Be prepared

Big week. Trump and Xi meet at the G20 and talk trade. The tariff war between the US and China is the main thing on Mr. Market’s mind these days. It’s also weighing on everything else, from interest rates to corporate profits, jobs and the 2020 presidential slugfest.

Will the two heavies agree to back off? Start negotiations again? If so, investors might power equity markets to new highs by Friday. If not, stocks will sell off and we’ll get a rate cut next month. If your portfolio’s properly balanced, just ignore this stuff.

There’s more. Iran could get a lot uglier. New sanctions hit that country Monday. Boris Johnson’s sleazy girlfriend woes might keep him out of 10 Downing and mess up Brexit. Again. In the land of beavers & moose the Doug Ford government’s in crisis, the T2 Libs are 122 days from the fight of their lives and the Greens might actually outrun the Dippers. Amazing.

Of course, most people just care about themselves, which is what you’d expect. Trade wars, ideologies and monetary policy are less important to the biggest block of voters (Millennials) than the issues they’ll be voting on. Those would be housing, climate change and authenticity. Not sure how young Andrew Scheer is going to score there.

So, in conclusion, we have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on any front. The best possible strategy, then, is to be aggressively conservative and stay out of trouble. No crypto. No gold. No weed stocks. No junior oils. Stick with diversified, low-cost, liquid ETFs, a 60/40 balanced portfolio and roughly equal dollops of maple, MAGA and offshore.

Despite the chatter, a recession is not a foregone conclusion. The two biggest forces in the world right now – the Fed and Trump – don’t want one. Those pantywaist advisors who have been sitting in cash for two years, muttering ‘things are too expensive’, have a lot to explain to their clients. There’s no way the US president – who takes the stock market as a proxy for his magnificence – is purposefully blowing this. This week may make that obvious.

Meanwhile, moisters, some good news. We’re just days away from the first drop in the stress test rate, as five-year mortgage rates come tumbling down below 3% almost everywhere. Given the above, this could be a rare window to load up on cheap money. Seriously consider a locked-in, half-decade long loan instead of rolling the dice and borrowing with a variable rate.

This week more banks are expected to follow the lead of the TD and CIBC and advertise five-year mortgages at under 3%. Last week those two lenders formally lopped off about a third of a point, although they’ve been quietly offering borrowers cheaper money for weeks. (Go ahead and ask the TD for a fiver at 2.8%, for example.)

Of course, there are better deals around. HSBC continues to offer its predatory 2.59% and online mortgage brokers representing outfits you never heard of are even cheaper. But the Big Banks at sub-3% move us closer to the stress test rate dropping from 5.34% to something closer to 5%. That will make it slightly easier for house-lusty kids to complete their descent into debt slavery and helpless middle age.

And on that note, here’s Dan. Yes, another 30something, but one who has learned valuable lessons about money, time, freedom – and what matters. World leaders, momentous events, tectonic political shifts and economic cycles all come and go. Meanwhile you have but one, brief life to live. Never surrender control of it, meander into debt nor be pushed into an action because ‘everybody else’ is doing it. Think Boy Scout. Be prepared.

“I’ve been reading your blog since 2010, and it’s been a guide through many of my life decisions since then.  I moved to Calgary in 2010, finished a masters in 2014, and generally saw increases in my income and net worth the entire time.  For one year, and one year only, I even joined the 1% in regards to income.  Then everything changed…

“Through that time I watched my friends buy first and even second houses, finance fancy cars and trucks with balls (it is Calgary), and spend every cent they made on niceties like vacations, clothes, and sometimes even dogs.

“In October of 2015 I lost my job, and my fiancé in the span of two weeks.  With layoffs everywhere I used the funds I had saved renting and my full TFSA to disappear to SE Asia for 6 months, I came back much healthier mentally.  You’re right when you say time, and how you spend it, is priceless!  Because I didn’t own and had saved/invested, I wasn’t yet worried about money after I returned to Canada.

“Then the unthinkable became reality, the months ticked by, hundreds of job applications went out, and a very few job interviews happened, yet nobody would hire me.  I wasn’t even being picky, from oil and gas, to municipalities in other provinces, to Superstore down the block.  In the meantime I met my wife who needed to be sponsored and couldn’t work until the immigration approved it.  Needless to say the RRSPs floated us until today.  30 months later, odd jobs where I could find them, and sponsoring a wife, I was just hired by Suncor with a solid 6 figure income.

“People may be slamming you on your blog, but I credit you for great and free advice that got me through this tough time.  I had choices others didn’t have because I read and followed.  I still don’t own and a bank wouldn’t touch me, but I take you at face value when you say ‘consider buying but be smart about it’.

“So Garth, thank you!  I don’t know what would have had happened if I didn’t find your blog on a snowy day 9 years ago…”

107 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 06.23.19 at 5:23 pm

Think Boy Scout. Be prepared.

////////////////////

Think Girl Scout. Coooookies…

M45BC

#2 Stan Brooks on 06.23.19 at 5:31 pm

Yep, the aggressive ending/scam counter-fitting continues unabated.

Who in their right mind would give a 5 years loan at 2.59 % yearly interest to seriously distressed customers?

Our banks. Protected by CHMC and loaning money they don’t have as deposits.

Despite the advice above I think it is worth it loading on some alternatives, when mainstream is corrupted and rotted.

IMHO Gold and specially gold stocks will absolutely outperform in the next year or two.

The chance of gold depreciating against the post stamps called loonies is not high going forward.

#3 SW on 06.23.19 at 5:32 pm

Fabulous mandatory suck up!

#4 Alessio on 06.23.19 at 5:35 pm

MIGA! Make Investing Great Again! You have a cult following Mr. Turner! Your base sticks with you through dips and spikes. I still wish I had bought a house back in 2015 instead of balanced portfolio but oh well can’t go back in time. Happy to be healthy – that’s my wealth. Although that house in Vaughan would’ve been nice for $699K. Now it’s going for $1.1MM. But like I said I’m healthy and my balanced portfolio is up $25K!

#5 not 1st on 06.23.19 at 5:36 pm

Garth remember when the blog dogs got so excitied about the April job numbers and the few people who didn’t believe them were bashed. yeah that.

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada lost 16,000 jobs in May as hiring declined in the construction sector, according to a report from ADP released on Thursday.
The number of jobs added in April was revised down to 24,000 from 61,700, ADP said. .

#6 Andrew on 06.23.19 at 5:49 pm

Green paper bad. Yellow rock good. Orange coin better.

#7 Dolce Vita on 06.23.19 at 5:58 pm

That was a good story from Dan about the Art of Being Prepared, bouncing back and a testament to the advice you give Garth.

How that Open Air Alabama Ambulance figures into all that is above my Pay Grade but what the heck, there it is.

Watch Trump drop kick the entire S&P 500 (again) Tweeting just a few words whilst in China.

April GDP this Friday. Flip a coin, up or down?

#8 TheDood on 06.23.19 at 6:05 pm

Dan’s is a perfect example of how a well funded portfolio can see you through the lean years – lots of us will experience these, most are unprepared for them.

Have gone through a number of these in my working life, one I was completely unprepared for due to less than stellar savings/investments (had lots of nice toys tho!), and the second one I was completely prepared for due to years of saving and investing.

Have now spent years drilling financial lessons into my 2 kids, with the primary message being – forget the toys and RE, you need a 6 figure, balanced portfolio paying a consistent 7-8% rate of return. When that is in place, THEN (and only THEN) do you think about toys and saving for RE.

#9 Salmon Rear End Arm on 06.23.19 at 6:05 pm

The Chief thinks you hit the rum

#10 The Wet One on 06.23.19 at 6:13 pm

What is predatory in your view?

I’m curious.

#11 Crowded Martian Methane producers on 06.23.19 at 6:15 pm

We are not alone!!!! slap a carbon tax on them for excess methane production…………….

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/who-dealt-it-nasa-rover-on-mars-detects-puff-of-gas-that-hints-at-possibility-of-life#comments-area

#12 Reality is stark on 06.23.19 at 6:17 pm

Carrie Symonds, drama student.
Well Boris Johnson does have something to teach you about wealth.
Stay on your purpose.
Don’t get involved with those obsessed about consumption. Quickest way to the grave.
They aren’t stupid. Let them pay for everything they need.

#13 Looney Baloney on 06.23.19 at 6:32 pm

Private lenders offering mortgages at sub inflation rates. These lenders don’t have a license to manufacture currency like the big boys do. Which means they are either betting those stretching out their hands are flippers and won’t hold the loans for long, or the market will crash, borrowers default, and they can lay claim to the assets. Hmm I wonder which will be the case.

#14 Shawn Allen on 06.23.19 at 6:44 pm

How Do Banks Do It?

This week more banks are expected to follow the lead of the TD and CIBC and advertise five-year mortgages at under 3%… HSBC continues to offer its predatory 2.59% and online mortgage brokers representing outfits you never heard of are even cheaper.

***********************************
Conspiracy theories contend that banks lend money that costs them nothing and charge interest and are therefore evil. And there are grains of truth to it though overall such theories are as bonkers as they sound.

The reality is that banks pay interest on most of their deposits though they get some these days at or very near zero percent (many chequing accounts). And they also have costs for administering all those deposit accounts and the multiple transactions most of us make every month – costs over and above fees usually.

The essence of bank lending is to lend money at some spread over and above the average cost paid on deposits. Let’s say the spread is 2%. For example, lend at 3%, while paying average 1% on deposits.

Making 2% on the banks own share holder equity money would be terrible. But making 2% on depositor’s money works out well.

The banks leverage the 2% up to closer to 20% or more before admin costs and taxes and say 12% or more return on equity.

Banks try to leverage as much as they can without becoming too risky. Bank regulators also limit their leverage by imposing minimum equity capital ratios (Not to be confused with minimum cash reserve ratios which do not apply in Canada although banks themselves impose their own rules about keeping a bit of cash on hand).

A pure lending bank is a finely tuned and highly leveraged operation. It makes a good ROE by leveraging its equity ten times or more while being extremely careful about loan losses. CMHC mortgage insurance helps a lot there as CMHC mortgages can be leveraged to the hilt (they use only a tiny amount of bank share holder equity) given the government guarantees on loan losses.

Leverage and low deposit costs and low loan losses via CMHC are the three main reasons that banks can lend mortgage money at 3% or less even to your idiot nephew to whom you would never lend a dime and expect to get it back.

P.S. The Bank of England paper often referenced here says deposits are created by the banking system in making loans. But it certainly does not say that no interest is paid on deposits. And it says there are limits on the process. Leverage is not unlimited.

#15 Shawn Allen on 06.23.19 at 6:54 pm

Predatory?

HSBC continues to offer its predatory 2.59%

**************************
If I recall right, Garth explained that this is predatory to other lenders, not to the borrowers. Few would sympathize with the lenders who lose business to HSBC.

Lending money is providing the purest of all commodities. In theory, banks should have to compete viciously on price (low rates) until none are making excess profits on lending. In practice, that has not usually been the case.

#16 NoName on 06.23.19 at 6:59 pm

Arizona, Alabama almost a same thing except geographic location…

Interesting video from frew weeks back, air ambulance rescue. I feel for old lady.

https://mobile.twitter.com/FOX10Phoenix/status/1135985034857345024?s=20

#17 Same Deal on 06.23.19 at 7:01 pm

Except I bought a house in Vancouver. Then sold it. Been reading this blog since 2010, patchy work since the financial crisis and have altered the life style to keep head above water – basically no vacations, just spending of food and basic needs. Getting out of the lower mainland compounded issues in finding steady 6-figure income work. Went from 110k net per year to 45k presently. Now rent an apartment in central BC for 1,800 per month. Have had several career opportunities that would require re-locating back to the metro in BC with gold plated pension, but that is not what I trained myself for. I basically came to a fork in the road and drove straight. 10 year post secondary paid for up-front and 20 years management experience. Accomplished it all, but can’t afford Vancouver. I feel I can re-invent myself anywhere I go, so, I work from home in rural BC innovating ideas and putting my computer to work, while helping my the aging parents who are in their 80s/90s. I have six figures invested, but have had a hard time saving due to income levels and rents eating most of it. Therefore, can’t invest as much as I would like and behind in what I will need for retirement, but will continue innovating until a breakthrough allows me to catch up.

#18 Looney Baloney on 06.23.19 at 7:07 pm

Also it sounds like Dan blew his rrsp wad to do some soul searching and came back without learning much. Your ‘fiance’ quit on you two weeks after you lost your job. And you think your new squeeze is going to stick around after she gets her carrot (PR)? HELLO? At least try and not take out a loan to buy a rock for this one. Oh and remember to remove your shoes before walking into her parents home when you meet them for the first time..

#19 Flop... on 06.23.19 at 7:10 pm

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how a news crew from Global came around to my place of work.

With the line of questioning I overheard, they seem determined to get a contractor on film stating that things are slowing down.

Didn’t think much more of it after a day or so, as it wasn’t on the news.

Then last Sunday, I think, I saw an add saying coming up on Global this week we take a closer look at the housing market, or words to that effect.

I thought, Oh boy! Here we go, Global might have some good sauce for once.

I tuned in all week, although at times I had to remove pins from my eyeballs.

Early in the week I saw a lot of pipeline talk, which you would expect, and then later in the week they reverted back to cuddly animals.

I don’t know if they decided to delay it a week or so, or were lent on by the real estate sector to give one of their ” experts ” some more face time.

Just might have plain missed it whilst sneezing,but no one on here commented, so maybe they chickened out?

I was mainly interested in if Global was going to spin it in a positive or negative way.

Can’t just give people the facts.

That would be dangerous…

M45BC

#20 Flop... on 06.23.19 at 7:51 pm

#17 Looney Baloney on 06.23.19 at 7:07 pm
“Also it sounds like Dan blew his rrsp wad to do some soul searching and came back without learning much. Your ‘fiance’ quit on you two weeks after you lost your job. And you think your new squeeze is going to stick around after she gets her carrot (PR)? HELLO? At least try and not take out a loan to buy a rock for this one. Oh and remember to remove your shoes before walking into her parents home when you meet them for the first time..”

////////////////////////

Go easy on the guy, he’s not a loser in my books, a loser would have just done nothing and moaned about his lot in life.

I’ve been down a similar path, it takes some faith in yourself that life will turn out better if you just turn the page and start again.

Partly due to starting an apprenticeship at 15, partly due to living in a smaller city that had affordable housing, I had a paid off house by the time I was in my early 20’s

Life then chucked me a curveball, I found out my long-term girlfriend was doing some overtime with her boss.

I felt trapped in my house,I couldn’t go out without seeing her or one of our joint friends.

I wallowed around in a big tub of self pity and then drew up a plan and executed it.

Sold my house and all its furniture and applied for a 2 year working holiday visa in the U.K

20 years later, never been back.

I still have a small scar with a story to tell but overall it will be an insignificant detail in my life.

Been on the other-side of the immigration struggle too.

Brown girl sponsored the white guy, it’s not always the same as the Disney Channel.

If you don’t like the global economy, that’s cool, just don’t dump on people who are together for all the right reasons.

Yes, I did take my shoes off the first time I meet her parents.

Been married 17 years, later this year, if she doesn’t strangle me in the meantime.

It’s easy to make excuses when you are traveling or working abroad not to engage in relationships, because you think being together is too hard or you will be judged.

Stuff ’em, I say.

I married my wife after meeting her only six months earlier.

We wanted to be together, this is what was necessary.

Once again, draw up a plan and execute it.

Don’t live someone else’s life.

Don’t be a victim…

M45BC

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.19 at 7:58 pm

@#18 Flop
“Just might have plain missed it whilst sneezing,but no one on here commented, so maybe they chickened out?
I was mainly interested in if Global was going to spin it in a positive or negative way.
Can’t just give people the facts…..”

******

Yeah.
I change the channel when Gobbel News came on .
The Real Estate Cartel pretty much had them in their back pocket with millions of $$$$ in annual advertising.

Check out this site.

http://www.openhousing.ca

Some interesting LowerBrainLand stats.

#22 Bdwy sktn on 06.23.19 at 8:19 pm

Never been a gold nut.
Never really held much of any.
Costco, now 266usd, is (was?) the best but for the first time ever I am seeing a big move starting in the barbarous relic.
Big miners should double. Smaller ones more so.
Btc as awful as it is , too.

Equities otherwise to fade.
10yr stays within a hair of 2% to 2020.

Buy gold asap, but keep the sell button ready.

Good luck guys and gals.

#23 Barb on 06.23.19 at 8:24 pm

Dan’s resilience impresses me.
Attaboy
He learned from the best: Mr. T.

#24 Love this Blog on 06.23.19 at 8:41 pm

Great story and a great blog

Thanks for all you do Garth

#25 JSS on 06.23.19 at 8:47 pm

This guy is very lucky to be a job with Suncor.
Heard the job market in Calgary is very poor, particularly for engineers, project managers, technical specialists.

Isn’t the ucp government supposed to fix this?!?!

#26 S.Bby on 06.23.19 at 8:48 pm

ask the TD for a fiver at 2.8%
HSBC continues to offer its predatory 2.59%

that’s pretty irresponsible …

#27 MF on 06.23.19 at 8:50 pm

5 not 1st on 06.23.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you (or anyone) have the source of the revised May 2019 labour report?

Did a quick search and couldn’t find it. Just curious.

MF

#28 Trumpocalypse2019 on 06.23.19 at 9:33 pm

Iran could get a lot uglier. New sanctions hit that country Monday.

Absolutely. The Iranians don’t want to seem weak.

This will escalate, and soon involve Israel and Russia. And nukes.

Diversify liquid assets asap. Sell property now.

PREPARE

#29 Chaddywack on 06.23.19 at 10:01 pm

What’s wrong with weed stocks? Everyone is smoking it these days!

#30 Not 1st on 06.23.19 at 10:07 pm

Funny how they buried this little stat. Didn’t get to the MSM.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1TL1HW-OCATP

#31 The Great Gordonski on 06.23.19 at 10:09 pm

It’s been a vertigo market for shorts and passive advisors. I figure, all in , I’m up a little 30% ytd on my brand of “balanced investments”, in all five pillars, which are ‘value +’ plays that pay dividends.

When I say “value +, I mean solid value plays ( like utilities, banks, consumer durables)that offer growth through common issue buy backs, mergers and acquisition and osmotic expansion with strong balance sheets. Surprising most managers have been the story dinosaurs like CP etc. With bonds paying zero this has been a great place to play.

With rates on hold this strategy will only get better….for me, as the same time it gets ever more frightening for the greenhorn advisor who can’t get in with his balls clenched tighter than Trudeaus ultra-feminine pose with Trumps toxic masculinity at his side. Was he afraid or excited? I read a bit of both in his body language.

Stranger still is why the novice investor listens to the “it’s too expensive ” camp. Compared to what? After two months of scratching the dirt I just found a gem in the industrial space paying 6.5% Q on a p/e of 9 ! That’s the stuff of the Buffet legend. Hypo is that if and when ‘things’ normalize with China etc etc., we’ll get a sweet pop in the space. I’m already seeing a stealth move in hard commodities and ancillary plays. OK, stay awake or order the coffin now. I’m already deep in the black, as it should be.

#32 Torren Holdstaff on 06.23.19 at 10:14 pm

I guess as long as central banks (expcet Canada for some reason) are holding gold, we could as well?

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.19 at 10:45 pm

Re: Picture
Finally, someone figured out how to use the trunk of his
F-150 to make money.
Uber-Hearse.

#34 Tom from Mississauga on 06.23.19 at 10:47 pm

No junior oils? Just bought Gen III Oil Corp, it’s a slam dunk! I’ll be rich! Ticker giii on the Venture.

#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.23.19 at 10:51 pm

Donald and Boris.
Two Buffons running the first and second Anglo Saxion countries.
Won’t end well, as Garth used to say.

#36 conan on 06.23.19 at 11:02 pm

What happens if China tells the USA to pound sand? It will no longer buy food from American farmers, and will also help establish an alternative currency, so that oil transactions can take place, without having to use the dollar.

Trump the walking disaster.

#37 acdel on 06.23.19 at 11:04 pm

A bit off topic but here is a story of Calgary (yes that city and the province that has contributed so much towards Canada) that narrowly wins 2023 Petroleum Congress. Although it is a usual CBC bias federally funded (yep, all Canadians) very left wing news outlet (where is the rage?).

This should be a celebration to using/showcase what we have and sell to afford better technologies in the future. But, here is the link and read the absurd comments; meanwhile in China, India and the rest of the middle East, Shhh, CBC may lambast you for your intelligents. The sooner our tax paying dollars are out of that very one sided so called news orp the better; let them survive on there true merits. Anyways, here is the link.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cgy-2023-world-petroleum-congress-1.5186826

#38 acdel on 06.23.19 at 11:10 pm

Ah, the life of the left wing hypocrites; carbon usage, what are you talking about; ha,, it is hysterical! :)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7172965/Barack-Obama-George-Clooney-look-dressed-business-sail-boat-Italy.html

#39 acdel on 06.23.19 at 11:17 pm

Last post; this one is for the Smoking Man; just could not let this one pass him by, :)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7173125/Sperm-bank-set-space-study-suggests.html

#40 Flop... on 06.23.19 at 11:25 pm

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.19 at 7:58 pm
@#18 Flop
“Just might have plain missed it whilst sneezing,but no one on here commented, so maybe they chickened out?
I was mainly interested in if Global was going to spin it in a positive or negative way.
Can’t just give people the facts…..”

******

Yeah.
I change the channel when Gobbel News came on .
The Real Estate Cartel pretty much had them in their back pocket with millions of $$$$ in annual advertising.

Check out this site.

http://www.openhousing.ca

Some interesting LowerBrainLand stats.

/////////////////

Hey Crowdie, boy you’ve been leaving some interesting comments on that one too!

I’ll tell you one thing, I voted for Rohana Rezel during the last civic elections because I found him to be more transparent and didn’t appear to be bought and paid for with dollar signs in his eyes.

First time I voted in a municipal election.

The provincial election before that, ditto.

I have never voted in a federal election, I might have to come off the substitutes bench for that one too.

I have given credit to Garth Turner before for making me a more engaged citizen, via this blog, voting is just one example of this.

I don’t want to give the guy a bigger head just in case he starts to shave.

Seen the price of a decent razor lately?

Gillette, the best a one percenter can get…

M45BC

#41 acdel on 06.23.19 at 11:26 pm

Ok, I lied, this is the last but greatest!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7172855/Tiger-Mums-says-ESTHER-WOJCICKI-daughters-worth-900m.html

#42 DON on 06.23.19 at 11:39 pm

#22 Barb on 06.23.19 at 8:24 pm

Dan’s resilience impresses me.
Attaboy
He learned from the best: Mr. T.
******
Nicely done Dano!

#43 Spectacle on 06.23.19 at 11:49 pm

#7 Dolce Vita on 06.23.19 at 5:58 pm
That was a good story from Dan about the Art of Being Prepared, bouncing back and a testament to the advice you give Garth.

How that Open Air Alabama Ambulance figures into all that is above my Pay Grade but what the heck, there it is.

———————– :: ————— :: ————
Dolce,

I think it has to do with Be Prepared.

1) A good friend is for good advice, to prepare to make life decisions.

2) But having a true friend, is to always be prepared.
Just in case you need to move a body!

#44 DON on 06.23.19 at 11:51 pm

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.19 at 7:58 pm

@#18 Flop
“Just might have plain missed it whilst sneezing,but no one on here commented, so maybe they chickened out?
I was mainly interested in if Global was going to spin it in a positive or negative way.
Can’t just give people the facts…..”

******

Yeah.
I change the channel when Gobbel News came on .
The Real Estate Cartel pretty much had them in their back pocket with millions of $$$$ in annual advertising.

Check out this site.

http://www.openhousing.ca

Some interesting LowerBrainLand stats.
***************

Listening to Global is like hearing nails scraping a chalkboard. Actors reading the news.

#45 Dan in Calgary on 06.24.19 at 12:07 am

Looney Balooney, she’s had her PR for a while now, our third anniversary comes up shortly. Never been happier. Wrote this to Garth almost a year ago, things are going well and I’m almost financially recovered after some hard saving and Garth’s advice!

Ps. Anywhere but the US it’s pretty much customary to remove your shoes when entering someone’s home…

#46 Cal on 06.24.19 at 12:11 am

To #19 flop
Read your post, and felt it was insightful. I agree with you not to be hard on Dan. If he feels he is doing the right thing all the power to him.

Thanks for the blog Garth, it is appreciated

#47 Stan Brooks on 06.24.19 at 12:15 am

#13 Shawn Allen on 06.23.19 at 6:44 pm

You are both extremely naive and persistent in your delusions at the same time.

Lenders make 50 billions yearly in practically no risk environment, backed by loan ‘insurance’. Central bank conveniently converts their credit into currency by purchasing assets (i.e. your mortgage) that do not have deposits behind it, deposits are needed only if money are withdrawn. Our lenders have no reserve deposit requirements as they have BoC’s back.

We are being ripped off by extremely aggressive predatory lending that increases credit and inflation with it, diluting deposits. In an automation/salary capped environment this is lethal.

It would have not been possible without mortgage ‘insurance’ and BoC. So it is all by design, backed by corrupted politicians and clueless bureaucrats.

And naive sheeple.

#48 Midnights on 06.24.19 at 12:26 am

Meanwhile on the other side of gold.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/socrates-gold/

#49 Midnights on 06.24.19 at 1:15 am

Paul T. Jones…
https://youtu.be/iNjOptP7jJ4

#50 Dolce Vita on 06.24.19 at 1:52 am

#5 not 1st

Payroll reports do not give a complete picture of employment in Canada:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/72-203-g/2013001/part-partie8-eng.htm

For example, StatCan’s Survey of Payroll, Employment and Hours (SEPH) that ADP compares to DO NOT survey the self-employed, unemployed nor employment in Agriculture*. Nonfarm per ADP.

Why the Labour Force Survey (LFS) job numbers are used and reported about rather than SEPH.

——————————————-

*Agriculture, fishing and trapping, private household services, religious organisations and the military personnel of the deference services.

#51 dirtydebtor on 06.24.19 at 2:08 am

Dan,

Hopefully the new wife, wherever she is from, is on even economic footing as you.

careful of beautiful ladies from economically depressed corners of the world. true love does happen between rich westerners and poor countryside girls once in a blue moon.

but chances are she loves you not for your blue eyes, but for the potential of adding a few more water buffalo to the family herd.

careful mate, or you are about to learn a real financial lesson. a marriage can do much more damage to the pocketbook than [email protected]

price it out, as with most things, much cheaper to rent than to buy.

#52 NoName on 06.24.19 at 4:26 am

NYC vs Toronto, i am hoping its to scale otherwise it would make no sence.

https://www.instagram.com/p/By_OBnInof1/?igshid=134vmrlo2bd4r

#53 Oh Canada, I weep. on 06.24.19 at 4:51 am

BC Pipelines OK with Horgan and Climate fury McKenna.

https://www.facebook.com/183275355056175/posts/2461696533880701/

Shame on these socialist hypocrites.

#54 Howard on 06.24.19 at 5:56 am

#141 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.22.19 at 11:56 am
#138 Howard on 06.22.19 at 10:32 am

I’m not into making anything or anyone suffer (except for myself by even responding to you I suppose) 150,000kg sounds like a big number, but, again, no one is going to Loblaws and bbq’ing some shark fin tonight. The shark fin industry is $1.2B/yr, and Canada did something like $3m of it (ie. nothing) … This is called a virtue signal. It will have no affect except that we get a participation ribbon. It’s to make dummies like you, who read one article and are now an expert, feel better about yourself.

——————————————

“Virtue signalling” is a silly buzzword used by soft-brained troglodytes intellectually unable to come up with a coherent argument. Not indifferent from leftists yelling “check your privilege”.

Shark fin not sold at Loblaws – right, because YOU don’t see it at your local suburban grocery store, it couldn’t possibly be a problem. Absolute consumption is low owing to the fact that Canada has approximately 2% the population of the combined shark fin-consuming countries in East Asia. I may be a dummy but at least I know what per capita means.

The fact that Canada’s absolute participation in this brutal trade is small owing to its small population is not an argument against banning it.

#55 Howard on 06.24.19 at 6:23 am

#21 Bdwy sktn on 06.23.19 at 8:19 pm
Never been a gold nut.
Never really held much of any.
Costco, now 266usd, is (was?) the best but for the first time ever I am seeing a big move starting in the barbarous relic.
Big miners should double. Smaller ones more so.
Btc as awful as it is , too.

Equities otherwise to fade.
10yr stays within a hair of 2% to 2020.

Buy gold asap, but keep the sell button ready.

Good luck guys and gals.

——————————————-

Anyone have recos for precious metal miners?

I have some HGU, the 2x gold miner bull ETF. Obviously riskier than the non-leveraged ETFs, but it’s a small position.

The only individual miners I hold are Newmont (recently acquired Goldcorp) and SSRM (mostly silver miner).

#56 Howard on 06.24.19 at 6:27 am

#35 conan on 06.23.19 at 11:02 pm
What happens if China tells the USA to pound sand? It will no longer buy food from American farmers, and will also help establish an alternative currency, so that oil transactions can take place, without having to use the dollar.

Trump the walking disaster.

—————————————–

And what happens if the USA stops sourcing trinkets from China?

China needs food more than the USA needs cheap trinkets.

#57 Howard on 06.24.19 at 6:34 am

#53 Howard on 06.24.19 at 5:56 am

“Virtue signalling” is a silly buzzword used by soft-brained troglodytes intellectually unable to come up with a coherent argument. Not indifferent from leftists yelling “check your privilege”.

————————————-

Whoops, I meant “dissimilar”, not “indifferent”.

Distracted….

#58 Howard on 06.24.19 at 7:25 am

First poll showing the Greens outpolling the NDP nationally.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2019/06/i-predicted-the-amazing-elizabeth-mays-greens-would-go-ahead-of-jagmeet-singhs-ndp-in-july-or-august/

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.19 at 7:35 am

@#34 Ponzie Pilot
“Donald and Boris.
Two Buffons running the first and second Anglo Saxion countries.”

*****
And they’re both blond…….

#60 dharma bum on 06.24.19 at 7:41 am

That will make it slightly easier for house-lusty kids to complete their descent into debt slavery and helpless middle age. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Ever so slightly.

They still won’t know what hit ’em!

Get ready for a Surprise!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFmozCnOLew

#61 Remembrancer on 06.24.19 at 7:44 am

#24 JSS on 06.23.19 at 8:47 pm
This guy is very lucky to be a job with Suncor.
Heard the job market in Calgary is very poor, particularly for engineers, project managers, technical specialists.
Isn’t the ucp government supposed to fix this?!?!
————————-
Kenney and his crew got the jobs they wanted in Edmonton, as for Calgary and the rest of Alberta, that remains fuzzy…

#62 Remembrancer on 06.24.19 at 7:46 am

#29 Not 1st on 06.23.19 at 10:07 pm
Funny how they buried this little stat. Didn’t get to the MSM.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1TL1HW-OCATP
—————————————
Doesn’t get much more main stream for news than Reuters there sunshine…

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.19 at 8:17 am

Only a matter of time before the rebates were cut.

Oh well.
The planet be damned.
I guess it’s back to the fuel belching F-150…..

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/06/23/rebate-ev/

#64 Tater on 06.24.19 at 8:38 am

#54 Howard on 06.24.19 at 6:23 am
#21 Bdwy sktn on 06.23.19 at 8:19 pm
Never been a gold nut.
Never really held much of any.
Costco, now 266usd, is (was?) the best but for the first time ever I am seeing a big move starting in the barbarous relic.
Big miners should double. Smaller ones more so.
Btc as awful as it is , too.

Equities otherwise to fade.
10yr stays within a hair of 2% to 2020.

Buy gold asap, but keep the sell button ready.

Good luck guys and gals.

——————————————-

Anyone have recos for precious metal miners?

I have some HGU, the 2x gold miner bull ETF. Obviously riskier than the non-leveraged ETFs, but it’s a small position.

The only individual miners I hold are Newmont (recently acquired Goldcorp) and SSRM (mostly silver miner).
————————————————————–

Oh boy. Holding a 2x daily levered ETF shows you don’t understand how it works.

#65 Smoking Man on 06.24.19 at 9:10 am

Why hasn’t Trump fired war hog Bolton yet. He better do it fast or lose 1/2 his base.

#66 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 9:12 am

#57 Howard on 06.24.19 at 7:25 am

First poll showing the Greens outpolling the NDP nationally.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2019/06/i-predicted-the-amazing-elizabeth-mays-greens-would-go-ahead-of-jagmeet-singhs-ndp-in-july-or-august/
____

Jagmeet has been a disaster for the NDP – and the stuff coming out of his mouth recently makes me wish he would keep wrapping that Turban down another 6-7″ or so.

I bet a Mulcair NDP would be doing pretty well right now. He would appeal to the Center (Trudeau turned the Libs into a collection of hard left SJW/Activist extremists), older lefties, and any lefty who wants to puke when they see/hear Trudeau. Plus, the ABC crowd could still vote for a TM NDP. These are probably the folks going Green right now out of desperation.

#67 Howard on 06.24.19 at 9:16 am

#63 Tater on 06.24.19 at 8:38 am

Oh boy. Holding a 2x daily levered ETF shows you don’t understand how it works.

————————————-

Yes I’m aware it is more of a day-trading vehicle with regular decay. That said, in an impulse move for extremely undervalued gold miners, holding it over a several week period will be quite profitable. By “hold” I didn’t mean years or even months.

FYI I’ve bought 2x levered ETFs before, I know the risks. Even tried the 3x US ETFs once. Wouldn’t likely tempt fate on those again though.

#68 -=jwk=- on 06.24.19 at 9:17 am

@#36 acdel

Although it is a usual CBC bias federally funded (yep, all Canadians) very left wing news outlet (where is the rage?).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cgy-2023-world-petroleum-congress-1.5186826

I am not following. Could you quote the ‘very left wing’ article for us simpleton liberals? Because is seems to be a very factual article, with good praide for Calgary for winning. Perhaps you could re-write it as a ‘loony right wing’ writer so we can see the difference?

#69 Howard on 06.24.19 at 9:32 am

#65 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 9:12 am
#57 Howard on 06.24.19 at 7:25 am

First poll showing the Greens outpolling the NDP nationally.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2019/06/i-predicted-the-amazing-elizabeth-mays-greens-would-go-ahead-of-jagmeet-singhs-ndp-in-july-or-august/
____

Jagmeet has been a disaster for the NDP – and the stuff coming out of his mouth recently makes me wish he would keep wrapping that Turban down another 6-7″ or so.

I bet a Mulcair NDP would be doing pretty well right now. He would appeal to the Center (Trudeau turned the Libs into a collection of hard left SJW/Activist extremists), older lefties, and any lefty who wants to puke when they see/hear Trudeau. Plus, the ABC crowd could still vote for a TM NDP. These are probably the folks going Green right now out of desperation.

—————————————

I liked Mulcair a lot. I didn’t agree with him on many issues, but I respect him and his intellect. I would be comfortable with him as PM. He’s a pragmatist, more than people gave him credit for. A left-wing version Harper if you will, complete with the “angry” demeanour.

If he were still NDP leader, safe to say Twinkle Toes would be toast on account of Mulcair’s strength in Quebec. Actually can you picture a debate between Mulcair, Scheer, and Twinkle? Like two elementary school kids arguing with a learned university professor.

#70 Tater on 06.24.19 at 9:45 am

#66 Howard on 06.24.19 at 9:16 am
#63 Tater on 06.24.19 at 8:38 am

Oh boy. Holding a 2x daily levered ETF shows you don’t understand how it works.

————————————-

Yes I’m aware it is more of a day-trading vehicle with regular decay. That said, in an impulse move for extremely undervalued gold miners, holding it over a several week period will be quite profitable. By “hold” I didn’t mean years or even months.

FYI I’ve bought 2x levered ETFs before, I know the risks. Even tried the 3x US ETFs once. Wouldn’t likely tempt fate on those again though.
—————————————————————-

Holding for several weeks that are volatile, even if it moves higher, might not be profitable at all.

You’d be better off just buying an un-levered ETF on margin.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.19 at 9:46 am

@#67 -=jwk=-

From acdel
“The sooner our tax paying dollars are out of that very one sided so called news org the better; let them survive on there true merits…..”

++++++

Ah yessss.
The CBC or as Frank Magazine referred to it a decade or so ago… The Corpse.

The only way it could hope to survive in a blatantly pro busines biased Global News world was to swing hard Left.

Thus we have the endless SJW pablum repeated breathlessly on CBC.
Save the Whales. Check
Stop the Pipeline. Check
Gay Rights. Check
Indigenous rights. Check
Big Business Bad. Check
On and on and on ad nauseum every fricken news hour.

I knew all hope was lost when the politically correct spineless bureaucrats at the head of CBC replaced Peter Mansbridge with THREE anchors.
Two men of “color” and a woman because…..God Forbid we appoint another male WASP.
Its just not done in these politically correct times.

Can ONE.
Just ONE News agency report the news without an agenda?
Global bleats pro business.
CBC bleats anti everything business.

Just the Facts.

Not the biased drivel spewed forth night after night after night.

Perhaps if CBC actually had to stand on their own two feet and stop sucking billions of dollars from the taxpayer teat every year…… their social awareness biased agenda might not be so hard to take.

#72 not 1st on 06.24.19 at 9:47 am

#61 Remembrancer on 06.24.19 at 7:46 am

Go back and look at the MSM coverage when that jobs report was released 2 months ago. It was on every lefty news outlet for days. Trudeau acolytes were crowing about it constantly. Except it wasn’t real. Statscan will revise it all some hot Friday afternoon in July.

#73 45north on 06.24.19 at 10:01 am

Glowacki: Don’t dump Phoenix. Fix it. Canada’s public service doesn’t need a new pay-system crisis

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/glowacki-dont-dump-phoenix-fix-it-canadas-public-service-doesnt-need-a-new-pay-system-crisis

I worked for the Federal Public Service for 40 years, without the benefit of a centralized pay system. It was just coming in as I was leaving.

Phoenix was supposed to save money – one centralized pay system to replace 40 separate ones. What could go wrong? Well lots apparently.

Glowacki was a high ranking officer in Shared Services – another centralized service designed to replace 40 separate Information Technology systems and like Phoenix, it supposed to save money but didn’t. Not even close.

Centralization is a strong tendency within the civil service. It is all about transferring power and control to the ones doing the centralizing – saving money is the justification. Phoenix and Shared Services are failed efforts at centralization. They are not so much a failure of the political parties like the Conservatives and Liberals, but they are mostly a failure of the senior civil service.

#74 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 10:18 am

#50 dirtydebtor on 06.24.19 at 2:08 am
Dan,

Hopefully the new wife, wherever she is from, is on even economic footing as you.

careful of beautiful ladies from economically depressed corners of the world. true love does happen between rich westerners and poor countryside girls once in a blue moon.

but chances are she loves you not for your blue eyes, but for the potential of adding a few more water buffalo to the family herd.

careful mate, or you are about to learn a real financial lesson. a marriage can do much more damage to the pocketbook than [email protected]

price it out, as with most things, much cheaper to rent than to buy.
___

Tough call on the imported bride thing. I tend to think if she’s in it for the long haul, Dan is good – even if it never was “true love”. I’ve done quite a bit of reading and thinking about M/F relationships, and IMHO, the most important thing is commitment – not love, romance etc. She might want a better life for herself, he wants female companionship and maybe some kids. Those reasons sound good enough to me, provided both parties stick to their guns over the long haul.

Even in normal Western “marry for love” couples – the chemicals and butterflies eventually die down, time changes people, and the two have to accommodate each other as they travel the long road of life. Behind success lies old school virtues like loyalty, commitment, respect, and trust – not love.

If I were Dan, and the whole love thing is not really the truth – I’d cut right through the crap and hammer out a deal with her:

“Look, we’re not really in love, but I want kids and a regular sex life – in exchange I offer Canadian Citizenship and a Western Lifestyle, but you have to work too – deal?”

“Yes – deal”

“Ok, sign here in blood (ironclad prenup).”

Something like the above arrangement surely has at least the same 50/50 chance of success as your typical Western marriage does.

#75 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 10:27 am

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.19 at 9:46 am

Can ONE.
Just ONE News agency report the news without an agenda?
___

Al Jazeera is not bad – not much Canada stuff though.

If Trudeau said he’d de-fund the CBC if reelected, and he could somehow make me believe he’s not full of sh!t, I’d vote just for that. Once in a life time opportunity – I would sleep better knowing my tax dollars are not going into a left wing propaganda machine.

#76 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

#46 Stan Brooks on 06.24.19 at 12:15 am
#13 Shawn Allen on 06.23.19 at 6:44 pm

We are being ripped off by extremely aggressive predatory lending that increases credit and inflation with it, diluting deposits. In an automation/salary capped environment this is lethal.

It would have not been possible without mortgage ‘insurance’ and BoC. So it is all by design, backed by corrupted politicians and clueless bureaucrats.

And naive sheeple.

————————————————————–

I wouldn’t consider being able to borrow money for almost free to be a rip off. It’s likely I pay off my mortage, never paying more then 3.75%.

Or being able to borrow money at 3.2%, roll it into an RRSP, get 40% back, roll that back into a TFSA and make 8% YOY. Ya, what a rotten deal.

Listen money is cheap, you can sit back and moan about your saving’s account producing nothing, or you can get in the game and put free money to work. Has this environment created some assets to rise dramatically? Yes, of course. A boat that I covet, that was 50K 8 years ago sells for close to 90K today. The increase mostly being driven by easy credit, home equity. Should have bought one then, missed it, oh well.

#77 Steven Rowlandson on 06.24.19 at 10:59 am

“In the land of beavers & moose the Doug Ford government’s in crisis, the T2 Libs are 122 days from the fight of their lives and the Greens might actually outrun the Dippers. Amazing.”

What a farce! Given the laws regulating what kind of political party you can vote for on election day you have no choice except to not vote or vote for those who undermine the finances of the nation.

http://www.debtclock.ca/
http://www.debtclock.ca/provincial-debtclocks/ontario/

#78 Captain Uppa on 06.24.19 at 11:15 am

Hey Garth, seems your uber rich elite friends don’t share your point of view on taxes. It seems they are begging for more taxes:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/billionaires-to-trump-and-other-2020-candidates-please-tax-us.html

#79 Ronaldo on 06.24.19 at 11:21 am

#31 Torren Holdstaff on 06.23.19 at 10:14 pm
I guess as long as central banks (expcet Canada for some reason) are holding gold, we could as well?
——————————————————————
With a ratio of 1/91 my bet would be on AG not AU and in both physical and producers. Either AU has to come down a lot or AG is due for a big upward move. Which one will it be?

#80 meslippery on 06.24.19 at 11:22 am

If you haven’t seen the latest “The Investment Reporter”
Garth, you should.

#81 Dawn Devon on 06.24.19 at 11:44 am

Matti, when they force down out throat digital money like Facebook’s Libra and others and start giving UBI or some other free money to everyone with digits in a computer then all of our money will not be cheap but worthless.

Technology is their baby and it is for their manipulation and benefit, don’t forget that.

#82 kommykim on 06.24.19 at 11:49 am

RE: “There’s no way the US president – who takes the stock market as a proxy for his magnificence – is purposefully blowing this.”

I agree, but the man is an idiot who thinks he is a stable genius.

#83 Sail away on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm

#75 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

———————–

#46 Stan Brooks on 06.24.19 at 12:15 am

We are being ripped off by extremely aggressive predatory lending that increases credit and inflation with it, diluting deposits. In an automation/salary capped environment this is lethal.

———————–

I wouldn’t consider being able to borrow money for almost free to be a rip off.

Listen money is cheap, you can sit back and moan about your saving’s account producing nothing, or you can get in the game and put free money to work.

————————-

Agreed. If there’s ever been a time to borrow cheap money, now is it. If taken as a Heloc and invested, the interest is deductible, as mentioned many times by Garth.

These are the opportunities that create financial independence.

Example: a $100k, 5 year Heloc invested and earning 8% = $147k. Subtract interest costs for an approximate profit of $35k in 5 years.

The same scenario for 20 years yields $320k profit, because leverage. If done with $1M, you’ve now cleared $3.2M.

It’s just math. Look at it as an opportunity rather than another example of being screwed by the man, Stan.

#84 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm

#75 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

A boat that I covet, that was 50K 8 years ago sells for close to 90K today. The increase mostly being driven by easy credit, home equity. Should have bought one then, missed it, oh well.
___

Go and get that 8 year old boat of your dreams. Somewhere out there, there is a used example of said boat which has almost no hours on it, in like new condition; selling for 15-20K. Buy it and give thanks that the previous owner was the one who paid taxes on 50+K, and ate the 35+K in depreciation while handing you a boat that is essentially still new. The new boat buying experience ain’t worth $40K

My “new” 16 year old truck was this. Looks, smells, and drives like new. I get compliments on it from “truck guys” at the gas station. New price in ’03 was about 45K, I paid 10K. in 2017. A 2019 example of same would run about 55K.

#85 PastThePeak on 06.24.19 at 12:42 pm

#77 Captain Uppa on 06.24.19 at 11:15 am
Hey Garth, seems your uber rich elite friends don’t share your point of view on taxes. It seems they are begging for more taxes:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/billionaires-to-trump-and-other-2020-candidates-please-tax-us.html
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There is no need to solicit congress and the White House to implement laws to “tax us” -> anyone can give more money to their government, easy-peasy. Soros can donate anything he wants.

But the letter authors really still mean – tax “them”.

There may be a need for some higher taxes on the upper earners – reductions there was the biggest issue with the recent tax reform package (corp taxes needed to be reformed – not so much income taxes). However, claiming a “climate change emergency” is one way to make sure it isn’t going to happen.

#86 Peter on 06.24.19 at 12:58 pm

Your site needs a glossary. Dippers? Moisters?

#87 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:08 pm

#71 not 1st on 06.24.19 at 9:47 am
#61 Remembrancer on 06.24.19 at 7:46 am

Go back and look at the MSM coverage when that jobs report was released 2 months ago. It was on every lefty news outlet for days. Trudeau acolytes were crowing about it constantly. Except it wasn’t real. Statscan will revise it all some hot Friday afternoon in July.
___

The days of trusting a single MSM for objective non biased news reporting are long gone.

Look at this:
*
*
Canada Loses 31K full time jobs in May (Posted June 8 2019)

https://globalnews.ca/news/4262074/canada-may-2018-jobs-report/
*
*
*
*
Canada gains 30K jobs in May (Posted June 7 2019)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/may-jobs-statscan-1.5166200
*
*
Both “news” outlets are telling the truth, but only part of it. If you want the whole truth – well that is up to you to figure out. You either watch the data change over directly off of SC, or you read the same “news” from multiple outlets and stitch the pieces together.

#88 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 1:19 pm

#83 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm
#75 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

A boat that I covet, that was 50K 8 years ago sells for close to 90K today. The increase mostly being driven by easy credit, home equity. Should have bought one then, missed it, oh well.
___

Go and get that 8 year old boat of your dreams. Somewhere out there, there is a used example of said boat which has almost no hours on it, in like new condition; selling for 15-20K. Buy it and give thanks that the previous owner was the one who paid taxes on 50+K, and ate the 35+K in depreciation while handing you a boat that is essentially still new. The new boat buying experience ain’t worth $40K

My “new” 16 year old truck was this. Looks, smells, and drives like new. I get compliments on it from “truck guys” at the gas station. New price in ’03 was about 45K, I paid 10K. in 2017. A 2019 example of same would run about 55K.

————————————————————-

Nope, not these boats. Opposite has occurred – since new inventory has gone up, that 50K boat sells used, with 400 hours, for 70K. These are specialty rigs – 22′-26′ welded aluminum, pilot house boats with offshore brackets. Hewes Searunner as an example.

Trucks and fiberglass boats? Yes, I drive an older Dodge Ram that I bought for 50 cents on the dollar with only 50K KM’s on it.

The reason used trucks are so discounted is actually because of cheap and easy credit – for some folks it’s easier to lease or buy a 50K truck from the dealer then borrow 20K from the bank or god forbid save 20K to buy a truck. No one has cash, but the dealer will finance almost anyone.

#89 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:42 pm

#86 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:08 pm
__

Whoops got a year old article on the Global link.

So compare the CBC link I posted to the Reuters link not 1st posted which says Canada lost 16K jobs in may, and was posted June 20 2019.

Same deal, selective truth to suit the slant.

#90 Millennial on 06.24.19 at 1:52 pm

Garth, you should change your name to Oprah.
This soap opera you have here is really boring.

#91 James on 06.24.19 at 1:54 pm

#64 Smoking Man on 06.24.19 at 9:10 am

Why hasn’t Trump fired war hog Bolton yet. He better do it fast or lose 1/2 his base.
_____________________________________________
Because Old Man Trump only surrounds himself with the best people, who speak the best words, and have the best ideas. His pick Old Man, blame Trumps incompetence as a bumbling fool of a make believe fantasy president. You get what you deserve in life Old Man. You make be Canadian living in SoCal Old Man but just in case since you don’t actually understand American politics Bolton is a Hawk, he wants a line to be drawn and he wants Iran to cross it so he can teach them a lesson in spite of the fact that thousands if not millions could die as a result. Trump had Bolton’s dossier on his desk when he hired him and the Red Flags where printed in big bold letters in Crayon so the Orange Idiot could see them. So there you have it an idiot hired a Hawk! Well what do you know. Now deal with it, he’s your pick Old Man.

#92 jess on 06.24.19 at 1:55 pm

what happens when we can no longer trust information in our society?

====================

…”Owen points to a recent story that went viral on social media about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau apparently wanting to recruit one million new refugees from Nigeria.

The story was first posted by CBTV, what Owen describes as a “made-up” website that had been posting content from The Canadian Press wire service to appear legitimate.

“It was then posted into the Reddit community called r/The_Donald, which is a big right-wing Reddit community in the United States,” he says. “It was then posted to Facebook by a number of Yellow Vest accounts in Canada. It was then retweeted by some political commentators in Canada. And it took off. And of course it was entirely fake.”

For Owen, the vulnerability is in how the social media infrastructure is wired. Once a user engages with bogus content on social media platforms, algorithms allow similar material to appear in their feed.

“People who saw that post were most likely [those] who most wanted to see it and were most susceptible to the message. It’s reinforcing their existing biases, which are probably anti-Trudeau, potentially anti-immigration,” Owen says.

“That incident, in and of itself, isn’t the end of our democracy. But when you magnify it by a thousand times and it’s happening constantly, we’re getting to a point where we can no longer trust the information in our public sphere. And that, to me, is the real threat to democracy — what happens when we can no longer trust information in our society?”

Craig Silverman, a journalist with Buzzfeed, is credited with coining the phrase “fake news.” He warned in 2015 that Facebook’s news feed was spreading misinformation, and he travelled to Eastern Europe to trace where most of the content was being produced by a cluster of websites in Veles, a small town in Macedonia.

In Canada, Silverman has been watching the increase of anti-Trudeau content online, which he describes as a “booming industry” on Facebook.

The Buffalo Chronicle, has been a source of concern for interference watchers. It has recently dipped into the Canadian political scene, seizing on the SNC-Lavalin scandal earlier this year and boasting of several “scoops.” Although the site does contain factual content, some of its stories also contain significant flaws and falsehoods.

One story filed on March 11, for example, reported that Frank Iacobucci, a former puisne justice on the Supreme Court of Canada, was behind both the proposed deal for SNC-Lavalin and Ottawa’s decision to buy the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

Yet these supposed scoops had no bylines and almost no clearly defined sources.

According to The Buffalo Chronicle website, its address is 610 Ellicott Street in Buffalo, N.Y. But a CBC team from The National walked all along that city block and there was no sign of The Buffalo Chronicle or even a building bearing that address.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/the-national-election-interference-fake-news-social-media-1.5179838

#93 YVRman on 06.24.19 at 1:55 pm

Who buys a new truck or boat?
Haven’t you learned anything from garth is you don’t buy depreciating assets (especially with a loan).

#94 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:56 pm

#87 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 1:19 pm
#83 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm

Nope, not these boats.
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These look made domestically and very high quality, probably low production too. When it comes to stuff like that, you just gotta pay if you want it. No way around it. Probably worth it too if you’re going far out in big water.

I hear you on the financing. Right now there are a few companies out there that stock and finance USED atv’s. Like 35 bucks a week…

Good Grief.

#95 bdwy sktrn on 06.24.19 at 2:00 pm

Trucks and fiberglass boats?

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what do you see as the value in 2 or 3 or 4x price for alum over fiberglass?

i’m on the water (howe sound) weekly on a older 17′ fiberglass. i imagine that it will be solid 50 yrs after i’m dead.

i watched a neighbour on the island try to ‘dispose’ of an older similar hull. he was using an excavator. had to crush it about 50 times to make it crack, it would just bounce back to shape no matter how hard he’d smash it with the bucket. it was amazing to see and it sold me on fg, but i’m also a cheap bastard!

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gold miners hot today, strange….

#96 expat on 06.24.19 at 2:29 pm

Age old rule of real estate

Buy when people laugh at you for doing so
Sell when people laugh at you for doing so

We sold all of our properties 5 years ago. Long before the top. But after losing my shorts in Alberta 30 years ago as T1 ripped Alberta apart I learned my lesson.

When lineups were putting offers on houses it was easy to see the top was near.

I never guess bottoms or tops after 40 years and many jurisdictions… You buy and sell the range. It cost me a million bucks but the other millions made up for it…

IMHO – We are not anywhere near the bottom and that is the fact based on sales….

When you see auctioneers on the sidewalk that is your time to buy…..

Don’t laugh – My brother and I bought a whole block in Edmonton for 10 cents on the dollar after I lost my house and went bankrupt.

It was so bad then – the banks held mortgages locally I think because at the branch level many managers were going to lsoe their jobs if they didn’t liquidate the book.
They were foreclosing on everyone regardless of good payment history. My brother had to pay his mortgage off or lose it.. Luckily he didn’t have a big mortgage.

No one would even bid on these homes it was so bad…

We put in a crap bid and the manager took it…They even wrote the paper on it with my bankruptcy well known.

My point is – wait.

One more thing Gold is telegraphing something systemic… Time will tell what that is…
But there is a problem somewhere.
Some lazy Sunday afternoon we will find out as CNBC holds a special Sunday crisis show….

It won’t be markets in my opinion, I think it’ll be a structural govt bond issue or large corporation bond crisis….

These huge corps and govts have pigged out buying back their shares or funding govt programs without the revenue to support them (T2) with cheap debt. Some of these entities are insolvent if we dip into recession.

Govt will just wipe you out with tax increases…

#97 Crazyfox on 06.24.19 at 2:38 pm

The two biggest forces in the world right now – the Fed and Trump – don’t want one. – Garth

I agree with the fed. Trump? Not so much. Sure, Trump is quick to take credit for anything positive and brands himself as strong economically but when it comes to holding power, Trump can have recession and still keep power through war.

One would traditionally think politicians keep power through a good economy but this is not a traditional president. Is Trump willing to take the U.S. to war to keep power? He’s a sociopath, of course he would in a heart beat. We would be foolish to think he wouldn’t and he’s not alone. This latest, “I called off a military strike on Iran when I found out there will be 150 casualties, I didn’t think it was a proportionate response” line from Trump was simply Trump testing the war button, making sure it works and in grandiose fashion, weirdly taking credit for his every choice but its also a tell.

I will remind you of how Trump came into power. There are 2 ways in which this will go for Trump in 2020. One is, Trump tries to win the same way as last time, through Russian ops, some measure of rigged voting machines state by state, propaganda, yes, a good economy or “record” if one can call it that, hate, bigotry, division, populism, whatever works as long as Trump and Republican Senate wins and if the numbers and estimated success is not there, the other way is through war.

If its war, we can expect a war with Iran next year 3 to 6 months from an election coinciding with an escalated trade war with China that has the potential to spin the world into a recession timed for effect. Just as all of this goes down, we can expect Trump to withdraw from NATO, a move congress can’t block. If the election looks like it will be the end of Republican senate/presidential power we could see strange moves like the end to Senate veto power in order to pass a wartime elections act that postpones elections over wartime and a rewrite of the War powers resolution:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution

Sadly, if there’s one thing that unites Americans, its war. If the Republicans can’t win an election, they’ll play the war card to stay in power. The question is, do they have enough votes in the senate to expand presidential war powers. Here’s what Lindsey Graham said recently to justify war with Iran:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eptGBWOWF44

Just listen to what Graham had to say there, its telling. “Israel will be forced to strike Iran as a last resort and we will come to their aid”, should Iran continue nuclear research at some point, in context. Yes, forced to “pre-emptive strike.

A drone was shot down in international air space by Iran, a claim that Iran says was true except for the international airspace part and an empty Japanese tanker was attacked by Iran according to the U.S., with no proof. First Pompeo said it was a mine when Japan claimed it was a missile fired from the direction of Saudi Arabia. Truth or false flag op, who do you believe?

A quick look at a map should tell us that plans for war preparation with Iran has been in the works for some time now.

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/11/05/5f/11055fd2ff9efd0064a6ee00f6bafaf9.jpg

One has to ask though, with the future of electric cars having the potential to bite hard into light crude consumption in the coming years coupled with U.S. oil production at 12 million BOE’s pd and growing, plans for a resource war with Iran are already out of date?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

For a climate change denying, green tech slow rolling corrupt sociopath president 20 years behind the times and beholden to foreign powers, apparently not. For his oil sponsored, war hawk, power hungry, corrupt, special interest led Republican friends, apparently not either. We can hope for the best, but I expect the worst.

#98 MaxBerniersShorts on 06.24.19 at 2:48 pm

#72 45north
Strong centralization wasn’t a strong civil service tendency in this case. It was Harpers desire to control everything that led to disasters like Shared Services and Phoenix.

#99 Information Problems on 06.24.19 at 3:09 pm

#91 Jess – I looked at the Buffalo scenario long ago, and when there is threat of the truth it must be debunked. The CBC themselves have created reality in the past, and were caught. In order to ascertain truth from false one needs to apply a different methodology, and have done so. I am satisfied with the results.

#100 MF on 06.24.19 at 3:27 pm

86 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:08 pm

First one is from May 2018. There’s the difference.

Not 1st: thanks for the reply. That second report is a adp payroll report, not a survey like the stat can one. We can debate about the merits of one vs another but the fact is the mag report was positive regardless.

MF

#101 Sail away on 06.24.19 at 3:34 pm

#87 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 1:19 pm
#83 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm
#75 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

A boat that I covet, that was 50K 8 years ago sells for close to 90K today.

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Go and get that 8 year old boat of your dreams.

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Nope, not these boats. Opposite has occurred – since new inventory has gone up, that 50K boat sells used, with 400 hours, for 70K.

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I get it- a boat of your own is very nice. Until you start factoring in the survey, maintenance, storage, equipment, insurance, and etc. etc.

I’ve had many boats but now in my early middle age am very happy to charter for $1,000/day salmon and halibut, $800/day sturgeon, or $2,000/day for tuna. That gets 4-5 people a full day of productive fishing with a top-notch guide and zero maintenance or commitments at the end of the trip.

For a fisherman especially, this may not be the greatest time to buy a boat with the first-ever DFO chinook closure. Now the precedent has been set.

#102 TheDood on 06.24.19 at 3:35 pm

#87 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 1:19 pm
#83 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 12:37 pm
#75 Mattl on 06.24.19 at 10:35 am

………..Nope, not these boats. Opposite has occurred – since new inventory has gone up, that 50K boat sells used, with 400 hours, for 70K. These are specialty rigs – 22′-26′ welded aluminum, pilot house boats with offshore brackets. Hewes Searunner as an example………

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Never understood why anyone in Canada would buy a boat. I mean, we are a winter country, there is snow on the ground and ice on the water 5-7 months of EVERY year. If customers actually took the time to organize/collude and backed off from buying, prices would come crashing down in a hurry. People are too easily sucked in with marketing / propoganda and are in such a rush to buy.

#103 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 3:39 pm

#99 MF on 06.24.19 at 3:27 pm
86 IHCTD9 on 06.24.19 at 1:08 pm

First one is from May 2018. There’s the difference.
___

See post #88

Same thing. No diff.

#104 Keyboard Smasher on 06.24.19 at 3:46 pm

Millennial making less than high six figures writing to Garth?

Fake news.

#105 Barb on 06.24.19 at 5:07 pm

Speaking of China (here and there), this came to light yesterday in The Province newspaper.

Seems China is (and has been) sponsoring ($$) British Columbia’s annual Union of British Columbia Municipalities wine and dine the bureaucrats/mayors annual event.

I think it’s disgusting, especially with China refusing Canadian ag/pork products, and their tiff with T2 over Canada’s arrest of Ms. Meng. Plus the 2 “detained” Canadians…

Pay for access is alive and well.
B.C.’s NDP learned that from the last guys…the Liberals.

Agree entirely with Mayor West’s view.

#106 Randy O'connell on 06.24.19 at 7:39 pm

Socialists and hard lefties, Liberals, NDPer’s, Greens , democrats beware! Zimbabwe is trying issue its own currency again and is already failing as it’s value is not 6.2 to buy a U.S. dollar as government officials stated but at 11 to 12 to buy a U.S. dollar.

Since 2008, it failed many times and U.S. dollars, South African Rands are not going to be used as official legal tender as of Monday by the new government since ousting Mugabe. See what the richest country in Africa back in 2000 becomes an economic basket case by socialism. Hyperinflation of 500 billion %.

Venezuela happened the same way being the richest in South America and now is wiped out by hyperinflation. Bernie Sanders says it is different with them, Democrats or whatever party they use, it is democratic socialism. It is all a bunch of bull. It does not work and will never work. They are taking advantage of people that are not educated and not informed about history and teh dire consequences that come with it.

It is not political Bernie, socialists, lefties, it’s the economy stupid. It is how the economy is run and economic freedom, trade, capital formation. I am so glad my children did not go to university.

#107 F1 on 06.24.19 at 11:32 pm

Your no gold advice is a joke. Why do you hate it so much? If you truly want a balance portfolio 5-10 percent should be in precious metals. Think of it as free insurance which has stood the test of time (thousands of years). To mention it together with bitcoin and junior oil stocks is a joke

Gold is insurance against nothing. – Garth