mess.

————————————–

No it isn’t.

The example I presume you are thinking of, Mulroney/Chretien, is a false one.

Mulroney inherited a debt bullet train with a faulty brake and runaway inflation from Twinkle Toes’ father. It took his government longer than it should have to begin to fix things, but he did get Canada back to an operating surplus and put in place the GST which allowed Chretien/Martin to eliminate the deficit altogether. PET buried Canada, Mulroney tentatively dug it out, and Chretien/Martin hosed it off.

#83 Yanniel on 07.16.19 at 6:18 am

“#78 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 2:22 am”

My mom also had two packs of cigarets a day. She did it for over 20 years. She got lung cancer by 50. She survived after loosing half a lung. 5 years now in remission. No signs of cancer. Don’t wait for this to happen to stop smoking ( you can keep the blog username)

My mom stoped smoking the same day she learned she was pooch. She had told me for 20 years she couldn’t quit; yet she quit in a day.

#84 Yanniel on 07.16.19 at 6:21 am

Oops. I meant “losing”, “pooched”.

#85 Captain Uppa on 07.16.19 at 6:52 am

>>Canadian rates are going nowhere. – Garth>>

Much like 90% of this blog’s steerage section.

Thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all week.

#86 Chris Lipton on 07.16.19 at 7:04 am

Nonplused, no everyone will pay when not if things go down the craper. Socialsim, Venezuela for instance is one way, higher inflation, higher inflation for goods and services, company defaults and bankruptcies like Nortel another example, rip off inflated real estate with the disguise of cheap mortgage rates 2.5% for example for example $850,000 to $1,000,000 home value in Toronto, GTA, Vancouver, Victoria plus high rents, $2,500 to $4,000 a month etc. We all pay and will pay young and old when left wing parties Liberals, NDP, Greens, Democrats, Labour Party etc. tax, spend, debt binge us to death.

#87 Oh Canada, I weep. on 07.16.19 at 7:40 am

I’ve decided that buying a home in either Sodom or Gomorrah is less an investment than simply flushing my money , better spent on wierdness, down a social toilet. I’m talking about you Canada.

“That’s not how we do things in Canada” , trumpets PM Trudeau. Fine, until we remember that Trudeau has publicly berated grandmother’s at public meetings, defunded Christian school children, shown undisguised contempt for veterans, called out Euro-origin citizens as racists, undeserving xenophobes, spit at the law, called out opposition for siding with Canada against UN boondoggles etc etc ad nauseum. Trudeau calling out Trump is misguided….to say the least.

Mr Trudeau may have shocked the conciense of the nation by pushing his interest in sexual activity to children as young as three, and even two. This is another example of Mr Trudeau’s uniquely twisted mind. Mr Trudeau, please, three year old children are not objects or instigators of sexual desire.

Unless you’re an extreme deviant you’d agree. Pedophiles are now advocating to he referred to as “Young Attracted”. Apparently being labelled a “pedophile” has lost it’s cache.

https://thebridgehead.ca/2017/06/26/the-cbc-says-children-seeing-nude-men-at-pride-is-a-good-discussion-opportunity/

A second Trudeau mandate and I’m sure the depths of hell will rise and no neighborhood will be worth the effort because Canada will have become a place to leave.

Is Trudeau an innocent lamb compared to Trump, no, and he has no right to claim the moral high ground on any matter.

#88 Tom Roberts on 07.16.19 at 7:43 am

I see nobody talking about the out of control day care costs here in Ontario. I got a notice for another $175 a month increase for 2 young kids.

I am paying almost $3,000 a month for my 2 kids 5 and 6 years old and it looks like talking to someone there this is a likely trend for the next 3 years at least. She told me that it is because of the much higher minimum wage, electricity costs, property taxes, water, garbage rates, insurance rates over many years in Ontario, thanks Wynne, Mcguinty Ontario Liberals, John Tory Toronto Liberal. She also told me since Trudeau Federal Liberals jack up the monthly child tax benefit, basically welfare for kids to almost $10,000 a year tax free they will charge more, much more as they have done for almost 4 years now.

It looks like my wife is thinking of leaving her $60,000 a year job because after all income taxes, C.P.P, E.I., gas, insurance, car payments etc. she is breaking even maybe losing money to go to work. If she stops working, she will actually save money instead of losing money every month.

Another ripoff from Trudeau Federal Liberals did is cut back the yearly contribution TFSA from $10,000 to $5,000. They don’t Canadians save and retire with dignity instead rely on C.P.P., OAS, GIS more government run plans with high fees, administration costs and low pension payouts.

#89 Yanniel on 07.16.19 at 8:11 am

And another oops:

“cigarettes”

Gosh.

#90 Steven Rowlandson on 07.16.19 at 8:19 am

“If the Cons win, look for leaner government. ”

Since when? More likely they will increase the deficit, go to war with Iran and make this nations sins protected and compulsory to a degree that even the most radical liberal or NDP politician would not consider possible for a conservative. Different labels same general program. It is merely a question of degrees.

#91 Julian on 07.16.19 at 8:25 am

Garth said, “Why would the central bank throw gas on this conflagration?”. I’m not sure the question was really answered but I certainly wonder about the rationale for cutting rates in the USA and Canada when both countries evidently have historically low unemployment and other robust economic numbers. Can someone help me understand? Even if one makes the argument that inflation is low and thus there is room to cut, would the Central banks not be concerned about the potential for substantial spikes in inflation if they throw fuel on the fire.

#92 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:26 am

RE Smokey @35

You may want to read up on a Benford’s Law before making up numbers.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.16.19 at 8:26 am

@#86 Oh Canada
“A second Trudeau mandate and I’m sure the depths of hell will rise and no neighborhood will be worth the effort because Canada will have become a place to leave….”
+++++

Soooo.
You’re not voting Liberal this Oct?

#94 Q2 Class No. 6131 on 07.16.19 at 8:27 am

‘Mad Max is nowhere.’

Polls said the same thing about Donald Trump three years ago. As I recall, on Election Day 2016, polls reported that HRC had a 95% chance of winning. You know the rest.

Moral: Ignore polls. They’re FAR less accurate than you think.

Trump was in double digits. Max is a decimal point. – Garth

#95 Captain Uppa on 07.16.19 at 8:32 am

>> #87 Tom Roberts on 07.16.19 at 7:43 am
“I am paying almost $3,000 a month for my 2 kids 5 and 6 years old…” >>

I feel your pain.

One thing I do is shave some of the interest in my TFSA 60/40 portfolio each month to help supplement my costs for daycare. Each month, at least in the past couple years, the interest grows back for the following month; I never touch the principal.

Obviously it’s not a good long term strategy, but it’s a nice little aid to use for now.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.16.19 at 8:39 am

@#72 Islander
“6 months ago there was movement with one or two ‘prime suites’, but not any more.
The market is dead in the water.”
*****

Yep seein the same thing in the Lowerbrainland.
Lotsa signs gathering dust.
Or the realtor signs change but the properties remain “For Sale”.
News stories about “Foreclosures” by Christmas?

#97 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:45 am

Yanniel:

Do me a favour and go to portfoliovisualizer.com and compare a portfolio of 100% SSO and 100% SPY since 2007 and it should become very clear that while your strategy decrease the max drawdown, it also increases the probability of that drawdown occurring.

And levered ETFs that only go back to 2009 or later, don’t have the performance history you need to see. Since 09, SPY has had a sharpe of 1. Any leveraged strategy will look good.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.16.19 at 8:47 am

@#86 Tom Roberts
“I am paying almost $3,000 a month for my 2 kids …”
+++++
I remember sitting on a charter bus in Montreal about 15 years ago waiting to leave with co-workers from all over Canada to go to a training session( brainwashing session).
Two women from Montreal were complaining bitterly about the new Govt daycare rates. The rates were rising from $5/day per child to $7/day. The horror.
I laughed and said, “In BC people pay $1000/month per child for daycare”
They refused to believe it until a woman on the same bus from Calgary spoke up and said , “I’m paying $800/month per child in Alberta.”

One wonders if the taxpayer funded subsidies in Quebec will reach a financial tipping point before ……the rest of Canada.

#99 dharma bum on 07.16.19 at 8:52 am

#87 Tom Roberts

It looks like my wife is thinking of leaving her $60,000 a year job because after all income taxes, C.P.P, E.I., gas, insurance, car payments etc. she is breaking even maybe losing money to go to work. If she stops working, she will actually save money instead of losing money every month.
——————————————————————-

BINGO!

Give the man a prize. He finally figured it out.

Women hit the work force en masse back in the day to fulfill their aspirations and ambitions. it was part of that “equality” thing. Y’know, Betty Friedan, Gloria Steinem, and all of their hoopla.

Problem was that once the kiddies came along, there were no women left at home to take care of them, so that task got outsourced.

It worked great for a while. It was relatively cheap. Win – win (except for the kids who grew up without the nurturing they could have had with mom at home personally looking after them).

However, being a market driven economy, we soon figured out that there is a lot of money to be made in the “day-care” racket. As demand grew, so did the cost.

These days, two parents at work while farming out the kids to strangers to rear ’em is kind of a break even proposition.

There is a growing trend toward a simpler life where one parent stays home to raise the children, tend the house, and cook the meals, take the kids to their activities, do the errands, shopping, and generally run things on the home front.

It leads to a better quality of life in the long run, and financially, is about the same as a two-income-both-parents-working scenario after the expenses and taxes are factored in.

Actually, I totally made all of that up. I have ZERO facts to back it up.

Just a feeling.

#100 torontorocks on 07.16.19 at 8:56 am

Recent example. A house was listed at $1.9MM on a street that had some comparables in the 1.5/1.6 range. According to the listing agent, there was an offer at $1.9MM, however, the mystery offeror disappeared. Just disappeared. They lowered the price to $1.8MM….no offers. These closed or blind bids are the next thing that has to go – not the Agent and the vendor created fake hysteria to drive the purchase price. Thank goodness for at least listing disclosure. I particularly love the “this is 2017, so lets relist at the price we want AFTER we listed at a low price”…so logically, nobody wanted your house at $1.8MM but they’re dying for it at $1.9MM….riight. or you don’t sell it and rent it for a year because next year prices are going to shoot back up again.

one Air BNB is eliminated you’ll have rent normalization and a cut down in condo price inflation as well. Toronot may be where the jobs are but I can tell you it aint where the income is. Not everyone is banging out $150K/pa to be able to even consider these properties (with a good down payment).

this bubble needs its A$$ kicked hard and the realtors are sickening. maybe I’m generalizing but they are a despicable bunch. no where would you be allowed to conduct business with such massive ramifications so unfettered – maybe the stock market…..

#101 torontorocks on 07.16.19 at 9:00 am

and another thing – there may be some issue with what Trump said and Trudeau jumping on this Canada moral righteousness, but come on down to Bay Street and see the whiteness from the senior executive ranks on down. non-white men for years have been waiting for their day and now we have to step aside for white women to get their equal rights. remember – fairness means white women and brown men…so these virtue signaling messages are full of $hit…Canada is as xenophobic as the rest.

#102 James on 07.16.19 at 9:23 am

So the word on the street is the Donald Trump wants to bring down the USD to prop up the American economy. Trump is insisting that the USD is overvalued and is hurting overseas sales for American companies. Holy Shit I can’t believe it but he is speaking the truth for once in his miserable pathetic life! Trump desires to start propping up the economy before round two comes knocking. Of course manipulating currency is all pig and lipstick and it invariably leads to currency wars. He better be careful though if he gets the Feds to go along with this monetary policy change as the Chinese and Euro states are way ahead of the United States in playing this game. It is hard to say with the USD only gaining about 1% to other currency leaders in the market so far this year. He may not need to prop it up if the economy starts to falter. Well he was handed a golden goose by the previous administration and it was his to massage or molest. I’m thinking the latter of the two knowing his propensity towards self-indulgence.

#103 Ace Goodheart on 07.16.19 at 9:26 am

So T2 has decided to once again take a stand against the President of the United States.

T2 is a man of principles. When his principles do not apply to him. In his own life, he will quite freely and without conscience, throw women under the bus, when it suits him, and treat them horribly, when they are in his way. He will destroy their careers, when he is clearly in the wrong, but has more power than them.

But The Donald must be stopped.

Those four congresswomen D.T. insulted are as tough as nails. Cortez is from the Bronx for cripes sake. T2 was raised in private schools in upper class Montreal. Those women can take care of themselves. They came out on the top of their little skirmish with Donald, thanks to the way the US political system is set up.

T2’s two female targets are now looking for new jobs.

What T2 doesn’t understand is that Canada’s socialism is funded almost entirely by trade with the USA. So when he repeatedly attacks their leader (who admittedly deserves to be attacked), he is putting this Country into peril.

Trump could destroy Canada economically by spending ten minutes in his Oval Office writing executive trade decrees.

He could make Ontario into a bankrupt failed sub-sovereign state just by stopping new cars from crossing the border to be sold in the USA. He can destroy us, any time he wants.

Some men live by their principles. They usually also die by them. Evolution does not favour principled persons.

Some men expect others to live by their principles, but do not follow them themselves. T2 is one of these men.

#104 James on 07.16.19 at 9:38 am

#91 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:26 am

RE Smokey @35

You may want to read up on a Benford’s Law before making up numbers.
___________________________________________
That is the great thing about the internet you can make up anything if your a bored Old Man. I thought it was too
narrow of a probability with the distribution shown on the log of a variables. But then again his wife could come out the winner when the cigarettes take their toll. I would strongly advise the Old Man to quit as I have personally had a smoking relative die from lung cancer. Not a good way to go!
Oh and BTW, I have some skin in bitcoin and my margins are off the charts, but I don’t need to post them just check the market values. Bitcoin though is a fun investment and is really my only gambling as it is extremely volatile.

#105 NoName on 07.16.19 at 10:03 am

Hey smoker before you check out, what are the chances that you can help me grab one of those. I got noone in Tennessee. I would prefer reunion barrel2 but ill be happy if got any of the 2.

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2019/07/jack-daniels-adds-beer-barrel-finished-whiskey-to-tasters-line/

#106 Yanniel on 07.16.19 at 10:07 am

#96 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:45 am

“compare a portfolio of 100% SSO and 100% SPY ”

Sure. I’ll get back to you on this. Question: did you mean 50% SSO + 50% SHY vs 100% SPY?

#107 Sail Away on 07.16.19 at 10:07 am

T2 had to say something about internal US politics. Just couldn’t keep his yap shut.

Let’s see if he and all of Canada get slapped again.

#108 IHCTD9 on 07.16.19 at 10:18 am

#100 torontorocks on 07.16.19 at 9:00 am

…so these virtue signaling messages are full of $hit…Canada is as xenophobic as the rest.
___

You must be new to Canadian Politics. All the SJW/PC rhetoric exiting the mouths of Canadian politicians is about getting your vote.

Make no mistake, brown guys don’t get any more help than us white guys. In Canada, the “help” goes to the ladies. us straight Males of all colours are pretty much right at the bottom all mixed together. Those guys you see on Bay St. did not get government appointments to their positions.

You’re on your own buddy, don’t wait around for the government to appoint you a job because as a brown guy – you’re only one step off the bottom of the SJW hierarchy, just above us gringos.

#109 IHCTD9 on 07.16.19 at 10:40 am

#98 dharma bum on 07.16.19 at 8:52 am
#87 Tom Roberts

It looks like my wife is thinking of leaving her $60,000 a year job because after all income taxes, C.P.P, E.I., gas, insurance, car payments etc. she is breaking even maybe losing money to go to work. If she stops working, she will actually save money instead of losing money every month.
——————————————————————-

BINGO!

Give the man a prize. He finally figured it out.
_____

IMHO, in today’s family units, the Women have no choice but to work. You just can’t get anywhere on a single income in Canada. The surplus that dual incomes once provided has been usurped by lifestyle, taxes, RE increases, education increases and many more cost hikes.

I’ve watched a couple of families try to do the stay at home Mom thing, and they have all failed somewhere before 40. Modern life simply demands it – there is no real choice outside of getting somewhere – or going nowhere.

That’s the future, Women today are now just as much a wage slave as Men have always been.

Welcome to the club.

#110 James on 07.16.19 at 10:42 am

#102 Ace Goodheart on 07.16.19 at 9:26 am

So T2 has decided to once again take a stand against the President of the United States.

T2 is a man of principles. When his principles do not apply to him. In his own life, he will quite freely and without conscience, throw women under the bus, when it suits him, and treat them horribly, when they are in his way. He will destroy their careers, when he is clearly in the wrong, but has more power than them.

But The Donald must be stopped.

Those four congresswomen D.T. insulted are as tough as nails. Cortez is from the Bronx for cripes sake. T2 was raised in private schools in upper class Montreal. Those women can take care of themselves. They came out on the top of their little skirmish with Donald, thanks to the way the US political system is set up.

T2’s two female targets are now looking for new jobs.

What T2 doesn’t understand is that Canada’s socialism is funded almost entirely by trade with the USA. So when he repeatedly attacks their leader (who admittedly deserves to be attacked), he is putting this Country into peril.

Trump could destroy Canada economically by spending ten minutes in his Oval Office writing executive trade decrees.

He could make Ontario into a bankrupt failed sub-sovereign state just by stopping new cars from crossing the border to be sold in the USA. He can destroy us, any time he wants.

Some men live by their principles. They usually also die by them. Evolution does not favour principled persons.

Some men expect others to live by their principles, but do not follow them themselves. T2 is one of these men.
________________________________________
The 21st of October 2019 mon amie, that is T2 Judgement Day!

astalavista baby

#111 James on 07.16.19 at 10:48 am

If the Cons win, look for leaner government. If there’s a Lib-Green coalition, look out.
_____________________________________________
Liberals = left
Greens = left but no carbon footprint

Two lefts could be good as they will constantly go around in left handed circles never accomplishing anything of any consequence.
IMHO

#112 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 10:53 am

 James on 07.16.19 at 9:38 am

#91 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:26 am

RE Smokey @35

You may want to read up on a Benford’s Law before making up numbers.
___________________________________________
That is the great thing about the internet you can make up anything if your a bored Old Man. I thought it was too
narrow of a probability with the distribution shown on the log of a variables. But then again his wife could come out the winner when the cigarettes take their toll. I would strongly advise the Old Man to quit as I have personally had a smoking relative die from lung cancer. Not a good way to go!
Oh and BTW, I have some skin in bitcoin and my margins are off the charts, but I don’t need to post them just check the market values. Bitcoin though is a fun investment and is really my only gambling as it is extremely volatile.
……

I give you the ingredients to never punch a clock again absolutely free of charge you you still mock me.

Open a demo account and try it. It works.

Communists is all I’m saying.

#113 dorkville on 07.16.19 at 11:02 am

yorkville house that garth is talking about:

Listed for rent 2019-07-14 $3,750
Listed for sale 2019-07-14 $1,350,000
Delisted 2019-06-27 $1,100,000
Rented 2018-05-31 $3,600
Delisted 2017-11-01 $4,595
Delisted 2017-06-04 $4,500
Delisted 2015-05-19 $5,500
Sold 2015-05-14 $980,000
Delisted 2015-03-30 $999,000
Sold 2011-07-15 $810,000
Sold 2005-05-10 $415,000

gave up on selling it real quick. Looks like it was bought for $980,000 and looking to get $3750 rent for it now or 1.3mil plus.

Good luck sellers, cashflow is probably still negative assuming they put down 20% on $980 even if they rent out for asking

#114 Shawn Allen on 07.16.19 at 11:17 am

Government Debt and the Future

Nonplused at 77: I agree with you that terminology around borrowing from future generations is used loosely.

Agreed that richer boomers (as well as pension plans and insurance companies and also banks) have lent money to governments (purchased bonds) to cover the debt.

It would seem that the average middle class child of the future (when grown) will be paying interest to the then grown children of the rich who inherit government bonds.

You suggest that the debt itself will never be paid and that the interest will not even compensate for inflation.

The mystery then is why today’s richer people and also pension plans and other institutions invest in bonds that pay such low interest. At some point will there be a lender’s (government bond buyer’s) strike sending interest rates far higher? Warren Buffett has been “on strike” for years when it comes to investing in government bonds (other than parking cash in treasury bills).

#115 JonBoy on 07.16.19 at 11:44 am

IHCTD9 on 07.16.19 at 10:40 am

IMHO, in today’s family units, the Women have no choice but to work. You just can’t get anywhere on a single income in Canada. The surplus that dual incomes once provided has been usurped by lifestyle, taxes, RE increases, education increases and many more cost hikes.

I’ve watched a couple of families try to do the stay at home Mom thing, and they have all failed somewhere before 40. Modern life simply demands it – there is no real choice outside of getting somewhere – or going nowhere.

That’s the future, Women today are now just as much a wage slave as Men have always been.

Welcome to the club.

—————

Baloney. I know dozens that successfully handle the single-income strategy for their families. It’s straightforward – live a simple life, stop looking at the people around you and trying to keep up with their debt-riddled habits, don’t buy a new car (or two) every five years and keep your focus on what truly matters. Get off Facebook and Instagram, too – they are time wasters and they only promote jealousy and one-up(wo)manship.

I do it and do it well. Been married 18 years, have three kids (fourth on the way), and my wife is a stay-at-home mom AND (!) we live in the Lower Mainland of BC (highest cost of living anywhere in North America, I believe).

No, we don’t own a house here but we did when we lived in Alberta and Texas. We also have zero debt of any kind, a nice nest egg in our retirement plans (RRSPs & TFSA) and we are actually comfortable (rather than just scraping by).

How? Commitment to the idea and making it work, choosing a profession with a high probability of making a pretty good salary, scraping through the early years while I built up my professional career and rose through the ranks, and working to keep our costs low and our debt minimized. We work as a team and it works very, very well. In my opinion, we are happier for it, we’re more connected, we’re well-balanced and we’re much less stressed. We each bring our strengths to bear on what we do for the family and that makes for a stronger marriage and family life as well.

I can’t imagine my kids being raised by someone other than my wife and I. Scary thought!

#116 n1tro on 07.16.19 at 11:48 am

#111 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 10:53 am

I give you the ingredients to never punch a clock again absolutely free of charge you you still mock me.

Open a demo account and try it. It works.
————————–
Smokey,

Giving the ingredients (forex account + leverage) doesn’t help unless you give a glimpse of the recipe to make something of it. I trade forex for fun, my signals are over 50% correct. I just haven’t applied leverage to the account yet. Would love to see a write up what your triggers your bot is applying. You show me yours and I’ll show you mine. ;)

#117 NoName on 07.16.19 at 11:51 am

#102 Ace Goodheart on 07.16.19 at 9:26 am

You are missing the most obvious thing, is that its easy to be man of principle if you are rich. Especially when you desition and policies are only affecting rable like me… He is so detach from working stiff that is not even funny any more.

capisce? Or i need to pull crayons out?

#118 Westcdn on 07.16.19 at 12:18 pm

The life of lizard living on warm rocks vs a battle against nature – I choose the latter because I am (stupidly) Canadian. The narrative of climate change being solely due to CO2 has bothered me. I can see the effects of weather have on peoplekind – change! – run for the hills! The Jet Stream is misbehaving – extreme local weather is happening. I grant something has changed. I still see the Sun and water vapour being the big drivers, with, oh, methane. It is my belief that “experts” sell fear to feather their bed and God knows how they profess to have the answers and how they herd! I tend to think that, overall, today’s leaders create more problems than they solve because of their self-interest and dullness – Gore like influence peddling annoys me. I have to admit lizard brains are worthy for getting what you want and surviving – I have a big one that is tough to manage but it has saved me many a time. I see carbon tax as a tool for control and I am sure it will be me that pays. Seriously, what are the chances carbon taxes will be neutral to me?

I know Quebec is guaranteed 25% of Federal Government representation in Confederation. I believe this is why T2 abandoned electoral reform. I would get of rid of trained seal MPs – it should be obvious Canada is ruled by cabinet so why not drop the number of MPs to 100 with each province guaranteed 2 and the territories 1 of the hundred and have one Senator per Province – they are pretty much useless but at least they squeak.

The power of the Feds to tax is paramount in Canada – Quebec is happy with this deal. Switzerland seems to be doing fine and I like their governance. To think Alberta would die outside of Confederation is stupid. Quebec has far more to lose, and, Christ, 50% + 1 is good enough for them. To say I am just a redneck Albertan angers me. I have enough issues with our mayor/council and their governance than fight off central Canada beliefs – the Laurentians seem to think we are a colony rather than a partner. When Alberta became a province we had to fight for equality to get control of our resources like Quebec. Enough ranting for now… I am saving ammunition to make Canada matter – MCGA or Alberta.

#119 Pooch Lover on 07.16.19 at 12:22 pm

Whoa, Gartho. That’s some vid you posted under your bio page. How do I get a gig like that?

#120 DON on 07.16.19 at 12:24 pm

#30 MF on 07.15.19 at 6:22 pm

#17 The Wet One on 07.15.19 at 5:27 pm
“Racial profiling is never acceptable. – Garth”

Someone should tell Trump.

Ha!

-In my opinion I think Trump’s detractors still don’t understand Trumpism. It’s about economics and patriotism, not race.

The recent press conference where Trump did a good job of defending his controversial treats about the 4 radical Democrat congresswomen was an example of this. He was accused of being racist/sexist the whole time, but continued to bring the discussion back to denouncing the un-American racist views of the congresswomen. He did a great job.

MF

‘Un-American’? What did the four elected women say that is not ‘American’? – Garth
************

Yah, careful throwing around the word ‘radical’. The US is made of immigrants and native Americans.

Trump should be representing all Americans not just his dis-informed base. His wife is a recent immigrant. Trump seems to be all about the flash and is hedging his bets on the perception of a roaring economy based on a market that is driven human nature.

#121 DON on 07.16.19 at 12:27 pm

#31 Cottingham a bargain on 07.15.19 at 6:23 pm

Not humping at all even though I will fully admit that I believe RE prices will continue , or resume , escalation.

**********************

Just curious what are your arguments for continuous price increases?

#122 DON on 07.16.19 at 12:30 pm

#33 Greg on 07.15.19 at 6:46 pm

Hi Garth,

With the US rate cuts happening in a few weeks, how will this impact the USCAD exchange rate? CAD should appreciate, eh?
**************
I am hoping so…need to buy some auto parts from the US.

#123 Ace Goodheart on 07.16.19 at 12:46 pm

#116 NoName on 07.16.19 at 11:51 am

“capisce? Or i need to pull crayons out?”

Crayons. Definitely crayons……

#124 Sail away on 07.16.19 at 12:56 pm

Leverage

As mentioned by Garth a few times, now is a good time for cheap money, and investing the money allows the interest to be deducted from income.

With a 2.5% cashout mortgage in a 54% tax bracket, this equates to an effective cost of 1.2% per year. Not bad.

Assuming $1M interest-only mortgage and 7.2% return (for simplicity), this returns $290K in five years. And you have $1M available at any time throughout that period. The caveat is that you should not do this if you’re enthusiastically excitable; you’ll end up with Porsches and weed stocks and more debt than return.

Taking advantage of the little things leads to financial independence.

#125 James on 07.16.19 at 1:52 pm

#111 Smoking Man on 07.16.19 at 10:53 am

James on 07.16.19 at 9:38 am

#91 Tater on 07.16.19 at 8:26 am

RE Smokey @35

You may want to read up on a Benford’s Law before making up numbers.
___________________________________________
That is the great thing about the internet you can make up anything if your a bored Old Man. I thought it was too
narrow of a probability with the distribution shown on the log of a variables. But then again his wife could come out the winner when the cigarettes take their toll. I would strongly advise the Old Man to quit as I have personally had a smoking relative die from lung cancer. Not a good way to go!
Oh and BTW, I have some skin in bitcoin and my margins are off the charts, but I don’t need to post them just check the market values. Bitcoin though is a fun investment and is really my only gambling as it is extremely volatile.
……

I give you the ingredients to never punch a clock again absolutely free of charge you you still mock me.
Open a demo account and try it. It works.
Communists is all I’m saying.
___________________________________________
Old man I don’t punch clocks as I run the company and for that matter I don’t even have my employees punch either.
I’m already set for life my friend and like you I do this to keep busy but not due to an addiction habit. I hopefully have another 50 or 60 years on this little blue planet and want to see my children grow up and have grandchildren. Then I can say I’m done while I recline in my rocker on the porch of my villa in Cote D’Azur.

#126 Tater on 07.16.19 at 2:16 pm

Nitro and Smokey, I’ll save you some time and money: you have no edge in the FX market. Thus no chance to be profitable over the long term.

#127 n1tro on 07.16.19 at 2:37 pm

#125 Tater on 07.16.19 at 2:16 pm
Nitro and Smokey, I’ll save you some time and money: you have no edge in the FX market. Thus no chance to be profitable over the long term.
—————
Care to elaborate?
I’m not claiming to have an edge over the HFT algos being used. The size of the market and the amount of money it would take to manipulate things either way is huge so as a small fish being able to be both long and short, the ‘trend is your friend’ so to speak. There is the ‘carry trade’ which pays you to be in a position. For example, If I’m trading only long for a pair like USD/CHF which historically has danced around parity and did nothing, it would be profitable in the long term because of the interest rate differential. Currently, longing USD against CHF pays you $0.69 a day on 1 long unit.

#128 BillyBob on 07.16.19 at 2:54 pm

#15 Dolce Vita on 07.15.19 at 5:24 pm
Canadian election countdown: 98 days (tirade follows).

And as for your reference to Bowie’s “Changes”. Can’t come soon enough for me and I’m a Liberal.

I don’t care if I have to fly to other side of Italia to vote at a Canadian embassy or Consulate, I will, and it won’t be for Justin’s “Progressive” College Kid, planking, Sari dressing, Japan is the the new China, fake Kokanee feminist, SNC-Lavalin dirty dealing behind the scenes, pipeline workers are evil (hide your women), big mouth that pissed off China and America, $600 MM Cdn. MSM buy-off, $700 MM foreign reproductive rights (WTF?), self-entitled Trust Fund, rudderless, U of Chicago high or drunk performance with David Axelrod, agenda.

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Dolce, no need to head to a consulate, expat voting is easy as pie. Just fill in the online form and they mail you the voting pack when there’s an election. I’m a mail-in ballot here in Europe as well, due to never knowing with my schedule if I’ll be present in Europe when there’s an election.

https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/living-abroad/elections-faq

Y’know, life is full ironies. I’ve been living outside of Canada for over a decade (tax-wise – I visit on average every couple of months). I can tell ya, do a decade in a place where there’s no income tax and it’s not easy to ever go back to one where there is, not matter how awesomely awesome you tell yourself it was…I digress.

So, the Conservatives removed the right for expats to vote if they’ve been non-resident for more than 5 years. Which I actually agree with as a perfectly reasonable compromise: short-term expats still have a vested interest in the leadership in Canada, who set policy that can still affect them. But if you’re gone indefinitely, why should you still have a vote? Really, I had no argument with the 5-year rule. Sensible.

But then the Liberals restored the right for expats to vote, in an effort to pander to the demographic they perceive as voting for them, so now I can vote again. And believe you me, I will be casting my vote in the mail come the next elections for the ABJ party, aka Anyone But Justin.

So to recap: the party with whose general values I most closely identify with took away a privilege I had, and one I quite despise restored them, so I can help vote them – hopefully – out of power.

Poetic! hahah!

And quite agree with the analysis of The Jaguar on Freeland. No thanks, thank you very much.

#129 Cottingham a bargain on 07.16.19 at 3:24 pm

120 DON on 07.16.19 at 12:27 pm
#31 Cottingham a bargain on 07.15.19 at 6:23 pm

Not humping at all even though I will fully admit that I believe RE prices will continue , or resume , escalation.

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Just curious what are your arguments for continuous price increases?
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Curiously, I would ask you the reverse of the same question ?

Please hold the plethora of arguments already made on this blog , for price declines ,for past 10 years since none have proven accurate .

#130 Tater on 07.16.19 at 3:39 pm

N1tro- language was a bit loose, apologies. By profitable I mean a profit in excess of the risk free rate.

As for the USDCHF carry trade, take a look at January 2015 for one of the most famous blowups in FX history, in the currency you say has danced around parity.

Secondarily, the point of a carry trade is to sell a funder (chf, jpy, eur) and buy a HIGH yielding currency. USD is nowhere close to high yielding. You need to look at try, mxn, or egp.

#131 Peter Frankel on 07.16.19 at 3:47 pm

Actually, my wife and I worked and saved up for 5 years up before we had 2 kids as well and it is working out great for her to stay home.

I work and make $77,000 a year, we paid already half our mortgage in just 8 years from paying $3,000 a month to $1,500 a month. We have RRSP’s and spousal RRSP’s worth $125,000, TFSA’s maxed out $155,000, non-registered money $45,000. Our mortgage will be paid off in 8 more years and our savings, investments keep growing. We live in a decent size city 500,000+ population in Ontario where housing is not that cheap either $650,000 to $750,000. We bought in at around $525,000 for our house 8 years ago.

We are both in our late 30’s and I have been working for 18 years now, my wife stop working 2 years ago in which she worked 15 years. We got no help from our family or anyone. We did get financial plan from a great company.

We stopped spending hundreds a week on smoking, drinking, eating out, 3 vacations a year and downsized to one car not paying double car insurance, car repairs, maintenance, car payments. We saved roughly $500 to $600 a week by stopping all this nonsense. This is how we did it. We have no high credit interest, personal loans, lines of credit, payday loan debts. Those are a real killer to personal finances. Canadians underestimate how terrible this type of debt destroys their personal finances and lives.

It is very doable but most people don’t want to be disciplined and take the smart but taking more effort road of making their kids and finances a priority.

#132 BC Renovator on 07.17.19 at 4:17 pm

As a BC resident the more I hear of a Federal Lib/Green coalition the more I cringe. Albertans better look out, another 4yrs of a Recession could really hurt some families.