The abnormal

As much as I hate to do this, a few words on BTC.

The blog’s trigger-happy DELETE button has seen a lot of action in the past week as crypto cowboys flooded here to pump Bitcoin and pretend they know what they’re doing. Of course, they do not. Nor does anyone. Bitcoin’s not money, not even a legitimate security. It’s backed by nothing and does nada. You can’t actually spend it, or even easily store it. The exchanges trading it are often flaky, failed or felonious. Just ask the clients of Quadriga. Ouch.

BTC is a lottery. A pure speculative play. As such, backed by zero in real assets, it has the potential for wild volatility. Thus it went from dustbunnies to almost $20,000 a unit in months, then collapsed to $3,000 and had since jumped magically to over $10,000. Those ‘investing’ in Bitcoin (or its digital spawn) may justify their rashness by saying this is the future of money and blockchain technology may change the planet. All possible But that doesn’t make this a stable thing to own nor a place to put precious capital.

Comparisons with the turn-of-the-century dot com phenom are strong. Investors gambled billions on Internet startups with bold ideas and scant revenues, simply because everyone knew the world would go online. It did. The Internet’s changed everything. It’s a true, historic human revolution. But most dot-com enterprises were 95% hype and 5% legitimate. They failed. Tech stocks ultimately lost 80% of their value and took more than a decade to recover. It turned out the connection between The Future and profitability was a tenuous one. Investors became crispy critters.

What’s different this time?

Not enough.

Bitcoin jumped the better part of 40% this week. Yes, in one week. But it also lost 12% in less than 10 minutes. In one day the price swung about 15%. Given the recent run-up, it’s fairly likely the mythical currency could lose a third of its value in the next few days. Or weeks. Maybe by sunup.

Why the renewed interest in this moister moolah?  Blame Facebook’s announcement of a new digital, spendable thingy called Libra, due to launch next year if it can possibly integrate with the existing global payments systems. The betting is an online behemoth like FB, rich in cash and resources, might actually find a way of making crypto work in the real world. Meanwhile the Fed, America’s central bank, has gone dovish. That means interest rates are expected to fall as 2019 progresses, with an easing of monetary policy, more economic stimulus and a consequentially lower US dollar. Gold has benefited. So has Bitcoin. After a long tightening cycle and stock market inflation, a bunch of money is looking for the next play.

If you want to buy BTC, good luck. It could soar quickly and make you a bundle. You could lose that in a week or two. The volatility is extreme, and the whole point of a 60/40 portfolio is to mitigate big swings and quell the unbridled human emotion that leads to crazed decisions. Normal people, in other words, do not own Bitcoin. And on this blog, as you may have noticed, we’re all normal.

$     $     $

While the Fed looks poised to drop interest rates, no such luck in Canada. Mr. Market has pushed the beaver buck up a couple of cents recently on that expectation. Now some economists are speculating it could swell from 76 to 78, perhaps even 80 cents, before the Bank of Canada falls into line with a drop next (maybe) winter.

Meanwhile, hungry lenders have slashed mortgage rates in what might be a brief but intense war. The Big Guys are under 3% on fivers, and loans are available through brokers at 2.5%. Given that inflation’s 2.4% this is, like, free money. Why would you raid an investment portfolio (up close to 10% this year) to buy a house when the bank’s cash is so much cheaper?

Well, this weekend could change things. Trump meets Xi in Japan. If the US and China come to some kind of détente, or understanding or simply agree to re-open trade talks, markets are likely to cheer. Stocks up. Bonds down. Yields rise. After all, 45 wants to go from being Mr. Tariff to the guy who did an historic trade deal, just as the 20-odd Democratic contenders start gaining public attention. Betting against America before the 2020 election is probably a very bad idea.

The bottom line: lending rates may well have hit bottom. House prices, of course, have not. But if you have to buy, borrow big.

131 comments ↓

#1 Dan August on 06.27.19 at 4:07 pm

It looks like the Japan abnormal economics to me.

#2 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 4:14 pm

Bitcoin will be a bigger and more important innovation than the internet when all is said and done. Change is what the world does best. Deal with it.

Garth: “The exchanges trading it are often flaky, failed or felonious”

I guess all the big boys preparing to roll out their bitcoin products will change that for us.

https://www.tdameritrade.com/investment-products/futures-trading/bitcoin-futures.page

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/overview

NYSE mother company: https://www.bakkt.com/index

By 2021 every major Canadian bank will offer bitcoin investment products. Book it.

A non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value is here, it’s out of the genie bottle and it’s not going back in. Doesn’t matter if you stay on the sidelines, bitcoin doesn’t know you exist and doesn’t care.

Enjoy the show

#3 Flop... on 06.27.19 at 4:15 pm

Regarding my wife’s Tech stocks for gold trade, the easiest thing I could do is probably get on the other side of the trade, and cancel everything out in the collective pie of ours.

Figure the worst that can happen is that she purchases The Divorce Button, now available at Staples, London Drugs and Canadian Tire, if she found out.

Hey Freedom First, your new digs got a second bedroom?

Never mind, the couch will be good enough…

M45BC

#4 Marcus Tatum on 06.27.19 at 4:28 pm

I still think the weighting between equities and fixed income ought to depend on age and volatility tolerance (often bizarrely called “risk tolerance”). I stick with about 90% real equities and 10% preferreds (a.k.a. “wuss equity”).

Even as a relatively young investor, I don’t think corrections are anything to panic about. Putting a correction into context requires nothing more than zooming out on the time scale to see just how inconsequential temporary downturns are in the grand scheme of things.

Even 2008, when babies were selling their eyes to pay for their teeth, looks like a blip in the rear-view mirror.

#5 Shawn on 06.27.19 at 4:35 pm

Both the FED and BOC will cut 25 bps in July. Don’t kid yourself.

#6 Shawn on 06.27.19 at 4:37 pm

It’s important to note that historically the 1st FED non recessionary rate cut is followed by an average gain of 25% for the S&P500 one year later. That’s a lot.

#7 longview on 06.27.19 at 4:38 pm

The elephant in the room is still DEBT. Never goes down, always goes up, just like taxes. Go figure.

One thing about cryptio’s – are they linked to debt?

Physical Gold – same thing…

All those corporations on the SnP500, how much debt do they have?

Eventually when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming naked.

#8 Ah ...the Normal brothers ... on 06.27.19 at 4:59 pm

Ab and Sub.

#9 -=jwk=- on 06.27.19 at 5:00 pm

Bitcoin will be a bigger and more important innovation than the internet when all is said and done. Change is what the world does best. Deal with it.

You are confusing blockchain, which will do as you say, with Bitcoin, one of dozens of ‘things’ that use blockchain technology…

#10 NoName on 06.27.19 at 5:21 pm

O bitcon again…

When i dident know anything about trading friend of mine told me, dont touch anything with volume less than 300k on tsx, especialy on venture exchange i did actually adhere to the rule for the most par while i did what i did. I did touched etfs with volume around 50k.

What brings me to the BTC, volume is 1200-ish bitcons traded per minute (yes 1.2k bitcons per minute). Funny enough chart measures trading in USD…

This one time i had 1000 share of doomed lithium miner on what i what i was geting my ass handed back to me so it was a time to sell on a loos ( yea i do that sometimes) lucaly its my trinkets money so it no big of the deal excep for my ego if i steel have it, and click later puff done, all gone. Just few buks left and bruised ego. Took wife for dinner with leftovers…

Volume for todays value is nowhere near volume when BTC held similar value few yrs back. Price raising with low volume not good sign me thinks.

If you trade at pace of 1.2k BTC per minute only works out to be less that 2m transaction for hole day.

Me thinks something of this importace and percived demand should trade in lot higher volume, 2.2x time to make it even with last time when btc was at this level or much to be of any importance.

BTC chart price/volume

https://imgur.com/a/twOJb64

#11 Unhinged Trader on 06.27.19 at 5:23 pm

Hi Garth.

This is the early stages of the new crypto cycle. The environment has matured and is actually being accompanied by commercial adoption. Technology firms like Oracle and Google are now preparing to interface their products and services with Blockchain based technology using trust-less oracles such the revolutionary Chainlink software, which allows real world data feeds to be linked to Ethereum’s public blockchain and allow for things like fiat currency conversions, airline tickets and even advanced derivatives instruments based on smart contracts.

You haven’t seen anything yet.

Chainlink will bring about the 4th industrial revolution.

#12 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 5:30 pm

There is only one blockchain. That used in bitcoin. All other uses of the word are people trying to scam others. A blockchain is little different than an excel spreadsheet. You can’t track physical things on a blockchain, you can’t use it for speed.

“Blockchain not bitcoin” is the collective consciousness trying to simplify bitcoin because they haven’t understood it yet.

The blockchain narrative will die and bitcoin will remain. If you see the word blockchain and they are selling something. Run.

All bitcoin has to do to be successful is exist.

It is the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen wrapped in a get rich quick scheme.

#13 Yoyo on 06.27.19 at 5:30 pm

The correct phrase is “never bet against America”.

#14 Bdwy sktn on 06.27.19 at 5:39 pm

. If the US and China come to some kind of détente, or understanding or simply agree to re-open trade talks, markets are likely to cheer….

________________
Won’t this make the fed back off on the need to cut rates?

Markets won’t cheer that.

#15 greyhound on 06.27.19 at 5:48 pm

One of the keys to understanding Bitcoin has to be Chinese capital flight. Any crackdown by the CCP on wealthy folks will likely lead to a price spike. Followed by another crash. Bitcoin still reminds me of fool’s gold — like Bre-X.

#16 Marcus on 06.27.19 at 5:48 pm

DELETED

#17 MF on 06.27.19 at 5:52 pm

#2 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 4:14 pm

” non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value is here, it’s out of the genie bottle and it’s not going back in”

-How is Bitcoin a store of value?

Also, all those things you mentioned can just as easily be cited as huge negatives.

BTC doesn’t care about me, but it sure cares about Ripple, or Ethereum, or Litecoin since they can be created out of nowhere and compete for the value you cited.

MF

#18 NoOneOfConsequence on 06.27.19 at 5:56 pm

The powers that be will never allow a crypto to replace a sovereign currency.

Cryptos are a long way from ever being a currency. Actually using a crypto for any type of significant transaction would be folly.

Stability is a requirement for a currency. Cryptos lack stability. Until stability is demonstrated – cryptos will never be anything other than lotto tickets.

#19 MF on 06.27.19 at 6:09 pm

#4 Marcus Tatum on 06.27.19 at 4:28 pm

Not buying it. 2008 was papered over by all kinds of economic wizardry: zero interest rates, QE, etc.

The next crash (not correction) will not be able to handled the same way. The previous.. previous large crash (in the late 20’s) saw stocks hammered for years, even decades afterwards.

I’m young too, but I would be lying through my teeth if I said I wasn’t panicking during the market doldrums of 2015 when oil collapsed and surprised us all.

Everyone says they can handle stocks going down, but very few people can actually watch their hard earned cash go down for years, and take years for it to recover.

#7 longview on 06.27.19 at 4:38 pm

Umm taxes went down bigly in the US just recently.

MF

#20 Normal people ? on 06.27.19 at 6:20 pm

Don’t own Bitcoin ? Now you’re just being silly Garth

Sorry it’s gone back up , … feel better ?

#21 Bob Dog on 06.27.19 at 6:23 pm

What about Doge coin? It better because it has a better name. Since it has dog in the name it will soon be worth more than that silly bitcoin. Who would invest in something with such a silly name? The source code is free but that has no relevance to its value.

Dogecoin is a decentralized, peer-to-peer digital currency that enables you to easily send money online. Think of it as “the internet currency.”

https://dogecoin.com

https://github.com/dogecoin/dogecoin

#22 Marcus Tatum on 06.27.19 at 6:27 pm

#19 MF on 06.27.19 at 6:09 pm

I’m young too, but I would be lying through my teeth if I said I wasn’t panicking during the market doldrums of 2015 when oil collapsed and surprised us all.

Everyone says they can handle stocks going down, but very few people can actually watch their hard earned cash go down for years, and take years for it to recover.

——

Considering my Canadian weighting is not large in my portfolio, the oil collapse barely had an impact on my holdings. Regardless, the Canadian market bounced off the bottom and recovered within a year, which is a situation I’ve been through on a broader basis and didn’t cause me any concern.

I don’t really plan on disposing of any holdings in the next decade, just accumulating more, so the movement of the stocks in the interim is not really of much importance to me. Frankly, a 20% decline wouldn’t even make me lose the ash off my government-issued spliff, much less panic about my holdings.

#23 Flop... on 06.27.19 at 6:28 pm

I wouldn’t go as far as saying Bitcoin has been a thorn in Garth’s side.

That would be wrong.

More likely feels a little bit of discomfort in his left bum cheek…

M44BC

#24 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 6:37 pm

#17

“How is Bitcoin a store of value?”

1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin

1 bitcoin will always = 1 bitcoin

Not being facetious. It’s as simple as that.

Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and any other crypto’s do not boast the sum of all parts value propositions that bitcoin possesses. The ripple can print new ripple out of thin air. Ethereum is an absolute shitshow and I wouldn’t know where to start explaining why it will fail miserably. Litecoin and all other crypto’s combined don’t hold a fraction of the security that bitcoin does. The total combined computational power used in mining(securing) bitcoin is the most powerful supercomputer(for lack of a better term) that has ever existed.

You can view bitcoins dynamic mining difficulty here https://m.btc.com/stats/diff

#25 Caledon Dave on 06.27.19 at 6:41 pm

I don’t buy Bitcoin. Instead I bought some magical beans from the strange looking fellow who lives under the bridge. He told me that if I plant them I can do some wonderful things. I can hardly wait to what happens. I am hoping that gold will fall from the sky. Butcoin is for losers and butt heads. I don’t believe people are so gullible.

#26 bitcoin nonsense on 06.27.19 at 6:48 pm

I am waiting to make the big money for a million bucks that is under development on a tax free island. It’s going to become a high demand unit so get ready, and hear it will be called the smoker’s unit coin for an investment of a lifetime, so bet accordingly, and you too can become a winner.

#27 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 6:50 pm

There is even a bitcoin mining company listed on the Tsxv. HUT.tsxv

https://hut8mining.com/

Canada could and should be a leader when it comes to mining bitcoin with all of our cheap renewables. It unlocks stranded energy and hunts for cheap green renewables. Any excess natural gas(instead of burning it off) or hydro not being utilized should be mining bitcoin to capture value.

#28 CharlieDontSurf on 06.27.19 at 6:53 pm

Overstock
OSTK

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.19 at 6:58 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-leader-japan/no-deal-brexit-could-end-japan-investment-boom-envoy-tells-uk-pm-rivals-idUSKCN1TS0T9

Bloody Hell!
Is this the beginning of the End?
Or the End of the beginning?
Only Churchill knows for sure and he’s dead.
Time to flog the Flat in Londinium and get out of Blighty before it all goes to Hell.

#30 Nonplused on 06.27.19 at 7:03 pm

I don’t believe that inflation is only 2% in Canada. A big ol’ can of Arizona green tea used to be $0.99 but it is $1.29 now. I think we are seeing some delayed effects of the Canadian dollar being so low for so long especially on US products. This would mean that the pressure on Canadian interest rates should be up.

The only things that haven’t gone up in price come from China.

——-

And now, back to Iran. I have concluded that perhaps the US military generals have convinced the war hawks that perhaps a military attack isn’t such a good idea. The speculation is that oil prices could go as high as $200 if they did, at least temporarily. That would be devastating for many parts of the world, leaving people unable to even get to work.

If the oil supply was interrupted more longer term, like say Saudi Arabia suffered major damage to its oil infrastructure, then all bets are off. We could be looking at something much worse than the financial crises of 2008. As the recent explosion in Philadelphia reminds us, due to the nature of what these things are not much has to go wrong before you have big problems:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/26/us/gas-philadelphia-energy-solutions-refinery-shut-down-trnd/index.html

Word is that it is likely that refinery will never be rebuilt. That isn’t too shocking, it’s been losing money for years (which may have contributed to the explosion). If a major facility in Saudi Arabia goes up it would be rebuilt as soon as the fighting stopped, but that could take years. The problem with these things is that once they catch on fire whatever parts are affected are completely destroyed.

So lets hope that cooler heads prevail. Watching the news leads one to conclude that there is very little room for a negotiated settlement to the standoff at this point so hopefully the stalemate continues indefinitely. Trump has unfortunately backed himself into a corner where he can’t really negotiate until at least after the 2020 election without appearing “weak”. The Iranians probably know this (as do the Chinese and the North Koreans) so I think the prospects for settlement are not good. Trump’s chosen tactics only work if you can outlast the opposition, which unfortunately no US president can. I don’t see that there would be much consensus to continue with “maximum pressure” under a new president whoever that would be.

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.19 at 7:06 pm

Hmmmm.

Time to invest in Lockheed stock?

https://www.citynews1130.com/video/2019/06/27/chinese-fighters-jets-buzz-canadian-warship-reports/

#32 theoryAndPractice on 06.27.19 at 7:13 pm

#2

—–
The diffrence is discrepancy between theory and practice… I think Garth is pretty right on his point. Bitcoin is a vehicle of speculation until it will not be..that I do not know when… ah remember you can have your own block chain money ie Canadian tire money like facebook libre as much as someone beleives….

#33 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 7:19 pm

#17

I attempted to respond to you with why bitcoin is a store of value but Garth has chosen to censor me as he disclosed in today’s post. Fully his prerogative and I respect/understand it. He may have more in common with the moisters than he would like to believe.

Anyway keep an open mind when it comes to bitcoin. Learn as much as you can and be safe with it. Probably don’t put more than 1% allocation and don’t buy all at once. Best of luck to everyone sailing the seas of consequence.

Of course you were not censored. – Garth

#34 Andrew on 06.27.19 at 7:21 pm

Whoops my posts just appeared again saying awaiting moderation. Apologies if I assumed my posts had been censored preemptively but they had disappeared in my feed. Hopefully everything will be posted for the sake of public discourse. Thanks

#35 Linda on 06.27.19 at 7:35 pm

Bitcoin is a gamble but – people LIKE to gamble. Hence the proliferation of casinos & lotteries. So one might expect BTC to soar like an eagle before it crashes. The ‘smart’ gamblers – there are a few – will fold up the cards before said crash. Everyone else will crispy critter. Plus I now have to check out ‘Libra’, which I’m presuming is not referring to the astrological birth sign.

‘Free’ money is why we purchased our last vehicle. Dealer was offering zero percent financing. We tend to buy, maintain & run till the cost of repairs exceeds the current vehicle value, then we replace. One day we may simply rent instead of owning & I don’t mean a lease, either. The aging population will pretty much ensure self driving vehicles will proliferate – safer & restores independence. Plus if people will drive distracted by mobile devices, self driving seems a no brainer solution. Text, chat, put on makeup, eat etc. to your hearts content while the vehicle delivers you to your destination & pays attention to what is going on. Sounds like a win-win situation to me.

#36 ww1 on 06.27.19 at 7:58 pm

Can anyone comment on whether the issues with selling bitcoins and getting your cash out have been solved? Last I looked, it seemed easy to get your money in and play but getting it out was sketchy at best.

#37 Ronaldo on 06.27.19 at 8:09 pm

#21 Bob Dog on 06.27.19 at 6:23 pm
What about Doge coin? It better because it has a better name. Since it has dog in the name it will soon be worth more than that silly bitcoin. Who would invest in something with such a silly name? The source code is free but that has no relevance to its value.

Dogecoin is a decentralized, peer-to-peer digital currency that enables you to easily send money online. Think of it as “the internet currency.”

https://dogecoin.com

https://github.com/dogecoin/dogecoin
—————————————————————-
What about this one. All you needed was a Visa or Mastercard and you could by all you wanted and if you bought before it started trading you got to buy it for a buck just before Xmas of 2017. It was trading on the Aussie exchange. It hit a high of $3.74 on Dec. 30th/17 and the promoters managed to extract $50,000,000 from the gullible fools. The price was down to .79 by Feb. 6/18 and today it is trading at less than 4 cents. Down 98.9% from its high. Note: There was no energy required to produce these coins, just a few key strokes. I believe there are around 79 million of these now. Roger Ver aka Bitcoin Jesus was on the board of this venture. They made out like bandits. So many others just like this one ripping people off. At least they didn’t waste any electricity to produce them as with Bitcoin, Etherum and others. https://www.investopedia.com/tech/who-roger-ver-bitcoin-jesus/

#38 Ronaldo on 06.27.19 at 8:11 pm

Oops. Here is the link for NAGA coin I posted about.

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/naga

#39 Tony on 06.27.19 at 8:13 pm

The Fed and the central bankers notably Merrill Lynch have been very busy trying to monkey-hammer gold and silver. They’ve become overburdened and Bitcoin has soared in price. The way I see it until gold falls in price Bitcoin will rise.

#40 espressobob on 06.27.19 at 8:14 pm

When it comes to a play like bitcoin just remember an old phrase that usually unfolds as it should.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_sucker_born_every_minute

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.19 at 8:16 pm

Its Hell!
The Broiler Oven known as Italia……
+40c
+50c
Record breaking Temps just keep coming like Lampadusian complaints.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1146054/europe-heatwave-2019-italy-weather-news-red-alert

When will it end? Sept? Oct? Ever?
Time to sell the Palazzo and move to somewhere with reasonable temps and safe like Canada……..

i woke up to a steady rain and now its sunny and 20 cel and a cool breeze here in Vancouver.
I think I’ll sit out on the balcony over looking the park and have another beer while my dinner simmers on the stove……
Ahhhh the life.

#42 Shawn Allen on 06.27.19 at 8:36 pm

How Much Debt

Longview at 7 asked

“All those corporations on the SnP500, how much debt do they have?

Eventually when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming naked.”

****************************
They have the amount of debt indicated on their balance sheets.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.19 at 8:48 pm

@#35 Linda.
“Free’ money is why we purchased our last vehicle. Dealer was offering zero percent financing. We tend to buy, maintain & run till the cost of repairs exceeds the current vehicle value, then we replace. One day we may simply rent instead of owning ”
++++

Total agreement.
Last vehicle I bought was 0% financing. Let the dealer eat the cost.
I usually own my vehicles for 20+ years.
Owe me nothing but maintenance costs after the first 4 years.
I expect car insurance for “human operated” vehicles will eventually become so prohibitive that only the rich will drive antique vehicles 50 years from now as a status symbol.
Personally I’m looking forward to a self driving car taking my drunken (smelly?) butt home as I snore in the back seat…….

#44 SoggyShorts on 06.27.19 at 8:50 pm

The day I seriously thought about getting in on BTC it was worth about $7,000(the first time it went that high).
I am not confident that I would have sold at the peak (although selling half at $14K is something I would do…maybe…probably not)
I wouldn’t have invested more than 10-15% of my PF anyways, and the ups and downs would have bothered me far too much.
I find I’m irritated when my PF drops 10 or 20K, so the swings that BTC makes would have ruined far too many days for it to be worth it for me.

#45 expat on 06.27.19 at 8:54 pm

The Candian Dollar is linked to the USD.
The USD as reserve currency decides the bulk of any move – not the Loonie.

The USD is dropping into a bear market technically and most likely fundamentally.

It’s drop is causing all assets to rise. Nothing more – nothing less.

Currencies are highly manipulated by central banks who try to deflate the value of their currrency by buying USD.

One can expect CDN/USD parity in the next 3 years. Just a normal part of the business cycle.

Bitcoin will be wiped out by Libra….

Facebook has won the Bitcoin war. It will provide legitimacy as it will be linked to the USD thus providing some measure of stability to transact.

#46 Spectacle on 06.27.19 at 9:27 pm

#9 -=jwk=- on 06.27.19 at 5:00 pm
Bitcoin will be a bigger and more important innovation than the internet when all is said and done. Change is what the world does best. Deal with it.

You are confusing blockchain, which will do as you say, with Bitcoin, one of dozens of ‘things’ that use blockchain technology…

– ———— ————— —————- —-

Just to make a slight correction , for the informed readers of Sir Turners blog.
Blockchain, is the tool of value. For example, might it be used to solve Major analytic issues of consequence for Humanity? Yup. As in solving the deadly issue of lettuce illness and death over last few years.

I give you, blockchain ( not Bitcoin! ).

https://www.itbusiness.ca › news › c…
Could blockchain have prevented the romaine lettuce E. coli outbreak? | IT Business – IT Business Canada

#47 Westcdn on 06.27.19 at 9:43 pm

My daughters – it was important to me that they could stand and fight. I suppose it comes from my single mother struggle. I have to admit my wife was far more practical and toned them better. She was a warrior in her own right. As people, we do like to be stroked. My son in-law has to deal with my daughter who just landed a gig after maternity leave that pays far better.

It puts his sh#t in a knot – I get it. I could give him lessons – you don’t miss what you have till it is gone, the shy go hungry … My millennials are doing well, hopefully I get to impart me to my grandkids – tough luck buttercup. As a parent, I believed I was raising adults so I demanded they learn and grow up – I know, it is hard to believe I love my family.

I am not an index guy. I buy the juice directly and bet against emotion but I have missed many easy layups because I l look at cash flow first. Those who are crying about preferred shares – tough if you don’t target. These things are not about capital gains. My portfolio got hammered 15% down in 2018 and I still underwater after a 15% gain so far in 2019 – math sucks. I am still in the game and seek to win – failures just make me tougher and smarter. I settle for small wins to keep my capital alive. If I get a 50% gain, I sell half and redeploy – the man needs to be paid. My attitude keeps me down but then you won’t find me begging or gaming a system.

Oh, by the way I am not afraid of taking Alberta out of confederation. I see blood on the ground and it is mine. China is hitting western Canadians hard – central Canada doesn’t care. You will reap what you sow unless you are a shirker. God, I wish they would disappear. The Chinese will regret pissing me off, if I get the chance. I wonder what Freeland is going to try next with Venezuela….

#48 Robert Ash on 06.27.19 at 10:30 pm

Since this subject is about Currency, I am starting to agree with Ron Paul, that Central Banks, are not helping the Global Economy, and frankly this currency manipulation, is far to extensive, and not unlike a divergence away from GAAP’s. It is another reason, to be critical…. In the past it seems, to me, that the Central Bankers and Policy Leaders, are mudding the waters, obfuscating the Market, and causing a lot of problems.. Greenspan started it… with everyone should own a house, nonsense, and it has been folly ever since… I realize having a Sovern Currency is very important… but manipulating same, is very problematic…Not really true Capitalism…

#49 akashic record on 06.27.19 at 10:31 pm

BTC was love at first sight from those times when everyone with wisdom about life were saying that normal people would never drop 3-digit $s on it.

Since I recouped the initial investment, I am learning for free. BTC is a great teacher to learn about greed and risk tolerance. She is testing me how I feel about fast moving 6-digit $s. It’s weird how detached I find myself from emotions while riding the 6-digit $ roller-coaster. I continue to sleep well and so far never felt any panic.
Maybe that’s what Garth calls abnormal. I would not know.

#50 T-Rev on 06.27.19 at 11:09 pm

Unregulated crypto, at least any in creation today, are toast. Not the least of which because there’s a very good chance that major governments will find a way to regulate and/or criminalize them. I would expect a ban on crypto mining to be coming to an environmentally conscious nation near you soon. But even more importantly, they will collapse under their own fundamentals- lacking centralized control, there is limitless supply. “But wait!” You cry, “bitcoin has a limited supply that gets harder to expand as the blockchain grows, and has a finite limit after which no more can ever ever ever be produced! Like, EVER!!” Right. But there’s nothing limiting Bitecoin, Bitcoyne, Bit-dazzle, or you know, any of the thousand crypto’s already in existence from continuing to multiply indefinitely.

Face-money, on the other hand, being backed as it is by major financial players and the worlds largest social network and expressing a willingness to integrate with conventional monetary regulation, may have some legs. But I expect it to end up more like Canadian Tire Money, but without that guy in the toque on the side. It’s an unsolvable problem for any current crypto’s: either they go legit and get regulated into obsolescence, or they go rouge and join the infinite supply crypto melting pot. Until something truly unique comes along, and I don’t even know what that looks like or if we’ll ever see it, real money backed and regulated by central banks will reign and crypto will be no better than the horse races.

#51 Lizard Man on 06.27.19 at 11:19 pm

The BTC trading platform is extremely flawed, ( some say nefariously so ) as has been reported on ad nauseum in many communities that follow such things. There have been comments on the parallel similarity to an old fashioned “box trade”. Yes, it’s an illegal activity between two market professionals in semi-unregulated stock exchanges ( like the old Wild West Cowboy Days on the minerals boards of the VSE and DAX), but BTC isn’t regulated and doesn’t trade on any exchanged, duhhhh, don’t wonder why if you’re a “player”. And if you don’t know the game, or the nomenclature , like what a box trade is, I’m not here to educate you, just to let you know that all exchange platforms are entirely honest even when they are between registered licensed dealers. None of which applies to BTC. Yeeehawww, let the funsters out of the box!!

So, let’s say you place an order , and it doesn’t get filled right away at your price but only later at a much higher price because the doorway had narrowed and an order couldn’t be filled in a timely manner? We’re there no sellers? We’re the sellers holding back? Did you just pay thousands more than you thought because your order couldn’t be cancelled? That’s what drives the price up quickly. Orders are only filled when they meet a sellers expectation. Perhaps only a finite number of buyers and sellers are trading back and forth in small lots to maintain a rising bias ( OK , that’s a box trade) and standing orders are being ignored until such time as price points between dealers are met.

If any of you pups think the BTC platform is working for then you might want to study the history of unregulated borders and why they had to be regulated to save the fish from the sharks. Disclosure, I wouldn’t buy Bitcoin under any circumstance. I invest in non hysteric equity that pay dividends.

#52 Linda and Crowd... on 06.27.19 at 11:43 pm

Zero financing is not free. The other option is to pay cash, or 3rd party finance, and take the “Cash Back” offer.

Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price.

Next time, use a heloc.

#53 Vampire Studies (doctoral thesis) on 06.27.19 at 11:56 pm

36 ww1 – why get out? You’ve got bitcoin! Live in bitcoin. Is this not how it works??

#54 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 12:00 am

#46 Spectacle on 06.27.19 at 9:27 pm

Just to make a slight correction , for the informed readers of Sir Turners blog.
Blockchain, is the tool of value. For example, might it be used to solve Major analytic issues of consequence for Humanity? Yup. As in solving the deadly issue of lettuce illness and death over last few years.

I give you, blockchain ( not Bitcoin! ).

https://www.itbusiness.ca › news › c…
Could blockchain have prevented the romaine lettuce E. coli outbreak? | IT Business – IT Business Canada
—————————————————————–
Would it be correct to say that Google is to the Internet as Cryptocurrencies are to Blockchain?

#55 Freedom First on 06.28.19 at 12:11 am

#3 Flop

Flop. Don’t worry. There is a solid 50% chance she won’t dump you.

Abnormal. For sure Bitcoin falls in that category. As do I. As I do not gamble. Ever. Hence my handle.

Freedom First

#56 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 12:17 am

Crypto and Blockchain is alive and well:

https://www.coindesk.com/1-billion-valuation-may-elude-ethereum-co-founders-new-blockchain-polkadot

#57 Bitcoin refresher on 06.28.19 at 12:28 am

I remember watching this before. A very good explanation of how it’s supposed to work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP_eT6E4os8

#58 Nonplused on 06.28.19 at 12:47 am

DELETED

#59 Stan Brooks on 06.28.19 at 12:53 am

Facebook crypto currency as proxy and extension for /backed up by the USD, simply brilliant.

And no, we are not Japan, we never deleveraged. Implosion will be epic.

The current expansion of credit is only possible due to the incredible gullibility of the sheeple, willing to sacrifice it’s life and that of it’s unborn children in order to be debt slave for life in exchange for a substandard dwelling while eating crap and worked to death in overcrowded cities, chained by that mortgage.

You know that herd goes over the cliff when the leader jumps? We are falling already we just have not hit the ground yet.

Yeah, we defeated gravity… And then comes the impact.

I bet this particular sheeple can be lied about inflation for quite some time.

Oh, I forgot, the fact of the matter is that nobody has any cash, just magic credit churned out by the banks in ever increasing volume that is backed by no savings at all.

How otherwise would the credit rise exponentially as savings exponentially decline?

Shawn Allen can shed some light on the mystery.
He is convinced that loans are based on savings.

In the meantime the barbaric relic as around all time high against the loonie, with it seems some good room to rally going forward, why would a rock gain in value against a ‘stable risk free currency’ is beyond logic, but no worries, we have the watchdogs at the BoC ‘carefully watching’ while scratching their balls and heads in dismay, ‘monitoring’ the inflation and then just lying about it calling it ‘transitory’.
Cherries at $ 12 in Wall Mart folks, in the cherry season.

#60 diharv on 06.28.19 at 1:13 am

Does not anyone know Trump’s MO by now ? He can influence the markets and economy to move in whichever direction he chooses and he knows it . He goes in like a bull in a china shop shooting off tweets and his mouth making threats and depressing everything . Then he will go in and back off or reverse whatever stupid decision he made previously and markets rebound and everybody is happy and he is heralded as the master dealmaker even though all he did was clean up the mess of his own making. The trick is in the timing . He can’t make a deal with China too soon because that would leave more than a year before the election and that would be more than enough time for the next recession to begin . And yes , there will be another one , the question is when , not if. But in terms of influence , Greenspan had nothing on Trump. The financial world is full of sheeple, and Trump knows just how to manipulate them.

#61 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 1:39 am

The Demoncrate debates. On all 100 channels, show casing their lunacy.

2020 will be a landslide for Trump. Trans people make up .004% of the population yet you would think it’s like 50% with MSM reporting on it.

Normies in all stripes and colors will vote for trump.

#62 millmech on 06.28.19 at 2:15 am

#41 Fartz
Snow blankets highway west of Okanagan, roadway slick

Doris Maria Bregolisse 1 hour ago
Snow in July this year I will bet!

#63 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 2:15 am

So Boston is having a straight parade. When the hell costume do you wear to this thing. What will the floats be. A white picket fence with a house on the float with mennonites showing how to grind a a grass cutting blade.

No idea how this will go down. The grand master of the parade is Milo. A self described flaming dangours fag. His partner is big black dude.

Milo has been branded by academics and MSM as a rasist homophobic, sexist , masangenous.

The group organizing the event goes by the name of Super Happy Fun America.

I’m going. I’ll be wearing nothing but a speedo, my belly on full display as people try to figure out what month of pregnancy I’m at.

Globalists hate humor.

#64 Neo on 06.28.19 at 2:36 am

superposition and quantum entanglement.

This will soon render all cryptology obsolete. It’s the only use for quantum computing but Bobcoin will be worthless. I mean it’s already worthless but even the evangelical bobcoin buffoons will have a hard time pumping a 256bit key that can be cracked in 5 minutes.

Kinda reminds me of Noah’s Arc. What sentient being in 2019 would swallow that cosmic debris?

#65 Jaques Pepin on 06.28.19 at 4:14 am

DELETED

#66 Dolce Vita on 06.28.19 at 4:27 am

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz

To the milk toast, slaked lime, rain soaked English anything over 20°C is a heat wave (and for most of Western Canada I take note as of late).

Italia is not worried.

Today RAI, Messagero Veneto, La Repubblica, Il Giornale, Il Foglio, etc.,…not a mention about the heat. Even Commie Il Manifesto not worried (and they worry about everything).

And, no one died from heat in Italia (except for Paesi Freddi like FR, DE and Northern Sea Peoples).

Why it’s called “Sunny Italy” (IdA = Reliability Index, long range weather forecast, eat your heart out Raincouver, well all of Kanuckistan for that matter):

https://i.imgur.com/DpcizuP.jpg

It was 38°C yesterday in Pordenone (sans Canadian Humidex, Inferno with the Canadian Humidex). No biggie. We have AC.

PS:

If in Italia now, eat lots of Gelato, slurp lots of Granita, drink lots of Spritz (or Bellini if in Venezia and you can afford it), etc.

And 416 instead of going to Italian Day in Canada, try the real thing.

Besides, Italia’s GDP needs a boost.

#67 crazyfox on 06.28.19 at 4:48 am

#30 Nonplused on 06.27.19 at 7:03 pm

We are headed for war. I’m pretty much certain. It’s not just the fact that Trump broke the agreement with Iran to allow nuclear testing to which Iran’s response was to quit trading the petrol dollar in favor of the Euro, its goes back to the reason why Obama brokered a deal to allow nuclear testing to begin with… in exchange for Iran continuing to trade oil with U.S. currency.

Iran threatened to leave the petrol dollar 10 years ago and Obama, instead of going to war, brokered a deal to allow nuclear testing and why not? Iran, without help could be 15 years a way from nuclear fission breakthroughs. Why does the petrol dollar matter so much? Because it explains why the U.S. would go to war.

First, some history. Its really important to understand the history behind the petrol dollar, the implementation of the U.S. dollar used as the world’s reserve currency to replace gold in 1973:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-affect-us-dollar.asp

Once we understand how U.S. currency replaced gold as the world’s reserve currency, we need to understand the benefits to the U.S. which comes mainly by a much stronger dollar through terms known as:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling

And, money velocity, which petrol dollar recycling feeds in a big way:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

How much money exactly? Most petroleum produced, bought and sold in the world is traded in U.S. dollars. My best guess is its got to be close to 90%. If world consumption is right with this chart:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/daily-global-crude-oil-demand-since-2006/

For easy math the world consumes 100,000,000 million barrels a day. At a $50 a barrel price for easy math, an estimated 4.5 billion is sold in U.S. currency every single day (@ 90%) but when one factors in recycling, it could be 3x this daily figure (@$50 a barrel) or 13.5 billion daily times 365 = 4.9 trillion annual. I’m using a 3 times factor for recycling but the factor could be higher, maybe 4x or 5x, I can’t say because there is no raw data that I know of that tells us what the recycling factor actually is but lets say its 3x. At current prices, the U.S. gets to enjoy ball park 6 trillion injected into their economy @ $59 a barrel average this year. There’s an aggregate to consider, 3x factor plays out over years but momentum builds… I don’t want to get to technical and lose everyone but my point is this. Being the world’s reserve currency i.e. petrol dollar strengthens the dollar by a lot.

How much exactly? Back in the days Bush junior was in power when oil traded at $80 to $100… and the world was burning 80 million barrels of oil a day the U.S. dollar enjoyed 40% more value than otherwise would be the case or so I’ve read.

Is a 40% or even 30% stronger currency enough for Republicans to go to war, to send the message that if world nations consider trading in a different currency, they will face a coup, trade embargo’s (the other major perk of being the world’s major currency, you can squeeze a dissident nation’s economy), whatever the CIA can cook up for the cause with every other regime change over currency and nationalized assets, or we can see diplomacy like what Obama chose, or one can choose war as Trump most likely will.

The Republicans will push for war through the senate ignoring the constitution’s right for congress to declare war. Mitch O’connel is on record for saying he doesn’t think congress is needed to go to war with Iran so it’s their plan. Then there is the question of the timing. I think it will be 3 to 6 months before the 2020 election placing this war some time around spring/summer of 2020. Why? to win an election through the “rally around the flag effect”:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rally_%27round_the_flag_effect

Americans really do like to support their war time president. And with Trump polling the same percentages he won with at present…. but I wander.

The Republicans will go to war with Iran for the same reasons they always do. For money. But here’s the thing. Climate change is real. So are electric cars. Resource wars on the verge of EV’s busting out world wide along with climate change, are the powers that be living in a time capsule? Is Trump administration akin to Kodak executives?

Trump can slow roll the tech domestically, only for so long and do so at America’s own peril. This year or next is the peak oil consumption. What follows are more EV’s on the road and as oil consumption wanes over time, so drops the dollar. Trump can continue to push old energy paradigms only to push the U.S. backwards in world competition in tech so greedy old geezers can make billions more at everyone else’s expense, or he can be defeated by those true vision of what’s coming and needed but one thing is certain whether the U.S. chooses Trump or not. The U.S. dollar, crushed by debt and later, less recycling petrol dollars, will be worth much less than it is today. As they say, you can’t stop progress.

What does Garth preach, diversification. Could have been summed up in just one word, I get it but where’s the fun in that? We aren’t just talking stocks and bonds, but currencies and how can one ignore that slow moving train wreck called the U.S. dollar which Canadians are so married to btw.

Oh, and if Republicans were smart, they would have just honored Obama’s nuclear deal. Why not? Power. Corruption. $$$ But war with Iran? If Trump attacks Iran or follows Israel’s attack on Iran, Iran won’t attack U.S. hard targets, it will be soft targets. Oil refineries, wells throughout the entire middle east, or so I assume. Oil won’t just soar, it will be in shortage and it’s quite possible the U.S. will end up in a religious war with the entire middle east save Saudi Arabia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Islam#/media/File:Madhhab_Map3.png

If the Sunni Hannafi’s support Iran, the U.S. will lose this war. Trump going to war over nuclear testing? U.S. Resource wars have almost always been about the petrol dollar (this and nationalized oil assets). Check out the series of lies as motive for war below and how close the rhetoric is to it already, its telling:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbdw0YdK0wA

#68 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 5:15 am

Bitcoin isn’t competing with Libra. Bitcoin isn’t going to be used for transacting or buying coffee. Bitcoin competes with gold, USD and central banks as a reserve currency. Using bitcoin for coffee is like driving a 747 to the McDonald’s drive through.

#69 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 6:04 am

I know I’m flooding the comment section but the btc posts don’t come often, I have to enjoy.

https://twitter.com/travis_kling/status/1144065350268588033?s=21

#70 Remembrancer on 06.28.19 at 7:36 am

#67 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 5:15 am
Bitcoin isn’t competing with Libra. Bitcoin isn’t going to be used for transacting or buying coffee. Bitcoin competes with gold, USD and central banks as a reserve currency. Using bitcoin for coffee is like driving a 747 to the McDonald’s drive through.
—————————————————
Come on, at inception BC arose as a trading coupon for untraceable transacting in Bad Shit, now that the hipsters and posers have moved in and gentrified the transactional neighbourhood its more like trading in Chuckie Cheese tokens. Sure you might have a US $100K in Chuckie bucks, but like you know, you can only use it to play skeeball at Chuckie’s. The tickets do get you candy necklaces though…

Always wondered, if its the alternative to fiat currency why still quoted in US$ or hey how many BC to Doge today? Ya, though so…

#71 Remembrancer on 06.28.19 at 7:52 am

#56 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 12:17 am
Crypto and Blockchain is alive and well:

https://www.coindesk.com/1-billion-valuation-may-elude-ethereum-co-founders-new-blockchain-polkadot

“True interoperability delivered in a scalable, governable protocol has real potential to push the dream of an open internet forward. We’ve been hard at work over the past year building [custom-blockchain platform] Substrate and development on Polkadot has progressed as hoped.”

————————————————-
Valley marketing value prop positional hyperbole is alive and well too. So you can buy SWIFT for block chains, now cool! And, read the article, the guys that couldn’t make as much as they wanted on Etherdum aren’t able to raise their “unicorn” (oh more flagrant use of valley speek) level of funding even after some mysterious Chinese investors came in on it? Sad!

For a blog that specializes in the hazards of RE as a single asset class the comments section sure is diverse… This is fun cryto coin fans…

#72 Captain Uppa on 06.28.19 at 8:17 am

I cannot for the life of me understand why people don’t simply hold a balanced 60/40 portfolio. You can become wealthy and actually enjoy your life without being handcuffed to the minute by minute mania and subsequent depression that is BTC or its ilk.

If the gains a 60/40 produce is not satiating enough for you, perhaps advancing your career to increase income is a more worthwhile pursuit than gambling with a make-belief currency.

#73 MF on 06.28.19 at 8:22 am

66 crazyfox on 06.28.19 at

Too long winded to be used for a simple situation.

-Iranian government is religious radical.
-Iranian government hates the west and the Jews (US,Israel)
-Iranian government will try to foment violence through its militias all over Mideast to deflect attention. Most prized and targeted is Israel since it hopes to try to use it as a rallying cry (like the Arabs tried in the 60’s and failed at).
-disrupting oil is an easy way to draw the west (us, Israel) into conflict.

The Iran agreement was trash, and fell short of anything useful. It was an attempt at appeasement at best.

The petrol dollar is important. I’d rather have the USD as king versus any of the other useless currencies used by the many dictatorships or banana republics around the world.

Simple.

MF

#74 dharma bum on 06.28.19 at 8:29 am

#25 Caledon Dave

Bitcoin is for losers and butt heads. I don’t believe people are so gullible.
——————————————————————–

But…I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows a guy, who’s brother in law made a killing in Bitcoin.

With solid information like that, HOW can I go wrong?!

#75 dharma bum on 06.28.19 at 8:35 am

#64 Neo

What sentient being in 2019 would swallow that cosmic debris?
——————————————————————–
“But I said look here brother
Who you jiving with that cosmik debris?
Now who you jiving with that cosmik debris?
Look here brother, don’t waste your time on me”

– Frank Zappa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp6LT2MdaPI

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.19 at 8:47 am

@#52 re-butt-all
“Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price…”
++++

Actually they didnt.
I looked at vehicles for almost a year before I decided to buy.
The price didnt bump up and the financing went to 0%.
Time to buy…..

Bye bye.

#77 Gerry Giselle on 06.28.19 at 8:51 am

MF, I hear you like Zimbabwe’s useless currency which inflated in hyperinflation of 500 billion % when it was all said and done. Sure madness. The main downside with a stronger currency is their bonds pay low interest rates.

I remember when all the hype of Y2K was over back in 2000, 30 year U.S. treasuries were paying 6.75%, zero coupons 7.02%.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.19 at 8:53 am

@#66 Dolce
“Italia’s GDP needs a boost.”
+++

Yes .

With all the populist political parties squabbling ….that 132% debt looming and the EU about to give the country an interest rate spanking……..

Yes it does.

#79 Oh Canada, I weep. on 06.28.19 at 8:55 am

DELETED.

#80 Tony on 06.28.19 at 9:09 am

Re: #61 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 1:39 am

What happens if the Russians don’t rig the 2020 election? Seems to me that Trump double-crossed them after the 2016 election.

#81 PoorEngineer on 06.28.19 at 9:19 am

” And on this blog, as you may have noticed, we’re all normal.”

————————

LOL!
Garth, never change; you are a national treasure!

However, do pin all your blogs regarding BTC and revisit them in a 2-3 years.
While I agree that slow and steady wins the race, and crypto is still highly volatile, not devoting any money to it seems like a risky idea…

Crypto & blockchain will be bigger than most people can imagine.
The reason why governments will force it onto people is because crypto is fully transparent and records are permanently kept on the blockchain. There will be absolutely no way to “work for cash” or hide money away.

Everything will be traceable. Forever. Big brother will know how often you buy underwear and who transacts with dealer (drugs/arms/etc) accounts. You will be able to know if the Joneses next door can actually afford their Tesla. Also, you can see how much your husband actually makes and how often he hits the strippers.

All transactions will be in the open. Public. Available to anyone. Anytime. Forever.
CRA and IRS would love to be able to tax every single cent earned. Governments (especially in the poor conditions they are now) WANT this to happen. Also, Caribbean banks will close down as there will be no way to hide money in offshore accounts anymore.

I suspect services in North America will become similar to 3rd world countries: where people do things for each other for free in order to prevent paying tax for services (i.e. you cut my grass in the summer, and I shovel your snow in the winter. You lay down laminate in my basement and I’ll wire your basement, etc)

#82 45north on 06.28.19 at 9:36 am

just watched this again:

Bitcoin Guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQegMA_kY9Y

#83 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 9:44 am

#72 Captain Uppa on 06.28.19 at 8:17 am

I cannot for the life of me understand why people don’t simply hold a balanced 60/40 portfolio. You can become wealthy and actually enjoy your life without being handcuffed to the minute by minute mania and subsequent depression that is BTC or its ilk.
______

Aye, kids these days should take note and start young. Like 25 years old or sooner if possible. Even a measly 500.00/month over 40 years at 5% is 3/4 mil. Add to to the monthly 500.00 as you go along and you can have a really nice 7 figure nest egg on the go without the insane deposits some do to catch up later in life.

Kids these days should expect a lower rate future. Also less pensions, later CCP age, lower OAS claw back points, and reductions in all retirement entitlements currently available. Both government and employers will be doing it. Could last a while like this. Start as young as possible to offset the lower rate returns, and to make things easier on yourself to boot. Try to bulk it as much as possible – you can expect less than everyone else before you when you hit 65.

#84 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 9:55 am

Oh Crazyfox, if there was ever an walking advertisement for hysteria you are it. The US is not going to war. If shots are fired at the US anything the first cruise missiles will go to Kharg Island. Few oil workers killed but couple million barrels of oil take off the market instantly. Iran collapses in mere months after that and it ends there. The Sunnis can riot all over if they want. The US wont even get off their carrier for this sideshow.

And well look at that, US ramped its oil production by double soon to be triple so they don’t care what ME crude prices do. But I am sure China does.

Trump is neutering 3 threats at once. To achieve a permanent settlement between Israel and Palestinians and a halt to the war in Syria, Iran must be stopped first. The best way to do that is economically backed by military. Underway. China needs that ME oil bad now that Venezuala is out of the market. So second checkpoint being worked on. And little kimmy can sit in his throne room and watch Trump bring both Iran and China to its knees at once. I bet he is drafting some nice comments to Trump as we speak.

How come lefties are so bad at putting the global pieces together?

#85 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 9:56 am

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.19 at 8:47 am
@#52 re-butt-all
“Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price…”
++++

Actually they didnt.
I looked at vehicles for almost a year before I decided to buy.
The price didnt bump up and the financing went to 0%.
Time to buy…..

Bye bye.
_____

Do you drive a GM? Even with trucks being the single most sought after vehicles in North America, the financing deals are still sweet – especially over at GM. GM has to compete with Ford, and it looks like free money is one of the ways they move ’em off the lot.

I know a guy who recently got a 2019 Silverado 1500 SLT 4dr/4WD (sweet machine) – and says financing was 0.0%. Another guy here at work with a brand new F150 a couple years ago says he also got 0.0% – says payments are a little over 300.00 B/W.

If this kind of stuff is actually happening on Trucks (lending at less than inflation) – it makes buying new pretty tempting!

#86 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 10:05 am

#81 Poor Engineer

I suspect services in North America will become similar to 3rd world countries: where people do things for each other for free in order to prevent paying tax for services (i.e. you cut my grass in the summer, and I shovel your snow in the winter. You lay down laminate in my basement and I’ll wire your basement, etc)
————————————————————–
Already happening and why it is so valuable to be versatile in many areas. But I still won’t fill my own cavities IH.

#87 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 10:05 am

And regarding climate change, stop with the hysteria around that too. This has been one of the coolest springs in the past few yrs for most of Canada. The arctic ice pack is 30% larger this year heading into July. Environment Canada confirmed it.

Climate changes means, er, the climate is changing. As you confirmed. – Garth

#88 PastThePeak on 06.28.19 at 10:06 am

@ Andrew,

I have 3 main issues to BTC / crypto (in terms of my involvement with them from an investment perspective)

1) Why will BTC remain a store of value in a universe where there can be infinite cryptos, each with infinite units. Why not FB’s Libra? Or Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, etc…

I understand the BTC argument that *it* only has a finite amount of “coins”, but that still doesn’t really address the question. It still only has value if perceived to, and while this is true of anything, the fact that other cryptos can be developed so easily it seems way to risky.

2) Per #51 Lizard Man on 06.27.19 at 11:19 pm, the risks for an investor are high. It truly is a wild west, and the risk of fraud and theft are high. Some might say “that is the nature of being early”, but fine for those that want to gamble. But it is a clear reason why BTC is not an investment for the vast majority of people.

3) Energy requirements (ever increasing). There is a high risk that something that uses as much energy as the BTC network, that keeps increasing, will be regulated by some (many) countries.

An another note, I would like to hear from @TCC Contrarian what he things of BTC.

#89 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 10:22 am

#68 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 5:15 am
Bitcoin isn’t competing with Libra. Bitcoin isn’t going to be used for transacting or buying coffee. Bitcoin competes with gold, USD and central banks as a reserve currency. Using bitcoin for coffee is like driving a 747 to the McDonald’s drive through.
——————————————————————
Andrew, how much does it cost to produce 1 bitcoin vs 1 ounce of gold?

#90 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 10:25 am

#81 PoorEngineer on 06.28.19 at 9:19 am
___

I don’t think so. You are not considering if the people want something like bitcoin and block-chain tech that allows full transparency to their own detriment.

No one with a brain will want this, so it will be hugely problematic for the government to put it in place. Here in Canada, it would be just way too easy to switch to greenbacks. Everyone of us would gladly accept payment for anything in US dollars.

Remember history:

France went postal with taxes on the rich, and had to repeal them.
Ontario cranked taxes on Tobacco and lost 75% of the entire market (and counting).
The USA banned the consumption of alcohol, and had to repeal it.
Trudeau increased taxes on the rich to give the middle class a break. He got zero new revenues.

Why? In all cases, because the people did not want these things in their lives, and between them and the free (“alternative”) markets – found a way around them.

For myself, I’d almost welcome draconian controls on money and taxes. It would blow the black market wide open, and my costs for many things would plummet. I might even end up with a bag full of greenbacks myself.

Policing the alternative markets would be impossibly expensive, and the toll on the above board business world (who would be busy paying every last cent of every single new tax) would mount quickly as the gap between their selling prices and the black market widened. The result would be suffering on a grand scale – and zero new revenues.

#91 Vampire Studies (doctoral thesis) on 06.28.19 at 10:29 am

59 Stan

“Facebook crypto currency as proxy and extension for /backed up by the USD, simply brilliant. ”

so what’s the point of it if it needs backing by USD?

#92 MF on 06.28.19 at 10:31 am

8 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 5:15

Thanks for the explanation on BTC by the way.

None of us knows the future with certainty. BTC is part of the future, whether it will be a good investment or not is an unknown still.

MF

#93 MF on 06.28.19 at 10:32 am

7 Gerry Giselle on 06.28.19 at 8

Lol I’m worth billions (in Zimbabwe currency).

What’s not too like?

MF

#94 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 10:34 am

#83 IHCTD9

If this kind of stuff is actually happening on Trucks (lending at less than inflation) – it makes buying new pretty tempting!
——————————————————————-
Stick to buying used IH, I bought my 2006 Silverado in 2013 for $19,000 complete with tow package and 10 ply tires when it had only 45000 Km’s. The guy had paid $55,000 for it with all the extras including canopy. Unfortunately he was unable to drive any longer due to illness. I gave him what he was asking. Been driving it now for 6 years and still only 85000 km. Every time I bring it in for an oil change they want to buy it from me. As you can tell, I don’t use it much but it hasn’t cost me much either and still looks like new. Best truck ever and my 4th GM.

#95 Mattl on 06.28.19 at 10:48 am

#52 Linda and Crowd… on 06.27.19 at 11:43 pm
Zero financing is not free. The other option is to pay cash, or 3rd party finance, and take the “Cash Back” offer.

Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price.

—————————————————————-

Historically this is true but with borrowing rates so low, sometimes free is actually or close to free.

I just bought a compact tractor and asked for the cash price. Was the equivalent of a 1.3% financing. I said, ya I will take zero percent over 7 years and make 7% (10 this year) on my 30K.

It really is a great time to borrow money if you are responsible and can make your payments.

#96 Mattl on 06.28.19 at 10:50 am

Just to add, the “never take on debt” crowd has really missed the boat. Last ten year returns have been incredible, and borrowing costs historically low. I REALLY wish I understood more about leverage 10 years ago, was so scared of debt I missed out on some great opportunities.

#97 Flop... on 06.28.19 at 10:55 am

Here, hold this, I’ll make it worth your while…

M45BC

“The Biggest Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt – In One Chart

In 2019, the U.S. national debt reached a new milestone of $22 trillion. Taking on debt enables the government to increase its spending on various domestic programs or make up shortfalls from tax revenue. One of the main ways the U.S. government borrows money is by issuing treasury securities, which represent an “IOU” from the government to the investor. While some of those securities are held by government agencies and the public, many are also held by foreign countries. Our latest visualization takes a look at which foreign countries hold the most treasury securities, and therefore own the most U.S. debt.

The total amount of treasury securities issued to foreign countries is $6.433 trillion.

China currently holds the most U.S. debt due to a variety of factors, including China’s desire to keep the yuan weak compared to the dollar.

Most of the treasury securities held by other countries are in the form of treasury notes and bonds, rather than treasury bills.

The top five countries in the visualization (China, Japan, Brazil, United Kingdom, and Ireland) account for almost half of the treasury securities held by foreign countries.
The information in the visualization comes from the Treasury Department’s database for Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities, as of April 2019. Each country that holds U.S. debt is represented as a proportional share of the circle. The two numbers listed underneath each country’s name indicate the monetary value of the U.S. treasury securities held by that country and the percentage of U.S. debt held compared to all foreign countries.

Top 10 Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt

1. China – $1,113 billion
2. Japan – $1, 064 billion
3. Brazil – $306.7 billion
4. United Kingdom – $300.8 billion
5. Ireland – $269.7 billion
6. Switzerland – $226.9 billion
7. Luxembourg – $223.7 billion
8. Cayman Islands – $217.2 billion
9. Hong Kong – $205.9 billion
10. Belgium – $179.8 billion

Two of the main types of treasury securities are also known as treasury bills and treasury bonds. A treasury bill (T-Bill) is a security purchased at a discount (such as paying $900 for a $1,000 bill), which is redeemed for the face value upon maturity. T-bills typically mature in one year or less. By contrast, a treasury bond (T-bond) matures after 10 years or more, and makes semiannual interest payments to bondholders. While returns for both of these are generally low, they are considered “risk-free” investments since they have the full backing of the U.S. government.

If tax cuts and federal spending boosts are approved, more treasury securities could be issued and the U.S. national debt could increase even more. Recently, the government has also been paying lower interest rates for some treasury securities, which means bond prices have been rising. Some possible reasons include the trade war with China, tensions with Iran, and a global economic slowdown. Despite the rising national debt and economic concerns, the U.S. still has a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than many other countries.”

28 June 2019

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign-holders-of-usa-debt

#98 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 10:55 am

#86 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 10:05 am

Already happening and why it is so valuable to be versatile in many areas. But I still won’t fill my own cavities IH.
____

You can consider that one a thought experiment :).

You are right, I see it all over all the time. Folks selling their trade skills on the side on the weekends and evenings. $40.00/hr to build a deck or frame a garage is cheap, but still a pretty good pile of cash for the guy doing the work.

For myself, I just did a roofing job (on my own house) that would have been about 10-12K all in, for less than 2K in materials. The sore legs and back are good as new again after a couple of days, and I’ve already forgot about the physical suffering and sweat involved in doing the job. Now I look up every time I come home and feel great seeing that nice new roof (and knowing it’ll be a long while before I’ll have to do that job again!).

I’ve saved tens of thousands over the last two decades doing my own work: brakes, wheel bearings, starters alternators, timing belts, oil changes, exhaust, electrical, plumbing, decks, roofs, a house addition, renovations, HVAC, widows, siding, blah blah blah, way too much to list. I got my kids helping me with all this stuff now too :). I’ve always got something on the go!

#99 Eks dee Siple on 06.28.19 at 10:58 am

The banks are full custodians of, and control the money supply. Wolves in charge of the hen house. Bitcoin will destroy this monopoly and essentially cause the banks to become obsolete. Like typewriters. The inevitable and ultimate disruption. I am not surprised that those folks on this blog whose income depends on the banks are failing to understand this. Scaremongering. “There will be money laundering, there will be arms and drug deals, there will be terrorism, there will be scam artists, etc..” Because these things not already happening, right?

#100 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 11:04 am

Trump struts around the G20 like an emperor god and Trudeau gets seated next to Xi doesn’t talk to him or even look at him. Like we don’t have any issues to discuss? This is the leadership we want?

#101 PA on 06.28.19 at 11:09 am

#74 dharma bum on 06.28.19 at 8:29 am
—————
But…I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows a guy, who’s brother in law made a killing in Bitcoin.

With solid information like that, HOW can I go wrong?!

———–

You know Uncle Bert?

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.19 at 11:17 am

@#85 IHCTD9

Almost got an F-150 but I got a Tacoma instead.
The new Chevy Colorados are a nice looking truck.
10k-15k cheaper than a Taco.
Talked to a guy a few weeks ago and it gets better mileage than my Taco.
I love Tacos…. I think its the beans

#103 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 11:18 am

Zero Percent Financing – Theory versus Practice

#52 Linda and Crowd… on 06.27.19 at 11:43 pm
Zero financing is not free. The other option is to pay cash, or 3rd party finance, and take the “Cash Back” offer.

Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price.

Next time, use a heloc.

****************************
As per fartz example at 76 what you say is right in theory but not in practice.

The dealers do not set finance rates. They offer what the manufacturer offers or what third party providers offer and they get a fee from whoever provides financing.

Sometimes the manufacturers offer zero percent and they may or may not pair that with the alternative of a discount on the price. The dealer needs to make about the same profit either way.

Some years ago Volvo was offering a heavily subsidized trip to Sweden to pick up your car and drive around Sweden before it was shipped to Canada if you bought new. This had nothing to do with the dealer and there was no discount if you did not take the trip.

#104 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 11:23 am

#84 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 9:55 am

And well look at that, US ramped its oil production by double soon to be triple so they don’t care what ME crude prices do. But I am sure China does.
___

Very pertinent. the USA was the worlds largest Oil producer last year. The Fracking technology has them returning to the fields which were exploited in the late 19th/early 20th century, to pump them again. The USA was the worlds Saudi Arabia in the first half of the 20th century, they are now again.

The fact is – whatever Iran contributes to Global Oil production could largely be covered by the US and Saudi alone if it were to cease. Iran would be toast without Oil revenues. If there was a shortage Globally, it would only serve to enrich the remaining producers (ie the USA and OPEC etc…).

The USA does not need the Middle East for oil anywhere near like it did only 20 years ago. China surely does, and will. The USA could decimate the entire middle eastern oil industry with a single carrier battle group, and there’s little to nothing anyone could do about it (other than start an all out Earth ending Nuclear war over it).

Iran is a bug ripe to be squashed with little effort or expense. If so, the USA and OPEC will profit in the following months. Oil production will eventually rise to meet demand like it always does (thanks mainly to the USA) bringing prices back down.

Right now, Iran’s mouth is writing cheques its military can’t cash. If they end up with an utterly destroyed Oil and transportation infrastructure – they will have only themselves to blame.

#105 Linda and Crowd... on 06.28.19 at 11:41 am

@#52 re-butt-all
“Dealers just put finance cost into your purchase price…”
++++

Actually they didnt.
I looked at vehicles for almost a year before I decided to buy.
The price didnt bump up and the financing went to 0%.
Time to buy…..

————-

Dealers don’t give anything away for ‘free’. That’s absurd. Anyone taking the Zero financing is not getting, cash back, rebates, or any other discount, and you most certainly are not negotiating the price. Try and see… they will laugh at you.

Trust me, you ARE paying for zero financing.

If you want to win, bring your own cash (cash is king), or buy used (private), but stay away from dealer lots.

#106 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 11:44 am

#73 MF on 06.28.19 at 8:22 am
66 crazyfox on 06.28.19 at

Too long winded to be used for a simple situation.

-Iranian government is religious radical.
-Iranian government hates the west and the Jews (US,Israel)
-Iranian government will try to foment violence through its militias all over Mideast to deflect attention. Most prized and targeted is Israel since it hopes to try to use it as a rallying cry (like the Arabs tried in the 60’s and failed at).
-disrupting oil is an easy way to draw the west (us, Israel) into conflict.
____

I hope the day is coming, when the USA will pull out of the ME, and just let things fall where they may. They don’t need the Oil so bad anymore. The whole area is pretty much nothing but trouble. If they want to bomb each other into oblivion – let ’em. Or, support Israel, and let them take care of business out there – they have the political will that the USA does not.

After the smoke clears and the shell craters are filled – send the US in to occupy what’s left of these dumps until some of the locals get a clue about how to run a society someone would actually want to live in.

Otherwise it’s going to stay a sh!thole forever, and everyone who isn’t working for the government will be planning a one-way trip out of there.

#107 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 11:45 am

Money and Credit and Banking

Stan Brooks at 59 requested an explanation from me:

“Shawn Allen can shed some light on the mystery.
He is convinced that loans are based on savings.”

********************************
Here is how it works.

Frank has a paid for house worth $1 million and decides to sell and to rent (so far Garth is nodding) and (to Garth’s dismay) live off of the GIC income produced from that and from the rest of his large investment portfolio.

Joe goes to a bank and gets a mortgage for $950k with $50k down which is in his chequing account.

Step 1: The bank does an electronic entry showing an added $950k in Joe’s chequing account and a loan owing from Joe of $950k.

At this stage the bank needed no cash reserve to do this. Its balance sheet has gone up by $950 in assets (loan ue) and up by $950 in deposit owed to Joe. The bank’s equity or wealth his unchanged. Joe’s purchasing power is up by $950k. The bank has created $950k in money since bank deposits are money. The bank is subject to a minimum equity capital ratio (not to be confused with cash reserve) and can only do the above if it had some excess owner’s capital over and above the regulatory minimum, which it typically would have. At this stage Joe’s newly created deposit is funding his new loan for the bank. Therefore the bank needed no cash reserve to do this (yet).

Step 2: Joe writes a cheque for $950k and he now owns the house. Frank deposits the cheque in some different bank. Now Joe’s bank needs to have some cash reserve to honor that cheque. In order to avoid depleting its cash reserves, the lending bank will compete to attract a deposit to replace Joe’s deposit that just left. That’s why bank’s pay interest on deposits despite the way they are created.

If Frank keeps the $950 in GICs (which are bank deposits) you can see how that can be used to fund loans by his bank. Actually, no matter what Frank does with his $950k it will tend to stay as a deposit in some bank or other where it can be used to fund loans. Only if it is sent out of the country or taken out as cash and remains out as cash will it not remain as a deposit in some bank or other.

The owner of that deposit as it changes hands will certainly think of that money as his or her savings.

Deposits, despite the way they are created, are owned by depositors (not banks) and are considered by those owners to be their savings and deposits fund loans.

Stan, is this a bit more clear now? If not, you may need to take or re-take a basic accounting course and take a look at some bank balance sheets. Smaller banks and credit unions are good balance sheets to look at since they avoid the complicated businesses that the bigger banks are into.

You are correct that the banking system as a whole creates money and that this contributes to inflation. That’s a system that has worked well for most of us but you are entitled to your opinion that it is harmful.

#108 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 11:51 am

P.S. to Stan

You can see that Joe’s loan becomes Frank’s deposit.

As always, one man’s debt is another man’s savings.

You would agree that the proceeds of the house sale become Frank’s “savings” even if he did not pile that up a dollar at a time and even though it was created via Joe’s loan (which is not Frank’s concern)?

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.19 at 12:08 pm

IHCTD9
don’t you have roof to fix or something?

#110 Remembrancer on 06.28.19 at 12:13 pm

#104 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 11:23 am
#84 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 9:55 am
Iran is a bug ripe to be squashed with little effort or expense. If so, the USA and OPEC will profit in the following months. Oil production will eventually rise to meet demand like it always does (thanks mainly to the USA) bringing prices back down.
—————————————————
You arm chair Dick Chaney’s should stick to what you know, whatever that is, b/c it ain’t strategic planning – maybe you’ve been in a cave since the 1990s but these easy petro wars have a tendency to drag on and have wide ranging knock on effects for decades, trillions of $$ and 100s of thousands if not millions of lives. Oh and spoiler alert, the price of gas at home never ever goes down – winning and plundering isn’t even done right…

For instance, add the disruption of ME oil to China and you’ve just opened up SE Asia, South America or Eastern Russia border as potential new flash points as China ain’t gonna roll over and be starved…

Or best case, the price of everything just goes up… Thanks a lot Dick…

#111 joblo on 06.28.19 at 12:32 pm

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/putin-derides-liberalism-obsolete-g20-summit-190628052108100.html

Just like T2?

#112 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 12:33 pm

The strait of hormuz could be the hottest spot in the world with a big concentration of hostiles in there.

And what does the US do? Sticks a carrier battle group right down the throat of the snake. You think they are scared of anyone? All the US would have to do is naval blockade that straight for a month or two and a dozen countries would fail.

#113 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 12:51 pm

#88

It takes time to understand why bitcoin is unique and why the unlimited printing of other crypto’s doesn’t affect it just like Zimbabwe printing money doesn’t affect the reserve status of USD.

All other crypto’s don’t possess a fraction of the network security that bitcoin does. That’s why you are seeing institutions become comfortable with bitcoin and nothing else. They have done their due diligences and learned that the network securing bitcoin is like no other the world has seen. Hypothetically half the planet could be nuked and bitcoin would keep chugging along. It is the most decentralized and secure digital network that has ever existed. There is no honeypot, the entire history of account balances are distributed on 100k+ nodes being run by average people around the world. No other crypto has that, the mining computational power protecting bitcoin dwarfs all other crypto’s.

I could say, hey I’m going to make a new Facebook tomorrow. Is facebooks value going to drop? Proabably nit because

#114 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 1:01 pm

**Submitted that by accident before I was finished**

…because no one wants to use a platform no one is on.

The security(immutability/final settlement), scarcity and censorship resistance are bitcoins main value props.

The rabbit hole is deep before aha moments start happening but I’m doing my best here.

2) you’re absolutely right it is high risk and the most important part of bitcoin is education. Don’t buy any until you have a hardware wallet like a trezor or ledger ready to take your btc off an exchange immediately after purchasing. “Not your keys, not your coins”

Bitcoin is a push system unlike our credit cards that are pull systems. With bitcoin you have to send and sign with a private key you give to no one else. Whereas with our credit cards we give out our private keys everyday hoping not to be ripped off.

3) the misunderstandings of bitcoins energy use will definitely bring a lot of fear and propaganda as it gains adoption. Long story short is that bitcoin will push us towards green energy as it seeks out to be mined with cheap stranded renewables. Or put to use the excess natural gas that would be burned off into the atmosphere otherwise. Bitcoin will be good for the environment.

Also last I checked we don’t seem to concern ourselves with how much energy Christmas lights use, or how much energy people use while watching reality TV. I think securing an open and transparent financial system that bitcoin allows for just might be a worthy investment of some energy. Let’s not make ourselves the energy police all of a sudden.

Here’s an article anyway on energy consumption

https://blog.picks.co/pow-is-efficient-aa3d442754d3

#115 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 1:02 pm

#94 Ronaldo on 06.28.19 at 10:34 am
#83 IHCTD9

If this kind of stuff is actually happening on Trucks (lending at less than inflation) – it makes buying new pretty tempting!
——————————————————————-
Stick to buying used IH, I bought my 2006 Silverado in 2013 for $19,000 complete with tow package and 10 ply tires when it had only 45000 Km’s. The guy had paid $55,000 for it with all the extras including canopy. Unfortunately he was unable to drive any longer due to illness. I gave him what he was asking. Been driving it now for 6 years and still only 85000 km. Every time I bring it in for an oil change they want to buy it from me. As you can tell, I don’t use it much but it hasn’t cost me much either and still looks like new. Best truck ever and my 4th GM.
____

Yeah, that’s pretty hard to beat lol! So will it ever be on a 4-5 year old vehicle. That truck will last you a long time, those LS motors are the ultimate, just keep the body oiled to save the rockers/cab corners.

I bought an ’03 Sierra SLT 2500HD 4dr with the 8.1 Vortec /Allison 1000 trans for 10K in 2017. New price in 03 was ~43K. Tow machine, 125K on the clock, almost never seen a winter, and oiled every year since new. MINT, so mint I feel bad driving it around. I get a lot of compliments on it too.

I still really like those new trucks though, especially those Denali’s that cost 95K :(.

You will likely get big bucks for that truck when it comes time to sell if you keep it a cherry. My bro had an 04-’05 Sierra 3500HD 8.1/Allision 4×4 4dr long box BEAST, low mileage, in excellent shape – sold a couple years ago for $16,000.00!

#116 paulo on 06.28.19 at 1:07 pm

#104 : 1hdctd9

I think you are greatly under estimating Irans ability to be a determined foe.
make no mistake if the USA gets into it with them it will be a real shooting war with a determined and dangerous foe.

#117 PastThePeak on 06.28.19 at 1:44 pm

Thanks @Andrew for your detailed information. I have some homework to do…:)

#118 Andrew on 06.28.19 at 1:53 pm

Further reading, from someone who has recently done a 180 on bitcoin

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/bitcoin-s-rise-shows-crypto-is-alive-and-well

#119 PastThePeak on 06.28.19 at 1:55 pm

#116 paulo on 06.28.19 at 1:07 pm
#104 : 1hdctd9

I think you are greatly under estimating Irans ability to be a determined foe.
make no mistake if the USA gets into it with them it will be a real shooting war with a determined and dangerous foe.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My comments on this story, and note I am speaking objectively / dispassionately (not saying this is right or wrong, or with a moral view).

1) The USA could win a war with Iran in a heart beat, IF they wanted to. The Iranian airforce and navy would be gone in a couple of days, with that one battle group already there. I don’t think the US is actually considering anything like that.

2) I would hope by now that all the world powers should realize that fighting a ME war is pointless. There is no “making it better”.

3) Agree with a couple of posters, in that if the USA wants to deal some really significant blows to Iran, it is just about taking out their oil infrastructure. They have no other major industry. This would be done in a day. US might also go after their nuclear weapons industry (that would take longer).

Now, of course the US would experience extreme blowback all over the world for this. But outside of the (very) bad publicity, not sure there is any other lasting negative. Russia is already doing everything they can to push against the West, as is China. Really wouldn’t be any change there. But there are all the noted negatives to China (others) w.r.t oil supply.

#120 NJS on 06.28.19 at 1:56 pm

@ #48 Bob Ash
Comma police
Arrest this man
He talks in maths
He buzzes like a fridge
He’s like a detuned radio…

#121 JB on 06.28.19 at 2:03 pm

#61 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 1:39 am

The Demoncrate debates. On all 100 channels, show casing their lunacy.

2020 will be a landslide for Trump. Trans people make up .004% of the population yet you would think it’s like 50% with MSM reporting on it.

Normies in all stripes and colors will vote for trump.
………………………………………………………………….
Lets all hope that dumb ass illiterate Americans like you vote again in 2020. That is if you can read the information on your voter registration card! You sure as hell can spell.

#122 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 2:12 pm

Tony on 06.28.19 at 9:09 am
Re: #61 Smoking Man on 06.28.19 at 1:39 am

What happens if the Russians don’t rig the 2020 election? Seems to me that Trump double-crossed them after the 2016 election.
……

Deplorables put Trump in the White House, not the Russians. MSM lies. Even the poles are rigged.

Trump fills stadiums, the dems cant even fill a town hall.

2020 Trump will win hands down even with social media shutting down conservative influencers. The wooden stake in the Democrats heart was at the fact that every single one of the left lunatics voted to give free health care to illegal aliens.

The race is over. Man did they screw up.

#123 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 2:19 pm

Iran and the U.S.A.

Let’s say the U.S. succeeds in totally humiliating and starving out Iran and its millions of proud people.

How might millions of desperate young Iranian men react? Young men who can’t get employment and therefore probably have no prospects of marriage and, in that country, therefore little prospect of satisfying their carnal appetites. In today’s world would those young men be a threat to Americans at home?

How might the tens of thousands? of young men in the U.S. of Iranian descent react? Some with then starving relatives back in Iran? Are there some (many?) of them that don’t have much going for them in life that might we willing to die to do harm to Americans?

I don’t see a good outcome…

#124 IHCTD9 on 06.28.19 at 2:34 pm

#116 paulo on 06.28.19 at 1:07 pm
#104 : 1hdctd9

I think you are greatly under estimating Irans ability to be a determined foe.
make no mistake if the USA gets into it with them it will be a real shooting war with a determined and dangerous foe.
___

They won’t be coming to kill Iranian soldiers, rather they will be after targets of high value. It’s going to be the nuts and bolts of their civilization in the cross-hairs.

They’ll be in the air, just like every other time they’ve made a move in the Middle East. Strikes from miles away, precision hits with low collateral damage. Roads, bridges, manufacturing, transportation, airstrips, Oil infrastructure, military installations – you name it. All of it will be reduced to rubble.

If I ran the show, and could put my concerns for the innocent Citizens of Iran who have nothing to do with the actions of their nut-bar leadership aside – I would take a collection of fighters out at night, and bomb every single piece of significant infrastructure I come across into junk.

Iran would be totally ****** in few weeks. But the Citizenry would suffer a long horrible decline after something like this.

The last time the US invaded Iraq, they destroyed their entire air force on the ground, and were turning Baghdad into recycled concrete in under a month.

So much for a determined foe…

#125 Matt on 06.28.19 at 2:34 pm

Hi Garth,

Newbie investor with $10k available (high risk tolerance, long term horizon) – where would you park it given rate path (down) in the coming year?

The path may not be down. Nor should that matter. – Garth

#126 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 2:46 pm

#123 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 2:19 pm

Well Iranians in the US will sit and watch the show just like the Japanese Americans did, just like the Italian Americans did. Just like the Vietnamese Americans did.

Better to let the americans handle Iran economically because is Israel has to, it will be nuclear. I would pray for trumps success wouldn’t you?

#127 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 2:53 pm

#110 Remembrancer on 06.28.19 at 12:13 pm
—-

If china is such a tiger they would send that former casino aircraft carrier they have into the straight to protect the tankers. Trump even said they should.

Get used to that carrier group sitting in the straight for the foreseeable future.

US has been conducting carrier operations for 70 yrs. Have china and Russian done any of that? There is only one world power and money wins wars, not pride.

#128 Caledon dave on 06.28.19 at 2:57 pm

Whoa…hold on boys and girls. For those of us wrinklies who can remember that years ago down on the farm, gramps would often reward us with two bits (25 cent coin), for a job well done. We would then go to the bustling town of Lake Lenore and reward ourselves with an ice cream. Nowadays we buy Tim Bits. So….isn’t it all the same?
Bitcoin/Tim Bits/Two Bits

#129 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 3:18 pm

How Will Iranian Americans React?

#126 not 1st on 06.28.19 at 2:46 pm responded:

#123 Shawn Allen on 06.28.19 at 2:19 pm

Well Iranians in the US will sit and watch the show just like the Japanese Americans did, just like the Italian Americans did. Just like the Vietnamese Americans did.

********************************
Good points. People generally look to their own interests and may not fight hard for the interest of people in Iran.

But there are some differences today versus your past examples.

– There are probably more young men today who really feel shut out of the U.S. economy. Desperate people do desperate things.

Far easier today to organize the disenchanted and rile them up.

Possibly far easier today for an individual or small group to inflict major terrorist style damage.

Probably easier today for Iranian youth to harm Americans from a distance.

Humiliating a country is bad business. See Germany after WW I.

#130 Jesse on 06.28.19 at 4:23 pm

Bitcoin is a scam, no one knows who invented it, and whoever did controls most of the coins and liquidity (and thus the price). I’ve never seen so many people pour their money into something so murky. Look up Mt Gox, and then decide if you still want to own Bitcoin.

#131 Shawn Allen on 06.29.19 at 1:54 pm

Who is the Debt owed to?

San above asked:

How can private debt be over 2 trillions when private deposits are less than a trillion? Who is the debt due to?

**********************
Yes, Stan who?

As I explained yesterday: One man’s debt is another man’s savings. … Because yes the debt is owed to someone.