Was it only two days go this geriatric but prescient and well-muscled blog suggested (a) a Trump-Xi hug and (b) no rate hike? Hmmm. More bullseyes.
So it happened in Japan. Trump and his Chinese counterpart agreed to re-open trade talks aimed at ending the current war. The US will not impose a boatload of more tariffs on Chinese goods. They smiled, kibitzed, and Xi used all the time he gained by ignoring Justin Trudeau to yak with the Donald.
This is a big deal. The temperature went down immediately. The way’s now cleared for a US-China trade pact. It might take a while to emerge, but that’s okay with markets. Just stop the damn war. Thus Dow futures are up as I write this, making for an interesting Monday.
Meanwhile, as you know, China continues to dump on us. Canola guys stiffed. Pork shipments halted. The two Michaels in shackles. All because Canada unwisely did Trump’s bidding and arrested Huawei’s CFO (and daughter of the Chinese tech giant’s founder). Now we’re paying a big price for that, just as the US president is doing a deal with the company. American irony. We got played. Just ask poor John McCallum, our talented former Chinese ambassador that T2 threw under the bus. He knew.
Well, the trade war truce also has markets today rethinking interest rates. Odds were 100% the Fed would cut in July, with the expectation of a full 1% drop in the price of money within the next 12 months. But, nah, not so fast.
No trade war means lower input costs for US manufacturers and reduced consumer prices. All that translates into more economic growth, better job creation numbers, more upward pressure on wages bringing higher inflation and – bingo – no reason for the Fed to add stimulus. Stocks should rally past their 2018 all-time highs in the next few days, and could – as mentioned here last week – melt up.
Politics matter, too. Last week’s two-night Democratic debate slugfest defrocked the front-running Biden, exposed several of the leading candidates as lefty wackjobs and gave Trump a delicious moment when they all supported universal health care for undocumented immigrants, when lots of natives lack it. And then, the Kim Moment. Brilliantly orchestrated as a Tweet-inspired, ‘I’m-in-the-hood-so-can-I-drop-in?’ suggestion, it saw the first US president ever walking on NK soil. It resulted in a commitment to re-open talks on taking away Kim’s ballistic toys.
So what?
So politics is optics. While the 2020 election is a long ways off and anything can happen, this was a dream weekend for the White House. Trump and Xi. Trump and Putin. Trump and Kim. Saving the world. One badass foe at a time.
More predicting: Trump does a deal with Xi. Maybe next year. The US and North Korea sign a nuclear non-deployment agreement. Kim visits America and starts a haircut craze. The American economy shifts into overdrive. The Dow and S&P move into uncharted territory. People forget about rates cuts, since they no longer matter. And investors plan on four more years of tax-cutting, growth-pumping, inflationary, testo-drenched, capitalistic chaos from the oldest person ever to be elected to a second term.
95 comments ↓
You get a bit too much sun this weekend garth?
so things look good in the states. Does it look like no rate cuts in Canada, or do they still predict a cut by the end of the year
Next move by both the US and Canadian central banks will be up not down.
the Cheapest money in most peoples life time is available right now.
Trump made it clear, if one can believe what he says, that Meng was never discussed in conversation with XI. It appears that Junior was had, and played like a fool once again.
Agreed but not without one more jaw dropping mini panic but Dow on the way to 38-40 k
Have to be careful between oct- Jan but onward and upward it will be
Will eventually end badly but before that happens a great money making opportunity indeed
Trump leaves a lot to be desired for sure but at least he”s not into starting wars
Justin Marx got embarrassed again in a major event
What an amateur – we need to do better than this clown come October
Let’s go Canada
IRAN
Happy Canada Day to all the blogdogs.
How are your articles so better informed than anything on CBC? Really great blog today!
Trump may be a terrible president but he has been great for my portfolio! 4 more years!!!
TRUMP 2020
Biden looked like a fool but Kamala Harris came out strong. US elections are still a long way away. Put Harris or Biden in a debate against Trump and we’ll see what happens. I’m not convinced Trump gets a second term. We’ll see – it’ll be must-see TV for sure. I suspect you’re bang on though – Trump will avoid wars and make a deal with China running up to the elections.
You wrote in the fifth paragraph, by mistake i am sure, 100% chance of a hike by the Fed in July. It was the opposite until this weekend. Happy Canada Day
Yes, a drop, not a hike. – Garth
“Now we’re paying a big price for that, just as the US president is doing a deal with the company. American irony. We got played. Just ask poor John McCallum, our talented former Chinese ambassador that T2 threw under the bus. He knew.”
The Huawei ban is based on the intelligence community’s (The Five Eyes) conclusion that Huawei’s pieces of equipment are a threat to the community, as a whole. Canada got heat from everyone else form not banning Huawei 5G equipment in Canada: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-majority-of-five-eyes-intelligence-alliance-bans-huawei-equipment/
They can (or will) be used by the CCP to spy on governments, defence contractors and private enterprises.
Back in December, Trump wanted to use Mrs. Wanzhou as a bargaining chip. Remember the uproar it caused:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46533971
It looks like Trump got played by Xi, who succeeded to turn the Huawei issue into an economic one, and therefore, got what he wanted out of Trump, without giving any concessions to the US. Business as usual. First, Rocketman in Singapore, now Xi in Osaka.
Trump throwing his advisors, generals and Congress, under the bus and anyone else, in the intelligence community, who risk their lives daily, for a greater good. Again, Trumpism in full display.
#4 Poor Junior on 06.30.19 at 4:35 pm
Trump made it clear, if one can believe what he says, that Meng was never discussed in conversation with XI. It appears that Junior was had, and played like a fool once again.
————————————————————————————————
It appears that Junior was had, and played like a fool once again.Not once again STILL the the fool!
@#8 Lefty
“How are your articles so better informed than anything on CBC? ”
++++
Because the taxpayer funded CBC is too busy slagging pipelines, promoting anything LGBTQ, promoting anything aboriginal to lift their heads out of the politically correct sand and look at the real world?
@#6 Trumpocalypse2019
IRAN
+++++
Keep dreaming my “End of the World” fantasist.
It was really apparent at the G20 that Canada is now lower than a snake’s belly in a wagon rut as far as international stature goes. We are so screwed. I read the other day about a Chinese saying ” If you want to scare the Monkey (USA) kill the chicken (CAD).
China is retaliating against us and the USA is ignoring us. What could possibly go wrong?
Very interesting podcast about re in usa.
https://moneyfortherestofus.com/258-housing-financialization/
How the desire by corporations and individuals to turn single-family homes into rental units is pushing up home prices, making it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to purchase a house.
Great blog tonight Garth
You have finally “seen the light” with respect to the Donald.
I’m sure the CBC is awaiting their CNN feed to trash his weekend accomplishments.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Always interesting and very well written.
#4 Poor Junior on 06.30.19 at 4:35 pm
Trump made it clear, if one can believe what he says, that Meng was never discussed in conversation with XI. It appears that Junior was had, and played like a fool once again.
——————————————————————-
Of course. And China gets their pork and canola and who knows what else from the U.S. who will be quite happy to supply. We need China more than they need us. October cannot come soon enough.
The G2 bromance was predictable. They need each other to have a win at home, one for an election, the other for saving face.
I like your other predictions. Hope they come true.
My hope, not a prediction, is that the clown car that has become the Liberal party under Justin Trudeau is not broken come October (not a fan but Ted Cruz says the odd good thing, and by broken I really mean immolated by Justin’s reckless Progressive agenda an amateur efforts abroad…Harper was correct about him).
—————————————
Watched the news from Canada about the Sea Watch captain detained in Lampedusa, Italia – WHAT A FARCE.
They neglected to mention the so called Migrants were fine, Sea Watch is a body trafficker ship parading as an NGO that picked them up from Libya from a body trafficking transport (video shown in the EU to prove the point). The so called captain is a German girl from a very wealthy family and she is far Left Progressive (she makes Trudeau and Antifa look down right Conservative). She also RAMMED an Italian Coast Guard ship trying to push her way into port.
There you go. N. American MSM = Lefty dominated BS that is fast, loose and offering only selective truths that fit their agenda.
They did mention she was being jailed by Italian Police, oddly, they did not say why. Now you know why. Salvini said that had she done that in Australian or US waters…fill in the rest on your own.
Oh and by the way, we are fine with the heat here in Italia, it’s the tourists we worry about. We’re used to the heat. Colder climates like France, Germany, UK etc., not so much. You know we’ve lost 3 so far from the heat in Italia (probably tourists), France last year lost 15,000.
Trump wins again
Europe a hot mess (literally)
# 13 – Joseph R:
Your post does not makes sense.
How did Trump got played by Xi?
How is Trump throwing his generals under the bus?
The left is so blinded by the hate against Trump that they stop at nothing to sabotage anything to do with his policies, even at the expense of harming their own country. Isn’t this treason?
Trump gets things done; from all this mess that is manufactured out of thin air to hopefully harm Trump, he is the one that actually comes out on top as the winner.
He is the best president US had in a while. This guy actually feeds on the mess Pelosi and Hillary are stirring. The more problems are thrown at him, the more energy he gets out of it.
Instead of helping him and supporting him, the left is trying to sabotage him at every step of the way.
After all, on the international scene, he is fighting for US. Why would the left sabotage him on that? Isn’t this harming their own country? That just tells me how hypocrites the left can be. Who is Pelosi / Binden fighting and rooting for? US or China?
“This is compelling evidence that when it comes to the extreme ‘decoupling’ [of prices from local incomes] seen in the Vancouver housing market, foreign ownership is the primary culprit.”
At 8% foreign ownership, price-to-income ratios are 30:1.
Using household income figures from the Census did not change the results significantly. The charts use wonzy’s data. If we run a simple regression of these two variables, the R squared is 0.93 – which means that 93 percent of the variation in de-coupling is “explained” or “predicted” by foreign ownership, in a simple linear model.
the correlation between the unaffordability ratio and non-resident ownership is “strong”
“[A] family with a low declared Canadian income might live in a multimillion-dollar mansion. This particular situation would represent ‘decoupling’ on steroids.”
So we have these various scholars, with various data sets, all pointing in the same direction. That is a call for action.”
For sure, the picture of the day shows one big dog:)
Not exactly news Canada got played in the Huawei affair. Ms. Meng’s extradition is ‘on hold’ until 2020. However the USA should be cautious about thinking China won’t eventually pay them back. Canada may be the whipping boy but that doesn’t mean the main culprit will be forgotten.
Can we please drop Meng off at the US border already.
Place yourself on our side of the line and compare Trump to Obama.
You guys need a Canadian Trump. If that happens I’ll root for him, not hate him. Make Canada Great Again.
Trump 2020
#23 Leo Trollstoy
NOT literally.
Again, we are fine in Italia with the heat as is Spain and Greece. Recall, we are a part of Europe. And we are used to the heat. And the heat wave is not out of the norm for us and at this time of the year.
Canadian MSM blowing this totally out of proportion and Lord knows why – you know, their video of the Vatican with 3 nuns dressed in a white habit, 1 carrying a sun umbrella (that was the CTV’s evidence).
It’s worse, at best the same, in Palm Springs or Las Vegas in the summer (we do not have “water misting” every 3 steps you take in Italia as they do in Palm or Vegas).
It’s the “Paesi Freddi” that are not fine and tourists that visit here from similar cold climates.
Trump played them all, and especially Trudeau.
US will offer now (and China will oblige) to sell pork and canola to China, which used to be supplied by Canada up until few days ago.
And also, I have a suspicion, US will start selling China more oil as well.
Oh yes, the oil that US is producing a lot, and starting to sell, yet they managed to get Canada to self sabotage and not extract or sell.
How stupid can Trudeau be, to fall victim to US interests, at every step of the way. And Chinese interests as well, at the same time.
The biggest is this: I always suspected that the Sierra Fund, etc, etc, whomever masqueraded as “environmental saviours” to sabotage the Alberta oil, were in fact US oil industry interests to delay and hinder the development of Alberta oil…so US can get a head start and develop and sell theirs.
One thing is obvious: Canada (through Trudeau) got the short end of the stick from all these, US/China/Tradewar, etc.
US got some things, China got others, heck, even Mexico got some advantages and benefits.
Canada, it breaks my hearth to say, got the least, or none. Heck, we actually seem to have lost actually in the process.
The elephant in the room: 1.3G$ annual deficit, most of it structural, in the middle of an unprecedented economic boom, and that came to be at a time where Republicans controlled the Congress, the Senate and the White House. Great job, so-called fiscal conservatives. The next generations will pick up this mess.
@#22 Sweet Life
“Oh and by the way, we are fine with the heat here in Italia, it’s the tourists we worry about. We’re used to the heat. ”
****
Whew!
I was getting worried.
I didnt know if the rolling power brown outs or the heat had silenced you.
As for the “ramming” incident….please…..
You’re drinking the Italian media Kool aid and mocking me for believing the North American “propaganda”.
The only way to land those poor, unwanted refugees in Lampadusa Harbour was to ignore the radio instructions and run the blockade.
I notice there are no pictures of the damaged “war ship”.
But the penalty for “ramming a warship” is 10 years.
How convenient…..
Which, to be honest, seems to me a bit harsh when an Italian cruise ship captain can “ram” the coast, sink a cruise ship worth half a billion dollars, with thousands of people on board, and be one of the first to abandon ship while the Coast Guard demanded he stay on board, causing the death of innocenti…….. he gets “house arrest” while awaiting trial and then 16 years for CAUSING deaths?
And he’s appealing the sentence….
Seems fair?….. to jail a Captain who rescued refugees adrift on the high Seas and PREVENTED their deaths…possible jail for a potential 10 years ?
Or is it just a populist govt knee jerk reaction pandering to voters tired of the endless refugees from Africa???
Ramming a warship was the best they could come up with…..?
This all could possibly have been avoided if the Italian Navy had done what they usually do when there is signs of imminent danger and put their “war ship” in reverse.
May the Lord bless the president Donald J Trump and may the Lord bless the United States of America.
5g is very dangerous. Look it up.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/nghl-ntge/pall-to-eu-on-5g-harm-march-2018.pdf
In short the 5G network is more dangerous than all previous networks combined because it will be implemented on a larger scale and it will be much stronger than the previous cellular mobile communications.
(pulsating) EMF’s like 5G causes:
Three types of cellular DNA attacks.
Lowered fertility, lowered libido, lowered estrogen en testosterone and higher change of a spontaneous abortion.
Neurological/neuropsychiatric effects.
Cell death.
Free radical damage.
Widespread hormonal effects.
Increases in intracellular calcium. (this one is important)
Cancer.
Therapeutic effects.
Trump is going to have one of the easiest re-elections in history, in 2020.
What a line-up of whimpering losers, lunatics, out of touch with the working public, crusading for fringe social justice causes like free abortions for transgender men.
Is there a medical condition know for this type of mind-rot? Or is it simply called vanity?
It serves us right. We voted for an empty suit. Now we will pay the price. We didn’t like Harper cuz he was mean and had a bad hair piece, a baggy suit, and a pot belly. We wanted a good haircut, a nice suit, legal pot, and sunny ways. This is the price of voting for a silver spoon with zero qualifications and no grasp of reality.
Sounds like the US stock markets have a strong future ahead.
Can we assume the same returns for the TSX?
Well it looks like our silly little Justin is being a good boy: being seen and not heard. He’s being quiet while the adults discuss things. He doesn’t understand what they’re saying, it sounds complicated. He’s hoping if he’s a good boy and stays quiet they will let him talk about something he understands: banning plastic straws and of course gender equality. A bit embarrassing to have the world see who Canadians elected as PM
I don’t buy that anybody could be so stupid to make public ahead of time what was asked of Trump in regards to Meng. Did his handler since 2013 suggest this, knowing it would blowback on him? There is no other explanation for this irrational political act.
Who’s kidding who,Trump isn’t getting concessions from China_he is being played by Kim and Putin. Justin, at least plays by the rules.
POTUS Donald Trump is a good man. If only we could have real patriots like Paul Fromm or Andrew Scheer to run this liberal hellhole and deport undesirable beliefs. Speaking the truth should not be a hate crime.
I love predictions – especially about the future!
The one most likely to come true is the one about Kim’s haircut LOL
Trump re-elected? Only if Markets don’t crash, otherwise little chance.
TCC
Oh my, it almost sounds like Garth is warming up to the Bad Orange Man. The Golem of Greatness. The Tweeter in Chief. The man who made America great again.
I do have to say though that when I saw the video of Trump walking across the demarcation line, even though I know it was a totally fabricated photo op even worse than AOC’s recent trip to the boarder to cry over empty parking lots, I briefly felt that maybe there is hope for the world. I know nothing was discussed other than a commitment to start further discussions, but being the first US president to ever set foot in North Korea, and one of the few Americans to ever do so without a gun in hand, will forge Trump’s legacy no matter what else happens. Will he be the first President to visit Tehran? At this point it seems there is nothing he can’t do, protocol be damned.
And the Democratic debates were going on in the days previous. What a snooze show of totally unrealistic proportions. One candidate even suggested enshrining in law abortion rights for transgender women. Aren’t transgender women already protected by definition? And has one ever been pregnant? Could one ever become pregnant given today’s medical technology? Is this what it’s come to, pandering towards theoretical possibilities that only words can create but that cannot exist in the real world? It boggles the mind. Mind you most of the other proposals weren’t much better.
Take student loan forgiveness as an example. What a thoroughly awful idea. It’s a reverse-Robin Hood idea where the folks who didn’t go to college will be taxed to pay for the educations of those who did. And what about all the folks that paid off their own student loans? Do they get a $50,000 grant too? And the fact is there is no way to forgive those loans other than to raise taxes on everybody, including those who get student loan forgiveness. Talk about the government buying you a “free lunch” by raiding your own piggy bank. It sounds good to the economically illiterate though.
And why on earth are all of the Democratic candidates promising illegal aliens (that is the legal term in US law, illegal immigrants is a relatively new term and does not appear in US law, in US law true immigrants who have entered appropriately have legal status) free health care? There are something like 50,000 people in LA alone living on the streets, most of them US citizens and some of them veterans. Charity starts at home. It is preposterous that these candidates are promising citizens of other countries free health care when they have veterans living in cardboard boxes that don’t even food let alone health care.
And then there was the issue of reparations, another non-starter. To whom shall they be paid? There are no former slaves currently alive. How much genetic former slave do you have to have to qualify? 1/2020 like Elizabeth Warren?
And then 2 of the candidates attempted to answer questions in broken Spanish. What kind of a stunt was that? Sure in Canada politicians do that but we have 2 official languages. The US does not. And it’s funny, some US commentators had them speaking “Mexican”. What fools. Mexicans speak Spanish. It’s a different dialect of course, same as how the French that they speak in Quebec is not quite the same as the French they speak in France or the English they speak in Texas is not the same as the English they speak in England, but how can people mess up such simple facts???
The whole world is become a circus of absurdities. Only Trump can save us, and maybe Putin. The Democrats seem to know this because they are self-immolizing themselves. 2020 appears to be a forgone conclusion at this point. Trump has some big hurdles to cross in the coming year, he needs at least one big deal with either China or North Korea and some progress on the border. But if he can do that and stay out of trouble, it will be a landslide of perhaps proportions equally as unprecedented as a US president standing in North Korea and shaking hands with the leader of that country.
Trump is an easy man to hate. But he seems to get things done that nobody else can do.
While I detest the person that is D.Trump, I cannot deny that he may indeed be a boon to my portfolio. The Great Donaldo has taken to heart the words of H.L. Mencken, paraphrasing, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
Glad to see you’re finally coming around to the orange-skinned one, Garth. Far from perfect though he may be, he understands that free trade and lack of border enforcement are an elitist brew – Dems want the voters, Chamber of Commerce Rep types want the cheap labor. The coasts have turned to lefty fetishes but the middle understands they can’t afford these. Speaking of coasts, I expect Harris’ California background to push her over the top in the nomination battle (this may have been why they moved their primary up from June), but what passes for ‘mainstream’ leftism these days where she comes from is completely wackadoodle and may end up giving Trump 43 to 45 states.
O god I wish we could have our own independent foreign policy…
Trump Rocks
Yeah Things are stacking up well, and all is normal,sure…..on one hand if you look at the Group Photo, of the G20 you see a collection of Dictators and Outright Assassins, MBS, Putin, CCP, and on the other extreme, a Collectioin of Virtue Signalling, Transgender musings, and of course an income for all crowd… these are our World Leaders… Throw, in one very unusual US Leader with a smattering of Business accumen and Viola, our World Decision makers… What can go wrong!
This is just the first go round.
The Chinese have stated quite clearly that they will ignore all USA laws. They will continue to steal from and cheat Americans regarding intellectual property rights. They will go right back to business as usual stealing American manufacturing jobs.
Trump will have to slap them with tariffs again.
The negotiation process with the Chinese goes like this:
Trump: “We tariff until your people feel the pain and rise up”.
Xi: “So what. We will kill them. We let them starve before, they can starve again.”
Trump: “You agreed to honour our intellectual property rights at the previous meeting”.
Xi:”We lied. Go to hell.”
Trump: “I’m going to double the previous tariffs”.
Xi: “If 50 million starve, I’ll blame it on you.”
This is the negotiation process. It’s not a party.
Most Canadians have no idea that the way I have described it is exactly the way it goes down.
Canadians are naive at best.
Trudeau better ram this pipeline down the throats of Canadians. We need leaders who can deal effectively with social justice warriors who can’t comprehend why pipelines are safer than oil by rail.
Social justice warriors are also too stupid to figure out that their free healthcare is paid in part by oil royalties and taxes generated by the sector.
The country has been mismanaged. We should have a dollar close to par with America and we wouldn’t be subjected to outrageous produce prices all winter long. All we accomplished was to adversely impact the nutrition of the lower middle class.
You can thank your inept weak government for their lack of foresight.
The Chinese are idiots for targeting western Canada. Trudeau has been doing that for years.
The Chinese need to target Quebec dairy products. The Huawei lady would be one a G5 headed for Beijing in 10 seconds flat.
Trump wins 2020.
Canada is stuck in a vice. USA trade is still huge for Canada so Justin et al have to error on the side of USA. Nothing more to do.
#49 Reality is stark on 06.30.19 at 9:08 pm
“You can thank your inept weak government for their lack of foresight.”
I am on a hunger strike until the boss of this blog lets me do my “Foresight Joke.”
I cheated and have a 250lb head start…
M45BC
#43 Nonplused on 06.30.19 at 8:25 pm
Will he be the first President to visit Tehran?
—————
Eh, no. Read some history.
Donald J Trump for persistency of the Milky Way Galaxy.
In awe we salute.
Hey Garth, So do you also think gold is done and bitcoin too? Glad I nibbled on a few preferreds last week. Canadian Oil could be well needed now to supply the needs of this Gigantic Trade Deal. Aww yeah!
I’m disheartened. Very demoralized by the comments on this blog. You have people praising what by ethical and social standards is simply a deplorable human being, all for a dollar, who is the most powerful man in world. There is not one quality about Trump that is redeemable. The fact that people are suggesting that Canada needs a Trump is mind boggling. Did you know that the market can go up without having to sell your soul? People seem to forget that the financial system was rolling under Obama after saving apocalypse. Trump just added to it. Everybody always says it’s the economy, and that’s all that matters. That will carry only so far. Ethical behavior, accountability, and respect are required for every worker or they lose their job. It’s just time that they make it law for a president of United States, among other requirements.
#24 From Vancouver on 06.30.19 at 6:46 pm
# 13 – Joseph R:
Your post does not makes sense.
How did Trump got played by Xi?
He gave up on his threat of increasing Chinese imports tariffs in exchange of vague “commitment” of future negotiations on U.S. agricultural goods.
How is Trump throwing his generals under the bus?
The U.S. current ban on sales of goods to Huawei is based on the conclusion that Huawei is too close to the government:
“Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has previously said that if U.S. allies proceed with Huawei’s equipment, intelligence cooperation could be undermined.”
Source: “https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/pentagon-huawei-is-too-close-to-the-government.html”
I will let you guess (No peeking!) what the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff speaks on behalf.
“The left is so blinded by the hate against Trump that they stop at nothing to sabotage anything to do with his policies, even at the expense of harming their own country. Isn’t this treason?”
First, you do not know me, or who I vote for, nor may I fueled by hate.
Second, you do not know what treason even means, despite it be written black and white in the Constitution.
#53 majik on 06.30.19 at 10:23 pm
#43 Nonplused on 06.30.19 at 8:25 pm
Will he be the first President to visit Tehran?
—————
Eh, no. Read some history.
————–
I meant since the fall of the Shah. I can’t keep up on everything. So you are right, Carter visited the Shaw in 1977. After that all hell broke loose.
Happy Canada Day!
Our poor sop in Osaka. Somewhere between a shaky Merkel or spent May in significance.
All these Chinese tarrifs have not actually benefited the usa or got them more advantageous trading terms. What are all the Trump supporters celebrating?? Everyone occasionally pretending to want to make a deal? Same for rocket man. Everyones stalling until the next election. Talk is cheap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Fd-XEA_7mc
———————————————————-
Just in case anyone missed JT getting the cold shoulder from Bolsonaro this weekend..here is the video :)
#49 Reality is stark
“They will continue to steal from and cheat Americans regarding intellectual property rights. They will go right back to business as usual stealing American manufacturing jobs.”
– I agree.
“Most Canadians have no idea that the way I have described it is exactly the way it goes down. Canadians are naive at best.”
– “Exactly”? I’d bet $50 it didn’t go down like that.
Trudeau better ram this pipeline down the throats of Canadians.
– This line of thought is naive at best.
“Social justice warriors are also too stupid to figure out that their free healthcare is paid in part by oil royalties and taxes generated by the sector.”
– I agree.
“The country has been mismanaged.”
– I agree.
Thanks for your post.
Cheers,
Paul
People’s lives in North Korea will get better very soon.
And that my friends is great power.
One man, so many lifes.
One can only imagine the possibilities for Canada if had this great leader.
Live long POTUS!
Canada did not ” do Trump’s bidding” re: Huawei. We have long standing treaties with our protector and greatest friend. Trudeau doesn’t get to pick and choose between China and the USA, fortunatley. McCallum ? You don’t want to hear from me on that mistaken appointment. We’re just lucky Trudeau’s machine got shut down over SNC before he could appoint Gerald Butts to an ambassador level. McCallum might not be that bright, but Butts is pure evil, working for a globalist front against Canadian interests St the same time he was manipulating Junior.
Good Gawd Man, we sent Marc Emery to the US for crimes committed on much less!!! The Prince of Pot had shipped seeds across the border and the treaty wasnt ‘interpreted’ by a provincial politically correct, flavour of the month judge, no, Marc went to jail.
The Huawei Princess faces serious fraud charges against several US Banks, no unserious charge in itself. She is also charged with breaking a broadly supported international agreement not to support the maniacal and murderous religious dictatorship of Iran.
McCallum saying we should capitulate to China because of pork products is like the work of a lobbyist, not a representative of Canadas foreign policy. The forceful threats exerted on Canada by China underscores how failed Canada’s current leadership is in it’s relationship with our allies.
If Trudeau wasn’t such a unreliable,weak and dishonest trading partners our trade could easily be shifted to our allies. China’s strength is Trudeau’s failure.
the Top Dog wrote :
> … (b) no rate hike?
im confused. do you mean no rate cut?
Does anyone outside of Italy actually care what the temperature is there? I wonder, are there Italian immigrants in Canada who frequent blogs in Italy to bore the Italians with constant posts about how Canadians are used to cold weather? I hope so, just to keep things balanced.
Incidentally Dolce, it was 1,500 deaths in France due to heat last year, not 15,000. Neither number is inconsequential, but I hope you can see they’re slightly different. Perhaps you’re thinking of 2003.
This time its Different, Howard Marks
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/this-time-its-different.pdf
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Ah yes, optics. The 2 largest often adversarial nations on earth that couldn’t be more different, one with an illegitimate leader and the other self appointed for life have agreed to hold trade talks. What could go wrong. The first time a president is standing on North Korean soil, the symbology, what an achievement. How could any other past president disagree. And here we have Ivanka, perfectly qualified to lead the women’s suffrage movement for second and third world nation’s the world over, a world leader in bloom.
Yes, the optics. Look at Biden, now defrocked and close to being washed up apparently, a vice president picked by a black president, now responsible for Kamala Harris riding the bus cause Biden just didn’t do enough to stop it. :) (I’m sorry, trying to not stop laughing here).
Predictions are fun (sometimes) so here’s a few:
– A nuclear de-escalation between NK and Trump is made and NK honors it for a few months or more. Trump then pulls U.S. naval presence from the region, a strategic move that benefits Putin’s future aggression toward Russia’s south and western borders. I see this as a high probability as it helps Trump get re-elected and helps Putin, a win for them both and easily orchestrated by Putin.
– War with Iran is a high probability because of Republican economics (petrol dollar) and the rally ’round the flag effect that helps Trump become re-elected, around the Spring/summer of 2020.
– Trade war with China. This is hard to predict. It can de-escalate because it helps Trump get re-elected. Same old pattern, create a crisis and then fix it (or take credit for a fix, optics). De-escalation does not help Putin other than helping Trump get re-elected. I really do believe there is Russian expansion at play here. North Korean nuke talks are all about getting rid of U.S. naval presence off the pacific Russian coast, not a coincidence. This is the motive, all else from Trump and media is noise.
A full blown trade war with China would lead to a world wide recession that Russia would use as an opportunity to expand its borders, especially if it was timed with a U.S. war with Iran. Past Russian attacks on Ukraine should make Putin’s intentions clear to anyone with common sense but what stands in Putin’s way is NATO. So, its an if/then. If we see a full blown trade war with China, a Trump war with Iran is certain, as is Trump pulling out of NATO. A war with Iran keeps the Republicans happy with their support of the petrol dollar, it gives Trump the rally ’round the flag effect and helps his chances for re-election (if he wins the war, that’s debatable) but a full blown trade war with China will hurt Trump including pulling out of NATO and likely cost him the election so the only way I see this happening is if its an election Trump and Putin know they can’t win.
A number of questions remain unanswered. How much control does Putin have over Trump? I think a lot. Enough for Trump to leave NATO plus this thing with North Korea to reduce U.S. presence off Russia’s east coast, absolutely. Does it go so far as a full blown trade war with China? I think so, yes, Trump is really that compromised but it won’t happen unless Trump and Putin think Trump can’t win the 2020 presidential (and senate) elections. Still, Trump could betray Putin on this one so its more difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty.
– war with Iran… I see a very high probability of a U.S. resource war next spring/summer.
If a full blown trade war breaks out with China over the winter, a U.S. war with Iran is 100% certain. Trump withdraws from NATO and Russia expands its borders before the 2020 November elections. Putin likely believes that Russia’s expansion of its borders is best with the U.S. at war and in recession and… he is likely right. How Biden would react to this if he wins, who knows.
I’m less interested in Biden’s reaction as the real battlefield for the modern world as I see it is with climate change and we are losing badly. If we saw Arctic sea ice volumes and compared them to 5 and 7 years ago and know what follows open water in summer, (latent heat effect) we would have some idea of how this ends. In a few more years, the fate of the modern world as we know it in the context of climate change will be baked in. Less than a hlf a million survivors by the 2050’s is what I keep getting. I know… it sounds like the prediction of a crackpot but I think we will have understood the seriousness of it when, say, BC loses 30% of its province to fire by 2030. Then it won’t beome so much fun anymore.
I also predict this blog will end in a few years but not before the future of the world’s economy is accurately predicted here for the decades to come at greater fool. And I do predict 3 or 4 more years of normal weather (if you can call it that) before it … changes.
On that note, Happy Canada day everyone!
And the PENDULUM swings from side-to-side.
#58 Nonplused on 07.01.19 at 12:26 am
—–
FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Carter.
But to get to the root of your question, will Trump ever visit Tehran? Never. You see North Korea is seen as a oddity in the US and Trump’s rapprochement with Kim doesn’t offend any of his base, so nothing to lose but lots to gain. On the other hand hatred of Iran has been so ingrained in the US psyche for the last 40 years that it has become a pillar of identity for those in the extremely pro-Israel camp. Those folk, they vote Trump.
Meng flew into Vancouver with a 12 hour layover, and wouldn’t be sitting around, but go to one of them for a rest. The Vancouver press has a contradiction of words concerning her arrest. One said while the plane was landing, and the other while she was changing planes. I assume there were people about at this busy airport, so where are the photos or videos of this taking place? This happens all the time elsewhere in the world, but not in Vancouver, and why is that?
Garth, you are on a role! Keep the posts coming…
@#56 Andrew MacNeil on 06.30.19 at 11:29 pm
I’m disheartened. Very demoralized by the comments on this blog.
____________________________
Andrew just enjoy it for what it is – a comedy blog.
Not meant to be taken seriously.
#48 Robert Ash on 06.30.19 at 9:05 pm
Yeah Things are stacking up well, and all is normal,sure…..on one hand if you look at the Group Photo, of the G20 you see a collection of Dictators and Outright Assassins, MBS, Putin, CCP, and on the other extreme, a Collectioin of Virtue Signalling, Transgender musings, and of course an income for all crowd… these are our World Leaders… Throw, in one very unusual US Leader with a smattering of Business accumen and Viola, our World Decision makers… What can go wrong!
==================================
How does the saying go?
You get the leaders you deserve.
That statement has never been more true than in this day and age
#56 Andrew MacNeil on 06.30.19 at 11:29 pm
“I’m disheartened. Very demoralized by the comments on this blog.[…]”
#74 oh bouy on 07.01.19 at 8:33 am
“Andrew, just enjoy it for what it is – a comedy blog.
Not meant to be taken seriously.” If Andrew wants comedy, he should listen to Trump’s recent comments on busing and Western liberalism. I can never tell if Trump is joking or just being stupid! He just may be more ignorant than Sarah Palin (if that’s even possible). :P
@#35 Unhinged Trader
“What a line-up of whimpering losers, lunatics, out of touch with the working public, crusading for fringe social justice causes ….
+++++
Politically correct pandering by the Democrats resulting in another Trump win?
The predictions of Trump causing the demise of the Far Right in US politics seems to be premature if the Left keeps trying to out do itself with the “be everything to everyone” PC pablum ….
@#50 Cowtown.
“The Chinese need to target Quebec dairy products….”
++++
Maybe their saving that one for about a month before the election…..
:)
@#72 The endless internet conspiracies
” I assume there were people about at this busy airport, so where are the photos or videos of this taking place? This happens all the time elsewhere in the world, but not in Vancouver, and why is that?”
+++++
Its obvious.
Huawei hacked into the Vancouver Airport security system and deleted all video of Meng.
Oh and they’re monitoring you right now…..
Its what they do.
:)
This kid sounds like one of the dear Garth writers. If you can’t talk any sense into the house hungry, maybe a story from someone of their own generation can bring them a little clarity:
I Bought a Condo and It Ruined My Life
Nearly a decade after the collapse of the housing bubble, I’m still feeling the consequences.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/43ax8w/i-bought-a-condo-and-it-ruined-my-life
Where’s Apocalypse2019 when you need him?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-israel/israel-will-be-destroyed-in-half-an-hour-if-america-attacks-iran-senior-iranian-mp-idUSKCN1TW2MO
Down to 249lbs.
This Garth induced hunger strike is working…
M45BC
Great news, especially for NK. I can’t imagine how great would be to see all these people free of Communist terror.
Btw, I suppose it’s coming finally the time for me to hit the button and buy poor, unloved bonds. Make your portfolio balanced and great again.
#82 Flop… on 07.01.19 at 11:22 am
Down to 249lbs.
This Garth induced hunger strike is working…
M45BC
************************************
Careful there Flop. Too rapid a pace can bring on lightheadness. I advise keeping a beer to hand in case of wooziness.
F72ON
Another reason not to move to Vancouver. C’mon, you don’t know Vancouver flushes 800 million liters a day of raw shitty sewage and toxic hospital superbug laden sloppy dangerous goo into the Bay. False Creek, lined with condos , stinks to high hell at low tide, disgusting avoidance. What a phony crap-hole is Vancouver…and the St Lawrence is being renamed Climate Barbie Sewer.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/sunset-beach-closed-to-swimmers-due-to-high-e-coli-levels
#79 crowded – Meng had two homes in the area that I left out of the equation. There is something else to ponder, because where are the interviews, and further statements of fact? This airport departs 24 hours a day with crowds around, but no witnesses! Meng could not have been arrested near the airport area at all, but elsewhere.
Larry Laffer, I don’t know if you are a liberal or lean that way but most left leaning people I talked too and other in the Liberal Party of Canada from former years like John Cannis, many others in the Chretien, Martin, McGunity, Wynne Liberals loved touting how good lower and lower interest rates are great for Canadians.
You want fiscal conservatives or being fiscal responsibility, jack up the interest rates to even years 1998 to 2000 levels to start, 6% to 7% government bond yields. It is easier to rack up debt at 2%, 3% rates and even lower in recent years 0.5% to 1% T-bills.
You are not looking at the big picture, they want cheap money to rack up debts because they are not going to be there and know future economic problems will be from massive debts. They are promising everything because hey, money is cheap. I hear it all the time from Liberals, NDP, Greens etc.
They can’t stop taxing, borrowing, spending other people’s money because the people always pay the final consequences not them.
Finally, a blogpost I actually enjoyed reading.
Well done.
Happy Dominion Day!
(I don’t like Trump; I luv Trump).
Communist Party of China is exactly like a schoolyard bully.
If we don’t stand up to them now, the bullying and intimidation will just continue and even get worse.
Punch the bully in the nose and they might think about stepping on you again.
It’s basic human behaviour.
Chretien and McAllum think they are being clever, that they can stickhandle past China. But a bully only knows force.
Even Smoking Man knows what I am talking about.
Stand up for yourself now, or forever be subordinate, and start preparing the annual “tribute” payments to the imperial centre of Peking.
Yesterday Garth gives up on democrats. Today news breaks that Koch Bros & Soros G fund think-tank to oppose US forever wars.
Climate change for sure.
80 Not so New – the article is almost 2 years old. Be interesting to know how it has turned out. Also, it lacks hard numbers. No idea what the condo originally cost, nor what the owner currently makes. Just that he/she
has taken on extra jobs. And oh yeah he/she made six figures for a short spell. And parents had government jobs, but are now retired, but they cant help? It just all sounds a little….pathetic??
The Big Dog a Dexter Nukes horse.
https://www.allbreedpedigree.com/the+big+dog
#71 majik on 07.01.19 at 7:27 am
#58 Nonplused on 07.01.19 at 12:26 am
—–
FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Carter.
————–
Shah, Shah, Shah, Shah. No US president has ever visited modern day Iran. I’m hopeful that Trump stepping into North Korea with Kim means he intends to be the president for peace he campaigned as. Not really hopeful, but a little hope is better than none. Not that I think he should stand down from the conditions for peace, but it would be nice to hope there is some small chance the world can negotiate its way out of this without more bloodshed or holy crap nuclear war.
Steve French, you are right, 100%, brother. I never trusted China and people have short memories because they are still a communist state. People forget that because of all the trade they do and think they are somehow capitalist now.
You missed the most important prediction, Mr. T.
T2 loses the election.